Those Cash Registers Now Tend To Be Liabilities
The Times Delta reports from California. “Jeff and Brittany Jenkins ran up against a hard new reality for Tulare County homeowners last year. Planning a move back to Phoenix to be close to Jeff’s parents — his father had been diagnosed with cancer — the Jenkins put their Visalia home up for sale in June, asking for a price they hoped would help them buy a home the same size or larger in Arizona. Jeff transferred his job to Phoenix and the couple and their three children moved in with Jeff’s parents. But the Visalia home sat on the market for months. Offers were $45,000 lower than what the Jenkins paid for the house in September 2006, and less than what they owed on their mortgage.”
“‘We wouldn’t even have been able to buy a house with that [price],’ Brittany Jenkins said.”
“In October, the Jenkins took their home off the market and a month later moved back to Visalia. Hundreds of Tulare County homeowners who are looking or needing to sell are facing the same stark landscape. Where as little as three years ago those homes would have been cash registers, selling at peak — some say inflated — prices, now they tend to be liabilities.”
“‘It was frustrating,’ Brittany Jenkins said. ‘We hadn’t even realized the market had gotten that bad.’”
“Nicole Ball and her husband, Eric…bought their northwest Visalia home in 2005 for $405,000. But then a series of things happened: Eric’s job required him to relocate to Los Angeles; the couple’s adjustable-rate mortgage reset, doubling their monthly payment; and declining home values wiped out their equity, making it impossible to refinance. Their mortgage holder wouldn’t modify their loan, Nicole Ball said. In October, they sold their house for $255,000, a so-called ’short sale.’”
“The Balls and their four children now are renting a home in Santa Clarita, saving up and waiting for their credit to improve before trying to buy another home, Nicole Ball said. ‘I sit down with [these homeowners], and they’re in shock that they’re going to end up selling their houses for so much less [than their asking price],’ said Rani Calderon, the broker-owner of Elite Properties in Visalia.”
The Fresno Bee. “Home prices in the Fresno area have plunged below the national average. The median price of sold houses in December in Fresno and Clovis was $154,000, a 39.6% decline from a year previously, said Jared Martin, president of the Fresno Association of Realtors. Pending sales — transactions that hadn’t closed — carried a median price of $144,840.”
“‘We’re below the national average [of $181,000], and we are in California, not Nebraska,’ said Patrick Conner, owner of one of Fresno’s largest residential real estate firms.”
The Recordnet. “San Joaquin County unemployment jumped in tandem with the state of California last month. Because of 2,000 lost jobs, the county’s unemployment rate hit 13 percent in December. Gabriel Hernandez, a Stockton electrician, has been feeling the pain of the slowdown in the region’s economy in recent weeks. Work completely evaporated in mid-December, he said. ‘It’s probably been the worst three months in my 10 years in the trade,’ he said.”
“In the financial sector, JP Morgan Chase Bank laid off 60 workers in the county last month in the continuing wake of its September buyout of Washington Mutual. Not that there haven’t been some bright spots. With foreclosure sales still booming month after month in the area, PMZ Real Estate has boosted staffing by 25 in 12 months to 90 employees in Stockton, said Ben Balsbaugh, residential sales manager for the office.”
The Marin Independent Journal. “Marin County’s jobless rate inched up to 5.4 percent last month while California’s rate jumped to 9.3 percent, capping a tumultuous year of massive job losses and a housing slump that has struck most of the country. Marin’s unemployment rate remains the lowest of any county in California. But Barbara Miller of Mill Valley, who works as a self-employed consultant, said she doubts the state numbers provide an accurate picture of how the recession is affecting Marin residents.”
“‘I don’t think it is really reflective of just how hard people are struggling in Marin given that so many of us are self-employed,’ Miller said. ‘I can’t sign up for unemployment, but my income last year was less than a quarter of what it has been for the last four or five years. I’m struggling.’”
The ee Sentinel. “With the month’s loss of 3,900 jobs, one in 10 eligible workers in Santa Cruz County was out of work. In Watsonville, where seasonal agricultural work drops off dramatically every winter, 21.1 percent of the population was out of work by the end of December. ‘We are most definitely seeing a rise in the number of people coming to our department for food stamps,’ said Linda Kerner, a spokeswoman for Santa Cruz County Human Services Department.”
