The Days Of Living Fat Have Come To An End
Readers discussed the economic fallout from the housing bubble. “My wife and I decided to speed the bust along by not participating in the consumer aspect of Christmas this year. Beyond a couple bottles of wine for our folks, we’re instead making a donation to our two favorite non-profits. My parents are definitely going ‘lite,’ or so they say. But I think it’ll take a couple more Christmas years before we see the real pain–all those rich people ARMs are just starting to reset, so they probably still have access to credit. 2009 or 2010 for total bust.”
A reply. “I have been fed up with the consumerism related to Christmas for years. In our family we mainly just give gifts to kids anyways, so aside from having a nice dinner we don’t spend all that much. But I get the sense that lots of people are doing the same thing. The housing bubble led to a credit and debt bubble, and this in turn led to a retail bubble. One by one they pop, and as each one goes, it sows the seeds for the popping of the next one.”
One had this. “As a lifelong miser who years ago told others (except my brother’s children) that there would be no gifts from me and there should not be any vice versa, i enjoy this year’s xmas spectacle of shut down the wallets. The american sheeple have needed this bat in the face for a very long time, and they are still sitting on the curb wondering why their face hurts so much.”
And one had this quote. “I had three pieces of limestone on my desk, but I was terrified to find that they required to be dusted daily, when the furniture of my mind was all undusted still, and threw them out the window in disgust. - Henry David Thoreau.”
From Marketplace. “Tess Vigeland: This week many of us were busy stuffing a turkey or pounding mashed potatoes into a pulp, but not everyone was lucky enough to be feasting. I met Elaine, a 41-year-old mother of two from Altadena, California, at the Foothill Unity Center. She was there with her six-month-old. Elaine: ‘We really just don’t know what’s going to happen, but we’ve been in foreclosure 77 days now, so…’”
“Elaine worked as a loan processor. Her husband was a mortgage broker. She says they cleared somewhere north of $100,000 a year and had no trouble supporting themselves and their two small children — until the housing market crashed. And now?”
“They defaulted on their home loan in January and quickly burned through about $20,000 dollars in savings, so now most expenses are going on credit cards. Her husband is pounding the pavement for a new job while she stays home with the newborn. Elaine: ‘We haven’t had a real estate transaction since December, so we had to take all of our E-Trade accounts, close them out. You know, we had to juggle from paying electricity, gas. It’s a humbling experience to go from making all this money and everything looks great and then all of a sudden just looking out and wondering where and when we’ll have money to buy food.’”
The Birmjngham Business Journal. “The tightened credit market and current housing slump in the Birmingham-Hoover metro area have forced several local mortgage brokers to shutter their businesses. Adam Pullen said since some of the more exotic loan products, such as the 80/20 loans and 100 percent financing, have dried up in the markets, brokers have been left out in the cold.”
“‘What’s happened is brokers have had to rely on lenders. Most of them are banks that have clutched down on lending,’ Pullen said. ‘The industry is shutting down brokers.’”
“The markets will remain crippled without non-conventional loans to offer consumers, Pullen said. ‘Let’s face it – most people need 100 percent financing to buy a home,’ he said.”
The Las Vegas Sun. “Casino and gaming executives from domestic and international companies weighed in on the current economic crisis at this morning’s Global Gaming Conference in Las Vegas. Harrah’s CEO Gary Loveman told attendees the tightening credit market is a much more important challenge in casino growth than the short-term drop in consumer spending. The Harrah’s CEO said casino developers ’spend capital like drunken sailors,’ building lavish facilities while seeing little return on their investment during the downturn.”
The Enterprise Record. “Longtime Chico manufacturer Bruce Norlie knows about painful cutbacks. His company, Norfield Industries, manufactures the equipment to make prehung doors, a staple of the housing industry. Each layoff was hurtful to Norlie, member of a longtime Chico family that values its employees and appreciates their productivity. Lucky for him, his other enterprises, including equipment supplies like saw blades, are still positive.”
“‘When the housing industry was going wild, our business was very strong. We’ve had a substantial number of customers go out of business, predominantly in the U.S., some in Canada,’ he said.”
“Over the years that Norlie has been in the industry, he’s seen other downturns. ‘It’s never been this bad though,’ he noted.”
The Union Tribune. “Matt Sauer, a young, single mortgage broker, planned to get rich quick after graduating from college. By age 28, he owned properties in Pacific Beach, Las Vegas and Florida. Today, the houses are underwater, and Sauer’s dreams of quitting his job to become a Christian missionary are on hold because of his financial obligations.”
“‘Like the Bible says: ‘The borrower is the servant to the lender,’ Sauer said. ‘I am enslaved.’”
The Valley Chronicle. “Though the economic future is uncertain for San Jacinto no less than other local California governments, measures are available to save $380,000 this budget year, City Manager Barry McClellan told the City Council last week and greater savings can be achieved if it becomes necessary. McClellan said he began working on reducing spending - all travel on the city dime must be approved by him personally - in August and department heads have come up with additional ways to save money should the need arrive.”
“It probably will. ‘The days of living fat have come to an end,’ said Mayor Jim Ayres.”
The News Leader. “The odds of landing a part-time job at department store operator Bealls Outlet Stores Inc. this holiday season are slimmer than getting into Harvard: It’s one out of every 45. The chances aren’t any better at 7-Eleven. One California store received more than 100 applicants in a week and a half for jobs that pay $8.50 per hour — and the retailer doesn’t even usually hire holiday workers.”
“‘I thought it was going to be pretty easy, but I am not the only one looking for a job. There are thousands of us going for the same thing,’ said Kimberly Caparo of Chesterfield, Mich., who has applied for part-time jobs at Toys ‘R’ Us Inc., Home Depot Inc. and Lowe’s Cos. Inc. in recent weeks since she and her husband were laid off.”
“In one respect, however, Springfield job applicants appear to fit a nationwide trend — rather than the usual pool of teens or stay-at-home moms looking for extra holiday spending money, those vying for jobs have much deeper résumés. As far back as September, Bealls Outlet Stores — which operates most of its 450 stores in Florida — was being flooded with up to 40 to 50 applicants a week, said Conrad Szymanski, president of the Bradenton, Fla.-based chain. A year ago, they saw one or two applicants a week per store.”
