Bits Bucket For November 30, 2008
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Is a Decembris Revolt going to take place, on account of circumcision of credit?
Is that when you get the best tips from a moil?
term moil comes after turmoil.
It’s usually transliterated “mohel” (מוהל).
Here’s an interesting tombstone I saw in a Warsaw cemetery earlier this year.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/tppllc/2417541971/
It was the stone for a mohel. Note the carvings of the hands with a knife on it!
I hope he was good at what he did
Ironic how you posted that photo at the “flickr” site.
Did you ever ask yourself, why the Catholics call New Years Day, ‘The Feast of the Circumcision”…..I always wondered what they did with all those left over fore-skins….Skewed or Bar-B-Qued anyone????
1. Ecofeco, thank your for recommending Spybot, it worked. I wasted a lot of time with other programs. I suspect the virus was from the board my wife frequents - a lot of users there caught it.
2. I was at Panera this morning, guzzling coffee, when I noticed a guy coming and going about 5 times in 15 minutes. I don’t know why he thought nobody noticed, but every time he came in, he grabbed a handful of bagel samples by the front door. Sad. I mean, I also wanted to kick his ass, but still… just sad.
3. Update: I think it was about 1/2 a year ago we discussed the island owned by 311’s lead singer in the FL Keys. The price has dropped from $10 million to $4 million and now includes 2 boats, a parcel of land on the mainland, and whatever else is out there. Beautiful Disaster.
4. I used to post a bunch of arson links (because I like FIRE! FIRE!) but I’ve noticed, at least in the Tampa area, there aren’t many “suspicious” fires anymore. Are they giving up on arson, too? Is real estate still “hot” in your area?
re your bagle chip guy…
My parents pointed out a furniture store in a shopping plaza near their place (we called them strip malls when I was a kid, but whatever). The store serves free ice cream, popcorn and some other junk food to increase foot traffic. They told me they know of some people who go every day just to have something to eat or to make their food bank stuff go further.
Hmm… you could go to Costco on the weekends and hit up the Bristol Farms in my area daily and not go hungry due to the samples.
Every time I go to Costco I can fill up the kid tummies on samples.
There tummies get full and my wallet gets lighter. $200-$300 at a time. The gas is cheap though $1.75 in the I.E.
Muggy, you’re welcome. I’m surprised the post made it through. Didn’t show on my end. Glad to hear you had success. It’s part of my arsenal for my business.
Yeah, I’m a professional computer geek.
I have a nominee for best relative comment from over the holiday. This one is not as obvious as some (its different here, everyone wants to live here, etc.) but it has the advantage of being very very simple. I was talking to my mother about the economy in the area in MA where she and my dad bought their retirement condo (Bellingham, MA which is fairly far south and near the end of one of the commuter train lines to Boston). I asked what the local economy was based on. She talked about a lot of skilled blue collar jobs - electrician, plummer, etc. I said that there would still be some work for some of them, but much much less, and that would lower incomes, and cause people to cut spending, which would affect the local businesses causing some of them to go under or be much less profitable, causing those people to cut back, etc. Pretty standard stuff and I was not all that harsh in my descriptions.
Her response?
“I don’t know how you can get up in the morning believing what you believe.”
Hey, at least this time I was not accused of wanting the economy to collapse - I’ve heard that one a few times this year too.
Hang in there Polly.
“She talked about a lot of skilled blue collar jobs - electrician, plummer, etc.”
I grew up in just such a neighborhood. Because of the holiday I spent some extra time there this weekend. The place has always crawled with contractor’s vans - now there seem to be even more. And, as I posted the other week there are now more with out of state plates joining the ranks of the locals. That crowd is in for a big hurt as house maintenance is defferred more and more. The competition amongst them is only getting more intense as their numbers swell and the jobs dwindle.
It is interesting that this is where they ended up. I grew up in a middle-middle class neighborhood of an upper-middle class town. The teachers, cops, firemen, nurses and my elementary school janitor were all on our street while the doctors, lawyers and engineers lived across town. I’m not sure that our neighborhood/town ever really suffered the way other places did in past recessions, though God knows, we lived very frugally when I was a kid - I think I was 10 or 12 before my mother every bought a pair of every day shoes that wasn’t from the $5 bin of vinyl monstrosities in Bradlees. This may be the first time they really, really have seen a severe recession up close and personal, rather than through the news.
Understand totally. My family can’t stand me as I talk about economic reality. So I avoid as much as I can and work at not sounding harsh. Can’t do the happy media smile though.
My sister the warlord (literally, she’s a high-up in the munitions biz, and lords over quite a flock) and her devout neo-con husband have been in utter denial and remain so.
I knew my brother-in-law had gone over the edge about this time last year, when he told me in all certainty “That terrorists are everywhere in our country”.
I didn’t have the balls @ that particular time to explain how correct he was, however in a financial sense.
I watched my sister glad-hand her way up the Krupporate Ladder, smoking expensive cigars with the boys, wine-snobbing, networking.
They “own” 3 houses, and sis is still pulling down the big bucks, pretty certain about the war machine keepin’ on.
Of course, it’s all a delusion.
She’s gonna crash hard, she lived so high on the hog.
A lot of you wonder why I care about helping out a few of you with my timeless tip of tangible?
I want to see my sister fall to the bottom, where because i’m the only one one in my family that planned ahead, I can pick her up, and let her see the big picture, with some modicum of comfort.
I’ll be glad to pay for her food and the rent on an apartment, for her and hers.
I can help out a lot of family & friends in this manner, and plan to, when push meets shove.
“I want to see my sister fall to the bottom, where because i’m the only one one in my family that planned ahead, I can pick her up, and let her see the big picture, with some modicum of comfort.”
Your gold obsession is all about sibling rivalry? Really?
That may be the strangest manifestation of this psychological phenomenon I have ever seen.
polly,
My big picture is like many of your big pictures, i’d suspect.
I have a couple hundred people i’d know by what their voice sounded like, or what their face looked like, and of those, there’s a small number we hold dear to us.
That’s my world.
Why not help them out if things get dire?
Wow! To wish something like that on kin. She must have done something unspeakable to you when you were kids.
“I watched my sister glad-hand her way up the Krupporate Ladder”
The Arms of Krupp by the late William Manchester is a great book. I would recommend anything by Manchester. A World Lit Only By Fire was one of my favorites and shows that we haven’t moved very far ahead over the millenia.
My favorite from Manchester, was the story of the g.i. that spoke Japanese (white guy) and he was a translator on some troop-ship headed east, shooting from the hip-as in he didn’t know any Japanese aside from a few words, and he filled the heads of soldiers with ad hoc gibberish, en-route.
I wonder what that must of sounded like to the Japanese, when we yelled out “come out with your hands up”" in faux-foe speak on the battleground?
The best story was about how Manchester gained weight to get into the military. He was told to eat as many bananas and drink as much milk as possible. He made the weight and then began to throw up violently. The officer nearby told him, “just keep throwing up until you feel something fuzzy in your throat. That is your a–hole. You’re going to want to keep that.”
Somehow that story seems fitting for all the gluttonous FBs out there.
Aladinsane, you’re hoping for financial ruin for your sister and her family, so you can rush in and play charitable hero? What a guy. I guess the need to be right outweighs everything in your life. What makes this even more horrifying is that you THINK (with unwavering conviction) that you’re evolved, and that anyone who doesn’t agree with you on sundry issues is a fool. How malicious would you have to be to even question your own ethics?
That’s ok. Alad never read the Constitution and thinks America should have absolutely no defense.
I think the Lad’s message is, and correct me if I’m wrong, is that the sister is marching to her own destruction. The sooner it happens the better off she will be. I’m not passing judgment on this one.
I have a BIL profiting from the war machine in Iraq. I think he thinks it will go on forever. I don’t think he will destroy his family but his attitude sure won’t help.
I never gloated about profiting from this war in Iraq. That’s my distinction. Probably because my father became blind from a wound during his service in the war against Japan, and he taught me that war is hell.
I am against this war in Iraq. But I think the U.S. never finished what it should have finished in Afghanistan - pulled out too early, and should have invaded Pakistan as well.
Ideally, the U.S. should have never been involved in the Middle East and should have pulled out before the fall of the Shah of Iran in the 1970s. Also should have not sent one penny of taxpayer dollar to foreign aid.
The word “defense” does not mean offense. But it does not discount retaliatory force - hence my favor of stomping out Al Quaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Once done with retaliatory force, return back to the U.S. and its territories.
I’m with the Lad on this one. It’s not about wishing for his sister’s financial demise. It’s about recognizing that the gravy train called the War on Terror, i.e. perpetual war for perpetual peace, can’t go on like this forever. Having served in the military, I can attest to the massive fraud, waste, and abuse that is endemic in the Armed Forces, especially since 9/11. Massive “defense” spending doesn’t necessarily equate to strengthened security.
I think Lad’s point was that his sister and her fellow members of the military-industrial complex have been ridding high on the hog for years, and now they, along with everybody else, are going to need to tighten their belts. He’ll be there to help her out once her free-spending ways catch up with her. Is that such a bad thing?
