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The Housing Bubble
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Is this the end of globalization?
Lawdy, I hope so! I recall when I used to post that it was the WORST. IDEA. EVER. And then I’d get a butt flaming from the globalistas on this board. Now, however, even the MSM is questioning the wisdom of globalization.
Seriously, this is a far worse mess than I EVER expected. All I wanted was for housing prices to go down. I never wanted the US to become part of the turd world, but since the majority supposedly rules in the country, that’s where we’re headed. Say hello to my little fren’.
Much due respect Palmetto, but you know my viewpoint - I’m a globalist alright.
I’m a sovereign individual first, and American second. I’m happy to own parts of international companies. I have an affinity for international women as well.
It’s absurd to think that America should be a pig and use up as much of the world’s resources as possible. It is also being a pig to think that if someone in India can do my job in software engineering at 10% of my wage, that we should prevent him from taking over my work.
Yes, I’m overpaid. Eventually India and China will be much greater economically than the U.S. and we won’t matter much.
Part of being a liberal is to be willing to accept change. And I’m able to do that.
At the same time, I think America should enact some sort of tariff to get parity to the nations that already have tariffs on our exports. American produce in Japan is outrageously priced.
I do fear history repeating itself. And if we go the protectionism way, you better be set for a very deep depression.
‘Part of being a liberal is to be willing to accept change. And I’m able to do that.’
YOU?! A liberal?
Ummm…no.
I think he meant libertarian.
I think he means liberal in the classical sense.
The term libertarian came into play when the term liberal got hijacked by statists. “Classical liberalism” is another term that some currently use.
I think he might mean “librarian”. Lots of book knowledge, little real world experience.
**snort**!
I think he mans Liberian, as being from Africa.
You were away, Olympia? Thought you were back from Utarr a while ago. Was this a different trip?
“I’m a liberal. Term phrased by Frederik Bastiat. I am pro-choice, an atheist, very active in sex outside of marriage, for legalization of all drugs.”
Nonsense. Conservatives believe in sex outside of marriage. They just don’t believe in sex outside of bathrooms.
“Nonsense. Conservatives believe in sex outside of marriage. They just don’t believe in sex outside of bathrooms.”
Beautiful.
CONservatives expect everyone to adhere to their authoritarian rules, yet they themselves violate those rules at every opportunity.
I’m a liberal. Term phrased by Frederik Bastiat. I am pro-choice, an atheist, very active in sex outside of marriage, for legalization of all drugs.
Conservatives want things to stay the same - hence they want America to hog all the resources. They want to protect American wages by not allowing businesses to go overseas. They want to control what goes on in other people’s bedrooms.
Oly gal, do not try to tell me what I am or am not. I know my philosophy. The real conservatives are Democrats and Republicans. They want to conserve their station and control. You are one of the fooled.
It’s true, that for decades we heard from the hard left that America had X percent of the world’s population but hugged X++ percent of the world’s resources. Shame, shame! So now things are evening out but the same critics rail against globalization. Ya just can’t win.
“I’m a liberal. Term phrased by Frederik Bastiat. I am pro-choice, an atheist, very active in sex outside of marriage, for legalization of all drugs.
Conservatives want things to stay the same - hence they want America to hog all the resources.”
I’m a pessimist.
“I’m a pessimist.”
I call BS on that. Too much of a class act to be a pessimist.
“I’m a liberal. Term phrased by Frederik Bastiat. I am pro-choice, an atheist, very active in sex outside of marriage, for legalization of all drugs.”
The sad thing to me is that you seem proud of these beliefs.
I don’t “seem” to be proud of these opinions, I am proud of my opinions. They are consistent. All relationships that are formed through voluntary and mutual consent should not be prohibited in any way, or for whatever reason, whether the relationship is in business, a physical relationship, or whatever. The problem is when a Democrat or Republican third person self-righteously nominates himself as the third person in that relationship. The other two people should shoot that third person instead!
I think you are miserable for sure. Not sure about the rest the garbage you are talking about. BTW, I`m a liberal.
Lane
I am pro-choice, an atheist, very active in sex outside of marriage
Most guys who spout off about how active their sex life is, neglect to mention that a partner sure would be nice.
“The real conservatives are Democrats and Republicans. They want to conserve their station and control. You are one of the fooled.”
yes its obvious they way they throw money at failed banks for fear of losing control and then their power.
I expect socailized business which will need to be protected against foriegn competition. US will be like Mexico. Invest in the black Market
I doubt many on this blog are fooled however.
As a lawyer, I hope that gay marriage becomes accepted.
The fags will work three jobs just to make sure “that Bitch” doesn’t get the silverware.
They will be a gold-mine for lawyers.
“Most guys who spout off about how active their sex life is, neglect to mention that a partner sure would be nice.”
+100
“Most guys who spout off about how active their sex life is, neglect to mention that a partner sure would be nice.”
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha…i just can’t stop laughing…hahahahahahahaha
Married man’s envy shows blatantly.
Married Man believes that what goes on between two consenting adults in the privacy of their own bedroom, or on the kitchen floor if you’d rather, is their business. Not the blog’s. And ever since High School I’ve observed that the guys who talk the most about how much action they’re getting, usually would sleep alone in a women’s prison.
And most guys who talk about all the international action plain can’t get it at home (usually a result of their repulsive personalities) so they pay for it.
Sad.
lmao…. only you can make this stuff up.
Actually the only chance we have is to reverse the Globalism and
start producing at home and provide jobs for our Citizens . No law ever said that the highest good was to produce the cheapest labor .
Each Country has the choice to feed their people ,or feed the rich
Corporations . What did Globalism produce but a diversion of the
American people into a debt society ,while the greed of the World
wide Corporations were feeding off that contrived economy .
Without leveling out the playing field by proper taxes on imports and exports ,it only sets the stage for clever people to take advantage of the differences in wage levels and different standards of living World wide . For the Globalism supporters to act like Americans need to compete with 75 cent a hour foreign laborers is simply the wet dream of the greedy Corporations that want to pad their pockets
at the expense of the working class of America .
Whatever positive potential a Global work force had ,it was contorted by the greed machine . The spin that the American greed of a high standard of living is no longer acceptable in a huge World is a joke . It’s up to each Country to raise the level of the people in its Country ,not just take jobs from Americans and than sell their crap to Americans, while their people still remain on a low standard of living level .
Raise everyone World Wide up to a high standard of living ,not bring everyone down to a low standard of living .
+1.
If you do this, you have to get your increases in productivity from actually increasing what your current workers can do in a day by - you know - giving them better tools, or firing the HR department or something like that.
Sounds like hard work.
Oh, wait, hard work is what the senior executives are supposed to do to earn their bonuses? Silly me. I thought they did that by out sourcing (even if it totally destroys customer service) and buying other companies (even if it makes no sense and makes no money) or firing the research department.
“I thought they did that by out sourcing (even if it totally destroys customer service)”
Yes, I posted the other day about trying to deal with a very nice but completely clueless Indian fellow at Google Checkout. Truth is, these companies might as well just eliminate customer service completely if they’re going to outsource, because ultimately the person who can and will answer your question is some fellow on another site somewhere who was bright enough to figure it out and decent enough to help you out, even though he’s not getting paid and Pradeep is.
You have all these Chindians claiming they’re fluent in English. That’s not true. They might be able to mouth the words Chinese-school style, but fluency implies some understanding of what is being said. That understanding does not exist. It’s like one of those Abba songs.
I once tried to explain to a very nice young man in India that I couldn’t go to the store to get a part that was left out of my computer box (power chord for speakers)because I bought it at a big box store (BJ’s wholesale club) and there weren’t any customer service people there. He just kept repeating his script. Eventually, I figured out that I could use the one from my old computer, but it was hopeless. He either had no idea what I meant, no authority to say anything else or both.
Don’t forget the polluted disaster that China is becoming.
Remember when they had to shutdown all of the factories 2 weeks before the Olympics to clear out all of the smog?
Don’t forget the retards pushing the algore climate change hoax. The Artic ice pack is back to where it was in 1979. Next we’ll have to protect the seals from the polar bears. HEhehehehehe
So, 20 years of globalism and free trade was OK as long as it was mostly the rust belt taking it in the shorts. Now we’ve got to protect those high paying jobs on the coasts and in Colorado. Horsehockey. Everybody goes to the back of the bus. If, in 4 years you’re still making six figures, get ready to share. Ohio didnt believe the scam last November, she wont believe that tariffs will reverse the rust. Change is imminent.
Boy, ain’t that the truth?!
Perhaps Californians, Floridians, Seattleans, Las Vegans, New Yorkers and Phoenixoans(?) ought to learn how to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps instead of constantly pining for handouts from their countrymen. Illegal aliens have nothing on them.
They’re already superior to us knotheads in flyover country, right? I’d love to see them prove it.
And do so while making $50K annually in household income and the subsequent massive cuts in tax rolls. (With the exception of Las Vegans, as they are already there).
Globalization is not the problem; the Federal Reserve is by artificially depressing the price of money so that Americans pig out on cheap Chinese stuff. If interest rates were allowed to gravitate to their natural level we would attract more foreign capital to our accounts, lower our consumption of foreign goods, strengthen the dollar, and dramatically reduce the US trade imbalance. Abolish the Fed and bring back the gold standard!
BTW, most true conservative congressmen voted against the bailout. McStain was not a conservative.
Bill -
I am of like mind about everything you said here.
I, too, am a liberal in the classical sense. A shame that so many people are utterly clueless about what being “pro choice” actually entails. Today’s liberals are anything but pro choice. Rather, they are even more “group think” than any evangelical right-wing church outfit. Not that I have to tell you that.
In your quest for international women, be sure to keep an eye/ear out for those from New Zealand, Eastern Europe (notably Poles, Czechs and Hungarians - some Albanians, too) and Brazil.
Carry on, brother. I will as well. You’re not alone in the world.
I had the fortune of having had a Brazilian girlfriend before - older than me and very attractive. She was the most fun liberal woman I was with. I got a kick out of her when we were out together and she wore a t-shirt with the phrase “f**k Bush”. Then my Kuwaiti girlfriend was the most honest woman I ever met.
I have put off my plan on going down to Rio to party with the Brazilians for another year though.
Should I care, or so I just continue to cuddle up with Fang, my other ballon. She never complains unless I forget to give her another occasional whiff of hot air from the NAR!
That’s fine, Bill, what the hey. Let’s let it all break down, eh? No rule of law, let’s have it. In which case, might makes right. Let those with the biggest fists, rule.
BTW, I couldn’t care less what nationality your women are. I don’t think I ever expressed any curiosity on that matter.
1984 is now a fait accompli, when decent concepts like protecting oneself, one’s family and one’s community get twisted into a dirty word.
If it weren’t for our debt protectionism would probably stimulate the economy. People would get jobs, the cost of goods would rise, people would invest in companies that make those goods. Foreign countries would consume less so commodity prices would fall. Protectionism only hurts when you produce something that you export and you have inflation. We produce very little and we are facing deflation.
er… Hawley-Smoot Tariff. ‘Cause that worked out great.
Now, it doesn’t follow that because a tariff can intensify a deflationary spiral and all tariffs are always bad… but I do think it lets the air out of your argument above. USA was a creditor nation at that time.
So the idea of losing your job doesn’t bother you? It sounds masochistic.
Globalization: Worst idea ever?
This is like asking,
Gravity: Worst idea ever?
Let’s say I have 2 choices. I could go to Sears and buy a “made in America” hammer for $25 and it will last a lifetime. Or, I could go to Wal-Mart and buy a made in China hammer for $5… and based on my personal usage, it will last a lifetime.
How do we get everyone to buy the made in America hammer? May as well try to teach people to fly like Superman… We don’t need no stinking gravity…. I mean globalization.
Some of the most expensive stuff I ever bought came from China, like the cheap wood screws that stripped out the first time I used them. Good business model for Home Depot. So cheap, people don’t even bother coming back to return them. Smart.
Now I try to get most of my tools, nails, screws, etc. and such at the estate sales and garage sales around here.
‘Now I try to get most of my tools, nails, screws, etc. and such at the estate sales and garage sales around here.’
Me too! I LOVE that! And the sales out here are terrific! (I’m sorry, I know I’ve said that many times, and totally bragged up the sales hereabouts, but man, it’s so true, and it’s so fun.)
One of my favorite things is at some old farm estate, finding and hauling out these bizarre looking implements that some farmer guy stashed away, with contorted bits and coils and hooks hanging off them, mostly all gummed up with years of rust and neglect… I mean, what IS this thing? Huh? No one knows. Jeebus, it’s either some arcane and specific device for ritually planting pumpkin seeds on Tuesdays during March or else a serial killer’s torture device. I usually buy them on spec, in case I want to learn how to plant pumpkin seens in March or else become a serial killer.
It’s best to be prepared for all eventualities, see.
Many of the estate sales I go to in Phoenix look like pre-bank repo’s, all the appliances gone and the window blinds for sale. I don’t know but if I was going to try and sell a house I wouldn’t strip it down.
I go right to the garage to see what cool things are there like boxes of screws, nails, etc. Only once did I score and that was a legit estate sale. These pre-repo sales are pathetic.
‘Many of the estate sales I go to in Phoenix look like pre-bank repo’s, all the appliances gone and the window blinds for sale.’
Well, that’s just terrible. I mean that. *shakes head in sympathy*
You clearly need to come live in a place with quality estate sales. And then you can change your name to ’swordfern’.
And then you can change your name to ’swordfern’.
haha thats funny!! Swordfern haha
I have about 500 cactus growing in pots but I suppose I can switch to ferns !!
I’ll buy the $25 hammer at Sears every time.
I am proud to say that in 10 years I have been to Walmart no more than 6 times.
See ya in the dog food aisle as I pass that aisle to the steaks.
People who chose to buy American goods rather than go to Walmart and buy Chinese goods will have to eat dog food rather than steak? Huh?
‘See ya in the dog food aisle as I pass that aisle to the steaks.’
Yes, but will you have your incredibly attractive Kuwaiti girlfriend, or your older but incredibly attractive Brazilian girlfriend, or your fur-clad, seal-toting incredibly attractive Eskimo girlfriend heading for steaks with you? Or are you just gonna’ haul along all three?
Is what I find myself wondering here.
The point is that the foreign produced hammer would not be 5 bucks because the import taxes would make the price 15 bucks
to purchase . The point is that the foreign producer doesn’t even give enough wages to their people to buy the 5 dollar hammer for themselves .
Not only was the World pumping to much money into America ,the whole World was pumping their goods here to the point that it got difficult to even find something produced locally ,except real estate .
To think that the Corporation contrived PR about globalism has taken hold so much that people actually believe it was a noble concept . The Politicians are bought off by the the Bankers to the Corporations that benefited from
the Global wage force . Tell me ,how many Foreign Countries are out-sourcing their jobs to America ,not that many because no Country other than America is stupid enough to do such a thing .Trade between Countries is a good thing ,Corporations selling out America is another .
Olympiagal,
More like we’ll pass him up the stairs hand over hand skipping as he struggles after his third bypass.
Veggies, fruits and fish is my diet.
No meat or dairies.
-
Sorry PITA you can’t take away my grouper, yellow tail or salmon kitties.
latimesblogs.latimes.com/unleashed/2009/01/sea-kitten-peta.html
Trade between Countries is a good thing ,Corporations selling out America is another
+1
“Yes, but will you have your incredibly attractive Kuwaiti girlfriend, or your older but incredibly attractive Brazilian girlfriend, or your fur-clad, seal-toting incredibly attractive Eskimo girlfriend heading for steaks with you? Or are you just gonna’ haul along all three?
Is what I find myself wondering here.”
I’m gonna have to stop eating lunch and reading the HBB at the same time, I am spilling waay too much food.
“Yes, but will you have your incredibly attractive Kuwaiti girlfriend, or your older but incredibly attractive Brazilian girlfriend, or your fur-clad, seal-toting incredibly attractive Eskimo girlfriend heading for steaks with you? Or are you just gonna’ haul along all three?”
+1T
‘Don’t be jealous that I’ve been on-line, chatting with babes all day.’
‘Don’t be jealous that I’ve been on-line, chatting with babes all day.’
Best. Line. Ever.
‘Don’t be jealous that I’ve been on-line, chatting with babes all day.’
Yup, that’s our charming, hubris-free Bill.
Germany outsourced jobs to S. Carolina (bmw) Toyota outsourced jobs, honda etc. Some non-union areas of our country pay less than Japan and Europe. Plus the savings on shipping.
Yeah, great quality stuff coming out of china. NOT! Hey how about the chinaboard used for dry wall in houses? Great stuff and much cheaper than the stuff made in america years ago. of course the american made stuff didn’t come with firecracker odors, make people sick and corrode the electrical wiring. I go out of my way to not buy things from china. I wouldn’t let my kids have candy canes given out at parties… much of that crap came from china. I found candy canes made in PA.
Also, while it might be valid that the Unions went to far in their demands ,the balance scales have gone in the opposite direction to heading backwards to slave labor ,no benefits ,and the World going into Depression because the United States consumers couldn’t go into debt anymore and make the Corporation machine, or Foreign Country Political machine or whoever was raking in the money rich anymore.
