December 8, 2008

The Consequences Of Devil-May-Care Lending

The Des Moines Register reports from Iowa. “Deb Baker believes she’s one of about 31,600 Iowa homeowners whose mortgage is more than the home’s value - a situation that could hinder her ability to refinance her unaffordable loan or to sell her home. ‘You hate to lose what you put into your home,’ said Baker, who’s working with her lender to lower the payment on what she believes is a flawed mortgage. ‘I’m going to do what I have to to make it work. Paying my mortgage is my first priority.’”

“Patrick Madigan, an Iowa assistant attorney general, said the state also experienced ‘a fair number’ of the inflated appraisals that accompanied the subprime-loan boom now causing foreclosures throughout the nation. ‘Mortgage brokers and subprime lenders like Ameriquest would go to existing homeowners and pitch debt consolidation financing’ with the promise of helping homeowners save money, Madigan said.”

“‘Unfortunately, many of the homes didn’t have the value to support rolling all of that debt into the mortgage. So, these brokers would align themselves with unscrupulous appraisers’ who would produce an inflated assessment, he said. ‘People were told they were OK. … But these appraisals weren’t valid. It was a lie.’”

“‘People were underwater from Day One - the day they signed the loan agreement,’ said Madigan, who added that it’s difficult to know how many borrowers received bad appraisals.”

“When Baker lost her nursing job eight months later and found a new job that paid half as much, she investigated getting her monthly payment lowered. That’s when she discovered she paid $21,000 more than Polk County has assessed the home, at $78,000. Baker said the appraiser used by her mortgage broker valued the house exactly at the amount she offered. The same was true of the loans her sister and friend received through the same broker, who is no longer in business.”

“Baker is working…to see if she can get her current lender to modify her loan - lower the private mortgage insurance payment and reduce her interest rate and principal. If she’s unsuccessful, Baker will try to refinance her mortgage next spring. She hopes improvements - a new garage, carpeting and drywall - will boost the home’s value enough to support a new loan.”

“Until then, Baker said she will forget about seeing first-run movies, buying new clothes and traveling to ensure her mortgage is paid. ‘I’ll just keep cutting back until I figure out something,’ she said.”

The Press Citizen from Iowa. “The controversial Lytham Condominiums project calls for 31 units to be built on a 9.5-acre site. Contractors have been doing demolition, excavation and grading since the second week of October. Construction is slated to begin in April or May 2009.”

“Developer Jeff Hendrickson said he isn’t concerned about the struggling housing market. He said there are already deposits down on four homes. ‘The economy is always a concern, but I feel that this project is well-positioned in the market,’ he said. ‘Our customer will probably be diversified financially with a longer-term perspective.’”

“The condominiums will range from 2,665 to 3,675 square feet. Interiors of the units will feature two fireplaces, hardwood floors, high-end cabinetry, granite countertops and wet bars. Prices for the condominiums will range from $529,000 to $599,000.”

The Kansas City Star on Missouri. “In a market brimming with houses for sale, several dozen stood out Saturday — big, yellow auction signs touting them as a potential bonanza for Kansas City area bargain hunters. Harry Falk, 28, a recent transplant from Sacramento, Calif., was among those kicking the tires of what is expected to be more than 75 foreclosed houses on the Missouri side of the metro and outlying counties that will be auctioned Monday evening.”

“The house Falk was looking over is typical of those being offered. The three-bedroom house had been on the market since October, with no takers at the asking price of $159,000. The starting bid when it goes on auction Monday will be $9,000. That sounds like quite a deal, but it’s not something you want to leap into without doing your homework.”

”’It’s a good floor plan, and the location is good,’ Falk said. ‘The question is, if you have to put $45,000 or $50,000 into the house, how much do you have to put up for a bid?’”

“Greg Fisher of Overland Park was another potential bidder for 5933 Rockhill. He was interested in flipping the property, buying it low, fixing it up and selling it for a good profit. He’s renovated and sold about a dozen houses over the past 10 years. ‘An auction method is a little new to me, but I expect to bid,’ he said. ‘I have four houses I’m interested in.’”

“There will be at least five lenders on hand to do deals, said Rick Weinberg, a Real Estate Disposition Corp. spokesman. And be sure to bring your W-2 and tax return to prove you can afford the new house you just bid on. ‘People need to prove they have the money to pay the mortgage,’ Weinberg said. ‘The last thing we want to do is put us back in a situation that got us foreclosed in the first place.’”

Reuters on Illinois. “Less than a year ago, few people in this affluent Chicago suburb expected the subprime U.S. housing crisis would hit close to home. ‘We thought Hinsdale was virtually immune and we wouldn’t see any foreclosures, but we have,’ said Dave Hanna, president of the Chicago Association of Realtors. ‘Nowhere is immune.’”

