January 14, 2009

The Bubble Was Bound To Break

WCSH 6 reports from Maine. “2008 was a difficult year for real estate on many fronts. But 2009 is a new year, with new opportunities and challenges — both for those looking to buy and sell. In Maine the number of housing units sold fell 21% from 2007 to 2008…. and those that did sell, sold for 9% less. Sue Spann, the owner of Remax Riverside, said, ‘I believe it is a correction but there are a lot of different components, a lot of different layers to this correction. There is a correction in prices, there is a correction in the stock market, the whole economic correction we’re experiencing right now and I think to a certain level there is a mindset correction as well, a whole lifestyle correction.’”

The Union Leader from New Hampshire. “Friday was motions day in Judge J. Michael Deasy’s courtroom, and the docket was full. The federal judge would work through 31 cases — before lunch. Welcome to bankruptcy court, after the mortgage meltdown.”

“In the end, there’s no good answer when folks don’t earn enough to meet their monthly expenses, the judge said. Chapter 13 bankruptcy, he said, ‘will help you keep your house if the reason you got behind is something that’s now been resolved. But if the problem is your mortgage went up to more than you can afford, (Chapter) 13 can’t solve that for you.’”

“A Derry carpenter fell behind on his payments after he was laid off; his adjustable-rate mortgage payments ballooned to $3,200 a month. ‘The government bailed out the bankers, they bailed out the car companies; who’s bailing me out?’ he wonders aloud. ‘Nobody.’”

“A Manchester woman who owns a courier business got into debt after her gas expenses spiked to $1,500 a week last summer, just as many customers started falling behind on their payments. She’s hoping to save her home through Chapter 7. At 61, the Manchester courier business owner said she should have some sort of nest egg set aside for retirement. Instead, she faces personal bankruptcy.”

“‘It’s one of the hardest decisions I ever had to make,’ she said. ‘I feel like a failure.’”

“It’s no secret that home sales are down. Several Concord developments that have gone up in recent months have empty lots waiting for buildings. Others have houses ready to be occupied. ‘This is going to turn around,’ said Yves Tanguay, who built Abbott Village on North State Street. ‘We just have to wait it out. I don’t think there’s any choices out there. Everyone’s in the same boat. We’re all trying to survive.’”

“His plan is to build 80 luxury condominiums. Prices range from $350,000 to $500,000. Originally, the project was restricted to residents 55 and older. It featured three-story condominiums with features such as elevators, fireplaces, a community center with a tennis court and putting green, a wireless entrance gate, and options for granite countertops and hardwood flooring.”

“Tanguay received certificates of occupancy for his first buildings in February 2007. He sold the first home a year later. So far, Tanguay has built 18 units, but just four are occupied. After the slow start, Tanguay removed the age restriction. Three of the four occupants are under 55. For a time, he tried dropping the price to $299,000 and reducing the square footage from 2,100 square feet to 1,500 square feet, with single-story living. ‘We didn’t get any calls,’ he said.”

The Register Citizen from Connecticut. “The President of a local building company recently lobbied in Washington on behalf of an economic stimulus package that would hopefully stabilize the housing market. Less than 24 hours after members of the 111th Congress were sworn into office, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) launched an all-out effort to make housing a centerpiece of the massive economic stimulus package that lawmakers are expected to complete by mid-February.”

“‘Once prices are stabilized we hope to entice new buyers into the market with some tax credit and interest rate buy downs,’ said Greg Ugalde, President and Chief Legal Officer for Torrington-based T&M Building and state representative for NAHB for the past 20 years.”

“Ugalde said stabilizing the housing market with help the overall economy. ‘When you know your home is maintaining its value or increasing in value,’ Ugalde said, you’re much more apt to go out and spend money on other purchases. People don’t realize the power the home building industry has on the economy.’”

The Boston Herald from Massachusetts. “Judge Christine McEvoy sentenced Nicole Lyder to two years in prison and three years’ probation after the woman pleaded guilty to 21 counts of larceny and other charges related to mortgage scams. Interviews and a review of records indicate that Lyder is apparently the first person jailed in Massachusetts over the subprime-mortgage fiasco.”

“Lyder admitted in court to inflating consumers’ finances on subprime-mortgage applications in 2005 and 2006 to get clients’ loans approved. Although state officials have issued fines, lawsuits and license revokations against alleged loan scammers, Massachusetts criminal law doesn’t specifically cover mortgage schemes.”

“‘We don’t have a criminal mortgage-fraud statute in Massachusetts, so we have to find other laws that we can apply to (subprime-loan scams),’ said Emily LaGrassa, spokeswoman for state Attorney General Martha Coakley.”

The Framingham Tab from Massachusetts. “There is a lot of misinformation surrounding the origins and consequences of the current financial crisis, warns Tab Finchum, a financial adviser with Edward Jones. During the positive economic times of the 1990s, real estate sales went through the roof. ‘Another thing that happened in this time frame, and a lot of people are making this one of the evil culprits of our situation, but it was a good idea, is that the government said that home ownership is a good idea…’ he said. ‘Home ownership was one of the biggest links to get people off of welfare and to get their kids to become good members of society.’”

