Bits Bucket For November 14, 2008
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Chances Dwindle on Bailout Plan for Automakers…
WASHINGTON — The prospects of a government rescue for the foundering American automakers dwindled Thursday as Democratic Congressional leaders conceded that they would face potentially insurmountable Republican opposition during a lame-duck session next week.
At the same time, hope among many Democrats on Capitol Hill for an aggressive economic stimulus measure all but evaporated. Democratic leaders have been calling for a package that would include help for the auto companies as well as new spending on public works projects, an extension of jobless benefits, increased food stamps and aid to states for rising Medicaid expenses.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/14/business/14auto.html?_r=2&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Good.
By the time, the adminstration changes, it will be too late. Thank heavens for small mercies.
+1
eff’n eh
Perhaps paying millions in bonuses while begging for cash doesn’t go over too well for car companies either:
http://www.freep.com/article/20081113/BUSINESS01/311130002
I can has golden parachute?
A least one of the big 3 is cutting bonuses for their executives.
I doubt anyone is surprised that Chrysler paid out huge bonuses. From the sounds of it, Ford may be the most serious about turning their business around. In hindsight, it makes more sense. Bill Ford wouldn’t have fired himself 2 years ago if he wasn’t serious about saving the company. But can they make it???
All Obama did, was to lay blame of the auto industry’s demise squarely on ’ssshrubery’s administration, a beautiful power-play by somebody with no power as of yet.
All Obama did, was to lay blame of the auto industry’s demise squarely
When in fact the demise of the auto industry, lays squarely on the shoulders of… The auto industry.
I want a clean slate, and if the opportunity presents itself to lay blame on ’ssshrubery for anything that happened during his reign of error, i’m all in favor of him getting his just rewards…
The Squawk fools were praising Bush for giving a speech yesterday that highlighted the need for free markets and personal liberty. I guess they couldn’t understand that Bush speaking about those things is like Jenna Jamison giving a speech on the values of celibacy.
NYCityBoy,
Thanks for the morning laugh…
I saw that speech: as soon as Bush stopped talking, they cranked up that song that gets played, “Hail to the Chief” or whatever it is. For a second I thought it was the theme to “Monty Python’s Flying Circus”!
Also, the five minutes of applause as he left the building sounded awfully strained…
I wish someone would keep track of the markets when he makes a speech. I swear, he has the anti-Midas touch.
I wish someone would keep track of the markets when he makes a speech. I swear, he has the anti-Midas touch.
——————————————————————–
Yo all….he can star on Heroe’s after his stint at prez. After all, everything he touches turns to sh*t.
Analysts Predict Hyper-Inflation To Push Gold To $2000, Oil to $300 Within Months
Investors warn liquidation of assets and deflation is temporary calm before the storm…
Johann Santer, MD at Superfund Financial Hong Kong told CNBC that he expects to see gold climb from its current position at $710 to a whopping $1500-$2000 an ounce within the next three months.
“Should money should be going into cash, paper?” asked CNBC anchor Martin Soong, to which Santer replied in the negative:
“Not necessarily, we see that for the time being this remains the right strategy to be in, of course people are quite nervous, but once we start to understand again that it will not really protect us from inflation, which most likely will come in the long run, because of all the stimulus packages, I would assume that we should also start looking at the gold price at the moment and find opportunities there.”
http://www.infowars.net/articles/november2008/131108goldoil.htm
It would be news if there wasn’t a day when somebody doesn’t predict hyperinflation and gold to $2,000 within 10 minutes.
Here is my expert analysis. I believe the world will continue to revolve on its axis for the immediate future. A lot of bad economic news will be announced. Governments will appear to act foolishly but will really be acting in the best interests of their friends and puppetmasters. The little guy will continue to be best off by being conservative, saving money and possibly buying gold as a store of value. All the while, wild predictions will continue to be made about the immediate demolition of the known universe.
yes you may be right nycboy but the jets won in foxboro so anything is possible
i just spent the last 3 days with Amgen ceo kevin sharer and he was pretty grateful for their situation as opposed to many other ceos who are teetering on the brink
he is actaully a really nice guy
Did you put out?
And if so, did you get paid in gold?
LOL you guys!!!
You have to really be careful. Being showered with gold and receiving a golden shower are two completely different things.
LOL
Nice!
“All the while, wild predictions will continue to be made about the immediate demolition of the known universe.”
I am more concerned with he imminent onset of beastial savage civil disorder in the large inner cities such as here in LA. Packs of UE ghetto youths roving in packs rioting and looting, and citizens holed up in their walled off compounds with slits in the walls for aiming AK’s and rifled shotguns.
So far all is quiet as a mouse here, and life appears normal on the surface. Only thing which shows up in the news reports are apparant increases in bank robberies and sporadic but ominous reports of home invasions robberies, even in the vaunted LA westside.
the inner cities will receive tons of aid from an Obama administration and a Democratic Congress. In La there is a huge network and agencies already in place to transmit billions in bailout monies for work refief programs, grants, jobs training, make- work programs ,many of which are aimed at inner city youths. Much of it is graft and will go into the pockets of administrators and will be patchup programs like plugging a leaking roof with duct tape.
The inner ghettos do not suffer that much during recessions/depressions as they are always depressed and their denizens know how to survive bad times. They will hole up 10 to a housing unit with in-laws, get tons of gov’t freebees, and go underground in a barter economy. During the recessionary downturn of 1990-1992 i saw the inner city flush with cash.
Large parts of it were the fruits of shady/illegal dealings and stolen property but this is how the inner city gets thru a depression.
Don’t any of you find it strange that mellow yellow is about the only financial instrument that hasn’t required a guarantee or giveaway, in order to allow it to keep up it’s value?
Not in the least.
That didn’t stop its value from cratering.
Hello, Mad Max!
lol fpss
i tried to buy my coffee this morning with gold _no go
they only take cash
btw this morning i am moving my savings out of fidelty ny muni market into boa they have an fdic insured mm that pays like 3% or so
better safe then sorry
3% in this enviorment is fine by me for now
“i tried to buy my coffee this morning with gold”
I was thinking about that last night, looking at a vintage car lot in St. Pete. What would yield a better deal on the car, cash or gold?
Dollar Enthusiasts:
What’s it like having all of your eggs in one basket?
We’ll give you a dollar if you shut your big bazoo about gold and go away to Oil City, PA!
I’m down to around 1/3rd of 1% of my assets in wrecked angles, so I feel your pain-if only slightly.
We’ll just have to give you a golden shower.
“What’s it like having all of your eggs in one basket?”
I have no problem with you getting ahead in the bust. I hope we all do. I don’t like that you’re promoting gold and hopeful for societal collapse. It’s a paradox. You’ll be rich, but what til it buy you?
All of my eggs are in the “I enjoy civilization and people” basket.
“but what til it buy you?”
til = will
Here’s a story about golden showers, interrupted.
==========================================
http://www.theage.com.au/news/travel/gold-bathtub-stolen-from-hotel/2007/05/30/1180205329470.html
Muggy,
I’m only giving you a glimpse of what to expect in the future, and how to plan accordingly.
Some of you think I want the end of the world and nothing could be more untrue.
I do look forward to the end of business-as-usual, however…
Anyone who has all of their eggs in one basket is a fool.
B.S.
I’m just assuming, but i’d guess most of your assets are in U.S. $ denominated items, like the majority of our countrymen.
As in:
‘Anyone who has all of their eggs in one basket is a fool.’
Emperor, can you try practicing what you preach?
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-11 16:39:44
5. Stop repeating same message over and over and over and over and over.
I’m just assuming, but i’d guess most of your assets are in U.S. $ denominated items, like the majority of our countrymen.
I forget, how is all that lovely Mellow Yeller commonly denominated?
Your guess is completely unfounded. It would scare the crap out of me to have all my eggs in one basket in an era of such great uncertainty. If every day weren’t groundhog day for you, you would remember some of my earlier posts that I have a significant holding in both gold and silver. It is not so overweighted though that I am in dire emotional straights if it doesn’t perform well. I can evaluate it’s performance with less emotional urgency because I am not anchored by it.
From all that you say Alad buddy, emotional urgency is the only way that you can look at your one big play. Intense emotion, especially fear, clouds insight. I don’t think it is prudent to put one’s self in that situation, ever. I’ve made that mistake myself, when you hadn’t graduated from short pants, and I won’t repeat it. I don’t wish you ill or that you fail in your strategy, I just think it is a dangerous one.
I do think we will see gold $250 before we see gold $2000. That is just my opinion. If we do see gold at $65,000, as you predicted a while back, I don’t expect I will live long to enjoy it. Too many resources for too many possibilities, and I will stick out like a sore thumb. I will tell my kids where to find their inheritance and live without fear.
Put all your eggs in the one basket and — WATCH THAT BASKET.
- Pudd’nhead Wilson
B.S.
I am trying to instill confidence in people about the future that’s coming whether you like it or not, and you think i’m distilling fear?
The most important thing i’d recommend right now is actually food.
An awful lot of our food is imported and a lot of boats are sitting anchored all over the Far East, as it’s economically unfeasible for them to sell the seize.
What you might not be able to figure out, is that I want people to survive. Folks like you and the vast majority of the rest of you that read, but never post.
We have a year’s worth of food on hand, and it all gets eaten, so where’s the fear exactly?
A number of times i’ve seen you offer advice in the guise of biblical passages, and sorry…
But the world’s done with blind faith for now.
You missed my point completely, again, which is probably why you always respond with a personal insult to bolster your position.
God bless you Aladinsane.
P.S. Ships aren’t docked because of why you think they are.
Waitasecond!
And waitasecond again!
I thought aladinsane said this past summer that we’d be running out of food because all of California was ploughed over for McMansions and, of course, we’d all be out of water by the end of the year.
What’s changed?
“I’m only giving you a glimpse of what to expect in the future, and how to plan accordingly.”
We agree that there will be change, and that housing is crunk.
However, I do not agree with your view of the future. I am planning on working with my family, friends, neighbors and town to ensure that food, water and safety are preserved. I trust that most of the people I know will want to continue in this manner as well — IF it gets that bad.
I understand why you are the way you are. Many people I know from the West Coast and NYC view society through bipolar frames. The truth is that the rest of the country is not as urgent and desperate.
For sure Florida will go Mad Max, we’re about 60% there already.
‘A number of times i’ve seen you offer advice in the guise of biblical passages, and sorry…
But the world’s done with blind faith for now.’
Shoots, because I’m a big fan of quoting bible passages. I got the scriptures just a memorized away, like you wouldn’t believe nohow! (The precious, sooooo precious legacy of being raised by nutter Mormon fundamentalists. Thanks mom. Thanks dad. Thanks Profit Horndog Joe.)
Here’s a fav:
8 ¶ We have a little sister, and she hath no breasts: what shall we do for our sister in the day when she shall be spoken for?
(Song of Solomon 8:8)
Me and my sister Rachel like to quote that one to sister Bexsy, see how wild she gets. She may not have much torso ornamentation, but boy does she have energy. Also a vocabulary that I should think a Christian, a REAL Christian would not admit to. Sigh. But that’s my clan. Buncha skinny high-strung potty-mouths.
skinny high-strung potty-mouths. My one weakness…
‘I forget, how is all that lovely Mellow Yeller commonly denominated?’
I could show up anywhere in the world with a Troy Ounce, or Tola or Tael’s worth of the precious, and sell it very easily @ the going rate in whatever currency is being used in that given country, and the same proviso exists for every other country in the world
A fungible easy to trade item that has universal appeal, just like Dollars used to be…
“She may not have much torso ornamentation”.
Oly,
I got a good laugh from your description of “sweater muffins”
Mike
Olympiagal: How YOU doin?
‘Olympiagal: How YOU doin?’
