Bits Bucket For October 29, 2008
Please visit the HBB Forum. Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Please visit the HBB Forum. Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
Area’s rents up 4.2% in one year
Analysts cite higher demand amid surge in home foreclosures
By Kimberly Blanton
Globe Staff / October 29, 2008
Rents in the Boston area spiked 4.2 percent over the past year, the biggest increase in seven years, while rising foreclosures and a slumping housing market pushed more people into apartment living.
Average monthly rent in the metropolitan area increased to $1,659 in the third quarter, from $1,592 a year earlier, according to a report from Reis Inc., a New York research firm that tracks rents for apartments in buildings with at least 40 units. Boston’s increase exceeded the national rise of 3.5 percent, Reis said.
Rents are up because families who are losing their homes in foreclosures are driving up demand for apartments, housing analysts said. As demand rises, it becomes easier for landlords to raise the rent.
Rapidly falling house prices also have put buying on hold for many potential homeowners, who are staying put in their apartments as they wait to see how low prices will go….
Hmmmm.
That goes against what I have seen in my neck of the woods. I see lots of properties that are empty, not rented, and Landhoarders jacking up prices, but not filling… On some other places I can still get first month free type deals, or no security deposit, etc.
It does not matter how much they ask, as what matters is how much they can get paid. MA is notorius for tenant rights, and you can stop paying rent, and go 5-6 months without being evicted if you are crafty enough… So lots of these people pay 6 months rent for the first 5 months, and they just ignore the LL until the sheriff shows up!
Same here. I know I live in insignificant NNV, but rents are dropping like the leaves out here. We got 1900sqft homes built in the last 3 years renting for $950. Still can’t buy ‘em for under 300k, though. Got a way to go in NNV, but we’re getting there.
REskeptic, it sounds like you’re hoping beyond all hope that you didn’t significantly overpay for your tundra cabin.
You should know by now that Kim Blanton and The Beantown Glob lead the cheer for the National RE scammers. You may have gotten scammed but it’s not the end of the world.
I just posted it as we have discussed the effects of the bubble on rentals, it seemed germane. I can’t see any relationship, whatsoever, between Boston rents and my cottage purchase. Then again, I didn’t see any between my call/question of my DIA position and the cottage, but you saw that one yesterday as well and mad eit an issue. Luckily, that worked out great for me yesterday and the 2009 carrying costs for the property are now covered. Still waiting to hear from you what you are investing in or doing. At some point you have to be for something, not against everything. Just wait until Barry & Co. get into the Whitehouse and then you’ll ‘ have to start being for something and we’ll get to sit back a lob bombs….
Skeptic,
Need I remind you that this is the housing bubbleblog? Don’t expect anyone here to offer trade confirmation and housing market boostering regarding the inflated price you paid for a shack in the middle of nowhere. It ain’t gonna happen. And in case you haven’t observed, most of us here will eloquently shred any bit of bubble denial at the drop of a hat.
Ex, Was going to do a long reply but thought better of it. I’ll leave well enough alone and go back to the Bits and discussions of gold, silver, oil, stocks and macro/micro economics I enjoy here knowing that every single real estate deal done since 2005 has been sold to a sucker.
Who cares about rents in buildings above 40 units? Who would want to live in such a big place? The same kind of BS is regularly published here in Seattle. It doesn’t affect me much, as I rent a SFH.
Lionel,
Good point. No one lives in that scenario unless it’s either very temporary in nature or they have no other choice. Besides the avg. rent increase in Boston came to about $67 bucks. ( Beat me with a wet noodle why dontcha’ ?)
When compared to the rate the avg. home there is depreciating that would about cover an elevator ride to the lobby?
“No one lives in that scenario” ???????????
Actually. There are quite a number of larger so-called ‘luxury’ apartments in the Boston burbs, and despite their characterization, in a fair number of them, bed sheets double as curtains.
But I am sure many occupants drive brand new SUVs and eat out a lot.
So it’s not the size. It’s the quality of buildings. It’s the quality of inhabitants.
Out of curiousity, does anyone have anecdotal or other data on Seattle SFH rents? I’m renting a SFH in Ballard at the moment. My LL told me he may increase my rent early next year. The story he gave me was that his expenses for the house were going up. But it is paid off, and when I pulled the property tax data from King County, he actually had a small reduction from last year to this year.
Go looking for another place. If you can get a better deal, then tell him so.
Anyone going to watch the O’Bama infomercial tonite? Crikey, who’d a thunk presidential politics would ever come to this. As if I’d believe a program any politician produced about themselves.
I miss the Ross Perot type. “Now comon let open the hood and see whats wrong!”
We did a Major disservice to him in 96. He had like $18 million of our tax money and the powers that be refused to allow him into the debates…because he was being frugal with the limited cash he had to spend.
And of course the media didst even assign a news crew to follow his speeches, so he was shut out from even the new fox news channel…so much for “Fair and Balanced” reporting in America
But then again so much for my station CourtTV who was gutless too.
Here we had a real legal argument, about being denied access to the presidential debates, and even Terry Moran couldn’t do much at Court TV to get the issue on the air.
there was no FNC back then
Yes there was. They were in hiring mode in the 96 elections that was the big push to get election coverage going. My fiend was the production hiring manager. Fox’s biggest blunder was election coverage was only available on cable and not on the fox’s over the air tv stations..
FNC Launched October 7, 1996
Thats only 28 days before the election.
I think the bigger blunder was not launching earlier to take advantage of the political ad money.
agreed they also had building issues…the ac in the studio and tape room was not big enough to handle the heat, and other electrical problems.. plus water problems that delayed them a month maybe 2 months
it started in Oc. 1996 so didn’t have much time to cover Perot, that’s for sure..
Remember they have over the air tv stations they fed their own reports too…so they could have easily had a news crew assigned to Perot months before…but Management wanted nothing to do with equal opportunity for 3rd parties or to have an alternative voice, and air time.
Not much different then todays fox news
You’re wrong. Perot did participate in a televised debate. He wasn”t shut out, he withdrew himself from the campaign, claiming a conspiracy involving the Bush team and threats of doctored photographs from his daughter’s wedding. He later re-entered the race, but the damage he’d done to himself could not be reversed.
Fox News wasn’t established till 1996, four years AFTER Ross Perot’s bid for the presidency.
I’m ignoring the 1996 run because it was joke. By then he was widely regarded by the public as a goof, and most of his original supporters had fled.
The Republican and Democratic Parties control the debates, moreso now that ever.
NBC and CNBC don’t even try to appear non-partisan this time around. I’ve never seen anything like it. CNN, NBC, and CNBC could be called the New Religion Channels.
No he had $18 million of your tax dollars to spend bout 1/3 or the other parties…and was saving it to spend after the debates…
Kook or not is about YOUR TAX MONEY you check off each year to provide money for the elections…
Even Ralph Nader can barely get on TV anymore
But Brittney can almost every day now she has a top 10 single…aimed for the 8th grade educated Merickanz
—————————–
I’m ignoring the 1996 run because it was joke. By then he was widely regarded by the public as a goof, and most of his original supporters had fled.
To Perots’ credit he called it:
If NAFTA gets passed = Giant sucking sound. Huge rush of outsourcing.
Also Gore : If Bush is elected the top 1% will steal every last dime. so true.
…Not that I am defending either one, nor voted for them. Just wanted to point out there are words of wisdom from both sides.
It seems like a silly move. He has this thing in the bag. The only thing a self-serving 30-minute commercial can possibly do is to turn people off. His campaign should cancel these spots.
I haven’t seen the spot - what’s the gist?
Leigh
It’s tonight.
On the contrary, I believe this country is in big trouble, and Obama needs to start leading right now.
McCain should have done a half hour too.
Unless Obama is a great President, and the Democratic congress does a great job working with him (unlike 1977 to 1980 and 1993 to 1994), Obama might be the last real democratic President we have. Small d intentional.
Either way, he will be the most powerful president since Nixon thanks to Dick Cheney. You won’t see him cancel warrant less eavesdropping.
i would prefer he uses that power to eavesdrop on every member of this outgoing administration.
Just arrest them all. It would be easier.
They will be too busy chasing “Joe The Plumber” or “Tito the Builder”. Ben may want to watch his back too.
If he doesn’t have it in the bag, maybe he’ll turn some of the independents and sway some undecideds.
If he does have it in the bag, then he’s at least making an attempt to bridge the rift, which is the message he’s been hammering recently (”we don’t live in red states, we don’t live in blue states etc…”) And there are always downticket races to consider.
It’s not like he can’t afford it.
If I had to boil down the election this year, it’s all about:
Rock-Scissors-Paper
He is hoping that he can convince people that McCain is toast and dissuade Repubs from voting at all.
Funny how Pres Bush is not out rallying the troops.
He has had a info-channel running for a few weeks now on Dish Network…or DirectTV or whatever I’ve got.
The channel is called “OBAMA” or maybe “BAMA”. I watched it for like a minute and a half one day. The part I watched was showing some old photograghs of him with his grandmother and his voice was talking about how he’s so great because of her, blah blah. Exactly what you would expect.
I’ve already voted for Ron Paul, as has my wife, with no expectation of him winning.
In fact I didn’t vote for a single incumbent, especially my congress critter Anna Eshoo (who voted for the bailout).
The only changes your going to see from Obama are more EEOC programs and higher taxes. Does anybody remember when he said “Nuke Pakistan” some time ago?
F him and McCain.
Mike
No mention of the “typical white person” grandmother?
I think this was done to screw with the McCain camp. Force them to spend money they don’t have to counter it.
The other thing is no matter how many watch it, it will dominate the news cycle for at least a couple of days in the last week.
It’s a good strategy.
I believe he’s better off not over-exposing himself. Americans have short attention spans. I would rather have 60 30 second spots than 1 30 minute spot.
Americans claim not to know him, which is what I read prompted this 30 minute business.
What he doesn’t realize is that many Americans in the (ahem) less educated parts of the country don’t want to know him, and prefer the Fox News version of his life and beliefs.
in the (ahem) less educated parts of the country
You mean like Baltimore?
NoSingle one.
I was in California yesterday and a person whom I was visiting did not know that he was bi-racial?
There is your less educated state for you.
Also, had to change the channel, however being an opened minded person, I listend to a talk radio program out of Berkly, CA. They were suggesting that OB should take money from the well to do and redistribute to the poor? Thats interesting that it is similar to some of the mis-statments by Obama.
I don’t see what is so bad about Obama letting people know why they should vote for him. Besides, he needs 30 minutes to chronicle all the Bush f@ckups he has to fix.
I wish people would give him a chance. He’s smart. Seems like a decent guy to me. Married once. Gave back to the community. Made it against all odds. Got into drugs like many did, and found a way out. Then went to college, and finally made it to Harvard, becoming the first black president of the Harvard Law Review. He was selected based on an essay he wrote, and on his grades. No daddy’s boy here. This guy is one in a million.
So what is not to like about Barack Obama? Is it just that he’s black? Or maybe he’s a socialist. lol. Like we haven’t seen ENOUGH socialism for the rich the last 8 years?
Barack Obama is a lot closer to you and I than McCain or Bush ever were. Give the guy a chance. I guarantee you he will be no worse than Bush has been. Here we have history in the making. The first black president. Are you going to look back 30 years from now and say you rejoiced in this event? Or are you going to your grave knowing you were one of the bitter people. One of those that attacked him?
What side of history do you want to be on?
Barack Obama had no chance of being president. The only way he got this far was because of how badly Republicans ran the country. If you guys want to know who to be pissed at…look in the mirror.
But the nation will be better because of Barack Obama, so thank you!
Thank you for this. I feel the same way.
+1
I gave GWB the same chance in 2000 (although I didn’t vote for him). He lost me at Iraq.
Actually, I take that back. He lost me when he was blasting McCain on Larry King.
But then I thought, “50 million people can’t be wrong, can they?”
I was scared to death what Bush would do to the country before the election in 2000, as I did do my homework on him. But I too gave him a fresh start after 9/11. He lost me on Iraq, and was dead to me after Katrina. The implosion of the economy, and Wall Street, was just icing on the cake.
Bush gave me many reasons to despise him. He earned it. Barack deserves the same benefit of the doubt.
The fact that the geniuses who said the world would end if we didn’t vote for GWB in ‘00 and ‘04 are now saying the same thing about McCain today is what lost me to the Republican Party, potentially forever. I can’t stomach becoming a card-carrying Dem, so it looks like Independent-land for me.
Well guess what, the world did end, and it was because we keep electing anti-American neocons who care more about ideology and placating the rabid right than keeping this country afloat. Hey, the End of Days is approaching and Jebus is coming so what does it matter anyway, right?
I’m still voting Obama though. He’s a better choice than any except Ron Paul, IMO.
The “fresh start after 9/11″ is what everybody gave him. I, however, did not buy it then and I don’t buy it now.
Thanks Elanor.
Most of the negative comments I’ve read about Barack Obama on this blog have been of a racist nature. He’s quite clearly an excellent Presidential candidate and, like it or not, he’s the guy.
RE: Most of the negative comments I’ve read about Barack Obama on this blog have been of a racist nature.
BS…eom.
Yeah, I’m going to blow the BS whistle on that one. My chief problem with the guy is that he’s proposing an enormous nationalized health care spending bill at a time where the national debt has already reached deplorably high levels. Where’s the money for this going to come from, Mr. Obama? We already don’t have room in the budget over the next 50 or so years to pay our existing obligations for Social Security and Medicare…so why should we add on more?
This ever-increasing government spending amounts to financial child abuse, as far as I’m concerned.
And then there’s the fact that to me he seems insincere and contrived. His alleged “great oratorical skills” only seem to show themselves when he’s well-prepared…but when he tries to give an impromptu speech he comes off as a somewhat sloppy, flat, and occasionally offensive speaker. His “change and hope” mantra has gotten as old as the McCain/Palin “we’re such mavericks” nonsense.
Of course, raise these points to an Obama supporter and you’ll be treated as if you’ve just questioned the existence of God - except the argument will be even angrier and will have far less intellectual merit.
Gotta agree here. Criticism of Barack here sounded more like Rush Limbaugh talking points on the economy. It was IMO junk, but not racist.
I’ve been reading this blog since it was a baby, so I already know there are a lot of sexist and racist people posting here. Pismoclam, for instance (who has been divorced 2x and brags about ripping off the 2nd young girl with a prenup) has referred to Obama as “Watermelon Man” and something with a Hussein in it. Tell me that’s not racist. If you guys aren’t seeing it, then you must be letting it slide.
It is unfortunate that you are so quick to say that a few racist, or sexist on a blog constitutes alot. There are a couple, maybe a few, but certainly not alot.
As for the election,
The white people that would only vote McCain because he is white should cancel out the black people that would only vote Obama because he is black. Statisically speaking these idiots should cancel each other out.
Effect of racism on elections should be moot, but the back and forth between the followers of both may be long lasting.
Yeah, lots of racists in this country Big V. The Dems lost the south for 40 years by pushing rights for blacks. I think it all boils down to “the black man gonna steal our white women”.
Very sad. But again, if they actually ran the country like they should have, Republicans probably wouldn’t be in this situation.
Again, thank you Republicans! You really did help make history.
Absolutely.
Though I’d prefer a third-party candidate because I’m suspicious of anyone who gets such huge amounts of campaign funding from financial institutions (esp during a “financial crisis”).
That being said, I would be very happy to see Obama win. With the exception of bailouts for FBs, he’s right on the money regarding what’s wrong with our country and how to fix it, IMHO.
