January 15, 2009

What The Rise And Fall In Housing Has Done

The Ventura County Star reports from California. “Thousands of Ventura County residents were pushed out of their homes last year, and many more were left hanging on by a thread — a situation exacerbated by mounting job losses. In Ventura County, December foreclosure filings surged 37 percent from November and 97 percent from a year ago, according to RealtyTrac. ‘The primary cause of the rising foreclosure rate is really the jobless rate,’ said Sung Won Sohn, economics professor at CSU Channel Islands.”

“‘I think it has kind of spread and is reaching a new group of homeowners,’ said Kay Wilson-Bolton, a broker with Century 21 Buena Vista and a foreclosure specialist. ‘Now it seems to be reaching into the middle class.’”

“Banks seemed to be laying low during the holidays, she said. However, she’s gearing up for more foreclosures in 2009. More homeowners are seeking her advice, wondering if they should try to keep their homes. They’re less emotional and less willing to fight to keep their homes than they were a year ago because they see the price slide continuing and ‘want to get out before it’s really bad,’ Wilson-Bolton said.”

“Now they’re looking at it like a business decision, considering the money they could save in the months living free of charge in a foreclosed home while squirreling away a nest egg, she said.”

“Bill Watkins, executive director of the UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast, said December’s data indicates ‘that we’re not at the bottom of the cycle.’ Homeowners might try to make payments after losing a job, but they’ll eventually walk away and move out of state if they can’t find work, Watkins said. ‘There’s no way to sell a home in this market … and walk away whole,’ Watkins said.”

From Consumer Affairs. “‘State legislation that slowed down the onset of new foreclosure activity clearly had an effect on fourth quarter numbers overall, but that effect appears to have worn off by December,’ said James J. Saccacio, CEO of RealtyTrac. ‘The big jump in December foreclosure activity was somewhat surprising given the moratoria enacted by both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, along with programs from some of the major lenders and loan servicers aimed at delaying foreclosure actions against distressed homeowners.’”

“‘Clearly the foreclosure prevention programs implemented to date have not had any real success in slowing down this foreclosure tsunami. And the recent California law, much like its predecessors in Massachusetts and Maryland, appears to have done little more than delay the inevitable foreclosure proceedings for thousands of homeowners,’ he said.”

The North County Times. “City managers from across Riverside County are scheduled to meet Thursday to consider recommendations from a county ‘red team’ to prevent the county’s already dire housing crisis from leading to an exodus of biblical proportions.”

“About one-third of the two counties’ 1 million housing units either are in foreclosure or are in danger of entering the process, according to calculations from a Redlands consulting firm.”

“Perhaps the biggest obstacle is homeowners’ reluctance to seek help and a suspicion of those offering assistance, county officials and real estate experts agree. ‘People are not coming out to ask for the help they need,’ said Sabdi Ramirez, a real estate agent in Murrieta. ‘They are embarrassed and don’t know people are willing to help.’”

The Press Enterprise. “A California law that requires mortgage lenders to give customers 30 days notice before filing a default, appears to have only postponed the problems of financially troubled homeowners rather than resolved them. Between November and December, California saw a 122 percent surge in default notices that begin the foreclosure process, following a three-month decline, RealtyTrac reported Wednesday.”

“Lisa Jarman, a counselor with the Fair Housing Council of Riverside County, said there are modification programs…but she said most of her clients have too much debt or too little income to qualify.”

“Several economists and analysts predict the pain will continue through 2009 because of a worsening economy. ‘Rising unemployment is going to be the major catalyst for continued foreclosures in 2009,’ said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst with Bankrate.com.”

The Daily Bulletin. “More than 300 job seekers crammed the community center at Homecoming at Terra Vista apartment complex in Rancho Cucamonga on Tuesday afternoon, filling out applications and going through interviews with Lewis Apartment Communities officials. Fourteen to 18 jobs are up for grabs, giving the company an enormous pool of candidates to choose from.”

“‘It was incredible,’ said Nadene Chavez about the crowd of applicants, something she never expected to see. With her husband’s recent layoff from a construction equipment rental company, Chavez is trying to get back into the property management field, something she has 13 years experience in.”

“She lives in Covina, but the couple are thinking about selling their home and finding an apartment in San Bernardino County to live in so they can lower their monthly bills.”

“Mark Miller’s a carpenter by trade, eking out a living over the past few years by doing framing for homes in Big Bear Lake but was laid off because of the home-building slowdown. He applied for a maintenance-groundskeeper job. If Miller can’t find work locally, he’s ready to travel. He’s already looked into jobs at a livestock ranch in Nevada.”

“‘I’ve got my mattress back here,’ he said, slapping the side of his van. ‘I’ll go if I have to.’”

The Redlands Daily Facts. “Sen. Bob Dutton (R-Rancho Cucamonga) introduced SB 49 on Jan. 13, which will establish a homebuyer tax credit for single-family homes. According to Jim Earp of of the California Alliance for Jobs, ‘Construction is critical to the California economy and housing is a key element of the industry. When housing is down, we’re out of work.’”

The Union Tribune. “Saying they’ve been left out of the federal bailout package, about 50 home builders and construction workers marched outside three banks in downtown San Diego yesterday to protest foreclosures that halt construction work. The demonstrators, organized by a coalition of builders, called on lenders to modify distressed construction loans to allow builders to complete unfinished projects.”

“One of the marchers was Tom Dobron of Escondido, CEO of Innovative Communities. Dobron said his bank had declined to negotiate with him when he went into default on a $15 million construction loan a year ago. ‘I had nearly 100 people working for me,’ Dobron said. ‘I had to lay everyone off. Banks are not working with builders. I was forced out of business.’”

The Voice of San Diego. “An exceptionally loud opponent of government regulation in the construction of housing in good times has found a new target to bark at in the market crash: banks. Mick Pattinson, president of Barratt American, has rallied builders for years around common causes — lowering government fees for constructing homes and fighting back against development opponents.”

“Now, despite filing for bankruptcy protection late last month, Pattinson hasn’t lowered the volume. He gathered a gang of builders, subcontractors and laid-off employees who toted signs and chanted ‘Banks behaving badly!’ outside three banks in downtown San Diego on Wednesday morning.”

“Pattinson’s current case: banks created this housing downturn in the first place with reckless mortgage lending and thus shouldn’t be allowed to cut builders off from the funding they were promised. He’s assembled more than 160 builders nationwide to push for government intervention and regulation for banks.”

“‘Everybody had their snout in the trough,’ Pattinson said. ‘When markets rise, we rise with them, and when markets fall, we fall with them. It’s a risk business.’”

“Pattinson blames the crash in the market to the opaque systems banks were using to fuel the housing frenzy. The banks didn’t explain how they were operating, he said. He claims the real estate industry couldn’t anticipate how bad the downturn would be. But especially near the end of the boom, Pattinson and the region’s homebuilders had clues the system was on shaky ground.”

“Barratt American had a mortgage lending arm that turned away some would-be buyers who couldn’t qualify for the loans. Pattinson’s sales team began seeing those same customers who’d been turned down coming back to purchase a house. They’d gone to a mortgage broker with less stringent requirements, and they were back. The company couldn’t discriminate against those buyers, Pattinson said.’

“But could the builder have used that trend to foresee tough times ahead? ‘We knew it was going to end,’ he said, quickly revising his own words. ‘I say ‘we knew’– that’s an overstatement.’”

“John DeMaria owns DeMaria LandTech Inc., and is listed as a creditor in Barratt’s Chapter 11 filing. He’s owed more than $450,000. His company worked on pools and common areas in the Magnolia Estates project. When the builder kept sending requests for more work, DeMaria kept hiring workers to do it. Eventually, he wound up with a backlog of invoices that Barratt American was unable to pay.”

“‘I took a home equity line on my personal house to pay their bills and now I have to sell my house,’ he said. ‘It’s horrible.’”

The Union Democrat. “New Tuolumne County building regulations could soon reflect the reality of the current economy, which is seeing builders postpone projects due to a lack of financing. The Tuolumne County Board of Supervisors on Tuesday waived the first reading of a proposed ordinance that, among other things, would remove a two-year expiration date that is applied to building permits.”