Well, lessee, seattle renter. I’m a skinny, high-strung, potty-mouthed chick with a slight hang-over. (see below posts)
Also, I don’t like developers too much, and I wish I hadn’t eaten all the Cheetos yesterday. Other than that, I’m doing great, and thanks for asking.
How YOU doing?
That’s funny oly. I just had cheese puffs for dinner with a side of pirates’s booty, and chocolate covered graham crackers for dessert.
Yesterday I was too frazzled to even take out the trash for trash day!
Actually, i forgot.
Well, I’m an average to athletic build IT contractor. Don’t much like developers either, or mortgage brokers. I had a hang over yesterday but not today, and I’m glad I ate a bunch of cashew-macadamia butter on French bread today.
That’s how.
‘I’m glad I ate a bunch of cashew-macadamia butter on French bread today.’
Sexy!
“al of my eggs are in the “I enjoy civilization and people” basket.”
I am in the i enjoy the beach basket. Perhaps we are heading toward economic armageddon here in LA with gangs running riot over the streets and local gov’ts competing with said gangs for who can steal the most money from the harried citizenry.
I don’t bother to much about these things as i race down to the OC golden coast and hopefuly get smashed by some big breakers. Or take a kayak outing. Or ride my bike in the balmy 70-80% heat along the golden sun -splashed shores of huntington beach.
The short treasures will pay 1-3 % yield, gold will stay same or maybe go up in 2009, stocks will be up & down like a roller coaster for a long time, basially flat for a while, real estate bottoms in 2012 and stays flat for 4-5
years after that. We may get hyperinflaton in 2009,or
alternately deflation next two years .10-15 %
of US pop will be out of work in 2009-2010, property crime & bank robberies go way up ,consuming % retail is dead, Obama will pump billions into work & jobd trainig retraining especially in the big cities.
” What we do with the time we have left on this earth is the single most important thing in life”
Gandor from ‘Lord of the rings’
When I think of cratering, Wall Street products such as Bear Stearns, Fannie & Freddie or Lehman Brothers are good examples of deep wholes.
Only if the only button on your Investment Playstation is “long”.
I shorted the cr@p out of all three (Merrill too), and all I got was a pile of cash out of it. Damn! Whatever will I do with it?
Quick! call the gold experts so I can lose it all.
Fiat Accompli
It’s better than a deflating asset like gold.
“Only if the only button on your Investment Playstation is “long”.”
That’s one thing I don’t understand, why are the shorts so vilified and underrepresented? Some people made billions in this collapse by betting the RIGHT way against many of these companies. Listen, it’s not the shorts fault that these companies were basically running a massive Ponzi scheme!
Psychology.
Nobody likes the nattering nabobs who were not only right about the companies being bankrupt but made a fortune on it.
They think we’re rubbing it in (which we are but we’re putting our money on the line.)
“It’s better than a deflating asset like gold.”
Maybe.
But then again, if I were an Icelander who had visited this blog and converted a LARGE chunk of my krona into physical gold say, 6 months ago or earlier, I’d be feeling a s**tload happier right now.
DOC
Any Icelander who had shorted their three pathetic banks would be set up for life.
But keep believing that the gold cavalry will show up for you on time!
Some of us notice that it hasn’t “kept up its value” for quite some decades. The guy who wrote the above babble is a shill for the gold miners anyway.
Gold is going to 2000 (the year not the price) along with everything else. The biggest expansion of credit in history is over. You’ll get the memo, eventually.
Please don’t state any facts to the gold-crowd. Facts are for losers.
(as gold falls upward)
Gold is a hedge.
A double sweet decaying hedge.
dude, I was under the influence that this blog was a place for contrarians that had a clue.
Maybe not?
“Facts are for losers.”
Keeping it real here FPSS? Facts just get in the way and economic fundamentals are beholden to hope.
Hope, in child’s disguise,
is there to lisp its pack of lies.
Unless you are a bank, then the biggest expansion is right NOW. Stealing $ to buy out your (bankrupt) neighbor. Yet on the otherhand, money is being destroyed at a faster pace than they are willing to create it, so what is the result? Deflation for the masses, but an odd form of hyperinflation for the bailout recipients- which (still) is hidden from public view. The moment these banks are comfortable with pouring out the loans, even if it is forced by “they” (I caught hell for that awhile back-who is they?)
That is when we see Alads scenario. I hate to see the bashing back and forth between the two groups that have grown out of this mess on this blog, especially when both (at the moment) are right. Only time will tell… Olygal has a way of saying knock it off and get along way better than I can ever put it, but telling someone to get lost because of their opinion shows weakness. Alad can and does irritate from time to time, but with good reason, he wants you to think. outside. the. bucks. (I made an Alad funny!)
‘…and deflation is temporary calm before the storm…”
I bought gas last night for $2.35/g at one of the main oil company retail gas outlets. I showed the bill to my son who was with me a couple of weeks back when we paid $2.55/g at CostCo, which is normally cheaper than the big oil retailers. In my entire life, I have never before seen gas prices drop at their recent rate of decline. I have to concur that this seems unlikely to persist without a reversion.
Back in ‘78 they told me at Standard Oil cum xxon, that Colorado shale oil would be quite the thing once oil got to $40 bbl. How much was gas then?
In all your life, you didn’t see the pension fund crowd jump into commodities in the name of “diversification” and “uncorrelated assets” either (fancy way of saying we’re jumping in where prices go up and get snookered while we’re at it.)
What’s your point? There were never any fundamentals to the rise. Why be surprised at the fall?
I agree there are no fundamentals to explain the price decline. That is why I expect another leg up in
gaspetrol, oil, gold, commodities, etc. — this is a manifestation of the credit tsunami troughs and crests washing over the global economy.There were no fundamentals to the rise. The decline is perfectly predictable given the rise.
Oil is back where it should never have left.
Eventually the neo-Keynesian money-pumping will cause a rise but I’ll bet on a lot more down before up even bothers to show up.
“there are no fundamentals to explain the price decline”
Say what? How many billions of barrels demand evaporate when construction of millions of houses and offices and malls and mines and condos and toy factories and cars and cargo ships and yachts and airplanes and and and…… stop all over the world?
What could be more fundamental?
It was a mania!
Now the world is on antipsychotics.
Ditto
US has seen it’s first drop in Oil consumption
Shipping and construction have ground to a halt
Manufacturing is dropping off.
There are plenty of fundamentals to explain the fall in oil prices.
I think there were plenty to eplain some of the rise. Like increasing consumption in third world and reality that opec and oil majors sit on far less oil than they admit. OPEC quotas and political power are influenced by how much oil people think they have. Oil majors stock price is affected by the same. No one really holds their feet to the fire when they state how much oil they have. Thus it is almost certain that there is far less oil out there than people think.
C’mon, whenever the stock market does poorly, alternative assets classes become popular. Commodities were a popular play back in the late 1970’s and another boomlet was in the late 1980’s. This was the biggest though.
When did I figure it would end? The same as the other times ; when commodity index returns became negative.
This gas that you people keep talking about, what do you use it for?
OK, I bought petrol…
You just got some gas because of a bad Jack Daniels + bean burrito combo deal. It’ll pass.
Same thing as you NYCB. I pay and pump mine directly. Yours is paid and pumped directly by the transit authority or cab company. Unless you have holes in the bottom of all your shoes you pay exactly or more than anybody else.
I average riding in a car about once a month. I drove during a vacation last year. That is the only time since 2005. The liberation from the automobile is the best thing about living in NYC. I do not look forward to ever going back to being an auto-slave.
+1
Living in easily the least unsustainable place in our country, somehow makes up for lack of drive?
Unless you live your entire life within walking distance of where you sleep you use some kind of transportation whether its a car, bus or bike. I’m trying to start a car share program in my town modelled after the car share program I use when I’m in Philly. The obsticles to get it started are more than I expected. Does anyone have any experience with a startup like this?
“I average riding in a car about once a month.”
I can’t even imagine what that’s like.
It’s wonderful.
+1
(Best day ever when I sold my car!)
How do you tow the boat, waverunners, snowmobiles, and ATV’s? Do the cabs have hitches?
We don’t.
We just borrow other people’s a.k.a. rent assuming we care about these things.
People use this gas stuff to truck all of your FOOD to the corner deli so that YOU have the privilege of bragging about walking to get said FOOD.
No sh-t. I don’t think I was bragging. I’m just pointing out how nice it is. Did you see me say anything about “carbon footprint” or any other lame term? But go ahead and be a d!ck. It is good that you are learning how to use the caps lock key. Bravo!
It’s clear that living in the city consumes much less energy than living in the country. When the oil peak hits living out in the middle of nowhere is going to become much more difficult and expensive. Mad max won’t exist if there isn’t money for asphalt. US states are having a hard time getting asphalt because oil majors invested in cracking devices to turn what was previously used as asphalt into gas for our cars.
I am trying to imagine how burnt-out, crime-ridden, polluted, and violent heckholes like Baltimorgue, etc. are going to be “sustainable” in the future when currently they are full of a mix of willful poor and criminals who have successfully driven out nearly everyone who can afford to leave. Crumbling buildings and miles of asphalt in a city where you probably can’t even grow food without it being stolen are the “sustainable” future? I doubt it!
I’ve been surprised by the speed of the drop as well. It seems to be going down every day. The cheapest I’ve seen so far is $1.95.
1.88 this morning.
Is it possible though this is an overshoot of the correction as well??
$1.69/gallon here this morning.
Probably an overshoot, but I’ll take it.
I’d love to load up on 10,000 gallons at these low prices, but like everybody else-I have no place to store liquidity.
Most everybody’s tether is about 30 gallons on hand, and that’s it.
Here is the RBOB chart. About $3.60 down to $1.30 says about all you need to know. Granted the Gas co’s even out the fluctuation and are much faster to raise prices then lower them.
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RB/C8
Perhaps the Obama administration should be putting oil back into the strategic reserve? Naah, buy low, sell high is almost never the government plan.
$2.30 a gallon here in western WA.
Paid $2.43 yesterday in Southwest Colorado. Our prices shot up fast and are going down much slower. Guess those station owners have to pay their mortgages on their overpriced houses.
I paid $1.99 yesterday in N. Texas. I bet another 10% drop is on its way to you.
$1.82 Costco North Idaho. Fill ‘er up!
When this price decline began, we were told it was because demand was dropping. Demand has continued to drop - so much for the inelasticity of the demand curve.
The continued drop in demand with such low prices is more interesting to me than the drop in prices. Joe the Consumer still doesn’t want to drive to the mall.
or build a house.
The same thing can be said for housing price drops. Less and less buyers at lower and lower prices. Many people who thought they would be buying a house at the bottom, won’t.
Johann Santer, MD at Superfund Financial Hong Kong told CNBC… I’m not the only person who found that company name amusingly prescient am I? Because “Superfund” has some negative connotations to Americans…. http://www.epa.gov/superfund/
AnalystsGuys Who Own Lots of Gold Predict Hyper-Inflation To Push Gold To $2000, Oil to $300 Within MonthsInvestors warn liquidation of assets and deflation is temporary calm before the storm…
Bricks of precious metal make great doorstops too. I think the real gold lies in having a recession proof job, eliminating debt and being in good physical and psychological health. Once that trifecta happens, you are fully prepared for the rebound.
Tain’t Enough…
Japan ready to lend $100B to IMF bailout fund
By TOMOKO A. HOSAKA – 2 hours ago
TOKYO (AP) — Japan is ready to lend up to $100 billion to the International Monetary Fund to support nations reeling from the global financial crisis, its prime minister said Friday.
The pledge by Prime Minister Taro Aso was among proposals outlined in a statement released ahead of a two-day Group of 20 meeting this weekend in Washington, during which Japan hopes to raise its clout as a global leader.
