Bits Bucket For December 7, 2008
Please visit the HBB Forum. Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
Links
-
November 2024 M T W T F S S « Sep 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Photo Submission: hbbphotos@gmail.com
View the HBB Photo Gallery *updated 4/13/2008
Some of the regular posters have been resorting to personal insults and foul language that is just not acceptable. Clean up your acts or I will ban you.
I found out dealing with my kids and MySpace.com , that those resorting to personal insults , foul language and threats through the Internet and from the personal safety of their home. Were actually the most cowardly when confronted in person .
RE: that those resorting to personal insults , foul language and threats through the Internet and from the personal safety of their home. Were actually the most cowardly when confronted in person .
I formerly belonged to a group called “the Patriot Riders” which is a national organization of motorcycle riders who at the request of the families of KIA US military men & women act as escorts and physical shields against antiwar protestors intent on the disruption of their loved one’s funerals.
Unfortunately, the secretary of the chapter to which I belonged, used her position to advocate a boycott of Exxon Mobil when gas prices were escalating. When I called her on the fact that this type of comment was not the focus of the group and completely detached from it’s mission, I got an avalanche of “hate mail” about abusing poor “Doris” or whatever her name was.
I have to say the outrageousness, vindictiveness, and inflammatory nature of the missives were really quite astounding.
My response to each; forward me your immediate physical address. Within the week I will come to your place of occupancy, and allow you the opportunity to say directly to my face, what you have conveyed to me via the anonymity of a computer. I am 6′ 195lbs. and will arrive unarmed. I look forward your reply.
As is the usual case with cowards, there were no takers.
I quit the Patriot Riders directly after the incident.
Ya just never know who your friends are today.
Yup. Keyboard Cowboys who can and will say anything from behind a monitor. I was part of a 4wheel drive forum and there were plenty of big mouthed tough guys until the day we had our first event. These same tough guys either wouldn’t show or the 5 or 6 that did have the intestinal fortitude to show up skulked and cowered in the presence of the rest of us. And all 6 of them were 100 pounds soaking wet or 5′-6″ or both. We ultimately discovered that the ones that didn’t show were twentysomething know-nothings still on mom and dads payroll.
I’d encourage you to rejoin the PR at another chapter if you enjoyed it. Seems like a great way to serve someone.
‘I got an avalanche of “hate mail” about abusing poor “Doris” or whatever her name was.’
Her name is ‘Doris’?! Man, that’s punishment enough, right there.
I’ll take the blame. Thanks Ben.
NYCityBoy
My father would have liked you.
Maybe it was me, discussing Jas.
If so, sorry, Ben.
How about if I go pray to be better.
Olygal,
Good to see you survived the night.
Glad you did, too.
It was fun. Let’s do it again sometime, sanfrangal, only more dainty-like, evidently.
All right, what have you two been up to…
Just trying to be good Lost. Go read the bits Bucket from last night
No! Don’t! Hahahaha!
Too late.
Honestly Ben, if da Gold Pimpz would pimp on a precious blog, I think we’d all be better off. I realize a natural extension of this housing discussion is investing itself, but we spend way too much time on that nonsense.
Pet Essay Writers, all of you!!
I’m guessing my last reply was innapropriate, so let me say it this way: it would be better if we focused on housing at the housing bubble blog.
Things peripheral to housing are part of the picture. If not, all you have to do is look at the housing stats at the end of the month. I, personally, am able to get a better read on what is happening by people’s personal comments and the tenor of their comments. I agree that personal attacks and bad language are inappropriate. The trajectory of this housing deflation, whether we like it or not, affects all of our lives in many ways and will continue to do so for some time. This blog provides me with a window to a national (and international) cross section of the results of these affects on people’s lives in real time. I dont know how It could be gotten anywhere else.
+1. One can be civilized while discussing any topic.
Things peripheral to housing are part of the picture.
Agreed.
One of the reasons discussion on this blog is far above average — informationally and entertainment-wise — is precisely because of the tangents into investment, monetary policy, environmental policy, consumerism and so on. While it may occasionally become contentious or repetitive, it would be a shame to lose that wider scope.
Agreed as well, but it’s tiresome, and Alad never considers other possibilities or that he may be wrong. To me that is the essence of being a blogger here: reforming your plan and considering options and alternate outcomes.
I’m tired of the gold-bugging and most of the animosity stems form the gnat-like comments that follow it.
“Agreed as well, but it’s tiresome, and Alad never considers other possibilities or that he may be wrong. To me that is the essence of being a blogger here: reforming your plan and considering options and alternate outcomes.”
Oh really?
Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-01 07:50:08
This may come as a shock, but I shorted quite a bit of mellow yellow last week, when the oil-gas ratio went out of whack so much last week.
It was over 400 gallons of dinosaur juice to the ounce…
Over the last 75 years or so, it’s been around 125-225 gallons.
If you’re tired of the gold bugs, then DON’T READ THEIR POSTS. It’s really simple, you just skim over what you don’t like. While I might not agree with everything he says, Alad has been a valuable and highly entertaining contributor to this blog. Furthermore, if you don’t like it, set up your own blog in which you dictate what others talk about. No whiners.
If you play “relative valuation” (a personal favorite), you should go long the underlying as well (= oil, in this case.)
Naked one-way bets are not a good idea.
There’s a vast pool of oil going nowhere fast presently, and they keep pulling it out of the ground, so ixnay on that idea.
In that case, it’s not a relative bet just a one-way bet (not that there is anything wrong with that!) so stop justifying it with the ratio.
The justification must match the bet otherwise both are full of cr@p.
My justification is a small but useful profit that I will be taking early next week…
I feel the price could go down more, but there are other factors to be considered, and timing as always-is essential.
I have no problems with one-way bets, relative bets, or even more complex plays.
Been there, done that, do it, and will be doing it.
I just want the justification to match the bet is all.
In the end, it was just the last paper profits I expect to make under the regime of the almighty Dollar, based upon the ratio, nothing more.
In the words of Homer Simpson, “Last profits so far.”
“Day of the Locust” Homer Simpson or the TV kind?
“Merrill Lynch on Thursday warned that oil prices could fall as low as $25 a barrel in 2009 if the recession hitting the US, Europe and Japan extended to China, the world’s engine of commodities demand growth in the last few years.”
this is the part that rhymes with 200 dollar a barrell punditry that came out earlier this year, I like 37 on oil, long side. 37 seems to be the break-even on the GCC.
It’s from the Simpsons’ Movie (= TV kind.)
“Furthermore, if you don’t like it, set up your own blog in which you dictate what others talk about.”
I’m not trying to dictate what other talk about. The one theme that repeatedly flairs tempers on this blog, in almost every thread, is cash v. gold. Please don’t act like Alad doesn’t intentionally fuel the fire. He even admits it. His only piece of evidence against my claim that he pimps gold is that he shorted it!!?!
I enjoy his witticism and knowledge as well, but he’s also smart enough to realize that he can lay off every now and then, and refrain from gold turding on every thread.
I am not asking for a reduction in diversity of opinions, I am specifically asking Alad to stop being a gold troll, and stick to HBB riffing.
“Merrill Lynch on Thursday warned that oil prices could fall as low as… What does ML know about anything? They completely missed the housing bubble as it inflated, and now people are hanging on every pronouncement ML & other clueless organisations can put into the media.
Muggy,
There are quite a few professional victims that ply their traits on here, yourself included.
You bitch about things that you dare not address from a standpoint of actually taking action to remedy your situation.
Why’s that?
“If you play “relative valuation” (a personal favorite), you should go long the underlying as well (= oil, in this case.)”
FPSS, I believe at the deviation from historical ratios Alad quoted, the correct spread to execute would have been long gold and short oil.
He quoted 400 gallons/ounce current valuation, 125-225 gallons/ounce historical valuation as the data he was acting on.
With that data, the collapse of the spread would be cheaper oil relative to gold.
Looks to me like Alad executed one side of the precisely wrong spread, and got lucky that all commodities are all still deflating.
Answer the question.
You put your gold t*rds on every thread independent of whether it has anything to do with it or not.
Most of us are not here to advocate anything. You on the other hand are an active p*mp for a position.
Prime,
Yeah, I guess I was reading so quickly. You’re right.
Short the numerator, long the denominator if you expect it to collapse.
(I have no personal opinion on this trade.)
It sounds like I did everything wrong, but was right somehow, according to self-assured experts…
You guys kill me.
I tell you how to make money, and i’d wager that not a one of you acted upon my information!
p.s. “small but useful profit” was a favorite saying of a English friend. It meant just the opposite. ha
Firstly, we don’t give a cr@p how much you made.
There are quite a few rich ones here. You can guess quite easily. (Hint hint: they’re quite modest.)
Secondly, I would not advertise my stupidity on a public forum. I’d take my money and go home and have a blast.
“There are quite a few professional victims that ply their traits on here, yourself included.”
Please explain how I am a professional victim. Seriously, teach me something.
“You bitch about things that you dare not address from a standpoint of actually taking action to remedy your situation.”
This is incorrect. In an effort to get back on track, and honor Ben’s request, this will be my last post to you for items unrelated to housing.
I take action by assisting the youth in the worst neighborhoods. When I walk out the door, I am literally risking my life to make where I live better. Try doing my job with a baby at home. It sounds like you can barely bring yourself to looking a mezzcan (or whatever insulting, borderline racist terms you toss around) in the eye , or one of the many handcannon owners allegedly stalking you and your carrots.
You are banking on collapse, bragging about plans to “escape”, and generally dislike the public.
Unlike gold, my investment, kids, will actually multiply. Don’t ever accuse me of not taking action. If you would like to fly to the Tampa area and shadow me for a day, you’re more than welcome.
You’d take one look at the homes I enter, and run away crying.
So, the best I can expect from you is a backhanded compliment, by telling me how dumb I was?
I can only imagine what you would have said, had I been wrong in my assessment of the situation…
In an effort to get back on track, and honor Ben’s request, I am not responding to you unless it is related to housing.
I appreciate that. You seem to obsess about me, when you should be obsessing about you.
We’d just appreciate it if you shut the f*ck up about gold.
Wow that was the fastest train derailment I’ve ever seen, and just after Ben put the train back on the track.
Can I get a Kumbaya in C, please?
Jeeeeezzzz . . . .
Wait, I thnk I got that backwards above after all:
“He quoted 400 gallons/ounce current valuation, 125-225 gallons/ounce historical valuation as the data he was acting on.”
That _would_ suggest short gold, long oil. Alad and FPSS were right the first time.
Sorry about that…
“I, personally, am able to get a better read on what is happening by people’s personal comments and the tenor of their comments. I agree that personal attacks and bad language are inappropriate. The trajectory of this housing deflation, whether we like it or not, affects all of our lives in many ways and will continue to do so for some time. This blog provides me with a window to a national (and international) cross section of the results of these affects on people’s lives in real time. I dont know how It could be gotten anywhere else.”
Well stated.
This is precisely the uniqueness of the HBB. Not only do I get on the ground reports from those who have no equity stake in the REIC, I pick up the nuance, the sentiment so to speak, of that posters report. The circle of real estate evil is comprised of NAR and it’s minions, the “free” press and government(and it’s money). Piercing through the wall of REIC propaganda is nearly impossible locally as most folks on Main Street are deluded themselves. Only hear can you get the true pulse of local real estate in real time as the market fluxes.
HBB is a literate and online soap opera for those of us who paid attention in our civics classes. The discourse here is a thing of Beauty. As is the dialectic…something of an Oxford Union for the market economy. (Or a WWE…I’m not quite sure yet.)
Bless you, Ben.
I agree Carlos. I appreciate the difference of opinions on this board. All of the discussions about gold, cash, stocks, oil etc.. is connected with the housing bubble. I agree with other posters, if you don’t like a certain type of discussion scrolling will save you from being frustrated.
Agree, also.
It’s when we refuse to look at the larger picture that we make the same mistakes as the FBs. We cannot and should not hyper-focus on just one part of the economic picture (like housing, or gold, or oil, or…). It ignores all the levers and influences that move that small portion.
Everything is inter-related.
Investing in housing is one of many options regarding where to park one’s money, or exhaust one’s credit. I have to examine each month what I want to do with my house fund given the climate. In addition, the length and depth of the recession, and value of others assets, and the government’s response thereto, will have a direct impact on housing prices. In fact the biggest impact. Also, for every dollar we told ppl to pull out of equities at the peak, at least 40% was saved for down payments (or fund the entire purchase price) on homes when prices become affordable again. I personally have saved $240k by reading this blog, having others confirm my views on the market, and going all cash equivalent at the peak. My estimation is that our collective views on the market expressed in this room have saved Ben’s readers millions in this manner. So I encourge Ben to foster discussions on the broader market. The game was never limited to housing. The game was always debt leverage and structured finance, as to which housing was a mere subset. If you dont understand the macro structure, you have no basis to form well informed views on where we are headed.
RE: I personally have saved $240k by reading this blog, having others confirm my views on the market, and going all cash equivalent at the peak. My estimation is that our collective views on the market expressed in this room have saved Ben’s readers millions in this manner.
One older dude from FL who is a regular poster on the Raging Bull/HDI bulletin board sold out his entire stock holdings in November of ‘07 based on my persistant negative comments on the housing market and the posting of links related to this site.
He wrote me a blurb about how indebted he felt to have had the opportunity to gain credible extraneous validation of his own personal views to the extent he acted on them to preserve a large portion of his limited wealth, which was earned as a house painter.
Another tip ‘o the hat to Ben.
I wrote this post the other day, but I think the computer ate it.
I have to thank the HBB for not only me, but for a friend of mine. I can thank the very level-headed discussion (and dissent) that goes on here for the fact that I started to aggressively pay down my student loan debt, mentally started thinking about ways to save cash (cash is king!) once my debt was gone, and not buy a home until certain financial milestones were met and the external environment was not toxic.
My friend (with whom I shared much of the information here) also did not buy a house although everyone she knew was buying houses because she realized that it wasn’t a good idea.