“Local developer Jim Todd, of California Gold Development Corp. in Sonora, said, if anything, the current economic crisis has shown people how important the building industry is to the economy. ‘Hopefully, the thing people are starting to wake up to is we’re all in this together,’ he said. ‘Our segment of the economy ripples to the others. We’re seeing what the rise and fall in housing has done to the national economy.’”

The Record Searchlight. “Mirroring the rest of the country, foreclosure activity in Shasta County spiked in 2008. Foreclosure filings in 2008 jumped 268 percent from 2006, when RealtyTrac reported 443 in Shasta County. ‘It’s unprecedented,’ Mike Van Bockern, who conducts foreclosure auctions daily in Shasta County, said of 2008.”

“The median sales price in November in Shasta County was $210,000, a 14 percent drop over a year ago, DataQuick reported. Joe Rodola, a Redding credit counselor who also teaches a monthly first-time home buyer class, said some good is coming out of what he considers to be a ‘real estate disaster.’”

“‘I was complaining a couple of years ago that nobody was coming to my class because nobody could afford to buy,’ Rodola said. ‘Now with prices dropping to $200,000 and below, bam, first-time homebuyers are now eligible again.’”




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178 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2009-01-15 11:25:04

‘The big jump in December foreclosure activity was somewhat surprising given the moratoria enacted by both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, along with programs from some of the major lenders and loan servicers aimed at delaying foreclosure actions against distressed homeowners.’

‘Clearly the foreclosure prevention programs implemented to date have not had any real success in slowing down this foreclosure tsunami. And the recent California law, much like its predecessors in Massachusetts and Maryland, appears to have done little more than delay the inevitable foreclosure proceedings for thousands of homeowners’

I’ll go you one further: these moratoriums, to the extent that they have been done, have only put the lenders and the borrowers that much more in the hole.

I mentioned a few days ago that I see these companies that say they have put foreclosures on hold taking back houses all the time here locally. This is what is happening as far as I can tell. These people quit paying a long time ago, maybe a year or more. So these lenders have had the legal right to the houses for a while. Are they just overwhelmed? Are they stalling? Who knows? But this moratorium talk is just feel-good baloney for the masses, and delaying this healing process isn’t doing one bit of good.

Comment by Mo Money
2009-01-15 11:36:34

And the continuing wail from congress to use taxpayer money to help bail out “homeowners” is giving me an ulcer. Get a calculator out you morons, it makes no sense !

Comment by Ben Jones
2009-01-15 11:46:42

‘Perhaps the biggest obstacle is homeowners’ reluctance to seek help and a suspicion of those offering assistance, county officials and real estate experts agree. ‘People are not coming out to ask for the help they need,’ said Sabdi Ramirez, a real estate agent in Murrieta. ‘They are embarrassed and don’t know people are willing to help.’

Bzzz - wrong answer. This one is closer to the truth:

‘More homeowners are seeking her advice, wondering if they should try to keep their homes. They’re less emotional and less willing to fight to keep their homes than they were a year ago because they see the price slide continuing and ‘want to get out before it’s really bad,’ Wilson-Bolton said. Now they’re looking at it like a business decision, considering the money they could save in the months living free of charge in a foreclosed home while squirreling away a nest egg, she said.’

A third! Holy cow!

‘About one-third of the two counties’ 1 million housing units either are in foreclosure or are in danger of entering the process, according to calculations from a Redlands consulting firm.’

Comment by az_lender
2009-01-15 11:55:05

I also thought “holy cow” when I read 1/3 of the mortgages in Riverside & San Bernardino counties are in danger of entering foreclosure. Just shows that the only way the Feds can rescue all the banks is by buying the entire housing stock. I can only say, I hope they wipe out (bank) equity holders before they wipe out bank debt holders (me). Hey Big V, this is a reason why stocks do not qualify as cheap! Bank bonds remain cheap but who knows if the next crisis will change “cheap” bonds to worthless bonds.

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Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-01-15 12:40:37

Wipe out the bank debt holders too. And the MBS holders too! And if that takes down pension funds, too bad, no pension for you. And if it takes out the insurance companies, learn our lesson… use TARP funds to create new insurance companies that buy the account portfolios of the bankrupt ones.

Stop this selective rescue and let those that contributed to the disaster, or caught a falling knife, eat their losses.

 
Comment by Big V
2009-01-15 13:05:43

Gotcha, az_lender. I used an expired CD in my IRA to buy a few Valero shares a couple weeks ago. I am considering using future expirations to pick up bank stocks, but I need to be careful about bank deaths. I still need to be very critical, fer shure.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-01-15 15:01:19

Let’s put a number out there and extrapolate:

1/3 of 1,000,000 = 333,333 1/3 houses in Riverside and San Bernardino in danger of entering the foreclosure process. Those two counties combined have a population of just over 4 million:

Riverside 2,088,322
San Bernardino 2,055,766

They rank nos. 4 and 5 in CA County population, behind LA, Orange and San Diego, and their combined population is 10.9 pct of the state’s population of 38 million (CA Dept. of Finance figures).

If their foreclosure rates are representative of the entire state, then we likely have over 3 million homes at current risk of foreclosure. CA’s state population is only around 12 2/3 pct of the overall country’s (38m/300m), suggesting the number of homes at risk of entering the foreclosure process nationwide may be well in excess of 10 million.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-01-15 15:02:29

“…use TARP funds to…”

replenish pension funds (including my 401(K) :-) ).

 
Comment by DennisN
2009-01-15 15:50:37

It’s pretty amazing how there are 4 million people in Riverside and San Berdo. For comparison, there are also 4 million people in Oregon. There’s only 1.5 million here in Idaho. And for foreign color, there are about 5 million souls in Scotland.

Personally I couldn’t see living in either Riverside or San Berdo counties.

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-01-15 17:25:45

DennisN,

Um… what month of the year are we talking about here? Living, no. Taking a break from an OR winter, you betcha’!

 
Comment by peter m
2009-01-16 01:20:54

“Personally I couldn’t see living in either Riverside or San Berdo counties.”

There is nothing out there in those two counties, abbreviated as the IE . No jobs, no appealing rec areas, lousy hot dry weather and barren treeless landscape. I spend 4 years traveling all over those counties 2004-2007 and saw way back in 2004 that the IE was ripe for disaster. Builders just put up tons of new homes without adding jobs and civic infrastructures. The lack of diversified good paying jobs was the problem-It was all about contruction and retail. UE rate in the IE is 12-13% VS CA 8-9% and real UE is closer to 20% if u count part time & discouraged workers.

The long CA drought has to be wreaking havoc as the IE has always been barren during the long hot summers but now the entire landscape has to be covered with wilted barren lawns of foreclosed properties and the remaining homeowners simply gave up keeping their lawns green.

I spend a lot of time in OC coastal/bayside communities, and even they are slow and showing economic distress. I can imagine how awful it is out in the barren landlocked IE if such OC coastal resorts as Sunset Beach are at a standstill.

 
 
Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-01-15 12:43:34

There was a number of 1/3rd tossed out by Zillow via AZ Republic as teh number of PHX houses with mortgages that were upside down, with another 1/3rd within 10% of being upside-down.

Don’t believe it for a minute. Zillow has my house a good 20%-25% overvalued. For PHX metro, I bet 2/3rds of houses with mortgages are upside down.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2009-01-15 12:57:14

I wonder if they mean 1/3 of all mortgaged houses rather than all houses.

If this trend continues for another two years…….

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Comment by PeonInChief
2009-01-15 16:18:05

In fact, some people may be scared off by the huge number of scam operations in California. I received an email from a tenant whose landlord’s lender had just filed a Notice of Default. She had received an “offer” to help her stay in her home for six months for a fee of $600. This same offer was being made to owners whose houses were in default. What the tenant didn’t know (luckily she didn’t pay the $600) was that she had six months without raising her little finger to do more than inform the lender that she was a tenant living at the property. These scams are everywhere!

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Comment by hd74man
2009-01-15 17:07:49

RE: a third HOLY COW…

a forth, HOLY CRAP

But especially near the end of the boom, Pattinson and the region’s homebuilders had clues the system was on shaky ground.”

hey, hey Mick; And a big fat DUH to you!