“Hinsdale has been popular among wealthy doctors, lawyers and executives. It has also seen a 37 percent jump in foreclosure filings this year, according to RealtyTrac, and local data shows the average home sale price has fallen to $1.07 million from $1.15 million in September 2007.”

“The consequences of years of devil-may-care mortgage lending during the U.S. housing boom were first felt among America’s poorer home owners. But if that is where it started, it did not stop there. ‘People think this is just a lower-income problem,’ said Mabel Guzmann, a realtor in Chicago. ‘It’s not.’”

“‘According to First American CoreLogic, in August 2008, 5 percent of U.S. jumbo prime mortgages — those over $417,000 — were behind payments 60 days or more. That was higher than the 3 percent of normal prime mortgage loans 60 days or more behind, but well below the 29.5 percent delinquencies seen for subprime loans, or the 15.4 percent rate for Alt A mortgages, which are a step above subprime.”

“But that 5 percent rate for jumbo delinquencies was more than three times the 1.4 percent rate in August 2007. ‘Jumbo prime mortgages have seen the biggest increase in delinquencies of any category over the past year,’ said Sam Khater, chief economist of First American CoreLogic.”

“Hanna said he has seen an improvement in how Illinois banks handle short sales, as he feels the impact of the crisis has sunk in for more bankers. ‘A few months ago, these bankers maybe saw the secretary down the hall lose her home, but they couldn’t relate to that,’ he said. ‘Now, it’s maybe the guy in the office next door. It has just become a lot more personal.’”

The Chicago Tribune from Illinois. “The home-building company who put Rolling Meadows on the map called it quits last week, giving up an attempt to emerge from bankruptcy. Kimball Hill Homes’ demise isn’t the tale of a home builder undone by simple greed or short-sightedness. It’s the story of a company that saw itself as offering people a version of the American dream and tried to buffer itself against the real estate industry’s inevitable cycles, but got swamped anyway.”

“Closer to home, Lakewood Homes President Buz Hoffman, whose father built Hoffman Estates, recently returned three projects in Newark, Plainfield and Burlington to lenders rather than face foreclosures. In Hampshire, lenders have initiated foreclosure proceedings against part of a development by Pasquinelli Homes, another Chicago-area family-owned builder started in 1956 by two brothers.”

“And Warrenville-based Neumann Homes, which got its start in the mid-1980s, sought bankruptcy protection a year ago and is in the process of liquidating.”

“It wasn’t until the firm had two decades under its belt that Hill looked beyond metropolitan Chicago, entering the Houston market in 1989. More expansion followed, and at one time the company was in 17 markets, nine states and five regions. By 2006, when Kimball Hill had more than 44,000 homes on its resume.”

“‘David had more energy than any builder I ever met,’ said Hoffman. ‘He had wonderful ambitions. He wanted to be very large, and there’s a finite number of homes you can do in Chicago. He diversified beautifully. Had this thing only been a little blip, David and others would have been fine.’”

“Until last week, the company thought it had a chance, since an investor had emerged and signed a letter of intent to acquire the company. On Monday, that unnamed investor backed out of the deal, deciding that the housing markets, particularly in Texas, were a long way from recovery. As a result, Kimball Hill will liquidate, and the name will disappear from the local landscape after almost 40 years.”

“‘We were trying to prepare for that rainy day by deleveraging and increasing the amount of equity,’ said Kimball Hill CEO Ken Love. ‘We had a very formal program in place and we were making very good progress. But this downturn more than overtook us.’”

The Press & Guide from Michigan. “Several up-and-coming companies have expressed interest in setting up shop in Dearborn Heights, but city officials say the state’s struggling economy could prevent them from doing so. ‘The fact is we’re experiencing a significant credit crunch right now,’ said Dearborn Heights Mayor Dan Paletko. ‘Banks aren’t writing loans, which makes if very difficult for businesses to receive the financing they need.’”

“City officials say they’re becoming equally frustrated with plans to redevelop the old fire station property located at the corner of George and Drexel. Two years ago, the Dearborn Heights City Council decided between two main proposals for the land: one from Mohamed Hakim, who wanted to build condos, and Moussa Allouch, who wanted to build single-family homes. The issue was put to a vote and the council accepted Hakim’s bid.”

“But in an interview with the Press & Guide earlier this year, Hakim said he’s decided against condos in favor of building single-family homes. But he is not sure when it will happen, citing the state of Michigan’s housing market. ‘The market isn’t supporting the construction of new homes right now,’ Paletko said. ‘It’s very frustrating.’”

