It’s Like A Snowball Running Downhill
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “More than a million U.S. homeowners are expected to hand over their house keys in 2009, as they lose property to foreclosure. Judging by the increase in trustee’s sale notices, Bonner County has been swept up in this ugly national trend. Laura DeLand, a Realtor in Sandpoint said one client had a 10-acre property with a home and a barn on the market and couldn’t move it, despite a sizeable discount. ‘They owed $350,000 on it and I had it listed for $289,000,’ the Realtor said. ‘We still couldn’t sell it. The price spread is huge. You’re not talking about a difference of $20,000. You’re looking at $100,000 and up any more.’”
“‘I think the biggest share of these are people who got in and then the market changed,’ said Judie Bluemer, a mortgage consultant for Wells Fargo Home Mortgage. ‘They’re so upside down on their mortgages that they’re just walking away from them.’”
“New homes were springing up everywhere in 2005 and 2006. More than 1,400 new single family homes were built in those years, but far fewer, in the years following. ‘We saw a decline in 2006 –roughly 500 permits. This past year we dropped another 300 building permits so it’s probably just a reflection of the local building climate,’ said David Weir, Community Development director for the city of Las Cruces.”
“Residents said the slowdown has also hit their neighborhoods. ‘There’s no question the housing market has slowed down here. You can see that, but it’s nothing like the drops in California,’ said Vipin Gupta of Las Cruces’ east mesa.”
“Area home builders sold just 4,695 houses last year in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties as an historic real estate collapse diverted thousands of buyers to steeply discounted bank repos, according to statistics being released today by the Folsom-based Gregory Group. Several builders filed for bankruptcy protection as repos climbed to two-thirds of Sacramento County sales, and the median sales price fell to $175,000.”
“‘There’s a lot of good-quality bank-repossessed properties, good, clean homes that would be in direct competition with the builders,’ said Warren Adams of Security Pacific Real Estate in Fair Oaks. Many are nearly new, he said. ‘I’ve had several listings where they’re still selling the models in there.’”
“Cemex, the largest cement manufacturer in the nation, plans to pull the plug on the Davenport plant and lay off the bulk of its local work force, about 125 employees, for a minimum of six months beginning March 9, company officials announced Thursday.”
“‘Demand does not exist right now in California,’ Cemex spokeswoman Jennifer Borgen said. ‘This closure is purely the market. If you don’t have demand, you can’t continue to produce cement.’”
“The problem of parties in foreclosed homes nearly turned deadly when a man was shot as he tried to attend a large gathering Saturday night, officials said. ‘The people didn’t want him there,’ said Sgt. Kurt Lackman of the Victorville station. ‘This is a very big problem. We get calls every day about trespassing or vandalism at these foreclosed home. Now they’re using them as hangouts and places to party.’”
“With so many vacant homes, Lackman warned, ‘It’s not going to get better anytime soon.’”
“Becoming a mortgage broker in Indiana used to be easy. Too easy. There were no background checks to weed out people convicted of financial crimes, no tests to see whether brokers had taken required classes and understood the complex mortgage world. A company simply had to plop down $200 to get its state license before brokers could start matching home buyers to lenders.”
“‘It was kind of like the wild, wild West out there,’ said Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita. ‘You came in, you paid a small fee and boom — you were a mortgage broker.’”
“Shirley Webster, who grew up in the area and owns a home there, says the empty homes attract crime and hurt efforts to rebuild. ‘When we have properties that are in foreclosure, they sit vacant for a long time,’ she said. ‘A lot of people have gotten into these properties that really could not afford it.’”
“Kansas City’s rental housing administrator Dan Schmelzinger was opening the mail one day recently when he was surprised to find an envelope containing a $200 check from Paris. Other checks have come from California, Utah, Arizona, Florida and Washington state. The money is starting to arrive from absentee landlords all over the country and even foreign countries as Kansas City has launched a new enforcement program aimed at owners of problem properties.”
“Jerry Mitchell, a resident and community liaison with the Ruskin Heights Homes Association, said that…his neighborhood…has absentee landlords from California, Alaska, Hawaii, Florida and elsewhere. He cited one example of an owner from Kansas who recently was compelled to clean up a yard filled with a tenant’s discarded belongings after receiving an administrative citation.”
“Driving through his neighborhood, he called the city to report another property in the 11200 block of Corrington Avenue owned by a California landlord. He said the owner started to renovate the property five or six months ago, but then threw a pile of belongings out at the curb and left several weeks ago.”
“The economy has been as tough on real-estate agents as the rest of the state’s workforce. Maine’s Realtors sold 22 percent fewer existing single-family homes in November, compared to the same month a year ago, according to the Maine Real Estate Information System. ‘The conservative lending habits of local banks kept the central Maine market stable,’ said Don Plourde, owner of Coldwell Banker Plourde Real Estate. ‘But we definitely saw folks who got in over their heads with the amount of debt they thought they could handle.’”
“‘We’re seeing 2008 as a better year than 2007, but inventory levels can go down when people don’t put their houses on the market if they’re afraid they won’t get a good price,’ he said.”
“Michael Byrne has a 30-year career in the business and has owned the agency since 1986. There are 20 agents at his firm. ‘Fortunately, we didn’t have the wild speculation other parts of the country did,’ he said. ‘We had more of a gentle landing, not that it didn’t hurt a little bit.’”
“Complete with an Oval Office and Lincoln Bedroom, the Atlanta White House became a symbol of developers reshaping the urban landscape by tearing down modest ranches and bungalows and plopping McMansions in their place. The religiously themed mini-White House – which required the razing of three brick ranches – is now up for sale, facing foreclosure this week if the builder, an Iranian-born entrepreneur, can’t get a $9.88 million selling price.”
“‘There’s an awareness now that some of the homes frankly are too big,’ says Scott Van Duzor, a home builder in Illinois’s Fox River Valley. ‘The McMansion has almost become embarrassing to some people.’”
“Bank of America Corp., GMAC LLC, and WL Ross & Co. are among mortgage servicers that have endured billions of dollars in unexpected costs and added thousands of workers to handle rising foreclosures, denting a business once viewed as a safe haven from the housing market’s collapse.”
“Analysts say billionaire Wilbur Ross, who made a fortune buying bankrupt companies, overpaid when his firm purchased American Home Mortgage Investment Corp.’s servicing unit for $500 million in October 2007 and Option One Mortgage Corp.’s servicing business from H&R Block Inc. for $1.3 billion in May.”
