Bits Bucket For December 26, 2008
Please visit the HBB Forum. Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Merry Christmas to all! Hope you had a grand holiday!
Hey! I still have a few more days left in my holiday! Hope everyone’s Chanukkah is going well, so far.
…Well, Not Bernies’ ,and a few of his close investor buddies.
Technically speaking, Christmas lasts until Jan 5.
Grams keep Christmas going until Jan 12.
What gives?
Criminy - the Lady loves minoras (sp)? Mangers, Lights galore!
And bells - Gram has bells from ALL over the world.
She says, “When a bell rings, an angel gets her wings”.
I have a sinus infection, and the bells are a ringing in my head -
Now on to cookies!
We baked 12 doz - my arse…er…caboose…
Gets larger just smelling the fumes…ah.
Oh wait, what?
Merry Christmas the day after!
Burp…so unlady like.
Hey, it’s all good.
Baybeeeeeeey!
Best to All!
Leigh
P.S. Jibberish is happy happy joy joy
Lay off the sauce, lady!
Speaking of Jesus’ religion, I was invited to an Ultra Orthodox Bar Mitzvah at 8:30AM tomorrow. I’ve never been to a BM, so this ought to be interesting.
Eat a big breakfast before you go, you’ll be there for a while.
As a New Yorker who’s been to more than he cares†, I have only one word for you: hipflask.
† the “Star Wars” themed one took the mickey out of me but ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die.
It’ll be a standard Saturday morning Torah service, except the Bar Mitzvah boy will read from the Torah (and possibly lead the service.)
The Torah portion will be Genesis 41:1−44:17
And the Orthodox services are better; they go faster, and they separate the women so you get a little break from the wife for a while!
Lend more, save more, stop making high risk loans to deadbeats, avoid falling knife collateral — what’s a poor banker to do?
Wall Street Journal
* BUSINESS
* DECEMBER 26, 2008
Banks Told: Lend More, Save More
Can They Do Both? Regulators Want to See More Capital, Regardless
By DAMIAN PALETTA and DAVID ENRICH
Federal regulators are sending a mixed message to the nation’s banks: Lend more to boost the economy, but at the same time, build up capital to protect against losses.
You can’t have credit expansion and savings at the same time.
Might as well look for a chaste hooker.
Might as well look for an honest used home seller.
…er
Might as well look for a chaste hooker.
Fast - clever.
Err…but um…
Huh?
Okaaay, not a hooker.
Dang, I am sipping eggnog.
Talk to me like I’m a ten y/o!!
Leigh
P.S. Happy Happy Joy Joy~~
Once the housing market bottoms out (maybe in mid-2010), the whole bank lending equation will become far easier, as the risk of catching falling knife collateral will have ended.
With prices stable to rising, will standards, once again, start to deteriorate?
Bottom will be market by market. Some markets may be hitting bottom between late 2009 and mid-2010, but there will still be a lot of markets falling like a rock 18 months from now.
Seasons greetings from an occasional poster (but frequent lurker). A small question to run by the group. My wife and I have been looking at a few places in the Philly burbs, and I feel that the agent working with us is still so enamoured with the re market that she will not be of any help to us in the (unlikely) event that we find a viable place. We are in an awesome rental situation so in no rush, but the question will come up eventually. What should we expect from a buyers agent, can an agressive one help us realize a better price, and how to ensure they are really working in our interest?
Thanks and here’s wishing every a peaceful and prosperous 2009!
What should we expect from a buyers agent ??
Having the knowledge, ability and willingness to educate you by demonstrating what the values and trend lines are in the market niche you are trying to locate in prior to making any offers…
RE: What should we expect from a buyers agent, can an agressive one help us realize a better price, and how to ensure they are really working in our interest?
Unless you are paying directly for the buyer’s agent services, their reimbursement is still coming for the seller’s commission, despite all the hocus pocus wording of state law relative to agency.
Do your own homework.
And when you find something you think you like; get your OWN appraisal and building inspector.
DO NOT RELY on recommendations for these services from anybody connected to the direct selling and financing of the property.
The hack shop number hitters are still out there en masse.
Dump the buyers agent. When I sold my shack back home in VT, the buyer paid a buyers agent who basically colluded with the RE agent representing me. The buyer got screwed by these two creepy RealTards.
Don’t buy now unless you’re buying at a price point within a few percent of historical trend. If you’re insistent on buying, dump the buyer agent and be AGRESSIVE with Realtard. If necessary, be downright combative when necessary. When is that? It’s the very FIRST time you hear the Realtard attempt to instill a sense of urgency. If you’ve been reading this blog, you’ll know when you’re hearing it in an instant.
And when you find something you think you like; get your OWN appraisal and building inspector.
DO NOT RELY on recommendations for these services from anybody connected to the direct selling and financing of the property.
Excellent advice.
I personally know several dipsticks who, during the boom, waived an inspection altogether, got an inspection from a non-independent party, or accepted an (inflated) appraisal at face value. Those dipsticks all had trouble of one sort or another down the road.
hd47man,
AMEM!
Leigh
First, disabuse yourself of the notion that there’s any such thing as a “buyers agent”. Realtors have only their own self-interest at heart, and won’t hesitate to collude with the seller’s agent to get the most money possible out of you.
+17
there are some OK ones, I had one when I bought in 1997, aside from pushing her own agencies listings (understandable since the commission is double) she was straight with me and helped me find a decent place at a good price….used her again when I sold ten years later, got it done in a week…would have done FSBO but thanks to this blog knew there was NO time to waste early last year and was OK with paying the ridiculous commission since the pop was imminent
It’s not so much that an aggressive agent can get you a better price, than it is that a realistic and intelligent agent can help you get to the lowest price the seller will possibly accept (although you can probably do this yourself). If you feel like your agent is trying to discourage you from what they call “low balling” or trying to push you to act, dump them immediately.
Also do not sign an exclusive buyer’s agency contract unless it is limited solely to houses that they actually show you first, and dont agree to a lock out period (i.e., number of days you cannot use another agent if you are not happy with their services). If you find anything through your own due diligence, deal with the seller’s agent or seller, as applicable, directly. When you do, say up front that you prefer to negotiate without an agent and expect lower total commissions to be paid in connection with the transaction which you can use to deduct from the starting price off the bat before you negotiate.
