Sales Decline Twelve Straight Months In Bay Area
Dataquick has some California numbers out. “Home sales in the Bay Area continued to slow as price increases dipped into the single digits for the first time in more than two years. A total of 9,745 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the nine-county region last month. That was down 13.8 percent from 11,310 for March last year, according to DataQuick.”
“The year-over-year decline was the twelfth in a row.”
“The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying was $2,958 in March. That was up from $2,889 in February, and up from $2,636 for March a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, mortgage payments are 18 percent higher than they were at the peak of the prior cycle sixteen years ago.”
“Sales were down 22.7 in Napa County, 22.5 percent in Solano County, 18.7 percent in San Mateo County, 17.5 percent in Marin County, 15 percent in San Francisco, 14.9 percent in Alameda, 12.2 percent in Sonoma County, 11.7 percent in Contra Costa County, and 8.9 percent in Santa Clara County.”
The LA Times. “Sales of homes in Southern California declined for the fourth month in a row in March. DataQuick chief analyst John Karevoll, and others contend that current price increases cannot be sustained. They predict that the rate of appreciation could be in the mid-single digits to zero by year’s end.”
“‘Anytime you see a volume drop, the price will be impacted two to three months from now,’ said Michael Davin, VP of a Hermosa Beach-based real estate brokerage.”
“Ventura County’s home prices continue to edge up, but it’s apparent the buying frenzy has cooled. As demand ebbs, builders might start thinking of ways to attract buyers. New-home sales generally serve as a barometer of the market. (Economist) Keitaro Matsuda said industry professionals who sell new homes are the first to act on changes in buyers’ moods. ‘The individuals (homeowners) tend to be slow at adapting,’ he said.”
And from the Daily Bulletin. “In San Bernardino County, the median price of a home in March was $367,000, down 1.6 percent from the record $373,000 set in February. Ryan and Susannah Maddox are hoping that it doesn’t take too long to find a buyer. The Loma Linda couple are in the process of buying a house in Northern California and hope to quickly sell the three-bedroom, two-bathroom house they have owned since October 2004.”
“‘We have a couple of months before we would have a double mortgage payment. We want to avoid that,’ Susannah Maddox said.”
This Orange County link posted by a reader shows why the median continues up in spite of a slowing market. Sales declines by price catagory:
< $400k -53%
$400 to 500k -41%
$500-600k -26%
$600-700k -7.8%
>$700 +6%
Also note the OC defaults are up 69.6%. The OC home sales volume by catagory, year to date:
Single Family Resale -22%
Condo Resale -24%
New Homes 63%
Prices, year to date compared to 2005:
Single Family Resale +14.7%
Condo Resale +14.3%
New Homes -23.2%
From the Christian Science Monitor:
‘Surveys show that Americans are beginning to worry about their rising debt load. Last month, the Experian-Gallup Poll found only 15 percent of Americans thought it was a good time to borrow compared with 24 percent a year ago.’
‘Dennis Jacobe, chief economist at Gallup in Washington says, ‘In fact, 19 percent of Americans now say they are worried about making their monthly payments.’
That table shows down payments of 20% on average or so (I think). That is pretty impressive.
This is not CLTV (combined Loan to Value). It is 1st LTV, just like all DQ reports. That means someone buying with an 80/20 loan will show up as a 20% down payment.
And, I’m assuming that if people are moving up, they have some equity to take with them, which can also contribute to the “down payment”.
“We have a couple of months before we would have a double mortgage payment. We want to avoid that,’ Susannah Maddox said.”
No problem, Susannah, you’re using your head with that double mortgage deal. Everyone’s doing it! Just don’t budge on the price and you’ll be on your way fast.
a lot of folks in CA already have a double mortgage payment, except that it’s only for one house.
Good one!