“‘It looked pretty cheap and everyone thought Wilbur was really jumping in at the right time, but it doesn’t look cheap today,’ said Rob Snow, former head of lending at E*Trade Financial Corp. ‘The performance of some of the American Home securities that they are servicing has been absolutely horrific.’”
“‘It’s like a snowball running downhill,’ said Bob Caruso, a former president of Bank of America’s mortgage company.”
“Vice President Dick Cheney said Thursday that…President George W. Bush has no need to apologize for not foreseeing the economic crisis. ‘I don’t think he needs to apologize. I think what he needed to do is take bold, aggressive action, and he has,’ Cheney said. ‘I don’t think anybody saw it coming.’”
“Here it is. The column you’ve been waiting for. The REALLY best award-winning news stories for 2008! Crime rate shows mixed figures: While murder rates were down in our fair city, crimes of dangerous text messaging and toilet papering of trees were significantly higher. ‘We plan to make a notable improvement in these areas,’ said a police department spokesperson. People text messaging, while break dancing, will find a significant increase in fines. Toilet paper will now only be sold at the register to those over 21 years of age. An ID will be required.’”
“City Council fights recession: Members of the City Council have decided to give employees a significant raise. When one city worker was asked what she will do with the money, the 20-year veteran replied: ‘Simple. I’m going to spend it at the Wal-Mart Supercenter in Stockton.’”
“Junior college plans bite the dust: It appears that our city will not be home to a new community college. The college district has an unfortunate shortage of funds due to the recession, higher wage costs, and trustees using private Citation jets for personal transportation. ‘It’s really no big deal,’ said one trustee. ‘Since there are no chain book stores in this town, we figure the people here can’t read anyway.’”
“Dancing mascot fired for indecent behavior: The dancing banana in front of Peppy’s Pistachio Ice Cream Parlor was fired for making obscene gestures with his costume. It seems that the banana’s sexist and crude behavior deeply offended the twisting tomatoes next door at Pete’s Pole-Dancing Palace.”
“Housing picture looking brighter: Reports from local real estate agents say now is the time to buy a new home. New loan programs, now available from the government, pay the homeowners’ mortgages for the next 30 years. To qualify, local residents only need to show that they have no jobs, incomes or assets. With inflation caused by legislative handouts, the average $180,000 home should cost $15.8 billion by the year 2038.”
Another great week! My thanks to those who support this blog. Please check back this weekend.
Thank you Ben! We’ll be blogging live from San Diego on Saturday, I see if I can find some “homes” to send in some photo’s…
I only have 11 days left to kick around Nixon…er, I mean Cheney-Shrub…thanks for that little tidbit!
“Vice President Dick Cheney said Thursday that…President George W. Bush has no need to apologize for not foreseeing the economic crisis. ‘I don’t think he needs to apologize. I think what he needed to do is take bold, aggressive action, and he has,’ Cheney said. ‘I don’t think anybody saw it coming.’”
What? He’s never heard of stealth predator “shadow” financing before?
Yale education notwithstanding, I’m convinced that Shrub is too stupid to pull off any of the conspiracies that everyone accuses him of.
He resembles the Idiot nephew of the company CEO who, unable to get a job on his own merits, starts in the mailroom of his Uncle’s company, who then climbs rapidly up the food chain……..not because of his intellect, but as a means to get him the hell out of your department, before he screws up anything else.
W isn’t so much an idiot as someone who’s been put somewhere by people with less than honorable intentions. No matter where he turns he’s getting advice from crooks and sleezeballs, they’re the ones who made him and they’re the ones undoing him as well.
Stalin called folks like that useful idiots. They aren’t really retarded, merely blinded by ideology and bad friends. Ignorance and bad company are worse than being low IQ.
There’s some truth to what you say.
Totally agree with this. Bush has been used as a puppet by far more intelligent and malevolent people, IMHO. They had an agenda, and he was their fall guy.
I hope I’m drunk… the first time I meet a Yale cheer-leader who hails from Texas via New Haven, Connecticut .
I hope she is, too. And that you remember to bring a video camera along.* Instructional, like.
*see below post, re: Jen Bones and her new loves.
Bush was born on third base and they let him think he hit a triple!
That quote was by Jim Hightower and actually applied to George HW Bush.
Now you will have four years to waste your time commenting on the new empty suit at 1600.
Good Lawd - Ben - Just WOW!
The best post by far - speechless (let me tell you, that is a feat).
Thank YOU for the informative state-by-state and world view(s) you share here.
I’m holding you to the promise of the first autographed book published by you, Ben Jones!
Waiting patiently good Sir.
Best,
Leigh
“If you don’t have demand, you can’t continue to produce cement.”
Wow, Cemex gets it.
If they were HB’s they’d just produce themselves into bankruptcy.
Davenport plant and lay off the bulk of its local work force, about 125 employees ??
And for those of you who are not aware Davenport is a little Podunk place…Santa Cruz county has few decent paying jobs as it is.. Losing 125 has a huge impact on the local economy…
Santacruzsux…If your out there maybe you can add your thoughts…
I wouldn’t call Davenport a little Podunk place. It is small. Neat area to walk around especially on the west side of Highway 1.
I was just trying to express that it was a very small town to have that number of employees laid off…It a neat area…”Podunk” was the wrong choice of words…
Davenport is podunk…I live north of Half Moon Bay and I know podunk. Someday soon that old barn south of the Cash Store is gonna blown down when the 2×4’s call it a day; yep it’s podunk.
Now I do like Davenport, we stop there frequently in our weekly trips down to Santa Cruz. Love the Whale City Bakery, Bar & Grill (gotta love that combo!!) w/the funky dudes that live next door and the music in the evenings and hell they even take checks there. Anyway 125 jobs is pretty major. There are more than few workers that live in town. Now that I think of it, there *’might* be 125 houses all together in town. Santa Cruz is about 10 miles south. This weekend would be an wonderful opportunity to drive through and stop at the bakery for coffee, wine or a beer and bite and stare out over the ocean under sunny skies…..
Our your mattress is FREEEEEEEEEEEEE! “You’re killing me Larry!”
“…Santa Cruz county has few decent paying jobs as it is…”
And the medium $$$$$$$$$ cost for housing in Santa Cruz is? :
scdave, you’re killing me….