Aso blamed much of the crisis on individual governments’ failure to monitor and regulate the emergency of new financial products.
“We should not forget, however, that at the root of this problem lies the issue of global imbalances…that the deficit of the U.S., the key-currency country, is being financed by capital inflows from around the world,” Aso said.
He called for improvements in the IMF’s role in monitoring financial markets and detecting potential crises early, and urged member countries to boost the Fund’s financial resources for emerging countries.
“Japan is prepared to lend a maximum of $100 billion to the IMF from its Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account, as an interim measure before a capital increase takes place,” Aso said.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gtUfJtYyWw4aVg9Ioryssamm4v4wD94EKBM01
I never quite get japan no matter how long I live here.
They devalue their currency to keep exports high, They then take the money america gives them for their exports and buy T bills thus basically giving our money back, now they putting money to the IMB to prop up their foreign markets..man
“I never quite get japan no matter how long I live here.
They devalue their currency to keep exports high, They then take the money america gives them for their exports and buy T bills thus basically giving our money back, now they putting money to the IMB to prop up their foreign markets..man”
So, effectively they’re restraining consumption of imports in order to maximize production of real products and maintain high employment among skilled workers and engineers.
Pity them. Life must be hell there without the Free Market.
Are you trying to tell me that Japan has 100B sitting around to lend, and didn’t need to print bonds to lend it?
That’s unamerican.
But notice how Japan is lending the money ,they aren’t giving grands or free money .
They have a lot of nerve actually guaranteeing something with their very own money…
Where is their sense of honor and fair play?
“We should not forget, however, that at the root of this problem lies the issue of global imbalances…that the deficit of the U.S., the key-currency country, is being financed by capital inflows from around the world,” Aso said.
So what are they going to do about it ? loan more money to the U.S.
On PMSNBC yesterday, one of the great financial minds of our time, Maria Barcelona was explaining to the ignorant masses that credit makes the world go round and that lenders need to lend and businesses and people need to borrow, to get things back to ‘normal’. However she went on to say the good news is that people are saving more and not borrowing as much. Wow, with an intellect like that I would think this ding bat should write a book.
And time is not being kind to old Maria. Her face is starting to look like a piece of half chewed Angus beef. You could cross the Hudson on those lips. What do money honeys do when their looks fade and people realize just how dumb they are?
Retire on their loot?
And go crazy because they miss the spotlight so much. Old money honeys don’t just fade away. They burn out in a pile of Vicadin and Beefeater martinis.
You should put that on a t-shirt and send it to Rick Santelli.
I love Rick, he’s by far (well, him and Steve L) my fav reporter on CNBC. He’s funny, and doesn’t take himself too serious (ahem, Dylan R!). Actually, I like quite a few of the reporters on that channel; unfortantately most of them aren’t the anchors! I would pay 100 bucks a month to have Jeff Mackie as a full time reporter on one of the shows that’s on while the market is open!
They burn out in a pile of Vicadin and Beefeater martinis.
There are certainly worse fates in life than riding out in a Feel No Pain Cocoon.
Michael Fink …Darn, don’t you think Steve L isn’t the biggest ‘cheer-leading shill they have on that Cable network ? I agree with you that Rick Santelli is a royal crack up with his
one-liners .
Interesting that lately Crammer is Mister truth-teller ,at least a few programs lately looked that way (I don’t catch all his programs ). Dylan is on a kick to get transparency (can’t say I don’t agree with him ). What I hate is superficial
reporting for the purpose of getting Main Street back in the game again . But, Dylan is right that confidence cannot be restored until the public is satisfied by a exposing of what really went wrong or what is really being done . Lets start with the premise that it was a bogus Mania,(with criminal elements ) in which true price discovery is needed ,coupled with layoffs and lack of consumer demand as a result of that false debt market .Not much demand for criminal convictions ,or a more complete investigation ,but look who their advertisers are .
Anyway ,lately the Anchor Cheerleaders have been more honest than I have ever seen them be . I think they are finally realizing that they are taxpayers also ,as well as having a vested interest in the Power Brokers solving the problems correctly . Just my opinion of course .
Must be hard to explain the wild swings of the market ,especially on days that bad news is released .
It used to be banks needed people to actually save so they could make loans. I guess since reserve ratios don’t mean sh*t anymore and banks can just borrow from the Fed ad nauseum, that model is over and done with.
People just don’t fully understand that the banking system is totally fubar.
She is not losing her looks she is gaining her weight.
..
I don’t care what you guys say about Maria Baritone-O; she’s still got a NICE pair of underground storage tanks bobblin’ around under that jacket she keeps ‘em covered with.
Come ‘on Maria ….. Let the puppies breathe !!
..
I think they should move Giada over from the food network to CNBC!!!!
Well they’re finally getting round to giving away cars with houses here in South Africa, although I don’t think an 8 year old Land Rover Freelander is going to exactly bring in the crowds.
If it comes with the “Blaster”, that’ll be a hot deal!
IMO, this housing bubble and the collapse has revealed how people that the media listen to really don’t understand economics or even plain reality:
‘Now matter which area of the market is hurting, Cramer said during Wednesday’s show at the University of Iowa, it all comes back to housing. He opened the show talking about the “parade of horribles” we’ve seen lately.’
‘No matter what we’re talking about, Cramer thinks the epicenter of these problems is housing. Consumers who couldn’t afford a home took out a mortgage anyway.’
‘The solution is to fix housing. So anytime you hear of a new plan or initiative to bring –much-needed stability to that sector, Cramer said you should be happy. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are going to make it easier for people to stay in their homes? Great. Such moves are the only way stocks will go higher and give your 401(k) the chance to recover.’
‘We also need to stop new building, Cramer said. Banks should be forbidden from granting credit to homebuilders, at least for now. We have to get the supply down. And the government should offer a huge tax credit to anyone who buys a house. That’s another way to get some inventory off the market.’
‘So until home prices even out, Cramer can only recommend his usual stable of stocks’
There are so many economic contadictions in these statements, it makes my head hurt. Keep prices up, but builders stop building? A freshman business student could see how that won’t work. Does this fool really think we can just suspend the laws of supply and demand indefinitely for the sake of 401ks?
This guy is recommending stocks? I wouldn’t let him shine my shoes!
In many ways, Cramer’s set reminds me of a baby’s crib…
Lots of audio-visual treats @ easy reach.
He panders to grown-up adolescents, so the toys aren’t that much of a stretch, I guess.
His callers should all be taken out and beaten, especially the ones that put their little mutant offsprings on the phone to yell “booyah”. Just what we need, another generation of troglodytic mouth-breathing buffoons. His show is everything that’s wrong with this country, all wrapped up in a one-hour package.
Cramer is pretty much Soupy Sales with a sales pitch, isn’t he?
Don’t get me wrong
He’s a nice guy
I like him just fine
… But he’s a mouthbreather!
— The Jesus Lizard
Wow. A Jesus Lizard Quote.
I’ve thought the same thing. Anyone who gets stock tips from someone playing with a Busy Box is a few short of a six pack.
The man with the loud honking noise and bright colors has the answer! Yes, I WILL buy GM!
Busy Box- hahaaa!
Cramer is right. The solution IS to fix housing. The problem is, he, and his overpaid insane clown posse, have played kick-the-can and cure-the-hangover-with-more-tequila for so long, they can’t do anything else.
20% down (cash money, no piggyback nonsense), 120x rent, 2.5x income, no booking of deferred interest, and a 2-5 year seasoning of debt before selling. That will fix a whole lot more than housing.
That will fix deflation (as in making sure we get some more).
Since the alternative to deflation is hyperinflation and the continue rewarding of crooks and over-consumers over productive members of society, I’ll take deflation any day of the week.
People fear deflation for the unemployment it can create. Fine, but is it really worth “having a job” when you can’t afford to buy much of anything because of run-away inflation?
Governments fear deflation because it slows the velocity of money. Hard to get sales tax when money is saved not spent.
No worries I expect Ben Bernake to propose a savings tax if we get full blown deflation and cash hoarding.
If I give my LL two thousand a month I am a loser and pathetic. If I don’t pay my mortgage I get all sorts of attention and goodies. If I pay my mortgage I get deductions. If I don’t pay my rent I live in a tenement yard. I want credit for supporting selfish landlords and I want it now.
He told everybody a year ago that the bottom was in in housing and that they should be buying right away. The FCC is a joke. The SEC is a joke. This guy should have been shut down long ago. He has probably bankrupted more people than Las Vegas has. Plus, he is so annoying. I hope he gets throat cancer.
Your anger is warming in this cold November rain.
Cramer and Maria Bartiromo — 2 great financial minds. <;(
How do these people get on television?
Wait - Maria as a couple of large assets to show off.
What about Cramer ?
He’s just one giant boob.
‘We also need to stop new building, Cramer said. Banks should be forbidden from granting credit to homebuilders, at least for now. We have to get the supply down. And the government should offer a huge tax credit to anyone who buys a house. That’s another way to get some inventory off the market.’
I believe he was trained as an attorney (not an economist), which might help explain why his proposed ‘remedies’ sound much like fascism.
He lived next door to a few of Ted Bundy’s victims.
Are they sure it was Bundy?
Andrew Sullivan has a link posted of various Peter Schiff interviews, one on CNBC and a few on Fox. While Schiff hasn’t been right about everything, it’s amazing to look back at interviews done in 2006/2007 to see the derision that he was subjected to. My favorite clip is watching Ben Stein recommend Merrill Lynch as a buy at $76.
It has become obvious over the past couple of years that just about anyone can pass themselves off as an expert or an economist. CNBC is the worst for these type of people, Dennis Kneale, Larry Kudlow and regular guests like Don Luskin and Art Laffer. These guys haven’t been right about anything in years, anyone who may have been stupid enough to listen to their advice has been wiped out and yet they unashamedly get on the air and continually spout the same nonsense day after day.
Ben Stein should have paid more attention to his father’s admonition:
“Anything which cannot go on forever will stop.”
There are many perma-bulls who appear on the various shows, but Stein may win the prize as the most consistently wrong. On top of that the guy has the gall to release a book titled, “Yes, You Can Supercharge Your Portfolio!: Six Steps for Investing Success in the 21st Century”.
Sounds like that book is destined to join the ranks of similar titles, such as “Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust - And How You Can Profit from It: How to Build Wealth in Today’s Expanding Real Estate Market (Paperback)”
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BEN had a blog the other day suggesting that he has lost a lot of money. It brought a smile to my face.
“Anything which cannot go on forever will stop.”
And his father wasn’t even aware of Rash Limpbaughs or Dawn Inshannity.
His more recent yahoo writing was kind of funny. “Gosh, I’m surprised to be worth half as much as I was a couple months ago - oops. Even though I was in supposedly safer retirement investments, they were retirement-y enough.” (paraphrased)
Go to youtube and type in Peter Schiff Laffer. Watch the video from 2006, if you haven’t already. If the field of economics had any integrity, Art Laffer would have been run out on a pine rail. The nonsense he spews is stupid and dangerous. I hope somebody hits him with a brick.
Yet, he keeps on getting invited on shows and asked to write editorials in the Wall Street Journal. For some reason we have developed a culture in this country where being consistently and dangerously wrong doesn’t disqualify a person from being an “expert”.
It’s akin to professional sports team coaches in many ways.
There is a certain segment of them that are really useless, but keep get hired on with other teams, because they are “experienced”.
There is something that makes people feel better when they hire someone who has experience, even if their experience has been presiding over a disaster. The Federal Reserve recently hired one of Bear Stearn’s risk management people (I can’t remember the guy’s name). Who in their right mind would make a hiring decision like that? I’m sure it was justified by citing his experience.
insane -
Is that why your beloved Buffalo Bills hired Dick Jauron?
