The Housing Bubble

Taint enough… What about all the other beggars in line?

U.S. governors seek $1 trillion federal assistance…

PHILADELPHIA (Reuters) - Governors of five U.S. states urged the federal government to provide $1 trillion in aid to the country’s 50 states to help pay for education, welfare and infrastructure as states struggle with steep budget deficits amid a deepening recession.

The governors of New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Ohio and Wisconsin — all Democrats — said the initiative for the two-year aid package was backed by other governors and follows a meeting in December where governors called on President-elect Barack Obama to help them maintain services in the face of slumping revenues.

Gov. David Paterson of New York said 43 states now have budget deficits totaling some $100 billion as tax revenues plunge.

“It’s clear that the federal government needs to step in and jump-start the economy,” said Gov. Deval Patrick of Massachusetts.

The latest package calls for $350 billion to create jobs by building or repairing roads, bridges and other public works; $250 billion to maintain education; and another $250 billion in “counter-cyclical” spending such as extending unemployment benefits and food stamps, which are typically a responsibility of the states.

The remainder would be used to fund middle-class tax cuts, stimulate the embattled housing market, and stem the tide of home foreclosures through a loan-modification program.

Gov. Jon Corzine of New Jersey said he hoped some of the $700 billion authorized by Congress in the Troubled Asset Relief Program would be available to help the housing market.

The governors said during a conference call with reporters that the plan had been discussed with Congressional leaders and the incoming administration, which had indicated its willingness to help.

“The Obama team has been very receptive in listening to us,” said Gov. Jim Doyle of Wisconsin. He said “quite a number” of other governors back the initiative.

The Republican Governors Association, however, said the level of federal aid being sought would create a burden for the future.

“The proposal by the Democratic governors goes beyond things like ’shovel-ready’ infrastructure projects and is essentially a bailout of these states’ general funds,” Nick Ayers, executive director of the Republican Governors Association, said in a statement. “Now is the time to focus on finding cost-effective ways to provide essential services without burdening future generations with ever greater debt.”

Doyle of Wisconsin said the plan would allow states to maintain essential services at about the current level until 2010, when the national economy is expected to begin a recovery.

The proposal comes amid expectations that the Obama administration, which takes office on January 20, will provide hundreds of billions of dollars in economic stimulus to boost the shrinking U.S. economy and halt the loss of jobs.

Paterson of New York said his state’s budget deficit has surged to $15.4 billion currently from $5 billion in April 2008, despite a 3.2 percent cut in the education budget.

Corzine said the money called for represents about 3 percent to 3.5 percent of the economy, equivalent to the amount that the economy is expected to contract by over the next two quarters.

“… But housing will probably bottom out by spring, many forecasters now argue. The Federal Reserve will play a role in making this happen by buying mortgage-backed securities and, in doing so, lowering the rate on 30-year mortgages to less than 5 percent, which is roughly the present level. That will encourage not only home buying, but also refinancing.

“In the midst of recession, with very sour moods, housing activity begins to improve because we get a big decline in mortgage rates,” said Robert Barbera, chief economist for ITT Investment Technology Group.

Then, too, the basic demographic demand for new homes, the forecasters say, is 1.7 million units a year. That many are not being built today, but with inventories shrinking and prices stabilizing, home construction will revive, many forecasters argue, contributing once again to economic growth.

“It is not fun to be a portent of doom,” Mr. Barbera said. “And even now in these doomlike times, we in the forecasting profession say it won’t last.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/03/business/economy/03econ.html?_r=1&hp

Paul Kennedy Says New World Order Will Emerge:

The biggest question concerns the U.S. My instinct tells me it will lose ground in 2009. I simply don’t see how the Treasury can print $1 trillion to cover deficit spending, offer those bills at very low interest rates, and expect foreigners (not Americans, because we don’t have the savings) to buy them, persuading the world to keep afloat its greatest debtor since Phillip II of Spain. Why should sensible Chinese investors do that when they can buy Swiss bonds, gold, or Scottish real- estate? Yet if Asians decline to buy tens of billions of Treasuries each month in 2009, U.S. interest rates will have to go up again.