“Ideally, the U.S. should have never been involved in the Middle East and should have pulled out before the fall of the Shah of Iran in the 1970s. Also should have not sent one penny of taxpayer dollar to foreign aid.”
+1 Well said, Bill.
Most of the engineers I know in the defense industry (after 23 years and working all over the U.S. I know a lot of them) live well below their means. Your sister must be a high level manager, not a regular engineer. Quite a few of us, however, are libertarians (I agree with the libertarians but I properly label myself “liberal” to separate me from the bible thumpers and anti-choice element).
“Most of the engineers I know in the defense industry (after 23 years and working all over the U.S. I know a lot of them) “live well below their means”.”
I work with engineers too, and you’re right. Funny thing, the lowest paid people at my office drive the newest cars and trucks. Most of them also have past bankruptcy judgements.
“I properly label myself ‘liberal’ to separate me from the bible thumpers and anti-choice element.”
Oh no, the “anti-choice” element. You mean the people who think living human fetuses have rights? People like the Dalai Lama, for instance, who never thumped a bible in his life? Or Mother Teresa, who lived without heating, air conditioning, or even a matress, and went out daily with a begging bowl for her own food, because the order she started insisted its members live no better than the poorest of the poor? Or Mahatma Gandhi, who said “”It seems to be clear as daylight that abortion would be a crime?”
The phrases “pro-choice” and “anti-choice” were contrived by a marketers in the 1970s on behalf of NARAL, an abortion industry organization that has spent millions promoting a billion-dollar cash cow (abortion). The anti-abortion or pro-life movement includes millions of non-fundamentalist Christians and non-Christians, all of whom are conveniently ignored by the Press and “pro-choice” zealots. I know many of them, and not one of them has ever tried to convert me (I am not a Christian), or quoted scripture to me, or done anything that fits the stereotype. Of course, the Press always zeros in on the fringe element to paint all pro-lifers as crackpots, but the irony is that most pro-lifers consider the fringe element crackpots, too.
The first Right-to-Life meetings in the late 1960s were held in ACLU offices in New York. Right-to-Life’s undeserved fundamentalist modern image and the historical reality differ dramatically.
How about this one, from the wife.
“I’m not going to listen to you saying I told you so for the next ten years!” And she agreed with me.
There is certainly little to celebrate, given the losses the decisions of so many people have generated. In many cases the gains were privitized, the losses were socialized.
All you can say is if you are used to living within your means, your quality of life probably won’t be going down as much as those who were not living within their means. If you stay employed.
I hope this country will, at some point, resume building toward the future rather than cashing it in for an easier present.
“If you stay employed.”
The key to prosperity amid the pending chaos.
By the way, we stopped off at a Walmart around 11:00 on Friday when some rain shut down the petting zoo where we were taking my 21 month old niece. Her parents needed some new sippy cups and a booster chair, now that the high chair isn’t really needed. There were plenty of spaces in the parking lot, though the store was hardly empty. They had a whole row of strapping young men standing near boxes of flat screen tv’s - guess the early bird specials didn’t sell out even when there was plenty of help to carry your purchase to check out and your car. When did Walmart become THE place for personal service? And there were tons of Garmin Nuvi GPS (200’s?) units sitting there on special for $97. My brother got one. I’d like a GPS, but I’m constitutionally incapable of jumping in without researching the heck out of a purchase. Just can’t do it.
I stopped off at IKEA on my way home from the airport to pick up some wrapping paper. Not empty, but I’ve seen it a lot more crowded and there was only one person ahead of me in line. I did not see any signs for x% off your purchase if you take out an IKEA credit card. I did see signs where they are offering a 3% credit back if you pay with your debit card. Nothing special for cash payers.
I’m sure it is no secret, but my cousin assured me that Pizzeria Uno’s is in trouble. She says their debt is killing them. My parents frequent the local one, and the manager told them that he would be in trouble if it weren’t for the bar receipts.
9 am this morning: Wal-mart parking lot nearly empty. This is the same parking lot that was packed Friday morning. I guess the folks are done shopping. I wonder how Cyber Monday will turn out.
And btw, the analyst on Nightly Business Report (Hillary Kramer) says to avoid buying stock in mid-level restaurants like Uno’s and Applebees. They suffer most because the middle class doesn’t have the money or leisure time for Uno’s — people just pick up a couple 12″ from Subway. And did you notice how many fast-food places are shamelesssly hawking a Value Menu?
SF Bay area (Far eastbay)….in a newly constructed strip mall a stone’s throw from my house (and across from a Walmart)…a new “Wetzels Pretzels” and adjacent chicken wing outfit opened and closed….took about 6 weeks total.
They’re building a new one in the next Michigan town over from us. I think they’re nuts. The one that was built in our town lasted one whole year. We went there once — the price was very high considering what we got, and the poorish service. I’d hate to be the investor for the one in the town next door. His/her unit “only” has to compete with Max & Ermas, Applebees, Buffalo Wildwings, Outback, and about a million others….
Collapsing commercial rents will make small businesses viable, even here in Fantasyland. Sadly, too many small businesses focus too little on quality, customer service and consistency. Small business is like the “middle class”. When they fail it is never their fault. The middle class, whose requiem plays daily, should have plenty of opportunities from this mess. They just have to quit thinking they are rich and can live off of other people’s toil.
We have lost three restaurants within 4 miles of our house in the last 3-4 months. Damons, Back yard burgers and Fish Bone. Damons and Back Yard burgers were only a 12-18 months old and the fish bone 5 years or so.
Yum - love Back Yard Burgers. What a shame.
Our Damon’s folded also, plus an Uno’s, and a Texas Roadhouse, which replaced the Damon’s in a much-remodeled building. They expanded it, and it lasted about 18 months. That was an expensive “investment” for somebody.
On a similar note, my husband likes Halloween, his favorite time of year, so we go to the Halloween stores that spring up in Octobor. This year, in a fancy new strip mall about 3 miles from here with a lot of unrented space, I noticed a big sign up in the largest unoccupied storefront that said ” Halloween store opening soon !!”. I told my husband about it, so we stopped in when it opened up. It was by far the best-stocked store I had ever seen. It had more elaborate lawn blow-ups and thousands of costumes, door decorations, etc. The costumes were selling pretty well, but all of the other trumpery was lingering. The prices on the elaborate multi-figure lawn displays were $750 to $1000. I couldn’t believe it. With the amount of engineering layoffs from the automotives and the shutdown of the Pfizer research facility in Ann Arbor, not too many people want to spend half of a mortgage payment on a lawn display of a multi-colored lighted steaming cauldron with 5 blow-up vampires sitting around it in a tent-gazebo-y thingie costing $ 1200. It was cute, though. That particular display was so big it would take up half of a 3-door garage bay just to store. The entrepreneur was very nervous. He stood by the doors as people were going out, thanking them for coming, and checking their bags for receipts at the same time….
We’re focusing on hitting only our favorite restaurants in the hope what little business we drive to them keeps them alive. I’m not aware of any failures. But at least five are zombies.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Lane, is The Firehouse still open?
NYC Boy, I believe it is, if that`s the place over by Regent park? I have heard nothing but good things about that place but I have never been there. We are T bones people…I guess from our boating days. More of a liquid diet kind of place for us.
Lane
I highly recommend The Firehouse. We also loved Dakotas at the Arboretum, although a couple of times it seemed like they were slipping. The jalapeno muffins were great and I don’t even like jalapenos. The spinach fritters were a thing of true delight.
Some of the mom & pop restaurants - the ones that provide good food and service at reasonable prices - might weather the storm in decent shape. Their leasing costs will be lower, and the recession means that they’ll have better employees to choose from (the bane of any restaurant owner). Plus, they won’t have a bloated corporate structure to subsidize.
“I don’t know how you can get up in the morning believing what you believe.”
And those of us on this blog don’t understand how so many people can get up in the morning with their heads shoved so firmly up their a$$es. I don’t know how they walk around, all day, that way.
They got that new stomach surgury- no not a Lap band, the one where they put a window in so you can see where you’re going. I hear it’s very popular in D.C. right now……..
RE: the economy in the area in MA
Lawn mowing and leaf blowing seem to be the top current occupations here on the north shore.
The contractor trade trucks are parked at the local Dunkin Donuts all day.
Most of that type of work is done by immigrant or temporary workers from south of the border out east, it seems.
“Most”??? Try “all.”
And fast food too. I went to a Wendy’s once for gift certificates and it took them 10 minutes to find the one person on the shift that spoke English.
“Lawn mowing and leaf blowing seem to be the top current occupations here on the north shore.”
There will be a lot of blowing related jobs created by this economy. I suspect many former REICers will be doing those jobs.
“Lawn mowing and leaf blowing seem to be the top current occupations here on the north shore.”
Next door neighbors had their landscapers leaf blowing during last week’s downpour. How desperate I thought. They’re probbly just happy to be working.
Things are getting quieter on the North Shore, stores emptier. The only exception is restaurants. Had to wait for a table last night at the Chinese buffet.
Leaf blowers should be outlawed. Get a broom, fer chrissakes.
