Bits Bucket For November 29, 2008
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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I’ve been reading “The Collapse of Complex Societies” by Tainter, and it’s fascinating subject matter.
He lists 11 major factors that have caused collapse in the past:
(the parenthesis are my thoughts)
1. Depletion or cessation of a vital resource or resources on which the society depends.(water-oil)
2. The establishment of a new resource base. ($7.5 Trillion in giveaways & guarantees)
3. The occurrence of some insurmountable catastrophe. (Katrina)
4. Insufficient response to circumstances (ongoing)
5. Other complex societies (the rest of the world)
6. Intruders (terrorists)
7. Class conflict, social contradictions, elite mismanagement or misbehavior (USA, only more so)
8. Social disfunction (USA)
9. Mystical factors (the rise & fall of evangs politically)
10. Chance concatenation of events (global financial meltdown)
11. Economic factors (in spades)
“concatenation”
It’s been a while since I’ve had to google a word
I love this sort of thinking, it creates the social moods that produces market sell-offs.
Be sure to share your thoughts with all your friends.
King,
In a previous life, you would have loved buying stocks on the cheap in the Mayan stock exchange-as things were crumbling, methinks.
But you have given us no evidence of this collapse rather than intuit it through your “divine” brilliance.
Keep strokin’ those ingots. Maybe one of them will even give you a “release”.
Our past is our present is our future.
RE: Our past is our present is our future.
From simple sheep to savage pigs.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081129/D94OJ4NG0.html
Thank you for posting this Hd.
I’ve read many articles/accounts on what happened, but to many questions were unanswered.
I’m livid - shoppers were angered because the store closed for a few hours!
Snip
…Damour, 34, of Queens, was taken to a hospital, where he was pronounced dead around 6 a.m., police said. The exact cause of death has not been determined…
For the love of - grrrr.
Morons!
This gentleman was trampled to death by a mega corporation creating a mania!
Another pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey moment.
Whocouldhaveknown.
Sigh,
Leigh
You didn’t understand “Collapse” and now you start this book.
-
-
“It rubs the lotion on its skin. It does this whenever it is told.
Mister… my family will pay cash. Whatever ransom you’re askin’ for, they pay it.
It rubs the lotion on its skin or else it gets the hose again.
[to his dog, Precious]
Yes, it will, Precious, won’t it? It will get the hose!”
“Another glorious Sierra day in which one seems to be dissolved and absorbed and sent pulsing onward we know not where. Life seems neither long nor short, and we take no more heed to save time or make haste than do the trees and stars. This is true freedom, a good practical sort of immortality.”
John Muir
“Shitter’s full”
Eddie
lol!!!!!!!!
In a previous life, you would have loved buying stocks on the cheap in the Mayan stock exchange-as things were crumbling, methinks.
Now we’ve skipped past Argentina, leapt past Weimar, and are on a crash course full-on Mayan Meltdown?
At least we’ll leave some interesting ruins.
(Laugh.)
Yeah, the examples are rapidly escalating in scale.
You need to amp up the fear meme if you’re gonna peddle something. Buy the Preciousssssssssss or else we enter the Mayan collapse like that really bad Mel Gibson movie.
“bad Mel Gibson movie.”
You’re going to have to be more specific.
We’re clearly headed for Kevin Costner territory, too. Be very, very specific with that as well.
Kevin Costner?!?
Be afraid. Be very very afraid!
LOL.
Yeah, and how’s that gold Comex call working out for you?
up $10.20.
OMG, like, that should totally like given you a like a total gold-gasm!
The constant bickering between you two is very uncomfortable. Please continue!
I had a big woody yesterday, what a broad she is.
245 feet high and 11 feet wide.
up nearly EUR 50 from previous week (that’s +9%; so I’m not complaining).
Did you miss the part where Tainter admits that “innovation” is how societies overcome difficulties and continue to thrive despite the ever-present negative influences?
Can you say “financial innovation”?
I knew you could…
6. Intruders (terrorists)
The US, of course, has seen fewer domestic casualties per capita from foreign aggression than almost every other country in the world.
All time high is Poland I think, and they’re still around.
“The Wall Street bombing was a terrorist incident that occurred at 12:01 p.m. on September 16, 1920, in the Financial District of New York City. Thirty-eight were killed and 400 persons were injured by the blast.”
Clearly, “terrorists” didn’t exist before 9/11. The whole word “terrorist” is so stupid. Al Qaeda isn’t a “terrorist” group. They are a loosely formed army. And there is no such thing as a “suicide bomber”. That is the dumbest term ever. Those are precision guided bombs. They are military attacks. It just so happens that the guidance system is a human being and not a missile.
I hate the term “War on Terror”. It’s as vague as “climate change”. We can’t win something that we don’t even know how to properly define. But with the devils in charge, I don’t think victory is the goal, anyway. War is big business. “Terror” is good for sales. We will always have threats of attack on the home front. And we will always have incompetent leaders that have no idea what they are doing but you can bet their friends will profit. I’m looking at you, Mr. Cheney.
[applause]
-
Right on NYCityBoy!
Its interesting how the India government immediately said that this was not India’s “9/11″.
Of course, they may still invade Pakistan.
From our family onsite Mumbai commentator, it was India’s 9/11, whether the government wants to admit it or not.
This is the first time in seven years I’ve read something about “terrorists” that made sense. Yeah! “Loosely formed army.” Exactly. They wish they could be the Wehrmacht. But they’re not.
I’m with you, yogurt. It’s not the attacks, but rather the reaction to the attacks. We (the US) have been acting like scared little kids; every time some government ‘official’ steps up the scare factor for political reasons, we fold. Look what we have given up here in the US of A and what we seem willing to give up - the Constitution that made us a great country. They haven’t beaten us because they ‘hate freedom’, we are beating ourselves. It’s time we stopped acting like chickens with our heads cut off and just ignored them as a real force. I don’t mean not chase them and capture them but rather realize that by being scared we are handing them the victory they cannot achieve themselves.
There ya go — I guess you have proved that U.S. collapse is imminent…
Not just the USA, that scenario fits most every other industrialized country as well…
OK, then — I guess you proved that global collapse is imminent. Back to the stone age we go.
stoned age.
I would agree with most of your factors, except for Katrina and Intruders (terrorists). I’m in Houston and what happened during Katrina was completely blown out of proportion. I know that sounds harsh but it is true - most of the victims just wanted a handout and are still expecting a handout - it might be considered an example of social dysfunction or class conflict, but not an insurmountable catastrophe compared to something like the Myanmar storm or boxing day tsunami.
I don’t think terrorism is even on the radar here any more, we haven’t had any kind of attack in 7 years and while that one was horrific I bet most Americans have no idea even where Mumbai is or what is going on in the rest of the world. I think the “terrorists” are out there in vastly smaller numbers than those in power would have us believe and they are not nearly as sophisticated as they would have us believe.
Also the rise of evangelicals as a political movement I think has come to an end or nearly so; it is a baby boomer phenomenon and will end with that generation; those of my generation (X or Y depending on which definition you look at) who are professing Christians (and I am one of them) are generally not Republican consumerist conformists like our parents.
“those of my generation (X or Y depending on which definition you look at) who are professing Christians (and I am one of them) are generally not Republican consumerist conformists like our parents.”
Hypocrisy hunting and a social justice focus is the new face of the Church. The damage and lies of distortionists like Falwell, Haggard and Dobson will take decades to repair. And too many people in the Church are willing to stand in the way of letting the Church get used by an angry, cynical, greedy element of a political party whos interest is only in growing the size of the bank accounts of the wealthy elite.
“And too many people in the Church are willing to stand in the way of letting the Church get used by an angry, cynical, greedy element of a political party whos interest is only in growing the size of the bank accounts of the wealthy elite.”
