November 10, 2008

People Do Things They Shouldn’t In California

A report from the Salinas Californian. “Laura Beltran, 22, said she wasn’t surprised to learn that the house she rents from her mother in-law is up for auction: She’s only one of many in her east Salinas neighborhood who have lost their homes to foreclosure. ‘There’s like 10 signs around the corner,’ Beltran said, ‘and three or four houses were left empty.’”

“The rate of local foreclosures continues to climb, said firm owner Bob Thompson, who prepared the report for county assessors. ‘It’s a very significant increase,’ Thompson said, ‘And the rate is picking up. There is acceleration going on.’”

“‘Basically, we’re running way over last year,’ said County Assessor Steve Vagnini. In the first nine months of 2008, he said, more than 2,500 homes in the county were foreclosed, compared to fewer than 900 for all of 2007.”

“For some families, even the help of a housing counselor isn’t enough, Beltran said. After the value of their house dropped sharply and the monthly payments skyrocketed, the family couldn’t make it work. Originally worth $480,000, the house is now valued at $230,000, she said. At the same time, the monthly payment rose from $2,000 eight months ago to more than $4,000 now. ‘We just don’t have the money,’ she said. ‘It’s too much.’”

“Homeowner Esperanza Certa, who has lived in the 93905 ZIP code for the past five years, said she has noticed a big change in her neighborhood. After four nearby houses were abandoned to foreclosure, Certa said she worries that the value of her own home has dropped. She’s also concerned about crime. ‘People do things they shouldn’t; they hide in the yard,’ she said in Spanish. ‘It’s bad.’”

The San Francisco Chronicle. “Home prices have declined in more than 90 percent of Bay Area ZIP codes over the past year, often by more than double digits, according to a Chronicle analysis. ‘Prices are off virtually everywhere,’ said Andrew LePage, an analyst with MDA DataQuick. ‘The vast majority of Bay Area neighborhoods, even along the coast, have seen prices come down 10 to 20 percent from peak levels, and in many cases from year-ago levels.’”

“More than 70 percent of Bay Area ZIPs saw prices fall by more than 10 percent - often by considerably more than that. The mid-range price decline on a per-square-foot basis around the nine counties was 17 percent.

“‘No ZIP code is an island,’ said Christopher Thornberg, a principal with Beacon Economics in Los Angeles. ‘These markets are linked. Of course the chaos on one end is going to affect somewhere else.’”

“Randall Kostick, general manager of Zephyr Real Estate, one of the largest brokerages in San Francisco, agreed. ‘There is no housing market that is immune from economic forces,’ he said.”

The Mercury News. “Memo to Bay Area home buyers and owners: Your days to buy or refinance homes using big loans set at low interest rates are numbered. In the Bay Area, the maximum for these ‘agency jumbo’ or ‘high-balance conforming’ loans was temporarily increased to its current level of $729,750. But the expanded loan limits expire Dec. 31.”

“Of course, with home prices dropping, the rollback in the loan limits is less of a big deal in the Bay Area now than it would have been a year ago, said Todd Flesner of Stern Mortgage in Palo Alto. ‘The $625,500 will allow you to get into a home of $780,000-and-change, with 20 percent down,’ he said. ‘And if you look at median prices in the Santa Clara Valley, that works fine for folks.’”

The Manteca Bulletin. “Dori Beck was singing the praises of the City of Manteca’s first-time homebuyers program. The city has drastically cut down the loan processing time, which is critical in a competitive buyers market. ‘For some families who are lower income and working, this could be the last time they can ever afford to own their own home in Manteca,’ Beck said of home prices that have dropped off as much as 50 percent in some segments of the local market.”

“But as the mortgage planner with Guild Mortgage Co. was talking Friday in the conference room at EXIT Aragon Realtors, a young woman walked into the office. Both her and her husband had lost their jobs and they were looking for help so they could figure a way to keep their house.”

The Sacramento Bee. “In a vivid example of the Wall Street financial crisis hitting home, development plans for a Placer County golf course community called Bickford Ranch crashed Friday in federal bankruptcy court. SunCal spokesman David Soyka said Friday that without Lehman’s money, SunCal Bickford Ranch LLC can’t finish infrastructure work or even maintain the property.”

“‘The Lehman Brothers bankruptcy has created a situation that stands in the way of any new capital coming into the project,’ Soyka said in a statement.”

The Fresno Bee. “Some of the streets are in, but there isn’t much else at Tierra Vista, an idle 44-lot subdivision in Dinuba that is a casualty of Estate Financial Inc.’s downfall. The Paso Robles company is in bankruptcy, and its principals have been arrested. ‘They put in some of the streets but haven’t completed all the street work,’ said Jayne Anderson, city development director. ‘It is sitting there dead in the water.’”

“Richard Alvarez and his wife invested up to $2 million with Estate Financial over six years. The money was loaned to developers who paid the Alvarezes monthly interest rates of 12% until the property was sold. Then, they were repaid in full. ‘I had other investments [with Estate Financial], and it worked out. It paid off really well,’ said Alvarez. ‘They would build a house for $100,000 and sell it for $300,000, and everyone would make money.’”

“Alvarez said the Villa Mira house he invested in was built and now houses a renter, but the rent payments are going to Estate Financial.”

The Press Enterprise. “The third quarter of 2008 was not kind to most Inland-headquartered financial institutions, and local banking experts say tight lending standards and diminished earnings will likely persist well into 2009. ‘This year is the first year in 16 years that 1st Centennial has sustained any losses whatsoever,’ company Chief Financial Officer Beth Sanders said via e-mail. ‘As you know, our losses stem solely from lending to local merchant builders who are unable to meet their commitments due to the unprecedented decline in the housing market.’”