The San Gabriel Valley News. “Los Angeles County’s unemployment rate nearly reached double digits in December, soaring to 9.9 percent, the state Employment Development Department reported Friday. That was a full percent higher than November’s jobless rate and nearly twice as high as it was a year earlier.”
“Frank Tripepi, La Puente’s interim city manager, said the current economic downturn is unlike anything he’s seen before. ‘I’ve been in business for 37 or 38 years, and this is like a perfect storm,’ he said. ‘Just about every sector of the economy has crashed at the same time and no one’s lending any money.’”
“‘It’s not just retail that’s the problem,’ said Nancy D. Sidhu, chief economist for the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. ‘We’re seeing increasing job losses in construction and the finance industry, as well as losses in manufacturing. A lot of manufacturing, like furniture making, is tied to housing.’”
“Baldwin Park is working with the city of El Monte to secure a grant to help refurbish and sell off foreclosed homes in the city and prevent blight, said Mayor Manuel Lozano.”
The LA Daily News. “Nearly one in 10 workers in Los Angeles County was unemployed in December, the highest jobless level in nearly 14 years and a sign the recession is deepening, state officials said Friday. Jerry Nickelsberg, senior economist at UCLA’s Anderson Forecast, said the massive loss of retail jobs demonstrates that this is a consumer-led recession, which is uncommon. ‘It’s a very sharp downturn, and we’ve had sharp downturns before. But this recession is different from other recessions,’ he said of the consumer impact.”
“About 1.7 million Californians were looking for work last month, an increase of 166,000 from November and 653,000 from December 2007. About 785,200 were laid off and 125,300 chose to leave their job.
The construction sector, hit hard by the housing slump and foreclosures, accounted for the most job cuts over the past year- 92,600 positions, a 10.8 percent annual drop.”
“‘We’re not finished with the downturn yet,’ Nickelsberg said. ‘There is more to go, to be sure.’”
The Press Enterprise. “Inland Southern California’s unemployment rate climbed to 10.1 percent in December, the first time it has been in double-digits in more than 13 years. There were 87,800 construction jobs in the Inland area in December, the state estimated. In the middle of 2006, when about 131,000 people worked in construction, virtually anyone who could hold a shovel could get work.”
“Carlos Gomez, a construction worker who specializes in concrete, said he has been laid off for the second time in about six months. ‘It’s bad,’ said Gomez, 26, of Riverside. ‘There’s just no work out there.’”
The County Sun. “People aren’t surprised, given the economic blows chiding the financial, housing and retail industries throughout San Bernardino and Riverside counties. The sad part is, Inland Empire employers will keep slashing jobs before 2009 is over, some experts say.”
“‘We’re finding more and more people who are unemployed for the first time in their lives, and they don’t know what to do,’ said Patti Roberts, spokeswoman for the state’s employment department. ‘There are a lot of people given the double challenge of not only being unemployed, but being unemployed in a profession they can’t go back to … like the mortgage industry.’”
“We asked Randall Lewis his thoughts on the Inland Empire’s housing market. The Upland-based Lewis Group of Cos., a family-owned company founded in 1955 in Claremont, sold Lewis Homes - its home-building business - to what is now KB Home. Q: Some experts say that when the Inland Empire’s downtrodden housing market recovers, it won’t be a booming recovery, and it could take up to 10 years to heal. What’s your opinion?”
“A: The 10-year prediction is overly pessimistic. It could happen, but I don’t think it will…What no one saw was the perfect storm coming. People didn’t connect the dots in the U.S. and world economies, and with these big financial institutions going down in a matter of weeks. It wasn’t even in the worst-case scenarios. A lot of institutions were arrogant, thinking, ‘We can do anything.’”
Inside Bay Area. “At least three major residential-retail projects deemed to be important catalysts for the downtown’s revival have toppled into separate mortgage defaults that together total $140 million. The loan defaults have jolted the financial prospects for the downtown Oakland projects that, combined, would bring nearly 300 residential units to the city’s urban center. The projects were all originally devised as for-sale condominium developments.”
“‘Clearly Oakland is not immune to the soft economy, the problems with the credit markets and the slow housing sector,’ said Ken Meyersieck, managing partner with the Oakland office of commercial realty brokerage Colliers International.”