“Head Coach: Dick Jauron
Pro Career: Became the 14th coach in franchise history on Jan. 23, 2006. Jauron enters his third stint as an NFL head coach after serving as the head coach of the Chicago Bears (1999-2003) and as interim head coach of the Detroit Lions for the final five games of 2005…
Career record: 36-50 …”
http://www.nfl.com/teams/buffalobills/coaches?coaType=head&team=BUF
That “experience” was touted in the last election, too. I never saw anyone ask “What about the experience of making the wrong decisions most of the time?” Does that really count as more desirable than learning from studying the experiences of others, made in the past? I would’ve thought that one who had mainly BAD experiences would not be worthwhile, as a leader. But then, in this financial crisis, they put WHO in charge?
sf jack,
I’m so used to losing seasons that Jauron threw me for a loss by winning the first 5 stanzas, but a largo of losses lately is more par for the course…
Re: Jauron: A nice enough guy, I suppose, and players seem to like his demeanor.
But not a very good head coach, IMO.
Jauron is like a Tom Landry that never wins anything…
Wide Right.
“I hope somebody hits him with a brick”
Lol!!!!! Your quite a comic NYCB. Thank you, I needed a good laugh today!
Man, I forgot just how much of the stepchild treatment he (and Roubini and others) used to get when appearing on those shows. Reminds me of how I used to be treated when I’d bring this stuff up with acquaintances.
Laffer asks Schiff to bet him a penny and write him a letter if he’s wrong: Schiff replies by saying “I’ll bet you a lot more than a penny”!
Schiff is listed as “Former Ron Paul Economic Advisor”. Those two guys are definitely cut from the same cloth.
That video is a good illustration of why Ron Paul didn’t have a chance to get elected: he got that same stepchild treatment by the media and the other campaigns. Paul and Schiff are the people who should be getting elected: instead they get mocked and shouted down until its too late.
Obama couldn’t possibly ‘change’ the things that need changing as effectively as someone like Ron Paul could have. He rung up too big a bill in order to getting elected, just like everybody else ever has. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
Laffer … isn’t it laughter?
‘We also need to stop new building, Cramer said. Banks should be forbidden from granting credit to homebuilders, at least for now.’
Let’s force people to move to a McMansion in the Inland Empire and commute three hours, no matter how much gas is used, by stopping construction closer in?
Ben ,I wish I would of read your post before I posted mine above .You have dissected that junk that Crammer spits out . Crammer was saying yesterday that it was a fools rally in so many words ,but who knows what he will say the following day that will not make sense at all . Is Crammer a loose cannon, or a shill ,or just a guy that is basking in the glory of gaining ratings lately by his power to influence by his off the wall statements ? I just don’t trust the guy ,and I didn’t like his fire in the movie house approach to disclosing problems . Crammer was a rah rah cheerleader for bail-outs ,than he goes about the process of
bad-mouthing them after they take place and than he makes more demands .
Guys like Crammer can influence the markets ,so the guy is dangerous
if his motives aren’t good ,or hes a loose cannon ,or a shill . Course the
TV channel always puts their disclaimers under his advice that they are not endorsing his advice ,so they are off the hook .
i remember the day i turned on my tv and couldn’t figure out whether or not i was watching an “investment” show or sportscenter.
crazy.
Where do I get my bailout? I am sure I can think of plenty of things making me deserving. I didn’t buy a house in the Bay area because I thought they were too high. I need a check to cover what I should have made in the runup. And I need some help to cover my living expenses, so I can buy a new car, take exotic vacations, big mall trips, etc. And I need to finance my big business idea. A pirate store, gourmet dog pampering, and make it yourself candles all under one roof. I can use the soon to be defunct Mervyn’s building for a great mall location. Oh, I forgot, the Coronado Mall in Albuquerque is near bankruptcy. Help me out, Uncle Barack.
To me, it’s funny to hear all this talk of bailouts. Do you really WANT to be making cars right now? Or be flogging MBSs on Wall Street? The PTB are flailing around, ditching disasterous plans, day after day, coming up with new ones, etc. Who cares? This is the biggest financial event of our lives. I for one am working 15 hour days, trying to decide how much to expand, what markets to go into next. These are boom times people.
Ben, what markets are you going into? I believe there are probably areas of the country where there are opportunities. But being a knife-catcher doesn’t seem fun. What are some of the things you are doing?
what is it that you do my friend? as in what business are you in?
I don’t want to say as it may give things away to competitors. It’s foreclosure related. Who can doubt that there are a lot of problems out there. And if one is providing solutions, problems are a thriving business.
Make hay while the sun shines Ben. Good fortune to you.
I have also made the haul of a lifetime off of the present situation. Crisis don’t last forever though.
You’ve talked about expanding already…..who knows, maybe you could franchise out to some of us who are way out yonder.
B.J.s Wholesale Repo Warehouse.
Around here and in other parts of the country where it freezes in the winter one idea for a “boom” job is to sell yourself as an empty home “winterizer”. You go around for a fee to all the foreclosed houses and drain the water out of the pipes so they won’t freeze, and put RV antifreeze into the toilet tanks.
“It’s foreclosure related. Who can doubt that there are a lot of problems out there. And if one is providing solutions, problems are a thriving business.”
just tell em to quit paying the mortgage for 3 months and get a reduction on the mortgage. just kidding good luck up there I always liked Flagstaff esp. in the summer. Too hot here in Phoenix.
When are these stimulus checks going to start coming with a warning ?
If your stimulus check lasts longer than four hours , seek immediate medical attention.
Ask your congressman if you are irresponsible enough to want a stimulus check.
If you are responsible , stimulus checks may cause nausea and vomiting.
Ben,
I used to play the auction game in the city of angles, and i’ve been to perhaps a thousand of them, and the times I was most successful is when I had a lack of competition in terms of bidding, combined with decent items up for sale…
The least successful times was when a rival that knew what he or she was doing was pitted against me, and felt comfortable bidding up items to near what they were worth-working on small margins, because they possessed the same thing I did, Knowledge.
Years ago, I bought something @ auction for around $8k, and sold it to a friend in the business for around $130k.
He was blown away @ what I sold him, and asked where it came from?
I told him it came from an auction, and he correctly guessed which one, and told me he was going to go, but forgot about it…
If he had shown up at the auction, I doubt that I would have made $122k that day.
And at this point in time, isn’t there quite a bit of competition at the auctions? In my area I believe the prices are still pretty high. Experienced flippers can still make money assuming they have access to the cash, but I think it’s a bit of knife catching.
Everybody turned into an expert when eBay came along, and the auction game got a lot busier with rank amateurs learning the ropes, and occasionally i’d leave them just enough to do themselves in financially, when opportunity knocked…
I remember making some clown pay $3k more than something was worth, in an effort to discourage future visits, but to no avail. He kept coming.
Aside from oil, what imported item would you most miss if shipping were to slow to a crawl?
Ramen noodles?
Anchovies.
Curry leaf, coconut milk and Kaffir lime leaf. But then again in Alaska, almost everything is “imported”.
Kaffir lime leaves are grown in the US (Georgia, IIRC.)
Curry leaf is so simple to grow that it’s literally child’s play (even in an apartment — no direct sunlight is all.)
Coconut milk is a little trickier, I suppose.
Jack Daniels. If we stop importing from Tennessee I will cry like a little girl.
You’re their own personal “bailout”.
Maybe that would be a blessing in disguise as you could then start drinking proper kentucky bourbon.
Amen, amen.
I was in Baltimore a year or two ago and ordered a whiskey sour with makers.
I saw her poor it from the appropriate bottle. Not sure what I got. From my youthful memories, I think it may have been Jim Beam. I didn’t call her out on it, but it was shocking to my pallet for sure.
Maker’s Mark has been good to me for many years, indeed.
Have you ever tried Buffalo Trace? I’ve taken a shine to it when I want a little variety in my brown liquor …
Never heard of it, I’ll check it out next time I’m at the liqa sto. Thanks.
I’ve had Buffalo Trace. Not bad. I’d just as well Maker’s Mark and prefer Knob Creek.
Bulliet, similar to Buffalo Trace. First discovered it in Washington DC, now it’s available in CA in Safeway (!)
Jack doesn’t like me sneaking around with other Bourbons. But what he doesn’t know……
Well, technically Jack isn’t Bourbon. It’s made in Tennessee.
We could always import a few gold shills. I’m sure there are a few in every country.
P.T. Barnum would be proud of you.
My aims are higher.
Maple leafs?
I’m stocking up on good single malt scotch just in case of an emergency. Might be more valuable than gold some day.
I am waiting to see the impact of crashing GBP on the shelf. Patience.
Has nothing to do with GBP. They will charge what the market will bear. Production cost is a small fraction of market price.
Then I might as well go long.
Kallyfornians???
Yah, ve ship all zee girlie-men to Michigan, yes?
Your written Ahhhnold imitation never ceases to crack me up!!!
Good question.
My dedication to living simply means I don’t have any excess clothing. I have one pair of jeans I wear out every year, one suit, five pairs of “business casual” pants, etc. So I can’t live off the inventory. At American wages, clothes would be an ouch.
Wine. It makes no sense to me that wine shipped across the ocean from Italy should cost less than wine shipped across the country from California, not to mention the more limited good stuff out of Upstate NY — after all, water and glass are heavy. Can’t we build a pipeline?
Consumer electronics. What we have is aging, and they aren’t making it to last. I was hoping for a new LCD TV at half price this year. The last time I bought a CD player, the price was so low that I didn’t understand how they could move it from the factory to the store for that cost, let alone make it.
Bicycles. They last a long time, but if we are going to improve health and save gas, we’ll need more.
Fruit in winter. Mostly we eat oranges from California during the season, but with the water shortage there may not be any soon.
East of Ohio, the carbon footprint of wine is less from Europe than California. However, that would change if there was a pipeline. A delicious pipeline!
Hmm… I would miss buying clothes if sea shipping were to cease. I do a lot of off-trail slogging in the chaparral for work, and that chews up clothes pretty fast.
If truck shipping were reduced, I’d miss just about everything. Everything, in this case, being food, books, and tasty beverages. I subscribe to a CSA farm, but that’s only about 15% of my food.
I think the wackiest imported item i’ve seen would have to be ice cream imported from Lithuania or Latvia.
How crazy is that…
Baltic-Why-Index?
Beat this - Bing Cherries in Seattle, in December, imported from Chile. At around 3 bucks/lb, often work out cheaper than locally grown Cherries in season (summer).
Build your wine pipeline out of wood (oak?) and you can age and ship at the same time!
Can’t we build a (wine) pipeline?
You. Are. A. Genious.
Yes, with the less common `genious’ spelling too!
if they stop shipping our own money back, we are in deeper shit.
Dog food.
why nobody mentions our own money getting shipped back is most likely the elephant in the digital underground railroad.
clue,
How would the average joe overseas with a fistful of Dollars go about exchanging them for items of value, when it tanks and the banks overseas don’t want them?
Iceland is a good example of what happens when a currency goes south, but it isn’t as if the rest of world was holding Krona, as they are Yanqui Dollars…
schiff mentions it.
Coffee. I only buy fair-trade coffee, but it’s still imported.
Also, having to subsist on domestic chocolate would be kind of a drag.
Capitalism promoted coffee and sugar at the start of the industrial revolution - how else would people work 18 hour days in a windowless factory?
I usually have knee-jerk opposition to The Man, but I will gladly be brainwashed by a tasty cup of Joe the Coffee.
Hey, have you read ‘The Devils’ Cup’? It would seem that basically we owe the wonder of civilization to coffee. I made a point of drinking various Trader Joe’s blends throughout my reading of it, and now look at me: voila’–I’m civilized.
