December 2, 2008

Bits Bucket For December 2, 2008

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367 Comments »

Comment by palmetto
2008-12-02 05:32:25

Good morning, campers! What’s on tap for today? Will the stock market stink out the joint again?

Comment by llcarlos
2008-12-02 05:42:09

Good morning. Europe turned around at mid-day and is now up. I will guess that US markets will be up today.

Comment by palmetto
2008-12-02 05:47:31

Yep, that’s what “they” say in the financial news. It goes up, it comes down. Anyway, the stock market is a joke anymore. I was reading some of the posts by our resident HBB traders yesterday. No one even bothers to put money in anything anymore because it is a “good investment” and the company will do well, etc. It’s all about timing, that’s it. This is not a dig at the traders. Heck, if I could do it, I would. I’m just saying that it’s reflective of what the market really is, a game of craps or poker or whatever.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-12-02 06:09:03

agreed.. I think the scared money left the building long ago and the solid money is waiting for the eventual recovery.
So, whats left is daytraders passing gains and losses back and forth between themselves.

We are witnessing one of the greatest opportunities ever to buy-to-hold a wide variety of top quality at a bargain price. Or, one can gamble..

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Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2008-12-02 11:01:54

joeyinCalif, if you think we are now witnessing one of the greatest opportunities ever to buy, just wait until you see the bargains available _next_ year!! :-)

Keep reminding yourself, the markets went down 90% in the GD. We are having a similar-sized, similar-rooted once-in-three-generations event.

Since we’re currently down only ~40%, you can STILL lose something like 80% by buying now, _IF_ the outcome is anything like GD-I.

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-12-02 12:11:47

i’m not talking indexes.. i’m thinking stuff like Citi or Ford or dozens of similar companies @ small dollars a share.

I buy a thousand shares of C last week and my loss is limited to $2,000 no matter what the rest of the market does… but maybe I should wait for C to drop to $1 in ‘09? I dunno..

 
 
Comment by mikey
2008-12-02 06:16:35

I just read that the median the US household income is $46,326 for a single income family.

With all the increases in the numerous financial hits trickling down from mortgages to cable TV, the spouses had better get a Christmas job if they’re gonna play another hand of consumption poker at “Casino Amerikana”

…that’s IF these little spending junkies can FIND one.

“That’s one 60 inch HDTV home entertainment center with accessories on Capital One Visa to go ?” :)

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Comment by Michael Fink
2008-12-02 06:49:43

Palmy,

I’m totally in agreement with you.. The stock market has become another day at the race tracks; just with better long term odds. It’s sad, but the mechanism of capatalism has become nothing more then then a very sophisticated ponzi/gambling scheme. I’ve thought this for a long time, and more and more, I become convinced that my initial impression was right.

I am invested, and continue to buy and sell (sometimes even day trade) stocks. However, I now know it’s nothing more then gambling; I’m basically playing blackjack, hopefully with the odds tilted a bit in my favor.

Timing, news flow, and the next govt helicopter drop of money are what determine the correct angles to take with trades. It’s not about P/E, earnings growth, profit growth.. It’s all about the next “card” to hit the table. Sad, but that’s what this has become.

Hopefully mainstream America (with it’s rampant gambling addiction) does not catch on to the fact that the stock market is the biggest legal casino on earth. If they do; we are all in for trouble.. I know more degenerate gamblers (by about 10X) then I do drug addicts/alcoholics. God help us all if Joe 6Pack and friends start to trade options and leverage up on the stock market.

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Comment by palmetto
2008-12-02 07:01:35

“It’s all about the next “card” to hit the table.”

Awesome, Mike. That nails it exactly.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 07:04:40

Having spent far more time gambling than most, I can verify that Wall Street is just another casino, albeit with clocks.

It’s been fun watching the shorts kill the longs and vice versa, in this choppiest of chumming markets…

 
Comment by Michael Fink
2008-12-02 07:06:11

On that note, one of the Trump casinos might be on it’s way to Chapter 11. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28003103

 
Comment by hd74man
2008-12-02 08:20:18

RE: I know more degenerate gamblers (by about 10X) then I do drug addicts/alcoholics.

The scratch lotto ticket buyers are always 6 deep in front of me when I go to pay for my morning’s cup ‘o Joe @ 7AM in the morning at the convenience store.

With like 35 games to chose from, they really tie things up. Most look like they’ve just come out of their shipping crate down by the RR tracks.

I really need to go buy a Zuerig.

 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-12-02 08:49:17

The other day I noticed that they have $10 scratch offs (lottery cards) here in IL. Can you believe that? $10!?

When gov’t calls for revenue solutions - this is the kind of stuff they have in mind.

 
Comment by Al
2008-12-02 09:04:58

Re: the stock markets and gambling

I am at heart a buy and hold guy, but I bailed on that theory thanks to the discussions here. I’ve been playing the volatility (gambling) a certain amount since. I’m looking forward to 2012 or whenever when I can go back to buy and hold.

 
Comment by DinOR
2008-12-02 09:14:23

“lotto ticket buyers are always 6 deep in front of me” LOL!

( Sung to the tune of Midnight Rambler )

Well I’m talkin’ ’bout that Jimmy Dean pork sausage!

Just like they got down at “Cool’s”

Stopped in for a 12 pack of pounders

Now I’m STUCK behind these Welfare tools!

( So far the band only let’s me sing that in practice… but one of these nights!? )

 
Comment by Asparagus
2008-12-02 10:49:48

A sentence from Yahoo Finance’s lead article:

“The Dow Jones industrials rose 250 points, regaining more than a third of Monday’s nearly 680-point plunge.”

This is like fake reporting.

 
 
Comment by crash1
2008-12-02 07:11:14

The stock market has not been a “market” for a long time. Maybe never. Its a casino. It is all about timing and manipulation by companies, traders and governments. Understand that and you’ll make money up or down.

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Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-12-02 10:18:46

I find it frustrating that so many people have made money (and lost it) on Wall Street that they are “insulted” that the comparison has been made. Especially when you talk about (most) derivatives.

Derivatives add legitimacy to what still amounts to common backroom gambling. When you have an industry that is neither transparent nor well regulated, I think only a fool or a crook would play the game. I’m still amazed that everyone was willing to sell derivatives yet not required to back it up with real cash reserves. In any other industry, they’d be in jail.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 11:01:52

Quite often on here, many of you babble on about some alphabet soup ETF you are gambling on.

It doesn’t matter what it is, it could be a piece of used dental floss on which to wager, or a gallon of snot, it matters not…

 
 
Comment by DinOR
2008-12-02 08:30:35

palmetto,

Just as few of us are “true” introverts or extroverts, few among us are “pure” daytraders. When you’re trading purely off an issue’s momentum, then you’re right ( we’re really not the concerned with the company’s fundamentals! )

But most of us have “core holdings” that form the cornerstone of our portfolio, and that should be where the brunt of your assets reside.

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Comment by pismoclam
2008-12-02 21:32:31

Thanks to this blog, I bought puts on WaMu and DSL and made a lot of money. However, when the financials cracked as Bear Stearns faltered and we saw Lehman hickup at $60 I got brown on my neck. Everyone should have shorted (bought puts) on the home builders and financials. It was a cinch; until they went up. The ‘Black Swan’ was visable to those of us who follow such things. It only took guts!!! And I didn’t have much since it was contrary to the herd think. Oh well. Will we have a chance on the way up???

 
 
Comment by lucy
2008-12-02 10:05:17

By definition, traders trade. Investors, of whom i’m sure there there are many here, are probably waiting like me for a better time and price at which to invest.

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Comment by Asparagus
2008-12-02 05:53:46

Some auto sales data coming out today. That could reaffirm the fear that everyone forgot overnight.

Comment by takingbets
2008-12-02 09:38:59

Do you know when they are going to be released? The calendar I watch shows the data release at 12.00am and i have yet to see the figures.

Comment by Asparagus
2008-12-02 10:42:46

Not sure they come out at a set time. It usually comes out throughout the day, first Ford, then Toyota, then GM….

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Comment by Leighsong
2008-12-02 07:12:13

Sigh.

Today I fear bad news IS bad news for the market.

Fed purchasing paper, Sears down, Beaser 4Q down, global markets down (look surprised).

Oh, and let’s not forget Goldman -2B and oil below 50.

20 minutes to opening bell.

Pray I’m wrong,
Leigh

Comment by darthrealtor
2008-12-02 08:59:42

I’d pray your right!

Comment by Leighsong
2008-12-02 10:41:19

Well, so far, we’re up about 250.

Leigh ;)

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Comment by mrktMaven
2008-12-02 07:36:42

A 14 day stochRSI has been giving on the money buy/sell signals for the last 2 months. It doesn’t always work, however.

It’s funny how recently made new lows go unmentioned. Remember when everyone was arguing October’s low was the bottom? Today’s argument is November’s low is the bottom.

 
Comment by cougar91
2008-12-02 09:38:07

I don’t want to make any general investment strategy to anyone but one should remember to do the reverse of what everyone else is doing in the market when the emotions (ie volatility) runs high. When everyone is running away from volatility, you run to volatility.

Something like, when the VIX is very high, be the seller of volatility via shorting puts on stocks highly correlated to SP500 and hedge with a small portion of double inverse SP500. You earn the high put premiums while protected against complete market collapse. Example: sell at-the-money Verizon puts for one month, earn 8% in premium for one month, take on SDS at 25-30% of your put contract notional values. Repeat every month. If you put on your off-setting positions correctly, you can easily earn double digits return with very low correlation to the overall market. It’s been working quite well for me.

In this type of market, naked longs or shorts have too much risk. Off-setting positions while earning high volatility premium is the way to go.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2008-12-02 05:35:32

I heard the moonbat Pelosi on network news this morning, saying ‘we have to build jobs for the 21st. century’. Wonder what that means? Roadwork?

States Paint Grim Picture, Ask for Help…
Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, who heads the National Governors Association, and Vermont Gov. James Douglas met with congressional leaders Monday to give them a preview of the association’s proposal, which seeks at least $126 billion of federal funding to help states pay for rebuilding infrastructure, expanding social programs and extending unemployment benefits.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who was among the lawmakers meeting with the two governors Monday, has voiced support for a state stimulus package that includes money to jump-start infrastructure projects, though the California Democrat hasn’t settled on a specific amount. Mr. Obama has asked Congress to prepare a stimulus package by the day he takes office.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122816536473969919.html?mod=todays_us_page_one

Comment by Quirk
2008-12-02 06:07:35

Road-building? Infrastructure projects? Pelosi and the wacky liberals DO have a recovery plan: The government will bail out itself.

 
Comment by palmetto
2008-12-02 06:16:53

“expanding social programs”

They JUST. DON’T. GET IT. Cut back, you turds! Pelosi wants to expand social programs, let her do it out of her own pocket. Lady Bountiful Impeachment Is Off The Table. .

 
Comment by taxmeupthebooty
2008-12-02 06:29:02

they like to use the new deal as an example of CREATING jobs
it failed completely in 1937

$ + labor + job

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2008-12-02 07:45:21

PLEASE DEAR GAWD SEND SOME $$$ TO NYC we need that damn 2nd ave subway built 30 years ago put people to work and build this damn thing in 2 years not 10

Sardine city yesterday on the 6 train broke down all passengers told to get off then wait for 4 jam packed subways to pass before squeezing into a car

2nd proposal, lots of people like working 2nd 3rd shift holidays and weekends, so lets give tax breaks to companies that create these kinds of jobs …sort of like congestion pricing ZERO breaks if all your employees work M-F 9-5.

 
Comment by hd74man
2008-12-02 08:30:04

RE: Roadwork?

Yeah, I can’t fathom all this BS about “jobs creation” related to infrastructure spending.

So, the bridge is repaired in a couple years years…then what?

And all the blather about “green work”.

WTF is that is suppose to be? Planting new grass on the courtyards of inner city housing projects?

Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-12-02 10:28:03

“So, the bridge is repaired in a couple years years…then what?”

Why not ask the people of Minneapolis if bridge maintenance and inspections are a big deal? The current administration has so woefully underfunded government regulatory agencies (from Wall St. today to the Army Corps of Engineers with Katrina) that we could throw trillions at the problem and still not get the job done in 4 years.

However, we’ll still have the usual retards try to lay all the blame on liberals for the “failure of government” as we play damage control after every “unforeseen” disaster that could have been prevented years in advance simply by having sensible taxation and spending priorities.

Comment by Incredulous (the original)
2008-12-02 11:31:57

Why should the federal government pay for state and municiple building/repair projects? People who sit around waiting for federal money (i.e., handouts, or tax rebates) to fix their local messes are nuts.

By the way, where were the Mayor of New Orleans and Governor of Louisana when Katrina rolled in? The Governor refused to ask for federal troops to guard New Orleans ahead of time (the President cannot legally send in the National Guard without invitation by the Governor), and the Mayor sent most of the police home, did NO evacuations, provided no food at the convention center, and did absolutely nothing at all. Yet, the federal government and president are blamed. And when it was all over, the idiot residents (most living elsewhere) re-elected the criminal, dumbass, racist mayor. They got what they paid for: in other words, zilch.

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Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-12-02 13:30:12

“The Governor refused to ask for federal troops to guard New Orleans ahead of time”

Lol, yeah, her national guard troops were sent to Iraq and she wasn’t psychic so string her up!

FEMA couldn’t even be bothered to deliver fresh water for 5 days to the Superdome. Heckuvajob, Brownie!

I’d love to see state and municipal government take over the burden of their infrastructure. The feds need to hand over some of their share to the states if we do that. If the Decider et al. couldn’t be bothered to fund FEMA or homeland security, he should have at least let the states know ahead of time not to count on them. Too bad he spends more money taking care of Iraqis than Americans.

 
 
Comment by James
2008-12-02 13:53:35

Problem is their aren’t many liberal engineers. You all seem to be in education and the arts.

So, when we describe problems to liberals they don’t ever seem to understand it.

;)

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Comment by exeter
2008-12-02 17:56:43

“However, we’ll still have the usual retards try to lay all the blame on liberals for the “failure of government””

And the typical clueless retards fell for it and replied.

I love it!

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Comment by DinOR
2008-12-02 08:34:07

wmbz,

WPA Part II?

( One of my favorite commentators uses the phrase “moonbats” too ) :)

Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 08:43:23

1933: The people are dead-broke, but we are the largest creditor nation on the planet, which pays the wages of WPA.

2009: The people are dead-broke, and we are the largest debtor nation on the planet, which can’t pay the wages of WPA II.

Comment by packman
2008-12-02 09:06:46

Bingo. I don’t see how the Fedguv is going to get us out of this one. We got out of the last depression (supposedly) by:

- Implementing socialist programs to put people to work and force savings
- Going to a massive war

We can afford neither of those this time. What to do? What to do?