“(A) survey, released by RealFacts, a rental industry research company based in Novato, claims that renters throughout the country should have an easier time finding rental housing and end up paying less than they might have a year ago. But, not necessarily in Santa Cruz, where occupancy rates in the larger properties have averaged 96.5 percent and rents have averaged $1,637.”
“For the newly established Second Street Commons, a building that looks out on the Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk, vacancies have been a huge problem and rents were reduced last month, according to the property manager Jeri Sargent. The 44-unit complex opened in September but by the end of November, just 14 units were rented. The units are small — 230-300 square feet with kitchenettes and ‘very large bathrooms.’ In addition to a few units earmarked as low-income units, rents were as much as $1,200 and were reduced to $895-$1,095 per month; parking is $100 more.”
“‘I cringe every time I have to say those words,’ Sargent said.”
The Times Herald. “A pair of sisters, formerly of Vallejo, face more than 40 years in prison and more than $1 million in fines after being indicted on mortgage fraud charges, Acting U.S. Attorney Lawrence G. Brown announced Thursday. A federal grand jury returned a five-count indictment charging Ralondria Stafford, 34, of San Francisco, and Necole Ward, 30, of Las Vegas, with crimes relating to a mortgage fraud scheme carried out here between 2005 and 2006. The sisters operated Vallejo’s RN Realtors, through which, according to the indictment, they conspired to commit wire and bank fraud and engaged in money laundering.”
“The indictment alleges that between July 2005 and August 2006, the sisters used straw buyers to buy Vallejo properties. The buyers were offered $5,000 for the use of their name and financial information and were told the purchase would be in name only and that Stafford would buy the properties back within a year, according to the indictment.”
“‘Mortgage fraud has emerged as a major law enforcement priority in the wake of the housing market decline,’ Brown said. ‘As today’s indictment against these two former Realtors reflects, we will continue to give priority to those cases perpetrated by industry professionals.’”
The Bakersfield Californian. “A new lawsuit against Crisp, Cole & Associates alleges widespread fraud among appraisers, accountants, a homebuilder and others who worked with — or allegedly worked with — the defunct Bakersfield real estate company. The suit from the former Fremont Investment & Loan — now Fremont Reorganization Corp. — says fake employment information and fudged appraisals were submitted with seven loan applications it funded in 2005 and 2006.”
“In one example, Crisp’s wife, Jennifer Crisp, claimed to make $25,500 a month as a self-employed consultant. The house, at 8702 Oak Hills Ave., was appraised at $660,000. Jennifer Crisp was loaned the full sale amount, $659,340.”
“David Crisp, whose real estate sales license was revoked by regulators last fall, said Wednesday he is ‘just trying to get my life back together.’ ‘I’m trying to pick up the pieces to pay everybody back,’ Crisp said, ‘but I can’t do that when the newspaper keeps blasting me.’”
The Sacramento Bee. “The economy got you gripped in its clutches? Feeling stressed out by the endless news of layoffs, buyouts and bankruptcies? A San Francisco creative agency has just the fix: Squeeze-the-Banker dolls.”
“Deemed the ultimate stress-buster for troubled times, the squeezable dolls come in likenesses of three familiar Wall Street names: Alan, Ben and Henry. As in, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, current Chairman Ben Bernanke and former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.”
“The stress-ball dolls were dreamed up a month ago by the partners at Creative Feed, a digital ad agency with offices in New York and San Francisco. Partner Arthur Ceria said the dolls are an antidote for Americans who have seen their 401(k) shrink ‘to a 41(k).’ ‘You can only laugh and rebuild,’ he said. ‘That’s what we’ve all gotta do.’”
‘The San Juan Unified School District could see it coming. Four hundred more students on average have been applying each month for free and reduced-price meals this school year. In better economic times, Food Service Director Susan Stewart said she sees a flurry of applications at the beginning of the year, and a few here and there as the year progresses.’
‘Not so this year. “There’s story after story of hardship,” said Stewart, who reviews families’ applications for the program.’
I could have posted a dozen more articles about the employment situation in California. I know there are some posters here that seem to revel in the situation this country faces, but I’ve said all along that people that cheer for a serious recession haven’t lived through one.
We had one in Texas when I was young. At first, lots of people hoped oil and real estate would bounce back and save our necks, but economics don’t work that way. We had a bubble and it didn’t come back.
