The Housing Bubble

You need to show a bit more Malthusiasm…

Give 110%

The “more babies” solution is hilarious! Yes, we NEED more people paving over the world and filling it with refuse all in an effort to keep housing unaffordable and executives overpaid.

As for the bloody war idea, that will be China’s solution to their population problems, IMHO.

Or we could do what FDR did and get involved in a bloody war

FDR did not get the US involved in WWII, Japan and Germany got the US involved in it.

You think FDR should have just let Pearl Harbor go or something?

FDR did not get the US involved in WWII, Japan and Germany got the US involved in it.

Do you honestly think that Pearl Harbor was a surprise to FDR? He needed a dramatic call to action to convince the masses to join the war effort, masses who embraced isolationism at the time and wanted nothing to do with war in Europe.

Ask yourself, why not one carrier of the Pacific fleet was in port at the time of the attack? Fortuitous event or shrewd planning? Remember, luck favors the prepared…

There were a lot of ways he could have generated a “call to action” besides letting the Japanese take out the Pacific Fleet.

NOBODY expected (or even worse, credited the Japanese with the ability) to attack Hawaii. Even Admiral Halsey (no friend of the Japanese, and one who was familiar with the capabilities of carrier airpower) didn’t think that they would attack anything farther east than Wake Island. Even eight months later, we were STILL underestimating the ability of the Japanese (see Battle of Savo Island).

This remains a big flaw in our national character……underestimating the abilities and intentions of our opponents/competitors, until we get our ass handed to us; then going overboard the other way, and thinking they are unfallible and superhuman.

There were a lot of ways he could have generated a “call to action” besides letting the Japanese take out the Pacific Fleet.

Well, the alternatives are either we were damned lucky no carriers were present that day or this was a 1941 version of the “Lusitania”, a thinly-veiled plan to manipulate public opinion and give politicians and bankers an excuse for war. Had those carriers been sunk, the Pacific would have been lost in 1941 and the world a very different place today…

Actually, we ARE in two bloody wars, but you wouldn’t know it.
Here’s a website to keep track:
http://icasualties.org/oif/

Yeah, I’m aware of the wars we got now. And everytime I hear about even a single death (especially in Iraq) it makes me get physically red-faced angry. I would have no compunction at all about hanging every single politician that supported it.

Still when compared to FDR’s ability to reduce the workforce, Bush & co. are amateurs.

We got “lucky”, but we didn’t realize it at the time.

The Japanese Navy created the “Carrier Battle Group” (1st Air Fleet) on April 10, 1941. We sort of stumbled into the idea of a “Carrier Task Force” by default after the war started.

I have noticed this with other yuts…Why do you think this is?

internets, I say.

I couldnt wait to feel the power of that used vega.

I learned how not to drive, in a Vega.

‘72 4 speed manual, i’m like barely 14, parents and siblings are gone for one day of a weekend, and I pounce on it…

I had no idea how to use a stick, but how hard could it be?

I’ll just learn on the job, yeah that’s it.

It took me about 5 minutes to figure out the reverse gear, rolled it out of the garage, and drove 4 miles in 1st gear-oblivious to any higher gears.

ha

Im here to report that I have never ever driven a stick shift. My brother tried to teach me in the corolla but going backwards downhill left me terrified.

About 12 years old here in a truck on a fruit ranch for the summer…

LOL, lad! I had the same experience (family gone, etc) with an AMC Hornet Sportabout wagon. Except I couldn’t figure out the reverse and the car ended up about 3 inches back from where my dad had left it.

Of course he recognized that it wasn’t in the right place. Of course I denied everything.

I’m the only person in the office who owns a stick shift. My Wife doesn’t know how to drive one either.

Speaking of enthusiasm for newly minted 16 year olds, my first car was my Uncle’s 72′ Plymouth Fury. Loved that car. Wish I’d held onto it. But anyhow, I too have noticed this sort of “entitlement” younger people exhibit these days. We recently sold my Wife’s 90′ Honda Civic hatchback. It was old, but in great shape, with shiny red paint and a black leather interior. We sold it for $2,000. The parents were actually more excited by it than their kid who sat with his headphones on in the back of the car the whole time they test drove it.

… an AMC Hornet Sportabout wagon.

Ah, AMC: The hotbed of strange-and-eccentric American auto design in the ’60s and ’70s.

A vintage AMC sighting always make me smile.

I can’t drive a stick. In fact, I didn’t get my driver’s license until I was 27. I couldn’t afford insurance while I was in high school and finding ways to pay for it was not high on my list of priorities. Afterwards I found myself in places where car ownership was not worthwhile. At the age of 27 I finally found myself living in a rural area and decided to get the license.

My job in the Army was a truck driver (all trucks were stick). I didn’t know how to drive a stick. On the first day at driving school, some of the sergeants took all the non-stick drivers and put us with a experienced driver in a jeep. I sat in the back seat of the jeep and was able to watch my fellow newbies learn how to drive a stick. When it came to my turn, I was able to not embarass myself.

“I didn’t know how to drive a stick”

At my last job, I was in charge of training the new hires how to drive stick (all our vehicles were stick). I always wondered if it was because I was the best one at teaching them or if I was the only one crazy enough to get in the passenger seat while teaching them to drive in heavy traffic?

ET-Chicago -A friend pointed out while watching Edward Scisorhands that ALL the cars in the show were AMCs.

SanFranciscoBayAreaGal And of course trucks are harder than cars ’cause they’re crashboxes instead of syncromesh. I wonder what the guy down the street wants for his old, used M35 deuce-and-a-half. Now THAT makes the Hummer look like it’s for girly-men.

I think part of the reason 16 year olds are not excited about getting their license as compared to earlier generations, in many cases, is because their parents cart them around to wherever it is they might want to go.

There’s no need to learn how to drive.

Spoiled and Rotten are two words that might describe the situation.

My 15 year old daughter has been driving cars (while sitting on my lap) since she was about eight……including shifting the manual tranny (yeah, I cheated and worked the clutch….). She’s been chomping at the bit to start driving for over a year.

My 15 year old daughter has been driving cars (while sitting on my lap) since she was about eight……

That’s how I learned and I’m pretty sure I started at maybe even a younger age.

