Bits Bucket For October 27, 2008
Please visit the HBB Forum. Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
Links
-
December 2024 M T W T F S S « Sep 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Photo Submission: hbbphotos@gmail.com
View the HBB Photo Gallery *updated 4/13/2008
Farm-Credit Squeeze May Shrink Crops, Spur Prices, Food Crisis
By Carlos Caminada, Shruti Singh and Jeff Wilson
Oct. 27 (Bloomberg)
“In Brazil, the world’s third-biggest exporter of corn after the U.S. and Argentina, production may fall more than 20 percent because farmers can’t get loans to buy fertilizer, said Enori Barbieri, a National Corn Producers Association vice president. The nation’s coffee harvest, the world’s largest, may drop 25 percent for the same reason, said Lucio Araujo, commercial director at farmer cooperative Cooxupe, located in Guaxupe”
Add this factor to the news of holds on ocean cargo shipping due to credit shortages. The falling house of credit cards could have some ugly food shortage consequences in the not too distant future.
Is there a brewing global food cirsis? Maybe it is about time for Nature to play a wildcard. Remember that little Dust Bowl thing?
Plummeting water levels at many reservoirs in Northern California this fall are unveiling an array of sunken treasures, including cars and boats, old tunnels and roads, and even towns and the remains of historic gold-mining operations.
Shasta Lake, Shasta County: The state’s largest reservoir, with 370 miles of shoreline, is down 155 feet and is only 29 percent full. That is the lowest since 1992 (also down 155 feet). The upper lake arms are now dry canyons, unveiling ghosts of the past. Off Lakeshore Drive at Lakehead, you can see an old railroad tunnel and a train trestle, an old bridge at Doney Creek, and near Antlers Resort, an old bridge for Highway 99 has reappeared. Same thing in Salt Creek, where an old Highway 99 Bridge from 1925 has emerged above the water. Near the dam, you can see this massive tower that juts straight up 50 feet out of the water. That tower is what is left of the facility that hoisted concrete when the dam was built.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/10/25/SPTH13N9HB.DTL
===============================================
I sure hope California guarantees it’s water sources from failure, otherwise how are we going to grow food?
Just build nuke plants not too far from oceans and use them to desalinate as well as generate power.
The drought has been going on for a few years now, and 30 million Californians are in for the shock of their lives early next year, and we only have 2 nuclear plants here, and you can just imagine the hoops that the state would have to jump through in order to get a few desalination plants up and working…
Imagine all the water you could ever want, lying off our extensive coastline, but none of it fit to drink?
Desalinization is very expensive. Pumping all that water uphill from the coast to the farms is even more expensive. Better to just move.
move? move where? why? just to exchange one set of problems for another . . ?!?
you cant just continually run away from problems. sets a bad precedent.
take a stand/make your mark or live life cowering in a cave.
or go run away to a poor, corrupt, eternally ‘effed place like mexico, africa, or the endlessly bickering idiots of the middle east that use any excuse for violence, and all the other places where people place personal greed above common good, and use any means necessary to achieve it.
yes, go ahead & run away. leave the real work to those who solve problems and deserve the rewards . . . then be sure to come crawling back when things get better to demand a share of your un-earned bounty.
like how Mexico didnt give a damn about the Southeastern U.S. for 100 years until it was “improved”, then it suddenly becomes the “long lost part of Mexico”.
coward.
You seem to be under the impression that you can solve a problem like that. You can’t. Sorry. The planet is warming. Whether man-made or not it doesn’t matter. California won’t keep its snow caps long enough to provide water all year round.
Even if it were technically possible to reverse that process, it is not politically possible to do it. A general consensus among the population is necessary to do anything big. And the forces arrayed against doing anything are far too powerful for a consensus to be generated.
So leave. Leave early. Before houses actually do become worthless.
And there is a big difference between cowardice and ignorance.
The general concensus amongst the population is not to breed, hence we import breeders.
brilliant, how are you going to cool those nuke plants?
the ocean cools the Nuke Power plant. Ocean property is pretty expensive though. I was in san luis obispo when they had protesters in small boats trying to stop it. lots of wealthy movie types in CA making it more NIMBY than most places.
It must not be rocket science, as Saudi Arabia has almost 30 nuclear powered desalination operations going on, along their coastline…
strange … Inearly all European nuclear reactors use rivers for cooling, and that includes almost all reactors that are on or near the coast (nice for dumping waste though…). I guess cooling with running (or less salty) water is cheaper or more efficient somehow.
Jimmy Hoffa? In a ‘59 Cadillac?
“Is there a brewing global food cirsis? Maybe it is about time for Nature to play a wildcard. Remember that little Dust Bowl thing?”
Or that little influenza pandemic thing?
“Captain Tripps”
Don’t fear the reaper…
The blind assumption that there will always be food, water, and treats on every other corner comes from a lifetime of just that- assuming and consuming.
There is a WHOLE NEW thing coming at ya, boys and girls!
Welcome to Crashland 2008 and Worldwide Depression 2009
Poverty, privation and starvation have lasting impacts upon humans, their families, cultures.
I’ve got years worth of drinking water and food here in Mesa. Most of my neighbors do also. Portable generators, fuel,batteries, GPS, maps, tents, band-aid, diapers, etc.
Typical Mormon families. From the pioneers.
They knew EXACTLY what it felt like to be out in the Rockies in the winter with no horses or cattle. And watch your family starve and freeze to death. They passed it on.
Curiosity came calling yesterday…
We have a 35 year old 300 foot deep rock well, and I checked where the water level is currently, and hit aqua @ 113 feet down.
Mormon_tea, how much of your stash was accumulated in anticipation of the Y2K meltdown?
Well, now that’s good!
Bill’s special, he doesn’t need to eat or drink.
Lad, so do you have a hand-pump option on that? No doubt you do! Humbug, that’s what I need, I suppose, along with a generator or three.
Not to mention the right price for a tank of oil to help get through this winter. Keep checking the NYS weekly avg. prices and see they’ve fallen from like $4.50 in July to about $3.30 now.
This is at the last redoubt up in Catskills where we must retreat if tshtf in the ultimate way. Guess there may be other water options besides the well … a neighbor across the hollow was having well trouble a couple of summers ago and ended up building some sort of catch basin high up on the mountainside and routing the water down to his place.
We have a hand-pump, yes.
Alladinsane,
Have the water checked for nasties like heavy metals, pollutants, and such. My great Grandmother had to stop drinking her well water because the a-holes at the paper mill down the road polluted it. Of course, they let her drink the stuff for 5 years before they told her and payed for piped water in from town. Still, she did live until 96, so I guess it didn’t hurt her that much.
Roidy
I’m no mormon but I am a moorman.
Is it ok to store years worth of bottled water?
Storing some water may not be a bad idea, if you live out west. Impossible to store enough to grow your own crops, though. You’re reliant upon utilities and water service districts at that point.
The notion of living off of dry stores really sucks. Eating home-grown is much better all around, storing over the winter what is reasonable. High efficiency DC freezers now run directly off 1-2 solar panels and a couple of golf cart batteries, and this is a great supplement or alternative to canning.
Maybe the better solution is, don’t live out west in the first place if you really are prone to worrying a lot about such things. To the degree that I think about such things (and I do), that’s the conclusion I’m coming to. Especially when western land has become much more expensive than the east, at least in general.
Ann, algae tends to grow after a while. I know people will say that bottled water is sterilized, but its not.
You wonder what’s the true carrying capacity out there in dry country. Hopefully, we don’t have to find out exactly. The West is fantastic, of course, but one shouldn’t underestimate the value of having water and hardwoods to hand like we do back East.
It’s best to refresh the water every once in a while, rather than store it for years; I’ve heard every 6 months, but I’d guess longer would be safe if it is properly prepared.
Also, best to ensure its sterility by adding a few drops unscented bleach per gallon (I’ve seen varying recommendations of as few as 2 drop to as many as 6 drops/gal). When you need to use it, open it and let it “breathe” before use, since some of the bleach will evaporate off, reducing the smell and taste.
They say the bleach is not necessary if your city supply is already chlorinated, but definitely necessary for well-water.
Red Cross / FEMA recommendations are here:
http://www.fema.gov/pdf/library/f&web.pdf
Others:
http://www.waterandhealth.org/drinkingwater/water_storage.php3
Not sure if it’s still true but as of 10+/- years ago California was one of the only, if not the only, state to require ozone gas to be added to every bottle of bottled water.
Ozone and bacteria don’t get along very well.
Mike
Ozone and plasticizers don’t get along very well either.
Prime, if you are adding drops of chlorine to sterilize long stored water, it’s more important to do it before you use it (the day before) than before you store it. “Bleach” breaks down over time.
How about potassium sorbate? Used to prevent things from growing in wine after bottling. Maybe useful for this purpose too.
Also see potassium metabisulfate, which I use for sterilizing equipment beforehand.
Along with them one dollar houses here in N. Ohio, you get the bonus of 300 cubic kilometers of clear, clean fresh water; loaded with walleyes, by the way. Come on down!
Farmers’ new trouble at the ranch: tighter credit
LUBBOCK, Texas (AP) — There is new trouble at the ranch. The worsening financial crisis is making it harder and more expensive for farmers and cattlemen to borrow money to pay for feed, land and salaries. While the credit squeeze on the agricultural sector is buffered somewhat by subsidies and other federal assistance, the timing is nonetheless bad: the costs of fertilizer, fuel, seed and equipment have all risen sharply in recent years, and a global recession is on the horizon.
“Other than the sky is falling, I’m OK, I guess,” said West Texas rancher John Welch, who manages 10,000 head of cattle.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hKbRK7HslpsAXiIo-ZCFphpZzohwD93SNFP00
There is that story about the ant and grass hopper… do you have a year supply of food at home?
It only matters, however, if said food does not require any special storage considerations and is very simple and fast to cook.
Those five hour roasts take a lot fuel.
If one is going to freak out - do it right.
Lentils cook in about 20 minutes.
They do need water.
Rainwater collection is easy - depending of course on where one lives.
Seriously though, stockpiling large amounts of food is a losing strategy. Why?
For the sake of argument:
To enjoy the benefits of said stockpile one must be prepared to defend it - or capable of moving it. A relatively small multi-week supply of dry goods is probably best, just enough to stay off the streets for a while. No one ever wants to get in the way of looters.
After a few weeks have passed, if your locale has not returned to some level of security/normalacy, then you’re probably best off relocating anyway - in which case you’d have to drag all that food along.
Now, now, don’t anyone get upset - I’m only saying this for the sake of disucssion. I have a natural bias against static defensive strategies.
You don’t need food, clothing and shelter America…Wall Street WILL provide.
Take 2 salt tablets and drive on
Ooops…you need a little water for that ?
Yup. The rain cycle has been suspended by end end of world carnival barkers…. just like fundamentals were suspended by the REtards and FL real estate now operates on a new economic paradigm.
Edgewaterjohn,
You make some good points about the difficulties of defense and benefits of being mobile. What the would is facing is unprecedented since the fall of Rome (then the majority of the known world). There may be no place to go because every country will be struggling about the same. And even if China or Russia fares better, I doubt you could get in or could afford to travel (with your family) over there.
When there is famine in the land, the value of food rises much faster than just about any other “store of wealth”. So, a plan to be mobile will not work well in world-wide famine unless you have a treasure chest full of gold. You still have the “security” issues with portable wealth, while easier to escape with, is easier to steal and you can still be mugged. Heck, they don’t even stop at red lights/stop signs in Argentina because the danger of attack is greater than the danger of a ticket!
Another problem with “being mobile” is that the more you travel the more you risk ambush. Ask anyone in Argentina whether you want to be a “drifter” or in a well defended, gated residence with around-the-clock security?
VirginiaTechDan,
It all really depends on the specifics of the moment/location. The take away I suppose is that adaptibility is priceless, and being too rooted to a single approach without the ability to quickly switch course as conditions warrant is just asking for trouble.
I sure wouldn’t want to be in a big city chock full of false entitlement…
There’s still time to get away.
Edge,
I agree, however, when the bloom is off
the rose, and your working life is over, mobility is a little harder to achieve. Age has
a way of making that home a lot brighter than
moving around the country. Plus my wife is
one heck of a shot with almost anything. She
loves her lightweight Ithica pump 12 gauge.
VirginaTech, are you sure about the Argentina red light thing? Is it certain cities or country wide? I’ve heard the same about parts of some Brazilian cities, but this is the first I’ve I’ve heard it in regard to Argentina.
Thx.
Arizzona, I read this article from someone living in the middle of the Argintina crisis.
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/10.08/tshtf1.html
Good article.
After food and clothes, the 3rd most popular item has to be CDs and DVDs, movies, music, play station 2 and Xbox games, programs, it all ends up there just one or two days after the official release in USA. Seems that they have a guy hidden under Bill Gate’s desk or something.
Didn’t entertainment do relatively well during the GD? Movies, magazines, plays and such.
RE: When they assault a country home or farm, they will usually stay there for hours or days torturing the owners. I heard it all: women and children getting raped, people tied to the beds and tortured with electricity, beatings, burned with acetylene torches.
MOMMY, WILL NANA PELOSI WILL TAKE CARE OF US ALL?
definately some disturbed individuals out there. Fortunately we don’t have any of those in THIS country.
Hey, good thinkin’! I need to go get a loan for that!
I will just take your food when I run out, survival of the fittest if it comes to it. no more old guys.
What ya doing at 6500 ft Stan, dropping bombs?