The purpose of a economy is to benefit the most workers possible, while growing ,and the most people possible to be able to upgrade their standard of living by producing . The purpose of a economy is not to contrive a scheme that will make greedy men rich ,and than the scheme will fail and the fat cat departs to a
island to live a life of leisure . The rules of law ,proper trade balance ,regulation of business and Wall Street ,would tend to keep schemes like what is bringing the World to its knees impossible to pull off . Its great to have the opportunity to grow rich in America ,but not by Ponzi Schemes and exploiting the system ,or buying off the Politicians . Get rich the good old fashion way ,not by screwing the middle class or America .
Frozen seafood in Stater Bros, and other supermarket ads. Only 99 cents for imitation crabmeat or real scallops! Imported from
China. Used to be, would have gladly embraced this bargain. After melamine and such, no thanks!
If your job has been offshored (like, I dunno, millions of folks in this country) unless that hammer is FREE, it doesn’t matter where it’s made.
+1
globalization only works if it benefits your country. the last few years only benefited our trading partners. Trade imbalances like we had in 2005-2008, could not continue forever. eventually, all those dollars will be buying american assets! Of course a good start is to stop importing oil, i hope to see alot of progress on that with obama. i’m a little disappointed the 825 billion does not have a significant portion dedicated to slim pickens idea, and alot toward chevy volt type ideas. plugin hybrids on natural gas would be great. so time will tell if we get the change we need!
Anyone in Cali around yet? Do you really think welfare checks will get cut off? Wow, that would be truly awesome to see.
Having inside information on this subject, I’ll report back when I hear of it happening. I have a couple of family members that have made a career out of taking handouts from the state welfare programs. So far nothing has changed. Its going to get interesting when the taxpayers get iou’s instead of checks from their tax returns. We will see what happens then?
Definitely keep us posted. My money’s on tax IOUs, rather than cutting off welfare checks. Sure, take the money from the people that earned and redistribute it to those who didn’t, because god knows, those who didn’t earn would go nutz.
What the hell difference is there between that and paying tribute to a gang?
Palmetto, are you married? I think I am in love, from afar.
We could use you up here in Oregon Palmee, I know you wouldn’t like the snow but boy, you make me laugh. My dog comes over to see what is so funny so I have to explain the joke. He gets a treat and we both feel better.
Palmetto, back in the eighties in California when a budget hadn’t been decided yet a judge ordered that welfare checks HAD to be issued on-time since it is an entitlement. At CalTrans DOT, the lower paid workers received their checks, but the higher paid engineers were issued drafts since they were expected to have savings; employment is NOT an entitlement. Think of entitlements as society’s fire insurance.
As long as we keep paying people to pump out babies, then we’ll continue to have people gaming the welfare system “for the children.” Here’s where personal responsibility starts. You have unprotected sex– you get pregnant— you need to either have the financial means to raise the child yourself (this includes papa), or put out for adoption, or decide within the first couple weeks to have an abortion. The morality/religious question is on your head, between you and your maker, not the rest of us. Deal.
“Its going to get interesting when the taxpayers get iou’s instead of checks from their tax returns. We will see what happens then?”
I know a few Cali folks, all employed, but none are expecting tax refunds, or none of any notable size. If they happen to get a refund, they plan to defer it towards next years taxes, and immediately increase their number of withholdings, and defer as much taxes as they can and still avoid penalties.
It seems California can only play this card once, no?
Like most accounting tricks.
Most years we get a small refund from the Feds and owe a small amount to the state of CA, based on one income for two people and zero deductions.
Can we wait to pay CA?? -
There is no way in hell welfare will get cut. The riots would make Mogadishu safe.
And will they pay for them if they are $40 billion in the hole?
the bet is the FED will bail out CA
Too big to fail
And rather than riots we would probably see an exodus of dead beats out of Cali, seeking greener pastures elsewhere (not that they will find them).
This may be an urban legend, but supposedly back in the 1980s the city of Milwaukee came up with a scheme to offload some of their welfare parasites unto Minnesota. They took out ads in inner-city newspapers comparing welfare benefits in Milwaukee to the much more generous entitlements to be had in Minneapolis. Pretty soon busloads of freeloaders and their spawn were streaming north, much to the chagrin of the good liberal dems in Minnesota who didn’t dare imply that the new arrivals weren’t welcome.
http://www.southparkstudios.com/clips/104429/
CALIFORNIA.. REAL GOOD TO THE HOMELESS…
I’m just glad I didn’t send in my cali estimated tax last year, since I made less than half from the year before. Come and get your money Sacramento!
How does one handle that, exactly? I mean, if you don’t send it in, they come after you, don’t they? But yet, if you do send it in, you don’t get any refunds owed back.
Sheesh, they might as well hold a gun to your head.
I could get a penalty, but not jail.
And even then, that’s only because you don’t run a big bank.
If I have losses and a paltry income why should I share my poverty?
I will probably get hogtied when april comes around, but accountant says minimal penalty.
I do the same thing Ann…
I am wondering if we’ll see more poor, displaced seniors will be purposely committing minor crimes again and asking then the Judge for jail time.
Hey, being broke and hungry with nowhere to go at -30 below, those 3
hots and a cot with a little TV time would be looking pretty good in this recession
See also, “The Cop and the Anthem” by O. Henry.
http://www.literaturecollection.com/a/o_henry/32/
Thanks for the post Polly - I remember ol Soapy well.
Leigh
Palmy - if it’s like federal tax, you only have to have sent in 80% of the amount due when you file, which has to be on time. I think most state income tax returns are dependent on the federal ones having been completed first. With the size of that Cali bureaucracy, I wouldn’t be surprised if you could send in the estimated tax, minus 10%, before Apr. 15 and skate, paying the difference to the penny when you file your fed. return. That would eliminate any refund issues at the state level. Just an educated guess.
“if it’s like federal tax, you only have to have sent in 80% of the amount due when you file, which has to be on time.”
To avoid Federal Tax underpayment penalty, the number is 90% of the amount due when you file or 100% or more than your tax liability in the previous tax year.
Or 110% if your adjusted gross income is over $150,000 (for 2007, may be slightly different this year.) States vary.
RE: I’m just glad I didn’t send in my cali estimated tax last year,
I’d say you’ve come down with a case of “Geithneritis”.
I’ll take that as a compliment!
I don’t know how California can hold up tax refunds, as they’re threatening to. While I never plan to get one, a lot of innocent people made less money in Q3 and Q4 and may have overpaid their tax money.
Returning overpaid taxes aren’t an entitlement, and I think returning it should be first priority for the California government.
If they want extra tax revenue, they should audit every home equity interest deduction, and start collecting state income tax on forgiven mortgage debt. The federal government has excused it–Outrageous!–but AFAIK, CA state has not.
Hey, for a mere 33 U.S. bucks you too can be a Zimbabwe trillionaire! Gotta love fiat currency, need more just print it up! That sounds familiar. LOL!
Zimbabwe introduces $100 trillion banknote!
Zimbabwe’s central bank will introduce a $100 trillion Zimbabwean banknote, worth about US $33 on the black market, to try to ease desperate cash shortages, state-run media said on Friday.
Prices are doubling every day and food and fuel are in short supply. A cholera epidemic has killed more than 2,000 people and a deadlock between President Robert Mugabe and the opposition has put hopes of ending the crisis on hold.
Hyper-inflation has forced the central bank to continue to release new banknotes which quickly become almost worthless.
There is an official exchange rate, but most Zimbabweans resort to the informal market for currency transactions.
In addition to the Z$100 trillion dollar note, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe plans to launch Z$10 trillion, Z$20 trillion and Z$50 trillion notes, the Herald newspaper reported.
“In a move meant to ensure that the public has access to their money from banks, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe has introduced a new family of banknotes which will gradually come into circulation, starting with the Z$10 trillion,” the Herald said, citing a statement from the central bank.
Previous issues of new banknotes have done little to curb the cash crunch faced by Zimbabweans, who often line up for hours outside banks to withdraw barely enough to buy a loaf of bread.
Critics blame the economic meltdown on mismanagement by Mugabe’s government, including the seizure and redistribution of thousands of white-owned farms. The once-thriving agricultural sector has fallen into ruin.
Mugabe should stop wasting his time and come over here and run for congress. He’d fit right in. Perfectly.
Exactly right, edge. The US is close to running on a Zimbabwe model.
Speaking of Congress, anyone ever talk to one of the staffers that answers the phones for your representative? Pathetic, truly pathetic. Not all, but some are sub-literate little twits that I wouldn’t give a job handing out flyers in a parking lot. These are products of our school systems. These are the people who take your comments and supposedly transmit them to your representative. And they have NO idea what issues you’re referring to, you have to spell it for them, define it for them, etc. And, that’s a sign of what your reps think of their constituency, that they can’t bother to have personnel who at least know what the issues are. I don’t care if they’re “only” answering the phones. If they’re the ones taking the comments, they ought to be literate and they ought to know what you’re talking about.
Holy Cow. We are really in trouble. This sucker really does deserve to go down.
The people who answer the phone are almost all under the age of 25, and get to the office through daddy connections. I’ve seen them.
Probably true, but being under 25 and even having connections doesn’t mean you have to be stupid.
I mean, I don’t think twits who have know idea what you’re talking about should be taking comments from the constituents. I shudder to think how they translate those comments.
“know idea”
LMAO! that should be NO idea. Geez, here I am complaining about literacy and I pull a boner like that. My only defense is that my head is packed with snot from the flu or whatever and this makes things sort of unreal.
Palmetto:
NOT JUST CONGRESS…try your everyday fortune 500 company….everybody in HR or answering a phone is a twit today….I am begging for anyone to talk to me like an adult about my resume and a job.
Its all about Dumbing Down America and we have been Very Very Good at accomplishing that feat with our kids.
——————————————————————
Speaking of Congress, anyone ever talk to one of the staffers that answers the phones for your representative? Pathetic, truly pathetic. Not all, but some are sub-literate little twits that I wouldn’t give a job handing out flyers in a parking lot. These are products of our school systems.
‘…anyone ever talk to one of the staffers that answers the phones for your representative? Pathetic, truly pathetic. Not all, but some are sub-literate little twits that I wouldn’t give a job handing out flyers in a parking lot.’
I talk to lots of staffers and very frequently, now that our WA legislative session has convened. We have mostly decent, even some really good staffers in these here parts. I’m sorry you got all the morons down there. Maybe you should start killin’ ‘em. Or move to WA.
“I’m sorry you got all the morons down there.”
Actually the staffers on the ground in the state tend to be slightly more intelligent than the ones in DC, which are truly morons.
State legislators probably spend quite a bit more time with their home district assistants than congress critters do with their home office assistants, hence the desire for people who can put a sentence together.
I once dealt with a legislative aid who did the equivalent of asking “So, what is going on with John Smith?” without providing any additional information to let me figure out which John Smith she wanted to know about. When I asked for more info, she said she didn’t fax it over originally because she didn’t want to waste paper. Great use of time. (Please note, that since I don’t deal with individuals, it wasn’t anything to do with any John Smith anywhere in the country - just using a common name as an example.)
“NOT JUST CONGRESS…try your everyday fortune 500 company….everybody in HR or answering a phone is a twit today….”
Corporate America has me trained. I’m just so bloody grateful when I call them and get - if not an American - someone who understands English beyond “The Script”. Sad.
Haven’t had a problem with Congressional staffers. They were professional enough on the phones when I called about the $700B bailout. They ticked me off when they added me to their email list, though, even after twice voting opposite my preferences.
CPI rate of increase is currently less than zero. 4Q2008 down over 10%. Hardly close to prices doubling every day.
Not that I think this indicates long term future performance.
RE: The US is close to running on a Zimbabwe model.
Repeal of the 22nd Amendment…
O’Bama for Life!
I hear ya, hd. Jose Serrano. Figures.
You got that right, Palmetto (about the US going down the Zimbabwe path). A friend of mine who works for a private security company (at the corporate HQ level) told me that four out of five new communities built in the U.S. since 2002 have been gated communities. More and more of these are hiring private security forces. He called it “the succession of the successful,” and said, bluntly, that his clients want to put armed guards and physical barriers between themselves and the “Third World” outside their gated enclaves. I’ve traveled a lot in Latin America and saw the same phenomenom, where the wealthy, light-skinned elite self-segregated themselves from the rest of the populace and posted armed guards to keep it that way. As the economy continues to deteriorate and crime escalates, I expect these enclaves will become even more isolated from, and hostile toward, the surrounding communities.
Cities like gated communities because they don’t have to maintain the roads in there.
Didn’t the Freakanomics guy show that the crime rate in gated communities was the same as non-gated communities.
I don’t know. I do know that boredom - the hidden canker of any “utopia” - breeds antisocial behavior. I also don’t doubt that while mommy and daddy are chasing their McMansion dreams, their ignored latchkey kids might be getting into trouble.
What’s so sad is that the news about issuing a Z$100 Trillion note is NOT an article from The Onion.
Ultimately the tipping point will be reached here. Then look out!
Sounds like they’ll have to start reducing the font size to accommodate all the zeros. Can’t imagine why they bother to print the crap - the cost of printing might exceed the value of the currency by the second day of circulation. Even Burma did better than that - they simply made it legal to use US$ for all transactions.
I’d buy one, but I think I’ll wait until next week. I can get the 100T cheaper, of perhaps a mint 1Q for the same price.
I keep my own data, but my data corresponds more closely with this report from the Federal Reserve than with what is being reported in the media.
“the recession in perspective”
http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/studies/recession_perspective/index.cfm
Today I will be stripping California out of the economy for the last 10 years to see what the growth in the rest of the country has been (I suspect non growth). Then I will strip out Florida as well as California.
I will be stripping California out of the economy ??
Can’t wait to see those numbers hoz….
Hoz - really lucky timing that they posted the graph right at the month before “current” blows past “median” on the way south.
I’d love to see your findings, too, hoz. If you have the time/desire, please post. Thanks in advance.
..and Michigan. Don’t forget Michigan.
21,000 a day, if we can keep that up soon we’ll be talking some serious numbers! Nothing to worry about though, “change” is on the way!
21,000 Jobs Worldwide Erased in Day as Recession Chokes Demand
By Oshrat Carmiel
Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) — At least 21,000 jobs were targeted for elimination yesterday as employers from Hertz Global Holdings Inc. to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. grappled with recession-choked demand.
More than 20 companies said they were cutting jobs, ranging from Amonil SA, Romania’s second-biggest fertilizer maker, to Fiat SpA’s Magneti Marelli auto-parts division. Hertz, the second-largest U.S. rental-car company, said it will cut more than 4,000 jobs, as businesses and consumers slow travel because of the global recession.
“What you take away here is just how miserably profitability performed in the final quarter of ‘08,” said John Lonski, chief economist at Moody’s Capital Markets Group in New York, in an interview. “Companies cut back on staff when sales are significantly under expectation.”
About 2.1 million U.S. jobs will be lost in 2009, Lonski predicted, with 80 percent of the layoffs by the 4th of July.
“The downside risks facing the U.S. economy dwarf the upside potential that exists,” Lonski said.
WellPoint, the second-largest U.S. health insurer, will end 1,500 jobs, which include 600 workers and 900 open positions.
Clear Channel Communications Inc. will lay off 1,500 employees on Jan. 20, mostly in ad sales, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the situation. Clear Channel is the largest U.S. radio broadcaster.
ConocoPhillips, the second-largest U.S. refiner, announced after the markets closed that it plans to cut 4 percent of its workforce, or about 1,350 jobs.
Advanced Micro
Advanced Micro, the second-largest producer of personal- computer processors, said it will eliminate 1,100 jobs by the end of the first quarter.
Amonil said it will cut 45 percent of its staff, or 389 jobs, this year. Magneti Marelli will eliminate 800 jobs in Brazil, or 10 percent of its workforce there.
General Electric Co.’s finance arm may cut 7,500 to 11,000 jobs, or at least 10 percent of its workforce, because of the global financial slump, people familiar with the plans said.
“We’ll be reducing costs by $2 billion in 2009 as we discussed in November,” said Marissa Moretti, a spokeswoman for GE Capital. “Job cuts are a part of that.” She declined to say how many.
De Beers, the world’s biggest diamond company, said it will cut jobs at its six mines in South Africa, totaling “less than” 1,000 people.
Interwoven, Blue Cross
Interwoven Inc., the provider of data-management software, announced after trading hours that it would cut 70 jobs.
Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan will cut up to 1,000 jobs in 2009. Renold Plc, the maker of the chains that drive the clock in London’s Big Ben, announced 350 job reductions. WS Atkins Plc, the U.K.’s biggest engineering-design company, plans to eliminate 210 jobs at its Middle East operations.
Several manufacturers said they will operate with fewer workers. Scania AB, Sweden’s second-largest maker of heavy trucks, said it won’t renew contracts for 2,000 temporary employees to adjust production because of weaker demand.
Haynes International Inc., the manufacturer of alloys for use in aerospace and chemical processing, said it will eliminate 12 percent of its global workforce. Varian Inc., manufacturer of scientific instruments and vacuum technologies, will shed 240 jobs.
In the banking industry, Banco Santander SA, Spain’s biggest bank, eliminated 400 jobs in Brazil after buying ABN Amro Holding NV’s Banco Real unit in the country, a workers’ union said.
Harry & David Holdings, a fruit and food retailer, said it would cut more than 100 positions.