The Orange County Business Journal. “The median price of an existing home in the county has dropped nearly 38% from the height of the market in 2006. Santa Ana, Anaheim and Garden Grove are seeing larger declines in prices, while coastal communities have fared much better. Three of the county’s top five performing ZIP codes since 2006 are in Newport Beach and Newport Coast, with price appreciation in those areas ranging from 11% to 73%. Four of the five worst-performing ZIP codes are in Santa Ana.”

“Homeowners in Santa Ana have seen home values cut in half since the market peak. Likewise, a single-family home in Anaheim lost $243,000 on average since 2006, representing a 71% drop in value, Meyers Builders reports.”

“Among areas that have seen large amounts of development recently, Irvine prices have dropped 17% to 20%, while Ladera Ranch home values are down 25% from the peak of the market. Expect more declines in these two areas during the next few years as many homes there were bought with adjustable mortgages that are due to reset soon, Meyers Builders said.”

“Highpointe Communities Inc., an Aliso Viejo-based housing developer, bought 212 finished lots in an under-construction gated community called Spanish Walk. The 80-acre development, which will total 400 homes at completion, is next to the California State University, San Bernardino, Palm Desert campus.”

“‘Many companies in the real estate industry are talking about buying land, but few are actually doing it,’ said Steve Vliss, Highpointe chief executive, in a statement.”

The Orange County Register. “Tamra Barney, one of the stars of Bravo’s ‘The Real Housewives of Orange County,’ has listed her home in Ladera Ranch for $1.6 million. ‘We’ve been wanting to sell, but watching prices going down,’ said Barney. ‘So we’ve decided we’ll bite the bullet.’”

“Part of last season’s story line on the reality show included discussion about Barney’s work in real estate. She says that won’t happen in the upcoming season because (1) she was unhappy about how her business acumen was portrayed; and (2) she’s taking a break from real estate as the market stays chilled. (Barney is listed as the agent for her home.)”

“Barney said they would probably try to buy a distressed house in a gated community such as Coto de Caza or in Newport Beach closer to where her husband now works. ‘We’d (like to) pick up a foreclosure, or a vacant lot – where ever. We know we can get a hell of a deal.’”

From Broker News. “According to San Diego-based broker coach and former mortgage banker, Dave Agena, the situation in the US is ‘bad - very bad, really, really bad.’ ‘The biggest challenge for brokers is there is no demand for housing - we have overbuilt. There’s 11 months of inventory sitting out there,’ he told AB.”

“And that is not all. According to Agena, new underwriting guidelines are so overreavtive, brokers are struggling to bail out borrowers in trouble. Further exacerbating the problem is the fact that 30% of properties being sold are bank owned. ‘Banks don’t know how to sell property. They sell it at basement prices to cover the loan balance this cascades the problem because it pulls down all the property values,’ he said.”

The Union Tribune. “With unemployment rising and credit drying up, more Americans are struggling to stay afloat – and are looking to their closets and garages for help. Pamela Nuccio lost her Oceanside home to foreclosure in September and has until today to move out of the bank-owned property. She is trying to clear out before she has to face a locksmith and San Diego County sheriff’s deputies sent by the courts to remove evicted homeowners. Eviction orders are up 15 percent this year, said Cmdr. Glenn Revell of the Sheriff’s Department Court Services Bureau. Revell estimates deputies will serve 8,625 eviction orders this year, compared with 7,500 in 2007.”

“‘I keep telling myself it’s just stuff,’ said Nucci. ‘I had things before. I’ll make money and have things again.’”

“‘Foreclosure/moving sale EVERYTHING MUST GO!!!!’ read an ad by Kelley Donnelly, who took out a nearly $250,000 mortgage on the College Area house that her mother left to her free and clear. Donnelly, who had little income, ended up using the money from the loan to make her monthly payments, a plan that had long-term flaws. Her foreclosed home sold at auction last month.”

“‘I’m not letting my son play in the yard,’ Donnelly said. ‘I’m afraid sheriff’s deputies are going to show up.’”

“Nuccio is determined to avoid that. Long divorced, she bought her two-bedroom house for about $270,000 in 2006. Soon after, she lost her job selling condominium conversions. Jobs selling land in Mexico and time shares were a bust. ‘I had always been able to find a job really easily and I didn’t think it was going to be a problem,’ Nuccio said.”

The Voice of San Diego. “Plans to help distressed homeowners have been floated at various levels of government, and there are a few major ones being discussed currently at the national level. For homeowners who’ve been helped by loan modification programs, any drawbacks seem vastly outweighed by their benefit.”

“Kathy Flickinger had been calling her bank early in the morning and late at night for a year and a half when she realized her payments would become unaffordable, trying to work out a modification to her loan. Until she found Community HousingWorks, she couldn’t get a lender to take her call. Finally she obtained a modification to her interest rate, making her mortgage payments affordable. She said she dislikes the sentiment from people who would punish everyone with an unaffordable mortgage payment, and who would allow the economy to slide further rather than create more programs to help homeowners like her.”

“‘The people who aren’t in the situation, they’re lumping everybody into a similar group,’ she said. ‘Sure there were people who were fraudulent and bankers who pushed people into loans, but they want to punish the entire country when they’re worried that somebody’s going to benefit from something that they’re not going to benefit from?’”

“Gabe del Rio, president of a local consortium of nonprofits dealing with the foreclosure fallout, said an attitude of resentment toward distressed homeowners is ill-placed. Del Rio said the fixed lower payment for five or 10 years, as bandied about as part of various rescue plans, also might give the housing market a chance to turn around. If it doesn’t, he said, the homeowners will still have options to avoid foreclosure.”

“‘We’re hoping that people can refinance and that the market bounces back in a decade,’ he said.”