Minnesota Public Radio. “More than 20,000 in Minnesota have gone through foreclosure this year. When they go empty, they can attract thieves and vandals, but they also invite people who are simply looking for shelter. Problem is, some of those vacant houses are deemed unsafe to live in.”

“One night a week, St. Paul city inspectors make surprise visits at problem buildings, looking for people who may be living there illegally. With the current foreclosure crisis, program manager Steve Magner says it’s pretty easy for squatters to spot the abandoned homes. ‘They see when someone moves out, or the papers are not being picked up, or the grass is not being cut, or the snow is not shoveled,’ he says. ‘A place might be going into foreclosure, but utilities are still on, so they will just go in there and set up camp.’”

“Many of the residents visited on the nighttime checks are renters. Magner says he’s run into people who have unwittingly paid rent to swindlers who don’t even own the vacant buildings. But officials say at least half of the people who are caught living in vacant buildings are the rightful owners of those homes. In many cases, they’re in a bind because can’t afford to do the rehab while paying rent to live somewhere else.”

The Star Tribune from Minnesota. “The Washington County tax hearing had yet to begin, but Jesse Ventura, former governor and a Dellwood homeowner, had a few things to say to a couple of county board members Thursday night. As the officials stood before him, smiling and listening, the seated Ventura made reference to the value of his property, which still showed a rise this year for the purpose of determining 2009 taxes, and the former governor found the valuation a little hard to believe.”

“‘Am I living in a twilight zone?’ he asked.”

“What many people do not realize, however, is that the market values used to determine tax bills were set last January and sent to property owners in separate notices last March. This year, however, as the economy has worsened, more people have been left to question the accuracy of the values, as presented on November’s tax notices.”

“‘Are you kidding me?’ is the question that St. Paul City Council President Kathy Lantry said she’s heard most often from constituents this year. ‘In this market, my value is going up?’”




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60 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-12-08 09:00:48

A note to you folks in Illinois: in the markets that fell apart faster than yours, it was when the builders got distressed that the slide quickened.

Comment by ET-Chicago
2008-12-08 09:54:13

Interesting that all builders mentioned in the Chicago Tribune article are suburban developers with a long regional history — these are fairly well-established firms that seemed well-managed. But glut and greed insinuated itself everywhere.

Comment by DennisN
2008-12-08 13:02:33
Comment by DennisN
2008-12-08 14:25:42

That’s BK, not BD. IIRC BD is a jock in Doonsebury.

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Comment by Kim
2008-12-08 10:11:20

Thanks, Ben. Illinois is only starting to wake up to economic reality. I think the builders going out of business - coupled with the sight of laid off employees occupying the factory where they worked in hopes of getting their bankrupt employer to pay them their vacation time - is going to drive the message here.

Temps have been in the teens all week, and few agents outside the city are bothering to host open houses anymore.

Comment by ET-Chicago
2008-12-08 10:55:46

Temps have been in the teens all week, and few agents outside the city are bothering to host open houses anymore.

Right?

Have fun trying to drum up business during the winter season, y’all. It’s gonna be a long, lean winter in Realtorland.

And April is the cruelest month.

Comment by Olympiagal
2008-12-08 12:58:33

…breeding
Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing
Memory and desire, stirring
Dull roots with spring rain.”

T.S. Eliot

A favorite!

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Comment by palmetto
2008-12-08 15:42:53

“the sight of laid off employees occupying the factory where they worked in hopes of getting their bankrupt employer to pay them their vacation time”

I don’t get that whole situation. 60 days notice of layoff? Anywhere I’ve ever worked, it’s “You’re fired, clean out your desk and security will escort you.” No company wanted to have anyone who was fired or laid off hanging around for more than a few hours. You were lucky if you got a couple of weeks severance.

If the company doesn’t have any money, what can they do about it? Can’t squeeze blood from a stone. Even Bammy’s solidarity statement can’t cause gold coins to rain from the heavens. Jesse Jackson got his photo op. Now, the governor is threatening Bank of America that the state of Illinois will cut them off if they don’t lend to the company????????? Sheesh. Let ‘em camp out all they want to. Where do they think they are? The United States?

Comment by palmetto
2008-12-08 15:49:59

BTW, that’s where the influx from North to South will come from, workers making $14.00 an hour in Chicago willing to work for $10.00 an hour in the veggie and fruit packing plants down here, because it’s still cheaper to live here and you don’t freeze your butt off, although the summers are horrendous.

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Comment by I am Sam
2008-12-08 10:48:19

Americans = Greedy
Midwesterners = The Nicest AMERICANS
Housing Bubble = Greed

Greedy Americans = Bubble = Crash

Doesn’t matter how “gosh-darned” nice you are, “by-golly,” you were greedy (and hypocritical) and you will now pay.