To contact the reporter on this story: Oshrat Carmiel in New York ocarmiel1@bloomberg.net.
I believe, TMJ 4 TV in Milwaukee, stated this morning that the US lost 40,000 jobs JUST on this Friday as they commented on their local Circuit City job loses.
I have no facts, details or links on that number
They missed 30,000 at Circuit City.
does anyone remember the layoffs in 2001,2002,2003…does it seem that many more companies are laying off and in every industry. even healtcare is making cuts. My bet is unemployment will go over 10%.
Okay, it’s official. Based on the Consumer Price Index for all of 2008 the cost of living rose only 0.1 percent. Since 1940 the cost of living has always increased, except for the slight dips in 1949 and 1955.
Although the the cost-of-living gain was only 0.1 percent in ‘08 Social Security recipients get a healthy 5.8 percent increase in their monthly benefits for ‘09.
it’s J6P who’s on a fixed income, if any
Being in Florida, I have to deal with retirees in the “stuff” business all the time. One of the mantras designed to cry poormouth is “I’m on a fixed income”. To which I like to reply “That’s awesome! Then you can afford to buy something! Most aren’t lucky enough to have a fixed income like you these days.”
Palmy - that’s a good - and accurate - response these days. What goes around comes around, finally.
Exactly, Chip. I take it you’ve heard that mantra, it’s sort of a pet expression of the retirees (while drooling a little bit of breakfast special gravy for emphasis).
Yep. A lot.
My point exactly. Seniors glommed onto that phrase back in the early 70s and haven’t let up since. I even asked a guy with a nice military retirement + SS, but don’t you get a COLA increase every year? I mean, that’s not “fixed” is it?
I haven’t had a raise in 6 years so I’m the one on a fixed income.
Or if you really wanted to get their ire, you could point out that their “fixed income” gave them nearly a 6% raise which is a heck of a lot more than most who are still working can get or even ask for.
+1
For far longer than the years my wife and I have been drawing SS, the govt has purposely understated inflation each year to minimize increases in the various “entitlement” payments. Not complaining, mind you.
For SS at least, they apparently peg the coming year’s increase on CPI changes just for the third quarter of the current year. In 2008, that’s when oil and other prices were going through the roof.
I think that the “fixed income” BS comes from an earlier time when most middle class Americans were paid by the hour, and if you needed some extra dough you could work over time.
Most of these codgers have no clue as to what working stiffs face today, such as zero job security and lots of unpaid overtime. I recall back in 2001 shortly after I had been laid off. I was chatting with an elderly gentleman and telling him of my situation. He asked “how soon do you think they will call you back to work”. I explained to him that in today’s world layoffs were permanent and were not furloughs like they were in his day. He was visibly shocked after I told him this.
Most of these “fixed income” whiners are going to draw far more from social security, medicare, etc., than they ever paid in during their lifetimes. Plus, the AARP can mobilize the massive geezer bloc vote to force Congress to pander to their every demand, while relentlessly screwing over the younger generations that are being forced to pick up the tab.
well, that’s why we pay the inflation tax, Clinton and Greedspan’s “Final Solution” for the unsustainable social insecurity problem…
let’s face it, it’s welfare for oldsters, it should be administered as such. No more screwing marginal hourly workers whose employers cheated on their taxes while giving thousands to professional workers who should have had substantial savings.
If you have the assets, no checky. If you don’t, you’re on the dole, but it sucks.
I would also like to point out here that so many of our burgeoning healthcare costs are due to lifestyle, but one aspect of lifestyle is profession. We need to provide an incentive to people to stop smoking, overeating, and laying around, while not punishing miners, cdl drivers, farmers, graveyard shift health workers, and others in hazardous professions which are proven to cause cardiovascular, etc, problems over time.
True.
I have a friend, David, who was forced into early retirement in 2001. A worker for a quasi-government agency that gets state worker benefits. Has a pension of $2000 per month from CALPERS and guaranteed health care for life. Not a whole lot of room for fluff, but his expenses are low and if CALPERS goes down, the sh!t’s over for everyone. House almost fully paid for, with mortgage payment from the 1970s.
Even though he feels like he’s poor, he’s in a position that a lot of people will envy in the years to come.
“Social Security recipients get a healthy 5.8 percent increase in their monthly benefits for ‘09.”
Not all, a neighbor on my floor is getting $1 more a month because the feds say he makes too much and thus has to contribute more to Medicare.
I’m taking his story as a warning.
“I’m taking his story as a warning.”
So Am I. The message I am getting is to plan on never retiring.
IMO, means testing is going to be the solution to the entitlement problem (SS & Medicare).It will just be another way to tax the “rich”.How it will be implemented is the question…Based on income ?? Based on assets ?? There are going to be a lot of fifty something people that are going to be pissed !!
Means testing just punishes those who work hard, save and make the right choices in life. If your are telling me the folks who buy a new car every two years and trips to Hawaii are rewarded and savers and producers like me are punished I then will just join the crowd.
How is SS and Medicare an “entitlement” considering the fact that I contributed to it? SS is an INSURANCE pool and should be administered as such. If you don’t NEED it then you shouldn’t be benefitting from it.
punishes those who work hard, save and make the right choices in life ??
So whats fricken new ?? I have been paying in for 40 years and I fully expect to be means tested for the benefits…I am planning on it…I was not suggesting it was “fair”.. I was offering the concept that I believe it will happen because it is a politically easy way that they can make both systems solvent…The alternative is to raise EVERYONES taxes…
If you don’t NEED it then you shouldn’t be benefitting from it ??
Excuse me !! Then lets just call it welfare… Benefiting from something that I paid for has nothing to do with NEED…
“Excuse me !! Then lets just call it welfare… Benefiting from something that I paid for has nothing to do with NEED…”
So you expect a refund on your auto insurance, homeowners insurance and health insurance too?
Insurance is a choice…Your insurance analogy doesn’t hunt…
actually, AFLAC does give me a “wellness” benefit every year I don’t file a claim.
most car insurance also gives discounts for not filing claims
what if you make the right choices and get hit with something out of your control (harassing lawsuit, health problems, evil spouse/child) and lose it all? should you starve?
if we want to encourage saving, the only fair tax is a consumption tax. And no exempted categories. See no reason to subsidize ho-ho’s and gasoline. What is wrong with the poor growing their own vegetables, seriously?
Insurance is a choice? Since when?
Basic home owners and auto insurance are mandated by law in most states and required universally by lenders.
While insurance may not be a choice, I do have a choice of insurance companies…
The Feds and Social Security give none of us a choice. We are forcibly made to pay them (and no one else), or face jail time.
That’s not an insurance program. It’s extortion.
Speaking for myself, given that I was both legally mandated to give my money to old people in the form of “insurance” AND had the opportunity to decide who the recipient of my “insurance” would be, I’d give my elderly relatives cash out of my own pocket.
But I don’t have that choice, do I? Insurance companies have the opportunity to decide who they want to insure. Why shouldn’t I, if I’m the insurer?
Answer: Because none of the Feds’ Social Welfare Programs (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc.) are a form of insurance. Each is an extortion program.
“Each is an extortion program.”
Merely your opinion. As with all other things, everybody has one but at the end of the day, the fact is SS and medicare are insurance pools.
Check the laws, pal.
Here in Texas you are not required by law to have homeowner’s insurance, although your mortgage company will require it IF you have an outstanding loan.
Also, we are not required to have auto insurance. Rather we are required to have proof of financial responsibility…and that can be $50k in a secured bond.
Bottom line, insurance is optional but is generally the smart way to go.
If you have no mortgage in California, there is no requirement for flood, fire, landlord’s or homeowner’s insurance, as far as I know. However, you do still get to pick the provider.
That’s my plan, and my sister’s. Seriously, we agree we’d be bored doing nothing and not associating with other professionals.
At best, I can imagine taking 4 weeks off per year. Maybe will work at Wal-Mart in my 70s!
I agree Bill although I will take more time off than 4 weeks…Wife and I are on a “take 4 days off somewhere” per month mission right now…We have been doing it for 6 months now and we are having a blast…We leave Monday…Heading for the International Homebuilders show in Las Vegas….We enjoy looking at all the new stuff from the vendors…
“I’m taking his story as a warning.”
“So Am I. The message I am getting is to plan on never retiring.”
Exactly, Combo. It’s precisely why I decided to go into teaching after 20 years in corporate land. If I’m going to have to pay for the boundless hedonism of my elders (those born before 1954 or so), by working until I’m 75, then I’m taking summers off.
Gotta play while you can, guys. Minimize the crush of the Great Social Ponzi Scheme as best you can.
then I’m taking summers off. Gotta play while you can, guys ??
Eudemon…Good for you !! Exactly why I encouraged my daughter to become a teacher…
means testing will happen and they will lift the cap on contibutions and increase retirement age. thats just how it is going to be…if you have any other retirement program you will not be getting SS even though you paid. not fair, yes, but then alot of stuff happening lately is not fair.
BP-
That’s precisely what scdave is saying.
Note, too, that some reps out in California recently floated the idea of seizing everyone’s 401Ks to fund Social Security.
How’s that grab ya?
Well done edgewater. Truth trumps again.
Sorry Exeter, but the fact that your expenses went up too (that is what losing a discounted rate is), doesn’t mean you didn’t get an increase. Now this situation is a little more complicated because of the interaction of the different programs, but in general, when people get increases in income, it goes along with increases in expenses. For example, I’m getting a pay increase this year, but the following expenses have gone up simultaneously or nearly so - medical insurance costs, rent and cable bill. Taxes too, but that will always happen in an income tax system absent a tax cut.
Again remember the portion dealing with housing uses rent equivalents. Take that out and replace it with cost of housing and you have deflation.
Measton - how do you figure the PTB and pontificators will handle the numbers a year from now, if average rents have also declined? Rents are dropping significantly in Central Florida and I’d think there is pressure almost everywhere so that the average for the year will be down. Do you think they’ll ever admit to deflation and the possibility of Japan-R-Us?
Measton - how do you figure the PTB and pontificators will handle the numbers a year from now, if average rents have also declined?
Well I’m assuming they already know what’s happening so I imagine they will handle it the same way they are now. By printing a boatload of cash and pushing it into as many channels as possible with most of it going to campaign donors / the elite.
“5.8 percent increase”
Probably based on 2007 CPI, which we know was BS. Fixed income has been shrinking income for 50 years. Watched two generations of elders reduced to stark frugality in my family, with the death by a thousand cuts that is perpetual inflation.
We’re up next!
We’re up next ??
Yep…And its going to be ugly ..Edgewater is correct…Take it as a warning…
Skye - “Fixed income has been shrinking income for 50 years.”
No doubt that’s accurate, when true inflation is considered. But is it not also true for “non-fixed” incomes as well? The simplest example would be previous generations, when there usually was one wage-earner in the household and Mom stayed home. The lifestyles and debt levels today with two earners does not seem to be better, particularly if you factor out the improvements that are due solely to technological innovation and mechanization rather than extra labor.
Yes of course, but it didn’t really hurt me while my wages were ramping up faster than inflation (boy that was a long time ago). Actually inflation advanced me because I had no savings, only debt. I started accumulating savings and downsizing about the time that my income flattened, so I had a comfy glide path. My grandmother had a narrow glide path that started at modest widowhood and lasted 44 years. Lucky for her, she was from 1900 Scotland, house paid off and had two kids helping.
I watched my grandmother scared sh*tless if she even charged her credit card for her registration and she was living on a fixed income. She was afraid the government would take away the money she was getting. Everytime she got an adjustment her medical insurance just happened to go up also. The same thing is now happening to my mom. She worked her ass off and now is collecting social security. She received her adjusment and her medical insurance has gone up. Not every senior citizen is filthy rich from social security. For some it’s all they have.
And if they supplement their SS with savings interest their income has been drastically reduced in the last two years. In one pocket, out the other.
This senior bashing is uncalled for. I’ve paid max FICA for 26 years. In ten years I hope to collect, but I won’t bash my seniors, if I don’t. Bash the phony SS disability, if you must.
One effect of Satyam showed up immediately - good bye India
Fixed Income trading in India has dropped by more than 45%.
It will be very hard for Indian companies to secure financing.
You have a grip on the real reason?
I’d suspect that it is because no one trusts the numbers that any other company is reporting because the accountants signed off on fake numbers so audited numbers are no longer considered any sort of guarantee, but that is just a guess. Is there anything “deeper” going on?
Not to my knowledge. Just that nobody I know wants to participate in India. Risk is to great. Usually with great risk comes great rewards, but in this case it is at best no better than investing in Vietnam.
Housing market in N.H. sees worst decline in a decade
“…median home prices, which had remained relatively stable in the two prior years, were not immune to the difficult economic times, with the statewide median selling price in 2008 at $235,000, a 10 percent decrease from the $260,800 in 2007.”
There’s beautiful countryside in NH. Not only that, but the most individualistic people in the U.S. - meaning, not wussified.
As long as you can stand the long, cold winters. I can’t.
Bangor Daily News 1/17/09
“There were unofficial reports of temperatures plummeting to 50 below zero in Big Black River in the northwest corner of the state, and as low as 56 below in the St. John Valley”.
There’s beautiful countryside in NH. Not only that, but the most individualistic people in the U.S. - meaning, not wussified.
Beautiful countryside. People, not so much. Cheap bastards who want people in other states to pay for their transportation and schools. People who have taken “Not Invented Here” and elevated it to a religion. People so mulish and ill-bred they think that another 1000sqft of house for the money and some lumpy, rocky “land” is worth a commute of 50 minutes each way, 251 days a year, for the rest of their working lives.
£200bn to save banks from bad debt
The taxpayer will be forced to underwrite up to £200 billion of bad banking debt under a government plan to take control of assets belonging to Britain’s major high street lenders, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.
By Katherine Griffiths and Andrew Porter
Last Updated: 1:36PM GMT 17 Jan 2009
“…The total sum is equivalent to more than two-thirds of Britain’s annual GDP of £1.4 trillion. …”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/4274083/200bn-to-save-banks-from-bad-debt.html
The US is a piker, we aren’t close to 2/3rds of GDP we’re only at 38%
http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/01/time-to-take-the-banks-into-full-public-ownership/
care to comment on the Willem Buiter’s piece about Nationalizing High Street Banks?
from the fascist article:
“In addition, full public ownership of the banks would greatly facilitate the creation of a ‘bad bank’ that would hold on its balance sheet all the toxic assets (illiquid assets of highly uncertain value) currently held by the high street banks. The key problem with any bad bank proposal is the price it pays for the toxic assets it acquires from the banks. If all the banks, and the bad bank, are publicly owned, this problem goes away. The toxic assets are simply moved to the balance sheet of the bad bank. They could be valued at anything from zero to their notional value or historic cost (or even higher). It would be a redistribution of wealth from one state-owned entity to another state-owned entity.”
God save the Queen.
State intervention in economic production arises only when private initiative is lacking or insufficient, or when the political interests of the State are involved. This intervention may take the form of control, assistance or direct management. (pp. 135-136)
—Benito Mussolini, 1935, “Fascism: Doctrine and Institutions”, Rome: ‘Ardita’ Publishers
—–
When a wunch of English bankers gulp down bitch piss and advertise on the wind-in-kite, porridge wogs begin burning pictures of the queen as US Johnny-no-stars goes thieving harry-big-buttons.
So kick back with a Melvin brag, have a tower of kryptonite and watch as the swamp donkeys drop the airplane skirts and sword fight for a loan.
excuse me, I have to go see a brown friend at the coast.
?
translates as: vozzie’s pissed off and sending up the limeys.
Sounds like a Dennis Miller monologue!
“…It is not true that individuals possess a prescriptive ‘natural liberty’ in their economic activities. There is no ‘compact’ conferring perpetual rights on those who Have or on those who Acquire. The world is not so governed from above that private and social interest always coincide. It is not so managed here below that in practice they coincide. It is not a correct deduction from the principles of economics that enlightened self-interest always operates in the public interest. Nor is it true that self-interest generally is enlightened; more often individuals acting separately to promote their own ends are too ignorant or too weak to attain even these. Experience does not show that individuals, when they make up a social unit, are always less clear-sighted than when they act separately. We cannot therefore settle on abstract grounds, but must handle on its merits in detail what Burke termed “one of the finest problems in legislation, namely, to determine what the State ought to take upon itself to direct by the public wisdom, and what it ought to leave, with as little interference as possible, to individual exertion”…
Mr. John Maynard Keynes
and
from Mr. Milton Friedman (1972), “Comment on the Critics,” Journal of Political Economy 80:5 (September-October), pp. 914-5
“I do not share the widespread view that a tax increase which is not matched by higher government spending will necessarily have a strong braking effect on the economy.
True, higher taxes would leave taxpayers less to spend. But this is only part of the story. If government spending were unchanged, more of it would now be financed by the higher taxes, and the government would have to borrow less. The individuals, banks, corporations or other lenders from whom the government would have borrowed now have more left to spend or to lend-and this extra amount is precisely equal to the reduction in the amount available to them and others as taxpayers. If they spend it themselves, this directly offsets any reduction in spending by taxpayers. If they lend it to business enterprises or private individuals–as they can by accepting a lower interest rate for the loans the resulting increase in business investment, expenditures on residential building and so on indirectly offsets any reduction in spending by taxpayers.