Isn’t it a good thing if people are willing to stand in their way? I’d say not enough are willing (yet).
Oh, I forgot to add, another great book along these lines is Collapse (and Guns, Germs and Steel) by Jared Diamond
They are great books if you have the capacity to read them without the necessity of having to make them fit into preconceived hobbyhorses that ride and swing back and forth as you sigh “precious.”
Spain and then England had pretty big empires and they seem to have come out of it ok.
Just how complex were they compared to us?
“Spain and then England had pretty big empires and they seem to have come out of it ok.”
Spain was a disaster. Napoleon learned how messed up Spain was. Or were you referring to Spain of 1938? That was really some miraculous time. The rule of Franco was pretty sweet, too. But I think the gigantic housing bubble of the 21st century will really put them on history’s pedestal.
Is England really out of it? I think you are writing history too soon.
the Netherlands and Portugal also had huge empires before Spain and England had theirs. They are relatively small and open countries, so there is not much left of the empires now But you can still find the remains all over the world (in language, architecture, economy/finance etc).
England and Spain are the EU countries that are struggling the most at the moment; the final outcome is still undertermined. I think part of their current struggle is related to their past of being an invincible empire.
But Ireland, the EU’s other big bubble state, is in the opposite position, being a former imperial possession.
Hubris has many sources.
Hey, Nostradamus, Can you please give us a date for the next coming judgment day? When predicting disaster, it’s important to give a day, otherwise it’s pretty useless. Wait….wait…it’s coming to me…ZOMG….I feel it! Yes! MARK MY WORDS: Something bad is going to happen in the next 6 months. You’ll see!
Not too much time left on this one,though:
Comment by aladinsane
2008-04-04 08:17:40
The Dollar is going to be severely devalued in the not too distant future, I expect a 50% reduction by year’s end.
the dude knowstradamus.
The Dollar is going to be severely devalued in the not too distant future, I expect a 50% reduction by year’s end
Against what?
April 21, 2011 is Judgment Day.
Hilarious! Got anything else like this, aladinsane?
Why is it that this reminds me of Tarot card readers on late nite T.V. commercials?
Here’s my littleman. By the way this makes it waaayyyy easy to haggle. It’s much easier to get a lower price or say, “but what about my family?” when you’re holding a baby.
I went from a “cheap jerk” to a “smart guy that’s being prudent.”
http://i117.photobucket.com/albums/o72/muggyFL/IM_17.jpg
Also, my fams in looking for some tires for one of our whips, after that, the Muggy family economic engine is shutting down for 2009.
Retailers take note.
Oooh, yet another American “consumer”.
“the Muggy family economic engine is shutting down for 2009.”
I don’t get this attitude, on this blog. I can see not liking mindless drone consumerism. But I’m not shutting down my buying for anybody. I can’t think of anything I want but if something should come up that I want, and can easily afford, then I will buy it. If it will make my life better without risking my economic well being then it is mine.
That is the way we lived in the 70s. That is the way we will be living again, soon enough. We didn’t stop buying because we were poor. We bought what we could afford to make our lives better. This, “I’m not buying anything attitude” is something you would expect from a constipated 4-year old.
“I’m not buying anything attitude”
I think you misunderstood that post. After tires, I won’t need anything. When life happens, my family pays up; it relates to my post the other day where I was thinking about how bad it must be out there (in 2008 I purchased a car, computer, had a baby… not small ticket items).
The thing is, we don’t need anything.
We’re in agreement: you shot the wrong messenger for a misinterpreted message.
Muggy-
Cute littleman. That age is false advertising!
“That age is false advertising!”
What do you mean, his size? People think he’s 18mos. He’s about 10mos.
Nope. He’s under 13yo. (the teenager ) BTW, he’s adorable, and does look older .
“Nope. He’s under 13yo. (the teenager ) BTW, he’s adorable, and does look older.”
Gotcha. Thanks for the compliments.
For those of you who don’t have children and are planning on someday starting a family, it is a really cool thing.
A great new way of life.
Some do not want children - and I understand their choice.
He’s adorable!
Mine’s 23 and I love him so!
Congrats!
Leigh
He’s a cutie! Enjoy him while you can, they grow up to fast! Give little muggy a kiss on the forehead for me.
Here’s my littleman. By the way this makes it waaayyyy easy to haggle.
Congratulations, he’s a good lookin’ feller.
I’ve also noticed that cute baby can get you free or reduced price stuff — our baby boy has been workin’ it, too.
Oh, my GOSH, Muggy, that is such an absurdly adorable child! Good job, man.
“Oh, my GOSH, Muggy, that is such an absurdly adorable child! Good job, man.”
Thanks.
You should hear him curse no-doc loans, HELOCs and Pet Essay Writers. AND, he’s already figured out he and Snaith speak the same language (ga, gee, go-go *fart*, d-d-d-duh, *pants-fills* de-de-deee).
I’m raising him right.
Plus, he’s awfully cute.
You have to appreciate the irony of a minimum wage temporary worker being trampled to death by frenzied shoppers at a Wal-Mart in the suburbs on the day after Thanksgiving.
I refuse to watch the news, I get all my info from the Internet. Did this really happen?
How about that rival shooting at the Palm Desert (Palm Springs, Ca. area) at the Toys R Us. Two thugs, two guns, and a lot of innocent shoppers in harms way. Glad they killed each other. Now, if their female trash widows would do the same.
What do you call two gangbangers killing each other?
A good start.
Before they offed each other these two were probably upstanding consumers.
Congress needs to act right now to make up for their lost purchasing power.
takingbets,
Yes
May we all realize again how fragile and sacred life is. May God comfort his family this season.
And may we all realize to stay the f— away from Wal-Mart on Black Friday.
That was outrageous. I hate those wait-in-line-Black-Friday people. They look like total idiots racing each other thru the door at 5am.
Speaking of Black Friday - I’m thinking it was kind of a bust. I went to my local Wal*Mart at around 3pm yesterday just for errands sake. While there, I went to electronics because I’ve been toying with the idea of getting a Wii and my folks gave me cash for my birthday. They had at least a half dozen Wiis (so much for everyone saying how they’ll be so hard to find again this year). I bought one. Love it. Not a video game person, but damn the Wii sports are fun. My 4-1/2 year old picked it up immediately and he’s actually somewhat competitive to play against! (Guess that is kind of a slam on me.)
Anyway, the stores around me just didn’t seem crowded like a usual Black Friday should be. What did everyone else see?
The same. Went to Target on Long Island at 10am. It’s my nephew’s bday today and I always forget to get the kid a present(so close to Thanksgivivng and all) the parking lot was literally half empty (or half full…whatever floats your boat) we walked in, grabbed some Hot Wheels, checked out at one of the many vacant checkout lines and walked out.
8 minutes flat.
Missoula MT was balls the wall, unfortunately. I stupidly went to Best Buy like it was any other day looking for good audio headphones…guess those are a thing of the past for consumers anyway. Place was a madhouse. The whole retail strip here was crazy even though things are slowing down in construction.
I went to the local Cabelas for the 6 AM opening. I picked up a cheap rifle, 500 rounds of ammo, a pair of switchblade knives, and a meat grinder. One of my friends asked me “are you planning to reshoot one of the scenes from ‘Fargo’?”
Cabelas had the crowd control well in hand. They used police tape to cordon off a long slender line, and had staff walk up and down handing out coupons for the really limited items. No panic there. Although it did take until 9 AM to get out of there due to the paperwork required when purchasing firearms.
May I say that I approve of your purchases. Except you should have also bought some candy.
A bunch of slacker trees standing around, that’s what I saw. I didn’t go shopping, nowhow. I went out in the forest to soothe my aching brains, as Thanksgiving celebrations were a bit hard on the Olynoggin. I brought a great big brightly colored blanket out with me and laid on the ground like a grumpy orange burrito for a bit, staring upward and humming prettily.
