The Housing Bubble

(just realized I misunderstood you some - I thought you were speaking of someone on the HBB at first, but now see you meant the guest on the CNBC show. Hey - I haven’t finished my coffee yet)

As packman suggests, conspirators depend heavily upon the cover-up strategy of labeling those who question their actions as tinfoil-hat wearing conspiracy theorists. I concur that conspiracies are rare, but that does not mean they should be assumed to never occur.

Corollary: The more prevalent the knee-jerk assumption that anyone who suspects a conspiracy must wear a tinfoil hat, the easier it becomes for conspirators to operate unquestioned and unopposed.

Everything unknown is conspiracy, until it’s not.

“Everything unknown is conspiracy, until it’s not.”

That may describe your world, but it certainly does not describe mine.

Um, it’s the Open Market Committee, and official government office. No conspiracy here, just the facts.

“Since the PATRIOT act…”

Fortunately with the Dems controlling both Congress and the White House beginning January 20th, Harry Reid will again be able to crow, “We killed the Patriot Act” and this time make it stick.

Right? Right??

It’s gonna be a long 8 years for you.

“Patriotism is the last refuge for a true scoundrel.”

Samuel Johnson

Per Ambrose Bierce:

PATRIOTISM, n. Combustible rubbish read to the torch of any one ambitious to illuminate his name.

In Dr. Johnson’s famous dictionary patriotism is defined as the last resort of a scoundrel. With all due respect to an enlightened but inferior lexicographer I beg to submit that it is the first.

maximum redaction

O.K… got off to a bad start there.

So true oxide - if one was to mention (pre 2008) that a house is actually not a good investment and should be viewed as a place to live, most people would look at you like you had three horns sticking out of your head. If I had enough money, I would buy time on the tube and replay footage of all that bubble hype that went on from 2001 until 2007. Maybe all this talk of bailouts would subside if the masses saw the lines of people waiting to buy Florida condos blabbing about how they were going to buy as many as they could and flip em’ & get rich.

Wow, you guys are right on the money. In the apartment I just moved out of, there was mold seeping through the bathroom ceiling. The cheap bastard landlord started a pool reconstruction project right as it started to warm up last spring and it STILL isn’t finished. No pool all summer long.

I’m pretty sure the a$$hole just didn’t want to pay for insurance on the pool last summer, but that’s just a theory.

What was his response to all this for me? The maintenence guy handed me a can of white spray paint for the bathroom - told me I could “block the stain” with it. Then after all that, they raised my rent.

Now I ask you, WHERE IS MY BAILOUT?

It has never felt so good to be able to just leave.

I have a great landlord now, and a great place with a washer and dryer(used to have to walk clear across the complex just to do a load in the old place), SKYLIGHTS, and a fireplace. And no mold. I’m paying a whopping $45.00 more a month for all that and great appliances.

Never been happier to be a renter. And by the way I owe everyone here a big thanks in part for making sure I didn’t buy into the mania.

–SR

SR,

Glad to hear you found a better place…though it’s too bad your old LL was such a jerk.

Best of luck to you in your new home!

The reason there are so many fires is the last 2 years have been bone dry, after the previous 2 years were very wet.

Plants went wild in 2005-6 when we had near record precipitation-growing leaps and bounds, and then they got cut-off from water for the most part in 2007-8.

Much of the brush you saw burning over the weekend is a crazy tangle in hard to get to spots, that would have required $100’s of millions of $’s to eradicate, but there’s no political will or money to get the job done.

Much of the brush you saw burning over the weekend is a crazy tangle in hard to get to spots,

Evidently some of that brush is in not so hard to get to spots, as it was close enough to set a house on fire.

Why don’t people just mow a little further out?

Clearing brush is time & money consuming…

We just spent around $5k clearing out a defensible position of approx 150 feet around our house, and it took my friend who does this for a living, a month to complete the task.