They think that the fact that you believe in this somehow caused it. This is exactly the reason why I am restrained when discussing the housing bubble with any FBs that I care about. People are very irrational and will go into great efforts to blame someone else for their misfortunes.
People are morons.
“Faith Based Economy”
If I believe I’m worth $150k/year, and I act like it (by keeping my spending and consuming up at a certain level), others might just believe it too and keep offering me employment that matches my level of spending/consuming.
No???
If, on the other hand, I choose to save money by either renting or (the horrors) just putting money in the bank, others will lose faith in me and the employment offers will be reduced accordingly.
Consider…
Yeah, it does seem a lot people think that way.
But it is at times like this that the rubber hits the road… it is now “what have you done for me lately”?
Consider the agents - there’s a profession that is all about projecting that image - yet today in 2008 America - what do they really have to contribute?
(rendering dumpster-side pleasure excluded.)
My daughter lives in Fresno, she says that when the economy gets tough, the tough get drinking, so in strip malls there bars and nightclubs are opening up (and are on month-to-month leases…). Apparently they figure they are good for a few years, then will vacate when either business gets bad or other business gets better, without having to get out of a lease.
“The formula ‘two plus two equals five’ is not without its attractions.”
Fyodor Dostoevsky
which novel and which character? I would say Ivan from the Brothers Karamazov.
Is the government going to help homeowners in California pay their property tax bills and help with mortgage relief? Those can be thousands of dollars.
Sure! Why not? We need to protect all of these “homeowners” that can’t afford the houses that they “own”. F— the renters. They don’t matter.
I don`t believe you will see that happen. The gubmint knows if they did they get 10 times more people with their hand out.
I want the nanny govt. to pay my way too, but this stink’n thing called integrity gets in the way. Bummer.
Is the government going to help homeowners in California pay their property tax bills
Er, how can the government help people pay their taxes? Where does the government get its money from?
China.
Can one of you mycophiles recommend a good encyclopedia? Prefereably one that is informative as well as decorative (it’s for my MIL and she likes for things to be pretty).
When I was a yout, I read the World Book cover to cover letter to letter.
I think it was the 1966 edition…
So did I, 1954 edition.
It scares me to learn you did the same.
You two are like two peas in a pod. Isn’t that charming?
King,
You weren’t the milkman somewhere in the greater L.A. area, circa 1960, were you?
I’ve always suspected mom had a dairy dalliance…
Daddy-Owe!
Yeah, but my history was a dozen years older.
So did I. Ours had the economy blue & silver binding cuz Mom & Dad were teachers and didn’t figure that we needed the luxury green/cream/gold binding or the library crimson/blue trim bindings. It was actually a subject of discussion at the dinner table. I guess they were trying to teach us that the value is in the quality of the doings on the inside, not the fancy model on the outside. I buy cheap, small cars, too.
We were somewhat more elite, as ours was the cream edition… ha
That means you know twice as much as I do, I guess
We had the 1924 edition - the year my mother was born. It contained a section on the aeroplane and nothing on WW2!
When I was a yout, I read the World Book cover to cover letter to letter.
Truly demented and sad.
I have found 2 complete sets of the Encyclopedia Britanica at a local recycling center/dump. It cost us nothing. It seems that with the advent of online encyclopedia’s people are tossing there rarely used Brittanica’s. (We also found a complete set of an encyclopedia on WW1}
Thanks guys, but I guess I should have been more clear I’m looking for a wild mushroom pedia.
’shrooms happen, my bad.
This is a job for Amazon. How much do you want to spend? Here’s one that looks promising, but get the used version…
http://www.amazon.com/Mushroom-Identify-Gather-Mushrooms-Other/dp/0789410737/ref=sr_1_6?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1228062006&sr=8-6
Go to Amazon… I commented with a suggestion but it hasn’t posted yet because it’s got a link. It will show up in a minute…
Will do, thanks. And I await your comment.
Can one of you mycophiles recommend..
mycophiles: mushroom friends
mycologists: mushroom experts
try amazon.. The Practical Mushroom Encyclopedia: Identifying, Picking and Cooking with Mushrooms.
unfortunately it’s paperback, but it’s also $60 so mil won’t think you’re a cheapskate..
Try this Blu.
http://www.amazon.com/Mushroom-Hunters-Field-Guide/dp/0472856103
Leigh
I have many fungi books but the two I find myself bringing along with me or keeping in my car are:
The New Savory Wild Mushroom–McKenny and Stuntz
The Encyclopedia of Mushrooms–Dickinson and Lucas
There are some pretty good sites online, too. Of course, the best resource of all is finding an old timer who lives locally and has been obsessed with mushrooms for decades. Such as Bigfoot. Getcherself one of them, and you’re utterly set up to eat like a King and/or trip like the Mad Hatter.
Also, blu, you could think about trying to grow a patch of your favorite kinds. I had good luck with oyster mushrooms and even managed a small morel patch. Morels like ashes, so I dumped all my fireplace ash in one spot and raked in some woodchips, coffee grounds, composty stuff and last spring up popped about a dozen big black morels. I’m hoping for more next spring, and am trying to decide where to install a new patch, although mushrooms in general are like pimply teenagers, they mostly appear when you don’t want them, and shun a location that ought to be perfect.
Or maybe mushrooms just hate me, because I’ve eaten so many of their brethren.
Well, scr*ew you, mushrooms! Now I’m going to eat even MORE. That’ll teach you, you squishy little jerks.
W00t!!!
I have a bunch on my list. I got some from the library, and I’m gonna buy myself some too.
W00t! W00t! Hooray, I’ve been dying to use ‘w00t’, since I read about it in an online article, but I was too shy, before. In fact, this was my very first time. * shy and modest giggle *
Say, Fasty, we ought to start circulating a mushroom book amongst the HBB. Like how for a while that Schiff book was going the rounds, via mail. What book was it again? It stopped being swapped, I notice, probably because NYCityboy got mad and threw it out the window of a ten-story building and killed an old lady with it. Admit it, NYCity!
I forgot to say that I also dumped a pot of water on the ashes that I had rinsed off morels in, so there were spores in it. Kind of a primitive innoculation.
With the oyster mushrooms I just mixed in some plug spawn into a clean bucket of coffee grounds I got at the local coffee stand, laid it in a likely spot and covered it with newspaper shreds, bark, and leaves. Pretty easy. I’m going to do it again, and not dump out the bucket, but leave it in the laundry room and see if it fruits there. Fasty, you should try that! You, too, blu.
If it works, then I won’t even have to go out the front door and waste three whole minutes. I can just toddle into the laundry room and there you go! Is my plan.
I hope it’s a better place than it turned out to be to brew beer. I stopped using the laundry room for brewing when an extra vigorous batch blew the lid off a 5-gallon carboy and sprayed the entire freakin’ room, AND the ceiling, with about 2 gallons of oatmeal stout, also including a half a dozen dainty silk embroidered nighties. Somehow my baggy and ratty old flannel jammies escaped a dousing and were all nice and dry and smug-looking.
Boy, was I mad? Yes, I sure was! Later that night found me sitting grouchily on the couch watching giant mutant insects devour soldiers on the SciFi channel, while I was sucking beer out of a silk nightgown.
Come to think of it, I should have videotaped the scene. I bet something like that would be immensely popular in your more ‘exotic’ venues, and in Japan.
Only problem is my mushroom book(s) is(are) from the library which they will not be too happy to let circulate around the country.
What’s the name of the organization you and FPSS were discussing? I thought it was mycological society but that doesn’t take me to the page I recall…
I would say don’t worry about joining the national mushroom club, although they can help you locate branches and experts near you. Many mushrooms are local, anyway.
Just get a bunch of books and pore over them eagerly late into the night, and also seek out a helpful resident Bigfoot or else a grouchy old coot who loves mushrooms and you’ll be fine. You’ll be better than fine! You’ll be all fat and stuffed full of delicious food that you found yourself, after long enjoyable hours in the woods.
Your personal chi/aura/whatever will stream out from your happy fat self like a fire. Plus, and this is super-fun–you can brag to friends!
Thanks Oly, I wasn’t so concerned with joining anything yet, just looking for lotsa resources, I’m a research kinda guy and look into things heavily before doing them.
Thanks for your help, and I’ll be looking for cool a hat in case I end up like a mad hatter…:)
Anyway, for now this is a gift for my MIL, but at some point I’ll be looking to engage in this activity myself (probably next May when my school schedule lightens up and I’m not taking a full load…)
Now to find an old guy…
‘Now to find an old guy…’
It can take a while to find a quality old guy, it really can, but don’t neglect the search. In the normal course of events if I ever wanted an old guy I would just leap out of my little white convertible and shake my fluffy yellow head, and voila, look! A dozen old guys, miraculously appeared from nowhere! Amazing, really.
Hahahahahaah!
But! Does THIS sort of old guy know about mushrooms? Hmmm?
Alas, they do not.
You have to, like, STALK the rare species, the ‘Mushroom Knowing Old Guy’, with a cunning and guilefulness and serious patience you never had to use before. I had to really get patient. It sucked, and I wasted a lot of tempting looking mushrooms before I found my own precious old guy. (I say, ‘Better waste a tempting mushroom than to be wasting time applying for a new liver’. But that’s just me. I’m silly that way.)