Sorry but true. Here in Madison it reminds me of 2004 South Florida… happily renting now and watching sad realities. A realtwhore (FirstWebber Realty, claiming “we’re different here”) told me just a few months ago that she couldn’t show me any properties until I was pre-approved, by HER mortgage company 6.5% (while local CDs were paying 2.75).

It’s going to be a long painful mudslide “Don’tcha Know.”

Comment by exeter
2008-12-08 11:40:38

criminy….. You left out the vomit inducing *wink*.

 
 
Comment by mina
2008-12-08 12:14:07

most of the Chicago news posted by Ben is about subdivisions out by me in Hampshire IL. I have written on this blog many times over the past three years wishing and hoping the developers would cave in before actually building anything.

well, it was close. Lakewood Homes built 1/2 of their development. I don’t know how many they planned maybe 500? they are really close to my house and border on the forest preserve where I exercise my horses. they started closing on finished units about six months ago and there are already about 20+ foreclosure notices there. sounds like their other developments in our area won’t get off the ground. yea baby yea! hopefully this means they’ll stop the development near me right where they left off.

Pasquinelli is south of me about 2-3 miles as the crow flies. FUGLY townhomes and single families all in the middle of what used to be a ginormous cornfield. nothing else around, no stores, no sidewalks, no nothing. why anyone would want to live like that right on top of each other in the middle of farm country I have no idea. but you see how successful that little experiment was. I hear the subs have started suing the very few actual home debtors in that subdivision for work they performed and were not paid by Pasquinelli. haha! classic. of probably 100 “homes” built I think maybe 30-40 are being lived in. the rest is just raped land large enough for probably another 500+ units. a pox on what used to be a lovely landscape.

Crown Community development also planned 2,900 homes in my farm community. mind you, this is a town that has had an average population of less than 2,500 for about 100 years. Crown came in 2006 and has bulldozed and razed and raped thousands of acres. in late 2007 they managed to “sell” one neighborhood to a local builder who took on all of 43 lots to sell/build out of the 95 in that immediate proximity.

I actually did a stealth visit to this one since it’s really close to my house and pretended to be a first time buyer with huge money in the bank (you should have seen this guy frothing at the mouth.) anyway he was trying to hide the fact that in six months since building 3 out of 6 planned model homes that they had sold only ONE and of course the community club house would be built for my enjoyment if I ordered a new house today. (haha, yeah right.) anyway these are $300K houses probably 3,000 square feet in an area with nothing but 30+ year old 1200 square feet farmhouses and tiny in-town shack homes.

last week I was finally able to scare up some news coverage of this development in my local paper (daily herald online) about how Crown wants the town to give them a $10Million bond to “tide them over” for three years until the market comes back. the $10Million would be used to pay interest payments on their outstanding debt on the un-sold subdivisions (in which NO BUILDERS have expressed interest in working on.)

of course I have stood in front of the village board a few times in 2006 and 2007 predicting all of this. they laughed at me. finally the last time I went I told them that there was no further need for me to come and protest the developments any more, the market would take them out for me and that I knew everything I had told them would come to pass.

I am sure the Village President continues to enjoy my emails (sent monthly) with links to the happy news and signed off with a question “so, how’s that working out for ya??”

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-12-08 09:07:45

I could hardly imagine losing my home to foreclosure on a cold December night, somewhere in Minnesota.

Squatting is really the only option, for many minions.

 
Comment by KR
2008-12-08 09:08:41

just saw this on MWatch - once a dork, always a dork

WASHINGTON(MarketWatch) - Office of the Comptroller of the Currency director John Dugan on Monday released statistics showing a high re-default rate on mortgages that have been modified in the first two quarters of 2008. “The results were surprising, and not in a good way,” Dugan told a gathering in Washington at the Office of Thrift Supervision’s annual conference. According to the OCC statistics, which looked at loans modified in the first quarter and second quarter of 2008, 36% of borrowers had re-defaulted by being more than 30 days past due and after six months, the rate was roughly 56%. After eight months, 58% of borrowers had re-defaulted. The OCC tracked the number of borrowers that re-defaulted on their mortgages after the modification was completed. Dugan acknowledged that not all re-defaulted mortgages go to foreclosure, but he argued that the number was very high. Dugan said he was not sure why there was such a high level of re-default, pointing out that it may be because the modifications were not low enough to be affordable

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-12-08 09:52:52

So much for the efficacy of rewriting private contracts.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-12-08 09:54:33

“…it may be because the modifications were not low enough to be affordable…”

That would be my leading theory.