What is frustrating to me is that the ongoing debate is headed by the fools that got us in this situation. Housing isn’t going to lead us anywhere. The fact is we’ve had the largest financial mania in history. It’s not going to return, and we better start working on how we will work and live in the future. Nobody can turn the clock back, and hoping that housing will lead a recovery is just as futile wishing oil would rebound in the 80’s.
And one more debate this situation answers; back in late 2005/06, a lot of trolls here insisted that when housing prices went down, the Fed would simply lower rates and prices would hold or go up. Some like myself pointed out that if the Fed was cutting rates, it meant we were in a recession, which was hardly a good time to buy a house. Now we can see clearly that rate cuts have done nothing to keep prices from falling.
I bought one of those 80’s post oil patch/real estate bust houses next door in New Iberia. An absolutely gorgeous house for $100K. I only lost $15K on it two years later. It could only go up, right?
Well, I do think that will be a recovery at some point. But you’re right, housing will not be the engine that leads the recovery. The people that are planning on that will get a rude surprise.
The Big Question is: What will be the sector that *does* lead the way out of this recession?
That’s probably a topic of its own.
The Big Question is: What will be the sector that *does* lead the way out of this recession?
Well, it certainly won’t be the “War Sector” as we have
1. The war in Iraq
2. The war in Afganistan
3. The war on Terror
4.The war on savers and renters
5.The war on the Taxpayers
I don’t see any real winners or leaders there.
Maybe some fool will buy a Hummer and save us all
6. The war on drugs
7. The war on atheists
My guess: The successor energy base to black gold.
Are you talking about productive economy or blowing another bubble?
Let’s see..biotech continually comes up. Always fails.
Nanotech was a runner for a while. Haven’t seen much about that as of late.
Tech: Always good for a push, but haven’t we reached a certain level of saturation? Do I really need to text on the crapper?
Green/Green tech: Pushing it hard but nobody can really figure out how to make real money on it long term without tearing everything down and starting over. Bastiat is a real bitch sometimes.
I think we’re going to go to the “just keep ‘em busy” economy. Idle hands are the tools of the devil.
I wanna be the guy with the balloon that scares pigeons away from building awnings!
Be more creative!
Bankrupcy law practices are already making a mint. Trial lawyers will be busy for years with this financial collapse fallout (and an Obama admin won’t tie their hands, for sure). As noted above, the discount brokers dealing in foreclosures are hiring.
And look at Dave Ramsey. He’s been doing okay through the 2000’s, but things are really looking up for him now. Instead of shilling for mattress retailers he can now shill for his own empire of debt counselors, “grocery game” knockoffs, personal finance seminars, and his “ELP” network of affiliated insurance salesmen, Realtors™, and stockbrokers. Yes, if you make commissions on trading assets for rubes, Dave wants to talk to you!
I like his radio show, but his shilling for the RE industry (and even worse, carrying water for mutual funds and stock brokers) makes me want to hurl.
Tech ??
I think really good voice recognition technology (not what we have today) could be a big push…Anyone know who leads in that area ?? IBM ??
Corporate America isn’t into Research these days. Atleast not research that can’t be turned into a profitable product by the end of the fiscal year.
Contrast this with companies like Honda which has been investing in robotics for decades. I just can’t see Corporate America investing in something like ASIMO (which is on display in Disneyland).
scdave
NUAN is into voice recognition.
Just saying.
The only way we can recover is to bring American jobs back to the US. The “jobs” industry is the only one that can save us.
There is one good piece of news, Ben. A few months ago you were complaining that these newspapers were all running stories about the fall in house prices and people advocating policies to support real estate. You thought that the focus needed to be on the recession and unemployment. Now that unemployment in California is approaching 10%, the newspapers in the state are finally paying attention to important things.
Ben, have you been approached or approached the MSM on the housing bubble? You’ve got so much credibility, but all the bloggers have been like voices crying in the wilderness.