“‘What we are seeing is a profound increase,’ particularly in Florida, California, and Arizona, where the real estate market has been hit hard, said Szymanski.”
“David Ortega, a training store manager at the 7-Eleven in Citrus Heights, Calif., that got more than 100 applications, noted that many applicants have management experience — including those who owned construction businesses. The store in a suburb of Sacramento, which has been hard hit by the housing slump, usually saw candidates who came straight out of high school, he said. One recent applicant — a former manager in cosmetics at Macy’s — even wrote him a thank-you note for discussing the $8.50 per hour job.”
“‘You expect to see that for a higher-level position, like an executive,’ he said.”
“John Morris, who expects to be laid off from his Springfield marketing job at the end of the year, has applied for jobs all over the country.Morris, 41, said the impression he gets is that, although there is a lot of competition, there are a lot of jobs available, as well. ‘The thing that is probably killing the market right now is everyone is waiting for Jan. 1 for the new financial year to start before making any decision.’”
“He’s still optimistic he’ll find another marketing position but recently has been considering taking a job shuttling railroad workers to and from job sites. ‘The stigma there is how do I tell my family I didn’t really need a college degree?’ Morris said.”
“‘Right now I’m still hoping to get a job that is more continuing up the professional ladder,’ he said. ‘But if December comes around and there’s nothing there, then I will swallow my pride and get a commercial driver’s license and lower my expectations — and honestly, probably be happier. There’s not a lot of stress with driving a bus. It gets the bills paid and right now that’s the more important thing.’”
Every person in Economics 101 learns that recessions are the way and economy heals from malinvestment; usually the product of an unsustainable boom. We’ve just had the most unsustainable boom in history, so it makes sense there is some healing to do. These people finding new ways to make a living are a manifestaion of that, nothing more.
Despite what you are hearing from the media and Washington, this is to be endured, not avoided. My advice to HBBers is to accept that and plan accordingly.
Strong hands will make a better killing if the MSM convinces everyone else that the world is coming to an end. Live your lives and don’t buy into the message from the gloomsters.
There it is.
The changes that are happening daily are just as crazy as what was happening in 1989, when the Humpty Dumpty also known as the Berlin Wall came down, and elsewhere within the Curtain’ the natives got restless.
At first it was a trickle of people that were making their curtain call, and it just got out of control, and suddenly communism was no longer.
Consumerism will soon be no longer…
Not a bad thing, Really.
“Consumerism will soon be no longer… ”
I call that the “C” word.
Maybe consumers will be called “Americans”
Consumerism. . .you hit the nail on the head — not capitalism per se, which will exist long beyond this crisis, but our unique brand of capitalism is consumerism which requires an ever-expanding cycle of spending, consumption, and debt to sustain itself. That is our problem.
Yeah, Jonathan Hoenig on FBN was complaining about consumerism. Consumerism, by definition does not create wealth. The risk takers at the high end who create businesses are the ones who create wealth and create jobs. The MSM has to be hit with clubs lots of times to shake the “consumer spending” phrase out of their heads. It’s sad that our business media pay special attention to what’s going on in the Malls from Black Friday to December 31!
Japan, with its high savings rate, never cares about consumer spending, since it does not expect consumers to save the day. They care about what’s produced, at such a good quality that it’s suitable for foreignors to buy.
But Bill look at how many businesses need consumerism to exist? Take down consumerism and the amount of businesses opportunities go away also.
On Japan, I take the opposite view. Their whole economy revolved around consumerism. You have to see Tokio (Shinjuku and Ginza) on a saturday. Japanese have very limited space in their housing so in some ways it means they don’t buy so much crap but what they do buy is high end.
I am not defending consumerism but my opinion is that it is the lack of credit will be the real problem. It will hurt the things we NEED as well as what we WANT (Consumerism).
You don’t believe me, start researching the current credit situation where farms cannot get access to sufficient credit which means next years plantings will be down big time.
“…this is to be endured, not avoided…”
Truer words have never been spoken. This is exactly the advice I’ve been sharing with family and friends. And those who make a living out of giving financial advice and try to spin it differently should be ashamed of themselves (though I do find that MSM seems to be capitulating).
As a society, we have spent the last several years devising ways to avoid the consequences of our actions. All of the bailout talk and plans are an extension of these. We need to let the plane come in for a landing and then rebuild after the consequences have worked themselves out.
There are many people that are experiencing consequences now and many more will follow.
Ben: you are right that we need to endure through this change not avoid it.
The Law of the Harvest cannot be avoided…”As ye sow, so shall ye reap.”
Sometimes you have to give in to the pain to get through it.
“These people finding new ways to make a living are a manifestaion of that, nothing more.”
““Elaine worked as a loan processor. Her husband was a mortgage broker.”
What are these people qualified to do? All they did was pimp, or process, falsified mortgages. I see people, even where I work, that are nervous about their jobs.
The key to job security is to always be developing yourself. I could lose my job but I know that a million mortgage brokers couldn’t step right in so the pressure is lessened. The job I’m in is ideally suited for me because I have had more than 10 years of pretty specialized experience. If I didn’t know what I was doing my wise-a$$ed ways would have gotten me fired long ago.
These people have put themselves in a pretty big hole. We will see which ones have the integrity to dig themselves out.
I agree. It is the survival of the fittest at the work place.
I hope that it continues well into the next couple of years. At least it will prevent the unskilled come into a profession where the way one dresses, what one drives, the slick talk are not the benchmark for landing a job; but knowledge of the work and doing it right. Just hope…
how one dresses…
I hope though, that we can get a bit more of a business atmosphere back. It seems like the attitudes of people coming into my workplace these last few years has been, “take me or leave me, I don’t really need this job anyway”.
nycdj is right about that at least, the bar has been set way too low this decade for behavior in the workplace.
I’ve always been suspicious of those who dressed too well…they are often trying to hide some serious deficiencies.
A long-haired, denim-clad genius is preferable to a smooth-talking suit, IMHO. But that’s just me.
I would think that a long-haired denim-clad genius is hiding some defiencies also.
Best way is to dress for your own comfort. Hence in Maryland I dressed in blue jeans because dockers are not warm enough. I did not interact with the customer anyway. However the locals dressed in dockers - less casual. Here in L.A. most of my comrades wear jeans, but I like wearing dockers. Besides, I notice that women tend to give me approving looks when I wear better clothes like pressed shirts and dockers. I’m open to the dating scene now that I’m in California.