Nothin’ like gettin’ in the game after the Fat Lady has sang, packed her bags, and headed home on the bus to Toledo.

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Comment by implosion
2009-01-15 17:59:26

This guy sounds like the “slow” kid in the The Last Picture Show who never even got the fat lady; he just made a mess and got slapped.

 
 
Comment by SDGreg
2009-01-15 20:58:43

‘About one-third of the two counties’ 1 million housing units either are in foreclosure or are in danger of entering the process, according to calculations from a Redlands consulting firm.’

I guess this means it’s not confined to subprime and well under
95 percent of mortgages are being paid on time. Will the tools notice?

What chunk of that third is from people that bought within few years of the peak of the bubble and are at least semi-permanently upside down and what portion is from people that re-fied their way to disaster?

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Comment by mikey
2009-01-15 12:36:21

Uh..

1..2..3..,1..2..3..4..and Hit It Folks !

The REIC chorus section softly sing “Buy Now or be Priced out Forever”

Now..The FB/GF/INVESTOR group chime in with “These Boots are made for Walking”

Don’t mind the ice water people, the SOS already went out, we have lifeboats for everyone and we have a US Treasury Approved Flare Gun :)

 
Comment by Big V
2009-01-15 13:02:01

Moratoria will be used as a tool of convenience when banks know they have too many liabilities (yes, liabilities, not assets) to unload all at once. Between the moratoria and the new “workouts” that offer 3-year balloon financing, these bailout recipients will be destroying more than their fair share of the middle class.

 
Comment by lavi d
2009-01-15 14:12:34

An exceptionally loud opponent of government regulation in the construction of housing in good times has found a new target to bark at in the market crash: banks.

Gee. So if you hadn’t been so successful in convincing the gummint to let you pave wetlands, bulldoze forests and blade hillsides in order to excrete tons of stick-and-stucco crapshacks without providing for schools, roads, hospitals, police, fire and paramedics, you might not be in such a sad state now?

My heart just bleeds…

 
 
Comment by CrackerJim
2009-01-15 11:42:33

“Local developer Jim Todd, of California Gold Development Corp. in Sonora, said, if anything, the current economic crisis has shown people how important the building industry is to the economy.”

Idiot.
The building industry is the result of a good economy, not the cause.
Reallocate resources, we have enough fricking houses!

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2009-01-15 11:55:00

We have enough of everything - PERIOD.

Yet they keep trying to grow consumption without a corresponding growth in real wages (and resources for that matter) - and have the nerve to call it an eCONomy.

 
Comment by Mo Money
2009-01-15 11:57:50

Oh Please Please build more retail space that idiot developers think they can charge an arm and leg for on rent !

Comment by uptick
2009-01-15 20:54:54

Union Democrat is a treasure trove for innane comments by locals.

Comment by uptick
2009-01-15 20:56:09

Ahem… inane.

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Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-01-15 12:46:53

“we have enough fricking houses!”

Actually, we have too many freakin houses. WAY too many.

For 20 years we were adding 1.2-1.3 million houses, but demographics of household formation said we only needed 1 million a year. 5 million too many housing units, all occupied by some 30 million illegals.

Then along comes the boom and we add 12 million more houses in 7 years…. an extra 5 million too many houses on top of the 5 million too many we already had.

At demographic norm 1% household formation = 1 million new households a year… we need to not build ANY new houses for 5-10 years (depending if the illegals stay or not).

Comment by Big V
2009-01-15 13:10:47

How many illegals will be taking their spoils back to Guatemala with them this year, never to return to the US? How much more anti-illegal sentiment will build as the unemployment numbers rise? How long before Congress kicks out the H1-B visa workers?

More. Empty. Houses.

Comment by palmetto
2009-01-15 14:02:04

“How long before Congress kicks out the H1-B visa workers?”

Don’t get me started, V. It can’t be soon enough for me. Much as I like Indian folks, their utter lack of ability to communicate technical issues in English is enuf to make me want to bang my head against a wall. Anyone here ever use Google Checkout? I almost wish I’d never opened an account. I ran into a little problem and sent notice of the issue, complete with meticulous documentation. And then I hear back from Pradeep Punjab with the most non-sequitur answer I’ve ever had. First of all, he calls me by the name of my customer, picking it up from the cut and paste of the customer’s email, rather than looking at my signature. Then he proceeds to give me completely incomprehensible directions, which had nothing to do with the problem anyway. Finally one of the American guys on the site where I was having difficulty straightened it out, and he doesn’t even work for Google. So, they’re paying old Pradeep to give the old Punjab to US customers. Nice.

Frankly, I think there should be some serious legislation passed that customer service people at any technical organization like Google should have the same first language as those they are trying to help (if in fact they are trying to help, I think old Pradeep was trying to shove it up my posterior just to get some jollies, even though I was extremely polite. Anyway, I’ll get even. Maybe not with him directly, but I’ll get even.)

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Comment by Big V
2009-01-15 17:50:51

That’s why people pay me to write things for them.

That, and also the fact that 80% of native English speakers can’t write worth a damn either.

 
Comment by palmetto
2009-01-15 17:58:19

“80% of native English speakers can’t write worth a damn either.”

An unfortunate circumstance of our dumbed-down educational system. I asked a person a very specific question on a site the other day, wanting to know what they meant by a certain expression and their answer was a sub-moronic “lol”. Really. But hey, everybody is a star.

 
Comment by not a gator
2009-01-15 18:15:42

It doesn’t help that the spelling system makes no sense and the grammar is a slapped-up mish-mash.

Even our written language is a moving target these days, never mind the vernacular.

More power to you, btw. Sweet gig if you go in for that sort of thing.

 
 
Comment by Skip
2009-01-15 15:43:58

How long before Congress kicks out the H1-B visa workers?

Won’t happen as long as Congressman are getting campaign contributions from the corporations using H1-Bs.

Watch how fast the 60k+20k H1-B visas go this year even with lay offs across all industries.

I think however, any bill to raise the limit will be dead on arrival this year along with any immigration reform.

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Comment by Steve
2009-01-15 17:33:19

The H1B caps are kind of a joke anyways. More and more foreign companies just open a US office and then use intracompany tranfer visas to bring in as many people as they want.

Steve

 
 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2009-01-15 13:44:17

Add 10s of millions vacation homes which underwater fb, 401K poor boomers, 30 year old Wall Street paper tigers, and those to be unemployed, cannot afford to keep.

Remember when a lakefront cottage in the boonies cost less than a house near jobs?

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-01-15 15:05:55

Don’t forget the folks (like David Lareah) who invested in their own personal real estate empire and now are underwater on multiple properties. Not all of them are going to be willing and able to wait this out.

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Comment by DinOR
2009-01-15 15:51:20

Blue Skye,

God love you for noting that Sir! Definitely one of the aspects of the bubble that drove me to the brink! I felt, sure, if you clowns want to form a circle-jerk and play musical houses in the city, hey have at it!

( But fer’ chrissakes leave “up at the lake” out of this!? )

Pffftt, what wishful thinking on ‘my’ part. In fact I think that’s where some of the most outlandish examples of rampant greed exist. Again, whatever happened to a simple cabin at the lake?

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Comment by Milkcrate
2009-01-15 19:01:38

Yup.

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Comment by Carlos Cisco
2009-01-15 17:44:54

The majority of vacant and soon-to-be-vacant houses will become black mold farms before potential owners and renters become able to afford them. The only thing which might change this would be quick, serious inflation; not hyperinflation. Check out Zimbabwe if you think that might work. Hope this change thing works. If not, enjoy the show.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-01-15 15:04:06

…the current economic crisis has shown people how important the building industry is to destroying the economy.

 
 
Comment by Mo Money
2009-01-15 11:47:15

They’re less emotional and less willing to fight to keep their homes than they were a year ago because they see the price slide continuing and ‘want to get out before it’s really bad,’ Wilson-Bolton said.”

Were these people not paying attention ? It’s not really bad already ? Do they wait for their stocks to go to zero before finally selling also ?

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2009-01-15 11:57:17

If they watch Cramer they do.

