The Housing Bubble

Never underestimate the curative/preventative power of a placebo! Roughly 50% effectiveness rate, in study after study after study…

So I’m guessing Airborne is roughly that effective, as long as you don’t keep trash-talking it!

I’ve read about the lawsuits, but will trust my personal experiences over the claims of those who seek to profit from their assertions.

For some people, it might not work, but for myself (and others I know), we swear by it.

LOLOL ex-nnv rides again!!!!!

I don’t care who you are, that’s funny……..

Huh?

A good red 14.5%+ alcohol red Sonoma Zin is the ultimate “manly” wine - something guys like Ahnold drink before killing the bad guys. After drinking a glass you can really feel the hair growing on your chest and are ready for mortal combat with a garlic pizza.

Or are you one of those pansy east-coast guys who only know about so-called “white Zin”, which isn’t a white wine and isn’t a real Zin? Color me confused.

‘After drinking a glass you can really feel the hair growing on your chest and are ready for mortal combat with a garlic pizza.’

I am so in love right now.

“Manly” wine???? In San Francisco, maybe.

“14.5%+ alcohol” = “killing the bad guys” ???

Pleeeeeze! If your sick you need something that’ll bore a hole in your esophagus and blast your sinuses through the roof of your head.

“I am so in love right now.”

Perfect. The two of you can curl up in a blankey and watch Dr Phil together, nibble on some cheese, and giggle like school girls every time a cute pet commercial comes on.

Heaven! Just heaven!
I’ll bring the barettes— he can wear them in his chest hair, and I will wear them on my fluffy girl head—- and the chocolate and the nail-polishes. Oh, and Dennis, do you mind being called ‘Den-Den’?

PS. How DID you know I call them ‘blankeys’, ex? You spying on me?

My Uncle David’s famous “Barn Wine” is the only wine I ever had that would grow “hair on your chest”

As my Uncle Carl endorsed it…..
“It’s not bad……he managed to get most of the leaves and twigs out of it this year…”

My Uncle David’s famous “Barn Wine” is the only wine I ever had that would grow “hair on your chest”

I’ve got some cider wine I made in the fridge (and more unfriged) that’ll put hair on your chest for shore. I can’t imagine really drinking that stuff unless I’ve already consumed everything else in the house…

Might be good for cleaning wounds. Or maybe run a bit through a small engine to get the gunk cleared out.

Hey, in Washington State they have Everclear. Now THAT will put hair on your chest (or, in the alternative, remove it!):)

‘Hey, in Washington State they have Everclear. Now THAT will put hair on your chest (or, in the alternative, remove it!):)’

I can attest to that.
What I do it, first I grow some hair on my chest using Everclear. Then I drink more, and it all springs right off with crisp little combustive pops. Then I drink some more, and it grows back, and then…

See, it’s one a them ‘cycle of life’ thingies. Amusing to watch at parties, too.

Geez, I think I’m in trouble now…..

The 14.5% figure means that the grapes are way over-ripe and will produce a wine with monstrous fruit and tannins. A good Zin is like raspberry-flavord sandpaper going down your throat. See http://www.zinfandel.org (the ZAP site) for more information.

I’m not really sure who “Dr. Phil” is - is he some Scientology wacko?

I’m more likely to watch war films, holding the appropriate firearm for accuracy sake. With Patton it’s my M1 Garand: with Enemy at the Gates it’s my M1891/30 Mosin-Nagant. I really like the Kenneth Bragnagh version of Henry V but sadly don’t own a Welsh longbow.

I wonder whether Olygal would get along with my two cute kitties?

OK, I’m going to cancel that date that I was going to arrange for Olympiagal and Chris Thornberg.

‘I’m more likely to watch war films, holding the appropriate firearm for accuracy sake. With Patton it’s my M1 Garand: with Enemy at the Gates it’s my M1891/30 Mosin-Nagant. I really like the Kenneth Bragnagh version of Henry V but sadly don’t own a Welsh longbow.’

Okay, now I’m really in love. Before, I was just pretending, for drama, but now I mean it.

When I go clamming and sleep on the beach, I always cover up with a TARP.

‘Heck, if you labeled dog turds as homeopathic, you could sell them as a cold treatment ‘

Oh, do they work? *looks interested and impressed *
I’ll make a note of it, for the sickly people I know.

I can’t speak for Zicam and I certainly wouldn’t be putting zinc up my nose, but numerous studies have shown ingesting zinc (on a full stomach) can shorten the duration of a cold by a statistically significant amount.