It’s little remembered but San Francisco rebuilt after the 1906 earthquake with redwood lumber and cement from Santa Cruz county (the previous San Francisco incarnation was built from redwood from now-barren Redwood City).
The US Santa Cruz campus has two giant “craters” left over from the limestone mining used in the production of cement: upper and lower quarries. Upper quarry is used as the campus amphiteater and it’s quite impressive.
They might. They’ve got a lot of debt to roll.
“They might.”
What I meant was: at least they stopped producing cement. It would be nice if the homebuilders stopped building homes.
Maybe they will run out of cement to pour slabs, thus bringing new home construction to a halt??
Naaah…….they’ll just lay the carpet and Pergo on the bare dirt.
“Naaah…….they’ll just lay the carpet and Pergo on the bare dirt.”
When I was still looking in FL, I checked out a place that had two rooms built on Earth, no foundation. I have a friend down the road who was digging in his backyard and discovered the pipes from the 2nd bathroom led to… nothing. The turd flow created a mini sinkhole in his backyard.
God, I really wish that were an exageration.
“When I was still looking in FL, I checked out a place that had two rooms built on Earth, no foundation. I have a friend down the road who was digging in his backyard and discovered the pipes from the 2nd bathroom led to… nothing. The turd flow created a mini sinkhole in his backyard”
We had an entire subdivision in the last recession that had no connection to sewer lines. The developer went broke and the subsequent developer didn’t know there was never a connection made. Built out all the houses and sold them. Several months after the last one sold the stuff started backing up.
Seems that there wasn’t a close sewer line and the cost of putting it in broke the second developer. The city wound up finishing the sewer connection.
In my area, they mine the used to be San Joaquin river First the water went, now the limestone would-be aggravate goes away in trucks. Haven’t seen a slowdown in digging. even with Caltrans delays.
I’m down with the need for rock, shocked, verily outraged that the river is no more.
Oh, Fresno County floated idea of closing park on the river. Lack of funds.
Rock on.
Not sure about all the debt (I have no position or interest in Cemex), they sold the Canary Island facility and I thought they rolled everything in December with financing from China.
A very well run Mexican Company that will make a boatload of money when the world’s stimulus packages unfurl.
I bought cemex at 5 and change about a month ago. Unfortunately, I was just lowering the cost since my wife has held some from a couple of years ago. I think she paid 24/share with a good dividend. Chavez took over two cemex plants back in August.
Hope it boosts General Cable as well. Think of the wires.
Disclosure: my late dad worked there long ago, so I have a small position in company; sentimental me.
Oh, about that whole ‘demand’ thingie:
‘Boeing Plane Division to Cut 4, 500 jobs’
http://tinyurl.com/9zd5jg
‘Most of the job cuts announced Friday are expected to occur in Washington state in the second quarter of the year, the company said. Boeing says employees will receive 60-day notices starting in late February.’
I already posted this just a bit ago, in bits AND the last thread, because I wanted Primey to be sure to see it, because he predicted this.
My brains is still all scrambilt about it. Really. This is gonna hurrrrrrrt….
“‘Demand does not exist right now in California,’ Cemex spokeswoman Jennifer Borgen said. ‘This closure is purely the market. If you don’t have demand, you can’t continue to produce cement.’”
Any of you NY boyz know any mob wiseguys that need extra lunch money ?
Americans COULD use a lot of well fitted cement booties around the Wall Street and DC
“The problem of parties in foreclosed homes nearly turned deadly when a man was shot as he tried to attend a large gathering Saturday night, officials said. ‘The people didn’t want him there,’ said Sgt. Kurt Lackman of the Victorville station.”
This is for dave in Parrish: I spoke with a fellow the other day who lives in Riverbend, the Lennar development you used to rent in. Wow, are you ever lucky you got out. This guy is at his wits’ end. He owns there. His car gets broken into regularly and there’s tagging going on. He said gangs were using the place for initiations!!!!!!! He’s worried about his kids living there. I think he said they haven’t even built the promised pool or clubhouse and it is supposed to be gated, but there’s no gate!!! Plus he’s taxed like it is some “upscale” community. I heard it was bad, but I had no idea how bad it really was, I thought they had a pool and clubhouse.
“The people didn’t want him there.”
He was probably from the Homeowner’s Association.
Priceless!
I was thinking that he was a neighbor who invited himself over. The neighbors should start living part-time in the empty houses, IMO.
‘The neighbors should start living part-time in the empty houses, IMO.’
Well, I know I need more room for my books…
Hey Palmetto and all HBBers,
We’ve been out of there about 6 months now and it has gotten much worse. It’s true they never put in the pool, clubhouse, or any amenities including the gates. I just noticed this week on MLS listings houses at 85k, 102k, 106k, etc. These places sold for minimum 240k two years ago. Others that sold for 400-500k are now listed in the one hundreds (and not selling). They have 4 Lexington homes that were priced in the upper 600’s just sitting empty for at least a year and a half. There are about 8 unfinished homes by an upscale builder that started in the mid 800’s boarded up and being taken over by weeds…
That place is a total disaster. The street we lived on was pretty stable until we left. Since then almost every neighbor near us (7-8 of them) has moved. So apparently the middle of the night incident we experienced was just the beginning of the major problems. We are so glad to be gone (went through there around Christmas and it continues downhill fast) and are extremely happy in our current rental. We have always been homebuyers until the Riverbend move, but we are really enjoying the freedom and flexibility of renting now.
Oh yeah, the taxes are ridiculous. Most are paying 5-10k, plus HOA and CDD !!!! Oh, and let’s not forget the insurance….
“Vice President Dick Cheney said Thursday that…President George W. Bush has no need to apologize for not foreseeing the economic crisis. ‘I don’t think he needs to apologize. I think what he needed to do is take bold, aggressive action, and he has,’ Cheney said. ‘I don’t think anybody saw it coming.’”
Aw, Dick baby, we’ve really been able to count on you for absurdist statements that’re fact- and reality-free — on any number of subjects. And you say this stuff with such gruff confidence. You have a unique gift.
I’m gonna miss you, baby.
(A little bit.)
The Hague is where that asswipe goes. Friggin war criminal.
Azzweepay. It’s pronounced Azzweepay.
Never happen!