Two points for the HBB! That said, I don’t like when discussion becomes disrespectful and belligerent (and, most annoyingly, repetitive!), which then means that I am skimming over lots of posts, and not really learning anything while I am doing it. Waste of time. I can go to other blogs for that. Not the point of the HBB.
Except for trolls. Treat them accordingly
Well said, Tim.
I don’t mind the gold discussion in general, but having to scroll through the same tiresome monologues in every thread sux.
This is the Bits Bucket.
B. I. N. G. O. Give this poster a free space on the bingo card.
From one perspective, this might indicate the types of problems this blog is intended to address (house bubble and it’s fallout) has started to have a real impact on individual lives, not just those losing homes because they overpaid and could not afford them. I estimate the current economic collapse has personally cost me some $30K and climbing, since I lost some on investments and now find myself out of work. Not that I would ever resort to such bad behaviour, it does show we are all impacted by what is happening.
BTW, it is my understanding that the tax payer is on the hook for some $8.Something Trillion dollars to date. Based on a population of some 300 Million Americans each of you is now on the hook for $26,000 in addition to any losses you may have incurred on your 401K’s etc.
Let’s be honest, we are all still very much interested in the housing bubble, but that was only the 1st act of a drawn out play…
Virtually everybody that owns stocks has gotten creamed, but certain contrarians have done just fine-even in the midst of a meltdown.
‘trarians bore me to tiers…
‘each of you is now on the hook for $26,000′
This brings up a statistic that was true prior to the housing bubble. Supposedly, we are all on the hook for over $500,000, each. Allow me to suggest that not only will none of us ever pay that back, we won’t even cover the interest. We can’t.
Contrary to common opinion, we owe most of this to ourselves, in the form of entitlements, etc. It has been widely acknowledged that most of us won’t receive these entitlements, but we don’t save as though that is the case.
This is an age when powerful politicians can say ‘deficits don’t matter’ and scoff at the ‘reality based community’ with a straight face. Not only have the chickens come home to roost, but uncle sam is passed out on the kitchen floor and the hens are pecking at his face.
‘…but uncle sam is passed out on the kitchen floor and the hens are pecking at his face.’
Ummm. Wow. Now THERE’S a vivid image, and one guaranteed to linger.
Thanks for the visual, Ben. I think.
Not getting paid what “we owe ourselves” in entitlements has been obvious for a generation. What we owe to other countries is kind of unavoidable.
Is it, really? What exactly are they going to do?
What exactly did they do when Nixon went off the Gold Standard? Remind me!
Ben and Faster –
There was a poster who popped in here a few times maybe back in August or so, discussing the relative non-importance of the federal deficit. Any idea who this person might have been?
I agreed with everything he/she said.
I’m always amazed the great attention that is paid to the national debt. Maybe someday folks will figure out how thoroughly unimportant the concept of national debt actually is, particularly since countries around the globe are in hoc together.
Whether or not INDIVIDUALS save money for themselves is what is vital. There will be no Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, etc., for most of us.
What would be interesting on this board is to see some threads about what is rarely discussed here: TAXES.
Wow a follower of Dick Deficits don’t matter Cheney
Maybe someday folks will figure out how thoroughly unimportant the concept of national debt actually is, particularly since countries around the globe are in hoc together.
Keep watching, national debt is going to be real important. Imagine a US default or the massive inflation that will have to occur to pay this off.
“…and the hens are pecking at his face.”
I would substitute ‘on’ for ‘at’ and another four-letter word for ‘peck’, but I don’t want to be banished…
“…we owe most of this to ourselves, in the form of entitlements,…”
Here is the big crime of loose-lipped bailout talk. This politician says we are going to pay $700 bn for this bailout, that bureaucrat says we will put up $28 bn in guarantees for that bailout, the new administration promises $1 tn or so for more bailouts, and eventually we are committing lots of money to new obligations which will completely bury any prospect of paying existing ones (like Social Security, for instance). Loose lips sink ships, and loose-lipped bailout talk sinks promises.
Egad, I hope NYCB stays within’s Ben’s boundaries. We need NYCB both for his local knowledge and also for his rancor (appropriately expressed).
Good morning to all from the magic Land of Ben! Spent the night in Williams AZ on my way from the east to Calif. I am half expecting to see that Calif has dropped off into the sea due to “mortgage-burdened homeowners” from last night’s thread.
My cousin Sherry, who is my latest poster child for the Mortgage Crisis, now has her place (Maine waterview, 2+ acres, 2 bldgs) listed for about twice what she owes, although it is in fact a desperation sale. Am I sure she is not underwater? No I’m not. However, there may be a reasonable chance it will sell if she can be persuaded to reduce the price every month or two. Right now she is selling furniture and jewelry to make ends meet.
North of Fresno my landlord is doing a short sale, original price $625,000. Latest asking price $349,000 and not one potential buyer has come to look at the property.
When one is upside down in Fresno, you might say they are “On Serf”.
If you’re selling furniture and jewelry to make ends meet, you’d better get a sale real quick.
This should be obvious to anyone (maybe not those high on the REIC fumes.)
Wait, Is it ok if i still use the foul language if it isn’t a personal attack!?!?
/Damnit.
Diversity is what makes this blog so interesting. I agree with Ben, I’ve been somewhat put off by the lack of respect here lately, and although respect is earned, we still all deserve to be heard and not vilified for our opinions. And intellectual sparring is much different from getting down and dirty.
RE: I’ve been somewhat put off by the lack of respect here lately,
I found the attack on regular LA Investor Girl to be detestable.
‘I found the attack on regular LA Investor Girl to be detestable.’
Oh, yeah? Well, I found LAinvestor HERSELF to be …
Oh, wait, I gotta be good. Sigh.
I guess I’ll go watch the teevee for a bit and shout advice at the little colorful people running around in there. That always soothes me.
“I found the attack on regular LA Investor Girl to be detestable.”
Just y .02, but I remember LA Girl’s posts.
Nobody should be “attacked”–but I gotta say, her repeated rants on how “prices haven’t dropped yet here, there…” reminded me of being on a long, long drive, with a little kid in the backseat asking every 5 minutes “are we there yet,” “are we there yet?”
DOC
Will the ban be permanent or temporary?…..and, if temporary, how long for first, second, third offenses? I want to be able to weigh my options in light of the consequences.
I knew you’d rise to the occasion with an apposite cost-benefit analysis.
I must have missed some of those threads.
Ben, I think you should ban everybody for a few days so I can catch up on my other reading…
Hear Here! Or is it, Here Hear!!
Hear, hear! (as in “hear what this person has to say)
“Some of the regular posters have been resorting to personal insults and foul language that is just not acceptable. Clean up your acts or I will ban you.”
Ben, you’re doing such a good job that you’re catching the “bad” posts before I’ve even seen them. I actually don’t think I’ve even seen one.
Anyway, I’ve noticed that things have gotten awfully hot-and-flamey around the internet lately. Bad moods abound. Perhaps another result of the bad economy?
IMO, stop the personal insults and you put a end to the foul language…The personal attacks just prompt the retaliation…
Yes.
It’s one thing to have a vicious debate about a topic, but good debaters never make personal attacks.
IMHO, personal attacks signal weaknesses in their arguments, and mean they are incapable of making points that validate their beliefs and opinions.
*pokes head into thread
I’ll try to lay off the late night shenanigans. I just woke up with a pounding headache, reeking of pumpkin pie spice as mrs clue coughed up what looked like a santa hat. Good lord, what have I done?
slinks out of thread*
~just trying to have a little fun Ben, no harm intended.
That couldn’t be it, clue. For verily, EVERYONE loves pumpkin pies and Santa Claus hats!
Oh, and hahaha! IIIIII don’t have a headache.
You need to build up your tolerance, man.
The real question is what happened to the brass swan, huh, huh, huh?
Tell you later, when Ben’s not looking.
Hahahahah!
Actually, nothing. It’s still just sitting right here by my desk, looking as stupid as it ever did. Perhaps a tad more smug, now that it sees me trying to be good.
Heh, that hazelnut stuff sent me over the edge last night.
It’s almost 4pm here and I skipped lunch ’cause I ate so much yesterday. My body restores its own balance.
I think I’ll have a beer though.
BTW, did you know that nutmeg gives you “colorful” dreams? The Italians love to add it to their pasta stuff.
I love hazelnut. I was drooling when you were talking about your hazelnut binge last night FPSS.
Me too. I love hazelnuts.
I make this terrific pasta with wild mushrooms and hazelnuts. That should tempt both you and Oly.
‘BTW, did you know that nutmeg gives you “colorful” dreams? The Italians love to add it to their pasta stuff.’
I did not know that. But I’m always happy to learn these things.
Those Italians—they know all about everything, it seems. I was talking with someone the other day, they were just back from Italy, and they announced that the Italians have it all worked out, just completely and totally worked out. Italians’ve made and lived history, wars, conquest, all of that exciting nonsense and they all now know what REALLY matters in life: food, and good clothes, and food, and ma*king lo*ve, and food, and good wine, and food, and enjoying oneself arguing around little tables. That’s it, that’s all.
Sounds good to me! I’ve never been to Italy, but I would have to heartily agree with this world view.
Until they ran out of money, Italians used to drink their best wines and export the bad stuff (unlike the “worldly” French.)
Veritably, there is nothing more to say.
‘I make this terrific pasta with wild mushrooms and hazelnuts. That should tempt both you and Oly.’
Oh, it does tempt. Look at me slobber.
Anyway, I’ll be! I, too, adore hazlenuts! We’re all like triplets, here!
And now, listen to this–prepare yourselves—yes! I, Olygal, planted a hazlenut tree in my front yard this past summer! Or maybe it’s a filbert tree. I admit I can’t tell the difference. I didn’t even know there WAS a difference for a time, I was so iggerant. I probably should have bought a specimen from an organized nursery, instead of what I did, which was I grubbed up some suckers from a pretty shrub over on the Westside. You can coppice the trees and end up with a shrubby sort of bush, or try to train them into a stumpy little tree. It’s not very big at this time. Some foolish persons would think it was only a clump of sticks stuck in the ground, but not me–I see the potential. I see me eating hazlenuts and singing drunkenly. Like right now. Oh, wait, this IS right now, except there’s no hazlenuts.*
Anyway, if it gets big and makes nuts I’ll mail you both some. How fun! Assuming we still have internet and a postal system in a few years, and not just roving bands of crazed hazle-nut devourers with sticks in their hair. Like me, right now, except there’s no hazlenuts.
Dadgummit!! Where’s the hazlenuts!!!!
*Not really. I said that for the style. That’ll happen LATER today. Hahahaa!
Here’s the recipe: link.
And yes, that’s my food blog. I write one.
‘Here’s the recipe: link.’
‘Make it or endure regret forever’.
I…I….I think I just had a…well, you know what I mean.
Nice!
Well, it IS my blog.
You didn’t think I was writing to win friends and influence people, did you?
I was going to ask you for the recipie. Thanks for the post. Mom and I love mushrooms.
I could always use a few more groupies on my food blog.
‘I was going to ask you for the recipie. Thanks for the post. Mom and I love mushrooms.’
Once AGAIN I ask you, SanFrany: why ARE you there, when you should be HERE, here where there is rain? Rain and mushrooms?
No, no…that’s okay. You don’t have to answer. You just should think about it, quietly, in your mind, when you find yourself wishing for something…
Cool blog, Faster. I like to cook, so will check it out periodically. I never liked brussel sprouts, either, but might try to prepare them as you suggest, as a personal challenge to my taste buds.
‘I could always use a few more groupies on my food blog.’
And here we are! Me, anyway.
“Not just because I’m from Bombay (now Mumbai) but because it’s a tight, slickly-edited modern day thriller + love story in a Bollywood guise via Lancashire and Hollywood.”
FPSS — are you really from Mumbai? The food photos on your blog are very delectable — makes me want to spend more time in the kitchen, frankly…
Thank you FPSS!
Rats, you are a gentleman.
Whocouldhaveknown?
Leigh
Oh my, my.
Glad to see you survived the night also Clue.
I’m sure I have done my share, Ben. I’ll tone it down as well.
Talk about front seats for the game
” Senators were given front row seats from the company they were supposed to be overseeing ”
well imagine that…….sheesh
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081207/the_influence_game_freddie_mac.html
Click-2-Listen
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
The Wall Street Journal
Sunday, December 07, 2008
As the glut of foreclosed homes swells, banks and other lenders are starting to warm to the idea of selling some of the homes in bulk to investors, a departure from the practice of selling homes one at a time.
For the past year, investors have been eager to buy large numbers of homes from lenders at knockdown prices. Lenders have generally resisted that idea, but now some are trying it out on a small scale.
Barclays Capital estimates that banks and loan investors owned 871,000 foreclosed homes as of Nov. 1, up from 414,000 a year earlier. Barclays forecasts that this inventory will peak at around 1.4 million homes in mid-2010.
That deluge has persuaded some banks to start bargaining. In recent months, Wells Fargo & Co., Fannie Mae and Synovus Financial Corp. have negotiated a few transactions and have signaled to investors they might be willing to do others.
So far, no major lender has fully embraced the idea of selling in bulk. In many cases, they say prices that investors are demanding remain too low. The banks say they can get more money for most homes selling them through local agents. If investors buy homes and quickly flip them for a higher price, banks feel they have just let a middleman earn proceeds they should have been able to get on their own.
“We are getting a ton of bottom fishers,” says Barbara Desoer, president of mortgage and insurance services at Bank of America Corp., but the prices being offered aren’t attractive. Desoer says Bank of America, which this year became the nation’s largest mortgage lender by acquiring Countrywide Financial, isn’t doing bulk sales for now.
“We are getting a ton of bottom fishers,”
Proof positive that we are no where near the bottom.
Yep, my 10 cents on the dollar offers are not getting accepted… yet.
Are you really offering 10 cents on the dollar? What’re the responses, if not acceptance? Crying? Insults? Shock?
What?
Most are simply ignored, but on a few I’ve had some ‘insulted’ sellers give me an earful of cussin. I don’t care, I’ve lost nothing and eventually they will cave, just like the last bust. I’d imagine the listing agent gets the sellers all excited by saying that an OFFER is finally coming in. When they get the fax all hell breaks loose.