The studies I read required the subject to ingest way more than the recommended allowance (3-5x IIRC). Doing that on an empty stomach will cause legitimate intestinal distress.

Hm, I took a pill that was only 2x when I had the plague. Maybe that’s why it didn’t work. (Also ate citrus fruit b/c Mom would want me to.)

Hot showers and lots of capsaicin keep my airways and sinuses open…

You know this place riverbend sounds like Trinity, up in pasco county. One big new development (town?) with a huge diversity in prices. Any idea how the gangs got in there? Trinity’s prices seem to be holding fairly well, for FL.

Replies to both dave and Kirisdad:

1) dave, I really have no idea what will happen to those lots. If I had to say, they’ll probably be sold off and then individual people will build little concrete shacks like they did back in the 1970s, lot by lot. Maybe it’ll end up like the Ruskin Grower’s subdivision north of East Shell Point. I should check out one of those boarded up shells, but I’ll bet they’re being squatted in. It must be a real dart in the arse for all the folks who thought Riverbend(over) was their ticket to the good life. I have little sympathy, though.

2) Kirisdad, I seem to remember Ben posted a story on Trinity a while back. It was pretty ugly, lots of homes had gone rental and the residents who purchased were not happy with the deterioration of the community. If I recall, some were at their wits’ end.

As to how the gangs got into Riverbend, you’d have to know the area. Ruskin has a very interesting agricultural history. But, not far from Riverbend, are at least two large trailer parks with a very high percentage of poor legal and illegal immigrants, many of whom work or worked in the fields around there. Not to mention that some gang members or relatives of gang members probably worked construction at Riverbend. And I would suspect that some drug money purchased a house or two in there. It’s all speculation on my part, but all I know is, one current resident there told me about the gangs, and I’m guessing their kids told them about it.

It’s just a weird area around here. Grinding poverty alongside trashy middle and upper middle class housing. Used to be sort of sleepy, semi-rural, nice.

And for those who want to flame me about comments on gang activity in the area, don’t take my word for it. Just ask the Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Department. They’re the ones who have to deal with it all the time. And Sheriff Gee was quoted as saying that people don’t realize how close to anarchy the area is.

Its not worth it dude.

Choose your battles.

Personally, I think the new Camry’s look sharp, for a small sedan. I bought a 2003 Toyota Tacoma brand new, and sold it a few years later as I needed a larger vehicle for work. After nearly 40K miles, the thing was still as tight as a drum, and felt like brand new. I had ZERO problems. I like Toyota.

That said, Ford CEO Mulally knows what he’s doing. I think he’s turning that company around BIGTIME. He was a proven winner with Boeing, and he’s already proving himself with Ford. If anyone can earn their outrageous salary, it’s that guy.

That’s because the notion that the way to “handle” ice and snow was to get a big ol’ SUV was always a load of crap. A smaller front-wheel-drive sedan or even a old VW bug is always better than a big top-heavy 4×4.

We’re always hearing about wrecks on I-90 here where someone “lost control” or “overcorrected” or “spun out” and it’s always a Ford Exploder or Grand Cherokee or similar.

To be fair, In Montana, part of the reason you see a lot of 4 x 4’s in the ditch, or worse, in bad weather is because not only are there more of them out at that time, but the drivers have a false sense of security that 4 wheel drive means better handling, etc. in inclement weather.

The only thing it actually provides for is better takeoff power, and less of a chance of actually being stalled by a lack of traction. Other than that, there is no advantage in adverse conditions. Anyone who has ever been in a “4 wheel drive spin” understands that there is almost no way to control it once it starts.

I remember one winter when my dad and I had to dig out some young women from the great mountain of snow behind our house. It was the mound left by the plows, I guess they were lost, and the car was a, yup, Jeep Cherokee.

You see, on teevee, you could drive that thing through anything!

Funny, my dad never had to be dug out driving his used Datsun 2-door. sk1llz, y0.

“but the drivers have a false sense of security that 4 wheel drive means better handling”

Exactamundo - they think just being able to buy the rig and put gas in it means they have the bad-weather driving “handled” but they don’t.

1995 Toy 7 psgr wagon.
179k and I love this car. Right size, right power, just love it.
She is starting to leak some oil, but drives well all the same.
I wish I could find another of such quality.

desertdweller,

I have a 1982 Oldsmobile Custom Cruiser Station Wagon with the back facing rear seat. Love this car. It can seat 8 people, great to carry things when all the seats are down in the back. This baby has power. An 8 cylinder engine. Solidly built. Lots of metal between me and the driver coming at me. Love to drive. People who have ridden in it love it. No major problems. Just problems because of age, wear and tear. What is becoming a problem is parts are becoming harder to find.