The first time I drove on a busy highway (not interestate, but local highway) by myself was at about age 11 or 12. My step dad met someone down the road and sold him a car and I went to pick him up. At 14 I had a motorcycle (legal if it’s 250cc or less) as my only vehicle.

Jim A,

I drove a deuce-and-a-half and a five ton tracker trailer during my Army days. Loved driving the deuce-and-a-half.

“There’s no need to learn how to drive.

Spoiled and Rotten are two words that might describe the situation.”

That and the fact that most of em’ are just internet drones. Why go out when they can just vege out in internet world. Chat rooms, blogs (we’re guilty here!!), warcraft, etc…

When I was 16 (no internet) we actually went outside and did stuff!! Driving was a rite to passage. Couldn’t wait to drive!! Cruise the drag downtown, go to the park, blaze-up and play frizbee, guitar, chase girls with my homies. Greatest times of my life.

My girlfriend’s bloodshot-eyed Son occasionally drags himself out of his nerd hole (bedroom) to get something to eat, and it’s right bact to Warcraft, or whatever internet BS he’s droning away at. He could care less about driving. Weird.

DOC

Lad, careful with the FJ Cruiser — looks cool , but my personal opinion is that its a dog. Please note:

1. Cheap dashboard and other component materials, used to keep price point reasonable.
2. Very rough ride, bad on lower back.
3. The worst real world gas mileage [This car is one of the reasons people grumble that Toyota don't get no bad stink from its own gas guzzlers].

re: the FJ Cruiser. The fact that a car that big can have a back seat that small says two things:

1) Toyota has correctly guessed that 99% of all US car trips are two people or less;
2) Teenagers aren’t gettin’ it like they used to..

The gas mileage of the FJ turned me off instantly. I liked the retro look but seeing what the V6 in that lunch box with wheels got I didn’t even open the door, I was gone before the sales guy even had a chance to ask what kind of payment I wanted…

Hey everybody,

Thanks for the advice, I appreciate it…

Not sure if this would change opinions, but i’d only use it on dirt mountain roads, snowy mountain roads and the occasional roadtrip, perhaps 3,000 miles a year.

Does it still bark like a dog?

Toyota FJ

1. Yep, lots of plastic, but fit and finish is still quality. But who cares, this is not a luxury SUV grocery getter. Basic with offroad skills was the purpose.
2. Has a better ride than most 4×4 on roads, it is the crappy seats that hurt your back on long rides.
3. If you are buying a 4×4 for MPG, you are an idiot. They don’t get good mileage and never will. Buy a station wagon.

4. I will add, do not buy the FJ if going to soccer and getting groceries at Costco is you main objective. the rear sucide doors are not meant for children to be able to get in and out without help and it feels like a cave in the back.

The FJ is a 2 person offroad 4×4. To buy it for a daily commuter would be something an FB would do.

OK calex. Since over 99% of 4×4’s see 1% off road time EVERYONE is an idiot in your book. Who buys a 4×4 for off road only anyway? It would be better to rent one to trash right? Ever live where firewood, 130+ inches of snow in town, in a mild remote area is a way of life before?

Not everyone fits into your narrow minded book.

“I’m 31 years old and am still driving the Toyota truck I bought off the lot ”

I have a 2002 toyo tacoma Ex cab pickup with 160,000 miles . Payed it off and have never had a single problem with it. Brought it used at 40,000 miles in 2005. have used it has a delivery vehicle so it has a lot of miles but still reliable as hell. This model was rated By JD powers as the most mechanically reliable of the toyo P/U models, better than the new 2007+ models . Payed $16,000 for it and have never regretted it. 20-22 MPG in the city/ 25+ on the hwy.

My Toyo p/u is a tribute to Japanese engineerring and workmanship.

happy last night to have been driving my stick. got off the train, get in my 1994 ford escort wagon 5 speed to go home. starter is dead.

get a nice guy in a jeep wrangler to give me a bit of a push down the hill between the parking spaces, pop the clutch and voila! I am on my way home …

car has 220,000 miles so far, runs like a top. dropped her directly at my mechanic who asked “how long are you going to keep this thing?” my answer “as long as you keep it going! :-D”

I hate to rain on everybody’s parade here, but if the auto industry (in fact, just about any business) was dependent upon buyers who only bought a product every 10-15 years, the whole industry (and I mean everybody) would have gone down the tubes a long time ago.

If nothing else, a new car is safer, and produces less emissions (but you can make the argument that the actual benefit vs. the cost in money, extra weight, extra complexity has reached a point of diminishing returns)

Some folks on this blog give me the distinct impression that they would have been perfectly happy in the Soviet Union, circa 1955, where everyone had to scrape by on just the neccesities.

Frankly, I kinda like progress, like having the internet……and my new HDTV……and having a nice comfortable car to drive I can depend on for my 6-8 hour road trips.

Our 13 YO bay thoroughbred gelding has only 1HP but produces gas aplenty.

Repairs are usually a shoe-in.

Goes by name “Rebel”. Takes after our oldest boy.

Awesome story. Like my dad says, “I’ll drive it till the wheels fall off, then I’ll glue them back on.”

I just bought a used 2001 Subaru Outback Limited w/ a rebuilt title. 103K miles, just broke in. $4K cash out the door. The way I figure it I paid $1k for the motor, $1k for the tranny, $1k for the body/runnnig gear, and $1k for the interior (leather, 2 sun roofs, cruise and all that). I don’t care that it has dings eveywhere, it gets me there!

Wait until you have to fix that tranny…..two thousand bucks. (My brother ran into this…..when the tranny starts making noise, start saving money for the next car).

mina- if theres clicking when you turn the key to start, then have someone turn the key while you give the starter a little percussive maintenance with a hammer. Also, park on downslopes. Should keep you rolling til you get it fixed.

“My Toyo p/u is a tribute to Japanese engineerring and workmanship.”

LOL.. My brother just had Toy buy his 2000 Tacoma back. Would not pass a New York State inspection. Take a look around the net for the rotted out frame recall.

My 97 Dodge Ram still going strong after 160K miles.. Payments? We don’t need no stinkin’ payments…

Yes - they are as bad as cops.

Just the ones who can’t afford their car payments. After 17 years of practice (notice I said practice, not perfection or anyhting close) I’ve found that douchebaggery tends to correlate inversely with actual talent/skill.

“Yes - they are as bad as cops.”

Wait until the pension riots start.

And proportionally to success.