What’s wrong with a double mortgage payment? If owning one house is good, owning two must be better! You’ll get twice as rich in half the time! Or something like that.
yes! that’s why I said every American should quit his/her day job and own at least 10 homes so everyone will be a billionare in 20 years IF double digit appreciation continues. Why work for $50/hour when owning 10 homes can bring you $1M/year?
You sound like Buck from there is no housing bubble blog.
I say: “Double mortgage payments for everyone!”
Another result of Public Education. And the mayor of LA wants to take over the schools? He can teach economics in Pesos I guess. What say the brethern? So he can steal more of your taxes???
Inventory Stats 4/19/06
Sonoma County MLS: 2828
(Bareis MLS)
Price Reduced: 564
(zip realty)
Sonoma Valley MLS: 291
(GMAC)
Price Reduced: 66
(ziprealty.com)
(Sonoma Valley)
Recently Sold: 3
Sunday, April 16, 2006
Sunday, April 17, 2005
Sold: 8
Recently Sold: 7
Sunday, April 9, 2006
Sunday, April 10, 2005
Sold: 10
Read about Home prices rise as sales decline.
“Gissing, who invests in fixer-uppers and currently owns 10 homes with her husband, said there are still plenty of buyers who can afford her home.
“I don’t know where all this money comes from, but people seem to have it,” Gissing said.”
“He still believes a correction is in the offing but likely will be small and over quickly.”
They’re drinking that damn kool-aid again
“Phil Schaefer, president of the Pacific West Association of Realtors, said home sellers can still ask more for their homes than the last sale in their neighborhood, but should limit the gain to 10 percent.
If they don’t get an offer within 30 days, it’s time to lower the asking price, he said.
“When you see homes on the market for 90 days for the same price, that shows me there is an unrealistic seller,” Schaefer said.”
They’re about to run out of kool-aid. They ran out of brains awhile back.
Meanwhile, live from Sacramento…I’m in an overbuilt McNeighborhood and saw a sign today that said something like “Bulk Sale, 13 Model Homes for Sale.” What’s this? Is a builder really looking for someone to come in and make an offer on 13 homes all at once?
This is starting to sound more and more like Monopoly. I remember how thrilled I was when playing to put lots of green plastic houses up on my streets and then tear them down red plastic hotels.
Do you have a photo of this? I would love to see it!
OT, but CNBC ran a segment this afternoon explaining that baby boomers shouldn’t expect much from their parents (who are spending all their savings on healthcare) and the boomers themselves have saved very little for retirement. On top of that, soon they’re going to discover that the walls of their homes are not actually made of gold.
furthermore, their children are not going to be in any position to support their aging parents
John in VA,
As told on CNBC, do you remember what those baby-boomer inheritence numbers were?
They compared the average inheritence in 1975 against the average inheritence in 2005.
Thanks.
ISTR $37K in 1975 and $27K in 2005. This is in constant dollars, except I forget whether it was constant 1975 dollars or constant 2005 dollars. Knowing CNBC, they probably didn’t specify which.
Of course $37K wouldn’t even be a decent down payment in SoCal nowadays. If we still had down payments.
Oh, c’mon.
$37K? Not enough for a downpayment in California?
Of course it is - for the garage.
Downpayment? What’s that? Don’t they just buy with zero down, interest-only ARMS?
I believe Jack was referring to a multi-family garage.
downpayment? It’s less than the commission.
Ok so Cal ..who says it doesn’t pay to rent.
I have a freind that just rented a Brand spanking new never lived in house (where did we here this before - flip floppers)…for the annual rental value of the “PROPERTY TAXES” ….
I guess the investor flipper group can cover the rest.
Renting is cheap relative to owning, but it’s not that cheap, unless your friend is renting the garage.
If you factor in the interest earned each month from money in the bank (not pissed away on a house overpriced by 100%), you can live close to rent free.
I disagree. Assume a $900K house - monthly tax come in around $1200. It is indeed extremely cheap by all measures. It is cheaper than my apartment rent, plus he lives in a house after all.