“…replace the brake pads after 3 years…”

On my ‘99 Honda Accord, the front brake pads were not replaced until about 75,000 miles (6 years), and the rear brakes were never touched. Neither were the shocks/struts, CV joints, trans, cooling system, A/C. The ONLY failure was the lamp for the dashboard clock.

I sold it at just over 100K miles/8 years.

BTW, headlamps do indeed dim over time. We hit a deer in the fall of ‘05 that necessitated a new hood, bumper, and right fender, including of course the headlight assembly. The new lamp was noticeably brighter than the other one.

Our 04 Odyssey had brake pads replaced right around 75,000 miles, too. It has 86,000 miles now and only problem is the bulb for the clock is burned out. Wonder if they’re going to fix the clock light problem, LOL.

Had to chime in when I saw the similarity. Tickled my funny bone.

But the brake pads were the only “major thing” other than oil changes that I ever had done on the Taurus. It might have been premature, but after 9 years of ownership, I can’t complain too much about that. On the other hand, if I had owned it for 9 years without even having to do that I guess it would have been all the better, so maybe you guys have a point.

I have replaced the clock lamp on my 2001 accord twice now. Evay, 10 for $5.00, 12 volt “RR modeler’s” lamps.

Engine idler valve replaced under warranty first year, belt buckle SRS sending unit replaced under warranty, no other problems.

Every time I think about getting a new car I say to myself–why? 120k miles and everything still works great

(Using one quart of oil between oil changes, 4 cyl VTEC)

I really don’t understand all the bragging about brake pad wear. Changing pads is about a 10 minute job, if you’re slow.

The stock clutch in my old 340/4-speed Duster lasted 95,000 miles……..now THAT’S something to brag about……:)

(Of course, I won’t mention the double-hernia that me and one of my buddies got pulling the tranny out, when it finally DID wear out…….:)…..)

Bragging about how long your brake pads lasted is pointless as an aspect of reliability of one particular brand, because no car company on the planet builds their own brake discs, pads or calipers. Nearly all drivers would vastly improve fuel consumption and brake pad wear if they drive conservatively and coast when they see a red light ahead (newer cars even have a mode called Deceleration Fuel Cutoff which delivers zero fuel when in gear above idle RPM with throttle command at zero).

Putting the gear shift on the floor is cheaper than the steering column.

For most cars and trucks with a column-mounted shifter, the benefit is that you get a middle spot (with a seatbelt), for a 6th person. I wouldn’t want to drive cross country that way, but it does come in handy sometimes.

Or you can put more cup holders there!!!

Hetro men don’t sit comfortably three across with a floor mounted shift.

Chrysler put the shift for their automatics on the dash back in the 1950’s - a series of pushbuttons like an old car radio. I’m sure that was the cheapest solution of all. For some reason it never caught on.

Lol, just like a bus with automatic.

We also press a button to start…

My 62 Corvair had a little shift lever on the dash. Cuter ‘n hell it was.

I know a coupla bad trannys….

I have seen those Trannys around the desert. Some coworkers too!

No, they don’t do the gear shift on the steering column anymore.

The Detroit auto show just started, so there have been a bunch of new models announced, with photos.

The 2010 Prius was introduced. Lexus gets a version of it, called the HS250h. Honda is bringing the Insight back, which looks almost exactly like a Prius now. I was surprised by the 2010 Buick LaCrosse. Looks great in photos. And of course, the Taurus as well. The interior looks pretty nice to me.

There’s a collection of photos that gets updated each time a manufacturer brings out something new:

http://www.motivemagazine.com/gallery/gallery.html?c=show_album;p=Events/Industry%20Shows/Detroit

the new Insight isn’t really an Insight… I guess Honda doesn’t like to pay a lot for marketing research, so they just went for broke and recycled it.

Hopefully people will remember the green vibe and not the “Look, it’s a tiny mad h00nage machine only a CRX junky could love, yet no CRX junky will buy it.”

(As one CRX junky said to me, “What’s the point if it isn’t an electric car? I want to remove a power system, not add another one on!”)

If you really want uniform culture, language and law you should move to China.

China may appear that way from the outside, but it’s quite a polyglot society — they have dozens of dialects and ethnic minorities. Their top-down authoritarianism probably obscures a lot of that diversity, but it’s there.