“Dancing mascot fired for indecent behavior: The dancing banana in front of Peppy’s Pistachio Ice Cream Parlor was fired for making obscene gestures with his costume. It seems that the banana’s sexist and crude behavior deeply offended the twisting tomatoes next door at Pete’s Pole-Dancing Palace.”
What the article omitted to mention was that the local high-school students’ favorite lunchtime hangout , Pepe’s Pink Taco Town, is directly across the street from Peppy’s. If I were Pepe, I’d be so righteously indignant; in fact, I’d sue their banana ass.
Luv,
Jen
LOL Jen
“Vice President Dick Cheney said Thursday that…President George W. Bush has no need to apologize for not foreseeing the economic crisis. ‘I don’t think he needs to apologize. I think what he needed to do is take bold, aggressive action, and he has,’ Cheney said. ‘I don’t think anybody saw it coming.’”
Ok, would somebody please explain to me why it is that so many people take the role of enabler for Little Caligula? I don’t get it. Is Ma Babs standing around somewhere with a bat telling people “Be good to my little Georgie or I’ma gonna git you.”? It’s not just people like Cheney and that real laugh-a-minute the Rovester, I mean, you’ve got Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Barney Frank, enablers all.
Honest to God, this whole thing reminds me of some socially prominent matron with an absolute worthless, nasty little kid, threatening the parents of other kids if they don’t play nice with the little brat, let him take the honors, give him do-overs, etc. I JUST. DON’T. GET IT.
It’s simple, really. If they said they saw it coming, but didn’t do anything, you would have grounds for some people to be thrown in jail.
Expect to hear the same thing from just about everyone that could have had a hand in reigning things in, or fired a few warning flares, but didn’t.
The PTB wanted the party to continue, because it gave them cover to hide the fact that the US economy has been falling off the deep end since the late 90’s. The non-government economy has been shrinking in that time frame, if you take the artificial growth caused by the housing bubble out of the equation.
And meanwhile, Alfred E. Neuman is there like “What, Me Worry?”
Or Howdy Doody. “Hey boyz and girlz, wanna house?”
Wasn’t too many months ago when I attended one of those economic forecasting breakfasts. The PowerPoint that bopped my bean the hardest was the one that showed American households’ net asset values declining during the 1990s.
And, as we all know, those values went negative during this decade.
The vast majority have a two week attention span and love to lay blame in short increments(simple minds). Fact is we have been on this train heading for the cliffs edge for decades, but that’s history and that bores most people to tears.
Hey what/who’s Britney or Paris doing and the lumps perk right up.
Another victim of Britney and Paris envy.
That’s right; you like Britney, don’t you? I seem to recall some heated post on the subject awhile ago.
“The economy has been as tough on real-estate agents as the rest of the state’s workforce. Maine’s Realtors sold 22 percent fewer existing single-family homes in November, compared to the same month a year ago, according to the Maine Real Estate Information System…”
Let all damned scum sucking re-agents eat squirrels and cupCAKES
crimes of dangerous text messaging and toilet papering of trees were significantly higher ??
Police state protecting us from the evils of society…Where the hell does it stop.??..Gees !!
“…Police state protecting us from the evils of society…Where the hell does it stop.??”
Rumor of the day:
Homeland Security will now be flagging/screening anyone who presents a Green AMEX card for airline ticket purchases.
Yeah I get fines for unkempt rosebed mulch.
Apologies to Dave Barry. am not fibbing.
‘I don’t think anybody saw it coming.’
Nobody who saw it coming was allowed access to the bully pulpit.
Not at all. There were warning voices all along. I had no trouble finding Fleckenstein and the Prudent Bear guy whose name escapes me at the moment.
There was no shortage of people who saw it coming who had access to media outlets. The mobs of corrupt politicians and stpuid buyers merely chose to ignore them as did many of the stuffed shirts who populate our TV “news” and “financial” outlets.
As Nystrom likes to point out = “turn off your TV and think”.
The guy you are thinking of is Doug Noland.
You can hear archived interviews of him on financial sense. There’s one recorded in 2005 which is amazingly prescient about the financial crisis.
Ding ding ding.
We have a winner!
“Nobody who saw it coming was allowed access to the bully pulpit.”
Hence blogs sprung into being and are now flourishing.
That is not quite true. Why Mr. Peter Schiff was on Mr. Goldilocks’ show and was allowed to speak before he was soundly and rightly ridiculed.
At least we are not in as bad a shape on the media as Korea. Look up the Korean blogger ‘Minerva’ - scary to be right on forecast in that country. Jail? maybe! Banned from the internet. Fer sure.
“‘Demand does not exist right now in California,’ Cemex spokeswoman Jennifer Borgen said. ‘This closure is purely the market. If you don’t have demand, you can’t continue to produce cement.’”
But you can still: Drill Here! Drill Now!…it’s just tough to find a cheap $$$$$$ place to store all this extra “black gold”,… hey, perhaps the gov’t will start filling the even/odd salt tanks again! Wow, maybe Palin 2012 can setup a direct pipeline to Louisiana…USA workers/suppliers only!
They just “cap” the wells and bring them into production when they need them. No storage is necessary. It stays in the ground with a pipe going right to it. There are a lot of “capped” wells sitting idle waiting for the right time. (I used to work on exploration oil rigs)
This reminds me of a guy that was on our crew (Hey “shearpin” if you’re out there). When people would try to make him hurry he would say “That oil has been in the ground for millions of years… another day is not going to hurt it.” He also tried to crawl out of a moving convertible because suddenly everyone in the car “turned into monkeys.” Hahaha…those were the days!
“‘Demand does not exist right now in California,’ Cemex spokeswoman Jennifer Borgen said. ‘This closure is purely the market. If you don’t have demand, you can’t continue to produce cement.’”
Damn if that old supply and demand thing keeps popping up more often.This will be a brand new lesson to many. All the kings men will try and try to put it back together again, to no avail.
First:
“Michael Byrne has a 30-year career in the business and has owned the agency since 1986. There are 20 agents at his firm. ‘Fortunately, we didn’t have the wild speculation other parts of the country did,’ he said. ‘We had more of a gentle landing, not that it didn’t hurt a little bit.’”
You braindead asswipes here in New England keep telling yourselves that. The rest of us here saw prices double at a very minimum. And it so happens that the party hit a wall very recently so your soft landing characterization is gonna change in a hurry. Don’t believe me? NYC is ground zero for imploding RE as we speak.