Post 1 LA county unemployment rate at 9.9%
LA county was 1-2% ahead of CA UE rate all year. And that 9.9% is way understated. It counts only those who have filed for and are collecting UE benefits. Probably another 5% of the county population have exhausted benefits or have simply dropped out. Another 10% have had their hrs cut back to part-time status. There is also a huge population of UE/underemployed minority teens and young adults including second gen immigrant siblings who are unable to get work or are marginally employed part time in service or in temp make work gov’t job corps programs. There are also huge numbers of independent contractors(including illegal alien yard workers driving jalopy pickups) and commissioned agents who are not eligible for UE insurance and/or are not counted in the employed workforce stats, and who have seen their income disappear or reduced to almost zero.
U-6 UE rate here in LA County is at least 20% and more likely 25%. Both the city & county never had much high paying job sectors to begin with, just a few high tech defense jobs in the south bay, union port jobs and the hollywood industry. These sectors are also hurting from the bad economy and are cutting Labor costs.
La Times jobs classified has been just one or two pages since late sept. This is the largest jobs classified section in the US .
Normally it would run 10-15 pages in a normal economy.
It not just about housing and real estate declines anymore, it’s about economic survival.
“What is frustrating to me is that the ongoing debate is headed by the fools that got us in this situation. Housing isn’t going to lead us anywhere. The fact is we’ve had the largest financial mania in history. It’s not going to return, and we better start working on how we will work and live in the future. Nobody can turn the clock back, and hoping that housing will lead a recovery is just as futile wishing oil would rebound in the 80’s.”
Spot on, Ben! Too bad our posts fall on blind eyes and deaf ears…
“people that cheer for a serious recession haven’t lived through one” - Ben Jones, above.
Hmm. I thought BJ was of the mind that big shifts present big opportunities. Doesn’t deflation favor those of us with very big cash positions? Particularly if we have little or no “job” ? The recession seems to present an opportunity to stop feeling forced to speculate with risky “investments”.
What do you mean by “living through one” (?) — Probably we have no HBB posters who lived through the 30’s, which was the last time a dislocation of this magnitude occurred. But you point to the 80’s in Texas, and certainly the crunch of the mid-70’s was felt through most of the US. Whether one was personally hurt depends on where one’s livelihood was coming from.
Just asking.
These houses were never cash registers or ATM’s; they were just another form of plastic that you had to pay back. Why is this so difficult to understand?
It’s funny to me that the press will print something like that and not realize how ridiculous it is on it’s face. And yet ‘experts’ stand around saying, ‘wow, nobody saw this coming.’
Yeah, I can’t decide who is funnier, the MSM or the PSYOP boys at the Fourth Psychological Operations Group based at Fort Bragg, NC.
Maybe we’re all work for NAR and they just didn’t tell us
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article1664.htm
PresidentEisenhower, in his farewell address, warned of the vast “military-industrial complex” that Americans would have to reckon with. Many people remember Eisenhower primarily for that warning.
In the same speech, he also warned about the temptation to engage in deficit spending:
“Another factor in maintaining balance involves the element of time. As we peer into society’s future, we — you and I, and our government — must avoid the impulse to live only for today, plundering for our own ease and convenience the precious resources of tomorrow. We cannot mortgage the material assets of our grandchildren without risking the loss also of their political and spiritual heritage. We want democracy to survive for all generations to come, not to become the insolvent phantom of tomorrow.”
My point is that military/industrial complex, minus industrial, = military complex.
Who finances the military? Of course, the Treasury? Who funds the Treasury, of course the taxpayers? Who finances the the taxpayer’s deficits? China? Arabs?
Try the Federal Reserve - the same private, international banking cartel that created the ultra low interest rates that went hand in hand with the housing bubble, ultimately funds both sides of many military adventures. Beware of the international bankers. They are the true power base that stays in Washington, despite any election. Understand this and you begin to understand the nature of the real problems we face.
I hate to agree with you, but yeah, look at Timothy Geithner.
For once, I wish they had picked some ideological nominee. Being a centrist does not mean you have to go with the same dumbass who helped get us into this mess.
AFAIC–and I watched this guy last year in Senate hearings before the TARP was approved–Geithner is a lying sack of flaming moose doots and should have been sacked from whatever office he held on Day 1.
The military is a bloated bureaucracy just like the Fed, State, County and Muni…Sell the fear and then fund the solution (see Iraq)…If we are going to continue to run the military like we do today we need to run it more like a private enterprise (See Blackwater)…Just start charging for our protection…
Excellent comentary by Cobaltblue !!!