“Finchum said that because of this program, even with its good intentions, people were helped in getting homes for which they had no way to pay. That worked well for a while.”

“Investors were getting a good deal, Finchum said, because they were investing in something that tended to be very secure, and they could make a lot of money with relatively little risk. Wall Street was making money, as well.”

“Finchum said real estate prices continued to rise. Houses that, a few years before, weren’t worth more than $100,000, were going for two or three times that much.”

“‘We had this perfect storm of factors. We had the Wall Street breed jumping in there, and these guys were coming in because there was a lot of money in this business. You had the mortgage brokers in there, who now were unregulated, and those guys pretty much would tell you whatever they want to tell you. Once that loan is approved, there was little to no recourse,’ he said.”

“Finchum said that people weren’t able to keep up with the mortgages that they received for houses that were too expensive. And it was only a short matter of time, as he said, that ‘the bubble was bound to break.’”

The Press & Sun Bulletin from New York. “The region could see an influx of income and jobs by welcoming new housing construction, economist Elliot Eisenberg said Tuesday at the Greater Binghamton Chamber of Commerce’s annual Economic Forecast Breakfast. Eisenberg, senior economist of the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C., spoke of the local economy and how it relates to the national economy.”

“The area missed the building boom, the astronomical increases in property values and the eventual bust of the housing market, he said. In addition, the area has local banks that were not involved in exotic mortgages.”

“Greater Binghamton is in prime shape to grow by ramping up new home construction, Eisenberg said. The average price of a house constructed in Tioga and Broome counties is $400,000, he said. By comparison, the average median price of existing homes is around $110,000. The homes being constructed are largely for those new to the area who have high incomes and occupations such as engineer, lawyer and doctor, he said.”

“‘This is bizarre,’ Eisenberg said. ‘I have never, ever seen it.’”

The Pittsburg Business Times from Pennsylvania. “Pittsburgh’s housing market, often assumed to be shielded from national ups and downs, has begun to show signs of strain amid the downturn. The most sluggish national housing market in decades has helped push down the number of high-end home sales in Allegheny County, according to a Business Times analysis of all residential transactions of $200,000 or more through November.”

“While the number of homes sold in this category peaked in 2007, sales have fallen since then — in some cases dramatically. ‘I would say this fall was probably one of the worst markets I have experienced,’ said Cuppy Kraft, an agent who has sold real estate in the region since 1971. ‘I think everyone would agree that we have seen a slowdown, even in Pittsburgh.’”

“While residential projects in the city have fared better, even there sales have come slowly, said Roslyn Neiman, an agent with O’Hara-based Howard Hanna Real Estate Services Inc. Neiman is working to sell the last 10 units at the The Metropolitan, a luxury condominium project in Shadyside that started selling units a year and a half ago.”

“‘I think they would have been sold out, had the economy not slowed down,’ Neiman said of The Metropolitan, where prices range from $600,000 to $1.2 million for the remaining units. ‘I do have a lot of people looking and dancing around. I don’t know what they are waiting for.’”




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92 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2009-01-14 06:47:53

‘Interviews and a review of records indicate that Lyder is apparently the first person jailed in Massachusetts over the subprime-mortgage fiasco.’

Wow, swift and stunning justice there Massachsuetts. How did the Boston Globe handle the story?

‘Lyder…practices were the subject of a front-page Globe story last year, worked with low-income clients in Dorchester, Randolph, and Taunton. They later realized they could not afford their monthly payments and eventually had foreclosure cases brought against them.’

‘Lyder’s case was one of several criminal actions involving mortgage fraud that Attorney General Martha Coakley’s office brought last year.’

‘Mortgage fraud is considered one of the main reasons for the surge in foreclosures nationwide - as well as for the inflated real estate prices that preceded the housing market collapse.’

Hmm, I don’t see a mention that there has only been ONE conviction in the state. And here’s something else for the Globe: the press’ shameless boosterism and turning a blind eye to the housing bubble were two of the big reasons we’re in this mess.

Comment by taxmeupthebooty
2009-01-14 07:31:25

sounds like resko

seems to take years to capture financial criminals
Bush jailed Clinton’s and Bama will have to jail the current crop

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-01-14 08:45:27

Ben,

That seems to be the typical M.O. (1) High Profile Prosecution per State.

There! Done & Done!

Comment by mikey
2009-01-14 17:19:36

A correction in housing

A correction in the stock market

A correction in mindset

A correction in lifestyle

Sheesh…that Remax agent, Sue Spamm, is on a total roll. She has more correction moves today than Wile E Coyote…doing a backflip off his favorite cliff :)

 
 
Comment by HARM
2009-01-14 17:36:27

And here’s something else for the Globe: the press’ shameless boosterism and turning a blind eye to the housing bubble were two of the big reasons we’re in this mess.

I’m not giving a free pass to the bought-and-sold corporate media –they deserve every heaping pile of criticism Ben serves up. Nonetheless, I consider the press to be little more than lapdogs of government and Wall Street on this.