I have bought several homes over the years, and not once has the agent been helpful. In fact, since many pressured me or didn’t want to low ball, they were actually harmful and were summarily dismissed. In the old days they were helpful because the public did not have access to MLS and they would do the leg work. Lately most just run the MLS and show you random properties in your price range. Obviously you can do this yourself now. If, however, your time is limited and you are not familiar with the area an agent might be helpful. I feel the best way to interview is that before you tell them at all about your position ask them them to tell you what there feelings on real estate prices are and where they are headed, and then give them a general description of what you are looking for and ask them to show you the top 10 best properties that match that description and do your own research. When viewing these top 10 properties the first time, do not mention your feelings on price or what you think about the house at first. Instead, ask them theirs. If there is a mismatch, move on to another agent. There are plenty.
Also, many might disagree but those attempting to sale their shack right now MUST sell right now. They don’t have a choice. Given the fact that so many have been conditioned to believe the housing is an investment, in order to realize a return on equity, they MUST sell now…. of course unless you are dumb enough believe housing prices are trending upward.
There are many ‘unhelpful’ buyers agents, and there are a few
really good ones, friend of mine, who believes in getting his client the best deal. And that means educating them to what the market is, was, and probably will be. Ethical, probably why he isn’t rolling in the dough. Dang.
He is thorougly aware of this site, and all its inherent information for making sound judgements.
From listening to his past dealings, during this bubble, before and now..
there are alot of crooks(he doesn’t call them that-I do) out there, And alot of folks with $$ who play a big game, and aren’t ethical or honest. One of those is a big time land developer who is now being looked for, legally. Just one of many sheisters out there. Big talk. No follow through.
Sounds like you want them to do the work then beat them out a commission; no wonder you never had agents working for you.
I had no problem paying a commission to the realtor who sold our last house. He was a straight shooter, very knowledgable and competent, and did a great job of marketing the property and getting us a good price. Friends of ours who had used him previously also told me he was a very rare reator with integrity, which made all the difference in the world. However, realtors like him are the exception and not the rule. As such, you’re almost forced to assume that they’re all out to screw you, and deal with them accordingly.
What work? If they cant find the house I want, and I have to do it myself - no commission. It’s about time they start working again to find good deals. Most have been so lazy and ignorant. I have had several that got mad if I did not buy on the first weekend, or had instances where I had to say I found the following properties on the internet how come you couldn’t find them. Those ppl should not be employed.
We’ve had the same experiences, Natalie.
Agents are more useful when you’re selling a house, especially when you can’t be there to show the house all the time (or if you are selling a house in a distant location).
As for buying? I’m still debating if there is any value at all in having an agent represent me. I tend to like negotiating, and know very well what we like and are willing to spend — being willing to walk away is one of the most important tools when looking to buy, IMHO. Agents tend to get in the way and let their egos get too big. I’m not looking to “close their deal” and give them a commission check. I’m looking to do what’s right by my family.
I have also been looking in Philly Burbs (no luck so far).
Reality has not hit the Philly burbs yet (although it is hammering the city). Maybe down 10% from the peak. Some houses have even went up in asking prices that I have seen. But nothing is moving. I have seen the same house re-listed 6 times on the MLS every time the prices moves.
Fire your present realtor. You can easily find better ones. Do you own leg work. Do NOT trust anything a realtor tells you - CHECK IT OUT. Visit the court house to check the deed. Hire your own inspectors. Get your own appraisal and mortgage. Check the septic, neighbors, furnace, etc.
I have been using zipreality.com with some success. A great search tool, we use the zipreality realtor (no pressure and professional) and if you buy through them your get 1.5%-2.0% back in your pocket. If I ever do buy, it will be through them.
If you know what the negotiating points are, you don’t really need an agent. An hour with a real estate attorney and you’d be good to go.
Personally, I like giving the selling agent duel agency and submitting a low ball offer. When the agent gets both sides of the deal (commission), there’s more motivation to get the sellers to come down because, at this point the lower price doesn’t affect him nearly as much.
If you do go this route, go back to the attorney and have him/her review the contract before signing.
A couple of rules of the game:
(1) never tell an agent your rock bottom price, or any price for that matter. Just say you want the best deal possible in any given area.
(2) never buy without an inspection no matter how good the place looks or how new it is.
Personally, I like giving the selling agent duel agency ??
Like playing Russian roulette if your the agent…How can you be a fiduciary to both in competing interests ?? Its a Plaintiff attorneys dream come true…
Real estate agents have no more fiduciary duty to either party than a used car salesman does. If they did, they in all likelihood would not even exist as a profession, because primary residence real estate is not an investment, it’s a simple purchase.
Real estate agents have no more fiduciary duty to either party than a used car salesman does ??
You don’t know what your talking about….
Agent; Someone (or something) who acts on behalf of another person.
Fiduciary; When a fiduciary duty is imposed, equity requires a stricter standard of behavior than the comparable tortious duty of care at common law. It is said the fiduciary has a duty not to be in a situation where personal interests and fiduciary duty conflict, a duty not to be in a situation where his fiduciary duty conflicts with another fiduciary duty, and a duty not to profit from his fiduciary position without express knowledge and consent. A fiduciary cannot have a conflict of interest. It has been said that fiduciaries must conduct themselves “at a level higher than that trodden by the crowd”[2] and that “[t]he distinguishing or overriding duty of a fiduciary is the obligation of undivided loyalty.
(Key phrase here being “Undivided Loyalty”)…You cannot have undivided loyalty when you act as a dual agent with a fiduciary duties to both…
because primary residence real estate is not an investment, it’s a simple purchase ??
You can have a agency relationship and a fiduciary duty without even had made a sale of any type of property….
Don’t know what state you live in, but it’s allowed here in California.
As Darrell so aptly pointed out below, agents will do whatever it takes to complete a transaction.
If an agent has both sides of the deal, he’ll be doubly motivated to get the deal done - and is likely to push for a lower price since he has the entire commission, not just half.
It’s a shame that not one lawmaker has noticed the large number of licensed R-E agents who are themselves behind on a mortgage. I’ve always felt that licensed R-E agents and mortgage brokers should be excluded from any “bailout” because they should have known better. After all, they’re Professionals.