Along those lines, I’m reminded of a “Deep Thoughts” by Stuart Smalley:

“Instead of building newer and bigger weapons of mass destruction, we should try and get more use out of the ones we already have.”

God I hope it doesn’t happen. Unfortunately just as many homes are now experiencing relational stress due to strained finances, I fear the same is starting worldwide. Note the new tensions in Korea.

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Comment by DinOR
2008-12-02 09:17:41

And Glenn Beck made that very observation several months ago when these were “campaign promises”. Obviously no one listened then.

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Comment by reuven
2008-12-02 10:03:51

I have a hunch that it was easier to find hard-working people in the 30s willing to do quality construction work than it is in the 00’s!

Think we could build a Hoover Dam today?

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Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2008-12-02 12:22:58

Over thanksgiving holiday there was some program on TV talking about the whitehouse. It mentioned when they built the white house, they used “immigrant” labor. Same with the Brooklyn Bridge. I got a chuckle out of it. The whole thing with mexicans today has been going on forever in this country.

 
Comment by packman
2008-12-02 13:49:47

They actually said “immigrant”? Yeah, that’s what they were - they were… “immigrants”.

Talk about sugar-coating. That’s just wrong.

 
 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-12-02 08:44:51

A congresscritter’s idea of viable 21st Century jobs:

a. congressman
b. lawyer
c. civil servant
d. big box greeter
e. gangbanger
f. sports star
g. celebrity
h. compliant journalist
i. hedge fund manager
j. professional poker player
k. desperate housewife
l. real estate agent
m. pro wrestler
n. lobbyist
o. Hollywood madame

chime in…

Comment by DinOR
2008-12-02 09:49:43

edge,

What’s happened here ( now that everyone has figured out there won’t be any new Bill Gates any time soon? ) is that the path ‘to’ wealth IS… through celebrity!

Chris Matthews and Al Franken are proving that it can actually cut BOTH ways by trading celebrity for congresscritter.

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Comment by measton
2008-12-02 10:51:07

What’s happened here ( now that everyone has figured out there won’t be any new Bill Gates any time soon? ) is that the path ‘to’ wealth IS… through celebrity!

That’s just the way the elite like it no upward or downward movement in ones economic status no matter how smart hardworking or dumb.

 
 
 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-12-02 08:35:45

“…the association’s proposal, which seeks at least $126 billion of federal funding to help states pay for…expanding social programs…”

When comparing this current episode with the Great Depression it is helpful to remember that today, unlike back then, we already have healthy headstart in entitlement spending.

Oh, what’s that you say? We’ve spent so much on these wars that we should now spend more here at home?

That might be the popular tune right now, but the meter’s still running on the wars. Has a real exit strategy even been discussed?
Just because they’ve been wiped off the front page doesn’t mean the damage has been undone.

Comment by Al
2008-12-02 10:05:23

“Has a real exit strategy even been discussed?”

I have one. Declare victory and bring home the troops. When Iraq and Afghanistan descend into chaos far worse than before the invasions, simply claim no one saw this coming.

 
 
Comment by FP
2008-12-02 09:05:05

If they are going to infrastructure jobs, why are they doing road work? Many state projects already do that. Why not do something for American Public schools. Upgrade some of their facilities. Hire a bunch of teachers. Increase the amount of rooms (not students in the rooms), hire teachers, aids, athletic personnel for afterschool activities. We can help america build for the future. my thoughts.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 09:30:43

California’s education system has been financed by state lottery sales the past 20+ years, and there’s only so many people nowadays willing to self-tax themselves, and sales are down quite a bit…

Comment by Not Mssing It
2008-12-02 10:08:34

…there’s only so many people nowadays willing to self-tax themselves,…

Link?
Addictions always find a way

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Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 10:12:47

I read a month or 2 ago that Ca. lottery sales were down 10%, and probably more now.

 
Comment by measton
2008-12-02 10:52:12

Time to legalize drugs and tax them?

 
 
Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-12-02 11:01:25

People with children should bear a disproportionate burden of the cost of the nanny state to educate their children, but instead the cost of their CHOICE of having kids is disproportionately put on childfree singles/couples so the “family values” crowd can have more tax breaks to fund their McMansions, tithing, boutiques and drug dealers.

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Comment by gather no moss
2008-12-02 12:16:04

It’s happening already in Massachusetts. The state allows school districts to charge students up to $3700 for full-day kindergarten. (They have to provide half a day for free, but in my district, where the fee is “only” $1000, there is but one half day class and it’s clear on the other side of town).

Our district charges about $500 per pupil for the bus, I heard something about Newton charging $900. We also charge $400 a year for Band which starts in fourth grade. At the high school level, sports cost $1000 per student per sport.

 
 
 
Comment by Carlos Cisco
2008-12-02 09:33:22

Enough money is wasted on the ignorant demographic to give the other 30 percent of our youth the best education on the planet. Wont happen because of the hand wringing PC clamoring for equality and inclusion. Thats what youve got, now, massive waste to warehouse the unteachable while the best students grit their teeth in frustration. And you want to throw more $$ at it??

Comment by DinOR
2008-12-02 10:01:45

Carlos,

Well said and here’s what’s even worse. I graduated HS in 1977. My daughters were Class of ‘03 and ‘06. It’s incredible to me just how little has changed. If anything, it’s gotten worse.

The first thing the faculty does is to quickly divide the kids into groups. ( Whether or not the kid wants to be “classified” ) Stoners, jocks, nerds etc. It makes them MUCH easier to control when they’re in “pre-assigned” groups.

To make the job even easier, if you’re older brother was a jock, then so shall you! See? Easy. ( What a freakin’ waste )

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Comment by FP
2008-12-02 11:28:18

My son went to a public elementary school the first three years (k-2). There were so many latin students that barely speak english in that school. School was literally falling apart, no afterschool programs, 35 students per clasn and no aides. On top of that 50 percents of the my kids class barely speak english and he ended up being an aide most of the time at freakin 6 years old. My wife tried to do all the fund raising stuff but most parents never participate or give money. She was very frustrated. Finally we decided to put my kid in a private school. It’s been 4 years now but you can see the difference. Private school has the great facilities, everyone speaks english, great afterschool programs and sports, everyone participates in fund raising and donates what they can. It is a shame because I went to a public school and it was really never like that. now it’s a disgrace…..

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Comment by In Montana
2008-12-02 16:20:03

I’m a boomer and our classes were 40+ at LA City schools. But then, we had strict discipline.

 
 
Comment by az_lender
2008-12-02 12:49:24

Good post Carlos.

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Comment by BanteringBear
2008-12-02 10:25:06

“If they are going to infrastructure jobs, why are they doing road work?”

After driving to SeaTac airport and back twice over the holidays (a 150 mile round trip from my house) I am convinced that cars are not our future. The traffic was MUCH worse than last year when I did the same thing. I don’t know if it was the cheap gas or it’s just ‘different’ around here, but people were out in droves both Wednesday and Sunday.

All this got me to thinking that there are just too many cars. We need to move into rail systems in this country, especially because of the size. We could have a high speed rail from Portland to Seattle with a travel time of less than an hour. Anybody who’s fought traffic through Vancouver, Fort Lewis, Renton, etc., knows how bad it is. What in the hell are we waiting for? If we can pour a bunch of money into failing banks (oh, I almost forgot, those are ‘investments’ for the American people), then we can start solving our transportation nightmare. When there are 50 mile long backups, the Interstate is broken.

Comment by Matt_in_TX
2008-12-02 20:15:13

I remember reading something (or maybe it was gossip with my state highway engineer friend) about how the “infrastructure improvement” of SeaTac’s third runway was going to be an infrastructure killer for the nearby road system. Something about several million dump truck runs…

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Comment by wmbz
2008-12-02 05:37:59

Bond Risk Surges to Record on Concern Slump ‘Too Hard to Fix’
By Aaron Pan and Abigail Moses

Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) — The cost of protecting corporate bonds from default soared to a record on concern central banks are reaching the limit of what they can do to ease the severity of the global economic recession.

Credit-default swaps on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-risk, high-yield credit ratings increased 18 basis points to 956, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. prices at 9:36 a.m. in London. The Markit iTraxx Europe index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings climbed 3.5 basis points to 191.5 and earlier traded at a record 198.

“The economic slump is too hard for anyone to fix right away,” said Tetsushi Nagato of Schroder Investment Management Japan Ltd., whose parent manages the equivalent of $205 billion.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_uPmgNdJDd0&refer=home

Comment by palmetto
2008-12-02 06:35:30

“The economic slump is too hard for anyone to fix right away,” said Tetsushi Nagato of Schroder Investment Management Japan Ltd., whose parent manages the equivalent of $205 billion.”

Wish my parent had managed the equivalent of $205 billion.

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-12-02 06:48:13

It means parent company, dingbat! ;-)

Comment by palmetto
2008-12-02 06:54:44

Ya gotta be kiddin’ me, pussy. Have another cuppa and then maybe you’ll realize the palmster was just makin’ a play on words.

Sigh. No wonder comedians have descended to the level of fart and titty jokes.

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Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-12-02 07:08:56

I think FPSS was making a funny.

 
Comment by SawItComing
2008-12-02 09:33:52

Ha Ha HA HA… he said fart! Ha Ha… ant titty! Ha ha.

Wait what?

 
 
Comment by az_lender
2008-12-02 12:50:25

FPSS, you mentioned being interested in the Tanzania trip. If so, email me, mimigerstell [at] yahoo [dot] com

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Comment by CrookCounty
2008-12-02 06:36:15

Don’t worry. The snake can eat its own tail!

When the market opens we want you to buy all the … you can. Don’t worry if the price goes up, just keep buying.

But gentlemen, they’re going to broadcast the crop report in an hour.

Let us worry about that. :P

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aJ_MDvdVgo8s

Bernanke Says Fed May Buy Treasuries to Aid Economy (Update3)

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said he has “obviously limited” room to lower interest rates further and may use less conventional policies, such as buying Treasury securities, to revive the economy.

One option is for the Fed to buy “longer-term Treasury or agency securities on the open market in substantial quantities,” Bernanke said. “This approach might influence the yields on these securities, thus helping to spur aggregate demand.”

Treasury prices rose on Bernanke’s remarks, with yields on 10-year Treasuries tumbling 25 basis points to a record low of 2.67 percent at 2:31 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. The yield was the lowest since daily Fed records started in 1962 and the least since 1955 as measured on a monthly basis. One basis point is equal to 0.01 percentage point.

 
 
Comment by llcarlos
2008-12-02 05:39:44

Some guest on CNBC is saying California home sales are up 100% off the low.

Comment by palmetto
2008-12-02 05:49:03

While the Governator is wringing his hands saying Cali could run out of money by next year. I posted the article, but the system is having it for breakfast right now.

Comment by llcarlos
2008-12-02 05:53:27

I think that when you are broke you have to stop spending money. The govt doesn’t think that is right.

Comment by palmetto
2008-12-02 05:59:53

That was part of my post, carlos. Here’s the Governator desperately wringing his hands, but does he do what normal folks have to do when they run out of money? Don’t spend what you haven’t got.

And how about govmint workers, elected and unelected, take some steep pay cuts like others have to? How about they give up their insurance, like others are forced to? How about they take on second jobs (if they can find them)?

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Comment by max4me
2008-12-02 06:04:44

But half the problem is that the state legislator, wont give up their pet projects, the cold reality of the state finical crisis had been staring everyone in the face for years now, we got tons of money off the tech boom and back in 2002 when we should have worked things out and cut back or raises taxes we got a boon from the housing bubble

 
Comment by palmetto
2008-12-02 06:12:31

“But half the problem is that the state legislator, wont give up their pet projects,”

When I wuz a pup, my parents had the ideal method of dealing with us kids when we manifested anything close to being “spoiled brats”. Whenever we started fighting amongst ourselves about who was getting what or who had what, they took it all away from all four pups equally. ‘Course, one of my fellow pupsters quickly learned that if he couldn’t have something, he sure could ruin it for everyone else by screaming “No Fair!”. I must say I wasn’t too upset when he tried to pull that with his school mates and got the crap beat outta him.

 
Comment by taxmeupthebooty
2008-12-02 06:31:41

they all get raises
feds never take a cut
for driving to work , watching a clock, then going home at exactly the right time

 
 
Comment by skroodle
2008-12-02 07:38:11

Strange…I don’t hear “prop 13″ mentioned at all by any Kalifornians.

I guess as long as you know the Feds will step in with a few billion dollars to tide them threw this short-term problem it doesn’t really matter and they can get back to those important gay marriage issues.

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Comment by DinOR
2008-12-02 08:41:05

skroodle,

Or even consider getting people that have been in the same home since the late 70’s that is now worth $1.4 mil. to step up and pay their fair share?

Of course even though they have effectively “re-purchased” their home numerous times through MEW extraction.

 
Comment by reuven
2008-12-02 10:06:39

There’s another side to this. But for the fact that there were government-backed mortgages available to every strawberry picker, these homes wouldn’t now be “worth” 1.4 Million.

It’s not fair to price some responsible person out of his home because crazy specu-vestors were bidding up the prices of houses around him.

 
Comment by Skip
2008-12-02 10:44:18

But I guess it is fair to make taxpayers from other states send their tax dollars to California.

 
Comment by DinOR
2008-12-02 10:48:33

reuven,

Yeah I can kinda get on board with that ( and it certainly is their battle cry ) but for every sensible homeowner in Cali that left their equity be I can show you 20 that bilked as much as they could ‘out’ of it.

My problem is in defining “cost basis”. We’ve discussed this at length on Patrick’s and fairly determined that when you are re-financing, having an entirely NEW appraisal being done, signing all new loan doc’s and starting over w/ a new 30 year loan ( you ARE in essence “re-buying” your home )

So while it’s true, there were a lot of market distortions taking place, if you owe $1.4 mil. on your home now appraised @ $1.4 mil. then your taxes should reflect that, no?

 
Comment by borderbuster
2008-12-02 11:02:23

” It’s not fair to price some responsible person out of his home because crazy specu-vestors were bidding up the prices of houses around him.”

My tax payments are now roughly the same as my mortgage payments were in 2000. And still going up.

 
 
Comment by michael
2008-12-02 08:02:02

well…keynsian econ says the gubmint should spend when the economy is bad.

(it also says to NOT spend and save when the economy is good but no one talks about that part)

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Comment by hd74man
2008-12-02 09:57:24

RE: the Governator is wringing his hands saying Cali could run out of money by next year.

Boo-hoo for CA where public employee unions run the show.

 
 
Comment by smathis
2008-12-02 07:20:35

Translation: Last month, we sold 1 house.
This month, we sold 2!