The so called “regulators” who should have been screaming “bubble!” and slamming on the policy brakes at the highest levels (raising the FF rate, revoking tax breaks for flippers, requiring full-documentation on loans sold to the GSEs, not publicly plugging NINJAs etc.) utterly betrayed the the public trust and violated their sworn oaths. Any politician that actively shilled for the REIC in exchange for campaign contributions or perks should be prosecuted, thrown out of office, or –better yet– both.

Re the press: 1. Follow the (ad) money. 2. Never trust anyone’s advice who has a financial interest in your decision.

Comment by doug r
2009-01-14 23:38:19

If the price of houses was included in the inflation calculations, then interest rates would have gone up and cooled off the housing market a little. Phil Gramm and his buds needed something to absorb the money from the stock bubble, they hoped the real estate bubble would last until the next administration.
Nixon/Ford did it to Carter and it looks like W is leaving quite a few steaming turds for Obama.

 
Comment by CA renter
2009-01-15 01:36:16

Amen, HARM!!!

 
 
 
Comment by Nhilar
2009-01-14 07:01:48

“The area missed the building boom, the astronomical increases in property values and the eventual bust of the housing market, he said. In addition, the area has local banks that were not involved in exotic mortgages.”
“Greater Binghamton is in prime shape to grow by ramping up new home construction, Eisenberg said. The average price of a house constructed in Tioga and Broome counties is $400,000, he said. By comparison, the average median price of existing homes is around $110,000. The homes being constructed are largely for those new to the area who have high incomes and occupations such as engineer, lawyer and doctor, he said.”

Binghamton New York? Near Owego……….LOL………I used to travel there for business about once every six weeks for 3 years. The place is SUPPER depressed, no economy, everyone is super poor, there are some nice high tech jobs, however, they pay ‘local pay’, so that means the people are basically trapped there, and there are not many positions for the size of the population, there are probably more open positions for prostitute than engineer. It is a very pretty area, I have been there in every season, and the river is beautiful the old Victorian homes on the main street in Owego are nice, but the area has been slowly dying for 30 years. I imagine to live there is a soul crushing hell hole, but it does have my favorite airport in the world…

-Nhilar

Comment by exeter
2009-01-14 10:55:43

Binghamton and Otsego County

“The area missed the building boom, the astronomical increases in property values and the eventual bust of the housing market, he said.”

This is one of the most outlandish lies I’ve heard since Lereah was flapping his jaws.

Otsego and surrounding county prices doubled at minimum during bubble years. Folks, that area is destitute. Many are living in poverty there and the only hope has in fact been inflated RE. I work with a crowd out of this area. They travel downstate work and return to Otsego on weekends and they’re still convinced that the inflated prices are real and every last one of them is convinced that they can offload their shack onto a millionare but a millionare to them can be a guy with $20k in his pocket. It’s understandable that they believe in the RE lie as saw during bubble years was folks with some $$$ roll into town and build or buy new shacks. They can’t understand nor will they accept that is over.

Comment by DinOR
2009-01-14 11:35:07

exeter,

Not to in any way diminish the impact of your observations but couldn’t the same be said of the balance of the country? I mean you don’t have to go to the extreme of thinking someone that can swing a 20k down is a “heavy hitter” to have hinged your hopes on the real estate boom.

The descriptions really hit home for me as they sound like much of Oregon. I can show you single-wide mobiles on minimal far-flung acreage for 500k+ all day off of Craigslist. Depressing, I know. Like Bantering Bear once said, for people with otherwise dim prospects, their wishing price ( and the imaginary windfall ) is all they have to keep them going.

Comment by exeter
2009-01-14 13:28:30

DinOr,

I don’t pretend to know too much about Oregon but it is my impression that OR has been on a 10+ year roll where prices grew in a steady freddy way. Correct me if I’m wrong on that. On the other hand, specific geographies in NY and VT doubled in price within 18 months, Otsego county being one of them. All tolled, the area tripled from spring 02 to Sept 05. I know I may be repetitive or belabor the point but it’s important not to lose sight of that observation. The flavorful rationalization for the grossly inflated prices is “9/11 forced everyone out of NYC… they all want to live here” yet census bureau data show upstate counties losing population as recently as 2006.

As a side note, I’ve never seen something as insane as a 500k trailer on a postage stamp 5 acre lot in the northeast but nothing suprises me anymore.

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Comment by Rancher
2009-01-14 18:05:10

The prices started to swing upward
about 2001 and it’s been a steady climb due
to the increase in retired who moved here.

Prices really took off in 2004 and climbed
steeply and peaked in 2006. Now the market
is down about 20% and has a long way to fall.

Unemployment is over 10% and rising
fast. Large plywood mill just shut down
and two more in Medford got the ax.

Lots of empty storefronts and people are
starting to be visibly worried.

 
Comment by doug r
2009-01-14 23:39:56

No housing starts, no need for lumber.

 
 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2009-01-14 13:01:29

Things move slowly out here, but they will eventually get it. There are always going to be distress sales that will aid in price discovery. Spring will be interesting from Owego to Oswego.