(I sent a few letters to my local rep. (Anna Eshoo) about this. Mostly for my own therapy. Her computer sends me the same form letter for any letter that mentions housing or real estate: “Anna is doing everything she can to Preserve Your Property Values!” etc, etc. I guess that response is correct for 99% of the letters she gets.)
You can expect a buyer’s agent to tell you whatever they have to, do whatever they have to, to complete a transaction and collect a large comission.
They will show you houses at or above your price point in hopes you will just “fall in love with a place” that you have to have. They will work with the seller’s agent, behind your back, figuring out what it will take to get a deal, then tell you whatever it takes to get you to go along.
Unless agents make a transaction, they starve. So, they will always tell you it’s a great time to buy.
Study shows upwards of 80% of hedge fund employees never actually knew what the word “hedge” meant
Chicago, IL—A recent study conducted by the Gallop Group showed that of 5,000 hedge fund employees surveyed during 2006-2007, 83% of respondents were unable to correctly define the word “hedge.”
“It’s just like, you know, part of the title” said one trader confidently. “Another way of saying ‘badass’ fund or ‘rockstar’ fund.” “My Range Rover is hedge,” he insisted, as if to corroborate. Other responses were equally absurd, ranging from “a Greek word” to “some Jewish dude’s last name.”
When told that hedging involved systematically eliminating risk, most subjects just stared ahead blankly. Others checked the time. Several respondents were able to eventually grasp the concept, but they found it quite novel. “Ohhh…you mean that…” said the portfolio manager of a $500M fund, as if a light bulb had gone off inside his head. He then added: “Yeah, we didn’t do that shit at all.”
I don’t doubt it. These hedge fund employees were the same business majors at college that partied during the week and slept till noon every day.
I bet those same employees can name the top 10 vodkas in the world.
Didn’t these guys ever hear of “hedging your bets”?
Odd how these funds were supposed to balance out the risks by taking contrary positions, but in the end went bust anyway.
Maybe there’s a new meaning for a “hedge fund”. A hedge is also a series of bushes where the high spots are cut down with a trimmer to the level of the lowest branches. This may be a better meaning going forward: the rich people are cut down to the level of the ordinary people.
C’mon, that was a spoof article. Upgrade your humor-chip!
Should we modify “hedge fund” to “burned hedge fund” or “trimmed hedge fund”?
The word “hedge” used as an adjective has historically indicated something or someone sleazy, unethical, corrupt. Hedge priest, hedge lawyer, and so on. Its choice for these crooked investment vehicles is too ironic to be accidental.
Wouldn’t the name hedge fund be more appropriately changed to Ponzi fund?
From Hyman Minsky:
Three distinct income-debt relations for economic units, which are labeled as hedge, speculative, and Ponzi finance, can be identified. Hedge financing units are those which can fulfill all of their contractual payment obligations by their cash flows: the greater the weight of equity financing in the liability structure, the greater the likelihood that the unit is a hedge financing unit. Speculative finance units are units that can meet their payment commitments on ‘income account’ on their liabilities, even as they cannot repay the principal out of income cash flows. Such units need to ‘roll over’ their liabilities – issue new debt to meet commitments on maturing debt. For Ponzi units, the cash flows from operations are not sufficient to fill either the repayment of principal or the interest on outstanding debts by their cash flows from operations. Such units can sell assets or borrow. Borrowing to pay interest or selling assets to pay interest (and even dividends) on common stocks lowers the equity of a unit, even as it increases liabilities and the prior commitment of future incomes.
Please tell me this is from The Onion.
Yeah, read above. Man needs a humor-chip upgrade.
Bonus: should be cheap in the upcoming sales.
Not the Onion….
http://www.leveragedsellout.com/2008/11/study-shows-upwards-of-80-of-hedge-fund-employees-never-actually-knew-what-the-word-hedge-meant/
Sigh. That’s one of many, many sites my cherished employer has blocked. So, I deeply appreciate the cut-and-paste!
The Onion publishes on Thursdays, so late on Thursday and Early Friday, Onion alert reaches Elmo levels.
Still scary how accurate the Onion is becoming.
According to the British Financial Services Authority, who carried out a survey on public financial literacy in 2006, one in ten people did not know which was the better discount for a £250 television: £30 or 10%.
59% of American high school seniors did not know the difference between social security, a 401 k and a company pension in 2008 (According to a University of Buffalo study).
Not from the Onion
But from “The Ascent of Money” by Niall Ferguson, which I received from my husband, along with a Kiehl’s gift set, so my hands won’t get too dry turning the 401 pages of money history and bubble drama. (He’s a very nice kind of husband.)
Lots of middle-aged people don’t know the difference between 401k and IRAs, or defined contribution and defined benefit, Medicare and Medicaid..it’s really kinda scary. Especially when you gently tried to point out the difference and you’re brushed off with “oh whatever you call it - ” People are attached to their ignorance.
In Montana,
Very good observation! What’s worse is when you talk to business OWNERS and get basically the same response? Having a sense of empowerment that comes from a “good place” ( like having done your homework and research ) is a wonderful, wonderful thing.
Having your sense of empowerment come from a “bad place” like your own laziness, incorrect @$$umptions or the guy that’s the last to leave the break room is a terrible, terrible thing.
It also gives your employer the perfect right to punk you every chance they get. ( As we’re seeing w/ employer matches from coast to coast right now! ) These people were the same geniuses that brought us the housing bubble. You know, ARM, O-p-t-i-o-n ARM, what’s the difference right?
“People are attached to their ignorance.”
Montana, brilliantly written.
pretty damn scary out with people who look similar to us, got educated, similarly to us, live similarly to us, and yet….
Dumb as rocks and proud of it, they are.
Big $5.00 words also get in the way of the general population from “getting it”. And the PTB know this. Use it, as did this current administration via Rove.
Bankers know that they can make lots and lots of money from people that don’t get it. That’s why they make it as hard as possible to get it, by making more and more complicated financial products.
Most on this blog are fare more financially educated than the average Joe - most certainly know what the word “hedge” means, but I venture that few here actually know how a hedge fund works. I certainly don’t, aside perhaps from some vague notion.