Being able to move greater than 2800 fps is quite a skill.
You mean we reached Peak Ethanol?
And peak water.
Nouriel Roubini: I fear the worst is yet to come
When this man predicted a global financial crisis more than a year ago, people laughed. Not any more…
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5014463.ece
“I fear the worst is yet to come”
Prediction: He will still be saying this after the worst is over.
Roubini has been accurate in some of the things he has predicted, but I agree with your statement, I think he is so invested in the thesis that things are getting worse that it will be difficult for him to change his tune, assuming that economic conditions improve at some point.
People say this, but I believe that once government starts making steps toward individual freedom, less taxation, etc most people who have been predicting doom will be able to start predicting things getting better.
Assuming people simply predict “getting worse” because they always have ignores that so far, these people have been right. Apparent prosperity is still “getting worse” if it is based on a debt bubble. These people are looking for specific signs of improvement and when they see it, they will start becoming optimistic.
I believe, as Roubini does, that things will continue to deteriorate for some time to come. I just don’t necessarily trust him to pick when things will become better.
Picking bottoms is just as hard as picking tops. Getting in at the exact bottom isn’t any easier, and probably almost as risky as getting out just before the top.
Probably but the fundamentals headed into 2009 look bleak.
We haven’t hit the peak of the Alt-A and option-ARM resets and the “consumer” has wilted on the vine. Earnings are going to be bleak and aren’t sufficiently discounted.
Of course, it’ll get better as they default and banks write off loans along with the help from Papa Fed but they really h_mped the pooch this time. The idea that consumers will go on a consumption binge again rather than rebuild their tattered balance sheets is ludicrous.
I also predict that you will call a bottom before Roubini does…
Probably.
“The idea that consumers will go on a consumption binge again rather than rebuild their tattered balance sheets is ludicrous.”
I fear you may overestimate the wisdom of the average consumer, FPSS… Rebuilding balance sheets would certianly be the sensible course of action, but I’m guessing J6P may binge again as soon as he can get the credit with which to do so.
Yeah, well I’m not overestimating the intelligence of the mor*ns who provided for this binge in the first place.
Burnt to a crisp, they are not gonna be so sanguine about handing out the candy so soon. A decade later, probably but not for a while.
If they really want “consumers” to go on a spending spree the Fed will have to pay off everyone’s credit card.
That’s right, FP,SS. There will ALWAYS be people willing to borrow their way to the poor house. Even as many consumers become “sadder and wiser”, new idiots will refresh the supply of the profligate. Normally it is the limited willingness of those who actually HAVE the money to lend it out that enforces a level of thrift upon the masses. But a combination of factors erased all caution by lenders and THAT’S where the change will be.
‘If they really want “consumers” to go on a spending spree the Fed will have to pay off everyone’s credit card.’
Isn’t that the point of stimulus checks? Perhaps stimulus of larger magnitude — say five year’s worth of income per U.S. citizen — is all that is needed to jump start consumer spending again? Who would possibly argue against such a proposal?
I know a guy who finally got paid 15k by his 6 months in arrears small business. He spent 8k of it on an engagement ring. Oh well, better than booze or cigarettes, I guess.
In a way you are correct…I think I read somewhere it would have been cheaper to buy everyone a house and food for a year than the amount they spent on the whole Katrina fiasco.
More Wisconsinites being sued for defaulting on debts
http://www.jsonline.com/news/waukesha/33339959.html
Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) — Less than three weeks after the Federal Reserve’s emergency interest-rate reduction was, in the words of its vice chairman, “overwhelmed” by the collapse of financial markets, Ben S. Bernanke is about to try again.
The outlook has worsened since the Fed last acted on Oct. 8, and analysts now say the economy may shrink more than 2 percent in the final quarter of 2008, its steepest decline in at least 18 years. “We’re heading south big-time,” says Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor who is now senior economic adviser at Stanford Group Co. in Washington.
As a result, Fed Chairman Bernanke and his colleagues may eventually have to drive the benchmark overnight rate close to zero to resuscitate the economy. The next installment comes Oct. 29 when, says Gramley, “the Fed is going to cut rates a half percentage point.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/?b=0&Intro=intro3
Funny, but this morning I saw a bunch of helicopters coming up from the direction of Washington. They flew right over Brooklyn without stopping, then paused over Manhattan and appeared to be dropping something, then headed off in the direction of Greenwich, without pausing over The Bronx.
Those choppers SHOULD have off loaded a large detachment of Delta Force to hunt down and smoke out those evil doers and terrorists hidding in the canyons and caves of WALL STREET
No kidding.
Why go 6,000 miles away to hunt down evildoers when they’re right here in the good ole’ US of A (and they look just like me and you).
Leaving the coast north of Westport, they curved towards the Hamptons, flew straight towards Nantucket where they hovered, made a beeline to Wellesley, MA. A few minutes later, over some small towns in Vermont, something rained down but it was liquid and smelly.
And watch as interest rates climb, for things like mortgages, even after the Fed “cuts” them. The hubris that the Federal Reserve can price fix market interest rates!
FPSS will say “I told you so” any time now…
I told you so.
The base rate can be anything. The spread will adjust to capture the risk.
BWHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
watch for it on a Tuesday suprise, they might even do it today.
gotta keep ‘em guessing.
Hoz’s prediction of the Swedebank collapse is at hand.
it’s global, its not contained, and its gonna get worse when the EU/Asians realize that any sort of “lets crash the dollar” and pick up the pieces fails.
nasty, bitter pills go down best with the sweet honey ambrosia of quantitative easing and forced capital injections….
Surprise cuts have lost their efficacy. Look at the sharp reaction to the 50 bps “worldwide cut”. They’ve “jumped the shark”.
Hmmm, drive rates almost to zero. Some one remind me, what happened the last time we did that?
This time it’s different. This time there’s no demand.
And a super-glut of houses wilting away with no buyers in sight…
What happens to the supply of short term loans when the price (short term interest rate) is driven to near zero?
I bet the banks will be happy to borrow at 0% On the other hand what they will lend at ?
The correct question is who will they lend to?
Sounds like we may be on track to revisit yesterday’s discussion about the bid-asked gap in illiquid markets?
I was trying to explain to my parents why recapitalizing the banks didn’t make them instantly start passing out loans. I tried this:
Imagine you are a bank manager. You just got an infusion of cash so you plausibly can lend, though you aren’t sure if you will need that cash in a few months to offset losses from loans that are already on your books. Your choices are a business loan to someone who wants to start the fifth “Ye Olde Candle Shoppe” in your fairly small town and a 100% car loan to a guy with no job and less than 500 FICO score. What do you do?
Dad definitely got it. Mom might have, but she is so devoted to Bob Brinker that I can’t be sure.
a business loan to someone who wants to start the fifth “Ye Olde Candle Shoppe”
lol
Yes, but this one is going to market online and use newly developed software to tap into the global market.
Hey…we may need to burn Candles for heat and light before this winter is over !
lol
Using current accounting methodology…
If you burn a candle @ both ends, do you end up with 30 candles, after you run out of wicks & wax?
Good one, Mikey.
Our local equivalent was a shop that specialized in teddy bears. It closed its doors no too long ago.
We have a place that sells 5 dollar cupcakes. No kidding. My wife pointed it out to me one day, it’s in the sheak (shiek?, shrek?) part of town.
I’m anxiously waiting to see how long it stays open. I figure it’s probably owned by a doctor’s wife or some such, so it may have a bit of staying power.
You forgot option C:
pay bonuses to stellar employees to keep them from jumping ship to another institution.
Don’t forget scrapbooking stores.
It’s time for a look down memory lane (damn! already?)
Top ten b*llshit “professions” enabled by the housing bubble.
10. aromatherapy
9. house staging
8. feng shui “expert”
7. scrapbooking
6. make-your-own-candleshop
5. yoga studio
4. doggie spas
3. koi pond “experts”, koi breeders, etc.
2. sign twirlers
And the top candidate:
1. life coach.
I disagree with the aromatherapy and yoga studio being “BS”. Yoga has been around for, oh 3000-4000 years or so and simply because it comes from another culture doesn’t make it less legitimate than a fitness studio or church (which is the role it fills in India). As a fellow admirer of Indian culture and cuisine, I know you can appreciate this.
Aromatherapy has a long tradition as well, and when I refer to aromatherapists, their work has complemented my allopathic recommendations for patients with certain anxiety, pain and sleep disorders that affect their medical conditions. I never knew that there were 3 kinds of lavender scents, for instance, only one of which is relaxing and two are “activating”. The lavender you buy at many stores is not refined enough to be clinically useful.
It may have a long history, but the cash-strapped consumer in need of relaxation is more likely to spend 5 bucks on a bottle of loudmouth than 50 bucks on an aromatherapy session.
Thank you, Russ (is that your name?)
I have nothing against yoga which promotes flexibility just like I have nothing against exercise (which is obviously a good thing.)
I have something against the $200/hour trainer which is gonna get taken back behind the woodshed and shot like a diseased dog.
But I don’t need to do anything. No HELOC, no more BS “professions”.
Owners of the local “Karate studio” are also doomed. Can you say discretionary spending?
Well, now imagine there is a loaded gun pointed at the bankers head. If banker does not lend, gun goes off.
The federal reserve may be shortsighted but they know that their existance depends on a functional and reasonably well off america. Don’t be surprised if they put the screws on bankers, they know their very existence might depend on it.
Just consider the options available to Bernanke:
1. Do nothing and be blamed for Global Depression
2. Raise rates, crash markets, and be blamed for Global Depresssion
3. Lower rates and help ensure Global Depression but share the blame with the world’s leading experts
Seems like a no-brainer, which is what they have anyway.
Have I ever mentioned that all fiat leads to hyperinflation? The Fed just drove itself off a cliff.
‘Seems like a no-brainer, which is what they have anyway.’
Remember the DiTech commercials “People are Smart”? We have got to be the dumbest animals ever to walk the planet. Ever heard of a Dolphin Bailout? I am writing in a marine mammal on the ballot when I vote.
Flipper?
Lol.
One aspect of fiat currency that doesn’t get talked about too much, is the idea of just how easy it is to counterfeit it using current-day technology.
Imagine how easy it would be for other countries to destabilize other countries vis a vis the printing press?
Hyperinflation? Looks like fiat is doing fine right now.
Platinum has gone from $2200/oz to $775/oz.
When was the last time platinum and gold sold for the same price?
Mid 1990’s was when Pt was worth less than the precious…
Pt is much rarer than mellow yellow, but it’s main use is in catalytic converters, and it’s pretty obvious car sales aren’t going to recover anytime soon.
whatever happens, if Bernanke survives the carnage he will have a nice subject (the Greater Depression) for teaching and writing in his remaining career at Princeton, or what is left of it.
From across the pond, the Financial Times can see the potential disaster in public employee pension funds.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/29c8e0c8-a3a0-11dd-942c-000077b07658.html
“About 40 per cent are underfunded, meaning that they would not be able to pay the future pensions that employees have been promised. State governments have lifted pension benefits – a move that is politically popular – but have often failed to put in more money to pay for them.”
That was the deal. Politicians allow public employees to retire younger and younger with a sweeter and sweeter deal, and public employee unions contribute to their campaigns and allow the politicians to cut contributions to the funds, allowing popular tax cuts and spending grants. What heroes they’ve been, our elected officials, doing such wonderful things for everyone (of their generation in the short run). Here in NYC, Republicans have been as culpable, or more culpable, than Democrats. They all did it.
“Many states face their own budget crunches, and members of Congress are pushing for a second fiscal stimulus package, in part to alleviate some of the pressures on state funding. Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the House of Representatives, cited money lost from pension funds in her push this month for the $150bn second stimulus.”
I have an idea. Let’s cut Social Security for those working their ass off with no pension into their late 60s, so we can guarantee the pensions of those who retire at age 55.
I’m 15 years away from my grandido a month promised by the powers that be, and i’ve already written it off as a bad debt, but imagine the consternation of people like my brother-in-law, who is just a year away from his first social security payout?
I’m 36. I don’t expect to see a single penny of ANY of that entitlement crap coming my way by the time I reach retirement. You know those commercials where the white-haired but still hale and darling couple stands there cheerily planning their eco-friendly house in Taos or wherever, or some oldster is animatedly talking about their new vineyard, or flying all happily in the fun little glider plane? Those commercials make me absolutely ape-poop crazy.
Heck, I’m gonna feel super lucky if the bridges still work, when IIIII retire.
There’s tv commercials for Pacific Life Insurance with 66 year olds doing adventurous stuff around whales that pop out of the water frequently.
I wonder what it’s all about?
Soon to be seniors are afraid of winding up “boring”. They don’t want to end up being the old coot that yells at kids to get off his lawn, watches Jeopardy faithfully and catches the early bird dinner at Luby’s.
But they will.
I love all of your posts. The young people will kick us Boomers to the curb when they take power, and I won’t blame them a bit.
The first time I yelled at kids cutting across my yard, I had to laugh. I realized I was officially the pain-in-the-ass-old-fart neighbor we all grew up with.
An even better story was my (at the time) 24 year old daughter being referred to as “old” by one of her 17 year old employees.
“You know those commercials where the white-haired but still hale and darling couple stands there cheerily planning their eco-friendly house in Taos or wherever …”
lol
Olygal,
I’m 52 and I don’t expect nor count on Social Security when and if I retire.
Sounds like you and I are about the same age Lad, and I don’t expect to see a penny. Your BIL will though.