The Bakersfield Californian. “Oildale homeowners Owen Hawks and his wife had a very specific goal in mind when they showed up to a live home auction Tuesday night at the Rabobank Arena. With a budget of $70,000, the couple was hoping to place a successful bid on a two-bedroom home on an acre of land in the Lake Isabella area so they could get away whenever Oildale fogs over.”

“By the end of the night, Real Estate Disposition Corp’s sharp-dressed auction team and lender representatives had sold 45 of the 57 homes on the block for a combined value of $3.5 million. Twelve of the homes didn’t sell because the highest bidder did not qualify for a loan, an REDC spokesman said.”

“The Hawkses, who ended up getting the Lake Isabella-area place for $55,000 (it had gone earlier for about $196,000).”

“By Friday Owen Hawks, a retired crane operator, still hadn’t checked out the property’s water well, but he had begun lining up contractors to put up a fence and remodel the kitchen. He was already looking forward to relaxing in the 700-square-foot, knotty-pine-walled living room, among other benefits.”

“‘I won’t have to haul my boat so far,’ he said.”




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121 Comments »

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-11-10 14:02:01

“Originally worth $480,000, the house is now valued at $230,000, she said. At the same time, the monthly payment rose from $2,000 eight months ago to more than $4,000 now. ‘We just don’t have the money,’ she said. ‘It’s too much.’”

More than 50 pct higher payment for less than 50 pct the ‘original worth’ doesn’t sound like a sustainable contract…

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-11-10 14:24:16

Jingle mails, jingle mails, jingle all the way.
Oh what fun it is to ride on the old foreclosure sleigh!

Comment by Olympiagal
2008-11-10 14:42:01

I like your festive Holiday spirit, Fasty. It gives me a warm and Christmasy kind of glow.

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-11-10 15:12:46

I don’t know if you saw it yesterday but I mailed off my check to join the “mycological society” two days ago for $15.

Now, that makes me feel warm and fuzzy.

Morel risotto, here I come!!!

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Comment by Olympiagal
2008-11-10 15:30:18

I did see your post and verily, I did super-dooper much approve.
Then I sent you three posts urging you to be sure you pick a super smart mushroom guide, as I don’t want a fasty departure from this mortal sphere, even though I’m sure you’d provide some excellent advice and suggestions to Sweet Baby Jeebus.
Everyone gets all dramatic over mushroom danger, and there really isn’t that much risk, unless you decide to eat amanitas. You can learn to i.d. but a few kinds, easily identified kinds like morels, shaggy manes, laccarias, some of the boletes…they don’t look like anything but themselves. And then there you are eating like a king! Risotto morel! Ahhhh….

 
Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-11-10 15:36:43

I am not afraid of food like most Americans I pointed out to the good doctor yesterday.

I like my raw milk and raw cheeses; i like my eggs barely-cooked; i like steak tartare.

And no I have never contracted all the stuff that doctors tell you that you will contract, and neither has anyone who’s eaten in my house.

I have a perfectly healthy and rational relationship with my food.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-11-10 15:51:41

I heartily approve of that attitude.
It’s true, so many people are afraid of food that doesn’t come out of a tube, carton, can, or styrofoam box. It’s terribly sad, really. I mean, where would civilization be if someone hadn’t long ago said loudly ‘Hey! Look at me! I’m gonna squeeze this part of the goat and drink what comes out!’ And then later, probably the same person said loudly ‘Hey! The goat squeezings evaporated and got all thick and moldy and stuff. I’m gonna give it a try!’
I mean, without cheese, wine, bread and other vigorous, bouncy kinds of unsedate food, why bother to evolve? Why bother with the ‘civilization’ thingie at all? May as well be a paramecium.

Because yes, cheese IS that important.

 
Comment by Lost in Utah
2008-11-10 16:11:24

Hey, Telluride has a real bone fido Mushroom Festival, it’s a big deal. Honest, even has a big parade. One of the county comish’s started it. He also just happens to be from San Fran or thereabouts and is a poet. Art Goodtimes is his name, google it if you’re interested.

 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-11-10 16:29:16

Donuts? No. It’s “Mmmmm, cheese.”

 
Comment by Big V
2008-11-10 16:33:35

I think there’s a direct correlation between a person’s skill in the kitchen and their understanding of dirt/grime/mold. Personally, I really like to cook and am extremely unsanitary in my methods. No one has ever gotten sick from eating my cooking. People always ask me what my “secret” is whenever I make anything. I don’t want to tell them that I taste the food throughout the procedure and season it accordingly, always using the same spoon without washing it inbetween. It’s full of my own spit!

 
Comment by Skip
2008-11-10 16:42:16

Supposedly, Mongolians discovered cheese after milk in a saddle bag turned hard and yummy after a long ride.

 
Comment by DennisN
2008-11-10 16:50:27

Fermented foods are just plain good for you: bread, cheese, and wine. There’s something about the yeast getting in there that makes it easier to digest and more healthy.

 
Comment by bluprint
2008-11-10 17:18:13

Everyone gets all dramatic over mushroom danger

I get the same attitude with wine, beer and other spirits made at home. I mean, if people a thousand years ago could make wine or beer, I’m quite sure a reasonable person now can make it. Same with whiskey.

Granted, making it GOOD might take some practice, but there is a big difference between wine that makes you wish you were dead and wine that makes you really be dead.

Mongolians discovered cheese after milk in a saddle bag

The history I’ve heard is similar, except the location was less specific and the bag was made out of a calve’s stomach. And it so happens that rennet, the enzyme used to make milk curdle so the curds can be seperated from the whey and made into cheese, is naturally found in the stomach of calves.

 
Comment by bluprint
2008-11-10 17:20:49

that I taste the food throughout the procedure

Same here, except I have no problem telling people that. If you don’t want to eat my food, that’s just more for me. Anyone who doesn’t taste his own food isn’t much of a cook in any regard, imo.