Putting aside some PC-ness - that’s why it’s so easy to make money from old people, and thus why south Florida is so incredible full of scammers. Old people don’t think as clearly as young people, and are thus more easily confused by even simple finances - so they’re more apt to trust someone else to take care of their finances. It’s a lot easier that way.
“who look similar to us”
Right exactly. Again I think this is one of those issues where a “little bit of knowledge can be dangerous”.
A friend recently pointed out to me that while he was watching Forrest Gump he noticed that he simply “dummied up” while in Viet Nam. He wore every part of his uniform just as he had been instructed in boot camp. ( “He” survived, a lot of “cool” guys *didn’t )
I think you can apply that to a LOT of things and this is one of them. Everyone has had to sit through the 401k enrollment presentation and aside from their home this is probably one of the biggest things in their life! Then why do I see all these people chatting, yawning and even sleeping? Most of these people just cash them out when they leave/get fired.
Had they just “dummied up” and followed the basic instructions, they’d all have been a lot better off. But NOOOOO! They’re fricken geniuses.
“I venture that few here actually know how a hedge fund works”
Create fund on good reputation, promising unreal returns. Pay first investors deliciously with next investors money. Garner more and more investors as words spreads like wildfire that you’re “the man”. Live like a king, handsomely rewarding a close few. When jig is up, publicly state that it was a “scam”, nothing but a “ponzi scheme”. Spend short time in precinct, then bail out, and go enjoy mansion and money.
LMAO! And here I was pining away, wishing I was a big enough player to be in one of those fabulous funds that made money for you even when everyone else was losing.
Good thing peons like me don’t have any serious money to play with.
Speaking of “humor chips” what is up w/ Ben’s advertiser at the top?
“Chedda gets Cheddar”
?
Evidently “Chedda” got a free check from the gub’mint for $12K. He used the money to get some ‘new’ tatoos and wants to show YOU how to do it too! Now ‘that’s’ LMAO material.
That ad rocked!
You can’t BUY entertainment like that.
Yeah, all that guy needed was some ‘Booty Sweat’ and a few hootchie girls to makes dat’ complete.
Maybe chedder means gold..I can’t keep up with the slang…
Oh dear, I’ve been pwned!
can you provide a link SUGuy
“Study shows upwards of 80% of hedge fund employees never actually knew what the word “hedge” meant”
Example number 4267 of “It’s not what you know, it’s who you know.”
Problem is, you can’t run an entire national economy, let alone a globe spanning one, on “brown-nose economics.”
Yes, I know it was humor. But as someone else stated, it’s scary how the accurate the Onion is sometimes.
Based on the “bad news is good for stock prices” theory, today should be a great one for retail stocks.
Wall Street Journal
* BUSINESS
* DECEMBER 26, 2008
Retail Sales Plummet
By ANN ZIMMERMAN, JENNIFER SARANOW and MIGUEL BUSTILLO
Price-slashing failed to rescue a bleak holiday season for beleaguered retailers, as sales plunged across most categories on shrinking consumer spending, according to new data released Thursday.
Did you miss my missive† about Fifth Ave. yesterday?
† sorry.
From the article, luxury sales plummeted 29% (or 35% depending on how you count), which matches exactly with the description of the sales people at Harry Winston buffing their nails. Someone said that Wall Street types would stop in at Tiffany’s on the way home for a necklace for the wife.
I posted a comment earlier but it got eaten.
The staff at Harry Winston had to be seen to be believed. My sister took a few pics but a picture cannot quite capture that peculiar mixture of hauteur mixed with pure desperation.
We are above you, and look down on you but please throw your shekels in our direction.
Quite entertaining. I am sooooooooooo looking forward to 2009.
And the same data in graphical form.
ROTFLMAO
Financial Times
Wall Street stocks post modest gains
By Anuj Gangahar in New York
Published: December 26 2008 14:44 | Last updated: December 26 2008 15:28
US stocks moved slightly higher on Friday, amid low trading volume, despite a report showing disappointing retail sales during the vital holiday period.
Big price cuts did little to boost a dismal holiday period for retailers, with sales down across most categories, according to data released on Thursday.
Fair is foul and foul is fair,
hover through the fog and filthy air.
Right, and now the Retailers want some bailout bucks too by having states waive sales tax for like three days. They’re really excited about it and imploring B.O to employ it right away!
Yo, Doofus! All people will do is -wait- until that rolls around to do their shopping!
From the article: year over year DROP:
Online sales — 2%
Footwear — 14
Men’s apparel — 14
Furniture — 20
Women’s apparel — 23
Eletronics — 27
Luxury — 35
All negative. This confirms nycboy’s (or nyc dj’s) observation that Harry Winston was dead. It also confirms why my Wal-mart was dead at 9:30 this morning. The parking lot was busy at noon though. People are spending for necessities.
A friend told me that the Wall Street types used to stop in at Tiffany’s on the way home from work to buy a diamond for the wife, the same way I’d stop at the 7-11 for milk. Yeesh. It reminds me of the Gilded Age stories in my textbook, when women used sprinkle gold dust on their hair just to show they were rich enough to waste gold.
I have a question. How many more Madoff type investment scams may be out there?
Could his scheme possibly be one of many ponzi schemes sold as investments that will blow up as depositers begin to request withdrawals?
“How many more Madoff type investment schemes may be out there?”
A friend wrote a letter to Barron’s 12-15 years ago arguing that with the popularity of 401Ks for long term investing, Ponzi schemes would become more common. So far, I think he was right.
http://www.counterpunch.com/martens12222008.html
Madof’s Money Trail Leads to Washington (or how contributing to the right political insiders can buy you years of top cover to run a giant Ponzi scheme).
Thank you for your posts & links, NOVA.
http://www.larouchepub.com/hzl/2008/3550deflat_2day_hyper_tom.html
Crisis Escalates: Deflation Today, Hyperinflation Tomorrow
http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2008/3549bailouts_wont_save.html
Bailouts Won’t Save a Global Economy That’s Breaking Apart.
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Doesn’t the smell of cash depend on where the cash has previously been? For instance, some cash smells like cocaine.
Actually, there was some study about how some absurd percentage (90%+, as I recall) of banknotes had traces of cocaine (as determined by a hypersensitive test.)