Comment by KR
2008-12-08 09:59:14

or bad consumption habits continue

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Comment by Professor Bear
2008-12-08 10:30:00

Or job loss in a recession that took so many experts completely by surprise makes loan repayment “harder than expected.”

 
Comment by scdave
2008-12-08 10:39:30

Pbear….”CONpartment” ??

Good One !! :)

 
Comment by az_lender
2008-12-08 11:06:51

“bad consumption habits”

Yeah. I’ve mentioned a couple of clients who asked for loan modifications repeatedly and then some. Only one of these accounts is still on my books, and we are in the process of getting them Caught Up with the 8-month-old modification, the alternative being a higher monthly payment. In less than a week I’ll know if they kept their promise to finish catching up in Dec. (Their payment is due the 13th.) Stay tuned.

In their case, bad consumption habits are definitely the reason, although their latest lateness had to do with their spending some money on trying to get a re-fi from a cheaper lender. They failed. My 9% is the best they are going to get.

 
 
Comment by Kim
2008-12-08 10:17:50

I don’t get a sense that lenders are writing down much principal. Most modifications to this point have really been about moving money around on paper (i.e. lower interest rates, longer terms, or balloons at the end). So it wouldn’t surprise me, now that these FBs might have gotten a little education with their modification, if they are re-thinking their desire to keep and remain in the house after all.

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Comment by az_lender
2008-12-08 11:10:32

That’s a good point too. Haven’t seen any statistics, but I can’t understand why a lender would write down any principal at all. I wouldn’t. I’d foreclose and take my chances. My fee-free modifications usually consist of a slight lengthening of the term; occasionally, it’s a “catch up your one missed payment over the course of the next six months.”

 
Comment by wiscker
2008-12-08 12:06:39

If the loan is 400k and you know you’d only get 200K if you put the house up for sale, wouldn’t you be better off writing down 100K? I’m not saying this is a common case, but I can imagine a scenario where it would benefit the lender to write down principal.

 
Comment by Michael Fink
2008-12-08 13:32:27

Wiscker,

Yes, you absolutely would be. Unless you think that that the house is going down to 150K. then you should take the 200K and get out. And, it’s much more common then you think, there are plenty of homes in my area (FL) that are in that situation.

The problem is that these banks need to write off 50% of the principal in many cases, a number that will push all of them BK instantly. The longer they can keep their FB on the hook; the more money they can extract before foreclosure, the less it hurts. Also, if they can keep the FB paying for a few years (before they realize how stupid it is to not just walk away), perhaps they can sell the loan to some other moron (likely the American Govt) and get the loan totally off their books.

It’s all about trying to stay alive; but, no, nothing is going to help these people who bought at the peak.. The only option is massive principal writedowns, something I hope we don’t do!

 
 
 
Comment by tresho
2008-12-08 10:34:38

So much for making loans to people who really can’t afford them.

 
Comment by measton
2008-12-08 14:20:00

How much of it is poor efficiency in rewriting loans vs home owners realizing that they have been tied to a cannonball that just dropped into the sea, yes the banks lengthened the chain but I’m guessing most still want to be untied.

 
 
Comment by Curt
2008-12-08 10:46:17

When the re-defaulted, re-defaulted default mortgages default, we’ll really be in deep do da.

Comment by michael
2008-12-08 11:34:47

“When the re-defaulted, re-defaulted default mortgages default, we’ll really be in deep do da.”

did the word “re-default” even exist before this fracking fiasco?

“gosh darn-it i got re-kicked-in-the-nuts again by that same guy…lol”.

 
 
Comment by michael
2008-12-08 11:32:21

“…it may be because the modifications were not low enough to be affordable…”

american public policy has communicated to the world that there is no risk to americans who do not pay their debts.

moral hazzard is a bitch.

they modified them lower before…why…they can just modify them even lower again dammit…or i want pay my mortgage.

 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-12-08 09:26:42

“‘David had more energy than any builder I ever met,’ said Hoffman. ‘He had wonderful ambitions. He wanted to be very large, and there’s a finite number of homes you can do in Chicago. He diversified beautifully. Had this thing only been a little blip, David and others would have been fine.’”

I decided to go to the moon just the other day, because I wanted to prance around up there and play golf and moon the earth-people and all those other fun activities you do whilst upon the lunar surface. But then, alas, I looked down and saw that I had no wings. Also I had forgot to pack a sandwich. If I’d only had wings, and a sandwich, it would have been Just. Fine.

Jeeze! I’m STILL amazed when I hear about stupid builders and their even stupider plans. Is greed the ONLY thing inside their pointy little noggins? Don’t these idjits have any awareness of reality or have any self-restraint or anything?