I could have seen more trees than were actually there, because my vision was blurry. Hahahaha!
Then I went inside and lit a cozy little fire and fiddled around alllll dayyyyy.
You know, I cannot think of a single thing I need to go shopping for. Maybe another handgun and more candy?
“Hi mom, it’s me. Yeah.. the interview at Walmart went perfect. Started yesterday. It’s such an easy job. All I do is smile and say “Hello” as people walk in…”
That WalMart is about 100 yards from the NYC border. I would not assume that those shoppers are suburbanites.
Warning signs of hyperinflationary currency collapse are:
1) Prices drop (deflation) in terms of gold
2) Open interest declines in futures market (due to loss of trust)
3) Backwardation occurs in gold futures (due to fears of default)
4) Physical gold supply gets tight
(All these warning signs have now taken place.)
What happens next is:
1) Backwardation and calls for delivery destroy the gold futures market.
2) Gold goes to infinity and dollar to zero.
3) Sellers of goods (food, oil etc) start demanding gold as payment.
4) Gold becomes the new reserve currency due to lack of alternatives (I have also been predicting this)
Other Interesting Ideas suggested by Antal E. Fekete
1) This hyperinflationary collapse will be different from all other periods of hyperinflation, because this time the entire world is using fiat currencies. With no one on the gold standard, no currency is safe, and all paper currencies will hyperinflate together (although at different rates).
3) Without either the dollar or gold to act as an “universally acceptable medium of exchange” worldwide trade will halt and the world will starve.
2) To prevent this, countries like China, India, Iran, will produce an enormous amount of gold bullion to function as medium for international trade after the dollar’s collapse.
Warning signs of hyperinflationary currency collapse are:
You forgot the most obvious ones: high interest rates, rising commodity prices, a flight to real assets (e.g. RE) and a falling currency.
Where are they?
“…To those who don’t believe in “Peak Oil,” please note that regardless of all other conditions, estimates, theories, etc., the cheap-and-easy-to-get oil will soon be consumed. Every other form of fossil fuel will be costly to extract and refine. …” The average price of a bbl of oil in 2007 was $70; the average price of a bbl in 2008 is over $95. The average utility bill in Jan 2009 will be 20% higher than Jan 2008.
“WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. food prices will rise by at least 7 percent in 2009 because of higher feed costs for chickens, hogs and cattle, said a group of food-industry economists on Thursday.
It would be the third year in a row that food prices rose faster than the overall U.S. inflation rate. Food inflation is the highest since 1990.
“The sizable increase in the cost of producing food has not been fully passed on to the consumer,” said private consultant Bill Lapp. He foresaw food inflation of 7 percent-9 percent in 2009.
During a teleconference, economists from the National Chicken Council and the consultancy Farm Econ said food inflation could be 7 percent-8 percent. The teleconference was arranged by a group of major foodmakers….” Reuters Nov 6 2008 and “…USDA left unchanged its forecast for food prices during 2008. Currently, prices are expected to rise 5.5 percent this year, marking the largest increase in two decades….” Reuters Nov 25 2008
and on the entertainment front
Movie ticket sales are down 4%, Movie ticket revenues are up 4.5%
Deflation is the general drop in ALL GOODS AND SERVICES not selective goods and items. To Cherry pick items is not evidence of deflation. Enjoy the brief respite offered through disinflation.
Pay no attention whatsoever to the trillions of dollars destroyed over the past year or so.
Pay no mind to the trillions of dollars held over seas by countries that import food and export finished goods to the US. Pay no attention to the trillions of dollars additionally guaranteed by the government. Pay no attention to the fact that even with the drop in crude, the US will still import almost $1T more next year than it will export. Pay no attention to the fact that China’s $600T expansion is being spent in Japan, Korea, Brazil and Africa - the US does not export China’s wants and needs.
If you don’t have the dollars to pay for necessities other countries do.
Really?!?
Did you try dividing the size of the Chinese “hoard” by the size of their population?
I have just one thing to say about economists - Subprime is contained!
What will the average cost of oil be in 2009?
As fuel prices have declined so precipitously, has there really been enough time for that to be reflected in cost of ag. inputs?
the word in Europe is that Ag costs are up sharply, despite the recent crash in oil prices.
And despite the strong decline in Ag commodities I still have to see the first real pricecuts in the supermarket.
The only commodity that went down a lot in Europe is petrol; I suspect this is the result of political pressure, to convince the sheeple that inflation is low. Over the last days I have seen many news stories to the effect that ‘inflation had its biggest drop in 50 years’ or something like that. Good for the ECB, so they can lower rates again. But there is no sign of that if you check prices for everyday stuff and services …
other example: Dutch producer prices were up 12% last month in Euro value; but actual volume was down 1%. The increase is purely inflation.
In Netherlands utility bills will be higher 20-25% next year too; prices are determined by some average value, so they will go up despite the recent crash in oil prices.
Hoz, I am not sure how much you can count on rising food prices as an indicator of an overall inflation. IMHO food in USA is VERY cheap compared to other developed countries. The rise of food prices might be more of a structural adjustment rather than pure inflation – higher prices for things you need, lower for things you want.
“…higher prices for things you need, lower for things you want.”
That is called disinflation, not deflation. An enormous difference that causes billions of dollars to change hands.
Deflation is ALL THINGS GOING DOWN IN PRICE, not just selected items.
Do not confuse temporary price drops as is occurring in oil and commodities with deflation. Do you really believe oil will be $54/bbl or lower in 5 yrs or is it more likely to be $100/bbl?
Agree. I am not saying that there is no inflation. I am just on the cautious side when trying to extrapolate the inflation in food to the overall inflation.
“4) Gold becomes the new reserve currency due to lack of alternatives (I have also been predicting this)”
5) Gold ownership becomes outlawed in the U.S., just like it was in the 1930s
6) Gold ownership also becomes outlawed in other OECD countries, in the interest of maintaining government fiat over currencies
And a new fiat currency is issued (see Germany, Year 0), and the dance begins again.
You know there’s a certain gloating element to these continuous prognostications of doom that is really starting to get boring.
“…continuous prognostications…”
They might make more sense to you if you think of them as a continuous sales pitch to buy physical gold.
I for one could not care less if anyone buys PM’s. To each his own.
They’re here just to push their gold. The gold-dealer is the worst.
Oh I want people to buy gold. I own shares in gold mining companies.
Who made money on Beanie Babies?
The middle men and the manufacturers, obviously.
‘Who made money on Beanie Babies?’
Well, lessee…last summer at a church rummage sale I beheld a whole tabletop covered in donated Beanie Babies, as fresh as daisies and unplayed with, each available for the princely sum of a quarter.
Those sweet, white-haired, righteous old ladies probably raked it in over those collectors items. Probably made, like, jeeze, at LEAST 4 whole dollars.
Ain’t that the truth!
Spreading notions of Gloom & Doom with the goal of profiting from innuendo is a classless way to make money, IMO. No different than the tactics undertaken by kool aid drinkers.
Whatever happened to investing for profits based on some semblance of study and rumination rather than b.s.’ing your neighbor? Seems like a John Hausman quote is needed just about now.
Hyperinflation
1. The general population prefers to keep its wealth in non-monetary assets or in a relatively stable foreign currency. Amounts of local currency held are immediately invested to maintain purchasing power.
2. The general population regards monetary amounts not in terms of the local currency but in terms of a relatively stable foreign currency. Prices may be quoted in that foreign currency.
3. Sales and purchases on credit take place at prices that compensate for the expected loss of purchasing power during the credit period, even if the period is short.
4. Interest rates, wages and prices are linked to a price index and the cumulative inflation rate over three years approaches, or exceeds, 100%.
-
Do not see any of this.
Also, I strongly agree with the Prof.