 
 
Comment by gather no moss
2009-01-14 14:37:37

I spent a fair amount of time in Binghampton in the early 90’s. It was very depressed, not many jobs, old houses crammed together and dreary weather. According to a Polish priest I worked with, the area has been a big draw for many of his fellow emigres.

In 2005 The Times wrote an article about how the boom missed them: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/23/realestate/23nati.html

 
Comment by nucemgd
2009-01-14 18:09:49

LOL, I got a kick out of seeing good ‘ol bingo cited on in the news.

I grew up in binghamton and now live in Jersey City and work in manhattan

binghamton is a nice cheap place to live but there are very few well paying jobs out side of m.d. and lawyer. In fact, that’s pretty much all that is there now! Well, there are some defense industry jobs as well

Endicott Johnson closed up years ago, IBM up and split.

Binghamton does have an absolutely thriving government benefits and disability industry there. The poor from all over flock to the area as the benefits are some of the best around.

you know things are dire when places like Binghamton, Buffalo and Rochester are cited as shining examples or not having been part of the housing bubble

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-01-14 07:58:42

“In the end, there’s no good answer when folks don’t earn enough to meet their monthly expenses, the judge said. Chapter 13 bankruptcy, he said, ‘will help you keep your house if the reason you got behind is something that’s now been resolved. But if the problem is your mortgage went up to more than you can afford, (Chapter) 13 can’t solve that for you.’”

Can Ch 13 + a cramdown solve that for you?

Comment by Carlos Cisco
2009-01-14 08:43:17

I dont see much of an effect from mitigation here in Ohio. Unless its 10 times worse than the boyz are letting on. Hundreds of sherrif sales are scheduled for this month alone in our county (Cuyahoga - Cleveland). Admittedly, many of the houses are located in urban or inner ring slums or near slums, but, many are not. Almost every city touched. No mitigation will help the unemployed.

Comment by palmetto
2009-01-14 11:46:05

Carlos, I saw that Marcy Kaptur on C-Span yesterday. No matter what you may think of her politics, I have to say she’s one of the few in Washington who seem to have a firm grip on what happened with the bankster bailout. Awesome! I loved the fact that she told people if they’re foreclosed on, to hire an attorney and stay put, because no one knows who really owns the houses. Wow! And I’ve seen this in public records. Some servicing company files on behalf of “pass-through” certificates. Who owns those pass-through certificates? No one knows.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-01-14 13:33:08

IIRC, a Cleveland judge halted a foreclosure because Deutsche Bank couldn’t prove that it owned the house.

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Comment by DinOR
2009-01-14 13:48:52

palmetto,

Seriously? I… suppose it makes perfect sense. I didn’t hear the interview but with the way banks are folding left and right, if your’s hasn’t, well let’s just say every day brings a new development?

Without any grounding in the law I can’t say for certain but just having the lender ’say’ “Well when ______ went under we acquired their assets before WE were bought out and then went into FDIC receivership and um… I’m sure we have the paperwork ’somewhere’?”

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Comment by Carlos Cisco
2009-01-14 18:52:48

We have had pols speaking out of both sides of their mouths for years; my congresswoman assured us that she was against the bailout. She voted against it the first time, then caved. So, now she can say she voted either ways depending on the outcome. She’s toast in 2 years.

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Comment by The Housing Wizard
2009-01-14 08:51:33

Just think about how much they would have to cram down the loan amounts on some of these loans . I just don’t know how they think that
unemployed people can afford their loan payment after they exhaust unemployment insurance and savings . In the past ,broke jobless people always ended up losing their home .

I know a lady who ran up her credit cards 30k just by buying clothes from that Home Shopping Network after she refinanced her house to
pay off her prior spending sprees .A good 1/2 of her loan amount was spent on junk ,including a car . Now this women is looking at walking from the house and no doubt is headed for BK . This lady makes $2,600
a month and currently has a 40 year fixed note at 6 % . If you were a Judge would you cram down that 200k loan amount and scratch the 30k in credit card debt ?

Comment by Xenos
2009-01-14 08:55:30

Would serve her right to get the cramdown, under Chapter 13 she would have to live under the thumb of a plan that would take every last bit of pleasure from her hedonistic life.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2009-01-14 09:38:28

The cram down isn’t based on a person’s ability to pay. It is based on the market value of the property. Then, if you can pay the new note within a very restrictive budget that the court sets, you may be allowed to keep the property. You will then make the payments, come hell or high water, for the next five years, or go back to court and get liquidated.

This is very efficient for the bank, compared to foreclosure.

If you have no income, game over.

Comment by The Housing Wizard
2009-01-14 10:33:48

But Blue Sky ,why would a Judge set up a payment pursuant a cram down (based on market value ),if the owner still can’t make the payment . Isn’t the purpose of cram downs to keep the borrower in the house ? This lady currently has a monthly debt to live that exceeds
her income by 100% because of the high rate on the credit card debt and a RE loan that far exceeded her income ability from day one . I’m just saying that the cram down would have to go below
low market value to even fall within ability to pay and the credit card debt would have to have low payments also .