I’d like to see an example of a $900,000 house available as a rental for $1200 per month.
Tell me where. I’m having a hell of a time finding a decent place 1300-2000 sq feet in Conejo Valley California for up to $ 2300 per month and will take a townhouse (Westlake,Agoura,Calabassas)
not much available and prices are very high. I’m getting scared as my landlord is selling and I have 2 months more. Beginning to regret selling late 2003.
Also wanted to add I’m limited to where I can live because of custody issues.
Unfortunately, the writers here if San Luis Obispo are still drinking the Realtor(TM) kool-aid.
http://www.sanluisobispo.com/mld/sanluisobispo/14378422.htm
Sorry, I meant IN San Luis Obispo.
“Adjusted for inflation, mortgage payments are 18 percent higher than they were at the peak of the prior cycle sixteen years ago.”
Yeah, but what about Google money!? That is going to save us all.
If California goes, then this whole house of cards has to come crashing down. Unfortunately, I personally am not seeing any significant price reductions, although I agree the frenzy is over and at least prices don’t seem to be going up anymore.
My market is rental properties, and I still can’t find anything that cash flows, not even in Bakersfield, anymore.
There isn’t a lot of new supply in the Bay Area–prices may come back a little bit, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they are pretty much stagnant for the next several years after an initial 5-15% drop. Inflation adjusted, the prices will come down, but on a nominal basis, perhaps not much after that initial drop.
Rental -
I’m guessing there will be some towns and neighborhoods hit hard in the Bay Area… and others? Well, not so much. That will even be true when you start contrasting specific SF neighborhoods, even blocks, and whether you are talking SFH, “luxury” condos, dotcom relic “loft condos” (concrete pillboxes) or your garden variety 70’s construction shoebox-sh**box condo.
It will be interesting to see.
patience grasshopper
Santa Clara County inventory passed the 4,000 mark today. In May of 2005 (when I started tracking Santa Clara County) we had an inventory in the 3600 range. So we’ve already blown by the 5/05 inventory numbers, and I’m assuming we’re going to see more if this week’s inventory increases are any indication.
Additionally, I have to disagree with the Bay Area not being prime for a large correction just because there hasn’t been massive building. There haven’t been massive pay increases to support the home prices here. Rents are still cheap by comparison. A 30% fall would be a drop in the bucket.
I agree generally that home prices will need to track wages (as will rents), but once you’ve shaken loose those that need to sell (who will get whacked with a big price reduction), there are a lot of folks that simply don’t need to sell–and they have it in their head that their house is worth what they thought it was worth in June 2005. No one can afford it at that price, so it won’t sell. Volume will drop to almost nothing.
I know some people who have been in the residential homebuilding business on the Peninsula for the past 25-30 years–historically, even in the worst times, the pattern has been a step function on a nominal basis because of the lack of new supply.
I’m talking about Menlo Park/Palo Alto/Los Altos–other places in the Bay Area, this may not be entirely the case. Regardless, even if the housing market is just flat, I’m content to rent and keep my down payment working at greater than zero in other places while I pick my spot to buy . . .
A depression has a way of making more than the usual number of homeowners “need to sell”.
Those numbers are not that bad considering inventory was razor thin last year. I would say Santa Clara is a lot stronger than the East Coast.
No doubt SC is stronger than many places (Phoenix, Vegas, etc.). However, inventory is moving up and quickly. I’m curious to see where we will be in May - for my own purposes since I’m doing my own YOY data tracking.
400 units in a little less than a year or ~12% is not “moving up quickly.
Yeah but 100 units added in the past two days IS moving up quickly. It’s all in the details.
They mention my area; ““Ventura County’s home prices continue to edge up, but it’s apparent the buying frenzy has cooled. As demand ebbs, builders might start thinking of ways to attract buyers.”