“If you really want uniform culture, language and law you should move to China.”

Well, China is pretty powerful. Got us by the short and curlies right now. And China has its society ordered on goals and communication. However, it depends on what those goals are, no? China has a system that is working well for what they want to do. I’m not saying it is right, however. I wouldn’t like it.

Um, not everyone in China even speaks the same language, much less has the same religion.

You must be thinking of Japan.

Not true of Japan, either.

Now, Iceland–THAT’s a shallow gene pool!

However:

- That higher percentage was not due so much to high debt (though WWII debt was high), but moreso due to very low GDP, since we were transitioning from wartime to peacetime economy.

- We had a much more vast capacity to pay off that debt than we do now, for many reasons. None the least of which is that we had an economic boom in the 50’s; whereas now we are in the early stages of massive contraction. Thus the debt curve of WWII topped off quickly - right now we’re very much on an up curve, including in the rate of debt growth.

The US had a boom because there was little left of Europe, and not much in Japan. And the world population was half what it is now.

Actually, we worked ourselves out from out from under that debt by robbing the world blind under the Bretton Woods system. People blame Nixon for abandoning the gold standard but we had actually gone off of it years before. The dollar was supposed to be the anchor currency under the system but we ran the printing presses non-stop behind closed doors. The dollar has again become the world’s de facto reserve currency and history is about to be repeated.

oxide and John - both good points also. John - can you be more specific though what you mean w/respect to Bretton Woods? Are you inferring that Bretton Woods brought about inflation in the U.S.? (not disagreeing, just trying to educate myself)

Unfortunately, we may well repeat both scenarios before all is said and one. For the world’s sake and the U.S.’s sake I hope not.

Inflation is what led to the demise of the system but the rules of the system encouraged the inflation. The dollar was the anchor currency under Bretton-Woods and all of the participating nations agreed that the dollar could be used in place of gold to settle balance of payment accounts. It was the US’s responsibility to maintain a stable dollar that could always be converted to gold. Instead, in the 1950’s the US’s balance of payments swung negative and we just printed more dollars to fund the deficits. By 1958 the dollar had already lost its gold peg but it wasn’t officially announced until late 1971. For many years the US thrived on handing out over-valued dollars. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it. We aren’t the only nation that doesn’t learn from history.

Bretton Woods just made inflation a very attractive option for the US. Essentially, the world governments agreed to make the US dollar equivalent gold for other central banks (meaning they had to have dollars or gold to buy things from other nations). Then when the US needed to fund guns and butter spending in the 60s, they could just quietly ran the printing presses and swapped newly printed dollars for more foreign goods and services. Essentially other nations, traded real goods for dollars while the US was printing them as well as selling goods. It took a very long time for the other nations to catch on and decide it was worth ending (because while the US was capturing much of the value, they benefitted from additional trade under a stable currency system, too).

Thanks for the explanations.

If you guys really believe in hyperinflation, you should invest in wheel burrows to hold peoples money when they go grocery shopping.

Wheel burrows, the next bubble!

I think you mean “wheel barrows”

Burrows is what we’ll be doing when the nukes come.

I think you mean “wheel barrows”

Wheel Burroughs are what you cart your Naked Lunch around in.

“Green” technologies……the next bubble.

Too many ways to over-promise and under deliver.

Too much pressure from society to “invest”, no matter what the cost. If it looks like a waste of money on paper, you can always brag about the intangible benefits.

Too much fuzzy math in the “carbon credits/trading” market. Math that nobody really understands, with debits and credits assigned arbitrarily by another fuzzy government entity with no accountability.

Expect to see the former investment banks/bankers migrate to this market, as their skill set is perfect for taking advantage of the opportunities to skim money from the process. God forbid that some of them actually work for a living. Work is for suckers.

I think Brazilian steakhouses are the next bubble. Prior to a few weeks ago, I’d never heard of them. Recently, it seems everyone is hip on the unlimited beef experience.

Here in South Florida we have more Brazilian steakhouses than McDonalds. Two rules for anyone visiting one for the first time. 1. Don’t go to one more than 5 minutes from your house, and 2. Don’t go on a first date. I still can’t believe my wife married me after what I did to her bathroom after I took her to a Brazilian steakhouse on one of our first dates.

One of my friends would joke that he couldn’t afford to go to the Brazilian steakhouse that was fifteen minutes from his house. It was $60 for two meals and drinks, and $40 for a new pair of pants.