Alad,

If you get rid of the brush you make the mud slide problems much much worse. Also those fires go so fast because they burn up those slopes.

Which also goes to “why the hell did we build a house next to that slope?” line of thinking.

Clearing brush is time & money consuming…

Sure, but you should only have to do that once. If you keep it cut down every year it’s not as much trouble as trying to cut back 10 years of growth.

And in order to live safely in the world, sometimes you gotta spend some time doing things that, you know, make you safe and stuff.

This is basically what I expected as an answer. So more or less the retards that have a 10 foot yard with a bunch of tinder piled around it just can’t be bothered to clear out some brush b/c it’s hard work. It’s the gubments job afterall…

James,

Thanks for your concern, but how do you know what my property looks like?

All this back-and-forth ignores a fundamental issue: California allowed too many homes to be built in too many wrong places, with the wrong safeguards in place — just as fighting to protect overdevelopment on a fragile barrier island is a losing proposition.

(I’m not speaking about Mr. Sane’s home, I’m speaking in generalities … mostly about suburban developments in known burn areas.)

Wildfires are an active component of the ecosystem(s). Clearing brush is not an adequate antidote when the fundamental premise is flawed.

Someone told me a county in Cali passed a law, due to so many arsons they can’t keep up investigations, if your house burns there- you are guilty of arson till proven innocent? Anyone hear of this?

Haven’t heard of it, and I’m not a lawyer, but in my wildest nightmares I can’t imagine such a law EVER passing constitutional muster.

Alad,

Was in reference to the stuff on the slopes not your specific house.

I also like the reference to the 150′ defensive perimieter. Are you setting up a machine gun nest any time soon?

Most of the flat areas you can get the brush cut back for under 5K? On those slopes, not sure if 150′ is enough. Probably easier to do a controlled burn on some of the slopes.

All that brush… burning is part of its life cycle.

“Is it true that they do not clear the areas of old debris in the LA area, I heard that one of the reasons the fires spread is due to this?”

The areas that are now burning have not had any recent fires to clear away the accumulated brush. That is true of the freeway complex fire in the OC/diamond bar/Yorba Linda. Montecito as well. These areas have not had any fires at all for almost a generation. Symar fire occurred right at northern edges of Symar, an area not yet touched though other areas near there(newhall pass, santa clarita) have had their brush- clearing fires recently).
Brush can grow & get thick real quick, and with the SCAL drought plus all the new tracts going up in these areas recently, it is inevitable that we will have these fires and attendant homes burning.

Sylmar saw a lot of new tracts put up in the burning areas right astride & north of the 210 fwy last 3-4 yrs. Sylmar is part of city of LA and thus saw rampant uncontrolled housing growth with poor planning. It is a hugh foreclosure black hole and an LA cesspool.

Two words: Ice Plant

Ice plant explodes when the fireball comes over. Doesn’t do much to stop your house from going up.

Horses. Goats. Far more effective.

Is that a sonnet?
It’s a decent sonnet.
Ann.
Where are my shoes?
I was wearing red ones,
recently.

*Hmmmm. I was trying for iambic pentameter, but I think I missed it.

Oly, I spent most of my formative years in the theatre so yes a sonnet works better for me.
I have a tendency for run on sentances in real life and four rows looks so tidy!

Regarding the McMansion “townhouse” for sale on the corner:

I would love to see some people living there communally. Even though the yard is tiny, creative gardeners can produce a lot of food from a small space. And the giant garage would make an excellent workshop for bicycle repair/reconstruction, upholstery, furniture making, whatever…

When they move in, they can hold a simple healing ceremony to commemorate the gorgeous enormous hundred year old tree that was cut down to make way for that POS townhouse.

I’d love to live next to a McCrap house that was manufacturing furniture, ahhh… the smells, the sounds, the outdoor storage… that sounds grand.

LA foodbanks reported 40% increase in demand YOY today.

This story reminded me to dispell a notion I’ve seen quite frequently here over the last few weeks.