Will they sell houses in 6 or 12 packs at CostCo or Sams Club?
HAR!
Case lots!
Leigh
I have not seen much posted in the northeast in sometime. Here in Rhode Island home of the worst unemployment in the country houses are still propped up pretty high. Sure prices have fallen but it seems like they’ve only fallen 15 to 20% from peak. I cant help but think that this has to escalate shortly perhaps in 2009 as there will be fewer buyers do to layoffs.
Not what you want to hear, but I have Cali friends that just locusted a house in N.H.
These are the same people that last year bought an investment house in Rochester because homes there “are so cheap!”
I’m in eastern PA on business. Sunday night, I know, but restaurants such as Red Lobster, Ruby Tuesdays have little traffic. It’s 15 degrees outside for gosh sakes. The young good looking barmaid told me as much that the temperatures are keeping people out. Perhaps east coasters are late partiers. Depends on if it’s a city. I’m in Scranton. A small town otherwise would encourage me to wake up early and run a 5k.
Just back from a mini-vac in Sedona, AZ. Even in Shangri LaLaLand things are slow. Empty restaurants. Empty shops. Empty roads.
I got a massage and my therapist said there were only 4 full-time massage therapists at Enchantment Resort this Xmas season–down from 12 last year.
Things are tough all over–except maybe for New Frontiers (Organic grocery store). Sedona woo-woos still have some cash for chai tea and sage wands, I guess.
The only Hummer I saw was driven by a very grumpy SOB.
Here in MD I feel the same .. prices down on 10% or so … very high prices for new listings, yet houses on the market for 6+ months. Wonder when it will hit here.
Looks like the dueling is on going, there will be a bailout, bridge loan no doubt. The number is down to $15 billion now, which is a drop in the bucket compared to the depth of their problems. One bean counter, testified it would take more than $100-$125 billion to get them back on track.So I guess they’ll just keep putting their hand out every other month from now until forever…
Senator Christopher S. Bond, Republican of Missouri — who with Senator Carl Levin, Democrat of Michigan, proposed a plan last month that was nearly identical to the one Congressional Democrats have now endorsed — said he was pleased.
“I’m glad the Democratic leadership has embraced the principles of the Bond-Levin bill to hold auto companies accountable, protect taxpayers and save millions of American jobs as we head into the holiday season,” Mr. Bond said in a statement.
But Senator Bob Corker, Republican of Tennessee, who sharply questioned executives of Detroit’s Big Three auto companies at a hearing on Thursday, said he was unhappy with the way the plan seemed to be shaping up on the Senate banking committee.
“Based on the outline we’ve seen so far, we are disappointed,” Mr. Corker said in a statement. He reiterated his demands that the automakers make aggressive efforts to cut labor costs and reduce their overall debt obligations before receiving any aid.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/washington/07autos.html?_r=1&ref=business
there’s very little resistance to the auto bailout compared to financials.. white collar workers.. blue collar.. big difference.
“there’s very little resistance to the auto bailout compared to financials.. white collar workers.. blue collar.. big difference.”
That’s why AIG got $150 billion less than a week after asking but Detroit is forced to kiss the feet of Senators for months now?
Puleeese.
There was never any question about the Big 3.. they will be bailed out. Everyone knows this.
But to avoid appearing totally biased towards their (D) constituancy, the (D) congress is wise to make a big hollywood production out of it..
“We may not give you the money! We may just decide to let you go under and let 3 million blue collar voters lose their jobs and, if they starve, that’s just too bad!”
Puleeease..
Another socialist conspiracy?
Gotcha.
Is passionate hatred for the fat cat banker combined with infinite compassion towards the oppressed J6Pak worker class not a common socialist tendency?
It’s a common egalitarian, democratic, socialist and Christian perspective. So this communist conspiracy you’ve established relating to bailouts… how does your theory explain the bailout of AIG, devoid of debate or consideration? Are they not the evil masters characterized by your theory?
you left out marxist..
He would do well in Castro Cuba. Viva revolucion.
If Americans won’t buy their cars then why are we even bothering? Show me a yuppy that will drive a Buick or a Ford that isn’t an SUV. The entire focus needs to be on price and quality. If that can’t be the focus then the bailout will fail and be a bottomless pit.
I’ve been driving small Fords for years and years and years, but Ford is the one that supposedly would survive anyhoo.
Funny how that works. I gave up on VWs after owning three of them, and started buying Fords circa 1993. Perhaps they have absorbed some good ideas from their ownership of Mazda. The last-series Escort was a rebadged Mazda Protege. The SVT Contour I owned was a good car if they could have fixed the problems with the tranny.
VW’s are pieces of crap, at least until 2003. My sisters, and even my poor mother, kept buying these things for reasons unknown. Between the three of them, they’ve owned 7 or 8. If I had to list everything that went wrong with them, mainly Jetta’s, I would be here for hours. Some of the worst problems seem to be in the electrical systems. Money pits.
I bought a new Jetta VR6 in 2001. Biggest POS on the planet. Driving down I-287 and went over a bridge expansion joint (just a light bump) and the two rear windows came crashing down into the doorshell and shattered into smithereenies and that was just one problem with the junks. Got rid of that piece of EuroTrash in a hurry.
Funny you mention that, exeter. My mothers driver side window in her early 2000’s model Jetta VR6 keeps falling into the door. She has had to pay several hundred dollars, a few times, to fix a problem which apparently has no solution.
VW has none of the prestige of owning a MB or BMW, but are equally as pricey to repair.
They are still living off the “rep” for reliability the gained from the original Beetle.
Note to bloggers: A lot of the transmission problems people report on newer cars is due to either the owner or their repair shop servicing them with the WRONG TRANSMISSION FLUID.
You gotta use what the owners manual calls out…..you can’t say “they all use relabled DEXRON” anymore.
Test
“Note to bloggers: A lot of the transmission problems people report on newer cars is due to either the owner or their repair shop servicing them with the WRONG TRANSMISSION FLUID.
You gotta use what the owners manual calls out…..you can’t say “they all use relabled DEXRON” anymore.”
Yes, I read this elsewhere…
Don’t use aftermarket tranny fluid, EVER…even if the owner’s manual says it’s ok. Always use same brand fluid. Heard aftermarket fluids can have same specs, but can be “grippier” and cause tranny problems down the line.
DOC
Another kind of bailout -
JSOnline
Cars up in smoke as fraud rises
Snips
It’s another sign of hard times: Desperate to get out of car loans and leases they can’t afford, more cash-strapped consumers have turned to torching their vehicles, driving them into lakes or faking thefts.
And then they file an insurance claim.
—
It could cost an insurance company several thousand dollars to prove that a $15,000 car wasn’t really stolen. (Cont’d)
Dang,
It’s easier to pay than investigate fraud.
Sigh,
Leigh
Congress should keep their $15B appetizer and let the corrupt car boys go BK and restructure just like the steel and airlines did. Isn’t that what the BK courts were designed for?? I wouldn’t buy an American car if I knew they were on taxpayer life support.
Rarely am I a tin foil hat wearer, wbmz, but on this whole auto bailout fiasco, I more than qualify.
ONLY $15 billion, eh? Me thinks that the USSA government plans to keep the Big Three alive just long enough (January 20) for the government to nationalize them.
Anyone here who thinks that the USSA government led by B.O. would allow a heavily unionized, pro-government and anti-little guy industry such as autos to “fail” is a clod.
Let’s see…..a HUGE new socialist plan to rebuild “infrastructure” is a go, yet the USSA is going to let the Big Three go out of business?
The northeast continues its self-destructive ways as evidenced in the Boston Globe this morning:
Taxes Rise, Spirits Fall as State OKs Local Rates
To the rash of bad news about the state and national economy, add this dispiriting blow: Homeowners across Massachusetts are about to receive higher property tax bills, even as the real estate market sags.
But…it is different here….
Yep.
“Homeowners across Massachusetts are about to receive higher property tax bills, even as the real estate market sags”.
That’s all they know how to do, and they will keep right at it until some straw breaks the camels back. Then they will raise taxes in some other fashion/area. Our dimwits here in S.C. keep trying to raise the ‘hospitality’ tax( what a joke of a name). What’s hospitable about taxing?
And yet, Massachusetts loves Barney Frank!! What a bunch of losers in that state.
Newsday on Long Island has an editorial calling for reduced education spending. The education establishment (teachers, administrators, and whoever else) is going to have a pretty rough time.
Property tax bills really shouldn’t be affected by the real estate market. But, they are. People think that the town budget should rise and fall with house prices …. but there is no reason this is true.
We went to a party in May on Long Island. It was funny hearing the hostess of the party complain about their schools. I said I thought that Long Island had really great schools because of the high property taxes. She almost had an aneurysm. It’s one thing to get what you pay for. It’s another not to get what you pay for and see your house price go down. I’m guessing there’s a lot of anger on The Island.
From My point of view…Kids today are Ghettoized
Its the rap hip hop MTV language which is really making it easier for foreigners to get jobs in America. Imagine Indians even the Chinese speak better English then we do. And yes we need to get the minorities on board or else we will have to keep building more jails.
Why is reading writing and speaking English so politically incorrect today?
——————–
Newsday on Long Island has an editorial calling for reduced education spending
“… speak better English then we do.”… Can’t say we speak better English, but we sure write better English thAn you do
Anyway what’s this deal about Obama trying to get all kids online as a way to solve America’s education “problem”? Kids in India and China have to share computers (if they actually have access to one) and deal with piss-poor internet speeds. The issue with American kids not “learning” is not one of resources, it’s not even one of teacher quality, it’s one of motivation. The education “problem” will remain till someone gets this.
I have had the opportunity to witness school kids computer use quite extensively.
Their favorite searches are:
1. Beyonce
2. UFC/WWE
We were over @ a friend’s house and they had ponied up $45 to watch UFC, and I could only watch about 5 minutes of it.
All they’d really need to bring it up to Ancient Roman gladiator standards would be having America call in on a 900* number and give the defeated opponent the thumbs up (let him live) or thumbs down. (adios forever)
* a 95 Cent charge applies.
it’s not even one of teacher quality, it’s one of motivation ??
I think it’s the lack of enforceable discipline…Its possibly the reason the private schools ( at least around here) are so successful…
“All they’d really need to bring it up to Ancient Roman gladiator standards would be having America call in on a 900* number and give the defeated opponent the thumbs up (let him live) or thumbs down. (adios forever)”
LOL!!
Can’t remember which DVD it was, but George Carlin had some really funny ideas for “half-time highlights” at football games–along the same line as what your describing above…
DOC
It’s not true that Chinese people speak better English than “we” do. Speak for yourself, please.
Chinese people have a hard time learning English.
Humility is a good thing, and so is a welcoming attitude towards people from other countries. But there’s no need to go overboard.
Chinese people would never claim that any non-Chinese are “better at Chinese than we are,” simply out of nationalistic pride. If you want to learn from the Chinese culture, then one thing you can adopt is their attitude towards themselves and their country. They do not trash-talk their own countrymen.
Americans are not as stupid or uneducated as they are reported to be.
“They do not trash-talk their own countrymen.”
Well, as long as they aren’t Tibetan, perhaps. The vilification of the Dalai Lama and “the Dalai clique” by the Chinese Communist press is pretty shocking.
Kind of like the vilification of Chavez by our press?
I didn’t think you could take your non-sequiturs (sp?) to a higher level, but there you have it.
The question is only non-sequitur to the simplistic, dichotomous, western thinking where all elements of thought are sifted down to oversimplified, good guy/bad guy, black and white responses easily digested by laymen. It stands to reason your inability to respond to it. Read and study eastern thinking like the old testament prophets.
When I lived in Huntington, 60% of the tax bill was for the schools. With out reducing spending in the schools, there just isn’t much left that will have an effect.
New York is headed for much higher taxes, property, sales and income taxes. It should be a real miserable place to live and work, in a few years.
Still don’t see North Shore Nassau (premium area) prices dropping enough yet. I can tell you that in less tony areas where I live prices haven’t dropped much (may 10-15% in last year) but sales are sluggish from what I see. See lots of for-sale signs. House across street (typical 60 by 100 smallish split)was bought as estate sale for $300k, he fixed it up (floors, windows, cheap siding, etc. — not even a new roof), was asking $500k since summer. Now $480k, no buyers in sight that I can see… So disconnect between asking and what will actually sell. This in a town with median income in $75k range (very average for Long Island). Long Island has ALWAYS been above the 3X price/income numbers, but I am still hoping for a huge drop — especially in the “better” areas where prices went nuts a few years ago.
I think North Shore areas (Great Neck, Port Washington, Roslyn, etc.) still think it’s different there… I hope they are wrong in case I ever want to move there! But I have resisted for six years and will not not until sanity is restored (if it ever is). I read about California price declines with envy. New York is also awful for taxes of all sorts, as shown by some of the posts below about people finally waking up about school budgets.
Nice parts of Cali haven’t come down very much yet, Man on Long Island. The great implosion has begun, but it will take a while.
On this same topic, I was talking to a buddy yesterday, had no idea he had invested in real estate, told me he had lost 50K when a Huntington Beach developer absconded with his money. I couldn’t discern if it was a Ponzi scheme from the get-go, or if success turned to loss as the market turned south. It took a lot of effort not to scream IDIOT! through the phone.
I think North Shore areas (Great Neck, Port Washington, Roslyn, etc.) still think it’s different there… I hope they are wrong in case I ever want to move there! But I have resisted for six years and will not not until sanity is restored (if it ever is).
I grew up in Great Neck/ Flushing. In the last 30 years prices did fall in queens but then went up like crazy. My personal view about long island is demand vs. supply. At the present time, less than 10% of the population can afford a home in Nassau County. Even if prices drop a few percentage points, the competition for properties is enormous. I am waiting for a good crash in LI so that some of my family members can buy homes where they grew up.