I’m 20 years away from collecting on SS, but did the math and wrote it off about 20 years ago, before graduating from college.
Giving up on it eary left me plenty of time to make other arrangements.
I’m in the same situation and have written off the government provided pension years ago; unfortunately my private pension plan also proved to be a black hole. But I think most people in Europe are still counting on the government to arrange everything as promised.
Just like in the US and UK discussion about pensions is starting, and I see a ‘war’ brewing between workers, those enjoying the superfat pensions now and future pensioners who will get a lot less than they paid for. Buffers of our pension funds (among the biggest in the world) have crashed lately, and something needs to be done.
I think “means” testing will be implemented sooner or later. Only the poor ( or those with no traceable assets ) will be collecting.
I think we’ll see a wide scale tax revolt before that happens. And IRS facility Timothy McVeigh “testing”.
Does anyone else think it is funny how it is “assumed” that you can just put your money someplace and get a nice 5% (or more growth). I mean, if the government can do it with the pensions, then surely Joe Schmoe should be able to do it.
I think pension plans are BS because they control the rate at which you can withdraw your money and if they screw up you are screwed!
My father in law has worked for 40 years and is about to start withdrawing from the pension at 2K per month (guessing). He cannot do anything to protect himself from the coming collapse nor the insolvency of rail road retirement because they are holding his life savings hostage. If instead he received an extra $200/month and no pension he would be able to hedge with 100K even if he earned 0 interest over the past 40 years. In my opinion, $100K in cash today is far better than any “pension” promised by the big rail roads or governments. To make good on his pension, the rail road should have over $500,000 saved on his behalf.
In my opinion, financial freedom is the only way to save for retirement. If you lock yourself into some “plan” or “pension” then you are screwed… thus the problem with social security. Given an extra 16% take home pay I sure could save a lot for my retirement.
I think most people would be envious to be in your father’s position.
Given an extra 16% take home pay I sure could save a lot for my retirement.
————————-
If you, and everyone else, were allowed to keep this extra 16%, what makes you think they (or you) will not go out and spend it, running your costs up so you can no longer “save” that 16%?
After that, you end up with nothing, because we all know that there is a large enough contingent of the population who is willing to spend everything they earn or borrow. This drives up costs, and forces the more responsible people to save less.
IMHO, forced savings are the best route, even though there are valid arguments against it.
in NY tier one retirement was full pay
insane
in Upstate everyone seems to be on the dole , like DC
In Florida, we have the “Florida Retirement System”, the FRS, of which I hope someday to be a beneficiary. Back in the ’90’s, Florida passed term limits on the legislature. Back in those days it took 10 years to be vested in the FRS. After term limits passed, the legislature promptly reduced it from 10 -> 6 years to make sure they’d get their piece of the pie.
The County throws in 17% of my annual to the FRS + 12.8% to SS. And I throw 10% into my 457B plan earning 0% in treasuries. Add it up and that is 39.8%. That is all before taxes.
I am so fu%*ed.
Sorry OT, but too funny!
Sun, October 26, 2008
Today’s Republicans: Dumb
There’s no better way to describe a party taken over by neocons and the religious right
By ERIC MARGOLIS
Funny and scary at the same time. Its true. The Republican party corrupted itself. I too come from a family of Republicans… who are all voting for Obama because they ( like myself) think Palin is a moron and potentially dangerous in the possible event that she would be president. Scary because even though it looks like Obama has won, I’m still suspicious that somehow, a little trick will be pulled out of a hat somewhere and Mccain will win. Scary because for the first time, I’ve seriously thought about moving out of the US if Mccain wins. Me and my Wife both have discussed it. We have family in Australia.
Hope and Love are nice things, it is hard to pay the bills with them though?
Maybe you could get a group rate fare with Alec Baldwin, Eddie Vedder, and Robert Altman.
I’m pretty sure Robert Altman is dead, so you’d have to travel with his cadaver.
Well. I guess he left after all.
PB,
Would you happen to know anything about the author of the article?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Margolis
You’re welcome.
NR
I am guessing he is a Canuck…
Wrong. I thought “I’m a rogue Republican” would be a tip-off:
Eric Margolis is an American journalist. He is a contributing editor to the Toronto Sun chain of newspapers, writing mainly about the Middle East, South Asia and Islam, and appears frequently on Canadian television broadcasts, as well as on CNN.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Margolis
Palin as President
I find myself slipping back into some patterns of destructive thinking because of the general doom and gloom about the economy and especially all the talk about lay offs. Now, don’t get me wrong, I am in as good a position as I could be - job is not at risk since I am in a high priority federal agency, zero debt, renter, moved investments to nearly all cash over a year ago, plenty of savings, resonably healthy, etc. - but I got laid off in the last downturn and the whole atmosphere gives me a low level freak out. I can’t imagine how bad it is for people who are in debt or already in trouble somehow.
Any advice on how to snap out of it? I’m inclined to think I need a good swift kick in the pants of the metaphorical mom giving you a good swift kick in the pants variety. However, mom hasn’t had that sort of effect on me for at least 15 years, so no luck there. I mean I’ll do the standard stuff - argue down the rent increase, put off getting a bigger TV, do my normal supermarket magic with sales and coupons, up my yearly donation to orgs that help the truely hungry and desperately sick, but I don’t think that will make me actually feel better. Maybe just getting past this endless election cycle will help, not because of any miraculous mood lifting caused by the result, but because the scare mongering in the media will ease up a bit. Then again, without an election, maybe the media will have nothing to talk about but the wretched economy.
Suggestions gratefully welcomed. Please note, that getting drunk is not usually a mood lifter for me even with very good alcohol. Just a personality thing.
Polly,
Retreat back into Mother Nature’s realm, take a walk in the woods or up a mountain or down a canyon…
She has no idea what’s going on financially, which makes for a most excellent companion who’s debt free and as an added bonus, there is no charge for entrance into her world.
Mother nature is hardly what I would consider debt free…
Don’t tell me she got caught up in the housing bubble, just like everybody else?
I agree with Lad, also alcohol is a depressant and, I believe can cause clinical depression if you drink enough of it over a long period of time. Also, exercise will boost endorphins and you will feel better.
Our situation is similar to yours Polly.
“I am in as good a position as I could be - job is not at risk since I am in a high priority federal agency, zero debt, renter, moved investments to nearly all cash over a year ago, plenty of savings, resonably healthy, etc.”
I’m in the same position — although it is my wife who is in the high-priority federal agency.
I’m afraid, however, that the pain is going to be socialized. I believe my younger child may not get to graduate from high school, for example, because there will be such a big cutback in teachers that she won’t be able to get required courses (the older child might squeek through). Transit services are going to collapse. Taxes are going to soar. Etc.
Then if the kids do get to go to college, there will be a great deal of “counterparty risk.” Massive tuition increases in private colleges as they try to live in the way they are accustomed. Huge cuts in quality of service at public colleges due to budget constraints?
I just read an article last week about Colleges becoming the next bubble to pop. Tuition is sky high and the quality has not improved. Tuition doubled during the time I was at school.
I went to a private college and paid through the nose. Can’t say it was worth it from a “what did I really learn?” stanpoint. But lucky for me it does help me get my foot in the door and more then made up for it with my current salary.
I would expect enrollment to drop. But these days with the everyone needs a degree mentality I am sure some parents will bankrupt themselevs trying to get their kids to finish.
Just spoke to a friend from Germany and that’s exactly what’s happening over there. His school went under because of an increase in costs and decrease in classes/education. Enrollment dropped, funds dried up, school closed.
Just like the housing bubble, College Tuition was supported by ridiculous amounts of loans taken by (very young) people who didn’t really worry about whether they could ever pay it back or not. That loan market is closing and as such the asset price (tuition) will have to come down. I know a Sallie Mae loan rep and he just told me that for private loans, they are going to require an 800 FICO, how many 17-22 year olds are walking around with an 800? Sounds to me like they don’t want to lend at all….
Sounds to me that they are planning to require parents to co-sign the loans made to the kids. And not to make too many of them anyway.
2 yrs at a community college then 2 yrs at a good state college, get good grades and it is cheap and fun. Only the tier 2, private’s will suffer, like USC.
Then after graduation, become a Realtor, I hear they are all rich.
WT, is it life during wartime already? I hadn’t yet stopped to worry whether the kids would get through school! Maybe I should! But there oughta be a few state schools left that’ll give them a decent shot, I’ve got to believe. Private schools, I never got that … always seemed they cost 4X as much, MIGHT give you a 5% better education, assuming you weren’t bright enough to seek out the better teachers and programs at State U. Guess my 3 will get the same talk on Ivies, etc., that my 2 brothers and I got, but that’s unchanged by current events.
“WT, is it life during wartime already? I hadn’t yet stopped to worry whether the kids would get through school!”
What do I know the most about? Public, particularly state and local, finance.
Here in NY, the first thing to cut will be the NYC schools. And within those schools, debt service and pensions come off the top — the seniors who buy those bonds and get those pensions matter much more than kids.
So there are going to be huge cuts. Close the schools? Politically damaging. How about having them open, but have the kids not be able to get any courses, and then deny there is a problem? Sounds like a good political option to me.
My optimistic scenario is that after cutting extra-curriculars, electives, and guidance counselers, they’ll just cut senior year. Tell the kids to get a GED. In that case, at least they would get through three years of required courses in three years, instead of six.
That’s a pretty frightening scenario, WT. Didn’t much like the thought of Bloomberg ignoring 2 votes to seek a 3rd term, but perhaps that’s not the worst thing that could happen. Can’t see anything so drastic happening on his watch, considering how he sees remaking the schools a major part of his legacy.
Do you recall, say, what happened in the ’70s in NYC schools? I was across the river in Jersey (class of 77) and don’t recall anything drastic. Perhaps the 30s has examples to ponder?
“Do you recall, say, what happened in the ’70s in NYC schools?”
On LI teachers were paid to leave the field for other careers. I also remember that one year there weren’t enough textbooks to go around. Also, for at least two years the budget didn’t pass,buses and sports got cut (although added back later in the year).
This was back in the 70’s whenteachers on LI were paid close to what they were paid in other areas. Now they make about 100K.
In the 1930s the City of Chicago paid its teachers in warrents, with 6% interest, payable when the city had money.
In the 1970s there were 50 kids in a class in the NYC schools.
in that end of the world movie w clive owen the useless fed workers still had their jobs at the “dept of not finding,producing any enregy, ever
I am an optimist. The US is going to muddle its way through this pothole. For me the key is to look for profitable opportunities. A deflation/end of the world scenario is a ‘crack dream’.
I have taken the time over the weekend to find some ETFs that give an opportunity to make a reasonable profit with lower risk. These are similar to what I am currently doing. This investment is suitable for me, myself and I; others should research these funds to see if they fit their investment targets. My advice 3% in each fund and no more than 5% of investment money
Rydex Managed Futures Strategy H (RYMFX)
PowerShares Emerging Mkts Sovereign Debt (PCY)
RE: Any advice on how to snap out of it?
Go read a book on the civilian exodus from East Prussia or the fall of Berlin in ‘45 when the Russians rolled into town.
yeah, I just watched a documentary called Nanking.
Yikes. I’m surprised china hasn’t attacked japan yet.
LOL. Well, not really.
No one should read about the Ost Front unless they want to be found hanging from the rafters.
Sometimes I really wish we had the ability to unread and unlearn certain things. Then maybe I could hang out at the mall in blissful ignorance.
You must not be very old yet. Just wait. LOL
I was thinking maybe another HBB in-person gathering could cheer us up. But I’ve found logistics can be difficult to arrange for such things. What about a live chat-room feature for this website, or even a live web conference via webcams? I might be able to help set it up, I have some web development background.
Lehigh, excellant suggestion.
We can call it the depression hedge.
I am a heavy user of IRC .. the good ol’ defacto chat system. It’s what I prefer over all the skype tripe.
I used to block all IRC traffic at my old job and would again if I had say in it here. It’s heavily used as a communication channel for botnets.
Yes I know. Friends and myself SSH out to our own machines, and then run it from there. Many of the new botnets are moving to newer things for control channels, though. A computer security guy…
There are people from all walks of life reading the bubble blog apparently.
Stop listening to the media in all forms. Just find people you like and activities that you like and pursue them. Read. Exercise. Find a new hobby. Stay in touch with family and friends. Don’t feel bad for what you have while others may loose some of what they have. Life is for the strong and those that embrace it with passion.
Polly,
Start keeping a journal.
See if you can help a friend or neighbor fix something.
Be yourself first, after a while you will make a big improvement in someone else’s life.
Polly, if you are in the position you say you are then these should be great days for you! I find the news these days refreshing and when the DOW hit 14k last year I was in a major funk because I had never smelled so much BS and so many people buying it. Our economy has needed a good high colonic for a very, very long time. Hopefully this is now that time.
Wait a few years and opportunities will be everywhere for those with real cash and no debt. Right Ben and Combo?
Polly, I feel your pain. No, I’m not a former president or a politician.
I concur with alad’s advice on getting some nature therapy. I know it is a great help for me. This past weekend, my 10 year son and I went on a long bike ride through a nature area. The ride certainly helped clear my own personal mental cobwebs.
I’ve also tried cutting back on reading too much economic news, especially before bed. I’ve had some scary dreams involving trying to survive after global economic collapse, after reading economic news stories just before going to bed.
Perhaps it would also help to simply read more books for personal enjoyment. Of course, like many others, you good just go shopping and say,”Charge it!”. -:)
Polly, get a really good engaging hobby, something you can be a bit passionate about, like film or photography or writing or watercolor or whatever suits you. Then go for it.