So: India up, China up, Germany up (all relatively). The developing world down, Russia down, most of Europe and Japan down, and President Barack Obama’s America down and down. I’d like to believe I am very wrong. I worry that I’m not.

(Paul Kennedy is Professor of History and Director of International Security Studies at Yale University. He is the author/editor of 19 books, including The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. The views expressed are his own.)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aV9_ZOMJf14s

–
Good morning and happy 2009 to all HBBers.

Case-Shiller prices are up 40% in real terms (adjusting for CPI) since the end of 1995. End of 1995 was a period when the economy had fully recovered from the prior recession and the bubbles lay in the future, i.e., a some what normal economy.

I fully expect the home prices in most areas to go back to 1995 prices, first in real terms and then in nominal terms as the deflationary depression makes itself felt and recognized by even the slowest to catch up with the reality of serious asset deflation leading to outright deflation in general prices.

Jas

Savers facing accounts with no interest…

Millions of savers are braced for zero per cent accounts within days as the Bank of England is poised to cut interest rates to the lowest level in its 315-year history.

Experts have warned the return on savings could plumb new depths with the Bank expected to take unprecedented steps to regain control over the economy.

They widely believe the Bank will reduce borrowing costs to below their 2 per cent level - and possibly all the way down to 1 per cent - in its first meeting of the year next week.

More than 7 million people have saving accounts which already pay interest of 1 per cent or less. If a cut is passed on in full by banks, these accounts will dive towards negative territory for the first time on record.

Many elderly people who rely on the income from savings have found themselves struggling in recent months as returns fall.

Just 18 months ago average interest rates on savings accounts were as high as 6 per cent. But consecutive cuts by the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee have led to banks slashing their savings rates, with the current average rate being just 2 per cent.

The Daily Telegraph has launched a campaign aimed at giving pensioners a tax cut on the income earned from their savings and investments to help them during the recession.

Mark Dampier, of asset managers Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “It is a dire times for savers, especially for elderly people who rely on their income. They have already seen a sharp drop in excess of 50 per cent and can anyone tell me of someone in the public or private who would put up with a 50 per cent pay cut?”

A cut in interest rates raises the bizarre possibility that some savers may soon end up having to pay banks to keep money with them.

Note from the Outer Banks, Cape Hatteras area - just got back from winter getaway, there for a week. For all of the communities on this barrier island, inventory backlogs (absorption times?) are in excess of
30 months. From Corolla, Duck, Nag’s Head, Kill Devil Hills, Rodanthe, Waves, Salvo and Avon. Didn’t investigate further south.

Oceanfront houses - the kinds on stilts that shake in the Atlantic winds and get eaten by the ocean as the dunes upon which they sit are eaten away by nor’easters - are now down to $795K (”Major price reduction!”). Most are still in the $900K ballpark. Rent rolls on these 5-7 BR behemoths are published at $30-$40K per year. These wishing prices are 25% below what they were last year at this time.

The local economy is heavily dependent on tourism. Talking to a shopkeeper, the rentals on these “vacation cottages” are down by 60% vs. last year. Wonder what that does to the published rent roll. Have a sneaking that it hasn’t been rolled into the nums yet. Feet on the street bear out the dropoff in business - there was very little life on the island, and stores which were open this time last year were shuttered up ‘for the season’. One of the chain plastic beach accessory cr*p purveyors (Waves) advertises a going out of business sale. Good. Its equally plastic competitor advertises “Everything 50% off!! No Gimmicks!” — I guess they didn’t get the memo from the mainland that retailers with actual provenance are doing it better, at 70% off.

The little gas-station-and-grocery-store places had little inventory. As in, no milk and Coke. More disturbingly, the Food Lion had no potatoes the day after Christmas. Their deliveries had been reduced in frequency.