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-12-02 07:33:24

Yeah, “statistics” off an insanely low base.

Comment by Al
2008-12-02 09:10:58

And of course, foreclosures are sales.

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Comment by palmetto
2008-12-02 05:43:36

Governator says Collyforhneeaahh headed for financial disaster and could run out of money by next year.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7760249.stm

Really, I just don’t get it. All this hand wringing about “running out of money”. Hey, if ya don’t got it, don’t spend it. There IS money coming in, just not as much as the pols would like. So, tough titty, cut back. Yes, it’s that simple. Oh, and there should be across the board pay cuts for all govmint workers, elected and unelected. This is what really gets me. They should have to bite the bullet like everyone else.

Comment by Molly
2008-12-02 06:17:42

Before employed people take mandatory pay cuts (which may be necessary), I want to see entitlements to illegal immigrants eliminated completely.

Also, California needs to make it even more expensive to drive here. Something like a buck-a-gallon gas tax just to pay down the deficit.

Comment by awaiting wipeout
2008-12-02 06:31:07

Molly,
The illegals have it better than many struggling Americans. Food Stamps (up to $598/mo), Section 8 (almost free housing), free medical, free dental (including free braces for their kids), CAP (cash assistance program), and lots of free gifts at Christmas (Catholic Charities). I know of a digital camera as an example.
As a So Californian, it makes me sick.

Comment by Not Mssing It
2008-12-02 10:29:50

free dental (including free braces for their kids)

Are you sure? I don’t believe there are any “free braces” programs?

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Comment by awaiting wipeout
2008-12-02 11:03:49

I see more and more illegal offspring children with braces on. I am not sure it its part of California’s Medi-Cal (called Medicaid in other states), or the state is paying a premium to another party. It could be part of the “healthy families” plan to cover poor children living in California. In our bldg. (sold home and renting) the section 8 illegal anchor brats have braces. Most of the parents aren’t getting any benefits in their underground economy jobs. Empirical evidence yes, but not unlikely an out of pocket expense.

 
Comment by awaiting wipeout
2008-12-02 11:05:47

stratch the word “not” unlikely. In a hurry!

 
Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2008-12-02 12:33:52

Well, just think… it could be worse… they could all have “grills.” Then you know you’re in a bad neighborhood. (Gold teeth plating)

 
 
 
 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-12-02 06:19:44

It seems like since forever people talked and talked about a tax revolt to force government to shrink by cutting off the money, starving the beast.. But they never had the will to do it.

Then, one day, it happened by accident.

 
Comment by GH
2008-12-02 06:20:56

Still plenty to be done here. I have heard talk of sales tax increase, which will most likely fail since taxable purchases are way down and a 20 - 40 cent gas tax (per gallon). And of course our fines for parking, traffic etc are way too low. These are great since the police can be used to arrest you if you don’t pay. Moa PowAA!

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-12-02 06:47:02

Yeah, sales tax increase headed into an epic recession.

That’s going to work for sure!

Comment by Anthony
2008-12-02 08:55:45

California will NEVER repeal prop 13; too many deadbeats in this state who don’t work–retirees and welfare addicts–who had houses given to them through inheritance and couldn’t pay fair market taxes.

After all, deadbeat “struggling” homeowners make up only a couple of percent of the population, but look at all the bailouts they’ve convinced Congress they’re worthy of.

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Comment by reuven
2008-12-02 10:08:51

Most deadbeat struggling homeowners bought their houses recently, so their property tax is set on a higher valuation. Prop 13 rewards people who largely didn’t try to get-rich-quick during the past 10 years! Maybe it’s OK to let them get something? They’ll end up paying for everyone else anyway, in some form.

 
 
 
Comment by DinOR
2008-12-02 08:48:30

GH,

LOL! Yes, way too low. Why it’s a virtual unending stream of “income”.

Here’s where a lot of people are going to get the surprise of their life though, with all of the strains on basic services and hiring freezes it simply won’t be enough to be a white female.

We’re getting article after article about native-born gals that have been laid-off that just-can’t-seem to replace their job! Certainly not at what they ‘were’ making. Welcome to “the club” ladies.

Comment by hd74man
2008-12-02 10:08:13

RE: it simply won’t be enough to be a white female.

A friend of mine’s 20-something daughter got a Master’s degree in Autistic Child Counseling.

She goes into private homes for “sessions” at a rate of $300 per hour all billed to the local school district.

My bud tell’s me she in “FAT CITY!”

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Comment by DinOR
2008-12-02 11:00:22

hd74man,

Not to discount that entirely but that field is so new it really isn’t a fair comparison. Most teachers have no idea how to even address dealing w/ autism.

My point more broadly is that in the past when the cries of EEO and quota hiring were the loudest a lot of white females were openly invited unabated into many hiring systems. They are now a victim of their own success.

Just the other day Ben linked an article about some 40-something gal making over a 100k as a marketing/PR rep and after months of looking ( and her “generosity” of being willing to work for “slightly less” ) was totally unable to land a job! Not even close. In the past she would have been absorbed right back into the system no questions asked.

I just wonder had this been more obvious -before- the election if their support for BHO would have been as strong? Again, welcome to “the club” ladies.

 
Comment by tresho
2008-12-02 11:16:21

My bud tell’s me she in “FAT CITY!” FAT CITY is a suburb of TAX CITY.

 
 
 
 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2008-12-02 06:14:47

Gasoline prices fall below 1935 levels! A reader testifies that there are places in Columbia, S.C. where a motorist can pump gasoline at $1.75 per gallon! Adjusted for inflation that’s 11¢ in 1935 money. What was gasoline actually selling for in 1935? 19¢!! Happy Motoring! - as the Esso people used to say.

Comment by palmetto
2008-12-02 06:19:29

See the USA
In your Chevrolet

Where’s laddie? He did a great update of that little ditty, one of the funniest things I ever read.

 
Comment by wmbz
2008-12-02 06:24:37

I have a relative that sold her VW Diesel last week and bought a brand new…… Chevy Subdivision! Because, gas is so cheap now and they need the room.

Comment by smathis
2008-12-02 07:15:46

I knew it. I am convinced that 95% of the population can ONLY function at that level. “Gas is expensive…better sell the Hummer, quick!” (two months later) “Ooohhh…gas is cheap now. Better sell the compact I just bought and get a Chevy Tahoe!”

Good grief…absolutely NO long-term planning ability whatsoever!

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-12-02 07:29:23

+1

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Comment by AK-LA
2008-12-02 07:40:25

I have a relative who did the exact same thing this year. Sell the Jeep Goliath! Whoops, buy a Tahoe! Now he’s disappointed - even with cheaper gas he still has to pay for his 50 mile commute. He was begging for gas subsidies instead of bank bailouts - that’s a long term winner.

I spent a lot of Thanksgiving biting my tongue.

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Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2008-12-02 07:44:39

Not only that, but after two weeks in Italy a few months back, the fact that any family over 4 thinks they need that behemoth just baffles me now.

I can’t count how many parents and kids I saw piling into their Fiats and Corsas (Corse?) or VW wagons at the largest and everyone seemed just fine.

Everyday I see trophy wives driving around solo in their black (it’s always black) Tahoes (sometimes it’s a Land Rover Discovery) and want to shake them.

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Comment by Al
2008-12-02 09:13:09

One of my neighbours, a family of 4, have a Hyundai Accent for their family car. They throw on a car top carrier for the longer trips.

 
Comment by JRinUT
2008-12-02 09:48:19

We just sold our Honda Accord and bought a Saturn Outlook cross-over. We are a family of 5. 7yr old, 3yr old, 11mo old. In the Honda we had to have the baby in an infant car seat, the 3yr old in a booster and the 7yr old had to squeeze somewhere inbetween. That only worked because we made the choice to ignore the new law that they passed in our state last year that said, paraphrasing, kids stay in booster until they are certain height or 8 years old. Talk about nanny state BS.

We’re planning a driving vacation next summer and we weren’t going to make the oldest sit there uncomfortably for many hours of driving. You can’t “pack ‘em in” like like you used to be able to in the old days.

I remember riding on laps squeezing 8 or 9 people into the family 5-seat corolla when i was growing up. You’d probably get charged with neglect or child abuse nowadays for something like that.

 
Comment by colomountains
2008-12-02 10:44:40

How am I going to do towing with a small car? Even the big cars struggle up the mountains when you are towing 4,000 lbs up a 20% include. I would like to see that.

We do a lot of long distance travelling and I can tell you that a small car would not work for us in that area.

You need to be comfortable and your kids need to be comfortable as well, otherwise you are going to be hearing the “are we there yet?”.

I have done long trips in small cars and they are not a picnic at all. That is the big difference between the sizes of cars.

Besides this America and I should be able to drive whatever I want and it is my problem paying for the fuel that it uses.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-12-02 11:10:56

‘I remember riding on laps squeezing 8 or 9 people into the family 5-seat corolla when i was growing up. You’d probably get charged with neglect or child abuse nowadays for something like that.’

Ah, yes, the child on the lap. Also known as the ‘Mormon airbag’. (I grew up in Utarr and am familiar with the phenomenon, being the oldest of eight (8). Heck, we used to all get in the back of a pickup truck and go flying down rough back country roads. It’s possible that I once had even more siblings, before a couple got bounced out and left behind.)

I have to tell you, nowadays if I saw someone driving along with a bunch of un-seatbelted little kids I’d be on the phone to the highway patrol in about 1.5 little tiny seconds, and screw our new WA law against talking on the cell phone while driving.
I happen to be good friends with a doctor who works the ER at Providence St. Peter’s. He claims that the inside of little kid’s crushed brain pans is especially disturbing. I would think that everyone’s traffic-accident mashed head would be equally gross, but that’s me—I’m dainty-like.

 
Comment by tresho
2008-12-02 11:20:37

I happen to be good friends with a doctor who works the ER ER doctors as a group were part of the big push for mandating child protection gear in cars due to their experience with the alternatives. This dates back to the late 1970’s. It’s “nanny state BS” until one of your loved ones gets severe brain damage that could have been prevented.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-12-02 11:31:44

‘It’s “nanny state BS” until one of your loved ones gets severe brain damage that could have been prevented.’

Testify, tresho!
And you know what, I don’t even require that I know and love them, they can be a total stranger to me and perhaps even a very bratty and unlikeable kid in general, and I’m STILL gonna get upset should they get maimed or killed when they didn’t have to be.
Like I said, I’m dainty-like that way.

 
Comment by James
2008-12-02 14:05:37

@colomountains

There are going to be some segements of the population that need a larger vehicle and/or more towing power.

The uncomfortable thing is silly though. There is slightly cramped and then their is unsafe.

For the record, its often much more viable to rent than to get a bigger car. If you only use the car for commuting and its a one passenger vehicle; a basic 4 doof normally does fine for most people. If you have a big trip then rent a van. Its cheaper than owning a big SUV all the time.

I argued my wife out of a van purchase just working the numbers. The occasional 350$ per week for the big SUV vs the additional car payment, gas and mantinance.

 
Comment by austin
2008-12-02 15:21:05

I grew up in Rhodesia–we’d be piled into the back of a pickup with sacks of dried mopani worms (a treat for the farm labour), pesticides, and heavy machinery all mixed up together. Then we’d drive four or five hours at high speed on strip roads (2 thin ribbons of tar on dirt).

I did know kids who were “bumped out”. But most of them survived.

If the police had tried to intervene…. Well, we were more worried about being shot at by the terrorist forces who ambushed from the long grass.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-12-02 17:19:06

‘I did know kids who were “bumped out”. But most of them survived. If the police had tried to intervene…. Well, we were more worried about being shot at by the terrorist forces who ambushed from the long grass.’

Okay, you’ve trumped me. I admit it. And may I ask, are you still in Rhodesia, or did you have the brains to spit out the mopani worms and get the fook out? If you’re still there, tell us more, because Rhodesia interests me.

 
Comment by Muggy
2008-12-02 17:27:28

“Ah, yes, the child on the lap. Also known as the ‘Mormon airbag’.”

OMFG I am laughing so hard. Oh, man.

 
Comment by desertdweller
2008-12-02 19:57:21

1960 VW bug,In 1960.
Fully loaded with mom,dad,babybrother,me and all of our belongings in every square inch and well, and no room to wiggle at all. Drove from LA to Portland.Wintertime. Ahh the military life. Dad was so smart like that. *snark off*. Going to visit the Colonel, wish me luck.

I think I still hear mom and dad yelling at each other.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2008-12-02 22:46:01

Whoops, I meant families less than five.

James points out my real rant, though, and a more reasonable solution.

I’d wager it’s a VERY small percentage of the time that those things are filled with people/gear. More often than not, I only see one person in them.

 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-12-02 08:28:24

As a teenager I worked at a grocery store and had to stock the bacon/ hot dogs/ pre-packaged meats aisle.

I swear, as God as my witness, people spent more time and effort picking out a single package of bacon then they did selecting their clothes, spouse, house, or car.

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Comment by JRinUT
2008-12-02 09:49:53

LOL! I loves me some salt pork!

 
 
 
 
Comment by Michael Fink
2008-12-02 06:57:30

If you don’t believe that there is actually a gas shortage (I’m not sure) then it only makes sense that gas is cheaper today then it was in 1935. Transportation is better, refineries are better (both are MUCH more automated, requiring far fewer people), drilling techniques are better, etc, etc, etc..

The only thing that would make gas prices go up is an actual shortage of crude. I don’t think that we have a shortage of crude (yet); so, it only makes sense that the prices are, inflation adjusted, falling.

It’s the same thing as housing. It’s cheaper to build a house today (inflation adjusted) then it was 100 years ago. So, like all things, the price of housing should fall (if there’s no shortage of raw materials and land) over time, not go up.

The running out of land argument is just insane. I’ve said many times, I was told (in Palm Beach) that we were running out of land by RE agents standing in VACANT lots right next to the condo towers we were walking through. But, even more extreme, go into the middle of the country. We are FLOODED in land supply, there’s a massive glut of land. And therefore, it makes sense that, over time, home prices will fall (regardless of the bubble).

Comment by Joe Schmoe
2008-12-02 07:12:25

I have no opinion about whether there is an oil shortage, but I do know that gas wasn’t really all that cheap in the past. While today we always think of the 30’s-50’s as the era of $.10/gallon gasoline, I read somewhere that in 2001 dollars gas was something like $2.40/gallon in the mid-1950’s.

The early success of the VW Beetle (the “Volkswagen,” or “people’s car,” the automobile designed at the request of Hitler and the Third Reich — Google it and see) in the US was due in part to its fuel efficiency, and in the late 1950’s and early 1960’s the Big Three introduced several forgotten compact models, like the Ford Falcon, the Plymouth Valiant and the Studebaker Lark. These cars were not terribly fuel-efficient by modern standards but they were a big improvement at the time and were marketed as “thrifty” and “economical” cars.