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Comment by Blue Skye
2009-01-14 12:54:28

If that is the reality, then the house should go. The whole idea is to make you work hard, stop borrowing, live on as little as possible, while paying as much as possible to the creditors. Maximize return to creditors.

Cramming down below market value does not maximize return to the creditor. If you can’t pay what it’s worth on a meager budget, you don’t get to keep it, the creditor for the secured property does.

 
Comment by CA renter
2009-01-15 01:58:44

Wiz,

Not sure if this is the plan, but I’ve heard it tossed around that they would only do cram-downs if the lowered amount was equal to or higher than the value if it were foreclosed.

IOW, whichever is better for the lender: cram-down OR foreclosure. If they cannot afforde the equivalent foreclosure price, then the lose the house.

 
 
 
 
Comment by denquiry
2009-01-14 12:39:26

Can Ch 13 + a cramdown solve that for you?
—————————————————————
IMO, the cramdown is a cram-it-up your $ss (or the taxpayer’s $ss.)

 
 
Comment by Anon
2009-01-14 08:10:21

“Pittsburgh’s housing market, often assumed to be shielded from national ups and downs, has begun to show signs of strain amid the downturn. The most sluggish national housing market in decades has helped push down the number of high-end home sales in Allegheny County, according to a Business Times analysis of all residential transactions of $200,000 or more through November.”

I’m from Pittsburgh and now live in DC, and I really miss being in a place where over $200k is “high-end.” That’s laughable to me now since that’ll maybe get you a studio apartment here, or a foreclosure in a bad neighborhood.

It sucks to hear that things are slowing down even there, though, but hopefully it’ll be mild compared to the bubble markets.

Comment by Blue Skye
2009-01-14 09:43:19

Pittsburgh is used to depression. At least there is no red dust to contend with this time. Prices will once again be a …steel.

Comment by Mugsy
2009-01-14 18:47:51

“Prices will once again be a …steel”

Aladinsane is spinning in his…whatever he’s in these days.

 
 
Comment by samk
2009-01-14 09:58:00

“a place where over $200k is “high-end.””

I don’t know that 200K is considered all that “high-end” out here any more. We get more bang for our real estate buck, to be sure, but I looked at a lot of 145K - 165K homes a few years ago that were pretty bad.

I had to go out to California to do some server work in 2004 and the guys I worked with were amazed at what I paid for my home. I was shocked when I saw what people in California were getting for 350K.

Comment by packman
2009-01-14 10:59:09

I didn’t think you could get a home on CA in 2004 for 350k. You certainly couldn’t up where I lived north of SF - nothing at all less than 450k or so.

Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-01-14 14:44:00

Packman,

You were able to in Pacifica, Redwood City, San Bruno, South San Francisco, Daly City, Colma.

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Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2009-01-14 16:50:16

‘You were able to in Pacifica, Redwood City, San Bruno,..’

Yeah, here’s one here:

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/reb/993169151.html

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-01-14 18:43:04

AbsoluteBeginner,

Oh yes. A great place to live. Next to the train tracks and underneath the take off path for SFO. You definitely will get lots of sleep. ;)

 
Comment by rms
2009-01-14 20:40:30

“Oh yes. A great place to live. Next to the train tracks and underneath the take off path for SFO. You definitely will get lots of sleep.”

A 1,000-sqft box for $380k would prevent me from quality sleep. California dreaming!

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Anon
2009-01-14 08:13:55

“Pittsburgh’s housing market, often assumed to be shielded from national ups and downs, has begun to show signs of strain amid the downturn. The most sluggish national housing market in decades has helped push down the number of high-end home sales in Allegheny County, according to a Business Times analysis of all residential transactions of $200,000 or more through November.”

I’m from Pittsburgh and now live in DC, and man do I miss living somewhere where over $200k is “high-end.”

 
Comment by Northeastener
2009-01-14 08:23:29

There is a lot of misinformation surrounding the origins and consequences of the current financial crisis, warns Tab Finchum, a financial adviser with Edward Jones.

Lol. Talk about closing the barn door after the horses have fled. Typical of financial advisors everywhere, this guy is focused on the past. Where was he two or three years ago? I would be willing to bet his clients suffered massive losses in the markets in the last year and his response is probably “you need to be in it for the long term”. My favorite is “over the long term the stock market returns x% on average”. Most of these guys just parot the crap they’re fed from the company they work for and collect their fees.

Also, nowhere does he discuss the larger credit bubble, of which the real estate bubble was just a part. He’s focusing on the housing bubble as central to woes, so in reality, he still doesn’t get it.

I have nothing but contempt and disdain for “Financial Advisors”…

For the sake of full disclosure, I don’t use financial advisors, last year my retirement account returned 5.7%, and I have this blog to thank for part of that.

Comment by DinOR
2009-01-14 10:13:08

By and large your criticisms and observations are -very- accurate. But if you go on any blogs like Registered Representative, the Edward Jones crowd is considered the lowest of the low.

