April 16, 2006

Condo Flippers Look For The Greater Fool In Orange Co.

The Orange County Register found some people still engaged in condo flipping. “Marcel Bruetsch is asking $1.295 million for his two-bedroom condo in Irvine, that’s 40 percent more than he paid for it three months ago. Bruetsch is one of about 70 owners of condos in two Irvine towers who are selling or renting out units they just bought. That total is about one-third of all 232 units Bosa Development finished in January.”

“Bosa is the first developer to finish a luxury tower in Orange County, and real estate experts are watching how many people move in. Developers are anxious to see how much demand there is for high-rise living, since they are building or planning 42 more towers in Irvine, Anaheim, Santa Ana and Costa Mesa.”

“The number of investors in Bosa’s towers is higher than he expected, Bruetsch said. ‘A lot of people had the same idea I did,’ said Bruetsch.”

“Investors selling Bosa units in Irvine are asking from $775,000 to $2.75 million. That’s a big jump from Bosa’s initial prices of $550,000 to $1.8 million. ‘I don’t think they will achieve those prices,’ sales director Dennis Serraglio said. ‘But the market will set where those prices should be.’”

“David Smithson is asking $2.195 million for his penthouse unit at 3131 Michelson Drive. He paid $1.56 million. Agents of other owners have called his agent asking him to raise his asking price, Smithson said. His price is right for now, Smithson said, since high-rise living is new and will take a while to catch on. And there are too many units for sale to ask more, he said.”

“Besides, the housing market isn’t what it used to be, he said. ‘It seems like real estate has hit a lull,’ Smithson said. ‘The market generally has slowed down.’ Whenever he visits the tower it feels empty, he said. His guess is only half the units are occupied, he said.”

“Jack Quinn said he bought a resale unit in March on the third floor for $759,000. Quinn said he has moved in and sees few other residents in the parking lot or hallways. He guesses only one-third of the project is occupied. ‘It’s good because I don’t really have any neighbors,’ Quinn said.”

“Veronica Hicks, an agent in Irvine, said the number of units for resale should increase as Bosa closes escrow on the final units in its second tower. Some investors will have to slash their prices, but Hicks said she’s not expecting them to lose money. ‘The prices in there have been absolutely all over the place,’ Hicks said.”

“The biggest obstacles to sales are the homeowners’ association dues, typically more than $1,000 a month, Hicks said.”




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118 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-04-16 15:01:17

‘Agents of other owners have called his agent asking him to raise his asking price, Smithson said.’

A stark example of ’sellers agents’, I suppose.

Comment by crispy&cole
2006-04-16 15:02:44

I thought collusion and price fixing was illegal?

Comment by arizonadude
2006-04-16 15:21:24

Put the sob’s in jail. Who are the greater fools who keep paying thse ridiculous prices?

Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-04-16 16:24:13

Who are the stupid lenders lending in the project ?

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Comment by Lou Minatti
2006-04-16 17:38:58

That’s the first thing I thought of as well. This should be investigated by the local DA’s office.

Comment by Sunsetbeachguy
2006-04-16 18:45:37

No way in hell the local DAs gonna do anything.

He and the Sherriff are as crooked as they come in OC.

In OC we like our governments Republican and corrupt.

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Comment by zipost
2006-04-16 20:27:34

You got that right!

 
Comment by UnRealtor
2006-04-17 08:53:36

In OC we like our governments Republican and corrupt.

Because everyone knows only Republicans are corrupt. NOT.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/whitewater/whitewater.htm

Please leave politics at the door, it just pollutes the blog.

 
Comment by SunsetBeachGuy
2006-04-17 11:21:51

I agree they are all corrupt.

It just so happens the specifically Orange County, CA prefers them to be Republican.

 
 
 
Comment by mrincomestream
2006-04-16 19:44:28

That’s a bit of a stretch don’t you think. Questionable practice, yes.

 
Comment by montie
2006-04-17 06:52:43

It depends on the extent of the collusion. If we are talking about collusion in one crappy tower with many alternatives, it is not illegal. However, if we are talking about all the real estate in an area, it is illegal.

Realtors should be careful here. Jail and antitrust damages can hurt.

 
 
Comment by HerdChemist
2006-04-17 03:24:25

Hey….

“Why don’t we have my agent call your agent and we can see if I want to buy the condo that you want to sell.”

This says it all. It totally describes the fluff-puffery and worthlessness that the “agent” represents. People don’t need other people to hold their hands when transacting RE anymore.

The days of the Realtors(tm) are nearing an end.

Comment by Jim
2006-04-17 06:04:11

Yes HC!
If the offer is so low why doesn’t the one of the other seller’s agents “scoop it up”! And the $1,000 /mo. HOA fees! What are they feeding those polo ponies?