I’ve also found that a few good books are great therapy, I LOVE reading about river rafting and mtn climbing and adventure.
BTW, Tony Hillerman just passed away. I have yet to read any of his books, but they come highly recommended.
I do ceramics if you want to be all hoity toity - pottery if you don’t. It is fun. You get dirty. Nice people. Had an honest to god belly laugh over it last week. The teacher made up some fiber clay for a classmate who wanted to join some very heavy pieces. It looked like the clay had eaten a rat. I pointed that out and we all dissolved into hysterics for a time.
However, the whole thing still drags along a whiff of the economy. The pottery class used to have a whole bunch of people just doing it for fun. This semester it is nearly all college students taking it for regular credit and public school art teachers taking it for continuing education credit.
I think I am going to have to go hiking. That is a good idea, and it honestly hadn’t occured to me as a mood changer. Used to go all the time in college. That was New Hampshire and we didn’t need to drive to get someplace remote. Then again, I own a car now, so that is no excuse.
OK, GREAT idea, I’m outta here.
Utah, I take three cameras where ever I go.
I make myself walk near the beach with my dog pico and smell the ocean. Oceanside ain’t malibu but there are many pleasant neighborhoods near the beach. Some downright gorgeous.
http://www.souththestrand.com/
A few weeks ago there was a fancy tent pitched in the sand to pitch these lovely pads.
Very nice, but a bit too austere and elegant for my taste, I lean more towards fiberglass and wheels, or even better yet, sleeping bag and sand. Cheaper, too.
And I’ve seen some of your photos, very very nice.
The cali beaches are beautiful, even though the water tends to be a bit chilly. cali was once one of the most beautiful places on earth, until it got so crowded. Certain parts still are, like Yo Semite.
Yes, I recommended Tony Hillerman. I saw the news also about him.
He is the one that put the bug into me to go to New Mexico.
I rode my bike right past the open house for these . . they seemed nice, but not nice enough to stop and actually look at them . . .
I would say “go surfing”, but really there are already too many people in the water these days.
It is hard to stomach too much gloom and doom
Zoloft seems to be the popular choice at my office.
very funny!
‘Please note, that getting drunk is not usually a mood lifter for me even with very good alcohol. Just a personality thing.’
You poor woman. You poor, poor woman.
Polly, I’m the same way, it just makes me morose and pensive and all existential. I’m a natural optimist until I drink even one beer. I’ve had people try to get me to drink cause my optimism drives them nuts.
‘I’m a natural optimist until I drink even one beer.’
Oh, lordy! Not YOU, too?! This is terrible. I think I’m surely a’gonna cry from the pity and the overwhelming tragedy of it all.
Tears…tears coming….quick! Quickly, man, where’s my Emergency Beer?!
I LOVE beer. As noted patriot and over-achiever Ben Franklin said:
‘Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy.’
Amen, brother.
Of course, he also said ‘Early to bed and early to rise makes a man healthy, wealthy, and wise.’
And THAT is a bunch of errant hooey. But the first one? Them’s golden words, right there.
LOL!! Not to worry, Oly, I have plenty of other vices (bad coffee, frosted animal cookies, etc.).
When I get down and really need a lift, I go sit under a big Fremont cottonwood, close my eyes, and imagine I’m at the mall. I picture the stores - Macy’s, Bed and Bath, all that, wander around for awhile, sit on a bench and watch people walking by with their glazed eyes, designer bags, and junk food - and when I start getting really anxious I slowly open my eyes and look around me.
The relief makes me overwhelmingly happy and appreciative. Works every dang time.
I like digging around antique malls. I take my camera inside and photograph the vignettes.
I’m really looking for ghost orbs.
I hate fancy malls.
Go to Antelope Canyon for ghosts. Lots of people have died there in flashfloods.
I have a writer friend who took photos there that have all kinds of strange effects. He says he could see the ghosts out of the corner of his eye, but I think he was smokin’ the weed again.
I had a professor hypothesize that the invention of beer allowed for the first dense human settlements because it is a very efficient way to up the protein content of grain - much more efficient than feeding it to animals.
I have no idea if he was serious, but the Egyptians definitely made beer.
‘I had a professor hypothesize that the invention of beer allowed for the first dense human settlements because it is a very efficient way to up the protein content of grain - much more efficient than feeding it to animals.’
Was he drunk when he came up with this theory? I have lots of my best ideas when I’m drunk. ‘Can I climb this here giant 89′ tall hemlock tree in rhinestone decorated pink high-heels?’ sort of ideas, yes, but ALSO truly good ideas. For example, once I wanted to take a close-up photo of a tiny little bird’s nest fungus cluster. I have no super-macro lens for my Canon camera, it’s just a point-and-shoot, so I put down my beer, dug out a piece of junk Kodak I got when I took a whole ‘Free Box’ at a yard sale, it was in there by accident and I recalled seeing it, and I found a few bits of other stuff from my pack-rat collection and I assembled myself a super-close-up zoom lens. I thought, hey, if Leeuwenhoek can make a microscope in those primitive olden times, certainly a drunk chick in darling shoes and with plentiful boxes of trash can do it now, right? This is modern times, baybee! Is what I thought. It worked wonderfully. It still works wonderfully. You can purt’ near see the little MOLECULES, it works so well. I show it to people and enjoy their astonishment and approbation.
Next time I’m drunk I’m gonna’ build a super-collider.
That’s AWESOME visualization therapy, Losty! Relief at not being in a mall–I love it.
OlyGal, count me in the “happy drinker” category; when I get buzzed, I tend to just get happy and have a big silly grin. I count my lucky stars that I’m not one of those cry-in-my-beer or get-angry-at-the-world drunks! Can’t relate, and wouldn’t want to be them!
Alternative hypothesis:
…it is a very efficient way to up the
protein contentconsumption value of grain…“Any advice on how to snap out of it?”
Make the effort to find that special someone to share this experience with. It sounds as if you have everything but that. I’m sure there are a plethora of men out there who would love to be in the company of a woman such as yourself.
I’ll tell you what works for me, look at your TSP statement and think about how much better you have it than all those other slobs. Okay while it does make me a little unhappy to see that I’ve lost, say $6,000 in a day, the fact that ~90% of it is in treasuries makes me sleep soundly at night.
Turn off the TV and do something creative that you like to do.
The Lad is right about getting out and spending time in the natural spaces.
Pay attention to what you DO have and try not to focus on what MAY happen.
Sing out loud.
It’s easy to fall into a dark place these days. Nothing makes sense much anymore.
But remember that you have skills and experience that will carry you a long way.
When you find yourself slipping, focus on one good thing, one marvelous, beautiful, magnificent thing, a flower, a sunrise, star or whet ever. That focus can be a fulcrum in what I call a willful shift of perception from a field of perception filled with the negative to one filled with positive. When we really look at our world we can see both good and bad stuff out there. It can be a choice as to what we give our attention to.
Free will and all that …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KI-8hst0bho
Polly, get a dog. They are simple, and happy, and take you outside of yourself. They wake up every day with the same dopey smile. “Yay! This is another Day!! Just like Every Other Day!”.
Having the companionship of a good dog makes you a better person. You really do get more centered - animals can tell about crazy energy that bounces all over. Through a process of adjustment, you just learn to be more…well, centered.
Plus, they tend to guarantee that you will look out for your so-called work-life balance.
I get by quite well with less face time, and really cranking it out in peace and quiet at home as opposed to ostentatiously laboring over my desk.
That would be my advice.
You have been great with saving and make good decisions. I say splurge a little on yourself. I am also a big grocery coupon cutter/sale shopper, but in the last few weeks I have splurged a little bit on some food from the local “fancy” health food store.
I started biking 10 years ago. Lots of great biking in the DC-MD-VA -PA area (paths, rails to trails, low volume eastern shore roads), stay off roads unless with experienced people. It is a great mood enhancer form me. A lttle more difficult for a woman on her own though.
PBGC = Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation / govt insurance plan for private pensions, playing an analogous role to the FDIC in the banking system. Luckily they only lost $5 bn in the stock market, not some outlandishly large amount like $700 bn.
Wall Street Journal
* OCTOBER 24, 2008, 6:13 P.M. ET
PBGC Chief Questioned on Investment Practices
By DARRELL A. HUGHES
WASHINGTON — The head of the U.S. Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation said that his agency is facing a shortfall because it has lost nearly $5 billion in stock investments at a time when more companies are inadequately funding their pension plans, forcing the PBGC to take them over.
More “guarantees”, you think?
Bernanke’s reputation is gonna be soooooooo trashed in 10 years.
A good question to address before proposing to guarantee just about everything:
Do large-scale macroeconomic guarantees actually even make sense?
They don’t make sense but they sound good right along with “compassionate conservatism” and “jumbo shrimp” and “tight slacks”.
“Bernanke’s reputation is gonna be soooooooo trashed in 10 years.”
To the extent of Greenspans trashed reputation? I hope not, he inherited this mess to fix.
When this calms down, i would like to see some before and after pictures of him and Paulson, to get an idea of how stressed out they were during this crisis.
You can hope all you want but hope is NOT a strategy.
He’s gonna get besmirched too.
Word on the street has it that Alan Meltzer turned down the job because he knew what was coming down the p00pchute. Smart man.
You’re right, I just hate to see it because I happen to like the guy. I dont agree with everything he does, but given the crap thats being thrown at him from all sides of the fence, I think he’s doing what he feels is the right thing to do. Right or Wrong.
I feel sorry for the man.
He willfully ignores Ron Paul and Austrian Economics. He is a moron. He is a criminal. He is a counterfeiter. He is a thief. And he is an arrogant prick who thinks he is an expert on the Great Depression.
He is a liar. He claims institutions being “too big to fail” and then assists in making those very same institutions even bigger.
I feel sorry for America and its citizens.
BULLETIN
MAJOR U.S. STOCK INDEXES FALL 2% EARLY MONDAY
Stock losses take heavy toll on pension plans
By Matt Andrejczak, MarketWatch
Last update: 6:40 p.m. EDT Oct. 22, 2008
…
Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at Standard & Poor’s, calculates corporate pension plans will be underfunded by at least $219 billion by yearend — the largest deficit since 1991.
Yeah, my pension is the 4th largest in the country (CALSTRS).
Not retiring for 15 years, but between CA being insolvent and my other 401 tanking, I am seriously considering my house-buying fund turning into my land-buying fund -
Arable land with a well may be the only way to go. Feeling a little worried about urban living.
It’s looking like another red numbers day is in the making. How much blood is left in the market at this point?
Plenty.
Don’t let ‘em fool ya!
We’re not there yet with absolutely no apologies to Grantham and Buffett.
Yeh, the Hang Seng is down almost 13%,and Nikkei down yet another 6% today…probably nothing.
Boy Timmy, look at all these pretty seashells, the tide is sure out far again…..let’s walk out there, and see what’s happening…I’ve never seen this before….
I have not been keeping up with the HBB for the last few days but I did want to go back to a concern that aladinsane and others have brought up. My biggest concern right now is that will a collapsing economy lead to a collapse in social social order?
I may sound like a chicken little to some folks, but I was surfing YouTube this weekend (you know, things like Colin Powell’s endorsement of Obama or Christopher Hitchens on Bill Maher’s show) and I was really repulsed to find so many people making racist or violent comments….and when I checked in to their profiles, I see that many of these people had “favorited” certain videos that can only give the impression that we’re dealing with a lot of gun fanatics and racists in this country who are just about ready to go on a rampage.
I dunno, this probably isn’t something ya’ll want to discuss on a Monday morning, but do you guys have similar concerns?
I admit that living on the first floor of my aparment building has given me pause, especially since I have a private door to the outside.
hondje
The idea that everybody is armed and dangerous seems very dangerous.
I suspect that there are millions of Walter Mitty Sobchaks that have hand cannons by the dozen, and have always wanted to use them in an urban setting, not too far removed from John Goodman’s role in The Big Lebowski.
You’re in a world of pain Smokey
“”The idea that everybody is armed and dangerous seems very dangerous.”"
Of course only our altruistic government and miltiary should be armed. Them and criminals. What could possibly go wrong?
+1
Like my ol’ grandpappy taught me. The reason government wants to take away our guns is so that one day they can herd us around like cattle.
Amen!
When rulers seek to disarm the populace, that is the time to worry. They are dictators in the making.
Gun Sales Thriving In Uncertain Times
Warrenton gun shop owner Steve Clark said buyers fear restrictions on weapons that have been restricted before.
By Fredrick Kunkle
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, October 27, 2008; Page A01
Americans have cut back on buying cars, furniture and clothes in a tough economy, but there’s one consumer item that’s still enjoying healthy sales: guns. Purchases of firearms and ammunition have risen 8 to 10 percent this year, according to state and federal data. …”
WaPo
Front Page
I was talking with my brother this weekend. He works at a sporting goods store. Normally, when customers inquire about firearms, he asks what they will be hunting. Lately, he has had an increasing number of older men wanting to purchase firearms(shotguns in particular) that are not for hunting.
He nows asks his customers if they need a firearm for hunting or clearing a hallway.
I am not an old man and I am looking to purchase a shotgun. For home defense. I am looking for a short barel pistol grip, have not decided if I will be going with pump or semi auto.
I live in a good neighborhood, I am not really concered, I have been thinking about it for some time. I am also looking at getting another pistol.