Frank Giovannizi (?sp) recently posted a good data source for population losses and gains, by state and county, across the US. Should influence the ol’ supply and demand curve, right? The Census Bureau data on ‘net internal migration’ is available by county, and is updated annually. Don’t see the 2008 numbers yet, but for 2007, it reflects net losses of 140,000 residents for Nassau and Suffolk. The stats break out ‘international’ inflows and outflows - I would think this captures at least some portion of the illegal alien component. Withal, Nassau and Suffolk have a decrease. On a base of millions, probably a drop in the bucket. But IMHO you can’t argue the trend.
Again, credit goes to Frank G.
“Homeowners” should face higher taxes. They are the ones getting sweet things from the government. Let them pay for it. For those that rent out properties, I think they will find it hard to pass those costs along. The housing market is getting more and more twisted with every government move.
Oh, they’ll get higher taxes alright. The large northern cities and CA especially.
Taxes are the #1 reason that leads me to question if the equation of houseownership hasn’t fundamentally changed and that houseowning for the individual won’t make sense in many areas of this country again.
On what grounds can they raise prop. tax?
This would not work in california.
I wonder if these people can get a bailout or a bridge loan to help with the heavy bills.
Bring on the tax riots.
Bring on the tax riots ??
They may be coming in Cali..With the best jobs being in the muni & state services or the monopoly we call health care there is not much left for anybody else…White flight with there money will continue and raising taxes will just encourage more…It’s a huge train wreck and I haven’t a clue how it will end…
One consequence is likely to be municipal pension default. I think reneging on pension benefits has the best cost savings vs. public outrage tradeoff.
Of course it never has been the responsibility of the government to ‘create’ jobs. However the folks that operate in Washington D.C.P (dept. of central planning) don’t have the mental capacity to understand that.
“We won’t just throw money at the problem,” he said. “We’ll measure progress by the reforms we make and the results we achieve — by the jobs we create, by the energy we save, by whether America is more competitive in the world.”
Obama spoke a day after a government report showed employers in the U.S. slashed 533,000 jobs last month, the biggest decline in 34 years. The losses are “another painful reminder of the serious economic challenge our country is facing,” Obama said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aBcPiaRqqffg&refer=news
Then the failed mantra of “tax cuts creates jobs” was a hoax? I agree.
Thank you.
This one is long but it is a jewel.
http://tinyurl.com/6qm5vt
We used to get postcards from 25 Broad Street. Anybody buying there is going to get hammered. The William Beaver House is an abomination. I hope it fails miserably. Across the street is a homeless shelter. That seems appropriate.
The big key in the Financial District is how the WTC site pans out. Who will they possibly find to fill all of that space? If the dominance of NYC is gone then there will be big trouble if they add millions of square feet to an already glutted commercial environment.
It is great to read about The Masters getting caught up in their own machine. Something tells me they will have a much harder time dealing with poverty than somebody thats been poor all of their life.
That one is indeed a jewel. Thanks.
“The well-dressed wife of a Wall Street guy was standing behind me. She asked me how to get one. Then she said, ‘Have you ever used coupons?’ I said, ‘Sure, maybe not lately, but sure.’ She said, ‘It’s all the rage now—where do you get them?’”
That’s just priceless.
Food Emporium is the extraordinarily low-down on the supermarket totem pole, BTW.
Dean & Deluca or Balducci’s or Fairway or even Gourmet Garage, it most definitely is not. It’s only a step above Gristedes.
I think i told you about some of the worst layout I’ve ever seen…..the bathroom is right near the front door then you have to walk past the kitchen then the living room then the hall closets to finally get to the bedroom…
If you put the bathroom near the front door, people think that is the second bathroom that you must have an ensuite one in the bedroom. Oh, unless you keep non-guest stuff in the bathroom. Oops.
Thanks for that one, NYCBoy. I grew up a few doors down from Danny Loeb. Recently I bumped into his mom when I was home. I asked how the bazillionaire was doing. She said he was annoyed that everyone kept talking about his 45 million-dollar apartment. Every neuron in my alleged brain was firing off “well, then he shouldn’t have bought a 45 million dollar apartment!” But I like his mom, so I just nodded dumbly.
Wow,
Read some old articles about the turn of the 20th century rich families with their riches. Eerily similar. We sure like to repeat history.
This will confirm a lot that has been said here. It is harrowing.
http://tinyurl.com/5lb5xd
“Since 1945 post World War II, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States had always had a higher value than all household residential real estate wealth until, 1979.”
Real estate peaked at about $24 trillion. GDP is currently $14 trillion and headed down. It could hit $12 trillion or lower. That would indicate a 50% drop nationally.
I guess the putty-tat waiting for 1983 might be right. But I’m sure Robert Kiyosaki is ahead of the game. It will be sweet to see guys like him and Trump exposed for the tools they are.
Housing is an expense.
The smaller the expense, the larger the disposable income you have to spend on whatever it is you want to spend it on.
Isn’t this rather basic point obvious?
The maddening thing about the McMansion craze is just how severely it limited consumer choice. I never liked McMansion, never wanted a McMansion, and always have thought McMansions were overpriced, but so long as I live in San Diego, I don’t see many alternatives. So many resources were poured down the cookie cutter McMansion rat hole that there is little land available for building any other style housing.
HAR!
Come to Wisconsin - for 700K you can live up the butt (not cursing) of a neighbor seven feet from you and yours!
OH, with all of the 4500 + sq ft.
And all of this at the sake of farm land.
Sigh,
Leigh
Nope, no bubble in Rochester.
http://rochester.craigslist.org/apa/948192703.html
Some townhouse-like apartments (2/2) in Webster cost 1300 a month five years ago. I thought that was high.
Eastview Mall is starting a 50 M improvement project (note to self: ‘what are they thinking’ ). It already looks like a house of ‘worship of consumerism’, since the new entrance. More grandiose than any local church.
Maybe they now need to compete with Webster, since that’s been paved over for parking and retail.
I think we’ll know we’ve seen a bottom in the market, when this nonsense like this can no longer get published.
What does it take to kill of idea of your home as an “investment”?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/06/business/yourmoney/06money.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&em
“Five or 10 years from now, when the financial crisis has ended and housing prices are up smartly once more, we will look in the rearview mirror and realize that we missed a golden age for first-time home buyers. Then, everyone who sat on their down payment savings accounts for a few years too long will kick themselves for not taking advantage of what may turn out to be the buying opportunity of a lifetime for those who can qualify for a mortgage.”
A naive friend in northern NM asked me yesterday if she should buy the little pied-a-terre that she has rented in Santa Fe (owns a house much further east). I said buy it when the price is no more than 120x monthly rent. This was a totally new idea to her, and she seemed grateful for the guidance.
Every time I come across one of these articles that encourages people to buy I never see a quantitative analysis of when it would be a good time to buy. Never is there a discussion of how much of your income should be dedicated to housing or how much x monthly rent you should pay.
Homeownership is a religion to many people. There is no reason or logic involved.
“There is no reason or logic involved.”
This is true in so many aspects of life, hence the saying: “Knowledge is power”.
It is to early to talk about buying since in my area of Los Angeles, houses on Los Feliz area are still up 300% compare to year 2000. Rents are up 70%. We still have way to go to look for a logic in here.
I was reading an article which indicated some 10% of mortgages were at least 30 days past due. Apparently, even traditional 30 year mortgages are now in trouble as massive layoffs continue and the job market continues to flounder.
Under the new welfare programs being set up by the Federal Reserve, a borrower is better off skipping payments and quitting her job.
Don’t forgive that way!
By Casey B. Mulligan
December 5, 2008
“The U.S. Treasury has been creating a massive, but hidden, welfare program. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke urged its expansion on Thursday.
The program derives from the method by which the Treasury, federal agencies and now Bernanke have encouraged banks to forgive mortgage debts. It is off the books and without explicit congressional approval….”
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-oped1205forgivedec05,0,6266498.story
I’ve heard two people so far saying they had intentionally stopped making their mortgage payments so that their lender would agree to talk to them about renegotiating mortgage terms. Both people were having no trouble making their monthly payments, they simply wanted their principal lowered now that their homes are worth less.
This is so sad. I don’t like regulation, but seriously, in the state of Florida all variations of health care workers not related to their patients should be prevented from deeds and titles. This lady probably thought she had a friend. Surprise! Just another bloodsucker waiting for you to die.
“Home care, friendship, real estate make a messy mix”
http://www.tampabay.com/news/health/article928766.ece
She’s found someone trustworthy she wants to add to the deed instead: Tammy Armstrong, her new home health aide.
lmao
Dang! Did I get banned?
‘`’`'…He’s makin’ a list, checkin’ it twice…`’`'`
“D–g”
You mean, “Aw, shucks!”
OK financial gurus, what do we do from here? What kind of real jobs are there going to be in the future?
We all cant work construction jobs, and the massive amounts of freelance commission only “jobs” are flooding Craigslist and every other job board.
Everything is promote promote promote, Financial services are dead. Even Green jobs require plumbing to get the solar panels working.
The money wont be there for civil service jobs even teachers police and fire are going to have pay freezes at best.
And being mobile is probably the best idea but what if the GF never drove in her life, a true NYC girl?
I think it’s the end of the era for a lot of 4 year colleges , because what is needed for people like me is an intensive 3-6 month full time retraining into a new field say every 5years. I would love that idea.
It would be nice if real estate crashed enough so that small businesses could move back in without the need for massive capitalization from chains.
I’d rather see a local guy selling Lionel trains than a damn fast food hut.
So, for example, I’d like to see you have a little Zydeco storefront, maybe selling some accordions, choice vinyl, t-shirts, your services… like when Moon Ska had a storefront on the Lower East Side.
We need all that back.
“I’d like to see you have a little Zydeco storefront”
Resist NYCityBoy, I don’t want you banned!
I think it’s the end of the era for a lot of useless majors/departments at the 4 year colleges, as it should be. Those with e.g. good engineering and/or science departments will do well (maybe not as well as they did before, but they will survive).
I call those with useless majors people who have soft degrees. Took the minimum effort to get them, now, they will find out how much they are worth. Many teachers should be ashamed of what they are paid for having them. Thats not to say that all with hard degrees are fairly compensated.
“Took the minimum effort to get them, now, they will find out how much they are worth. Many teachers should be ashamed of what they are paid for having them.”
Why? Becoming a teacher is a field with near perfect information up front. It’s stable, duh!
Sounds like you have a grudge and a low-paying/hard degree.
“What kind of real jobs are there going to be in the future?”
One area that interests me is the the aging of the population. People wear out as they get old. Jobs/investments that address this fact should do well, IMO.
ne area that interests me is the the aging of the population. People wear out as they get old. Jobs/investments that address this fact should do well, IMO ??
Yep….My sis and her son are in the medical device industry…They each make 150k +….A couple of late twenty’s kids that I coached in youth sports are selling joint replacement equipment and are making a ton…
If you have 2yrs you can go into health care. I got out of telecom, and went into nursing. The good thing is people will always be sick, and knot sick like NYCityBoy, but ill.
Everyone and their brother is doing this is in New York. There’s a real nurse training bubble going on.
It is true that current supply can’t keep up with demand but that data is available to everyone, and everyone is jumping in.
I can confirm that Puss. 3 spouses of couples we know are in or have just completed LPN training. Their starting salaries in Westchester range from 45-60k/yr, full bens, no experience necessary.
My father died 2 years ago and i got my time helping a sick person. Sorry i really just cant do it.
I desperately need to be around smart people who have a future.
I am sorry to hear that you lost your father. You sound smart enough to start and run your own business. Many posters here have the employee mentality. To make good money and have a life style, a profitable small business can’t be beat.
What kind of real jobs are there going to be in the future?
‘
Homeland security jobs and Military
and Military ??
I kind of wonder a little about this…Do we really need all these ground troops and training bases in the twenty first century ??
The military will get more picker has the job situation worsens. When unemployment is low the military takes anyone that can hold a weapon, when unemployment is high, the military can pick and choose.
I can vouch. Son graduated with a B.S. in Chemistry. Could not find a “job”. After a year spent trying, living at home and ekeing out subsistance by producing and selling art, he enlisted in the Marines. The hard degree undergraduate has helped him ace every qualifying exam they have. He has leveraged his artistic talent into commission-only work, painting unit banners and insignia. He is a ’sound-body, sound-mind’ type of guy anyway, and is thriving on the 5 am runs and being part of a tribe of like souls. Civilian life has no demand, and no place, for a kid who is suited to rigorous physical training, no BS, and mission-driven objectives worked in teams. I am happy he found his niche: he is thriving and successful.
Jane,
Glad to hear about your son. My three years in the Army taught me a lot. I don’t regret enlisting and fulfilling my contract. It gave me breathing space to decide what I wanted to do with my life.
“…U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.5 million barrels per day last week, down nearly 1.5 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged nearly 10.0 million barrels per day, 17 thousand barrels per day below the same four-week period last year….”
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/txt/wpsr.txt
Curiouser and curiouser 4 week moving average is down only 17,000 bbls/day, and China imported 35% more oil in November than last year.
Maybe there is demand destruction, but I suspect it is probably Hedge Fund destruction that has destroyed the oil price.
Filling their strategic petroleum reserves, maybe.
“…probably Hedge Fund destruction that has destroyed the oil price…”
That has been both my working hypothesis and my hope all along. Ditto for the stock market crash. I love the smell of burning hedges in the morning.
I suspect less building of houses has a profound effect on oil demand.
Why??
Yeah, less consumption.
Er, something else.
Leigh
I never swear, i never smoke, i never drink.
Damit i left my cig at the bar!
One of my vavorites:
H E double hockey sticks!!
Oh and shat - I giggle on that one.
Leigh
You’re shattin me!
And let me guess, you never lie either
Anybody else take up gardening recently?
We’ve been growing veggies in our greenhouse, and it’s been fun and quite an education @ the same time…
I was initially hesitant to thin out things as they grew, but learned that if you have carrots growing too close to one-another, they don’t get any bigger and you end up with 5 Kate Moss-looking carrots, whereas by culling the herd-you end up with 2 full-sized ones.
And after having grown up on tasteless supermarket organisms, what a difference!
p.s.
I apologize to anybody that is offended by this off-topic Carrot Pimping…
Your project has a lot of downside potential.
