The Housing Bubble

The News Press reports from Florida. “Lee County’s housing market is overflowing with three-bedroom, two-bathroom homes and that’s led to bargains on what was a much pricier commodity during the housing boom. There were 1,603 of them in Cape Coral and 1,814 in Lehigh - everything from upscale, canal-side digs to basic starter homes - found last week on the local MLS. James Sommers, an agent in Fort Myers, said they dominate sales in the Cape, a community he specializes in. ‘I’m selling 2- and 3-year-old homes, neat as a pin, for less than I sold lots two or three years ago,’ he said.”

“One of his Cape Coral listings, a three-two with a den, built in 2006, sold in October for the short-sale price of $85,000. Cape Coral homes spanned a broad range on the MLS. At the low end of the scale was a short sale home on Northeast 13th Place, built in 2004, for $49,900. The priciest was also a short sale, a circa-2002, waterfront home on Southwest 33rd Avenue, with a dock, pool and spa and 2,090 square feet of living area for $699,900.”

“In Lehigh, there were 726 three-twos listed for less than $100,000, the least expensive being a bank-owned home with 1,233 square feet of living area available for $36,000. The high end is represented by an upgrade-laden home with a pool highlighted by a waterfall with an asking price of $487,000.”

“‘Buyers are savvy now and practically ignoring these short sales and focusing on foreclosures because they will get what’s on their wish list at a price that’s awesome,’ said Lynne Brantley, a Realtor-broker associate in Lehigh. She described bank-owned homes as ‘the meat. This is the reality, foreclosures. There are people calling daily from all over the country buying these houses, sight unseen. It’s like the boom, only backwards.’”

The Naples News. “Cape Coral-Fort Myers is back on top. But not in a good way. In November, it took the No. 1 spot for foreclosure activity in the nation. Robert Vreeland, broker and owner of Re/Max Coastal Living in Bonita Springs, fears that next year will only be worse for foreclosures in Southwest Florida. ‘Now all of the sudden a lot of these subprime mortgages are coming due, or the adjustable rates are readjusting and people are losing their jobs and can’t pay these high mortgages,’ he said.”

“‘The foreclosures have to get stopped,’ Vreeland said. ‘They are killing communities. They are killing the values of the homes and they are causing the problem to get worse and worse.’”

The Sun Sentinel. “Federal prosecutors filed a fraud charge Thursday against a Miami man accused of inflated credit scores in the creation of mortgage-backed securities at a South Florida firm. Steven Gordon substituted higher credit ratings on more than 2,800 loans he acquired as a director at Bayview Financial in Coral Gables, prosecutors alleged.’

“Bayview unwittingly packaged the doctored loans with others and sold shares to investors. Between 2004 and 2006, Bayview and its affiliates sold roughly $4.5 billion in commercial and residential mortgages to investors.”

The Tampa Bay Business Journal. “Builders are making heartfelt appeals to Florida financing officials and even key members of the U.S. Senate to curtail the number of construction loans banks are calling in. The results might be casualties before improvement as bankers battle not just for dollars, but also for survival.”

“‘We’re not looking for a handout or a bailout,’ said John Fowke, the incoming president of the Florida Home Builders Association. ‘We need their help in helping us find the bottom to this housing mess. The Fed is forcing lending institutions to do certain things within certain guidelines, which is making it impossible to find that bottom. Instead, they’re creating a downward spiral that we can’t stop.’”

“With regulators looking over their shoulders, banks have to ensure existing and new loans are strong, a necessary evil of the current economy, said Alex Sanchez, president of the Florida Bankers Association in Tallahassee. ‘We’re in an overbuild situation in Florida,’ he said. ‘They know it, and we know it. And we have got to reduce inventory before we start building more homes.’”

“A moratorium could destroy the very banks the FDIC is trying to protect, FBA’s Sanchez said. ‘I just don’t think it’s possible,’ Sanchez said. ‘The first job of bank regulators is to keep the banking industry safe. You can’t just make a blanket statement like, ‘Don’t call loans for the year.’ What if the loan needs to be called? What if that means the bank survives or not?’”

The News Journal. “Not only are existing homes slow to sell in Volusia County, but fewer new ones are being built. Permits were issued for 311 new housing units in July through September for the county and 16 cities, down 60 percent from 775 in the third quarter of 2007, according to the most recent market report by Hanley Wood.”

“Hanley Wood doesn’t track Flagler County. ‘The past six months are the worst I have seen it,’ said Anthony Viscomi, head of sales and marketing for Ormond Beach-based Viscomi Hansard Builders.”

“Multifamily housing permits fell a dramatic 81 percent from 401 last third quarter to 75 this past quarter. Single-family home permits fell 37 percent, from 374 to 236.”

“‘We have all aggressively priced our new homes, and we are whittling away at our inventory, but until all the inventory is reduced, no one is going to build on spec,’ said Charlene Irland, ICI Homes vice president of administration.”