Absolutely

Retired at 55? Well done, counselor. I’m hoping to maybe, maybe, hang it up by 70. In my town, I still see several guys hammering away well into their seventies and even early 80s, although there may be a component of just wanting something to do instead of golfing all day.

Did you flush your brake fluid with one of these: http://www.trackhaus.com/ I need to do mine on a 79 F150 4×4.

Go Idaho! Subarus are the #1 car here for a reason. Snow and dirt galore. If you are ever in the Cd’A area hit me up we can do lunch and chat about all things housing. Boy, did we have the most beautiful fall? It’s a bit grey now but the colors were explosive this year!

What year is that, btw?

I remember with mixed feeling the 1971 144s that I used to own. Expletive deleted Zenth Stromburg carbs and brakes that perpetually needed bleeding. But it was comfortable, roomy, and I never worried about anyone stealing it.

I think the 240s stopped being made around 1994. That would be my benchmark for the last of the real volvos (though we own a 2001).

Other companies “copy” because NHTSI and DOT promulgated laws requiring manufacturers to provide(restraint, airbags, etc). As a side note, why would anyone pay 2x or 3x cost to provide a simple task, i.e transportation? Shallow, baseless status seeking is why. There is nothing a vulva can do that a honda, toy or nissan can’t.

But it was Volvo who invented those safety concepts which proven so effective that many gov’t around the world mandated all car manufacturers to follow suit. There is really no one who done more for car safety than Volvo from a car company point of view, period. As far as status seeking, I wouldn’t even put Volvo in the same class as the other you cited, MB or BMW, different animals altogether.

Same class or not, I’m not sure why anyone other than those enslaved to status seeking would pay 2-3x for a Ford.

“There is nothing a vulva can do that a honda, toy or nissan can’t.”

Oh yes there is! I happen to LOVE vulvas and the lovely 2 legged creatures they are part of.

:)

I love my ‘97 Vulva Wagon.

Bought used in 2006, with plenty of dings from Chicago driving. I’m pretty sure that I’m not making an aesthetic statement with this particular car.

And I feel pretty good about totin’ my baby boy around in it, safety- and durability-wise.

I’m proud of my 1966 model year Vulva.

ET, enjoy the rig. It’s a real one, not a Ford.

peter m,

I suppose just like the settlers on the Great Plains we too will have to learn to make the most of our surroundings? Right now we’re surrounded by containers!

I understand there have been several examples of successful conversions and Bob Vila did a great segment on using them post-Katrina. While it ‘is’ cheaper, a finished unit will incur expense just as any other structure would in an urban setting. They’re nearly indestructible and if we want to put architects back to work, this might be a nice place to start?

You’d have to weigh the cost of recycling them vice just using them as is.

“They’re nearly indestructible and if we want to put architects back to work”

I heard they get real hot & real cold due to to the metal skin. They would have to be insulated. Some company in britain did some conversions near the London?liverpool dock waterfronts, turnnig them into dockside studios, working trailers, offices,even habitations, ect.
Then again there are 1000’s of modular construction trailers stacked up unsold all over the IE in riverside /san berdoo which would do just as well. I wonder about using a modular construction trailer as a living space. They are designed as working offices in contruction zones but can be quite easliy used as alternate living units as the potty room is already in place.
Cheap Trailer /moble homes/stacked modular homes/converted containers might be the future of cheap affordable housing as long as they are not sited in firezones such as those Oakridge Sylmar units.

The analogy that I’ve heard is that making housing out of containers is like making furniture out of 55 gallon drums. It’s more of a fashion statement than a moneysaver. Sure, a tiny uninsulated shell with no windows is cheap, but it isn’t much of a house either. And turning it into a house isn’t easy or cheap. Plus, they’re really not designed to last. They’ll start rusting on you after a few years.

Jim A,

And I have played many a’ card game atop a 55 gal. drum waiting for a sortie of aircraft to return! Actually what you say is true but if you watch Bob Vila’s video link they have to be sprayed w/ a special insulating paint and they’re just fine temp-wise.

I tend to think of them as logical step toward creating independence in a remote area. You will need a place to store tools equipment etc. and they look as good as any? Once you’ve completed your permanent home they’ll revert back to shop/whatever. No doubt they’ll require ’some’ maint.

“How many more cup holders do we really need?”

I’d just like one that works. After all these years, they still can’t even get that right.

car farms

Zombie car grave yards

Cripes, sounds like South Riding, VA.

They had a mall with a nail salon, chinese restaurant, and a dry cleaners. So, this planned community built another mall across the street. It contained a nail salon, a chinese restaurant, and a dry cleaners.

Thanks guys. Is a book store too much to ask for?

Well ( ahem ) unlike all the Americans that ‘claim’ to have contempt for attorneys ( but don’t -hesitate- to HIRE them ) I’ll come right out and say I actually like and use strip malls!

Sorry guys, most of us do use them. Besides, talk to any convenience store operator and they’ll tell you that you only have about about a 2 to 3 year “sweet spot” in current location before traffic patterns or demographics or the neighborhood changes. So you stay there and ‘live’ w/ declining sales or you move on.

There’s plenty of other stuff to get bent out of shape about. If there were no need to service ever shifting populations Goldfield, NV would still be booming.

They’ve practically carpet-bombed the country with commercial RE space ??

Exactly…Every bit as bad as the residential side….

Question is, why? Some of the space has never leased out. I don’t understand the business plan. I use strip malls too, but when I do I always wonder why they built them if they had only one or two interested tenants.

Guys, it’s actually the opposite of residential real estate.

Imagine trying to sell a private ‘residence’ where your advertising boasted “Over 50 thousand cars a day go right past your front door!”

Or even worse, a retail outlet offered as: “So remote and quiet you can hear the owls hoot!”

I’m not saying it wasn’t over done, as Ben reminds us, “When money is cheap ( we’re running out of land! )” but CRE is dynamic, not stagnant. Nothing sadder than watching a long standing retailer die a slow death due to traffic pattern changes. Gotta’ go with the flow guys.

In Montana,

Excellent question. I’m sure that when they go through the trouble to get zoning permits and all the other start-up expenses etc. they know they need a certain amount of sq. footage and exposure to make it pencil out.