Second:
‘inventory levels can go down when people don’t put their houses on the market if they’re afraid they won’t get a good price,’ he said.”’
Yes inventories CAN go down but that’s not whats happening is it HappyTalkBoy???? The fact is there isn’t a snowballs chance in hell that a buyer exists at the lofty prices you’ve promised money grubbing sellers.
Good luck you lying maggot real estate agents.
“a 14+% ounce of prevention…is worth a $3.2 trillion pounds of cure!”
Sir Al Greenisspent, April 15th 2001
Honestly..I meant to type April 1st 2001…honestly, some kind of slip.
April 15th… a day of death… Lincoln & honest income
They just don’t do pardon’s the old fashioned way ant more:
Hey Shelby (Hyundai) Corker( Kia) McConnell (Toyota): Damn those Detroit Yankees!
Southern trivia:
“The President and First Lady arrived at Ford’s Theatre after the play began, Lincoln had been delayed at the White House by Missouri Senator John B. Henderson who successfully appealed for a pardon for George S.E. Vaughn who had thrice been convicted of espionage for the Confederates and was sentenced to die. It was Lincoln’s last official act as President.”
Vaughn was born in Virginia and moved to Canton, Missouri. He was recruited into the Confederate Missouri State Guard cause by Martin E. Green, brother of U.S. Senator James S. Green.
Forgot the link… ;-(
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_S.E._Vaughn
“Green, while camping at Tupelo, Mississippi, dispatched Vaughn to delivers letters to his wife in Canton. Vaughn was captured six miles south of Canton at La Grange, Missouri. The letters were found, and Vaughn was accused of being a spy and was sentenced to be shot.
Missouri Senator John B. Henderson intervened with Lincoln to get a new trial, but the verdict was the same. Henderson got Lincoln to approve yet a third trial and again the verdict was the same.
On the afternoon of April 14, 1865, Henderson appealed again to Lincoln telling him, “Mr. Lincoln, this pardon should be granted in the interest of peace and conciliation.”
Lincoln was said to have replied, “Senator, I agree with you. Go to Stanton and tell him this man must be released.”
Henderson went to the office of Edwin M. Stanton and Stanton refused, saying the execution was to be carried out in two days. Henderson returned to the White House where he met the President dressed to go to Ford’s Theatre.
Lincoln wrote a message on official stationary an order for an unconditional release and pardon telling Henderson, “I think that will have precedence over Stanton.”
Real Estate lust will screw you over in any country. This loser used the revenues from his successful software company to buy land!!
________
Satyam blockbuster: Law of land vs Raju’s love of land
New Delhi: What caused Satyam’s downfall? What lead Ramalinga Raju, once a gentleman, to turn fraud accused of embezzling Rs 7000 crore?
Murky details now emerging point to his love for land that lead to his undoing. His family has brought close to 6,500 acres of land through Maytas Properties ranking them among India’s top 10 landlords.
For their real estate empire they needed money and Satyam, many say, was milked for it. Raju was close to ex-CM Chandrababu Naidu, who paraded him to gain global goodwill for Hyderabad.
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/satyam-blockbuster-law-of-land-vs-rajus-love-of-land/82389-7.html
Never would have believed this had a R/E connection.
Satyam consultants are some of the most talented, hardworking, and honorable around. And to think they might not meet payroll. Unbelieveable.
Reading some quotes form India government, interesting how they speak differently than we do. They are using the word punish. India gov wants both Satyam leadership and PWC “punished”.
HBB Joke of the Day: type this in Google = 18,300 pages in 0.27 seconds!
$850,000 garden grove ca
This muni bond scandal is really pissing me off. Wall Street is one rat-infested cesspool. The Russian mafia has nothing on these bastards.
Seems like everything we’ve been pedaled over the years as solid investments has turned out be be scams. Wall Street isn’t getting one more slim dime out of me until it cleans up it’s act. Even my 401K is all cash now. Screw you guys who kept e-mailing me to invest more in the market as it continued to fall. No more “Management Fees” for losing more of my money you toads.
‘While being grilled by prosecutors about his friend Dick Grasso, Ken Langone - head of the NYSE compensation committee - had this to say:
“There’s an old saying, that if you have a seat on the New York Stock Exchange, it’s a license to steal.”
“I shouldn’t say that in front of a prosecutor, but anyway,” Langone stammered, according to a record of that deposition.
“What a dope!
“As chatty as Langone was, Grasso was mute. He repeatedly took the Fifth - the Constitutional protection from self-incrimination - during testimony before the Securities & Exchange Commission last June.
“He took it 168 times, in fact, during the 92 minutes he sweated before five lawyers for the SEC.
“Try repeating “I assert my Fifth Amendment privilege” 168 times and see if your tongue isn’t tired.”
God I loved Mr. Eliot Spitzer’s showmanship! Yes it is an old saying and with validity.
“…Grasso was mute. He repeatedly took the Fifth - the Constitutional protection from self-incrimination -”
Also known as: the Clarence Thomas “read my lips” strategy of Intellectual engagement.
If Spitzer had kept it in his pants he could have been Attorney General. Even with his flaws, he still was the one person able to make Wall Street pee itself, and that’s the only feeling that will keep these people in line. I’d support him right now for the post and even would volunteer to help pay his future hooker bills.
City of San Jose just sent a letter out warning workers that cuts are coming, revenues are way down due to slowdown. Travel at airport has fallen drastically cutting income. Construction projects being cancelled before they can start. Worst part is they are going to spend rainy day fund to minimize layoffs rather than take the medicine up front. Due to seniority rules you can be laid off if you are newer even if you are great at your job so some lacky above you can have your job. At least those bumped down get pay cuts to lower grades.
my county fairfax ,va has jobs you never heard of
tree planing programs and hybrid SUVs
Kudos to Mr. Steve Hansen on a very funny article.
Shot some pepsi out my nose on that one, for sure.
Once again, to Mr. Ben Jones, nice job on this blog.
Nothing new to report here, just watching the wheels spin.
Mr. Cheney, we both know you’re full of poo about no one seeing this coming. All the people on this blog were screaming about what’s happening starting four freaking years ago, and we were quite literally called crazies.
Good luck with that.
I shall now return to lurking, as you are all doing such an absolutely wonderful job, my comments are not needed here.
Hey, auction! Good to see you again. Started making babies yet?