 
Comment by BanteringBear
2008-11-10 18:43:05

“…that I taste the food throughout the procedure…”

“Same here, except I have no problem telling people that.”

I’m very appreciative of cooks NOT telling me this before I eat their food.

 
Comment by Lost in Utah
2008-11-10 18:46:38

Bear, I’d wager there isn’t a cook on earth who doesn’t taste while cooking. Well, excepting places like Denny’s. :)

 
Comment by REhobbyist
2008-11-10 19:59:54

I wash my hands before and after seeing patients in the office and scrub five minutes with iodine before surgery. Then I go home to cook dinner and clean the spoon after I taste. Oh well.

 
Comment by bluprint
2008-11-10 20:12:09

I’m very appreciative of cooks NOT telling me this before I eat their food.

*shrug*

That’s the way I do it. I don’t run no diner and I’m a pretty fair cook. I like to use fresh ingredeints, homemade stuff. Sometimes I use homemade cheese in pie…unbelievably good.

You can eat at Denny’s, they’ll be happy to not tell you what they do to your food. lol

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2008-11-10 22:27:14

“I like to use fresh ingredients.”

This isn’t a rant about you bluprint, but I always love commercials for restaurants that say they use only the freshest ingredients. I mean, who would admit to using subpar quality foods?

“yeah, our buyers, they buy ingredients of only dubious quality and questionable freshness!”

WTF?

 
Comment by fred
2008-11-12 11:37:33

“I like my raw milk and raw cheeses; i like my eggs barely-cooked; i like steak tartare.”

a little Toxoplasma, Listeria, and Salmonella….. the Toxo you will keep for life and clear the other two - just beware if you become immunocompromised or pregnant

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by EastBayRenter
2008-11-10 14:05:30

What an idiot - How greedy!! She’s going to be living there for awhile!

Housing values in this San Pablo and Richmond ZIP code are in the cellar, but Vicki Barthell hangs tough on her asking price

Vicki Barthell has had her home on the market since mid-2006, shortly after her husband died.

“I want to get out from under the big house payment, get the load off my back and get into a mobile home,” said Barthell, 67, who had to go back to work as a call center operator despite battling ovarian cancer.

A couple of years ago, the three-bedroom, two-bath house with a separate cottage was appraised at $600,000 and that’s what Barthell started off asking. Now the price is $512,500.

That’s high for the 94806 ZIP, which comprises all of San Pablo and a bit of Richmond, where Barthell lives. The median sales price there is $221,750. The per-square-foot price has fallen 40.7 percent since last year.

Has Barthell considered cutting the price to bring it more in line with the area?

“I’m standing firm,” she said. “I’m not going to give it away. It’s more than the average house for this area: I have a big backyard, landscaped with a gazebo; I have a huge entertainment patio; my husband did everything custom in the house.”

Comment by Curt
2008-11-10 14:14:48

I’m standing firm,” she said. “I’m not going to give it away. It’s more than the average house for this area: I have a big backyard, landscaped with a gazebo; I have a huge entertainment patio; my husband did everything custom in the house.”

Oh it’s different; why did’nt you say so.

Bwhahahahahah!!!!

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-11-10 14:25:34

Try this:

BWAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Comment by Lost in Utah
2008-11-10 16:13:17

Hey Puddytat, I told you about this before…this time we had a big rockfall across the canyon from me, the dust is drifting my way…

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Comment by Professor Bear
2008-11-10 14:19:04

I seriously doubt the 94806 ZIP code prices will again approach their 2005 price levels for at least a quarter of a century. This is an area where crime rates go up when the economy goes down, and home prices will naturally tend to go down as well when crime goes up.

Comment by rms
2008-11-10 22:58:03

San Pablo could always be counted on to put a “chicken in the pot” of this former repossessor especially the flat land neighborhoods near the railroad tracks.

 
 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2008-11-10 14:52:09

She’s doing a FINE job of demonstrating the cost of remaining in the denial stage of grief.

Per-sq-ft is down 40%, and she’s only reduced by ~15%. Rather than get it sold back in 2006 for a small price decrease, she’s going to take the LONG ride all the way to the bottom.

 
Comment by BanteringBear
2008-11-10 15:17:18

There are many people like Barthell who are price surfing all the way to the bottom. It’s quite entertaining, really. Certain homes have been for sale since before the market peaked, their prices so delusional even the most overheated markets laughed at them.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-11-10 14:05:53

‘The Really Desperate Housewives of Orange County,’

Comment by Rich
2008-11-10 18:58:15

Click on the link to this story and read the comments, some funny stuff.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-11-10 14:10:55

“‘The $625,500 will allow you to get into a home of $780,000-and-change, with 20 percent down,’ he said. ‘And if you look at median prices in the Santa Clara Valley, that works fine for folks.’”

How many buyers currently in the market have a $154,500 down payment handy?

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-11-10 14:16:30

P.S. Can anyone predict when the denial stage of the housing bubble will end in the Bay Area?

Comment by plysat
2008-11-10 14:18:58

Probably around the same time it ends in L.A. When *that* is… who knows. It’s surreal…

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-11-10 14:46:07

Within less than a year.

Things unravel really swiftly after that. It was the same in the early-90’s in both CA and NY.

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Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-11-10 14:48:53

I should explain my reasons rather than claiming it by fiat.

Basically, these are mostly strong hands and looking to “ride it out” but as the layoffs hit, the weaker hands in slightly marginal territories fold (=jingle mail) and banks start being more aggressive on the appraisal side. Deals dry up, and you get a really nasty quick drop.

Last time, complete denial in late 1990. Complete disaster by late-1991 to mid-1992.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2008-11-10 14:54:09

Thanks for the explanation; good point, FPSS. The weaker hands really control the rate of decline, since they are forced to transact (or walk) when the stronger hands are not; thus the weaker hands set the comps.