To find any net effect on private spending, one must look farther beneath the surface. Lower interest rates make it less expensive for people to hold cash. Hence, some of the funds not borrowed by the Federal government may be added to idle cash balances rather than spent or loaned. In addition, it takes time for borrowers and lenders to adjust to reduced government borrowing. However, any net decrease in spending from these sources is certain to be temporary and likely to be minor.
To have a significant impact on the economy, a tax increase must somehow affect monetary policy–the quantity of money and its rate of growth. (Newsweek, January 23, 1967, p. 86)….
Why “certain to be temporary”? Because the leftward shift in the IS curve is a once-for-all shift…. Put in monetarist terms, the lowered interest rate resulting from the federal government’s absorbing a smaller share of annual savings will reduce velocity; the transition to the lower velocity reduces spending for a given money stock….
Why “likely to be minor”? Because the monetarist view is that “saving” and “investment” have to be interpreted much more broadly… that the categories of spending affected by changes in interest rates are far broader than the business capital formation, housing construction, and inventory accumulation to which the neo- Keynesians tend to restrict “investment.” Hence, even a fairly substantial tax increase will produce only a minor shift in the IS curve….
Of course, the terms “temporary” and “minor” are highly imprecise. We get closer to a rigorous statement by comparing the changes resulting from a reduced or increased deficit without any change in monetary growth with those that result when a change in the deficit is matched by a dollar-for-dollar change in monetary growth…. [A] deficit financed by borrowing… [is] a once-for-all shift to the right in the IS curve, a higher interest rate, a higher velocity, and a higher level of spending for a given monetary growth path…. [F]inancing the deficit by creating money… shifts the LM curve to the right…. But this is not a once-for-all shift. So long as the deficit continues, and continues to be financed by creating money, the nominal money stock continues to grow and the LM curve (at initial prices) continues to move to the right. Is there any doubt that this effect must swamp the effect of the once-for-all shift of the IS curve?…
We may put this point differently. Assume a one-year increase in the deficit, with the budget then returning to its initial position. If this is financed by borrowing from the public with no change in monetary growth, then, in the most rigid Keynesian system, the IS curve moves to the right and then back again; real and nominal income rise for one year, then return to their initial values. If the one-year increase in the deficit is financed by creating money, the LM curve moves to the right as well, and stays there after the IS curve returns to its initial position. If prices remain constant, real and nominal income stay at a higher level indefinitely. If, as is more reasonable, prices ultimately rise, real income may return to its initial level, but nominal income will stay at a higher level indefinitely. Surely, to paraphrase a remark of Tobin’s in another connection, the monetary effect is “alchemy of a much deeper significance” than the fiscal effect…”
But I like Vozzie’s explanation better.
gawd that wonkish bullshit grates on me sometimes…
ya see, Im just a pig-ignorant-yokel.
So are you going to pick up rocks in your sheep infested hills and sell them on EBay as Native American Arrowheads? Pick up a few extra bucks for Mrs Vozzie. You can’t fish, why should anyone think you knew how to make arrowheads?
C’mon it would be great. You wouldn’t be telling a lie.
harumph,
go get your goverment milk-money subsidy check and cash it in on seeds. Im sure your boys are anxiously awaiting what yer gonna tell ‘em to plant.
You wouldnt set those boys down a path of broken dreams would ya?
after hoz, the deluge…
Wow - the Dennis Miller comment is dead-on! I read the Voz/Hoz comments with the same head shaking questions I had while watching Monday Night football a few years back.
What the F are they talking about?
Milton and Rose rock!!
From Forbes article published on yahoo trying to identify careers ppl should seriously look into to make huge bank if they don’t want to have to learn anything or invest in an education:
“Jobs That Can Earn More Than $100,000 Without College
#1. Real Estate Broker
90th Percentile Income: $187,000
75th Percentile Income: $151,000
Only two jobs on this list have a six-figure median wage. This is one of them. Although you have to get a license, you need only be a high school graduate and at least 18 years old to apply for one, and you have to pass a written test.”
Just what we need - more mortgage brokers with no knowledge of finance or economics, but an ability to sell anything to anyone to maximize commissions. Hopefully we can get those numbers down by at least 50%. They may already be there.
“…if they don’t want to have to learn anything or invest in an education”
This is a bit of a contradictory statement, as I’m sure we all know plenty of people who invested in education but didn’t actually want to learn anything.
Just ask pretty much any MBA grad.
I would estimate that a huge percentgage of those enrolled in MBA programs did so because they heard investment bankers were rolling in cash. It will be interesting to see how enrollment numbers change as the number of available positions dwindles.
On the way up it was sad to see so many brilliant ppl I know who understood exactly what was happening and how it would end, and spoke out about it, fired or held back as being “unproductive deal killers”; while those with little or no knowledge of the risk, or a complete disregard therefor, pushing huge volumes of crap to unsophisticated marks advanced to superstardom.
I wonder if the crash will change anything. I doubt it.
Yeah, this is at least the second MBA-bust I’ve lived through.
I seem to recall how the republicans were ALL promoting Bush as their brilliant, well educated MBA President-elect.
You’d THINK that is professors from Harvard and Yale would ALL be hiding their faces in “undisclosed locations” along with Cheney
JD degrees also. Five or six years ago I’d see a dozen applications from law school students for one or two summer positions as interns. Form letter response informing them position was unpaid thinned out applicants to two or three. Applications for summers of ‘08 and ‘09 started rolling in the preceding falls, though, and fact the position is pro bono hasn’t dissuaded a one. When applicants are told there’s enough work to occupy them just for two, two and one-half days per week, almost all indicate they are ready, willing and able to do five days with no pay. I guess alternative options have dried up.
We dumped our Summer program this year. I really dont see the need to cater to anyone looking for a $140k year starting salary with no experience. They, like many others, kept pushing for higher salaries during the good times not realizing it meant many wont get to keep their job during the bad times.
Most extreme case was applicant who’d actually been admitted to practice. He had done one or two internships during previous summers similar to the one for which he was applying. I had to break the news to him that he was out of the running. Guy had meltdown on the phone; said he couldn’t believe any others were better qualified, more experienced. Demanded to know, “Why? Yes. Why? You tell me why I’m not getting the position.” I hesitated about six to ten seconds, toned down my voice, and answered, “Dude, it’s time to give someone else a turn.” I didn’t want to make him cry, but I think he was as he abruptly ended the call.
Dear God, I do not know how I never internalized that GWB had an MBA, as I have. I guess we are minimally qualified to work at Wal-Mart, just not where they sell guns!
“On the way up it was sad to see so many brilliant ppl I know who understood exactly what was happening and how it would end, and spoke out about it, fired or held back as being “unproductive deal killers”
Happened to a relative of mine, exactly that way. He recovered, but it sucked for a long time. I hope the jerks who were on the dark side of the equation are in the soup lines.
This is par for the course in practically every profession.
Thoughtful introspection always gets trumped by the rah-rah crowd.
Before the bust, it was all, “you don’t know what you’re talking about. it’s a new paradigm”. Now it’s all “how did you know? can we take you to dinner?”
I’ve seen more than my share of the financial boom-bust cycles.
How many people clamored here last year about a commodities bubble? And how many were yelled down by the hyperinflationist new-paradigm crowd?
They never learn.
“This is par for the course in practically every profession.”
“Thoughtful introspection always gets trumped by the rah-rah crowd.”
Soon to be the president elect and his followers.
“How many people clamored here last year about a commodities bubble? And how many were yelled down by the hyperinflationist new-paradigm crowd?”
yea I got nicked on that one
those peak oil loonies on the market ticker forums were a hoot.
even if we’re in peak oil (some geologists think so), that doesn’t mean that the price goes vertical.
peak whale oil.
peak ivory.
peak buggy whips.
RE: Just what we need - more mortgage brokers with no knowledge of finance or economics, but an ability to sell anything to anyone to maximize commissions
What the real estate system really needs is the existence of an independant “housing counselor/consultant” whose job it is, to inform buyer’s that a Realtwhore*; mortgage originator; or lender selected appraiser, is NOT working in your self-interest and that you better be reading the fine print on ANY piece of paper relevant to purchase.
BECAUSE IT”S ALL ABOUT THE COMMISSION AND NOTHING ELSE!
Not gonna happen for many reason because RE is about good old fashioned “horse trading.”
#1. Real Estate Broker
90th Percentile Income: $187,000
75th Percentile Income: $151,000
How to Lie with Statistics 101 - use old numbers even though an inflection point has already gone past….
As for mortgage brokers? They may have known about finance and family budgets and that sort of stuff at one time. Past few years? I’d put them several notches below sales reps at “buy to own” stores.
I posted earlier in the week that the number of licensed mortgage brokers in Florida is less than half of the number 12 months ago. Been waiting for a Florida post to put up a bid deal about PMI that I found in print but not online.
Jobs That Can Earn More Than $100,000 Without College…#1. Real Estate Broker ??
3% of the realtor’s make 90% of the money…
“Mission Failure” ??
Another Hedgie goes missing, as do his clients millions…
heraldtribune.com/article/20090116/BREAKING/901160241/2055/NEWS?Title=Fund_manager_gone_and_possibly__350_million_with_him
Hmmmm, the new year has brought a sudden spate of suicides and flights. Don’t these people know it’s all going to turn around in 2009?
The new year’s cheer leading was all for second half of 2008 for the turn around. Don’t be a gloomy gus!
Yeah, that was on the news last night. I think all this is very revealing of the “hedge fund” business. Cowards, bullies and shysters. Anyone stupid enough to put their money with a hedge fund, knowing how managers are compensated, deserves to lose every penny, IMO.
“Where are the customers’ yachts?”
The uncle of my friend’s wife is a hedgie somewhere in CT. At a Christmas gathering that uncle told my friend that in ‘08 he lost a cool $700 MM.
That explains why this year’s gathering was in CT, as opposed to the prior year’s - which was at some uber exclusive resort in the DR.
In the 60’s we had Bernie Cornfeld and Robert Vesco. Same old story; different names.
My god! There’s some names I haven’t heard in ages!
Another Rochester denial article, full of contradictions and idjit quotes:
democratandchronicle.com/article/20090117/BUSINESS/901170323&referrer=NEWSFRONTCAROUSEL?GID=GBjbh+xst+n/QEpumELR0HnjMQ+ntLquPdtxByHnIuQ%3D
http://tinyurl.com/9t75wm
Check the graph. These people are fools. Look at all the people that tested the summer waters.
“…Now one thing I am not making up is I am sitting in JFK trying to write this using a wi-fi signal that just keeps coming and going. So what are my observations so far? Well, I am pleased to say that the Americans are hiding their woes very well and every where I went they were jolly and cheerful. I even ventured into a Starbucks and chatted to some homeless Investment Bankers clinging onto used cups and warming their cold hands. They couldn’t have been happier to talk to me. I did however lose my Rolex Daytona, but thankfully this is insured by one of the banks the banker who was looking at the watch, worked for. Payback time I guess. And in any case, who wants to dress like a rich dick? The new black is to look poor…”
Fintag
“The new black is to look poor…”
LMAO! What’s old is new again.
homeless investment bankers stole your watch at starbucks ?
Thats werid but maybe I am being too literal in deciphering your story ?
I just use the clock on my cell phone. Yes I would think it could be fatal to look rich these days.
Much easier to rob a private citizen in their house than hit a hardened target like a bank.
Lot’s of people have robbed banks recently, and with no more than a pen!
The comments are quite clearly from a spoof site.
Faster you should know Fintag! He is making the watch up - he is a serious trader.
Yeah, I read that stuff daily.
And I thought “fintag” was how you say goodbye in the upper midwest ?
Like a cactus I am kinda slow
It’s a daily financial roundup blog for traders with commentary that is totally steeped in acid.
Naturally, that fits me.
Did anyone see that ABC special “What You’re Worth” last night? How awful is that Denver TV guy’s wife?? Aw, man, take that plastic piece of junk out back and shoot her! He looked so happy as a vet tech and seemed excited to be downsizing, while she’s crying about losing the mountain home and blah blah blah. And, the horror, she has to get a job now! Waa.
It also hinted at the higher ed. bubble. They interviewed a bunch of people that were angry about getting worthless degrees. I guess those people don’t see the irony.
ABC? ABC? I was watching Battlestar Gallactica from the moment I got home until the new episode was over. Some things are important!
Me too.
Whoda thunk that …. was a Cylon?!?!?
But if [he/she] is the last of the final five, why is [other person] still alive even with what they found on the planet?
I’m horrendously confused.
But it was a good plot twist. Actually there were several good plot twists. I’m kind of glad that they wrote this knowing absolutely that it was the last season. I think it makes for much better writing.
polly said:
But if [he/she] is the last of the final five, why is [other person] still alive even with what they found on the planet?
Me too - I’d had my doubts about … especially after what was found on the planet.
As for … that was a complete surprise to me - maybe wishful thinking on the part of their partner?
‘I’m kind of glad that they wrote this knowing absolutely that it was the last season. I think it makes for much better writing.’
Well, I dunno…I’m very conflicted on that. I will be very sad when it’s all over and will probably cry a lot and make myself a viper pilot helmet from paper mache and become one of those Comicon-type nutters. But it’s true—you really cannot maintain this sort quality for too long or even try to, or it starts to falter and fade.
Thank you guys for not spoiling! I don’t have a TV, but I do have a computer (duh), so I’m behind by a season. I think that 4 just came out on Netflix, but there’s a long wait.
One of my favorite Halloween costumes was a Cylon (old-school, obviously).
No spoiling. I thought about it for a split second and completely rejected it. I got standards….
Polly - think back to the medical experiments performed on that person back on New Caprica and/or it might mean Count Iblis from the first series will make an appearance soon.
OMG,
I was sleepy, until I started watching the show. My heart didn’t stop pounding until it was over. This is the best sci fi show ever (well I still have a place in my heart for Babylon 5 and Deep Space Nine).
All of the show had twists. One I didn’t see coming. She is not a Cylon. The other one is.
skroodle, thank you for the reminder. That would explain what happened.
Best sci fi show has to be Firefly, unfortunately fox killed it after only 12 episodes. If yall have never seen it go buy it & the Serenity film now - don’t rent or netflix you will want to own it.
Totally agree - then again I’ve always liked Whedon’s stuff.
IIRC that was the year when Fox decided to can it - in favour of the truly awful ‘John Doe’ - which didn’t get picked up for a 3rd season. Another fine decision by Faux
My wild guess. There is some other resurection hub nearby. AND, it resurects humans tooo… since basically, this is saying there is very little difference between humans and the cylon skin-jobs (just differnt tribes from Cobol).
The lady that killed herself…. oh, I think she’s coming back too.
I think there are a TON of loose ends to wrap up in the last 9 episodes.
I think it will turn out to be a cross between Frankenstein and Noah’s Ark. We get too technologically advanced, and it all has to be washed away in a nuke war, then we start over.
Brining this back on topic to this site. Replace economic innovations as the cylons. Eventually they’ll get so powerful, they’ll attack us. At which time we need to nuke them, fall back to barter system, and start over. Repeat.
‘ABC? ABC? I was watching Battlestar Gallactica from the moment I got home until the new episode was over. Some things are important!’
Hahaha! Me too! I was glued to the teevee. I even set up a little spray-mister by the couch so’s I could humidify my eyeballs when they got parched—I didn’t want to blink and miss frakin’ ANYTHING.
I have to say that was the darkest episode I have ever seen on tv. The Day After (nuclear war story in the 80s) was a light story compared to last night’s episode. I am more confused about the plot than ever.
2nd attempt to post -
http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/studies/recession_perspective/index.cfm
The Recession in Perspective
nice graphs
Just received this in my inbox. I used to deal in some of this stuff:
“Replacements, Ltd.
China, Crystal, Silver, Collectibles - Old & New
Update Regarding Recent Turmoil in the Tableware Market
Hello from Replacements, Ltd! Since you’ve previously indicated to us an interest in fine tableware and collectibles, we wanted to send this special update related to recent news in the tableware industry.
Based on the calls we are receiving, you have probably seen in the news that there has been recent turmoil in the tableware industry, with many famous brands filing in bankruptcy or operating in insolvency, including divisions of Waterford Wedgwood, Johnson Brothers, Franciscan, Royal Doulton, Royal Albert, Rosenthal, Hutschenreuther, Tirschenreuth, Lenox, Dansk, Gorham Stainless, Royal Worcester, and Spode. You may have also heard that Lenox is closing a select number of their outlets, Oneida the majority of theirs, and Fitz & Floyd and Pfaltzgraff all of theirs.
If you own patterns by these makers, or others who may also be struggling, now is a good time to check stock with us and get the pieces you need while our selection is at its best.
Once your order is placed, we’ll get your pieces to you quickly, and you can be assured of having everything you need to enjoy life’s special occasions to their fullest for years to come.
We carry fine china, casual china, crystal, glassware, silver, silverplate, stainless, and collectibles. In fact, we carry more than 13,000,000 pieces in 300,000 patterns by over 3,000 makers, some more than 100 years old! Order now while our selection is at its best!
Ordering the pieces you need is easy; you can start now by clicking your pattern link(s) below:”
I once bought some piddly replacement from them, and now they are spamming me almost daily now.
If things are so good, why all the advertising?
Clearly, things are going to get worse.
Levenger’s e-mails are starting to sound a little shrill these days too.