 
 
 
Comment by Boombust
2006-04-16 15:18:32

David Smithson et al can “ask” whatever they like. We’ll just “see” what happens.

 
Comment by John Law
2006-04-16 15:23:20

( His price is right for now, Smithson said, since high-rise living is new and will take a while to catch on. And there are too many units for sale to ask more, he said.”)

do we need to point out which of those justification is relevant?

 
Comment by Sunsetbeachguy
2006-04-16 15:25:37

Collusion is one of the suprises that will come out of this bubble.

Not much will be proven and very few perp walks but it will be common knowledge that RE agents and brokers were also speculators in the very same markets they were representing someone else.

All OC bubble believers including you Melody should put a posting or two on the OC Register RE blog pointing to the disconnected fundamentals of RE. Let the readers make their own decision. In other words you can lead a horse to water but you cannot make them drink.

Comment by waaahoo
2006-04-16 15:32:18

Very true. I’ve always said that anything that makes it to the MLS around here has already been bought and marked up by a realtor. One project I worked on the realtor advising the owner on pricing was at the same time buying units with straw buyers. Thankfully he think he is getting squeezed now that things have turned.

 
 
Comment by rudekarl
2006-04-16 15:25:37

Too funny. I’m just wondering who the next fools are that would pay anything to live in that place. You would have to drop in from outer space, do absolutely no research and have a spaceship full of cash to be so naive as to buy in that glorified apartment building. What a complete joke. This has got to be yet, another shining example of how completely insane folks are in California.

By the way, Earth to Jack Quinn - you are officially The Dumbest Mofo of the Day. Don’t worry Jackie, some other fool is waiting to give away a million dollars tomorrow and take your place. Me thinks the dunce cap industry has great growth potential in the years to come.

Comment by Upstater
2006-04-17 06:06:42

Hey Rudekarl
Just heard about friend of mil. Brought her photo cd over to mil’s house cuz she couldn’t view it at her own. The photos were of the beautiful $2 mil Manhatten home her son had just put an offer on. Apparently there were some issues in the inspection.

When wide eyed, I said that was probably the best thing that could happen to him as it would not be good to buy at the top of the bubble, I was informed that he was a very intelligent, successful businessman and should have a good feel for the market. I suppose just being a person that sat around and read blog info…I wouldn’t have a clue.

 
 
Comment by Scott
2006-04-16 15:25:59

Jack Quinn said he bought a resale unit in March on the third floor for $759,000. Quinn said he has moved in and sees few other residents in the parking lot or hallways. He guesses only one-third of the project is occupied. ‘It’s good because I don’t really have any neighbors,’ Quinn said.

I think a statement like this typifies the average yuppie/FB. Isn’t a home supposed to be where you live, where you socialize with your neighbors, where you raise your family? This guy sounds delightfully sterile and cold. (Hopefully his sentiment stems from pas experience; maybe at his last place he was surrounded by “neighbors from hell.”)

Comment by SD Jim
2006-04-16 17:36:58

Worse than that Scott, he doesn’t realize that while having no neighbors may be great, in a high-rise condo complex, that’s death for his “investment”.

Comment by Claudia
2006-04-17 01:40:14

Well, it doesn’t say he bought it to resell it — so maybe he just wants to live in it!

What a wild idea!!!!

Comment by Scott
2006-04-17 07:14:58

But if you wanted to live in it, wouldn’t you want neighbors? Seems kind of sterile to want to live somewhere in isolation.

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Comment by leewhee
2006-04-17 13:25:52

Take a look at that building. The decorated units on the website look like corporate hospitality suites. The building itself is right on the Interstate. There won’t be any families or “real” people living here. The units will likely be bought by multinational corps located in OC to house flyboy execs who stay for a few weeks/months at a time. It’s a glorified Extended Stay America. Maybe there’s a need for $1M+ corp exec condos in OC. I don’t know. But this is anything but a place for folks to live.

 
 
Comment by Surffroggy
2006-04-16 15:26:29

Can a condo development get by with only 1/3 of the units occupied? Do the owners of the empty units still have to pay HOA fees?

Comment by stjoe
2006-04-16 15:31:21

HOA must be paid by the owner regardless of whether the unit is occupied.

Comment by Surffroggy
2006-04-16 15:33:07

HOA fees are near $1,000 a month per unit too. Thats beyond insane!

Comment by Ted
2006-04-16 17:19:39

Some told me this condo includes maid service and laundry in that HOA.

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Comment by SB BubbleBeliever
2006-04-16 19:44:06

At those kind of fees… what kind of maid service?? ;)

 
Comment by Dont know nothing about buyin no house
2006-04-17 10:23:30

At those kind of fees… what kind of maid service??

mooo hahahahaha!