Thanks, CA.
Umm… not particularly concerned about making babies at the moment. Just been saving money and getting rid of stuff not needed. Whittled myself down to being able to fit just about everything in my BMW 328i (One of the best, most reliable cars ever made, and damn fast, too.) Yeah, I’ve sold- at very good prices- lots and lots of stuff I either didn’t need or just plain took up space. Feels good to get rid of all that crap. I’m on the edge of being able to move wherever I want, whenever I want, with little to no hassle at all. I must admit, it was a lot of work, ’slimming myself down’.
For instance, I just converted my entire music collection to 320k mp3’s, backed up on three hard drives, and completely mobile on several 16gb SDHC memory cards. I then sold my entire CD collection for a profit of around $5,000. Not bad. Got to keep the music, and sold the heavy stuff it gets stored on. I call that a ‘win’.
That’s only one tiny part of my ’slimming myself down’ strategy, but it give you an idea what I’ve been doing. I have either sold, or thrown away, quite literally, an ENTIRE HOUSE FULL of stuff in the last two years. No kidding. And my bank account is very, very happy from it.
As far as buying a house, though, I don’t think it’s time to pull the trigger. We still have around $100,ooo to go in the median price for that to become a desire. Thus, I am still sitting on the sidelines, with Neil and his popcorn.
On the subject of my family…
At some point, I’ll tell all of you about the horrible thing that happened to me, but now is not the time.
It’s pretty horrible.
Someday soon.
Good to see you again, although like I said, I’m always here, just lurking. No need to rant and rave when you guys are doing just fine.
At some point, I’ll tell all of you about the horrible thing that happened to me, but now is not the time.
It’s pretty horrible.
———————
Sorry to hear about that.
Tell us whenever — and if ever — you feel like it.
Page 144 of January Oprah mag features our own ahansen.
She talks of the bear attack, great photo of her and the doggie heroes.
Way to go!
any way to link to it ?
I dunno, maybe oprah.com, I knew about it so picked up a copy at the store.
Hi, losty! Where you? Are you in Montana, preparing to get more overeducated? How’s your dogs? How’s you? Do you have matching napkins available at this time? Does this mean you abandoned your nice big tub and new wastebasket? I suspect so….* shakes fluffy Olyhead in one of those old-lady patronizing and annoying gestures *
I bet you don’t have any matching napkins at this time.
Oh, I forgot to finish the asterisk thought. I was going to scold you for abandoning civilization and blasting off to the wilderness yet again.
I’m in old-lady mode, because I’m going to start a pot-roast in a minute. I just love a good pot-roast. I have on a white apron with a…oh, wait, this’s my wrong white apron! This one is covered with paint! The food one is covered with gravy and smeared peas. I gotta go change.
THEN I will scold you.
Hey, Oly, I made a potroast for my dogs the other day, they’re still munching on it (I’m a veggie-tarian, though I should say veggie/sugar-tarian). They would’ve eaten it in one fell swoop if I’d let them.
I’m still in Utarrr, waiting for the folks who are subleasing my house to show (they’re good friends and have an illness in the family), if they don’t come in time for me to head out for Montana, I’m gonna go up to Sundance and help my friend Robbie Redford work on a film until I can get in for summer semester. But I’ll be bummed, I’ve already started a movie and I need snow, since it’s called “Attack of the Killer Snowshoe Hares”…you’d like it, has to do with developers and such…
And hey, hope you haven’t floated away up there in all that flooding…
“Attack of the Killer Snowshoe Hares”…you’d like it, has to do with developers and such…’
Do they all die? The developers? Say ‘yes’, please.
I tried to be a vegetarian, once. It was the only time I ever got sick and was all hacky and germy. I had to conclude that Jeebus wants me to eat His other creations, or else He would have made me different, because as soon as I ate someone else I felt great and my germs went away. Sigh.
What is the title of the article?
“When the Roof Falls In” - various accounts, hers is called “Attacked by a Bear”.
She’s also going to be in People, so watch for it.
Pretty soon, a post will show up with a link to the article.
Cool, Big V, could you also post this tomorrow? I think a lot of people here would like to read it, it’s late, and I’ll be gone.
I found the link:
http://www.oprah.com/article/omagazine/200901_omag_change_happens/4
Also in the January 19nth People page 111.
Hoz, is this inflationary?
“Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. will lay off at least 1,550 workers at its Morenci copper mine, the Phoenix-based company said Friday.”
****************************
” Boeing Co., the world’s second-largest airplane maker, is planning to cut about 3 percent of its work force as jetliner demand falls, hurt by the global economic downturn.
The Chicago-based company on Friday said it expects to cut about 4,500 positions ”
***********************
“Passenger traffic at Sky Harbor International Airport plunged nearly 13 percent in November due to the weak economy and dramatic flight cutbacks by airlines.
The total passenger count was 2.96 million, down from 3.4 million in November 2007.”
*************************
“Retail food prices at the supermarket decreased in the fourth quarter of 2008, according to the latest Arizona Farm Bureau Federation Marketbasket Survey. The informal survey shows the total cost of 16 basic grocery items was $54.75, down 4.7 percent or $2.71 from the third quarter of 2008.”
“Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. will lay off at least 1,550 workers at its Morenci copper mine, the Phoenix-based company said Friday.”
Cliffs Natural Resources
Cleveland, OH
Marquette, MI
Cliffs Natural Resources says more than 300 employees of the Tilden and Empire mines in Marquette County will be laid off Sunday because of the economic slowdown. And company spokesman Dale Hemmila tells The Mining Journal of Marquette that 70 additional workers will be laid off in March. The two iron ore mines will be down for part of this summer, beginning in early July. The Tilden mine will close for 26 days, while Empire will be down for seven weeks. Cliffs announced last month that combined production at both mines would be reduced from an estimated 12 million tons of iron ore in 2008 to 6.7 million tons this year. Presently, there are about 1,600 workers at the two mines.
The Associated Press - January 6, 2009
Shore Gold Inc
Saskatoon, Saskatchewan
Shore Gold Inc. is scaling back its budget for 2009 in reaction to the turmoil in financial and diamond markets, the company said Tuesday. The diamond exploration company is also laying off 89 employees as part of the cutback. George Read, the company’s senior VP of exploration and development, said the company will lay off 89 of 100 people on-site, in part because of the reduction in spending and in part because the company is winding down exploration while turning its attention to evaluating the costs of building a mine. The employees were advised of the layoffs Tuesday.