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-12-08 12:34:35

“Had this thing only been a little blip, David and others would have been fine.’”
“Had his grandma been born with danglers, David’s grandma would have been his grandpa.”

Comment by Olympiagal
2008-12-08 13:03:07

Yar! And if his grandpa had only had pretty sparkly pink rhinestone flower earrings, such as I am wearing today, then his grandpa would have been a prettier grandma, when he turned into his, David’s, grandma, and subsequently might have attracted a better-quality gene donor, and then David himself would be both cuter and smarter today, as a result.

Sigh. But evidently it was not to be.

Comment by Olympiagal
2008-12-08 13:07:07

Oh, wait—you said if David’s grandMA turned into his grandPA, not the other way round. Girl into boy whossname thingie.
Well, goodness, why in blazes would she do THAT? Grandpa’s can’t wear sparkly earrings to such good effect, so there’s obviously no point in turning into one. Hey! Look at mine! They shimmer when I waggle my head around! Huh? Yeah!
Pretty.

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Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-12-08 13:55:19

It was the parallel association of “little blip” and “danglers” really.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-12-08 14:29:24

Oh.
That’s kinda an arcane association for me. You could have said ‘little dangling blippers’, and then I would have got it.

Hey! Look at my earrings sparkle when I waggle my head!
Pretty!

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Tim
2008-12-08 09:44:35

“That’s when she discovered she paid $21,000 more than Polk County has assessed the home, at $78,000. Baker said the appraiser used by her mortgage broker valued the house exactly at the amount she offered.”

I call BS. Governmental appraisals are almost meaningless as the governmental appraisers rarely even visit the home. Instead they usually rely on sales records and inflation forumulas. Also, I don’t see how any legit buyer can be “fooled” by an inflated appraisal. Did she not see multiple homes before she decided to buy this one? Didn’t she pick this one and offer the price she did because she felt it was the best deal at the time?

I am all for punishing appraisers that collude with buyers in the commission of bank fraud, but blaming the appraiser (which is actually supposed to protect the bank and brought in after a price is agreed to) that you over paid for your house is about as low as you can go.

Comment by hd74man
2008-12-08 12:11:26

RE: Governmental appraisals are almost meaningless as the governmental appraisers rarely even visit the home.

I was a certified FHA/HUD and VA appraiser for 20 and 13 years respectfully.

I can assure you-all the properties I was ever involved with, sales, re-fi’s, foreclosure’s et., el., were always duly inspected.

Both entities also had a fairly decent review system, which would negate blowing off an inspection except by the most crazed and lazy.

However, the system severely lapsed when Congress bending to the demands of mortgage industry lobbyists, dismantled the autonomous, agency controlled, rotational fee panel system, and replaced it with a self-serving set of regulations which allowed loan originators to personally select their specific appraiser to do their deals, which in essense said adios to unbiased and uncoerced valuation reporting.

Fortunately, for US taxpayers at the time, the subprime sector was scoring all the real garbage because of governmental minimum property standard requirements, which were still difficult (but not impossible) to compromise because of the governmental appraisal review process.

But even this review system eventually became watered down when the review appraiser’s were blackmailed by realtors who threatened to forward letters of rebuke to their Congressional rep’s because the appraiser had compromised their deal and the purchaser’s ability to attain and participate in the “American Dream”.

It was my experience, that the non-inspection drive-by appraisals (which are against the Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice) and computer generated valuations largely accrued to the private sector jumbo loans with the deviation from reporting standards reflective of the laxity of proper underwriting.

Comment by Tim
2008-12-08 13:33:34

Are those appraisals used for county assessments? I have bought 5 homes in the Atlanta area in my life time. At no point was the assessed value ever based on an actual in-home appraisal, or come close to market value. Thus, when ppl tell me the assessed value, my first response is that is meanginless, because it has been my experience. Maybe some areas are different. I just think its real lame she is blaming the appraiser for not telling her prices would fall - as to current market price her willingness to pay it establishes that it was fair market value at the time unless she was mentally challenged when she put in the offer. I understand collusion to commit bank fraud and the need to blame the appraiser. I just find it bizarre that anyone would say the appraisal was bad if they viewed properties and hand picked the one they thought was the best deal themselves before buying. Housing values just went down. Nothing in this story indicated to me the appraisal was bad.

Note that the government appraisal I was referring to was just the assessment, which in my experience has not really been an appraisal at all.

Comment by hd74man
2008-12-08 14:49:01

RE: Are those appraisals used for county assessments?

Some are utilized for contesting current assessments in certain situations, like when there is a major discrepancy due to major market fluctuations in the interium between full physical inspection revaluations.