Hey! I just thought! Do you have a food co-op handy?! That’s a good source. Begin there, blu.
Thanks for the help everyone.
And behold, yet even MORE mushroomy events to tempt you all into becoming fungophiles:
I went down to the Island Market just now because I discovered I had no chips, right after making a giant batch of really good cranberry salsa, and when driving back I saw a big patch of mushrooms right by the road and screeched to a halt and guess what! Yes, that’s right–a dozen russulas (I forget the scientific name) brand new and gnatless, just as fresh as daisies, and LOTS of Elfin Saddles, (helvella lacunosa), popped out all over the place. I have never seen so many all at once. They look like bizarro little black mutant thingies, but they taste fine. Plus their flesh stays firm in cooking, so it’s nice in dishes where that works better.
I filled up my cowboy hat, then the bag I keep in my car, and also most of the front seat. That’s how many! Yeah!
I’m gonna eat a bunch tonight, and at dinner I am going to clasp my hands and piously pray that all of you see the light and become enchanted by all things mushroomy. And also that all the developers and builders get transported straight to He*ll where they become b*utt-bu*ddies with Sa*tan. I’ve been praying for that last item for quite awhile now, and the good news is, there does seem to be a marked reduction in the number of builders and developers around here, nowadays.
Thus we see that Sweet Baby Jeebus heeds the earnest prayers of the righteous.
Amen.
As far as practical field guides, my favorite is “Mushrooms Demystified”. Lots of pretty pictures and warnings for the poisonous/tasty lookalikes.
T’aint pretty, blu, but Audubon/Knopf published a great field guide in 1981. ISBN= 0-394-51992-2.
They may have a coffee table version as well. I’d try Powells. Good luck.
Serial bottom callers are at it again. The bottom somehow is always one year off, yet forever receding into the future — just like the oasis mirage beckoning the thirsty wayfarer at the edge of the desert sky line.
Isn’t it interesting how the writer manages to narrow his focus to rising sales, while somehow avoiding the pesky subject of plummeting prices (aka “bargains”)? Try not to catch yerself a falling knife.
Gauging the gloom: Housing experts look to the future
By Roger Showley
STAFF WRITER
November 30, 2008
As 2008 nears its end, San Diego’s once-high-flying builder community is looking to the past to foretell the future – and hoping 2009 will mark a turnaround.
At the Urban Land Institute/San Diego chapter’s recent real estate trends conference, veterans of past recessions acknowledged to the youngish audience that things are bad.
…
Sullivan’s associate, Peter Dennehy, picked apart the Southern California and San Diego markets, noting that despite bad times, they can count on future growth to drive future demand.
“Other parts of the U.S. and Europe have no population growth,” he said.
That makes the current low level of building activity all the more startling in historic terms, with permit activity the lowest since 1948, when the regional population was a fraction of today’s. The Construction Research Board said permits through October totaled 4,777, down from 7,447 in 2007 and 10,777 in 2006 for the same 10-month period.
The National Association of Home Builders also took its members’ pulse and found that pessimism is rampant. Its November Housing Market Index stood at a record low of 9, when 50 or above represents an increasingly optimistic outlook. Western builders rated the short-term prospects at only a record low of 6.
…
Calling foreclosures the “curse” of the housing market, Dennehy saw signs of stability in that foreclosures are not accelerating and default notices seem to be dropping, at least temporarily, due to a new law requiring longer notice requirements.
On the job front, Dennehy said San Diego isn’t as bad as the 6.5 percent unemployment figure for October suggests. There were 15,000 new jobs added and 10,000 lost in the first nine months of the year, he said.
…
Meanwhile, sales are rising – “Buyers respond to bargains,” Dennehy said.
DataQuick’s October sales for San Diego County totaled 3,598, up 54.6 percent from October 2007 and an increase from September in contrast to the usual downward seasonal trend.
Sullivan picked up the thought: “We are at the bottom. The question is how long (we will stay there).”
The bottom somehow is always one year off, yet forever receding into the future —
Can Americans not comprehend multi-year trends? I gave up telling coworkers the bottom was more than two years away. Sigh…
Now they ask when housing will recover. They SCREAM when I note “oh, 2013 to 2017, its hard to really know when this mess will hit bottom.”
With all due respect to ‘Sullivan’, we’re not at the bottom. There is a good 20%+ national downside with certain states about to take it in the shorts. How can CA, FL, AZ, and NV really implode without taking down the rest of the nation? FL helps drive the knife into the northeast.
I love how 3 years ago we were a bi-costal nation and now somehow the West Coast falling apart won’t effect the east… Can I have a “Its different HERE?” 
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Hey Neil,
Didn’t you hear that the east and west coasts have decoupled?
Funny how the RE industry used to say the bottom is near (within a year) and for the last year or so they would say the bottom will be “next year.”
But I’m firm in thinking the bottom will be in the latter half of 2012 at the earliest.
Keynesians (Maynards) are arguing that our problem is LOL under-consumption. The fact is consumers have been on an unsustainable Wall Street engineered credit consumption binge for several years, consuming more than they earn via credit cards, mews, and so on, sucking away at future demand, revenue, and earnings via zero percent interest rate, pay-later incentives, and other gimmicks. It’s over. It was unsustainable. It bubbled and popped.
Now, we’re heading back to normal. Normal might seem harsh at first but normal demand is solid. It’s sustainable. Normal is reliable. You can lever normal, expand, and survive. You can build on normal. You can depend on normal. Normal is good. Bubble and pop — not so much.
(Maynards)
me likey~
(Maynards G. Debt)
a refresher course for the youngins’
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maynard_G._Krebs
Overconsumption early on isn’t paired with normal consumption, but rather a period of below-normal consumption to compensate.
You can get one now, but you gotta give up two later.
In CNY the realtor is advertising “Steal this House”.
Just look at the taxes on page 2, ($29,000). I bet some one can get this hose in the 4’s or lower. Talk about renting this home from the school district. Taxes will keep NYS a basket case for many years to come.
http://www.cnyhomes.com/Listing/Search/info.cgi?mlnum=201902
Btw this house originally listed above $800K.
That’s a lotta tax. They used to say ” that’s a lotta house ” but I think that more & more potential buyers will say ” that’s a lotta tax ” & not bite. Let’s see - at $ 499,999, the house would require $ 100,000 down at 20 percent downpayment, leaving a monthly mortgage P & I note of 2661.21 at 7 percent fixed on a jumbo mortgage ( thank you Karl’s Mortgage Calculator website ), plus $ 2416 in monthly prop taxes, plus at least $ 750 per month to insure that monster, totalling $ 5827 to “buy” that beauty. It’s most likely a 3-furnace house, so it would be an additional $ 450 a month on a budget plan just to heat it, not to mention the cost of electricity, furnishing it, redecorating it, landscaping maintenance and the two Beamer leases at $ 549 a month each. It would cost about $ 10,000 a month just in carrying costs to keep up with the neighbors, and that’s probably light. Nope.
$10K a month is possible in, say, the DC area if you and the spouse are DINK lawyers and the school loans are paid off. But the Syracuse area just doesn’t have that job base.
$10K a month puts you under a lot of strain even if you are DINK’s.
At that salary scale, a layoff looms very large every year because your value-add better be really high compared to the big bucks you are pulling down. You are better off banking one salary completely, and living off the other.
At that salary scale, a layoff looms very large every year because your value-add better be really high compared to the big bucks you are pulling down. You are better off banking one salary completely, and living off the other.
———————
Couldn’t have said it better, myself!
Why anyone would spend < $500k on a house in CNY not on a Finger Lake is beyond me. Which reminds me, hopefully by this time next year I will be bloggin’ from the Finger Lakes Region.
I have one simple goal for 2009: return to upstate.
Let me welcome you back to CNY. The summers are beautiful, it is snowing heavily today almost a white out. You are right muggy lake front houses are reasonable and abundant but the taxes on lake front in the town of Cazenovia where we are also looking is like the kiss of death. The mill rate in CNY is now 4 percent.
Where in upstate are you from? I’m originally from Camillus (just west of Syracuse.) A lot of people diss the region, but I love it and dream of moving back. The economy there is so difficult, though.
I am originally from the Rochester ‘burbs and my wife is a true 315′er from the sticks. The only reason why we’ll be able to move back is because she’ll have one telecommuting (FL-based) job and I’ll have two (FL + NYC-based). Oh, and because we didn’t buy a house in Florida.
I don’t know a single person from the region that wouldn’t move back. I could go on forever about this subject… whenever I get together with my high school buds over the holidays we talk about how to bring Rochester back. The problem is we’ve been having the same conversation for 15 years now. The other thing is, I don’t want Rochester to boom, I want it to be the average, modest city I remember. It would be awful if it ends of looking like a “booming” city.
MV, where are you now?
Eking out a living on Martha’s Vineyard (MA). It’s also beautiful, on the ocean, and at least there are jobs here. For now. We haven’t yet been hard hit by the downturn, but I’m sure it’s coming. Starting to hear rumblings.
Oh, and SUGuy: I MISS the snow!