 
 
Comment by OutofSanDiego
2006-04-17 05:47:03

$1000 a month sounds outrageous to us “normal” folks, but is about normal for these type of high priced luxury units. I live in Miami right now and have seen the same type of fees…even on units that run around 400-500K. I considered living at the beach in one, but it was those monthly fees that killed the deal for me. You are paying for the doorman, high rise window washers, tons of common area maintenance, insurance, etc. The costs are a lot higher than a “normal” type condo. Flippers of these units can rot.

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Comment by steinravnik
2006-04-17 10:27:22

The thing is, these units may be perfectly in reach of the top earning 1% of this country, but the way they have been throwing these things up, you would think we were all millionaires. Fact is, there are simply not enough people making enough money to buy all these condos. Laws of economics will catch up soon enough.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Surffroggy
2006-04-16 15:31:42

Nevermind. Please disregard my question above. Of course the owner has to still pay the HOA fees. Its just so difficult to understand these flippers paying those HOA’s, taxes, and the mortgage payments on empty nests. Unreal!

Comment by OutofSanDiego
2006-04-17 05:48:39

They (the flippers) were expecting to flip their units at closing before getting stuck with any monthly fees. Ha, ha, ha…

 
 
Comment by stjoe
2006-04-16 20:05:47

Owners of empy units must still pay HOA

 
Comment by loonofficer
2006-04-17 07:20:52

Worse: If all the units are not sold (let alone occupied) the budgeting for the HOA then becomes the burden of the existing owners. That $1,000/mo HOA fee is probably based on all the units being sold. If many of them aren’t sold each of the existing occupants’ fees will increase to offset the shortfall.
That’s really gonna hurt if it happens.

Comment by dennis
2006-04-17 08:42:12

GOOD POINT……..

 
 
 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2006-04-16 15:30:21

A few days back some whiney hiney-hole was wagging his finger at those of us who gleefully exult as we contemplate the spectacle of flippers, speculators, and garden-variety idiots getting their heads handed to them. Sir, if you’re reading this, I make no apology for celebrating the fiscal wipe-out of these greedy, grasping Bubbleonians or doing a lowballer’s end-zone dance among the ruins of their dreams of effortless, obscene profits.

Comment by txchick57
2006-04-16 15:33:27

Ain’t that the truth. I doubt I’ll be going to hell anytime soon for wishing Marcus a quick trip to the bankruptcy court, which I wholeheartedly do. Greedy SOB.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-04-17 05:14:54

You tell ‘em Sammy

 
 
Comment by Brian
Comment by Brian
2006-04-16 15:41:44

Forgot to mention that the link is sort of OT, but I thought it was a little related because it shows you what a “luxury condo” looks like on the inside.

 
Comment by Lou Minatti
2006-04-16 18:51:21

It’s old news here, Brian. But it is still funny as hell. That page is a classic.

 
Comment by shel
2006-04-16 19:54:30

oh, thanks for posting that! I found it very entertaining and educational…what was “up” (with) “Belinda’s” pants?! :lol:

Comment by SB BubbleBeliever
2006-04-16 19:59:30

Shel,

I think it’s a
“negative am/interest only option ARM Chastity Belt”, if I had to guess…

 
Comment by jim A
2006-04-17 06:26:20

They’re the checkered flag at the finish line, cause if you buy you’re F***’d

 
 
Comment by Upstater
2006-04-17 06:23:11

I REALLY enjoyed those photos…especially the chick w/the sprayed on pants that looked like her thong was on the outside. Yikes!

 
Comment by Doug_home
2006-04-17 09:54:44

My brother lives in a 90% vacant SFH development in FLA. Desperate developer has staged the neighborhood by putting curtains in the vacant houses( front windows only) , parked rented cars in driveways and left Kids bikes on front lawns(stolen within a week)

 
Comment by Max
2006-04-17 13:03:35

I love it! Next time I will surely pay a visit, if the admission is free. D-cup size chicks, music, Smirnoff - count me in!

 
Comment by Max
2006-04-17 13:06:53

But damn those condos are ugly. Whoever designed those should be raped by a gang of longshoremen.

 
 
Comment by pw
2006-04-16 15:36:47

from what i’ve been told, the units (around 230) have all been sold by the developer and all or nearly all have are now in the hands of the new purchasors (units started closing in mid january of this year).

per the MLS, about 67 of the units are now available for resale and 31 are available for rent.

 
Comment by David
2006-04-16 15:46:47

“David Smithson is asking $2.195 million for his penthouse unit at 3131 Michelson Drive. He paid $1.56 million. Agents of other owners have called his agent asking him to raise his asking price,”

Let these agent pigs get slaughtered.