Interestingly, the terminology for property tax valuation varies from region to region.

In the northeast, the word is “assessment” is not synonomus with “appraisal” due to the methodology utilized in the derivation of value.

In order to meet state requirement’s assessing department’s utilize formula’s for mass appraising, whereby the valuations prepared for an individual’s financing, divorce, probate, et. el., involve another methodology.

In Maine full community-wide physical inspection’s of property’s by the town or city’s taxing authority are mandated like every 5 to 10 years.

It’s a very arduous, time consuming and controversial process. Residents hate it because most have done some sort of upgrading which is not visible from a street inspection.

Businesses usually like it because it keeps everything current for their books.

However, it’s always been my perception, that tax assessments SHOULD NOT be utilized for valuations relative to individual loan underwriting.

Relative to blaming appraisers for market directions. FB’ers are now looking for scapegoats. The statement of limiting conditions for a FNMA 1004 states that the submitted value is made of a specific date.

If people want a future $$$ scenario then they need to pony up the dough for a full feasibility analysis. Of course they’re all cheap f*cks-and wouldn’t even think of puttin’ the coin down. Now everybody’s all bluster after the fact.

Relocation appraisals want a 120 day marketing time discount applied to their values. I always felt the derivation of this was commensurate with calling the winner of a horse before the gate opened or looking into a chrystal ball .

With the suddenness and volatility of interest rates and financial events today; wtf can forecast the future out to a degree of 1%.

And if you did have the ballz to apply a negative appreciation; whoohee- the homeowner’s would go ballistic-and throw the, “WTF are you, “a see the future Swami”?

IMHO the whole valuation thing has degenerated into chaos.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Tim
2008-12-08 15:45:16

Thanks for the details.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-12-08 09:46:50

“‘According to First American CoreLogic, in August 2008, 5 percent of U.S. jumbo prime mortgages — those over $417,000 — were behind payments 60 days or more. That was higher than the 3 percent of normal prime mortgage loans 60 days or more behind, but well below the 29.5 percent delinquencies seen for subprime loans, or the 15.4 percent rate for Alt A mortgages, which are a step above subprime.”

I am guessing a lot of these loans in excess of $417,000 went to households in the upper echelon of the U.S. income and wealth distribution. Does Congress have the right combination of political will and deception necessary to bail out the wealthiest Americans at the expense of everyone else (including renters, who obviously are relatively poor)?

 
Comment by az_lender
2008-12-08 09:49:27

The Des Moines Register piece points out a connection between underwater houses and “debt consolidation financing.” What was done presumably converted unsecured debt into (initially lower-interest) secured debt. This was not good for the FB’s, but it’s good for those of us who don’t believe in running a whole economy on credit, and it brings house prices down more quickly than if the “debt consolidation financing” had never happened. The debt-consolidation mortgages are not “comps,” so they didn’t directly contribute to the inflation of house prices — correct me if I am wrong here. Yet they will certainly contribute to the foreclosure cascade, hence to the deflationary adjustment.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-12-08 09:57:53

transformed into secured debt.. but contribute to the foreclosure cascade?
i’d expect such people would be less willing to walk away when they must leave valuable stuff (loan collateral) behind.

 
Comment by climber
2008-12-08 10:22:40

Refinances were used as comps for the HPI index that OFHEO used to track house prices. They admitted in one report that it inflated the index by about 4%, and that amount compounded every year. Over a few years that’s not trivial.

Comment by az_lender
2008-12-08 11:00:35

I agree, non-trivial. Thanks for the correction.

 
 
 
Comment by cobaltblue
2008-12-08 10:07:47

“The condominiums will range from 2,665 to 3,675 square feet. Interiors of the units will feature two fireplaces, hardwood floors, high-end cabinetry, granite countertops and wet bars. Prices for the condominiums will range from $529,000 to $599,000.”

In IOWA; as in “I Owe A” half-million dollars for a no-can-do condo in the middle of nowhere.

What circus do these clowns belong to, when they aren’t contructing monuments to ego and stupidity?

 
Comment by hd74man
2008-12-08 11:44:47

RE: Baker said the appraiser used by her mortgage broker valued the house exactly at the amount she offered. The same was true of the loans her sister and friend received through the same broker, who is no longer in business.”

Here’s an example of the “professionalism” exhibited by a bucket shop volume hacks, duly licensed by a state appraisal board, who was so stupid and lazy he couldn’t even muster the intelligence to cover his tracks on his appraisal by fudging a number off the value hit, so as to at least give the impression he was actually doing his job.

hehehe…these are the idiots who made the RE valuations behind the subsequent bogus underwriting and ratings of trillions of $$$ of MBS sold off by the Wall St. fraudsters.