Comment by DinOR
2008-12-02 11:03:20

Joe,

Don’t forget the “Corvair” our “air-cooled” response to the Bug!

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Comment by ozajh
2008-12-02 19:03:46

In Australia, where the distances are just as big as in the US, those ‘compact models’ were marketed as full-size family transport.

In the case of the Falcon, it still is. (Ford Australia kept the name going when Ford US dropped it, and started designing their own models from about 1972 or so.)

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Comment by desertdweller
2008-12-02 19:59:31

Got some high school history with those Larks, Valiants, and grandpa made the Studebakers.
I seriously miss those window wings that helped with ventilation.

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Comment by DinOR
2008-12-02 08:52:52

Micael Fink,

And when mortgage money is north of 9% there will be even more land!

 
 
Comment by dude
2008-12-02 07:03:51

I filled up for $1.62/gal in St. George, UT on Sunday night at a Chevron. Here in Palmdale this morning it was $1.82.

 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-12-02 07:14:27

In our part of upstate SC the price was as low as $1.67 point nine yesterday. But I noticed a huge difference in the price of midgrade (plus 20 cents) and premium (another 20 cents).

Also, why is Diesel fuel a buck a gallon higher? I feel sorry for truckers and those who have Diesel cars.

Comment by peter a
2008-12-02 07:43:21

Low sulfur diesel costs more to produce.

Comment by tresho
2008-12-02 11:41:51

Low sulfur diesel costs more to produce. True, but not enough info. There’s a station in town which sells the old grade of sulfured diesel. It’s maybe $0.20/gal cheaper than low sulfur diesel, and still more than a $1/gal higher than gasoline at the same station. I believe the worldwide demand for diesel fuel is much higher than for gasoline, while in the USA the reverse seems to be true.

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Comment by Seattle Renter
2008-12-02 11:44:44

And what’s the deal anyway with the whole “point nine” thing?

Where’s my “point one” of a cent change you thieving bastards?!

SR

 
Comment by socaljettech
2008-12-02 18:34:51

The real reason is because the US refinerys are not geared up to produce enough diesel- the demand is up but they are set up to produce gasoline for the most part. I have a diesel truck now- the mileage improvement pays for some of the difference in price but the real savings has been in the lack of maintenence neccesary (@ 180,000 miles so far and going strong) for a diesel engine.

 
 
Comment by ravi
2008-12-02 07:36:33

It’s 1.61 here today in Fort Worth, TX. I here it’s lower than 1.50 in parts of Houston.

 
Comment by takingbets
2008-12-02 07:46:05

Over the past few years I’ve noticed that the price of gas falls right before Christmas. I think they do this to get the mopes to buy more junk from retailers. Then it starts moving upwards in january. It will happen again this year.

Comment by Not Mssing It
2008-12-02 10:32:47

You calling a bottom on fuel prices?

 
 
Comment by wolfgirl
2008-12-02 08:57:49

Yesterday gas was 1.57 in Greer, SC

 
Comment by DennisN
2008-12-02 09:10:33

Gas is $1.69 here in Boise.

My dad said that gas was 10 gallons for $1 right after WWII.

Comment by Skip
2008-12-02 12:39:23

My mother still has some glasses she got free for a fill-up.

 
 
Comment by tresho
2008-12-02 11:24:07

Gasoline prices fall below 1935 levels!..Adjusted for inflation This sort of calculation ignores the role of petro prices on general price levels. It is like saying “Adjusted for inflation, prices haven’t ever changed.”

 
 
Comment by Muggy
2008-12-02 06:16:46

The Dugger Family is on NBC’s today show. You know, the family from Arkansas that has 18 kids.

He’s a real estate agent.

Comment by Muggy
2008-12-02 06:21:17

Wow, now they have an “expert” on. She’s telling me to make sure I don’t pay for services I don’t use.

Wait, so if I don’t use it, don’t buy it??

Breaking news: don’t bounce checks!

(drools…)

Comment by Muggy
2008-12-02 06:24:12

Now Matt Lauer is telling every one to read the fine print!!Thanks Matt!!

(returns to rock, by fire, to grill whole buffalo…)

Comment by palmetto
2008-12-02 06:33:26

Matt Lousy is a prime example of what’s wrong with the US. I looked up the definition of the word “smarmy” and dang if his picture wasn’t right next to the entry in the dictionary.

Gotta admit, though, one of the greatest TV bloopers has to be when he recently asked Robert Kennedy, Jr. how his dad was doing. I nearly messed myself laughing.

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Comment by Blano
2008-12-02 06:45:17

OMIGOD!!! Did he really say that???

 
Comment by smathis
2008-12-02 07:24:55

OMG. I couldn’t believe this really happened (Matt Lauer asking Robert Kennedy, Jr. “how’s your dad doing?”), so I searched YouTube.

Here it is!:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZYtiKeh2CA

What a yutz. I mean really…how stupid is that? The guy’s name is “Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.” In what way would that confuse you into thinking that he’s Ted Kennedy’s son?

 
Comment by sf jack
2008-12-02 08:52:02

Lauer’s picture might be right next “smarmy” in the dictionary, but the bigger picture next to it is one of Bob Costas.

As for the definition of “jackass”, Keith Olbermann easily took over the definitive role from Bill O’Reilly earlier this year.

 
Comment by Skip
2008-12-02 09:10:18

Bill O’Reilly will always be the Falafel Man to me.

 
Comment by desertdweller
2008-12-02 20:04:35

No way, that Bill O Liely loses his bs first position. And he was a Loofah man.
Falafel? what was That incident?
No, he was into Loofa-ing his chickadee.

Yea, Keith gets passionate, but he isn’t a liar like the Bill O liely.

 
 
 
Comment by palmetto
2008-12-02 06:27:50

“She’s telling me to make sure I don’t pay for services I don’t use.”

I once signed up for a “health club” (gym) membership I never used after the first couple of visits. So I stopped paying the monthly fee. Whew, hell hath no fury like a health club scorned. My ears are still burning from the contract enforcement calls.

Comment by aqius
2008-12-02 06:46:01

palmy

what happened, you hated all the “Bally-hoo” that ensued?!

apologies to Laddysane for the daffynishion. he does it much better.

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Comment by DinOR
2008-12-02 08:55:43

palmetto,

That’s why we use the high school track and have a home gym. I hear ya’.

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Comment by Next Shoe To Drop
2008-12-02 09:16:12

Same here. Wife and I spent $30/mo at 24hr and killed it when we figured an elliptical and some dumbbells at home would suffice. Lost 15lbs and don’t have to ‘weight’ to use the equipment now.

 
Comment by DinOR
2008-12-02 11:07:52

Next Shoe to Drop,

Almost 40 lbs. here, and while I always had ’some’ success through the health club there’s nothing like working at your own pace. Not killing time until the next machine comes available.

Even walking/jogging past the same goal post a dozen times is more interesting than a treadmill? I’d like to get one of those home-use saunas too.

 
 
Comment by Carlos Cisco
2008-12-02 17:48:16

Pay your bills!

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Comment by smathis
2008-12-02 07:18:13

Is that the scary woman who home schools all the kids so they won’t go out into the big bad world and be exposed to any nasty, icky things like…oh, I don’t know…facts?

And the older kids all have to basically parent the younger ones because there are so damn many of them? But they’ll just keep having “as many children as the good Lord sends to us.”

Those people give me the heebie-jeebies, big-time.

Comment by exeter
2008-12-02 07:29:55

“Those people give me the heebie-jeebies, big-time.”

BINGO.

Comment by exeter
2008-12-02 09:44:41

I forgot to mention that these 21st century large families have an outlandish sense of entitlement. Big gargantuan houses, gargantuan SUV’s, and consume consume consume with no regard for anyone else… and by golly, they demand an exception to the rule at every level because they are supposed squeaky clean model of the religious wrong.

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Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 07:46:15

All of my adult life, i’ve been captive to the theory that every sperm is sacred, in our country. Much of this hooey came courtesy of the evangelical movement, which realized that if there was more of them than non-believers, they could call the shots, and did so the past 8 years politically.

I can see the advantage to having a bunch of offspring in 1100 A.D., as you’d put em’ to work asap and they’d care for you as you got older, and besides most people only lived to the ripe age of 35 before the grim reaper showed up…

There are almost 6 times as many of us on this planet, as there were in 1900.

“Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold…”

W.B. Yeats

Comment by darthrealtor
2008-12-02 09:06:43

I wonder at what date we reached the point where there are more people living on planet earth than have died in the entire history of the human race.

I’m guessing it was probably the mid 20th century.

Exponential growth does not bode well for our future.

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Comment by Skip
2008-12-02 09:15:59

Demand for chickens has grown exponentially in the past 100 years, yet there are more chickens alive right now than people and Pilgrim’s Pride just declared bankruptcy.

The results of exponential growth are not always easily predictable.

 
Comment by CrookCounty
2008-12-02 13:17:02

Chicken souls for the soup!

 
 
Comment by DennisN
2008-12-02 09:16:23

“My center is giving way, my right is in retreat; the situation is excellent. I shall attack.”

Marshall Ferdinand Foch

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Comment by Skip
2008-12-02 09:01:27

The Amish have been doing this for centuries. Of course, they stop at 6th grade.

I have the feeling they are not too worried about how the stock market is doing.

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-12-02 10:20:29

There’s a human population bubble that’s going to burst sooner or later.

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Comment by desertdweller
2008-12-02 20:10:11

Well, Mugabe in Zimbawe is doing his darndest to let cholera wipe out his citizenry. So, if there is another issue coming soon to balance the populations.. I am guessing that the African countries are thinking genocide is the way to go.

Sad situations.

So, other than that Mrs Lincoln, how did you like the play?

 
 
Comment by measton
2008-12-02 11:51:15

Oh I bet they are
They work construction
They sell high priced furniture and food
I’ll bet they are feeling some of the pain.

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Comment by Milkcrate
2008-12-02 22:09:30

They won’t go hungry, either.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2008-12-02 11:17:10

‘Those people give me the heebie-jeebies, big-time.’

Then stay out of rural Utarr, baybee. Or you’ll be heebie-jeebied like you wouldn’t fookin’ BELIEVE.

(Boldly announces Olygal, the proud graduate of just such a program. Well, one year of it. I was 9 or 10, I believe. Then we got so noisy we was a’disturbin’ my paw as he read the Book of Mormon and cleaned his guns, so we got to go back to Evil Public School! Hooray! We was all plenty thrilled. Not that our home-school curricula was not exciting and informative. Lessee, I once read an article on cloud formations in an ancient Encyclopedia Brittanica. That was it for that reading nonsense for the year. Girls don’t need to read good anyhow.
Oh, and we learned how to poach deer and various other meat stuffs. Good times. Oh, wait. No, they weren’t. )

Comment by Olympiagal
2008-12-02 11:22:34

And the sad part is, my darling HBB pals—I’m not even joking. I had a fairly bizarre childhood. Sigh.
Ah, well, whatcher gonna do?
Besides go back for a visit and kill your parents, I mean. Although I couldn’t find my dad to kill him even if I wanted to. He’s out in the desert, still playing with his guns, still waiting for Armageddon.

Ah, I remember going back to school! They…they…had school lunches! And you could eat them!

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Comment by tresho
2008-12-02 11:26:52

Although I couldn’t find my dad to kill him even if I wanted to. He’s out in the desert, still playing with his guns, still waiting for Armageddon. There’s a best-selling book or a movie in you, probably more than one. Go for it.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-12-02 11:47:08

:)
I’m just waiting for my dad to make it big on a spectacular CNN special sort of news event. Heckfire, I’m fairly surprised it hasn’t happened already. He had a lot of energy and good planning skills. You know, for an utter lunatic, I mean.

Possibly he got bit by a rattlesnake or else one of his comrades got annoyed and did the job or he just fell in an old mine shaft somewhere.
But I’m prepared. If he ever does wander and/or get hauled out of the wilderness by the ATF and emerge into fame, I’ll be right there with my memoirs and baby photos.

 
Comment by James
2008-12-02 14:12:06

Probably died for lack of a transfusion or something like that.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-12-02 16:12:34

It’s likely. If he DID get snakebit he’d probably try to pray himself well. Or, like I said, an even more rapid demise via a swift infusion of little metal projectile thingies.
I would be just fine with either scenario, even though such an event would end my hopes for selling the movie rights.

 
Comment by Muggy
2008-12-02 17:34:27

“There’s a best-selling book or a movie in you, probably more than one. Go for it.”

I agree, but OlyGal, you’ll have to avoid The Glass Castle territory.

Also, someone really needs to write bubble novel. The time may be passing, but one could still pull it off.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by mrktMaven
2008-12-02 06:16:59

We’ve been in recession 12 months already. Winston had a busy year. Heck, we’re probably already on the road to recovery, no?

 
Comment by Blano
2008-12-02 06:18:47

Michigan guvmint hard at work now trying to slow down foreclosures. Moratoriums as long as 2 years; let regulators decide on granting a payment extensions; allow people to pay “rent” until they get back on their feet.

Yes we can!!!

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081202/BIZ/812020350

 
Comment by wmbz
2008-12-02 06:21:24

How the hell are some of these lousy home builders still in business?

AP
Beazer Homes 4Q loss balloons as revenue plunges
Tuesday December 2, 7:10 am ET
Beazer Homes 4th-quarter loss triples on hefty tax provision, drop off in revenue

ATLANTA (AP) — Struggling homebuilder Beazer Homes USA Inc. said Tuesday its fiscal fourth-quarter losses more than tripled as revenue plunged and its income tax provision ballooned.

Losses for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totaled $473.9 million, or $12.29 per share, compared with year-ago losses of $155.2 million, or $4.03 per share. Losses from continuing operations totaled $12.32 per share in the latest period.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081202/earns_beazer_homes.html

 
Comment by aqius
2008-12-02 06:41:13

arnold, nor any other governor, will ever effectively lead this state.

it’s just too damn big, with too damn many bickering special interests, including the egotistical politicians, for anyone to EVER compromise for the general good.

prison guards, teachers, fireman, guv workers, and others highly paid & motivated to keep the status quo, have ruined this once great state. and dont forget the perpetual victims funds, ie “special needs” this, special needs that, homeless, migrants, etc.

in this state you either feed at the pig trough thru unions or wait for the generous & sloppy leftovers via public assistance. the middle class funds it all. but has no benefit. a pure class A clusterfuk !!

this state just needs to be split into northern & southern cal.

seriously.