I remember speaking with one of the prosperous real estate investors on the beach in 2003. She was effulgent with the great decision she had made to buy a beachfront behemoth for $1,000,000 in 2001.

The Outer Banks was every bit as frothy as anyplace in Calif, IMHO. I windsurfed with Canadians, Brits, Spaniards, French, Germans (!!) and Swedes in days of yore, and witnessed the Californication of a formerly sleepy, desolate place, with actual people who scramble for a living as fishermen, handypeople, EMTs, wait staff, housekeeping staff as the occasion presents itself throughout the year. The natives are authentic people.

It’s nice to see the behemoths crumble into matchsticks and get swallowed by the sea. Nevertheless, capitulation is not here yet,
given that the remaining ones are still priced the way they are.

Dunes were never meant to support huge structures on stilts. Particularly in an area where the storms are so fierce that the shipwrecks they have spawned have given the area the monicker “The Graveyard of the Atlantic”.

Still, glossy real estate rags galore. A few ads now have a tiny sidebar inviting us to call them for information on foreclosures.

I hope the behemoths all disintegrate. Return the place to the people who lived there to begin with. Crazy thinking, I know.

Personal responsibility for ones debt?

Like many have been saying, credit card debt is next-up for the “forgive me my debt” borrowers. My sister, who has been in collections for seventeen years, works out of the Atlanta area with a large collections firm, and she’s told me throughout 2008 she’s seen credit card delinquencies rates growing. Today’s NYT business article about this problem:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/03/business/03collect.html?ref=business

In yesterday’s (2-2-09) edition of USA TODAY, Adam Shell had the leading story in the front page of the business section:

“Market gurus predict stock rebound but won’t rule out extreme move up — or down.”

Then he quoted Jeffrey Kleintop of LPL Financial:

“What happens further along the road depends on which fork the financial crisis takes us down.”

Wow, I’m impressed. I think I will start a subscription to USA Today. Oh, and here is my prediction for 2009: “The market will end 2009 somewhere in the range from -75% to +100%.” That should work for anybody, including Diane Swonk.

Last night the History Channel had a program “Crash: The Next Great Depression?” that compared the situation in 1929 and 2008. Both in terms of the nature of the bubble that we were facing, but also in terms of how we responded to it. Kind of interesting.

http://www.history.com/shows.do?action=detail&episodeId=380298

I expect they will run it again..

“Will the Federal Reserve succeed in defeating deflation?” “What’s the worst possible way to fight deflation? Print money. We call this policy ‘Gonoism,’ after Zimbabwe’s top man at its central bank - Gideon Gono. Gono did what neither the U.S. in the ’30s nor Japan in the ’90s was able to do. He made prices go up - 230 million percent in a single year. Of course, he destroyed the economy completely… So Dr. Bernanke won’t be the first. And we may not get to 230 million percent. Maybe 20%. But even at that level the destruction will be massive.” This is the opinion of financial news publisher Bill Bonner who believes the Fed will succeed in re-kindling monetary inflation.

Since the Fed has the printing press it makes sense to assume that it will use it to flood the economy with money and revive inflation. But we notice that trillions of dollars of value have disappeared from balance sheets while the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve are only pumping in billions. We notice, too, that Barack Obama is committed to fighting deflation with the money-printing presses. He’ll regret it.

Bottom line: If you believe heavy inflation lies ahead you should be taking on debt to be paid off with cheaper money. Remember the tale of the German physician who borrowed money in the early 1920s to buy a herd of cattle for his farm. Within a few months he sold one cow and paid off his entire debt!

In high inflation the lender takes a beating. In deflation it’s the debtor who is hurt.