Comment by not a gator
2009-01-15 18:17:38

fffffhahahahaha!! +1

 
 
Comment by az_lender
2009-01-15 12:09:13

Apparently not yet Bad Enough here in Morro Bay. A few houses are for sale for under $300/sqft, but the typical asking price is still $400/sqft, and many ask $500/sqft or more. Some houses are bank-owned now, but buyers (when they appear) tend to be cash buyers, so foreclosures might not ever cascade. I do note that most FCs are in the trashy northern section where I rent. Beach is a short walk but few have decent view.

Yawwwwwwwwwwn. If/when I buy here, it won’t be because the bust has ended, it’ll just be because I got tired of watching.

Comment by Big V
2009-01-15 13:13:36

Not to be mean, az, but I think a lot of those cash buyers will be moving to retirement homes in a few years. Sounds bad, but it’s true. They will have to sell their houses to get cash for the home.

 
Comment by cactus
2009-01-15 18:58:31

Moro Bay they didn’t build too much there ? City used the old Water shortage argument to limit building permits ?

Nice country though long time ago I lived in SLO used to drive to the coast and go fishing at Montana de Oro which I think is blocked off now because of the nuke plant ?

 
Comment by REhobbyist
2009-01-15 20:13:37

$400/sq/ft in Morro Bay. Unbelievable. Don’t you dare buy, az!

 
 
 
Comment by DinOR
2009-01-15 11:56:51

“chanted “Banks behaving badly!”

“Banks are not working with builders”

( Well why the hell should they? ) Look bud, I know you miss your rockstar lifestyle, really I do. It’s just nice to see so many of these -formerly- cozy incestuous relationships turning on each other!

Our once high-flying local bank has plummeted from $35 a share to .67 cents. Nice work fellas.

Comment by Ben Jones
2009-01-15 12:03:14

‘Everybody had their snout in the trough,’ Pattinson said. ‘When markets rise, we rise with them, and when markets fall, we fall with them. It’s a risk business.’

‘Hopefully, the thing people are starting to wake up to is we’re all in this together,’ he said.’

Not everybody had their snout in the trough, and we ain’t all in this together. Housing is a big part of the economy, but unfortunately, we’ve had a historic housing bubble and now have way too many houses. It may take years to work through it, and these guys better find something else to do for a while.

Comment by Jim A.
2009-01-15 12:52:10

IMHO the REASON that housing is a “big part of the economy,” is that the manufacturing of housing CAN’T be outsourced as we have done with the rest of our manufacturing base. Really nothing can be done until the dollar falls hard against other currencies. And it falls far enough that our exports can match our imports.

Comment by Blue Skye
2009-01-15 13:14:53

Sorry, but a lot of “housing” can be outsourced.

Chinese drywall.
Undocumented workers.
Canadian lumber.
Copper pipe from South America.
Trucks from Japan.
Financing from Europe.
French doors :)

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Comment by lavi d
2009-01-15 14:22:55

French doors

Italian marble
Spanish tile
Dutch windows
and, of course…

Rich corinthian leather!

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-01-15 19:31:14

Ricardo Montalban said there was no such thing as corinthian leather.

 
 
Comment by Big V
2009-01-15 13:17:39

Either that or the American people (such as Jim A.) get on the horn and tell Congress to bring back the tarriff and tax penalties for companies that outsource. How about a law that says anyone who exports from a “country of known melamine” has to pay for an FDA inspector to test their wares at the port?

People used tarrifs, etc. for thousands of years for a very good reason. We should get back to that.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2009-01-15 14:16:23

I wondered when the first post on that topic would appear. Inevitable.

 
Comment by cactus
2009-01-15 19:01:30

we should out source the CEO’s save billions and get more work done

 
 
 
Comment by Big V
2009-01-15 13:15:25

Yeah, we’re in this foxhole together, with our guns pointed at eachother. You move, I blow your balls off. I move, you blow my head off. Not exactly the type of being together that most people aim for.

Comment by DinOR
2009-01-15 16:07:16

BigV,

Right, and as long as it’s just REIC players taking aim at each other, I’m fine with it. Kind of like the final scene from Reservoir Dogs.

Yet divorcing yourself from their mess is easier said than done.

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Comment by DinOR
2009-01-15 13:52:18

Ben Jones,

“these guys better find something else to do for a while”

Ben, I’m all for that, but what vocation are you aware of that allows people to attain such instant rockstar “credibility” with a pick-up, cell phone and (1) home sold at a profit!?

Oh and we’re all in ‘what’, together… exactly..?

Comment by lavi d
2009-01-15 14:27:11

…but what vocation are you aware of…

I am of limited knowledge of construction and finance, but I can see a time before home-building picks back up, but the economy is slowly healing and people who are staying put or buying foreclosures will start hiring folks to do extensions and renovations.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2009-01-15 15:09:56

“It may take years to work through it, and these guys better find something else to do for a while.”

To hear the Fed discuss it, you get the impression they think problems can be solved by respiking the building industry’s punch bowl.

Comment by David
2009-01-15 18:19:33

Here is a moratorium I think homeowners, developers, bankers, and environmentalists could all agree upon.
Six month nationwide moratorium on new housing starts, and 12 month nationwide moratorium on new subdivision starts. Stop new inventory, finish whats started, stop new supply so developers can sell their finished and in-process homes, stop new inventory so banks and FBs have less competition for selling their homes.

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Comment by DebtinNation
2009-01-17 00:22:34

And we can solve all of our energy problems with a 12 month moratorium on driving.

 
 
 
Comment by BanteringBear
2009-01-15 20:53:42

Anybody notice that none of the big builders has gone belly up yet? It’s a testament to the ridiculous sums of cash these guys made. When you’re clearing $400k per house in certain instances, the financial cushion is quite comfortable.

 
 
Comment by Stars End
2009-01-15 12:31:32

Would it be really bad form to march across the street from these bozos carrying a sign that said “BWAHAHAHAHHA!!!!!”? (apologies FPSS! :) )

Stars End

Comment by Jim A.
2009-01-15 12:53:57

Naah, carry around a Joshua tree….

Comment by Stars End
2009-01-15 12:58:58

EVEN better!!!

:)

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Comment by speedingpullet
2009-01-15 13:07:19

Its the fact that its…. Barratt.

Ok, Barratt American.

But anyone who’s been to Blighty knows that a ‘Barratt’ home is a synonim for ‘cheap, shoddy, tiny shack build on a landfill that will fall apart in 10 years’.

Seriously, tacking ‘american’ on the end won’t make them any better.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by barnaby33
2009-01-15 12:08:47

From each according to his ability. To each according to his need to find a scape goat.
Josh

Comment by NoSingleOne
2009-01-15 12:50:56

There is a glut of loss.

 
 
Comment by Mo Money
2009-01-15 12:14:36

‘I had to lay everyone off. Banks are not working with builders. I was forced out of business.’ ”Dobron said his bank had declined to negotiate with him when he went into default on a $15 million construction loan a year ago.

Whats to negotiate you self adsorbed moron ? You had a poor business plan, lousy timing, don’t pay your obligations and you really expect someone to loan you MORE ? Yeah, it’s all THEIR fault.

Comment by BanteringBear
2009-01-15 21:03:00

Exactly. I wonder how this guy would have reacted if say, in the boom times, the bank called to request part of his profits.

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-01-15 12:17:11

From the original post:

“Mark Miller’s a carpenter by trade, eking out a living over the past few years by doing framing for homes in Big Bear Lake but was laid off because of the home-building slowdown. He applied for a maintenance-groundskeeper job. If Miller can’t find work locally, he’s ready to travel. He’s already looked into jobs at a livestock ranch in Nevada.”

Umm, excuse me, but we’ve heard that jobs like cowboying and carpentry are the kind of jobs that Americans just won’t do. What happened?

Comment by Mo Money
2009-01-15 12:34:26

The low hanging fruit jobs went away and they got hungry

Comment by Carlos Cisco
2009-01-15 17:50:30

Is landscaping next? Is nothing safe for the downtrodden undocumented?

Comment by MacAttack
2009-01-16 10:21:21

Nope. Back to the NAFTA-ravaged Mexican farm fields.