(up here in Nor Cal its pretty much an entirely different mindset than from the OC people down south. we actually despise ‘em, truth be told. and I know they hate us “water-hoggin’, tree huggers” likewise)!

I have no problem with that.

Comment by desertdweller
2008-12-02 20:34:35

It drives me buggy when unions and pay for middle america is attacked nonstop for the situations we are all in. It ain’t the unions fault. Since every dang thing has been deregulated, the only ones who are responsible for wreaking havoc on our state or the state of our union nationally and now worldwide is because of wallstreet and thugs,lobbyists who take take take.
Now tell me this, if unions were to take a minimum of 50% haircut$, WHO would be supporting this stupid false economy anyway? hmmm? No one making 21K pr yr would be able to afford cars,houses,big screen tvs, plane trips/vacations,clothes, dining out etc.
So do not go blaming unions when the problem starts at gov and goes right through wallstreet and the scum who want theirs but dont’ want anyone to have an equal share.

Having already gotten no pay raise since 1983, then getting a 35% negative haircut 5 yrs back, dont’ tell me my industries problems are because of MY pay level. Sheesh.
And gosh omighty, what about the auto ceos who paid themselves mightily WITH jets etc?
What about the HUGE discrepancy amongst all CEO’s pay and the rest of the company they choose to ruin?

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 06:45:36

On the twelfth day of Excess,
My credit card gave to me
Twelve cylinders humming,
Eleven copper-piped rooms,
Ten loans a-leaping,
Nine ladies lapdancing,
Eight houses a-HELOCING,
Seven black swans a-swimming,
Six foreclosures delaying,
Five cellphone ringtones,
Four calling cellphones,
Three French hemmed suits,
Two totaled SUV’s
And greenbacks in a money tree!

Comment by palmetto
2008-12-02 06:50:00

And here I am hoping for a reprise of the Chevrolet ditty. Come on, laddie, how did that go?

Watch your Chevrolet
Stock decay in your 401K
In the USA

Wuz that it?

Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 06:55:40

See your Chevrolet stock decay in a 401k,
The way to save retirement pay in the USA.

Comment by palmetto
2008-12-02 06:58:25

Ooops, thanks, you beat me to another correction.

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Comment by palmetto
2008-12-02 06:57:00

Oops, no, it was:

SEE your Chevrolet stock decay
In your 401K
In the USA

Better?

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-12-02 07:06:34

Thanks for getting me into the spirit of Christmas giving :-)

Comment by palmetto
2008-12-02 07:12:51

Well, heck, Professor, ya mean Pelosi’s Lady Bountiful routine didn’t put you in the mood before this?

Back in the day, European courts used to have court jesters. We could use some of those now, for a little comic relief. Although I would say Barney Frank doesn’t really cut it in that position.

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-12-02 07:17:23

Um, Barney Frank? Position? I better not go there.

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Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 07:25:20

Be careful Bill…

Every gay man secretly wants you, you know.

 
Comment by exeter
2008-12-02 07:31:38

Lock your doors BilaBong. Dem dar gay hobgoblins are gunna getchya while yer sleepin’!

 
Comment by SpacecoastFLrenter
2008-12-02 08:30:54

most gay men want almost any man.
50% of gay men have had over 1000 sex partners.

scary but true.

No I am not gay. just a Doc.

 
Comment by DinOR
2008-12-02 09:00:01

Doc,

And what’s the avg. for the hetero crowd, 4 to 5 partners in a lifetime? Including ex-wives and that really embarrassing night in TJ?

 
Comment by Skip
2008-12-02 09:23:39

More like 20+ for the US.

You’d better get bizzy DinOR!

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-12-02 09:41:59

“50% of gay men have had over 1000 sex partners.”

That sounds unbelievable.

 
Comment by SawItComing
2008-12-02 10:36:34

Contrary to popular belief, gays are not born gay, they get sucked into the lifestyle. :)

 
Comment by DinOR
2008-12-02 11:16:37

Skip,

….it’s a little late in life for that, but I’ll keep it in mind. No seriously I’d read an article some time back and they said the avg. person probably had a HS sweetheart ( may or may not have gotten lucky? ) a GF in college, an engagement, wife/2nd wife and maybe a mistress in their lifetime.

Kind of silly when you consider that most of the products marketed to us are through some form of sex-appeal?

 
Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2008-12-02 13:18:03

Quick google totally disproves the 1,000 partner figure. Probably something made up by a religious organization.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-12-02 14:22:35

“And what’s the avg. for the hetero crowd, 4 to 5 partners in a lifetime? Including ex-wives and that really embarrassing night in TJ?”

Do close encounters with joshua trees add to the total?

 
Comment by Carlos Cisco
2008-12-02 18:01:34

In the early mid 1980’s, wife worked at a hospital where newly diagnosed aids patients (all homosexual males) were kept in double isolation; patients had an average of 1400 “contacts” in the two years prior to diagnosis.

 
Comment by exeter
2008-12-03 05:06:30

Of course they did.

 
 
 
 
Comment by black swan
2008-12-02 08:14:28

Last November, someone posted a HBB version of The Night Before Christmas. Does anyone recall this?

Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 11:41:23

Twas the night before foreclosure, when all through the house
Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse.
The stalking was done by the sheriff with care,
In hopes that an N.O.D. soon would be there.

The FB’s were nestled all snug in their beds,
While visions of departure danced in their heads.
And mamma in her ‘kerchief, and I in my cap,
Had just settled our brains for a long winter’s nap.

When out on the lawn there arose such a clatter,
I sprang from the bed to see what was the matter.
Away to the window I flew like a flash,
Tore open the shutters and threw up the sash.

The moon on the breast of the new-fallen snow
Gave the lustre of mid-day to objects below.
When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,
But a squad car, and the sheriff-the end is near.

Comment by black swan
2008-12-02 14:32:24

Thanks alad. I’d love to hear the conclusion of this tale.

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Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 17:28:08

Ran out of steam as it got too xmessy, that’s it… ha

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2008-12-02 07:03:03

AP
TransUnion: 3Q mortgage delinquencies shoot higher
Tuesday December 2, 6:59 am ET
Mortgage delinquencies shoot up to nearly 4 percent in 3Q, nearly double historical average

NEW YORK (AP) — The percentage of people who are two months behind on their mortgages shot up in the third quarter from the same period last year, according to credit reporting agency TransUnion LLC.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081202/mortgage_delinquencies_third_quarter.html

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-12-02 07:11:43

No wonder we still cannot afford to buy a house, despite the one-year-old recession. Home owners are still living in fantasy land with respect to the values of their faux chateaus.

DECEMBER 1, 2008, 9:55 P.M. ET
Cover Story
The Future for Home Prices
Americans still see real estate as their best shot at wealth. It may be wishful thinking.
By JAMES R. HAGERTY

Over the past few years, Americans have had a brutal lesson in the risks of real estate. House prices have crashed more than 35% in some parts of the country, millions of people are losing their homes to foreclosure, and banks are failing.

The takeaway? Many Americans still see real estate as their best shot at wealth. In survey after survey, people expect prices to bounce back — in some cases, as soon as six months from now.

Those hoping for a quick rebound are likely to be disappointed. Economists and other pros generally say home prices won’t bottom out before the second half of 2009, and some don’t see a bottom until 2011 or 2012. Even when they stop falling, prices may scrape along the bottom of the rut for years.

For all of those forecasts, many Americans are undaunted. Consider three surveys, all from October.

In a poll of 2,000 adults, real-estate-data provider Zillow.com found that 61% believed the value of their home would either remain level or rise over the next six months. Another survey of more than 1,000 homeowners, sponsored by real-estate-services firm Realogy Corp., found that 91% thought that owning a home was the best long-term investment they could make. And an online survey of 5,000 people commissioned by Citigroup found that just 32% believed it was a good time to invest in stocks — but 51% said it was a good time to buy a home.

Real Time Economics

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index showed accelerating price declines in September. See a sortable chart of home prices, by metro area.

“I just believe in real estate,” says Jason Schram, a lawyer in Chicago who has bought two rental properties this year at what he considers fire-sale prices. “I’ve seen over and over people I know build wealth through rental real estate, and that’s the path I intend taking, even though it’s a bit bumpy at the moment.”

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-12-02 09:40:51

“…32% believed it was a good time to invest in stocks — but 51% said it was a good time to buy a home…”

Contrarian analysis would suggest it is a better time to invest in stocks than housing at the moment. My hunch is that stock market sentiment will bottom out long before housing market sentiment does — just like last time there was a real estate bust in the early 1990s.

Comment by takingbets
2008-12-02 10:11:17

“but 51% said it was a good time to buy a home. ”

I bet these people are mostly FB’s trying to unload their homes onto the next group of delusional knife catchers.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2008-12-02 12:26:42

“Contrarian analysis would suggest it is a better time to invest in stocks than housing at the moment. ”

Better, maybe, but still a _bad_ time to invest in either one…

My contrarian analysis can only gather from those stats that most people are stupid.

 
 
Comment by James
2008-12-02 09:57:14

Like I keep saying PB. Its early.

 
Comment by CrookCounty
2008-12-02 13:01:43

Buying a house is to investing as:

A.) buying food for the refrigerator and freezer is to saving.

B.) turning off the lights is to tax evasion

C.) mowing the lawn is to portfolio management

D.) All of the above

E.) None of the above

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-12-02 14:20:37

F.) Flushing the toilet is to throwing money down the toilet

 
 
 
Comment by Blano
2008-12-02 07:20:49

Anybody catch the Colbert Report last night and his interview talking about vetting for Obama with the guy who did some vetting for, I think, Bill Clinton (or maybe HC)?? Too funny, especially at the end.

 
Comment by exeter
2008-12-02 07:45:54

NY realTurds numbers for Oct2008 released this morning. Double digit declines in sales across the board, year over year, Oct. Double digit price declines in 15 counties, year over year, Oct. The further from NYC, the uglier it is for realTurds. Schweet!!!!!

http://www.nysar.com/media.asp

Comment by exeter
2008-12-02 09:38:38

Oopsy… old data. I nary forgot we’re in December. NY’s Nov numbers should be out today or tomorrow.

 
 
Comment by packman
2008-12-02 07:49:13

Beazer earnings out - really bad. Looks like bankruptcy is right around the corner for them, though they don’t seem to want to admit it.

 
Comment by palmetto
2008-12-02 08:00:36

I’ve long wondered why we don’t hear about more HB BKs. Totally mystifying. And if the banks are still lending to these assclowns, they deserve to go bust instead of being bailed out.

Comment by Jimmy B
2008-12-02 09:29:28

I think the tax refunds on the two year carrybacks are helping them stay afloat for the short term. However, the tax money won’t last long with the off balance sheet, JV debacles that many of them hide.

 
 
Comment by smathis
2008-12-02 08:01:36

Yet their billboards are still ubiquitous.

“When is the best time to buy a Beazer home? NOW!”

Yeah…sure.

Comment by palmetto
2008-12-02 08:16:37

“When is the best time to buy a Beazer home?”

Crickets.

 
 
 
Comment by The Housing Wizard
2008-12-02 07:52:58

As far as the Stock Market goes ,everyone should of known is was toast
when the Cheerleaders 2 years ago could only talk about emerging markets and they used big words about a “de-leveraging” that was going on ,but they didn’t have transparency to know where .

The next clue was when the Feds and Treasury had to bail out the
Lenders ,banks, and Investment houses . Today the 3 big Domestic Auto Companies go a begging for money ,after a 10 year run with debt people
buying like drunken sailors .Everything was a bubble ,including the stock market because people used fake house prices and easy credit to buy things .Everything but income went up in the last 10 years for most
people in America ,but nobody noticed or asked how people were paying for things. How could everyone in the World be so retarded .Buy a house and let your house work for you so you can have a life style like the rich and famous . History books will only be able to say that a World Mania took
place that lead people to believe that they had money they didn’t have ,that caused the whole house of cards to tumble .

Comment by takingbets
2008-12-02 15:06:22

“Everything but income went up in the last 10 years for most people in America, but nobody noticed or asked how people were paying for things.”

When I starting seeing the field workers around here driving new cars to work instead of car pooling in vans, thats when I noticed. It took me quit a while to figure out how they were getting the money. It was just to unbelievable to me that Bankers would extend that much credit to minimum wage workers. Know I along with everyone else knows they were selling these loans overseas. I honestly understand your frustration with these aholes trying to plug holes with crooked pinkies!

 
 
Comment by AK-LA
2008-12-02 07:56:22

Ben asked for holiday observations, and here’s mine, late.

I was in Ben’s ‘hood for the holidays, and things are proceeding as expected. The second-home community near Flag I was visiting was half unsold. Sedona is withering; the high end shops in town were abandoned or emptying. On Black Friday, wonderful used bookstores in Flagstaff were not busy, and people were mostly reading, not buying. Jerome was crowded, but almost no one carried shopping bags. A swanky art gallery worker chased me down and offered me anything at 25% off. (These places usually chase me out of the store for looking too poor.)

One of the strangest things I noticed this weekend - did anyone else see this? - was the huge number of out-of-state cars crammed with stuff moving to California. Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, Virginia, Alberta, Utah, and many more, all thundering towards the coast. I even saw them around LA the day before we hit I-40. I drive the 40 a few times a year, and I’ve never seen anything like it.

Comment by In Montana
2008-12-02 10:03:03

Hmm. Last recession that hit Montana bad, in the 80s, saw people moving to Cali for work. Kinda miss those days, but I can’t belive it’s already happening again.

Comment by Seattle Renter
2008-12-02 15:06:45

I hear theys work out californee way….

 
 
Comment by takingbets
2008-12-02 10:21:03

“was the huge number of out-of-state cars”

I’ve been seeing this here in Bakersfield for a few months now. I wish someone would post huge signs on the city limits “No Workers Needed, Keep Driving to the Next Town”. This is the truth, the classifieds get smaller each week.

Comment by desertdweller
2008-12-02 20:47:10

I see lots of outa state cars in the desert this time of year. But they are mostly senior citizens, wealthy seniors/retirees who winter here.

Sat next to a 94 yr old woman who winters here from Ohio for 34 yrs.

Hope I look and am that darn sharp when those yrs get here.

 
 
Comment by Jean S
2008-12-02 10:28:19

huh….my niece drove back up here (Portland) from LA on Sunday/Monday–she said the traffic heading out of LA on Sunday was insane, all the way up into the central valley.

 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-12-02 11:57:51

Ahh, this is no fun, hopping into boxcars - now there’s some romance to that. Ya, can’t have a depression driving around in a Suburban.

 
Comment by Hrundi V. Bakshi
2008-12-02 15:00:55

Bookman’s never looks busy, and it always seems like everyone is just reading, not buying. The place has still been there for way longer than most Flag businesses.