“He’s quite clearly an excellent Presidential candidate and, like it or not, he’s the guy”
This clown should not be elected dog catcher. What do we know about this guy? Where did he come from and who paid for his fast track to the top of the party? Do you really think Marxist change is better than no change? Has bush derangement syndrome cooked your brain that much? Ron Paul I could see bringing real change, but this guy (BHO), no thanks.
Another member of the “Deliverance” wing of the Republican party speaks out.
Don’t worry Jethrow, he won’t take your guns or your women!
It looks foolish, that running your mouth without doing your homework thing…
At least I know how to take care of my own affairs. The rest of you on the religious left need your nanny messiah to take care of you. That would be fine if he were just going to take care of you and stay out of my life. How do I opt out? I have no choice but to put up with pathetic losers like yourselves and the corrupt leaders you seem to want ruling your lives. I mean that in the nicest possible way of course.
I first read of Barack Obama in the New Yorker about 5 or 6 years ago, and at the time I thought he was a dream come true, and fantasized about him becoming our leader, and here we are on the verge…
Via ovum cranium difficilis est
+ 1
bananarepublic
Are you fricking serious with this crap you just wrote. I was waiting for the music to play while reading it.
Most of what you wrote strickly speaks to vote for him because he is black and be part of history.
McCain sucks, Obama sucks, we are screwed on this one just like the last one. Rock paper scissors is the only way to vote for these bought and “PAID” for individuals, but pleeeeeaaaaze, stop with the bleeding heart crap, McCain wasn’t born with a silver spoon up his azz either.
You still don’t get it. You didn’t get it the last 8 years. I suspect you will never get it.
They’ll never get it, banana.
At least he demonstrates that not all the Republican votes in 2000 and 2004 weren’t imaginary.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/business/29credit.html?ref=business
“After years of flooding Americans with credit card offers and sky-high credit lines, lenders are sharply curtailing both, just as an eroding economy squeezes consumers. The pullback is affecting even creditworthy consumers and threatens an already beleaguered banking industry with another wave of heavy losses after an era in which it reaped near record gains from the business of easy credit that it helped create.”
“Lenders wrote off an estimated $21 billion in bad credit card loans in the first half of 2008 as more borrowers defaulted on their payments. With companies laying off tens of thousands of workers, the industry stands to lose at least another $55 billion over the next year and a half, analysts say. Currently, the total losses amount to 5.5 percent of credit card debt outstanding, and could surpass the 7.9 percent level reached after the technology bubble burst in 2001.”
Poof.
Combo, I’ve still yet to see an explanation of how someone defaulting on debt results in dollars disappearing. As far as I can tell, the dollars are created when they are loaned out (assuming fractional-reserve banking). The debtor spends them, then defaults.
The borrowed dollars still exist in the system.
What is it that I am missing that’s the foundation of your outlook? I certainly get that people defaulting indicates that they don’t have cash in hand, but I don’t see how this plays into some kind of “deflation” scenario?
Please enlighten me, as if I’m missing something I’d like to understand.
The $$$s disappear from the bank’s balance sheet.
The banks go “naked short” on the dollar when they lend out via fractional reserve lending and cover their position when you repay your loan. If you default, the bank still has to “cover” their position. When they cover their position money is destroyed the same way it is created (an accounting entry).
The debt written down by the banks depletes the bank’s balance sheet. This balance sheet depletion counts against the bank’s reserves, thus the balance sheet has to be replenished.
This means that whenever a bank receives a mortgage payment, a credit card payment, a car payment - whatever- it keeps the money (after subtracting for expenses) instead of passing it on to be recirculated. This action subtracts money from the economy.
I apologize for being dense..something is not clicking for me this morning.
What you say makes sense if you assume that the bank must retain/not re-loan funds coming from other sources - ie your example regarding someone elses mtg payment. However, what if instead the bank borrows from the FED to get the cash. In that case, no money is being taken out of circulation to make up for the defaulted debt, no?
As you say that the “balance sheet depletion counts against the bank’s reserves”…is this in 1:1, or is the reserve ratio in play here? (ie are you saying that what’s on the balance sheet counts towards the bank’s reserves? If that’s the case, wouldn’t only a fraction of that which was defaulted on essentially be “destroyed”?)
I’m consuming copious amounts of coffee as I type, so hopefully this will click sometime soon this morning
And then the fed and the treasury issue more funny money bonds and t-bills to recapitalize banks, sell ‘em to the Chinese and Japanese and thereby pump more fiatscos into the great worldwide ponzi scheme. Poof indeed.
I hope we don’t have to hit up Haiti to buy our t-bonds if the Asiatics tire of them…
Heck, can’t we just invent a country along with it’s requisite funny cotton and have it buy them? It’s the Enron way baby!
There is no Freedonia lunch.
I tried to watch that movie. Painful. I wish Harpo Marx was still alive so I could punch him in the face.
Lending doesn’t create money.. it’s the borrower’s “paying back” that creates it.
You borrow $100 from a bank and spend it at the grocery store. So, $100 is in circulation.
You then earn money from your job, and repay the bank it’s $100. Now, $200 exists (the $100 spent and the $100 repaid).
Work (and repayment) puts $100 in new money into circulation.
——–
Now, even if a borrower does not repay a loan, new assets were (most likely) created by spending the loaned money.
The spent money contributed to the expansion of a business and/or made someone a profit and/or paid someone wages.. It probably turned $xxx in raw materials into finished goods at a greater dollar value; i.e. build a dog house worth $200 from $100 in raw materials/labor, etc.
Inflation/deflation is an *imbalance* between all existing assets and the total dollar supply. Assets are the neglected factor in discussions about inflation/deflation.
Deflation can occur by creating new assets faster than new dollars are created. This is what happened. People borrowed, created a thriving , growing economy with lots of new assets, and then did not repay the loans.. Essentially, the money supply did not increase while total assets did increase.
People are not paying back their loans because they never did produce anything with all that borrowed money. That’s where it all unwinds. The expected growth in real goods did not concur with the temporary growth in money supply.
joey - I’m surprised, but sorry you you’ve got it wrong. The money is indeed created when it is leant.
When the $100 is paid back to the bank, is then gone. You’re neglecting the fact that the person’s employer had to get the $100 from *somewhere*. What if the person’s employer happened to be the grocery store? There you have a perfect circle that illustrates the concept. The bank creates $100 to lend. The person spends it at the grocery store. Now $100 exists. The grocery store then pays the person $100 in his paycheck. It still exists. Then the person pays back the loan - whammo it’s gone.
That’s why all loan paybacks do indeed result in destroyed money - however it was money that was created back when the loan was made. The net effect is that no money is created or destroyed*
However writedowns due to defaulted debt do not result in this destroyed money. If the person doesn’t make any salary, and declares they can’t pay back the loan, then the bank writes down the $100. However that $100 is still out there. So the $100 was created, but never destroyed. That my friends, is inflation. It was *created* at the time of the loan, but didn’t actually manifest itself until the writedown. Thus IMO that’s why all these writedowns by the banks in the end are not deflationary, but rather inflationary, because they replace loan paybacks that would otherwise cause a net effect of money neither being created nor destroyed.
*This assumes a constant level of loaned money. Since over the long term we’ve had ever-increasing amounts of loaned money - voila we have inflation, fueled by loans.
It sounds like we are suddenly facing a shortage of both whales (Megabank lenders) and plankton (marginally qualified borrowers).
“Suddenly?” We ran out of plankton when the spring selling season first flopped in 2006. Medium-sized fish — the FB’s — didn’t get any plankton, but they lived for two years off the fat of their I/O grace periods and Mastercard tricks. They are now dying from starvation. The shark banks gave out their fat reserves as bonuses, and with no medium fish, they are starving much faster.
And they are just now finding out that the reef they live on is composed of thin coral veneer over cardboard boxes and the whole thing is crumbling as the papier-mache gets soggy. And…the whole ocean floor is in foreclosure.
oxide,
Very well said. It helps explain why just up until about 6-12 months ago everyone was still talking like they were swinging 13″? Seriously, you’d go to parties or whatever and you’re exhausted from the burden of all the knowledge we’ve collectively amassed and you were the only guy *not partying like it’s 1999?
Why so glum? Coconut-flavered rum?
swinging 13″<– oh my.
And here, *I* was the one planning celebrate at the parties soon. While all the blokes around me were glum and bankrupt, I could swing my *cough* 34C and snap up something nice for a nice price.
But thanks to Paulson & Co., now I have to pad the blokes’ pants to make them feel better.
(Yikes. I hope my mother isn’t reading this!!)
Maybe that’s about to change. I heard on the news this morning that a local bank received 214 million (I think it was) from the Fed and the CEO assured me that he was going to loan it to people. He also told me he was going to use it to buy weaker banks. He was going to do one other thing, but I forget what it was. I think he’s pretty excited to have money like that fall into his lap.
Manna from heaven lent loosely is not going to save us, sorry.
It won’t save me, because I don’t believe in manna from heaven. Plus I don’t recall saying anything about it saving us. So you’re right, it won’t save “us”. It might save you though, because I think the CEO was saying you banked with them.
In the lad’s defense, I think he’s right.
Dude, you are Lad. EmperorNorton_II and you are the same person. You might fool others, but not me, and that’s reason why you’re always trying to bust on me. You and I know it’s true.
My favorite is how whenever Lad goes on one of his trips to the Rockies or wherever to get in touch with nature, the ol’ Emperor comes on to post. Magically when lad comes back, the Emperor disappears. You’re a total fraud. I doubt you have any gold over”seize”, too.
Anybody who wants to take some time and search for Emperor and Lad posts and compare them, they can draw the same conclusion.
You are very quick on the uptake, my cover is blown.
And to think that nobody else had figured out what I didn’t bother to hide all that much, and it took you a year to figure it out?
You are very wrong about everything else you think you know about me, though.
I’ve known about it for a long time, it’s just when you use your alter ego to support your main identity that it goes beyond the pale.
I know you’re a fraud. These few posts are enough to prove that.
I know you’re a religious fanatic about your Gawd, I mean Gold. I know that when anybody ever tries to pin you down and get actual information from you, you either don’t answer, or you write something caustic and avoid the issue. I know that you rarely have any original thoughts, being satisfied with using what others have said. I know that when you accidentally spill out a verifiable prediction, they’ve been wrong (how did that one massacre go, by the way?). I know you think guns are for you, but not other people. I know that you think you are Gawd’s gift to financial genius.
Lastly, I know that you are wrong when you say “You are very wrong about everything else you think you know about me, though.”
Everyone has known that Aladinsane is Emporor Norton II for a long time. He’s also Troy. I think he might also sometimes post as gal, but I’m not sure.
Look, alad is just joking around with the multiple identities thing, and he lives near/in Yosemite. He doesn’t “go to the Rockies”. I usually don’t stand up for him (just because he never stands up for me), but I want to right now because the facts are wrong.
Pretty sure in the past I’ve seen instances where Ben has told people not to use multiple identities because it makes him have to work harder on the spam filter.
It’s me, myself and I here…
I see the blog police have been notified of possible false identities being used on an anonymous forum, in complete anonymity anonymously enough.
Okay, I’ve been here basically since the beginning of the blog…and didn’t know alad and the emporer were one and the same.
If “everyone” knew, I feel really foolish.
If those banks received bail out money because they were “too big to fail”, why are they getting bigger buying weaker banks?
The CEO was saying on the radio that they were getting money because they had a solid balance sheet and were strong! He implied the fed was giving money to strong banks to help protect them. What’s he gonna say, though?
and other banks get money from the FED because they have a terrible balance sheet and are on the brink of going poof! Maybe the small strong banks need to get extra money so the nearly-bankrupt big sharks cannot buy them up by the dozen? all BS IMHO …
“Capital One, another big issuer, for example, has aggressively shut down inactive accounts and reduced customer credit lines by 4.5 percent in the second quarter from the previous period, according to regulatory filings.”
I wonder how these reductions in credit lines will impact the customer’s FICO scores.
Not that anyone is buying anything of late, but since part of the FICO is the debt/credit ratio any changes there can translate into higher rates, i.e. an excuse to charge those struggling customers even more.
As a next step, perhaps Cap One could stop sending applications out to people who don’t want them!
Does this mean the bull market on paper shredders is over?
“What’s in your shredder!”
They probably could save a lot of money on wasted marketing. Strangley enough, I called them up to get a credit card knowing what I wanted. The rep seemed confused.
4.5% is NOT a lot. If a measly 4.5% is the difference between an alt-a and subprime FICO, or even solvency and bankruptcy, you were in too much trouble to begin with, especially if you are an end consumer.
Small businesses may work differently.
European bond flood to test investor appetite
Published: October 28 2008 19:10 | Last updated: October 28 2008 19:10
The European bond markets are about to get a little crowded. With governments and banks expected to swamp the markets with more than €2,600bn ($3,255bn) in new debt next year, competition among issuers to attract investors will never be greater.
This wall of issuance, estimated to comprise up to €1,000bn in government debt and up to €1,600bn in government-backed bank paper, comes just as the markets are deteriorating, making it harder to raise money….”
FT
$1.2 T this Q in the US $900B next Q in the US and $750B next Q in Europe. Got bonds? Want any?
but bonds have what people crave.
security.
backed by faith.
securitized by your fellow man.
a claim on money and property.
guaranteed.
more brawndo please. the river of denial is spilling over the banks and drowning the slaves.
Are you Vozzie? What happened? Do you now have a big CLUE?
Where did my Pale Ale buddy go? Drinking the Oregon juice? Are you going to buy another house? Move to Texas you Commie Menominee wanna be? LOL
Who’s from Menominee? I better start typing slower. They don’t drink beer in Menominee. They drink stout.
Where’s housing wizard?
here lies less more.
4 slugs from a 44.
no less. no vozzie, no more.
clue,
I will miss vozzie. Does this mean your postings will be easier to understand? Will your clues be eaiser to solve?
Is there such a thing as a fake nom de plume?
or, as in your case, o Protector of Mexico, “nombre de pluma.”
I only reign on Wednesdays.
clue:
“but bonds have what people crave.”
security.
backed by faith.
securitized by your fellow man.
a claim on money and property.
guaranteed.
================================================
How come only the claim part is true, and how come I feel like i’m Not Sure in a country full of imbeciles?
none of its true, except the brawndo part.
“More Brawndo please.”
Idiocracy is a rare movie — makes you laugh while scaring the hell out of you.
The greatest mistake people make when watching that wonderful movie is assuming it is merely a comedy, when it is actually a documentary filmed years before its time.
maya rudolph is HOT!
sure, I see announcements of huge government bondsales in the news almost every day now; I’m pretty sure this happens all over Europe. Many of those are 3-6 month paper to get the big banking sharks through the crisis (at least that is what governments are hoping). They have good timing, because people are accepting bonds with almost zero return (although that may get a bit more difficult after the recent idiotic stockmarket rally …).
And the real question is:
Who is going to insure those loans?
Chicago the murder capital of the US. Is Chi Town gonna go the way of Detroit?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3363675.stm
Olympics 2016!
BAWWWWHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
For cryin’ out loud, that’s an article from 2004.
But yes, we do tend to kill each other more often here. Sad, as it’s mostly in the poor west side and south side neighborhoods and related to gangs. If you’re white and/or don’t live in those hoods, your chances are real slim that you’re going to be murdered.
unless you’re married to a bolingbrook police officer.
