It Was Getting Like California
The East Valley Tribune reports from Arizona. “The mortgage crisis is emptying out East Sierrita Road. Families are leaving the homogeneous neighborhood south of Queen Creek by desperation or by force. Zakary and Rachel Lutterman bought a home on Sierrita during the dizzied real estate market of 2006, forced to the Valley’s fringes by surging prices. The Luttermans could afford the $201,000 price tag with their two incomes, but didn’t study how their lender engineered the mortgage with an adjustable rate. ‘There are just all these little loopholes that, at the time, you don’t pay attention to,’ Rachel said. ‘You’re excited.’”
“The bank foreclosed on the house next door. Months behind on their payments, the Lutterman household is nearing the same end. ‘We got married, we got the house, got the great job,’ Rachel said. ‘Things were going really, really well. And then it all just went downhill.’”
“Tony Ciciora and his wife, Dora Gamez-Ciciora…arrived in the Valley at the peak of the housing bubble, with prices 50 percent higher than they were just two years earlier. Sellers would receive offers on a house within hours of putting it on the market. Dora said the frenzy made her anxious that they were already priced out of the Valley. ‘It was getting like California at first,’ she recalled thinking.”
“Talking with a customer at the salon where she works, Dora said she heard there was a bundle of houses selling for around $200,000 down south on Hunt Highway. Dora and Tony liked what they found there, particularly the price, which at the time seemed reasonable. In August 2006, they moved into a just-finished, 1,700-square-feet house on East Pinto Valley Road that they intended to make their permanent home.”
“The Village at Copper Basin’s fall was as dramatic as its rise. Dora Gamez-Ciciora didn’t need to look for symbolic signs of trouble. A year after buying their home, Dora said she saw nearby houses going for $170,000. Then $150,000. Property records show the houses on Pinto Valley and Sierrita are now worth around $130,000.”
“Suddenly, her husband, Tony, could no longer find construction jobs in the Valley. Dora took a second, part-time job as a waitress while Tony travels to California and Washington state for work. Many of the neighborhood’s remaining homeowners said they are fighting to make their payments. Dora’s next-door neighbor took in a boarder. Others are attempting to renegotiate their loans.”
“Still, a number have chosen to get out. One of the neighborhood’s original owners last year sold a house on Quartz Way for $80,000, property records show.”
The Arizona Daily Star. “The lender for master-planned Gladden Farms in Marana has filed a notice of trustee’s sale for about 605 acres, most of which is vacant farmland just east of the development. The notice filed last month by a division of GMAC Bank also includes a small portion of subdivided but undeveloped lots. Gladden Farms acquired the land in 2005.”
“Dean Wingert, senior VP for Gladden Farms, said in a prepared statement the project’s developer and owners have a long-standing relationship with GMAC, but problems arose following a recent appraisal of the vacant land. ‘They did an updated appraisal of the vacant land, and it came back with a very low value on today’s conditions,’ Wingert said.”
The Spectrum from Utah. “The local housing industry witnessed its worst year in decades in 2008 as diminished consumer confidence, strict lending standard, and a market flooded with bank-owned properties curtailed demand for new homes throughout much of the year. The volume of building permits issued by the City of St. George fell dramatically in 2008, with only 172 single-family residential projects recorded for the year. In contrast, the city listed 493 residential projects in 2007, and over 1,000 at the height of the housing boom in 2005.”
“‘This is the most severe downturn we’ve seen, at least in the last 30 years,’ said Community Development Director Bob Nicholson regarding St. George homebuilding in 2008.”
“Allan Carter, the director of development services for Southern Utah Title Company, said 60 percent of home sales in the fourth quarter of 2008 were either foreclosures or short sales.”
“He said the market for high-end homes remains nonexistent in Washington County, with an existing inventory of approximately 200 homes in the area priced above $800,000. He said only two or three of these homes are sold each month.”
“Tracy Ence, VP of construction for Ence Homes, said the company is heavily involved in the construction of more affordable housing, with prices starting at $155,900 for a single-family home. ‘The market now requires you to have a low-priced home,’ he said.”
The Las Vegas Business Press from Nevada. “Las Vegas has earned plenty of nicknames over the years, such as ‘Sin City,’ ‘The Entertainment Capital of the World’ and ‘Lost Wages.’ Deutsche Bank gaming analyst Bill Lerner has coined a new moniker, ‘The Bone Yard.’ The Wall Street researcher is predicting any number of planned hotel-casino projects or high-rise condominium developments could be halted, delayed or stopped altogether this year.”
“‘We have never tracked a greater number of stalled projects in Las Vegas than today, primarily resulting from a weak consumer, an even weaker high-rise residential market and the limited availability of credit,’ Lerner said in his most recent investors note.”
In Business Las Vegas from Nevada. “The 700-residence mixed-use ManhattanWest faces foreclosure after a senior lender stopped funding the project under construction. After the success with $230 million Manhattan Condominiums on Las Vegas Boulevard South, that is quite a comedown for Alex Edelstein, the dot-com millionaire and founder and CEO of Group Gemstone, ranked as the fifth fastest growing private company in the country. Its development arm, Gemstone Development, built the projects.”