Korean bbq is hot, brazilian bbq has been around awhile. BTW, a place called Bann in Manhattan, 50th and 8th (?) very good and not expensive.

OK, now, John, that’s just toooooo funeeeeeeeee! I mean, I nearly killed myself laughing after I read that. I’ve never been to a Brazilian steakhouse, but I sure got the idea. I did go to a regular Brazilian restaurant in NYC once years ago with a friend who wanted to “broaden my horizons”. On their recommendation, I had something called “fejoada” (not sure of the spelling) BLECH! I’m sure there’s other Brazilian food that I might like, but after that experience, in which I had the impression that I was eating felt, I just couldn’t bring myself to go to a Brazilian restaurant.

‘I think you mean “wheel barrows”

Wheel Burroughs are what you cart your Naked Lunch around in.’

Hahahahaha! Nice, lavi!

Brazilian “F” dish is a combination of rice and beans (supposed to be very tasty according to my former Brazilian students), Sounds bland to me - I prefer Korean food - : )

Embedded in my post.

Not sure. Probably not. Most of them came out when we were raising little ones with very little money left for things we didn’t need.

Everything depends on people buying things.

Good post, jay.

Only been in a PB a couple of times..always thought their stuff was way overpriced with little to no style whatsoever…no great loss..

my thoughts exactly, reading this thread…

everything depends on relentless, yet unsustainable, “growth”

even if this “growth” is actually waste

many societies have lived peacefully and sustainably… only problem, people have to work to survive and no fun tech like computers…

maybe there is a way to have both?

(automation, productivity, essentially human ingenuity, should allow some portion of the population to remain idle–let’s start with school age children, I think we can all agree it’s preferable to have them in school than in the soccer ball factory…)

I don’t understand how some “bleeding heart” types can be simultaneously pro runaway illegal immigration and pro sustainability/low impact/super green lifestyles. (Maybe what I don’t understand is supposed to be just for the rich and trendy only?)

I would LIKE to live in an (relative to recently) underpopulated country with great vistas, clean water, small class sizes and good health care where more of us can work jobs that improve culture, technology and comfort rather than spending 30 hours each week selling houses and useless trinkets to each other.

Yet those in power absolutely have to have this continual “growth” to sustain the Ponzi Scheme*… or they’ll spend enough trillions to pretend for awhile it is still there.

* I’m so tired of this term. Don’t we understand what we are doing yet?

that seems bogus to me; our factory stock is out of date. also, much of it has been destroyed or put out of service.

we have spent nothing on capital investment in the private sector for years, while Taiwan and Korea built brand-new modern factories than put our creaky ancient factories out of business. that’s stupid.

but that’s klepto-capitalism at its best. the b-school mentality over the proud private owner. hurrah for big business… planned obsolescence isn’t just for goods any more… now it’s for entire economies.

bluto,

Outside of government spending (which doesn’t claim to need direct and immediate profit), even capital expenditures require someone to buy the finished goods to provide a profit for the companies that are expanding/improving their productive capacity, no?

IOW, an economy needs consumption growth in order for it to “grow”. Personally, I favor the low/no-growth economy, which does NOT mean you can’t make improvements and innovative changes. As one thing becomes obsolete, the capital can flow to something new.

The problem, as I see it, is that we are expected to “grow profits” for everybody, and that simply isn’t possible without inflation, is it?

While I hate the closed MLS, I’m not sure that I want the gov’t to step in and open it up. It is a free market. Other people are free to start MLS databases. You can sell your house on eBay if you want….

Too funny.

They had a short piece in the news the other night about the difficulties that the hospitality workers will have. An old friend from college has a guest house (urban B&Bish place) next to the convention center was on worrying that his guests might have problems getting past the security quardon.

Metro won’t be shut down at all, but the general wisdom is that it will be so crowded once the trains are in the District that the platforms may back up all the way up the stairs (they are considering shutting off the down escalators for this reason) and out the doors. Busses are supposed to be the better choice. I say watch it on TV. Most people are just going to be fighting for space near a jumbotron on the Mall anyway.

I saw that happen during Cherry Blossom a few years ago.

That was his baby name in DC. When they had the press conference annoucing the birth the zoo person said he weighed about 4 ounces, about the size of a stick of butter. Almost instantly, people were calling him Butterstick. The zoo had a heck of a time with the official naming. They had a few choices so people could vote. But lots of people wanted to write in Butterstick, and the zoo had to explain why he had to have a Chinese name.

Naked mole rats don’t DO outside.