David
http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com

 
Comment by The Learning Man
2006-04-16 16:01:44

This is the strangest think I have ever seen. I have lived in the OC for over 15 years, and used to work in Irvine when I was an auditor. So I have seen hundreds of payroll records from multi-billion to multi-million dollar companies. It is very RARE and I mean RARE to see anyone making the kind of money needed to afford these type of prices. Unless the person inherited the cash or won the lottery for a huge downpayment. The only people who could technically afford these types of prices are the CEOs or major stockholders of these companies. But most of them are old men who are as conservative as you can get. Most of these folk would NEVER live in a “glorified” apartment. This looks like the biggest PONZI scheme. If I was a betting man, I would bet every dollar I have that this housing bubble will collapse like nothing anyone has ever seen before, and I hope and wish that these greedbag investors will end up in the poor house.

Comment by dennis
2006-04-16 21:50:25

I am with you on this scheme. I have lived in Irvine and work here and it is discusting to see these RE agents fish in these waters. If this is not the top of the market and ever market has a top then we are still in trouble. What I cannot figure out is where all of these stupid buyers are coming from.

 
Comment by Claudia
2006-04-17 01:52:54

Most people who live in SoCal can’t afford a $600,000 house — so I think the whole area is just one big huge bubble! Fortunately, in a lot of areas, people bought a long time ago so they aren’t looking at an option ARM or a $600,000 mortgage. It’s only the buyers/investors that have purchased or “released their trapped equity” over the last few years. They are the ones that are really going to be hurt.

If everyone were in on this Ponzi scheme, I could see houses falling back to $60K. :)

 
Comment by asuwest2
2006-04-17 06:22:23

Glad the OC R finally picked up at least a little on this. All you gotta do to figure out there’s a problem here is to drive by at night. 70-80% of the building is dark. Ah, but it makes parking so much easier.

As to others comments about earthquakes, it should be noted that the complex is VERY close to the current wetlands area. I’m a thinkin….can you spell
L _ I _ Q _ U_ E _ F _ A _ C _ T _ I _ O _ N ?

That’s were the soil turns to quicksand during shaking.

 
Comment by octal77
2006-04-17 06:56:00

I drive by those 2 towers everyday on the way to work and back.

I have never seen more than a few
lights turned on and some appear to be work lights at that.

From what I understand, the CCR’s prohbit pets and
BBQ’s on your ‘porch’. God knows what else.

For those not familiar with OC, close in views are of the 405
freeway and adjacent high rise office towers.

To be fair, the far views are probably pretty nice, but its
possible to find better/equivalent views in nearby Turtle Rock.

I just can imagine anyone wanting to live in those units, let
alone paying thru the nose for the priviledge.

Absolutely, totally, wacko.

 
 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2006-04-16 16:10:17

I guess that these speculavestors there in Clownifornia can pay $1000 HOA/mortgage because they are going to make $600K when they sell the stupid apartment (so they think). I would love to hear the story of these idiots in belly-up court because they couldn’t find a bigger fool.

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2006-04-16 16:13:03

Why would some idiots pay $1000 HOA on top of a mortgage when they can rent something equivalent in the same general area for $1500 or less (depending on place)? I believe OCKurt said he has $1500 rent and has an ocean view.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-04-16 16:25:45

Does anyone know what you get for the 1K month HOA.?

Comment by arizonadude
2006-04-16 17:01:47

A full service?

Comment by mrincomestream
2006-04-16 21:45:07

For a grand a month that better include a happy ending

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Comment by Rainman18
2006-04-16 19:45:37

Does anyone know what you get for the 1K month HOA.?

I think it includes a resident Condo Crisis Counselor that makes the rounds and talks suicidal FB’s off of their balconies. Or an on site pet spa, I can’t remember which.

 
 
 
Comment by pw
2006-04-16 16:16:27

there are about 31 units in this development available for rent (through the MLS) from $2,695 per month for 1,275sf to $6,900 per month for a 2,000sf upper floor unit. pets not welcome.

Comment by crash1
2006-04-16 19:57:36

$6900/month? 2,000 square feet?

 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-04-16 16:31:42

Why do flippers think they can always double the price of what they paid for a property after they close escrow ,or within three months ? I don’t get it . I have never seen anything like this .