Whether the inevitable is prolonged by another $800 billion artificial stimulus or quickened by no stimulus, the honest saver will come out ahead at the end.
You will know it when there are no creative financing schemes and only 20/80 loans based on 2 and a half times income.
An honest society is a polite society, and by golly we will get there.
“Casino and gaming executives from domestic and international companies weighed in on the current economic crisis at this morning’s Global Gaming Conference in Las Vegas. Harrah’s CEO Gary Loveman told attendees the tightening credit market is a much more important challenge in casino growth than the short-term drop in consumer spending. The Harrah’s CEO said casino developers ’spend capital like drunken sailors,’ building lavish facilities while seeing little return on their investment during the downturn.”
Wow…
The casinos are on the receiving end of financial pain on both ends~
I suspect after they all go bankrupt, along with the indian casinos (it’s back to selling no-tax smokes, Chief) we can get serious about what got us here to the economic precipice, Gambling.
The bling has definitely gone out of gambling.
I haven’t been in an Indian Casino in about 15 years. I used to pretend I was a horse with blinders on, when I would go into one. I didn’t want to look around and see what was surrounding me. It was too depressing. The lady at the slot machine, smoking a cigarette, with her oxygen tank in tow was the topper.
Reminds me of the experiment back in the 70’s where they hooked a rat up to a device he could click that would give it a little dose of cocaine or heroin, something like that. You guessed it; he would click the device ’till he died.
LOL! I saw that in Vegas one time and made the mistake of trying to play one of “her machines”. She chewed me out with those nicotine stained teeth.
aladinsane ,
go back to selling smokes, Chief ? why not go back to shining shoes, nigger ? Or go back to stealing cars, greaser ?
Don’t know if you’re a bigot or just a jerk, but why not stick to the topic and not ridicule my people ?
Pullen said. ‘Let’s face it – most people need 100 percent financing to buy a home,’ he said.”
Well then ‘they’ don’t get to buy a home, it’s really just that simple…simpleton.
And exactly WHY they need 100% financing. 20% down would have kept prices firmly on the ground and we would net be in this mess… Don’t get me going about Credit Cards and car loans.
Absolutely right. The biggest problem isn’t interest only, or even the “evil” negative am (or pick a payment loans). The problem is that people were buying houses with NOTHING down and at an insane ratio to their income.
A no down loan to a person with excellent credit and verified income that is >1/3 the loan amount is fine. The problem is that these people were combining all the “affordability” products into something that was never intentioned and is an absolutely awful (as we now see) idea.
I’d be happy to make some “subprime” loans with my capital. However, the idea that you can combine a no-down, low credit, stated income, and negative amortization loan together and get a usable product is just stupidity. That loan is worth NOTHING. It’s a very, very expensive call option on an asset that may, or may not go up in value.
Even with this type of loan where loan amount is no more than 3x annual income, there’s no risk reduction for the bank. A fully qualified buyer with perfect credit could still simply walk away from the loan due to loss of job, savings, expensive medical or legal incidents, or whim. In fact, this is what “subprime” or maybe “Alt-A” should’ve really been. The problem is that the income-to-price ratio was shot to heck and only amplified the damage exponentially.
The whole point of 20% down was as a risk mitigation factor for the bank. If something went to heck, even with a reasonably changing market, they had recourse to recover their losses. Even if the bank charged an interest rate premium, there’s no guarantee that in a reasonable period of time they would recover their money. All of the MBS’s would’ve been far safer (and far lower in value!) if the banks had simply done this.
And, of course, the bond rating agencies and the Fed are complicit by not raising interest rates and/or risk profiles.
My solution - confiscate all personal assets of the upper echelons of the banks, Fed officials and credit rating agencies who took part in this debacle, and dump the money back into the mortgages as principle. If I can realize this with my few MBA courses in macroeconomics and finance, then the bankers either should understand these principles or are grossly negligent and should get their money taken from them.
Right on.
Would anyone here on the HBB go as far to give back all the unreasonable gains they made on their homes when they sold them in 2005/2006?
I thought not.
So why should all those Other people who Also participated in the scam have their assets seized?
Seems like a lot of folks on this very board don’t recognize their own culpability in this mess. If you willingly sold your property to some stupid ass and made a killing as a result it, I don’t see why you’re any different than the people you condemn.
Just calling it like I see it.
Eudemon, the people that sold at the peak of the market bear no fault. No one forced the idiots that bought at the top of the market to buy then. The banks, on the other hand, willingly lended, but then weren’t made to pay the consequences of their actions.
The only difference is that people who sold near the peak didn’t commit fraud to get the deal done. The MTG brokers/RE agents are the responsible parties for the violation of the law (as well as the FB).
The seller was the one party (in most transactions) that actually wasn’t breaking the law. The buyer likely inflated their income, the MTG broker signed off on it, and the RE agent gave horrible financial advice. All of these people are at fault. The seller is just taking advantage of the stupidity of other people; which, as far as I know, is totally legal.
I, btw, didn’t buy or sell a home during the run-up. But I did advise others to sell, and a few actually did. These people aren’t (in most cases) the responsible party, they were taking advantage of an extreme market dislocation.
“The only difference is that people who sold near the peak didn’t commit fraud to get the deal done.”
You don’t know that, Michael. Who says that individuals who sold their properties at the peak aren’t guilty of fraud. You?
How many sold properties they knew were made of stucco crap or something similar? Who didn’t public admit to the flaws they knew of?
How many weren’t friends of the appraisers?
There are people on this very board who knowingly defrauded others and now label themselves as *geniuses*. This includes those who didn’t fully disclose property flaws. Last time I looked, that was against the law.
Further, how do you know that all the other people in real estate transactions are guilty of fraud? Simply because they were employed in the business? Of course, there are many fraudulent individuals out there (who broke the law), but what about those in the business who were totally above-board legally speaking?
One of my properties sold in ‘05 had an unfinished well on it. I asked that it be specified in bold capital letter that buyer had been notified of it.
In cases of residential sales, one can only disclose according to expertise. Expertise is what the buyer pays for with an inspection. A seller can further avoid the appearance of handing off to a greater fool by purchasing a home warranty coverage. When we sold our house in late ‘04 we did this.