Last week Riverpark opened its sales office. I’ve chosen Riverpark as the Enron/pets.com of the housing bubble. 2800 DUs 700 acres, mixed use, new urbanist nightmare with prices out of this world. 1400 sf, $600,000 with taxes and fees running $10,000/yr. See: http://exurbannation.blogspot.com/2006/04/smuggie-oxnard-again-sigh.html for the gruesome details.
“Rents are still cheap by comparison. A 30% fall would be a drop in the bucket. ”
So right Lunar… I can tell you right off Salaries and Wages are still being kept down from the details I see at work. We can expect to see 50% if not 55% cut. There is further evidence of job errosion due to M&A Activity. Oracle is saying goodbye to peoplesoft workers, soon to be Portal SW around 500. Symantec has done the same for Veritas. Others still to come.
We’re still seeing steady manufacturing layoffs in this area too. Three companies moving offshore announced just this week. Actually one is Japanese company eliminating U.S. office.
“There isn’t a lot of new supply in the Bay Area–prices may come back a little bit, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they are pretty much stagnant for the next several years after an initial 5-15% drop.”
If you check around you will find new construction in Santa Clara, Sunnyvale, Milpitas, and San Jose. I drive around the old tech parks. They are being bulldozed into new homes. So the question of limited land or supply is a mute point. You be surprised just how much new construction has been put up recently.
Right. My wife thought there was an earthquake. It turned out to be the condo construction site next to us.
Yes, there is PLENTY of new supply in the areas you listed. Drive through any of these areas and you will see it (just watch for the sign spinners!).
And don’t forget Condotino…
http://poll.gallup.com/content/?ci=22468
7 out of 10 consumer think RE bubble will bust! Gallup Poll
Than why in the hell is anybody buying at these prices I wonder .
those are the remaining 3 of 10
However, 6 in 10 still expect increases in their location.
They live in special areas!
Last year around 200 listings in my zip code. Now it’s over 700. Prices aren’t falling they’re just where they were last summer. Rentals are going up. Meanwhile I make money on oil stocks while flippers sweat and keep holding for top dollar. One flipper I know moved his mom into his flop to get some rent money. Hey what are mom’s for?
Gallup Poll
Another funny thing about this poll is that 7 out of 10 think the national bubble will bust in the next year but only 31% think that thier local market will go bust, just every other market. Typical homeowners, they always think thier home or market is special.
Both could be true. A “national” bubble could pop, taking down the big metro areas, while the bulk of homeowners in midwestern and southern cities, towns, and suburbs may not feel it. It’s all on how you parse “national.”
I’ve followed Ben’s blog for several months from my home in a small town in north Louisiana and have thought several times that I’m glad I’ve not seen all the crazy behavior describered herein occuring locally.
Tonight I visited my small, conservative community bank’s staid web site and was greeted with, “The check book said No. The House said YES!” And continues, “come see us today for your home equity line of credit … introductory apr of 4.49%”.
This can’t be a good sign …
All the more reason why I ignore those who claim there is no housing bubble just some local froth. The bubble is affecting just about everybody, everywhere.
Sonoma County MLS listings progression
3/20/06 = 1742
3/26/06 = 1766
4/03/06 = 1888
4/19/06 = 2828
Look at just the last two entries above….940 in 16 days! :-O
Sonoma Valley MLS listings progression
2/14/06 = 172
2/14/06 = 183
2/24/06 = 193
2/25/06 = 200
2/27/06 = 214
3/01/06 = 219
3/04/06 = 220
3/12/06 = 230
3/20/06 = 236
3/26/06 = 238
4/03/06 = 268
4/19/06 = 291
The Super Bowl was 2/5/06.
Where are all those crazy buyers that were supposed to materialize after the big game? Must be Seahawks fans - “waiting till next year.”
[Actually, the Seahawks are going to be good again - they could win a couple Super Bowls before it make sense to be buying...]
All the buyers are caught up in the Bonds steroid scandal. They’ll be back once we get Barry straightened out!
How many people though in Sonoma county? And how many months of sales does that represent?