In part due to their “Main Street Model”. They’d infinitely prefer some guy/gal that worked at UPS and can bring over assets from their former employer’s middle mgmt. than some “smarty pants know-it-all”. They actually have a pop-up on each “adviser’s” homepage to click on that says “Why is the Market Down?” and it explains it very dumbed-down fashion.

Having slicksters on the other end of the spectrum like this plane-ditching ( almost got away with it! ) Marcus Schrenker isn’t helping the industry’s image much either.

 
 
Comment by FP
2009-01-14 08:29:28

“A Derry carpenter fell behind on his payments after he was laid off; his adjustable-rate mortgage payments ballooned to $3,200 a month. ‘The government bailed out the bankers, they bailed out the car companies; who’s bailing me out?’ he wonders aloud. ‘Nobody.’”

Wow, a carpenter who has a house payment of $3200. Even if you are an Electrical Engineer, that payment is a huge stretch if you use the 30% rule. He is probably using NAR’s 200% rule (which includes spouse’s income, if you have one)

Comment by In Colorado
2009-01-14 11:46:15

I knew some trim carpenters that made pretty good coin during the boom.

Comment by milkcrate
2009-01-14 22:54:25

Some trim made off like bandits as well. :)

 
 
Comment by reuven
2009-01-14 17:14:36

Well, Mr. Carpenter, if you had paid your mortgage then the banks wouldn’t need the bailout!

 
 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2009-01-14 08:40:11

Pittsburgh- one of those rust belt cities that have more bars in more places.

Comment by DinOR
2009-01-14 08:50:23

How is ‘that’ so bad? I’d infinitely prefer a “corner tap” on every street corner than some Mega “gentleman’s club” adjacent a shopping mall ( or school like we seem to have here in OR )

At least the people are real and you can sulk in peace? ( And yes, the liquor bottles are half empty )

 
 
Comment by Mikey(2)
2009-01-14 08:41:53

For a time, he tried dropping the price to $299,000 and reducing the square footage from 2,100 square feet to 1,500 square feet, with single-story living. ‘We didn’t get any calls,’ he said.”

I’m seeing these “price reductions” around here, where the price per square foot of the reduced-size house is actually significantly higher than the price per square foot of the originally planned larger houses.

I would bet that most of the people who buy houses have no idea what their square footage is; real estate listings typically don’t mention the sf of existing construction and the selling agents often don’t seem to know the sf themselves.

Comment by Shelby
2009-01-14 08:49:12

RE Agents specifically try to AVOID listing square footage on listings.

I *think* they can be liable if the listed square footage is incorrect and if Buyer nail them on it after they purchase the listing.

Anyone know for sure?

Comment by phillygal
2009-01-14 09:10:12

I asked a realtor who was showing me a property.

He told me pretty much what you said, then added that some listings will note the approximate square footage, but they never commit themselves to a precise number.

Comment by Mikey(2)
2009-01-14 09:51:37

Willful ignorance is the hallmark of a “good” real estate agent. Advise your client to check “unknown” in the Seller’s Disclosure if there’s a known deficiency, claim to not know anything that might be detrimental to a sale if not legally required to do so.

I don’t see how they can assign a price to a listing without knowing what the square footage is with some precision; but then again, I can’t see how someone would buy a house without knowing the sf with some precision.

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Comment by DinOR
2009-01-14 16:46:01

“Willful ignorance is the hallmark” LOL!

Mikey(2) I’m staring to like you as much as Mikey! So very, very true. Just walk around the property w/ the person you’ll soon be paying $18,000 and mark down each time their reply is: “You know I don’t know but I’ll check into it”.

It’s actually quite fun! Start with complex questions that have the ‘potential’ to unknowns and work your way to the obvious!

 
Comment by mikey
2009-01-14 17:41:16

Makes mental memo:

Mark Valentine card sent from fickle DinOR “Return to Sender” and stomps off in jealous rage to launch massive boycott of those small wormy Oregon patatoes :)

 
 
 
Comment by scdave
2009-01-14 09:10:25

Not sure where you are from but most homes here in Cali. the square footage is public record…

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-01-14 11:20:35

And it’s public record here in Pima County, Arizona.

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Comment by In Colorado
2009-01-14 11:47:31

Same here in Colorado.

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Comment by Mikey(2)
2009-01-14 13:12:46

Yeah, it’s public record here, as well, and the realtors have surely have that info but don’t reveal it. And most people don’t have a clue where to get it or to even know to ask about it.

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Comment by Skip
2009-01-14 14:17:59

The square footage in the public records is only for permitted construction.

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Comment by phillygal
2009-01-14 09:15:06

Mikey2,

I saw one of your posts where you indicated you were looking for a rental…how did you get the wife to come on board?

I’m in your area, I’m seeing some real erosion in the low end, but also a new home development in GVSD started out a few years ago with the sign: FROM THE 700,000s…there’s a newer sign:
starting at $599,000…

How would you like to be one of the buyers who paid 700k?

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-01-14 11:29:24

Phillygal, I was back in Eastern PA over the holidays. During one of my old walks around the nabe, I saw a house for sale.