“About two months ago in an interview with In Business Las Vegas, Edelstein said his project wasn’t having financial woes like other projects because he had locked up financing early. That changed last month when a syndicate of 30 Midwestern banks stopped funding its $100 million senior loan with only three quarters of the first phase of the project completed.”
“Sales have been slow with 140 contracts written so far, but the question remains how many are going to close, he says. Buyers of other condos have not been able to close because of the credit crunch.”
“‘The problem is the market value of completed condos and office space has dropped so low that I can’t make a compelling enough case that we will be able to pay the banks back all of their loans,’ Edelstein says. ‘The market has valued this stuff well below what it cost to build and either the market will have to rise or there will have to be some big write-offs.’”
The Review Journal from Nevada. “Home sales nearly tripled in December from the same month a year ago, though median prices declined 32.7 percent, the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Thursday. The inventory of homes for sale remained relatively stable, up 0.6 percent from a year ago at 22,144 units.”
“December is traditionally a slow time of the year in real estate because of the holidays and colder weather, said Sue Naumann, the Realtors association’s president. ‘This shows that buyers are realizing that this is a great time to buy a home,’ Naumann said.”
“She stopped short of predicting when local home prices may rebound, but continued to emphasize that the market presents opportunities that ‘can’t last much longer.’”
“Amid predictions that home values will decline further, some real estate skeptics are saying it’s better to hold off a few months for that ’smokin’ deal.’ ‘It’s a tough situation,’ Frank Nason of Residential Resources said. ‘Some of my agents represent investors scooping up deals. They don’t really care if they’ve found the bottom. They’re getting homes below replacement cost, they’re holding them for three to five years and they’re getting cash flow. So to them, it’s a no-brainer.’”
“Median home prices dropped to $175,000 in December, the lowest level since 2003. Condo prices are down 51.4 percent from a year ago at $89,900. Bank-owned properties, or foreclosures, accounted for 41 percent of all listings in December and slightly more than 75 percent of all closings, Nason reported. Short-sale properties, offered at less than the mortgage owed, accounted for 31 percent of listings and 11 percent of closings.”
“The percentage of vacant listings continues to increase, Nason said. He found 65.2 percent of single-family listings vacant in December, compared with 44 percent in the beginning of 2007. Condo vacancies rose to 74 percent from 57 percent during the same period.”
Las Vegas Weekly from Nevada. “There is construction at Inspirada, the massive master-planned community in the southern reaches of Henderson. Several homes are going up, and the neighborhood is full of bulldozers, Port-a-Potties and bundles of wood marked ‘Inspirada.’ But most of the land on the 2,000-acre site is vacant dirt.”
“‘Things stand very poorly,’ says Monica Caruso of the Southern Nevada Homebuilders Association. ‘This is more than a slowdown coming from the boom. The home-building industry is on hiatus in Southern Nevada.’”
“‘Las Vegas really grew in 2004 and 2005 and 2006,’ notes real estate analyst Ken Perlman, with Sullivan Group Real Estate Advisors. On average, he says, around 20,000 new homes a year were being sold in Vegas in the early years of the decade, peaking at a ridiculous 41,000 in 2005, driven both by easy credit and by speculators. ‘Las Vegas really stole demand from the future,’ he notes.”
“‘The age of excess in 2004-06, those days are over,’ says Dennis Smith, president of Home Builders Research. ‘They will never return.’”
“The scene creates an odd visual congruence: an echo of Vegas’ business-as-usual building boom, with the kind of empty, lonely grandeur you might see on old blocks in Detroit or Chicago, where a lone house guards an otherwise decimated block. But people are still moving in. Keith Neuhart moved from Orange County to Henderson with his wife in November. Their home is at the edge of development at Inspirada. He stares out at the rocky fields where the rest of Inspirada may one day rise. But workers, he says, are busy. ‘They’re constantly working every day. There’s always movement and machinery.’”
‘Edelstein says…’The market has valued this stuff well below what it cost to build and either the market will have to rise or there will have to be some big write-offs.’
I’ll give you three guesses which it will be, UFB. This ‘less than it costs to build’ stuff is getting a little old. When you have half built condo towers in LV, or decades of $800k houses on the market in Utah (!), I’d say what it cost to build doesn’t matter anymore.
Yeah, the “less than it costs to build” reasoning is so 2008. Haven’t any of these clowns noticed the plunging prices of lumber, copper, and other building materials, not to mention the fact that starving contractors - those still in the biz - will be charging a good deal less, and face much stiffer competition, than they were in the halycon bubble days of yore.
My 06 Honda Odyssey is currently valued well below the cost to build. When do you guys think its value is coming back?
I wonder why the tax code treats real estate as depreciating assets, when it’s clear to everyone in the Real Estate industry that they are appreciating assets. Ever wonder why the disconnect?
Chuck
if you give me a no doc liar loan i’ll pay double market for your accord. they arent making them anylonger……also accords always go up in value!
Yes, I don’t think a lot of construction types will be getting $150k/year any time soon.