Those aren’t the houses sold Brianb… those are the number of houses listed. For Sonoma Valley- we have been averaging no more than 5 per week since January 06… some weeks it is one… two weeks ago it was 7… last week it was 3. All the weeks have been significantly down from the previous week in 2005 with the lowest % down being about 30% and that was early in January… February and March it has been closer to a 50% haircut off the sales from the same week the previous year. As for listings… last year this time we had about 1/4 of the listings.
I will have to go pull some data to look at the sales figures for Sonoma County as a whole- but they have been significantly down as well in most areas. I only recently started keeping tabs on the county as a whole when some readers emailed me asking for more county information. The March numbers for Sonoma County haven’t been released yet, I heard not till the 25th. I wonder if that is to massage the poo that is the data before releasing it? I notice other counties have their data already… but not us… hmmm… I know the month of February showed in Sonoma Valley a big goose egg 0 for number of condos sold… and since there were a few realtwhore articles boasting the benefits of buying a condo in the last few weeks, I bet the sales number for March is running real close to February’s number.
Brianb- Sonoma County Population is: 468,450
Sonoma Valley population is: 9,600
Number of households… in the county: 172,403
As for representation of sales (I had another post answering this question but it is missing…) Anyway- those numbers are not for houses sold… other than the Sonoma Valley stats above… the three sold last week and the seven sold the week before. Since January 2006 Sonoma Valley has averaged about five sales per week… down about 50% overall from last year. While the listings are about 4 X the listings from last year.
The county sales figures I don’t have fully calculated yet… because I just started looking at full county stats based on some requests from readers.
178K houses and only 3K for sale? That sounds pretty tight.
What does a 2000 sq foot nice house on 1/4 acre go for in Sonoma county? Sounds beautiful.
napa county has seemed to be resistant to the burst until just this week. Inventory up 10% since beginning of the month. a report indicates 22% drop in sales (YOY, I believe). House across the street on the market for 6 mos just reduced price by 10K (ha!). Nothing much moving but all around you can see folks polishing up for the listing season.
two houses on my mom’s street in Napa have for sale signs that now seem part of the landscaping… with big price reduced on them… nothin’ doin’ they aren’t moving. Then house just around the corner had an IN ESCROW sign for a few months… and then one day the sign came down and the same day it was replaced with an OPEN HOUSE sign.
there are some mcmansions just across the street kitty corner to that house that don’t seem to be selling quickly either.
also… my daughter who is in school in napa reports that her friend in her class is the daughter of a local napa real estate agent- and not only has he said business is SLOW… but prices are coming down… and now is the beginning of the decline of the market- and that he doesn’t estimate it will come back up until somewhere around 2010
From the article:
Nearly a 25% price increase in 1 year! That is not a typo. 1 year. A truly absolutely amazing stat.
SB–for those not familiar with the area–has:
1) 120 heat from May to September
2) terrible air quality (smog blowing in from LA)
3) twice the national crime rate
4) 2+ hour traffic filled commute to LA
Yet, we have 25% appreciation? in. one. year?
Either everyone unable to afford buying in OC/LA is “settling” for SB.
Or, this is rampant speculation at its finest. No way this can continie. And now I am more convinced we will have declines now that the speculative frenzy is over.
Speculation SB is the last great plane saw some amzing commercial deals the last time I was thru there about 6,7 months ago. Housing is still relatively cheap but you have to be on meth to make that drive back and forth to L.A. everyday
There’s plenty of meth out here for you, too.
SB area is, to me and everyone I know out here, the absoulute WORST place in southern california to live. it’s got all the crime, ugliness, and depressing feel of the worst parts of LA without any of the cool stuff that LA has. i have a friend who lives out there and every time i visit him i feel relieved to come back home.
Absolutely. Inner city San Bernardino, is just as ghetto as the crumbling rust belt and great lakes cities.
The irony is that it’s surrounded by such picturesque mountains. If you can see them through the smog.