Some thoughts on the CALPERS crisis:

I followed those links offered yesterday and read up on the massive retro increases to public employees’ pensions in recent years. I agree that’s unfair, although I disagree with the ditch the pension entirely argument. Like some of the dissenters in the comments, there are some very qualified people who accepted lower pay in the public sector with the promise of a decent pension down the line. Recent experience in Virginia, when one of their long line of feckless governors turned out the “dead weight” in DOT and then had to rehire all the senior people as consultants just to get anything done, shows that nominal consultant fees run much higher than the original salary. Of course, the consultant must pay self-employment tax and fund their own pension, plus you have the equipment costs (oops), and of course there’s the whole job insecurity thing.

What I remember from the 1990’s is that some consultants struggled to get jobs and looked for a real job avidly, while others became stars and made far more than they ever had at their former employer, rising in status and pay. OOPS.

Okay, so this isn’t rocket science or anything, but I think the reason the public employees got so “greedy” is because of the housing bubble. Housing bubble (10x income)–> extremely high cost of living. Remember the old saw about the schoolteachers not being able to afford living in their own district?

But why the housing bubble? Why California? Looking at typical wages in California, where it seems like any dumbass with a college degree can easily pull in $100K a year, it seems to me like US dollars are worth a lot less in California than elsewhere. Why is this? Probably the tech bubble. Huge amounts of funny money floating around. California reminds me of Spain after the conquistadores. Spain gained enormous amounts of gold. Great, right? We’re rich, we’re rich! Soon, the gold begins to circulate. Since gold is in high supply, inflation escalates. At the end of it, Spain is broke (and stays that way for centuries).

This also explains why Cali is overrun with illegals. Somebody has to fill all those low level jobs. Here in low cost Florida, I see native Floridians riding the bus to their hotel cleaning jobs (one of the worst-paying, sh88iest jobs there is, especially when your employer cheats on your payroll taxes–true story). But in Cali, you have mestizos, driven off their dry farms (thanks, Texas) looking for some hard cash (USD worth a lot more in Monterey, MX than Monterey, CA) and willing to bunk up 11 in one McMansion squatter special so they can save enough to wire a little home. Americans from the lowest echelon of society do not dream of saving a little dinero from their below-min-wage undocumented job so they can buy a little farm in Latin America where they don’t even speak the language (some middle class edjumacated people do, but they don’t work these jobs). But if you’re from Guadalajara, coming home in three years with a little money to start a tidy little business and be a member of the middle class, hey, that doesn’t sound so bad. Those USD are worth more to those taking them than they were to those giving them.

So if California collapses, put its name next to Spain. Whether it was Dotcom clownbucks, Googleaires, or MEWs, the oversupply of greenbacks drove them all into the poorhouse. Deflation, severe deflation, would drive down the cost of living and mean less jobs for undocumented labor. So, bad for them, but this wasn’t supposed to be a gravy welfare train for Mejiko.

LMAO…Ya think?

“$2 trillion this year, an unprecedented increase that could test the world’s appetite for financing U.S. government spending”.

U.S. Debt Expected To Soar This Year
$2 Trillion Increase May Test Federal Ability to Borrow

By Lori Montgomery
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, January 3, 2009; Page A01

With President-elect Barack Obama and congressional Democrats considering a massive spending package aimed at pulling the nation out of recession, the national debt is projected to jump by as much as $2 trillion this year, an unprecedented increase that could test the world’s appetite for financing U.S. government spending.

For now, investors are frantically stuffing money into the relative safety of the U.S. Treasury, which has come to serve as the world’s mattress in troubled times. Interest rates on Treasury bills have plummeted to historic lows, with some short-term investors literally giving the government money for free.

But about 40 percent of the debt held by private investors will mature in a year or less, according to Treasury officials. When those loans come due, the Treasury will have to borrow more money to repay them, even as it launches perhaps the most aggressive expansion of U.S. debt in modern history.

With the government planning to roll over its short-term loans into more stable, long-term securities, experts say investors are likely to demand a greater return on their money, saddling taxpayers with huge new interest payments for years to come. Some analysts also worry that foreign investors, the largest U.S. creditors, may prove unable to absorb the skyrocketing debt, undermining confidence in the United States as the bedrock of the global financial system.