Please come over and take all the snow you want. I had an idea for the city of Syracuse to cover the lake Ontario with a tarp. The city will save millions by not having to plow the lake effect snow. Covering a lake 190 miles long and 50 miles wide might be a bit challenging.
Cover Lake Ontario with a TARP? You’re right, too challenging. $700bn is only 2,790 square miles in dollar bills… you’ll have to ask Paulson for another trillion or so. Who knows, if it prevents some foreclosures in Syracuse they might go for it.
I posted a longer reply that hasn’t appeared yet, but my wife grew up down the road form you. Your town + her town = the name of the greasy spoon / ice cream joint. And no, we’re not old money!
SkanEllus. My wife’s favorite place. Her mother grew up in Skaneateles and we visit the relatives still there 2-3 times per year. I can understand wanting to live in that region but high-paying employment is a problem.
“Talk about renting this home from the school district.”
Well said.
The Bailout Bunch
Here`s the story of Ben Bernanke
who took over for Greenspan on his own
there were bad loans and banks were failing
but he was all alone
Here`s the story of a man named Paulson
Who knew the Wall Street problems all too well
they were both screwed and they knew it
so they said what the hell
So then Paulson and Bernanke went to congress
and they knew that it was much more than a hunch
that the three would somehow form a family
that`s the way they all became the bailout bunch
The bailout bunch , the bailout bunch
That`s the way they became the bailout bunch
With Angelo Mozzillo as
Alice
Beauty!
OK, here’s one for you - to the tune of “Breakfast in America” by Supertramp:
Sickness in America
Take a look at my downtrend
it’s the only one I got
Not much of a stipend
Never seem to get a lot
Take the dollars to the chopper
Fly across America…
Eat the squirrels in California
I’m hoping its going to come true
But there’s not a lot I can do
Could we shoot flippers for breakfast
Mummy dear, mummy dear
They got to have em in Texas
Cos everyone’s a millionaire
I’m a winner, I’m a sinner
Will you read my epitaph?
I’m a loser, cash pursuer
I’m playing my hoax upon you
While there’s nothing better to do
Don’t you look at my downtrend
it’s the only one I got
Not much of a stipend
Never seem to get a lot
Take the dollars to the chopper
Calling Air America
Shoot the shills in California
I’m hoping its going to come true
But there’s not a lot I can do.
Bravo!!!
Spent a few days in Sarasota/Bradenton, FL. Was sad to see that a family restaurant, of about the same name, on 64 (east end of Manatee) has closed. It was there for years and years. Mel’s Diner closed, too. And we see an ever-increasing amount of commercial space for lease.
What surprised me most is the appearance of a couple of new banks. A banker here once told me that new banks start up just so they can make themselves into buyout targets for bigger banks. And a bank at which I had $100K+ in just two years ago has sunk to one star in Bankrate’s Safe & Sound list.
Property prices all over Central Florida continue to sink, from what I see. Am even seeing foreclosures in 55+ neighborhoods. Baffles me why someone who lives in a retirement community would take out a mortgage rather than rent something they can afford.
University comment: On yesterday’s board, there were some comments about colleges getting hit. The president of Stanford recently sent out a super scary email about cutbacks, freezing hires, research monies, etc. Turns out that the masters of the endowment universe have had their heads up their a$$es too (shocker). The endowment is way down and now all managers have had to supply a 3-5-7 schedule, as in who will get axed with 3% cuts, 5% cuts, etc. Also I hear that Dartmouth had to do the same, but with 10% cuts. With California being broke a$$, I wonder what’s to become of the state system. Perhaps we’ll get back to a time when a college degree wasn’t necessary to obtain a decent paying job and everyone didn’t feel obligated to go if it wasn’t right for him/her?
Relative comment: OK, so we’ve finally gotten to the point where people get that there is an economic problem here. But why does everyone think that the economic downturn is happening to everyone else but them? My brother’s statements like, “Well, you were right about that but it won’t happen to me” abound. Dude, you have a house that is underwater and your wife refuses to work and she turned on Christmas music at 8 AM the day after Thanksgiving. Good luck with that!
And now I have “Christmastime is Here” by The Chipmunks and “Little St. Nick” by the Beach Boys on infinite repeat in my head. Thanks!
‘…and she turned on Christmas music at 8 AM the day after Thanksgiving. Good luck with that!’
Hey! I did that, too. In fact, I have a festive Santa Claus hat on my head this very minute, and it looks great with the pink grinning-monkey-head jammies.
There is NOTHING WRONG with Christmas music, yer big Grinch. So there!
Only unless it’s Alvin and the Chipmunks singing it. I will agree that that is repugnant.
“There is NOTHING WRONG with Christmas music, yer big Grinch.”
What’s wrong with The Grinch, you bully? The Grinch is the best of all the Christmas stories. I especially loved the sequel when the Grinch reverted back to his old ways and hacked all of The Whos to pieces with a sharpened piece of peanut brittle.
P.S. Jim Carrey still deserves a beating for that ghastly movie he made.
“The Twelve Days of Excess”
On the first day of excess
my creditcard loaned to me
greenbacks from the money-tree
two trampled patrons
On the second day of Christmas, Paulson gave to me
bank shares in droves
and greenbacks from the money tree.
Five golden puts!
The Grinch Who Stole Christmas. A great classic carton. Boris Karloff doing the voice of the Grinch.
Bah! Humbug!
Nah, I just think that it has to be December to roll with Xmas. And I still am selling the Chipmunks and buying Burl Ives…
One of those went out last week from the MIT ptb too.
yet another victim of debt misallocation.
Hmmm - the last I heard, Univ of Mich’s endowment had surpassed two billion ( billion ) dollars and there’s complaining (bitchin really ) about how it’s not being spent fast enough. I’m really surprised to read that about Stanford’s and Dartmouth’s endowments. They’re cutting jobs at the Univ. of Mich. hospital, though.
BILLIONS of dollars in their endowment (slush fund) and they are whining about cutting back? Are these regurgitated federal workers, who think a “cut” is any reduction from what is wished for?
How about you academic assholes-in-charge start spending some of that endowment money, starting with reduction of tuition?
Trickle up theory:
A better way to spend $800 billion
Regarding “$800 billion in new lending aimed at crisis” (A1, Nov. 26): It’s reported the government is spending another $800 billion to “revive the nation’s crippled banking system” and that total spending on the bailout could reach $7.4 trillion, including loan guarantees. Based on the U.S. population of more than 305 million, this breaks down to about $24,200 for every citizen of our nation. Now I don’t know about others but my wife and I could use $48,400 and I bet families of five out could use $121,000. That money would be spent on home mortgages and consumer debt, and there would still be plenty left to spend, spend, spend. Banks would be saved and jobs would be created. Instead, our government gave it to financial institutions’ wealthy leaders. The same guys that through greed and stupidity got us into this mess. Our government is saying that it hopes this works, but if it doesn’t it’s willing to give more.
Our government has been operating on the false premise that money trickles down. That is a myth. Money flows upward. Give the money to us common people, and we will save the economy.
DON LANDIS
Carlsbad
The other day, I was pondering the amounts of money being thrown about and did the same basic type of calculations. Just like in 2002/03 when I first caught a whiff of the HB, I’m smelling a rat. These numbers just don’t make sense to me. Like the HB, I’ll probably gain a better understanding over time of the thievery taking place. I guess I don’t have a well-developed criminal mind.
This of course is all based on the false premise that the money actually exists to be given. It doesn’t.
Giving it directly to the populace would raise the question “Hey, where exactly did this money come from, anyhow?” The PTB don’t want that, because their secret would then be revealed, that it doesn’t actually come from anywhere - it is created out of thin air. By allowing the banks to create it - they can assume the plausible deniability of “don’t ask - you wouldn’t understand - it’s too complex for your simple mind”.
I agree with the letter writer. As long as “they” are going to “create” money out of thin air, why not do it in “my” bank account?
Oh I definitely agree it would be the best solution. I was just stating why it’ll never happen.
The writer definitely has a point.
IMHO, we (the citizens) would put that money to much better use than the Wall Street titans would.
Let’s watch as they all come up with some more “innovative products” with which they can fleece the few of us who are left in middle-class America.
Consumers pay high price for credit cards
By Adam J. Levitin
November 30, 2008
As every sector of the American economy lines up to sit on Congress’ lap to ask for an early Christmas present, things aren’t looking so good for American consumers. The visions dancing in their heads are not of sugar plums, but of unemployment, debt and foreclosures. They’re wondering how they are going to pay for Christmas presents.
Now we learn that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson wants to save Christmas, by using taxpayer funds to bolster the credit card market. But before we shower taxpayer dollars indiscriminately at every down-at-heel, ragamuffin credit card lender, we should take a hard look at how they got themselves into so much trouble. Just throwing money at the credit card industry without requiring a systemic change in how it does business is merely asking for a repeat of the crisis.
The card industry’s business model is the heart of the problem, and needs to change.
…
Most consumers spend responsibly and live within their means, but the banks have devised a system to encourage reckless overspending – and enrich themselves in the process. But it turns out the maze of tricks and traps even fooled the banks. As delinquencies rise, they are looking for a handout. Whether or not they get it, we need to learn something from this crisis and fix the credit card business model, or we’ll all be in line for some special lumps of coal in a Christmas future.