I could care less who wins, but it would be nice to see him get upset in election. He and his peeps have been dancing in the streets about how this one is already won. Always have enjoyed a come from behind victory.
I hear ya. I’m voting for a third party candidate myself, but it just seems like O’Bama is just another pre-determined candidate.
IMO, the real winner in this election will be the one who gets the second largest number of votes. Governing in an environment with lower tax receipts, a MUCH higher national debt, and a demand for ever more money and services by clueless constituents will not be fun.
It’s difficult to want to vote for someone that’s willing to run for the office.
“No man who ever held the office of president would congratulate a friend on obtaining it.”
- John Adams
Hmmm, ya know, maybe there’s something to my tin foil idea that McCain and the GOP seem to be deliberately throwing the election, but sowing seeds for what they feel may be the outcome of an O’Bama administration.
that would be the sensible thing to do. so they probably are not doing it.
My original tin foil hat reason for picking Palin was that if McCain won, he’d get her out of his buddies’ hair in Alaska and things would go back to “normal,” whatever that is.
Palmetto,
You give too much credit to the idiots/religious zealots that are what the GOP has become.
Never explain an action with a plan when incompetence will cover the bill.
Bill In Carolina -
I agree. I have no idea why you’d want the job in the next 4 years (or next decade, actually).
Nah… Disagree completely… As dumb as the average American homebuyer looks with this bubble and financial fiasco, I think the voters and polls have this one correct.. the scary part to me is it’s not a 20-30+ point lead… that shows you how resistant to change most Americans really are even if it means bankrupting the country by keeping the current party is power..
You say this despite the fact that Obama wants to start some nationalized health care plan that’s only going to saddle the US government with even more debt in the long run?
Your argument makes zero sense. Our health care expenses are exploding without it. This is causing those of us that do pay to shoulder the burden of those of that don’t. The additional expense is going to the middle men, who provide zero value to the system. They have not kept costs down. It has been the opposition.
I also take issue with any Republican that tries to tell me about fiscal responsibility. Have you people no shame?
Look at the country!
Damn, more typos in that last post than you can shake a stick at!
The money that we currently use for private insurance would instead go to some socialized form of payment. I don’t think it’s a net increase in spending, although those of us who currently enjoy superior benefits may lose out.
Hard to agree with your phrasing. Obama fought tooth and nail for 18 months to wrest the nomination away from a very obviously “pre-determined” Hillary Clinton.
if (when) Obama wins, thank God this nation will never have to endure hillary at the helm.
“I could care less who wins”
BS.
He didn’t say, “I couldn’t care less who wins”. Obviously, he cares who wins.
I’ll admit even I don’t totally not care. I slightly prefer Obama. Mainly b/c I’d like to see a black guy be president and I think between the two he’s the best chance we have of being less war-like (realistically it probably won’t matter…but a guy can hope I guess).
Mostly I don’t care though. Nothing significant will change.
After 8 years of the worse President in history and a Republican run Government for 6 leading to the biggest economic crisis in 70 years and maybe the biggest foreign policy blunder in our history, you can ,with a straight face, say that it won’t matter who wins?
Let’s look at what might have happened if
Financial Institutions and Lenders were Regulated.
We did not invade Iraq.
Fema wasn’t put into the hands of a horse trainer.
We didn’t make torture a policy of our country.
We didn’t lower the taxes of the top 5% in a time of deficits and war.
We didn’t make every part of the Executive branch a part of the political wing.
No difference? Hardly.
This “economic crisis” wasn’t built in 6 or 8 years. Of course, you’re so hell-bent focused on your blue team you can’t or won’t see it.
Financial institutions only need regulation b/c of the govt created monetary frankenstein. And to the extent they might need regulation, they won’t get it from anyone. Regulation is needed on the way up, not the way down. Dems won’t change that. More of the same.
Republicans have certainly gotten us mired in this crappy war. Dems were largely responsible for the last mucky one. The great Dem hero himself JFK only escalated the Veitnam conflict followed faithfully by LBJ, funny how selective memory works. Yeah, the Dems are real doves. Sounds like more of the same to me.
NOLA got drowned because of being a bowl next to an ocean. It’s not rocket science, the most primitive of civilizations built housing above sea level. This is just another example of you being so anti-rep that you can’t see clearly. Bush doesn’t make hurricanes wet and stupid people stupid, as much as you would like to blame those on him too.
Dems have a long tradition of deficit spending as well. We didn’t get a national debt in just 6 or 8 years. Geez, wake up. Even Clinton was raiding SS while claiming a budget surplus. It was only a surplus by govt account standards, which if any publicly traded corp used the CEO would be in jail, and I’m not exagerating. But naturally you blue-blood dems just lap it up when Clinton says “we have a surplus”, never mind the bothersome facts. So yeah, more of the same here too. Deficit spending and plenty of entitlements for you at the expense of your (or someone elses) children or grandchildren.
Agreed. What we need at this point is serious fiscal conservatism - something neither major candidate seems to agree with.
I’m finally starting to understand why so many people don’t vote (aside from factors like stupidity, of course). When you feel like neither major party gives a damn about you, it’s kind of hard to get up the urge to go out and vote for one of their own.
Oh you will see change. You will have a liberal congress with a very liberal president. Lot of pent up liberal agendas to be pushed hard. We are about to go hard left.
Correction: We’re about to go mainstream…. and it’s about time.
Who will do what? Increase entitlements and national debt? Paid for by the people who can’t afford to pay for it, no doubt. Yeah, that’s a huge deviation from our current trajectory.
You know, I will happily pay more taxes to see the budget deficit reduced over the long term. I will happily pay more for American made products.
My standard of living has much more to do with the relationships I have with other people than how many toys I can buy.
Does that make me a liberal?
You know, I will happily pay more taxes to see the budget deficit reduced over the long term.
Well, you’ll be paying more taxes. You can expect the national debt to continue to increase to the point of either default or severe inflation.
1 out of 2 ain’t bad I guess.
Don’t count on him being less of a war monger than Bush. Obama will have to establish himself as not being a pantywaist.
Most of the posters on this board seem intelligent, but I just don’t understand how some of you can argue that there is ANY significant difference between the D’s and the R’s. Look at who Obama’s and McCain’s top advisers are and what organizations they belong to.
Neither on of these puppets will do anything to fix the problem that has caused so many of us to gather here…Unsound monetary policy. Ignoring this shows how partisan you really are.
Bluprint, you would vote for someone just because of their skin color? My goodness man, this is not a computer game where you make decisions just to see what happens, why not vote for someone who will work to make a secure future for your children by defending the freedoms granted to us in The Constitution?
Bluprint, you would vote for someone just because of their skin color? My goodness man, this is not a computer game where you make decisions just to see what happens,
Life is a game. And I’m curious to see what happens. It’s not like I’m actually making the decision, I was just stating my preference.
Anyway, if I had any say in it, I would still make it a black guy for prez. I think we could use the culture and maybe it would generate some benefits with regard to foreign relations. But I would have chosen George Clinton. Put some P in the presidency.
“I’m so groovy I dig me.”
Bootsy Collins doing slap on a P-Bass… smokin..
“P” is New Zealand slang for Meth. It’s short for pseudomethamphetamine…
I mistook the P for George Clintons phunk. I’m not into the drug culture.
This ain’t New Zealand, this is the internet.
And the P stand for Funksidency
I’m gonna go get my groove on now. later ya’ll.
Oh, and I’ll be paying special attention to the space bass, just for you ex.
“I’ll admit even I don’t totally not care.”
Can I get a translation? Anyone?
The fact that he’s the world’s candidate is reason number one why he should lose.
You are correct. We definitely should not listen to the rest of the world. The mavericks in office now have done a great job by not listening to anybody else’s opinion. We should keep it up. The U.S. is the Ultimate Supreme Leader of the Universe and we should never forget that. All other nations can blank themselves. We don’t need anybody else.
McCain and Palin uber alles.
How I hate partisanship.
Actually, Blano’s right. Seriously.
I agree that we need to develop friendships with friendly countries which the current administration with it’s “My way or the highway” attitude has no idea how to do.
On the other hand, you can’t run a country or a life by worrying about other people’s opinions of your actions. (Hint: the French will always hate us for not being Louisiana or Quebec.)
Vermontergal,
So, how do you explain the Republican’s obsession with Israel? Show me where the Constitution says that it is the responsibility of the President to serve as Commander in Chief of the people of Israel.
Heh.
I can’t explain anything - I barely understand my own actions at times, let alone an odd ongoing issue from the ruins of WWII Europe.
All I really know is that acting in your own self interest, without worrying about currying the favor of people who don’t live your life and probably don’t even like you is not arrogant. It doesn’t mean you don’t “need” anyone. It’s just respectful of the idea that you know what’s in your own best interest.
you can’t run a country or a life by worrying about other people’s opinions of your actions
Yep, as long as those “other people” are willing to do your slave labor for you, pump your oil for you, and grow your grapes and oranges for you in January, while you pocket the profits, no reason to worry how they feel, right?
What vermontergal is saying is right. I often feel that we’ve brought on more enmity against us abroad by our indiscriminate meddling in foreign affairs, thus bringing on accusations of American “cultural imperialism” and such. We would make far more friends abroad simply by leaving people alone and not constantly trying to convert foreign countries to the American democratic “cause”.
Well, we could listen to our “Father” and obey his wishes.
-
Islamic fundamentalist, GOP fundamentalist, same coin, 2 sides.
My other post hasn’t shown up yet. If it does, It’s not aimed at you specifically, CB.
The rest of the world wants to drag us down to their level, period. Despite our problems, we can and should do better than the rest.
Lyndon Johnson once said “we are the number one nation, and we’re gonna stay the number one nation.” That should be our attitude, not “We Are the World.”
Vermontergal is right about at least making the effort to forge relationships. However, this is America. When push comes to shove, we don’t have to ask permission from anybody.
“The rest of the world wants to drag us down to their level, period. Despite our problems, we can and should do better than the rest.”
=================================================
Around 85% of Americans don’t own passports, which means they’ve never been anywhere, and they tend to make blanket statements about the rest of the world that may bear some relevance in a backwater 3rd world country, but not amongst our peers in the 1st world.
It’s time to get out and see the world and ruin some long-wrong stereotypes, people…
WTF is it with the airy fairy metophoric yammering that amounts to nothing. For instance, “The world wants to drag us down to their level” means what? Is it kind of like “God bless America”? Why would zealots be so shortsighted not to say God Bless The World? Because the the rest of the world his horrible and we’re rah rah #1 red white and blue? Get a grip!!!!!!
“For instance, “The world wants to drag us down to their level” means what?”
I was in France 3 weeks ago. If I were to get dragged down to that level I would be pretty happy. It seemed pretty good to me.
This idea of saying, “you’re not the boss of me” and then pouting is what 8-year olds do, not great nations. It is silly. I would be more depressed right now if the rest of the world wasn’t criticizing us. There is so much that needs to be criticized.
“Around 85% of Americans don’t own passports, which means they’ve never been anywhere”
I don’t have a passport. I’ve been to France, Spain, Italy, Austria, Mexico, Canada, Puerto Rico, Morocco, Israel, The United Arab Emirates, Turkey, both Germanies, Switzerland, and Australia.
Around 85% of Americans don’t own passports, which means they’ve never been anywhere, and they tend to make blanket statements about the rest of the world that may bear some relevance in a backwater 3rd world country, but not amongst our peers in the 1st world.
I have a passport and I’ve only been to Canada.
People are the same everywhere. Europe has stupid people and stupid policies, just like here. I betcha NYCityBoy didn’t visit the parts of France where Islamics from her ex-colonies hang out in 100% concrete housing and live in a world of half citizenship and no jobs. (That’s where the riots started…)
The act of traveling doesn’t make anyone smarter or more cultured or “better”, especially if you are only there to see touristy stuff. I think you can learn just as much about how the world works by living and working with inhabitants of a small town (or neighborhood) than seeing the icons and old churches of someone else’s culture.
Which comes back to why I agree with with the idea that we have right to decide policies in our own best interest without regard to the opinions of people not living our lives or paying the bills. The attitude that Europeans are better or smarter than us simply because they are European is just as arrogant and narrow minded as assuming we’re always right because we’re Americans.
yBoy didn’t visit the parts of France where Islamics from her ex-colonies hang out
Well if you want people to think you’re well-informed you should know that “Islamic” does not refer to people, but institutions or cultures. A person can be a Muslim, and a Muslim may or may not be an Islamist. For example, Saddam Hussein was not an Islamist (he was a secularist), but Bin Laden is.
Most of the people you’re talking about are in fact only nominally Muslim, and are about as religious as anyone else in France (i.e. not very).
I’ve had the pleasure of having left behind my remains in many a different type of crapper* in this big world of ours, and in the end my accomplishment was the same as it would be here @ home, just different ways of coming to the conclusion.
Vive la difference…
* stand-up crappers take the most getting used to…
“Which comes back to why I agree with with the idea that we have right to decide policies in our own best interest without regard to the opinions of people not living our lives or paying the bills.”
When have we NOT conducted business that way and what makes you think we’ll deviate from that established history?
Simple test. Have you ever been to another country? Mexico doesn’t count. Because if you haven’t, you really have no place making comments about what other countries do or don’t think.
And yes, I have been outside the USA. Many times. I went to Japan in the mid 80’s when it was still cool! I’ve been to just about every country in Europe, and I have been to Turkey.
And yes, I got drunk in Mexico!
Bottom line. The views of those of us that have actually been somewhere holds more water than those that haven’t been anywhere. And spouting Rush Limbaugh propaganda doesn’t help your cause!
No, your opinions don’t count more just because you’ve had the luxury of travel. You went on vacation, BFD. Call me back when you’ve earned your PhD in cultural anthropology, then I’ll lend you more respect.
You have got to be kidding me…
You located your dumb american Matt. For the life of me I cannot understand why a 30k/yr wage slave would vote against his own economic interests.
I’m convinced it’s because Democrats insist on using elistist tongue-twisters like “vote against his own best economic interest.” If they adopted some shaper phrasing like “the man is gonna trick you out of your money” or “vote yourself into the poorhouse,” it might make more impact.
Look at McCain’s new anti-”spread the wealth” stump speech. Never mind that the 30K/yr wage earners don’t have any wealth to spread, and that they are going to get the wealth spread to them. Doesn’t matter. McCain is using straighter talk, and it’s catching on.
Crooked is straighter? Double talk? Campaign First?
Or, it could be that not everyone who’s monetarily poor wants a handout. It’s even slightly possible that they want a better life and are willing to work for it. And, maybe, they don’t want themselves or their kids to have to “share their wealth” once they achieve that.
They used to call that the American Dream.
The American Dream is to get yours and sc%&w everybody else?
Darn, and I thought it was to buy a McMansion!
“The reason they call it the American Dream is because you gotta be asleep to believe it.” — George Carlin
Interfering with free trade, whether it’s taxes, tariffs, patents, is only going to make society net poorer.
Please, like the government bureaucracy middlemen, aren’t going to take huge pay off cuts in their redistribution schemes.
All those European countries and their social programs are on the fast track to default bankruptcy too.
Taxes should be capped at 10% maximum, for all levels of government, for everybody.
Of course there’s a whole bunch of intolerant bigoted thieves who think it’s their right to vote their neighbor’s property away. And this is the primary reason for societal decline. Civilization only exists to the extent VOLUNTARY cooperation exists. And that means free trade without interference.
People are just PLUM DUMB. After a century of economic efficiency and technological innovation, houses, education, health care, cars should all be cheaper than ever. Yet the masses are oblivious to how the Federal Reserve banksters counterfeited all that wealth away.