What’cha wanna bet that Replacements is getting a lot more inquiries from people who need to get some cash for their silver and china.
A few weeks ago a china company declared bankruptcty. Can’t remember which one.
One in Ireland, perhaps??
“you have probably seen in the news that there has been recent turmoil in the tableware industry”
LMFAO! That really reads like an Onion headline.
I do, however, support a spork-maker bailout.
The funny thing about it is, they’re actually serious. And supposedly, people are concerned they’ll not be able to find pieces of their favorite patterns.
Frankly, this economic downturn is a godsend to the future of the “stuff” business, which responds to supply and demand.
Palmy - I wonder if they’re worried that once people stop buying new sets, because they’re out of production and/or increasingly out of fashion according to my kids, the demand for replacement pieces will drop off a cliff? We have two full sets of dinner-size sterling that none of our kids has any interest in (unless they could sell it
).
Chip, one of the biggest worries in the “stuff” business is that we’re losing future generations of collectors. It’s true, too. Some of the old “stuff” is exquisitely made, functional works of art in some cases.
A lot of the young guys these days don’t understand, for example, the value of an antique piece of jewelry for the ladies. Why? Because their ladies would rather have a piece of faux white bling made by Beyonce.
My parents have all this cr@pola. They never use it.
Why not? Because it might break.
Hoo-kay then! Fat lot of good this stuff is doing you.
So I insisted they pull it all out when I cooked for them, and they enjoyed it. And it’s never been out since.
SIGH.
At least, in my house I don’t throw a snitch if a guest breaks a glass or a wine glass by accident. Stuff happens.
‘Some of the old “stuff” is exquisitely made, functional works of art in some cases.’
I have thought about this subject a lot. As I just mentioned to an earlier post of yours about tools and nuts and bolts, palmy, the yard and estate sales here in Olympia are SUPER. Anyway, it happens again and again, I’ll be standing there holding in my hands an absolutely beautiful hand embroidered tablecloth, matching napkins, or pillowcases with exquisite handmade lace, just utterly wonderful things that someone’s grandma spent a zillion hours on, and that then got put away because ‘they were too good to use’. And now here they are, being sold at an estate sale to a stranger, for a buck. It’s..it’s…it’s…I don’t know WHAT it is… Sacrilege? Tragedy? Wasteful? Those aren’t exactly the right words. I don’t have the right word. Maybe there’s a German word for it.
It sure makes me sad, sometimes.
At least these things’re going to someone who really appreciates them, I tell myself. Also, this has taught me to USE the things I like so much. I eat my scrambled eggs in the morning off of someone’s one time ‘best china’. I have all this glorious crockery–none of it matches, by the way, that’s not a requirement of mine—that someone somewhere thought was too good to use, so they never enjoyed it…
Same here. Our china was purchased by wife’s maternal grandparents. Neither of our kids is interested in getting it.
Save that sterling silver, Chip. I’m sitting on mine because I have a feeling it is going to come in handy in the future.
Me too, but I am considering starting to use it for everyday, along with the cut glass. What good is it sitting in a cupboard.
Disclaimer: bachelor.
Why not? Might as well go down like the Titanic, with the good crystal and china.
I will say one thing. I’d rather eat off a set of dishes from the 1960s or 1970s purchased at the thrift store, than a new set made in China.
Ha! Hopefully I can stay afloat though. I do watch for icebergs.
I saw a full set of “working-class chic” electroplated silverware from the late 1960’s or something, just sitting there unsold at Goodwill. Last year somebody might have wanted it for melt (since it’s likely nickel underneath the silver-ha ha) but this year nobody even glances at it, despite the incredibly low price (about the price of a stainless (har har–crappy chinese stuff shows rust spots all the time) set from Target).
I thought about it for about two seconds and decided it was ugly… plus silver is a PITA.
I kind of want some older US stainless flatware. The chinese stuff I’m using makes me nervous.
I’ve got a full set of my late mother’s ‘trousseau’ silver - I use it every day because a) its a beautiful Art Nouveau pattern (”Peony”, I believe) and b) because it reminds me of her in a way that looking at a picture of her never could.
And, just like her, it does not react well with the sulphur in modern dishwasher tabs… thank god for silver polish.
SATURDAY, JANUARY 17, 2009
UP AND DOWN WALL STREET
Parade of the Basket Cases
By ALAN ABELSON
The sad story of the decline and fall of the banks; and a mountain of toxic assets.
“…Mr. Bush, who tended to treat the press (and not without reason) as if it were a communicable disease, transformed himself into just about the most approachable fellow extant. He, too, popped up here, there and just about everywhere on the tube and in print.
His message was straightforward, consistent and clear: Thanks to his vigilance, this nation was spared a terrorist attack after 9/11. And so it was, for which we are all profoundly grateful. And only the most vehement Bush-basher would sniff that the real reason for the absence of an attack was that Mr. Bush did such a thorough number on the country all by himself that the terrorists figured, why bother?…”\
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123215043364592063.html
Harsh
Yeah, Dubbya - thanks for closing the stable door AFTER the horse has bolted.
I love the way his Presidency seems to have started on 09/12/01, rather than 20/01/01…
Anyway, I’m not sweating the small stuff - I’ll be waving him goodbye at 11.59am on tuesday. Buhbye!
‘I’ll be waving him goodbye at 11.59am on tuesday. Buhbye!’
Let’s do it together! Bye-bye! Bye-bye Dubya, ya fookin’ wretch!
Ahhhh….I just can’t waaaaaaaaiiiiiit.
Ahhh, then end of the Quayle Presidency.
Roidy
It’s all good now, because policy makers are universally sold on the plan to inject unlimited amounts of freshly printed money (borrowed as it were from Uncle Sam) into Wall Street’s life support system for zombie banks.
In April, Marty Ummel of Carlsbad, Calif., lost a highly publicized case in which she and her husband charged they had been misled about home prices in their new neighborhood. They say a real-estate agent caused them to overpay for a home they otherwise wouldn’t have purchased. Ummel says the agent feared they would pull out of the deal and that he would be out $30,000 in commission. The couple paid $1.2 million for their home and then discovered a similar residence nearby had sold for $105,000 less.
A San Diego County Superior Court jury ruled against the Ummels, saying the agent had not breached his fiduciary duties and had not been negligent.
The Ummels are appealing the verdict. Marty Ummel says their case was hurt by the portrayal of her as a woman who would “never be satisfied” with any home purchase. The jury heard that real-estate agents had shown her 60 homes before she settled on one to buy.
Maybe this will make people think twice about treating buyer’s agents as if they are fiduciaries… yeah, right.
Probably everyone will focus on what idiots the Ummels are.
And so it starts…again…..
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090117/chrysler_bailout.html
Give lenders free money to loan out for vehicles at 0% to try to sell vehicles to people so in a few more years no one is buying vehicles because interest rates are above 0 and the incentives are gone.
And dealers won’t negotiate because “you’re already getting 0%” so let’s jack up the price.
Cognitive disconnect: The data at the top of the page shows prices fell 30.2% from Dec 07 - Dec 08
While $0 is definitely a lower bound, and hence a bottom is much closer than it was a year ago, I have a hard time sharing Thornburg’s optimism that prices will bottom out this year, as we have two years of Alt-A and prime resets ahead against the backdrop of a worsening employment picture. I don’t expect prices to stop falling under these conditions.
I also don’t know what data Thornberg is looking at to come up with his read that price declines are leveling off. My look at Radar Logic’s data yesterday suggested the rate of decline is steady at about 40 pct per annum in price per square foot terms. The 30 pct drop in median resale price likely hides this, as the average quality of homes selling actually increases as the bottom is approached.
Home prices tumble 24% from 2007
First-time buyers take advantage of foreclosure sales
By Roger Showley (Contact) Union-Tribune Staff Writer
2:00 a.m. January 17, 2009
Online: See details on prices and housing in San Diego County neighborhoods at uniontrib.com/more/documents
San Diego County ended 2008 with the worst real estate downturn on record, with prices dropping more than 24 percent from 2007 levels. The question on the minds of buyers, sellers, renters and real estate professionals is whether 2009 will bring more of the same or mark the start of a recovery.
For all of 2008, the median price was $360,000, a record 24.4 percent decline on a year-over-year basis, while sales sank to their lowest level since 1995.
Meanwhile, December’s numbers reflected a continued housing slump, with the median price declining 30.3 percent from a year earlier to $300,000 – the lowest since April 2002, MDA DataQuick Information reported yesterday. Since monthly prices peaked in November 2005 at $517,500, the median has dropped 42 percent.
But as prices sank to more affordable levels, partly because of the presence of many deeply discounted foreclosure properties, sales rose, with December up 34.7 percent year over year to 3,325 transactions.
…
“It was the revenge of the first-time home buyer,” said DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage, who noted that new buyers were particularly active in Oceanside, Chula Vista and inland areas where prices fell the most.
Economist Christopher Thornberg, who predicted the bursting of the housing bubble long before many other analysts, was confident that this is the year housing prices finally hit bottom. But he cautioned that it could be at least a couple of years before housing values begin rising again.
“It’s pretty clear that from the numbers we’re seeing, price declines are falling at a slower pace than a year ago, and this is good news, because you need to see a slowing decline before prices stop falling,” said Thornberg, of Beacon Economics.
San Diego real estate agent Gary Kent said he expects homes under $500,000 to bottom out sooner than upper-end houses, where prices still have further to fall.
“I think that we’re close to the bottom on the lower end because investors now can buy and get a positive cash flow, and home buyers can buy and not pay that much more than rent,” Kent said.
Thornberg noted that the stock of foreclosures remains high, which will continue to depress prices, and with unemployment rising, fewer people will be looking to buy homes. In December, San Diego foreclosures represented 50.4 percent of all resales, compared with 30.3 percent a year earlier.
Other indicators also suggested how the year could unfold.
The Construction Industry Research Board in Burbank reported that only 135 San Diego County building permits were issued in December, and the 5,153 total for the year was the lowest since the board started tracking San Diego permit activity in 1967.
“We foresaw ‘08 and fear ‘09 is going to be a repeat,” said Borre Winckel, chief executive of the San Diego County Building Industry Association.
In the resale market, San Diego’s inventory continues to drop, a sign that demand is whittling away the supply and that prices might be stabilizing. The San Diego Association of Realtors said the inventory of unsold resale homes, including foreclosures, stood at 14,997 yesterday, the smallest since early 2006, as the housing market was cooling.
It’s interesting that Thornberg does not seem to factor in ALT-A and Option ARM resets, which will peak in 2010 and 2011.
I thought the Alt-A resets peaked this spring and summer (Case-Shiller data).
Guess it’s pretty bad in the UK, too. Honda has decided to shut down production there for four months straight.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/money/article2142602.ece
My man! Easy to guess who was the only member of the House of Representatives who voted for the stupid “Consumer Product Safety Improvement Act” - Ron Paul. All others, Dem and Rep alike, voted for this ill-conceived legislation that I bet will have to be repealed tout suite, since it will otherwise wipe out the incomes of thousands of folks countrywide if it goes into effect Feb. 10. Makes you wonder if these leeches even read the stuff they vote on.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/01/16/cpsia-safety-toys-oped-cx_wo_0116olson.html?feed=rss_news
CORRECTION: who voted AGAINST - sorry.
“Besides, the law grants enforcement authority not only to the CPSC but to the 50 state attorneys general, which means anyone who ships nationally, small fry or not, is at the mercy of whomever turns out to be the least reasonable attorney general, a post for which there is always considerable competition. “
My guess is that Matel and Toys are US are putting together there own enforcement devision that will notify the FEDS.
Will probably will have to die when all fire departments that have “toys for tots” programs around Christmas declare that they have to cancel their programs because they have no way to figure out if the donations were tested or not. Fire departments have lots of polictial clout.
WASHINGTON – Eighty-three of the nation’s 100 largest corporations, including Citigroup, Bank of America and News Corp., had subsidiaries in offshore tax havens in 2007, and some of the companies received federal bailout funding, a government watchdog said Friday.
The Government Accountability Office released a report that said Bank of America Inc., Citigroup Inc. and Morgan Stanley all had more than 100 units in countries that maintain low or no taxes. The three financial institutions were included in the $700 billion financial bailout approved by Congress.
Insurance giant American International Group Inc., which has received about $150 billion in bailout money, had 18 subsidiaries. JPMorgan Chase & Co. had 50 units and Wells Fargo & Co. had 18; both financial institutions received government bailout money.
Sens. Carl Levin, D-Mich., and Byron Dorgan, D-N.D., who requested the report, have pushed for tougher laws to fight offshore tax havens around the globe. Levin, who leads the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, has estimated abusive tax havens and offshore accounts cost the U.S. government at least $100 billion a year in lost ta
Corporate tax dodging? I find that hard to believe!
not
Yesterday was my wife’s “no longer 30s” birthday. We went to dinner with her parents.
Pretty somber. I think they realize they really f’d up.
Here’s the story. Middle-class their whole life. Dad (actually step) Vietnam Vet, in and out of work in various jobs. Mom worked as a service tech for U.S. West baby bell.
They turned 40s, kids out of the house. Dad setteled into a pretty good job selling semi’s and such. They sell the boring house and move into one on a private man-made lake on the edge of town.
50-ish in the year 2000, Quest buys out U.S. West and buys out mom with a sweet early retirement package. They take a HUGE $100K gain from the house on the lake, that is now in town instead of on the edge of town.
They decide they are going to spend their senior years in style. They buy a 3000 sqft, $250K house in a golf community on the extreme south edge of town for $250K. They then spend a huge chunk of money fixing it up with high end water feature (pond, stream, $2000+ worth of fish), high end built in bar-b-que “center”, fireplace on the porch, high-end home theater, etc.
They buy a couple huge SUVs, and what is a house in a golf community without the high end golf cart?
MIL, like me, is a Disney nut…. But, she’s into collectables. She has like 4 curio cabnets filled with various brick-a-brack.
Of course, the kids LOVED going to their place at xmas, especially our spoiled rotten niece.
2 years ago I was trying as hard as I could to convince themwhat was coming. They didn’t want to hear it. 2007, as the new emission standards were about to take effect, dad cleared better than $100K selling trucks. Stocks were still climbing. House prices were still way up there. What they’d bought for $250K and spent $100K in improvements, was worth North of $550K.
Jump ahead 2 years. Her dad hasn’t made a sale in 18 months, meaning he hasn’t collected a paycheck in a year. The house, they refi-ed a couple years ago to get better rate (30 year loan), they still owe close to $250K on now worth no more than $400K, and still falling rapidly. He took it in the shorts in his stock investments.
Mother-in-law needed knee surgery. Father-in-law had tripple bypass a couple years ago so is getting killed by medical insurance costs. Still a few years from Social Security and Medicare, which won’t come close to covering their expenses.
Hearing them talk last night, it was clear that if they could go back and do it again, they’d be much more focused on having the house paid off in their 50s, investments in safer (as if there is such a thing) place than stocks, having taken a little better care of their health, focused more on the family in their 40s, and a lot less on keeping up with the jones’ and improving their lifestyle.
As I said, it was pretty somber.
Comments about my SIL about to lose a second house to foreclosure… she did the buy and dump too soon.
Comments about all 3 families living in our house.
Ummm… Maybe you should have been a LITTLE nicer to your eldest daughter.
thanks for sharing.
good post.
+1
Excellent post. Something to be mulled over.
I go out to dinner with some of my friends’ parents, and I hear similar litanies.
Excellent story. (Repeat)(70,000,000)=Current scenario for babyboomers.
These people suffered from the very same illness so many others had in prior boom/bust cycles going back to the 70’s. And to hear them bemoan and belabor how awful their situation is is akin to listening to a skipping compact disc.
“We didn’t see it coming”
“We deserve it” (the most outlandish statement)
“We didn’t do anything wrong”
“Everyone else was doing it”
Etc, etc, etc.
If you’re “gaining” economic ground without working for it in conjunction with delaying consumption (SAVING) then you’re living in a fantasy world. If you want to own the asset inflation then you have to own the deflation. Period.
If there is one thing that galls me endlessly, it’s the “We deserve it” statement.
Just two days ago, I heard it from someone, and before I knew it, I had blurted out, “Reality doesn’t give a cr@p what you think you deserve; it is what it is and the sooner you deal with it, the better off you will be.”
There was a bit of a horrified silence, and then they changed the subject. Thank heavens for alcohol to get me through the evening.
Exactly. In the worldly scheme of things, if these people knew what they deserved, they wouldn’t be screaming for it.
I also threw in, “Well, you can expect anything you like but if you don’t get it, what exactly are you gonna do?”
The air was thick and poisoned.
Clearly, I have taken the Dale Carnegie lessons to heart.
I have worked very hard to avoid what I deserve, thank you.
‘I have worked very hard to avoid what I deserve, thank you.’
Hahahahah! Nice!
(Me, too.)
BlueSky
“I have worked very hard to avoid what I deserve, thank you.”
I think I’ll tattoo that on my a$$ - actually I’d tattoo it on my forehead but the desperate “deserving” wouldn’t get it.
Brilliant - and for me sums up the whole financial stupidity of the past decade.
Did you say it with a smile on your face?
What kind of function were you at, Cat?? Wish I’d a been there.