Wow, you mean illegals were getting paid $150k ??? I should quit my day job and go line up at Home Depot!
Builders are overwhelmingly fixated on the new home segment of the market (costs). Current disequilibrium prices are weighed down by the existing home supply glut and dearth of purchase demand.
Yep…
It is very hard to get someone to see the truth, IF the truth means they’re banktrupt and unemployed.
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his paycheck depends on him not understanding it” — Sinclair Lewis
800K in St. George?
That is just nuts. If I’ve got 800K to spend on my retirement home I’d buy in Hawaii or Sandiego, not St. George.
How many jobs in St. George support an 800K purchase? 3 maybe 4 I would guess. Oh wait, I forgot all those instant multi millionaire flippers and contractors that thought the boom would never end!!! Nevermind, I’m sure this will all work out just peachy for the saints of George.
dude,
And… that’s kind of been my point all along. I had a specific amount in mind that I was willing to spend for my “retirement” ( read party ) home and not a penny more. Thankfully as things continue to disintegrate a million dollar home is looking more like a million dollar home every day!
Nothing again St. Geo. but you’re right, I’d have higher aspirations for that kind of money.
‘Nothing again St. Geo(orge).’
Ya candybum!
Say it like it is, man! ‘St. George su*cks’.
It’s full of Mormons, pavement, strip malls and heat.
(I don’t like happen to like ANY of those things.)
You cut me deep OG!
There is too much inventory. That means prices HAVE to fall to below const of construction so that builders will STOP!!!!
As has been said here many times over many years, ANY attempt to support housing prices just gives builders more time to add even more excess inventory, meaning the bottom will be all the lower when it eventually does arrive!
<<>>
Bwaahahahahaaaaaaa or whatever it is that the puddytat says.
Is the mantra “this is a great time to buy a home” included in their coursework in getting the RE license? I think we should all chip in and buy Ben a parrot that’s been trained to say this.
In regards Las Vegas being the Bone Yard…how long can those girders rust in the air until the whole thing has to be torn down? I remember that Intel started work on a 5 or 6 story design center in downtown Austin back in the mid 1990’s. Somehow they got cold feet on the project and it stopped in the girders-in-air phase. When the property was finally sold off to a developer circa 2004 the whole thing had to be torn down to the ground.
Here’s a story about the Intel project.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2004/04/21/intel_austin_sale/
That Intel building would make a great skate park!
Hmm, the swallowed the quote I was posting.
“Sue Naumann, the Realtors association’s president. ‘This shows that buyers are realizing that this is a great time to buy a home,’ Naumann said.”
“She stopped short of predicting when local home prices may rebound, but continued to emphasize that the market presents opportunities that ‘can’t last much longer.’”
I completely agree. These opportunities can’t last much longer! Of course, in my trade the Jurassic Period is recent history, and so the lifetimes of these opportunities is relative depending upon whom you talk to.
Roidy
Ah, now.
Don’t go discombobulating Realtors (tee em) with tricky book-larnin’-talk, like Geological Ages.
No one likes to see their heads assplode.
OK, maybe I do.
‘OK, maybe I do.’
Yes, me too! I say we go pre-Cambrian on ‘em!
The opportunities to sell can’t last much longer. Get what’s left of your appreciation (if you bought prior to 2003) before it all goes poof!
“Buy Now…I don’t want be stuck here FOREVER!”
How long before this thing has to come down???
http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/122333
“Mortgages Ltd. committed to lending $195 million to Tempe-based Avenue Communities for Centerpoint but only provided $120 million. Losch said the project needs $75 million to complete the two towers.
Under the pending plan, Mortgages Ltd. would provide $4.5 million to weatherproof the structures to keep them from being damaged by rain and other elements.”
They got the money, but the weatherproofing was not completed.
“Tower One, which has 22 stories, is nearly finished, and residents will be able to move in within 60 to 90 days from the close of the new loan agreement, Losch said. The second 30-story tower would open about six months later, he said.
About $24 million worth of units have been sold, he said.”
So, they’ve already blown $120 million, and want another $75 million… and $24 million worth of units have been sold*.
*By “sold”, they mean a very tiny down-payment was collected when an option to buy was signed. Based on other completed condo units in the ares, very, very few of those units under contract would actually close.
“However, some subcontractors have filed liens on the buildings totaling $24 million to ensure future compensation.”
So, even if you bought the condo project for $0, you’d have to pay $24 billion to clear liens and then $50 million to complete it. I can’t recall the total unit count, but I recall it being like 350. So, you’d still have to average about $350K per, meaning over $200K for the 700sqft 1br, $400K for the 1100 sqft 2 br, and like $1 millillion per for the larger suites and condos. Those prices are half the inital ask price, but at least 2-3x more than this market would bring.
In short, it ain’t getting completed.
“‘There are just all these little loopholes that, at the time, you don’t pay attention to,’ Rachel said. ‘You’re excited.’”
I remember when I bought a home in 1995 I was excited because it was a beautiful home for less that the cost of renting my one bedroom apartment that was not so nice.