It’s even slightly possible that they want a better life and are willing to work for it. And, maybe, they don’t want themselves or their kids to have to “share their wealth” once they achieve that.
This is no longer 1962 when you could land a 30-year job at Generous Motors direct out of (free) high school. Nowadays you need college, and connections. You don’t get those by yourself. If you have brains but your parents have no money, or if you live in a bad school district, you may never have the opportunity. You could work and work and will never make it.
And please understand that “wealth” is $250K a year. That is a LOT of income. Even Obama’s Senate salary is less than that. (His $4M fortune is a one-time lump sum from his two books, not his income. ) Even Sarah Palin would get a tax cut.
And it’s not like Obama is taking EVERYTHING over $250K. Take the “Joe the Plumber” example. He purported to make $270K a year. His tax hike? Less than $1000 a year (I think). Hardly crippling.
The socialists who enacted the Income Tax swore it would never be used to tax anyone except the richest 1%. Every year, Congress has to exempt the super rich tax cheats (those making $50K a year) from the Alternative Minimum Tax. The Federal Reserve has artificially inflated far too many into far too burdensome taxation which is killing productivity and freedom.
Do you have any clue how much wealth the Federal Reserve has stolen away through its hidden taxation counterfeiting inflation since it was enacted?
Keep on inflating house prices and kick grannies out of their homes when they can’t pay the taxes on their fixed incomes. These are “compassionate” leftists. So when inflation makes everything 20 times more expensive, leftists will claim those $50K a year workers now nominally being paid $250K are “rich”, and getting more than their “fair share”.
They don’t even feel the slightest bit guilty taking away peoples’ property, and just invent phony justifications as they go along.
Government is already taking too much from EVERYBODY at all levels. But these people are STUPID too. Let’s subsidize every college student an extra $10K a year so that colleges can just raise their tuition prices an extra $10K per student per year. Same exact thing with Health Care.
Oxide you are making way too much sense!
I have to agree with oxide. I m not rich but I dont want any spread laid on me. I didnt want the stimulus; I didnt need it. Ill make my own money. I dont need it to be taken away from anyone. Muhammad’s horse is talking to those who covet the lifestyle of the rich. He resonates with them. They will reap an economic whirlwind when and if he’s allowed to fulfill his promise. I dont like it, but, I’m prepared. Hope you are.
Your wage slave works for who? Companies that are about to get kicked in the groin by your gang. Maybe your wage slave is smart enough to know it is in his interest for his company to do well. When the rich go on strike it ain’t pretty for the those that aren’t.
Worn out threat BP. Enjoy the ride.
All I know is, when a guy making six figures starts taking up for the “poor old wage slave”, it’s time to check my wallet.
lol
BP,
I live close by/amongst those “rich” you talk about.
They can kiss my as**
-
Yeah right..And they get to watch their precious stock market crash while they are on “strike”.
All I know is, when a guy making six figures starts taking up for the “poor old wage slave”, it’s time to check my wallet.
And if you think someone who can’t even remember how many houses he owns starts talking up for you, it’s time to get your head examined.
And if you think someone who can’t even remember how many houses he owns starts talking up for you, it’s time to get your head examined.
I wasn’t talking about Obama, I was referring to exeter. lol
You saw words which you did not understand, therefore it must mean I was rootin’ for the other team, eh?
Nice demonstration of blue-skew tho. Thanks for that. lmao
Why does government constantly get more expensive? Why does government constantly get more expensive in percentage of taxes taken?
Government operated fine before the bubbles, but going back to pre-bubble tax levels is somehow a budgetary crisis?
The free market goose that lays the golden eggs is being smothered. Free trade occurs because it benefits *both* sides. That’s why it occurs voluntarily.
What is there to prevent the government, to prevent people from voting, to take everything away from another person?
Nothing as far as I can tell. Which means the Constitution is dead for all practical purposes. This will end only in War (as if the Thieves Gone Wild aren’t already at war anyway).
That’s why people in Chicago cheer, clap, and applaud when automobile ticket booters get shot.
Can’t we all just get out of other peoples’ wallets? End the Federal Reserve. End the IRS.
Someone here suggested domer time ago to read “Deer Hunting with Jesus”. I did and it was an eye opener as to why the 30K/yr crowd often votes GOP.
some time ago…
I need to start proofing…
If you enjoy ‘come from behind victories’, maybe watch some sports channel. I, for one, will not be living with a possible president called Palin.
Speaking of coming from behind.
Oh, somebody had to type it.
Why didn’t the Greek want to leave home?
He didn’t want to leave his little brothers behind…
If Russia invaded Turkey, would Greece help?
Laddie,
He originally ran away from home because he didn’t like the way his dad was rearing him.
He returned because he couldn’t leave his brothers behind
Mike
both of them suck! McCain is just the lesser of the two evils.
Now THAT was funny!
President Biden?
One of the campaigns may Die-boldly.
What I want to know is….what’s the over/under on number of days in office before BO’s hair is completely white?
Maybe BO’s just got to reframe the whole thing: being prez now is akin to coaching the Clippers. He’s not expected to make it to the playoffs, just win 15 or so games.
So, if WS finishes more than break even today the Bear is broken? The economy is fixed? Housing is golden? SIV’s, CDO’s, CDS’s, are all ok? NINJA loans are back! Subprime is good again! Weeee! Financial Engineering is working! My goodness! The CEO’s could go back to 40 million dollar payouts and bonuses! It’s wonderful! They are saved!
Of course, everyone else is screwed.
Roidy
The market is behaving rationally. Everyone has gotten too bearish, however. There are too many one way bets. That’s why it’s important to take profits early and often. In this environment and available trading instruments, it’s easy to set off pan!c buying, huge short covering rallies. People are still very bearish. The bears are just waiting for the news to sell yesterday’s forced purchases.
last opportunity to sell the news for insiders, because BB is going to make a 100bp ratecut?
Related to a comment I’ve seen made here several times….
Saw a panhandler here at a street corner with a sign saying “I’m not homeless, I’m *houseless* - Texas is my home”.
Thought it was interesting that a fellow in such a position can make the distinction, yet the MSM can’t seem to when it discusses people having their homes foreclosed on and having to (*gasp*) rent.
Give Leslie a kiss for me.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leslie_Cochran
Houseless? He needs to go to his yearly “diversity training”. I believe the correct term is “house challenged”.
Roidy
While walking out of our building yesterday I had a co-worker tell me that he was tired of throwing money away on rent. I told him that if he was thinking of buying, here in Fantasyland, to let me know. I would perform a Louisville Slugger intervention.
Homerun NYCB!
Yesterday my handyperson asked me who I am voting for and I told him Ron Paul. He laughed and laughed and said he liked that. Why does voter registration make you available for jury duty?
me too. already sent it in.
Sadly, a lot of those votes will truly be “thrown away”. At least here in Austin (perhaps it’s a TX thing?) One has to be a “registered” write-in candidate for the vote to be counted. So, on the electronic machine you can type it in, but at some point the vote will just disappear.
So, apparently I did literally throw my vote away yesterday :/
In Texas having a driver’s license makes you eligible for jury duty.
I thought you had to be a citizen to be on a jury. A legal resident alien can get a DL in Texas, like anywhere else.
Its actually more restrictive than that, you must also reside in the same county and speak Englsih. They do a lot of weeding out at the court house.
City Boy, Ask your friend how he feels about throwing his money away on food.
Man…I could not come up with a way to express this idea. You did it succinctly! You have to live somewhere, right?
I did that. I said, “why eat? You just sh!t it out.” That, he understood.
Japan’s Toyota, Hit Hard Now But Equipped to Steer Clear
Falling Demand, Soaring Yen Drive Down Profits
“…Consider Toyota Motor Corp., whose stock has lost almost two-thirds of its value since February of last year. Like many Japanese exporters, Toyota has been doubly clobbered this fall, first by collapsing consumer demand in the United States and Europe, and then by the exploding value of the yen against the dollar and the euro.
Still, the automaker is exceptionally rich and well positioned for the future. It has about $47 billion in liquid assets, the lowest manufacturing costs in its industry and global leadership in fuel-sipping hybrid cars such as the Prius. It announced this week that it will build a seventh factory with its joint-venture partners in China, where sales, although slowing, have jumped 24 percent so far this year. …”
WaPo
Compare that to the 65% of American business that cannot currently get a loan. Which would you buy for long term growth?
$47 billion ?!? That’s more than ExxonMobil’s cash, isn’t it?
And I find it repulsive that 65% of American businesss NEED a loan. Why don’t they have a 6-month reserve of expenses? God knows they tell US to save up an emergency fund…
We have always operated our businesses debt-free. This has allowed us to weather any storm, including this one. When recessions hit, I buy up assets, or even businesses. I find great talent during these storms.
I once ran a business on credit, and we grew 100% per year. But when we failed, I lost my ass. From doing $60k per month net to losing $300k in 30 days and going broke. I will never, ever do it again. What a stupid idea.
When you have cash, you have the luxury of being ahead of the curve always. I’m a big fan of that idea.
That’s because your pay stinks….
Mr. Martin Wolf has an interesting paper in todays FT
“…Decisions made over the next few months may well shape the world for a generation. At stake could be the legitimacy of the open market economy itself. Those who view liquidation of past excesses as the solution fail to understand the risks. The same is true of those dreaming of new global orders. Let us first get through the crisis. The danger remains huge and time is short.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/87acf38c-a558-11dd-b4f5-000077b07658.html
This looks suspiciously like the “never explain, never apologize” doctrine.
Yet deflation is lethal for indebted economies.
Yes, it is. Perhaps they shouldn’t get indebted in the first place.
Bull-hoo-ey, this is just a whitewash for Keynesianism.
“If you don’t trust us, we will have massive unrest and riots. Shiver ye, shiver ye, and trust us”.
FPSS, I see a lot of chatter about a sustained rally coming up. While I can certainly conceptualize how a market that has been so stretched might snap back, I’m having trouble envisioning the sustained good news that might keep such a market rising for very long. Short ETFs still look too high today even after the monster rally yesterday. What say you? (Your punishment for being both prescient and understandable will be my continued queries.)
No particularly strong opinion at the current moment (how rare for me!)
Good enough for me. Thanks. I’ll sit on my hands.
All I know is I’m far more comfortable being short in this environment than long. More fortunes have been lost by “bottom pickers” than by bulls or bears.
But not yet.
Feel the same way. Every once in a while I look at SSO, but I can never pull the trigger, only because I know the floor is much farther down than I could stomach.
Martin Wolf is a gloomster now. In case you are having problems accessing the full article, here is a gloomy snippet, referring to JPMorgan’s gloomy recession forecast:
“Given the near-disintegration of the western world’s banking system, the flight to safe assets, the tightening of credit to the real economy, collapsing equity prices, turmoil on currency markets, continued steep declines in house prices, rapid withdrawal of funds from hedge funds and ongoing collapse of the so-called “shadow banking system”, these forecasts even look quite optimistic. The outcome next year could be far worse.”
After two extremely dry years, CBS 5 has learned that California will drastically slash the amount of water it gives to districts statewide.
In what could be the worst crisis in Decades, the California Department of Water Resources tells CBS 5 it will cut supplies to water districts by 85 to 90 percent.
“It’s pretty serious right now…California has had its second critically dry year. We are looking at going into a third potentially dry year. We have actually drawn down our reservoirs…we are actually having difficulties delivering water this year,” said Wendy Marin of the California Department of Water Resources.
http://cbs5.com/environment/water.supply.cut.2.850063.html
==================================================
Not a whole lot different than Wall Street accounting, it appears that nobody that works for the California Department of Water Resources felt it prudent to warn the populace of just how little freshwater is actually left in the Golden State, as evidenced by their admission that there isn’t much left, just a few days ago.
We could exist without money, but not without water…
I’m headed to a meeting on climate change in the Sierras, in the (ar)scenic Owens Valley. Scientists and DWP types - it will be interesting. I’ll let you know if I hear anything exciting, like a suggestion of water rationing.
Pikas and reservoirs are declining precipitously.
AK-LA,
Please tell us what you saw and heard…
The Owens Valley was nicknamed “America’s Switzerland” before the turn of the century, a couple of turns ago.
I always try to visualize it as it was, as i’m driving up or down 395.
The Owens Valley was nicknamed “America’s Switzerland” before the turn of the century, a couple of turns ago.
I have heard of Ouray, CO being called America’s Switzerland
A visit to Keeler on the east shore of Owens dry lake is worth the trip.
There’s a massive dock dilapidating, that used to transport Silver from the Coso mines across the lake, way back when.
A few hundred folks live there now, and it frequently gets buzzed by fighter jets from Edwards…
maybe it is a good comparison, because the Swiss expect most of their rivers to run nearly dry in 25-50 years as a result of global warming and disappearing of glaciers (there will be huge fluctuations due to heavier rainfall).
yeah, that’s Ouray’s PR moniker, heard it called that since I was a kid and actually very apt.
Glacier Park is our “American Alps” thank you very much.
Mike
Average household uses, what, 75,000 gallons per year? A typical water tanker holds 8,000 gallons of gas, or about 6 weeks of water usage. Delivery charge of about $200, water charge is about double city water, and you get clean, filtered, quality water.
Buy yourself a nice 15,000 gallon underground reservoir, and get a delivery whenever you hit the 20% mark. Easy solution.
And in wintertime?
Question for you AK-LA: How come they now call it “climate change” instead of “global warming”?
Is it because “global warming” has been laughed out of the room, and “climate change” sounds more nebulous and nerdy and harder to refute?
Nah, couldn’t be …
Does it really matter how we label things, as they are on the verge of changing our lives forever?
Hey dude: go to college, learn things, then come back and discuss them.
Putting your snarky comment to the side, the impacts of greenhouse gases on weather patterns will not be uniform and will (are) likely go beyond incremental temperature increases–i.e., more frequent hurricanes, “flashier” precipitation events (leading to a greater proportion of precipitation making it to the ocean rather than a groundwater basin or reservoir), loss of precipitation stored as ice or snow (i.e., glacial retreat), etc. Some places may experience an a reduction in annual mean temperature. So “climate change” is just a more accurate term than “global warming.”
And, by the way, if you want to put your head in the sand and ignore predicted impacts from climate change (which are damn close to unanimous in the serious scientific community), just be a man and admit that your are too lazy and/or selfish to give a s**t.
Touchy, aren’t we? Ever hear of Richard Lindzen? Maybe you guys are the ones who need to learn something.
Also, Casa, to your point, I repeat a comment I made a while back– which is not original with me– that global warming has become a non-falsifiable proposition. If there are more hurricanes than usual, fewer hurricanes, if it’s wetter, drier, hotter, colder, sunnier, cloudier, it all somehow proves global warming. Is there anything that could happen that would *disprove* it, or even cast doubt on this thesis?
Global Warming (now called “Climate Change”) is the biggest “scientific” hoax of all time. In 5 years of arguing against these politically motivated leftists not one single person has ever been able to provide a simplified linear of non-linear formula of weighted variable inputs that determine the output = Average Earth Temperature.
When you realize these fools are seriously suggesting humans can alter the Earth temperature by 25% you’ll realize these are the same people that sacrificed humans so that the Sun could rise the next day.
Ask for a link to an Average Earth Temperature formula of weighted variables (including things like the Sun) and you will NEVER get one. Yet those very same people PRETEND they understand “science” and mathematical models. Truly incredible. It’s nothing but a new religion without facts and without (even the crudest of) models. Climatologists = Weather Priests.
and your conclusion is based on ??????????????????????????