Palmetto or Muir:

I write here occasionally, and am a 53 year old male who cannot aford another mistake. I bought/sold (honestly and without greed) three little places in New Port Richey and Spring Hill. Got out in 2006, and made a little money. My question is, I see 45K nice homes (non-short some of them, in Caope Coral Florida. 3 bed 2 bath, 2 car garage, 2005 build. PLEASE tell me not go down there and why at 35 sq. ft. Something must be wrong if there are so many of them on the market.
Finally, I thank you for your time to respond very much. Best blog on the net right here!

Check out this web site www herman cain dot com. He’s starting a movement to take our country back. He’s a radio commentator in Atlanta.

Yesterday’s lively discussion on milk production from the NYT (Motto: Lets not bother to check facts) as opposed to deflation or inflation is more a result of government interference.

Mailbox money is still over $15. Apr, 2008 $25.50 Nov, 2006 $11.27 - Government loan support is $11.00

The problem for the country is not the demand, but the cost of production (particularly for California) has jumped.

The economic situation that farmers face is complex, said Bill Bruins, president of the Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation.

“We are ending a year that took many commodity prices on a roller coaster ride. The record high prices we saw for corn and soybeans last summer are a distant memory, but the elevated prices we paid for inputs like fertilizer, seed and diesel have not come back down to earth as fast.” Dec 30, 2008

My sons will have to make a decision shortly on what if any crops to plant. The cost of production exceeds the price of the commodity so we will probably not plant anything but grass (hay). Cows like grass and do just fine. Diesel is now as low as it was in Feb, 2008 and it was high then.

Most other manufactured commodities (herbicides, fertilizer, seed, etc) are up 100 -400% over 2007.

So it is cheaper to cut production than to lower the price. Food will not get cheap, there is demand for it. There are few banks willing to lend money in the international markets. This is a world wide problem.

I am buying my own cow.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602013&sid=aujZ2RelXaXE&refer=commodity_futures

I can get a calf for $45 fatten it up for a year. $80 per month for feed.
Butcher it $100. Total $1105 plus I get manure for my vegetable garden.

From the Washington Post.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/02/AR2009010202226.html

“I just had a call from a guy this morning who wanted to refinance his $800,000 mortgage into a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage,” Larry F. Pratt, chief executive of First Savings Mortgage, said yesterday. “He couldn’t believe it when he heard the rates he’d have to pay.”

Jumbo rates spiked to unusual highs as mortgage markets were unraveling in the last half of 2007, creating a setback for borrowers in expensive housing markets like Washington.

The whole article makes it sound like 7% is some sort of crazytown insanely high mortgage rate that we haven’t seen since the late 70s/early 80s. When I bought my house in 1999 (conforming, 66% LTV,) I was paying 7.65%. If you can’t afford 7% you HAD NO BUSINESS GETTING AN ARM. Heck at least the specuvestors were just betting their credit rating. Idiots who bet the house that interest rates would never return to the that they had been LESS THAN 10 YEARS AGO are the kind of stupid that I would have hoped was much less common than turns out to be the case.

Ben Jones,

I sure hope this house is nowhere near your AZ neighborhood…

Wall Street Journal

* REAL ESTATE
* JANUARY 3, 2009, 10:14 A.M. ET

Would You Pay $103,000 for This Arizona Fixer-Upper?
That Was Ms. Halterman’s Mortgage on It; ‘Unfit for Human Occupancy,’ City Says
By MICHAEL M. PHILLIPS

AVONDALE, Ariz. — The little blue house rests on a few pieces of wood and concrete block. The exterior walls, ravaged by dry rot, bend to the touch. At some point, someone jabbed a kitchen knife into the siding. The condemnation notice stapled to the wall says: “Unfit for human occupancy.”