I don’t know if my buyer got taken for a ride or not, he paid the prevailing market price for my house and I took the money and didn’t look back. I sleep like a baby and have a clear conscience on the matter.
Go read this week’s Business Week great article about the sleezy mortgage biz, and I’m not talking the financial products, I’m talking the sex being solicited by brokers to loan wholesalers, women had to give it up or not get a piece of the action, they were real estate whores and sluts. People in the biz knew who the women were who would put out to get their paper picked up and sent to wall st, really creepy stuff was going on we are just now learning about.
Eudemon,
I sold my home in 2005 to an “investor” willing to pay more than twice what I paid in 2002. He put 10% down and a “bank” financed him. I knew my house was not worth the money the investor paid and I knew incomes could not support the insane price run up. That is not fraud, that is called paying attention. The REIC creating 25 financial products for a single underlying asset…Now that’s fraud.
Low clothing prices - Good
Low food prices - Good
Low fuel prices - Good
Low housing prices - To be avoided at all costs.
I believe we will experience a period of deflation where prices for all goods including gas, food, housing, cars, TVs, and even school tuition come down. Demand simply will not be there. This means even more jobs will be lost for 2009 and I think unemployment will be close to 10%. Think people are struggling now? You ain’t seen nothing yet.
That should be interesting. College tuition has been increasing faster than general inflation for something like 30 years. It would be interesting to see what happens if colleges determine that they need to lower tuition to continue to attract students. What will they cut in their budgets?
I think college tuition is already dropping. The big schools, Harvard, Yale, & Stanford have already slashed rates for families at various income levels. As these guys go, expect out of state fees at second tier places to follow.
Oliver
P.S. Second tier places often offer better education than the big names, but by tradition are considered second tier.
I think they were being forced to provide more help to students because they were not spending any money from their 20 Billion + endowments. Of course, if they had it all invested in real estate and the stockmarket, those endowments maybe not be doing so hot now.
Someone once said, ‘we’ like to brag about the great low priced deals ‘we’ get on everything but our ‘house’ and then ‘we’ like to brag about how expensive it was, or how much it’s gone up.
Low wages - bad
Can’t really blame everyone for tapping their home equity, they haven’t gotten a real raise in a decade! Globalization marches on, US standard of living will keep going down, get used to it kids!
If we go to 9% home loan interest rates and 20% down with 2 and a half times income rule of thumb for loans, then I will consider it safe to buy a house with cash in a neighborhood with schools that have great test scores.
The problem is the mentality of people who have expectations that the home they buy must be some large mansion. If you ever watch property virgins on HGTV, they all complain about how “Small this is and that is.”
When my husband and I bought our first home, guess what? WE WERE HAPPY WE EVEN GOT A HOME!” Yes, the kitchen was small, yes so were the bedrooms , but we didn’t care!!! It was AFFORDABLE!!!
Now we have a generation raised on mom and dad’s credit obsession and they think everything should be given to them big and now!
Eventually some arty film maker will produce a piece that shows children in Africa scrounging for a meal and a clean place to sleep, and then cut to some young couple walking through a prospective new home complaining that the kitchen counter tops need to be updated.
My husband and I have started looking at houses– we’ve got a small fry, would like to have more, and really can’t rent with confidence in our area due to foreclosures. Not to mention that people want unreasonable rents for housing. We actually have it figured out where we can buy a house for a smaller total PITI than the current rent on our too-small apartment. Anyway.
We saw one house we liked, a 4/2 which could last us for a decade or more. 1400 square feet. Most of the “Property Virgins” are singles or couples with no kids, “needing” at least a 3/2 with 2000+ square feet and a huge lawn. And kids are never mentioned. “Oh, that closet’s pretty small.” That closet is larger than the bedroom I shared growing up! Get a clue!
(We passed on the house because it didn’t even have a postage stamp of a lawn– .07 acre lot– and kids need someplace to run a little bit!)
That show is despicable. Not because the buyers complain about how ratty some of the houses are (pithy comments about craphole houses are comical — and show the disconnect between the percieved value of the house vs the actual value that you have to pay) but because that Realtor that shows them around is the epitome of slimey.
I’d bet that most of the large mortgages and bait and switch homes she forced them into are now in foreclosure.
“‘Like the Bible says: ‘The borrower is the servant to the lender,’ Sauer said. ‘I am enslaved.’”
At least he got religion. BwaHaHaHaHAHAHAHAHAAAAAA!!!!
It sounds like he really doesn’t believe in what he’s selling.
money and religion are like oil and water…you can’t have either one go together..no such thing as a religious greedy man..
no such thing as a religious greedy man.. Depends on semantics. I think some people’s religion is the gratification of their greed; others, the continuing justification of their biases; etc.
I never saw a bible thumper, when I lived down South, that wouldn’t absolutely screw somebody over for a dollar. Once the tithes were paid all else was fair game.
I love how he said he can’t be a missionary because he didn’t make enough money. I don’t think he quite understands the whole vow of poverty thing–does it still count if it’s forced on you by bad decisions as opposed to conscious choice?
What do they call it? Prosperity Doctrine? Prosperity something or other? Or is it now Seed Faith? A lot of the televangelists over the years have taught variations on this idea that God wants you to be wealthy. And more importantly God wants the televangelists to be obscenely wealthy. The more you give to the televangelists the more God will “prosper you.” 700 Club has some segment on every show about how someone was struggling financially, but then they started giving money to the 700 Club and they miraculously found financial security. I seem to remember something about how Kenneth Copeland supposedly got a revelation from God, promising that anyone who gave him money for a new delux jet would be rewarded financially by God.
It’s not the brand of Christianity I associate with. But it’s been one of the more public faces of Christianity, and Capitalism.
If anyone’s not familiar with prosperity teaching, you can familiarize yourself with it and get a few laughs from these videos televangelist Robert Tilton:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6waXPTSrGiA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wAAIY1MkKSI&feature=related
The author(s) of those YouTube segments–the one who inserted fart tracks into what appears to be Tilton’s talking–is certainly insightful and clever.
What a blast from the past! The Tilton video has been around for about 20 years - I can even remember seeing it play in a bar in Dallas back in the mid 80s. We had taped it on VHS once, but it got lost years ago. It was so appropriate; Tilton was certainly full of hot air (and more). I could go on and on about his transgressions.