One example right here in Marion County Oregon was where a Hollywood Video ( which I would NEVER go to to rent movies as I have no TV let alone a DVD player nor the electricity to power them ) backed out of the deal so now they lost their anchor tenant. It happens. They re-negged when the economy was still going ‘gangbusters’ and my neighbor that works in “Creative Content” went and built a 4,000 s/f McChateaux I warned him against so we’re *not speaking. ( Whole other story )

So now we have a Papa Murphy’s ( I wouldn’t be caught dead in ) Happy Jing (diner) a tanning salon, a Jamba wannabe and FOUR empty units! It’s just business, why are we getting so torqued over this?

I like aquarium shops. I don’t buy anything there, but it is nice to be able to stop by, stare at the pretty fish and lower my blood pressure every once in a while.

I don’t buy anything, so they aren’t going to be successful because of me. For that reason, I do not suggest that banks lend them any money, but if a really rich person doesn’t mind dumping money down a black hole, I vote for more aquarium stores.

“Question is, why? Some of the space has never leased out. I don’t understand the business plan. I use strip malls too, but when I do I always wonder why they built them if they had only one or two interested tenants.”

The answer is: because the money was there to borrow! I have seen MASSIVE overbuilding in commercial, especially on a trip through northern NV last summer. There is so much vacant space, it would take decades to lease it. The pain is NOT over for the banks. Much of this debt is still being serviced. When that’s no longer the case with this commercial stuff, and large numbers of Alt-A and Prime loans go bad on residential, the carnage should be quite fantastic, to say the least.

FPSS wrote: “Can you seriously think of anything we need more of?”

Yes, definitely: this country needs more pawn-shops. How else are we going to get rid of all the other cr*p we don’t need, and get some cash to buy the things we do need, like groceries??

I’d love to see more competition in the pawn-shop industry, because that would mean even BETTER bargains for me during the downturn. I’m thinking of all the useful tools and such that I can pick up when construction has REALLY thrown in the towel.

‘I’m thinking of all the useful tools and such that I can pick up when construction has REALLY thrown in the towel.’

Me, too, primey! I want a band-saw, for instance, and another Mikita drill, and maybe even a chainsaw. A little cute one, suitable for girly arms. NOT for trees! Heckno! To break down pallets and suchlike. Hmmmm….all sorts of goodies like that.

I remember nhz relating how prices on homes were 2-3x that of Germany, just over the border from it-in the Netherlands…

Saw the CEO on CNBC a while back and it caught my attention since my life insurance policy is with ING. This Times piece confirms what he said (if can you believe it…)

Q. What has been your involvement in the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States?

A. We’ve had fairly limited exposure to the subprime crisis and the issues around it. For the fourth quarter of 2007, ING worldwide had total impairments (losses as well as reserves set aside) of 194 million euros. If you look at that in the context of what’s been going on, it shows a relatively limited exposure. We are not an originator of subprime mortgages or a lot of the other instruments that have gotten companies into trouble. We invested in some residential-mortgage-backed securities, but our focus has been on the highly rated AAA and AA ones.

ING Group had 2.8 billion euros of residential-mortgage-backed securities collateralized by subprime mortgages at the end of 2007, which represented a modest part of the company’s worldwide assets of 1.3 trillion euros.

regarding ING: yes, their subprime exposure is limited, but the alt-A exposure is the real problem as far as the US market is concerned. They have been lying about the subject until very recently, when they had to drop the bomb. Their exposure to US alt-A loans is about 30 billion as far as I know. I have no idea about the size of Dutch (or other EU) loans, it must be at least the same size.

Just look at the ING chart (not ING Direct, that is just a US subsidiary), it should tell you enough. I have been saying it for some time and will repeat it again: ING is a bank that is acting like a hedgefund. They think they are the most clever banksters in the universe and are still mostly in denial about what is going on; recipe for disaster.

Regarding the Dutch housing market: IMHO it is the most overvalued housing market wordwide. Prices are up around 1000% over the last 20 years (or about 400-500% if you believe the RE mob). This is mostly the result of government intervention, the Dutch government spends 30 billion every year on homeowner subsidies (on the US scale that would be about 600 billion every year, go figure).

Now comes the tricky part: the Dutch government was expecting to post the lowest national debt number this year since the French revolution (for US viewers: that a long time ago). Instead of that, the national debt jumped to the highest level ever in just two months. And still counting … all the result of having to support some financial dumbo’s like ING. What happens when they run out of money to support the housing market?

Finance Minister Bos (from the labour party) said this week that he does not plan to support the housing market (that is crying for all sorts of bailout to prevent prices from falling). He says the market has been overvalued for years and lower prices might be a good thing (!). Our prime minister (who represents the housing-mob and farmer party) will not agree with that I guess, but still. I think they know they are running out of free money for homeowners.

this is tulipmania, back with a vengeance; it will end badly, just like the 1635 episode.

P.S. regarding subprime: we don’t have subprime in the Netherlands, if only because that is an english word. If you remove the 30 billion a year in homeowner / mortgage subsidies and tax deductions, the Dutch housing market is just as subprime as the US market at its top.

Just wait until the tide turns (when the money for these huge gov. subsidies runs out) and you will see how much subprime there really is.

Isn’t Holland that place over in Europe that we read about in Social Studies/ History back in grade school? The place with all the dykes?
Sort of like New Orleans, over here?

IF it is, then we can safely assume that Dutch Real estate is TRUELY underwater.

I wouldn’t be a anxious buyer, at any price,……global warming and all that stuff we keep hearing about.
Pretty soon, the whole place will be underwater.

diogenes:
yes - actually I live in Zeeland, the part that was flooded in 1953. Most of this area (except the dunes near the coast and some of the the old city centers) is below sea level. All the new housing developments are 1 to 5 meters below sea level; when they stop pumping the new homeowners get wet feet.

Latest forecast for sea level rise is 1.2 meters within the next 30 years. If that turns out to be correct, 2/3 of the country might be underwater by then. Increasing the dikes for full protection against such a rise would be next to impossible.

But the Dutch don’t worry, as long as their mortgages are not underwater they will keep partying, most politicians and sheeple here still assume RE only goes up. The government is considering mandatory flood insurance for every new homeowner though (nice business opportunity for insurance sharks like AIG?).