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Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-01-15 12:57:21

And what makes him think NV isn’t already full of ex framers looking to work on a livestock ranch? And what of the people that we’re already working on the livestock ranch?

Oh, and what about the people that have downgraded from steak to rice and beans? Less demand for beef, but don’t worry, I’m sure you’ll get that job.

Comment by DinOR
2009-01-15 13:57:37

Nobody has a bigger chip on their shoulder for people that took the path of least resistance during the boom times then I do, but I’ll never grudge a man for trying to survive.

Personally I don’t have the b@lls to work on a ranch ( we have one of those Shih Tzu dogs ) and she’s all “I” can handle! Down Coco! DOWN!

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-01-15 14:06:17

I don’t begrude him for trying to survive. I just don’t think it will be as easy as packing up and moving 1 state over.

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Comment by YRUNLA
2009-01-15 12:21:05

I am so glad I don’t live in Simi Valley any more. My friend who became a realtor in 2003, told me in 2005 that I missed out making a half a million dollars on my home.
I bought in 1996 for 200K, sold in 1999 for 260K. I did think it was awesome to make 60K in 3 years, and we put that money down on a 3800 square foot home on 4 acres in Mississippi for 225K.

The houses (modest 1800 sq ft near Simi High)in my old Simi neighborhood are still selling (or sitting) listed in the 500K range. In 2006, these houses were selling for 700K.
Prices that went up 500 K in 10 years????

This will not be over for a VERY long time, and the more intervention from the Government will only prolong this whole mess.
We can only hope that the banks NEVER let this happen again. If you want to buy a house, save some money. 10 to 20 percent down is the only way banks should lend to people. If you are sitting on the fence out there in California, you should stay up there well into 2010 or 2011. You will get way more for your money. If you are loosing your arse on your house buying in 03 to 07, hopefully you will think twice before listening to a realtor tell you prices will only go higher and a mortgage broker saying you can refi in a few years.

Comment by palmetto
2009-01-15 14:03:59

“We can only hope that the banks NEVER let this happen again.”

That’s what they said after the Great Depression.

 
Comment by JohnF
2009-01-15 16:29:00

I’m not worrying about the banks doing it anytime soon - they are out of capital. What I am worried about is:

(1) Our government shoving money at the banks and forcing them to lend, or

(2) Our government just doing it directly through Fannie/Freddie, or

(3) Some combination of both (1) and (2)

IMHO…..home prices would go down another 50% if you mandated a real (10-20%) downpayment for purchases. I think the Feds know this too and are scared to death. That is why you would never see this common sense solution to our financial troubles.

Comment by hd74man
2009-01-15 17:51:18

RE: Our government shoving money at the banks and forcing them to lend,

Hey, what another $825 borrowed billion amoungst friends, huh?

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/pelosi-touts-825-billion-stimulus-package-2009-01-15.html

 
 
Comment by cactus
2009-01-15 19:09:26

Simi

Yes that whole area went crazy, I sold out of Moorpark and will only move back if prices go back to 2002 levels or below.

Had a chance to move back last summer but prices even to rent were tooooo expensive.

So I rent in Phoenix a nice house for the price of an apartment in simi.

 
Comment by jay
2009-01-16 14:22:58

sounds like you did ok, my parents sold their house in thousand oaks in 1989 for 200k, those houses were going for 600k in 2005. now, i see them for 300k….

my mom lives in simi, i told them to sell in 2005 and rent! anyhow, they paid around 260k in 2001 for the new house in 2006 they were going for over 700k…now i think 500k. they owned it outright so i guess it did not matter, but that 200k in the bank now would be real nice!! they would listen to me now, as i told her to get out of stocks in 2000 and well we know what happened. this time she was not in stocks so she has learned to listen to my advice! another year or two and we will be buying houses for pennies on the dollar!

 
 
Comment by Big V
2009-01-15 12:26:21

Mr. Big V got the axe yesterday from SEAGATE, which is totally racist against non-Chinese people. They prefer it if you’re actually a Chinese citizen.

So inywayz, I’m trolling Indeed (job posting site), and I realize that NONE of the jobs for him are in CA. They are in MA, MI, NJ, AZ even. There’s one in CA, but it’s medical device and he doesn’t have a medical device background. I’m hoping they hire him anyway, since I work in medical device now too, and I’m seeing that this industry is more stable than any other.

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-01-15 13:04:32

Sorry to hear it. Layoffs at my wife’s work yesterday. She survived, but it put her that much closer to the bottom of the list. This is HEALTHCARE!!!

Imagine. What IS safe?

Comment by incredulous
2009-01-15 14:19:58

TRW laid off a bunch of middle-management yesterday in SD. When defense contractors start laying off, San Diego is in BIG trouble.

Comment by Carlos Cisco
2009-01-15 17:58:07

TRW put thousands out of work here in Ohio a good 20 years ago. Said they were going high tech/defense. Guess its CA’s turn in the barrel.

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Comment by DennisN
2009-01-15 21:22:10

Defense laid off everyone when the USSR broke up in 1991. That’s why LA had a housing depression from 1991-circa 1998.

 
 
 
Comment by Jobs_Mess
2009-01-15 16:36:07

Just curious that how come all these consultants working for Accenture, Bearing Point, E&Y, Deloitte etc. are getting huge salaries? They are still working on projects and claiming average $150K salary.

These comapnies have ripped off the Govt. by charging like $400-$500 per hour for services of these consultants in the past 7-8 years. And a lot of consultants have been imported from outside, trained in India for 4 weeks and placed on projects.
They get all good benefits, hotels, and travel.

I’m not sure how come this lavish sub-contracting has been going on for years and years. Under Bush it rose to $400 billion as compared to $15 billion under Reagan.

Comment by DinOR
2009-01-15 17:30:35

Jobs_Mess,

Interesting, but don’t leave us there! Obviously you’re familiar w/ the industry, do tell more on an ongoing basis. Thus far these guys have been spared Ben’s regulars rath. And we all know no one is above THAT!

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Comment by SFC
2009-01-15 17:38:45

That seems high. $400 billion over 8 years ($50 billion/year), at $150,000 per person is 333,333 consultants.

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Comment by not a gator
2009-01-15 18:25:17

I was always attracted to the money and seeming excitement of working for firms like these, but I never had the personality for it.

Oh well. (I don’t think these folks will starve if laid off–their main skills are networking/people skills, not technical skills, though they can whip up a mean PPP, like that matters.)

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Comment by MacAttack
2009-01-15 13:38:41

Where’s Al Shugart?

Comment by Skip
2009-01-15 15:56:11

He’s indexed somewhere in that great big disk drive in the sky.

 
 
Comment by tgun
2009-01-15 13:44:29

Check out MN…

Boston Scientific
Medtronic
St. Jude Medical

There are many other smaller Med Dev. companies as well. The Fed. Res. District head recently said that Med Dev was one area that seemed to be “rebounding” from the job losses in 2008.

It was a balmy -21F this morning (-42 with the windchill). It warmed up to -4F (-29 with the windchill) and is sunny.

Best of luck with your search and landing back on your feet.

 
Comment by bink
2009-01-15 13:44:31

Ohhhh, I was looking for inside info on Seagate. I owned their stock not too long after the public offering years ago. They used to make some of the most reliable drives around and had the only 5 year warranty for awhile. What’s the scoop? Are they just suffering due to a general downturn in IT spending like everyone else or have they been run into the ground and outpaced by Flash memory producers?

(sorry to hear about your job, btw)

Comment by Big V
2009-01-15 14:01:13

Mr. Big V was doing failure analysis for them. He did a really good job, actually enabling them to figure out WHAT WAS WRONG with their in-development products. Seagate executives apparently do not realize the value of this. They try to compete using wage arbitrage instead of using competence. So many like that out there these days.

Comment by Mo Money
2009-01-15 14:15:12

Yes, but FA can be sent out to Charles Evans Group which runs 24×7 and charges by the hour.

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Comment by Big V
2009-01-15 16:12:05

Yes, Charles Evans was another place he could have worked, had he not taken the job at Seagate instead. Charles Evans is boring anyway. And not cost efficient for a high-yield company.