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-11-29 07:08:46
“4) Gold becomes the new reserve currency due to lack of alternatives (I have also been predicting this)”
5) Gold ownership becomes outlawed in the U.S., just like it was in the 1930s
6) Gold ownership also becomes outlawed in other OECD countries, in the interest of maintaining government fiat over currencies
You forgot to add “environmental laws in the US will be curtailed to permit recovery of gold in the US west and Alaska.”
Chic poverty. Coming soon, to neighborhoods near you…
Bill Bonner
Provided as a courtesy of Agora Publishing & The Daily Reckoning
Nov 28, 2008
Other Americans may take the day off. But not us… not here at the headquarters of The Daily Reckoning. We’ve got some reckoning to do.
But let us take a moment to bow our heads and offer this Prayer of Thanksgiving…
Thank you, good Lord, for everything.
We are still alive. We are still solvent.
Help us stay that way. If not both, at least the former.
Lead us not into temptation. Keep us in gold and cash until this is over.
And thank you for bringing the man called Obama to the White House… he might not be any better, but he could hardly be worse; or could he?
Okay, we’ve said our prayers… now, down to business…
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/bonner/bonner112808.html
The Numbers: What are the federal government’s sources of revenue?
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/background/numbers/revenue.cfm
“…Individual income taxes and payroll taxes now account for four out of every five federal revenue dollars. Corporate income taxes contribute another 15 percent. Excise taxes, estate and gift taxes, customs duties, and miscellaneous receipts (earnings of the Federal Reserve System and various fees and charges) make up the balance. The composition of tax revenue has changed markedly over the past half century, with payroll taxes contributing an increasing, and corporate income and excise taxes a decreasing, share of the total, but the share provided by individual income taxes has remained roughly constant….
Revenue from the corporate income tax fell from between 5 and 6 percent of GDP in the early 1950s to 2.7 percent of GDP in 2007….”
the share provided by individual income taxes has remained roughly constant….
But the distribution has not. The wealthy pay a much lower % of payroll and income taxes than they used to.
How was your Thanksgiving? Better than this I hope.
Fron the Bradenton Herald, 11-29
TAMPA — A Tampa woman is behind bars for chasing after a Thanksgiving dinner guest with a machete.
Forty-six-year-old Annette Jenkins is facing aggravated assault charges. She’s being held on $2,000 bond.
Police were called to her home late Thursday night when her brother arrived with a woman. The hostess reportedly waved the machete at the woman while yelling, “If you don’t get out, I’ll kill you.”
No one was injured.
Well, no one was killed. Where’s the fun in that?
That’s like a routine, paint-by-numbers kinda story.
kill-joy?
If you wanted to see people get killed, you should have gone on a Black Friday shopping spree.
I don’t want to see people killed. I just think that the bar is set too low for these “human interest” stories.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Hank Paulson trampled by a Wallmart crowd. Not necessarily killed, mind you, but maybe just put in a permanent vegetative state.
I see Hank more as Lex Luthor wielding a bazooka that shoots kryptonite @ $uperman.
“Police were called to her home late Thursday night when her brother arrived with a woman. The hostess reportedly waved the machete at the woman while yelling ‘If you don’t get out, I’ll kill you’.”
Her BROTHER arrived with a woman. Imagine how she’s react if it were her HUSBAND who brought home a woman.
Imagine if her HUSBAND had brought home a MAN.
Where’s the imagination around here, I ask you?
That happened to an old and very naive ex-girlfriend of mine. Needless to say she got a divorce from the guy.
And were YOU that guy?
Actually no. She came from a bible-thumper family and had real hangups about sex. She dumped me because of my interests…she married the gay guy since he didn’t demand much from her. Too bad about the kid they had though. I’ll bet she grows up confused about life.
I bet you she (= the kid) grows up wiser than both of her parents combined.
Tell us more about these “interests”.
Mayflower descendant?
Once again, the irony is that the one asset I have that is most valuable is my paid-off house, because unless property rights collapse and I’m thrown out by marauding armed bands (who, in any event, would have better choices), I could continue to live in it.
All other assets have questionable value, even T-bills in the hyper-inflation scenario some expect. The sales value of my house is likely to fall by 60% from the peak, but the income return of my house — ongoing residence — is likely to fall very little.
Everything is just worth faith value @ present.
Even the food in your fridge?
No, there is such a thing as real utility.
Dude, he’s like the character out of McTeague.
He eats, drinks, and sleeps with gold.
What’s up with the Rabid Test, Pussy?
I think FPSS is a forward thinker who sees now that currency will be reaching its third and final form in totality here in the very near future. The first form was physical, i.e., gold. The second form was paper money and now we have partially moved towards the the third form which is electronic/virtual. Alad, it’s as if you want to the go back to the old rotary phones while everyone else has moved on to cell phones and mental telepathy. I got to say it is quite amusing to see a grown man with obvious intelligence holding onto the past kicking and screaming. Maybe once they implant the chip in your brain that will track your wealth you can finally be at peace with the redwoods, the moon, and the stars…
‘ it’s as if you want to the go back to the old rotary phones while everyone else has moved on to cell phones and mental telepathy.’
I got an AWESOME old rotary phone at an estate sale last year, down the road on Gallagher Cove. $1.50. I had to pay that much because I let my desire for it show, and therefore she wouldn’t be bartered down to one buck.
Bright red, with the little shiny metal spinny wheel thing to dial with and everything. It’s here by my desk at home and I sometimes pick up the weighty handset part and talk eloquently into it.
No, I didn’t bother to get a phone jack for it, so when I talk into it it’s just for the style of the thing, to look elegant as I beam forth my thought waves to the designated recipient.
Viva imputed rent. Here’s to hoping they never tax it as income.
Isn’t property tax essentially an offset to imputed rent?
Isn’t property tax essentially an offset to imputed rent? Property tax is rent.
What will never stop amazing me about the present episode in U.S. economic history is the gap between those who had no clue about what was coming and those who were in the know. To be a renowned wizard of finance, a director at Citi and a multi-millionaire former Treasury Secretary apparently was not enough to figure out a crisis was on the way. One instead needed to don a tinfoil hat and read blogs.
Wall Street Journal
NOVEMBER 29, 2008
Rubin, Under Fire, Defends His Role at Citi
‘Nobody Was Prepared’ for Crisis of ‘08
By KEN BROWN and DAVID ENRICH
The smartest guys in the room ended up being dumb as rocks.
Or is it that the smartest guys are also the best liars? I may be imagining this, but Rubin’s nose appears to be growing longer and more wooden by the day.
I totally think it’s a matter of lying. There’s no way on this planet that the “experts” couldn’t and didn’t see this coming. No way. Scumbags.
Totally agree.
With all due respect to those of us here, most of us figured this out by stumbling onto bubble blogs (thank you, Ben!).
The real financial players — Paulson included — are the ones who actually created the very “innovations” that got us into this mess, and fought against regulation at every turn.
Notice how nobody is trying to claw-back any of the compensation gained by these criminals over the past decade or so? Nothing.
Notice how not a single “financial genius” who brought the “crisis” upon us has begged and pleaded for mercy. No apologies, no nothing.
I spoke with someone who is retired from the financial industry (fairly highly placed), and he said everybody knew what was going on, and what the consequences would be. They did this for a living, and many had done it for decades.
That’s why the financial industry is able to extract trillions of dollars from taxpayers while the auto industry is made to beg, on their knees, for just a small fraction of what the financial industry is getting.
Something is very rotten in the higher ranks of our political system.
Wasn’t it Charlie Prince who said that as long as the music was playing they would be dancing? Now there’s some dumb-rock smarts.
The music ain’t playing no more, and Wall Street has run out of chairs.
“… and Wall Street has run out of chairs.”
And none of the dancers could see that.
I really like the arguments Citi was a victim of the financial crisis and had little or no role in creating it and it was the employees fault (poor execution) not the board (poor supervision).