“They’re wondering how they are going to pay for Christmas presents”.
Not my crowd, we don’t ‘do’ that part of Christmas, haven’t in over 15 years.
Because of the holiday I was actually answering my phone this weekend. Not wanting to miss a holiday call from distant friends I instead got caught by my card issuing bank.
The lady kept asking what they could do to make it easier for me to use my card. Change billing dates? Add another user? Raise the limit?etc.
I must be falling short of their expectations.
“The lady kept asking what they could do to make it easier for me to use my card. Change billing dates? Add another user? Raise the limit?etc.
I must be falling short of their expectations.”
Get with the program, deadbeat. Go finance some TVs, couches, and pizza.
UNION-TRIBUNE EDITORIAL
Local government nightmare
Agencies must prepare now for 2009 plunge in property tax revenue
November 30, 2008
The hits just keep on coming. A new report by Beacon Economics on the California economy says the downturn of recent months is only going to accelerate and that state revenue is unlikely to return to the level seen in 2007-08 until 2012. The Beacon report makes a persuasive case that even the downbeat forecasts of the state Department of Finance aren’t gloomy enough – especially on corporate taxes, one of the three key sources of revenue for the state, along with income taxes and sales taxes. But the Beacon analysis also illustrates how the budget stress now felt in the state Capitol is about to become the norm for every last local government in California.
“Agencies must prepare now for 2009 plunge in property tax revenue”
Same here in central S.C. Our idiot mayor is heading to D.C. to beg for 50 million bucks, after our Governor said NO thanks to a bailout.
Screw nominal terms.
State revenues aren’t going to be returning to 2007-2008 in real terms EVER (unless they massively increase the tax rate.)
Plus, many local gov’ts weren’t basing their spending on actual receipts…they based their spending on projected receipts.
A crucial little detail to be sure.
That’s what I always say when people ask me “When will the housing market recover?”. In nominal terms, probably a decade or so. In real terms.. NEVER.
The look of horror on their faces is truly worth throwing around the superlatives. In fact “NEVER” isn’t the right answer either, it’s probably more like 100-150 years, when all of us are long dead, and any memory of this debacle is removed from the history books (or totally marginalized).
Interesting point. I estimate three generations based on recent history. That would be 75 years until the next great housing bubble. Just long enough so that no one who lived through this one is still alive.
In terms of the history books, the housing bubble will be marginalized by the financial collapse, correctly in my opinion. What we know as the housing bubble was just one manifestation of an enormous credit bubble, brought to you by the fine financial engineers of Wall Street and Big Government.
I’m afraid that many will take the wrong lesson from this, and it appears that this is already happening as the government pumps money back into the same corrupt finance sector that created the bubble in the first place.
Was there ever another tulip bubble? Think there will be another beanie baby bubble?
There’s a chance there will never be another housing bubble!
Most likely, though, you’re right. As long as Governments try to meddle with the housing market, there will probably be another one in another generation or two.
Here in CA, it will take 2/3 vote to raise property taxes.
Dubai vows to keep building despite global crisis…Debts have cast a shadow on the Dubai dream.
But in recent weeks the cracks in Dubai’s economy have become undeniable. Property prices have slumped, demand has dried up and, for the first time, the emirate is being forced to consider calling a halt to its expansion. Some analysts are claiming that Dubai could implode, weighed down under a pile of debt and, given that it has relatively small oil reserves, no obvious way of paying for it. One said: “This has been the most spectacular spending mission on Earth. But it’s a mirage. If complex debt structures have brought the financial world to its knees, Dubai is the world’s biggest toxic timebomb.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3536012/Dubai-vows-to-keep-building-despite-global-crisis.html
Dubai = Rockefeller Center + Pebble Beach (on super-steroids.)
What if a certain superpower, which shall go unnamed, is forced to pare back on its hightened prescence in the Gulf?
In a sense we’re very much subsidizing their real estate values.
Does this mean Haliburton might be hurtin’?
I love poetic justice.
to: sfjack
I bet you one virtual Quatloo on the outcome of today’s gridirony.
Yours long suffering, wide-right-adversely…
The Bills are piling up (wide left) and so far the highlight of this tv outing has been a commercial.
It starts out, xmas circa 1965 and is enshrouded in soft light and simplicity. A 10 year old girl receives a Pony-which is hanging out on the carpet with her, and her family flashes broad smiles, and then a contemporary of hers shows up with a dinky ceramic horse about 10 inches tall, and throws it down on the ground in disgust.
…then it flashes to the woman, about 55 now.
Who deserves a Lexus, er-pony.
Wait, here’s a contender:
It gets better~
6 supermodels get into Rico Suave’s Escalade, and off he rides into the night, 7 smiles flashing.
Be like Rico for just $57k, a $12k savings off of MSRP $69k
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/30/weekinreview/30arango.html
GEORGE F. WILL
THE WASHINGTON POST
Some caution over a new New Deal
November 30, 2008
Early in what became the Great Depression, John Maynard Keynes was asked if anything similar had ever happened. “Yes,” he replied, “it was called the Dark Ages, and it lasted 400 years.” It did take 25 years, until November 1954, for the Dow to return to the peak it reached in September 1929. So caution is sensible concerning calls for a new New Deal.
The assumption is that the New Deal vanquished the Depression.
…
FDR’s hyperkinetic New Deal created uncertainties that paralyzed private-sector decision-making. Which sounds familiar.
Bear Stearns? Broker a merger. Lehman Brothers? Death sentence. The $700 billion is for cleaning up toxic assets? Maybe not. Writes Russell Roberts of George Mason University:
“By acting without rhyme or reason, politicians have destroyed the rules of the game. There is no reason to invest, no reason to take risk, no reason to be prudent, no reason to look for buyers if your firm is failing. Everything is up in the air and as a result, the only prudent policy is to wait and see what the government will do next. The frenetic efforts of FDR had the same impact: Net investment was negative through much of the 1930s.”
Barack Obama says the next stimulus should deliver a “jolt.” His adviser Austan Goolsbee says it must be big enough to “startle the thing into submission.” Their theory is that the crisis is largely psychological, requiring shock treatment. But shocks from government have been plentiful.
Unfortunately, one thing government can do quickly and efficiently – distribute checks – could fail to stimulate because Americans might do with the money what they have been rightly criticized for not doing nearly enough: save it. Because individual consumption is 70 percent of economic activity, St. Augustine’s prayer (“Give me chastity and continence, but not yet”) is echoed today: Make Americans thrifty, but not now.
Obama’s “rescue plan for the middle class” includes a tax credit for businesses “for each new employee they hire” in America over the next two years. The assumption is that businesses will create jobs that would not have been created without the subsidy. If so, the subsidy will suffuse the economy with inefficiencies – labor costs not justified by value added.
Here we go again? A new New Deal would vindicate pessimists who say that history is not one damn thing after another, it is the same damn thing over and over.
To think that small businesses will hire more employees just to get in on a tax credit requires that one uses virtually the same logic that one should buy an overpriced house just to get in on the mortgage interest deduction.
Businesses will begin hiring only when it makes business sense to do so…at least the ones that expect to survive.
A lot of people were encouraged to overpay for housing to capture the mortgage interest tax deduction. A couple of years ago, my CPA asked me why I hadn’t purchased a house for exactly that reason.
Businesses that want to survive will be outsourcing everything possible and using part-time employees for the things that cannot be outsourced. In this environment, it’s no longer possible to make the kind of stable and growing profits that can support growing full time employment.
This is going to cause a health insurance crisis as benefits disappear. Since the insurance companies will not sell reasonably priced insurance to individuals, a lot of unemployed people will be losing their insurance as the COBRA plans time out and insurance becomes completely unaffordable. We’ll probably see national health insurance in a few years with this situation forcing the issue.
So many tax, unemployment and other insurance costs and risks with hiring employees. Plus the constant strain of keeping them in work. I went that route a decade ago in my business. I had great employees, but I’d never do it again, other than my wife. Nowadays, if my business starts heading in a direction that indicates the need for employees, I change direction, quickly.
Governments (federal, state, local) could be much more effective in this regard by reducing the barriers to small business growth that are already in place, rather than adding additional artificial stimulants to overcome the barriers. But of course that’s not the way we do things here in the ol’ USA, no matter which party is currently running the show.
Businesses will begin hiring only when it makes business sense to do so…at least the ones that expect to survive.
This is also a great arguement against the trickle down economics folks who say by slashing capital gains and dividend taxes we will stimulate the economy . Wrong, business will only invest and expand when there is a growing market. They’ve killed the middle class and tax cuts and cash to the banks ain’t going to fix the problem.
Went to high school with Goolsbee and other douches with names like Reginald J. Farnsworth III. Now, I’m clearly not a genius. But I do work for geniuses (and I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night) and Austan Goolsbee is no genius. Sorry, but we need some smart, non-silver-spoon people at the helm, egg-head syndrome be damned. He will do the wrong thing.