Touche’
“I apologize to anybody that is offended by this off-topic Carrot Pimping…”
I’m *not offended* by your gold-pimping. I correctly identified it as the source/fuel of most of the inappropriate posts.
How about being sincere for once?
Go get a life.
“Go get a life.”
They’re tryin’ to take me luckee charmz!
Alad,
barbluvsong at yahoo dot com.
No kidding about growing things to close.
That’s how ya get baby corn cobbs.
Best,
Leigh
My last garden fed the groundhogs, rabbits and deer. My next one will probably be raided by my out of work neighbors.
“Anybody else take up gardening recently?”
I did it all summer, but gave it up for the winter. My rental didn’t come with a greenhouse and my cats will eat any green plant (even if its plastic). And yes, they get fed every day.
Spoke to someone at Johnny’s Seeds in ME. They said sales were great last season and already look good this season.
And after having grown up on tasteless supermarket organisms, what a difference!
No kidding, I tell people this all the time. I refuse to eat store-bought tomatos anymore (including at restaraunts).
I had a burger this summer from what they call a “dairy bar” in a very small town, basically a locally owned burger joint that you walk up to and order, like the place in Slingblade where he buys those fries with mustard.
Anyway, their sign said they only use local tomatos. They had the sign up b/c that was when the infected tomatos were coming from california or wherever, so it was to let people know they don’t have those. Anyway I normally ask for tomato to be removed, but since it was local I figured it would be fresh.
Man was that a good burger with a nice juicy slice of tomato. It was great.
No, no, alad! Gardens are great! So pimp your carrots, along with your karats!
I love gardening. I love my garden. Having a garden is maybe the main reason I decided to buy, because a really good garden takes years to develop. You can’t just plop down a bunch of petunias outta a ponypac from Home Depot and expect a thing of beauty.
You’ve got to get to know your soil, and what it needs, and where the sun falls at different times of year…then of course fruit and nut trees take a few years to get big enough to even produce anything.
This last summer when I’d get home from work I would take a wooden cutting board, my favorite big green- and- lilac bowl, a book, and a bag of chips out to my veggie garden bed and sit there on the grass happily mincing up tomatoes, green onions, basil, whatever, into salsa cruda, and then eat it all while I read or stared at trees. It was wonderful. Eventually the chips would be gone and I would have eaten so much that I would have to crawl laboriously back into the house like a giant slug. Also wonderful.
And you all know I wouldn’t shut up about my glorious tulips last spring…ahhh, tulips….
Gardens are where it’s at, man!
Me too - gardening and landscaping and futzing around fixing stuff are the real joy of owning a house.
I am picking bell peppers right now and should get tomatoes by January if we don’t get a frost (about a 25% probability). Also have a bunch of new tropical plants growing and just cleared another small patch for more planting.
Whether it’s two tomato plants or an orchard or Christmas tree farm - it’s all fun.
Just got a plot in the community garden ’bout a month ago. I was fifth on the waiting list six months ago. Now the list is fifty.
I cannot wait for tomatoes! Home grown fresh tomatoes, eaten when they’re still warm from the sun. Tomatoes are almost worth overpaying for a house for. But at least there are community gardens.
Today we are planting our winter vegetables. Mmmm, beets….
Most home gardens probably aren’t a money-saving strategy. People put too much money into tools, fertilizers, etc. and not enough time spent learning and weeding. Each head of lettuce they actually eat ends up costing $10.
“Gardening When it Counts” by Solomon is a good book on home vegetable gardening - I like his tradeoffs between money and sweat. Most gardening books are too extreme to one side or the other.
‘ People put too much money into tools, fertilizers, etc. and not enough time spent learning and weeding. Each head of lettuce they actually eat ends up costing $10.’
Now see, the problem is, you can be really stupid with a garden. My garden is for my enjoyment, and that’s how I plan and execute things, my overall goal is that it be easy and fun, and therefore I DO enjoy it, immensely, but my neighbor far down the street, he just kills himself doing stupid stuff in the name of gardening. His lawn appears to be almost the sole occupier of his awake time. It’s this flawless flat expanse of close-cut grass, like a golf-course, which is SO silly, because you know what? We live in the deep dark FOREST, man. There is no place prettier than how it ALREADY looks. Besides which, who is all the effort for? To show off his dominion of nature? He’s a hermit. A total recluse. Nobody even sees it, but he is out there fiddling and fussing away with chemicals and little devices and such crap. AND, he can’t even eat anything he grows!
Instead of flowing with the chi, fitting in in harmony, being a steward and a benefit to the place where he lives, and most importantly, having things be both easy and fun, instead he wages this incessant battle with…grass.
It’s sad, is what it is.
Plus, he flinched away in horror when I bounded out of the woods one day and offered him a radiantly beautiful clump of tangerine-orange chanterelles. I bet if they’d come in a plastic bag with a little sticker on them he’d have willingly paid 18$ a pound.
I guess my point is: Kids, don’t be dumba*sses when it comes to gardens. Be smart, like me.
You’re kiddin’!
He turned down chanterelles?!?
That’s a capital crime if I ever saw one. I’d have him beheaded in a micro-heartbeat.
‘That’s a capital crime if I ever saw one. I’d have him beheaded in a micro-heartbeat.’
1. It’s true.
2. And I’m thinkin’ about it.
3. And may I say, I approve of your style.
My sisters, mom and I grew a variety of heirloom tomatoes this year. Gawd, were they delicious. I loved the smell and taste of them. We will be growing them again in 2009. Nothing like the taste of home grown tomatoes.
BIg article here in the atlanta paper how renters are being punished for the foreclosures that are happening. Really sad, some of these renters are long term as much as 20 plus years in the same home.
http://www.ajc.com/search/content/metro/stories/2008/12/07/evictions.html
http://www.ajc.com/search/content/metro/stories/2008/12/07/evictions.html
Sad, for these long time renters…
A number of daily newspapers are suddenly for sale, which means the end is near for this form of information transfer.
I’ll miss getting my hands dirty, reading them.
The SD Union-Tribune Sunday paper’s advertising share by weight seems to be steadily increasing — I would guess it is up to 75 pct advertisement and 25 pct news by now. The Homes section, which used to be an ample and reliable source of housing bubble shadenfreude, has shrunk down to a couple of pages of lawn and garden stories. It is sad to see a newspaper gradually turn into fish wrap.
Schadenfreude (sorry for the German misspelling…)
Ich bin sehr offended!
Entschuldigen.
Daily fishwrap here in Cleveland laid off 50+. Now the talk is they will go internet for Monday and Tuesday. Maybe soon only Sunday edition.?
A sigh of relief from the forests…
you are right the Miami Herald is for sale
Well, I evaded the Utah border patrol*, made it through with no problems (thanks to Olygal’s prayers), and now all my stuff sits here surrounding me in my beautiful rental house, after being in storage for nearly two years when this saga began with my selling my house. I slept on my real bed last night and woke up feeling like a poser, like I would feel staying in a 5 star hotel. Nice bed, but after a squatter’s cot, it just feels kinda opulant. The dogs sure loved it, though (king size). Had to get up and turn the heat down, they were packed all around me, very cozy. For some reason I kept twitching and dreaming I was chasing rabbits.
I started opening boxes and found stuff I forgot I had. Kind of like Christmas early. Like, who would ever picture me owning a $30 Kitchen Aid can opener? Where did it come from? And real dishes and silver??? Wow. I’m retiring my Martha Stuart trash thingy (a plastic bag hanging from the frige) for a real step-on-it-to-open-the-lid metal trash can. Stylin’. I can now set my cup of mud on a real table instead of balancing it on my knee. Wow.
I’m posting this to remind everyone to be thankful for what you have. My past two years have included squatting, living in the back of my pickup (no hardship in the wilds of Utah), sleeping on the floor, and various crummy rentals. I’m now in a beautiful place - am I still sane is the question…
It’s gonna take some time, I know, but I think I can deal with this…ciVILEization here I come…for awhile, anyway, till the phone rings and it’s the call of the wild.
Utah border patrol* = the port of entry weigh station
Lost,
“The more stuff you have, the less you need” philosophy is being rethought by consumers in debt up to their necks, all over these 50 states, i’d suspect.
Yup, when I moved everything to Colorado, I had 3 storage units. When I returned it to Utah, there was one.
Deflation, I guess.
Shouldda just left it all here in the first place…I shouldda known I can’t live without fry sauce*.
*fry sauce: a unique Utah comestible made with a secret formula of mayo and ketchup
PS that secret formula is 1/2 to 1/2
Knowing the secret Mason handshake helps while stirring, you use the same method…enough said…
Lost,
What’s with the waffle obsession in the beehive state?
Every restaurant we ate at, had a do it yourself waffle machine on the table, it seemed…
Is there a pinky involved in that handshake?
‘Is there a pinky involved in that handshake?’
Well, I’m sure there is. Because the use of pinkies is elegant-like.
I don’t know nuthin’ and I ain’t revealing what I do know.
If you’re so busy handshaking yourself, how do you stir?
Mouth? Daniel Day-Lewis-style in “My Left Foot”?
This is a serious question.
Serious question: Who’s Daniel Day-Lewis?
Puddytat, this is Utarrr, where one always has multiple of everything.
(oh man, I crack myself up…)
That’s not exactly true about it being unique to Utah. Some Dude’s Fry Sauce is sold in all the grocery stores here in Boise.
http://somedudesfrysauce.com/store/
Great news, another place I can go visit and not be deprived…
I quit my last job in June 2005 in order to (1) prepare my house in San Jose for sale by performing 20 years worth of deferred maintenance caused by working 50-60 hour Sillicon Valley jobs and (2) getting rid of 25 years worth of accumulated clutter. The second task was the more difficult. I spent over 6 months performing these tasks. At least I was able to get everything into one 24 foot U-Haul truck. Amazing how easy it is to just stick some unwanted trifle into a box in the garage.
you could write a book about your adventures
” how to survive the housing bubble in the wilds of Utah “
Great idea! I’ll call it “How to Survive the Housing Bubble by Living Outdoors” or something like that.
Must be more regional, haven’t seen any down here in the SE part - Olygal know anything?
‘Well, I evaded the Utah border patrol*, made it through with no problems (thanks to Olygal’s prayers),’
I’m there fer yer, baybee!
I loved to read about your moving story, losty, and I’m glad everything went well. Also I’m excited because now maybe we can hear more of you, since you have a real table you can put your laptop on, and the comforts of a real bed and real trashcan may keep you lured away from wandering in the wilderness quiiiiiite as much.
Plumbing was what called me out of the wilderness long ago. Yes, hot baths with mounds of bubbles and a pink loofah. Also ice-cream and boys. These are what lured me into civilization.
Oh, what a pipe-dream. I can very easily imagine you trying to post when your fingers have been frozen to the sides of an ice-cave. You’d just type with your nose or dictate to a doggie.
Anyway, glad all is well and you have stuff to play with for awhile.
Thanks, Oly. You made me remember an effete Boulder friend with a fake French accent (she spent many years in France but was from Cincinnati) who once asked me about my lifestyle outdoors: “How do you ever live without a big soaker tub with nice Dead Sea salt crystals? How can you stand it?” LOL
Okay, I know many of you were expecting this day to come, now it’s here. Mainland-Chinese investors are traveling to the U.S. on organized tours to buy what they think is bargain-priced real estate:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-chinahomes7-2008dec07,0,6321372.story
I can’t picture this ending well, on any level.
Isn’t this what the Japanese did in the early 90s? IIRC, they got burned pretty badly.
There seems to be this idea that we can sell our extra houses to foreigners. They obviously havent talked to any foreigners who have tryed to come to our country recently. Homeland security can turn away any tourist at the border for any arbitrary reason and the decision is often final. Tourists from europe now have to get a visa with fingerprints. We really have a great way of welcoming the people who are supposed to save our housing crisis.
Who is going to want to buy a $300,000 house half a world away, when there is a real chance they could be denied entry into the country to actually visit it.
Oh, but you can always rent it out.
A local Realtor I know who is Chinese is doing lots of business selling to Chinese here in the Portland area. “They’ve got savings” and “it’s a great time to buy!”
We’ll see.
Bank of England mulls “nuclear option” of cash injection.
The Bank of England is working on radical plans to inject cash directly into the economy - the nuclear option to be used only when interest rates approach zero.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/interestrates/3551328/Bank-of-England-mulls-nuclear-option-of-cash-injection.html
WOW - this is going to hurt for a looong time.
Leigh
I agree with Palmetto, the UK might just be the root of all evil.
What’s funny though, is to watch these Western nations act like they still run the joint when it’s pretty obvious that over the long term it is Asia that is on the ascendency.
Western governments better wake up and stop trying to revive the 20th Century.
TIPS 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr 20 yr
11/28/08 4.17% 3.78% 2.60% 2.98%
12/05/08 1.79% 1.98% 2.23% 2.40%
What a friggin ride. Got TIPs?
What does that suggest about deflation?
Don’t worry…be happy…
Obama Says Economy Will Worsen Before Recovery Begins
By Edwin Chen
Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) — President-elect Barack Obama said the economic crisis will worsen before a recovery takes hold, and the government must act swiftly to stimulate job creation.
“Things are going to get worse before they get better,” Obama said in an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press” program broadcast today.
Obama, who takes office Jan. 20, said his advisers are still working to determine the size of the economic stimulus package needed to pull the country out of the longest recession since 1982. “But it is going to be substantial,” he said, without giving an estimate.
While calling the federal budget deficit he will inherit “enormous,” Obama said economic recovery is more important, “and that means that we can’t worry, short term, about the budget deficit.”
It’s not his call to worry about the deficit - it’s the call of those who buy our debt.
Got CDs? (Not the round, shiny discs)
One should ask to what extent yields are currently set by “the bond market” (reflecting the collective judgments of a large number of individual participant’s purchase and sale decisions) versus a couple of 800 lb gorillas with extreme market power. It also seems like TIPS yields should be compared to those on a close substitute with respect to default risk, which is the duration spectrum of fixed-coupon T-bills/notes/bonds:
T-bills/notes/bond yields @12/05/08
3mo 6mo 12mo 2yr 3yr 5yr 10yr 30yr
.01% .20% .52% .92% 1.17% 1.69% 2.70% 3.13%
Though yields are extremely low, there is also a strong apparent preference for the shortest duration.