 
 
Comment by exeter
2008-12-02 08:01:54

“Some people look at subprime lending and see evil. I look at subprime lending and I see the American dream in action. My mother lived it as a result of a finance company making a mortgage loan that a bank would not make.”

-former United States senator Philbert Gramm(r)

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 08:07:19

ANATOMY OF A MELTDOWN

Ben Bernanke and the financial crisis.

“At Princeton, where Bernanke taught economics for many years, he was known for his retiring manner and his statistics-laden research on the Great Depression.”

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/12/01/081201fa_fact_cassidy
=======================

Poor Ben B., soon to be just another statistic of the Great Depression, version 2.009

Comment by hd74man
2008-12-02 10:20:36

RE: Poor Ben B., soon to be just another statistic of the Great Depression, version 2.009

Beantown Glob and associate TV media types are actually giving people the impression that this debacle will all be over in the 2nd quarter of ‘09, based on the durations of the ‘73/’74- ‘80/’81 busts.

Not a fookin’ chance.

‘29 crash ran for 43 months which much more probable.

 
Comment by CrookCounty
2008-12-02 12:30:53

“Bernanke, working closely with Henry (Hank) Paulson, the Treasury Secretary, a voluble former investment banker, was determined to keep the financial sector operating long enough so that it could repair itself—a policy that he and his Fed colleagues referred to as the “finger-in-the-dike” strategy.”

What as it Tony Montana said about that?

…the drug-related violence that’s plagued South Florida…It seems at times all you can do is put your finger in the dike and pray.

“Put your fingers in a dike? The only place you can get your fingers
is in some dyke.”

–The Federal Reserve is a monopoly Money pusher. Guess they forgot to spray those dollar bills with more cocaine, and the fiat money high buzz is wearing off.

Comment by llcarlos
2008-12-02 18:38:23

I don’t remember that line. Just this one, “This town is like a great big chicken just waiting to get plucked”.

 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 08:11:18

Derivatable: Financial Hot-Air Balloon

 
Comment by jjb4430
2008-12-02 08:13:14

Well, well, well… The credit crunch finally hits my world, at least tangentially.

So… The deadbeat brother-in-law calls up and asks for my wife who was at work. I was immediately suspicious since he has not even once contacted us since we moved away. Not even a phone call or e-mail when he found out my wife/his sister was pregnant.

I fully prepped my wife to expect the sob story for some cash. Turns out he wants us/her to cosign for a $35k consolidation loan… keep in mind he makes 12.50 per hour at his 30 hour week job. We’d be on the hook for all of it, no doubt.

My wife is from SE Asia, so I was not sure how much of a sense of family duty she would have to help her down and out brother. I was not sure if she could truly shut him down.

She was actually very good, she was compassionate and gave him some advice about going to consumer credit counseling services. She gave some pointers on cutting down some bills of his bills. When push came to shove she declined to enable his hyper-consumerism. She did offer to pay the CCCS fees, or for a bankruptcy lawyer, I can live with that.

We are doing our part in seeing that consumer credit defaults are the next shoe to drop! :)

Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2008-12-02 23:01:48

Good for her. Always tough to say no to a loved one (although some are easier than others.) But in the long run not being bailed out will be better for him. Now if we could only get her elected to Congress to vote no on some other bailouts. :D

 
 
Comment by taxmeupthebooty
2008-12-02 08:23:11

are there any countries not printing money ?

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 08:25:49

We are obviously going to emerge from this disaster with quite a disdain for the powers that be financially.

They were our high priests of high finance, and they turned out to be False American Idols, in the end.

I expect most of them to go the way of Angelo, who seems to have disappeared…

The trust is gone though. It could be decades before we’ll fall prey to their sort again.

Comment by palmetto
2008-12-02 08:32:31

From your lips to God’s ears, laddie. I have developed the utmost contempt not only for the financial class, but for the political class. Seething, spit on the floor contempt.

Geithner for Treasury Secretary. Feh. Puh. Lungie.

Comment by GSfixer
2008-12-02 09:59:14

The old farmers around here have a unique way of blowing their noses.

Tilt head back slightly, hold one nostril closed with finger, close mouth, exhale HARD out of open nostril…..no hankerchief/kleenex needed. You can almost aim it.

“I blow my nose in your general direction…..”

Comment by takingbets
2008-12-02 11:02:06

GSfixer,

Here in Cali thats called an “Okie-Blow” my little 7yo niece calls it an “Okie-Blowed” I LMAO every time she says it!!!

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Comment by hunkydory
2008-12-02 11:21:46

“seething, spit on the floor contempt”.

Well put, palmy. +1

Comment by hunkydory
2008-12-02 11:23:23

around my way the ‘okie-blow’ is alternately called a snot rocket, or an italian hanky. :-D

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Comment by palmetto
2008-12-02 12:40:54

hunky, ya just made my day, with those two “bon mots” of yours. Good on ya, cobber!

 
 
 
 
Comment by Asparagus
2008-12-02 08:51:55

I’m worried about where all the quants are going to end up. What industry will they go to and will it help or hurt that/those industries?

In my mind they will add value to other industries until management let’s them go too far, like they did in finance.

Or, since they’ve all gotten a taste for money and instead of becoming engineers and adding value to society, they will instead continually look for minute arbitrage opportunities in every market and become sophisticated, quantitative day-traders (wearing their bathrobe and slippers).

Comment by DinOR
2008-12-02 09:04:00

Asparagus,

They’re already training from within their own industry. I have a friend that’s going through his employer’s ( St. Jude Medical ) internal “training institute”.

Good luck fellas.

 
Comment by polly
2008-12-02 09:13:17

My Dad reminded me over Thanksgiving that in the 70’s solid state physics Phd’s were driving cabs (and grateful for the job) in Boston.

 
 
 
Comment by peter a
2008-12-02 08:29:19

This is a green energy home give me a break.
http://inlandempire.craigslist.org/reb/902838987.html
And they are asking about $780000 more than prebubble.

 
Comment by cactus
2008-12-02 08:29:40

Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) — Thirty-year Treasury bonds are returning the most since 1995 as investors bet the Federal Reserve will buy the securities to help bring down long-term borrowing costs.

The so-called long bond has returned 27.8 percent this year, including a 15.6 percent gain in November, Merrill Lynch & Co. index data show. The debt is poised for the best annual performance since rallying 34 percent 13 years ago.

Jas jain +1

Comment by packman
2008-12-02 09:13:24

OK - not sure I understand.

30-year treasuries are at about 4.5% right now. How could they be performing according to the numbers stated above?

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-12-02 10:13:08

Yields and prices are inversely related.

Comment by packman
2008-12-02 10:56:12

Well yeah, I know that.
(see follow up below)

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Comment by cactus
2008-12-02 10:19:57

the price of the Treasury bond moves inverse to the yield and yields are thought to be going down to 0% with all this talk of QE quanitative easing from Bernake. The FED is determined to re-inflate. So treasuries are bid way up and the total return meaning if you sell them on the open market is 27.8%. I haven’t checked that though. But bond funds are way up, treasury bond funds. corporate bonds are down.

I watch TBT as I expect this is a dollar bubble forming. TBT is a double reverse 20 year treasury ETF. I don’t know when this fear will end though ? So I watch.

for what its worth I think the stock market is making a bottom here and when wall street figures that out they will sell treasuries to buy stocks.

Comment by packman
2008-12-02 11:03:51

So I guess then there’s a significant amount of margin involved? How exactly does this work logistically? I’ve bought treasuries through treasurydirect.com, though I’m guessing a totally different mechanism is involved. I’ve never tried to sell treasury bonds.

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Comment by cactus
2008-12-02 12:28:29

I posted a table from Vanguard fund returns and I don’t see the 27% + return on long treasuries I see 15% YTD. But they are mutual funds so they must have many long bonds mixed in and bought at different times.

I don’t why or where the 27% comes from ? I hope my chart shows up and is legible ?

looking at the returns from the chart what i see is complete fear of anything but treasuries and no Inflation expectations at all. Do I believe this ? How long will it last? is it really dependant on home prices ? Is it global?
And is the FED really monetizing debt meaning buying treasuries not bothering to auction them but just making them and then buying them at great low interest rates?

buying them with ? can I buy a new house using a pen and piece of fancy to give myself a great loan? OK I know the answer to that one.

 
 
Comment by hoz
2008-12-02 11:33:23

The bond market is in a bubble, but as the US Treasury continues to buy 10 yr and 30 yr bonds, it is no longer predictable.

It is now next to impossible to short US Treasuries. (If I could short US Treasuries, I would with both hands on my forehead - palms out.) There are many hedgeable options available at risk reward ratios greater than 40:1; Sharpe ratios over 1.60 . Thus the Repo failures. (You loan me the Treasury to short and instead of me delivering you the treasury down the road, I just give you the interest and payments = repo failure = not closing out a great position)

Firms like PIMCO, that are long bonds and taking advantage of these discrepancies, will look like friggin geniuses in 6 months.

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Comment by cactus
2008-12-02 12:11:00

some bond fund returns YTD I don’t see the 20+ return on long treasuries ?

GNMA VFIIX Bond - Taxable 5.50%

High-Yield Corporate VWEHX Bond - Taxable –27.59%

Intermediate-Term Investment-Grade VFICX Bond - Taxable –9.84%

Intermediate-Term Treasury VFITX Bond - Taxable 10.52%

Inflation-Protected Securities VIPSX Bond - Taxable –6.16%

Long-Term Treasury VUSTX Bond - Taxable 15.18%

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Comment by packman
2008-12-02 13:59:10

Those aren’t pure treasury bonds though. E.g. VUSTX is only 80% treasuries. Not sure what the other 20% is.

I’m seeing 3.2% on pure 30-year treasury:

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html

What am I missing? How is a fund that’s supposed to be a treasury fund able to achieve such high gains, when the underlying treasuries are not even close? Is it margining somehow?

 
Comment by hoz
2008-12-02 15:49:37

A good bond fund rolls (sells and buys new) its positions.

if you buy a bond that yields 4% and the yield drops to 3.5%, the bond has gone from 100 to 102. So sell the bond and buy another bond at 100 yielding 3.5% YOU HAVE JUST LOCKED IN 2% PROFIT.

Few traders or firms hold long bonds for more than a few hours. That is for the investors. The recent 3.75% 10 yr bond sold at 100K is now trading over 108K. Most investors don’t know how to sell, that is why funds exist. Investors buy for the yield, funds buy for the profit.

 
Comment by packman
2008-12-02 16:45:30

I still don’t get it - I think. Once you buy a bond - isn’t the yield locked in at the rate you buy it for?

if you buy a bond that yields 4% and the yield drops to 3.5%, the bond has gone from 100 to 102.

Or when you say “the yield drops to…” are you referring to new 30-year bonds? Thus rather than paying 102 to buy a new 30-year bond from the treasury, someone can pay 102 to you to buy the bond. Right?

If so - then maybe I do get it now.

 
Comment by packman
2008-12-02 17:38:21

In other words - the yield on the bonds is actually irrelevant to the performance of the fund - the fund is based on the change of the yields over time. Right?

 
Comment by cactus
2008-12-02 20:26:05

“the fund is based on the change of the yields over time. Right?”

yes for capital gains and NAV.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by SpacecoastFLrenter
2008-12-02 08:32:33

So has the us economy become 1990s Japan.

is deflation here to stay?

evidence please.

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-12-02 10:14:25

Unless you can come of a plausible scenario by which households can borrow more money without going through bankruptcy first, and service both the current debt and future debt, I foresee a Japan in the US’s future.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 10:22:56

(Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.)

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-12-02 11:42:04

As usual, you’ve mouthed a nonsensical non sequitir without adding any content to the discussion.

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Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 12:40:07

Standard boilerplate (PIMCO’s), Pussy.

Just looking out for your predictions…

 
Comment by michael
2008-12-02 12:53:08

i sometimes tie my shoes too tight.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-12-02 14:16:29

I don’t tie my shoes right.

 
 
 
Comment by packman
2008-12-02 12:21:47

FWIW - mortgage interest rates are actually coming down somewhat right now, presumably in part due to the money being pumped into the system via the bailout. So this is one method.

It’s premature to say that this will have any significant impact - but it might. I for one am thinking of possibly refi-ing if rates come down enough - to the low 5’s or so. Though I doubt I’ll take out any equity, since I’m not a debt kind of person.

 
 
Comment by hoz
2008-12-02 12:04:16

“…It is just as important that inflation expectations remain well anchored in the face of falling energy prices. Significant declines in gasoline and fuel oil prices, for instance, have recently led to declines in the consumer price index. This has prompted some commentators to suggest that the U.S. is facing a threat of sustained deflation, as we did in the Great Depression or as Japan faced for a decade. I do not believe this is a serious threat. Although the recent dramatic declines in energy prices have led to declines in the monthly headline CPI, it still increased 3.7 percent over the last 12 months while core CPI increased 2.3 percent. So we are not close to a sustained deflation. The recent declines are simply the mirror image of the increases we saw earlier in the year. As long as inflation expectations remain well anchored, these declines in energy prices are unlikely to lead to sustained deflation any more than their previous increases were likely to lead to sustained inflation…”
Mr Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Dec 2, 2008

As Mr. Plosser says, “So we are not close to a sustained deflation.”

In sum, the subject is boring. I have made my investments and will change them if there is ever evidence of deflation.

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2008-12-02 08:34:28

Lets track him….will his car breakdown and nobody close by will know how to fix it????

=============================================
DETROIT (AP) — A General Motors spokesman says Chief Executive Rick Wagoner will travel to Washington, D.C., later this week by car instead of flying a commercial airline or corporate jet.

Spokesman Tony Cervone says Wagoner will drive in a Chevrolet Malibu hybrid sedan when he makes the 520-mile trek from Detroit to Capitol Hill.

Comment by In Colorado
2008-12-02 12:32:26

This got me thinking about how rare it is today to see a late model car broken down on the road side. I recall in the late 60’s, 70’s and even the 80’s it was not an uncommon thing to see.

I’m sure that his Malibu hybrid will get to DC just fine.

 
 
Comment by genepha
2008-12-02 08:34:30

Repost from yesterday since I didn’t get any responses.
Help please!
Hi all!
A bit off topic but since we r talking about computers…. does anyone know how to get rid of that freakin’ about:blank virux - I’m using Windows XP. I can’t stomach spending $199 to have geek squad come out and tell me I’ve got a virus - duh! but everything I’ve tried hasn’t worked.
Any advice?! Thanks!

Comment by jeff saturday
2008-12-02 08:41:55

I can tell you how to restore a Dell computer back to brand new , but you lose everything .

 
Comment by Northeastener
2008-12-02 09:02:30

Have you tried installing and running “Malwarebytes’ Anti-Malware”?