Take home lessons from the collapsing credit bubble:

- Flooding the monetary system with helicopter drops of cash can lead to bad household and business decisions.

- A critical mass of bad household and business decisions due to an excess supply of easy money results in a global credit tsunami.

- Money is made of paper or entries in a computer memory; real wealth is not.

- “The Federal Reserve’s job is to take away the punch bowl just when the party gets going.”

William McChesney Martin Jr.
Chairman, Federal Reserve Board

Where art thou oh Shakespeare & Bunyan?

“…Stuyvesant takes up a third of a city block and is situated between the Cathedral of Deliverance and the Citizens Advice Bureau…”

“Christian, an everyman character, is the protagonist of the allegory, which centers itself in his journey from his hometown, the “City of Destruction” (”this world”), to the “Celestial City” (”that which is to come”: Heaven) atop Mt. Zion. Christian finds himself weighed down by a great burden…

(an innovative home loan, promoted by the “Maestro” Sir Greenisspent. 0% down…40 years repayment…no qualifying) …After just 3 years, Christian is chained & shackled to another “financial innovation” called a HELOC, one day while standing in line at a 7/11 ATM..he meets a fellow named: Inigo Montoya, a “strawberry picker” who informs Christian that he too has bought a home near Bakersfried, CA as well has his BIL & x6 cousins all with 0% down. About this time… in a downtown Manhattan private luxury apartment, a fellow named Mr. Made-Off, receives a call from a famous Hollywood movie producer…

Madoff Accepted $10 Million Six Days Before Arrest:

“…The attorney said that “we feel pretty good that our money we wired to Chase bank is still there,” adding that $10 million has been set aside by lawyers for the trustee until the claim is resolved. He declined to estimate what percentage of the Rosenman family fortune the funds represented.”

“It was not their nest egg,” he said. “While it is a lot of money, it is not something that will dramatically affect their life.”

Not long ago I got a sucmyjawaya dollar coin in change from the post office. Later that day at another store the check out girl didn’t want to take it, said it didn’t look real.

This story shows how well informed some at banks are…

From the Minneapolis Star Tribune:

Q. My late wife and I kept Eisenhower dollar coins as a way of saving money, and I have about 50 of them. I went to my bank to cash them in, but they wouldn’t take them. They said that the Federal Reserve will no longer accept them and they are considered collectible only and are no longer legal tender. Is that true? How can the government issue money and then decide not to accept it as money? What do I do now?

A: It is not true. Eisenhower dollars are legal tender and accepted by Federal Reserve Banks, said Patti Lorenzen, with the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. So you can take the coins back to your bank and demand that they accept them, but you may not want to. An Eisenhower dollar from the 1970s, un-circulated, can be worth $6 to $8 (circulated ones are worth up to $1.50). Value varies depending on the coin and its condition.

(note: All U.S. coins from 1792 to the present time are legal tender at face value. This means that a 1964 quarter-dollar, containing 90 per cent pure silver, is legal tender at face value just like a 1965 quarter-dollar made of copper and nickel. Not many people are foolish enough to spend old coins at face value.)

–
http://online.barrons.com/article_print/SB123094654808750783.html?mod=9_0031_b_this_weeks_magazine_main

Saturday, January 3, 2009

Why India Won’t Rebound Soon
By VEN RAM

India’s stock market may look attractive after its massive slide, but there’s probably more pain to come. A host of economic and political challenges could keep a new bull market at bay for more than a year.
FOR THOSE TEMPTED TO WADE INTO THE INDIAN STOCK MARKET with a view to making a quick killing after its massive slide, consider the advice that Punch magazine once gave a person who was about to marry: Don’t.

Although India’s benchmark Sensex has fallen about 55% from its peak a year ago, the market is still not attractive as a short-term investment. November’s terror attacks in Mumbai aren’t even the half of it: The Indian economy, valuation issues and broad political uncertainty all argue for real caution…

“Even as absolute valuations have corrected, India’s relative valuations remain rich,” says Ridham Desai, India Strategist at Morgan Stanley. The market’s price-to-earnings multiple, based on expected earnings for the next 12 months, is 60% higher than that of emerging markets as a group. And its price-to-book ratio is a whopping 72% higher.