Domestic chocolate is made in Mexico.
video games.
Swiss chocolate. German chocolate. Belgian chocolate. Even, maybe, british chocolate.
Somewhere, I read that much of Cadbury’s chocolate was actually made in China. Good thing that Belgian chocolate is my preferred choice. Assuming that it actually is made there.
Books. Claret. Animal Feeds.
The Republicans want to make sure everyone knows who the real socialists are.
WSJ
* NOVEMBER 14, 2008
Chances Are Slim for Stimulus, Auto Aid Till ‘09
Stiff Republican Resistance Could Force Democrats to Wait for Obama and Their Party’s Enlarged Majority to Take Office
By GREG HITT
…
Mr. Dodd, meanwhile, wants to add foreclosure relief to an economic-stimulus package. He expressed frustration Thursday with efforts to help distressed homeowners by the private sector and the Bush administration, which was supposed to make foreclosure relief a top priority in the $700 billion rescue packaged enacted earlier this fall to stabilize financial markets.
“We want to see more progress,” Mr. Dodd said, adding he is prepared to legislate — “now, if possible” — to address the problem.
I heard a report on NPR this morning which led me to believe a serious misconception about housing demand is clouding the policy rolling out of Washington these days. Apparently many commentators from on high believe the only reason prices are falling is due to a large number of distress sales depressing prices of homes in the surrounding area — the proverbial “screwing up the comps” issue.
While distress sales may reveal a price trajectory which makes potential home buyers less eager to jump in than back when appreciation rates north of ten percent were common, I suspect that few Congressional staffers have looked closely at the change in demand when it is no longer possible to use liar loans, interest only loans, subprime loans, zero-to-negative down payment deals, payment-option arms and mortgages with payments at over 50 pct of household income to fund a home purchase.
A household with a given income (say $60,000 a year) which might have been able to “afford” a $600,000 home using some combination of the “financial innovations” listed above may only be able to muster a $300,000 home purchase on a traditional (aka financially prudent) 30-year-fixed loan. Multiply this return to lending sanity across the entire pool of potential buyers, and you have an implied 50 pct drop in market value, regardless of whether anyone is foreclosed.
I’ve been surprised at how difficult it is for people to accept that home prices are directly related to incomes. It seems like a very simple concept, but for some reason sanity and reasonable thinking are discarded when it comes to housing.
Either that, or people who discard sanity and reasonable thinking have loud mouths. People who make dumb decisions during a mania with no rational basis like to loudly trumpet their financial brilliance in order to get positive affirmations from like-minded souls. It is rather like religious adherents who get up in front of a congregation to testify about their faith in some outlandish belief system in order to bask in the emotional support of others with similarly outlandish beliefs.
Yes, groupthink can be a powerful force. When you try to reason with people who have bought into this mania you aren’t so much talking about economics, supply, demand etc. You are puncturing a deeply held belief.
It’s very challenging to challenge views that are accepted as being true, once those views are cemented into place.
I face the music virtually everyday i’m on here, from those so challenged.
“I face the music virtually everyday i’m on here, from those so challenged.”
I know the feeling. Some on this blog still doubt the incredible healing powers of Jack Daniels. Fools, I tell you.
“Lie there my laddie, rest easy, lie easy
Who’s your real father may never be known
It’s weeping and wailing and rocking the cradle
Attending a baby that’s none of your own.”
I used to belt out that song when I was a hippie chick. I sang it last night to fall asleep. So glad the news is still so raw.
I suspect that few Congressional staffers have looked closely at the change in demand when it is no longer possible to use liar loans, interest only loans, subprime loans, zero-to-negative down payment deals …
I suspect there are some Congressional staffers that do understand the larger implication that housing prices and incomes are (or should be) closely linked.
I also suspect it is highly impolitic to state such things, as that assertion implies A.) incomes must go up, which isn’t going to happen; or B.) housing prices will continue to descend no matter what Magic Financial Fairy Dust is sprinkled from on high.
NYCB
Me and Captain Jack go way back…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWbyKq7zo_U
‘It is rather like religious adherents who get up in front of a congregation to testify about their faith in some outlandish belief system in order to bask in the emotional support of others with similarly outlandish beliefs.’
Are you a Mormon, PB? Because I can see that you have definitely been exposed to ‘Fast and testimony meeting’.
ET
Exactly. Believe me, guys. There are more smart people in Washington than you think. Way more. They just don’t always say what they are thinking.
The “stop forclosures” to fix everything meme is easy to absorb. And, stopping forclosures would probably slow down the correction just a bit. It would also prevent an overcorrection at the end (except for the overcorrection that is going to happen because of the lingering recession). But to actually admit that the current correction and another 10, 15, 20% (or more in the sticky bubble locations like DC and surrounding areas), would have had to happen even if all the forclosed people were instantly turned into renters in the homes that were forclosed at the lowest PITI they had under their original loan terms? Not going to happen in a press release or on the record to a reporter. That is why we need to get information from other sources.
“Some on this blog still doubt the incredible
healingexacerbating powers of Jack Daniels. Fools, I tell you.”There, I fixed it for you.
‘Some on this blog still doubt the incredible healing powers of Jack Daniels.’
Not ME, baybee. I’m a true believer, say hallelujia and pass the bottle.
Except not right this minute. I kinda overhealed myself a bit last night.
It’s Friday, after all.
Nothing says halleluia and I love the Sweet Baby Jeebus™ like overhealing two days in a row.
Gonna head there myself.
‘Gonna head there myself.’
Beat you to it! (Hic)
Not a chance, kiddo! I’m three time zones ahead of you.
“Are you a Mormon, PB?”
No, but some close relatives of mine are. And lest the Mormons in the virtual room think I am singling them out, my first girlfriend was a Baptist, and they do the testimonial thingee as well.
“I’ve been surprised at how difficult it is for people to accept that home prices are directly related to incomes.”
Here, buy my 2007 Hummer…$35.00 down… 0% interest rate…$75.00 a month…480 months…what a deal!
i was told just yesterday how stupid i was. i told some folks that i would never buy a rental property that did not generate positive cash flow and i was rebuked and ridiculed.
i felt like i was in bizarro world.
still a long way to go.
That’s how we know we haven’t even come close to the end of the price declines. Even at this point in the cycle I still hear the same idiotic platitudes, “But, Real Estate always goes up in the long run” and “You know it’s going to come back”. When all of that finally gets washed out of people’s heads is when a market recovery can begin.
I was watching CSPAN last night. Dodd explicitly said that housing was THE cause of the financial crises.
I don’t recall exactly if he said “foreclosures” or “falling house prices”, but whatever it was its clear these ‘tards have no idea…
Actually, the people making $60,000 a year should only be buying houses up to $180,000, max, not $300,000. And that is assuming interesting things like “down payments” and “stable jobs” which don’t exist anymore. But hey, 75% deflation can’t be that bad!
Seriously, loan to income of 5 sounds seriously financially insane to me.
How many times can they add “foreclosure relief” to a bill? Dodd is such a dud. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. We need to stop voting for political families. Bush and Dodd prove me right. I will never vote for Chelsea.
Al Gore, anyone?
Yes, for the first maned mission to the Sun, to study Sun spots in hopes of saving our planet.
“wot happens if they went in winter, when the sun is cold?” - ali g
After Bush 2.0, I’m convinced we need a new constitutional amendment. No immediate relatives of a former president should be allowed to run themselves E.V.E.R!! (Children, spouses, parents, siblings) I suspect this is why Hillary ultimately lost. Bush 2.0 has left such a bad taste in the country’s mouth, the idea of Clinton 2.0 was unbearable.
I felt we all won on primary day. Somehow neither of the two major candidates were named “Bush” or “Clinton”. It was a fantastic change from the last 2 decades.
Right. What we’ve done so far — redistribute income up — isn’t socialism, so they have yet to depart from their principles.
Extending uemployment insurance — using dedicated federal unemployment tax revenues that have been building up in a fund since the last time they did it, rather than using that money for tax cuts or interest on debts — THAT’s socialism. Time for the losers to starve so they can’t reproduce, say those who do not believe in Darwin.
Well, those of us who know more about public finance than the private kind certainly saw this coming — cities asking for a bailout.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/14/us/14philly.html?_r=1&ref=us&oref=slogin
Wrap your heads around this one:
“The credit crisis has ‘all but eliminated’ the ability of cities to borrow in the private capital markets to meet their pension obligations, the letter says.”
So you provided public services in the past at an extravagant cost that you deferred to the future by promising rich pensions and assuming a high rate of return. Promises made by politicians backed by public employee unions and residents who wanted low taxes until they could move out or die off. And now that the future has arrived, they want to defer the cost of the past to another future by borrowing?
How about Chapter 9 — all across the country? I certainly want it for New York City, New York State, and the MTA. Those pensions the Democrats always want to enrice are free of state and local income taxes here, as is the interest on all the debts Republicans like Pataki and Giuliani ran up. That money goes to privileged people who don’t pay. If we are going to have “shared sacrifce,” make them first in line!
A 1-month drop of 2.8 pct occurs at an annualized rate of 29 pct.
Financial Times
Bleak retail data set to push Wall St lower
By Alistair Gray in New York
Published: November 14 2008 13:56 | Last updated: November 14 2008 13:56
Wall Street stocks were on Friday set to give back some of the previous session’s strong gains after the latest bleak round of economic data showed retail sales slumped last month by the most since records began.
The worse-than-expected 2.8 per cent decline, the fourth consecutive monthly drop, was the latest sign of a collapse in consumer confidence during the financial crisis and pushed stock futures further into negative territory.
Alan Ruskin of RBS Global Banking & Markets said the figures were ”even more dire than expected. Lets not dance about this, the data is awful.”
“Bleak retail data set to push Wall St lower”
LOL!
We need to always remember, these numbers, they’re already out of date. The experts are behind the curve as reality plays out on main street.
The oh sh*t moment commeth.
A coworker is buying a $450,000, 800-sqft, 1bd/1br condo in Austin, TX.
He says he got a ‘good deal’, and he wants to buy before prices start going up again.
The guy makes about 75k, and I have no clue how he is going to be able to afford a condo that is over 6x his income.
That is insane!!!
This is sooooooooo 2005.
Here, have some popcorn or a bourbon.
He’ll be toasted in a year or so. Then you can rub it in.
Well, it seems Austin is living in 2005
Downtown condos are ‘in’ and SO EXPENSIVE
Typical 2-Bedroom Unit
Square Feet: 1500
Price: $562,500
Monthly Payments:
Mortgage: $2,995
Condo Fees: $510
Taxes: $1,184
Total: $4,689 / Month
Typical 3-Bedroom Unit
Square Feet: 2,200
Price: $825,000
Monthly Payments:
Mortgage: $4,392
Condo Fees: $748
Taxes: $1,736
Total: $6,876 / Month
Sorry, I forgot the link
http://www.austintowers.net/downtown_condo/faq.html
Austonian
200 Congress Ave
Completion in 2010
Overview
- 56 Floors / 683 Feet
- 188 Units
- Units from 1,221 - 8,379 SF
- Unit Types: -
Pricing
- Least Expensive Unit: $559,000 ($457/SF)
- Most Expensive Unit: $8,000,000+
Taxes: $1,184
Taxes: $1,736
I don’t know what the rental market in Austin is now a days, but it wasn’t too long ago you could rent a nice place for what these people will be paying in taxes alone.
500/sq/ft in AUSTIN? Are you kidding me?
OMIGOD THAT’S INSANE.
the inverted hammer of lucifer followed by the falling sword of Damocles is in that woulde-be falling knife catchers future.
Borrow NYCityBoy’s brick and hit him. When he comes to, ask him if he still plans on buying. If the answer is yes, hit him again. Repeat until the answer is no.