I’ve seen people complain about the mormon church contributing to prop 8 in California. One poster went so far as to say, “Why didn’t the church contribute that money to food banks to assist the poor?”

1) It wasn’t the church that donated the money, it was individual church members. I was one of them. There was no coersion, nor reward for donating.

2) The LDS church has quite possibly the most extensive food banking system in the world with the possible exception of WIC and the foodstamp program. Many millions in food are given to needy families each year, both member and non-member alike. I give 10X each year to the funds to help the poor and needy what I contributed to prop 8, and my donations for thre poor were unaffected by my support of 8.

3) Wouldn’t it be nice if all organizations were run from the top down by volunteers who worked in their respective careers to provide for family, if any; and served without compensation as officers of said charity? That’s the LDS church, in other words, no paid clergy.

Dum dum dum dum duuum.

Nicely argued.

Ha. I love South Park. And I am amused by how some people feel that their way of life is soooo much better than someone elses. So much so that they feel totally justified by donating money and campaigning to make sure that those other people don’t have the same rights, as they feel are a bedrock to their way of life.

I am pretty much a live and let live kinda guy, but the extreme right wing and extreme left wing sometimes make me wonder, why can’t we all just get along?

Sorry…. Couldn’t resist.

Hello Canada! Snow is a great deturrent.

I do take responsibility for policies i supported, but I can’t think of any recently.

Here’s one Republican I really admire…
=========================================

Hagel, Unrestrained, Lashes Into Bush, Rush And The GOP

“We are educated by the great entertainers like Rush Limbaugh,” said Hagel, sarcastically referencing the talk radio host who once called him “Senator Betrayus.” “You know, I wish Rush Limbaugh and others like that would run for office. They have so much to contribute and so much leadership and they have an answer for everything. And they would be elected overwhelmingly,” he offered. “[The truth is] they try to rip everyone down and make fools of everybody but they don’t have any answers.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/18/hagel-unrestrained-takes_n_144603.html

Another good article on Chuck Hagel, from the New Yorker…

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/11/03/081103fa_fact_bruck

Have you really seen retirement assets evaporate?

Or is this part of the reality of deflation?

There was that ugly little part you were warned about. Where we said debts of any kind become unpayable. Everyone’s wages are inflated and have to drop. Assets drop in value. That includes stock and bonds (aka unpayable debt).

If everything is proportional then loss in portfolio value should be close to the drop in prices; so not sure how bad things are.

I could care less about GWB or BHO. As far as I can tell they are both clueless and have demonstrated it over and over. i.e. What was BHO doing on the bailout legislation? Following GWB, thats what.

So I guess all you liberals on the board are gun-ho about supporting a GM bailout like the savior is proposing. Just remember, your going to get 8 years of failed policy to lay claim to, starting now.

At least Obama is starting to break promises early on things like lobbyists. Will make things easier to accept later when he hikes taxes all to hell.

DinOR,

I value intelligence, and the last 8 years have been an abomination of thought, amongst other travesties…

I’ll forget about ’ssshrubery once he can no longer torment me by making a mockery of our country, but not a day sooner.

My question to B.O supporters is why are they still so invested in making sure GWB’s poor legacy is as cemented as possible?

My question is this: Why is GWB so intent on spinning a revised legacy for himself out of whole cloth, why is he so furiously trying to cement his worldview in place via hard-to-undo executive and regulatory orders (I’ve posted about this before), and why are his remaining acolytes so intent on pinning the failures of the past eight years on the incoming administration, months before the incoming crew has even taken the reins?

James,

Excellent, excellent points! I really hadn’t viewed it in that light? Of course that doesn’t make a ‘thing’ any less painful but I have no interest in seeing “Boomer Camps” of middle-aged people on the side of the road where their gas for their RV ran out “living off the land”?

But there’s entirely TOO many people eager to see exactly that if it gives them license to eternity and beyond to slam the Bush legacy. Man, talk about cutting off your nose..?