The sould of a shotgun is very intimidating.
should watch my spelling
sould = sound
I think someone here recommend the Mossberg HS410. I might be getting one myself.
I’d go with a pump.
1) They tend to be a tad more reliable, won’t jam.
2) The sound of a pump-action shotgun is maybe the one universally understood communique. It transcends language.
Remington 870 pump. Reliable as can be, cheap, sold almost everywhere and plenty of accessories if you need/want them. 20 or 12 gauge. Ammo is also cheap. Old duck hunters always carry them as their back-up (Or main) gun. The joke is that you can use them as a paddle on the way out, shoot some ducks and paddle back in, all with your 870. I have a 12 and 20 gauge for my son.
Personally, I’d recommend a semi-auto, depending on if the person is experienced shooting. A pump can be “short-cycled”, jamming the weapon. This is more likely to happen if someone is not used to shooting a pump regularly. The pumps are more reliable when dirty, but dirt typically isn’t a problem for the typical home defence gun.
You need to think about which gun you could properly handle when going from relaxed, sitting on the couch, watching Bob Ross or the Antiques Roadshow….. to maxed out adrenaline if someone starts kicking your front door in.
Personally, I prefer the sound of a heavy bolt chambering a round of 30.06 in an M-1 Garand or SA M1A/M-14 ……that, and the “ping” of the clip being ejected after shooting 8 rounds, rapid-fire.
But I’m an old school sorta guy…….:)
I always thought there are better more technological ways to handle home intruders. It’s amazing what kind of high powered laser diodes you can get from China these days. Multiple watt infrared and UV for nothing. You might need to help the intruder find the door with his new permanent destructive lasik.
+1 on the 870. Remington at one time made a HD (home defense) version of the 870, not sure if they still do. DO NOT get a pistol grip! If you are forced to shoot someone and it goes to trial, you want a plain old regular looking shotgun, not something Rambo would use.
Mossberg 500, best reliable bang for the buck
“Remington 870 pump. Reliable as can be, cheap, sold almost everywhere and plenty of accessories if you need/want them. 20 or 12 gauge. Ammo is also cheap. Old duck hunters always carry them as their back-up (Or main) gun. The joke is that you can use them as a paddle on the way out, shoot some ducks and paddle back in, all with your 870. I have a 12 and 20 gauge for my son.”
And how. I have an 870 Wingmaster pump. I LOVE it. I’ve had it forever and ever, and it’s never let me down. Back in my sporting clays days, I’d school my buddies and their fancy Benelli’s ALL DAY LONG. Get an 870.
I’ll second the Remi, one of the best guns ever, especially for the cost.
When the benelli-owning dentists can’t shoot b/c they got ice on the action, the blue collar guy with the 870 will be sure and bring home enough duck for everyone.
With regard to operating a gun when excited, that requires practice and familiarity with the weapon, no matter if you have a pump or semi or what. Number 1 mistake probably every newbie gun owner has made is trying to fire with the safety on. If you don’t unconsciously check that and make sure it’s loaded then you just haven’t been shooting enough.
I have 2 870’s and 1187 and an o/u for pheasant, plus one great dog to hunt ducks and pheasant with. The 1187 is nice, but for most people I think the simple pump action is easier and safer. Plus is sounds great when you cycle it. Personally I’d rather have 5 rounds in the 1187, but I do not let me son use it yet, I want him to think about what he is doing rather than just blasting away. We guide for a lot of rich folks with amazing side by sides, but they can’t shoot for sh@@!
Mossberg 500 is what I have and it is a very nice 12 gauge pump for the money. They can be found for as little as $249 in my neck of the woods.
Light weight, reliable, and virtually identical to what the US Armed Forces use.
You must be mistaken. The Geneva Convention outlaws the use of shotgun shells by armed forces. Certainly, our military would never use them.
HAHAHA! Good one, Skip!
“2) The sound of a pump-action shotgun is maybe the one universally understood communique. It transcends language.”
Hence this sound makes a great doorbell.
Hondje,
Watching the rabid nutjobs have temper tantrums is sweet vindication to me. 2004 wasn’t all that long ago and these same cretins were full of arrogance and pride back then. Don’t expect these low intelligence voters to muster the mental fortitude to understand how they were played by their puppet masters who thrive on division.
We won’t be able to deal with these issues if people don’t declare themselves. There is so much subterfuge that no one is really sure if eschatological paranoia is a big or small minority view. I would love to see them called out.
You said ‘eschatological’.
I remember long ago when Professor Bear used ‘desuetude’. I knew right then this was the blog for me, what with everyone using those exciting big word thingies and being full of smartness and all.
‘It’s all been downhill since. Now we just pick on each other and stuff.’
This is so freakin’ true. It’s sad.
Hey, I just had a good idea, why doesn’t someone on here PRETEND to be a troll, and post some stuff? I don’t even care, I just miss the trolls.
Sigh. We shoulda captured one when they were still around and kept it locked in the basement, in ignorance, and then we could release it in times of emergency, such as right now.
You must’ve missed it.
Ben was on a NYC radio program, and the NYC trolls crashed the server (or so the theory goes.)
But we didn’t hear no chirping from them this time.
Oh well! All good things must come to an end.
Oly, before you, PB rewrote shakesphere sonnets and I got hooked. I wish PB would get artsy again. But that’s what Lad is for.
Polysyllabic words ‘n’ stuff…hehehe.
I write differently than I speak, thankfully. Here in Alaska I use a lot of “gonna’s”, “dunno’s” and “you betcha’s” just like Sarah Palin (whom I have grown to dislike), because I believe different levels of language should be used depending on your audience.
I learned that when I got teased pretty badly in grammar school for using big words from all the ‘grown up’ books that I read.
It’s the smartness of the folks on here that allows me to let my guard down a little
Exeter, It’s really gotten to point where you can’t just dismiss these people as “sore losers” or “cry babies” any more….I mean, yeah, I used to enjoy poking fun at the “barking mad” types like Rush Limbaugh, just like George Carlin or Al Franken did…but it’s now moved to something that I believe could lead to nasty stuff, and it’s not funny.
I know you probably don’t think it’s funny, either, but really, I think we’re heading in to the Year of Living Dangerously b/c there seem to be a lot more of these nutcases out there.
‘…there seem to be a lot more of these nutcases out there.’
My own suspicion is that there are always plenty of people with varying levels of craziness mixed in with the rest of us, much like rat turds in raisins, only they can maintain a bit better in good, easy times. Can manage to be a pretend raisin, so to speak, until their surroundings start to put extra stresses on them. Then their internal gyroscopes start to wobble, spin unevenly, start to waver…and sometimes you end up with a CNN moment, alas.
Here in the Tampa area, not too far north of me in the Clair-Mel neighborhood, a teacher recently shot a home invader who entered her house through the front door. She kilt him dead. It was him or her, since he, too, was armed. I don’t like to think people have to arm themselves, but I’m glad she won the confrontation.
I wonder if she sued his estate for the clean-up bill.
I would.
She should bill his estate for the cost of the round, too.
palmetto,
Ok, well, I’m not really getting at armed robbery and other types of violent crime we typically see when the economy goes south…..I’m talking about David Koresh X100,000, i.e. lots of criminally insane people armed to the teeth who hear voices in their heads and think they are receiving orders from God….It just seems like there are more of these people who have these types of ideas….
I don’t think it will be an issue. During the GD, crime against most folks didn’t jump a lot. Everyone was poor, so there wasn’t a bunch to steal from your neighbors. The crime went hardcore against the perceived rich though. So it might be a good time to trade in the Caddy for a used Pinto.
So it might be a good time to trade in the Caddy for a used Pinto.
Keep your profile low, that’s good advice — but I don’t think buying a Pinto was ever good advice, even when they were fresh off the assembly line. Turds with wheels.
The level of desperation goes up, but the level of bug-f@ck crazy is relativly constant, IMHO. Small time property crimes go up, but it seems like serial killing clowns and crazies in compounds stay the same.
I received an education about the horrors of cocaine, via a friend that had a thriving business, a beautiful wife, a Ferrari 308 and $250k in the bank, circa 1981…
Within 18 months his business, wife and money were gone, and the Ferrari got downsized to a Pinto with mag wheels~
Youtube and other such sites (Vimeo, etc.) have opened a new venue for the crazies. They were always there, but now they get high profile attention.
I agree that such attention can breed on itself, but for Pete’s sake, if you’re really that afraid, get out of the city!!! I’m in a small town, sure, there are crazies everywhere, but I don’t even lock my doors at night and if it came down to mass craziness, I still wouldn’t worry, cause I don’t have anything worth stealing except a camera or two, which I would gladly part with, who would want it anyway?
Fear is not a good way to live. It clouds your mind and hart. If you’re afraid, change your circumstance. If you’re willing to pay the price to live in fear, well, that’s just nuts, IMHO. Life’s too short. No job is worth living like that. Just my op.
My brother was going through the same thing, he told me, “I was all worried about Armagedden, then I realized I was really just worried about dieing, and I’m going to die anyway at some time, so why worry?”
Oh man, why would I ever worry about the economy and all that when I can just focus on my spelling…
“I was all worried about Armagedden, then I realized I was really just worried about dieing, and I’m going to die anyway at some time, so why worry?”
And then did you slap his face briskly and ask brightly ‘Did that help?’
I do that sometimes in those sorts of situations, now and then, under the theory that it joggles the anxiety away*. Because I’m a helpful kind of person, you see.
*Oh, don’t worry. This treatment doesn’t actually hurt anyone. I can’t get a good blow in with these accursed flimsy girl arms I got.
Knowing my little bro, he would just whack me back. I have him finally convinced that I know more than he does, but can’t get through that visceral reaction (maybe I should’ve been nicer when he was a baby, I didn’t realize he’d actually grow up).
RE: we’re dealing with a lot of gun fanatics and racists in this country who are just about ready to go on a rampage.
Little Bill Daggett: Well, I’m be damned, you low-down dog, Will Munny. You just shot an unarmed man”.
Will Munny: Well, I guess he’d had best armed himself, iffa he was gonna put my friend on display in front of his saloon.”
-”Unforgiven”
Make your own interpretations.
Little Bill Daggett (lying on the floor with a gun to his head): “i don’t deserve this…to die….like this”.
Will Munny: “deserve’s got nothing to do with it.”
BANG!!!
that’s my favorite line.
My favorite line is:
The kid (all tearful like): “Well, he had it coming, Will, he sure did.’
Will Munny: ‘We all got it coming’.
That is a great movie!
(I didn’t get that exactly right, but close enough.)
I think we’ve already had a collapse of social order! People just don’t realize it yet. We already have “Churches” trying to take over our government in California. Right now through mostly legal means, but that will change as things get worst and they feel more empowered.
churches taking over government, nothing new about that I think … most of EU history turns around that issue (at least in troubled times, in less troubled times nobody dared to fight the church running the government).
“I dunno, this probably isn’t something ya’ll want to discuss on a Monday morning, but do you guys have similar concerns”
I live in LA and am close to the ghetto. No concerns whatsoever.
LA Ghettos and inner city set to receive tons of fed jobs- training programs, housing assistance to low- income families, grant monies for youth programs,ect. Tons of Fed monies will be pumped into LA inpoverished areas under an Obama Presidency- he is now almost %100 certain to win .
The amt of fed assistance monies which will be directed into LA will somwhat alleviate restlessness & criminal activities among the poor inner city youths, thou LA crimes rates will still increase. Especially property crimes.
Yes. Watching those crazy McCain supporters yelling “kill him” and “terrorist” is scary enough, but did anyone else catch the video of the angry mob protesting people waiting on line to vote? This is nuts….
http://www.washingtontimes.com/weblogs/bellantoni/2008/Oct/20/mccain-supporters-call-early-voters-ch/
Wow, pretty scary stuff.
Ignoring the obvious racial implications, I find it interesting that the McCain supporters didn’t want people voting on a Sunday. A lot of poorer people can’t get off work on Tuesday, so voting on a weekend is more practical. To have a bunch of wingnut “elitists” trying to shout them down for doing their civic duty is just incredible to me.
When will the religiotards loosen their grip on national politics? The level of American political discourse because of these idiots drowns out any common sense.
“When will the religiotards loosen their grip on national politics?”
You can’t be serious. As opposed to who, the Gay Pride/Transgender/abortion crowd?? Surely you jest.
Ok, to phrase it precisely, when will the hypocrites loosen their grip on national politics?
Typical evang response, as if all liberals could be categorized so easily into an easy fitting troika?
Blano,
As a confirmed Atheist and Secular Humanist, I find it insulting that many of the self-appointed leaders of the Cult of the Wandering Magical Zombie Carpenter publicly label me a baby-eating, civilization-destroying terrorist because I support equal rights for all Americans, the right to privacy, and a constitutional government of earthly laws, not a theocracy.
Unlike some so-called Xtians, I at least know how to turn the other cheek…
“Now remember, things look bad and it looks like you’re not gonna make it, then you gotta get mean. I mean plumb, mad-dog mean. ‘Cause if you lose your head and you give up then you neither live nor win. That’s just the way it is. ”
- The Outlaw Josey Wales
RE: The Outlaw Josey Wales
Another lost anachronism…
The Clint Eastwood western…RIP
The people running their mouths are not the ones to worry about. Its the quiet one`s that sit back thinking how to make things very bad, are the ones I worry about.
lane
I’m taking orders for lawn signs.
“My doorbell has been replaced with a machinegun nest… Please Proceed with Caution”
Reminds me of the stickers I used to see on the front doors. “Trespassers will be shot, survivors will be prosecuted.” or “violators will be shot, survivors will be violated”.