“If only we could talk to Stalin and let him know how bad things are, he would fix everything.”
- Russian peasants in the 1930s

“If only we could talk to Stalin and let him know how bad things are, he would fix everything.”
- Russian peasants in the 1930s

“If only we could talk to Obama and let him know how bad things are, he would fix everything.”
- American peasants in 2009

That’s a good one. Because Obama wants to lock people away without cause or trial, torture people, spy on his own citizens without oversight or warrant, dictate legislation without Congressional approval, lie about going to war..
Oh wait, that’s the guy we have now.

You go with the devil you know in office?

Arrrrrrrrrrrrrghhh….

Landlubbers!

“$24,000 a year is not lavish”

Compared to $0 it is.

“The only reason there is a problem is because GM knew these cost were there, yet did not set aside the money which would be needed.”

???
What kind of reasoning is this? Reasoning like this can explain just about any cash problem. And the tax payers are supposed to step in and make it right? Sounds like GM behaved like a FB to me.

Butterfinger can stick his finger up his a**. He needs to be retired along with Wagoner. I refuse to buy GM for two main reasons (Union terrorism and crappy cars). This applies to many people I know. GM can go bankrupt and a new car company can arise in a right-to-work state and then we can compete with Toyota, etc.

24,000 a year is not lavish, could you retire on that?

At $24,000 per year income, you would need $400,000 in invested capital earning 6% annually in returns. I don’t know about you, but I would love my company to provide $400K in retirement money on top of health benefits… Instead I get 3% match to my 401K contribution. Let’s say I work 20 years at this same firm. My company spent $60K over 20 years by providing a 3% match if I average $100K in pay and contribute 3%. Which would you take?

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. This country better wake up and realize that our standard of living is about to get crushed. Blame Free-traders and the Wall St. crowd who paid for the lobbyists and bought the politicians, but the good-paying jobs for the average American are gone. Want to survive? Better learn how to compete and out-innovate those foreigners who took your jobs…

I’m actually getting to the point where I’m in favor of a bridge loan with conditions to the Auto -makers . I’m in favor of giving the Auto companies time to scale down and go forward with energy saving products for the future . The Big Three are asking for a loan . The government is on the hook anyway for underfunded Insurance accounts on those government contracts anyway ,just as FDIC was underfunded . Just as the Banks and lenders were in a black-mailing position with bail-outs ,so are the Car Companies .

No doubt the fact that Corporations in general were able to function with low requirement from the government was a function of the Government catering to lobbyist who always want to take the profits of today and not provide for tomorrow . Union Contracts were a joke in the case of the Auto makers and many other Companies . The government allowed joe-six pack America to go into debt and borrow into the future also with crazy debt and lack of regulations

Interesting how Congress/Senate can give a blank check to Hank Paulson to save a industry that was at the root cause of financing a fake boom on faulty credit ,but the Auto -makers that just went along with that fake economy are considered outrageous for wanting to be saved .

Congress /Senate is tightening up the conditions with the Car Companies ,after being a loose goose with
Hank Paulson . Interesting how Wall Street thinks that its more important that those job losses are more important
than other States job losses . At least the Car Company CEO’s are able to answer a question ,and I found out that Congress and the Senate can really ask questions if they want to ,unlike they didn’t do with Paulson .

Yeah, screw workers who want decent health care and don’t want to live their retirement years in poverty.

I’d back a bailout plan where the government matches every dollar of bonus money returned to the company by executives, and not a penny more.

Hey Ed, that article is from 1993. What is $2,030 per month in 2008 dollars?

It looks like about $1500 a month.
http://www.uaw.org/contracts/07/gm/gm06.php
Luxury huh?

They also claimed in 2003 that the pension fund was taken care of;
http://www.forbes.com/2003/12/13/cz_jm_1213gm.html

But they may have made some bad investments since then. Might as well take it out on the retirees.

(insert image of said f22 being worked on in the field completely disassembled to change a $0.22 part)

I know a lot of people that won’t even look at a U.S. made car. Of course, some of them want the car companies bailed out. And they don’t see the irony in their position.

Toyota, Nissan and eurotrash sales volume all down.

Misguided.

Yeah, with the HELOC bubble over, everybody’s sales are down. But nobody else, foreign or domestic is talking about running out of cash and being liquidated in the first quarter of ‘09. Hey, if $25B was the all in bet that would save the automakers, many of us would think that the money was worth it. But that’s just the ante. And their hand isn’t good.

And Detroit sells XYZ as many 3/4 ton light trucks and medium duty trucks as Honda, Toyota and Nissan combined?

Oh yeah. That’s right. Japan doesn’t build 3/4 ton and medium duty trucks. BTW, no need to back yourself up with an alternate.

But Detroit is required to build small cars here (thanks to CAFE standards written to favor the domestic unions). The only reason light trucks haven’t weren’t dominated by the Japanese is that the US import duties includes one based on engine size.

How much have we spent on highways and interstates in the past 60 years?

How many road-related bond issues are outstanding?

Do any toll roads actually turn a profit?

Post-WWII America made a conscious policy choice to turn toward the automobile and away from light commuter rail and other modes of mass transportation.

That auto-centric focus must shift. And it will, eventually, whether we are willing participants or not.

Lots of telecommuting, small electric cars powered by nukes. Problem solved.

Telecommuting - now there’s a boondoggle. It allows for the worst service possible and then the jobs will get outsourced since the quality being provided is crap anyway. I am tired of the mindless, “let’s all work remotely” BS.

“Telecommuting - now there’s a boondoggle. It allows for the worst service possible and then the jobs will get outsourced since the quality being provided is crap anyway. I am tired of the mindless, “let’s all work remotely” BS.”

But spending countless hours on a blog while working “on location” is somehow great service? Just sayin’.

And how do you propose to get the basics into a large city? Trains are rather limited in scope, and trucks tend to use those same expanses that the SUV’s use.
The highway system was designed primarily as a defense mechanism, that was “allowed” to be used for every day use, sort of like the internet.
Cities would be the first to crumble if there is a major shortage of oil…

And how do you propose to get the basics into a large city?

Getting basics into a large city isn’t really the problem — major cities all have some combination of air, rail and water access for freight. Rail and water are highly efficient in terms of pounds moved per unit of fuel, and should see a resurgence.

The problem is distribution from major regional hubs to smaller cities and towns. In some cases, you’re right, the only realistic mode of transport is via roads.