It turns out that we were all wrong! The homedebtors won’t have to pay it back. WE will.
“‘We’re below the national average [of $181,000], and we are in California, not Nebraska,’ said Patrick Conner, owner of one of Fresno’s largest residential real estate firms.”
Hey Pat, you may as well be in Nebraska you dingle berry.
“‘We’re below the national average [of $181,000], and we are in California, not Nebraska,’ said Patrick Conner, owner of one of Fresno’s largest residential real estate firms.”
Then click your heels 3 times and repeat after me…”There’s no place like home, there’s no place like home, there’s no place like home…” and TRY AGAIN for KANSAS Pat.
Sheesh…”Well…Sometimes the Magic works, sometimes it doesn’t”
From Wikepedia…..
Fresno - California’s anus.
as Newark is to NJ
I take it you’ve never been to Camden?
Camden doesn’t smell as bad as Newark.. Or Elizabeth..
I’d say Camden is New Jersey’s perineum..
Depends on the way the wind is blowing. The Budweiser plant stinks for miles on a bad day.
Camden is a fricking mess though. Its where they send the bad people from North Philly.
Camden is like Newark, but without the charm.
“Fresno - California’s anus”
Actually it is Sacramento, a collection of anus’s running Ca into the ground
I loved the ‘old’ TV show ‘Fresno’. Harvey Korman, RIP, was the best.
Central Valley - California’s armpit.
Yeah. Its just that happens to be where all the nice people that grow all the food live.
Its just agricultural areas. You city snobs.
Still like Nebraska, its farm country.
Plus it’s conservative… Godforbid!
James,
I’m just kidding.
Gal
Thanks for clarification.
Was about to fire a SF blast.
What about stockton? home of my old alama matter
I know a number of people that have been investing in Stockton recently…
“Hey Pat, you may as well be in Nebraska you dingle berry.”
Couldn’t have said it better myself. What kind of moron thinks that just because their zip code is in CA that their prices should compare with that of Newport Beach, La Jolla, or Tiburon?
And Nebraska ain’t California.
Thank God.
With the dire straits California is in, you’d think the populace there would get it through their thick heads that insulting those in flyover country - who once again will have to bail their Left Coast @sses out - isn’t particularly wise.
who once again will have to bail their Left Coast @sses out ??
Huh ?? hoz…Did you ever get time to redo the numbers after extracting Cali ?? Cali sends 140 bil per year to the feds…How much does Nebraska send ??
Nebraska alone, less than California. “Flyover country” combined, a whole lot more.
“Flyover country” combined, a whole lot more ??
Take away the federal farm subsidies and redo the math Colorado…
Take away the water subsidies, and redo the math, scdave.
Also, take away Orange County and Grey Davis’ power grid fiasco while you’re at it.
And take away the farm subsidies California gets as well.
What is with the snobs on here today?
I understand the stupid remark by the guy in the central valley, and I can understand not wanting to live near the giant cow farm near the 5.
However most of us city folks are living in the good graces of having lots of food from the “flyover” area people.
Sometimes you all make me think a bit of starvation would teach you a valuable lesson. Try facing an actual food shortage.
Complaints about the military, bankers and farmers. WTF?
snobs on here today ??
Go ahead MR. James….Present your argument for the 600 bill per year we spend on the military to defend the world…
I’m grumpy today.
1. bankers: they serve a huge function in capitalism. Distribution of capital. They have failed us but unfortunately banking is different. Not saying that the bailouts are the solution here either.
2. The military: we could argue all day about the right size for the military. While I have some libertarian leanings, its clear we aren’t in a world the founding fathers envisioned. Armies can materialize in hours. The amount of damage a small group armed with modern weapons can do is massive. So, a large standing military has become a necessity. Is it too big? I don’t think so. Half because its my job. The other half cause I think, like cops, we do a lot more good than harm.
Crackpot, wanna be dictators like Chavez have to think twice cause we are half a blink from frying his ass. Yeah, bad for Venezuelans but in the larger picture we keep him from spreading across south america. Same with dozens of other places.
I think by and large there are some fringe benefits to this that help defray the costs. Probably keeps over all production stable and makes prices lower for everyone. While we are not able to make things perfect, it is possible it offsets the cost by 50% or more.