When I bought a new home in 2000 I was terrified when they accepted my offer, and didnt sleep for two weeks. What if I lost my job? The price was so high, as were all other prices. There was excessive appreciation (around 8%) for the last two years, am I getting screwed?
Getting excited about buying a home in 2006 after prices had doubled, tripled or more in a short time span, are you freaking kidding me? I would have been scared sh**less! I guess I am just wired differently.
Tim,
Right, I suppose in a certain fashion you could describe a head-on collision or being gored at the Running of the Bulls as… ‘exciting’?
DinOR…Just looked at a nice nursery that in foreclosure up by you in the Willamette Valley…Canby…
scdave,
I used to go calling on a LOT of those guys so I remember them well. I can say with certainty that J. Frank Schmidt isn’t going under any time soon? I think Moana Nursery had a contract with the City of Canby that was fairly lucrative, parks, schools etc.
4 Mile Nursery has been there since Moses was a child ( right off of Macksburg Road across from Martin Home Furnishing ) and then there’s Postlewait. But they were really more of a “flower depot” than a real nursery and kind of family run. It was my wife’s favorite stop for flower baskets in the spring. I think Lone Elder has a distibution agreement with Fred Meyer.
scdave,
Have a post coming. It would be great to have you as a neighbor! Each of them has their niche and the fairly respect each other’s market share.
Some of these people should have bought high end luxury cardboard boxes, wooden crates or a paperbags to live in as it would have been much easier to fold up and leave when the crap hit the fan.
Ooops !
Most ppl lose money needlessly because they dont understand the the key to a good investment is a low purchase price; instead, believing past peformance is a guarantee of future performance. I see the same thing at work. I see 25 year olds upset that their 401ks are going down in value. I can understand the older folks worrying, but if you got 40 years of contributions left, you are much better off making the monthly contribution at the lowest price possible. Even if you were older, they should have seen this collapse coming and went into cash positions reinvesting at 40% or more off. Education has become a joke.
I can understand the older folks worrying, but if you got 40 years of contributions left, you are much better off making the monthly contribution at the lowest price possible.
No, you are far better off selling and then saving all your contributions OUT of the market until the bottom hits. Or more likely, once you are sure that the recent market floor is the bottom.
Dollar cost averaging is a scam designed to keep broker fees rolling in while the market is tanking.
We dont pay broker fees through our 401k plan. Also, if you are not sure where the bottom is, investing some when you feel we are close is the smartest move if you think there is long term upside. If you feel otherwise please let me know when the bottom will be so I can invest when we hit your target.
Just goes to show you how knee-jerk some of us have become programmed? Firstly, it’s a 401K! There isn’t any “broker” involved, at all. Fees are so nominal as to not be an issue in the example given above.
If one really wants to build a long term position in a particular issue, there’s ShareBuilder the NAIC and buying shares through a DRIP Program directly through the company. As is the case for ESOP’s. Some of these plans are generous to the point you can buy “fractional shares”.
All that aside, Dollar Cost Averaging can and does work. But it takes discipline, something evidently this country is in short supply.
Do you really think people in other countries have more discipline? No. Dollar-cost averaging is only for people who can’t time the market. It’s also only for markets that always go up (in the long run).
Seems to me that your typical 401K plan is becoming a fairly useless trap for money. Since we have a large population of boomers retiring those stock funds are going to start seeing some pretty hefty draw downs as liquidations take place to raise cash for withdrawals. How are stocks ever going to recover ?
Mo Money,
According the GAO the avg. 401k is less than $26,000. The Fabled Temple of Boomer Wealth ( there’s a laugh! ) never existed. They’ve already squandered their WWII parents wealth and tapped out the equity in their homes and are getting hardship loans against their 401k’s.
That’s WHY we are WHERE we are. If you’ve wondered what the market would look like without the Boomers, wonder no more.
Sing it, brother DinOR! Sing it!
I don’t see how your conclusion that “education has become a joke” follows from your observation of people believing that “past performance is a guarantee of future performance”. Was there once a school that managed to ablate human nature?
I am 40 years old. During the last 10 years of my life I have never seen so many ppl ignore price with respect to investments (I am including real estate for ease, please no flaming) based on expected above-average gains compared to a historical perspective. Whether that education is via a degree or grandparents that lived through the depression or otherwise, I deem understanding the importance of price an education. One that many now getting. Let the learning begin.
Oh, I see. You’re 40 and received a good education, back when education was good. Today’s young-uns, on the other hand, are less educated because they were educated when education was bad. That makes you smarter than the rest, no? No.
Lots of peolple over 40 went for this crap. They were more able than the rest, having equity in their RE already. The under-40 crowd had a harder time of it. Hence, the over-40 crowd jumped on this thing like no thang.
There goes your fancy education for you.
I don’t understand apparent your bitterness about your education, but it’s not my issue. Nor do I understand your generational discrimination, again not my issue.
Do I think that during the last 10 years people acted less educated when it came to personal finance than they had in the past? Yes, I do. People were over indulged and there was a long period without major declines.