In some cases, you’re right, the only realistic mode of transport is via roads. And how many areas of the USA were settled and are maintained only because of the use of petro-powered autos?

I disagree.

First, wage parity is going to be a lot higher than “1 bowl of rice a day.”

Second, by the time wage parity occurs for more complex jobs/tasks, it’s going to cost more for employers to move them and have them operating in China or India than back here or in Western Europe.

Third, have you ever tried working with (some very well educated, no doubt) Indians on the kinds of things that tech workers in Silicon Valley can do from their homes all the time?

I would suggest giving it a try and letting us know how it goes.

We really do just have too many people.

Of course.

The density of population in Shanghai, Japan and the Netherlands (the examples above) is far higher than in almost anywhere in the US.

Public transit works in NYC because of the density.

Public transit in San Francisco is (for the most part) terrible because it is very poorly run.

yes, pop. density is important. But public transport in low pop. areas in Netherlands and Germany used to be very good as well one generation ago. It can be done with clever design.
Probably one of the US problems is the urban sprawl that is (was?) missing in Europe. If you don’t have clear city centers, public transport becomes more of a problem.

we have similar problems in Netherlands.

Most opponents of wind power argue that windmills are ugly, while the huge towers that carry the power wires from the nuclear and coal stations are ‘very beautiful’.
I can understand that, if you make loads of money by working for a nuclear or coal power plant …

even for wind power farms that are far out at sea (like 20-40 miles), and only visible with binoculars on a very clear day, this seems to be a major issue. That is in a country where hardly any nature is left (except some small dog poop parks, and of course some city dwellers think modern farmland is ‘nature’), and where most people in new housing developments can count the cornflakes on the neighbours breakfast table …

A good part of the Netherlands was built by windpower; 20 years ago or so we were at the forefront of windpower development again. Thanks to all the stupid pro-big-energy regulations most windpower and solar companies moved office, and Netherlands is now a third world country for alternative energy, while neighbour Germany has taken the lead.

Prophetic effort.

Gold just made a nice trail run today

Right, and ALL derivatives contract are zero-sum because only party can be right at the end of the day.

That’s your global financial system right there.

So you don’t have a clue, and you’re calling me names? This is amusing.

And yes I should have been more specific in my original post.

I will try to be more lucid in the future to avoid your vehemence. Or maybe not.

Unfortunately, its not that different. For every MBS or CDO there was a counter-party and someone on the other side of the trade. They are still sorting that out to see what “nets” out. Many parties were on both sides so they cancel each other out -its what passed for risk management at the time. There will be “net” winners and losers, but in the end, every trade has a buyer and seller canceling each other out equaling a zero sum game.

Yes FPSS, one party can be right at the end of the day, BUT as the OP stated the loser gets bailed out by the big government which makes it something a tad different than a zero sum game, eh?

Also the winner doesn’t really make out that well either especially with all that counterparty risk floating around.

It’s a zero sum game if there is accountability and honesty. But it doesn’t work that way does it?

every trade has a buyer and seller canceling each other out equaling a zero sum game.

Except at the initial issuance of a security (bond, stock, preferred, etc.) where it’s the company that is raising capital from someone else.

All other secondary-market transactions and definitely ALL derivative transactions are zero-sum.

Yes FPSS, one party can be right at the end of the day, BUT as the OP stated the loser gets bailed out by the big government which makes it something a tad different than a zero sum game, eh?

Also the winner doesn’t really make out that well either especially with all that counterparty risk floating around.

It’s a zero sum game if there is accountability and honesty. But it doesn’t work that way does it?

Sorry if repost.

Pussy galore crosses the blue line, he shoots…

Stick save, and a Beauty!

Only if they give them the full amount. They are not.

They are taking writedown after writedown, turning from IB’s into bank-holding, and firing employees willy-nilly.

That’s a lot of money gone to money heaven.

They’ve lost a lot more than the puny printing being done.

And most of the counterparty losses are in offshore pension funds, etc. which you are not observing. Why do you think people are really ticked off? They dumped all the garbage on the foreigners.

Wait, are we approaching friendly terms here?

AIG is no offshore pension fund. I’m no expert (as you’ve so sagely pointed out) but I’m willing to bet all their recent begging at the gubment trough is to acquire more dough to cover their CDS exposure.

And I’m not arguing against deflation. I believe we will see a decent amount before the government over corrects which history has proven they most certainly will.

For every AIG they save, there are hundreds who are getting crowbarred, and not getting bailed out.

Look at CALPERS. Or even look at some of the airline companies. Even companies like Intuit got in on the game.

Or those school boards in WI and PA.

Everyone and their brother was speculating in the derivatives world where they had no business to be.

As I understand it it isn’t just AIG types that insured bonds, MBS ect. They may have sold the insurance contract to a Hedge Fund. Which assuming a sky high valuation for the contract borrowed money and invested it. Now the insured comes looking for a pay out. The Hedge Fund liquidates stock, investors in the Hedge fund decide to take their money out and next thing you know the Hedge fund can no longer pay the claims to the insured entity. Thus in this situation it is not a zero sum game. There is massive liquidation of stocks and the insured entity doesn’t get all the money it had anticipated.

dude,

I’m mostly here to exhibit my mind-spittle via a little creativity, please read too much into anything I say.

p.s.

I saw Mad Max 2 the day it was released, in Melbourne-way back when…

Still my favorite all-time movie chase scene, towards the climax of the film.

I haven’t seen it in a long time (since it came out basically.)

OK, time to get it from the library.

Saw it in the 2 buck CD pile at Wallymart yesterday. Discount mayhem. Almost free.

Not to date myself (meogamy?), but I remember video-tapes costing like $75-100, back in the day…

$100 B to FNM, FRE (and they still are going bankrupt), $140 B to AIG, $700 TARP to banks, Fed buying trillions of any old commercial paper, $250 B stimululus with another $500 coming in January. 25B to Automakers, with homebuilders right behind them (and plumbing contractors right behind them).

Is Mad Max really that far fetched anymore?

Gold is down 27% off of the high. Can’t say the same for the equity markets. And with trillion dollar deficits coming soon, how much is that dollar really worth?

As I see it, until the gov/market make the consumer feel secure and wealthy there will be deflation in all things that aren’t absolutely necessary no matter how much they give the banks. They may be able to cause inflation in basic food items ect but I just don’t see inflation in cars, electronics, furniture, big houses, air lines, clothes ect ect until you stop hearing about layoffs and cuts. That’s a long way off.