Or is it that the smartest guys are also the best liars?
Are they good liars?
Rubin’s nose may be getting longer by the minute, but I don’t think he’s making any headway with his assertions that he couldn’t have possibly known what would happen.
Did you notice he dragged Al Greenspan into his argument, saying Al the Messiah’s reputation has been “unfairly damaged” in the wake of the implosion?
The alleged Masters Of The Universe are playing either dumb or revisionist these days, and both approaches are transparently false.
The smartest guys in the room ended up being dumb as rocks.
Until you know what they did with their stock portfollio, which Hedge Funds they invested in, and how many credit default swaps they took out on their own companies using front men in the Bahamas you have no idea how smart or dumb they are. My guess is these guys have stripped a huge chunk of wealth out of the US.
Dumb-as-a-rock mentality is busting out a prosperous ongoing concern for short-term gains. For whatever millions that were stripped by these guys, many times this amount was forsaked as the value of these looted companies collapsed.
‘Nobody Was Prepared’ for Crisis of ‘08 “I knew nossink, nossink!” Rubin plays Sgt. Schultz in the sit-com “Obama’s Heroes”
The important part of the Cituation is not whether financial guru directors knew in advance what was going to happen, but rather just how much of Citi’s losses are going to get dumped on the taxpayer.
November 24, 2008
The Citigroup Bailout
It’s bailout time. Let’s start with Paul Kedrosky:
Good Bank, Bad Bank, and F—ed Bank: Apparently Citibank and the U.S. government (i.e., we taxpayers) have reached a deal whereby we will backstop something like $300-billion in screwed assets on Citi’s balance sheet. … Here is the gist:
…
To be clear, this is not a “bad bank” model. Assets are not, apparently, being taken off the Citi balance sheet and put into another entity walled off from the Citi biological host. Instead, they are being left on the Citi balance sheet, but tagged and bagged for eventual disposal via taxpayers. …
The collective realization gradually dawns on a new generation of Americans: Wall Street primarily exists to help its insiders screw everyone else to enrich themselves. “Where are the customers’ yachts?” D’oh!!!
The worst cut of all: The little people in flyover country have been asked to pony up $700 bn, or is it $1500 bn, or $XX tn, or maybe a gawdzillion dollars to shore up the failing titans of Wall Street. How many ways is it possible to take it in the @$$?
NOVEMBER 29, 2008
Some Consumers Say Wall Street Failed Them
By ELEANOR LAISEArticle
With retirement accounts tumbling and millions of homeowners struggling to pay their mortgages, a realization is dawning on many Americans: The banks, brokerage firms, insurance companies and other players in the financial-services industry have failed them.
Thirty years ago, a typical consumer had a fixed-rate mortgage, a life-insurance policy, a bank account and an employer-paid pension plan. Nowadays, that same consumer may have a payment option adjustable-rate mortgage, a 401(k) retirement-savings plan, a home-equity line of credit and perhaps even a health-savings account instead of traditional employer-sponsored health insurance.
In the process, risks previously borne by big banks and employers have been placed squarely on the shoulders of consumers. Individuals increasingly bear the risk of interest-rate fluctuations, rising health-care costs, stock-market gyrations and outliving their retirement savings.
“The financial sector’s share of total U.S. corporate profits jumped to 35% in 2007, up from 10% in the early 1980s, according to investment research firm BCA Research.”
This sector has grown too large for safety and economic viability. What’s more, these captains have grown increasingly lazy and incompetent. By attempting to save all of these clowns at the expense of future economic growth, the PTB are paving the road to serfdom.
Precisely!!!
Did they get this story backwards? It sounds to me like the FDIC is hammering the homebuilders.
Wall Street Journal
REAL ESTATE NOVEMBER 26, 2008
Home Builders Hammer FDIC
Agency Is Accused of Curbing Credit From Seized Banks
By MICHAEL CORKERY
Home builders from Florida to Texas are railing against the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., saying the agency is cutting off construction financing from seized banks and demanding early repayment of current loans.
The FDIC, which has become a leading advocate for modifying mortgages of financially strapped homeowners, isn’t extending that same tolerance to the housing industry, the builders said.
“They can do anything they want,” said Earl Snyder, president of Snyder Construction Co. in Englewood, Fla., whose construction lender, Freedom Bank, was taken over by the FDIC on Halloween.
Ya think the FDIC wants more houses to be built?
I read some where that the home builders association is going up to D.C. next week, get on their knees and beg for 250 billion.
They had better Jet-pool.
“get on their knees”
They can get some pointers on that one from the Realtors. I think that’s what most of them are doing right now, just to get a warm meal.
‘I think that’s what most of them are doing right now, just to get a warm meal.’
Yar…out behind dumpsters allllllll across America…
*happy sigh* You know, I think I could read that paragraph a million, no, a ZILLION times, and not get tired of it.
Hey, remember to bring a little foam mat, ex-realtor, so’s you won’t bruise your knees on the gravel and grimy bits of litter.
BWAHAHAHAHAHAAA!
I never get tired of that joke either particularly now that it’s not a joke and has a semblance of reality.
BWAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
There’s an old time new england farmer expression for when times are tough; “We’re jerkin’ off the dog to feed the cat”
Eat up RealTurds. There’s plenty more where that came from.
Also curbing credit to be issued by banks “at risk” Google “Amtrust loans” , check news articles. This week the Office of Thrift Supervision barred the bank from making land acquisition and speculative development loans, including home construction loans. Amtrust Bank is among the country’s 15 largest mortgage lenders and has nearly $18 billion in assets.
Red Friday — replete with real blood…
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 29, 2008
STREETWISE
Black Friday Probably Was a Red-Ink Day
By JACQUELINE DOHERTY | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
A real turkey for retailers.
Gobble, gobble.
US housing
Published: November 28 2008 09:10 | Last updated: November 28 2008 20:05
“To buy a house most people require a job and a mortgage they can afford to repay. Not to mention confidence that the house will one day be worth at least as much as it cost. But until the latter is true, banks will be reluctant to lend as they worry about further losses. Such is the problem at the heart of the financial crisis. So where (and when) will house prices stop falling?
Nationally, home prices have fallen 23 per cent since the July 2006 peak, according to the Case-Schiller index, bringing them back to 2004 levels. Returning to 2001 prices, when the housing boom began, requires a further 25-30 per cent drop. At the current rate of decline, that will take just more than two years, meaning housing is only halfway through its slump.
Such a timescale reflects the long process of cutting Americans’ debt. Lombard St Research, in a report for Knight Vinke, calculates that to move the proportion of household income spent on debt (at normal interest rates) from the current 18 per cent back to the long-term average of 15 per cent, may require zero growth in lending for the next three years.
And property prices move slowly. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, real house prices fell in 267 metropolitan areas. According to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, half of those areas took more than 10 years to recover to previous peaks.
Meanwhile, there are no rays of light to report. Too many houses are on offer – according to Creditsights, the proportion of home owner inventory vacant and for sale stands at 2.8 per cent, almost twice the average between 1981 and 2001. Rising numbers of foreclosures (which follow the direction of unemployment) will continue to add supply at the same time as the recession worsens. Even those with jobs should stay on the sidelines.”
FT - LEX (subscription, copied in entirety)
“Meanwhile, there are no rays of light to report.”
They must have missed the Fed’s latest memo.
So where (and when) will house prices stop falling?
Um, when buying is cheaper than renting?
Just maybe?
It worked out that way last time, but it is different this time.
It’s too crowded; nobody goes there any more.
- Yogi Berra
RE: Wal-Mart episode
“…The more attractive the gift, the more damage people will do to themselves, and each other, trying to get hold of it.