 
Comment by eastcoaster
2008-12-02 09:03:21

IT people won’t want to hear me give you this advice, but I say do a system restore to a point in time that you know was virus-free.

 
Comment by polly
2008-12-02 09:18:02

How do you know you have this virus? I’m just curious, but except for sudden extreme changes in computer behaviour, I’m not really sure how they manifest.

Comment by genepha
2008-12-02 13:09:37

Hi!
Thanks everyone for their advice. Will try anything and everything I can. When I am on Ebay I can see the about:blank virus thingee running in the background. It makes everything super slooow. I ran Norton and housecall which were pretty much useless :(. Thanks so much for the help - keep it coming!
PS - It’s an HP running windows XP.
Jenn

 
 
Comment by Skip
2008-12-02 09:32:46

Go to Microsoft dot Com and search for “Malicious Software Removal Tool”. It is free.

I would go also download and run a firewall ( there are are free ones like zonealarm dot com) to help keep the nasties out.

Lastly, buy a cheap router and connect it between your dsl/cable/etc and your computer.

 
Comment by peter a
2008-12-02 10:01:23

AVG works also nod32.

 
 
Comment by ann gogh
2008-12-02 08:38:21

Hush! The prince is talking….
He said he will save us!

 
Comment by Asparagus
2008-12-02 08:58:18

Well, this makes up for it. How many $billions do want.
The sacrifices this guy makes. Incredible.

GM says CEO will drive to Washington
Tuesday December 2, 10:30 am ET
GM grounds jet for Washington trip, says CEO will drive company car to appear before Congress

DETROIT (AP) — This time, GM Chief Rick Wagoner will drive a company car to Washington instead of flying by corporate jet as he seeks a government bailout, a spokesman says.

Wagoner will drive in a Chevrolet Malibu hybrid sedan when he makes the 520-mile trek from Detroit to Capitol Hill, General Motors Corp. spokesman Tony Cervone said Tuesday.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081202/autos_ceo_travel.html

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 09:03:44

Producers 1968: Sell 25,000% of a play, hoping it’s a failure. Lose it all when it’s a surprise hit.

Producers 2008: Sell 25,000% of a play, lose it all when it turns to $hit.

 
Comment by reuven
2008-12-02 09:18:38

NPR ran a story today on how the business at Long Beach/LA ports are down, and the associated lack of work for truckers, warehouses, and everyone down the chain.

Few point out that the reason people aren’t buying imported cr*p anymore is that there’s no more Free House ATM Money available. (And Free it was! Nobody’s going to pay it back, and these folks get to be Victims!)

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-12-02 09:38:52

The story mentioned that employment of part time port workers has gone from 4-5 shifts per week (16-20 per month) to 1-2 shifts per month — a drop off of about 90 pct which conspicuously resembles the percentage decline in the Baltic dry index this year.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2008-12-02 10:14:52

There was an article about how auto importers (Asian & European) are scrambling to find lots to keep the excess inventory that keeps arriving but the dealers won’t accept for delivery. Apparently Mercedes has cars that have been in storage for over 6 months.

Comment by Kim
2008-12-02 10:37:53

Well I guess the REIC was correct… we are running out of land!

j/k

 
 
Comment by sf jack
2008-12-02 10:45:05

“We’re different!”

We are not…

Do there exist any remaining fools in the Alt-A Bay Area ready to state that this recession is not having an impact on behavior or prices (for almost anything) in their neighborhood?

*****

Porsche U.S. November sales drop 48.2%

By Wallace Witkowski
Last update: 12:12 p.m. EST Dec. 2, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Porsche (DE:PAH003:porsche
DE:PAH003 46.15, -1.30, -2.7%) said Tuesday that November U.S. sales fell 48.2% to 1,378 vehicles from 2,662 vehicles a year ago. U.S. November Boxster and Cayman sales fell to 153 vehicles from 580 last year, and Cayenne sales fell to 700 vehicles from 1,232 last year.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Porsche-US-November-sales-drop/story.aspx?guid=%7B1138CE90%2DC6F4%2D43CC%2DB43D%2D81BF3109250B%7D

 
 
Comment by takingbets
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-12-02 10:03:21

Here is a quote from a man after my own heart.

Other experts are not so sure. “I wouldn’t bail out people who made stupid mistakes,” says Kent Smetters, professor of insurance and risk management at Wharton, arguing that borrowers and lenders should suffer the consequences of risks gone bad. Trying to mitigate the consequences won’t stop the financial train wreck, just shift it to slow motion, he argues. “The alternative is to say we’re going to let the train wreck happen. What that does is to allow us to clear the tracks sooner.”

Comment by sf jack
2008-12-02 10:48:56

Exactly, PB.

Since it took, what, 15 years to clear the tracks in Japan - what will it take the US?

Or the global economy, for that matter?

And in Japan, I suppose it’s debatable as to whether the tracks have ever cleared.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-12-02 10:59:27

That’s what I was thinking — the tracks are still not cleared in Japan, yet we seem to be gravitating towards the path they chose.

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Comment by measton
2008-12-02 12:36:29

If you don’t want to be blamed for this disaster the Japan route is the most palatable. Thus we will choose the Japan route.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 09:42:50

California is at a crossroads…

We can either use our limited water supplies to grow food or use for own personal needs, but not both.

Fruit & Vegies tend to not put up much of a fight, so the water will end up going to people, in lieu of crops.

The most important investment you can make today, is a year’s worth of food…
=================================================

Californians need to worry about food security

At a time when people are deeply concerned about our dependence on imported oil, we should also be concerned about increasing our state’s dependence on imported food. In fact, our ability to feed our state could be seriously threatened by problems such as a long-term drought, the state’s aging water delivery and supply system, and court-ordered water supply cuts.

Because of the water shortage, growers are cutting back on production, fallowing land and stumping trees. The drought has cost the state more than $250 million in lost plantings and 80,000 acres of crops this year alone. And that doesn’t include the huge amount of idle farmland that hasn’t been planted in the past few years because of an unpredictable water supply.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/11/29/INPD149ND9.DTL

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-12-02 10:33:34

Beware the static analysis trap. If demand exists, then someone somewhere will be the supplier.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 10:41:40

How would you go about bringing the water here from one of the other 49 states?

You have a few months from now, till when we’re gonna need the water…

I’m all ears

Comment by sf jack
2008-12-02 10:58:07

Well, since you seem to think it’s not ever going to rain or snow again in California, you might be right.

We may be out of water in a few months.

On the other hand, after it rains and snows some this winter, and rationing is begun, the water supply for next summer will be more than adequate.

*****

And besides, there’s more than enough water north of here and one way to get it here is through The Messiah’s forthcoming WPA program.

The Governator and the clowns we have running the state from Sacramento will demand a pipeline be built from the Columbia right through the heart of nowhere Oregon down to Shasta Dam… conveniently putting all those homebuilders back to work.

And, like magic…

“Jobs and Columbia water for every Californian!”

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Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 11:13:30

sf jack,

from the article:

“While the drought seriously complicates matters, our problems will not be solved with just one wet winter.”
=================

We in the Golden State have been misled by those in charge of our water, an accounting trick not all that different from what is practiced on Wall Street.

The difference being, we can do without Wall Street, but not water.

 
Comment by sf jack
2008-12-02 11:35:21

I didn’t say any long term “problems” will be solved.

Of course we need to fix the levees, repair the HH aqueduct among other delivery systems, have rationing programs with real penalties to force residents, industry and agriculture to effectively do more with less (especially since the latter two, who use 2/3 of the water).

I said we’d have well more than enough water for the summer.

And certainly enough for food.

You said last summer we’d be out of water and/or food by the New Year. Now you say we’ll be out of water in a few months.

To compare the California water situation with Wall Street is folly. Wall Street, without bailouts, would effectively be out of business.

Will California ever completely run out of water? Will it just cease to exist in our lifetimes? Do you think a greater demand for it wouldn’t bring about a response? Just think about that before you answer.

And finally, alarmism shouldn’t suit you, but you seem to revel in it.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 12:51:45

“You said last summer we’d be out of water and/or food by the New Year. Now you say we’ll be out of water in a few months.”

I actually said that if we got another 2006-like disaster last year, our bacon would be cooked.

I have never mentioned a shortage of food being eminent…

It was looking good this year until March showed up and it stopped snowing, and then we had the warmest spring since 1922, melting the snow too quick, which has been the consensus opinion of what is going to happen to our snowpack, thanks to climate change.

The people in charge of water in our state are just as guilty as those on Wall Street. We could have started rationing way back when, but nobody stepped up to the plate and made the tough choices, did they?

To give you an idea of what a mess it is, a desalination plant has been approved to get at some of the quadrillions of gallons of water just off our shore near San Onofre, and it’s being delayed because of NIMBY’ism and the usual political backstabbing and looting…

That’s right, we are going to run out of water despite a veritable s-load of it right next to us.

Only in America

 
Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2008-12-02 13:37:39

We need nuclear reactors that generate electricity, while double as desalinization plants and leave some lead in there to transmutate it to gold (if a normal nuclear reactor can achieve this).

 
Comment by sf jack
2008-12-02 13:53:26

I’ll have to find a “food scarcity” prediction another time.

This one on water will have to do for now.

******

“Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-01 08:47:36

Battling 1,000+ wildfires using up precious freshwater in June, long before the traditional fire season gets going in the fall, combined with NO more snow in the High Sierra (the rivers are dropping precipitously) means that for those unlucky people in the ‘burbs of California, they are not gonna have any water, come December 31.

Book it.”

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 13:58:17

sf jack,

Almost all of the water the Bay Area receives is imported, and the Department of Water Resources has stated that imported deliveries will be cut by as much as 85%, but you’re not worried?
===========================================

Stretching from Contra Costa to Monterey, the South Bay region includes major cities such as San Jose, Oakland, Walnut Creek and San Mateo. Although some local streams and rivers have been developed to provide drinking water, much of the region’s surface water is imported from the Mokelumne, Tuolumne, Sacramento and Feather rivers. San Francisco’s Hetch Hetchy project supplies not only the city and county itself but also Hayward, San Jose and Palo Alto. Contra Costa County obtains its supplies directly from the Delta. The State Water Project’s South Bay Aqueduct supplies water to Alameda and Santa Clara counties.

http://www.water-ed.org/watersources/region.asp?rid=6

 
 
Comment by packman
2008-12-02 11:09:56

Easy - damn up the Yosemite valley.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!

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Comment by friar john
2008-12-02 12:59:33

Desalivanation anyone?

I hear CA has 700 miles of coastline…maybe our new infrastructure should include desalination plants. Water reclamation has been a rousing success here in san diego. Just tilt the head back, pinch your nose, and swallow. Tilt, pinch, and swallow. NYCityBoy, does this remind you of anything?

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Comment by dude
2008-12-02 15:00:07

Hey Lad,

What do you think of the idea of seeding the ocean with Iron chelate (rust) to enhance transpiration due to algae growth, thus increasing rainfall. Preliminary testing of this idea in the south pacific has shown promising results.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 16:41:22

dude,

I never heard of it…

I’ll read up and get back to you~

 
Comment by WhatOnceWas
2008-12-02 21:09:55

Excellent !…man made Red tides on demand. We can’t can’t think up ways fast enough to screw ourselves..

—-
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/commentary/guestcommentary?art_id=10157
” 1914 a new law authorised the Reichsbank to discount short-term bills issued by the Treasury, together with commercial bills, as cover for its notes…..thus was initiated a monetary inflation that was without precedent in history
……The new powers and policies adopted by the Fed will seem impossibly arcane to most people. They are not. They could be very dangerous. My preliminary look at the Weimar experience suggests potentially ominous parallels. If the Fed embarks on the road of monetising Treasury debt the longer term inflation outlook becomes more frightening. I intend to watch Fed and Treasury actions intently ”
What happened yesterday..oh yeh the fed will buy treasuries to prop the market…that should end well…..

 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 10:32:28

Superheroes come in all flavors nowadays…

What this world needs is:

ZIRPman

He’s a real nowhere man.

 
Comment by wmbz
2008-12-02 10:37:24

Harry Moonbat Reid, No more smelling stinking tourists!

Reid: We won’t smell the tourists anymore

By Jeff Dufour and Patrick Gavin

POSTED December 2, 2008 | 11:00 AM

The Capitol Visitors Center, which opened this morning, may have tripled its original budget and fallen years behind schedule, but Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid found a silver lining for members of Congress: tourists won’t offend them with their B.O. anymore.

“My staff tells me not to say this, but I’m going to say it anyway,” said Reid in his remarks. “In the summer because of the heat and high humidity, you could literally smell the tourists coming into the Capitol. It may be descriptive but it’s true.”

But it’s no longer going to be true, noted Reid, thanks to the air conditioned, indoor space.

And that’s not all. “We have many bathrooms here, as you can see,” Reid continued. “Souvenirs are available.”

$621 million well spent.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-12-02 12:07:18

Tell us what you really think of the voting public, Harry.

It’s ok, the next election is still two years off.

 
Comment by palmetto
2008-12-02 12:46:11

Priceless. I’ve always said that Harry Reid goes around with an “I smell sh*t” look on his sour old puss.

Lol, he acts like in Washington, no one’s sh*t stinks, but those outside of the bounds of Rome are ripe and fetid. Figures.

 
Comment by michael
2008-12-02 12:48:16

mmmmmm….cake.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-12-02 12:50:32

Would any of our resident Peak Oil theorists care to offer comment?

Finance & Economics
The price of oil
Down it goes
Dec 2nd 2008
From Economist.com

The price of oil has fallen below $50 a barrel. Why that may not be entirely welcome news

A BARREL of oil could be bought for $47.36 in after-hours trading at the New York Mercantile Exchange on Monday December 1st. The price of oil is now at its lowest level in over three years and some $100 cheaper per barrel than at its peak in July. The latest drop came after members of OPEC, who had gathered for an emergency meeting in Cairo at the weekend, failed to agree to cut output quotas, despite tumbling demand. Many analysts expect the oil price to drop further.

Comment by packman
2008-12-02 13:06:38

Total side note - I always think statements like this are funny:

“Many analysts expect the oil price to drop further.”

No duh. Being that the price of something is generally the mid-point between people that think the price will increase vs. people that think the price will decrease - that will always be a true statement. Just as true would be the statement “Many analysts expect the oil price to stop falling and to rise.”

Comment by VirginiaTechDan
2008-12-02 14:26:19

Don’t confuse “analysts” with “market participants”. The price is the mid-point in the market-participants expectations. Often the majority of the analysts can be on one side or the other on the predictions.

Comment by packman
2008-12-02 17:49:26

Fair enough, but the term “many” is a meaningless term. If they meant “most” then they should have said “most”.