LIES, ALL LIES, I TELL YOU!

RACKEETERS HO!

 
Comment by lani
2008-12-08 12:29:32

hi Ben,
All this talk about lowereing the interest rates is totally misleading if people’s homes are worth less than they paid for them.The fact that all these banks were bailed out with no stipulation to lend to consumers and no adjustment to their overall debt is a catastrophy. Thanks again Ben for hitting the nail on the head.

lani

 
Comment by awaiting wipeout
2008-12-08 12:33:59

Paul Volcker is back, and he warns of tough times ahead - (excellent article)
http://www.latimes.com/news/la-na-volcker8-2008dec08,0,2744433,full.story

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-12-08 14:11:01

‘”It is less about his ideas but more about his stature, wisdom and integrity,” said Princeton University economist Alan Blinder. “There is not another person on the planet who can match that combination.”‘

His ideas sound much more reasonable to me than ‘bailouts for everything that moves, and some things that do not move.’ Whose ideas is Blinder implicitly defending with that backhanded compliment?

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-12-08 14:14:06

Volcker will not occupy a position in the Obama administration that gives him any direct authority…

he warns of tough times.. and i bet he’s got valid solutions and a workable game plan as well.. for all the good it’ll do us, which will be zilch when he is completely but politely ignored.

Comment by wmbz
2008-12-08 16:11:32

“for all the good it’ll do us, which will be zilch when he is completely but politely ignored”.

100% correct, the new deal will kick off with a freshly minted trillion on Jan 21st. Volcker knows for a fact, when you are in a hole you stop digging. So he’ll have to just melt away.

 
 
Comment by measton
2008-12-08 14:37:51

Volcker has said: For one thing, no mathematical model can accurately predict human hysteria in a financial panic. “Simply stated, the bright new financial system . . . failed the test of the marketplace,” Volcker said this year.

Bingo
Trickle down, unregulated economics has failed.

 
 
Comment by Jen Bones
2008-12-08 13:46:49

“The Washington County tax hearing had yet to begin, but Jesse Ventura, former governor and a Dellwood homeowner, had a few things to say to a couple of county board members Thursday night. As the officials stood before him, smiling and listening, the seated Ventura made reference to the value of his property, which still showed a rise this year for the purpose of determining 2009 taxes, and the former governor found the valuation a little hard to believe.”

Hard to believe? You mean it’s kayfabe?!

Jesse, you’ve being zambonied. You’ve turned into such a tweener. And I can almost smell the ring rust on you. You need to hulk up — no more tap-outs or two-and-a-half-counts.

Listen up, spot monkey: if I don’t see a head drop or high spot from you soon — and I mean real soon — I’m asking for my money back.

Luv,
Jen

 
Comment by 2banana
2008-12-08 14:02:27

“Baker is working…to see if she can get her current lender to modify her loan - lower the private mortgage insurance payment and reduce her interest rate and principal. If she’s unsuccessful, Baker will try to refinance her mortgage next spring. She hopes improvements - a new garage, carpeting and drywall - will boost the home’s value enough to support a new loan.”

No granite counter tops and SS applicances?

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2008-12-08 21:39:36

“If she’s unsuccessful, Baker will try to refinance her mortgage next spring. ”

If she has the means to re-fi her way out the situation, what lender in their right mind would give her a work-out?

 
 
Comment by measton
2008-12-08 14:40:30

SAN DIEGO – An F-18 military jet approaching a Marine base crashed near a busy highway in a densely populated San Diego neighborhood Monday, sparking a house fire.

Looks like the military has joined the battle on the surpluss in housing. Military industrial complex, and builders both win.

Comment by reuven
2008-12-08 14:54:47

Pieces of canopy landed in the backyard of a friend of mine. Photos here:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/canthes/3093807130/in/photostream/

And for the record, I worked on the F14, not the F18. It’s not *my* fault this plane crashed.

 
 
Comment by reuven
2008-12-08 14:57:26

“When Baker lost her nursing job eight months later and found a new job that paid half as much, she investigated getting her monthly payment lowered.

The whole logic behind this is mind boggling! Of course, it never hurts to ask, but for anyone to think she can get her payment lowered on a loan just because she’s now making less money is astonishing! Doesn’t she realize that real, actual money was paid by the bank to the prior owner from whom she bought the house? (Or perhaps in home equity loans to her?) Why does she expect someone else to take responsibility for her mess?

Comment by measton
2008-12-08 17:22:18

Because the government has shown her again and again that it will reward those who gamble at the expense of those who are prudent.

 
 
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