Comment by SB BubbleBeliever
2006-04-16 19:48:01

Because these dickheads saw all of their friends do it for the past few years. Don’t mean it happenin’ this year. Hang in there Housing Wiz. :)

 
Comment by mrincomestream
2006-04-16 19:51:52

Yea, this is somewhat amazing. I’m also questioning why someone would want too pay that much for something like that when the ground shakes as much as it does. I can kind of see it on the East Coast but here it’s baffling. I mean for what they are offering you can still get an sfr in those areas for those prices in those area’s. And 1000.00 for an HOA is complete nonsense

 
Comment by Claudia
2006-04-17 02:07:57

I have a business and I sell “unusual & rare” items — not real estate. To compare my business to real estate, I would be selling custom built homes versus tract homes. Part of what I sell is jewelry made of silver and gold.

I’ve hiked all my prices. I used to give liberal discounts. I stopped doing that. Why? Buyers obviously are *pretty* stupid, aren’t they? Why should I give discounts on rare items when homeowners are marking up plain old regular homes? My items appreciate too! I haven’t been questioned about my *firm* pricing yet, but I would certainly tell anyone that I have a mortgage to pay! (LOL LOL! I rent!) I do get a lot of sob stories asking for huge discounts. I just ignore them. Things are rough all over.

At some point the value of labor and the value of homes are going to get back in sync. I feel like I am just doing my little part in helping that.

 
 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2006-04-16 16:38:46

They probably think that because there’s always been a Bigger Fool to take it off there hands. Only in this case, ol’ Marcus may find the music has stopped and all the chairs are filled. Come May or June, he’s going to be as nervous as a six-year-old at the Neverland Ranch.

 
Comment by rudekarl
2006-04-16 16:41:30

OT: More Condo/Hotel nonsense in nutty SW Florida. They’re still converting dumpy, second-rate little hotels into places that folks can piss away a few hundred thousand dollars. This one isn’t even close to the beach. Sounds like a great idea, especially now that SFH and regular condos are hitting the market at record pace.

http://tinyurl.com/qnovq

You’ve got to hand it to these folks - every other week they come up with a new way to seperate fools from their money. I especially like the idea of this being a place to “…stash company from out of town.” I think it’s a great place for a meth lab, but then again, I want my real estate to have the potential for making me some money, too.

Comment by waitingitout
2006-04-16 19:13:21

I live in SW Florida and a meth lab in a hotel/apt conversion is not far from the truth. I know of two apt conversions that have switched back to apts due to lack of purchase. I’m not sure what happened to the few people who bought, but I’m sure they got screwed in some way.

 
Comment by jim A
2006-04-17 06:04:54

Since the people paying these prices have been smoking crack, perhaps switching to meth from the next door neighbors might save them some money.

Comment by Doug_home
2006-04-17 10:01:34

$100.00 of cocaine/crack good for a evening,$100.00 in Meth and you can tweak all week

 
 
 
Comment by ocrenter
2006-04-16 16:55:15

Marquee tower condo only renting for $2700, with $1000 going toward HOA, that leaves $1700 to cover for mortgage. Assuming a purchase price of $700,000 at 5% ARM, 0 down, that’s $2000 down per month. of course, this is the best case senario. Imagine someone buying at $1mil at 6.5%.

Comment by Melody
2006-04-16 19:54:08

I do NOT like contemporary…. I think it’s uptight and ugly.

 
Comment by dreaming 07
2006-04-17 04:44:34

Wow, zebrawood…hope not too many zebras were harmed.

 
 
Comment by Betamax
2006-04-16 16:58:47

Particularly interesting to me is that Bosa, the developer, is a Canadian company trying to make it big in the US. Bosa is one of the bigger condo developers here in Vancouver, where we tend to be more accepting of condo living. However, even to us, the recent spate of increasingly small yet increasingly high-priced condos is seeming more and more ludicrous.

Bosa was recently described on a local RE forum as a builder which “ironically” marketed its developments as “high quality”, suggesting a significant disconnect between marketing and reality. Heresay, of course, but no one argued with his assessment.

Comment by Claudia
2006-04-17 02:39:42

I don’t think the problem in SoCal has anything to do with “condo living”… I think the problem is with “high-rise.” With earthquakes, I don’t know that I would want to live up high. Not only that, after Northridge I remember them saying that the high-rises had performed as intended: They are only designed to allow people to get out of them. They are not designed to withstand an earthquake. If everyone gets out alive, the high-rise is a success!!

I remember going to see people who were being forced to move so their condos could be “rehabilitated” in Sherman Oaks after the Northridge earthquake. They had to pay for that rehabilitation which is not part of the HOA and most buildings in Southern California don’t carry earthquake insurance because it has a high deductible and it doesn’t cover very much. So, it’s a lot of money to put out at one time — to have your condo (and everyone else’s) rehabilitated. Most condos in Sherman Oaks weren’t over three stories high. They all looked horrendous.