I thought that SB was Santa Barbara???
Big miss in earnings and lowered expectations at MDC late tonight. I guess they did not want their stock traded in after hours.
Stock should take a NICE haircut tommorw!
Just checked PHX inventory. WOW! 600+ new listings added today! They must have been slow in updating the website.
Somewhat OT:
One reason Vegas may be booming is California HELOC people taking vacations there. As that money dries up maybe the casinos will start slowing down and laying people off.
I can’t figure out why people would repeatedly go to that place. It’s a hell hole. Maybe the shows are OK, but isn’t most of the money gambling? Harder to gamble when you aren’t HELOCing out 50K in equity every few years.
You could say the same about sales of big SUVs and whatnot. All large purchases are facilitated by HELOC money.
From Realtytimes.com:
MARCH 2006: Phoenix is showing signs of cooling off considerably, especially when compared to the last few years. I am a National Real Estate Investment Advisor, and I make it my business and that of my associates to try to get our heads about as many markets as possible, and Phoenix has been in our cross-hairs for several years now. It has been a favorite of ours for the last two years, but with the current over-supply of investor owned property in the metro area, most specifically in the Southeast market including Queen Creek (the most severely affected), Chandler, Gilbert, Mesa and the adjacent cities.
There are definite signs of price erosion in the SE areas, and I suspect that will affect pricing across the metro area, especially in the sub-$300,000 market where most of the glut is. If you are in Phoenix and have a neutral or positive cash flow, I would recommend you HOLD your property because I see the long term prospects for the Greater Phoenix area to be good. If you are looking to enter the Phoenix market to invest, I would suggest you look to either Albuquerque or Boise. Yes, they are not the warm climates of Vegas and Phoenix and Tucson, but your investments should be based on anticipated performance, not where you’re going to visit once or twice a year
The builders are getting nervous in PHX. They’re struggling to hold the official sales price up, while discounting via incentives to attract the buyers. Most are offering $50K in upgrades and a free pool if pushed. Their actual costs on these incentives is around $40K. So an indirect price reduction of $40K has already taken place since the peak, but doesn’t show up in the official stats. If they crack and have to drop the sales prices, the cancellations from the backlog will start rolling in.
Here’s a little trivia: the backlog numbers the builders put out are unaudited. They can claim any number they want, as long as its “reasonable”
It is crazy how fast Phoenix got expensive. 2 years ago I have to go there from LA once a month for business and homes were still very cheap and it seemed by the end of the year prices had doubled, but nothing demographically had changed, how can it not be a bubble.
Also does any body remember Phoenix in 1990, it was one of the biggest bust RE markets and some people were walking away from homes. I wonder if that will repeat.
crazy–yup, i remember. 4 br 2500 sq+pool bank had at 88k. and couldnt unload. repeat? ..no history never repeats, but it’ll be mighty similar. My expectation is that the kaboom will be far, far worse this time.
crispy–I haven’t been out to the SE side (except Maricopa) but did do a bit of driving around on the west side–Buckeye,Avondale, etc. this past weekend. Shipped a couple a pics to Ben but missed his update on 4/15. Perhaps this week. Street corners with signs for 10, 12, 14 developments. Went thru several randomly picked residential streets and saw sale signs on EVERY ONE. I would guesstimate that about 10% of the homes were for sale/lease. Friggin amazing.