Oh btw, stocks represent “an equity stake in a publicly-traded company” and bonds represent -debt- or at least it used to?

Here’s what you ’should’ be concerning yourselves with:

I’m willing to bet that LONG after Bush is gone aladinsane ( among others ) will STILL be doing victory laps and going out of their way to hike a hind leg on anything that starts with a “B”.

You’ll quickly become the LEAST valued among BHO’s now flagging supporters and more a detriment and distraction than a asset as the honeymoon wanes.

*Not that I don’t… -value- “intelligence” but there’s HAS to be something said for e-x-e-c-u-t-i-o-n. ( And we’ll all… learn about BHO’s ability to execute here shortly )

i’ve followed Barack for almost 5 years now, and I like the cut of his cloth, but i’m not expecting a miracle-worker, just competence.

I gave ’ssshrubery the benefit of the doubt until enron, when he betrayed California…

ET-Chicago….Well E.O.s aren’t at all difficult to undo. All it takes is the stroke of a pen. Regulations at least in theory aren’t any harder to undo than they were to enact. Although the process takes months or (more likely) years either way.

aladinsane,

Hey great, please, please… address how he can -possibly- have any positive impact with 48% of the voters “dragging their feet” and I mean really digging their heels in?

You can’t break it can you? You can’t break the Bush-bashing habit, can you? It’s become a “default setting” for so many of you, you actually believe it’s a normal state of mind. Pffftt, certainly can’t have been that there was any real fear? You people have been so loud and abrasive you could go in front of a crowd of 50 people in the Post Office and dress someone down just on “Suspicion of Being Republican” and probably get applause to boot?

Any you just can’t conceive we might not find that equally entertaining? Go to HowObamaGotElected.com for some ‘real’ entertainment. I’m done, you Keep’On Bashin’.

@ one time ’ssshrubery had the approval of 80% of Americans, so I wouldn’t place too much stock in statistics…

Let’s see what Obama can or can’t do, before we cast dispersion~

Penny Pritzker, of the billionaire Pritzker family, was primarily responsible for getting Obama into the White House.

However the Pritzkers are known (Bloomberg magazine October issue) to have moved a lot of their wealth offshore to avoid taxes of the sort that their man B.O. would impose on them. Taxes are good for the little guy, but not the elitists.

Not surprisingly, Alad moves most of his wealth in the dreaded gold form (most socialists hate hard currency) and has also been a fervent B.O. supporter. But I doubt if Alad has 3 extra zeros in his net worth like the Pritzkers.

Go figure.

So I guess all you liberals on the board are gun-ho about supporting a GM bailout like the savior is proposing.

Actually no. I’ve read one of the liberal wacko blogs (kos, if you must know), and very few of them want a bailout of GM. At least not a blank-check bailout. The libs know full well that upper management trashed the GM brand long before the economy finished the job. The only thing holding back the libs from frying the GM execs in their own crude oil is the prospect of losing all those jobs.

The impression I get from the Obama interview on 60 minute is that allowing GM to die would be a victory for free markets in a psychological sense only. From a pragmatic standpoint, it may cost less to bail out GM than to not bail out GM.

Well E.O.s aren’t at all difficult to undo. All it takes is the stroke of a pen. Regulations at least in theory aren’t any harder to undo than they were to enact. Although the process takes months or (more likely) years either way.

In general, EOs are easy to undo, but not always easy to “erase.”

Executive regulatory orders can be extremely difficult to undo when implemented properly — once in place, overturning a reg. order requires moving through an agency’s normal regulatory process, which, as you note can take years. Compound that by hundreds of orders, some purposefully convoluted, all of which must be overturned in a bureaucratic fashion.

The only saving grace is that the current administration didn’t take the Congressional Review Act of 1996 into account, which should enable Congress to overturn many of the regs on a simple up or down vote.

A Penny for his thoughts?