For direct comparison, consider the yields on TIPS versus T-bonds at matched maturities:
TIPS T-bonds
5yr 1.79% 1.69%
10yr 1.98% 2.70%
Interpreting these numbers at face value as reflecting the beliefs of bond market participants, it looks like there are slight expectations for deflation over the next five years (why else would I be willing to take a 10 bps discount on my 5-year T-bond relative to the TIPS yield?) but an expectation that inflation will return from 5 to 10 years out (reflected in the 72 bps yield premium on T-bonds relative to TIPS in the 10yr bonds).
Along the right idea, but the other way to interpret the data is ~4% deflation for 1 yr, then inflation.
However the correct way to interpret the data, the TIPS have a guaranteed upside if inflation and no downside if deflation. Heads you win, tails you win.
There are spreads available that every major hedge fund would have dreamed of doing 18 months ago. It is really scary that the US Treasury bond market has become illiquid.
Has anyone cooked up a term structure model which reflects both TIPS and l-t T-bond yields (under the optimistic assumption that market manipulation does not totally destroy the information in prices)?
It would change too quickly daily.
Of course, that’s how some of us make money so I doubt you’re gonna just find it sitting out there.
Note that traditionally, a 3 pct inflation risk premium has been priced in to the long minus short end of the T-bond yield curve, and this is what you see today. Further, since TIPS are, by construction, insured against inflation, a TIPS yield equal or slightly below the T-bond yield at the same duration is consistent with expected deflation over the duration horizon. The interesting question is to what extent the picture is clouded by strategic intervention by 800 lb gorillas.
If the TIPS are under the US Ts, that signifies inflation. aka. pay up for future appreciation.
The TIPS rallied 8% last week because there was no downside risk relative to US Treasuries. Buy TIPS short Treasuries.
The TIP yield is guaranteed at your purchase price with only upside potential.
Mopes bought US Treasuries, PIMCO and others bought TIPS and sold Treasuries. A huge mispricing by the market that resulted in billions and billions of dollars changing hands last week.
“A huge mispricing by the market that resulted in billions and billions of dollars changing hands last week.”
I find it implausible that there are that many stupid people with buckets of gambling money to dump into T-bonds. How do you know it is not those meddlesome 800 lb gorillas messing with the price signal?
PB,
When I find a great position in an illiquid market, I do not advertise it until I have as much on as I feel comfortable holding.
I advised all on this site to buy the TIPS. They were incredible steals. Each $1MM spread (short Treasuries/long TIPS) required $4,300.00 to maintain to make $42,000. 10 days ago, it became impossible to short US Treasuries, no liquidity. Those holding long bonds realized the spread implications last week, the spread dropped to zero.
I love worries about deflation. People are stupid.
Yep, I remember your recommendation, hoz.
Good call. Thank you for your insight!
I don’t understand TIPS too well so I don’t buy them. The adjustable part always seems way to low for reality.
TIPS trade at big discounts now even though fixed treasuries are way up.
agree, we have something similar to TIPS in Europe and it has been a very bad investment right from the start because the rates are artificially manipulated.
Right now I am happy with 4.5% on a fairly normal internet savings account (from a state-owned bank, so supposedly very low risk). If the situation changes a few months from now, I will reconsider where to park my money but at least I don’t have to make any guesses now about future inflation numbers, treasury rates etc.
GAIL MARKS JARVIS
Possibility of deflation is growing
December 7, 2008
The unnerving word of the day is “deflation.”
It’s the watchword in countless reports recently from economists and investment strategists. As Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg said in a note to clients last week, “If there is a message coming from the markets, the data and the Fed-speak of late, it is the growing risks of deflation.”
Wish I was even a bit as smart as you market guys, but won’t BenB. make sure that doesn’t happen at all costs? Won’t he indeed, flood the world with as much paper as necessary to get this train rolling, inflation be damned?
Oh yeah — he started trying this already back in Aug 2007. It’s called “pushing on a string,” and it ain’t working, as California home prices have since cratered by more than 40 pct.
While back in Colorado yesterday, I had lunch with some good friends. The conversation came around to skiing (as usual) and I announced that Vail had just had a layoff.
I watched two of my friends exchange knowing glances with knowing subtle smiles. So, I said, all knowingly, you wanna hear about all the layoffs around the country everywhere?
Everyone just started cracking up.
This is significant, because it used to be they all changed the subject and refused to talk about the economy. And actually hated me, I think, maybe, anyway, at least while I was talking. This time they were actually smiling. This is big, I think…and they even bought my lunch!
I’m going back to Colorado
rollin’ down the highway
just my life to carry
it’s written in the wind
again
I will drink from the river
that runs down from the mountain
just my life returning
I feel it in the wind
again
–The Ozark Mountain Daredevils–
Nice song, but DO NOT drink from that river. My brother did last summer and nearly died of giardia. True story (nah, we won’t go there about his intelligence…).
You know what, Losty, some people don’t get giardia. Or at least, they are asymptotic. I know that because I used to eat some of the water down in Escalante.
Yes–I said ‘eat’.
* shudder*
Oh, look! It’s civilization! I think I like it!
I rarely use a water filter in the High Sierra…
It’s all about knowing where the springs are, and they are everywhere, but you have to know where to look.
‘It’s all about knowing where the springs are, and they are everywhere, but you have to know where to look.’
That’s a nice thought. Man, that’s like a Thoreau-ey!
I just go ahead and club water into submission and eat it, when I get thirsty.
Of course, this is before I got civilized. I’m fancier nowadays.
“You know what, Losty, some people don’t get giardia. Or at least, they are asymptotic.”
Thats right werid huh
You’ve got some really good friends in this instance, Losty. Seriously. Be sure to keep ‘em!
They were very likely smiling because they knew you’d be serving crow as a side dish (they talked about it with each other before meeting you for lunch). They have recognized you were correct all along and now have publicly acknowledged it by buying you lunch.
You’re right, it IS big where these two were concerned. You should follow it up with a platter of graciousness (’cuz Santa is watching!) and more helpful hints, communicated modestly.
Nah, I’m just gonna smack em next time I see them.
Whatever happened to your writings? I enjoyed those from afar.
Bring ‘em on, woman!
Say, has anyone heard about the Republic Window factory takeover here in Chicago?
Republic Window aburptly shut down and the workers have now peacefully taken over the factory in an effort to get vacation pay and other wages owed to them.
It’s pretty low key, but it shows that the peeps are getting fed up. When one considers that the pols have run up a significant deficit already - events like this do become more significant.
Yeah, I read about that.
But the firm is BK, right? Where are the wages going to come from?
It was on the local news here.
Becuase the company didn’t give a 60-day notice that they were closing, and the union is mad.
The timing is about right, and the public has just a vague idea of the the financial sneak-attack that has been perpetrated on them, on their supposedly safe financial harbors…
A daze that will live in infamy.
It’s all good…for those who have sent their carriers to sea.
Daddy-o aladinsane was quite a wheel in the stock biz in L.A. in the 1960’s, and he worked with a fellow whose father was very highly placed in the military circa 1941, and he claimed that FDR knew all about what was coming, according to his dad.
I will go to the grave believing that he knew. He also knew what the Lusitainia was carrying. Of course those history books aren’t very popular, and after all, a nation needs it’s “heroes”.
Met a retired Army officer in Homestead Fla at a tropical plant sale in 1981. While waiting in line he told me about his days at Pearl working for an intelligence unit. With near tears in his eyes he asked no one in particular why they ( Navy) werent told of the attack. He stated they (Army unit he was in) knew it was imminent; they were watching the Japanese embassy burning documents. His wife, a bit ahead, came back and pulled him away saying ” you know youre not supposed to talk about that…”
A section of Highway 99 is called “The Pearl Harbor Survivors Memorial Highway”.
It sounds kind of weird, not a memorial for those that perished, but lived.
My grandmother, Nana, and great-grandmother (three people; long story) were in Pearl City when it was attacked. My mother transcribed Nana’s diary entry and g-grandma’s letter to her husband. The letter makes the comment “Officers having no duty were home, others out ‘fishing’, etc. Like Fred and Allan—so guess they got the word from their spies.”
I think she was of the opinion that they knew it was going to happen. Freaky stuff.
Fascinating link and post. Thank you very much, B. Durbin.
What if Obama opened up imigration, conditional on the purchase of a median or higher priced house using all cash?
it would just be a drop in the bucket
This suggestion has been discussed before. It’s fault is, like so many other “solutions”, it treats houseownership and gainful employment as mutually exclusive events.
Say they did that, where would all these new peeps work? Would they displace existing citizens? If so, where would those people work?
Everyone’s talking about buying a house but nobody’s talking about going to work.
Conditional H-1B’s?
Not going to work.
Would you buy a house if you could be deported six years later? I didn’t think so.
And if they did, a small “cottage industry” of borderline fraud would open up around it with funny contracts that allow you to “own” a house without actually “owning” it, etc. Like all govt. redistribution mandates, it can’t work.
This all comes back to the book i’ve been pimping, “The Collapse of Complex Societies”.
Because everybody got their fingers burnt by the housing bubble, all over the industrial world (1st world), there is nobody around to pick up the slack.
Look at the fall of communism. It was a pretty smooth ride from totalarism to consumerism, an easy segue from the past to the present, as there was no vacuum of power, capitalism just took over.
Besides, right now, we need the emergingand fragile middle class of nations like Pakistan and India to just stay put. They are the only hope that keeps those nations from doing anything rash to one another.
like buy a US home, become US citizen and take responsibility for your $ 500.000 or so chunk of the national debt load?
I don’t think foreigners who can pay cash would be interested, except maybe if it is all black money …
Economic journalists seem to favor the prospect of 4.5pct mortgage rates for everyone, somehow forgetting that interest rates that fail to reflect default risk effectively shut down private sources of mortgage loans. I guess the govt can always collectively tax all of us to coercively provide funding for other peoples’ housing purchases, so no worries there…
DEAN CALBREATH
Mortgage ‘fix’ not helpful to troubled homeowners
December 7, 2008
…
“Once again, the government’s not addressing the problem head-on by trying to reduce foreclosures,” said Kurt Eggert, a former member of the Federal Reserve’s Consumer Advisory Council who teaches law at Chapman University in Orange. “This stimulus is coming to the people who need help the least. The people who need help the most – the people who got stuck with subprime loans – are getting the least amount of help.”
That’s been a pattern that the Treasury Department has followed for much of the past year.
Since June, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson has crafted more than $1 trillion worth of bailout plans for Wall Street investment firms and major banking institutions. But for some reason, he has been gun-shy about providing direct aid to homeowners who are struggling to pay off nonsensical loans that were offered by the very firms that have gotten bailouts.
Paulson has balked at suggestions that banks should be forced to modify their loans to troubled homeowners. Instead, he prefers a kind of “trickle down” approach – lend to the institutions so they can lend to borrowers and revivify the market. But the institutions have not been lending. Instead, they have been keeping the money in their coffers.
Stan Sexton, owner of Homsell/New Horizons Realty in La Mesa, said the push to lower mortgage rates is at least a step in the right direction.
“So far, the Treasury Department’s been playing with Wall Street, not Main Street,” he said. “This is one of the first things that would actually hit consumers, although it will do little for troubled borrowers.”
A 4.5 percent mortgage rate could bring some new blood into the market.
“I’d have to look into buying a house myself with those kinds of rates,” said Del Mar financial consultant Rich Toscano, a longtime renter who has refrained from buying a house because the local market seems overpriced.
Gee, I can “own” an asset of declining price for only 4.5%?!?!?!
Such a deal! Sign me up!
in most of Europe fixed term mortgage rates (5-10yr) are below 4.5% now for less risky borrowers, and governments are trying all kinds of instruments to force rates lower in order to keep the housing market afloat (the major problem in most of the EU is decline in sales numbers, not price declines).
But I doubt it will work because only people with no skin in the game (or those who are totally clueless, maybe there is still years of supply for that kind) will be lining up to buy a (soon to be) depreciating asset. Sales are plunging, not because the money has ran out but because the market psychology is changing. Lowering the monthly cost will not change the psychology.
It might slow the downslide in Europe though, because lots of ARM loans reset the coming year, and those people can now refinance into a fixed loan at relatively low rate.
NHZ,
I really enjoy your posts…it makes me realize that it isn’t just dumb Americans that are obsessed with property–although I still believe Americans are probably the most clueless.
Anybody else heard about this? If true, this is HUGE.
Rumor from Market Ticker:
RED ALERT! China and another nation (Korea?) are going to intentionally devalue their currencies within days by 30-35%.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/674-Aw-Crap-Told-You-So-Again.html
Hoz, if this is true, you might change places with Jas pretty soon. Care to comment?
It wont work.
They are both exporting countries that seem to think it’s a matter of price, that their goods aren’t selling here.
Buggering one’s own currency seldom pays off…
That it won’t work is clear.
But in the short term, it’ll set off a furious reversal of the various dollar-based carry trades. The market would crash, and they’d get severe inflation to boot.
not only that, it would probably create lots of unforeseen troubles with other behind-the-curtain bets. I guess AIG would be in need for a couple of hundred billion extra very soon.
“It won’t work.”
Since when does this matter for the people that set policies?
If it sounds good to sheeple and gives evidence that the wonks are doing all they can to save the world, it works.
“And they healed the pain of my people disgracefully, saying: Peace, prosperity, when there was no peace or prosperity.” Jeremiah 6:12
Nice, clue.
And nice to see you’ve recovered your faculties, as well.
Seriously, Jeremiah is one of my favorites. Nice and doom- laden. Also I like the ‘Song of Solomon’, because it’s pretty and a lot of it makes no sense.
Job is a good one as well. My daughter is going to give a church talk on Job in a couple of weeks — I cannot wait!
‘Job is a good one as well. My daughter is going to give a church talk on Job in a couple of weeks — I cannot wait!’
Me neither! I want a transcript. I love Job.