India fares no better on the dividend-yield front. The roughly 2% dividend yield on the Sensex pales in comparison to what is available in some of the more advanced economies. The dividend yield for the Australian market, for example, is an eye-popping 6.5%, while most other regional markets offer yields well north of 5%.

Seshadri Sen, Associate Director, Research and India strategist at Macquarie Capital Securities, says that even though the Indian markets are trading at just nine times forward earnings, investors need to exercise caution in interpreting that multiple.

“With all the earnings cuts that we have seen from companies, what appears cheap may not be so,” he says. “We are seeing a fairly sharp slowdown in the economy, but it remains to be seen whether the markets have discounted all the bad news that is in store.”

…

The Bottom Line:

A new bull market in India may be at least 15 months away, thanks to a host of economic and political challenges.

…

–
Quotes:

“The Only thing to kill America is from inside.” — John Rutledge

[I agree! And evildoers in power have done the dirty deed.]

“The length and severity of depressions depend partly on the magnitude of the ‘real’ maladjustments, which developed during the preceding boom and partly on the aggravating monetary and credit conditions.” — Gotfried Haberler, Prosperity and Depression, 1937

[from Prudent Bear]

Jas

–
Q: Why was Bernanke, a student of, or an “expert” on, the Great Depression, brought in in August 2002?

Jas

I looked at 3 houses today. The one I really wanted to see is off the market as of today (of course it is!). The other 3 were total crap. If this blog doesn’t cure ya’ of wanting to buy a house, actually going to look at some houses will. I cannot imagine buying someone else’s piece of garbage. It’s amazing to me how some people live. One of the homes was a total pit - but with 2 GIANT, brand new, flat panel TVs. Ah, priorities in America.

Wow. Here’a an opportunity -

In a recession, executives make quick getaways.

At evasive-driving school, business is up, but some question need for such tactics.

Snip

“In bad economic times, crime rates go up,” he said. “The downside to that is nobody has money for training; the upside to it is everybody needs to train. Those companies that still have money have been coming through the doors, because they feel there’s increased crime.”

As millions of people have lost their jobs or sizable chunks of their retirement savings, some corporate titans are increasingly worried that angry customers or former workers might try to do them physical harm, Ricci said.

“I don’t want to get into specific stories, but I am hearing, ‘We’re worried about our security, because in these times you have to be,’ ” he said.

Full article

http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2008/12/29/in_a_recession_executives_make_quick_getaways/?page=1

Leigh

Palmetto, Thank You So Very Much for taking the time to write and explain. It shows you are a good person, and it means a lot to me not to buy in Cape Coral if it will sink me.

My spelling is better this time, because I didn’t think anyone would respond. I am grateful.

Also, I didn’t know anything about the “Chinese Drywall Issue” for example, or the employment prospects.

If I ever get down there, I owe you a dinner. Again, Thank You!

Greg

Catskill Home Prices: How Low Will They Go?

Didn’t Barbara Corcoran say things would pick up after the Superbowl (the 2006 Superbowl if I recall correctly?)

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/02/greathomesanddestinations/02catskills.html

“The owner of a house on a pond in Andes recently lowered the price to $299,000 from $329,000, said Ms. McArdle, who is listing it. She said she had seen “some reductions more drastic than that, but in those cases the original asking prices were inflated to begin with.”

Having sold real estate in Andes for 30 years, Ms. McArdle said she remained “optimistic about the market.

“Right now, people are scared. We need to get through the inauguration, through the winter. At the end of March, the beginning of April, we’ll see an increase in activity.”……

It gets better!!!

““Everyone asks, ‘Are we at the bottom?’ ” Mr. Florke said. His answer: “I don’t know, but there are some great deals out there.”