In the 90s, a Miami cocaine dealer was in court. The DA sent money taken from the dealer to an independent crime lab, the money had detectable amounts of cocaine on it. The dealer’s lawyer hired the same lab to take money out of several local banks. The lab analyzed the money and found measurable amounts of cacaine on over 90% of the money. The dealers lawyer asked the judge for some money from his pocket to analyze but the judge refused
You crack me up hoz…:)
My mom dabbed me with arpege the other day and I felt rich.
Promise her anything but give her Arpege wrapped in greenbacks.
So do Benjamins smell different that Georges?
Man,
There is a sucker born every minute. Today it’s every second.
Det. James ‘Jimmy’ McNulty: I got to ask you. If every time Snotboogie would grab the money and run away, why’d you even let him in the game?
Witness: What?
Det. James ‘Jimmy’ McNulty: If Snotboogie always stole the money, why’d you let him play?
Witness: You got to, this is America, man.
I love that show. I think I watched all five seasons in a row (hurrah for netflix!)
Omaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar!
What show is this?
The Wire.
+1 Great series (I saw it on hbo, not netflix though)
Ok people, what show you talking about??
Marlo Stanfield found a use for all of those vacant houses.
Washington Post
Editorial
Fading Housing Hope
A mortgage bailout plan’s paltry results, and their lessons
Friday, December 26, 2008; Page A22
This is from a Washington Post editorial I just posted. Frank’s rescue is, frankly speaking, a flop.
Basically, the plan was to offer as much as $300 billion in government-guaranteed home loans to people whose current mortgages exceed the value of their houses; 400,000 people would benefit, it was said. Well, the early returns are in, and the program is, at this point, a flop. There have been only 312 applications, according to the Department of Housing and Urban Development. At that rate, the three-year program would help only about 5,400 borrowers.
We hate to say we told you so, but — we told you so. Except that we never guessed that the program would perform quite this poorly. The Bush administration and the program’s congressional author, House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.), are now engaged in a blame game, with Bush officials saying that the program is a victim of burdensome conditions imposed by Congress and Frank asserting that he only agreed to those conditions as the price of a politically acceptable bill.
How does one become a bank? Do you have to be too-big-to-fail to qualify on short notice?
And who is this “primary regulator” referenced in the article?
GMAC May Gain as Much as $6.3 Billion, Analyst Says (Update1)
By David Mildenberg
Dec. 26 (Bloomberg) — GMAC LLC, the auto- and home-lender that won Federal Reserve approval to become a bank holding company, may be in line for as much as $6.3 billion in capital from the U.S. rescue plan, CreditSights Inc. said.
The lender also may issue as much as $17.5 billion of guaranteed debt under the government-backed Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program, CreditSights analyst Richard Hofmann said in a report issued late yesterday.
GMAC, which is the primary lender to General Motors Corp. auto dealers, is facing a midnight deadline for debt holders to exchange $38 billion in bonds as part of its plan to reduce debt. The lender said it needed three-quarters of investors to approve the swap, and as of Dec. 17 holders of 58 percent of eligible notes had tendered.
“We believe GMAC has been less than clear in detailing how it would achieve adequate capital levels,” Hofmann wrote. “But with the primary regulator on board, the capital raise machinations seem almost a moot point.”
The primary regulator is one of those dunking birds. The secondary regulator is the machine that goes “ping!”
You left out the bobble head.
How does one become a bank? Do you have to be too-big-to-fail to qualify on short notice?
Not to go on an on about this Niall Ferguson book (The Ascent of Money) but he talks about the Medicis as the first western lender to design itself to be intertwined with lots of different interests as opposed to just amassing lots of capital/debt. Better than just being a usurer, subject to sudden loss in 1 or 2 ventures or subject to public backlash (in a Shylock manner). In a way, he is saying that a bank is a loan shark which is too big to fail. And this is before we even get to fractional reserve banking and all this other stuff.
This message is a very clumsy synopsis and in no way endorsed by Niall Ferguson
AUTOMOTIVE
First Bank of Motown
GM shares fire on all cylinders on news that financing unit GMAC has won bank status.
I read the PR as the Fed, since they just came on board a couple days ago.
Every time the FDIC closes one small bad bank, the Fed creates two bigger bad banks.
Merry Christmas, Merry Christmas, Merry Merry Christmas to you all! It still is Christmas, until you sober up from what you drank on Christmas day, I believe. So it’ll be Christmas for me until next month, ahahahaha!
I’m in Utarr now. It was a hidjeous drive. I alternately screamed, cried, prayed, and cussed. Sometimes I did all those things at once, in order to multi-task efficiently. Lessee, about 800 miles in 4-wheel drive. That’s why I ain’t been posting, I been busy living in mortal terror instead. I don’t like snow quite as much as I used to.
But then I drove up to my mom’s on the day before Christmas and I bounded out with joy and excitement and Esperanza the goat spotted me and recalled the treats from this summer and the orange peels dipped in sugar from last Christmas and she bawled out a noisy and enthusiastic greeting. She has the peculiarest bleat I’ve ever heard, like this: ‘Blaaaaaaaat! BLAAAaaaAAAAT!’ It sounds somewhat like a yodeling barf, except enthusiastic and on purpose. I really wish I could perform it for all of you in person, so you too could enjoy the glorious Sound of Esperanza. Anyway, I ran up the steps and hugged my mom and then she fed me full of ham and bean soup and cheese sandwiches, and it was delicious. I am SO glad to be here!
Sister Bexsy came down from Salt Lake with brother Big Al and I ran out to greet them. I admired Bexsy’s giant round white stomach–she allowed that grumpy Nipponese fellow she married to impregnate her again. As if the world does not have enough grumpy midgets in it alREADy.
Seppo, her first, toddled around shouting ‘Twinkle!’ and ‘Cars!’ That’s all he can say. We all just tell Bexsy it’s okay, he’s probably an idiot-savant and will turn out to play the cello super-good, or something useful like that.) He shouts his two words in a hoarse little smoker’s voice that is quite cute.
Meanwhile my intelligent and wise brother stumped around in and out of the house looking for something to deface and/or defile the ‘Precious Temple given to him by his Heavenly Father’ (his body, and baybee, THAT particular ‘Temple’ has been ransacked better’n when the Visigoths attacked Rome.) But he had little luck, because a thick blanket of snow is presently covering all the rusted tools, rusty machines and rusty vehicles that he normally uses to puncture and scar himself up with. Poor boy–but there was snowmobiling later, and he did manage to damage himself somewhat, at last.