Yes! Tell us all about it! I wanna’ hear every little detail.
Sounds like a true “liquidity crisis”
Grapes of Wrath in reverse?
Bingo!
Wanna see panic?
Run out of water in the desert.
Took a college course now 11 years ago on water rights in the Southwest. Information on this stuff has been available for decades if you cared to look. Not unlike the economic issues, it’s taken the mass by “surprise”.
I just discovered a beautiful little spring in the hillside by my house, also a pond. Knew there was something up because of the willows and big cottonwoods, but hadn’t had the time to check it out. Moab, which is where I’m at, gets its water from springs. The water falls on the La Sal Mtns as rain/snow and percolates through the Navajo sandstone, takes 40 years to arrive at town, just a few miles away (20 or so). Very pure wonderful tasting water. Even though the Colorado River runs near town, the drinking water is from springs. But places like this in the desert are rare.
I’ve seen a lot of wildlife since I moved here, right by my house, now I know why.
300 cubic kilometers of clear clean water here in Northern Ohio. Almost free for the taking. Long growing season. Come on down.
Lived (briefly - felt like a century) in northwestern Illinois. Groundwater mere inches from the surface. Hydrogen sulfate so strong it tarnished silver bowls in a room away from the kitchen in a week. Clean clothes, fresh out of the dryer, reeked. Linens/towels/hair likewise. Complete mystery to me anyone would live there.
We have areas of nasty alkaline water in spots here in the west too, but nothing like what I experienced back there.
Economic downturn, Wall Street meltdown could mean $47 billion deficit
NEW YORK - Calling the impact of the national economic crisis and the Wall Street meltdown worse than the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, Gov. David Paterson said Tuesday that New York faced a mammoth budget deficit of $47 billion over the next four years that may require a 25 percent across-the-board spending cut.
“New York is at the epicenter of an extraordinary financial crisis on Wall Street,” Paterson said at a news conference where he released the state’s mid-year financial reports. “We will have no choice but to take bold and aggressive action to reduce state spending.”
Paterson, who has called the state Legislature back to Albany for an emergency session on the budget on Nov. 18, projected that more than 160,000 New Yorkers would lose their jobs during the downturn, pushing the state’s unemployment rate from 5.8 percent to 6.5 percent and driving wages down by 2.1 percent.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27426551/
Don’t worry. There will be no impact on real estate prices in Brooklyn, Queens, Manhattan, Westchester and New Jersey. All is fine. Just ask anybody that owns in this area. All I want for Christmas is for my buddies mgnyc99 and edhopper to be able to buy reasonable houses at reasonable prices. I’m never buying again.
From your lips, NYCityBoy.
But as we have seen, it ain’t there yet.
Astoria, Queens
http://carollorealestate.com/details_general.asp?id=15018445
$1.3mil!!!!!
This is also pretty near the creepy waterfront projects…. surreal!
They aren’t building any more creepy waterfront Projects, you know… so buy now or be priced out forever!
Its zoned R4 which means you can tear the dilapidated house down and put up 4 spanking brand new $750+K luxury kondozes..
see it makes economic sense!!!!!
———————————————–
$1.3mil!!!!!
“Needs TLC” = Give your contractor power of attorney over your checking account.
How is Ed…. he hasn’t been posting the last few days.
I’m good.
Sometimes I don’t post because some of my replies never show up. It’s frustrating to spend 5 minutes writing a rant and then not seeing it posted.
I end up lurking a lot.
yep. Same here.
Out of curiousity, NYCB: why “never…again”?
I look forward to owning again eventually, when it makes financial sense. No rent increases (other than property taxes of course), and the ability to do minor projects without asking for permission, and the ability to stay put for the long-term are all worth something to me. Just not 2X! Nowhere near 2X, actually.
I never want to play the game again. I never want to be tied down. I never want to put another nickel in another real estate agent’s pockets. NEVER AGAIN!
Well, that doesn’t make any sense.
What if ITIM is substantially below rent, by say 20%?
I understand the not wanting to be “tied down” part but if they above were true, you could rent it out. (Yes, I can’t believe I’m actually saying this! Someone kill me now.)
Houses aren’t inherrently evil. It just got possessed for awhile. Now they’re getting repossessed.
LOL
Exorcise those prices!
Is Gov. Paterson the only person in the world not asking for loans and handouts to keep the party going? I am very curious about the state budget, as to where you cut 25% with so many entitlements.
It’s pretty sad when the blind guy demonstrates the best vision.
But are they real cuts, or just reductions of increases??
The New York City schools and the infrastructure, that’s where.
*gasp*
A house in Colts Neck slipped onto my radar because of a price cut. Was originally 590K, slashed to 450K, slashed to 349K… all in a matter of 6 months. I email my realtor and it had just went under contract. Now mind you it may or may not have been a deal, just surprised at the cut plus the rapidity that it went under contract… I’m presuming the person is paying cash as that is just too fast to secure lending.
I’ve always secured financing before shopping. Course, that was a long time ago.
I am seeing just a few distressed sale prices in The Fingerlakes NY, just a few.
Colts Neck is the McMansion center of central NJ as far as I am concerned… you got a MLS listing #? Curious to see what kind of property this is.
Not a McMansion. Simple 3/2 ranch on Bucks Mill Pond.
20836134
To put the California drought into an accounting perspective, here’s a photo of one of our many near empty reservoirs, that are a way-station for water from our mountains, before it is transited to almost 40 million of us…
All of the lighter colored areas used to be underwater, and our account looks to be seriously overdrawn.
What’s the value of a suburban house with no water?
http://www.water.ca.gov/newsroom/photo/drought/reservoir5.jpg
Lad,
Where exactly is that?
Ernest,
I’m not sure, but to put things in perspective, click on this link and look @ the photo of Folsom Lake, and specifically the swimming warning sign that is a quarter of a mile away from water…
http://www.water.ca.gov/drought/docs/drought_FactSheet.pdf
(pdf warning, whoop! whoop!)
The ex-reservoir near Three Rivers looks similar. Wishon isn’t so different. Could be most of ‘em.
To add some regional observations, here in Mesa, AZ our last measureable rainfall was at the end of August. ZERO rain in September 2008 or October 2008 (so far).
Zero rain doesn’t fill up any reservoirs anywhere.
I’ll guarantee your water if you’ll guarantee our water, ok?
I’m already shaking in agreement.
All for water, and water for all!
Too bad the water board can’t conjure water the way the Fed can produce dollars.
I think that’s Lake Shasta.
Mike
Lad,
Why are you so fixated on the “California drought?” There have been many periods over the centuries of drought…and it only takes a few years of above normal precipitation to bring reservoirs back to “normal” levels. A series of strong storms will be hitting at least the northern part of the state this weekend, with several inches of rain likely.
What part of 40 million people using way too much water, vs. what’s left in the tank, don’t you understand?
If the old real estate maxim was that you paid 3x your annual salary for a house, and salaries are dropping not quite as fast as unemployment is going up, why should any house in the country be worth more than $100k?
alad:
in the great Mogambo style:
200 THOUSAND DOLLARS IS A LOT OF FREAKIN MONEY FOR A HOUSE!
Yes it is. We just need to get the masses to accept that fact. It will take years to undo the damage of $200K being a “cheap” house.
Depends on what you consider cheap. 200K in the SF Bay Area would be considered cheap for years to come.
and in the Netherlands $200K is considered a decent price for a garage.
aladinsane: I will sell you a put to insure against any one single house in the US worth more than $100K in the next 5 years. How is that for a trade?
Cougar, I will “insure” your put, but please go out and leverage it 20-30 times before I do the same….
Yeah but you are AAA rated by one of our “ultra-trustworthy, completely conflict-free” rating agencies?
Yep and certified by a licensed real estate appraiser as well…
posted yesterday late:
 Comment by WT Economist
2008-10-28 14:41:26
“Did the value of stocks rise by that amount, or the future value of the dollar fall by that amount?
Does it matter? What matters is the value of both, relative to all of our debts.”
-
I can see the DOW at 20,000 if they print enough money.
Absolutely, hyperinflation will be great for the markets….those P/E rations are gonna soar!
PE ratios. Rations is what we’ll all be eating.
RE: National Appraisal Standards Board…
This oversight fed agency which was responsible for making sure state appraisal agencies investigated complaints against crooked appraisers, is such an enormous cesspool of failure and dereliction of duty that the new chief took one look at its’ sorry azz state of affairs and quit after one day on the job.
hehehe…your government in action!
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2008/10/29/after_one_day_appraisal_chief_quit
Somehow I bet the Bush administration didn’t make this agency a top priority funding wise…
OT
Can’t log into Fidelity brokerage account and they’re not answering the phone.
Gulp…..
A lot of companies nowadays run their phones over their internet backbone, with obvious results when the backbone goes down.
I learned this the hard way, when our previous ISP went kaput, what you’re describing is exactly what happened. Fortunately we don’t do transactions through our web site, so I was only somewhat inconvenienced for a few days, until we could switch over. Those running their businesses through this particular ISP were completely shut down, and they literally had to go knocking on the doors of the ISP to find out what was going on.
I just did and made a trade 20 minutes ago, no delay at all.
Yahoo Finance has been slow today, however.
Governor Paterson announces NY deficit to hit $47B over four years
N.Y. — Governor David Paterson has announced that over the next four years, the state is facing a record $47 billion budget deficit due to the recession, overspending by the state and Wall Street’s meltdown.
During a news conference Tuesday, Governor Paterson said the state now faces a current-year budget shortfall of $1.5 billion and a $12.5 billion deficit in 2009-10. He said because of the severity of the fiscal crisis, he is calling lawmakers back for a special emergency session on Nov. 18.
“To do this, we will need the full cooperation of our Legislature,” he said. “We got that in August, and we expect that everyone now sees the gravity of this situation. In order to address these issues, as New York is really the epicenter of the national crisis of finance, we’re going to need federal assistance.”
Paterson said the projected shortfalls in revenue compared to spending and debt are worse than the state faced after the 9/11 terrorist attacks and require drastic action to reduce spending. He noted the state budget has increased from about $62 million in the 1994-1995 fiscal year to more than $120 billion today.
Paterson will be meeting with officials in Washington D.C. on Wednesday to discuss the need for a second economic stimulus package.
http://news10now.com/Video/video_pop.aspx?vids=79777&sid=1083&rid=1013
NYS can not attract businesses due to high tax rates. This budget deficit will force even higher taxes and make NY a basket case.
They still wont attack the civil service unions
Just make it easy to fire a bad worker, and i’ll bet the rest will learn real FAST to enjoy their jobs so when it gets busy they will ..like ummmm not go lunch, or not all go at the same time…so the customer can be helped
what a concept customer service from a guvmint worker.
Chicago HBB Weekly MeetUp
I’m back in town for the rest of the winter (I hope) now that my LA work is finally over. By the way, I hate you California LA folks with a passion, talk about a complete waste of mental space. No offense, just a bunch of mean-spirited bunch of people who force others to their will but are NIMBYs for the same issue. I literally kissed the dirty floor of O’hare on my final trip back.
Since I’m back, I figured it’s time to try the HBB MeetUps again. Same place (Relax Lounge, 1450 W. Chicago Ave in Chicago). Every Wednesday, 8pm on. I’m doing it later since the earlier ones have no traffic, and the later ones might let us grab a few newbies to learn about the housing boom, bust, and leftovers.
If anyone has a desire to buy silver or gold bullion or shot at below spot prices, drop me an email. I generally do not bring it with me to public appearances (since the cops in Chicago confiscate my firearms), but would be willing to work out an exchange of some sorts off premises.
good riddance. glad you left California.
lmao.
‘I literally kissed the dirty floor of O’hare on my final trip back.’
Literally? That’s just plain icky.
Now, I once kissed the floor of a Trader Joe’s in la Mesa CA, but first I brought out my sanitizer handcleaner gel from my purse and liberally wiped a spot on the floor with it, and even then, it was only a quick peck. Since you love Chicago sooooo much, you probably deep-tongued that germy, germy floor.
Again–that’s icky.
do you sanitize your cats? I live in California and I love it.
Enjoy those -10 degree F temperatures and 50 mph winds this January
Febuary is a lot worse!
Friends of mine here in Chicago cannot figure out why I left the sunshine of LA. I explain - it’s not the traffic, the high real estate, the air quality that drove me away - its the fookin’ wankers!
Yeah, we love you too A.B.
Oh and by the way, anyone who thinks they can stereotype 30 million people by saying we are all “a complete waste” is an oxygen thief.
I live here - and we are all wankers… admit it…. The sooner we stop pretending, the sooner we can start working and improving our situation. materialistic airheads and wannabe stars and a bunch of catladies. The cultural aspect is 0% if you compare it to the population.
Yet another dim-witted CA-hater. CA is number 1! CA is number 1! Just kidding, I know we have problems, but abdada was a bit harsh, no?
exactly, V. we can insult the place since we live here, but we don’t need some jackass from chicago doing it.
You’re just jealous because you realize how much better our plastic surgeons are. Oh, and I was the guy in the Humvee tailgaiting you while jabbering on my cell phone about how dull rehab was.
Great lessons from the Telegraph — How Porsche took the wind out of the hedge funds’ sails:
With Porsche already owning 42.6pc of VW and Lower Saxony 20pc, this additional 31.5pc left little more than 5pc of shares free to cover short positions that amounted to nearly 13pc of the company’s stock.
…
But the biggest short squeeze in recent memory was about to take place instead.
As soon as the markets opened on Monday, hedge funds and investment banks’ proprietary trading desks scrambled to cover their short positions. The demand for stock sent the shares soaring, increasing the losses on the short positions and forcing others that had hoped to
hang on to become forced buyers too.
Wouldn’t the top of a short-squeeze spike be a _fantastic_ time to start shorting a stock? For someone not caught in the squeeze, and with ample available margin, this should be a major opportunity.
Why doesn’t this occur–or does it?
it does, but sometimes it days days to play out.
Another leg of this story is the upward impact VW had on the DAX and the DAX on other global indexes. It probably contributed to the recent global short covering rally.
Yep. I trust this rally as far as I can throw a Volkswagen.
The actions that Porsche undertook may very well force Porsche into BK. It is OK to screw around with the little people, it is not OK to F’k the banks in your home country. The Telegraph has it wrong (as usual).
OT - but of course that $31,500 gain overnight on the SLV is great. Just like the ride down from $21 was horrendous.
That is why I avoid the Comex. It is a true den of theives in a land of vipers.
I used to work there at the WTC. They made the movie “Trading Places” with these little train tracks for the cameras right outside my office window. At the end of the movie the guy standing next to Eddy Murphy is Henry Rodriguez,
who worked the gold ring with me in 1983. The opening of the gold market was used in the film to depict Frozen Concentated Orange Juice futures trading.
Uncle Buck looks positively peaked. Now lets squeeze some silver shorts and see what happens. Deflationistas denied?
you just made 31 grand last night?! that sounds like a good day.
Well, I didn’t sell. I’ve been building a position
in the ETF since August 2007.
It’s underwater at the moment.
Cost basis is $12.05
I’m expecting some tidal changes, however.
CNBC just had reported from a LA physical gold dealer with the guy running the place. He said he was hiring 100+ new employees/traders to handle the “overwhelming” demand for physical gold, even if futures price of gold has fallen significantly. And the people they are hiring are ex-mortgage brokers, ex-realtors, etc.