Natalie:
You and Sarah are both missing the point. You cannot conclude that today’s education is worse than yesterday’s education based on the observation that people are acting weird right now. OLD PEOPLE (who were educated at some point before it became a joke) are acting weirder than young people. DUH!
I dont want to fight about it but I think research would show that debt leverage for ppl between 25-40 was higher during the last 5 years or so than has historically been the case. I believe there are many reasons for this. Much too complex to go into detail here. I also would venture to guess that the debt leverage deviations were not as great looking at the same periods for those in the 50 plus crowd. I do not think of it as one generation being better than others. I think of it as one generation essentially only seeing good times, coupled with circumstance.
Big V - I would venture to say that I value common sense and an education through the school of hard knocks no less than a piece of paper evidencing that one attended class and memorized the required material for a few weeks. Don’t be fooled into only thinking professors can educate.
What does that have to with anything, Sarah? My point is that Natalie is incorrect in valuing her own education over the education of her younger peers. Education has not “become a joke”. That old line has been used so many times by OLD PEOPLE who are jealous of YOUNG PEOPLE, that I would really like to see it retired.
I’d have to agree with Natalie that education has become both a cause and effect of the dumbing down of America. And our education has become a joke - public schools have become diploma mills where “self-esteem” seems to count more than an honest education and learning the skills you need to go out and become a product citizen, not just “express yourself.” What other country mainstreams the mentally challenged and learning-disabled kids into regular classrooms, where they take up a disporportionate amount of the teachers’ time and attention?
I don’t doubt that in general, the older generations (forty and over) probably got a better education than today’s graduates. I’ve done my fair share of hiring and interviewing, and I’ve never seen so many dolts who attended the right schools and look good on paper, but are functional illiterates.
There are just all these little loopholes that, at the time, you don’t pay attention to,’ Rachel said. ‘You’re excited.’”
Oh golly gee, we just got swept away with emotion and signed whatever was put in front of us…idiots. I’d like to think that most of these FBs will be wiser, not just poorer, when all this plays out, but I have my doubts.
They will be very cautious about purchasing real estate ever again.
You give them far too much credit for learning from their mistakes. Most of them seem convinced that they are “victims” rather than dumb-a$$es, which means they’ll little if anything from their previous stupidity.
You give them far too much credit for learning from their mistakes. Most of them seem convinced that they are “victims” rather than dumb-a$$es, which means they’ll little if anything from their previous stupidity.
Bingo, Sammy! The lack of introspection and failure to accept any personal responsibility (behavior which, btw, starts at the very top of society and then “trickles down” to the rest of us) is breathtaking. Then you have to factor in the average 5-second attention span and selective memory that blocks out any unpleasant memories, and… I figure idiots like this will be queued up for the next housing bubble as soon as the banks start handing out no-doc option-ARMs again.
“‘Fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again.”
“December is traditionally a slow time of the year in real estate because of the holidays and colder weather, said Sue Naumann, the Realtors association’s president. ‘This shows that buyers are realizing that this is a great time to buy a home,’ Naumann said.”
Realtor-scum never change. Always willing to latch onto the most spurrious data or indicators to “support” their endless mantra that “now is a great time to buy.” At least the sheeple have finally been disabused of the notion that real estate only goes up, so that prop of the NAR Big Lie has fallen away for good. But no doubt Ms. Naumann and her ilk will be be able to lure in a few more fools to catch a falling knife.
And it’s largely meaningless if the “buyers” are graduates of the latest Real Estate get rich scammer seminar out looking for “sweet deals”.
The stupid money - or more accurately, the stupid people with borrowed money - have largely been flushed out of the market. There’s still plenty of greedy and stupid fools around, but no one wants to lend them money.
“‘This is the most severe downturn we’ve seen, at least in the last 30 years,’ said Community Development Director Bob Nicholson regarding St. George homebuilding in 2008.”
Wasn’t St George like the fastest growing city in the known universe just a couple of years back?
I was thinking that St George might be immune to any housing downturn. I mean, don’t all those polygamists need several houses a piece to care for ever growing families? I always thought being a contractor in southern Utah would be a good gig. Instead of selling a home at a time, you could sell compounds.
Yes, but there’s one problem: If you’re not Mormon, it’s very difficult to do business in Utah.
No it isn’t. We (my wife and I) have been in UT 20+ years as lifelong non-Mormons, and it’s hardly been a factor for us. I’ve been in business for myself for over 12 years and have never had problems picking up clients, both in my residential and commercial-based businesses. You need to play to your client base and respect their preferences (no calls on Sundays, for instance, even though they will call me sometimes), but that type of thing is true anywhere.
Other’s MMV and there are definitely people that won’t do business if you’re not of the faith, but plently more that will, at least if you’ve got the goods.
‘This is the most severe downturn we’ve seen, at least in the last 30 years’
How come I never read any quotes over the last few years that said, “This is the most severe upturn we’ve seen, at least in the last 30 years”….??
I know the LA Mayor is involved in housing issues, but I didn’t know that he also make foreign policy decisions:
latimes.com/news/local/la-me-villaraigosa9-2009jan09,0,575009.story
” ’smoking deal’ ”
Now I’ve figured it out! All these Bubble Years ( a measure of time with brazen disregard for one’s own financial health factored in ) I’ve finally figured out what bugged me about the Realtwhore ( TM) term of “snapping up”!