Ahhhhh….how cheery I feel! I’m going to go paw through my old room, which is packed with books, some of which I shall carry back with me. What sort of silly person buys so many books? * shakes head in astonishment *
My sister and I spent our day walking down Fifth Ave. (well, we were headed to MoMA but I forgot it’s closed on Wed) and making fun of all the “designer labels” whose stores were TOTALLY empty, as in, quite literally, zero customers.
We took lots of pictures of empty stores, and verily, she has a far sharper tongue than me so it was all quite entertaining.
I think she p*ssed off a sales clerk by asking whether the store “would be going bankrupt soon or bankrupt later”.
Sigh, you just can’t buy memories like that.
‘We took lots of pictures of empty stores, and verily, she has a far sharper tongue than me so it was all quite entertaining.’
A far sharper tongue than YOU?! Wow.
*becomes wide-eyed and silent with awed respect *
But, can she bleat like a happy goat? A crazy happy goat?
You know what—somehow I sense that she can.
She can.
She squealed, “Oh look! the Manolo Blahnik’s are on sale. They’re not feeling any love any more.”
I think several women gave her very nasty looks, and she just giggled.
Then she took pictures (which I will post when I get them.)
Yar! I wanna see the pictures! And I want Ben to put up some sort of audio gallery, so you can post and we all can hear your sister’s goat bleating rendition, too. Start the New Year right, see.
My buddy’s wife enjoys going into the 99c Store and repeatedly asking how much everything costs.
I was the hero at my mom’s house because I found her long lost wedding photo book. She also made me a cheese sandwich. Oly, we are waiting for your photo to post on the updated HBB photo blog.
“and I bounded out with joy and excitement ”
you remind me of a happy-go-lucky golden retriever. yep, thats it.
rock on Oly Gal
‘you remind me of a happy-go-lucky golden retriever. yep, thats it.’
Hmmmm.
*puts on thinky face *
I guess that’s…good?
Anyhow, I know waaay more words* than a golden retriever.
*At least five (5) more.
Have fun in Utarrr, Oly. You’re as madcap as ever
Well, FINALLY, Oly (IUFC). I’ve been scouring the internet all danged morning for an entertaining Christmas story. Yours did the trick.
It would have been even funnier had you been here to actually witness Al running around in the snow howling in agony and leaking here and there after knocking all the snow off an entire apple tree. With his face. My, it was comical! Even the snowmobile giggled. I did stop laughing long enough to throw some snowballs at him, in an attempt to quench his agony with refreshing snow. He was curiously unappreciative.
*sigh *
You just can’t please some people.
Oly,
Glad to hear you made it. When the weather reports came on I was thinking about you and hoping you were okay.
Thanks, sanfran. I appreciate it.
I’m sure you’ll tell me to stop being PC and grow a sense of humor, but calling Japanese folks nipponese midgets is not nice. My son is Japanese, and I cringe to hear him described in this way.
‘…and I cringe to hear him described in this way.
Well, I don’t know your son, you short, thick, heavily seasoned sausage*. See, I was talking about the Japanese midget IIIII happen to know.
Hey, and you know what?! He’s here right now, and he’s pretty good-humored, for a change. Christmas Spirit, perhaps, or else maybe abundant Christmas spirits. I’ll go smell his breath.
*Possibly you won’t like that, either. But see, that’s what a knockwurst IS. I know, because my gran is German, and serves it now and then. Tasty!
Oh please, Knockwurst. If you want political correctness, take yourself and the stick up your butt someplace else. Oly’s comment clearly wasn’t mean-spirited and if memory serves, the Japanese used to refer to themselves as Nipponese, though the term “nip” was WWII-era derogatory.
So it’ll be Christmas for me until next month, ahahahaha!
You are more correct than you might think. Today is the second of the 12 days of Christmas.
Mr Market is trying oh so hard to sell off on the dismal retail sales results, but it looks like the PPT is blasting in liquidity to hold the market at the flat line.
Anyone have any good Christmas stories? Not much going on in upstate.
If you read about some crazy, “man from Florida” getting picked up by the Onondaga Sheriff for frolicking buck in the snow, tipsy on late-harvest Vignoles, and I don’t post for several days, please send bail money to Ben.
“please send bail money to Ben.”
Already have. But it’s earmarked for Ben’s legal fees for when TPTB finally realize what a threat he is to the REIC and lock him up for crimes against real estate.
It’s been my experience that “buck” men in the snow receive punishments other than being locked in a local jail. Please don’t ask me how I know that or what the doctors have to do in that instance.
This ‘expert’ must have missed the memo about the subprime lending collapse in the first half of 2007. Get a clue, bro’ — the crisis started in early 2007, and has been ongoing for two full years with no sign yet of abatement.
I personally can’t put much stock in predictions based on a seriously flawed premise.
Wall Street Journal
* OPINION
* DECEMBER 26, 2008
The Economic News Isn’t All Bleak
By Zachary Karabell
We may be in for a long slide. But there are also reasons to think the economy could rebound quickly.
…
It’s common to hear comparisons to the Great Depression, when economies around the globe shrank precipitously, or to the 1970s, when an oil shock gave way to steep contraction of GDP growth in the developed world and a concomitant collapse in energy prices. But those occurred over the course of years. What happened since the collapse of Lehman on Sept. 15 was a global, synchronous cessation of all but nondiscretionary economic activity in the wake of the near-collapse of global credit markets. And it happened over the course of weeks, not years. Data from October and November show shrinkage of 10%, 20% and often considerably more in corporate earnings, car sales, home prices, commodities and a host of other areas. But analysts and strategists now take this as the “new normal” and are projecting into 2009 and beyond as if it were.
THE RECKONING
Chinese Savings Helped Inflate American Bubble
“In the past decade, China has invested upward of $1 trillion, mostly earnings from manufacturing exports, into American government bonds and government-backed mortgage debt. That has lowered interest rates and helped fuel a historic consumption binge and housing bubble in the United States.
China, some economists say, lulled American consumers, and their leaders, into complacency about their spendthrift ways.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/26/world/asia/26addiction.html?_r=1&hp
(Preface to the article is a quote by by new boyfriend, Niall)
This is a buncha hoo-ey. Savings can never be bad for an economy.