Didn’t look like anyone was living there, but there was furniture inside. “Staging,” I thought.

So, I went home, plugged my laptop into Dad’s Internet connection and headed for the MLS. With Mom at my side, we took a look at the listing.

Asking (wishing) price was a hair under $500k. In Chester County, PA. (Yes, it’s finally happening.) And, yes indeedy-doody, the house was staged.

Mom said that this house has been on the market for many, many moons. The local consensus is that the price is still too high.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-01-14 11:30:51

Oops. Should have referred to that walk as a walk around the old nabe. My bad.

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Comment by milkcrate
2009-01-14 23:00:32

Hey, Slim:
My mom, still doing well past 80, was raised in that county. ;)

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Comment by Mikey(2)
2009-01-14 12:27:56

Hey Phillygal -

My wife just wants a bigger house, so if that means renting a bigger place until I feel that prices have come down enough, then she’s on board with it. And, although she was never convinced (or cared) that houses were priced too high, the talk about the bad economy has at least convinced her that prices coming down is a possibility. Of course, our problem now is that our prospective buyer seems to be reevaluating his position in light of the economy, so methinks we’re all going to be staying put.

Yeah, I’m seeing the begrudgingly slow decline in prices here too. Should be an interesting spring - I’m already seeing houses that were pulled off the market re-appearing at the same prices from last summer.

 
 
Comment by Not Mssing It
2009-01-14 12:33:04

Co worker, years ago told me he had bought a second home to rent out. I asked him what the square footage was. He stared at me blankly. I said “how big is the house, you know square footage?” still a blank look finally I asked “what does it measure?” He then said “Oh that. It’s probably about 40 ft across the front and oh about 30 ft deep.”

Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2009-01-14 14:03:28

I was looking at office space with some Realtor representative from a local commercial RE firm. The guy had just graduated from Old Dominion University with a degree in finance. He had a photocopy of the blueprint to the building with the two spaces. Upon giving me prices I said, “Uhm… square footage wise, this one is smaller yet more expensive? Why?” He replied, “Oh I don’t know what the square footage is… I’d have to go look that up back at the office and calculate it.” One office area was 25′ wide and 50′ deep, the other part was 30′ wide and 50′ deep.

 
 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-01-14 09:03:08

Sue Spann, … said, ‘I believe it is a correction but there are a lot of different components, a lot of different layers to this correction. There is a correction in prices, there is a correction in the stock market, the whole economic correction we’re experiencing right now and I think to a certain level there is a mindset correction as well, a whole lifestyle correction.’”

Well, I think she’s…correct.

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-01-14 11:06:09

It is a correction known as a debt collapse. The last one of those that we had, we called The Great Depression. “Correction” sounds so much more friendly.

 
Comment by Wine Country Dude
2009-01-14 13:22:15

Made me think of Ricky Roma in Glengarry, where he’s in the bar and he starts spouting some incomprehensibly vague and meaningless sh1te about life, existence and selling plots of land.

This agent is trying hard to take the big picture, but I fear that her vantage point is not of this solar system.

 
Comment by mikey
2009-01-14 18:56:30

Oly,

RE agent/broker Sue Spann is just isn’t saying anything new, novel or anything that people in this room haven”t said for years. She’s attempting to put a human, friendly and helpful FACE on her Realtywhore “profession”.

When there is nowhere to run or hide from the reality of the mischivious situation you’ve been part of, some people find it to their advantage to suddenly jump upon the the respectablity bandwagon or appear pop up wanting to lead the choir.

I merely tried real hard to LOOK small, cute and innocent …while I blamed ALL MY Sins on my older brother :)

 
Comment by rms
2009-01-14 21:01:36

Maybe Sue’s next home will be the Dept. of Corrections. :)

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2009-01-14 09:59:17

Kewl …..$285,000 for an Adobe hut in Santa Fe:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/14/greathomesanddestinations/14gh-what.html

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-01-14 11:24:07

And “hut” is the right word!

 
Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2009-01-14 12:04:35

More evidence that in the future, every restaurant will be a Taco Bell.

 
Comment by wmbz
2009-01-14 12:12:52

Yes, but it’s “traditional”!

 
Comment by Not Mssing It
2009-01-14 12:38:30

There is no way that could be legit. Is there an oil pumper out back we can’t see in the photo?

 
Comment by Sagesse
2009-01-14 16:20:09

It’s offered by Sotheby’s.

 
Comment by CA renter
2009-01-15 02:50:46

Any people wonder why our economy is going to heck. With people paying prices like that for small condos and adobe huts in New Mexico, there is nothing left over for the **real** economy.

People are crazy.

 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2009-01-14 10:18:08

When Binghamton is our last hope, we are in a corner.

It seems to be a matter of comminty pride to have more expensive houses built. Why is it “good” that the new houses are $400K when the average house is $200K? Trust me, many of those $200K houses would cost more than $400K to rebuild. My $100K Victorian had a replacement cost over $1M. The average price of existing housing is $200K because that is what the area can support today (er yesterday), not because the builders lacked vision.