“Trespassers will be shot, survivors will be shot again.”
Much of it is internet trolling, and little kids. I’ve seen it before. The internet bully threatening to beat up everyone in the hacker chat room. Then I finally meet this guy at a hacker conference in Atlanta in 1995… and he’s like 4.8″ toothpick running around laughing about everything. Wouldn’t stop giggling. People are different when they can be anonymous. Another friend is always really dirty online, but in real life he just sits quiet with a cat that ate the mouse grin. Don’t get too excited. Another guy we know ran with a group that loves to post racist stuff all over. Any race is victim, and the people themselves spread multiple races. The goal is to stir up the most controversy on whatever forum. Much of it is automated. It’s bizarre.
‘People are different when they can be anonymous.’
Really?! That doesn’t make sense. I act exactly the same on here as I do anywhere else, except that you guys can’t see me wave my hands around making eloquent gestures, bounce up and down in my chair, and spray chewed food crumbs all over when I try to talk and eat at the same time.
Good thing, too. You’d be appalled.
Truly, though. This is the only blog I look at, and I’ve always felt as if everyone was pretty much as they represent themselves. Isn’t that so? If it’s not so , that is a very disturbing thought to me.
Deckard: She’s a replicant, isn’t she?
Tyrell: I’m impressed. How many questions does it usually take to spot them?
Deckard: I don’t get it, Tyrell.
Tyrell: How many questions?
Deckard: Twenty, thirty, cross-referenced.
Tyrell: It took more than a hundred for Rachael, didn’t it?
Deckard: [realizing Rachael believes she's human] She doesn’t know.
Tyrell: She’s beginning to suspect, I think.
Deckard: Suspect? How can it not know what it is?
Summercon 95? I was there. Waterfalls running down the stairwells.
Financial Meltdown Worsens Food Crisis
As Global Prices Soar, More People Go Hungry
By Ariana Eunjung Cha and Stephanie McCrummen
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, October 26, 2008; Page A01
SHANGHAI — As shock waves from the credit crisis began to spread around the world last month, China scrambled to protect itself. Among the most extreme measures it took was to impose new export taxes to keep critical supplies such as grains and fertilizer from leaving the country.
About 5,700 miles away, in Nairobi, farmer Stephen Muchiri is suffering the consequences.
It’s planting season now, but he can afford to sow amaranthus and haricot beans on only half of the 10 acres he owns because the cost of the fertilizer he needs has shot up nearly $50 a bag in a matter of weeks. Muchiri said nearly everyone he knows is cutting back on planting, which means even less food for a continent where the supply has already been weakened by drought, political unrest and rising prices….”
WaPo
And some think prices are going to come down? Not.
hoz, what do you think of the ETF DBA? As always, thanks.
PS - I’d love to get you and Faster Pussycat in a bar to discuss deflation v. inflation.
‘PS - I’d love to get you and Faster Pussycat in a bar to discuss deflation v. inflation.’
Good lord, don’t talk so crazy! The bar would surely not survive it.
Heckfire, the city might not even survive it. So I urge you to have your little gathering in a stupid city, Lionel, because I like Seattle. It has Pike’s Place Market and some art stuff and Chinese markets and things, and I would hate to see it all go up in flames.
What’s a good stupid city, I wonder? Hmmmm. I know! Let’s sacrifice Des Moines! Or else Pocatello. I’m not attached to either of those ones.
Have you ever been to Akron?
‘Have you ever been to Akron?’
No. Does it suck? If so, we could have the Lionel, Hoz, and Faster meeting there, if you prefer.
I do not believe Des Moines or Akron actually exist.
I once remember that the character played by Katharine Hepburn in Summertime came from Akron. I just assumed that it was just as fictional as the film.
Can one destroy a fictional town? Let’s try.
Have the meeting in Oil City, PA. I’m sure everyone will love it there…
Business does not go into bars. I will chat up a storm about the Packers, hunting and pool - throw in some talk about the World Series and some Badger and Cardinal (nee Indians) games and we could have some fun.
I am not sure Faster is a deflationist. He’s a reasonable person with good instincts, thus he is willing to look at the other side and willing to change his opinion as the need arises. Like all traders, Faster is apt to change his opinions on a profit by profit basis.
Hoz and FPSS,
are on the same side of the inflation trade.
metal, oil, food….long side.
currency doesnt matter here.
I’m hearing similar stories from the developed world: prices for land, fertilizer etc. going up (despite POT stock crashing…) and prices for wheat etc. come crashing down; some rich farmers are starting to worry. And of course in Netherlands, farmers are starting to beg for more compensation from the government.
Not comparable to the Nairobi farmer, but some similarities apply. So I agree with hoz, all this ‘deflation’ talk is just a temporary scare while the monetary pumping is increased in the background.
As I posited yesterday… I believe we’re going to see deflation in producer countries, and inflation in consumer countries.
So, if Africa is a net importer of fertilizer (which I’m guessing it is), then it makes sense the cost of fertilizer will go up in Kenya, Johannesburg, and Cairo…
After they carry away all the bankers and hedge fund managers and mutual fund managers, the new moneys will be in legal assistance.
Defense Lawyers See Bonanza From Lehman, Bear, Other Collapses
By Patricia Hurtado, David Voreacos and Lindsay Fortado
Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) — Defense lawyers are bullish on Wall Street.
“…“There’s a very interesting ballet going on now between clients, lawyers and the investigating agencies,” said Harvard Law School professor Alan Dershowitz, who represented convicted 1980s junk bond king Michael Milken. “People are rushing to get the best lawyers before they can be hired by someone else.”
Bankrupt Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. alone is the subject of three federal investigations and at least 20 subpoenas. Markets for subprime mortgages, credit default swaps and auction- rate securities have come under scrutiny for possible fraud too. In New York, four former executives at Credit Suisse Group and Bear Stearns Cos. have already been charged with fraud….”
NPR this morning had a story about FBs who are killing themselves because they can’t pay for their houses.
It’s sad, but still you have to wonder what else–in a country where we let debtors start over with a clean slate with little penalty–we can do as a Nation.
My bet is that people who kill themselves when they lose their house is a correlation issue, not causation. My guess is that these folks lose their homes because they lost their jobs because they were deeply depressed, not the other way around.
Depression is a severe mental health issue that leads to a lot of financial and physical problems. Unfortunately, you can’t force people to seek help and usually at the point it is obvious that they need it they can’t afford it.
If you think about it, human beings are not real bright.
‘If you think about it, human beings are not real bright.’
I don’t think about it. I prefer to play with my fingers and think about this here banana and a paper-clip instead.
Too bad they wouldn’t take one for the team and go after a few “enrons” first, huh? (enron meaning white collar criminal that helped cause the current mess).
A few years late and a 1(00…) Trillion $ short, but a good article.
“The bundling of consumer loans and home mortgages into packages of securities — a process known as securitization — was the biggest U.S. export business of the 21st century.”
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a0jln3.CSS6c&refer=home
Core of the article:
“Securitization was based on the premise that a fool was born every minute,” Joseph Stiglitz, a professor of economics at Columbia University in New York, told a congressional committee on Oct. 21. “Globalization meant that there was a global landscape on which they could search for those fools — and they found them everywhere.” …Beginning about three years ago, investment banks revved the system’s engine to boost earnings.
“Globalization meant that there was a global landscape on which they could search for those fools — and they found them everywhere.”
Ummm, this doesn’t sound like “decoupling” to me.
I saw McCain on TV last night talking about his plan to solve the mortgage/housing problem and I just cant do it. I wont be voting at all this year - how depressing the whole situation is. I think I can go back to my plan of whoring out my vote to the highest bidder and that way at least there will be some personal gain which I can use to justify my vote. So my new plan is to call my Democrat friends and see what they will pay me to vote for Obama, then I can email all of my Republican buddies for better offers. I could maybe even start a website called voteauction dot com for people who want to captialize on their own voting despair.
Please consider voting 3rd party. I know it seems meaningless, but I can’t help thinking that we have to start somewhere.
The whole system is illegitimate anyway, so why give the process “legitimacy” by participating?
Selling out to the “powers that be” doesn’t help.
johnny is right. it is important to get the third party percentages up.
Just filled in my ballot for my old buddy Ralph Nader.
that’s the spirit!
Yes! Ralph Nader or Ron Paul (who seem to be working together at the moment).
Write them in. At least that way we can show our numbers and displeasure with the two-party system.
So my new plan is to call my Democrat friends and see what they will pay me to vote for Obama, then I can email all of my Republican buddies for better offers.
What state / district are you in?
Odds are your vote ain’t worth squat.
Modern campaigns have the demographic hot zones drawn quite precisely, and know exactly where the crucial points are, electorally speaking. While the backers of the Old Wrinkly Guy might angle for any possible votes, the map is looking increasingly unfavorable for him — and the trendline is lookin’ even sorrier.
Aunt an uncle were in town from Ohio. They are COMPLETELY tired of the campaign.
Few conservatives like to see McCain touting another f’d borrower bailout, but he is just trying to keep up. If you think McCain is going to reward debt junkies, Obama wishes to do so with some zeros at the end. McCain is just trying to keep up since the recession (or worse) was made apparent in September.
I had been eagerly awaiting the general public (partially) understanding what was understood at HBB for some time. It would have been nice if the revelation had been delayed 2 or 3 more months. A Pelosi/Rangel House and a Reid/Durbin Senate with a 60th Franken vote will wreak havoc with Obama at the other end of Penn Avenue.
The nastiness of major players in the Obama campaign (as opposed to youtube yahoos with no campaign affiliation) has really left me bitter. I understand that campaigns are not usually cordial, but I find the characterization of McCain as some sort of raging lunatic and/or doddering fool and/or the most radical right-winger in history to be bizarre. I think that their “erratic” ploy is too blatant to even count as a “code word.”
Funny, McCain is evil incarnate. The same guy that the Dem 2004 standard-bearer (Kerry) actively sought as his running mate. And the Dem 2000 running mate (Lieberman) has long been in McCain’s corner. But he is a right-wing extremist now.
Even Bill Clinton would not have engaged in the ageist BS.
The Mav’s campaign has been a travesty of dishonor — race baiting, “terrorist” insinuations, charges of elitism coming from a multi-millionaire, “Real America” v. everyone else, slimy robocalls, hiring the same Rove underlings that smeared him during his 2000 campaign — it’s shameful, really, that a guy that has been unfairly smeared before would stoop to such levels. (See South Carolina circa 2000 for some real below-the-belt stuff, courtesy of the MBA President).
Johnny’s done himself and his legacy a disservice by traveling the low road. And he’s gonna get whupped anyway. So, unlike the Texas Rodeo Clown, he won’t even be able to rationalize that the ends justify the means.
Announcer: This announcement is brought to you by the Shimato Dominguez Corporation - helping America into the New World.
As opposed to the civil GOP
I have people coming into work telling me Obama isn’t a US citizen, or he’s Muslim, ect ect
you have people at palin events calling him a terrorist and saying off with his head while Palin does nothing,
You have GOP congressmen and women saying he is anti American and should be investigated. I don’t see this from the Dems.
McCain sold out to the Neocon power structure and religious right that put GW into power. All of his campaign advisors are assoc w bushco or are former lobbiests. Phil Gram has played a big role in his economic polity. There is no way to come back to the center after that. I’ll take Volker and Buffet, and Collin Powel over that crowd any day of the week.
“As opposed to the civil GOP
I have people coming into work telling me Obama isn’t a US citizen, or he’s Muslim, ect ect
you have people at palin events calling him a terrorist and saying off with his head while Palin does nothing,”
Thanks for proving my point. Fringe elements in large crowds or Youtube Yahoos (as I referred to them) versus top Obama campaign officials, senior Democrat officeholders, and Obama himself engaging in the “erratic” smear. Obama used that word himself in one of the debates.
Yeah, and Obama accused McCain of “paling around with terrorists”.
Oh wait, that wasn’t Obama was it. Sorry for pointing out the obvious…
Leach the former 15-term congressman agreed that the McCain campaign’s aggressive approach to the campaign was turning off other moderate Republicans.
“It is pretty hard to identify with efforts to divide the country,” Leach said. “I don’t think negative campaigns should be rewarded. And this is a very dispiriting campaign that the McCain-Palin ticket is running.”
That’s a line of criticism other Republicans have echoed. Announcing his endorsement of Obama, Powell complained that the Republican Party had “moved even further to the right,” and said the McCain campaign’s recent criticism of Obama “goes too far.”
Former Michigan Gov. William Milliken, who endorsed McCain during the Republican primaries last year, publicly withdrew his support for McCain in early October but did not endorse Obama, saying: “I’m disappointed in the tenor and the personal attacks on the part of the McCain campaign, when he ought to be talking about the issues.”
Again
1. Palin says nothing as crowd calls Obama a terrorist, and says off with his head.
2. GOP congressmen and women on the record calling him anti - American and suggesting he should be investigated.
3. McCain trying to associate him with Ayers
IMO, voting for a 3rd party candidate - or writing in “none of the above” - sends a far stronger message. A no-show, to the major parties, indicates apathy or indifference. Although perhaps they should, the fact is that in no way do the two parties view stay-at-home registered voters as any kind of protest or threat to their dominance.
I was wondering if the end of the down payment assistence program ending on Oct. 1st had anything to do with the jump in sales?