This is BB’s pet theory, and it’s a load of steamin’ horsesh*t.
It’s basically Bastiat’s “broken window fallacy” in disguise, and that has been soundly trounced.
Totally agree with you, FPSS, but the transition from a debt-fueled economy to a savings-fueled economy is going to be very painful, no?
Any thoughts on why The Precious went from $846 to $872 per ounce over the course of a few minutes after 1p EST? Asset price movements seem to become ever-more erratic these days.
Extraordinarily low liquidity (= market makers are on holiday too.)
Good point. Thin markets make for awesome short-term volatility.
Hey darlin’, are you still holding on to SSO?
Long since terminated. It was an overnight trade not a hold.
I’m thinking there will probably be an Obama-ascending- to-the-presidency rally between now and swearing-in day.
Sitting out here in the ocean, calmly waiting for that wave.
Oh yeah, after all we do live in Obamatopia™!
‘Sitting out here in the ocean, calmly waiting for that wave.
You’re posting from a surfboard?! Awesome!
You’re posting from a surfboard?! Awesome!
Cool!
If everybody had an ocean
Across the u.s.a.
Then everybodyd be surfin
Like californi-a
Youd seem em wearing their baggies
Huarachi sandals too
A bushy bushy blonde hairdo
Surfin u.s.a.
Solar flare @ 21:59:32:99:01 hours GMT
Ah, sunlight…
There was but the sun and the eye from the first… Thoreau
“If we will admit time into our thoughts at all, the mythologies, those vestiges of ancient poems, so to speak, the world’s inheritance, still reflecting some of their original splendor, like the fragments of clouds tinted by the rays of the departed sun: …these are the materials and hints for a history of the rise and progress of the race; how, from the condition of ants, it arrived at the condition of men, and arts were gradually invented. Let a thousand surmises shed some light on this story. We will not be confined by historical, even geological periods, which would allow us to doubt of a progress in human affairs. If we rise above this wisdom for the day, we shall expect that this morning of the race, in which it has been supplied with the simplest necessaries … will be succeeded by a day of equally progressive splendor; that, in the lapse of the divine periods, other divine agents and godlike men will assist to elevate the race as much above its present condition. But we do not know much about it.”
http://www.cooperativeindividualism.org/thoreau-henry_history-viewed-from-a-river.html
Did anyone else experience a spike of around 30 cents per gallon in gasoline this past week?
I thought I saw about a 10-15 cent spike for about a day or two at most, then it went right back down.
Here in California, gas is going to spike due to a refinery company going bankrupt and another refinery had a key piece of equipment malfunction.
Here’s the link:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/12/25/BUBB14URPV.DTL
Oil did some funky jumping around at that time too - down a buck in about 3 minutes at 1:30, then back up a buck and a half within 10 minutes or so at 2:30.
Like FPSS mentions - seems like low liquidity due to low volume. You would think though that the same kind of thing would happen on the stock markets, but they usually don’t swing much on light days.
“Like FPSS mentions - seems like low liquidity due to low volume”
My guess was Govt. workers definitely don’t work on holidays,and thus push it down….?
As an aside..Any clue why the gold lease rates took that bizarre looking dive Dec.19 ? …bottom left chart on Kitco.
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20081226/ACQRTT200812261541RTTRADERUSEQUITY_0223.htm&&mypage=newsheadlines&title=Gold%20Surges%20Amid%20Geopolitical%20Tensions%20Friday
Nasdaq is attributing today’s gold surge to geopolitical tensions, i.e. Israel posed to invade Gaza and India-Pakistan saber rattling.
First of all, no one, absolutely no one, needs agents. The only reason they exist is because they have the information that others need and they control that information. Truth is, in Texas, the seller and buyer can choose a title company who will do ALL the work to get closed. Real estate people do marketing simply by putting signs in the yard and inputting data into the MLS, which the industry controls. Moreover, some agents have been tied to lending institutions and actually get fees from them as well. So, being a broker, and having worked my own deals since before I ever had a sales license, let me tell you this: Don’t expect anything from a “buyer’s agent.” Agents look out for themselves and you might as well deal with the seller’s agent. Let that agent know only what you want her/him to know, nothing else. Nothing. If you have a low offer, let that agent know that you’re having difficulty going higher. That agent just might poor-mouth your offer to the seller, after all, no closing, no commission.
Best advice ever.
Here’s someone who knows how to play the game.
Listen up ya’ll.
How far back can the roots of the housing bubble be traced? Here is one development, documented on the PimpCo web site, which suggests it goes back to at least 1981. I suppose others could reasonably argue it goes back all the way to the establishment of New Deal financial institutions like Fannie Mae (1938) and the FDIC (1933).
For the record, let it be noted that the pay-option mortgage, with negative amortization, which has witnessed explosive growth in recent years is actually a rather old product, just not one that was widely used in the first two decades of its creation. To the best of my knowledge, the inventor of the product was Golden West Financial right here in California in 1981. Here’s the description of the loan from Golden West’s 10-K filing of December 2005:
“After bank regulators authorized ARMs in 1981 to help mortgage lenders better manage interest rate risk, we and other major residential portfolio lenders in California and elsewhere evaluated various ARM products to find solutions that would benefit borrowers and also allow us to manage interest rate risk without assuming undue credit risk. The product selected by most major residential portfolio lenders on the West Coast, and various others throughout the country, was a product often described as an “option ARM” because of the payment options available to borrowers. For the past 25 years, we have continued to originate our version of the option ARM because we believe that borrowers benefit from its structural features and because we have developed pricing, underwriting, appraisal, and other processes over the years to help us manage potential credit risks. Although we have originated some other types of ARMs, almost all of our ARMs are option ARMs.”
Best foreign film of the year (highly recommended viewing for all Fed governors):
Die Fälscher
The Preciousssssss….yessssss…….
….and the original american spirit rises again:
http://press.freelakotabank.com/index.php
Here is a link to a short (10 pg.), highly relevant paper by Hyman Minsky, in case anyone is looking for New Year’s reading material:
The Financial Instability Hypothesis
Lemma: The largest members of the Megabank cartel consolidate wealth and power with increased financial instability.