 
Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-11-10 15:14:29

It’s always the weakest hands that set everything in motion.

In the stock market, it’s the ones who get hit by margin calls who are forced to capitulate first. They are forced to sell to the market-makers who if they are smart make a bundle.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-11-10 15:51:19

“Last time, complete denial in late 1990. Complete disaster by late-1991 to mid-1992.”

Sounds good to me, especially given the dating of the early-1990s recession (7/90-3/91). The tail end of a recession is typically a pretty bad time to sell a home, as many who might be willing to buy in better times are reluctant to take on a big new financial commitment when they are rationally concerned about job security.

 
Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2008-11-10 16:17:39

“It’s always the weakest hands that set everything in motion.”

That’s soooo true! I’m right handed, but it’s my left hand that gets all the love.

 
Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-11-10 17:51:58

The tail end of a recession is typically a pretty bad time to sell a home.

You really have all the time in the world at that point. People who waited an additional 2 years were really extraordinarily rewarded (because people capitulated after 2 more years of feeding the alligator.)

My call for this cycle: 2012-2013 (depending on the area.)

 
Comment by packman
2008-11-10 19:45:49

LOL at ex. That was friggin’ funny. You owe me a new keyboard!

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2008-11-10 22:35:22

LOL. I don’t think ex has actually had a post having directly to do with real estate since….um….since….uhhhh….

 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-11-10 14:19:11

Bay Aryans still believe in the 1,000 year REIC.

Comment by HARM
2008-11-10 19:10:44

lol - thought I’d seen all the possible variations on that pun, but not so…

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Comment by Pearsey von Peepwig
2008-11-10 14:34:50

Never. They’re already blaming the housing bust on high gas prices, followed by a completely inexplicable recession. Most of these folks will NEVER ADMIT that house prices were ever unreasonably high.

Comment by DinOR
2008-11-10 15:35:43

Pearsey,

Now why would they do ‘that’? Blame their ridiculously over-priced real estate meltdown on gas prices? Or an economic turn of events that defies description?

Oh… because it says “we’re STILL smarter than everybody else!” and, once gas prices and this mysterious economy we’re in rights itself, why we’ll be back on top and bigger than ever!

It’s the only thing they can tell themselves to keep them going.

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Comment by scdave
2008-11-10 15:45:51

Din…On the previous post…I mean late 80’s not late 90’s on the S & L gig…

 
Comment by dude
2008-11-10 16:10:29

DinOr, you are talking to a duck, man!

Pull yourself together!

 
Comment by Lost in Utah
2008-11-10 16:17:49

ROTFLMAO!!

 
Comment by DinOR
2008-11-10 16:59:01

scdave,

Right, the chronology just kind of blind-sided me. It seems like a lot of things that I’ve been dreading for a long while are all coming to fruition at the same time.

( Parent’s health, taxes, market meltdown, yada yada )

You think you’re ready for it, that you have a plan for every contingency and the “black swan” is that they seem to be hitting us all at once? Now… ‘that’ I didn’t have a plan for! LOL ( what else ‘can’ you do? )

 
Comment by pismoclam
2008-11-10 19:00:54

Agena, the banks are so stupid. They won’t sell below what’s owed until they do. Get over it. hehehehehehe

 
 
Comment by Lost in Utah
2008-11-10 16:16:39

Pearsey, just wondering, did you ever get outta that tux on Halloween? :)

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Comment by sam
2008-11-10 15:20:41

When GOOG falls below $300…any day now.

 
Comment by scdave
2008-11-10 15:42:53

Bear…Its has already happened aggressively on the peripherals and is now moving into the core areas…I would say the best areas are off 15% or so from there peak right now…

 
 
Comment by Michael Emmel
2008-11-10 14:23:23

LOL I’m not all that far off and I’m looking at 400k MAX and realistically 300k or lower send I don’t want to give all my money away on a home.

Put it this way anyone with 150k in the bank is probably not going to put more than 100k in a house and leave themselves strapped.

So most people with this kind of money looking to put 150k in a house would actually have at least 300k in the bank.

How many people have 300k in the bank ? And how many of these need to buy a house ?

Thats the problem when you have to start selling stuff to people that actually save we are tightwads. The other group are idiots with windfalls like inheritance.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-11-10 14:33:29

“The other group are idiots with windfalls like inheritance.”

All the folks I know with inheritance who moved into my hood over the past four years bought a home as soon as they arrived. If you are really loaded, a few hundred thousand dollars up or down during a housing cycle is nothing to worry about. Generally speaking, this kind of buyer does not need to time the market, as they will never face a situation where they have to sell because they cannot afford the monthly payment, and the convenience of having a permanent home to own and occupy more than outweighs any discomfort with short term volatility in home prices. In a couple of cases of which I am aware, even if the market never comes back, the loss of a few hundred thousand would constitute a minor fraction of their net worth, after factoring in expected inheritance.

The upshot is that the vast majority of those who had inheritance money to sink into a home purchase over the past several years are already homeowners. I just don’t believe there is a very large number of prospective buyers waiting to get into a first home purchase with $150,000 of down payment money available. In fact, I am inclined to guess the number of such prospective buyers is vanishingly small.

But I am willing to listen to evidence to the contrary, if anyone has some…

Comment by Vermontergal
2008-11-10 14:54:48

HAHAHAHHAH

From all indications, it’s lucky that the average American has $1500 in the bank, let alone $150K.

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Comment by Lisa
2008-11-10 15:19:08

“How many buyers currently in the market have a $154,500 down payment handy?”

That and the ability to document the income to carry that much mortgage.

And I love how there’s mention of “median prices” in the Santa Clara Valley without any mention of the area’s median household income. They’re still not making the connection, nor is the MSM drilling down past the realtor babble.