Not unless they’re Giant, irradiated and live in the Capital Wasteland.
But the meat’s good with a little Wonderglue.

(Sorry, been playing a leeedle bit too much ‘Fallout 3′ recently )

Sadly, the inauguration is at 9am on the west coast.
The husband and I will attend, via TV, and then go to work.

I was in the Museum of American History the other day and said to my companion “It feels strange to be here without a combat shotgun.”

LOL - I hear you. I have still have fleeting impulses to check in public garbage cans and drink out of toilets…

If you don’t qualify for a Roth, you also don’t qualify for a *deductible* traditional IRA contribution. What I do is make a NON-deductible contribution to my traditional IRA in years that I don’t qualify for the Roth.

Starting in 2010, you will be able to convert your traditional IRA to a Roth regardless of your income level. This basically gets around your current problem. Say you contribute $5000 this year to your traditional IRA. Let’s say it grows to $6000 by 2010. That year you can convert the traditional IRA to a Roth (or convert and move the funds to your existing Roth), paying tax only on the $1000 gain since you already paid tax on the $5000 contribution.

You end up with just the Roth IRA that’s $6000 bigger (and completely tax-free, of course).

2010 also brings a law change that will allow you to convert your existing 401k directly into a Roth (assuming you are no longer with the employer who gave you the 401k) without having to rollover into a traditional IRA first. Again, you will pay taxes (on the entire amount converted in this case), and there will be no income limits.

I expect to see a surge of conversion activity - and a significant spike in tax revenue for the govt - in 2010, which of course comes at the expense of reduced tax revenue later. Hopefully the Obama administration is anticipating this windfall and can plan for the best utilization of the funds, knowing that the future income tax stream will be diminished.

In 1998 I realized that the key to financial freedom was getting as much money as possible into a Roth as soon as possible. I have contributed diligently every year to either a Roth or traditional IRA as explained above. My Roth contributions since 1998 total 22k or so, and my traditional IRA has had 8k in contributions.

In May 2007, soon after I started reading this blog, I got etrade to enable my Roth for options trading (level 2) and started playing around. My account was around 24k at the time. Within a month it had dropped to around 10k due to put options I bought on Countrywide and Bank of America going down in value rapidly (I was waaay too early). I exited all my positions in disgust, took a deep breath, and dove right back into buying puts on other homebuilders and banks. Finished the year in the 40k range. Continued a similar strategy in 2008 and had a wild ride, going as high as 97k (mid-year when oil hit its record high) and as low as 30k before ending the year at 85k. I’m currently at 95k with a personal goal of getting to 200k by the end of this year.

I did similar things with my wife’s Roth, with less risk-taking, and she has grown her 20k into 55k as of today.

2010 will be a banner year for us as we hope to consolidate my 401k as well as both our traditional IRAs into our respective Roths. All the money we are saving right now is not towards a down payment on a house (we prefer to let the house prices come towards us in lieu of extra down payment ;)) but towards the big tax payment we’ll have to make in 2010.

When the dust settles we hope to emerge with a combined Roth value of at least 500k (and hopefully significantly more if I achieve my investment/speculation goals) by the end of 2010. Barring hyperinflation this should be enough for our retirement (I’m 41) without any further contributions. We would then have to start from square one for the house and kids’ college.

We feel strongly that of the big 3 financial goals, retirement should be the #1 priority because you can always rent, and your kids will always have some opportunity to do something (keeping them well-rounded, healthy and strong is more important). Besides, if one does the parenting job right the kids are likely to surpass their parents in terms of societal output and the best gift we can really give them beyond that is to relieve them of the burden of having to worry about their parents’ finances and healthcare costs in old age.

My biggest fear is that the govt will one day, in desperation, decide to tax gains in Roth IRAs. If that happens we will leave this country for good. We’ll probably be charged for that, too!

Lesser Fool, thanks for the Roth primer! I’m going to forward it to DH now so that we can discuss it together.

LOL! I forgot about that.

But really, if you don’t need to be close to a job and you can really go anywhere, my advice is the foothills of the Appalachians. Cities big enough but not too big, you’ll have seasons but not much snow, and plenty of water.

unfortunately, we need to be near a major airport and possibly where my husbands company is located. that doesn’t leave much. Dallas, Houston,multiple florida cities, Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago(BRRRR), multiple california cities. He may be able to work from home, but major airport with easy transportation to San Francisco and LA is a must.

How about ATL..some real nice communities here and if you need to rent, lots to choose from..