While it may not be culturally significant, it sure made my day to see it again. thanks Shibbo!
“It’s not the brand of Christianity I associate with”
This borne again brand of Christianity is a social club/business model with a lot of dumb members believing they are holier than god. It is perhaps stupidity at its finest in under educated house holds.
The Lord worketh in mysterious ways….
Televangelism is also a form of drive thru Christianity with idiots at the helm. Say and believes such a phrase (I take blah blah etc) and you will go to heaven. Now donate 10 percent for the rest of your life and you shall be free.
Televangelism is almost better than running a casino. No product or service is sold. Just show up and pay and let the evangelicals collect. A perfect business model in my opinion.
Social club/Business model is a spot on description. Back in the 80s, when I was considering going to a Christian college, I was put off by how much the Christian students reminded me of salesmen (more of an Amway quality). They talked like every conversation was an opportunity for a sales pitch. And the students that didn’t talk like that seemed oddly out of place.
I’m a universalist myself. I don’t believe in hell, so that excludes me from the mainstream. But I’ve been keeping my eye on the mainstream for awhile. Mainstream Christianity has changed a lot since I was a kid. It’s more charasmatic, a lot of emphasis on emotional experiences, entertainment and rock and roll, and people whose idea of “walking with Jesus” has romantic undertones.
I am good and fed up with these televangelists preaching the gospel of “vote for such and such, he is the Devine One.”
I went round and round with some relatives on that one. Even after this stinking pile of dogshit they are leaving behind as their legacy, some in the family STILL believe that when any of the Bush clan open up their mouths it is GOD talking.
Then I guess you’re equally apalled at all of the black churches that supported Obama. Good.
Speaking of which: the One declared himself during the campaign to be opposed to gay marriage. I wonder if the Prop 8 opponents are going to castigate him as a bigoted, benighted opponent of human dignity. And the black churches, which overwhelmingly supported Prop 8, as repositories of cruel, stupid, backward thinking.
President-elect Barry opposed gay marriage AND prop 8 during the campaign season in what could only be characterized as world class flip flopping. The guy is a consummate politician.
Be afraid, be very afraid.
I guess you never heard of PTL founder Jim Bakker, and his lovely wife Tammy Faye? If I recall correctly, PTL was an acronym for “pass the loot.”
I always thought it hilarious that the Bakkers and Paul/Jan Crouch had a falling out in the early 70’s over how to split the loot. Crooks never like being cheated.
Two words:
Creflo Dollar.
“Two words:
Creflo Dollar.”
Best name EVER for a preacher.
Like a lawyer in Escondido, CA…Gary Kreep.
money and religion are like oil and water…???????????????????
More like water and water they mix very well. Religion is all about money and political/military power and controlling the masses.
“‘Like the Bible says: ‘The borrower is the servant to the lender,’ Sauer said. ‘I am enslaved.’”
Come on, Sauer… Just walk away from those alligators and be over with your mindless drivel. Yawn.
Unexpected benefit of the housing bust; one less prostheletyzing nutjob for the US to clean up after.
The Lord worketh in mysterious ways….
I dunno…he owned multiple infestment properties, and the way the gubmint works these days, I won’t be surprised at all if the rest of us somehow end up paying for his foreclosures.
Look in the irony of his statement. Clearly he knows biblical scripture at some basic level yet he did not heed that wise proverb that nearly every Christian can quote, chapter and verse. It was GREED that motivated him to ignore the obvious risk of overleverage and march to the slaughterhouse.
The fact that countless other 28 year olds engage in such risky endeavors speaks to a much greater problem in this country. Prior to the 1980’s this type of risk taking wasn’t necessary to earn a living, hence, wasn’t common, yet here we are.
Earn a living or keep up with the Jones’?
RE: Holiday spending.
If a temp being trampled to death at a Long Island Wal-Mart by the stampede of shoppers intent on “getting their flat-screen TV, dammit!” doesn’t make people re-prioritize, a recession won’t do it.
95% of people will stop spending when they literally can’t do it anymore; ie: no cash and no credit. Then as soon as they get a little of either again, they will return to their old habits. End of story.
Mark Twain’s cat would never again sit on any stove once it sat on a hot one.
Since humans have managed to do bubbles over and over, I assume cats are smarter.
I live with a couple of cats. They show more common sense than some of the people I know.
Yeah, but you ever given them a couple of hundred and turned them lose in a catnip store?
“I live with a couple of cats. They show more common sense than some of the people I know.” I don’t know about that. Ever seen a hungry person eat raw potato peelings? One of my cats did that after being out & about for 3 days without coming home. He was so hungry when he returned he attacked whatever was near his food dish. It was an awesome sound and sight.
“I don’t know about that. Ever seen a hungry person eat raw potato peelings?”
You’ve never been in the subway. Have you?
combotechie
zeke
Dennis
L.iC.
tresho
PET ESSAY WRITERS — All of you!!
http://www.jossip.com/pet-loving-author-cancels-million-dollar-essay-contest-after-only-38-people-tried-to-win-her-house-20080618/
ROTFLMAO
What he said.
Ahhhh…but that story is Long Island.
I haven’t quite figured out the secret trick that all LIers seem to know (except for me) but money is always plenty, there is always something to buy that can put your neighbor to shame, your lawn will always need to look nicer than your neighbors, an SUV in every driveway, a giant LCD TV in every living room…….
I could go on but I’m getting mildly sick…
I saw a report on the news this morning that one of the people that broke down the Walmart door and trampled that poor man was heard saying “I’ve been on line for two days” and proceeded to shop.
Danni from LawngIsland
I saw a report on the news this morning that one of the people that broke down the Walmart door and trampled that poor man was heard saying “I’ve been on line for two days” and proceeded to shop.
The tramplers should be imprisioned. They’re simply too stupid to roam free, considering the same merchandise was on the shelves Wednesday.
Bunch of animals in clothing.
He’s the hairy-handed gent who ran amuck in Kent
Lately he’s been overheard in Mayfair
You better stay away from him, he’ll rip your lungs out Jim
But hey, I’d like to meet his tailor
Hey when there’s bargains at WalMart, get out of my way!!!
The bargains are great but the speed bumps really throw off your timing.