 
Comment by Ernst Blofeld
2008-11-10 19:21:07

Plus a $200K+ income.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-11-10 23:12:09

Plus looking to buy. My guess is that after taking a 25+ pct hit on their stock / hedge fund portfolios, most comfortably housed wealthy folks are not in much of a gambling mood at the moment.

 
 
 
Comment by Pearsey von Peepwig
2008-11-10 14:22:25
 
Comment by slb
2008-11-10 14:27:18

“Banks don’t know how to sell property. They sell it at basement prices to cover the loan balance this cascades the problem because it pulls down all the property values.” David Angina - broker coach and former mtge banker. Gotta ask, what exactly is a ‘broker coach?’
IMO any bank that manages to sell and comes close to covering the loan balance while eliminating the ongoing costs that are associated w/ empty houses does know how to sell houses in todays market.
I guess the ‘cascading’ prices may be reducing this broker coach’es income, ya think?

Comment by az_lender
2008-11-10 14:31:32

Angina! great name for a guy who must be experiencing pain. Perhaps the JT treatment will divert his attention to a different part of his anatomy.

 
Comment by Big V
2008-11-10 14:38:29

Quiz:

What do David Angina and Steven Vagnini have in common?

Comment by Mormon_Tea
2008-11-10 15:26:36

A cute mangina?

With names like that, they could be totally screwed. But you probably don’t want to go there.

 
 
 
Comment by Neil
2008-11-10 14:30:42

is next to the California State University, San Bernardino, Palm Desert campus.”

ROTFL. That’s tryign to butter it up. Ok, probably not the worst investment… but I remember going out to Palm Desert as a kid to shoot guns. Its not where I want to buy a home…

Got Popcorn?
Neil

 
Comment by mikey
2008-11-10 14:36:15

These aren’t houses anymore, they’re giant sinkholes.

Buy Now before the sucking sound is gone forever :)

 
Comment by Jas Jain
2008-11-10 14:38:42


“People Do Things They Shouldn’t In California”

Why bother living in CA if you don’t do things that you shouldn’t? Then there would be nothing special for Californicators to talk about.

Jas

Comment by Big V
2008-11-10 14:40:55

No! You’re telling me they’re STILL doing that? In that case, what the hell is Prop 8 good for?

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-11-10 14:59:15

‘People do things they shouldn’t; they hide in the yard,’ she said in Spanish. ‘It’s bad.’”

Hiding in the yard is bad?! Gadzoiks! I am a sooper-dooper criminal. I’m always lurking around in the forest, pawing furtively at moss and bothering the frogs and fiddling with sticks and pebbles and other such miscreancy. Is ‘miscreancy’ even a word? Oh, why do IIIIII care, I’m such a scofflaw. I’m above the law. I hide in the yard. Plus, I’m a frog-fondler. I even licked a frog the other day, because it was so cute and green and seemed a bit parched. Then I thought ‘Judging by the kicking, probably it didn’t like that, a giant pink tongue descending upon its struggling body.’* But then I thought ‘Then it should have hopped faster.’
Blame the victim, see, that’s what us supremely bad yard-hiding evil-doers do.

*It tasted like a wet frog. You all ought to know just what that’s like, I assume.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2008-11-10 15:37:36

Careful which frogs you lick, Olygal! I seem to vaguely recall that some frog or toads excrete potent neurotoxins. Effects can range from the hallucinogenic to the fatal.

Comment by Olympiagal
2008-11-10 16:03:40

No, no, this is a healthy kind of frog. It’s probaby like vitamins, man. Besides, it was only an exploratory kind of curious tasting* not like some obsc*ene offense against an innocent frog kind of oral activity.

*See above posts, vis a vis Faster and his new mushroom plans, and my own assertion that a relationship with food should be unsedate and vigorous. And that was a vigorous frog, for sure.
I bet he hates blonde primates for forever, starting last Saturday.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2008-11-10 16:13:03

Or else he really, really likes blonde primates for forever, starting last Saturday.

 
Comment by catspit1
2008-11-10 18:46:28

what is the address up there OG? maybe I could drop by some evening and bury most of myself, popping up at just the right moment like a private surprise party…

licking frogs, what’s next, clubbing baby harp seals? Listen if they’re 21 i think they should be allowed to go clubbing right along with the rest of us.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-11-10 21:22:54

You’re like a freakin’ genius!

If you ever come up this way you must let me know first. I’m still bitter than speeding pullet skipped me, and also someone else skipped me, I forget who, but I’m still upset about it.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2008-11-10 22:43:04

“I even licked a frog the other day, because it was so cute and green and seemed a bit parched.”

Is that what he told you it was? Damn, I need to use that line sometime.

 
 
Comment by milkcrate
2008-11-10 20:32:01

The boffo toad is indigenous to Florida now and excretes said venomous toxins. I think frog licking for euphoria was a species-dependent Western notion. As for mushrooms, dairy farmers still startle trespassing gatherers near Gainesville, people who giggle uncontrolaby or stare at pine cones for eons after eating the shrooms (no doubt not the culinary treats endorsed above).

Myself, I prefer Skyline chili for a bit of a boost.

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Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2008-11-10 23:04:07

Damn, crate of milk! Yer killin’ me! Skyline? (UC grad, here) I’m actually more of a coney guy, myself. Being Italian, the concept of chili on pasta noodles just doesn’t fly. But all that cheese on the coneys….yum!

I went to their website to see if I could order the chili. $45 for 8 cans?? I don’t know what’s more insane: the fact that they want that much or the fact that I’m tempted to actually pay it!

 
 
 
 
Comment by bananarepublic
2008-11-10 17:50:54

Without California the USA would be a 3rd world country. It was almost one with it.