Interesting note on the recession affecting pricing. While we all understand the historical relationship between housing and rents and the reversion to the mean, I just got my lease renewal on my door today. I am already paying below market rent because I pay on time and have been in the same place for 3 years, but usually get a slight increase each year. I was offered one month’s free rent. Not uncommon for new tenants, but has never happened to me before on a renewal, and I try to negotiate each year. This year, I didn’t even ask. If rents are falling, so must equilibrium housing prices.
Something similar just happened to us in DC. This is from a rental agency that should be firmly in the black, as the newest properties were bought/built in the 80s. But, they’ve been having an unusual amount of vacancies lately, and we are good tenants, so it looks like they are trying to preemptively keep us.
Northern Virginia also - unbelievably, my lease renewal came up, with ZERO increase. I was loaded for bear. Took all the wind right out of my sails. Didn’t even have a chance to go for a 10% reduction before I signed. Just goes to show ya - contrary to my cherished imaginings, I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer. Course, my children could have beat me to that punch.
Mauldin wrote a good piece on the velocity of money regarding the inflation/deflation debate. In short, although money supply increased substantially, turnover decreased. IOWs, although there is a lot more money on the shelves, demand has falling off a cliff. There is little will to borrow and use it.
The distribution chain is broken. Subprime lending industry blew up. As a result, unlike the bidding wars we witnessed yesteryear for homes that drove prices higher and higher, transactions have slowed to a crawl. Maniac buying has ceased. People are coming to their senses. The jig is up.
Have you heard any of the bailoutMavens discuss these inconvenient truths about mortgage market reality? I have not.
PB,
About your comment whether the Fed knows about the derivatives bets, that is anybody’s guess.
But the bets are common knowledge, and there have been many articles about them in the press.
Buffett’s 15-year European-puts on four indices are basically a bet of that form.
I wanted to add that your comment about these side bets being entirely unproductive is totally accurate.
After all the FIRE sector going from 16% of S&P to 30% was not accidental.
Derivatives bets are zero-sum.
HELLOOOOOOO?!? Anybody home at the Fed?
It seems like the Fed is going to great lengths to destroy incentives for productive economic decisions, while advantaging behaviors which the unfettered free market would severely punish. If productive activities are sufficiently disadvantaged for long enough, the flock of geese that lays golden eggs will either die or fly away.
Everything works much better when wrong decisions are punished and good decisions make you rich.
–Anna Schwartz–
That’s why this is going to end very badly. There is a failure to understand that productive stuff counts and side bets don’t.
The FIRE sector is at best a service sector. That it has a leading role in this economy can only lead to a complete disaster.
Did anyone catch Obama’s latest speech? It is so nice to have adults back in charge, even if it isn’t official until January 20. I really missed it the last 8 years!
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=3906861&cl=10983021&ch=4226716&src=news
I like everything he said.
Your comment reminds of a journalist who asked Mayor Michael Bloomberg what he thought about the election results. It went something like “I didn’t endorse anyone but I’m happy that we’re going to have adults in the Whitehouse again”.
Sad but true.
I think what the last 8 years have shown is that competency is the most important job qualification, with political ideology being a distant second. The people that wanted to ban abortion or gay marriage, and thus voted Republican, have very little to show for their votes.
imho, tough times call for strong leadership. Hardnosed, commanding, demanding, Do-this-or-else kinda leadership that either inspires or frightens people into following directions..
While it was a nice political speech in the sense that it alienates a bare minumum number of voters, I come away neither inspired nor frightened.
But maybe our problems are not all that serious to begin with.
Anyway, he sure ain’t no Judge Judy.. i dunno if we should be thankful for that or not.
Talk is cheap. Carrying it out is dear. ant wait ’till summer.
ant = Can’t
“Kurt Eggert, a former member of the Federal Reserve’s Consumer Advisory Council ”
I am not a “Consumer” I am first and always a CITIZEN.
I can not tell you how far off the deep end I go when I read or hear that word CONSUMER! All the people around me know I will go off if they say they are or anyone we know are consumers! We are Citizens NOT consumers.
Those in power use consumer as a form of mind washing. They are afraid of the citizens but not “consumers”
cit·i·zen
: an inhabitant of a city or town ; especially : one entitled to the rights and privileges of a freeman
Consumers have NO rights or privileges and are NOT FREE. It can be in any city or town
cit·i·zen
a member of a state b: a native or naturalized person who owes allegiance to a government and is entitled to protection from it
Consumers are not members of anything but debt. Consumers have no allegaince to anything but consumption. Consumers are entitled to NOTHING.
cit·i·zen
: a civilian as distinguished from a specialized servant of the state
Consumers are NOT civilans but are specialized at consumeing, using EVERYTHING for or against the state, they are servants of anything or anybody that will allow it to continue to consume.
Sorry for the rant I just am sick of the Consumer and ALL of the ones that think a Consumer is more than it is.
Consumer
: one that consumes: as a: one that utilizes economic goods b: an organism requiring complex organic compounds for food which it obtains by preying on other organisms
The only part of this that matters to ones in power is “one that utilizes economic goods” That’s it. The powers that be care about NOTHING ELSE.
Debt is another persons wealth, credit is just waiting to become debt
Amen!!!
Was just scanning the latest issue of Consumer Report. An article titled “A rescue plan for the rest of us” caught my eye. It seems a survey of 2000 adults came up with these recommendations. Reduce the national debt; ensure the financial health of the social security program; protect pensions and other retirement accounts; increase spending on energy exploration, efficiency, and alternative energy; ensure affordable health care for all; increase regulations on financial institutions; extend federal insurance to all deposits in savings and money market accounts; and my favorite, wait for it, Cut Taxes for Working Americans. When are people going to get it?
Not going to happen.
A quick perusal of the promises made divided by the size of the US adult population gives you all you need to know (= ain’t happenin’.)
But it just has to. Are You trying to tell me that Consumer Report is wrong.
I’m making a much stronger claim - that Consumer Reports doesn’t know how to do long division.
Your right. Now that I think about it, I’ve yet to see Consumer Report’s take on calculators. Or even archive reports on adding machines.
Long division is such a useful operation. I am surprised more economists have not discovered it.
It is the single most useful technique when playing the financial markets too. It’s a shame that it’s not more commonly known.
You’d think they’d teach it in school or some such, but no!
I have said this many times many ways, but I will say it again for good measure. Condos always crash farther and faster than SFRs in a real estate bust. When there is a condo glut, with many identical units on the market, sellers have no market power, as if they try to raise their price, there will be many identical units available to buy at a lower price.
This time may be different, though, given myriad McMansion tract home developments with cookie-cutter similar models. A glut of similar units in tract home developments could result in a similar larger-than-average crash, due to the effect of close substitutes on destroying sellers’ pricing power.
Condo calamity
Speculators snapped up converted units at Cityscape in Normal Heights, but now most dwellings are bank-owned or in default
By Mike Freeman
STAFF WRITER
December 7, 2008
The housing bust has spawned thousands of tales of staggering declines in home values in San Diego’s foreclosure-ravaged neighborhoods. But few local projects have suffered as much carnage as the Normal Hights condo conversion Cityscape.
EARNIE GRAFTON / Union-Tribune
Real estate agent lockboxes hung on the gate of the Cityscape condo conversion in Normal Heights. One- and two-bedroom units are selling for 70 percent less than they did when the condos went on the market starting in late 2006.
Units started selling in late 2006 and early 2007, one-bedrooms for $237,000 and two-bedrooms for $345,000. Today, of the 70 condos in the flat-roofed, nearly 40-year-old complex, 66 have been taken back by lenders or are in default, the first step of the foreclosure process.
One-bedrooms are reselling for an average of $66,900 and two-bedrooms for $94,200 – down more than 70 percent from the original prices.
That’s more than double the 31 percent drop in San Diego home values overall since early 2007.
To set the record straight, these were not really condos, but rather so-called “condo conversions” — apartments dressed up with a new interior, granite counter tops and stone facing to masquerade as condos. I just thought of a new name for these condo-apartments: CONpartments.
Halftime.
Ok Tongue in cheek, the bottom of the recession will be July 17, 2009. My granddaughter wants me to take her to see the new Harry Potter movie on that day. The recession that started in Dec, 2007 would have started in July, 2007 if the Newest Harry Potter movie and book had not come out (see July/August 2007 retail sales with and without the Harry Potter effect).
Its magic.
Tell her that a new book is out so that resets the recess-is-on clock.
Impossible. Cowboys have not even kicked off.
Whats the title of the Book thats gonna be a movie?
Harry Potter and the Cash Strapped Oil Prince.
staring Prince Ala-walla-we-need your money.
Please.
It’s Alla-walla-willa-wonka-need-money-for-weed.
hey man, you’re the one with the 5 Martini and a hazelnut biscotti chaser problem
dont go dragin down Prince Alla-walla-want-a-SUV-wonka
Which reminds me that I need a martini (or three) and a hazelnut biscotti might hit the spot too.
Mmmmmmmmmmmm.
One of these days, vozzie, when the Mrs. is on one of those perrenial Euro-shopping trips, you’re gonna be wishing that you were me.
light bulb just went off.
From Spartacus:
Crassus, Sir Laurence Olivier, in the hot tub with Antonius, Tony Curtis….and action!
“Snails or Oysters”
Not that there’s anything wrong with that.
Probably the funniest scene ever.
Hoz,
my condolences on todays gridiron battle.
DOWN GO PACKERS!!!
But on the bright side…..the Honolulu Blue is only 3 games from perfection…..go Lions!!!
The Bills slipped under .500
Been there, done that so many times…
Cowpokes stumbled over their own @#$#%’s.
Chalk one up for Big Ben!
DOWN GOES ROMO…
HBB folks have been discussing the possibility of putting homeless people into foreclosed homes for some time. Here’s an interesting article from the WaPo about Miami - a new kind of real estate agent doing just that, and the police don’t mind a bit.
Illegal Activism: Moving Homeless People Into Foreclosed Houses in Miami
That last quote is interesting - it indicates that mortgage buyers have gone from being clueless (and not caring) about who is buying the house, to the same for who is moving into the house after foreclosure. In large part I’m sure it’s due to just being overwhelmed. It doesn’t help that the banks who own these homes are laying off 10’s of thousands of people.
I suspect that eventually one of Rameau’s “clients” will manage to burn down half a city block, killing a few people, due to nodding-off while cooking dinner.. or smack.. or just to get warm.. and these compassionate city leaders will then be forced against their will to put dear Rameau in jail..
Rameau? Like the French baroque opera composer?!?
WOOOOOOO!!!
This would make such a great baroque opera, harpsichord and all.
Ram eau? Isn’t that French for “scent of a male sheep”?
Now he tells us:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/08/us/politics/08obama.html?hp
(NY Times story: “Obama Warns of Further Economic Pain”)
I thought once the Messiah™ was elected, it was going to be all roses and rainbows and white dancing ponies.
What happened?
My wife was at the local market, and the proprietor told her something most interesting….
Sales are off by about 1/2, and an ever-growing amount of customers are paying in coinage~
OK, I went back and read yesterday’s bits bucket.
Ben, I’m amazed at your patience (shakes head). Now I get the swan thing and Vozzie’s Santa hat post and everything, though I’m not sure my life is better for it. LOL
(Chip, if you’re out there, I’m now in Mtn Bike Mecca.)
PS Does anyone want a $30 Kitchen Aid can opener?
Why?!? Doesn’t the regular manual one work well enough?
It would waste extraordinarily precious counter space here in NYC. The rest of the country has plenty, I know. *sniff*
Besides, who eats out of cans, anyway? *sniff sniff*
Puddytat, this IS a manual one. Not electric. You can stick it in a drawer. I have no idea where it came from, I would never buy anything like that. Let me know if you want it, it’s brand new, white.
Wait a minute here, I just remembered that I still haven’t got that Times Square Rolex…
At least, you claimed you didn’t buy it.
It’s a can opener. It opens cans. You twist the thingameebob, and the can opens. How could anyone pay $30 for it?
I don’t think I’ve spent $30 in the last year on the contents insides the cans total!
Lawd, this country is filled with dopes. Paging Jas, paging Jas.
yer outta here, cat.
oh wait, Jas was the one who said everyone was a dope, my bad…
BTW, your Times Square Rolex was sent a while ago.
If you haven’t gotten it yet, I could send you another one while the first one is in transit.
But you need to send me a check for $100 as a deposit for the first one, and when you get both, you can send the first one back.
No problem, send me your bank account number and I’ll just direct deposit the money. I’m a trusting soul, ya know.
Oh, I need a demand draft because my bank doesn’t allow direct transfers.
Look, I don’t even know what a demand draft is…something to do with drinking at a bar? I thought we were talking money here, not beer.
I’m just giving you the “full on” Times Square experience, is all. You want it or not?
Only if you’ll try some Utah fry sauce with that Peking duck.
I’d much sooner send you a Times Square Rolex.
Send away… now you owe me two.
Was it made in China??
nah, I think Martha Stuart made it when she was in prison…
OK, so a buncha kids went a little wild (myself included.)
But we actually did no harm. It was a little inside fun, and nobody was hurt.
Sorry, Ben! It was just a little bit of hi-jinx.
Unless I missed something, I didn’t see any personal insults or foul language from our fun discussion last night.
Me neither.
Nah, Ben’s concern was about the comments Jas received, I’m sure.
Since it’s illegal to cuss in Utah, I know it sure as h-e-doublehockeysticks wasn’t about me.
Yeah, that makes more sense. I skipped that whole thread.
In general, I try (and sometimes fail) to skip any thread in which the gold troll posts.
‘I know it sure as h-e-doublehockeysticks wasn’t about me.’
Flippin’ nohow! You are WAYYYY too virtuous and righteous, allllllll the time. Ahahahaha! *laughs loudly and almost falls off chair with mirth* Hey, look! There’s that damn brass swan again!
Oh, for heavens sakes. I am going to pick this thing up and haul it down the road and Go. Throw. It. In. The. Ocean. Bring a satisfying closure to the Episode of the minatory metal bird.
cool.. i guess we can still call people trolls..
“#$%#@-ing” troll is probably over the line..