Just another Skull and Bones alum. Meet the new boss…
A few relatives and friends (20 total) planned a mini 4 -day vacation almost a year ago that is coming around the corner in a few days. Airfare and hotels were already booked in advance. I’m really looking forward to it. Anyways, we already got three cancellations. Their reasons:
1. One couple said - alot of stuff going on and we can’t get a babysitter. (it was planned for a year! Lot’s of time to get their act together. And her mom lives with them. Wha..)
2. Another couple said - Both can’t get off from work. (um..it was planned for a year and they would only be missing Thursday and Friday, Sat and Sunday doesn’t count)
3. Lastly another couple said - And I really believe them and they are the ones that constantly flake if we do things at the end of the month. They said that it’s tough right now. Husband’s work is cutting down hours and property tax is due soon. (Their property tax is around 10K. It was not baked in with their mortgage payment. They also got an Option ARM.
So the three that cancelled owns a home that was bought within the last 3 years and at the peak, they are only in their late twentys, a couple of kids, they work in blue collar areas, 2-3 cars not older than 3 years old (SUV, BMW, Mercedes, boat, etc.). A fourth couple is still going but they already foreclosed on their house 6 months ago and are renting. I talked to them just last weekend and they are doing well and they are much more happier. They lost everything but they don’t have a $4500 dollar mortgage payment to deal with.
I just remember all four couple living large, inviting us for lavish dinners, showing us their new toys, kids running rampmant wanting this and that. I just bit my lip. My wife and I are alot older and I remember when we were at their age and making similar income compared to theirs. It was tough.
I haven’t posted numbers for Santa Monica housing for a few months, because there is so little activity. But the DQ numbers are out for LA County in the Times, so here is another checkpoint that frankly surprises me. It’s not a surprise that sales are way down. But.
zip SFHs - median SFR - %YOY - condos - median - %YOY - SFR$/sqft
90401 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
90402 6 $2,185 -21.1% n/a n/a n/a $1,045
90403 n/a n/a n/a 8 $714 14.0% n/a
90404 5 $704 -7.0% 9 $535 -0.1% $873
90405 7 $845 -36.2% 8 $525 -32.3% $901
Take a look at 90402 - although the median price is down 21% YOY, those houses are still selling for over $1000 per sqft. And look at 90405, for heaven’s sake. $900 per sqft !!!
I don’t have the actual sales, but I read this to mean that the sales are basically small shacks that the buyers intend to scrape and rebuild. In 90405, if you divide the median price by the $/sqft, you get 938 sqft. In 90402, the same calculation gives 2090 sqft, which is a tiny house for that zip.
Now I realize that it’s risky to base any calculation on medians for such a small population, but it’s still interesting. A few speculators still seem to be operating around here somehow, seemingly betting on a massive runup in prices for rebuilds in the future. At least that’s how I read it.
What would be the OER on those $900/sq.ft. homes? Are these designer showcase homes or just your run of the mill homes? Ocean view homes or near the 405?
The $900/sqft median homes are on the south side of Santa Monica. In general, there is no ocean view, but you do get ocean air. The zip contains mostly plain 1940s stucco boxes, but many of the lots have been scraped and now hold newer construction. The eastern edge of 90405 is about 2 miles west of the 405, and it extends west to the beach.
I don’t know how to get the OER numbers for that area, but in general, the rental price for free standing houses in that area starts at about $3500/mo, $5000/mo would not be unusual, and a big place would be around $8000/month. For $8000, you get a pretty nice house, but not a designer showcase. Tricked-out showcases are probably in the five figures per month.
Thanks for the update, I spent my youth in the 90049/90265 and Marina Del Rey… now I enjoy living in Hawaii and not being able to afford it here either. Lol.
“the sales are basically small shacks that the buyers intend to scrape and rebuild. … A few speculators still seem to be operating around here somehow, seemingly betting on a massive runup in prices for rebuilds in the future. At least that’s how I read it.”
Back in 2005-07 i spend some work related-time hanging around SM . The area from 10 fwy south to ocean park blvd, and probably all way down to SM south city limits, and from Neilson east to lincoln blvd, had/has quite a few beaten down old bungalows, pre- WWII clapboards, beach cottages, mostly tiny 600-1000 sq ft shacks. A tiny few Speculators and rebuilders/restorers probably still doing teardowns and restorations as this area is close to the SM beach and all SM hot spots. Even more Surprising is that this small section has some ragged and even edgy sections, particularly an area just south of pico blvd.
The SM hi-end 19402-19403 ,which is more like brentwood and the rich hollywood parts of LA, has long kept overall SM homes prices in the stratosphere. When and if they crash, then rest of SM goes kaput.
SM always had great potential as a world famous ocean front tourist resort- LA’ s Riveria- but the city leaders like SM to remain a sort of low key backwater nimby zone.
What emoticons work on this blog?
Test :smile
:barf:
Ben, how much money do I have to donate for you to enable the barf gif? I need it.
Especially as we enter the “victim” phase.
Try the frownie face
equals victim. By the way, I finally feel like a victim. Yes. My husband put 22 percent cash down on our house when he bought it 7 years ago. It wasn’t overpriced at all back then. Since then, it went up in value (supposedly), another $21,000 on paper, and now has plummeted about $ 65000 in value, also all on paper. It lost $ 7000 in value last month, and will soon be underwater with a 22 percent initial down and another $10K in principal being paid off after that. That’s a total of $ 32,000 down the tubes, with never an interest-only or neg-am mortgage to be found on the place. Yes, now I will do the frownie face 
The only reason why we have hung onto it is because it is relatively close to my workplace and I don’t want to drive 39 miles each way from our (paid-for and nicer) rental house which will eventually turn into our retirement home. The main reason why I’m hanging on to that job rather than looking for a higher-paying one elsewhere is because I like it, and, if I stay for 6 years & 4 months more, I will get lifetime health insurance with only a 10 % cost share ( premium). Yup. 
Well, I’m sorry you’re a victim, silverback. Speaking for me, I only like that condition to overtake realtors and developers.
If only I knew your address I would send you some healthful grubs and roots and also a banana to cheer you up. You’re a gorilla, right?
Seriously, I hope things work out for you and yours.
Thanks, we really appreciate it, Olympiagal. Since my husband’s health forced him to drop out of pharmacy school, we’re paying back his student loans also. He’s been unable to find a job although he’s a chemist with 30 years of experience. But we have been prudent and are very frugal, so at present we are holding our own. Hope the seams of our little rowboat continue to hold together. At least we were preparing for the eventual downturn for the last four years. He was attempting to jump professions, but unfortunately getting the Pharm. D. proved to be too much for him in his 50’s. He suffers from a lot of guilt and depression now, even though he has nothing to feel guilty about. You are a very good sort and we’d enjyoy the grubs, or at least the banana, yes ?
“but unfortunately getting the Pharm. D. proved to be too much for him in his 50’s.”
yes America is getting old isn’t it ? I’m 48 and feeling it.
America is getting old and feeling it as well which is why I think this downturn is different than any in the last 50 years.
ECONOMIC PREVIEW
Worst job losses in almost three decades expected
Manufacturing, services activity also headed lower, forecasts say
By Ruth Mantell, MarketWatch
Last update: 7:01 a.m. EST
Nov. 30, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The gainfully employed have good reason to give thanks this holiday season.
More than one million jobs have been lost this year through October, according to the Labor Department. And the upcoming November employment report is expected to show a loss of another 350,000 jobs, according to analysts surveyed by MarketWatch. A decrease of 350,000 would be the largest drop since May 1980, when more than 400,000 jobs were shed.
This looms for Friday, and the S&P is up what? 20%? in just two weeks!?
If I didn’t know better…
High unemployment means there is a more plentiful, and therefore less costly, work force available. Less expensive labor makes business more profitable and competitive.
Mismanaged businesses will fail and shed their employees while the best positioned companies will flourish. All that’s left to do is to determine which is which.
No high unemployment means fewer customers which means companies good and bad will cut back. It’s called a vicious circle.
This is the correct answer in an economy that is 74% retail driven… like ours.
Oops.
Gee, guys, don’t you know that in Joey’s world (that would be the trickle-down world), you don’t need customers!!!
See, it’s all about producing things…the more you produce, the richer you become. No need for those pesky employees and customers!
Regarding Aladins vindication seeking;
Good for you Lad. My wife and I were on the receiving end of some of the most callous comments during the bubble years from FAMILY. And there is nothing more satisfying that watching the very crutch they were leaning on and forecasting their entire future come apart at the seams. Ironically enough, if it weren’t for the generosity of my father and uncles peeling off acres and giving to brothers and sisters, they wouldn’t own anything. I have no interest in planting roots back in VT or upstate NY. I prefer not to merely tread water economically like they do. Commiserating with father and uncles is quite different. All in their 70’s and 80’s, they know exactly what’s on the menu but it amazes me that my siblings don’t capitalize on all that experience.
Unfortunately I have been on the receiving end of bitter jealous resentment bordering on seething hate from both family and friends who know I sold my house at the peak and have since put the cash to work for a profit… more than enough to pay my rent, I have no debt etc. I have had to keep my mouth shut for over a year now.