 
Comment by Carlos Cisco
2009-01-15 18:01:32

What happened to PC Doctor?

 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2009-01-15 14:23:28

Can that type of work be done in a “virtual office”?

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Comment by Big V
2009-01-15 16:14:18

No. You have to use instruments that cost hundreds of thousands of dollars each. He does a lot of analysis at home, though. Also preparation of presentations, etc.

 
 
Comment by bink
2009-01-15 14:23:37

That stinks. Maybe Western Digital is the new Seagate. He should apply there (I’m sure he has).

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Comment by Mo Money
2009-01-15 17:48:21

Western Digital just let FA people go too. Intel will be closing it’s local FA lab soon also in Santa Clara so competition will be fierce for jobs.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Mo Money
2009-01-15 14:02:07

Looks like you’ll have a househusband for a few months, better start putting together a daily chore list for him since there are practically no jobs out there. EDD is running weeks behind BTW.

Comment by JohnF
2009-01-15 16:31:47

The daily chore list would be a huge incentive for him to find another job ASAP…..

Comment by BanteringBear
2009-01-15 21:12:48

One of my sisters once read me the chore list for her friends husband who was on disability. “That poor guy” was all I could think.

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Comment by Skip
2009-01-15 15:59:00

Sorry to hear that.

Be sure and introduce him to the HBB so he can do something productive with his time out of the workforce. :-)

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-01-15 16:37:06

LOL!

 
Comment by REhobbyist
2009-01-15 20:29:37

Big V brought her husband to our HBB gathering last year. He’s a very bright, personable guy - I bet he’ll find something very soon. Best wishes, V.

 
 
Comment by james
2009-01-15 17:12:18

Sorry to hear that BigV. I’m in aerospace and you might want to check out Lockheed, Northrop or Raytheon. A bunch of pretty good contracts got shelled out and they are not going off shore.

Good technical people are pretty hard to find.

Is he an FMEA guy?

Comment by Big V
2009-01-15 17:58:39

He is an analytical physical chemist with a materials science bent and a PhD. He does XPS, auger, SEM, stuff like that.

Comment by James
2009-01-15 21:59:49

We could probably use him down here in LA.

I’ll look on our work website and post tomorrow if I see any leads. We have our own foundry and have a decent number of people that do that kind of analysis.

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Comment by Jimbo
2009-01-15 17:16:50

New Jersey? Don’t let them convince you the grass is greener way over here. Unfunny quip making the rounds among the hoi polloi: The only places hiring in Jersey are Mortgage Rescue Call Centers and Unemployment Offices.

 
Comment by cactus
2009-01-15 19:16:15

“They prefer it if you’re actually a Chinese citizen.”

Chinese bosses like hiring their own they can exploit them easier.

I work in high tech and notice once the worker gets his green card then the boss losses a slave.

AZ is laying off like crazy but maybe CA is worse? Hows Sacramento ? I was thinking of moving there if or when I get let go. Used to live there back in 1993.

 
 
Comment by Big V
2009-01-15 12:51:35

Construction is not critical to the CA economy. On the contrary. The CA economy is critical to construction. The dope has it backwards.

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-01-15 13:02:51

DEBT, lots and lots of debt, were both critical to the CA economy. Wait, I mean the US economy… Now, the world’s economy.

Debt goes away, it all comes down.

We had HUGE trade imbalances all over the world, and exchange rates were maintained by the trade surplus nations lending to the trade deficit nations. Well, they exceeded the debt carrying limit in the trade deficit nations. Now the debt collapses and either trade rebalances or exchange rates will go insane.

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-01-15 13:09:30

http://tinyurl.com/9h9f5h

“Banner Health on Wednesday said that it will lay off 334 employees in Arizona as it seeks to navigate the tough economy, another sign that the recession is spilling over to health care.”

“the hospital system faces myriad financial pressures, such as the growing ranks of uninsured seeking health care and those with insurance having trouble paying their hospital bills.

Also, the hospital system’s $2 billion investment portfolio - an important financial cushion for the non-profit system - has lost approximately 35 percent of its value over the past year as the financial crisis hammered Wall Street.”

“Banner provided $79 million in charity care in 2008, or about $18 million more than the year before. A large chunk of the charity care came during the final three months of the year as the working poor and newly unemployed sought care at Banner’s emergency rooms. .

The hospital also racked up about $68 million in medical debt, mainly people who are unable or unwilling to pay their health-care bills”

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-01-15 14:09:51

This posted in the wrong places. Was supposed to go under my comment about layoffs at my wife’s work.

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Comment by cactus
2009-01-15 19:27:05

https://egov.azdes.gov/cmsinternet/main.aspx?menu=148&id=836

Check this out AZ layoff warning notice site per AZ law companies have to file notices of layoffs over a percentage of total workforce. Only applies to companies over 300 persons I think

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Comment by desertdweller
2009-01-15 20:33:23

Tenant @ Desert regional Hospital, heard from a little birdie that Tenant only has enough money for 2 more months of daily operation. YIKES>

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Comment by Big V
2009-01-15 12:56:44

I continued building houses even though I knew the market would crash, so now I’m protesting because I’m not being bailed out.

Boo hoo hoo.

What a dingleberry.

 
Comment by (Soon to be ex-) GS fixer
2009-01-15 13:32:16

Off topic, but I need an opinion from the HBB brain trust…….

Hypothetical question: Assume that you work under contract for a larger corporation. This company has let you know that they are looking hard at terminating your contract, but no final decision has been made yet. This company has handled things fairly and professionally, at least so far.

In the meantime…..today, you find out via rumor control that your direct employer (the contractor) is (reportedly) rapidly sliding down the crap chute……rapidly enough that you have concern about your end of month check actually showing up (today’s check direct deposited okay). So essentially, it’s conceivable that starting tomorrow, you might be working for free.

How do you work the above scenario, as far as covering your own interests? Steps have been taken to protect the client.

Comment by Big V
2009-01-15 14:05:27

Look for a job.

Comment by (Soon to be ex-) GS fixer
2009-01-15 14:27:05

Already started……..but how long do you continue showing up for the client? He’s paid for my services, and (may be) getting shafted worse than I am.

My personal code of conduct is to attempt to do what I was contracted to do, until

-a new job shows up, or
-I definitely get shafted.

The good news is that I am in a position to let people make problems for themselves over ten times worse (money-wise) than I will get screwed, purely by doing nothing.

The aviation maintenance learning curve is REAL steep…….

Comment by Big V
2009-01-15 18:00:40

Keep working for the client until another job shows up. When you get a new job, give notice.

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Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-01-15 19:44:02

until..

Can you ask your client to pay you day by day? Every day you work for your client, your client pays you for that day of service.

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Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-01-15 14:11:43

Look for a job… HARD!!

 
Comment by Mo Money
2009-01-15 14:23:00

You’re walking dead if you’re on contract. Start looking.

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-01-15 14:28:10

screw the “monthly check” thing.. i don’t know how you might go about it, but find some way to get paid by the week.

Might be worth a few bucks to have an attorney take a look at your employment contract.. there might be a way to make a pre-emptive strike… or at least to position yourself in the front of the line to collect your pay if things go south.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2009-01-15 14:35:05

Don’t let fear be self fulfilling. You don’t know til you know. What can you do to confirm this rumor one way or the other?

If it does come to pass, it is possible the client will work with you directly on at least as good terms, especially if you do not lapse in your care of their toy.

Comment by (Soon to be ex-) GS fixer
2009-01-15 15:48:39

Plan “A” already in work.

My person Code of Conduct dictates that I continue to do what I was hired to do……the client has paid for my services. Besides, no final decision has been made yet (although it isn’t looking good).

The status quo remains until:
-A new job comes up, or
-I get stiffed on a paycheck.

The good news is that if I get screwed around, I can screw back about ten times as hard (money wise), simply by doing nothing.

The aviation maintenance learning curve is REAL STEEP.

Comment by aqius
2009-01-16 01:53:08

I’d help myself to some o’ those tiny salted peanut snacks in the galley, when no one is lookin, as my own personal payback to “the man” . . .

(beyond that, I got nuthin. good luck to you GS.)