How do the gold bugs on HBB feel about the worst of the RE bubble enablers now pushing gold coins? Is it just me or is this a sign of something not quite right with the gold physical market (again I am no gold expert but when physical price deviates from futures price, one has to pay attention).
There’s no supply of the precious, why would you hire people to sell something you don’t have?
Sounds vaguely reminiscent of 2004, when we were out of houses…
Imagine buying a house in 2001 and selling it in 2005?
It feels like very early 2001 right now, for mellow yellow…
We bought our house in 2001 and sold in 2005, and we loved the housing bubble, but then again we knew when to get on the ride and when to get off.
Timing.
You may get lucky in your timing one time and unlucky a second. The timing is somewhat a matter of luck, no?
it sure feels somewhat familiar….
Why would he need more employees if there is a massive shortage and nothing to sell?
You don’t need 100 more people if you don’t have anything to sell.
i think this antecdote is suggesting there is no supply shortage
Bingo.
It’s time for the sheep to get sheared yet again. Enter the “realtors”.
Are you scared of the big bad Federal Reserve? Those boys are gonna take it all away. Buy gold now before it’s too late, and they steal everything.
And the sheep get led to the slaughter one more time.
Should be entertaining though.
Why don’t you nattering naybobs pick up the telephone and call a coin dealer or 6 in your area, and ask them if they have any physical Gold for sale for immediate delivery?
Why? Gold is a confidence game just like anything else with false demand.
A few thousand years of false demand is habit forming.
He’s not talking about “confidence IN gold”. He’s talking about taking the sheep the cleaners by “recommending gold”.
You scare the cr*p out of them. Jump, sheep, jump, and then you buy it back from them at half.
That’s always fun to watch. Highly recommended.
“…then you buy it back from them at half.”
We are only off by 25 pct so far. Any thoughts on how long until we get through the other half of ‘half off’? Probably not until this period of unusually high volatility is over, I guess…
I also wonder what is up with that, if the shelves are bare.
Can you imagine the sound of 100 clerks counting out gold and silver coins. Would give any goldbug the biggest O of their lives.
When the price was $18 you couldn’t get it very easily…Now that it’s $10, forgedabboudit. I don’t see many physical holder being scared out of anything, it’s the paper traders that are dumping..As above call around, there’s none to be had. Like Chaz Palmintieri in Once upon a time in America. Click as he locks the door ” Now youz can’t leave.
Heading to the Polls, Americans Think Financial Crisis is Halfway Over — But They’re in No Mood to Invest
Who’s responsible for the current mess? There’s plenty of blame to go around. Among those surveyed, 72% blame the financial crisis on excessive spending by American consumers, 64% blame Wall Street, 62% blame excessive borrowing by homeowners and 59% blame the federal government.
The survey uncovered some good news. Though the housing market continues to struggle, 51% believe this is a good time to purchase a home.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/081029/20081029005140.html
I sure hope that 51% are not renters.
if 72% blames excessive consumption and 62% blames excessive borrowing (probably both by the neighbours and not the person who answered the question) that is good news - the American public is discovering what this crisis is all about
News of the Empire:
Yes on no and vice versa is the Emperor’s selection for next week’s election.
Vote early and often…
Sincerely,
Emperor Norton II, of the Inland Empire & adjacents, Protector of Mexico.
Processing the stack of mail on my desk.. Just had to share a bit.
Merrill Lynch sent me a “Portfolio Overview” for my IRA, which I moved into all cash 14 months ago, thanks to the understanding I gained, mostly from people here.
The computer that spit this out chastised me for not having 70% of my assets in Equities and 30% in fixed income. (Guess I need to update my strategy with them). And then it shows a couple pages of graphs comparing my portfolio’s performance vs. their suggested allocation. And every single one shows 100% cash outperforming their recommendations: Prior 3 months, 1 year, 3 years, and entire period (I rolled over in 2004).
Had a talk with my Dad last night - He’s retiring in 6 weeks. His pension (MI Education) setup plus SS is good (My generation will never see anything like that), and they don’t need to take anything from their investment accounts. Which is good, as he told me he’s not even opening their portfolio statements. No point in reminding him of the long conversation we had back when I moved out of equities.
Oh, that’s because it’s all “efficient markets” and MPT (which is “empty’ if you say it fast enough.)
Any fool could’ve seen that cash would outperform.
Good on ya’…
“And every single one shows 100% cash outperforming their recommendations.”
(smile)
The Donald goes BK, again.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122523704293478077.html
Still, Mr. Trump says the building can be successful if he sells the rest of the unsold units.
And I’d be rich if I had $100 million in my pocket too!
Woooooooooooooo, please welcome the “dumb and dumber” of journalism.
Anyone taking bets that the “Spire” site sits undeveloped for the next 5 years? It is being developed and funded by an Irish developer. Ireland has HUGE systemic problems. Bubble madness to the extreme.
bananarepublic, nice try labeling anyone who doesn’t worship your Messiah as a racist. Well, it’s what he based his entire campaign on, so I guess there’s a history of it working but it’s getting real old, real fast.
And no, he’s not a “nice guy” at all. He’s actually one of the most corrupt politicians to run for president, and yes indeedy I do include Dubya (whom I hate with a white-hot passion) in that list. As for “giving back to the community,” that’s demonstrably false. Even the Bushes have contributed more to charity.
Our besotted media has chosen to ignore his very long list of very shady doings but they’re certainly out there if one chooses to look. At least the WaPo today reported on the extremely em, “interesting,” financial shenanigans his campaign has been up to. Although even there, they offer the comforting cover that his campaign people just aren’t smart enough to figure out all the whiz-bang technology that would be require to ensure that all donations are actually legal. I suppose if you believe that he’s a “nice guy” you believe that too.
I guess we all see what we want to see.
http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=6099188
Seems to me, as far as politicians go, we end up all seeing what we least want to see, when the talk is over and the doing gets going.
Suddenly there is a great abundance of gloomy prognosticators. Check ou this gloomy outlook, which sounds more like the spectre of 1929 than of 1974. (I note that October 29 was a bad day in 1929…):
October 29, 2008
Faced With Spectre Of 1974, Fed May Make Radical Cut
The Fed may cut more than expected. Wall St. is hoping for half a point, but three-quarters may be more likely
…
As Bernanke looks into the early part of next year, it should not be hard for him to imagine a jobless rate which moves over 10% and quarterly GDP drops of 3% or 4%. He has one last chance to slow the economy’s momentum in that direction.
Bernanke is out of time.
Douglas A. McIntyre
Ding! Ding! Ding!
“In this corner, weighing in at one-hundred seventy-three pounds, a pointy-headed know-it-all economic poindexter and expert on the GRRRRRREAT DEPRESSSSSION, BEN BER-NANNNNNN-KEEEEE”
“And in this corner, his opponent, weighing in at two tons, having been in training for ninety-five years and with a team of decades of irresponsible monetary policy, the elephant in the room, GREAT DEPRESSION REEEEE-DUUUUUX”
LLLLLLLLeeeettts Get Ready to RUMMMMMMBBBLLLLLLLLLE!
Hilarious dude.
After this rate cut won’t Bernanke be out of bullets or is he saving one bullet for himself and playing Russian Roulette?
Since this it the political thread of the day… Just remembering George Carlin talking about them getting our retirement money. Social security too.
Well, aparently some democrats are proposing that we take peoples 401K money and give them a social security credit for it. So, your 401K might be siezed and put into a pool , probably to pay for healthcare, people who didn’t save for retirement, dumbasses and of course reperations to former slaves.
That is floating around out there. Taking your 401K and giving you an almost assuredly worthless social security credit. Got that?
There are some plans to credit values to pre-crash values so your worthless chit will be a larger worthless chit.
Now, for people like exeter that don’t believe in work, investment, savings but instead rely on the government to do things. This is probably a great plan. For the rest of us, it aint so pretty.
Also note that other amazing plans, such as means scaling on your so soc are under way. That is so that those of us who are saving will get penalized and the money will be there for those of us that didn’t.
Anyhow, I’m sitting in cash and gold at this point. If all this goes through I’m pulling out every dime of my 401K and eating the penalty. No point in saving if your team is going socialist and eating your savings anyway.
Alright. Go F yourselves you beyotches of the incumbants.
When truth, integrity and justice are elusive, grasp and throw any hobgoblin available. Desperate scorched earth strategies seldom work.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122477680834462659.html
This is the “Change you can believe in”!
Folks have no idea what is about to come down the pike, and the media has not told them either.
It’s a communist conspiracy!
I think Argentina was first with this innovative idea?
The government created the 401K…….the government can take it away. Especially the tax structure on them.
Dumped my 401K last year, took the 10% hit. Figured between what was coming down the pike with the banks that 90% of “X” dollars is worth a lot more than 100% of “1/4 X” dollars. Besides, government at all levels is going to be scrambling for tax revenue wherever they can find it. 401K money is too big a stash of money for the government to ignore.
But I’m paranoid enough to not put an “Antique/Classic” license plate on my old muscle car. Fearless prediction: I expect state governments to start taxing antique/collector cars at “market value” eventually (see scrambling for tax revenue above). Why put a bullseye on yourself?
Windy Mechanic:
I’m sure that if Congress decides to start valuing your car differently, then they will not do so by coming to your house and reading your license-plate frame.
Geesh, you Repubs sure are getting paranoid.
McRaisin is losing fair and square; you will be glad later.
I’m not referring to Congress; I’m referring to our local state government.
Some states charge property tax on motor vehicles, payable yearly at tag renewal time. Tax is based on MSRP at time of sale. A $30K car starts at around 6-700 hundred bucks/year, tax goes down over time, but not nearly as fast as the car depreciates. It sucks. Ask anyone that has moved to a state like this, from a state that didn’t put a property tax bill on vehicles. If you and the wife have a couple of fairly new cars, and the kids have cars (pretty much a neccesary evil around here), you could easily be looking at a YEARLY property tax bill of a couple thousand bucks.
Several of the locals have asked me why I haven’t put an “antique” plate on my car. When I explain my theory, they all agree that it is within the realm of possibility……this tells me that I’m not totally paranoid about it.
They won’t have to come to your house…….they will just pull the records for all cars registered as “antiques”, get our a half dozen antique/collector car “price guides”, and send you a bill. When property tax around here is concerned, the burden is on YOU to get a reduction.
I’m a long time Repub, but I’m inclined to vote for B. Obama, mainly because a vote for McCain is a vote for the dipshits currently entrenched in Washington. If you are holding out any hope that some of the Wall Street jerkoffs/mortgage fraudsters/Iraq War mismanagers will find themselves with their sacks in a vise, you can forget about it under a Republican administration
I’m hoping (but not optimistic) that B. Obama can convince the Demo’s that there are too many problems that need attention now, and will concentrate on that, instead of ramrodding thru the most divisive positions of their agenda.
I would hope you’d write in ron paul. Any support for other party candidates would help to break the demopublican stronghold on the system.
It might take a while but in 12 yrs we might be able to break the system.
Oh, state. I didn’t see that.
Govt (dems and reps) have spent every penny of SS money. That’s not paranoia, that’s a fact jack.
First rant didn’t show……so the short version.
Wasn’t referring to Congress…..referring to state government. Some states charge property tax YEARLY on motor vehicles. In our state, if you and the wife have fairly new cars, and the kids have cars for school/work/etc., you can be looking at a yearly property tax bill of $2000, or more.
Current property tax is $12 (on my play-car). If the state decides to pull the records on everyone that has “Antique” plates (pursuing a revenue grab), my bill could go up to $500.
All it would take is one guy with a computer terminal tied into the vehicle registration computer, and a couple of antique/collector car “price guides”. If they revalue it, good luck “arguing with city hall”
Five hundred bucks ain’t much to some of us here……..but last spring Bush and his gang of blithering idiots thought that $600/person would keep a recession at bay.
I keep hearing about all these Democratic proposals on this board, but then when I try to Google them, it turns out they don’t exist. It doesn’t make sense to have cash AND gold, James. Congress will never have the ability to sieze your 401k.
You think so but I have cash and some gold as insurance.
To be clear: this idea was being floated and talked about in Washington and was reported in some talk shows. Its not even close to legislation yet.
However the mind set is clearly frightening.
So, I don’t want either party to be able to take sweeping unilateral action; which will probably occur after this election.
After watching the supposedly conservative republicans with power it was not good. After watching the democrats under BC it also was not good.
Watching Bush start a couple of wars without a good gameplan or goal or need was horrifically painful and I have younger family members in Iraq and Afganistan.
Lots of industries were driven offshore by BC and the democrats with stupid but well meaning tax policy. My family was personally effected because they were in the luxury boat business. I suppose you uberliberals didn’t think that industry should have existed anyway.
And yes, congress can sieze your property if they want to. You and your buddy exeter are advocating for the guys who decided a massive expansion of eminent domain was a good idea; even for private business interests.
You remember that?
Now, I think the effect of dumb legislation will have unintended consequences like gulfsteam mentioned. Which would be massive sell off from the stock market as people try to protect themselves.
James, the expansion of eminent domain came from the Supreme Court. It has never covered 401ks. Congress would have to get political support to raid people’s 401ks, and that’s not going to happen. Whatever talk shows have been floating this idea are making it up.
“Luxury Boat Business”. They might have gone under because it’s a dumb business, not because of Bill Clinton.
We had a budget surplus under Clinton, remember? I agree that that the whole globalization thing has gotten out of hand, but the Democrat version of it (exert economic influence instead of military influence) was different from the Republican version of it (benefit corporations through wage arbitrage). It looks as though it will need to be scaled back.
Here is some of the stuff I found. Of course its the WSJ and they are completely unreliable. At least when they aren’t saying what you want to hear.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122477680834462659.html
As I said there was more about this with some congress critters talking about his being a good idea.
They also don’t have to sieze your 401K but just change the tax status and could really burn your ability to save.
So, the taxes aren’t increased and new taxes aren’t created but tax structure is monkeyed with. That is reading the fine print about obama not raising taxes. Also the bush tax cuts will be allowed to expire.
OK, this was from the opinion page of the WSJ, which quotes a company called “Workforce Management”, which in turn quotes a professor at the New School for Social Research in New York, who suggests taking away the tax benefits of a 401k while simultaneously requiring all employees to put 5% of their income into a government bond program. The opinion piece says that some of the professor’s ideas are being considered, but not which ones.
This is not an idea being floated by Congressional Democrats and being reported by the Wall Street Journal.
Its from a think tank. Those guys the dems/pubs go to for legislation when they aren’t getting it from BOA. I found a link to part of it.
As I mentioned the idea is floating around and was discussed by some congressional democrats as a proposal.
Its bad policy V but you are too warped to understand that.
The eminent domain decision was an activist court decision to help out some democrats. Sponsored by some liberal judges.
Hence a decay of property rights again. All bad.
Here I had thought all problems facing the planet were due to global warming…
Why Iceland Is Melting
by Megan Barnett Oct 9 2008
The country’s short days are going to seem even darker and colder this winter.
Just a little more than year ago, Icelanders were enjoying the good life: a healthy economy, relaxing mineral pools, a new ranking by the United Nations as the most developed nation in the world, and a new Björk album.
…
How did the tiny Nordic island end up on the brink of collapse?
Iceland, it turns out, was run like an overleveraged hedge fund. A booming stock market and expanding economy led it to overplay its tiny little hand in the big international game of banking poker.
We’ll just change the metaphor.
Icelandic bank volcano erupts.