If that idea seems counterintuitive, it is nevertheless true, as the managers of Ikea, the furniture giant, can testify. They opened a new London store recently, offering opening night discounts of nearly 90 per cent on a limited number of leather sofas. The store closed 40 minutes later after 6,000 people tried to force their way through the doors; several had to be taken to hospital.
The press immediately blamed either the boorish stupidity of the British public or the hypnotic influence of the wily Swedes. But the ill-tempered scenes are not unique to Britain: at the grand opening of Jeddah’s Ikea last summer, two people died in the crowds queuing to get hold of $150 vouchers. Nor are these incidents the result of some quasi-religious shopping frenzy. The curse of the free lunch is at work…”
24 March 2005
http://timharford.com/2005/03/free-lunches-always-leave-a-bad-taste-ft-comment/
UK property derivatives
“If UK mortgage lenders believe they have secured enough capital to tide themselves through a recession, they had better think again. A look at the residential property derivatives market suggests house prices have very far indeed to tumble before they reach their expected trough. Since peaking in August 2007, when the average house sold for £201,081, prices have fallen 16.4 per cent, reaching £168,158 at the end of October. Two-year derivatives contracts are now pointing to a further fall of a third to about £113,000. This implied 44 per cent peak-to-trough decline would wipe out all gains since the summer of 2002, leaving several million households with negative equity….”
FT
Now that’s a shocker.
Not that everyone on this board hasn’t been saying exactly the same thing for the past 3-4 years. How on earth could these people have been so stupid? It’s amazing that, still, to this day, people are having trouble with the concept of house price appreciation.
Go back to 1999, take the value and compound it forward until today with the rate of inflation. Viola, there’s the real value of the home. Pretty simple, and yet, continues to escape just about everyone.
That might be pretty simple, and might be the real value of Viola’s home, but, voila, that doesn’t make it a valid argument.
“Since peaking in August 2007, when the average house sold for £201,081, prices have fallen 16.4 per cent, reaching £168,158 at the end of October.”
Now, let’s do a little currency conversion.
201,081 x $2.00 = $402,162
168,158 x $1.50 = $252,237
That is $150,000 lower, or 100,000 pounds, assuming the pound is currently worth $1.50, which is pretty close.
So, who is going to save Manhattan real estate and retailers? I heard 1,000 times or more that it was those rich foreigners. “What is Plan B? Could somebody please bring me Plan B? What the f— do you mean, there is no Plan B?”
Plan B has now become C, D, E, F…
“residential property derivatives market ”
I hope they introduce such a thing for the Dutch housing market very soon (opportunity on the short side, obviously). For some strange reason the Dutch talent for financial innovation is lacking when it comes to the local housing market
My niece bought a house. She’s 21.
I think Canada is breaking up next year so it’s a good time to buy.
Why next year?
Ron Coleman’s book, “Free at Last: Quebec 2007″ said it would happen last year. He predicted Bush would offer statehood to the provinces - other than Quebec - to grab Canadian oil and hydropower.
The Republicans would never do such a thing, because it would result in a permanent Democratic majority. If Canadians could have voted in the last US election, they would have gone about 80% for Obama. Nor would the Democrats, because it wouldn’t be nice. And the Republicans in the Senate would block it anyway.
Canada is more than willing to sell its oil and power to the US right now.
Also Quebec will never leave Canada, because it can’t afford to. It would make about as much sense as Maine leaving the US.
I don’t know about that…last I checked Harper was a conservative.
We forget there are fewer people in Canada than in California. Take out Quebec and there’s only 24 million in the rest of the country.
Silly Coleman - Mexico’s got lots more oil than Canada and all that cheap labor. Warm winters, great beaches, tequila, Aztec (or is it Mayan?) ruins, easy shot to Costa Rica …
Mexico’s Cantarell is close to peaking, if it hasn’t peaked already. The future is dirty Alberta oil sands.
It’s not a real country, anyway.
“I’d rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy.”
Wall Street drowns its sorrows
By Greg Farrell in New York
Published: November 29 2008 00:
“The titans of Wall Street have taken a battering in the financial markets recently, but they are eating well and drinking more, according to the people who run Manhattan’s “power” dining spots.
At the 21 Club, a longtime redoubt of corporate chieftains and big names, alcohol sales are up 9 per cent from last year, and businessmen can be seen drinking $14-a-glass cocktails as early as 3pm on a weekday.
“Where people used to have one vodka on the rocks, now it’s a second one or maybe a third,” says Roger Rice, the floor manager. “I don’t know what to attribute it to. Maybe it’s the last year of the expense account.”
…
“It’s scary to say, but our business is up 6 to 7 per cent,” he says. “Alcohol sales . . . help a lot, they’re about 15 per cent up this year. The bar’s busy all day. I’ve had to hire extra barmaids.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/693de752-bdaa-11dd-bba1-0000779fd18c.html
“My wife drove me to drink, it is the one thing I’m indebted to her for.”
We’ve always joked about guns, cigarettes and booze… Good investments?
11/26/08
By Michael Brush
Americans with 401(k) plans in stocks have been feeling queasy for months as they’ve watched their savings vanish at alarming rates.
But workers covered by traditional pension plans — the ones 100% funded and managed by companies for employees — have so far avoided that sinking feeling.
Unlike the 401(k) crowd, they don’t get monthly statements bearing the grim news of the lousy performance of the investments in their pension plans.
But with stocks and bonds crushed, many of these old-school defined-benefit plans now look downright wobbly. If the economic weakness continues long enough, many could end up in the hands of the independent government agency responsible for taking over failing plans.
This would mean that, down the road, the agency would likely ask for a $50 billion to $100 billion boost from tax dollars, experts say.
That’s right: This would affect you even if you didn’t have a traditional pension plan. It’s the looming bailout no one is talking about.
And to think they wanted to privatize Social Security.
Also, IIRC, only about 20% of the workforce now has a regular pension. Everyone else is on their own.
The smartest thing I saw was a few folks who moved their money into cash holdings in their 401.
And to think they suggested liquidated everyone’s 401Ks and sticking the money into the ether that is Social Security.
Observation: If you have no idea how the Fed & Treasury will pay for $7 tn (and counting) worth of bailouts, there is a pretty good chance you will pay more than your fair share.
Bottomless bailouts from A-Z (source: cnn.com):
SAVING WALL STREET
The government has taken these steps to aid financial institutions.
Term-auction facility: $1.6 trillion in loans to banks so far in exchange for otherwise unwanted collateral. The Fed increased its monthly auction limit to $300 billion in October, up from $20 billion when the Fed began the program.
Dollar swap lines: Unlimited dollars to 13 foreign central banks to provide liquidity to foreign financial institutions. The Fed lifted its cap after raising it to $620 billion in October from $24 billion in December.
Bear Stearns: $29 billion in a special lending facility to guarantee potential losses on its portfolio. With the lending facility, JPMorgan was able to step in to save Bear from bankruptcy.
Lending to banks: $70 billion lent on average every day to investment banks, after facility opened to non-commercial banks for first time in March. $92 billion a day to commercial banks.
Cash injections: $250 billion allocated to banks from $700 billion rescue package in exchange for equity stake in the financial institutions in the form of senior preferred shares.
Citigroup: $300 billion in troubled asset guarantees and $45 billion in cash-injections to prevent fourth-largest bank from failing.
Fed rate cuts: Down to 1% in October 2008, from 5.25% in September 2007.
SAVING MAIN STREET
Consumers are benefiting from the government’s actions in recent months.
Stimulus checks: $100 billion in stimulus checks made their way to 140 million tax filers to boost consumer spending and help grow the economy.
Unemployment benefits: $8 billion toward an expansion of unemployment benefits, to 39 weeks from 26 weeks. Some states must now offer 39-week benefits after an extension act was passed in November.
Bank takeovers: $15.5 billion drawn down so far from the FDIC’s deposit insurance fund after 22 bank failures in 2008.