Oh, yes, build it and they will come.

Same attitude here in Yates County, just divide the numbers by 2.

 
Comment by Mo Money
2009-01-14 10:55:59

‘Home ownership was one of the biggest links to get people off of welfare and to get their kids to become good members of society.’”

Wow, I had no idea that owing (sic) a home made you instantly a tycoon and made your stupid brats stop joining gangs and tagging everything ! Does it solve bad breath and cancer too ?

Comment by az_lender
2009-01-14 17:53:38

Yup, that’s why I keep blaming the whole housing bubble on (my fellow Repub) Jack Kemp, who correctly observed that po folks treat their abodes better if they “own” them

 
 
Comment by Mo Money
2009-01-14 11:07:20

“‘This is bizarre,’ Eisenberg said. ‘I have never, ever seen it.’”

Yeah, an area that hadn’t been ruined yet by the National Homebuilders ? Inconceivable !

 
Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-01-14 12:49:53

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28656573

“For Big US Banks, Trouble Is Just Getting Started”

“The US saw 40 banks fail in 2008 and the number is expected to multiply this year into the hundreds.”

“In essence, the story of 2008 will be the story of 2009, only amplified.”

 
Comment by Gail
2009-01-14 13:23:32

This housing disaster we happen to be in was instigated from not just desperate (yes ignorant) Americans who wanted a slice of the great American pie, but also brilliant key government officials including our President elect Barack Obama who wrote a letter to Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac encouraging them to make it easier for high risk individuals to purchase homes. I believe these government officials pushing the need to get poor people into homes they otherwise could not afford and other third party individuals who pushed the sub-prime paper loans to enable an individual who didn’t qualify for a home should be held accountable. It is nice to read that some are being held accountable, but what about the rest? Will our Government officials who advocated making it easier be held accountable?

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-01-14 14:34:19

Possibly through the lens of history, but don’t expect top Government officials who were integrally involved to press hard for probing investigations into who is responsible for the mess, unless they can find a way to pass the blame to subordinates.

 
Comment by rms
2009-01-14 21:13:25

“This housing disaster we happen to be in was instigated from not just desperate (yes ignorant) Americans who wanted a slice of the great American pie, but also brilliant key government officials including our President elect Barack Obama who wrote a letter to Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac encouraging them to make it easier for high risk individuals to purchase homes. I believe these government officials pushing the need to get poor people into homes they otherwise could not afford and other third party individuals who pushed the sub-prime paper loans to enable an individual who didn’t qualify for a home should be held accountable. It is nice to read that some are being held accountable, but what about the rest? Will our Government officials who advocated making it easier be held accountable?”

This is the result when upper government positions are loaded with political appointments rather than those who worked their way up through the ranks. Today, all of the state’s Dept. of Transportation are headed by political appointments, not Civil Engineers as was the case 40-yrs ago.

Comment by measton
2009-01-14 22:17:52

Don’t stop there
Political appointment = campaign contributor, prior lobbiest of companies that lobbied for gov contracts, or most likely both.

It’s putting the fox in charge of the hen house.

“Heck of a job Brownie”

 
 
 
Comment by Skip
2009-01-14 14:21:08

the project was restricted to residents 55 and older. It featured three-story condominiums

Hmmm…building 3 story condos for retired people. I think I may have spotted the flaw in his cunning plan.

Comment by DennisN
2009-01-14 16:12:41

I wonder if he put elevators in all of them?

Heck one of the prime considerations when I bought my house here in Boise - intended to be my retirement house - was that it would be all-on-one-floor and without any front steps. This way I could still live in it if somewhat crippled/disabled.

 
 
Comment by gather no moss
2009-01-14 15:22:54

Prices in Nashua, NH have definitely declined. Looked online last weekend, saw a house with a tennis court on my old street selling for $289, we sold our smaller house of the same age (no tennis court) for $239 in 2003.

Houses in certain parts of Derry can be very expensive, they also have some outrageous property taxes. The only high school is private and the town pays tuition to the school. Two little neighboring towns also pay to go. Only in NH!

 
Comment by Ken
2009-01-14 17:20:29

No more bailouts. No matter how much taxpayer money congress gives out to bailout anything, it will not work. Home prices have to come down. Prices are still too high. Throwing taxpayer money at the situation only delays the inevitable outcome — much lower real estate prices. Nobody in congress has the guts to say this. All those fools care about is getting re-elected. You don’t get re-elected by telling the public they screwed up, took on too much debt, took a stupid adjustable rate loan and the congress has no business using taxpayer money to throw at the situation.

 
Comment by cactus
2009-01-14 19:31:29

High yeild junk bonds seem to be best preformers for the first 14 days of 2009.

Can this be right ? bargin hunting in the bond market I guess

Maybe we are entering a decade of bond outpreformance verus stocks ? Unless we get inflation which is why TIPS are probably so popular now.

Comment by Darrell in PHX
2009-01-15 05:57:17

Wait until the bankruptcies really get rolling and the junk bonds go to $0. Then see how hot they are.

 
 
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