No one saw this coming…
A perfect ending to a most surreal year.
Christmas lights decorated the roof of Pardo’s home and plastic nutcracker soldiers and striped candy canes poked out of the neatly trimmed lawn. A black Cadillac Escalade and a white Hummer were parked in the driveway.
http://www.salon.com/wires/ap/us/2008/12/26/D95AIU3G0_santa_shooting/index.html
I keep hoping for evidence to emerge that Pardo was a real estate investor who owned ten flip homes, but so far no such luck.
test!
The Lakota people = america circa Declaration of Independence
Treasury & Federal Reserve = The Bank of England circa same period.
watch the fireworks ensue!!!
oops! here is the link:
http://www.freelakotabank.com
How long before they get shut down? I live in Cd’A, ID… Just a few miles south of where the FEDs confiscated the “Ron Paul” coins. Looks like they are on the same path. Don’t get me wrong, I love the idea, I just don’t want to see my assets get seized.
+42
I’d love to see this idea really gain traction.
Santa Claus Bailout Hearings… Yep even the jolly old fat man is short on cash.
http://blip.tv/file/1592405
driving the kids out today in a break from the weather, I noticed Daughtry is already on a Kidzbop CD. Agghhhhhh!!
It’s the 21st century version of “Musak”, like how back in the day when you heard Zeppelin in the elevator @ Macys. Whoaaa. or in a Cadillac commercial an hr ago !
somehow it seemed kinda spooky. I remembered thinking scornfully that they were sellouts . . . until later you learn more about the music industry & realize sometimes bands have little control over their own tunes.
(I need a petite jewish sidekick and a D-list comedian or two as foils. wonder if sarah silverman would return my call? oh wait, that recipe is already on boil)
Test^(TM)
You mean: Test™?
Yes!!!! Gimme gimme gimme…
This text is superscripted!
If you type:
test™
you will get:
test™
I always wondered how y’all did that.
Testing…
Realtor&trade
Dang.
War on Terra©
Dang.
Realtor(tm)(TM)(C)
Dang.
Why aren’t my sups suping?
Should I &sup thusly?
Dang!
Why not &sup if &trade works? There’s no rhyme nor reason to it…
Even&trade doesn’t work for me…
test™
oh&bother!;
It works™.
You need an ampersand followed by the word “trade” followed by a semicolon. No spaces in between all seven characters.
OK already, I’m a retard™.
Oh&bother; again.
It just takes a little while to get the hang of it.
Test™
Realtor™
Test©
Whoh nellie. …
If you do
test + ampersand + copy + ;
that gives you copyright too.
You nailed it!
Okay,
I have to give this a shot.
Dang™
Whoo™ it works.
Don’t get too carried away before Ben bans me for teaching the hoi polloi.
Hey, I’m not hoi polloi, I’m a Pinkie Up Gal™
Realtor©
Realtor™
Realtor®??
Realtor ™
Financial Times
Japan suffers record fall in output
By Mure Dickie in Tokyo
Published: December 26 2008 04:02 | Last updated: December 26 2008 04:02
Japanese industry suffered a record fall in output in November as unemployment continued to rise and household spending kept sliding, the latest set of gloomy figures from the world’s second-largest economy showed on Friday.
November’s 8.1 per cent month-on-month decline in industrial output, which followed a long series of bad news from Japanese government statisticians, was “particularly striking”, Kaoru Yosano, minister for economic and fiscal policy, told a news conference.
Looks like they decoupled too.
Milan (AsiaNews) - In the United States, the danger of debt insolvency is growing, putting at risk the currency reserves of foreign countries, China chief among them. According to new figures published by Bloomberg in recent days (Nov. 25, 2008 [1]), the American government has employed a total of 8.549 trillion dollars to stop the financial crisis. This means a total of about 24-25.4 trillion dollars of direct or indirect public debt weighing on American taxpayers. The complete tally must also include the debt - about 5-6 trillion dollars - of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are now quasi-public companies, because 79.9% of their capital is controlled by a public entity, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which manages them as a public conservatorship.
In 2007, public debt in the United States was 10.6 trillion dollars, compared to a GDP (gross domestic product) of 13.811 trillion dollars. Public debt in 2007 was therefore 76.75% of GDP. In just one year, direct and indirect public debt have grown to more than 100% of GDP, reaching 176.9% to 184.2%. These percentages exclude the debt guaranteed by policies underwritten by AIG, also nationalized, and liabilities for health spending (Medicaid and Medicare) and pensions (Social Security)[2]. By way of comparison, the Maastricht accords require member states of the European Union (EU) to reduce their public debt to no more than 60% of GDP. Again by way of comparison, in one of the EU countries with the largest public debt, Italy, public debt in 2007 was equal to 104% of GDP.
In 2007, 61.82% [3] of America’s public debt was held by foreign investors, most of them Asian. So the U.S. public debt held by nonresident foreigners is equal to about 109.39% (113.86%) of GDP. According to a study by the International Monetary Fund, countries with more than 60% of their public debt held by nonresident foreigners run a high risk of currency crisis and insolvency, or debt default. On the historical level, there are no recent examples of countries with currencies valued at reserve status that have lapsed into public debt insolvency. There are also few or no precedents of such a vast and rapid expansion of public debt.
Just came back from the GA Aquarium, which was PACKED……with foreigners ….as well as downtown ATL…wait at all the surrounding restaurants…no recession at $27 a ticket plus $8 more for the show!
Considering that in most of Europe you can’t get a pizza for $27 its no surprise that foreigners might have taken their Christmas holiday in the land of the cheap.
Anyone want to speculate Iran will declare peace with Israel the market will go up 2000 points in 3 days so the wall street bozos can get their hugeeeee bonus, then someone kills off the Iran pres and it drops 3000 points in January?
Here’s an example of Central Coast insanity:
Owner will carry, only $295k… Los Osos, CA
slo.craigslist.org/reb/946322860.html
Good night™
Why are many people almost convinced housing prices are bottoming?
4.5% interest rates, aint the bottom (as it relates to prices).
Only significantly higher rates will ultimately put the floor in (on prices). But you can only have higher interest rates with inflation.
Inflation of what?
The hope is that the “low” interest rate will revive the market and that the bottom is behind™ us
test,,