I smell a lawsuit coming down Walmart’s way.
RE: 95% of people will stop spending when they literally can’t do it anymore; ie: no cash and no credit. Then as soon as they get a little of either again, they will return to their old habits. End of story.
No doubt in my mind that anyone involved in consumption to the extent they would place themselves in circumstances like that which lead to the Wal-Mart trampling; has a brain chemical addiction on scale with tootin’ blow or shootin’ junk.
The only difference being that in order to pay for their score, they use plastic instead of smash and grab.
At dinner last night my friend’s ditzy wife told me she intended to go all out for Christmas gifts as usual, and that it is everyone’s patriotic duty to spend and support the retailers. She believes we can spend our way out of this little downturn. If she was married to me- she wouldn’t be.
What does that say about your friend that married the ditz?
She has other positive attributes.
Maybe 2 positive attributes that are really a “pair?”
“Matt Sauer, a young, single mortgage broker, planned to get rich quick after graduating from college. By age 28, he owned properties in Pacific Beach, Las Vegas and Florida. Today, the houses are underwater, and Sauer’s dreams of quitting his job to become a Christian missionary are on hold because of his financial obligations.”
“‘Like the Bible says: ‘The borrower is the servant to the lender,’ Sauer said. ‘I am enslaved.’”
============================================================
Matt’s gonna have do some ‘missionary” work to pay off that trifecta of too much…
Here’s a good one confirming that many people will crowd into one house if times are tough
http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_11088957?source=rss_viewed
” early 2006, Rodney, Lydia and their daughter, Adia, were
living large. As a real estate agent, Lydia was working 15-hour days making $150,000 at the peak of the housing boom. Rodney worked as a union fire-sprinkler installer pulling in $80,000.
Christmas back then meant filling a basket at Toys R Us. Rodney indulged his hobby of collecting vintage BMX bicycle parts, filling his workshop out back. Lydia booked a trip to Puerto Vallarta and invited the rest of her family to join them at a 10-bedroom, nine-bathroom villa that came complete with a butler, maid and chef.”
People suddenly stumbling to a small fortune never really get it. It’s like people that win the lottery. It all goes downhill from there. Basically they lose everything.
If they lived within their means, they would’ve saved enough to get back on their feet. They got money, and they need to spend it right away.
Great..they made $230,000 for maybe a couple of years but spend a vacation that may cost $25,000 is ludricous.
How about the part about “collecting vintage BMX bicycle parts”? I’ve never heard of such a hobby.
I have a different hobby. Paying off my debts. Unfortunately I have completely run out of debt :-).
I like that Mercury News - American Apparel ad with the young fine a$$ed lady showing a camel toe shot. Some things never go out of style!
I just looked up their website. Take a look at #84 “shelly from Mexico city”…
“David Ortega, a training store manager at the 7-Eleven in Citrus Heights, Calif., that got more than 100 applications, noted that many applicants have management experience — including those who owned construction businesses. The store in a suburb of Sacramento, which has been hard hit by the housing slump, usually saw candidates who came straight out of high school, he said. One recent applicant — a former manager in cosmetics at Macy’s — even wrote him a thank-you note for discussing the $8.50 per hour job.”
Old thank-you note: Please consider my offer on your home, I can go a bit more if I have to.
New thank-you note: Please consider my offer to work for you.
Lad, interesting article in today’s Salt Lake Tribune on the Colo River and drought, some on California. sltrib dot com
Lost, Thanks-nice article…
Where are you at nowadays?
Twain Harte, leaving for Utah in a couple of hours, though.
Some nice colors going on amongst the trees right now, especially next to creeks & rivers…
Have a nice drive back~
Thanks, the Sierras are beautiful. Enjoyed them a lot. Yo Semite was breathtaking.
I am suspicious of “labor shortage” stories, but this one looks legit. From KOB DOT COM: “Roswell {NM} companies have trouble hiring
For one New Mexico community, it’s getting more and more difficult to hire people during the holidays because many job applicants can’t pass a drug screening.
According to a manager at Wal-Mart in Roswell, they’re not fully staffed, even with Black Friday right around the corner. The same goes for the local cable company.”
There is no such thing as a “shortage”. There is only a “shortage” at a given price.
If they have trouble finding drug-free applicants then they should raise the wages until they get enough applicants who do not partake of whatever it is that the employer objects to.
This is Econ 101 stuff not rocket science.
Exactly, Pusstcat. That’s the way that competitive, free market capitalism is supposed to work. If you can’t sell your house, lower the price. If Walmart’s not getting enough job applicants for their stores, they should increase the wages that they are offering or improve the benefits or working conditions.
I’m sure that if you talked to the executives at Walmart, they would claim to love the free enterprise system. The reality on the ground in New Mexico shows their true attitude.
I don’t know , I know a few 50 yr olds that never worked a meaningful job because of their love for weed. A few others that stayed in their current jobs for years because a new one would require a drug test. Sad, but true.
I have returned to Sarasota Fl for the next three months and after my winter stay and than return to St. Louis Mo. The economic collapse of this area is shocking considering the relative prosperity of St. Louis. It has also been very dry here which reinforces the drab surroundings. More businesses are displaying “going out of business” banners. People I talk to are very pessimistic about the overall situation. I do not know what is going to happen but the trend is not for the better.
Florida has been in a economic depression since early 07. I suspect it will be like that for another few years. Wait till the Neg Amers start dumping their so called “Million dollar homes now worth 50 cents on the dollar.”
It will get even worse! Hubby was just down there in SFL and described the area as the “walking dead.” He did say however that Boca Raton and Adventura seem to be immune to the downturn as shops and restaurants were busy. However, those areas were always “real wealth” not equity liners.
Always?!?
I take it you haven’t heard of the Mizner Brothers, and their little “promotional scheme” about Boca Raton.
re: Mizner Brothers
‘In the 1890s, the two brothers traveled to the Alaska Gold Rush. Gold, however, wasn’t their goal. They went to Alaska to trim suckers. Addison had already been trained as an architect. Wilson was the adventurer. In Alaska, they ran “badger games”, setting up wealthy married men with prostitutes and then blackmailing them. Their con games eventually sent them fleeing for their lives. ‘
From today’s Cleveland DOT COM: “An unusual Black Friday in Greater Cleveland: Short lines, slow-moving specials — Black Friday shopping is normally a madhouse when only die-hard souls dare to venture out. But for the most part across Northeast Ohio, the stores were not terribly crowded this year, the lines weren’t long and stores still had a lot of their door-buster specials available by late morning — hours after they had opened.”