Thanks for reminding me how lucky I am with my parents. Now, I don’t get along all that well with my mother on a day to day basis (she lives her life in a permanent state of sibling rivalry with the whole world - very uncomfortable), they bought their retirement condo for cash, have way less then $10K left in the HELOC they used to fix it up which they will pay off soon, and while they have lost plenty in the market (I warned them, but she is a Bob Brinker devotee), they deal with it by canceling future vacations beyond visiting me (once a year) and the grandkid (every 6-8 weeks).
And they have long term care insurance. Not sure if the company backing it is any good, but at least they tried.
Thanks for reminding me how lucky I am with my parents.
Me too.
I was talking about the economy with my retired mom the other night, and she mentioned that some of her investments had lost a third in value — then she said, “Luckily I don’t need to depend on that money, ’cause at my age it may never be coming back.” She has a house in NoVa with a small amount left on the 30 year mortgage, but that’s about it — she lives somewhat frugally.
Good post, Darrell.
That’s why I never listen to old people, just because they’re ‘older and wiser’. No, they aren’t. Nohow. Added years still can’t beat the stupid out of some people. Sigh.
And I think it’s funny, the talk about the families moving in with you. Did you manage to keep a straight face?
But, it is possible to learn from their mistakes.
My wife and I? 40, 42. 14 years on our mortgage. Total debt (house, student loans, credit cards, cars, etc) is less than 2x annual income, and we’re looking to pay it down by about 10% this year.
I got us both out of stocks 18 months ago (July 2007) right near a peak.
Yes, we’re behind on retirement saving. Only about $100K in 401(k)s. But, that is about the same as having had $200K 2 years ago and left it in an S&P fund. In my tax bracket, $1 not lost is like $1.60 earned.
I want to have all our non-student loan, non-house debt paid off within 3 years so. That is when there will be some real investment oppertnities, I think. Plans subject to change should either of us lose our jobs… knock on wood.
You are paying on student loans in your 40’s? Wow…
Huh? Skroodle - what planet do you live on?
Why do you think people in their 40s and younger are hopping mad?
We don’t live in the cushy world you live in. Paying for our elders is increasingly expensive. Paying for social welfare programs is increasingly expensive. Paying for the idiotic credentials expected by senior officials at all types of companies in order to land a job at a call center that pays $25K a year is expensive.
Starting your own company is expensive and gains are taxed to the nth. Starting your own company and bribing government officials at OSHA is expensive.
Moving up the corporate ladder is difficult and will become worse as all sorts of elders are unprepared and cannot retire. Saving money is tough after years of miniscule raises. Moving across the country in pursuit of higher wages is expensive now that few companies pay for relocation expenses.
Houses are still 4-5x income. Most households have TWO wage earners, not ONE, and cannot hope to purchase houses at those prices.
Get it?
“Starting your own company and bribing government officials at OSHA is expensive.”
If you were doing what you’re suppose to be doing and adhering to 29CFR you wouldn’t have to worry about “bribing” OSHA officials. Good outfits comply with 29CFR 365 days a year… it is scumbags, moneygrubbers and scab outfits who offer bribes and go to jail…. right where they belong.
I’m certain you don’t get it.
Added years still can’t beat the stupid out of some people.
In fact I think for some it tends to make the stupidity set in deeper…like aging wine or something. It becomes more and more a part of their whole being.
+1 well said
have actually seen this in some relatives, personality quirks amplified by the infirmity and rigidity of age
one more reason to try to get more fit and stay that way
Sorry to hear it, Darrell.
I’ve raged more than a few times on the HBB about this generation of people born from 1938 to 1954 (or so) about being the true Baby Boomers of the country. And I’m sticking by what seems like tiresome prattle to most people. Tiresome it might very well be. Prattle is most definitely is not.
People born during these years rode the Demographic Gravy Train to high (artifical) heaven and now are getting slaughtered as a result. For many, it is too late.
It will be awful for most as they come to understand that much of their previous success was due wholly to highly favorable demographic circumstance rather than any particular talents they might have had.
They didn’t change the world - they simply basked in a world that was changing no matter they did.
They’ve heard for years from those 20 years older and younger aout how their lifestyles couldn’t be maintained - but willingly ignored it.
They didn’t bother to save money because the prices of houses always went up handsomely - whether they improved them or not. They didn’t consider that demographics had anything to do with any of the increase.
They didn’t acknowledge that high paying, top-of-the-ladder jobs were and are hard to come by for those older or younger than they - because when they entered the workforce, there were few people above them to compete with, and a huge mass of people younger that they could sell to. Getting a high paying job was relatively easy…especially in their prime earning years (1985-2000).
They had time to contemplate their navels and wring their over-washed hands watching Thirty-Something on television.
Instead, they should have contemplated what life might be like at 60 re: given demographics and watched their pennies.
Gakkk.
You likely weren’t even born when I was putting myself through college cutting firewood 40 hrs a week, or when I was working 12s at the mill to feed up four kids. What was that advice your generation was giving me then?
There are fools and slugs in every generation.
I’m 44.
For at least 20 years, I’ve been after people 15-25 years my senior about the disaster that awaited THEM. Further, many people now aged 55-70 heard from their parents for years about their indulgent, hyper-consumer lifestyles.
And don’t tell me they haven’t heard it over and over again.
They simply chose to ignore it.
Now - at age 60 - they find themselves up a creek. Well, guess what? Hedonism has its price. As long as they don’t come whining to me for money after blowing their [borrowed/leveraged] wads on McMansions, ClubMed, dinners out 5x a week and self-indulgent trips to Magic Kingdoms, then I wish them well.
If buying groceries at Aldi’s is good enough for Eudemon, then it’s good enough for them, too. Poor darlings - they might have to allow themselves be caught shopping in stores that are beneath them. Sniff!
My first jobs before and throughout college (see, I put myself through college as well), was making $2.35-$2.90/hour washing dishes in restaurants. I did that for four years straight. Meanwhile, I took five classes a semester and had a non-paid internship for 4 semesters in a row.
Starting out, I tried to get jobs bagging groceries in grocery stories, but no such higher-paying jobs were available. This was Rust Belt Chicago 1979-1981.
Well, I can identify with those words better than the broadbrush. I never did Magic Kingdom. A great vacation for me was my dad and my son and me in a 14ft Vhull on Tamagami.
I did the evening dishwashing at the greasy spoon in Grove City my first year as well. Dinner thrown in on top of that $2.
I have to admit, after screaming like and angry old guy (fun actually), that I have friends my age who have heard the same from me, and yes it is a language that they cannot understand. Understanding is rising to meet them.
“As long as they don’t come whining to me for money after blowing their [borrowed/leveraged] wads on McMansions, ClubMed, dinners out 5x a week and self-indulgent trips to Magic Kingdoms, then I wish them well.”
They won’t have to come whining to you. Uncle Sam will succumb to political pressure to hand over some of the dough that those who lived more frugal lifestyles have saved over to the over-indulgent middle-class folks who enter old age without enough savings to make ends meet. Anyone who saves in this environment is a fool who should expect to have the fruits of financial prudence stripped away by share-the-wealth schemes.
Only about 10% of the “boomer” generation achieved anything CLOSE to affluence, fake or real.
The rest, just like you, me and everyone else, were working stiffs who got stiffed over and over.
Remember, there’s only one game in town: the super rich vs. everyone else and it’s to the death. Mostly… yours.
So lay off that generational cr@p. It’s just another diversion from raping and pillaging by Megabank, et al.
And what age group is currently responsible for all the raping and pillaging at MegaBank USA?
Today’s 20-year-olds? 30-year-olds? 40-year-olds? 10-year-olds?
MegaBanks don’t rape and pillage, ecofeco. Banks are things, not people.
Banks are run by PEOPLE, and most of the borrowers I know who did painfully stupid things were in their 20s and 30s.
I don’t know any Boomers who have granite countertops.
Amen to that, dude. That’s a good way to look at politics. There are politicians in both parties who are being funded by those folks in the top 10%. As a result they promote a bunch of policies to benefit those 10%. The rest of us, if we’re lucky, can pick up the crumbs that fall off of the table.
Of course, those folks in that 10% think that they achieved their wealth because they’re so smart and hard-working, so they consider eveyone else to be losers and look down on us.
However, if you meet any of these people you learn that many of them achieved their through plain luck. The best luck you can have is to be bron to rich parents.
Born in ‘52 - been on this blog three years and have seen Ben’s reasoned passion in contrast to your and others’ seeming misplaced passion on the blog.
Bashing a category of folks rarely has results. I paid off my home, have retired at 53, have no debts and no retirement. No devastated 401k, just a very small and well-protected one. Live in a 976 square foot house. How can you hate people like me so much, when we are watching each and every one of our pennies, though you somehow think we are not.
Oh, that’s right. Some have real pensions or worked for the state, county, or federal government. I didn’t, so I am screwed. Envy me and blame me. please! I actually feel your pain, not just with sympathy but with empathy.
“They buy a 3000 sqft, $250K house in a golf community on the extreme south edge of town for $250K.”
I’m not quite sure what you mean by this.
“Comments about all 3 families living in our house.”
Run like hell.
Sorry for the stress it must place on you.
my mom pissed away a good part of her 600K inheritance by refusing to sell her “trust fund handpicked stocks” and buying a mutual fund like I told her to. Didn’t want to pay capital gains tax !!! WTF !!!
Bye bye Enron and now Bank of america. AT&T she still has as well as some utilities and baby bells. I think BF goodrich also?
she will be OK.
I gave up 10 years ago giving her advice. Then she calls and says she is AFRAID that there will be nothing left ?
hey look at the bright side at least you don’t have to pay capital gains tax . I don’t think she even remembers because she didn’t get it.
We begged our mother to sell her pharmaceutical stocks in 1998. She had already lost part of her portfolio (inherited in early 1970’s from her father, who died when she was 12) due to companies failing through fraud or incompetence. Her own aunt used to call her asking how some retailer or other in our area was doing, but she wouldn’t buy or sell any stocks!
Mom had her hopes set on the cap gains being indexed to inflation. Of course that didn’t happen. It’s all about lowering taxes for banksters, not lowering taxes for middle class people who held stocks through the 1970’s. By the time that all went down the market had peaked, but she still could have sold with mucho profit.
I don’t even know if my parents have IRAs. Kinda scary. Also mom is holding assets for her Down’s Syndrome brother, on very shaky legal grounds. (I have no doubt she will use the money for his medical care when the need arises, but the way it was set up was totally hinky.) I got on the phone a year or so ago and bawled my parents out about their need to hire a lawyer (at the least). They said “yeah, yeah, you’re probably right” and have done nothing to this day. The icing on the cake is that my youngest brother has severe autism and cannot care for himself, but their will was written in another state when me and my sister were minor children and he hadn’t even been born!
On the plus side, after reading some books about the demographic storm, I had a “come to jesus” moment about my finances. I always figured I could scrape along in genteel poverty (especially given I wanted to work in the public sector and my major pleasure in life is reading), but I came to realize that a major medical problem could leave me penniless and the social safety net just isn’t going to be there for people my age. So now I am learning to save and invest like my great aunt. The boomers may be screwoffs but this Gen Xer is going back to the old ways. (Speaking of which, remember when people used to distrust organized religions? Of course not, that was in the 1930’s! Guess it took an organized religion orchestrating an involuntary mass killing for the sheeple to suspect there might be something “off” about the sacramental wine. Guess what, mutton’s for dinner!)
Guess it took an organized religion orchestrating an involuntary mass killing for the sheeple to suspect there might be something “off” about the sacramental wine.
Huh?
Are you talking about Jim Jones?
Great post… you have been offering more than your fair share of the probing insights here as of late.
“…investments in safer (as if there is such a thing) place than stocks,…”
The Fed is working very hard to ensure that no investment is a safe haven. IMHO, they have churned the financial markets into a storm tossed sea where there is no safe place to hide. There has never been a better time to diversify!
My wife and I went to the “Electric City” here in South Carolina yesterday to do some shopping and have dinner at Olive Garden. The “outdoors” store (hunting/camping gear and clothes, etc.) was quite busy. We got to Olive Garden just before 5 PM and were seated immediately. By the time we finished our meal around 5:45 the restaurant was full and the lobby was very crowded with people waiting to be seated. The parking lots of all the other restaurants along the main drag were also full.
However, the nearby mall was nearly empty when we arrived there around 6:15. Around 7:00, the hallways started filling up with teens who obviously weren’t there to shop. I guess it’s a warm place to hang out and not have to spend any money. Whitehall Jewelers was gone and Ritz Camera was obviously getting ready to vacate.
Why do I think bill in los angeles is the same person as bill in south carolina?
Because you don’t comprehend our posts enough to realize that we are not the same person.
I think Bill in LA is the same as Bill in Maryland. He is the atheist, anarchist who is proud of never taking vacations and only bonking foreign girlfriends because American women are after his vital fluids (and wallet). Angry all the time and therefore boring.
Bill in Carolina is much calmer and retired (I think) and much more of a day to day observer of one of the many places that still thinks it is “different.”
Are you suggesting that American women are not, in fact, after our sweet, sweet, bodily fluids?
“Are you suggesting that American women are not, in fact, after our sweet, sweet, bodily fluids?”
Only blood and only if you really, really piss us off.
‘…is proud of never taking vacations and only bonking foreign girlfriends because American women are after his vital fluids (and wallet).’
Hahahahaah! *makes bizarre snorty sound of mirth*
Nice one, polly.
Nice editing and nice fantasies and other extrapolations that you have. Angry? Well you have the channel to my brain or at least claim to, but in reality I am judgmental. Boring? There you are right. I am very boring to American women. The feeling is mutual. I also get delight in American women trying to put me down because it only strengthens the case for foreign-born women. No apologies.
‘I also get delight in American women trying to put me down… ‘
Man, you need to get some hobbies.
I’d suggest knitting, or something like that. Knitting is fun. Plus, them furrin wimmin would probably appreciate a man who can knit them that outlandish un’Merican stuff they wear, like berets and burkas and anoraks and such.
*shakes fluffy substandard American head in wonderment, just a’thinking of the future glory of Bill’s cable and purl stitch abilities *
ngry? Well you have the channel to my brain or at least claim to, but in reality I am judgmental. Boring? There you are right. I am very boring to American women. The feeling is mutual.
snuuuueeeeeaarghaflflehahahahHAHAHAHAHAH!!!
You just can’t make this stuff up!
“Uh, so let’s get going, there’s no other choice. God willing, we will prevail, in peace and freedom from fear, and in true health, through the purity and essence of our natural… fluids. God bless you all”
Amen.
*bows head solemnly, in respect for these sentiments *
Oh, hey, Muir, how’s your fluids? Oh, and how’s your toenail, too?
Both doin’ well, I hope.
toenail
fluids
“…or How I learned to quit worrying and learned to love the Bomb”
Funny!
I took the plunge yesterday on my planned USO calls. All you traders out there should probably go short Tuesday because in the short term I’m a contrarian indicator.
I had a really good week with WFC puts and SKF long doing nicely, both of those positions got taken late last year. I also BTC my RSU short with little gain.
My goal for this year is to double last year’s return on the same capital total. Every January for the last 5 years I’ve skimmed off the cream of my spec account and placed it in FDIC or precious, so I start with the same challenge each year. I’ve been running on house money for the last two years.
Anyway, 127% in ‘08, looking for 250% in ‘09. My best gains in ‘08 came from SKF long, and puts on BBY, MER, WFC, WM. By biggest loss was on BAC puts, I was about 3 months early on that one.
I’d be interested to hear our various strategies, my main strategy is based on the thought that we are rapidly approaching a time when being at cash will lose real dollars through devaluation, but equities won’t necessarily be a good place for refuge.
Thanks in advance as always for your thoughts, as with many of us I, presume, there isn’t really anyone I know in real life who understands this stuff well enough to have a discussion. I thank God for the internets. (and AL Gore lol)
Congratulations, dude. What’s your target on USO?
I’ll be happy just getting my premium back. I’m really looking at this as inflation hedging.
My target is 60 by Jan. ‘10. If I hit that it will make my year.
Hi dude,
“I’d be interested to hear our various strategies, my main strategy is based on the thought that we are rapidly approaching a time when being at cash will lose real dollars through devaluation, but equities won’t necessarily be a good place for refuge.”
Agree 100%
Whatever you’re doing is working pretty well.
My advice is don’t go looking for advice. It gets too confusing and dilutes your returns.
The whole idea is to take money out of the market. Most people want to be right about some issue, price, or direction, and wind up giving money back to the market. Better to do it your way.
Thanks for sharing.
This is the year that Harry Dent has long predicted to be a depression. Although I’ve been buying gold bullion in an ounce or two at a time, I have let up for several months. But I think there is an inflection point coming up and cash will no longer be king. Hard to say when. But I’m sensing that I’m dangerously behind in my precious metals accumulation.
0.7% yielding Series I bonds are my addiction though! It’s either buy them and TIPS or buy gold.
I think I know what you are talking about with “the feeling”. I’ve come to find that those persistent nagging urges are best followed and not ignored, financially speaking.
Agree.
My “feelings” have been almost 100% correct, but I’m too often afraid to follow them. Woulda, coulda, shoulda, you know?
“don’t go looking for advice”
Anybody who asks me how I’m making money in this market while others are losing shirts is told one simple step.
Read the bits bucket at HBB, every day. Priceless advice.