It’s because there never WAS such a term before the Time of the Bubble! ( It was -always- referred to as SNATCHING up! ) They were so chomping at the bit to coin fresh terminology they trampled all over tradition. Sick bastards.
A quick commentary on the mindset of our society:
They had an interview with the head of Toyota this morning. He talked about how there were 3 things needed to restore the auto economy:
- Confidence: No mention if this is based on REAL JOBS or just “pie in the sky” BS “confidence” such as “it is different here!” and “real estate only goes up!” I think we can guess that they just want the CONfidence to return to the eCONomy!
- Interest in the product: Okay, yeah, that’s true.
- Low interest rates: Huh?! How about LOW PRICES?!?! Oh, but you’re not supposed to BUY a car - you’re supposed to lease one or otherwise get a big loan that you can’t afford and pay many times what the car is actually worth to keep the bankers fat and happy!
Now, extend this mindset to everything - as “commoners” we are not supposed to own things - we’re just suppose to rent them at absurd rates from our “betters!” Yeah, how’s that working out now?
Argh!”
I just got a email from a Toyota dealeship and they want to RENT… Me a Toyota with a GPS. They better keep their cars and GPS because they appear to have LOST their way today
Compacts @ 15.00/day (xD, Yaris)
Midsize @ 19.95/day (Matrix, Corolla, xB)
Full Size @ 25.95/day (Rav4, Camry)
Hybrid @ 39.95/day (Prius, Camry)
SUV @ 39.95/day (Highlander)
Van @ 45.95/day (Sienna)
GPS UNITS $4.99/DAY
Contact: XXXXXXX
Hybrid @ 39.95/day (Prius, Camry)
Maybe I’ll rent one an go visit my brother in Marinfidel, CA…via hwy 1 & Cambria / Carmel (Hogs Breath & Jack London’s, Hi Clint!)…Denny’s Grand Slam $3.99…but the coffee is $1.95?…wonder if they’ll charge me a corkage fee if I bring in my stainless steel thermos?
hwy 1 & Cambria ??
I’d be in the market for a Nissan GT-R if they hadn’t priced it so far out of reach, no way it cost $86K to build.
Toyota can charge whatever interest rate it chooses, as soon as they get into the business of GIVING OUT AUTO LOANS. Until then, they should stop whining and maybe give free sushi with every sale or something.
Anyone interested in a impromptu HBB Beer & Cheer gathering this Saturday 1/10/09 …please send an email to: consensusscientific@gmail.com I’ll be arriving and walking about starting at 10:30am …first watering hole will be Potato Shack on the south side of Encinitas just off hwy 1
I’d love to go, but you’re a bit far away and I have other stuff to do this weekend. But, if any Arizona HBB-ers are interested in a Tucson get-together, I’d be happy to be the organizer.
Slim..I will be heading into Tucson in early March…We can hook up then…
Hey Slim,
I’m coming to Az late in the spring…(a promised train ride to Mr. Cole to the South Rim of the Grand Canyon)…also the Meteorite disaster reminder monument…not sure how much time or places we’ll wander around to…but I’ll let you know.
ps, I hope we’ll still be able to see those beautiful Arizona desert blooming flowers!
Okay, Hwy50 and SCDave, you’re on!
And, as for the spring wildflowers, let’s hope that more rain comes our way. This winter has been a bit dry.
I not going anywhere that doesn’t have a warm swimming pool and weird drinks with the tiny umbrellas.
Ugh..Those big white bears dancing on melting icecubes should come to Wisconsin. 4 -6 inches of more snow and sub zero temps scheduled for next week
go to DESERTUSA dot COM and find the wildflowers report
late spring the flowers are all done in the low desert but maybe going strong up on the rim where the Grand canyon is.
developments could be halted, delayed or stopped altogether this year ??
Its happening here in Silicon Valley also….A massive project in Sunnyvale Ca. “Town Center” has been shut down..As best I understand it, the Builder told all the sub’s to fill up their trailers and go home…Don’t expect to here back from up until the end of 2009…There is also a “Massive” data center that has been halted in Santa Clara Ca.
Dave,
IIRC Sunnypatch Towne Centre got a massive facelift only about 5 years ago. What the heck were they doing now?
I never understood the need for SVTC. The better restaurants were in the small streets forming the “rump” of old downtown SV to the north of SVTC. All that SVTC had was corn-dog stands and fruit squeezie places - never any real stores where you wanted to buy anything.
I left town in early 2006. Is there any news more recent than this entry?
http://www.bigmallrat.com/shopping-malls/cities/sunnyvale/sunnyvale-town-center.html
DennisN…Thats the old center…Same location but a HUGE new multi commercial and residential project…Think Santana Row in San Jose…
There as so many of these old dead malls around the country. Thousands, probably. They are put up by destroying neighbourhoods, last a a few years, die for some more years. America quo vadis.