Source: The Star Phoenix - January 8, 2009
Teck Cominco Limited
Vancouver, BC
Teck Cominco Ltd. said Thursday it is cutting roughly 1,400 jobs, or 13 percent of its global workforce, as it moves to cut its costs and improve its competitiveness. The Vancouver-based mining company said the cuts will be made in each of its business units to bolster its profit margins in the face of weak commodity prices. Teck said it is cutting staff and contractors associated with exploration activities and research and development, and eliminating redundancies at the corporate level created with the company’s recent acquisition of Fording Canadian Coal Trust’s assets. Teck is active in the mining of copper, metallurgical coal, zinc and gold.
CBC News - January 8, 2009
Sure is inflationary. When the cost of production is greater than the price, F’ the workers. If oil goes down to $37/ bbl then Canada stops all oil production. They are already slowing production and laying off workers. These are just a sampling of the mines that have shut down or riffed in the last 3 months. In 6 months, there will be scarcity problems in the US. Currently there is less than 45 days in reserves in the US of base metals.
As for Arizona food, the basket includes one offs (Cattle and Hog slaughter to reduce herds) that will not be reproducible in the near future. You are still $6 higher than the rest of the country. I would stock up on the meats.
Hoz:
Are you expecting more deflation? As in the value of the $$?
Fair maiden,
The US dollar will drop another 25% against the Yen, unless the Japanese Central Bank violates its mandate and overstimulates to create a bubble. Bubbles are banned in Japan since the fiasco with Japanese RE a few years ago.
The US is trying valiantly to deflate the dollar. It is not possible to deflate into prosperity.
Europe is late to the party, but Club Med’s bonds are yielding 2X as much as German bonds - Greece government 10yrs are yielding almost 7%! That is Euro default value. I know the Euro is going down, the question is will there be mutual devaluation of fiat currencies?
Asia will be the first to recover - Japan, China, Taiwan, Korea and by default Australia and NZ. The Asian recovery will be a ‘V’ and will start later this year. Most of Asia is debt free with large cash reserves, most Asian companies are debt free with large cash reserves (unless audited by PWC, in which case the reserves may be false). India will not participate - avoid at all cost.
Approximately 40% of the US stimulus will flow to Asia over the next 5 years. Heavy machinery from Japan and solar panels from China for example. 10% of China’s GDP will come from the US stimulus program. Unintended consequences.
If prices creep up, then these mines will start right back up. The capacity is there, the demand isn’t.
Asia is not going to have an easy time converting from an expeort to a consumer economy… With all the countries they export to in depression, they are not going to V.
Hoz, I used to REALLY respect your opinion. Now you seem little more than one of the Realtors, ignoring the basics of affordability, debt/income ratios, debt collapse that is in full swing. You ignore the low wages that have not kept up with prices. You ignore the lost purchasing power as consumers lose access to debt.
There can’t be inflation without demand, there can’t be demand if we can’t get people spending, and we can’t get people spending if they can’t get unlimited access to debt that they don’t have to ever repay.
What the economy has been for the last 30 years, it will not be again ANY time soon.
“The most dangerous thing in the world is finding someone you agree with. If say a TV station news is saying exactly what you think is right BE BEWARE! You are very likely only reinforcing your believes and not being supplied with new information. A newssource that says the exact opposite of what you believe to be true will cause you to either outright deny it (bad) or search for the real truth.
Con men always work with this, they tell you what you want to hear so that you will end up trusting them and then they can scam you.”
courtesy to: Small Furry Creature
What the news is telling me is very much what you are telling me. What I see, is the data from the Fed showing the $ trillions a year we’ve been living on.
What I see around me all day every day tells me it is “party over”.
I used to be a big beliver in the inflation story. Now, I don’t. I don’t see it as a possibility. The wages are not there to support higher prices.
We don’t have the income to support our lifestyles. Loss of access to ever larger sums of debt = crashing demand. Crashing demand = deflation.
If the fed gives money to banks, they hold on to it because there is no one that wants to go into debt that is likely to be able to pay it back.
If they give the money to people, they will use it to pay down debt, shrinking the money supply and leaving bankers without the interest income they need to cover losses.
If the government spends it on make work projects, the materials needed for the project will be purchased overseas, stimulating other countries but not us.
There is no way to go back to Americans spending 110% of their incomes, forever, without ever paying on or for the debt.
Darrell,
You are rightly pointing to the demand destruction, and hoz is rightly pointing to the resultant supply destruction.
I’m beginning to see it too, and there was a discussion the other day here about supply shrinkage.
The suppliers are not going to continue over-producing while prices are going down. With “just-in-time” manufacturing and inventory, there is a fairly quick move from over-supply to under-supply. I think this is what hoz is talking about.
This is certainly going to be interesting to watch.
But supply destruction has an immediate feedback right into unemployment and then additional demand destruction.
I’m sorry, but I’m seeing demand destruction and deflation everywhere I look. I don’t think the stimulus will have any effect. I don’t think the old tools are working nor do I think they will work.
What a bummer……no more “Ice Road Truckers”
I’ll miss the trucking company owner who called his drivers pu##ies, because they were bitching about no heat in the truck cab, when the temp was 60 below.
Damn hired help…..they are all worthless nowadays.
I noticed we didn’t see his ass out there on the ice road…….
“Laura DeLand, a Realtor in Sandpoint said one client had a 10-acre property with a home and a barn on the market and couldn’t move it, despite a sizeable discount. ‘They owed $350,000 on it and I had it listed for $289,000,’ the Realtor said. ‘We still couldn’t sell it. The price spread is huge. You’re not talking about a difference of $20,000. You’re looking at $100,000 and up any more.’”
The jig is up on high land prices. This place likely won’t fetch $250k, and there are still jokers listing 5 acre parcels with zero improvements for $200k in northern Idaho. Keep dreaming. Raw land in that jobless area should run less than $5k per acre, and that’s being generous.
You may be overlooking that Sandpoint is the birthplace of Sarah Palin and the current residence of Mark Fuhrman.
Industrial production fell in October, and auto sales dropped by 20% in November. That was before Mumbai and Satyam. Yet the consensus is still forecasting a 5% growth rate for this year. Does that make sense?