‘Read the bits bucket at HBB, every day. Priceless advice.’
Yar. Ben and others on the HBB have saved ME money, I know, even though I don’t do that fancy thinky trading stuff you’re on about, dude.
I feel grateful. Thanks, Ben! Thanks, HBBers!
Can’t say I have a strategy at this point. Still learning, especially from y’all here.
Blano, from what I gather your strategy is to cyber-flirt with every gal on HBB until one of them says yes to you.
I bought some TIPS sort of a deflation or Inflation play
disclaimer I was up a whooping 3% in 2008
I think I will listen more and talk less for 2009
Listen more, talk less; that has been my strategy.
“…we are rapidly approaching a time when being at cash will lose real dollars through devaluation, but equities won’t necessarily be a good place for refuge.”
That sounds like an entirely plausible conundrum.
Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) — At least 21,000 jobs were targeted for elimination yesterday as employers from Hertz Global Holdings Inc. to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. grappled with recession-choked demand.
More than 20 companies said they were cutting jobs, ranging from Amonil SA, Romania’s second-biggest fertilizer maker, to Fiat SpA’s Magneti Marelli auto-parts division. Hertz, the second-largest U.S. rental-car company, said it will cut more than 4,000 jobs, as businesses and consumers slow travel because of the global recession.
“What you take away here is just how miserably profitability performed in the final quarter of ‘08,” said John Lonski, chief economist at Moody’s Capital Markets Group in New York, in an interview. “Companies cut back on staff when sales are significantly under expectation.”
About 2.1 million U.S. jobs will be lost in 2009, Lonski predicted, with 80 percent of the layoffs by the 4th of July.
“The downside risks facing the U.S. economy dwarf the upside potential that exists,” Lonski said.
Richard Duncan predicted this global depression in his 2003 book. He argued that global aggregate supply is beginning to outrun global aggregate demand as the countries pursuing export-oriented growth are producing more and more goods without a corresponding increase in income among worldwide consumers. In other words, the excess of savings over investment in the export-oriented countries will drive the world economy into a depression. Eventually, he predicted, US consumers will not be able to borrow more for consumption. Like other debtors they will be forced to pullback, causing the depression.
…
[T]rying to stimulate the economy without fixing the trade deficit is like trying to pump up a tire without fixing the leak…. THE STIMULUS PACKAGE WON’T WORK UNLESS TRADE IS BROUGHT TOWARD BALANCE AT THE SAME TIME!
angry bear: Real Keynesians understand imbalanced trade
plus 10
Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) — President George W. Bush and members of his Cabinet are about to find out what most Americans already have had to confront: Whether the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression has hurt their wealth.
Next week, Bush, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman — all millionaires — will get to look at the holdings in their blind investment trusts for the first time since they took office.
Anyone want to make a bets on if they lost money.
I guess GW will make it all back with his presidential library. That’s a pig that needs to be killed, every few years we hear about how our presidents get kickbacks from their supporters in the form of unregulated checks for presidential libraries. How about the US pick up the tab for the library and prevent the kickbacks.
Oooh, this is too good to pass up, measton. Shall we discuss some appropriate titles to be stocked in the library? For example, I’m sure “My Pet Goat” will be available.
but I’m drawing blanks here. What titles would be good for shrubby’s library?
Hey, what’s wrong with goats? Besides that they’s evil and can teleport and like to eat fruit trees and cars and pee in their beards and stuff like that.
Anyhow, IIIIII am the goat-criticizer on THIS blog, Mr. Man.
I can’t wait to see who Bush pardons on Monday, or Tuesday before noon. I wonder if Bush will pardon as many undeserving scumbags as Clinton did (like Marc Rich). We’ll soon find out.
“What titles would be good for shrubby’s library?”
Curious George Takes A Job
Curious George Flys A Kite
…anything from that series, really.
Hahahahaaha! Funny.
‘Curious George is Messily Assassinated at his Ranch in Paraguay’…
Man, I’d REALLY want to read that one. It’d be a best seller, in my opinion.
Georgie’s whole life has been backstopped by his family and their extensive connections.
While he might feel a little sting when he sees how his investment portfolio has done, he’ll be taken care of for life. His safety net is triple-redundant and ironclad …
Serious question: what is the value (utility) of a presidential library anyway? Have most of you been to one? I never have and have no interest in doing so.
The public parts are just a museum about the presidency of that particular president. Imagine a museum about someone with a huge impact on history that is entirely designed by people who think that the president in question was perfect. Not especially interesting.
The non-public part that only available to scholars and researchers is, presumably, more interesting eventually (when the secret stuff can be accessed).
What are prez libraries good for?
The JFK Library catapulted IM Pei to major success. The irony is that the project didn’t even get built.
A JFK library was finally built on this nasty spit of land in Dorchester, next to the high school-esque new UMass Boston (the old one was IN Boston, can’t have hoi polloi taking on airs like that, now can we). If you go to “JFK” red line stop, you must take a bus over there from Morrissey Blvd (great place to get mugged or shot, btw).
The museum part was cool. The building is kinda dull from the outside, I think. Major waste of marble because you could paint concrete and it would look the same. Jackie O. was pretty steamed about how it all turned out.
The value to historians is in the accumulated correspondence, drafts, memos, transcripts, reports, records and other ephemera that provide the largely unseen story of a presidency. It’s also a chance to warehouse publicly released materials in one place, of course, but the real meat of a presidential library isn’t on display.
This traditional conception of the presidential library is somewhat at odds with the outgoing administration’s penchant for secrecy and obfuscation.
Seems to me the Library of Congress could perform this role for a lot less $ and influence-peddling.
He can make a killing on the lecture circuit if he chooses to do so. Ex-presidents needn’t go hungry anymore these days…
Briefing
George Bush’s legacy
The frat boy ships out
Jan 15th 2009
From The Economist print edition
Few people will mourn the departure of the 43rd president
AP
(Photo shows W talking on the phone while leaning back in his Oval Office chair with feet propped up on the desk looming large in the foreground)
HE LEAVES the White House as one of the least popular and most divisive presidents in American history. At home, his approval rating has been stuck in the 20s for months; abroad, George Bush has presided over the most catastrophic collapse in America’s reputation since the second world war. The American economy is in deep recession, brought on by a crisis that forced Mr Bush to preside over huge and unpopular bail-outs.
America is embroiled in two wars, one of which Mr Bush launched against the tide of world opinion. The Bush family name, once among the most illustrious in American political life, is now so tainted that Jeb, George’s younger brother, recently decided not to run for the Senate from Florida. A Bush relative describes family gatherings as “funeral wakes”.
This one’s for GS Fixer (or ex-GS Fixer, if the name change is official): I was laid off at the end of the week in a 15% “reduction” at my former employer.
Mildly surprised, yes. Shocked, no.
I was laid off soon after 2001 as well, and I’m feeling much more positive this time.
Why? My skill set is better, my connections are stronger, I’m healthy, I’m debt-free, we have considerable savings, I have no mortgage, I have no car payment, we have one relatively stable job in the household — and best of all, I can spend some time at home with my beautiful baby boy being Mr. Mom (while saving $1000-ish a month in child care). I credit the people here for reinforcing the need to get one’s financial house in order — that in itself will make the coming months much, much easier.
Cool story. Good for you. Many of us have relatives who didn’t heed the advice and are now suffering for that.
Sorry to hear that ET…This layoff thing is starting to become very worrisome…
agree. all the layoffs on HBB at once, and no longer contained to RE, MTG, and construction.
I thought my job was safe–was pleased to see my rise in the seniority list every semester, that many more slots away from layoff-able. Now, I’m not so sure.
One thing is certain: it will take a miracle to get that raise so many of our employees want. Kind of a rip-off to get substandard wages during the boom (and substandard treatment from the city–this is historical and due to the distribution of Blacks and Whites in various city depts before they got aggressive about breaking that down) and now they’ll be lucky to keep their jobs in the coming mess.
Those of my coworkers who were prudent are beginning to wag the finger and those who were not… Perhaps my idea of a personal finance seminar is an idea whose time has come…
Sorry to hear that, ET-Chicago, but I wish you good luck finding a new job. And enjoy that time with your baby because it will pass faster than you know!
Ditto to each and every word!
Kim, why don’t you just write stuff all the time here in bits henceforth, and I’ll just follow along and type in ‘ditto’. That’ll save me lots of time and having to remember how to spell. Of course, you’ll need to rant and curse more, though.
Ditto.
Sorry to hear that, ET. Glad you have such a good outlook on it. Seriously. People can sense fear. You are much more likely to get a new job when you aren’t terrified of not getting each one you apply for. We are all thinking about you.
Economic woes in Dubai: Laid off people abandoning cars at Dubai airport…
http://www.newkerala.com/topstory-fullnews-66836.html
LOL
Good luck recovering those loans!
HSBC
Priceless! Dubai’s the limit!
Did they leave the cars in long term parking?
LOL.
Has anybody read this article? It’s long, takes about 30 minutes to read but worth it. Written by an ex- T agent I think. I find it fascinating
http://www.rense.com/general80/protc.htm
seems a little mad, actually
not much documentation, a lot of leading questions
where do I suppose that $2B in Iraq went? somebody stole it? ‘never attribute to malice that which can be easily attributed to incompetence’
seems a little mad, actually
I can’t get past the distracting wallpaper. I can’t believe people still use that.
Hey Guys,
Looking for help here. Long time reader / occasional poster on the blog. Looking for investment advice.
Thanks to this blog, I hoarded cash from ‘05-’08, keeping it all in cds at the highest rate I could get. A chunk of that cash was nervously given to my Uncle’s business in the form of a loan in ‘06 that he agreed to (by contract) pay back double in ‘09. That was my down payment - despite knowing the risks of dealing with money in the family, I locked it up with him, knowing that I couldn’t buy a house without it. (forcing me to wait)
Since ‘06, I have saved an equal sum of cash to what was given to my Uncle (outside of my 15% 401k contribution). My thoughts for that money was to eventually put it into a diversified portfolio, ‘after the crash’. I got married in Sept., during the infamous week of plunging markets (interesting to be in serene big sur with people on pay phones / cell phones freaking out, yelling SELL SELL SELL!).
At any rate, come October, I thought it was a good time to start thinking about investing the money. I read ‘the 4 pillars of investing’, and bought into the idea of dollar cost averaging into index funds.
Come November, I opened a Vanguard account and made my initial investments when the dow was between 8300-7500. I invested in :
Vanguard 500
Emerging Markets (down 66% from peak)
US Value
California Long Term Tax Exempt
and I recently added
Corportate High Yield (at it’s december all time low)
I am 30 years old and thought this was a great entry point. I have 50% of that cash invested right now, and the rest in a money market account. If we hit dow 6000 or lower, I’m hoping to have the balls to buy in with the other money.
Am I a fool here? All the elliot wave guys are calling for a another big rally before the final infinite plunge. Should I sell everything and wait for the *real* bottom?
Reading everyone on this blog being so bearish about equities makes me nervous. I thought that I was being smart ‘buying low’. Any advice is appreciated. Thanks.
Have fun with your investing! Where are your high yield investments? Every portfolio should have some.
The Fund allocation for my trust was down 19% last year, it still beat the S&P 500 by 20%. 95% was in Vanguard funds. Vanguard was picked solely because of its cheapness. SInce Madoff, I have switched to ETFs and other funds to get similar makeup.
Read Mr. Peter Lynch’s books and also Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Mr. Edwin Lefevre
You are young have fun, make mistakes and learn from the mistakes.
So, I’m not a dumbass? I have been questioning myself, lately. … but my contrarian side says to fight the questioning - i.e., not panic.
My high-yield is VWEHX - Vanguard High Yield Corporate. I stuck 6% of my portfolio in, literally at the bottom in Dec. It has been the best performer in my portfolio.
I am thinking about starting to nibble on UYG, for the long term :
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UYG#chart3:symbol=uyg;range=2y;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
What do you guys think? It’s $3.
VWEXH- BB
has one easy one:
Nrg Engy 7.375%
overlaps with:
JNK-14% yield-ETF.
-trading at a premium–30 on JNK is better number.
Hoz yanked his Vanguard stuff after the Madoff scandal broke.
“My high-yield is VWEHX - Vanguard High Yield Corporate. I stuck 6% of my portfolio in, literally at the bottom in Dec. It has been the best performer in my portfolio.”
I feel tempted to pursue this avenue. The one caveat is that if corporate failures prove ‘worse than expected,’ a lot of the sources of those high-yield debt payments could dry up. If you time your investment in such funds for the time between when the highest rate of corporate defaults are past and the masses think the worst is yet to come, you can make out like a bandit when the spread between high-yield and risk free debt yields returns to normal.
Basically, as far as what I read, the bonds were priced assuming a 50% default rate, which would be worse than the depression. It was yielding 13% when I bought it, I thought ‘why not’. If that much pessimism is priced in, let’s go for it.
If the value adjusts up enough, I may sell and let someone else have the risk. Last I checked, it was up 15% from where I bought it, and kicking off sweet interest.
But, I do know, no reward without Mr. Risk!
“If we hit dow 6000 or lower, I’m hoping to have the balls to buy in with the other money.”
Yea I will probably buy again at that level
first off, I’d get real interested to know if the uncle paid the note.
and if not, have you seen the financials of the business?
LOL
+1
I was thinking the same thing about Uncle Vinny
Well - your first of all concern is a good one.
I DID NOT want to give him that money, but he begged, and then promised to pay back double.
I know, I know, ala Madoff, you cannot have yield w/o risk. Expecting to double your money is a huge red flag.
Everyone else who gave him money were ‘equity investors’. I made it clear to him that I wanted absolutely NO risk, and this was my down payment money. Time and time again I said that, before handing it over. He actually got down on his knees and begged for it, and I actually signed it over. I have a contract and it’s backed by his condo …….. which he took out an option ARM on to fund the business.
… ugh, I know, I know … I’m a dumbass.
Before I gave him the money, I kept telling him what was coming, what I was reading on this blog, and I how I had my doubts about what he was doing. Told him that I needed the money back, no matter what.
As far as I know, I am the only bond holder at $50k (he owes me $100k, Mar ‘09). The rest of his ‘friends’ are equity investors at a total of like $500k. I don’t think they will ever see that money back.
Thankfully, he has a consulting job at cisco, bringing in $3k / wk., which I believe is floating the non-profitable business.
It’s really sad - I learned a lot from him. He rode the dot com bubble all the way up and down in San Francisco, making obscene salaries and spending every last penny, and then some. Sadly, that set his expectations, and his lifestyle. Mind you, he bought a brand new prada suit and shoes for our wedding, and a brand new 1 series bmw, despite being ‘broke’. He asked me once why I don’t ‘abondon my miserly ways’ buy a new car (I drive a paid off ‘96 Jetta). I told him, ‘because you have all my money’. That shut him up, fast.
Anyway … I do think that he will eventually pay me back, but I knew all along that it wouldn’t be this March. I planed on buying RE in ‘12 or ‘13. So I have started prodding him that I need the money back by then.
So what do you do for a living that you have all this money at the age of 30?
Not every wealthy 30 year old made their dough in business. There are plenty of trust fund babies about…(I know a few personally).
I come from very humble roots south of Detroit. I studied Computer Engineering at University of Michigan and came out to Los Angeles to work in Visual Effects.
Like our friend Bill, I am overpaid. I mostly write / support custom software for a major studio here, and I managed to save so much money due to the obscene amounts of overtime I worked from ‘04-’07. I made 1.5x my base pay in ‘07. Plus, my spending habits haven’t really changed much since college. So, my first priority is saving.
I kind of feel like, making this money so early in life, I should be in good shape long term, as long as I don’t f%^k it up.
Watching my Uncle go through these highs and lows with nothing to show for it, and now being in the situation that he is in, makes me more weary of the moves I make. (and now, he might be dragging me down with him).
Basically, I treat my job like it could be gone tommorow, so I try to be conservative. But, with the markets crashing, I feel like this is a golden opportunity for me to invest for the long term. … but at the same time, I question myself, because if this is the ‘big one’, I could get wiped out. Then, all of that saving and getting a head start would be for naught.
Anyways, I am just looking for some advice, because I trust you guys. You have taught me so much and helped led me into getting a continuing education in the financial markets. You guys have been so on the money (pun intended) through this whole thing, if I am making a mistake here, I want you all to smack me in the face and tell me to get out. I am not trying to be boastful.
I guess I am just paranoid of making a foolish move (other than the one I’ve already made with my Uncle, provided he doesn’t pay back).
test
hmm … I have posted 2 long responses here that havn’t posted. The blog won’t let me repost them, because it claims there are duplicates.
There were no links in my posts. What’s going on??? I posted like 15 min ago.
???
Where are my posts?
I’ve responded to you guys, but the blog doesn’t want to show it. Sorry.
I come from very humble roots south of Detroit. I studied Computer Engineering at University of Michigan and came out to Los Angeles to work in Visual Effects.
Like our friend Bill, I am overpaid. I mostly write / support custom software for a major studio here, and I managed to save so much money due to the obscene amounts of overtime I worked from ‘04-’07. I made 1.5x my base pay in ‘07. Plus, my spending habits haven’t really changed much since college. So, my first priority is saving.
I kind of feel like, making this money so early in life, I should be in good shape long term, as long as I don’t f%^k it up.