Could also argue that it allows us to continue our addiction to oil. Maybe that is true. There is considerable downside risk for humanity in our contracting. Remember WW1, WW2 the sequel and the pure joys of the cold war? A lot of that built up from America not being at the forefront.
So, I do not have a compelling argument or data to support this position. My gut tells me its the right thing.
For god’s sake man we don’t need bankers to distribute capital! We don’t need bankers to determine who gets a loan and not (all other things being equal). e don’t need bankers to charge interest for making money out of nothing. Interest that every State, County, and FED has to pay back with our money. WE don’t need bankers and hot (fiat) money corrupting our politians.
This system is the biggest pnzi sheme ever and is rigged to boom and bust. Guess what part of the cycle is coming next?
Are you prepared?
Nebraska provides actual food, which has value.
California provides bad movies, bad debt and bad porn.
Except for the agricultural areas. Who you wrote off.
Frankly, I could understand their eventual stand that we have to go.
We have numbers on them, but so many liberals lack guts, fortitude and most of you are in the learned helplessness section of receiving government aid.
Also we decided to park all of our nukes there.
James -
Left and Right coast elitism is commonplace. They’re better than everyone else, remember?
It comes across in the notion that everyone else should have to pay the tab for their hedonistic, arrogant, irresponsible, lifestyles.
The idea that any in Nebraska should have to throw ANY money to the Feds to pay for the average dolt in California or New York is beyond the pale.
Like I said elsewhere, it’s time for Californians, Portlanders, Seattleans, New Yorkers, Miamians and any other smug S.O.B.’s to pick themselves up by their own bootstraps, work their tails off, do without.
You created the mess. You clean it up.
Stop asking everyone else to cover your collective coastal @sses. Your hands have been out for 2-3 decades now.
Sheez James and Eudemon, you both sound like a bunch of grumps today. Find your humor. Oh wait your too busy accusing everyone that doesn’t live in your part of the country of being lazy, snobs, elitist etc..
If you can’t take it, don’t dish it out.
Baygal. I’m in LA.
Its just you sweetheart. A special kind of snob.
yeah. i’m grumpy today.
Oh Eudemon,
I can take more than you ever could.
Hmm,
Has anyone noticed, In Nebraska they still speak English.
“‘It was frustrating,’ Brittany Jenkins said. ‘We hadn’t even realized the market had gotten that bad.’”
Brittany, Brittany, Brittany, it really pays to pay attention to what’s going on around you, didn’t anyone ever tell you that.
My sister works as a medical technician for an Orange Country hospital. I figured health care would be a relatively recession-proof sector, but I figured wrong. They are as busy as ever, but an increasing fraction of their patients are uninsured and can’t pay for the care they receive. The hospital is actually removing beds from hospital rooms so that they have an excuse to turn away uninsured patients, and refusing to take uninsured patients who live closer to another hospital.
At the end of the day, health care is facing layoffs, reductions, etc… just like every other sector of the economy.
They need to turn that hospital into a bank and get them some of that free TARP money.
tarp is really “barf” - bad asset recovery fantasy
The hbb poster who coined this acronym the other day, should get a big applause.
How about Community Relief Asset Program?
I like that one too. Acronyms are a great car game with kids. Don’t own the wonderful germy things, but I borrow other people’s.
Kids, or cars?? (Had to ask)
lol
Until recently health care has been one of my favorite investment themes. Not anymore. Even though the population is aging that doesn’t mean their extensive health care needs will be met.
It’s all about money availability and money flow. If money isn’t made available then there won’t be money flowing.
I thought Obama was going to fix health care.
Wouldn’t there be an investment theme there if he does, or at least tries?
Maybe, but if price restrictions are implemented profit margins will narrow for those companies now enjoying hefty margins. “Fixing health care” may end up as “limiting health care”.
But, who knows? at this point. Best to stand aside for now, IMO.
Yup, hard to know what a good investment will be when the fedgov is in there constantly monkeying with the rules..
I too, thought health care would be recession proof. My sister, also a medical records technician since the early 1980s, is still looking for work after being unemployed since October. However she is limiting herself to the California coastal cities.
The boomer generation, much critiqued for being so self-absorbed and never wanting to get old or sick, are avoiding spending on their own health needs. For now, perhaps.