I wasn’t going to participate, but wound up doing so anyway. Got a Thanksgiving email from a Cleveland computer store about a 2GB RAM memory chip for my laptop, net cost $13, marked down from about $50. The afternoon weather turned pleasant, so I drove down to see if any chips were left at 4 pm. The store was at the edge of a large retail area, and the traffic was very heavy. I thought they’d be sold out, but not so.
You may be interested to know that Greater Vancouver November home sales are DOWN 70% YOY.
Pop!,
Is this Vancouver, Canada or Vancouver, Washington?
That would be Vancouver, B.C. (Often referred to as “The Greater Vancouver Mainland”. I have no idea as to why, though.)
Canada
We’re eagerly waiting the official November benchmark pricing for SFH. It might be a decline of legendary proportions.
Employers can pick and choose now, imagine being the person doing the hiring for 7-11’s?
I’d want to have 6 over-degreed-greed-degrees of separation employees, maybe a engineer for swing shift, and a city planner for graveyard?
Actually, you wouldn’t. They’d be so bitter they’d wreck the store.
Agree 100%.
The best workers, from what I have seen, are the ones who have endured extensive and prolonged economic pain and are very greatful to become gainfully employed once again.
The newly-minted edumacated fast-track wannabees aren’t there yet (but stay tuned).
I dunno.
I’ve met quite a few who are very motivated, and work hard as long as nobody screws with them. They tend to be very talented too.
However, many (most?) employers are in the game of trying to screw talent over so …
Wasn’t it Circuit City that fired all of the people they had given raises to over the years to replace them with minum wage slaves.
It may have been CC. But it was also Sun Electric, now defunct. (Former NYSE ticker: SE) I and others with years of repair experience were replaced by entry level, fresh out of tech school. It didn’t work. Company went belly-up.
Also they would be trying to take your job….being better qualified and all!
“Matt Sauer, a young, single mortgage broker, planned to get rich quick after graduating from college. By age 28, he owned properties in Pacific Beach, Las Vegas and Florida. Today, the houses are underwater, and Sauer’s dreams of quitting his job to become a Christian missionary are on hold because of his financial obligations.”
Matt is giving up on the missionary position? But what are his alternatives?
Luv,
Jen
Doggie?
Well, well, well, if our dear ol’ friend the JT doesn’t make his appearance again!
Wouldn’t this be a great time to walk away and become a missionary? Give up the material world and all that or is his idea of a missionary patterned after Jim Baker etc, etc.?
Are you kiddin’?
The Sweet Baby Jeebus™ wants them to be rich, Rich, RICH!
He should go with the Jim Jones motif. After all, he did drink the kool-aid. Jonestown, Guyana or bust.
“Matt is giving up on the missionary position? But what are his alternatives?”
…………bend over and grab his ankles????
“Elaine worked as a loan processor. Her husband was a mortgage broker. She says they cleared somewhere north of $100,000 a year and had no trouble supporting themselves and their two small children — until the housing market crashed. And now?”
“They defaulted on their home loan in January and quickly burned through about $20,000 dollars in savings, so now most expenses are going on credit cards.
You would think the reporter might have asked: “Shouldn’t you and your husband have known better since you were both in the mortgage business?”
I have zero sympathy for people who were fully informed of how the whole business works and still were irresponsible. Perhaps we should take their kids away to some orphanage and let Elaine and her husband fend for themselves.
…..and the horse they rode in on.
These Mortgage Brokers are Really screwed, used to 6 figure incomes and no brains or skills. Talk about peaking early!
Word for Word
The Housing-Bubble and the American Revolution
Hulton Archive/Getty Images
INSURRECTION Members of the Sons of Liberty raise a “Liberty Pole” to protest the rule of King George III.
By TIM ARANGO
Published: November 29, 2008
When Benjamin Franklin returned to America in 1762, after almost five years in London, he was shocked at the housing prices.
“The expence of living is greatly advanc’d in my absence,” he commented. “Rent of old houses, and value of lands … are trebled in the past six years.”
Franklin, it seems, had come home to a real estate bubble. It eventually popped — bringing on a credit crunch and deep recession that was the macroeconomic backdrop to the American Revolution.
Sound familiar?
The parallels between the current economy and the one Franklin saw highlight a debate among historians: how big a role did economics, as opposed to ideas, play in fomenting revolution?
“I think there’s reason to doubt the Revolution would have happened as it did if it weren’t for these economic conditions,” said Ronald W. Michener, an economics professor at the University of Virginia, in a radical departure from today’s popular notion that the Revolution was a product primarily of grand ideas about self-government.
…
Professor Michener and his collaborator, Robert W. Wright, a financial historian at New York University, plan to do just that. The tandem worked for several years on a manuscript arguing that the American Revolution was a direct result of the economic malaise that followed the French and Indian War.
Now they have a built-in marketing hook — the current financial crisis — and the publisher, Yale University Press, is hoping to bring the book out as early as next fall. “What I found was that the monetary difficulties faced by the colonies were not very different from modern macroeconomic problems,” Mr. Michener said.
it was a war about taxes
not many could read and those that could weren’t reading Plato’s Republic
Housing cannot contract to below zero percent of U.S. production — or can it? What if we undergo years of a negative wealth effect due to the drag of an unprecedented glut of recently-built, unneeded, supersized homes on our collective prosperity?
Housing Hit to U.S. Economy Nearing End, Economist Minack Says
By Carlos Torres
Nov. 28 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. housing-market slump has been so severe it’s almost “impossible” for declines in residential construction to hurt the world’s largest economy as much in 2009, said Morgan Stanley’s Gerard Minack.
As housing’s share of gross domestic product has diminished, so too will its influence on growth, Minack, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley Australia Ltd. in Sydney, said in a note to clients.
“It is now (almost) impossible for housing to detract as much from GDP growth next year as it has this year,” wrote Minack. “This may have been an extreme cycle for housing, but it is a cycle — and it seems clear it is in the latter stages of decline.”