September new home sales rise by 2.7 percent
Sales of new single-family homes rose by 2.7 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 464,000 homes, Commerce said. Economists had expected sales would drop from the August level.
The median price of a new home sold in September declined by 9.1 percent from a year ago to $218,400, the lowest price level since September 2004, a period when home prices were rising rapidly as the country experienced a five-year housing boom.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081027/economy.html
“September new home sales rise by 2.7 percent”
Define home sale for me! If I recall the same broadcast indicated a downward revision for last month of about 14% which would indicate home sales were called before completion of the contract.
Bingo! I had forgotten about that.
Is there anyway to short TPTB?
Don’t pay taxes
I was thinking guillotine.
When in the course of human events it becomes necessary for people to abridge their king…
-Ambrose Bierce
vote with your feet
kiwi boy.
–
TIPS Already Have PRICED-IN Deflation! Local Gas-Wars
I realize that Inflationists are smarter than the US Treasury markets. But for those of who look to the markets for clue, DEFLATION IS COMING SOONER THAN ANYONE EXCEPT A CRANK LIKE ME THINKS.
I was thrilled at getting my gas tank filled @$2.899 on Friday. On Sunday my two neighbors stopped by and told me that due to gas-wars the same station now is selling @2.659 and the other warring station @$2.679.
Enjoying Deflation,
Jas
–
TIPS Already Have PRICED-IN Deflation! Local Gas-Wars
I realize that Inflationists are smarter than the US Treasury markets. But for those of who look to the markets for clue, DEFLATION IS COMING SOONER THAN ANYONE EXCEPT A CRANK LIKE ME THINKS.
I was thrilled at getting my gas tank filled @$2.899 on Friday. On Sunday my two neighbors stopped by and told me that due to gas-wars the same station now is selling @2.659 and the other warring station @$2.679. That is down $1/gallon in about 3 months.
Enjoying Deflation,
Jas
I was told there is 2.05 gas floating around this morning. I didn’t pay attention coming in, but I did see 2.37 on Saturday.
$2.25 in Dallas-Ft Worth this weekend.
$2.29 yesterday in Jax, FL
Yesterday saw a bunch of stations in the southern Detroit ‘burbs at 2.45, then 2 of them at 2.29. Dropping like a rock.
3.54 in Anchorage AK
Say it ain’t so, Sarah!
Hey Halifax,
If you live here in Skankorage, we should get together for a drink sometime and a few laughs.
I made a lot of money 2 weeks ago when I bought TIPS and shorted Treasuries.
If you had brains, you would be buying TIPs now, that is what the government is selling this week. The US Government still has $900B in Treasuries to sell before the end of the year. The market is saturated.
Got a real currency like Yen?
don’t you think it is too late for yen?
–
You are becoming dusgusting by the day. Get lost! Or, get a life.
Jas
I am just saying that the yen looks over bought at these levels. I think we will see a pull back.
I think he was referring to the hoz man, Bronco.
Blano, I know. I was just messing with him. (and hoping for a response!)
Doe the Truth hurt you Jas ? I never called you disgusting, I just have reason to believe you are not working with a full deck. Of course many others believe that you are just an opinionated bigot, but I don’t believe that about you. I just feel sorry for you.
what about my yen?
I will always be long at the top, I will always be short at the bottom. The fundamentals for the Yen going to 85 maybe even 75 are real. That does not mean it will happen.
Purchasing power parity is 83-87 Yen to the dollar. I would not get out of Yen until there is stability in EM currencies. And the countries that wish to buy goods can get financing again. There is no foreign trade because US banks are effectively shut down. China and Japan have not yet decided if they will fill the gap.
Your yen for what?
sell yen, if you made money.
short bonds of any Sovereign.
long inflation…..its coming, its gonna be disaster..
gold, silver, base metals, any food, oil and gas….
dont matter….money is no object.
for sushi.
paid $2.47 on Sunday. Prices never bothered me too much as I am not far from work and get good mpg. But my wife is probably paying $40 less per week then she was a few months ago. Back down to 2005ish levels.
again, NO sign of deflation in Europe (and probably most of the non-US world). Gas at the pump down to about $ 7 instead of close to $ 10, but that’s about the only pricecut that comes to mind. With wages increasing 4-10% in many EU countries, and central banks pumping like mad, general deflation is impossible.
Just watch what happens to prices in the US when the current dollar shortsqueeze ends.
Smokey, this is not ‘Nam. This is bowling. There are rules.
LOL!!
Just checked camera prices and found that they were giving a $300 instant rebate, no sales tax, and six months same as cash. That’s enough incentive to move me from the sidelines to a buyer. Yes, I could wait it out, but I want the camera for the holidays and $2900 with no tax beats the prior $3500 with taxes.
Was in Carmel this weekend and the high end shoppes were telling me that sales are dire. Again, someone is making me an offer on a piece of art that I’ve been watching for over a year and I’m getting close to dealing.
whatcha getting?
I’m eyeing a bunch of video gear being sold on Craigslist by a guy who did slick house videos for realtors, he’s outta biz and selling some cool stuff cheap.
I want the new Nikon D700 that I can use all my old Nikon lens with in addition to the new. Camera will let me do a lot of fun things.
get me one, too.
I’m still waiting for a smokin’ deal on a Disney vacation next year.
on the digital camera forums they are now discussing Canon and Nikon stock prices, instead of pixels and similar stuff
A little help here…
Does anyone know of a long or double long treasury bond ETF that could be short sold?
I looked but was unable to find such a beast.
Thx in advance,
Dude
RYJUX
Thanks.
Oops, that wasn’t it. That’s the inverse of what I want.
IEF, TLT are example of long funds. I want an ultra long ETF to short.
Wall Street workers leaving NYC for fresh start
Sunday October 26, 2:53 pm ET
By Valerie Bauman, Associated Press Writer
Amid downturn, Wall Streeters leaving NYC for smaller firms in other states, overseas
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081026/wall_street_exodus.html
Not sure if this made it on here yesterday…
I wonder if they saw that one on Curbed and Brownstoner.
NYC and Silicon Valley are the ultimate “gold rush” towns. Very few live here permanently. They come in, make their dough (or not), and go to wherever they came from.
Impossible to build community as my friends point out.
With global trade dwindling daily, might prices on Chinese goods be at their cheapest levels, and maximum availability, currently?
It might be a good time to stock up on this, that and whatever…
What are they gonna do? Shutter the factories, and fire the workers, and have them start a revolution?!?
Read a micro textbook. The margins will get crushed but they will be forced to churn out goods.
Agree completely, which is why I don’t think the U.S. will fall into a Greater Depression at this point. The Chinese will have to continue to trade us actual things for our electrons for the foreseeable future.
It’s a kind of long term mutually assured economic destruction though…
Only as long as the electrons can buy things… if the dollar crashes then it isn’t worth their time to build things.
“What are they gonna do? Shutter the factories, and fire the workers, and have them start a revolution?!?”
We already discussed this; half the toy factories are already closed and 20 million out of work.
Try to keep up!
Yes.
If I did that, then I’d have to lock my doors at night.
from what I heard, many Chinese prices started rising at least half a year ago. But it might still be a good time to stock up on certain things, especially stuff that is sold below actual cost (and there is still a lot of it, but I guess that too will end).
I ordered a new bed and the expected delivery date keeps getting pushed back. I have a funny feeling that it will never arrive. Of course they charged my credit card the moment I ordered it. I know you have 90 days to get charges taken off, which I might have to do.
I’m thinking about getting new eyeglasses because I’m also concerned that things will be unavailable for a while.
Clothes for the kids I tend to buy a year (sometimes more) in advance to get a good deal.
Just a thought here. Virtually nothing written here so far has been about housing. It seems that people on this blog believe what has happened is bigger than the housing bubble and bust.
Yet I hear pundits saying that if housing prices can be stabilized, all the rest is solved, because the decline in housing values is driving every other financial and economic problem around the globe.
True?
I knew the housing bubble wasn’t the big enchilada, but we needed it to get to where we are at now…
It did it’s job.
True. The housing bubble was the common ground on which everyone could relate and begin to discuss the issues. If the blog was entitled The Debt Leverage and Derivative Product Con Game, we would lose 80% of the viewers. Sometimes you have to use the back door.
Just for you Alad
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/10/26/business/bury.php
“I haven’t forgotten history,” says Gert Heinz, a tax adviser in Munich. “If you depend on paper money you can lose everything. We’ve learned that the hard way after two world wars.”
So when Chancellor Angela Merkel went on television recently to tell Germans that their bank accounts were safe, Heinz, who at 68 still remembers the rows of canned food that his mother hoarded in the attic, decided he would rather be safe than sorry.
He converted another chunk of his savings into gold and stocked up on a six-month supply of rice, sugar, flour and a special brand of milk powder that lasts for half a century.
“Yet I hear pundits saying that if housing prices can be stabilized, all the rest is solved,…”
Not all pundits are saying this…It is mainly limited to U.S. pundits with inside political connections.
West’s toxic assets ‘not yet flushed out’
Published: October 26 2008 18:58 | Last updated: October 26 2008 18:58
By David Pilling
Western banks may still not have produced reliable accounts of their balance sheets, suggesting more write-downs and capital injections could be necessary, according to Heizo Takenaka, the former Japanese economy minister often credited with ending the country’s 10-year banking crisis.
Mr Takenaka, who from 2001 forced banks aggressively to write down bad loans and to repair balance sheets by raising capital, said “more intellectual effort” was needed by western institutions to flush out the full extent of toxic assets. These were more complicated and harder to identify than in Japan’s more straightforward banking crisis, he said.
“The balance sheets of international institutions are not so reliable at this moment,” Mr Takenaka said in an interview with the Financial Times. “The Japanese experience shows capital injection is important, but not enough,” he said, adding Japan’s banking crisis continued for several years after state funds were injected, first in 1998, then 1999 and in 2003.
For reference, the onset of the Japanese banking crisis was 1989 or so (9 years before the earliest date referenced above)…
I find it troubling that so many believe that keeping housing prices artificially high will magically solve everyone’s problems.
Pols have a tendency to focus on symptoms. FDR went to great extents to prop up prices of all sorts, because he perceived THE PROBLEM as being falling prices, which are really a corrective event.
Oddly enough, I’ve talked to a few people that are currently looking at buying housing. They feel that there has been some break in prices, their jobs are stable enough, the tax benefits would be good, and they are ready to move on with their lives. Much of it comes back to having kids that are getting older.
I believe trends in California show that there is demand at the right price. Interest rates are still low.
As long as conforming loans are available, cheap housing will sell, or at least rent. After all the whining about affordable housing, people need to look at this as good news.
Just think of the (soon to be) poor wealthy investors who would lose a fortune if measures to prop up home prices at the taxpayer’s expense are not soon adopted (or if they are adopted but don’t work). Cry me a river!!!
“[I]f housing prices can be stabilized, all the rest is solved, because the decline in housing values is driving every other financial and economic problem around the globe.”
The problem is too much debt leverage. All debt, including housing falls in the same pot. The concept that if we can just continue to over-value debt everything will be ok is nonsensical. There is no way that we can or should help those that over-extended themselves with the expectation of abnormal appreciation. With debt obligations of $100 or more per $80 of FMV of assets someones got to take huge hits. The only real question is who and when.
Oil falls below $62 on economic gloom
Mon 27 Oct 2008, 11:00 GMT
…
Gloom about the world economy overshadowed OPEC’s deal on Friday to chop output by 1.5 million barrels per day, which some traders have said will not be enough to arrest the price slide.
“I think OPEC has actually taken a fairly decisive step to cut production but the oil market is obviously just focusing on economic woes at the moment,” said David Moore, a commodities strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Oil prices have more than halved since they hit a record high of $147 a barrel in July.
I must confess that I was wrong on the direction of oil prices and lost $500 on my oil price hedges. The sad thing is I have maintained my belief of short-term deflation before hyperinflation, yet could not get myself to *bet* on the short-term deflation.
If Opec is cutting production, then it means demand has fallen off a cliff…. the question is who has stopped buying gas/oil? If the price has fallen by 50% even while the supply has shrunk then that represents a massive drop in demand.
I heard that we were increasing our oil reserves while prices were going up and are now selling into this decline… what happens after the election?
Dan,
I changed my oil consumption drastically this summer.
I took my cabin cruiser for a two week trip, as I did last year, but I went 5 knots rather than 10 to 20, and traveled 100 miles total rather than 500. I used a tiny fraction of the gas, close to 1/20th.
Many others displayed similar shifts in consumption.
“If Opec is cutting production, then it means demand has fallen off a cliff…. the question is who has stopped buying gas/oil? If the price has fallen by 50% even while the supply has shrunk then that represents a massive drop in demand.”
I live in a rural area. There are more Toyota Prius’ than one can shake a stick at. Most of these are new. These people sold the gas hog and bought the gas sipper. They’ve more than doubled their fuel efficiency, cutting their demand by more than 50%. Personally, I was able to cut my monthly fuel costs almost in half without even changing vehicles, simply by restructuring the way I live. Consumer spending is down, which has led to less demand for imports, which means lower production and less energy needed, which means fewer cargo ships fueling up, fewer long haul truckers, and fewer cargo containers for the rails. It’s quite easy to see where the lack of demand comes from.
Also, add in the repossessed vehicle’s from dead-beat homeloaners.
Many airlines are cutting back on flights too.
“The sad thing is I have maintained my belief of short-term deflation before hyperinflation, yet could not get myself to *bet* on the short-term deflation.”