The Capital News Service. “Declining homes sales over the past year and a half have helped spur a two billion dollar hole in the state budget. The good news, sales have picked up over the past two months and the average price of a home in Florida has fallen to 170,000 dollars. Florida Association of Realtors Spokesman John Sebree said the climate is perfect for first time buyers.”

“‘At this point our opportunity is the first home buyers. The person who doesn’t have a house to sell before they can buy a house. They now have the lowest price they’ll probably ever have, lower interest rates than they’ll probably every have,’ said Sebree.”

The Herald Tribune. “Only five cities in the nation built housing at a faster rate than North Port since 2005, according to new U.S. Census data showing just how overheated the city’s housing boom was. In fact, North Port added more housing in the past eight years than in the 40 after its inception in 1959.”

“University of Central Florida economic expert Sean Snaith calls places like North Port ‘pockets of pain around the state,’ because of their heavy dependence on the building and real estate industries. According to the area’s Multiple Listing Service, 1,302 single-family homes were on the market in North Port as of Wednesday, 632 of them built since 2005.”

“‘That’s a big inventory, especially in this economy where credit channels have been clogged up,’ said Snaith.”

“According to local real estate agent Kent Lewis, speculators were drawn to North Port’s abundance of cheap, buildable lots, much cheaper than the limited supply of land closer to the coast. ‘You could have a two-room shack, if it was priced below $100,000, they were gone in a day,’ said Lewis, noting that many first-time buyers could not even get in the market as prices rose almost monthly.”

“The number of foreclosures filed in Southwest Florida and across the state fell dramatically in November and is expected to fall further in December because of moratoriums declared by the state’s lenders at the urging of Gov. Charlie Crist.”

“The dramatic declines had at least one Realtor who specializes in foreclosed properties declaring that the foreclosure crisis has peaked. ‘We may have passed the top of the cycle,’ said Matt Augustyniak, broker in Bradenton. ‘Three years ago takes us to the end of 2005 when sales dropped off. There were not as many mortgages in 2006.’”

“Dennis Black, a Port Charlotte real estate consultant, believes the November drop is a temporary blip. ‘Remember, November is a month with a holiday. People tend to work less,’ he said. Black also believes that the only thing the current 45-day moratorium on foreclosures will do is create a landslide of filings on the 46th day. ‘It’s not going to change the fact that people are in houses they can’t afford,’ he said.”

“Margaret Amador, an agent who specializes in short sales, sees other investors holding off because of the financial crisis. ‘I have a little three-bedroom house I am trying to sell on North Lockwood Ridge Road and I had a cash buyer who was willing to pay $77,000,’ Amador said. ‘But when the crisis deepened, this buyer decided he wanted to hold on to his cash.’”

“For Venice resident Steven Baker, the crisis has produced nothing but frustration. He is trying to work with a bank on a commercial property he and his wife bought in 2006. ‘In November 2007, we came to the bank in good faith to advise them we needed some options regarding our loan as we had been unable to sell, rent, or use the property,’ Baker said in an e-mail to the Herald-Tribune. ‘They managed to drag the process on and on, not returning phone calls, e-mails, etc.’”

“‘I think it all comes down to the fact the financial institutions really don’t know how to handle the current situation to protect themselves, so will do whatever they can do at the cost of the borrowers, no matter what that cost is,’ Baker said. ‘They are finding the government will continue to issue handouts to themselves, so why make an effort to help the borrowers? They will get their money no matter what. It’s a combination of greed and stupidity.’”

“Florida’s budget crisis has grown so severe that some state legislators are abandoning their long-held resistance to tax increases or severe program-altering budget cuts. Legislators from both parties are signaling something far bigger is going to have to happen to deal with a $2 billion shortfall in the $66 billion state budget this year that could grow to a $6 billion hole through next year.”

“‘To just make a few cuts is not going to do it,’ said state Rep. Bill Galvano, R-Bradenton. ‘It has to be a real bold restructuring of government programs.’”

“State Sen. Nancy Detert, R-Venice, said legislators are going to have to look more seriously at issues like tax increases, and maybe not just on cigarettes as some have suggested. After the Senate was briefed on the details of the crisis, Detert said it is clear every revenue stream is going down. ‘Even gambling revenues are down,’ Detert said.”

“With Florida’s property values — which form the tax base for local governments and schools — expected to plunge a record $266 billion next year, Crist and the Legislature are confronting two options: Either increase taxes significantly, or make the deepest cuts to programs that the state has seen in decades.”

“Sen. Dan Gelber, D-Miami Beach, who has long advocated a greater diversification of Florida’s economic base, said the crisis was not unexpected in a state that has built its financial health on growth, which has nearly come to a halt because of the recession. ‘This is what happens when you build a state based on growth rather than on producing something,’ Gelber said. ‘Growth is not a product and the fumes of growth cannot forever be the fuel of a state’s economy.’”