Pronto, a warming metaphor. Invoke Robert Frost now.
SOME say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I’ve tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To know that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.
Freezing would be more ladylike for me and I could think of the Titanic at the same time.
No Joan of Arc here.
Freezing would be more ladylike for me Not a problem for Iceland, they apparently have geothermal energy they haven’t bothered to tap. They found their financial bubble more profitable while it lasted.
I used to think the Scandahooligans were appreciably more honest than the rest of the world when it came to banking, but they turned out to be just as deceitful as the rest of us…
Are you kiddin’ me?
A buncha fishermen numbering the size of a large Tokyo suburb or Cincinnati borrowed $60B, leveraged the motherf*ckin’ sh*t out of it to buy “assets” worth almost $220 B, and then defaulted.
They were leaders alright, leaders of the New Planet of Moronia™.
I wasn’t talking about Ice, Ice baby, in particular…
Na, all people are equally dishonest. The difference is in their fear of being caught.
I don’t think they are much different from most of the anglosaxon countries. They are just a bit smaller, and because of that they were the first to run into serious troubles. There are many more countries acting like a huge hedgefund.
Yeah, well, “size matters”.
size matters, but only if the dominoes stop falling at some point (after the first few countries have been hit). No country is really too big to fail in this game.
Talk to me when the Netherlands acquires a lot of nukes, OK?
Having a hand of nuke cards is like having a Royal Flush, but the other players never bet because they can’t make a hand, and it never gets called.
And then all of the sudden 63 years later, everybody has a Royal Flush…
Tisn’t the size that counts, Tis how many places you can put it.
If you have a big size, you can put it in a lot of places automatically.
Keep up, old man!
Let’s cut to the chase: What will BB & Co do after they cut all the way to zero and real rates remain high* due to deflation?
*Fisher’s equation:
(real rate) = (nominal rate) - inflation = 0 + (some number bigger than 3 pct)
SPECIAL REPORT AMERICA’S MONEY CRISIS
Fed heads toward uncharted territory
Ben Bernanke & Co. are likely to cut interest rates again on Oct. 29. And some experts think rates could soon fall below 1% for the first time.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: October 29, 2008: 12:36 PM ET
Buy debt assets with printed money to lower the spreads.
When they buy long-term US T-bonds with printed money, that’s the real end-game. At that point, even the Precious™ won’t suffice. You will need a plane ticket.
You will need a plane ticket. By that time I doubt the airlines will still be flying. You will need your own aircraft, fully fueled & ready to go. Or better yet, a spacecraft.
They did it in Japan. Didn’t see the people revolt; they took it like little sheep for 10+ years (only started 9-odd years after the initial meltdown.)
There will be plenty of time. Too many sheep. They’ll think “lowering rates” is good for their house prices.
You’ll even have a few years.
I will say it again: BB has written/spoken several times about the options for negative rates, e.g. introducing a 1% monthly penalty on all savings accounts (maybe include the money market accounts as well, now that they are fully insured too?).
Another option is to start a deflation scare that is so convincing that anyone will accept negative real rates, even while official inflation is soaring (maybe they can hire Jas for the job?). The War on Savers will continue as long as this guy is in office, no doubt about it.
This is an empty threat.
You just pull the money out and buy non-perishable stuff like TP or whatever.
There’s a reason 0% is a bound.
2-ply cash is king?
When you impose a “wealth tax” (which is what the above suggestion is), society goes to “barter” pretty quickly.
Having actually lived in a country where there was a “wealth tax”, I’ve seen this first-hand. This is not some theoretical boondoggle. You were better off even buying a car because the car didn’t count as “wealth”. The whole thing was beyond m*ronic and they scrapped it pretty quick down the road.
we have a wealth tax in Netherlands for savings, stocks, gold and other assets while items like homes, expensive cars and luxury yachts don’t count (you can buy most of those items VAT-free).
But maybe the tax works here because the citizens are economically less clever or more obedient than in less developed countries (or maybe government likes the way it props up housing and yachting business and accepts that many people are cheating?).
we have a wealth tax in Netherlands for savings I’m curious how that works. Does the bank statement show a deduction from the balance every month, with that amount going to the government?
Yeah, and how do they report “gold”?
What happens if you buy gold in France, and drive it back? Or if you stash it in Switzerland or England?
I mean, really! For the love of common sense, a wealth tax is comically easy to transgress.
For anything else like stocks, etc. you just build it into the model of doing business. They will adjust once, and then trade at that discount.
Or you just emigrate.
That would have quite a whipple effect.
Are people going to move more money out of MMFs as a result? Where will they put it?
MMFs were just recently guaranteed. Why move out now?
Assuming zero return, it would be costly. You’d be paying them to keep your moneys, fees + inflation. Conservative investors are already getting screwed in other cash accounts, checking and savings. Perhaps they would like conservative investors to start chasing yield again and buy up all those toxic deflating assets and whatnot.
The markets are very efficient at punishing savers right now. There has never been a better time to be so rich that you don’t have to worry about a 25% loss on your investment portfolio.
I must say that I berate your profession for leading the sheeple down the primrose path of efficient markets and portfolio theory and other equally execrable h*rsesh*t.
These are academic criminals. Dole artists pretending to disseminate knowledge.
Of course, since it’s my alma mater that did most of the criminal damage, I wonder what that says about me.
“No alumnus donations for you!” sums it up, I suppose.
PB:
Investors have been losing out.
Savers have been losing out.
Borrower-defaulters have made out like bandits.
“Of course, since it’s my alma mater that did most of the criminal damage, I wonder what that says about me.”
Chicago guy, eh?
Everyone is a gloomster now. Just reading this stuff is depressing.
MARKETWATCH FIRST TAKE
Fed turns very pessimistic
Commentary: No sugarcoating in FOMC statement
By MarketWatch
Last update: 3:26 p.m. EDT Oct. 29, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — There were no comments about the downturn being “contained.” No words about how the Federal Reserve is really more worried about inflation than recession.
Instead, after slashing its target rate to 1% on Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee released a very downbeat statement that left almost nothing for the Pollyannas to cling to as they insist that everything will be OK soon.
The only silver lining is that inflation risks are no longer worth mentioning, not even to placate the inflation hawks on the committee, if they still dare show their heads.
The economy has “slowed markedly,” the Fed said. Consumer spending is declining. Business investment and industrial output have “weakened.” The global slump will damp export growth. And the “intensification of the financial market turmoil” will exert “additional restraint on spending” by consumers and businesses by withholding credit to even well-qualified borrowers.
with the FEDs track record, this is the most convincing evidence ever that inflation is going to surge.
So, that leaves us with what “solutions”:
1. Hyperinflation
2. War
3.
4.
(Any 911 conspiracy folks on here? They’d probably have some fun responses)
Default.
latest news
[$INDU] U.S. stocks hit session highs ahead of Fed rate decision
OUTSIDE THE BOX
Have investors panicked and capitulated?
Commentary: It’s not yet time to come back into the market
By Robert Prechter Jr.
Last update: 11:57 a.m. EDT Oct. 28, 2008
GAINESVILLE, Ga. (MarketWatch) — Is it time to buy stock? Ever since mid-September, we have read that the bottom is in because investors have “panicked” and “capitulated.” But market history does not support this widespread view.
Good technical and behavioral stuff in article. Until a large percentage of bears are bloodied in the nose, lose most of their money, and purged from the market, we won’t see capitulation.
I want to rewrite my rental agreement!
Hell, I want to restructure the whole damn lease.
600 billion to rescue our loser home owner buddies.
I hope they finally find all the lies and cheat sheet stuff.
I wonder if they will need a SS# while they rewrite.
what happened in the markets, is Shrub doing a speech?
The fed only cut 1/2
poopy-doop
lol
Some news you can use:
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/600/42/371999.htm
Wow — I thought U.S. bankers had issues…
“Frenkel Convicted in Kozlov Murder
29 October 2008A jury on Tuesday found banker Alexei Frenkel guilty of ordering the 2006 killing of central banker Andrei Kozlov after an eight-month trial mired in scandal.
…
After 5 1/2 hours of deliberations, the Moscow City Court jury convicted Frenkel and six other suspects in connection with Kozlov’s contract-style murder, which sent shockwaves through the financial community.”
Buck down 2%. The worm may have turned.
how do you play that, though? the other currencies are not much healthier.
You don’t know how to bet against a falling currency?
i know, your beloved gold….
this should make taxmeupthebooty happy:
Postal Service Looks To Cut 40,000 Jobs In First Layoff In History
Updated:
KSLA News 12 Headlines More ]]
Newman!
Oooh, will be get an incomprehensible post?
I kinda miss them. It was like a free acid-trip during the day.
“The tyranny of a prince is not so dangerous to the public welfare as the apathy of a citizen in a democracy.”
Montesquieu
“In 2009 the US Will Be Forced to Selectively Default and Devalue Its Debt
We have seen estimates that next year the US will have to finance a $2 Trillion annual deficit. They may be able to push it further into the next Administration than that by the forbearance of the world, but not by much. We’d expect a significant drop in Treasuries by 2011 at the latest.
It should be obvious to anyone that we are approaching the apogee of the Treasury bubble, with the credit bubble having broken already.
When the Treasury says they are facing unprecedented challenges in financing the US public debt next year that is an understatement.
Once the deleveraging of the markets subsides, the dollar and Treasuries will drop, perhaps with some momentum, as the rest of the world realizes that the US has no choice but to default. This can be resolved in several ways, including continued subsidies from foreign sources in the form of virtual debt forgiveness, devaluation of the dollar, raising of taxes, and higher interest rates on debt.
The problem now is that the US has breached the point where it can service its debt out of real cash flows, and turning this around will require a severe devaluation of the US dollar.
Devaluation and selective default are the only foreseeable systemic alternatives. There are other exogenous paths of a more political nature such as consolidation and war that may color the default a slightly different color, but a selective default it remains.
This is the fundamental situation. Everything else is speculation and commentary.”
Jesse’s Cafe Americain
“Draw the curtain, the fraud is over”
F. Rabelais
“The problem now is that the US has breached the point where it can service its debt out of real cash flows, and turning this around will require a severe devaluation of the US dollar.”
Kind of inflationary considering the US imports alot of oil
“It should be obvious to anyone……”
Since this statement is the foundation of the writer’s argument, one should instinctively stop there and read no further.
Why give facts and numbers, right? Why bother with details when a quick “sleight-of-hand” will do?
Watch the rabbit, watch the rabbit, alley-oop!
I will check the numbers because it was not an interesting figure until you brought it up. Obviously if he is right, I will not report it until after I adjust positions. Easy to check, easy to refute.
But this has happened before and we ended up with deflation, right?
Damn you are funny girl! Wanna go riding on my quad?
***DANGER - STOCK MARKET ADVICE AHEAD***
Sell.Every.Rally tm MormonTeaCo MMVIII
Sell it twice if you know how.
Whatever became of the DJIA’s photo finish on rate cut day?
Credit cards being refused by some Russian businesses. In Putin we trust, all others pay rubles.
I have no love for CNBC, but this interview with Mr. Clayton Daley, Jr CFO Proctor a& Gamble should cause anybody that believes there will be price reductions as a result of oil price drops some concern.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=909641124&play=1
I’m not at all as sanguine as you are on P&G’s ability to push through cost increases.
People will switch to generics. They already are. Their budgets are getting squeezed completely.
What that means for “luxury brands” remains as an obvious corollary for the reader.
YOU MISSED THE F”KIN POINT!!! Get faster slow boy or your pussy cat tail will be hangin’ on the wall with the rest of em.
Rewatch and listen, ignore the white noise and listen to the prices they are payin for non listed commodities. That is reality.
From NY Times Dealbook: “In a letter sent on Wednesday to the nine financial institutions receiving government aid, the attorney general, Andrew M. Cuomo, asked for ‘a detailed accounting regarding your expected payments to top management in the upcoming bonus season.’” A step in the right direction.
from sltrib dot com
LDS apostle’s supposed impromptu warning circles the globe
LDS Apostle Boyd K. Packer on Oct. 12 gave an impromptu speech in his Sandy ward, taking the entire meeting to tell stories of his childhood during the Great Depression and to warn Mormons in attendance of troubled times, saying they are God’s way of humbling the faithful.
“It’s about time the Lord taught us a lesson,” Packer, president of the LDS Quorum of Twelve Apostles, is said to have warned. “A great catastrophe is coming. . . . That’s what it will take to turn our hearts to the Lord. And we will learn from it. Our prayers will be different, less selfish.”
The impact was electric.
Someone claims to have transcribed the speech and sent it to friends and family members on the Internet. Soon thousands of Mormons had forwarded it to everyone they knew from Alabama to Australia. Various versions circled the globe. People mentioned it at church in whispered tones.
Packer’s office at LDS Church headquarters in downtown Salt Lake City received so many queries about the speech that a secretary recorded a message, saying, “the report of his talk is not accurate” and urged members to follow the LDS First Presidency’s 2004 advice never to distribute notes of a General Authority’s speech without authorization.
Julie M. Smith, an LDS institute teacher and blogger in Austin, Texas, notes a few reasons why members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints were so eager to spread Packer’s comments to others in the faith.
“People are scared to death about the financial crisis,” says Smith, who received two copies of the speech and heard it mentioned during a Sunday school class. “They are desperate for a revelation that will help them navigate through our treacherous times.”
Plus, the fact that Packer wasn’t scheduled to speak made members feel that they were getting something “special and important and inspired, as opposed to a ‘regular’ General Conference talk . . . and they feel special and important when they make it known to others,” Smith said. “People really gravitate toward the idea of ’secret teachings.’ It is a weakness, one that I’ve seen in myself and one that we need to be more aware of. There is some spiritual immaturity there.”
Beyond that, Smith, who posted a discussion of Packer’s speech at timesandseasons.org, sees wisdom in the First Presidency’s instructions not to pass along notes from a local conference.
“The scariest thing is that people just don’t seem to realize how dangerous spreading this type of thing is,” Smith said, “not only is there the potential to spread false doctrine, but even if you have a 100 percent accurate transcript, you have taken away the right of a General Authority to speak specifically to a local group about their circumstances in a way that might not be applicable to other areas of the world.”
Just noticing all this construction madness / price bubble in Sandy should have been a revelation, long ago.
Where were the Mormon general authorities when it came to advising their members not to speculate on housing purchases during a real estate mania? My SIL could have really used some guidance from her trusted leaders before catching herself a falling knife.
They were busy out consecrating houses, Bear,
They were busy contributing the tithes they collected to the Yes on 8 proposition.
Don’t get me started…
For as many years as I can remember they have been telling members that a home is one of the very few reasons to go into debt, and when they say it, they use the word “modest” to describe the home in question.
President Faust, who died last year, gave a memorable talk a few years back saying that one of the happiest days of his life was the day he paid off his mortgage.
The fact that many Utahr saints did not heed this advice given across so many years and so frequently only should show that mormonism isn’t a lock-step cult.
Did they all get a command to line up with the children and “drink the koolaid”?
Again, cults “drink the koolaide”. Mormons are free to do as they like. OG is a perfect example of this. Did her crazed zealot father hunt her down and bring her back to the compound? I think not, because she talks about family holiday gatherings.
You all can go ahead and spread hate around about the mormons, I think the majority of our lives speak for themselves, and the same can be said for any law abiding group of citizens.
BTW, I donated quite a bit to Yes on 8, and it was separate and in addition to my tithing.