Rehab foreclosed homes: $4 billion to states and municipalities in assistance to buy up and rehabilitate foreclosed properties.
Student loan guarantees: $9 billion so far in government purchases of student loans from private lenders. Higher borrowing costs made student loans unprofitable for a number of lenders, many of whom stopped issuing the loans.
Money-market guarantees: $50 billion in insurance for money-market funds. The Fed then began to lend an unlimited amount of money to finance banks’ purchases of debt from money-market funds. The Fed then agreed to purchase up to $69 billion in money-market debt directly. In October, the Fed said it would loan up to $600 billion directly to money-market funds, which was extended for six months in November.
Housing rescue: $300 billion approved for insurance of new 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages for at-risk borrowers. The bill includes $16 billion in tax credits for first-time home buyers. But lenders have been slow to sign on.
Deposit insurance: $250,000 in insurance for interest-bearing accounts, up from $100,000. The FDIC also issued unlimited guarantees on non-interest- bearing accounts and newly issued unsecured bank debt.
Consumer loans: $800 billion extended to consumer loan-backed securities, including $200 billion for assets backed by credit cards and car loans and $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities. The Fed will also buy $100 billion of Fannie Mae and Freddie debt to try to make loans cheaper.
SAVING CORPORATE AMERICA
Uncle Sam has intervened to help companies in the following ways.
Business stimulus: $68 billion in tax breaks to corporations to help loosen the stranglehold on businesses trying to finance daily operating expenses.
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac: $200 billion to bail out the mortgage finance giants. Federal officials assumed control of the firms and the $5 trillion in home loans they back.
AIG: $152.5 billion restructured bailout, including a direct investment through preferred shares, a easier terms on a $60 billion loan, and new facilities meant to take on the companies exposure to credit-default swaps.
Automakers: $25 billion in low-interest loans to speed the industry’s transition to more fuel-efficient vehicles.
Commercial paper facility: $271 billion in corporate debt purchased so far by the Fed since its so-called Commercial Paper Funding Facility opened. The Fed allocated $1.4 trillion for the program.
Thank you for this post, PB.
What’s interesting is the disparity between money going to financial firms/products versus what’s going to responsible citizens/taxpayers.
Not that is should be any surprise, of course.
“When robbery is done in open daylight by sanction of the law, as it is done today, then any act of honor or restitution has to be hidden underground.”
Ragnar Danneskjold
I think Robin Hood came up with that idea first, but he understood that it’s the rich who do the robbery by sanction of the law.
Nellie bar the door! The sheeple infestors are trying to escape the burning theater!!!
Hedge funds hit by fresh wave of withdrawals
By James Mackintosh
Published: November 29 2008 01:03 | Last updated: November 29 2008 01:03
Hedge funds have been hit by a fresh wave of withdrawals as investors search for cash, prompting more funds to impose emergency measures to block repayments.
I love the smell of hedges burning in the morning.
28/11/2008
London City news: Hedge funds in turmoil
THE hedge fund industry was in turmoil last night, with a leading manager leaving his job, the closure of funds, job losses and the spectre of an end to hugely lucrative management fees.
Simon Treacher, the co-manager of BlueBay’s Emerging Markets Total Return Fund, resigned yesterday after what the company said was a “breach of internal valuation policy.”
Will we get a GBP crash around the same time? Given Labor’s policies, I think we’re strongly headed there.
We’re definitely headed to parity or so.
Parity?
Sweet.
I’d love to go pub hopping in the UK again. I thought I might’ve been priced out of pints there for awhile …
I was in England in 1999. At that time the British Pound was 1.67.
I remember from high school in the 1960’s when there were 4 marks to the dollar and 4 dollars to the pound. That made calculations pretty easy.
I expect bigger stock market drops ahead, as capitulation has been thwarted once again by irrational exuberance.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Stocks seek more gains on hopes worst is past
U.S. jobs report on tap along with interest rate decisions in Europe
By Nick Godt, MarketWatch
Last update: 6:02 p.m. EST Nov. 28, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Stocks will enter the month of December with a sense of optimism that much of the dismal environment for corporate profits has already been discounted by the market, even as upcoming reports, including the key jobs report on Friday, are expected to show the economic picture is still worsening.
There seems to be bullish sentiment all over the place. The “inevitable” rally is being tossed out there as a foregone conclusion. We will definitely hit 10,000 again, they say.
Quiz time!
Who raked someone over the coals on the housing subject this Thanksgiving?
We need a really good story. I didn’t do it myself, and am feeling just a tad guilty about that so I need something to enliven myself.
C’mon, there’s gotta have been someone!
My SIL and hubby are withdrawn from the realm of ordinary conversation, including housing bubbles and financial crises — no fun at all for me!
This is seriously the best story ever. The whole article is worth savoring like the delicious post-prandial combination of walnuts, stilton and fine port.
Recession: When the money goes, so does the toxic wife
‘You loser!” screamed Katie, aiming a vase at her husband. “You’ve destroyed my life,” she continued, hurling it. “Just look at my hair, look at my nails! You loser, you jerk, you nobody.”
Katie’s husband, Jack, whose property portfolio disintegrated in the financial crash, had just told his wife that she would have to cut back on her thrice-weekly visits to Nicky Clarke, the nail salon in Harvey Nichols, and the oxygen facials, chemical peels and seaweed wraps at Space NK.
Not only that, but they no longer had the money to pay for an army of bullied Eastern Europeans to wait on her hand and foot.
Worse was to come – the brow-lift would have to be cancelled; her black Amex card would have to be snipped in half; and there was no way, he told her, that he could carry on spending £28,000 a year on Henry’s school fees at Eton.
Chloe, too, would have to leave the marginally cheaper (only £25,000 pa) Wycombe Abbey immediately.
Such was the aggression and verbal and physical abuse that followed that Jack was left with cut lips and blood streaming from a broken nose.
There’s more here…great stuff! Are these stories for real? I truly cannot imagine…
How to spot a toxic wife on the prowl
Five tips on how to distinguish a gold digger from a genuine love interest.
Last Updated: 7:29PM GMT 26 Nov 2008
I missed this one. This is simply solid gold!
Oh, and the answer to your question is that it is undeniably very very real.
They are part of the ecosystem of New York and London (Silicon Valley and SF too, if you get right down to it.)
A small sub-sub-species undoubtedly but one that stands out vividly in memory for fairly obvious reasons.
Kind of a shock to find out that “Hunting for a Perfect Spouse” works both ways, isn’t it?
Puts an emphasis on Family Values (the real kind, not the Political Type) - the Cindy McCain types are very rare, eh?
Just replace “money” with “youth and beauty” and you can reverse the roles.
It goes both ways…
Show me a man with lots of money who will marry — and be forever faithful to — a woman who is homely but has a nice personality.
BTW, most men have a back-up lined up before they leave their wives, too. As a matter of fact, men are MUCH more likely to leave for another lover (the article denigrated these women for having rich lovers lined-up right away).
Maybe someday, humans will evolve to a point where they choose their spouses for their good character and integrity, instead of wealth, youth and beauty. Until then, the deal is youth/beauty for money.
Well, lessee how I do, in case I want to find myself a rich husband by following these simple tips:
1. Listen, you suspicious jerk, my eyes ‘dart around you’ because I have major ADD. One of these days I should get some Ritalin, but meanwhile, just be more fascinating if you want me to pay attention to your drivel and not look elsewhere. Anyway, I can still hear you, it’s called ‘multi-tasking’.
a.) Unfortunately, I’m not good with brands, so I can’t tell if your car or shoes or watch are expensive. I don’t even wear a watch, because they get damaged. I do have a zillion shoes but they are GIRL shoes, which is the one and only kind I’m interested in.