Mortgage broker! figures. That’s why I’m ready to leave. Everyone is either a mortgage broker, realtor, builder or other related industry they sucked the system for all it’s worth during the boom and now they are sucking it dry on the way down! I will smack the next idiot that tells me it’s the best time to buy a house!

Same here, dude. I feel like life is a needlessly difficult struggle thanks to the general gap between incomes (including my own) and housing prices.

We are all, by any practical defintion of the words, foolproof and incapable of error.

“Open the debt-bay doors, Hal”

The problem is the jumbo price, not the jumbo house. 3 bedrooms is small for 6 people. I hope they all get along.

Sorry Jim, I was referring to Hwy’s extreme hatred for cheney/haliburton/Bush. I agree w/ your comment re: the lack of connection. Sometimes my reponse to that hatred makes for a bad connection.

CrackerJim, Kirisdad was referring to Hwy50ina49Dodge post not yours.

The guy who “pays his taxes” and has beaucoup d’argent stuffed away in Switzerland didn’t pay his taxes at all.

Gee, I wish all the people who bragged to me about what financial geniuses they were by breaking the law like this would get reamed by the IRS. I want the gubmint to at least reward those of us who weren’t as creative with our year-end accounting with a ‘Thank You’ note and a ‘Get Out of Jail Free’ card.

Then turn in the people that brag to you. It’s pretty easy.

IIRC, the IRS will give you a cut.

Damn straight FlapJack!!! I’m happy to announce that I spent $15.3 million of taxpayer dough for 2008. And wanna know the best part? I will spend double that in the first 6 months of 2009.

2009 is gonna be a great year!;)

the = that

too bad it won’t help for Americans, as they can always be taxed by the US government even if they leave the country

Yeah yeah. I believe you not only have to obtain citizenship in another country, but you also have to denounce your U.S. citizenship!

Not really willing to go that far, myself.

Personally I can’t blame people for wanting to avoid taxes. The ones who I fault aren’t so much the people who avoid taxes, since they’re pretty darn oppressive (no I’m not a tax evader), but rather the people who set up the game to allow themselves to avoid taxes while simultaneously influencing government to increase taxes on everyone else (either explicit taxes or implicit taxes in the form of inflation).

Not true! If the IRS decides you changed your citizenship primarily as a tax dodge, they will continue to charge you taxes for 10 years anyway.

What does cashing checks have to do with it? Seriously, I have no idea. You can’t avoid tax on income by not cashing checks.

Polly, I salute your acumen, but as I understand it the check is like the hot potato. If you cash it, it leaves an audit trail that leads to you, unless you set up a sufficiently elaborate scramble of pass through shell accounts. The algorithms for discriminating passthrough schemes are getting better every day.

So I think, unless you have set it up ahead of time to be a signatory in a holding company of holding companies whose records are obscured within ever unfolding layers of organizational construct, the act of depositing the check will lead to you.

Just so you know, you can claim Social Security under your own social security number or your spouses, but not both.

How much money do you need? The first 10 million is tax free.

Opps the part about adoption being the solution didn’t make it into the post.

Reuven - I agree you’re screwed but you do keep putting out a lot of tax misinformation. Regarding HELOC’s, one can pull out of to $100,000 and use it for anything while still getting the interest deduction. It is only when you pull out more than $100,000 and don’t use it to improve the home and still take the mortgage deduction that you out of tax compliance. (And they are greatly upping the audits on tax payers with overly high interest deductions.)

Pulling money out of a rental runs into the same restriction. You can pull money out of a primary home, second home or rental property to purchase other property but that deduction would go on the Schedule E (rental income) not Schedule A (itemized deductions.)

As for the tax on your partner’s 401(k). It doesn’t matter if you are a spouse, child or partner you will have to pay INCOME taxes on the inherited 401(k) when you pull the money out. Period. A spouse can roll the money over to their own IRA so often they don’t have to worry about mandatory minimum distributions quite as soon, and you cannot. You will have to either pull it out in five years or do a lifetime plan (don’t quote this on me for partners, it may just be children.) But you will probably have to pull the money out sooner than a spouse, especially if you are young and lose your partner (i.e. car accident) at a young age.

Besides not being able to roll an inherited IRA/401(k) over to your own IRA and thus putting off mandatory minimum distributions, where you are screwed is not getting the unlimited marital deduction where a spouse can inherit 100% of their deceased spouse’s estate with no estate taxes due. I.e. Melinda Gates can inherit 20 billion with no tax due. Currently this is not true for gay partners and is one reason why gay marriage is such a necessary institution.