Worse, when they asked me what stocks to buy two years ago I told them all to cash out of everything and invest in bonds or gold, they rolled their eyes and bought hand over fist… Visa at 78, gold at 1000, emerging market funds, etc.
I actually heard one otherwise-prudent older man say “I’m up twenty percent this week!” … oh but whoops my net worth has been cut in HALF.
This is just so freaky.
Nobody gets it, nobody wants to know. Lalalalala.
‘Unfortunately I have been on the receiving end of bitter jealous resentment bordering on seething hate from both family and friends…’
I assume that you enjoy this, correct? And wallow in the warming flow of vitriol.
Because 1.) It’s funny. 2.) You gotta stay warm and cozy. It’s cold out there, my good person. You don’t want to catch a chill that would prevent you from enjoying the fruits of your wisdom.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
I keep hearing people tell me “it must be nice”.
No, it’s not nice knowing we are more screwed than we were 12 months ago, t’s not nice renting and it’s not nice Not saving.
All this has taught me something useful about how deliberately blind people can be when things are going well. I will be observing with great interest whether the onset of catastrophe will cause similar blindness.
From “The Market Ticker”
——————————————————————————
“Insanity defined: Doing the same thing over and over but expecting different results.
Here we go again. Bernanke and pals have over the last two days rolled out some $1.3 trillion in new so-called “facilities”, including buying agencies and consumer debt.
While there are many screaming about the agency purchases, this is permitted under The Federal Reserve Act (actually an amendment passed in the 1960s, although it has never before been used.)
But consumer credit obligations are a different matter. They are both unsecured and not federal instrumentalities at their source, and there is absolutely no authority for Bernanke to do this.
Loan against them, yes. Buy them? No.
Obviously, the smashing of the TNX along with agency spreads came of this; gee, is this a surprise? But how does this help the banks? Remember, banks borrow short and lend long. They ain’t doing any lending with that sort of spread.
Of course we already knew that, right? So what is this?
Its a raw attempt to support house prices - an attempt that will (just as have the others) fail.
I come back to first principles - the root of the problem is that banks and others made loans to people who could not pay. That is, on balance there is too much debt in the system overall, and the quality of it is too poor.
It might be nice to think you can “unring” this bell, but you can’t. Nor can you solve anything by shifting who has or is guaranteeing the debt. All that does is change who eats the default - it does not change the fact of the default, nor the credit quality.
The unfortunate second-order effect of all this bad credit is that it pumped consumption - that is, GDP - by about 15-20% from where it would have been without it. That is, the majority of the GDP increase over the years from 2003-2007 was due to the granting of bad credit, not organic growth in wages and productivity.
Now we can deny this for as long as we’d like, but until we face this truth we will not solve the problems that ail this economy. Sustainable growth will not return, jobs will not “come home” and productivity will not mount a sustainable increase.
Attempting to drive down the cost of money (credit) to “restart” lending is a fool’s errand. That simply extends more bad credit into the economy which of course puts on the table even more defaults over time.
Down this rathole lies Japan’s experience of the 1990s, and ours to come - or worse.
You can only drive asset prices in a sustainable fashion by driving up real wages through productivity and new technologies.”
————————————————-
‘It might be nice to think you can “unring” this bell, but you can’t. Nor can you solve anything by shifting who has or is guaranteeing the debt. All that does is change who eats the default - it does not change the fact of the default, nor the credit quality.’
U.S. taxpayer = debt default eater
Once the PTB transfer all the losses in the system (in the form of credit defaults and malinvestment) from private hands to the taxpayer, will they come quickly back to the free market ideology and let the investors, that still have some capital left, to have their way with both housing and stock markets?
If so, what will be the indicators to watch out for, which will hint that such a moment is close?
I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies . . . If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] . . . will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered . . . The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.” — Thomas Jefferson
The banks are already taking the loans from the FED and using it to buy smaller banks. They are already lending to select Hedge Funds that are buying up assetts. They are so large and so secure in the charity of the FED that they care little about the absolute top and bottom.
CF,
They have stated they would do so, quite explicitly.
How many times have we had to hear them talk about the “temporary” nature of the govt loans/guarantees/buying programs? Then, once the “crisis” is over (that means the losses are eaten by the taxpayers), the companies and investments will revert to private ownership.
They’ve said this outright, and NOBODY is saying anything about it. The idiots at CNBC (except for Santelli) just smile and nod…praising the “genius” of those who lord over the financial system.
An article from the Christian Science Monitor.
‘Made in America’ must make a comeback:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20081128/cm_csm/ysedan
“The most striking peculiarity presented by a psychological crowd is the following: Whoever be the individuals that compose it, however like or unlike be their mode of life, their occupations, their character, or their intelligence, the fact that they have been transformed into a crowd puts them in possession of a sort of collective mind which makes them feel, think, and act in a manner quite different from that in which each individual of them would feel, think, and act were he in a state of isolation.”
Gustave Le Bon, from “The Crowd”
The Donald’s a deadbeat again.
Trump Entertainment to miss interest payment
By Robert Daniel & William Spain, MarketWatch
Last update: 2:47 p.m. EST Nov. 30, 2008
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Facing tough competition and sliding revenue amid the economic meltdown, Trump Entertainment Resorts will have to skip a $53.1 million interest payment scheduled for Monday on its 8.5% senior secured notes due 2015 in order to maintain sufficient liquidity.
Ship cargo volume slumping at West Coast ports
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/11/30/BUC814CTLU.DTL
SFBGal - I am very interested in this subject. There are variables out the wazoo that affect it, from the cost constructs noted in the article, to the politics of Suez Canal transit, to the possibly-most HBB-relevant issue of Letters of Credit and the resulting effect on Baltic Dry in general. I look forward to further links on this, if you are inclined to post them.
I’m paying under $2/gal for gasoline and luvin’ it!
OPEC Failure Foretells Steeper Decline 10 Years After $10 Oil
By Anthony DiPaola
Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) — A decade after OPEC failed to prevent oil from collapsing to $10 a barrel, the world’s biggest producers are delaying the action needed to arrest the steepest slide in energy prices.
Ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries postponed debate on a second cut in output in as many months during meetings in Cairo Nov. 29. They will wait until later this month, after a slump in global economies and the popping of the commodities bubble sent oil down almost $100 from its record price in July to as low as $48.25 a barrel in New York on Nov. 21.
“They are riding the economic wave just like the rest of us,” Adam Sieminski, Deutsche Bank AG’s chief energy economist, said in a telephone interview in Washington. “In the past when there has been a big economic downturn, OPEC has had to go through a series of cuts to stabilize the oil market.”
And despite all this, some fools (”Drummies?”) will continue to believe that the run-up to $150/bbl was not due to speculation but rather due to true demand.
Speculation played a roll, but take a look demand is falling rapidly and definitely accounted for some of the rise. 80-100bucks a barrel is my guess.
Keep dreamin’, fool!
I’ll bet on $20 a barrel before I bet on $100 a barrel.
My point was that some of the runup was due to increased credit driven demand. More airplane rides, more shipping, more construction, more SUV’s, more miles driven. I was long oil to 100-120 and shorted at 140 down to 100.
I’m betting on 30 before 100 as well, because demand is collapsing. I hold no position in oil now.
I’m still surprised that business reporters still refuse to acknowledge the truth about the housing situation. This week’s Business Week has an article that states:
Not all borrowers should be saved. After all, some foreclosures are important to rid the market of people who should never have gotten a loan in the first place. Also, real estate speculators, individuals who bought a second or third home, and dubious borrowers aren’t likely to get relief.
They’re getting close, but still don’t fully understand this basic fact: ALL PEOPLE who bought houses with adjustable mortgages were real estate speculators! They were either betting that rates would go down, or house values would go up.
Good point. Reminds me of when, ten or twenty years ago, my college alumni association contacted me and told me that the “life membership” I had purchased upon graduation turned out to be a bad deal for the university - and would I please consider reverting to annual membership renewal? I can’t remember the exact phrasing of my reply, but it would have pleased most HBBers. It saddened me that an institution I trusted and thought I “knew” would turn on me when it lost its bet against me, a bet fairly made and on their terms.
Did you say, “F*ck you, fools! Eat sh*t and die!”?
If not, shame on you.
Here’s an article from the Christian Science Monitor
‘Made in America’ must make a comeback
There is value in working with your hands
http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/1128/p09s02-coop.htm
There are only two ways for made in America to return
1. Cause the value of the dollar to collapse
2. End free trade.
My guess is they will be going with #1 soon. Of course China and all the others will do the same as unemployment rises, which will eventually end up with #2.
Excellent article, SF. Agree 100%.
We need to move away from financial witchcraft and get back to producing things that have true value…things that last for a long time, aren’t toxic, and are useful and improve our way of life.
We’ve squandered a lot of time and money since embracing the myth of the “finance economy”. The sooner we get back to real productivity, the better.
I wonder if this bear market rally is over ? Will we test the lows again before Christmas ? How was Black Friday for retailers ?
This rally isn’t over before the Messiah unveils his plans.
Buy on the rumors, sell on the news.
Google News “black friday statistics” (not the web search, but the news search)
Seems spending and traffic are up, but not by much.