Prop 8 is about protecting the freedoms of religion and speech in this country, IMHO. It’s about mormons and others being allowed to keep their sanctuaries sacred and not being forced to perform gay marriage against the dictates of their conscience. It’s about being able to teach a religious belief from the pulpit regarding marriage without threat of litigation or prosecution for hate speech.
You all can go ahead and believe what you want about it, but for me it’s about protecting freedoms that ARE spelled out in the US constitution.
Geez, you folks can’t debate policy without first inventing a lie. You know as well as anyone else this is an initiative about civil marriage, and no church will be forced to perform any marriage. Rabbis don’t perform interfaith marriages, Christian churches aren’t forced to perform Buddhist marriages, Mormons aren’t forced to perform gay marriages, etc.
Lie, lie, lie, hate, hate, hate, suppress, suppress, suppress…no wonder most people think you are a bunch of hypocritical nutjobs. Too bad we can’t go back to the days when your religion was persecuted as much as you persecute everyone else.
It was that “persecuting everyone else” that got the early Saints into trouble, but some people take a very long time to learn their lessons, especially if they are unable to think independently because of a habit of over reliance on “GENERAL AUTHORITIES.”
Wrong again, in Missouri it was being abolishionist in a slave state.
In Nauvoo, it was deciding to defend themselves.
You are right, I’m sure the founding fathers intended that any religion that was offensive to any segment of the population should be forced to go quietly into the night.
NSO,
You are right, no church will be forced to perform marriages. They will perform no marriages instead of compromising standards. It’s already happened in Canada.
Additionally, the litigation due to “hate speech” has also already happened.
You no as well as I do that the people to be feared are on the fringes of every group, mormons, gays, muslims, jews. You are sadly naive if you don’t think there are gay people who’s goal is the conversion of straights, and if they can use the law to that end they will.
BTW, gays outnumber mormons in cali about 3:1. If they want to legalize gay marriage let them put it on the ballot for a vote or get their vote in the legislature. Using the courts for your back door defeats checks and balances and is not the way to run a representative republic.
P.S. Religious beliefs on marriage are not a constitutional issue in a nation founded on a doctrine of separation of church and state.
But government should be allowed to dictate it to religious groups?
Separation goes both ways. Tolerance should too.
In Mass, catholic charities has shut down their adoption services rather than obey a court order to allow adoptions by homosexual couples. That church is a private organization, the government shouldn’t dictate a secular morality to them.
“But government should be allowed to dictate it to religious groups?”
How does expanding the definition of marriage to include gays anything to anybody? I see a bunch of hypocrites who claim* to respect the rights of other groups to live according to the dictates of their own consciences, but who actually want to impose their personal standards of private behavior on the personal lives of others.
*Eleventh Article of Faith: We claim the privilege of worshiping Almighty God according to the dictates of our own conscience, and allow all men the same privilege, let them worship how, where, or what they may.
…include gays dictate anything…
It dictates (pun?) because taken in concert with hate speech legislation it could mean a person preaching from the pulpit against homosexual relations could be prosecuted for a religious belief.
P.P.S. Chew on this, dude. These poor souls are not going to get into the celestial kingdom, thanks to their independent views.
Prop 8: California gay marriage fight divides LDS faithful
The church’s effort against gay marriage is its most vigorous since 1970s
By Peggy Fletcher Stack
The Salt Lake Tribune
Article Launched: 10/26/2008 10:24:20 AM MDT
DAVID CALLAWAY
Bernanke makes it official. We are Japan.
Commentary: Race to zero didn’t work then, won’t work now
By David Callaway, MarketWatch
Last update: 7:01 p.m. EDT Oct. 29, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — It’s official. We are Japan.
At least when it comes to monetary policy. The Federal Reserve’s decision to slash interest rates by a half percentage point to 1% on Wednesday to help boost the economy was snubbed by the stock market, even though it had demanded the cut like a petulant child for more than two weeks.
We are AHEAD of Japan.
We don’t have savings. We don’t need to go from the world’s largest creditor to the second-largest debtor over 19 years.
USA #1. We always #1. We be #1 independent of fact.
Didn’t they teach you that in grad school, “Professor”?
You’ll get a better return paying off debt than saving.
LOL
Clearly an ACC education.
last and final warning.
Rising corporate bond default risk, is not a favorable environment for equities.
not only is the price of money about to skyrocket, but the price of equity will pay for it..
bonds, crash.
equities, crash harder.
its global, its underestimated, and its epic…..
when does the talkie come out at the walk-in?
We know. This is obvious.
Like DUUHHHHHHHHH!!!
so bubble boy,
whats it gonna be?
the only bubble on the radar….
gold, oil, silver, grains…
might want to lay in some frozen meats.
couldnt come up with a bwaha on the talkie at the walk in…where are the old guys?
I went to my cooler and other than the regular stuff all I had was Miller lite, Corona, and other Chick drinks (Mikes hard - various flavors, miller chill etc.). Not a friggin Guiness Stout! I clobbered ‘em at bridge and got back and watched Japan and was grateful I froze my account ‘cuz I knew I would be a drinkin. Buy everything, they’ve made all they’re going to. Oops wait til next week gotta get out of my bad positions first.
The authorities are simply propping up the old system — buying time — until functionally necessary and solvent survivors can be sorted from the wreckage.
Are you saying it will soon be a buyer’s market for equities (finally)?
Isn’t this basically a socialistic plan to punish taxpayers in order to reward banks which made stupid loans? Why don’t McCain and his daughter ever talk about Republican socialism?
US weighs mortgage guarantee plan
By Krishna Guha and James Politi in Washington and Joanna Chung in New York
Published: October 29 2008 23:38 | Last updated: October 29 2008 23:38
The US government and federal regulators are zeroing in on a proposal to provide mortgage guarantees to lenders that agree to restructure home loans to ensure affordable monthly payments.
The idea is loosely modelled on the loan restructuring programme being implemented by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation for borrowers at IndyMac, a failed bank taken over by regulators this year.
Actel Corp. at 2061 Stierlin Court in Mountain View is undertaking a 10% reduction in its workforce. Approximately 60 positions are being eliminated.
Activision Blizzard is laying off 6 employees on Nov. 7 at 4247 S. Minnewana Ave. in Fresno and 20 employees on Nov. 7 at 6060 Center Drive, 5th Floor, in Los Angeles.
AIGM and 21st Century Insurance Co. is closing down and laying off 106 employees on Dec. 26 at 1800 E. Imperial Highway, Suite 100, in Brea.
Americam Airlines Inc. is laying off 28 employees on Nov. 1 at North Terminal-Baggage Service Office in San Francisco.
American Airlines Inc. is laying off 53 employees on Nov. 1 at 400 World Way in Los Angeles.
American Eagle Airlines Inc. is closing down and laying off 84 employees on Nov. 2 at 903 and 835 Airport Drive in San Luis Obispo.
AT&T California is laying off 48 employees on Nov. 23 at 2600 Camino Ramon in San Ramon.
Autobytel is closing down and laying off 50 employees on Nov. 24 at 18872 Macarthur Blvd. in Irvine.
Avery Dennison Corp. is closing down and laying off 22 employees on Nov. 30 at 10721 Jasmine St. in Fontana.
California Fraternal Order of Police Fundraising is closing down and laying off 103 employees on Oct. 31 at 4660 Spyres Way in Modesto.
Calsonic Kansei is closing down and laying off 57 employees on Oct. 31 at 9 Holland in Irvine.
Castaic Brick is laying off 64 employees on Nov. 26 at 32201 Castaic Lake Drive in Castaic.
Chase Home Lending is closing down and laying off 58 employees on Dec. 5 at 2633 Camino Ramon in San Ramon.
Community Hospital of Los Gatos is closing down and laying off 58 employees on Dec. 1 at 815 Pollard Road in Los Gatos.
Conagra Foods Inc. is closing down and laying off 25 employees on Nov. 22 at 200 Boysenberry Lane in Placentia.
CP Meilland LLC is laying off 181 employees on Oct. 31 at 631 Walker St. in Shafter.
Dealtree Inc. is laying off 82 employees on Dec. 6 at 16901 Jamboree Road in Irvine.
Ebay Inc. is laying off 184 employees on Nov. 1 at 2145 Hamilton Ave. in San Jose.
Exel Inc. is laying off 102 employees on Dec. 8 at 601 Kinetic Drive in Oxnard.
First Collateral Services Inc. (Citigroup Inc.) is closing down and laying off 26 employees on Dec. 31 at 1855 Gateway Blvd. in Concord.
Gate Gourmet is laying off 325 employees on Nov. 2 at 6701 W. Imperiasl Highway in Los Angeles.
Goodrich Aerostructures Inc. is laying off 87 employees on Nov. 19 at 850 Lagoon Drive in Chula Vista.
Greene Tweed is closing down and laying off 13 employees on Nov. 4 at 7101 Patterson Drive in Garden Grove.
Heller Ehrman LLP is closing down and laying off 76 employees on Nov. 28 at 333 S. Hope St. in Los Angeles; 68 employees on Nov. 28 at 4350 La Jolla Village Drive in San Diego; 404 employees on Nov. 28 at 333 Bush St. in San Francisco and 134 employees on Nov. 28 at 275 Middlefield Road in Menlo Park.
Hemet Valley Skilled Nursing Facility is closing down and laying off 104 employees on Nov. 30 at 1117 E. Devonshire Ave. in Hemet.
Hemosense Inc. is closing down and laying off 29 employees on Dec. 2 at 651 River Oaks Parkway in San Jose.
Homecomings Financial LLC is laying off 21 employees on Oct. 31 at 1650 Corporate Circle, Suite 100, in Petaluma.
Indymac Bank is laying off 56 employees on Nov. 12 at 1 Banting in Irvine.
International Paper Co. is closing down and laying off 86 employees on Dec. 5 at 10555 Iona Ave, in Hanford.
Johnson Controls is closing down and laying off 36 employees on Dec. 7 at 1900 Prairie City Road in Folsom.
Kmart Store #4240 is closing down and laying off 89 employees on Dec. 14 at 19600 Plummer St. in Northridge.
Land America is laying off 130 employees on Nov. 14 at 275 W. Hospitality Lane in San Bernardino.
Maxim is laying off 78 employees on Oct. 26 at 3725 N. First St. in San Jose.
Nexframe is closing down and laying off 72 employees on Nov. 24 at 4819 File Court in Stockton.
NYK Logistics (Americas) Inc. is laying off 142 employees on Dec. 1 at 2417 E. Carson St., Suite 100, in Long Beach.
Perotsystems is laying off 58 employees on Nov. 5 at Building 233a M/S 233-1 NASA Ames Research Center in Moffett Field.
Ralphs is closing down and laying off 55 employees on Nov. 15 at 12625 Frederick St. in Moreno Valley.
Riverside Cement Co. is laying off 85 employees on Dec. 10 at 1500 Rubidoux Blvd. in Riverside.
Science Applications International Corp. is laying off 89 employees on Nov. 1 at 10260 Campus Point Drive in San Diego
Sconza Candy C. is closing down and laying off 82 employees on Nov. 14 at 919 81st Ave. in Oakland.
Siemens Healthcare Diagnostics Inc. is laying off 151 employees on Dec. 30 at 5700,5716,5722,5736 W.96th St. & 9625 Bellanca St. in Los Angeles.
Smurfit-Stone Container Corp. is closing down and laying off 108 employees on Nov. 16 at 19635 E. Walnut Drive in City of Industry and 114 employees on Nov. 23 at 2525 S. Sunland Ave. in Fresno.
Symantec is laying off 172 employees on Nov. 1 at 350 Ellis St. in Mountain View.
The Boeing Co. is laying off 58 employees on Nov. 28 at 2401 W. Wardlow Road in Long Beach.
The Western Union Co. is laying off 54 employees on Nov. 30 at 100 North Point in San Francisco.
United is laying off 59 employees on Oct. 31 at 1 World Way in Los Angeles; 107 employees on Dec. 7 at Los Angeles Int’l Airport in Los Angeles and 499 employees on Dec. 7 at San Francisco Int’l Airport in San Francisco.
Washington Mutual is laying off 51 employees on Dec. 31 at 9200 Oakdale Ave. in Chatsworth.
West Marine Products Inc. is laying off 390 employees on Dec. 25 at 500 Westridge Drive in Watsonville.
A partial list of MAs file in the last 7 days in California. How ’bout west marine 12/25 f’ u buddy your laid off!
That 10% cut jumped out at me. My racquetball partner, just back from a long vacation, told me his firm had cut back 10% of their staff while he was away for a couple of weeks. Fortunately his job is intact.
How many firms could cut back 10% before you had overall unemployment (already at 6.1%) over 10%? I suppose the answer is, in theory, roughly given by
UE = 10% = (Current Unemployment) + (New Unemployment),
= 6.1% + 10%*(93.9%)*X,
where X = percent of firms reducing employment by 10%.
So X = (.1-.061)/(.1*.939) = 41.5%; i.e., if roughly 2/5 of the currently employed workforce faced a 10% staff reduction (net of absorption elsewhere into the labor force), overall unemployment would climb to over 10%.
(This is counterfactual to the full calculation, which would require an integral — too late in the night to flesh that one out…)
new york times
Some of the country’s most famous investors, including Warren Buffett and John Bogle, have started to make the case that it’s time to dive back into the stock market.
They are usually careful to add that they don’t know what stocks will do in the short term. Yet their basic message is clear enough: stocks are now cheap, irrational fears have been driving the market down lately, and people who buy today will be glad that they did.
Fintag says
Not one to criticize the experts but stock bargains exists when:
1. P/Es are low
2. Stock value Stock Value
4. That sort of thing
The question is timing:
1. What will the stock price be this time next year?
2. Will Sales be falling?
3. Will debtors be unable to pay?
4. Will bad debts be on the increase?
5. Will there be cash flow issues because they cannot service their debts or refinance?
6. Do they enjoy high or low currency rates?
7. That sort of thing.
How any one can make these judgements in this market is an a complete idiot.”
Yep. Buy with both hands!!! and Mr. Buffett is getting dotty in his old age. Mr. Bogle just wants to keep the moneys coming in.
Okay, it seems like you’ve found and had a few stouts!! Wish I had some
“The cost to hedge against losses on $10 million of Treasuries is about $39,000 annually for 10 years, up from $1,000 in the first half of 2008, based on CMA Datavision prices.” Bloomberg
That corresponds to the Swaps and the amount of risk owning Treasuries currently cost. There aint no such thing as a free lunch.
Seems a little ridiculous—-wouldn’t the counter-party risk on the swap be higher than the risk of US default? Who would you trust to pay on such a swap? If the treasury really defaults, it seems like everything/everyone else is already effed anyway.
I realize it is somewhat sick, but I just love to read about hedge funds getting absolutely crushed into dust. And there are so very many LTCMs out there that none of them to speak of can look forward to anything like the royal treatment from the Fed that too-big-to-fail entities were given back in 1998.
Hedge funds in trouble
The incredible shrinking funds
Oct 23rd 2008
From The Economist print edition
High borrowing and the credit crisis are bad enough for hedge funds. Panicky clients are worse
…
Over the next few quarters the fallout is likely to be brutal. Between 1990 and last year the industry’s assets under management grew almost 50-fold, to nearly $2 trillion (see chart 2). Now industry executives predict that assets could fall by 30-40%, as clients stampede for the exit. The number of funds, which climbed to over 7,000 as a generation of financiers headed for the gold-paved streets of Mayfair in London and Greenwich, Connecticut, could fall by half.