Watching my Uncle go through these highs and lows with nothing to show for it, and now being in the situation that he is in, makes me more weary of the moves I make. (and now, he might be dragging me down with him).
Basically, I treat my job like it could be gone tommorow, so I try to be conservative. But, with the markets crashing, I feel like this is a golden opportunity for me to invest for the long term. … but at the same time, I question myself, because if this is the ‘big one’, I could get wiped out. Then, all of that saving and getting a head start would be for naught.
Anyways, I am just looking for some advice, because I trust you guys. You have taught me so much and helped led me into getting a continuing education in the financial markets. You guys have been so on the money (pun intended) through this whole thing, if I am making a mistake here, I want you all to smack me in the face and tell me to get out. I am not trying to be boastful.
I guess I am just paranoid of making a foolish move (other than the one I’ve already made with my Uncle, provided he doesn’t pay back).
Also, what kind of business does your uncle have? Do you know if making decent profits? Will it be the sort of business that can survive this major recession?
And what’s the age difference between the two of you? I can’t imagine begging a relative 20 or 30 years younger than I am for money for a business. It would be one thing if he was unemployed and starving, but this business is probably a dream (or a scheme) to get rich.
It’s gay porn, basically.
I don’t think that it’s making any profits. It is a dream and a scheme, for him. I think that he basically had his head in the clouds, and only saw the upside.
Most of the equity investors did it for the same reason. They are all gay and wanted to be involved in a ‘glamorous’ industry.
Me - he knew I had the money because I was struggling between everyone and their brother telling me to buy a house, and the advice I was getting on this blog. I was talking about this with him (of course, he thought I should definitely buy, buy, buy!). So, he knew that I had the money. When I was 100% convinced to wait, he started his, ‘well, I think you should invest the money with me’ routine. As I’ve already explained, that led to my insisting of no risk, and that this was my down payment money, etc. So, that’s why he offered to double the money … which I was leary about, but eventually gave him the benefit of the doubt and wrote the check.
He’s 20+ years older than me, and the kind of guy with a huge ego, that always needs to be the center of attention. Thus, buying a new beemer and Prada whatever, despite being broke and owing everyone money. He once got a check from a forgotten retirement account from an old employer, and just blew in instantaneously on living room furniture. He paid 18k for a flat screen tv, backed when few knew what they were. I could go on and on…
Basiaclly, it’s a humbling experience for him to owe his nephew money. And, I feel equally awkward.
A side story - his greatest financial move was being lucky enough to buy a loft in Petrero Hill, San Francisco for like $175k in ‘95, right at the bottom of the market. He since has refied several times, including the last for the business, putting the mortgage north of $1M. Basically, he’s a posterboy for the kind of people we talk about on this blog.
#################
It’s gay porn, basically.
I don’t think that it’s making any profits. It is a dream and a scheme, for him. I think that he basically had his head in the clouds, and only saw the upside.
Most of the equity investors did it for the same reason. They are all gay and wanted to be involved in a ‘glamorous’ industry.
Me - he knew I had the money because I was struggling between everyone and their brother telling me to buy a house, and the advice I was getting on this blog. I was talking about this with him (of course, he thought I should definitely buy, buy, buy!). So, he knew that I had the money. When I was 100% convinced to wait, he started his, ‘well, I think you should invest the money with me’ routine. As I’ve already explained, that led to my insisting of no risk, and that this was my down payment money, etc. So, that’s why he offered to double the money … which I was leary about, but eventually gave him the benefit of the doubt and wrote the check.
He’s 20+ years older than me, and the kind of guy with a huge ego, that always needs to be the center of attention. Thus, buying a new beemer and Prada whatever, despite being broke and owing everyone money. He once got a check from a forgotten retirement account from an old employer, and just blew in instantaneously on living room furniture. He paid 18k for a flat screen tv, backed when few knew what they were. I could go on and on…
Basiaclly, it’s a humbling experience for him to owe his nephew money. And, I feel equally awkward.
A side story - his greatest financial move was being lucky enough to buy a loft in Petrero Hill, San Francisco for like $175k in ‘95, right at the bottom of the market. He since has refied several times, including the last for the business, putting the mortgage north of $1M. Basically, he’s a posterboy for the kind of people we talk about on this blog.
My posts magically showed up. I wrote these over an hour ago.
Waiting, if you read this please contact me off blog?
Thanks.
waiting in la,
Judging by the few informations you posted about your uncle’s behavior (risk taking, borrowing against the house, hypersexuality, dreams of grandeur) I dare say that he will end this venture in ruin and clinical depression.
Stop hinting. Get what money back from him that you can with some urgency before he crashes and burns.
Personal investing advice…..Stop letting (asking) other people tell you what to invest your money in.
waiting in_la: Thanks for the details. In my opinion, these stories about people and families and what they do with their money are a very valuable aspect of this blog. One lesson that you can learn from these stories, over and over, is that the 30-year RE bubble in coastal California has made a lot of people of quite rich without the need to get a good education, work hard or anything like that. What’s amazing is how some Californians have managed to blow the fortunes that landed in their laps.
Thanks for the comment. Your are right. I am watching it happen all around me.
My wife’s Aunt and Uncle are another example that I have been saving for a future bits buckets. Blew the family fortunate building and trying to flip an immaculate house in Ojai, CA.
Yes … people here are blowing fortunes which landed in their laps.
45 years ago I worked a summer job at an aerospace company in Orlando. One of the permanent guys in the office had a gambling habit and went to the dog track regularly. Eventually, he took his daughter’s savings for college and lost it at the track. It was a great life lesson for me, as a college kid. The puke got fired before long and I never gambled because of what I saw in that sad family scenario. However, I didn’t have one cent of my money in the parable either. $100K is a lot to have at risk with a very-potentially loser relative.
6. Notice before layoffs
If the company you work for has more than 100 workers, then in most cases the firm is required to give employees 60 days notice and pay in the event of a mass layoff.
The federal law, known as the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act, or WARN Act for short, requires employers to notify employees. However, there are some restrictions.
The layoffs must affect 50 or more workers and at least one-third of employees at a particular facility or impact 500 or more workers, says Stuart Miller, a partner with the Lankenau & Miller, a law firm that represents workers.
About two dozen states have their own notification laws, says Miller, so it’s a good idea to check with your local department of labor to see what the provisions are in your state.
If a company shuts down suddenly because of a dramatic event, such as losing a government contract that represented 90 percent of a firm’s business, then workers may not be entitled to the notice. But just because a firm has filed for bankruptcy, or lays off workers because of the bad economy, does not mean workers are not entitled to notice and pay, Miller says.
Unfortunately, if an employer refuses to provide you notice, there is no government body that enforces the WARN Act. Your only recourse is the legal system.
The Workrights Institute’s Maltby says employers routinely violate the WARN Act. “If you’re involved in a plant shutdown or big layoff and didn’t get 60 days warning, you need to check into it. Call us or a lawyer.”
Foreclosure aid comes with dose of public resentment
In Vermont’s tiny hamlets, shady loans and foreclosures are rare. Banks there avoided exotic mortgages like subprime or interest-only loans, and those that didn’t require proof of income, said Chris D’Elia, president of the Vermont Bankers Association. “We’ve been very conservative, so we were putting people into the right products for their circumstances,” he said.
In many areas, like New England, the idea of a borrower getting a loan without proof of income is about as alien as a 70-degree day in January.
Why can’t this sucker just come clean on the souring of the Faustian bargains he made with the Fedury to buy these corporate black holes?
Lewis’s Merrill, Countrywide Buys May Hurt Him, Bank of America
By David Mildenberg and Linda Shen
Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) — Bank of America Corp.’s Kenneth Lewis, who used acquisitions to build the lender and his reputation, may have damaged both by pursuing Merrill Lynch & Co. and Countrywide Financial Corp.
The bank, largest in the U.S. by assets, dropped 14 percent in New York trading after Lewis, the company’s chief executive officer for eight years, posted the first quarterly loss since 1991. A new package of support on Jan. 15 from the U.S. totaling $138 billion to help absorb Merrill’s losses didn’t stop the stock’s 16-month slide, raising questions among analysts and investors about the tenure of the 61-year-old Lewis.
“He’s made so many just grossly wrong projections or statements in the public press over the last 18 months,” said Jon Fisher, who manages a $1.5 billion portfolio at Fifth Third Asset Management in Minneapolis that doesn’t include the bank’s shares. “I’m sorry, I don’t think he should have a CEO title if he can’t forecast his own business or he can’t understand his own financials.”
…
“Ken Lewis didn’t take responsibility for what has happened with Merrill Lynch and Countrywide,” said Nancy Bush, an independent bank analyst based in Annandale, New Jersey. “I wanted him to say, ‘This is my fault, I paid too much for Merrill and while there may have been some severe deterioration in the fourth quarter, the buck stops here.’”
Fo long, f^ckers! Megabank, Inc, RIP.
Fair Game
The End of Banking as We Know It
By GRETCHEN MORGENSON
Published: January 17, 2009
THE concept of the financial supermarket — the all-things-to-all-people, intergalactic, behemoth banking institution — bit the dust last week.
The first death notice came on Tuesday, when Citigroup, Exhibit A for the failure of the soup-to-nuts business model, said it was dismantling. Just over a decade after the deal-maker Sanford I. Weill tried to meld insurance, investment banking, mortgage lending, credit cards and stock brokerage services, the dissolution began.
Citigroup, it turned out, was too big to manage, too unwieldy to succeed and too gigantic to sell to one buyer.
A few days later, Bank of America, another serial acquirer of troubled institutions —Merrill Lynch and Countrywide Financial most recently — fessed up that its deals now need taxpayer backing. The United States government invested an additional $20 billion in Bank of America (after $25 billion last fall) and agreed to guarantee more than $100 billion of imperiled assets.
Clearly, the entire financial industry is in the midst of a makeover. And while no one wants to call it nationalization, perhaps we can agree on this much: The money business as we have come to know it over the last two decades — with its lush salaries, big-swinging risk-takers and ultrathin capital cushions — is a goner.
Got that? Toast. Toe-tagged.
And that’s a good thing, because maybe we can go back to a banking model that is designed to do more than simply enrich the folks at the top of the enterprise while shareholders and taxpayers absorb all the hits.
But he gets bailed out instead of fired . I think there is another story here one that will be told long after this is over. Hes the fall guy for secret FED deals.
Or our country is run by complete Idiots and we are all doomed
Bear food (munch, munch, munch)…delicious!
There are four more pages in this article after the one posted below. It provides the overwhelming impression that the foreclosure crisis is too big to bail, just like the Megabank, Inc cartel is too big to bail. Thornburg and other bottom callers have lost sight of the magnitude of this tsunami, IMO.
The Crash | What Went Wrong
The Growing Foreclosure Crisis
One oft-repeated assertion no longer holds true. Those in trouble are not, primarily, lower-income borrowers. The foreclosure crisis has become a wave, afflicting neighborhoods of every stripe — but particularly communities created by the boom itself.
Losing the Community They Built
Some residents of California’s Riverside County face uncertain futures as the area, home to many real estate agents and those in the home industry, suffers from high unemployment rates and plummeting home prices.
By Dina ElBoghdady and Sarah Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Saturday, January 17, 2009; Page A01
Before Robin Bohnen and her husband, Shane, bought a $1.16 million Mediterranean-style house in an upscale Southern California suburb two years ago, they were not cash-strapped, debt-ridden or credit-impaired.
Now they are all of the above. Soon they also may qualify for one more distressing category: home lost to foreclosure.
“Wake me up, can this really be happening?” the 42-year-old Bohnen says. As she tries to describe how it feels to have the nation’s financial crisis land in her living room, the phone rings. She ignores it. “It’s probably the bank — again,” she says.
Bohnen once owed her comfortable lifestyle to the dizzying growth that transformed Southern California over the past decade, creating a boom that led many to believe their home values would keep climbing. As the owner of a furniture store born during the housing boom, she provided bean bag chairs and bedroom sets for the brand-new communities that easy credit built.
Now, she and husband just owe. They cannot afford their $6,400 monthly payment, and in this plummeting market, they wouldn’t make enough on a sale to pay off their mortgage or recoup the 20 percent they put down to buy their Riverside County home.
They’re “underwater,” industry parlance for borrowers who owe more on their mortgage than their houses are worth. They have joined the growing line of homeowners seeking a break from their lenders.
Both the departing and incoming administrations in Washington have promised help on the foreclosure front, but providing help requires federal regulators to get their collective arms around the size and shape of the crisis. That isn’t easy. No one agency collects information on every loan, every borrower and every delinquency.
But interviews and a Washington Post analysis of available data show that the foreclosure crisis knows no class or income boundaries. Many borrowers ensnared in the evolving mortgage mess do not fit neatly into the stereotypes that surfaced by early 2007 when delinquency rates shot up. They don’t have subprime loans, the lending industry’s jargon for the higher-rate mortgages made to borrowers with shaky credit or without enough cash for a down payment.
The wave of subprime delinquencies appears to have crested. But in October, for the first time, the number of prime mortgages in delinquency exceeded the subprime loans in danger of default, according to The Post’s analysis.
This trend shows up most acutely in California and other high-growth regions, such as Arizona, Nevada, Florida and pockets of the Washington region, most notably in Prince William and Prince George’s counties.
The recession has made it tougher for people to pay their mortgages, and crashing home prices have left many borrowers underwater, unable to sell or refinance their way out of trouble. One of every five mortgage holders now has a home worth less than the mortgage on it, according to First American CoreLogic, a firm that tracks mortgages and provided data for The Post’s analysis.
Of the 20 Zip codes with the highest share of underwater loans, seven are in California and four are in Riverside County, the vast exurb southeast of Los Angeles where the Bohnens live. Riverside’s unemployment rate has zoomed to 10 percent, well above the national average of 7.2 percent. About 94,200 people in the county are looking for work, many of them formerly employed in the real estate, banking and construction industries, according to the county’s economic development agency.
From the bowels of that Washington Post article I just posted (don’t know if it will appear due to an embedded link):
“They thought housing was a sure thing because there had never been, since the Great Depression, a sustained drop in housing prices,” said Alan Blinder, former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve and now a professor at Princeton University. “There had been isolated drops in certain geographies, but not across the nation.”
The federal government played a central role in the boom. The Fed cut a key short-term rate to rev up the economy following the tech bust, enabling lenders to borrow money at low rates, lend that cash to home buyers at higher rates and then sell the mortgages to other institutions, said Esmael Adibi, an economist at Chapman University, south of Los Angeles.
…
Blinder used the Wile E. Coyote character in the old Road Runner cartoons to explain what happened to prices next: “The coyote is running, running until he runs off the mesa, suddenly he’s out there in thin air and stays there for a while — then crash,” he said.
LOL! Blinder is remarkably full of insight for someone with a track record of FOMC participation.
Funny thing is, it appears the best plan the Fed can come up with is a feeble attempt to respike the mortgage lending punch bowl by allowing banks to borrow from them at super low (subsidized) rates and lend it out to home borrowers at record low mortgage lending rates. It won’t work, due to a recent return to traditional prudent underwriting standards after the death of lenders who debauched them (Countrywide, Indymac, Ameriquest and New Century, to name a few).
hello anyone home ?? its not 2006 anymore
13769 Christian Barrett Dr Moorpark CA 93021 4 beds, 3.0 baths, 2,694 sq ft
For Sale: $835,000 See listing website
Value Range: $478,125 - $585,000
30-day change: $1,000
Zestimate updated: 01/16/2009
Last sale and tax info
Sold 06/28/2007: $710,000
2008 Property Tax: $2,959
HaHaHAHAHAHar!!! The prime and Alt-A reset season is upon us and is sure to make certain that home never sells for more than 50 pct of its list price…
test
Remember how the foreign investors were supposed to come in and save high-end U.S. housing markets from falling? I wonder how likely this seems anymore against the backdrop of a global financial catastrophe? The chances seem pretty slim to me, though granted I am a self-professed bear. I am expecting the crash in high-end U.S. housing markets over 2009-2012 to be far worse than the experts expected.
Leaders
World economy
Accelerating downhill
Jan 15th 2009
From The Economist print edition
Why China and Germany need to do more to boost demand
EVERYONE knows that the financial system took a downward dive in mid-September. The failure of Lehman Brothers turned the rich world’s credit crunch into a global calamity, as the international banking system came close to collapse and even the most basic functions of finance, such as trade credit, seized up. To stop this financial breakdown sending the world economy into a tailspin, politicians scrambled with bank-rescue packages and promises of fiscal stimulus. Unfortunately, it seems increasingly clear that they failed. Just as the financial crisis went global at the end of 2008, so large chunks of the world economy went into free-fall.
Industry is in grave trouble. Around the world factory output is plunging at its fastest pace in decades as the consequences of slumping demand have rattled along the supply chain. In the three months to November American industrial production fell at an annualised rate of 16% compared with the three months before. Over the same period Japan’s fell by 21% and Germany’s by 15%. Some emerging economies have done even worse. South Korea’s factory output fell at an annualised rate of 25% in the three months to November, about as fast as in its financial crisis a decade ago.
wtf … why do some posts go through right away, and others languish?
None of these posts have hyperlinks, btw.
I think length of post hasa lot to do with it also.
Short posts come up right away.
Also, if you are new. If you use more than one ID from the same computer… Other reasons.
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