2. Hmmm. I don’t waste time with small talk either. I say ‘Do you like trees, my good sir?’ Then I ask: ‘Do you now or have you ever damaged, offended, annoyed, or in any way even slightly inconvenienced a 1.) Tree. Or 2.) Frog. 3.) Wetland biologist, or have you, in any way, disrespected the vast beauty and wonder of this, our precious Natural World?’
Is what I ask. If the answer is ‘yes’ to any of these questions, or if I don’t like his tie, then I am fookin’ out of there.
a.) If, however, the response pleases me, I say ‘Let’s have more French-fries’. And we have more French-fries.
Then, later, I say ‘Shall we have s*xual inter*course?’ And then we go have s*xual inter*course.
And then we have more French-fries.
4. Nope, a strike on this one. Most expensive?! Heck no! I need my money for candy and shoes! I like dive bars, anyhow, and as I just indicated, I feast on French-fries. I bet I know every single good dive bar and French-fry supplier for miles around here. It’s like an instinct for me. A miraculous talent, really.
5. Okay, goody, at last I got one absolutely spang on!:
‘She will be dressed provocatively and flirt without first finding out if you’re involved with someone else. She has no scruples about stealing another woman’s man.’
Hahahahah! Life is fun, huh!
6. ‘In this case, watch out for over-grooming. Her nails, outfit, hair and make-up have probably taken most of the day to perfect. After all, her investment is herself.’
Hmmmm. Now this one is a poser. Does a bunch of moss in the hair count as a defect or an asset? Say, for example, I happened to be out in the woods and felt the need to roll around in the delightful loam? Or some just fell on me out of a tree and I didn’t notice? It’s very pretty moss, after all.
So, how did I do? Did I pass?
Hey, scr*ew you! That’s MY moss! I’m takin’ my frog and I’m going to a different dive bar!
No offence but your heart simply isn’t in the gold-diggin’ game.
B- for effort. D- for achievement.
‘B- for effort. D- for achievement.’
Well, hey, scr*ew you, again! I bet you suck at gold-digging even worse than ME, Mr. Man!
And I reiterate, I’m takin’ my frog AND my moss and going to a different dive bar, this one with even better french-fries and unfermented ketchup bottles, so there.
You’ll be amused to know that this place opened up near my house that serves exactly two things: falafel and french fries.
And, verily the most killer french-fries they are. While everyone else is moaning about business, this young muppet is raking in the dough as if it were 2005.
Now they are thinking of extending the hours!
‘Well, hey, scr*ew you, again! I bet you suck at gold-digging even worse than ME, Mr. Man!’
I was just being sassy, there, Fasty. You’re funny. Thanks.
‘You’ll be amused to know that this place opened up near my house that serves exactly two things: falafel and french fries.
Oh. My. God. Falafel AND french fries, AND of killer quality…you must have been extra good and obtained favor in the sight of Sweet Baby Jeebus, this is clear to me.
Now, I cannot imagine what good thing it was you might have done, and neither can anyone else on the HBB probably, but the results are irrefutable. Jeebus loves you, man!
Quick, eat lots of french fries and falafel!
And by the way, is this a ‘cute’ muppet? Hahaha! Maybe Jeebus REALLY loves you.
I have been enjoying them, and yes the muppet is cute.
Hey in San Jose there’s the Falafal Drive-In, which serves killer falafal sandwiches in pita bread, and also fries. Check it out next time you head to Silli Vally.
‘I have been enjoying them, and yes the muppet is cute.’
Yeah, well, your muppet is ‘easy’, so there. Jerk!*flounces out of room dramatically*
Oh, I just thought of this, if falafel is sold, then perhaps this easy muppet you are so besotted with has…. exotic dark sloe-eyes! Does he/she/it?! Awesome! And also curly ringlets like dark clustered grapes, like in Arabian Nights!
I was just yesterday declaiming about how ‘Arabian Nights’ shaped my simple farm girl life, and made me love Persian carpets for forever and ever, and also hookahs, if I ever get a hookah.
Tell us all about your charmer! We won’t even call INS, is how much we want to hear.
That is a very good story. Although my favorite part of it was how you can and will use ‘post-prandial’ in casual discourse. I don’t believe I’ve ever seen that in actual person (well, sort of actual, you know what I mean) I’ve only ever witnessed it previously in English novels, like by Jane Austen or somebody else all fancy wearing an empire gown and one of those little hat thingies.
Seriously, I had to bite my knuckles to stifle a scream of joy. Hahaha!
Okay. Enough silliness:
(from the article)
‘She now has a waiting-list for her life-coaching sessions – a course costs between £10,000-£60,000 – on how to distinguish a gold-digger from a genuine woman’.
I gotta ask: these retards really and for truly can’t tell the difference?! No, REALLY???? Then I must now think inside the Olybrains: ‘How’d you even GET rich enough to attract a gold-digger, if you are so consumately and utterly ignorant and unperceptive? Huh? Huh? Huh?’
Come on. These poor sad abandoned husbands didn’t actually CARE, before, when they had money and life was grand. The hottie bottie was perfectly sufficient. Now they’s poor they’s all boo-hooing…
I hope I don’t choke from all the laughing.
Yes Oly I’m laughing also. My heart just drips with sympathy for these poor men.
The striking thing is not that some men are fools. Popular culture has been telling us that for several decades. What is noteworthy is the belated recognition that a sizable subset of women are quite their equals (smiley emoticon yourself).
McCoy says “post-prandial” in the 4th Star Trek film - the one with the whales.
Not that I’m a trekker (Deep Space Nine is my favorite Start Trek series), the movie was called “Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home”
(Sorry for the OT, but I am doing a little troubleshooting since the PC I’m on is really only used for HBB and another site my wife frequents).
Have any of you picked up the malware Anti-Virus2009?
An update of the 2008 version. Bummer.
I use Spybot Search and Destroy (www.safer-networking.net) Do NOT use a look-alike.
Also Avast AV is one of the best. (www.avast.com)
Both are free and highly rated by credible sources such as CNET or PC Computing.
My reply did come through. This is one very strange board.
Try this one more time.
Avast AV (www.avast.com)
Spybot Search and Destroy (www.safer-networking.net)
Early numbers say Black Friday sales BETTER than last year. Huh….RECESSION OVER!!!!!
They trot that same story out every year. Seriously, go back and look. The initial numbers are always strong - then the bad news trickles out over time during bad years.
Someone said it here: ‘Debt Zombies’
i tried saying a few times yesterday and nobody knew what I was talking about.
They will eventually.
Oooh, another piece of awesummmmmmmm-ness: Meltdown fallout: some parents rethink toy-buying.
“Parents have trouble saying no,” said Allison Pugh, a University of Virginia sociology professor. She says parents often buy toys to avoid guilt and ensure their children feel in sync with school classmates.
“Even under circumstances of dire financial straits, that’s the last thing parents give up,” said Pugh. “They’ll contain their own buying for themselves before they’ll make their child feel different at school.”
Amanda Almodovar says she encounters such families in her work as an elementary school social worker in Alamance County, N.C., where homelessness and unemployment are rising.
“I try to tell them, worry about your home, your heating bill — but they’re the ones who have to look into children’s faces, the children saying ‘I want this, I want that.’”
“I had one parent who said she’d prostitute herself to get what her child wants,” Almodovar said. “It’s heartbreaking. They feel inadequate as parents.
Don’t just stand there then! Get on your knees for a warm meal.
warm meal?
I wanna wii dagnabit! get to it mom.
Recession bites deep into Santa’s sack Ouch.
Wow, semi-convenient spot to pitch a tent. I’d love to, but the $500 annual tax/assoc. fee bite is not for me:
http://tinyurl.com/644wpw
Man: the hunter/gatherer/squatter. That is how I feel sometimes. What is the point of building infrastructure as a civilized consumer if all it is a Trojan Horse for the government to get a piece of the action with?