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Comment by dude
2008-12-02 15:06:34

I was one of the PO proponents who fervently hoped and predicted that the credit bubble would implode in time to put a hold on growth.

I certainly think the mini-bubble in commodities due to increasing energy cost was a big part of what caused the precipitous collapse of the credit bubble.

Most people who understand markets and believe PO is real see this price drop as temporary, but I’ll bet it lasts at least as long as the depression just commenced.

My inner-trader is just itching to buy some oil at these prices, but so far I’ve managed to resist the urge. As I’ve stated before, I’m quiet frequently correct, and more frequently early, in my prognostication.

 
Comment by exeter
2008-12-02 19:38:41

Peak oil is here Professor Bear. What else could it be? After all, we’re running out of land, gold, food, water and everything else imaginable.

 
Comment by measton
2008-12-02 20:26:58

I think your quote answered your question

“The latest drop came after members of OPEC, who had gathered for an emergency meeting in Cairo at the weekend, failed to agree to cut output quotas, despite tumbling demand. ”

Maybe we’ve seen peak consumption.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-12-02 23:39:54

Perhaps peak collusion is behind us?

 
 
 
Comment by packman
2008-12-02 13:03:14

OFHEO home price data for Q3 is out.

One interesting observation - Charlotte, where prices had been climbing steadily albeit slowly all along, took a rather abrupt turn downward. Being that it’s the 2nd largest banking center in the U.S. (e.g. headquarters of Wachovia), that makes sense.

Merced continues its drastic plummet (fastest of all areas) - prices have fallen 32% there in just the last 6 months. Ouch.

Comment by packman
2008-12-02 13:12:23

Additional observation - other areas that hadn’t been considered bubbles at all, since prices didn’t rise significantly above inflation - e.g. Atlanta and St. Louis, now are also seeing significantly falling prices.

Many on here have predicted fallout to non-bubble areas. That prediction is now proving true.

 
Comment by packman
2008-12-02 13:26:38

And poor Seattle - the last big bubble holdout - is finally succumbing. Prices are now falling at about 8% annual rate, with the rate of fall increasing rapidly - same as has happened to all bubble areas, generally falling at 20-40% annually now since they’re further along the curve.

 
Comment by packman
2008-12-02 18:51:55

More observation (I’m an excel junkie) -

The average for all of the U.S. areas is now falling faster on the back end of the bubble, than it rose on the front end. This is true even in non-inflation-adjusted terms.

Thus the bubble is bursting faster than it inflated, by a fair amount. This, combined with the fact that some of the most bubbly areas (CA central valley, FL west coast) are already diving below their inflation-adjusted “normal” indexes, or are obviously going to dive below them within the next couple of quarters, indicates to me that the U.S. overall will be overshooting our home prices on the downside.

This is also supported by the census data indicating that we have yet to make a dent in the overhanging inventory - it remains at peak levels, despite the now-record-low level of new homebuilding. Obviously this is due to foreclosures. This data indicates that home price declines will continue at their current rate for probably 12-18 more months, before slowing the rate of decline.

End conclusion is - we are still in the very early stages of this downturn. While the housing downturn may not get worse in terms of the rate of price declines - it will get a lot worse still in terms of actual prices, and therefore in terms of the number of underwater mortgage holders. Thus I think the bulk of the pain with regards to revenue and profit losses, job losses, and consumer spending is still ahead of us.

 
 
Comment by BanteringBear
2008-12-02 13:30:06

DOW, ambling along in slightly positive range shortly after noon, then goes vertical to nearly 200, and climbing as I type.

Comment by packman
2008-12-02 14:11:52

GE up big on news their dividend will be unchanged. Also Bernanke with more innuendo about using more of our money to fill the bankers’ troughs.

Comment by measton
2008-12-02 20:28:51

I just love that they buy stock to infuse money and then the banks then give that money away via dividends. It seems that this basic fact would piss off middle America enough to riot. Not enough pain yet.

 
 
 
Comment by A.B. Dada
2008-12-02 13:49:41

Hey folks, missed the banter here during my unexpected recession boom in my markets. Glad to know that people are broke and selling assets and businesses at pennies on the dollar.

I’m back in Chicago and would love to find some of you Chicagoans and burbians to get together with more regularly. Please add me as your friend on facebook: abdada at unanimocracy dot com. I’m restarting a twice-a-month gathering to discuss politics, markets, and more. Also looking for decent business plans to invest in locally, and my incubator friends have a few million sitting on the sidelines in literal piles of cash under the mattress, so spring 2009 will be an investment spree for those with decent ideas, locations, and responsibility to sit and work.

Add me ASAP on facebook so we can talk more, I’ve just about dumped email as its been difficult to respond to everyone regularly.

Comment by palmetto
2008-12-02 14:27:41

Love to hear your views on the Mumbai situation, AB. You’ve said you travel there a bit.

 
Comment by Blano
2008-12-02 19:09:30

What about those of us who don’t do facebook?? I’ve always thought facebook, myspace etc. was a complete waste of time. have never even looked at them.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-12-02 13:57:14

Bernanke is making Jas Jain look like the true genius among HB Bloggers.

Credit Suisse Reverses Forecast After Fed Collapses Yield Curve
By Dakin Campbell

Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) — Credit Suisse Group AG reversed its forecast for a steeper Treasury yield curve after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said he would consider buying U.S. government debt and target long-term interest rates.

The difference in yield between 10-year Treasury notes and two-year securities will fall to 1.50 percentage points, according to Credit Suisse, one of the 17 firms that trade directly with the central bank. Credit Suisse strategists led by Dominic Konstam said in an Oct. 31 report the difference in yield would approach 3 percentage points.

“Since then, the Fed announced this quantitative easing which is certainly quicker than we thought they would ever do,” Konstam, head of interest rate strategy at Credit Suisse Securities USA LLC in New York, said in an interview. “They have collapsed the yield curve.”

The difference in yield has narrowed to 1.78 percentage points from 2.62 percentage points Nov. 13, according to Bloomberg data. The Credit Suisse strategists based their earlier estimate on expectations for further interest-rate cuts and increased Treasury issuance, which they expected would push longer-term yields higher.

The change in policy means the shape of the yield curve is no longer “relying on supply considerations and the Fed taking rates to zero,” Konstam said.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2008-12-02 19:13:34

“Bernanke is making Jas Jain look like the true genius among HB Bloggers.”

Did Jas predict quantitative easing? I don’t recall…

I thought he was predicting true deflation, and my take is that the jury is still out on that.

 
Comment by cactus
2008-12-02 20:39:59

“They have collapsed the yield curve.”

just wait and they will collaspe the dollar, remember Japan kept their yen low doing this kind of trick and created the yen carry trade which many beleive helped cause the US RE bubble.

Free money from Japan so why not borrow and buy US RE for any price, it was very inflationary but not in Japan.

Maybe the US will export any re-inflation attempt as banks don’t like USA borrowers anymore and decide to lend to…. ?

 
 
Comment by takingbets
2008-12-02 14:19:49

The economy needs us to spend, but we feel a need to save.

And it’s not just our own economy that relies on U.S. consumers. Other economies, notably exporters like China and Japan, depend heavily on our open wallets. Because of the slowdown in the U.S., factories overseas are closing and tens of thousands of people in those countries are being thrown out of work.

Another reason for stretching on your gift giving this year: It will lift spirits during a difficult time. The economic and financial markets have served up nothing but grim tidings during the past few months. You have a chance to reverse that trend, just a little. You’ll make someone smile and, who knows, you might help start the economy back down the right track.

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/106223/It’s-OK-to-Splurge-This-Season-A-Little

What I take away from this article is that we are not to think about our finances just the finances of others? Where do the corporate CEO’s salary and bonuses fit into this generosity were are supposed to have? Isent that what this boils down to?

Comment by In Colorado
2008-12-02 16:34:08

Indeed, where were the pay raises that matched worker bee productivity gains?

The article might as well have said (in a whiney voice): “Awwwww, c’mon, borrow more money you know you can’t pay back”

Comment by cactus
2008-12-02 20:50:15

“Indeed, where were the pay raises that matched worker bee productivity gains?”

They went to the CEO’s

 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-12-02 17:23:30

I read that article this morning. That has to be the most pathetic trash I’ve read in an awful long time. Good going NYT.

The only positive about reading it is that it may help some to see what a lap dog the MSM is to the PTB.

 
 
Comment by hoz
2008-12-02 15:37:10

Behind the 2008 Capital Market Collapse
Date: 2008-10-26
By: C-René Dominique
abstract
Greed and the unethical behavior of financial institutions obviously played a part in the collapse of the world capital market in 2008. But, this paper argues that the main culprits are the neo-liberal ideology (requiring ever smaller gov-ernments and privatization) and the flawed theories of risk assessment. It also finds that given the fact that market economies are fractal structures, the objective assessment and / or the quantification of risks is not even possible. It concludes with some recommendations as to how to avoid future collapses.

“…Greed is natural and hence has few remedies in the short run. Amoral and unethical behaviors are to be expected in unsupervised settings, while flawed theories do have long lasting consequences. I will focus on the last two. For, the neo-liberal economic philosophy that was officially shaping world attitude for the last twenty-two years, was presented as the passport to affluence; its obvious and, now undeniable, negative impacts were never mentioned. As far as flawed scientific theories are concerned, as their negative consequences are quite enduring, they must be deconstructed at the first opportunity….”

http://www.eeri.eu/documents/wp/EERI_RP_2008_17.pdf

Greed has few remedies in the long run. Interesting paper nay the less.

Ok you Neo Liberals, It is all your fault!

Comment by clue
2008-12-02 18:54:28

here’s a couple of questions, hozzie.

Why is Paulson heading to China?

why the blowout on the CDS in US and UK?

“Five-year CDS on UK government debt jumped 7 basis points to a record 106.4 basis points while the 10-year U.S. Treasury CDS hit a record 66.4 basis points, up two basis points on the day, credit data company CMA DataVision said.

That means it costs 106,400 pounds per year to insure 10 million of UK government bonds against default and $66,400 per year against the United States defaulting on its 10-year debt.”

In both cases the underlying currency is the denomination of the bonds in question. How is a default even possible?

Folks, this is about to become un-fricken-glued. Something very sinister is lurking, and a BK by one or multiple automakers may be the trigger.

 
Comment by clue
2008-12-02 19:16:04

want another question?

http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/02/news/companies/AIG/index.htm

“NEW YORK(CNNMoney.com) — Troubled insurer American International Group moved another step closer to stabilizing its finances on Tuesday.

The company announced that a financing entity — funded by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and AIG — has purchased $46.1 billion in complex debt securities insured by AIG. As part of the deal, the insurance-type contracts, called credit default swaps, were terminated.”

Does this smell funny?

 
Comment by clue
2008-12-02 20:40:39

jeez cant even get a comment in.

Comment by clue
2008-12-02 20:47:29

2 comments missing, ben.

Comment by clue
2008-12-02 20:55:07

hoz, meet me here over the weekend. and answer the questions… you too pussycat.

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Comment by cactus
2008-12-02 20:48:15

“Neo Liberals” what on earth is a Neo liberal ?

 
Comment by clue
2008-12-02 20:52:45

ITs all there. Where is transparency, disclosure, and full understanding MISSING?

“In my view, the true reasons for the unwillingness of the central banks to make public the identities of the banks using their liquidity or lending facilities have nothing to do with stigma. For the banks, commercial confidentiality is an overriding concern. They see the revelation of the identities of banks borrowing from the central bank as the thin end of the wedge towards more onerous reporting and audit obligations. Even if shareholders might be interested, management and captive boards would not be, as it would dilute their discretion to manage the bank for their own purposes.

There are wider political externalities associated with accepting ’stigma’ as an argument for hiding relevant information about the use of public resources. It would create a dangerous precedent as regards accountability for the use of public resources in other areas than liquidity support by the central bank. I am sure many other beneficiaries of state’s financial largesse would prefer to have their names kept out of the papers. They should not be granted this wish. Accountability for the use of public funds is well worth a bit of stigma.

For the central banks, the refusal to reveal the identities of the borrowers is partly just the manifestation in this particular setting of a long-standing central bank obsession with secrecy and confidentiality. This goes back to the period of central bankers as performers in quasi-religious mysteries, with central banks as their temples. Significant remnants of this ethic can still be found on the European continent and in the US - less so in the UK.

Many central banks are also far too close to the banks they deal with - they have been the objects of cognitive regulatory capture or other forms of regulatory capture. As a result they tend to act as advocates or lobbyists for the banking sector rather than as supervisors, regulators and sources of scarce public funds that have to be properly accounted for.

In addition, revealing the identities of the borrowing banks is likely to be seen by the central banks as part of a political drive towards greater accountability by the central banks for their use of public resources - as asset managers or indeed as portfolio managers. Central banks rightly fear that the pursuit of their traditional objectives - price stability (or price stability and full employment) and financial stability - could be impaired by too close a scrutiny of their performance as managers of ever larger and ever more risky portfolios of public and private securities. Well, welcome to the 21st century world of central banking.”\\

———
from naked capitalism.

 
 
Comment by Kim
2008-12-02 15:54:09

I apologize if this link has been previously posted.

The Investor “Revolt” Over Modified Loans

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28018161

“I’m actually surprised it took this long. As more and more banks announced they were getting more and more aggressive on loan modifications, it seemed the investors in these loans were being just a little too silent.”

 
Comment by Kim
2008-12-02 16:03:13

Cramer is on CNBC now hollering that he called the downturn in the markets “months and months and months ago”.

:::sigh:::

Comment by Kim
2008-12-02 16:19:13

Now he wants to be SEC chairman.

 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-12-02 16:20:17

Police: Ohio college adviser ran prostitute raffle
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28003137/

“An Ohio State University academic adviser and a real estate agent held a $10-a-ticket raffle that offered an evening with a prostitute who is also a child sex-abuse caseworker, police said.”

Oh, and get the real estate agent’s name. It’s ’Rusty Blades’.

Wha…? I mean, ummm…I mean….wha? Jeeze, there’s a log-jam of possible replies to this. I guess I’ll just leave it up to NYCity. Come on, NYCity! Deliver, man!

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-02 16:46:08

Just back from lunch with my friend, a helicopter pilot.

He’s been racking up hours for the past couple years teaching flight school, and he told me that all of the sudden there are no new students, because they can’t get loans.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-12-02 23:31:06

Maybe he could go to work for Bernanke and company?

 
 
Comment by dude
2008-12-02 20:19:59

I got an offer from tdameritrade today offering a “free” blu-ray dvd player and netflix subscription if I deposit $100,000 in my account.

Sounds pretty tempting…

 
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