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Comment by SFC
2009-01-15 17:47:29

Maybe the overhead added by the contractor you’re working for is the problem. Maybe the large corporation would be very happy to hire you directly for what you’re making now.

 
Comment by cactus
2009-01-15 20:39:15

Wow everyones getting laid off or what ??!!

My brother works in Avation in Washinton State for a large aircraft leasing Co.

 
 
Comment by mikey
2009-01-15 13:40:33

Bail ME out…I WANT a new Maserati !

Friday, February 8, 2008
Maserati dealer coming to Glendale

http://milwaukee.bizjournals.com/milwaukee/stories/2008/02/11/story17.html

Goodie…I WANT to test drive a new Maserati :)

Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Glendale Maserati dealership closes

http://milwaukee.bizjournals.com/milwaukee/stories/2008/11/17/daily29.html

Whoops :(

I guess THAT took care of my NEED for a new Maserati :)

Comment by Skip
2009-01-15 16:02:03

I wonder if they even sold 1 car?

Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-01-15 16:44:15

…”the unstable financial environment, along with an inordinate amount of interest in the property itself, made the decision to pursue the sale of the facility economically more interesting.”

Sounds like developers are climbing over eachother to be the first to pay big bucks for the land. There can never be enough highrise condos and McMansions.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-01-15 15:07:20

“The banks didn’t explain how they were operating, he said. He claims the real estate industry couldn’t anticipate how bad the downturn would be.”

Thems was our jobs.

Comment by Pullthetrigger?
2009-01-15 15:51:08

You are so right. Well, nobody would listen to folks like us, remember? I’ve been keeping my mouth shut now. Nothing left to do except to try to survive financially speaking. If not, join the masses of people… doing whatever they (or we) are going to do. You know, GS, this seems to be much worse than I and many others on this, and other boards expected. What do you think about the “unexpected” intensity of this what I’ve heard is a “financial meltdown” ?

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-01-15 16:51:08

This is about what I expected…

Housing Ponzi ends… Bubble cities plunge 40+% and less bubbly return to or below 2000 prices.

MBS holders take it in the shorts. Banks take it in the shorts. Government tries to save them, but just delays the crash. Too big to fail, meet too big to save.

Consumers that had been spending 110% of their income are forced to live within their means… minimum 10% drop in consumer spending, resulting in retail bankruptcies, reduced imports, dropping manufacturing, drop in transportation… ALL adding to the unemployment and underemployment of the builders, flippers, Realtors, etc.

Next? More corporate bankruptcies, continued foreclosures and banking losses, more hundreds of billion flushed down the drain to keep the mega-rich, mega-rich. More stock drops. Steadily increasing unemployment. By the end of this year I expect double-digit unemployment, stocks half of where they are now, and at least another 20% off house prices. Bankruptcies through the roof. At least another 10% off retail sales. Deflation to continue, atleast at the retail level.

Future? $15 trillion in defaults. $7-10 trillion in real losses. 15-20% unemployment despite massive government stimulus. Case-Shiller 20-city index 20% or more below 2000 level.

I do not think the Euro will survive 2010, and may not survive 2009.

I do think eventually, like 2 years from now, inflation will become a very serious worry. Until then it will be a story of crashing demand and excess supply of everything = deflation.

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-01-15 17:01:15

Anyone can boast… Well, couple years ago I had a friend that dragged me into poker for a year or so (I RARELY played for money and did not lose more than $100 over teh year… oh, wait… maybe $200.). At that time I got drug into this conversation about stocks.

http://tinyurl.com/8ql3ht

Post 158
June 21, 2007
“A month ago I posted about how 2007 market was mirroring 1929.

Well, it continues.

Months ago we talked about how much liquidity there was. Well, we’re on the verge of all that liquidity suddenly evaporating in a giant unwinding of the leveraged positions….

Merril is trying to liquidate the assets of a couple Bear Sterns hedge funds. Everyone else is absolutely frighten to death of those CDOs coming to market and setting a reduced price. Everyone in the financial markets is trying to figure out how Merril can sell the CDOs in a non-disclosure deal where the price is not released. That way they can all continue to pretend that the value of the CDOs has not dropped inthe face of mass foreclosures, and those foreclosures unable to sell for close to the amount owed on them.

Meanwhile, the other hedge funds race to cash out through IPOs. Liqudate their holding by selling into the equity markets. ANYONE that buys Blackstone is just as stupid as people that bought “new economy” tech IPOs back in 2000, then saw 90%+ losses.

Our entire financial market is holding on by its finger nails hoping that the results of Merril’s auctions of Bear Stearns hedge funds assets are not made public.

1929 indead….”

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Comment by desertdweller
2009-01-15 20:40:10

crap.
I was feeling okay, after reading this and todays posts, I think I spit up in my mouth a little bit. I feel dizzy.

And today, after Leaves were given out last week prior to furloughs, there was another announcement for more Leaves offered prior to furloughs.
HOLY crap..getting worse. Everywhere.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-01-15 23:56:52

Darrell_in_PHX gets the Eeyore award this week hands down! Those are a couple of devastatingly bearish posts — I am awestruck!!!

 
 
Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-01-15 17:13:48

June 29, 2007:
#174
We’re on the knife’s edge of a total economic melt-down.

July 5, 2007:
#184
Anyone with money in a hedge fund needs to get out now or they’ll be locked in forever.. Well, until liquadation when their positions are worthless.

At least with a house, you’re only looking at a 50%-ish crash in price.

July 9, 2007
(In response to an article about $90 billion in sub-prime loss…)

This is going to be a lot closer to $1 trillion than $90 billion.

What happens to the economy when the $500 billion a year in “equity extraction” from homes stops and turns into a $300 billion a year drain on the financial markets?

(okay, I was wrong on this one. It is more like $300 billion a quarter.)

July 10, 2007
I’m not rooting or cheerleading for a crash, and I don’t play the markets other than I’ve moved my 401(k) money from stocks to treasuries as a hedge to the comong collapse. (so, yeah, I got hammered today too). Maybe you don’t get my signature, but I don’t gamble for money.

I’m just discussing what I think is going to happen. I’ve been talking for months about the housing market implosion and how it won’t be contained. How it will spread to the equity funds and bond markets. How the collapse of the bond market will take down stocks that are being propped up my M&A and buybacks.

It is happening. I’m not rooting for it, just informing and looking to converse about it.

MBS holders will get hit hard. CDO owners will get hit hard. Equity fund investors will get hit hard. Pension fund investors will get hit hard. Financial companies will get hit hard. People that paid way too much for houses and are now stuck in those houses, will get hit hard. Stock owners will get hit hard. Lots of people in high paying financial and real estate jobs will be looking for other work. The dollar will crash.

We’ll have to go back to actually manufacturing stuff instead of just moving money, making bubbles and consuming goods made in China. We’ll have to get “real” jobs.

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Comment by Jimbo
2009-01-15 17:31:48

Hey! You left out the social upheaval! No “Road Warrior” scenarios from me. However, I can very easily imagine militant squatters in numbers so large they overwhelm shorthanded civil authorities. Kind of a “stake your claim”; behave half-decently; leave ‘em alone situation.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2009-01-16 00:00:21

“Housing Ponzi ends… Bubble cities plunge 40+% and less bubbly return to or below 2000 prices.”

For the record, SD price per square foot is down by over 40% from the May 2006 peak already (Radar Logic data), but only back to 2002 prices…

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Comment by Pullthetrigger?
2009-01-15 15:37:41

““John DeMaria owns DeMaria LandTech Inc., and is listed as a creditor in Barratt’s Chapter 11 filing. He’s owed more than $450,000. His company worked on pools and common areas in the Magnolia Estates project. When the builder kept sending requests for more work, DeMaria kept hiring workers to do it. Eventually, he wound up with a backlog of invoices that Barratt American was unable to pay.”

“‘I took a home equity line on my personal house to pay their bills and now I have to sell my house,’ he said. ‘It’s horrible.’”

Over and over again. Debt is not wealth!

Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-01-15 16:24:44

this kind of lending is pretty common..
A small businesses is short of cash for some reason (they want to expand, they need new equipment, some large customer is not paying the bill, etc) and you have to borrow from a bank, usually a secured loan on a personal residence or other property.
In a normal market this is no big deal and happens all the time. The bank fronts you the money and things eventually work out.