On my way back to the OC, took a detour out to that Tartesso development off of I-10. (www.tartesso.com). Talk about WAY in the hell in gone! It’s out on the opposite side of the nuke plant. Mind you, it was mid day on Sunday, but didn’t see another car between the freeway turnoff and the street into the development (3miles). Drove thru, saw a grand total of two unbuilt lots with ’sold’ signs on em. NONE of the others–lots, or houses nearing completion, marked as sold. I GUARANTEE that this is gonna be a ghost town in two years. amazing.
ejamie, San Bernandino is the worst place to live. Heck, its called the ‘welfare capital of America’. Every other person lives on food stamps. So why the 25% increase? That’s because we are living in unreal times. I can’t explain it, but the people living in San Bernandino can’t even afford a $150k, let alone a $300k plus house. My father-in-law has a business in San Bernandino and most of his clients, who own $350k home, bounce checks on him every day. Go figure. We have sued several of these people and have placed liens on their property, and still we can’t collect. The world is upside down. I going to start throwing away my econ, finance and accounting books. The fundamentals are dead WRONG in this market place.
“…If you are in Phoenix and have a neutral or positive cash flow, I would recommend you HOLD your property because I see the long term prospects for the Greater Phoenix area to be good…”
Kind of reminds me of the ol’ dot com days
Anyone saw yesterday’s Nova on global dimming? For much of the past century, more than half of the effect of global warming has been masked by global dimming that air particles from pollution combined with water to form many tiny mirrors and reflect over 10% of sun light back to the space. During the 3 days from Sept 11 to 13 2001 when all commercial flights in the US were cancelled, the temperature fluctuation jumped over 1 degree all over the US when the particle pollution from airplanes were mostly eliminated. The scale of this is huge!
What it implies is global dimming is far stronger than most scientists realized and since global dimming masks over half of global warming, it also means scientists have greatly underestimated the effect of global warming. New model that now predicts sea level may rise 25 meter by the end of this century and many areas in the US will be under water. The whole state of Florida will be gone, so will NYC, Washington DC, Louisiana, SF, and most coastal towns, where the most expensive homes are.
This is great news since now we know we can mitigate global warming by flying more airplanes. Oops, wait a minute! Oil is $70+ a barrel, isn’t it? And the nut in Iran just made some alarming comments re: oil valuation, didn’t he?
Problem is particle pollution kills people within a decade or two, so most developed countries have already reduced that kind of pollution. CO2 pollution doesn’t kill right away and Bush doesn’t give a damn about it, yet it will trigger several positive feedback loops that will eventually kill all humans.
When? Do you have a timeline? How much do we have to reduce CO2 emissions to prevent this?
What happens when you throw in increased volcanic activity into the models (we’re due)?
particulate pollution for everyone!!
cool. my dump near the laguna mountain in san diego county will be beach front.
Goleta, I LOVE your posts! They always make me think! I just learn so much from people here at this blog!
goleta–thanks, missed that program. Haven’t been following the sci pubs as closely as I used to. Well, that really sucks, particularly in that in some respects, it will give folks a stupid argument as to why they shouldn’t reduce pollution. Won’t really matter, cause if either the base global warming estimates or this one are anywhere near the mark, we’ll rapidly get to the Oh SHIT stage. Saw a Scientific American article about 3 or 4 years back discussing ocean currents and how sensitive they would be to temp changes. Imagine Europe without the Gulf stream. Bbbrrrrr.
Acutally, FLA & LA won’t be completely gone. But we’ll be able to lump em together as the new FLA keys.
Time to buy that property in Alaska. Bit o warming, bit o sea level rise, and the oil money doled out to the residents. hmmm
There is really good article on whether the inventions in the Final 12 of American Inventor is are already on the market at
[url]http://www.americaninventorspot.com/node/684[/url] in case anyone is interested.
How long would you suggest? just curious when you think someone can now make a profit by holding?
Simmsays…
http:www.AmericanInventorSpot.com
“If you are looking to enter the Phoenix market to invest, I would suggest you look to either Albuquerque or Boise. Yes, they are not the warm climates of Vegas and Phoenix and Tucson, but your investments should be based on anticipated performance, not where you’re going to visit once or twice a year”
Please tell the RealtyTimes people that flippers are NOT wanted in Albuquerque. It is a nice place, and has a pleasant climate. I don’t need my new home area destroyed by these phucking flippers. That is why I left Clowanfornia to begin with.