But, also keep in mind that the estate tax deduction is currently 3.5 million dollars. So unless your partner is very well off you will probably not hit any estate taxes, only the income tax on pulling out money in an IRA/401(k) that has never been taxed before. (Roth is another story.)

Hope this helps.

Who told you life would be fair, Reuven? Seriously, most of us got over that sometime around 12, or at least 21.

Tax law is what it is. Don’t like it? Change it. But don’t claim that other people getting out of paying taxes on a type of income you don’t have is a civil rights issue.

By the way, my uncle and his partner in Vermont are making out like bandits on their federal taxes because they can’t get married - they both get to file as head of household (one adult is head of household with one kid and the other is head of household with two kids). Their state tax situation where they file as domestic partners is much less beneficial. That is why there was all that hoopla about the marriage penalty a few years ago.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-12299.htm

“As mentioned on the above chart, the deleveraging within the U.S. stock market has been very severe since the peak in July 2007 - especially for the two-month period ending November 2008. Since its peak in July 2007, the amount of margin debt outstanding has declined by 45% - all in just 16 months! During the March 2000 to September 2002 deleveraging phase (the stock market bottomed on October 9, 2002), total margin debt outstanding declined by 55%. That deleveraging phase, however, took a “whooping” 30 months. There is no modern precedent for this. For example, even during the bear markets in the late 1960s and early 1970s, margin outstanding never declined so quickly, as can be seen in the following weekly chart”

Not sure I follow. As of Q3, there was almost $100 billion more consumer debt than end of D4 2007. We added $110 billion Q1, added $20 billion Q2, and subtracted $30 billion Q3.

Are you saing we’ll be down $600 billion in Q4 to net out at -$500 billion for the year?

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1.pdf

I’m looking at the top of F.218, which shows net borrowing against mortgages as:

Q1: 270.3
Q2: -65.2
Q3: -327.5

Thus we have -112.4 thru Q3 - if Q4 continues the downward trend, even just -400, then we’re looking at over $500B unwind in 2008. More likely it’ll be $700-800B I think, since Q4 was when the SHTF.

Other consumer debt (F.222) is a factor, but very small compared with mortgage debt. Nonetheless the rate of consumer debt growth is also shrinking rapidly and will be negative very likely in Q4. If you look at the history though, there wasn’t a consumer debt bubble like there was with mortgages, so the vast majority of the wall street derivatives bubble was mortgage-based, not consumer-debt-based.

Okay, pacman, I think we’re splitting hairs here.

Yes, we’re negative $112 billion mortgage debt. But we’re up $200+ billion non-mortgage debt.

I’m looking at total, you’re focused on mortgage.

In either case, both trends are highly negative. Defaults exceed new lending. Pop goes the credit bubble.

While you are focusing on residential mortgage, don’t lose site of the non-mortgage business debt. Lots of bonds and business loans out there ready to POP and POP hard.

We all understand the difference between notional and netted. That’s why I said “notional” in my statement in the first place.

But if you think that “net” is not 5% of notional of which at least 20% will not default (= 1% of notional), I have a bridge here in Manhattan I want to sell to you.

Note the crickets chirping on your query Darrell.

You’re just playing the “yield curve steepener” (= bleeding money while you are waiting for it to steepen.)

In such horrendously negative-theta trades, timing is everything even more than normal.

Many of the Tiger cubs used to love this trade. Wonder if that’s still true.

I posted a response but it disappeared. Dammit!!!

This is just your classic “yield-steepener trade” (= bleeding money while you wait for it to steepen.) For such horrendously negative-theta trades, timing is everything even more than normal.

Back in the day, the Tiger cubs used to love this trade. Wonder if it’s still true.

Hoz did answer the question “where”?

For investors it is a non issue unless what you are really saying is that you are concerned about the risk that the USGOV will default or that your brokerage (+SIPC) will.

If you consider either of those a significant risk then you should park your funds in MM or FDIC insured accounts, you don’t have the heart of an investor.

But you have to have the money in “something”. If it is in cash, and interest rates do go up because of inflation, then you are losing to inflation while making money on rising interest rates.

Put it in a money market, again, if you win in the treasuries, it is probably because you are losing on the inflation vs. money market return front.

And, in this environment, no, I’m not an invester. I’m a saver. Unfortunatly, FDIC CD is not an option on the 401(k) which is why I’m in “government insured”. It used to just be treasuries, but now are picking up GSE bonds.

Yield-steepener people generally pay the short 10-year, long 2-year trade.