JOIN THE CLUB
+2
-1 or make that -2 since I was actually leveraged for a change (oh the shocker!)
-1
$500? My loss on oil/gas so far is > $20,000. I wished I had only lost $500.
Am thinking about selling my pickup/camper rig. Now would be the time, methinks.
The next president should stick a knife into OPEC and raise gas taxes. Then hand out rebate checks at the end of the year with all the money raised.
FWIW, OPEC is the friend of those who want the U.S. to become energy self-sufficient.
Cheap oil kills any incentive to develop energy alternatives.
CHANGE AMERICA CAN BELIEVE IN.
raise the tax on OIL and GAS…
bound to raise a price or two.
we are in an outright global currency collapse in the great deflation of global securitization.
global security cannot be on the backs of more Americans, how bout a global security tax?
1981…the end of the “individual”, and the beginning of “the people”…
the boomers are all growed up.
I just received credit card with a zero interest for one year. It’s from wamu which is not my bank. they want me to switch now! I guess having a real credit score accounts for something. Sorry, but credit cards are for medical deductables, not mochachinos.
Yeah, but if you buy enough mochachinos with your card you get a free trip to…somewhere.
Conform now.
Wal-Mart (WMT 50.90, -0.50) said at its analyst day conference that credit as a percent of total sales has declined 7.4% year-to-date, noting that its customers are starting to max out their credit cards.
Yahoo
This is what I said yesterday. Is Walmart going to buckle at the knees?
BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAHAAA!!!!!!
Art?
http://cbs2.com/local/Sarah.Palin.ma….2.849299.html
I get a message that says “bad request”
And here are our Winners!
Among the banks to receive approval for government funds are Capital One ($3.55 billion), Fifth Third Bancorp ($3.4 billion), BB&T Corp. ($3.1 billion), KeyCorp ($2.5 billion), Comerica Inc. ($2.25 billion), Northern Trust Corp. ($1.5 billion), Huntington Bancshares Inc. ($1.4 billion), First Horizon National Corp. ($866 million), City National Corp. ($395 million), Valley National Bancorp ($330 million), UCBH Holdings Inc. ($298 million) and First Niagara Financial Group Inc. ($186 million).
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081027/meltdown_banks.html?.v=1
Hey, got my Gold AMEX card today, no fees, no limit.
Sort of a surreal feeling, since I’m not even employed.
Anybody need anything?
It’s funny you mention AMEX, since that CC company is credit profiling it’s customers by high foreclosure areas. Even people with a good payment history are getting letters… check this 4 min audio out on NPR:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=96154274
I I think they know I’m gonna make it big in video and want to say I’ve been a card user since 2008, like they do with all those rich and famous people in their ads.
In any case, I probably won’t use it much, if at all, but it’s good for amazing my friends.
I remember you saying something about this last week. How the heck were you able to get one???
I haven’t a clue. When she asked for my permanent address, I told her it was a PO box, I moved a lot, she said, OK.
She didn’t ask about wages, job, any of that, or even if I rented/owned, nothing.
I think it was a test to see if you could use one out in the desert outback, they’re gonna use me in an ad someday.
But now I gotta find a place to use it, nobody around here will take the darn things. Guess I’ll have to plan a trip to NY or San Fran. I need some new hiking boots anyway.
HOAs are a control freak’s dream come true (Grand Junction, CO):
www dot gjsentinel dot com
Signs of trouble? Neighborhood divided over political displays
The signs are looking a bit troubling in the Grand View Homeowners Association.
Residents in this 198-home subdivision northeast of Patterson and 28 roads are banned from placing political campaign signs in their yards. The president of the HOA, Tom Lowrey, is so adamant about enforcing the association’s rule that he has taken it upon himself to walk the neighborhood and uproot all campaign signs.
“He took my signs down Wednesday evening,” Grand View resident Jim Rozman said. “And he did it to my neighbor as well.”
Bill Bradshaw is an eight-year resident of the subdivision and a former member of the subdivision’s board of directors.
“We had our signs out under the window,” Bradshaw said. “He came up, took the signs down and didn’t knock on the door or anything and left us a note that the (covenants and restrictions) for the Grand View Homeowners Association say you can’t have any political signs up.”
When he was a member of the board, Bradshaw said he agreed with the HOA’s rules. Since then, the state Legislature passed Senate Bill 100 in 2005, which appears to allow HOA residents to display political signs for 45 days prior to the election and for several days after.
“That bill does not apply to our neighborhood association because our dues are less than $300 a year, and we have an attorney’s opinion on this,” Lowrey said.
The issue boils over every election season.
“In 2004 I put a Bush-Cheney sign up, and I got a letter from the president of the homeowners association threatening legal action,” Rozman said.
He said his plan this year was to do the same thing he did in 2004: Throw the letter away, keep the signs up and wait until after Election Day for the whole matter to blow over. But it is not blowing over.
“This issue is going to small claims court,” Lowrey said.
Lowrey, a Grand Junction attorney, said residents are allowed to place campaign signs in their windows, but they are not allowed in yards. He said the First Amendment is no defense against the HOA’s rules.
“Homeowners associations are private organizations. The First Amendment does not apply to private organizations. They apply to governments,” he said.
That argument has no traction with Sen. Josh Penry, R-Grand Junction.
“I think that is a tortured legal argument,” Penry said. “I don’t care if you are a John McCain supporter or a Barack Obama supporter, you ought to be able to put a political sign in your yard. This is America, for heaven’s sake.”
Another family values republican found to be felonious by a jury of his peers. What hypocrites they are. And to think this corrupt bribe accepting thief gets to keep a pension? It’s beyond outlandish.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/AP/story/743796.html
Anybody have any ideas about which bank might slip into trouble a la Lehman or Bear Stearns? Or now that the government is sending out money to everybody will there be no more failures?
Cute…. real cute… Two rightwing conservative hate groups plotting to assassinate Obama. All the monsters of this particular breed need to be incarcerated.
http://www.reuters.com/article/vcCandidateFeed7/idUSTRE49Q7KJ20081027
Hoz,
What do you think of the idea of shorting UUP (double long USD).
I could use that as my short and counter with a long Yen position. My thinking includes what you’ve pointed out in the past about ETFs, especially levered ones, that 1.1*.9=.99, not 1.0. The decay rate only makes it less risky, no?
Thanks
Wait a few weeks ’til there is stability in the EM currencies.
We had a most cosmopolitan summer here in the High Sierra, running into oh so many Europeans and other foreigners living it up on la vida cheapo Dollar.
My favorite was a German family on rental Harley Davidsons that I ran into pumping gas. It was 3 generations…
Grandparents, parents and children aged around 65-45-25, Easy Riders on a 3 week swing seeing what Karl May never saw(he never made it further west than Buffalo), cruising through the American West like later-day Winnetous.
housing bubble hits sheepherders:
http://westslope.craigslist.org/rvs/894927370.html
Hoz, FPSS or anyone else versed in such matters — should the vertically-directed kink in this graph worry me?
“Series: BASE, St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base”
For what little it’s worth, having just returned from three l-o-n-g months in oil-land, I voted today. Wrote-in Ron Paul for prez and voted against every incumbent. Felt great. Will never vote for the lesser of two evils. My votes won’t affect any outcome, but hopefully if enough people vote against the establishm’t system, at least some of the media will report it. Still buying stock in pitchfork manufacturers.
Just voted for Obama. I would not risk contributing to a McPalin-Cain win by voting on the basis of principles…
A man appreciating statistics the way you do, surely understands that you could have not voted at all, voted for McCain or Obama or voted for anyone else and your vote would have had an effect so close to zero as to practically be, for all intents and purposes, zero.
In a close election, there is always some chance that you will be the median (aka deciding) vote.
Of course, it is a bit moot to think along these lines if you live in California, where an Obama win is a given. Not so moot for Ohioans, though.
Didn’t you say you wouldn’t vote for anybody how voted for the bailout?
It’ll probably show up twice, but I thought you said you wouldn’t vote for somebody who voted for the bailout…Indeed, even below you’re wanting people “to let your Congressional incumbents know what you think of their votes on the bailout next week in the ballot box”. Seems to me Obama voted for the bailout. How come you’re not letting him know what you think of him?
Well, the obvious (smart-assed) answer is Obama isn’t running for Congress.
More likely, since they both supported the bailout, is that BO presents PB with the least risk.
I ain’t mad atcha, PB.
I just couldn’t risk bearing partial culpability for a Palin presidency in 2012.
I’m with ya. I’ve mentioned many times my desire to right in Paul/Kucinich. They seem to tell me the truth, which I happen to like, no matter how much it hurts.
However, I’d rather have BO than another stinky Bush.
Yeah, I noticed the smart-assed aspect. I assume we can all see through that.
Maybe all the other people don’t want to risk bearing partial culpability for the opponent of their incumbent! I ain’t mad atcha either, PB. I’m disappointed. It’s always disappointing when somebody won’t stick up for their principles - especially when the person is asking others to vote on a principle: the principle that if somebody voted for the bailout they should be voted out.
“Write”…gah!
Grass-roots has to start somewhere….why not at the top?
The St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base is currently exploding at the fastest rate since the 1930s. But not to worry — I am sure all is contained, guaranteed, etc.
Be sure to let your Congressional incumbents know what you think of their votes on the bailout next week in the ballot box. BTW, all the evidence thus far suggests that claims the bailout would somehow fix anything were greatly exaggerated.
Money. My guy was against the bailout and is replacing a Dem who voted for the bailout. And he’s a Dem (she’s not running again). Woot! The regulation part I’d like to know more about though…
“Kurt Schrader did not support the “bailout” that was recently approved by Congress. Kurt is extremely concerned that we are bailing out multi-national corporations and millionaire CEOs while letting middle class families slip. Kurt believes Congress needs to address the unsound mortgage practices that got our nation into this mess.
Many mortgages are bundled by mortgage brokers so homeowners have a difficult time if they need to refinance. Kurt Schrader believes Congress should take action to better regulate the mortgage lending industry and protect regular Oregon families.”
October 27, 2008
10:23 P.M. ET
MarketWatch.com
BULLETIN
Asian stocks retreat again
Sell-off continues as U.S. losses, fear of global recession, local issues combine to send Japan, South Korea, regional markets lower. If trend holds, Nikkei 225 would suffer fifth straight losing session. Japanese financial, exporter shares hit hardest.
Singapore -7.4%
Kuala Lumpur -6.1%
Wellington -2.9%
Seoul -2.4%
Sydney -2.2%
Tokyo -1.1%
How would one of you chartists read this one? Anytime I see a spike like this …it usually ends….badly?
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3
agreed. what is the ETF for the inverse?
Especially hit the max chart button. It really looks like rocket
ride to the moon……….
Trade-weighted value of the dollar
Note: A long-term chart suggests that big spikes in the value of the dollar towards the end of a recession are fairly typical (not to suggest this one is near the end, though…).
Here is something that might be worth chewing on, given the ongoing debate over gold and paper around these parts. Hoz — do you know any of these fellows?
Bordo, Michael D.; Dittmar, Robert D.; and Gavin, William T. (2007) “Gold, Fiat Money, and Price Stability,” The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics: Vol. 7 : Iss. 1 (Topics), Article 26.
Available at: http://www.bepress.com/bejm/vol7/iss1/art26
Abstract
The classical gold standard has long been associated with long-run price stability. But short-run price variability led critics of the gold standard to propose reforms that look much like modern versions of price-path targeting. This paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to examine price dynamics under alternative policy regimes. In the model, a pure inflation target provides more short-run price stability than does the gold standard and, although it introduces a unit root into the price level, it leads to as much long-term price stability as does the gold standard for horizons shorter than 20 years.
I know this is a bit long, but I believe this article offers a clear picture of what is coming down the policy turnpike. I also have no link to the full article.
Financial Times
Add ‘financial stability’ to the Fed’s mandate
By Stephen Roach
Published: October 27 2008 19:46 | Last updated: October 27 2008 19:46
…
I am not suggesting the Fed develops numerical targets for asset markets. It should have discretion as to how it interprets the new mandate. Yes, it is tricky to judge when an asset class is in danger of forming a bubble. But hindsight offers little doubt of the bubbles that developed over the past decade – equities, residential property, credit and other risky assets. The Fed wrongly dismissed these developments, harbouring the illusion it could clean up any mess later. Today’s problems are a repudiation of that approach.
There is no room in a new financial stability mandate for bubble denialists such as Alan Greenspan, the former Fed chairman. He argued that equities were surging because of a new economy; that housing forms local not national bubbles and that the credit explosion was a by-product of the American genius of financial innovation. In retrospect, while there was a kernel of truth to all of those observations, they should not have been decisive in shaping Fed policy. Under a financial stability mandate, the Fed will need to replace its ideological convictions with common sense. When investors buy assets in anticipation of future price increases the Fed will need to err on the side of caution and presume that a bubble is forming that could threaten financial stability.
The new mandate would also encourage the Fed to deal with excesses by striking the right balance between deploying its policy interest rate and other tools. In times of asset-market froth, I favour the “leaning against the wind” approach with regard to interest rates – pushing the Federal funds rate higher than a narrow inflation target might suggest. But there are other Fed tools that can be directed at financial excesses – margin requirements for equity lending as well as controls on the issuance of exotic mortgage instruments (zero-interest rate products come to mind). In addition, the Fed should not be bashful in using the bully pulpit of moral persuasion to warn against the impending dangers of asset bubbles.
“moral persuasion” and “Fed” are used in the same sentence. Inconceivable.