“Comment by DinOR
2008-11-18 11:35:45

Excellent, excellent points! I really hadn’t viewed it in that light? Of course that doesn’t make a ‘thing’ any less painful but I have no interest in seeing “Boomer Camps” of middle-aged people on the side of the road where their gas for their RV ran out “living off the land”?”

Speak for yourself. I personally think that would be farking hilarious, even poetically just.

Pointing out Bush failures as a means to hold him and those who apologize for him is “bashing”? Aren’t these people the same crowd that belabored over and over about accountability, responsibility and all the other airy fairy philisophical/ideological intangibles pumped out of crazy Leo Strauss think tanks? Yet we should cut their point man who got elected on that garbage a mile of slack? One might consider stepping away from the outlandish and blatant hypocrisy before rushing in to make excuses. He and the GOP is ALL yours.

just because we revolt at the incompetence of *our* beloved president we are labeled liberals/socialist. oh, i know its the *we against them*. give me a break.

Umm..the boomer bashing is also getting tiresome. I am one. I have worked all my life, saved furiously, and paid full freight out of savings and current earnings for 2/3 of my children’s college educations (#3 is still in HS). They do not have a penny of debt. Because they did not need to work, they were able to take on the course loads, labs and problem sets required to earn degrees in hard science.

No. 3 will not have debt either. However, I have noticed myself talking to him about skilled trades such as air frame mechanic and electrical wiring type things.

I do not do vacations or jewelry. As long as my skills have value, I do not foresee myself doing retirement either. My solution to leaving a legacy is to make sure my beneficiary designations are bulletproof, get on a murder board project, pull a month of all-nighters, and die at my desk.

I will be fooked before I am a would-be nomad in a broke down RV. Or a drooling prisoner in a state run holding tank.

So cut it out.

“Excellent, excellent points! I really hadn’t viewed it in that light? Of course that doesn’t make a ‘thing’ any less painful but I have no interest in seeing “Boomer Camps” of middle-aged people on the side of the road where their gas for their RV ran out “living off the land”?”

I’d rather enjoy seeing such “Boomer Camps” for the most deserving boomers. I wonder if they’d realize they were complicit in their own diminished circumstances.

aladinsane –
I gave ’ssshrubery the benefit of the doubt until enron, when he betrayed California…

I gave Bush the benefit of the doubt until 9/11, when he betrayed the entire country (yes, I voted for Bush in 2000). For those of you who voted for Bush and didn’t notice this betrayal, you weren’t paying very close attention. The media and his fellow politicians (both Democratic and Republican) all gave him a free pass, all in the name of patriotism, right after 9/11. It was TRULY an astounding period of time, when those who had truly and magnanimously failed our country were given a “do-over”, as long as the “do-over” consisted of firing up the F-16s and flexing our military muscle.

So why are house prices and gold prices and share prices falling then?

Answer me that, O Wondrous Wise One with pat answers and no insight!

Why oh why would you support either of the white elephants you mentioned financially, at this time?

No country that has ever experienced hyperinflation has ever had falling share prices or falling gold prices (in local currency) or falling house prices.

These are just facts.

So either you’re lying or incompetent. Which is it?

The horse race that is hyperinflation has only gone a furlong, and you are trying to cash your ticket on the basis of only seeing 1/8th of the race run.

Patience…

So if we’re only in 1/8th of the race, I’ll first play 6/8ths of the rest of the race, and then cash in my ticket.

Besides I have only one phrase for you — see if you actually understand the problem: complex derivatives = zero-sum = cr@pload of deflation.

FPSS, that is not true about real estate in inflation.

“Bard Real Estate estimated Harare house prices lost 16 percent in US dollar terms over the past year as the Zimbabwe dollar tumble.”

Now since that is not true and since the GDP deflator is 4.2% and since PPI without Oil but including food is up 8.3% not just 4.2%, I would suggest that the risk is inflation. Oil and energy are only 7% of the economy.