Precisely.

Who saw the miserable hotel stats the other day? Same with airlines.

And retail, of course, is on the fast ride to hell.

Hyperinflation is a definite. All it requires is:

1. Rapidly growing employment, leading to
2. Rapidly growing wages, with an expectation of
3. Rapidly growing product prices.

We are seeing this everyday here in sunny (but cold today, high of 61) Florida.

Rapidly growing wages Just where are you seeing this? Some other planet?

Hyperinflation definitely doesn’t require rapidly growing wages…

Did Mexicans wages keep up 1976-1992, when they had their bout with doubt?

Think “sarcasm”

When they bring back the depression CCC and pay entry level wages of $15 per hour

Exactly, Zimbabwe doesn’t exactly have high wages at the moment, yet wanna talk hyper-inflation? I totally defer to the deflation arguement, but seems that can change on a dime if our owners stop buying Treasuries.
Also: to a zero sum game; gold may not be needed in a madmax scenario, and arguements over what was the better bet, but still think a reasonable postion in PM’s at this point is a given, if not a ticket out of the thunderdome if it unwinds like many have predicted. …at the very least those couple of gold coins will buy a round of drinks,and a good meal at the end.

“Comment by aladinsane
2008-11-19 08:41:17

Not to date myself (meogamy?), but I remember video-tapes costing like $75-100, back in the day…”

DEFLATION!

Damn near everything in technology has done the plunge, price-wise.

I remember being in awe of the $200 calculator, which became the $15 calculator, back in the 70’s.

p.s.:

Make me the eduction czar, and i’ll bring back the #2 pencil to the classroom, and start to sharpen young minds that have dulled so very much, so quickly.

Why the government allowed places like AIG to make insurance bets without the money to back those bets is the great evil
behind the curtain . All the evils boil down to out of control
leverage and out of control Casino bets that were allowed ,and that goes to de-regulation and the Marker Makers turning the world into a leveraged gambling casino . I still think some of the stuff that went on was against standing law . For some reason the government want to save the system before they
look at liability .

“Why the government allowed places like AIG to make insurance bets without the money to back those bets is the great evil behind the curtain .”

Keep in mind that whoever is insuring your car won’t have the ability to pay if 50% of their clients get in an accident around the same time. Agreed though that the leverage was insane and should have been regulated.

Wiz, the govt has seen the culprit, and it is them. They deregulated a banking system that none of them can even begin to fathom.

You’ve been watching the congressional hearings on C-SPAN, so you’ve seen first-hand the “all act, no contact” hubris of our elected officials. For every congressman with an insightful question, there are a half a dozen or more asking things that they or their aides could google in seconds. Unfailingly, the dumb questioners rudely interrupt the responses with insincere behavior probably designed get them on their local news, showing them “fighting” for their constituents.

Ideas for Society 2.0 - have a minimum IQ requirement for those running for political office; put campaigning on a shoe-string budget cap (banning smear ads would save tens of millions alone); have opposing candidates duke it out on existing interview shows.

In debates, most modern politicians speak on a 6th or 7th grade level. The Lincoln Douglas debates averaged a 12th grade level for each side. If tv was around back then, would either candidate made it that far, using the flawed methods employed to groom candidate nowadays??

I read a report not too long ago that said the percentage of disposable income spent by American families on food and clothing had dropped in the last few decades.

I cannot recall by how much… though I would think some of this is attributable to cheap foreign labor.

Maybe I can find the report.

They are most definitely zero-sum.

Someone has to have loaned the money to leverage.

Let’s say hedge fund A and hedge fund B take opposite sides of the bet.

Hedge fund B can’t pay up. Then that claim gets transferred to the prime brokerage unit of one of the banks that loaned hedge fund B the money in the first place.

The claim follows the chain down cascading through the money-borrowing chain until someone pays.

Why do you think they are so terrified? They know that you can easily have claims that cascade through the entire system causing full havoc.

Lake Placid “is booming compared to” Fort Edward, Whitehall, North Creek, Wells ……

Essex county sales down 40% from 2005-2007 (not to mention YTD2008 decline), the only grocery store in town out of business yet it’s booming?

http://www.nysar.com/pdfs/annualsales.pdf

Time to get honest.

Ex,

Lake Placid is a village of 50-75 nice stores, some ridiculously nice Inns and shops, a busy Main Street, tourist center, Olympic Development and a ton of state support. I am not saying its “booming”, but “compared to” the ghost towns I have listed, I’ll stand by that 100%. Also to put my statement back in its original context, would you not agree that buying a sled in one of those down and out towns is likely to be much less expensive then in Lake Placid? Granted this “apple” may be rotting, but compared to the rotten, decaying, maggot infested “oranges” I listed (and dozens of others in that area), it still tastes better.

Yes I would agree that a better deal on a used machine can be had going up into Clinton county.

Look, as far as RE, you’re comparing a turd to a turdlier turd and you can make that EQUAL comparison from St. Lawrence county NY all the way east through Chittenden, Caledonia counties in VT to Grafton/Coos/Carroll counties to the Maine border and all of the state of ME and you end up in the same place you left off; A secular bear economy… a long term state of deterioration. And please let up on the ghost town BS. If there are any ghost towns in the dead of winter, it IS Lake Placid. You can shoot a cannon down Main St at noon any day of the week and never hit anyone. I know because I’ve been there and watched this play out for decades. Were you there in the 90’s? How about the 80’s? And the 70’s? I WAS. You’re the new kid on the block with a speculative bent that the future is bright in that one little spot. You’re going to find how false that is. It may take time for you see it but it’s already happening irrespective of your unwillingness to look.

Ex, you take things way too seriously. I don’t work for the Chamber of Commerce for Lake Placid, and don’t have great hopes for their future either. However, anyone with any realistic perspective whatsoever would absolutely have to prefer downtown Lake Placid to ANY of those towns I mentioned. Its not even close. At least Warrensburg has a little better commercial district and I intentionally did not include it. None of these places are going to fare well, but when “compared to” one another Lake Placid is far superior. If you don’t see that, I think you are the one who is not really looking or being honest. I don’t care for the Mirror Lake Inn, Lake Placid Club and they may well fail, but Fort Edward and North Creek and those other towns will NEVER EVER have that kind of investment in their entire downtown, nevermind a host a couple of Olympics.