Imagine a multi-million dollar condo in an earthquake. You barely get out with your life and then you are on the hook for $$$$$$$ to get the building back in shape…

Yeah. On some other planet.

 
 
Comment by Boombust
2006-04-16 17:30:40

Betamax,

I live in Vanocuver and condo living “au metropole” is not an option for me. Too, shall we say, “cramped”?

 
Comment by The Learning Man
2006-04-16 17:50:54

Brian, that was funny stuff. I really like the bit about the RE bitch, Belinda.

 
Comment by skipintro
2006-04-16 18:13:29

Don’t know if this was discussed on the board; I was down in LA last week. The LA Times reported that, based on Dataquick information, LA county joined the “500 Club” when the median home price there rose above $500,000 in March, a 15% increase year over year from last March, and a 3% increase from the prior month.

The Times reports that to buy a house in LA at the median price, a household would need an annual income of at least $120,000 to qualify for conventional financing with a 20% down payment, yet the median household income in LA county is about $47,000.

The article concluded with a short quote from UCLA economist Christopher Thornberg, who concluded that “prices aren’t likely to fall this time around.” Sounds like he’s done just about a one-eighty in his prognostications.

Comment by Claudia
2006-04-17 03:09:27

The only houses on the MLS for under $500K are in bad areas and they are really tiny to boot. Big houses in bad areas are way over $500K.

Seriously.

If you want to live in a decent area, it’s going to cost a whole lot more than $500K.

Obviously, the only ones who can afford this are “investors.”

 
 
Comment by Melody
2006-04-16 18:39:49

Read about Orange County Real Estate Guide.

I didn’t realize they were still building like crazy… geesh.

 
Comment by waitingitout
2006-04-16 19:19:58

Attached is a 3 page article from the standard weekly discussing the housing bubble. I saw it as I passed the magazine section in the bookstore. I really don’t know what that magazine’s audience is, but it’s informative for those people who do not read this blog. I’m always surprised at the amount of people who do not know that the market has “slowed”, let alone the fact that a major recession is about to happenl.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/012/053ajgwr.asp

Comment by crispy&cole
2006-04-16 19:24:01

I really don’t know what that magazine’s audience is:

Extreme right wing crowd.

 
Comment by Melody
2006-04-16 19:32:17

Great article… thanks :)

 
Comment by waaahoo
2006-04-16 19:44:41

Waiting I was hired by some guys to put finishing touches on modular homes they had delivered. It didn’t take long to figure out that these guys were totally clueless about economics / interest rates / supply and demand. I mean even basic stuff. They are like farmers planting in the fall. Even now, when facts are staring them in the face they believe that somehow their little backwoods projects are going to be immune from any type of slowdown. When I asked why they didn’t pre-sell their homes before taking on any risk they looked at me like I was the idiot and said because you lose money that way. Took me a bit to figure out that what they meant is that they wouldn’t make as much if they pre-sold them. They don’t even understand “Bird in the Hand” economics.

Comment by mrincomestream
2006-04-16 19:55:35

Those modular homes are starting to gain a little steam here in California. Would you happen to know how the banks look at them. Do they look at them like trailers or actual stick and brick.

Comment by SB BubbleBeliever
2006-04-16 20:04:21

Mr. Income Stream,

I was on vacation last summer in Oregon. Up there, it is law that they have to advertise one of these things as “manufactured home”, even if they take it off it’s wheel base and put it on a standard foundation. No stick and brick. Cheap pieces o’ Sh!t… anyway you look at ‘em.

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Comment by mrincomestream
2006-04-16 21:58:31

Yea, I had a business op presented to me where the houses are made in a factory trucked in from Canada or somewhere at 65k a pop the guy wanted to buy dirt and sell each one for 700k back behind Malibu. It sounded pretty profitable. But I was wondering how someone was going to finance that being that it was virtually a trailer IMO. Nevermind that I thought someone would have to be on crack to pay 700k for it. But he assured me folks were doing this with these types of homes. He was trying to convince me there was a difference between manufactored and modular as far as financing. Because modular was built in a factory to be put on foundations. Too me a trailer is a trailer is a trailer. I didn’t get the concept I passed. My rule of thumb is never invest in something you dont understand. And on top of that the ones I saw that were actually on the ground weren’t that appealing which confirmed my crack theory.

 
 
Comment by crash1
2006-04-16 20:08:31

Those are pretty popular in my little piece of backwoods. As long as they’re set up permanently on a foundation on a real piece of property they are considered the same as stick and brick. A lot of them around here are just propped up on concrete blocks.

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Comment by Mozo Maz
2006-04-16 20:10:24

If an appraiser says it’s equivalent to a stick built house, the loan officer and realtors get their commission. Look. Appraisers know how to do their jobs. Now, butt out of this, we’re busy making money….