JMHO

 
 
Comment by Jen Bones
2008-11-10 14:39:51

Please see below for corrections and other redactions relating to miscellaneous errata in the Broker News excerpt.

From Broker News. “According to San Diego-based broke broker coach and former mortgage banker, Dave Agena, the situation in the US is ‘bad - very bad, really, really bad.’ ‘The biggest challenge for brokersbroker coaches is there is no demand for broker coaches or for housing - we have overbuilt. There’s 11 months of inventory sitting out there,’ he told AB.”

“And that is not all. According to Agena, new underwriting guidelines are so overreavtiveoverreactive, brokersformer mortgage bankers who are now broker coaches are struggling to bail out borrowers in troublethemselves….”

Luv,
Jen

Comment by rms
2008-11-10 23:43:15

I’m waiting for things to be really^3 bad. :)

 
 
Comment by ahansen
2008-11-10 14:52:37

Owen Hawks, a retired crane operator, still hadn’t checked out the property’s water well, (oops….) but he had begun lining up contractors (and we use the term loosely here,) to put up a fence (fencing “recovered” items is the town’s unofficial primary occupation,) and remodel the kitchen (I.E., purchase a toaster.) He was already looking forward to relaxing in the 700-square-foot, knotty-pine-walled living room, among other benefits (which include easy walking distance to the local meth emporium.)”

In the “Isabella-area” a 700 sq ft living room likely doubles as the kitchen, bathroom, bedroom(s) and parking garage. And that knotty pine wall? It’s structural. On cinder blocks. 55K well spent, Sir!

Comment by Not Mssing It
2008-11-10 15:10:23

“‘I won’t have to haul my boat so far,’ he said.”

Boats usually do sell better when close to waterfronts.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-11-10 15:13:26

It’s not like he bought something in Trona…

 
Comment by pismoclam
2008-11-10 19:13:18

Easy there, Owen is one of the outstanding citizens of Oildale. Previous outstanding citizens, Buck Owens (deceased) and Merle Haggard (looks deceased). hehehehehehe

Comment by ahansen
2008-11-10 21:39:34

Y’all be nice to Merle now….

 
 
 
Comment by BubbleViewer
2008-11-10 15:11:38

“‘I had other investments [with Estate Financial], and it worked out. It paid off really well,’ said Alvarez. ‘They would build a house for $100,000 and sell it for $300,000, and everyone would make money.’”
Yes, Mr. Alvarez, it seems like a foolproof money-making strategy to me, too. Of course, Mr. Alvarez, you may have wanted to consider who was “paying” the $300,000 and whether or not the scheme was sustainable.
It all seemed to work out fine for everyone, until one day, it didn’t.

 
Comment by palmetto
2008-11-10 15:16:38

‘People do things they shouldn’t; they hide in the yard,’ she said in Spanish. ‘It’s bad.’”

What’s wrong with that? I like to hide in the bathroom with some good reading material.

 
Comment by Mo Money
2008-11-10 15:27:15

‘The $625,500 will allow you to get into a home of $780,000-and-change, with 20 percent down,’ he said. ‘And if you look at median prices in the Santa Clara Valley, that works fine for folks.’”

And the clue train left the station long ago for this idiot. Median income in SCV is $85K. 20% down = $156K. Even saving $2K a month it would take you 6.5 years to save up a down payment. We have a lot lower to go in the valley before buffoons like this wise up.

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-11-10 16:40:23

Very few people EVER brought 20% in fresh cash to a settlement. Instead, it almost always came from the equity in the house they just sold. Surely this has been pointed out here before.

There still are people with positive equity, but nowhere near enough of them to make a dent in the supply that’s out there.

 
 
Comment by Mo Money
2008-11-10 15:29:57

“a young woman walked into the office. Both her and her husband had lost their jobs and they were looking for help so they could figure a way to keep their house.”

How about walking your sorry ass into the temp agency and taking any job you and your slacker husband can get ?

Comment by Big V
2008-11-10 16:43:39

They still won’t be able to pay their mortgage. Chances are, their new jobs will be paying less.

 
 
Comment by MEaston
2008-11-10 16:02:18

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) — Fannie Mae may need more than the $100 billion in funding pledged by the U.S. Treasury to stay afloat after reporting a record $29 billion loss and confronting more difficulty in issuing and refinancing debt.

AIG
GM FORD
Fannie Mae

Just one more loan (straw) just one more loan.

When will we get the loan that broke the FED/treasuries back.

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-11-10 16:43:25

We’ll know when yields on the shorter treasurys start their exponential rise.

Comment by packman
2008-11-10 19:50:55

So here’s a dumb question - why the heck aren’t long term bonds through the roof? I mean who really buys these things? That’s got to be about the riskiest investment out there right now - even moreso than real estate. Nothing like being stuck in a low-yield investment for years with the big inflation train coming right down the track at you; not to mention the risk of all-out default.

I would think the 10-year would be at 12% or so; let alone the 30-year.

 
 
Comment by satan
2008-11-10 16:44:21

Don’t you miss Dr. Evil

 
 
Comment by rebarbarian
2008-11-10 16:11:32

Donnelly, who had little income, ended up using the money from the loan to make her monthly payments, a plan that had long-term flaws. Seems logical to me.

Comment by SD_Wangenstein
2008-11-10 16:29:55

“…who took out a nearly $250,000 mortgage on the College Area house that her mother left to her free and clear.”

Am I missing something? WHERE. DID. THE. MONEY. GO?

Comment by Kim
2008-11-10 16:59:44

There should be a special jailblock in debtors prison for folks who screw up a free house.

 
 
 
Comment by dude
2008-11-10 16:16:09

“Laura Beltran, 22″

Do we really need to read further?