All I said was “compared to” and if

I don’t take your “it’s different here” talk seriously and I doubt anyone else here puts much weight in it but they are your words, not mine. Your comparison is akin to comparing two convicted felons by suggesting one felons violation of the law is somehow more acceptable than the other. They’re both felons and felonious crimes are typically heinous and rationalizing one is a very slippery slope.

If I’ve heard “keene valley is a diamond in the rough” (or variations of that) once I’ve heard it a thousand times over 30 some years and your characterization of it is no different. It is a speculative fantasy that has never materialized and based on my lifetime of living and working in the Champlain Valley on both sides of the border, it never will. Five generations of my extended family(yes, some of them are realturds, my mom and dad sold RE and retired at the peak of the last bubble circa 1990) have been separating the same endless stream of metro fools from their money in the Greens and ADK’s and there is no indication that will change anytime in the future. They sell grossly inflated junk and then buy it back 4-10 years later only to re-sell it during the next RE mania. It so happens that the current round of victims was the largest we’ve ever seen. And they don’t understand how bad they got ripped………..yet.

Not sure I’m making my point clear, but let’s just say I don’t think we are really disagreeing about all that much. I wasn’t claiming it was different, only that LP and those other towns are much different. If anything the folks who bought in Lake Placid will fall further/harder and with much more $$ lost. All I was saying is that LP is a much nicer town then the others, not commenting on the r/e market. Perhaps we’ll have to agree to disagree. Off to bed….

The Californian equivalent of a snowmobile would be his-and-hers jet-skis.

I must have seen a few dozen pairs willing to be divorced from their owners, both sitting forlorn in a trailer-for sale sign, on the road-the past year.

On my 3.5 mile “commute” from my home to office (country road - 2 stop signs, zero traffic lights) there are 3 snowmobile trailers, with snowmobiles for sale. One even has a tiny little child size quad for sale as well. The Escalade is still in the driveway. Must have been a lucky kid to have such a toy, just hope the parents are punishing the kid on the way down… I won’t buy from them as I know how they treat their stuff.

meant are NOT punishing the kid….

outcry from the RE/Wall St Mobsters to do just that ??

Because its a simple way to support prices by eliminating inventory…Just let the market work…Some number between $1.00 and ?$ it will sell…Just saw a reasonable deal in Sac/Cali…1600 sq. ft. house rented for $1200. per month for $99k…

this is common practice in the Netherlands, where officially there is still a serious housing shortage (although in reality I don’t think there is any shortage; possibly there is a shortage of smaller/affordable homes).

Bulldozing old (cheaper) homes has proven to be an easy way to prop up home prices. The owners often get paid huge subsidies by the government if they do this, and instead of the old homes they then build McMansions for the happy few (subsidized by the taxpayer).

If you keep removing the cheap stuff and only build at the upper end of the scale, the median home price will automagically keep rising.

“Because its a simple way to support prices by eliminating inventory”

Nope, cannot work. Prices, in the long run, are supported by wages. The end.

at bluprint:
Clearstation dot com has an excellent education section and decent charts.

rob

I thunk it was prest idigit ation.

Height of sland?

Maybe this Christmas, when I’m back on the farm, I will celebrate the season by stealing a tractor and driving it around and around the orchards again. Hmmmm, you know what, that sounds like the start of a good tradition.

I’m big on traditions.

‘Except it didn’t teach me how to drive anything but a tractor.’

I mean, how many vehicles require you to be able to pull the grindy groaning lever thing to raise and lower the front bucket scoop, or else the rear rake thing?
Not enough vehicles. Every car should come with a scoop and a baling rake, is what I say. Or, if not every car, just MY car.
Ahhhhhh, if only…then everyone else’s morning commute to Olympia would be even MORE exciting than it already is with me on the road. Hahahahaha!

Every car should come with a scoop and a baling rake, is what I say. Or, if not every car, just MY car.

I think I’d fit mine with hay forks. Otherwise, it’s a great idea.

Grandpa would take the tractor and tie five sleds one right after another and take all of us kids for a ride. All of us wanted to ride on the last sled. Grandpa loved to play crack the whip also.

I’m all smiles. Brings back memories of tire gouges that filled with water and froze over… how long can you slide before you endo? Those criss cross wheel treads always got me in the end.

IIUC…

John Deere - green.
International Harvester - red.
New Holland - blue.

Nope, I am just a coward and only risk what I can afford to forget about. 3X ETF’s are good to short and short the inverse against it. Then you pick up the whipsaw effects of 6:1 when it goes against the buyer. The 3X are great for most people to lose moneys even faster. Since I don’t have to worry about margins since I rarely (interday only) go over 8:1 and usually keep my margin under 4:1

Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity¤
Markus K. Brunnermeiery
Princeton University
Lasse Heje Pedersenz
New York University
This version: June 2008

We provide a model that links an asset’s market liquidity i.e., the ease with which it is traded and traders’ funding liquidity i.e., the ease with which they can obtain funding. Traders provide market liquidity, and their ability to do so depends on their availability of funding….

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~lpederse/papers/Mkt_Fun_Liquidity.pdf

If you can enjoy working through the math it makes this paper wonderful, if you want to understand why I look for liquidity first, then you will get it. A fascinating aspect of the paper is that it demonstrates why traders sell when the market is high and buy when it is low. The traders act in this manner because of margin limitations. i.e. It is in my best interest to buy stocks than to short stocks at this time because of increased capital requirements for new short positions.

A big warning on this, good companies can always borrow money. Good companies are currently net short.

It’s even worse: My figures don’t include dividends.

In the long run, stocks really don’t have any real underlying value other than their dividend stream, or the dividend stream of companies that may take them over.

Owning non-dividend-paying equities may be looked at as absurd in the not-too-distant future.

Exactly - I was going to mention dividends.

What most people don’t realize is that in a normal market - stock prices generally should keep up with inflation, at best! Only when you factor in dividends does the stock market beat inflation handily in the long term.

W/regards to GDP comparison - keep in mind that the GDP of the past 5 years or so has been grossly distorted on the upside due to home equity extraction. When taking that into account - stock prices are even more of a bubble than even the second glance.

Damn — I don’t really want to hear this. How about a pitch for fascism while you are at it?