Al, I notice that you have super good ideas.
Olympia
link for you: http://www.Manuandyou.com
Not tiaras, but glittery stuff to wear on the head. I thought of you when I saw it in the free paper the Wash Post gives away near the metro stations.
Go to “accessories” for the headbands.
Very sparkly.
Oooooh…pretty! Thanks, polly!
When I was a high school teacher, I had one student consistently give me sage advice in any situation:
“Miss, punch him in the throat!”
Perhaps this advice would work in this situation as well?
…or he doesn’t come to..
Either way, it’s all good.
Is your friend’s unit in the Austonian or one of the others? Does he live in Austin?
I recently drove into town on I-35 from the north at night for the first time in a long time, getting a nice downtown view. I was shocked to see how few lights were on in the 360 building.
360 was completed and ready for move in months ago. It was the poster child for downtown condos because the pre-sales sold out so quickly. Many units were bought by out of town buyers.
I heard something on local public radio station a few days ago about the “credit crunch” having caused financing to fall through on condo units, mentioning the 360.
Two downtown towers have enormous leasing signs. Several condo towers are going up including the Austonian, which will be the tallest building in town.
Every time I look at 360 at night, it is mostly dark.
Scariest graph ever?
Financial Times
The great credit bubble inflates
Published: November 13 2008 20:53 | Last updated: November 13 2008 20:53
Was scary. Not so scary now (look at the rightmost bars.)
The time to be scared was in 2005. Not now.
“The time to be scared was in 2005. Not now.”
My reference goes back to when Cheney-Shrub…were first elected.
HWY50 — You and my dad. First thing he said back in 2000 was that W scared him. And both my parents were frightened by Sarah Barracuda.
HWY -
The graph clearly starts to accelerate in ‘98, but don’t let that fact get in the way of another one of your useless political rants.
Is each bar a running total, or does each bar represent the amount of new securitization for each quarter.
I interpreted each bar to represent the amount of new securitization. If it were a running total, then it would not dwindle to near zero in the most recent quarter.
Clarification: On closer inspection, I believe each figure is an annual total (which explains why none is shown yet for 2008).
So for example, non-agency mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities issued in recent years were as follows ($ bns):
Year / Non-agency MBS / ABS
1996 51.9 168.4
1997 69.4 223.1
1998 191.9 286.6
1999 140.5 287.1
2000 102.1 337.0
2001 216.5 383.3
2002 263.9 469.2
2003 345.3 600.2
2004 403.8 869.8
2005 645.7 1,172.1
2006 773.1 1,253.1
2007 668.6 901.7
2008* 35 170
*Estimated projection
Total issuance, 1996-2007
Non-agency MBS = $3,872.7 bn
ABS = $6,951.6 bn
Combined total = $10,824.3
Not sure how much more the GSEs added to this total, but I am guessing they added quite a bit…
P.S. I note that 2008 issuance looks much like 1996 issuance…
I assumed that to be the case also, but wanted to be sure.
P.P.S. It looks like the 1996-2008 total for both types of U.S. private securitization is likely to clear a cool $11t.
Slap an SPX chart over it and consider the drought in income growth during the last 6 years; thereafter, add rising unemployment and broken HOE-ATMs to the picture.
Soros was just quoted on the radio saying the amount of money managed by hedge funds was likely to fall by 50-75 pct over the next few years. This chart makes me wonder if he is being overly optimistic?
enters my top three with a bullet, right beside the Ivy Zelman (sp?) Credit-Suisse (sp?) resets chart, and the venerable Case-Shiller home price indices graph (especially the one w/extrapolated trends).
Yesterday’s run-up was supposed to be short-covering in advance of the G-20 meeting. However, a bunch of stuffed shirts at a round table with their national flags at their backs aren’t going to pull a rabbit out of the hat at this meeting–no magic $$ cure coming out of that conference.
What will be interesting is if some of the other countries continue to take the lead in better ideas for stabilization than the US.
And have you seen promising ideas from any of our fellows? Seems like the loudest voices for reform are the ones with the biggest hangovers.
As long as we don’t let the Europeans take the lead, I’ll be happy. The EU is NOT the land of solutions, that’s for sure.
I wonder how many human beans are represented by the G20 countries?
We account for 305 Million of em’, which is probably 10% of total number, i’d guess?
The world wants financial change, and we are outnumbered by our peers by a wide margin, and everybody knows they can kick ’ssshrubery around, as he’s at his most vulnerable…
I don’t think Bush feels as stupid or as vulnerable as you imagine. By “reform” I guess many mean greater control of others, not of themselves. Sarkozy would be in that group IMO. Fat chance of the US letting Europeans control our financial system, under any president, no matter how much we’ve screwed it up, ever. It’s a nonstarter.
“Maneuvering with an army is advantageous; with an undisciplined multitude, most dangerous.”
Sun Tzu
BULLETIN
U.S. STOCKS OPEN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER; THURSDAY-AFTERNOON RALLY DERAILS
White House takes aim at derivative market
By Greg Robb
Last update: 9:33 a.m. EST Nov. 14, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Bush administration took action Friday to strengthen government oversight of derivatives trading and close the loopholes that have allowed these complex products to avoid scrutiny. In a release, the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets said their near-term top priority was to oversee the successful implementation of central counterparty services for credit default swaps.
Don’t you just love the “barn door” engineered game of the govt. We ignored the International Derivative Swaps Association, and now we are going to clean up our OTC orgy. Gotta love politicians and WS.
OTOH, the spokesperson for the IDSA was concerned about too much regulation from this crisis.
In the end, welcome to “The Dept. Of Finger Pointing”.
75 acres for sale, in California, includes Joshua trees.
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&Item=140275423482&Category=15841&_trksid=p3907.m31
20 and a house in the big ‘ol town of Mayflower, Arkansas
littlerock dot craigslist dot org/reb/915081361.html
I can’t express how much crack these fools must be smoking…
Yay, free J-tree with purchase! That’ll save you a bundle right there.
I had the pleasure of driving through a California City sandstorm last weekend. Lovely place in the rear view mirror.
OOOOHH I just must have it. 75 acres of waterless, nonproductive desert for a mere quarter of a million dollars. Complete with property taxes so that I can feel I am doing my part as a citizen!
Let me whip out my MasterCard.
I just received the latest assessment on my place, a 41% increase; next assessment in four years. This is Grant county in Washington state. When I visited the assessor’s office there were several other shell-shocked folks standing there, notices in hand. When I mentioned that my place, a MAR-2003 purchase, will likely slip below the sales price within four years you could just see the color drain from their faces, but the auditor behind the counter was clearly in agreement with me. Very few folks are prepared for what’s coming.
Tax Riots are a riot…
After a while people realize the game is rigged and they used to throw elaborate Tea Parties, back when this country had a backbone.
This guys thinks they are on the way…
Food Riots, Tax Rebellions By 2012…Trend forecaster, renowned for being accurate in the past, says
The man who predicted the 1987 stock market crash and the fall of the Soviet Union is now forecasting revolution in America, food riots and tax rebellions - all within four years, while cautioning that putting food on the table will be a more pressing concern than buying Christmas gifts by 2012.
Gerald Celente, the CEO of Trends Research Institute, is renowned for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events, which will send a chill down your spine considering what he told Fox News this week.
Celente says that by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts.
“We’re going to see the end of the retail Christmas….we’re going to see a fundamental shift take place….putting food on the table is going to be more important that putting gifts under the Christmas tree,” said Celente, adding that the situation would be “worse than the great depression”.
“America’s going to go through a transition the likes of which no one is prepared for,” said Celente, noting that people’s refusal to acknowledge that America was even in a recession highlights how big a problem denial is in being ready for the true scale of the crisis.
I don’t think we will ever see the day that people turn off their tvs and video games and march in the street. Especially ’cause parking at riots is always such a pain.
But I’ll be sure and watch on TeeVee.
‘I don’t think we will ever see the day that people turn off their tvs and video games and march in the street.’
Come to Olympia, WA, and we’ll change your mind. Heck, marching with signs and chanting and rioting and such are hobbies here, much like knitting and stamp-collecting are elsewhere.
I bet I could walk out the door, grab a sign up, scribble a new message over the old message, start marching down the sidewalk and wheee, there you go!
Half the town in flames by lunch!
Yes, we love marching, chanting, and rioting here. It’s like parades to us, except no tiaras. Oh, wait, unless I’m there, and got mine out of my desk drawer before I ran down to join, then we have tiaras.
Yes, we have no tiaras?!?
‘Yes, we have no tiaras?!?’
You have no tiara?! My god, man!
Quick, gimme your address and I’ll send you one! You can keep it next to your festive bonking Santa hat.
Wow Oly,
Sounds like SF. Get the protests and then get Critical Mass on the last Friday of a month and San Francisco becomes such a fun city
‘“America’s going to go through a transition the likes of which no one is prepared for,” said Celente, noting that people’s refusal to acknowledge that America was even in a recession highlights how big a problem denial is in being ready for the true scale of the crisis.’
This was my favorite part. That’s okay. They’ll just tell everyone to get some duct-tape and visqueen and everything will be fine.
RMS, I’m in Thurston county, WA. Today I was gonna get working on my letter to the auditors office appealing my assessment. It’s down from last year, but not NEARLY enough, in my view. I appealed then, too.
This letter will be more sedate than last years. No channeling of angry Sanskrit priestesses, for example, and not a single piece of gravel taped to it, and no angry scribbles.
That’s because I’m a bit hungover and therefore temporarily subdued and mild.
You too, huh?
I channeled my inner NYCityBoy™ last night, and I didn’t feel too good this morning.
Pobrecito! If I was there I’d make you some nourishing chicken soup with vivifying home-made stock. Then I’d probably drink it all myself and collapse on the couch and demand to see you model the tiara.
Hahahaha! What an image.
Laughing always makes my hangovers diminish. So I guess it’s a good thing there’s so much amusement to be found in the world, especially on this blog. Why, you know, it’s like medicine!
Thanks, Ben!
I’ve already channeled Hanuman the Mighty Magic Monkey™ to wreak havoc on you.
Or it just might be the hangover. It’s hard to say which.
Maker’s Manhattan last night for me. And then another. Oh, and another….tonight’s forecast calls for more of the same.
You show style, sir, and gusto. I approve of that. Now all you need is a tiara.
Tiara, eh? A guy could get beat up for that. Meh. What the heck, I’m usually willing to take one for the team. But it definitely depends on the definition of “take one.”
Also, I need to revise tonight’s forecast. The actual weather right now is mandating a 10-mile hike tomorrow, which means an early morning. So, that means the Maker’s Manhattan Front will probably blow into town a little earlier today. It IS Friday, afterall.
‘What the heck, I’m usually willing to take one for the team. But it definitely depends on the definition of “take one.”
Hahahahaha! Funniness!
‘It IS Friday, afterall.’
It surely is! And it’s after lunch, too. Why, a Maker’s Manhattan is practically mandated.
ROTFLMAO
I think this blog is definitely `long’ the sauce, and `short’ housing.
There’s our long-short hedge fund right there!
Con un cereza, por supuesto! (good use of pobrecito, above)
una, UNA. Damn indefinite article matching.
Maraschino cherry? or metaphorical cherry?
If I say “metaphorical” does that make me a bad man?
No, just an interesting one. Particularly with a tiara and a Maker’s Manhattan!
‘No, just an interesting one. Particularly with a tiara and a Maker’s Manhattan!’
I know I’m gettin’ excited! (Hic)
I work for a County in Florida. Property taxes are an estimate as of Jan 1 of any given year. Property values here have declined a minimum of 30% in the last year. Now that only effects those homes that have a Market value that is at least 30% greater than the taxable value. The taxable value is generally much less because they can only be adjusted upwards at 3%/year because of our Save Our Homes amendment.