Indeed, he said, “this may become one of those periods that people look back on with nostalgia, talking about the bargains they were able to pick up.”

Ha! Ha ha ha ha!

Sure! I need another albatross around my neck a hundred miles away! Another electric bill, outrageous property tax bill, maintenance and upkeep! It’s a lifestyle decision, you know!

In todays episode of burning books of money, the infamous US hedge fund priest Bernie Madoff (playing the part of Girolamo Savonarola) has taken down the Bank of Medici in Austria…

Clergymen close to the situation are now building the pyre on which Mr. Bernie “Savonarola” Madoff will be burned alive near the Piazza de’ Wall Street.

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/CRIME/01/03/bernard.madoff.austria.bank/index.html?iref=mpstoryview

We need more laws! Laws with incarceration terms, none of this girly-men texting while driving laws! Your taxpayer with benefits & pension after x1term law-makers…get busy!

Therefore, we can build more prisons ( Think construction jobs) …hire more $75,000+ security guards (think laid-off Homeland Security shoe checkers)… hire more low paid q-tip medical technicians (he has wax in his brain)…

“Reinke is trying to reduce prisoners housed outside Idaho under costly contracts with private prison companies in order to meet Gov. C.L. “Butch” Otter’s order that agencies slash their 2009 budgets by 4 percent and 2010 budgets by up to 10 percent.”

Disgruntled slackers!:

“Reinke said he wasn’t certain what started the fracas — investigators were reviewing security videotapes — but it’s possible the prisoners were unhappy with their new quarters.”

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090103/ap_on_re_us/idaho_prison_disturbance

Dear Muir:

Thank you too so much for your help. Your thoughts re “75 sq. ft” makes a lot of sense. I continue to be impressed by both the wisdom and humanity of this board.

Grateful, I am,

Greg

Bob Brinker on the radio, I haven’t heard that guy since I left CA 2.5 years ago.

So this is what he said “CA too big to fail so don’t sell CA muni’s

TIPS should yeild 2.2% which is a good deal as 10 year Treasuries are yeilding 2.4%.

GNMAS one of the best preformers in 2008

We are currently in Deflation but a few years from now with the FED handing out money? ”

Thats all I remember I was driving back to Phoenix from Payson where I saw many homes for sale or rent, By the airport.

Like I said haven’t heard brinker since CA where he said RE won’t crash and stocks won’t crash, I remember I was in Ventura CA getting a peets coffee and figured Brinker was a one hit wonder having forcast the dot bomb crash but not seeing the RE bubble.

There used to be a big sign next to the freeway in Oxnard that said ” buy AZ homes” haha I bet that sign is long gone.

VATICAN CITY (AFP) – The contraceptive pill is polluting the environment and is in part responsible for male infertility, a report in the Vatican newspaper L’Osservatore Romano said Saturday.

The pill “has for some years had devastating effects on the environment by releasing tonnes of hormones into nature” through female urine, said Pedro Jose Maria Simon Castellvi, president of the International Federation of Catholic Medical Associations, in the report.

“We have sufficient evidence to state that a non-negligible cause of male infertility in the West is the environmental pollution caused by the pill,” he said, without elaborating further.

“We are faced with a clear anti-environmental effect which demands more explanation on the part of the manufacturers,” added Castellvi.

The article was promptly dismissed by several organisations.

“Once metabolised, the hormones contained in oral contraceptives no longer have any of the characteristic effects of feminine hormones,” said Gianbenedetto Melis, vice-president of a contraceptive research association, quoted by the ANSA news agency.

The hormones contained in the pill such as oestrogen “are present everywhere… in plastic, in disinfectants, in meat that we eat,” added Flavia Franconi, of the Society of Italian Pharmacology.

Is there any doubt that if religion controlled gov we would end up in with another dark ages?

It’s bad enough that government controls us already!
Thanks for the hard landing.