Bubbles collapsing are NOT indicative of deflation. Let me know when the GDP deflator turns negative. “Deflation should not be confused with temporarily falling prices; instead, it is a sustained fall in general prices.”

The key point is “sustained fall in general prices”. Deflation is looking more and more remote.

You are as confused as the lad.

Money supply increase = inflation. Hence, money supply decrease = deflation.

It has nothing to do with the prices of eggs, dogs, or your underwear.

This money can go into anything. In this cycle it went into houses and even vaster sums into derivatives. Now both are collapsing and you’re talking to me about your milk and eggs?

Get a clue where the carnage is.

The amount that is being destroyed daily is so large that the miniscule printing that they are doing means nothing compared to extraordinary levels of money destruction derivatives market.

FPSS,
Some people are unconvincible. I had the same arguement except the items were boneless NY Strip (or KC Strip) steaks a few months ago. Orthodoxology is a heavy burden to bear but few bearing it want to remove the yoke. Take the opposite position and laugh about it afterward, seems to be the only way.

Faster you are lost in Austrian economics screwed up by Friedman/Keynesian economic drivel.

“Money supply increase = inflation. Hence, money supply decrease = deflation.”

“The term “inflation” once referred to increases in the money supply (monetary inflation); however, economic debates about the relationship between money supply and price levels have led to its primary use today in describing price inflation. Inflation can also be described as a decline in the real value of money—a loss of purchasing power. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services. A chief measure of price inflation is the inflation rate, which is the percentage change in a price index over time.”

So suck eggs, you macromaniac ex-Chicagoan by way of Indiana options trader. There are $11 T dollars looking for a home. It does not matter, except for US residents purposes, whether another dollar is ever printed. The money is ready and waiting to be spent. If you don’t have the funds for cheese or meat or vegetables, somebody else does. The supply for sale is not getting larger. The demand is growing is growing world wide.

I still enjoy reading your entries. :>)

“This money can go into anything. In this cycle it went into houses and even vaster sums into derivatives.”

This I think is where the misconception is. Very little actual money went into houses. The supposedly huge equity buildups of the last 8 years or so were false money, not real money. Thus the loss of all this equity in falling house prices is not deflation, it’s only loss of supposed equity that never really existed.

Put another way - if two men “buy” a house:
A. $40k downpayment on a $200k house
B. $10k downpayment on a $500k house

which man really spent more for his house? Most people would say the latter spent more for his house, but that’s only true if 30 years later both have paid off their house in full.

Instead we’re seeing massive foreclosures. So B only really pays about $11k for his house after the “value” goes down to $200k due to home price decreases and he walks away. So in reality man A paid more for his house than man B did.

So is man B’s house price transition from 500k -> 200k deflation? No.

It would only be deflation if everyone was still putting large downpayments, and not walking away. That went out the door about 10 years ago.

To sum it up - inflation vs. deflation in the housing market is correlated exactly with downpayments, not with mortgage values. If downpayments do not deflate, then there is no deflation in the housing market.

The money is absolutely real. They pulled it out and spent it but they can only spend it ONCE.

They spent it on the goods and services and they inflated accordingly. Now that demand is gone, and deflate they will.

Once the homeowners walk (= default) it’s flat-out deflation. The bank has to raise capital to take the write off on its balance sheet.

He was one Jones not worth keeping up with…

“private information”

I should have said a lot of “personal information” as much of it is public record.

Fear rules the markets for the moment, but it will not rule forever. When fear dwindles, so will demand for physical gold, IMHO.

Who’s got our back, when it comes to greenbacks?

Not an unreasonable question, please give me a reasonable answer…

Gold wins (in local currency) if you have debts denominated in foreign currency that you have no intention to repaying (Argentina, Iceland) or if you believe that the imminent collapse of the government is coming (or both.)

Do you see either of these possibilities? I didn’t think so.

Who’s got our back, when it comes to greenbacks?