It will really effect homes that were purchased during the bubble, say 2003 - 2007. Let’s say that the average drop for homes over that period is 15%. And those homes represent 30% of the stock. So that would represent a 4.5% decrease property tax collections.
Doesn’t sound like a lot, but that would run about $12 million smackaroos. At $40K per employee, that would run out to about 300 employees. That’s on top of 200 positions and $32 million that have been cut in the last 2 years. There have been lots of cuts in capital & operating expenditures in the last 2 years, $0 pay raises.
And those who remain won’t complain cause its even more bloody in the private sector.
Thanks for the update, Jon.
Same thing going on here in Cali, yet they are only beginning to talk about it.
Going to see lots of layoffs, hiring freezes and changes in wages & benefits.
for you kids playing at home.
FXP put in a 60.40 close yesterday, .70 cents off the 52 week low.
oops a buck thirty, my mad skills are just waking up.
Yep, I’ll admit I bought at 62.50. I am out at either 50 or 90, time will tell, just have to survive any BS G20 hype this weekend as it will be very short lived.
FDIC has issued a proposal to promote affordable loan modifications. The plan includes paying servicers to cover expenses of loans modified and sharing losses in the event a modified loan falls back into default. FDIC estimates the program can be applied to some 1.4 million non-GSE mortgage loans.
Yahoo
All I can say is wow!
takingbets …..Does this mean that the government (taxpayers)are going to insure the loan in the event it defaults ,even if the Lenders do the re-write ,sure sounds like it . I guess I better start reading up on this loan program . Doesn’t seem like the 300 billion dollar program
that came out in October of 2008 is very successful so far . I say take from that money if you need more programs Mr. Government .
Palmster, did you see one of the Apollo Beach rapists is 13!
AP
FDIC says plan could help 1.5 million keep homes
Friday November 14, 9:48 am ET
By Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer
FDIC publishes $24 billion plan to avert 1.5 million foreclosures by end of 2009
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. says a new plan could help 1.5 million American households avoid foreclosure.
The agency released details Friday of a revised plan to have the government spend $24.4 billion to guarantee 2.2 million modified loans through the end of next year.
The FDIC says that the government’s backing will make the lending industry more willing to modify loans because taxpayers will absorb half of the losses if the borrower defaults again.
Even if a third of those borrowers default again, 1.5 million homes will still be saved.
“taxpayers will absorb half of the losses if the borrower defaults again.”
I would like to modify that last sentence to say:
“taxpayers will absorb half of the losses “WHEN” the borrower defaults again.”
This will save the banks not the homeowners.
The goal is to save the banks, repeat, the goal is to save the banks.
Those pawners would be best served by walking, and re-entering the market at a saner date.
When will the Fed get the message out that it is in the interest of many underwater households to just drop off the key and walk away?
They won’t. They’ll learn the hard way.
And that’s why we’ll get deflation and GD2.
Yep,its real prudent to make loans that will default again .Yep,that’s real good loan making . A article was posted recently in which they already have knowledge that 40% of the loans that are re-written
have defaulted again already . I’m sorry but there is something terrible wrong with a stat like that . In fact ,it’s a stat that says regular foreclosures make more sense ,and we are wasting money by getting involved as taxpayers .Let the Loan Companies do their own thing with whats in their best interest and lets bail from this waste of money .
The bail-out system is being gamed ……no question .Moral hazard is alive and kicking also .
I figured you guys could help me out here. You seem to know a lot about housing and the bubble. Perhaps someone could help me out here. This is why I put it in the bits and buckets.
I was having my bathroom remodeled in PA. I looked on the website for my city and it said nothing about a bathroom needing a permit. My contractor said that I should not need one since I am not changing the structure but only pulling out a tub and putting a new one in and also a new sink. Well after 2 days of work, my nice little neighbor across the street called the inspector who came down and immediately accused me of illegal construction. He was very rude from the get go. I was shocked so I asked what I needed to do? He said I needed to have the contractor stop and he could fine me $2000 a day and hold the permit for 30 days which would cost me $60,000. I said in a shock, you mean a fine? And he said, “oh so you want to be fines do you!” and he said something on his nextel. I said no, that’s not what I meant! I just want to get this resolved! Why are you being such a dick? I asked. He said, oh, are you threatening me, I will call 911 if I have to. Then he proceeded to scream at the top of his lungs that my neighbors must hate me! He screamed this. Then he screamed, you don’t know the law do you! (which I thought I did according to the website). At that moment, my guy came out and he seemed to calm down. Was he treating me different because I was female? I asked him where I needed to go to get the permit, and all he would say was, I dunno, I dunno. Basically playing stupid. My guy then talked to him. He seemed to calm down. At that point he refused to talk to me. I asked if I could just get a permit. He said, “I will give a permit to you but not to her!” referring to my contractor. So he went down and filed the permit. It has been 2 days and when I call down there, the lady says it is still in the bin and they just haven’t gotten around to it. My bathroom is half apart and I have kids! We haven’t bathed in 4 days but I am afraid to do anything because these guys could make it worse for me I feel. I have drywall and materials in my living room. It would be done by now if it wasn’t for this! What can I do???
I heard these people can make your lives a living hell. I would like to not take it but fight back against unprofessional behavior and retaliation. I just want the permit so I can get on with it and get my bathroom finished. My house is almost inhabitable which is what the inspectors office seems to be doing to me. I thought they were there to protect us as public officials? I am afraid of his threats to fine me. Really afraid to call. In fact, I just called and the lady at the permit office told me she will call me when the permit is approved.
(STUCK) I feel people should not be punished for trying to improve their bathroom. (The old one had all the shingles falling down and water was washing behind the tub and if I had waited, I would have rotted my joints). What do you do if you call an emergency plumber service with water gushing everywhere? Wait to do work until you can pull a permit?
Good lord! Sorry to hear all of that, permit requirements are different State to State and County to County. So your area appears to require a permit, for this type or work which is nuts IMHO. Your contractor should have known this assuming he is licensed.There is bound to be a way to continue work if/since this is your only bath room. I’d get my contractors ass in gear, or get someone else.
P.S. Great neighbor!
The international series of building codes (the most widely used) typically require a permit for anything that might be considered plumbing-related. Counter-tops, cabinets, carpeting, and other “finishing work” typically do not need a permit. I don’t think it is unusual to require a permit for your bathroom remodel. However, any good contractor will no the permitting requirements and shouldn’t try to skirt them.
None of this is an excuse for the town inspector to treat you like he did. If your contractor is going to go ahead and pull a permit, there is no way they’ll fine you. Those provisions are typically used for much more serious matters.
uh yeah. above when I said “no” I obviously meant “know”
Does your county have an emergency services department? People you would call if you were about to be homeless? I would call them and be sure to explain very, very carefully that you need a place for your kids to take a bath (make sure they understand that you have a functioning toilet, heat, electricity, food, etc. or child welfare might show up). I bet if emergency services calls up the permitting board and screams at them that they have people in trouble and they better get that *&)#@ permit taken care of so they can concentrate on people with real problems you might get something done.
This approach has some risks (see reference to child welfare above), so don’t try it if you aren’t feeling centered and able to explain yourself well.
Please note that the inspector may have exploded at you because he and half his department are expecting to be laid off in the next few months. Building inspectors are not needed when building is in a depression and local governments are looking for places to cut expenses. It does not excuse his behavior, but it does explain it a little.
http://www.oig.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt?
Today, right this very minute:
Document date, times, place, and names of all parties involved.
Draft a letter of complaint and have a trusted one review/critique.
Send the darn thing!
I’ve used the office, and they are efficient and fair.
Best,
Leigh
P.S. Late post, hope this helps.
Senate will take up $25 billion auto bill Monday
WASHINGTON – A bill to rescue the troubled auto industry with $25 billion in emergency loans inched forward Friday when Majority Leader Harry Reid said the Senate will begin debate Monday and hold a test vote two days later. Supporters scrambled for votes to break an expected filibuster.
They expect to need 12 to 15 GOP votes to attach the measure to a $6 billion bill the House passed in October that would extend jobless benefits. So far, however, they had only one firm commitment, from Sen. George Voinovich of Ohio, a state with several auto plants and manufacturers of auto supplies.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081114/ap_on_go_co/auto_bailout
Sun to lay off 15% of its workforce
By Tim Conneally, BetaNews
November 14, 2008, 9:31 AM
Today, Sun Microsystems announced a restructuring plan that involves reducing its global workforce by 5,000-6,000 employees, or 15%-18% of its total staff. Under this plan, the MySQL division may be more protected.
When Sun reported its first quarter 2009 earnings, it said diminished hardware sales to the financial sector had an unmistakable effect on the company’s North American and European revenue. It posted a loss of $1.67 billion and did not even announce its guidance for the next quarter.
Citi firing 60,000.
That should spread a lot of warmth and cheer over the Manhattan market.
Nominally and %-wise that’s a lot, but I didn’t realize that:
“As of the end of the third quarter, Citigroup employed approximately 352,000 workers.”
I had no idea they were that bloated.
All the tellers all over the planet are a chunk right there.
It’s a huge bloated behemoth.
Ernest T. Borgnine
Is kashkari a chump?
21 chump street.
Body slam!
Loved that one. It’s all over youtube.
One piece of bad news came from Abercrombie and Fitch, whose third quarter profits fell by 46% when some of the brighter shoppers realized that the $60 shirts marked “Made in Sri Lanka,” was same label that was on the 2-for-$5.00 Target shirts. Macy’s is facing the same dilemma.
mikefolkerth dot com
I notice that my banana republic clothes are mostly “made in china” and my target clothes are mostly “made in china” or somewhere similar. this doesn’t change the fact, however, that my target clothes fall apart much sooner than my banana republic clothes. so there appears to be a pretty substantial difference in quality…at least that is my experience.
That’s one thing I can’t rectify. If those shirts are now being made in Sri Lanka or Bangladesh instead of South Carolina why am I paying $60 for them? Ba$tard$ haven’t made the shirts (or their profits) cheaper, just their labor.
(not that I actually shop at that femme-boy place, but still!)
Your comment brings to light the lie which was that corporations use cheap labor in order to produce inexpensive goods for consumers. The savings on labor wasn’t passed on, but rather went straight into the execs pockets. The level of corporate greed is despicable.
Bingo!!!
Anyone who thought “globalization” was going to improve the lives of Americans was taken for a ride.
It was a means to increase profit margins for the corporations, and that was all!!
We used credit to make up the difference between still-high prices and falling wages.
Why should Americans live any better than Sri Lankans? I’m sure they’re nice people too.
Dirt floors and rice for everyone I say.
(not that I actually shop at that femme-boy place, but still!)
Course not! Those shirts wouldn’t go with your tiara.
Years ago, when I actually bothered following retail trends, there was a very simple cycle.
First, the gay men would set up a trend. Then the straight women would head for that fashion. Then the straight men would head for that trend. Then the trend was over.
You could make killer money on retail stocks if you understood the problem in relation to a macro environment and timed it right (both up and down.)
‘First, the gay men would set up a trend.’
Well, gay men have great taste. I have some very nice shirts handed over to me by a homosexual pal who got tired of them after wearing them about 3 whole times, if that. Look great on me. Men’s clothes are often of much better quality than women’s clothes, too, for some reason.
Quality of the fabric is the difference. You can’t tell from the label where the fabric was made, or to what specs.
The “Made in China/Vietnam/Sri Lanka” label only tells you where the final assembly operation was done, and doesn’t tell you where the original fabric came from. It’s a two-step operation and the “Made In…” label doesn’t convey that piece of information very well.
“It’s a two-step operation and the “Made In…” label doesn’t convey that piece of information very well.”
You can bet your azz that none of it is “Made in USA”, however.