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Comment by House Inspector Clouseau
2006-04-17 04:51:52

Modular homes are DIFFERENT than manufactured homes (also called mobile homes).

Modular homes are built in a factory, yet must meet all codes for regular SFH homes. In fact, Modular homes are often of BETTER quality than site-built SFHs, because they are built under controlled settings (don’t have rain and muck and stuff getting everywhere due to the harsh elements). And also because all of the contractors, etc are in-house and it’s a lot easier to coordinate everything.

The modular homes are thus treated as a regular SFH by everybody, because they ARE regular SFHs

Modular homes can be off a set design, or can be custom made, just like site-built homes.

I’ve been in multi-million dollar modular homes, I went through them with a builder (a friend of mine, owns one of the largest building companies in all of Kansas). He said they were of awesome construction.

Modular is NOT Manufactured (manufactured is the other name for a “mobile” home).

Just thought you might be interested.

Here’s a site explaining the difference:
http://homebuying.about.com/cs/modulareducation/
a/modularhomes.htm

Clouseau

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Comment by Jim
2006-04-17 06:32:55

Thanks for the info Inspector. Of course the modular home is like a mobile home in that they both arrive at the site with dead bugs on the siding (not unlike the front bumper of my pickup truck)!

 
Comment by Nicholas Weaver
2006-04-17 10:39:59

Theres also a huge difference in the zoning process and rules…

Manufactured or mobile are a federal standard: its all the same (and all cheap-ass @)#$(*). If the zoning allows it, the city really has no say on what it is manufacturing wise. But the loan terms take this into account (manufactured/mobile you can only get 15 year mortgages on generally).

Modular has to meet with the LOCAL zoning code. Which is part of the expense-upping cost of modular vs manufactured. But its also why MODULAR can get classed as the same as site-build: it is mechanically equivelent.

Also, modular can often be a whole range, from pre-fabricated large modules to a fair amount of assemble-on-site of large pieces.

 
 
Comment by hd74man
2006-04-17 14:10:31

If they come in on wheels with a steel undercarriage they are a mobile home.

If they come in on a flatbed truck, and are lifted onto a prepared foundation with a crane they are regarded as stick built.

Corrupt appraisers sometimes can’t get it straight though…

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Comment by SoCalMtgGuy
2006-04-18 14:36:18

Modular homes are NOT mobile homes. Modular homes are when the pieces are put together elsewhere, and brought on site. Lenders look at modular homes as SFR’s (single family residences) like any other house. It can be next to impossible to distinguish a modular home from a site built home. I have seen some impressive appraisals that were ‘modular’ homes. I wouldn’t have guessed they were modular in a million years. There are also many different levels in quality as well…just like a regular home.

Mobile homes…even on ‘permanent’ foundation are NOT eligible with most lenders.

SoCalMtgGuy

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Comment by shel
2006-04-16 20:15:40

oh, my, that was good! I liked the comment about the NAR analysis showing that it would take a *depression* to bring house prices down even 5%, that in *every single one of 100* regions they “studied”, fundamentals justified current pricing!
And the writer’s comment that this is an extraordinarily rosy picture coming from a trade-group who cries that if the bush administration cuts the mortgage interest deduction it would immediately result in at least a 15% devaluation in house prices!
Great point…
loved it…
I wonder what effect it will have, since I think the weekly standard has a wide readership among conservatives…
It was a very nice and clear piece…

 
Comment by Sunsetbeachguy
2006-04-16 20:39:20

That is a great find.

Now the liberal and conservative media agree on something substantiative not just mom and apple pie.

I will forward to some of my fundamentalist family that don’t believe anything in the liberal media which was on the housing bubble story first.

I much prefer the right wing approach in this instance, focus on fiscal responsibility.

Now if they could just hammer that into GW Bush that would be appreciated.

 
 
Comment by mad_tiger
2006-04-16 20:16:07

Ben, would you please stop making this stuff up!

Comment by Pismobear
2006-04-16 21:03:06

I haven’t made this up - OIL JUST WENT OVER $70 per. UP $0.72. Get ready for another interest rate hike. BB should hit with a 0.5% pop. Quit messing around with those little paper cuts.

 
 
Comment by Shannon
2006-04-16 20:54:40

If you want a good laugh go to ziprealty.com and type in 92612. This is the zip code for the so called luxury condos.
Is there someone out there that can pull up the financing information on these units? I tried to zillow it, nada.