Maybe we can turn them into refugee camps for FBs, or prison camps for all the REIC fraudsters.
DennisN…
Its all the small towns with big town mentality…They believe “If we build it they will come” and to some degree they have been correct…Look at Mt. View and Castro Street…
Isn’t that the truth scdave. Loved Castro Street until it became yuppified. Same thing happened to Burlingame Avenue in Burlingame. I remember San Mateo Avenue in San Bruno had a great downtown area. Unfortunately, when Tanforan Mall was built, it put a lot of the mom and pop stores on San Mateo Avenue out of business. Never recovered.
For non-Bay-Aryans…
Castro Street in Mt. View is NOT the Castro District in SF….
It became the greatest street for cheap and good ethnic restaurants (mostly Asian) I’ve ever seen anywhere in the US. $5 would get you a great meal any door you walked into.
Where is the data center located ? Central Exp. ?
No…Reeve Street between De la Cruz and Lafayette St..Go by and take a look Its MASSIVE…I have been told that the electrical portion of the construction is around 200 mil !!…There is one going on Central Expressway though….
There’s no question that there were a lot of people who obtained a mortgage knowing darn well that they could not afford it. Overall, who is to blame? The Government for not protecting the citizens from the predators. They were only concerned with getting re-elected and bribe money. Also, the builders for asking lofty prices, the mortgage brokers, the scumbag Realtors, and even many buyers. The sad thing is that there were some people who saved for years to buy a house, not financially savvy but trustworthy, who got killed. Realtors and Financial Sales People will not be trusted for a least a generation.
Those who do their homework reap the benifits from those who don’t. The economy grades on a curve, just like in high school.
‘Some of my agents represent investors scooping up deals. They don’t really care if they’ve found the bottom. They’re getting homes below replacement cost, they’re holding them for three to five years and they’re getting cash flow. So to them, it’s a no-brainer.’”
In my experience once something drops 50% or more it very rare for it to recover it’s original price. Maybe these guys should start using their brains.
Agree. I prefer to use my brains in this sickly market and not buy yet. These ’specuvestors’ will lose, but a necessary purge for the true bottom to get closer.
i saw a quick clip flipping channels on one of those realty shows on TV. property virgins it was called. anyhow, they had the realtor and the married couple. anyhow, the realtor said “how much of a payment can you afford” they said $1800 then up to $2200. the realtor then said the house was 350k or so and did not want them to focus on the price, focus on your payment and what you can afford. The wife was like that is alot of money and it made her nervous to borrow that much, the realtywhore just said you need to focus on the payment and not the sheer number! just like a car salesman. I have always hated that…because it is not the payment that matters it is the debt!! That realtor is doing them no favor and in my opinion is manipulating the couple because if they spend more she earns more..talk about selfserving! I turned the channel and can’t watch any of those except maybe this old house once in awhile…atleast they are doing something worthwhile!
The realtwhore on that show is just horrid. She always pressures the buyers to focus on whatever payment/creative financing scheme she’s managed to contrive rather than the price, and to buy the most expensive property they’ve been approved for rather than thinking about actual affordability (her favorite tactic is to claim “another $100k in price = only another $25 per month in payments!”).
She always discusses what the bank will loan the buyers and the monthly mortgage payment, never what their incomes are or the TOTAL costs of ownership (taxes, insurance, maintenance, etc.).
I saw that too. When the wife said she didn’t want to pay more that 350K, (while the husband had just said he was willing to pay $400K), the realtor asked her why in that tone that is reserved for the irrational. I had to turn the channel then too.
I have seen that show and the Realtor is a smooth operator and is a perfect example of how the sales people get people to take on debt .
The way the first-time home buyers trust that bitch is a crying shame . The way she uses comps from other jerks to justify prices is a shame . The buyers should pay what they want and who cares what other people have done recently . What about the falling prices and high supply risk factor in any purchase that makes a lower price justified ? That bitch realtor is out for herself and its a shame that
she makes those poor first time buyers think she is a friend .
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ubsd-tWYmZw
Remember the infamous Century 21 “Suzanne Researched This” ad? It perfectly captured what happens when a nasty harpy of a wife finds an ally - or controller - in an unscrupulous reator, citing the “research” of a reptile who has only her own interests at heart, not those of her “clients.” The ad came out at just when the market was starting to turn, and unwittingly but uncannily captures the culpability of realtors in manipulating and pushing people who were foolish enough to trust them, into making disastrous financial choices. The realwhore, of course, gets her commission, while the FBs end up meeting their financial Waterloo.
Once again Sammy, it doesn’t say much about the man now does it?
No, it doesn’t. And any wife that would browbeat her husband like that lacks respect for both his opinion and his manhood.
Sure Sammy. Wives should not press their points. That is for men to do. Because men are smarter. If that’s the case in your household, then your wife must be a complete knucklehead.
@Big V,
IMO, that ad says more about Hollywood’s portrayal of men than women. Ever noticed how most men –especially white men– tend to be universally portrayed as either (a) doughy-faced, schlubby dim-wits (think: Seth Rogin), or (b) evil corporate villains? This meme is getting tiresome.