 
Comment by ChillintheOC
2008-11-10 16:50:29

I’m standing firm,” she said. “I’m not going to give it away. It’s more than the average house for this area: I have a big backyard, landscaped with a gazebo; I have a huge entertainment patio; my husband did everything custom in the house.”
————————————————————————–
The problem honey is you own a home in RICHMOND which is “Compton on the Water”! You’ll be lucky to unload that aligator for $ 250 k much less $ 512 k.

Comment by Mo Money
2008-11-10 17:18:26

“my husband did everything custom in the house”

What if I don’t like your husbands tastes that are probably outdated at this point ? Should I still be expected to pay extra ? For a bigger lot I’ll pay more but not above average for the house itself.

 
 
Comment by Rintoul
2008-11-10 16:51:52

“‘We’re hoping that people can refinance and that the market bounces back in a decade,’ he said.”

=============================================

Now *that’s* more like it.

 
Comment by dude
2008-11-10 17:24:42

A current question on Trulia Advice and Opinions:

Q: as a loan broker, what if you can not buy back a loan that the bank ask you becouse of early default? 4 answers

FPSS?

 
Comment by WT Economist
2008-11-10 17:26:38

Speaking of not giving it away, anyone see this one?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27648884/

“Despite dismal housing headlines and reports showing falling prices nationwide, owners in some once-hot areas still believe their home is gaining value or at least holding its own. And by hanging onto too-high expectations, sellers are unwittingly keeping the market from finding a bottom.”

“Real estate professionals across the country are reporting difficulty convincing sellers the true market value of their homes.”

Sorry guys, but after all that “real estate only goes up” brainwashing, a change of direction will take time.

 
Comment by markmax33
2008-11-10 17:38:14

I walked by San Diego Courthouse around high-noon today and I saw my first public foreclosure auction in San Diego!!! What a glorious day!! I didn’t get the details or listen very long but does anyone have any details on these auctions? Are the public record? Can we get stats on them?

Comment by dude
2008-11-10 17:53:41

No info, but I will say that I’ve recently heard that some bank are bidding below what they are owed on the property at these sales in the hopes of attracting another bidder/sucker to take the alligator off their hands and avoid adding to the glut.

With trustees sales increasingly due to household income reduction due to layoffs instead of overbuying we might start to see some actual deals at these auctions. Up to this point I’ve mostly ignored them, but I’m starting to perk up a bit at some of the numbers I’m seeing bandied about…

 
Comment by ann gogh
2008-11-10 18:30:48

Hey I think sdrealestatebear knows the deal with the auctions. I’d play hooky to meet HBBers at an auction.
Anybody else?

 
Comment by milkcrate
2008-11-10 20:47:09

County recorder should have the data for the asking.
Happy hunting.

 
 
Comment by Steve W
2008-11-10 18:30:34

“Randall Kostick, general manager of Zephyr Real Estate, one of the largest brokerages in San Francisco, agreed. ‘There is no housing market that is immune from economic forces,’ he said.”

Except Boulder.

(imagine Steve W imitating wheezing laugh by Muttley, Dick Dastardly’s dog)

 
Comment by Martin Gale
2008-11-10 19:28:47

“Of course, with home prices dropping, the rollback in the loan limits is less of a big deal in the Bay Area now than it would have been a year ago, said Todd Flesner of Stern Mortgage in Palo Alto. ‘The $625,500 will allow you to get into a home of $780,000-and-change, with 20 percent down,’ he said. ‘And if you look at median prices in the Santa Clara Valley, that works fine for folks.’”

Sure, that works just fine for everyone who has a spare $160k in cash sitting around. And for $780k you can live, for example, next to a strip mall in beautiful Sunnyvale, with the 101 freeway within earshot. Thankfully, the affordability problem is now solved!

Comment by Martin Gale
2008-11-10 19:45:09

Oops, a couple of folks, including Prof. Stucco, beat me to the punch. I should have known!

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-11-10 23:04:53

Repetitio est mater studiorum.

 
 
 
Comment by BlueStar
2008-11-10 21:11:12

ABX index crash to new lows. Just one more sign that we are not at the bottom. Today I counted 22 out of 25 MBS groups at new lows. Last time that happened was back in July and the index was about 30% higher then. I’m willing to bet this is the stuff that Bloomberg is trying to get the FED disclose in it’s distressed asset buybacks.

http://www.markit.com/information/products/category/indices/abx.html

On a related note: based on today’s closing price of Goldman Sachs @ $71.21 Warren Buffet has lost a cool two billion on his sweetheart deal to buy GS last month.

Comment by Dave of the North
2008-11-11 05:14:20

Buffet’s plan to leave nothing to his children seems to be working….:-)

 
 
Comment by FP
2008-11-10 22:48:11

I was at Home Deopt over the weekend. I saw alot more cars in the parking lot but alot less construction trucks (actually, only saw two). I see mostly “homeowners” buying comsetics stuff, like ceiling fans, paint, lawn lights etc… Are they putting liptsticks on a pig. Yep. Looks like the equity ATM is shut down and the do it yourselfers are making it happen on their own… yikes…

Comment by LongIslandLost
2008-11-11 02:42:37

It could be landlords trying to keep their paying tenant happy.

 
 
Comment by abdul tikritii
2008-11-11 08:04:04

here’s the plea of the toll brothers scumbag CEO to keep house prices high:

http://norris.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/11/tolls-plea-subsidize-house-prices/#comment-19371

 
Comment by MacAttack
2008-11-11 11:30:20

I always thought EXIT Realty was aptly named.

 
Comment by kalyson
2008-11-13 12:56:51

“She said she dislikes the sentiment from people who would punish everyone with an unaffordable mortgage payment, and who would allow the economy to slide further rather than create more programs to help homeowners like her.”

Who signed up for it? These people want us to bail them out for their own stupid mistakes. I am sick of hearing this cr@p from people who refuse to take responsibility for their own financial screwups.

 
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