What will all of the earthquake talk do to the Bay area. I am so happy to have left this place.
Ben, may be interesting topic -how housing affecting migration - especially calif and NY metro areas:
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/20/us/20census.html
so how many here in $500k+ assets (affluent) category? w/ conservative assessment of home equity.
—–
The number of very rich people in the US grew last year at the fastest pace in at least a decade as their moves into international stockmarkets, real estate and alternative investments paid off.
The number of households with $5m (€4m) or more in investable assets – excluding the family home – rose by 26 per cent to a record 930,000, according to a study by Spectrem Group. That is the biggest jump since Spectrem began its survey in 1996. The number of millionaires rose by 11 per cent, to a record 8.3m – the second biggest jump in the decade since they were surveyed.
The overall affluent market – households with $500,000 or more – rose by 7 per cent to a record 14m. This group fared the worst in the wake of the stockmarket collapse, with their numbers falling sharply from 2000. Last year was the first time their total passed that of their peak in 1999. Catherine McBreen, a managing director at Spectrem, said: “It’s been a great couple of years for America’s millionaires … the stockmarket, which posted solid improvement in 2005, was one reason for the advance. However, for the wealthiest Americans it appears the increased use of international markets and alternative investments were key drivers of their improvement.”
George Walper, president of Sprectrem, said the group had questioned respondents on their investments and returns, and also examined the returns of international markets and alternative investments to ensure the veracity of the results. In a sudden reversal of their longstanding affinity for their domestic market, US investors last year put more than $130bn into international mutual funds, more than three times the amount they put into US funds.
Most overseas markets performed better than the US market, so their switch paid off.
Hedge funds returned on average only slightly more than the US stockmarket last year, but investable real estate and some private equity investments returned more than this.
Affluent households, on average, held close to half their money in assets – stocks, bonds and alternative investments – and a larger than usual amount of cash, Spectrem said.
The affluent reported a greater satisfaction with their financial advisers than in recent years, but this was still short of the highest level previously reported. Those who used advisers were shifting back to use full-service brokers as their main advisers
Thanks Miami Renter: I had been hoping to come across this info on newly affluent and what was creating their wealth.
It didn’t surprise me that they were shifting to foreign markets but seeing that did add to my sense of foreboding.
Another comment about the San Bernardino area. My wife and I bought our first house in Riverside during the last housing downturn. We bought in ‘92 for $135K and sold in ‘98 for (you guessed it) $135K. The market stayed flat for the entire 6 years we lived there. We felt lucky to get the $135K.
The entire Inland Empire ALWAYS ranks in the top 10 worst polluted areas in the U.S. You can’t even see the huge, nearby mountains in the Summer because of all the smog.
The Midwest is looking better and better every day…I can’t wait until I can leave CA…golden state my bee-hind.
“OT, but CNBC ran a segment this afternoon explaining that baby boomers shouldn’t expect much from their parents (who are spending all their savings on healthcare) and the boomers themselves have saved very little for retirement. On top of that, soon they’re going to discover that the walls of their homes are not actually made of gold. ”
Yes…And imagine some younger $$ savers even trying to tell their over-spending parents…”hey Dad, Mom, I’m young and trying to save as much as I can to live a halfway decent life in retirement. Now, do you really think I should have to pay to keep you comfortable in your twighlight years because you choose to recklessly spend and borrow now?”
I suspect the above is a conversation that SHOULD take place, but probably won’t with most. My girlfriend’s parents and grandparents are completely fiscally retarded. It makes me sick, because my girlfriend’s values are so culturally entrenched, i.e., kids take care of seniors. Sad, actually…they (parents/grandparents) appear to hold on to the cultural norm of “respect and take care of your elders” but appear to throw fiscal responsibility out the door.
My view on this issue may very well throw a huge wedge in our relationship. Bummer.
DOC
Kalaidescope = wonderful decision. Make sure to flush when you get to the border. CA has become a sewer.