“‘Things stand very poorly,’ says Monica Caruso of the Southern Nevada Homebuilders Association. ‘This is more than a slowdown coming from the boom. The home-building industry is on hiatus in Southern Nevada.’”
Finally, one of their own “gets it”: all it’ll take is a good elbowing from Steve Wynn, and those POS SoNev Pulte shacks will by falling down faster than D-Fens Foster at a child-custody hearing.
Now I’ve got two crushes — Chris Thornburg and Monica Caruso. I’m so conflicted…but curious.
Luv,
Jen
There’s an interesting ménage a trois!
Yeah! Please be sure to bring a video camera along, Jen.
I know I’d pay for a clip. As long as no one abuses a leprechaun or involves a Surinam toad. I hate Surinam toads. Also no pickled jellyfish.
Everyone wants to be like CA. Hahahahahah. Posers!
(Just kidding. You know I’m just kidding, right? BUT STILL.)
(I put this in bits and it’s OT, but I want Primey to see it.)
‘Boeing Plane Division to Cut 4, 500 jobs’
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28580704
‘Most of the job cuts announced Friday are expected to occur in Washington state in the second quarter of the year, the company said. Boeing says employees will receive 60-day notices starting in late February.’
Oh. My. Sweet. Baby. Jeebus….
Primey! Remember when you predicted this?
This is gonna hurrrrrrrt….
Ha,
Workers in Seattle…sub-contractors in Asia…Administration in Chic-ago…customers in Dubai & Beijing . What kind of corporate strategy is that?
Sarah “The Barracuda” & Jeb “I made Florida Great!” Shrub II in 2012
I reckon the GOP Repubicans have tossed every other republican women politician to the wayside, it must be hard for any of them to overcome her daunting qualifications & experience, especially after 4 more years of running Alaska…with oil @ $25.00 barrel?
“And, it just so happens that conservative Republicans tend to be the ones who have the strongest say in the choice of the party’s presidential nominee every four years.
The more Palin can cement the idea that she is the populist voice that many Republicans have been waiting for ever since Ronald Reagan left office in 1988, the more likely it is she will retain her popularity among the rank and file of the party and be in a strong position should she decide to run for president in 2012.
Interviews like this one — and the subsequent publicity surrounding it — do just that. In a leaderless party, Palin is making sure her voice is heard loud and clear.”
Palin: Crazy or Crazy Like a Fox?
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2009/01/palin_crazy_or_crazy_like_a_fo.html?hpid=sec-politics
Wrong post placement…I’m a “bit” off, sorry. ;-(
The reps will desperately want to win in 2012 but the party as we have known it for the past eight years is dead, IMO…Personally, I don’t think the “Forced Dogma” Palin has any chance of being the nominee…I don’t even think she could carry the southern base…The American people learned a terrible lesson these last eight years…Palin is irrelevant…Look for the Gov. of Louisiana to be the pick….
I like the way that video superimposes the words “How Obama Got Elected” over Palin’s face. Very accurate. Though it’s a little unfair to Palin, given that McCain helped a little too.
The Republicans have become the zombie party of their Wall Street bankrollers. By 2012 things will be so bad that even the dumbest of the dumb will realize that Jeb Bush and Sarah Palin are absolutely not who we want at the helm. They will also realize, belatedly, the BOTH parties are to blame for how bad things are, and might even be open to REAL change, not the phony Messiah “Revenge of the Clintonistas” variety.
“…that even the dumbest of the dumb will realize that Jeb Bush and Sarah Palin are absolutely not who we want at the helm.”
Obviously Sammy…you’re not a paid subscriber to Rash Limpbaughs cult.
The determination using modern Karlroveanncoulterseanisanhannityrashlimpbaughs (I know..it’s a mouth full) calculus…is the GOP has no viable female candidate other than… Sarah “The Baracuda” .right?, right?,… there is no FEMALE in the GOP who can out shine: Sarah “The Barracuda” right, right? 2012…
Even after all this time, there are “owners” and analysts out there who still can’t grasp reality. Home prices have not collapsed suddenly and below value (cost of material, original price, bubble peak price, whatever). Home prices have started to return to normal values.
Take the replacement cost argument for starters. The building boom led to massive demand for copper, wood, marble, and appliances as well as enormous anticipated growth in demand for these materials. Basing today’s house prices on 2007’s commodities prices is stupid. Demand for raw materials has plummeted, leading to plummeting prices. Ignoring the fact that the entire premise of the argument is false, the cost of building one of these homes is indeed lower than the price on the market.
Home prices went up too much, almost twice the sustainable level. The peak on median price was somewhere around $235k. The sustainable price level during normal economic conditions is about $135k. With this severe recession (depression, contre-temps, time-out…call it what you like), I expect the median house price to income ratio to head to the lower range (based on unemployment, housing inventories, and lending availability) which is more like 2.4 to 2.5.
It’s simple. If you bought a house between 1998 and today, you have almost certainly lost money. (OK, all you RE sharks and geniuses can now respond and tell me how great YOU are and what amazing deals you did, blah, blah, blah).