The future productivity both intellectual and physical of your fellow Americans.

That’s what backs a currency.

And we freely steal the world’s best and brightest.

Riddle me this, Batman, why hasn’t the world produced a Caterpillar or a Boeing or even something so mundane as a Lotus 1-2-3?

How do you expect us to pay our $10 Trillion debt
to the rest of the world, if we keep the value of it up?

Fiats get buggered all the time, what makes us any different?

You don’t. It’ll never get paid.

A debt that is not paid is powerfully deflationary. You just took someone else’s “assets” and b*ggered them till they bled.

The “assets” (including your precious gold) are no use at all until they are exchanged for goods and services. All you hope to do is “time transportation”.

Besides, what can the “sum total of foreigners” do with dollars? They can only spend them on our goods and services or else they are can just hang on their dollars like you hang on to your gold. Sounds pretty dumb to me either way.

You seriously confuse “storage of wealth” with “means of exchange”.

We’re not at “peak” Peak Fear; we’re at “Peak Fear Minus One” to freely mix my metaphors.

We’ll be there at Q3 or Q4 of 2009. That’s when the gold people will go nuts, and you really should be thinking about buying quality financial assets at steep discounts.

In the near term, I cannot see that we are at “Peak Fear” presently.

Just wait until after everyone gets back to work after Thanksgiving or after the December holidays.

When families, even “well off” ones, get together and have time to reflect and share, it will really settle in…

Fear shows up the day after Black Friday…

‘In the near term, I cannot see that we are at “Peak Fear” presently.’

Have a peak at VIX then get back to us…

we are not at peak fear, at least for real estate investors. The deep pocket real estate investors think todays prices are bargains and are still buying. when all the real estate investors are totally bruised and battered, we will be near peak fear in real estate.

“…we are not at peak fear, at least for real estate investors.”

I’m with you, bro’ — the stock market will always naturally lead the real estate market, as the latter is populated and heavily influenced by the ignorati.

“the stock market will always naturally lead the real estate market, as the latter is populated and heavily influenced by the ignorati.”

Not this time. RE started crashing in late 2006 or so - stock market peaked a year later and didn’t start really crashing until two months ago. This truly is a housing-led downturn, since housing itself was the bubble.

(Yeah yeah I know some people like to claim it was a “credit” bubble - it truly was but where did all of the dollars borrowed via that credit go this time? Housing. Either directly or indirectly via MBS)

I’m ready for my close-up, Mr. De Mille…

Whoever stars as NYCityBoy gets to drink Jackie D’s on the set. But I kinda like the idea of being Exeter, he gets to play a mean axe in church, that would be cool…so many stars, so little time…

I’m thinking about getting a BC Rich Bitch but I it might go over with the congregation like a turd in the punchbowl. They’re pretty cool though. Check it out…

http://www.partoch.com/images/materiel/modele/big/2044.jpg

I used my E.S.P. today to imagine just what the Lad looks like and this is what I came up with: Thin, pale blue eyes, former strawberry blond, lankyish, and I think he has problems with his knuckles and his knee! He has ok teeth, and krinkles under his mischievous eyes! He only talks to people when he has to and all in all not a bad bloke.

How’d I do?

There’s a local legend deer, simply known as…

“Doezilla”

She’s a bit of a nutcase, way overprotective, and i’ve seen her chase bears, one tough mama~

Where are all the secular humanists on the board? They should be jumping in with both feet to call BS on this “tripe”.

I’m not, I most definitely believe humans are capable of things far beyond our knowledge, just as I believe the soul is eternal in nature. My point is that some here jump all over organized religion while ignoring or incouraging references to other unexplained supernatural events, seeming just because they aren’t mainstream.

Flame away.

Yeah, we used headlamps all the time with search and rescue, very good. Great for camping and reading, too.

I love my NOAA radio, it’s the first thing I turn on in the morning, along with my espresso machine, one hand for each.