Oh, I almost forgot, it’s India. It’s different there. They’ll always grow fast, from now to the end of time. They’re decoupled, like China. And they’re favorite place to invest is in 30-year Treasury bonds, thank goodness. We’re saved.
http://tinyurl.com/75tdsu
oops, they’re=their. (Strange, I’ve written “their” for “there” and vice versa, but never that one.)
January 09, 2009
The Fed’s Bubble Trouble
by Peter Schiff
A few weeks ago when the Fed announced a strategy designed to bring down long-term interest and home mortgage rates through unlimited Treasury bond purchases, government debt staged a spectacular rally. To the unschooled market observer, the spike may be difficult to understand. After all, why would the value of Treasury bonds rise while their underlying credit quality is deteriorating faster than Bernie Madoff’s social schedule? The move is actually a perfect illustration of the tried and true Wall Street strategy of “buy the rumor and sell the fact”.
If it is well known that Fed will be a big purchaser of Treasuries, those buying now will be positioned to unload their holdings when the buying spree begins. If the Fed pays higher prices in the future, traders can earn riskless speculative profits. If the traders lever up their positions, as many are likely doing, even small profits can turn unto huge windfalls.
The downside of course, is that all of the demand for Treasuries is artificial. Treasuries are now in the hands of speculators looking to sell, not investors looking to hold. These players are analogous to the mid-decade condo-flippers who flocked to new developments for quick profits. They did not intend to occupy their properties, but rather flip them to future buyers. Once these properties came back on the market, condo prices collapsed, as developers were forced to compete for new sales with their former customers.
This is precisely what will happen with Treasuries. Just as the U.S. government issues mountains of new debt to finance the multi-trillion annual deficits planned by the Obama Administration, speculative holders of existing debt will be offering their bonds for sale as well. In order to prevent a complete collapse in the bond prices the Fed will be forced to significantly increase its buying.
However, since the only way the Fed can buy bonds is by printing money, the more bonds they buy the more inflation they will create. As inflation diminishes the investment value of low-yielding Treasuries, such a scenario will kick off a downward spiral. But the more active the Fed becomes in their quest to prop up bond prices, the bigger the incentive to hit the Fed’s bid. The result will be that all Treasuries sold will be purchased by the Fed. But with the resulting frenzy in the Treasury market, and with inflation kicking into high gear, we can expect that demand for other debt classes that the Fed is not backstopping, such as corporate, municipal and agency debt, to fall through the floor, pushing up interest rates across the board.
In order to “save” the economy from these high rates the Fed will then have to expand its purchases to include all forms of debt. If that happens, run-away inflation will quickly turn into hyper-inflation, and our currency will be worthless and our economy left in ruins.
To avoid this nightmare scenario, the Fed should pull out of the bond market before it’s too late and let prices fall to where real buyers, those willing to hold to maturity, re-enter the market. Given how high inflation will likely be by the time this happens, my guess is that long-term Treasury yields will have to rise well into the double digits to clear the market.
The grim reality of course is that when the real estate bubble burst the Government was able to “bail-out” private parties. However, when the bond market bubble bursts, it will be the U.S. Government itself that will be in need of the mother of all bailouts. If U.S. taxpayers or foreign creditors are unwilling or unable to pony up, and if the nightmare hyper-inflation scenario is to be avoided, default will be the only option. If misery really does love company, Bernie Madoff’s clients might finally find some comfort.
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Here’s the link to the most recent CA Employment Development Department Listing of WARN (Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification) aka layoffs by Location - for 2009:
http://tinyurl.com/7q9lkt. The link is a 5 page PDF file.
I don’t beleive it specualtors still trying to flip homes !!
Seller’s Description:
Darling Single-story, Moorpark. Fantastic cul-de-sac location for this detached one-story, 2BR + 2BA home w/a very large private yard. The home features living room & dining room w/vaulted ceilings, spacious kitchen, eating area, fresh paint & attached 2-car garage. Great move-in condition throughout. $399,900.
Value Range: $336,660 - $383,720
30-day change: -$33,500
Zestimate updated: 01/09/2009
Last sale and tax info
Sold 11/28/2008: $370,000
2008 Property Tax: $2,181
If you like high density (beehive) living, among snot nose yuppie brats and their brat offspring, Moorpark is your town. We lived (owned)in a PUD there (Mountain Meadows) and hated it. Then we moved to Wood Ranch (another PUD) in Simi Valley, across from the Reagan Library and hated that too, although the interior of our luxury home was a knock-out.
PUD’s suck. Never again.
I’m surprised no one has commented yet on the Atlanta White House. That building could be rented out for parties, corporate events, reality television shows, or perhaps even a porn, with Ron Jeremy as “Mr. President.” Maybe we could have the first ever HBB convention there, with Thornburg as the keynote speaker. I will personally invite Fishkind.
Source: The Star Tribune
U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman and his wife, Laurie, have refinanced or changed the terms of their mortgage on their St. Paul house 12 times in the past 14 years.
Ramsey County property tax records indicate the Colemans have assumed greater and greater debt, increasing from a 30-year $172,900 mortgage in 1994 to a 30-year $775,000 mortgage the couple took out in March 2007.
Their house on St. Paul’s Osceola Avenue has a 2009 estimated market value of $615,000, according to property tax records, suggesting they may owe substantially more than the property is worth.
The extent of the Colemans’ refinancing, first reported Thursday by the online political website Politico, comes to light as Coleman faces continued scrutiny over his personal finances. Allegations have been made in two lawsuits that multimillionaire Nasser Kazeminy attempted to steer $75,000 to Coleman last year from an underwater services company in Texas that Kazeminy controls. In addition, Coleman has also faced questions about his living arrangements in Washington and his relationship with businessman and Republican insider Jeff Larson, who owns the million-dollar Capitol Hill row house where Coleman rents a bedroom and bath.
“With so many vacant homes, Lackman warned, ‘It’s not going to get better anytime soon.’”
——————–
And this is why they need to streamline the sales process for short sales and foreclosures. They think leaving the homes off the market keeps the prices up, when in reality this is depressing prices because empty homes really do bring down the comps (unlike normal foreclosures that are not allowed to deteriorate — those sell for **market** prices).
“With inflation caused by legislative handouts, the average $180,000 home should cost $15.8 billion by the year 2038.”
The only way this will happen is if people’s incomes become something like $6 billion/year.