Personally, I think the discussions concerning gold are great and I hope they dont stop. At least one half of you are going to look very foolish in about a year, maybe sooner.
I could easily envision a scenario whereby both cash and gold move in tandem against tangible needed goods.
(Not terribly likely but envisionable. Nobody looks foolish then.)
I don’t worry, I have the same amount of gold and money - nada.
Hey, Oly, thanks for the advice the other day. When I slipped around the border patrol, I remembered to not say flippin’ and they didn’t even know it was me.
There’s that damn brass swan again!
Well, well, well, another night, another appearance. If the brass swan and its tales doesn’t surface again.
I wonder if there’s a hazelnut beer. That would be like the second coming of the Sweet Baby Jeebus.
‘At least one half of you are going to look very foolish in about a year, maybe sooner.’
Why wait? How ’bout I just look foolish right this very minute and those of you who enjoy eagerly spying out foolishness can wallow in my uber-foolish state and make gleeful notes and clap each other on your backs all smug-like.
Lessee: I got no gold, except for some jewelry, which I don’t even wear, because I look I cuter in pearls. I do have lots of pearls. I love pearls. Hmmmm….I got twigs in my hair, dark kapowsin silt in my knuckles–I was just now rooting out a few elephant garlics I forgot about until today–also I took a bite out of one, so my breath is spaghetti-like, and I’m wearing a grubby pair of jeans with holes all over them, some thick grey long-johns because the wind is picking up, and that I drew ni*pples on the front and a spinal column on the back of it with a black permanent marker–long story–and an ugly red beanie, and some sparkly earrings because I like sparkly earrings and I thought it gave the ensemble some style.
Is that foolish enough for you? Hooray!
Enjoy!
I’d like a small clarification of the rules please.
If a personal insult is so cleverly contrived that the target takes it to be a compliment, does it still count as an insult?
Nope.
Wait….yes?
Hmmmm. Golly, Joey, that’s a poser.
This very valid question reminds me; one thing I like to say, when presented with some horrid/alarming/freakish item/event/circumstance/person, and someone demands my opinion, what I do is, I smile brightly and I say: ‘I have never seen it’s equal’.
Huh? Huh? Thass right! The perfect answer, one that pleases everyone, including me.
Rapier wit. Zorro leaves his mark
It is not different here.
Hard times hit Bay Area restaurants
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/12/07/MN0J14IDRA.DTL&type=business
Here’s one for all you waffle lovers in the SF Bay Area:
The City Exposed: Waffle Mania
http://www.sfgate.com/cityexposed/
Click on “read more”
I hate these articles. They are nothing more than targeted ads for the paper. The New York Times does the same thing.
Now, it’s perfectly possible that these are excellent places (doubtful!) but as a gourmand, you are better off going off and consulting the geeks on chowhound (for example.)
When they rip apart a place, it’s truly a sight for the gods.
I have never encountered the truly spectacular places through the MSM ever. I’ll stick with the food equivalents of the HBB.
Hey, maybe one of those so called “gourmet” SF Gate authors would want a Kitchen Aid can opener…I bet they use cans.
Went to the Dunsmuir-Hellman house yesterday in Oakland. Never been there. All decorated for Christmas. Just beautiful. If your looking for something different to do with your family, husband, wife, significant other it’s worth the trip. I got to talking with the person who runs the Dunsmuir-Hellman house. She said this will be the first year for them to be in the red. Weddings and business parties are way down and unfortunately that is a large part of their funding. She is doing everything possible to keep from laying off people that work there. Most of them have been there for over 10 years.
Afterwards we stumbled upon the Ghirardelli Chocolate Factory outlet. I highly recommend making a stop here. Prices are unbelievable.
‘Afterwards we stumbled upon the Ghirardelli Chocolate Factory outlet. I highly recommend making a stop here.Prices are unbelievable.’
‘Stumbled’, suuuuure. You was thinking about them for HOURS. You probably had them mapqwested out and didn’t even heed that ‘Dunsmuir-Hellman’ affair.
As is only right! I approve of your priorities.
Come on, now, sanfrangal, tell us all about it! What KIND of chocolate did you get, and how much did you get, and how much was it a pound….why, my hands are shaking just thinking about it. You ought to set up a hotline and charge, to tell us. Only I want to hear the description all nice and slow-like.
Oh, btw, everyone: I like chocolate.
She stumbled. It’s clear.
If she were reaaaaaaallly serious, she would’ve hit Scharffenberger.
‘…she would’ve hit Scharffenberger.’
Urr…?
Tell us about this Scharffenberger! Quickly, man!
It’s in Berkeley, Ca.
They have a factory tour.
Benjamin Jones XVII blocks all “external links” so this post will only appear after he approves it in a few hours.
We’ve hit that f*lt_r stuff again. These posts are going nowhere.
Anyway, no self-respecting SF person would go to Ghirardelli when they can drive across the Bay Bridge and hit Scharffen Berger.
I did post the stuff but it all got caught up in that f*lt_r.
I gave a full-on explanation including a factory tour. SIGH.
Hey,
This self respecting SF likes both chocolates. I love their cocoa mix for hot chocolate.
I should add Ghirardelli cocoa mix.
Chocolate…patouie…gag…
A guide for the newly poor
Denial is common. Michelle Vu took a call from a woman in Hollywood who had lost her job, leading to the eventual loss of her home. For the last four nights the woman had slept in her car.
“I told her about shelters where I could possibly find a place for her,” Vu said. “She said she didn’t want that because shelters are for people who are homeless.”
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cover7-2008dec07,0,7416907.story
==============================
I feel certain that somehow she’s related to Tom.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfXPxo8S-lo&feature=related
Well, it’s hardly Ma Joad and the Grapes of Wrath. She can always call 211.
We’ll wait until somebody is breastfed like Rosemary’s Baby.
‘We’ll wait until somebody is breastfed like Rosemary’s Baby.’
*choke* gurgles beer out onto the splintery wooden desk*
Look! You made me waste beer! That’s like a whole mouthful, man!
Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays from OPEC.
OPEC leans toward deeper-than-expected cuts
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/12/07/MNF714JCO2.DTL
I’ve been following the HBB almost from its inception, and have richly enjoyed and benefited from the information presented and the many great posters. But, over the past few months I’ve become a lot less active in here. A big part of that is being turned off by some of the conduct by regular posters. I’m no slouch when it comes to slinging insults, but still practiced a certain restraint when it came to fellow HBB members, especially longtime posters who had made valuable contributions.
A turning point for me was when TxChick was basically harrassed into leaving. I felt like she was a mainstay in here, and had great respect for her. Another was when a newer poster lanched a vendetta against me, twisting comments I’d made completely out of context and even fabricating quotes, accusing me of being a woman-hater and applauding violence against women - complete and total BS, but longtime posters, who knew better, rarely called her out on it. In the same way, some of the vitriol directed against “our own” has seemed excessive and uncalled for, not to mention, tasteless.
I may not agree with all the opinions expressed in here. Some of the verbal sparring in here is hilarious, and the free flow of ideas is such a welcome contrast to the circumscribed pablum of the mainstream media. Still, I think each of us, individually, needs to seriously consider how much we’ve valued the HBB for the information, and yes, entertainment it’s provided. We then need to do our part to keep it from degenerating into a forum for spiteful and gratuitous backbiting.
Sammy,
txchick wasn’t harrassed into leaving, she was banned from posting.
‘A turning point for me was when TxChick was basically harrassed into leaving.’
Really? I had thought txchick was no slouch in the backbone department and if she left, if was ’cause she felt like it. Ebb and flow of life, kind of thingie. Lots of people come and go. Where’s red pill, raven, aqius, kandy-kane, Tom,…etc, for example?
I thought maybe she left because she was doing something else, or perhaps was all grumpy because her much touted favorite presidential candidate, that one grouchy old guy, what WAS his name?…Oh, yeah, McCain, was doing poorly. Did poorly. Very poorly. Anyway, I didn’t notice tx pulling any punches with HER position, whether or not it had one single thing to do with housing, day-trading, etc… Seemed to have no problem with notifying us all about how much money she had made each day, and then donated to…what WAS it she used to call Hilary Clinton…? Sigh. I just can’t remember.
Anyway, I DID notice you don’t post as much, Sammy, and that’s too bad. I always enjoyed your posts, personally. Rethink your absence, I urge you. Come back.
Yeah, Sammy, I know who that was, one who claims to have superior intelligence and yet occasionally poses as a duck. Sorry I didn’t stick up for you, I’m particularly fond of buzzards, so I feel bad.
Yes, this is a serious post, I miss your observances from on high, your flighty wit. C’mon back.
(Don’t tase me, Ben.)
I just posted purt’ near the same thing to Sammy, losty! But it hasn’t appeared yet. Maybe B*en is just filtering everything that starts from me. Look, I SAID I’d be a better person! Really! I will!
Except I didn’t talk about ducks in my post. Too bad, because I’m really starting to think that ducks are the answer to almost everything. I mean, look at them. Ducks are great!
Say, how many dogs do you have? What are their names?
Today? Only four. Names depend on what they’re doing.
When they’re good:
Chompers
Hank (Hanky Doodle)
Weezee
Daisy Crockett
When they’re bad: well, see I don’t wanna get banned…so just use your imagination, but no cussing in Utah.
Daisy, Daisy Crockett queen of the home frontier.
Daisy LOVES that song.
“Look, I SAID I’d be a better person! Really! I will!”
We’re praying for you over here in Utah, Oly. You know we are…
Oh, NOW you just gettin’ intolerably sassy…Jeeze, man, I…I…goshamighty…arrrgghhh.
LOL!
You know, I just figure you’ll be visiting home for the holidays, so I’m just praying you can outrun the border patrol, like I did.
Has nothing to do with your personal behavior. In fact, I don’t even know why that came up, where did that thought come from??? (looks up)
‘In fact, I don’t even know why that came up, where did that thought come from??? (looks up)’
Hmmmm. At this time I think it very likely that you may simply be mocking me here.
*disapproving sniff*
Anyhow, that’s not not enlightenment on your ceiling.* That’s Daisy Crockett, having built herself an anti-gravity device, I bet.
*Hey! You got a ceiling! Awesome! You ARE gettin’ all civilized! Do you even have poilet taper? Wow….
Oly, I even got LIGHTS!!! Electricity and everything!!!
And HEAT!!! And a nice landlord who won’t steal the appliances and heater, since he owns them already.
And a real BED, did I mention the BED??? yeah, I guess I did. A real genuine bed. A Simmons pillow top with box springs and everything. Sheets and all that, even though I still sleep in my North Face sleeping bag out of habit. Pillows, too, more than one even. And a BIG soaker bathtub. I can’t swim too well, so I haven’t tried it yet…
And I would never mock a fellow pebble pup/rock hound. Never. My words are sincere. BTW, I found the box today that has the Septarian nodules…
And do you say Escalant or Escalante??? Just wonderin’
Mmmmmmmmmmmm…….. Peking Duck.
Extra crispy.
She was not harrassed off the blog, she was banned.
Why?
(That’s all I’m going to ask, as my other 2 attempts should show up next week.)
Yeah, I want to know too. I was away for a week or two around then, and when I came back she was gone.
Why? Just curious.
‘Yeah, I want to know too.’
Yeah, I want to know, too.
I had a comma in my demand, unlike you.
Truly, though, what IS this? What, are we long-lost twins? Please tell me you’re not wearing a Santa hat, sparkly earrings, and chewing a black licorice stick this minute, or I’m gonna call up my mom and shout some accusations.
Yeah, I want to know, too. What’d she DO?! Man, it must have been dreadful, because B*en is quite patient and tolerant. Like somebody’s dad, except no mustache, and young enough to j*ump on.
Hahahahaha!
Okay, moving on, I would think I would already know this, as I pay more attention to this blog than I do to my mom and most of my friends. Maybe I should stay up ALLLLL night, so as to not miss ANYthing.
And by “young enough to j*ump on,” you mean what, exactly?
You guys are gonna get banned, just sayin’
Did you see my post below about her who should not be named. Took a while to come through.
Not sure what’s happening. Some of my posts seem to take a few minutes to come through.
Because she was attacking posters personally. This was not her first time from being banned on this blog.
‘This was not her first time from being banned on this blog.’
Realllly? *delivered in a hushed and horrified whisper*
What happened before?! The first banned time! Did she threaten to k*ill a Democrat, or something?
Say, how long have I been on this blog, anyway? Is there a way to tell? Time flies when you’re having fun. A long, good time, I know that. Yes, this is the first blog I ever loved…
* romantic sigh * I’m not easy, you know.
Well, okay, not with blogs, anyhow. Hahahahaha!
I’ve miss you, Sammy. I keep looking for you under another name… but nope.
Wow, looks like I missed quite the activity here this weekend. A few anecdotes from the Portland area:
1. All the vacant commercial and industrial spaces available for lease in Portland. Just 60 days ago, most biz parks and shopping centers seemed fully occupied. Now, it is rare to drive past one of these and not see a “Now Leasing” sign out front. It’s quite breathtaking to see.
2. I’m hearing more and more chatter such as, “maybe the job market here isn’t as strong as we thought” coming from people who buy into how “progressive” Portland is and move here with no jobs. I say good riddance.
3. I’m moving in a month due to my LL planning to sell “for what we paid for it in 2006.” LOL, yeah right. Complexes are all having “free month” specials, it seems, and SFH for rent are incredibly overpriced and repeatedly show up on C-list. I thought rents were going up.
Fred on the economy
http://blip.tv/file/1528079
Brilliant! Sums it up in a way that even a moron could understand and entertaining to boot. Thanks for that! I have been forwarding it around.
Not sure my other post went through. Everyone should watch this. It is very funny. Thanks for posting it!
Re. Fred on the economy
Is that you Lost?
Say what? Did I hear my name? No, I’m not Skwee, last time I looked, anyway…LOL
Post didn’t go thru, naw, it ain’t me, I’m in the big soaker tub, if I try to post I’ll maybe get electrocuted or something.
Skwee, back me up, I don’t post replies to myself…well, not while I’m in hot water, anyway…
How can I prove I’m not you?