Wow, I guess there was a lot of areas were the Corporate world was selling toxic cheap crap and making out like it was good stuff, including MBS’s. This last 10-12 years has been the Rein of the Corporations and Wall Street and to the degree that power is
still influencing ,is to the degree that truth will be exposed ,as well as proper solutions . Main Street just suspects that big money
business is behind every evil that is happening .
I have always been in disagreement to the approach of solving problems before you in fact investigate why it happened and find the evil doers and see if they have liability . Bailing out anything without bringing it to Justice first is putting the cart before the horse .Very interesting the order by which the current Powers are doing things .
most of my banana republic clothes say, “woven in italy” and also “made in china/bangladesh”. So maybe that is what you mean. American Apparel has some decent american-made stuff, and I’m curious to try the pants by the company called Bonobo (http://www.bonobos.com/).
Looks like the scam market is trying to head into some positive territory again, despite hideous news.
Yep - either people are afraid of what the G20 nitwit stimulus may look like over the weekend, or we may have a nice late day fizzle
the race to the egress is on.
I would not call it so much fizzle as outright panic.
the panic aint fizzle’in.
Looks like the late day fizzle is on, big time. I sold 1/2 my FXP for 10% profit in a day and will buy it back early next week. I am too afraid of what the G20 idiots will dream up this weekend and may be able to buy it back cheaper on Monday.
I think we’re heading into a “reload your shorts” environment.
Combo of illiquidity, no real news, and general Thanksgiving-related euphoria.
Agreed, I think we will see real ugliness after this fake bottom. In the meantime, any rallies are day trading dreams.
Tell me about it!
posted this earlier but got filtered or something - still learning the ropes…
Yesterday the House of Reps had George Soros and four other hedge fund managers give sworn testimony (all Americans who made more than a billion dollars last year: most placing the same kinds of bets suggested here, including ‘John Paulson’ who if you recall made a Wall Street (possibly all-time U.S.) record $3.7 billion.) The transcript is available to the “Committee Holds Hearing on Hedge Funds and the Financial Market”: google what’s in the quotes (maybe my link to it caused the post to vanish).
I was posting last night in yesterdays Bits Bucket while watching it: I even had the privilege of being taken out to the woodshed by TheHousingWizard (it was an honor, Wizard: thanks for helping break in the new guy! I sent a follow-up post but that disappeared too, and that one didnt’ contain any links. I probably need to tone down the swearing…)
It seems that $250,000 boat slips on Lake Union in Seattle are still an easy sell. Who are these people who can easily afford such things? I don’t get it. Apparently there are just loads of wealthy people loaded with cash.
They’re not making any more boat slips. Or was it water that they’re not making more of? Either way, get in NOW before you’re priced out for….the time being.
Boat slip, or 3 guys to drive my yacht around burning gas all the time…. gee, a toss up
*S*
_________
WASHINGTON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Friday recapitalizing banks is the most effective use of a $700 billion financial bailout war chest, but acknowledged the U.S. reputation is tarnished as a result of the financial crisis that has spread around the world.
“We have in many ways humiliated ourselves as a nation with some of the problems that have taken place here,” Paulson said in an interview with CNBC television. (Reporting by Glenn Somerville, Alister Bull and Mark Felsenthal, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
Memo to Darkmouth Hank:
What’s this “We” stuff?
You were earning the big bickies because it was alleged you knew what you doing, but now you try and include us in your mea culpable?
The Axis of See No Evil (until it’s too late)
Has let down this country repeatedly…
Why must we suffer fools like ’ssshrubery, Paulson & Bernanke?
Wow, wow,wow.
I just got off the phone with customer disservice at tracfone. I believe there call center is in Belize.
1 hour 20 minutes, and my problem didn’t get resolved. I finally had to start speaking in spanish to the guy after an hour, which helped tremendously.
As long as that call took due to the ultra long distance, poor line quality and language barrier, how much do you think they are paying that guy to make it cost effective?
I’d estimate that same call to a human in AZ or UT would have taken 10 min. tops.
OK, dude, call me here in Utah next time.
BTW, how’s the squattin’ goin’? Need any cots or stuff from my defunct Squatter’s B&B?? Should I send you some Squatter’s Beer?
Squatting goes well, thank you so much for asking. 75 degrees in sunny Palmdale as I type this. How’s life where they have winter?
Two weeks in is all, but there is no NOD yet, I believe this is the first month the LL didn’t pay. It’s amazing what paying no rent does for a person’s cash flow. Maybe when the evil bank throws us out into the cold dark stormy night we could move back in with mom! (just kidding mom)
I saw a few years back a chart by a legal eagle in San Berdu that showed how a tenant could stave off foreclosure by 12 months or more by playing the system. If I thought I could get Mrs. dude to play along I think that would be the route I’d be taking. After all the moo-la I’ve made shorting banks the last while it would be like a cherry on top to stick it to them yet again.
I appreciate the offer of squatter’s beer, I think my bishop would object, but feel free to drink one down on my behalf.
The whole outsourcing support thing drives me crazy.
The absolute best savings you get is maybe 25% savings because of the inherit inefficiencies you mention. (Also, most execs don’t seem to realize that there’s a hugh motivation difference depending on the culture they pick.)
Why not just ask your stateside employees to take a 25% haircut on wages? Given the choice between no job and 75% of salary, it would be a no brainer. But no, somehow it’s easier just to fire everyone and send complex support problems to people whose very 2nd language is English.
Dell is probably the worst offender and I tell everyone I know not to bother with extended support plans. Your local office supply store probably has a better computer support unit.
Add Adobe to the list.
Beware the ides of November…
You’ve been bewaring for a very long time.
Beware the ideas of November.
Beware the bogosity of glib comments without content.
California Climate Risk and Response
By David Roland-Holst and Fredrich Kahrl, UC Berkeley
November 2008
The report finds that the state has $4 trillion in real estate assets, of which $2.5 trillion are at risk from extreme weather events, sea level rise, and wildfires, with a projected annual price tag of $300 million to $3.9 billion over this century, depending on how warm the world gets. If no action is taken in the face of rising temperatures, six additional sectors, including water, energy, transportation, tourism and recreation, agriculture, and public health, would together incur tens of billions per year in direct costs, even higher indirect costs, and expose trillions of dollars of assets to collateral risk.
http://www.next10.org/research/research_ccrr.html
OK, this has really hit a nerve, gone too far, out of control…if anyone needs a bailout, it’s these guys…I’m bummed. I wondered where my cookies had gone to (my one and only vice).
“For more than 90 years, kids in California enjoyed creating parades of Circus Animal Cookies baked by Mother’s Cookies, an iconic grocery-store snack brand headquartered in Oakland. But this generation will be the last to munch on the bright-pink frosted animals: Mother’s Cookies crumbled on Oct. 6, when the owners abruptly shut down and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.”
from money dot csn dot com
This was the first BK that really bummed me out, too.
Sure do love those frosted animal cookies!
Posted earlier, will try again cause this is IMPORTANT!!!
OK, this has really hit a nerve, gone too far, out of control…if anyone needs a bailout, it’s these guys…I’m bummed. I wondered where my cookies had gone (my one and only vice).
“For more than 90 years, kids in California enjoyed creating parades of Circus Animal Cookies baked by Mother’s Cookies, an iconic grocery-store snack brand headquartered in Oakland. But this generation will be the last to munch on the bright-pink frosted animals: Mother’s Cookies crumbled on Oct. 6, when the owners abruptly shut down and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.”
Financial Times
Freddie Mac seeks $13.8bn lifeline
By Francesco Guerrera in New York
Published: November 14 2008 21:23 | Last updated: November 14 2008 21:23
Freddie Mac, the mortgage financier that was nationalised two months ago, has asked the US government for a $13.8bn lifeline after suffering a record $25.3bn quarterly loss on large credit-related writedowns.
Freddie’s decision to tap the $200bn facility pledged by the Treasury when it seized the company and its peer, Fannie Mae, will add to the government’s bill for rescuing the battered financial sector.
The deepening problems at Fannie and Freddie will raise the political temperature over the government’s rising financial commitments to companies that were caught out by the collapse in US house prices.
Fannie reported a $29bn quarterly loss this week, asked for financial help from the government and said it might need more than the $100bn earmarked for each of the two companies in order to stay in business.
Fannie and Freddie are cornerstones of the US housing market because they own or guarantee about 40 per cent of the $12,000bn in outstanding residential mortgages.
Freddie said that the government capital injection was needed because its net worth – the difference between its assets and liabilities – had fallen below zero in the third quarter. The company said that shareholders’ equity was a negative $13.8bn after $29.4bn in writedowns and credit losses during the period.
If I read this article correctly, then current and future generations of U.S. creditors are in the process of getting stuck with at least $113 bn additional in GSE capital injections on top of the extant bailout tab. Do these capital injections purchase ownership shares? I.e., is the $113 bn gone straight down the tube, or is it somehow recoverable?
At any rate, it sounds like Uncle Sam is going to have to double down in one form or another to keep the GSEs afloat.
/Yawn. Under a Hundred. Billion. What is this? Teen Advice for Future Billionaires?
A Tril here, A Tril there.
Freddie. Frannie. Or Whatever. And Pedro.
You still can’t count higher than me! But not for lack of trying.
Cheech and Chong on Bloomgerg! I shall CEASE SEIZING FIRE from ever posting here again if no-one believes me and posts and all sort of any and all sort of post!
Haha. You no call him Indy. You call him DOCTOR Crook County!
No readers … no replies.
Holy Shit! That is some FUNNY ShIt!
(Sorry, I couldn’t chance anyone but me reading both in between and the lines themselves, the LINES THEMSELVES! … Uh yeah, anyway … MOTHER F’ING, CHEECH & CHONG, … ONNNNN…. BLLLLLOOOOOOOOMMMMMMM—-BBBEEEERRRRGGGGG!!!!!
Far out man …
i saw a bit of that myself.
when Cheech and Chong are on Bloomberg,
It is at best an homage to a George Carlin posthumous award.
Hey double bubble !!
The Monetary System has been Destroyed!
Somebody post a link to the transcript. And don’t get me wrong, George Carlin was AWESOME! But Cheech and Chong on BLOOMBERG .. strings were pulled, LMAO!
Hehe. I didn’t write that. And. You didn’t read that.
Cheech and Chong, as olde olde men of Stature, were on Bloomberg!
Take a few minutes/hours to filter this post, and any and all posts you may have read before!
Salud!
…I can’t wait ’til Monday … the Wall Street Jack Off Journal … can’T Compete!
Gentlemen …. Start … YouR Posting … !
It is time for TARP cargo cultists to throw in the towel now, as MBS turned out to be too-big-to-bail.
AHEAD OF THE TAPE
NOVEMBER 14, 2008, 7:46 A.M. ET
By Mark Gongloff
Bailout Recipe Should Include a Grain of Salt
It is time to get out from under the TARP.
Friday is the deadline for banks — however that word is now defined — to apply for cash from the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson sold TARP two months ago as a clearinghouse for toxic credit assets such as mortgage-backed securities. It has since morphed into a capital till for banks and, on Wednesday, a credit backstop for consumers.
Along the way, any pretense TARP would actually relieve holders of troubled assets withered. But apparently some investors still clung to the notion; Mr. Paulson’s latest TARP flip-flop has hammered asset-backed securities. Markit’s ABX index of 2006-vintage, triple-A-rated subprime-mortgage securities has fallen 13% since Wednesday to a record low. The cost of default protection on commercial-mortgage debt has jumped to a record high.
“I’m stunned by the number of people that actually thought TARP was going to do something for them,” said Carlos Mendez, senior managing director at ICP Capital, an investment firm specializing in credit. “Prices across the board have just dropped precipitously.”