The biggest plunge in homebuilding in a quarter century has left housing accounting for just 3.3 percent of U.S. GDP as of last quarter, near a record low and well below the long-term average of around 4.5 percent, according to Minack.
Are you kiddin’? It’s gonna act as a drag for years.
It’s like taking one fraction of your productive economy and shutting it down for the next 5-10 years because you’ve dragged all that demand forward.
This is Bastiat again - ignoring the unseen in favor of the seen.
Then there’s commercial real estate, which is just cresting, IMHO.
Been talking to a few people in commercial RE, and it’s getting scary for them.
Family and I took a spin through the backroads of western CT… towns of New Fairfield, Sherman, Kent, Gaylordsville and Quaker Hill on the NY of the ridge. Note that Quaker Hill is a haven for the truly wealthy who have nothing better to do but pretend “farm”. Anyways, these areas saw a huge build out of gargantuan houses built in the last 7 years. We’re talking minimum of 3500sq ft monstrosities, one after another, road after road, mile after mile. What we saw on this holiday weekend of rest that we’ve never noted before is MANY of these ghastly abominations to architecture had independent trade work trucks and vans parked in the driveway. Residential hacker type trades, not big construction. We’re talking trades for housing like plumbers, landscaping, electrician, carpentry etc. We also saw quite a bit of ongoing shack construction in various stages, even site preparation. It appears that declining RE sales hasn’t worked it’s way through the network to the production level around here. I can only surmise that all these houses with trade trucks parked at them are company owners/partners as the average schmuck couldn’t afford these monster houses. It’s going to be ugly for these owners eventually, once the decline works it’s way into the supply chain. Assuming they’re financed that is.
Hey Exeter,
I saw your reply on the other thread. Brace me for the horrors of NY when I return: is it bad?
I’ve seen the over development in the Rochester area. I can handle it. Is it worse or I am all rosy-eyed?
Muggy I was speaking generally. Some of the equity banditry that typically seeks out sunshine states like Florida was diverted to upstate NY, VT, NH and ME during the bubble years. There was also the 9/11 fear mongering that drove a multitude of dopes from NY/NJ/CT metro areas to those same destinations in their storybook search for Nirvana. The final element that drove prices skyhigh in upstate were those of lower income scales from metro areas who couldn’t afford buying in their native areas and sought out what they believed were cheap prices to the north. In this case, I know some couples who are split between locations. One spouse stays in NYC vicinity during the week and works only to commut upstate on weekends. The other spouse stays upstate fulltime attempting to eek out a living at $8 an hour jobs.
Do a text search for NYCBoy’s post yesterday about the old standby BS line that “we never had a bubble so prices won’t fall”. He succinctly and correctly stated that those areas that supposedly never saw a bubble should’ve continued their long term secular economic decline (all of the northeast apart from the tri-state metro region and boston), hence falling prices instead of staying flat. I don’t know many areas in the northeast that didn’t double or triple during the bubble years though. Most of the moronic talk of “we had no bubble” is just painful heel digging among those who desperately hope for a brighter economic future and refuse to concede that the resumption of the economic decline is inevitable.
“What we saw on this holiday weekend of rest that we’ve never noted before is MANY of these ghastly abominations to architecture had independent trade work trucks and vans parked in the driveway.”
Exactly. I’ve recently posted similar observations; working class grunts living large, really large!
Oh yeah, that’s totally the case. At the start of this boom I was making digital maps of my region and that required heavy fieldwork in every neighborhood and suburb of Chicagoland.
It was very obvious from what we saw on the streets that the contractors themselves dove in head first.
Talk about buying too much “stock” in your own company!
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-11-29 14:57:41
Pop!,
Is this Vancouver, Canada or Vancouver, Washington?
Don’t be a goose. Vanacouver, B.C.
I dunno, it’s no big deal to pick up a few DVD movies for $20 at BestBuy as a small gift for good friends, etc.
Amazon had a killer sale this week on DVD and Blu-Ray movies, so sitting out good deals seems a pointless exercise. The reason one would sit out a Housing Bubble, is because the numbers don’t make sense. But buying movies at 70 to 80% off — those numbers certainly work for me.
I dunno, it’s no big deal to pick up a few DVD movies for $20 at BestBuy as a small gift for good friends, etc.
Amazon had a killer sale this week on DVD and Blu-Ray movies, so sitting out good deals seems a pointless exercise. The reason one would sit out a Housing Bubble, is because the numbers don’t make sense. But buying movies at 70 to 80% off — those numbers certainly work for me.
—
wiT5yARhCic7AchElDev5anKzEeE0Cle
test
“Matt Sauer, a young, single mortgage broker, planned to get rich quick after graduating from college. ”
This man is a true Christian who clearly accepted Jesus Christ as his Lord and Savior. Following the example of Jesus Christ, who created piles of money out of thin air and who flipped waterfront properties on the Sea of Galilee, Mr. Sauer sought to get rich quick in his 20s.
His failure is not his fault. It is the work of Satan.
My wife and I drove up to Rancho Santa Margarita tonite to see a movie. We noticed that one of the nicer, more expensive restaurants called OPAH up there closed their doors. Found out it was the day before Thanksgiving when they closed. Another sign of the times.
One of the “under the radar” retail bankruptcies I just heard about is the formerly preppy staple Talbot’s. I’m shocked, I tell you, shocked. Really. This place used to outfit many of the upper middle class ladies in New England and one of my in laws was a manager there years ago. They had quality clothing and were around for years and years.
It’s just too weird, established companies that have been around for years not being able to survive the bust.
That is surprising. Didnt they start out in Pasadena? My mom used to shop there years ago and they always carried nice upscale (but not too expensive) clothing.
I noticed they went into 3 or 4 mall locations in our area (Orange County CA) so maybe the expansion is what killed them in this bad economy.
The Bailout Bunch
Here`s the story of Ben Bernanke
who took over for Greenspan on his own
there were bad loans and banks were failing
but he was all alone
Here`s the story of a man named Paulson
Who knew the Wall Street problems all too well
they were both screwed and they knew it
so they said what the hell
So then Paulson and Bernanke went to congress
and they knew that it was much more than a hunch
that the three would somehow form a family
that`s the way they all became the bailout bunch
The bailout bunch , the bailout bunch
That`s the way they became the bailout bunch
With Angelo Mozzillo as
Alice