Comment by khuezee
2006-04-16 21:41:49

i know that area code very well, since it is mine. i live 3 lights from those condo high rises. i can tell you that they are about 80% vacant (that is a generous estimate). i drive by them on sunday nights after watching the Simpsons and count the lights on, just to see if i can account for any new residents. i can happily report that no change. PEOPLE SHOULD BE HOME ON SUNDAY NIGHTS, this is a very telling sign that this development is in trouble. Those flippers are F*CKED, I LOVE IT!!!!

Comment by Ted
2006-04-17 10:18:52

If I was paying $1000 in HOA, I’d be home EVERY NIGHT. That must be some damn good HOAing.

 
 
 
Comment by arroyogrande
2006-04-16 21:09:45

“Developers are anxious to see how much demand there is for high-rise living, since they are building or planning 42 more towers in Irvine, Anaheim, Santa Ana and Costa Mesa.”

Anaheim? Santa *cough* Ana? Are you out of your mind? Costa Mesa I can see, Irvine, maybe by the business parks or by John Wayne, but why high rise condos in Anaheim, and, worst of all, Santa Ana?

I guess it would be a good idea in Santa Ana if you allowed three families per unit…

Comment by OCMax
2006-04-17 07:07:51

Anaheim has the whole “Platinum Triangle” project — an entire miniature city of homes that require, at minimum, triple the median household income to purchase (and that’s assuming you have $150k handy for a 20% down payment). Up is down and down is up, it’s Alice in Wonderland.

 
 
Comment by John Law
2006-04-16 21:41:49

silver over $13.
gold at $605.

 
Comment by John in VA
2006-04-17 01:16:41

Stayed in a hotel in Charlotte NC last night and on top of the entertainment center there’s a magazine titled “Charlotte Real Estate 2006″. The lead article is “We Love Condos: Presenting the Ultimate Guide to the Center City Condo Frenzy.” Says it all.

Comment by sf jack
2006-04-17 10:17:38

I say: “Charlotte condos for everyone!”

 
 
Comment by Lou Minatti
2006-04-17 04:40:53

Housing bubble in Mexico:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/3797648.html

Mexicans come to the US, become expert at building houses, save cash, then go back home and build McMansions. Only problem is there are no jobs in these villages.

Comment by Max
2006-04-17 13:50:41

Como se dice “McMansion” en Espanol?

“Una Casa Muy Grande”?

lol

 
 
Comment by The Economist
2006-04-17 05:13:51

My cousin came down to Fl. for a vacation. He has just purchased a home in Philly. When I asked about his mortgage, he replied with “It’s a double thingy, I dont really remember”. He said he was going to use the equity next year and purchase a pool. This was going to be his kids college and their retirement. He hasnt sold his old house yet. I have read it hear on this blog, but you just dont think it can happen to you.

 
Comment by Bigdaddy63
2006-04-17 06:09:08

OT: I went down to the beach this weekend and I would guess that OVER 75% of the beachffront condos were vacant. Some had some patio furniture out to appear occupied but no furniture inside.

This was on bothe new and older high rises in Palm Beach and Broward counties.

 
Comment by ocrenter
2006-04-17 06:11:21

Below are the Marquee units found on Domania.com:

3131 Michelson Dr Unit 1606 Feb 06 $954,000
3141 Michelson Dr Unit 402 Feb 06 $691,000
3141 Michelson Dr Unit 403 Feb 06 $639,500
3131 Michelson Dr Unit 1205 Jan 06 $822,500
3131 Michelson Dr Unit 403 Jan 06 $640,500
3131 Michelson Dr Unit 607 Jan 06 $840,500

Comment by michael
2006-04-17 20:18:11

i am a real estate agent. newbie but a realistic one. I advised all my clients about the positives and negatives so that they can make and informed decision. I looked at the listings on the MLS for these 2 towers and there were 70 active and 2 back up offer listings!!!!!…unbelievable. I went to school at UCI and does not considered the towers’ locations as very desirable…

 
 
Comment by jbunniii
2006-04-17 08:29:47

“The biggest obstacles to sales are the homeowners’ association dues, typically more than $1,000 a month, Hicks said.”

Ha ha ha ha ha, and they say that you throw your money away if you rent! Add 1.25% annual property tax on a $750k unit and you’re pushing $2000 per month just for tax and association fees. You can still rent a pretty nice place near the ocean in OC for that! Hell, when I moved out of Newport Beach last year my rent was only $1400/month for a nice 2-bedroom place probably larger than this flipper’s turd, and not in some disgusting high-rise in the middle of Irvine, either!

 
Comment by UnRealtor
2006-04-17 08:45:37

“Marcel Bruetsch is asking $1.295 million for his two-bedroom condo in Irvine, that’s 40 percent more than he paid for it three months ago.”

And some wonder why those who post here have ill feelings towards these flipper/”investor” idiots.

 
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