Small businesses do most of the hiring in this country. Keeping the credit flowing keeps people working. Trickle-down bankruptcy is no cake walk for working people.

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-01-15 16:34:19

And what happens when we keep the money flowing to banks, but the customers stop showing up? How much do we let the lender get screwed on defaults just to keep unemployment form getting worse?

Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-01-15 17:29:03

alls i was saying was that a small businessman getting a heloc is a normal thing.. that guy wasn’t blowing off the dough.. He certainly didn’t consider the loan “wealth”. He used it to make payroll, pay his bills and keep the business open.
Credit is not always evil.. it is the lifeblood of business.

But as to the question of which entity(ies) should be most strongly supported, consider that business is the core. Without businesses there is no bank.. there is no job. There is nothing.

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Comment by Big V
2009-01-15 18:07:00

A guy who does business on that scale, to where he is fronting his customers $450k, ought to have a reserve account.

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-01-15 18:25:22

err.. i dunno how else to put this. Business needs a steady flow of credit.
I don’t care who you are or how big you are or what sort of business you have.. there will be times when you’ll need a loan.

 
Comment by Big V
2009-01-15 21:31:54

I agree, joey, there will be times when you need a loan. I guess the thing I take issue with is the assumption that a business can’t pay their daily operating expenses without also drawing down daily debt. There has to be a happy medium.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Kim
2009-01-15 15:47:46

“Pattinson’s current case: banks created this housing downturn in the first place with reckless mortgage lending and thus shouldn’t be allowed to cut builders off from the funding they were promised.”

What about the funding the builders promised the banks, when they signed for the loan? Apparently the Golden Rule doesn’t apply to “victims”.

Comment by Pullthetrigger?
2009-01-15 16:09:46

I think your question is whether the builders have defaulted on their loans. Have they? It would seem that the point was that the banks refused to further fund the builders’ projects because of something stipulated in the fine print, and quite rightly, as I would imagine, but without details, who can know exactly?

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-01-15 16:26:57

..banks created this housing downturn in the first place with reckless mortgage lending

And they should be forced to do more reckless lending to us builders!

 
 
Comment by Rintoul
2009-01-15 16:34:02

This is *just now* hitting the “middle class”? I’ve got news for ya, Kay Wilson-Bolton. With home ownership at somewhere around 70%, don’t you think the 30% which do not own homes make up a good chunk of the “non-middle class” to begin with? (Not including me, of course, although I do rent).

Not sure what “middle class” is meant to represent, but in my mind, if you’re owning your own home (in the traditional sense), you’re most likely middle class to begin with.

 
Comment by bananarepublic
2009-01-15 17:15:39

To celebrate Chimp FINALLY leaving on the 20th, I plan on unloading a lot of my old shoes in the street that day.

If you see shoes on the road, consider that an extension of the insult that was thrown at dumbass on his “victory” tour.

Throw out your shoes on the 20th.

Comment by Big V
2009-01-15 18:09:12

Will this cause a traffic accident? Tie the laces together and throw them on the phone line.

Comment by bananarepublic
2009-01-15 21:30:45

People won’t notice them on a phone line, but they will in the road. And no, I seriously doubt a pair of shoes will cause an accident!

LOL

 
 
Comment by not a gator
2009-01-15 18:33:44

Can’t you donate them to your local thrift store? I mean, how beat up are they?

I returned a few to the thrift store system that I bought a few years back … recycling. ;-)

 
Comment by ahansen
2009-01-16 00:43:17

Been hoping this goes viral. Thanks for spreading the word, nanners!

For the rest of his misbegotten life, shoes…everywhere he goes, dangling there to greet him…on the golf courses, in the restaurants, on the catering table heel-down in the middle of the guacamole.

Bootify Murka!

Comment by Blue Skye
2009-01-16 04:26:53

shoe fly pie for everyone!

 
 
Comment by The_Overdog
2009-01-16 08:28:39

Why don’t you do something valuable with your shoes rather than throwing them out in the street for some city service person to clean up you childish douchebag?

 
 
Comment by Taison
2009-01-15 20:21:26

Basically the same old story, it is his fault, not my fault!

 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-01-15 20:43:53

Jan 20th,
Have an Inauguration party, have all guests bring shoes.
All shoes can symbolically be thrown at pic of george, and then
pick them up and donate.

 
Comment by measton
2009-01-15 21:50:27

At first glance, it appears that my Democratic colleagues think they can borrow and spend their way back to prosperity with a half-trillion dollars of new spending and less tax relief than President-elect Obama has been talking about,” said Republican Rep. John Boehner of Ohio, the party’s leader in the House.

Wow now if that isn’t the pot calling the Kettle Black. Has anyone pointed John to a graff showing the massive deficit expansion that took place during the last 8 years. Maybe Deficits don’t matter Cheney could draw it for him.

Comment by B. Durbin
2009-01-16 13:12:58

For at least the last two years, Democrats have controlled Congress. Congress creates the spending bills. So you can’t blame the “last 8 years” all on the Reps.

Comment by Big V
2009-01-16 14:55:07

But George Bush controlled the white house. Republicans had total control for 6 years. The bailout was from them. The Bush/Paulson bailout. “Borrow and spend our way to prosperity”. Yup. Pot, meet kettle.

 
 
 
Comment by rural-urbanite
2009-01-15 23:39:50

Off topic post here fellas. Some things bugging me which might make for interesting future topics/comments /discussions.
1.10,000,000 sq ft toxic chinese dry wall made from power plant slag now in people’s living rooms ? Huh ? Where?
2. Is congress about to bail out all of the major homebuilders? I read a few blurbs about an army of lobbyists converging on DC for just that purpose, and it appears they may have succeeded. Very sneakily they got this tax package in there so they can get back past taxes and use against current losses. That way the big boys make it look like they’re in good shape while losing billions. Must be nice.
3. Isn’t attempting to artificially reflate housing the most idiotic thing they could possibly do? Even reid and pelosi looked shellshocked these past few days over the stupidity of it all. I’m guessing they want those huge, mostly abondoned new home developments in Nv and CA restarted. Dumb.

Anyways, great blog, I’ve learned a lot reading it. ru

Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2009-01-16 12:00:47

Hi Rural:

You may want to repost this today under the “weekend topics” post. :)

 
 
Comment by TeddyBearNeil
2009-01-16 01:30:03

A Tale of 4 homes on Prosperity Street in a former Boom Town in California!!

Home 1 – Speculator Joe – Threw in the towel, but still got a $ 2K walkout fee (Jingle Cash) and the Bank sold the foreclosed home for $ 350K. He owns 2 other homes in the area. Did the same with those 2 homes also.
Documented Income: $ 100K
Property Purchase Price (Dec 2005): $600k
Down Payment: $ 0
Current Property Value (Dec 2008): $350k

Home 2 – Regular Joe – Got a loan mod from WAMU with an Interest reduction for 5 yrs and Balloon payment without a principal reduction – continues to live in the home!
Documented Income: $ 100K
Property Purchase Price (Dec 2005): $600k
Down Payment: $ 0
Current Property Value (Dec 2008): $350k

Home 3 – Joe the Plumber – Walked out of his home and mailed in his keys to the bank (Jingle Mail)!
Documented Income: $ 50K
Property Purchase Price (Dec 2005): $600k
Down Payment: $ 0
Current Property Value (Dec 2008): $350k

Home 4 – Regular Joe – Got nothing – continues to live in the home!
Documented Income: $ 200K
Property Purchase Price (Dec 2005): $600k
Down Payment: $ 120K
Current Property Value (Dec 2008): $350k

Comments?

 
Comment by Rosa Lopez
2009-01-16 21:01:18

“One of the marchers was Tom Dobron of Escondido, CEO of Innovative Communities. Dobron said his bank had declined to negotiate with him when he went into default on a $15 million construction loan a year ago. ‘I had nearly 100 people working for me,’ Dobron said. ‘I had to lay everyone off. Banks are not working with builders. I was forced out of business.’”

What a freakin’ pussy.

 
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