Wonder how plastic surgery is faring these days. a lot of frowning people, i would imagine.
plastic surgery is faring these days
If the people walking around the Wynn & Encore in LV are any indication it is doing quite well…
Why should heath care be recession proof? It’s a ponzi scheme just like housing.
Yep…
They don’t have any money for healthcare, Bill.
They’ve blown it all.
I don’t know if this was discussed before, but California will be paying doctors who see Medi-Cal patients with IOU’s. Many doctors who were already fed up with the low payments will probably begin to turn those patients away or ask them to pay up front (a losing proposition since having Medi-Cal means you have no money).
I know of one health insurance geared to the poor in LA that sent letters to the doctors stating they would not cover specialist consultations any more. Think what that can mean. A patient with an infectious disease unable to see an infectologist.
In time, this trend will morph into sicker patients turning up at hospitals when they are further gone on their illness than they should be, therefore more expensive for the hospital to treat. If hospitals begin to find ways of turning them away, which they will, we will have a serious health crisis on top everything. The health care system is completely broken. Obama knows this, but I don’t think it can be fixed, it has to be razed down and rebuilt. And by the way, bad things are happening in the health care front in places like England, France, even Switzerland. This is not a matter of private vs. socialized, it’s bigger than that.
“And by the way, bad things are happening in the health care front in places like England, France, even Switzerland. This is not a matter of private vs. socialized, it’s bigger than that.”
Can you expand on that? What’s going wrong in the socialized systems other than the usual problems?
“What’s going wrong in the socialized systems other than the usual problems?”
The modern countries are awash in older folks; too few young to support ‘em.
If we had secure borders, such health threats would be minimized.
“At the end of the day, health care is facing layoffs, reductions, etc… just like every other sector of the economy”.
Yes indeed, happening right here in our little spot on the planet also, and it has come as quite a surprise to a few people. These damn surprises just keep on popping up.
I could attest to what is going wrong ,and I’m one of the people that actually had extra health insurance . But ,I don’t want to talk about it . Suffice to say that the system sucks ,even if your insured .
increasing fraction of their patients are uninsured and can’t pay for the care they receive ??
No-Problemo…Just come to Santa County Hospital in San Jose California…One of the finest facilities that money can buy… Unfortunately, its taxpayer money…
The Housing Wizard said
“Suffice to say that the system sucks ,even if your insured.”
Could not agree more. Our healthcare system has been broken a long time.
scdave said
“One of the finest facilities that money can buy… Unfortunately, its taxpayer money…”
Kaiser Permanente (the mega HMO) got $200M (grant) from FEMA, towards the new Panorama City (by Van Nuys, Ca.-LA County) for their new fancy, schmancy hospital. Kaiser has non-profit status, and is worth billions. Go figure.
Medical problems and associated costs account for 75% of all US bankruptcies.
75%.
“There are a lot of people given the double challenge of not only being unemployed, but being unemployed in a profession they can’t go back to … like the mortgage industry.’”
Well, I could tell you what the solution to this deep mystery is, having found the answer a few times in my bumpy career. But then I am stopped cold trying to process the idea that a mortgage processor from this era is a “Professional”.
For sure. I still cringe at the idea of working with the “Pro’s from NAR” because I’m a little frightened of STD
I would like to nominate the phrase “the mortgage industry” as the Oxymoron of the Decade.
“Crisp said, ‘but I can’t do that when the newspaper keeps blasting me.’”
David Crisp is crying about bad press when he should be down on his knees thanking whoever that he is not in jail on his knees servicing Bubba.
Leave Bubba out of this….
Sounds like the Governor of Illinois!!
Actually, Robin, it sounds much more like Chicago’s own Mayor Daley. It is HE that would say something like that, not Blago.
After every newly publicized Mayoral scam, Daley whines about the media.
Does the Daley family’s power date back to the ’70s?
Most people in the video game business pretty much thought it was recession-proof - entertainment tends to do well in financially stressful times - but we’ve found out that even though the business will probably do well, many companies are simply not strong enough to weather it.
There have been numerous layoffs from the biggest publishers down to the smallest subcontractors. The problem isn’t necessarily that games aren’t selling, because they’re doing fine.
The biggest companies are laying off because their stock price is tanking, reduced market cap means they have to trim costs sharply. Sony is about to lay off thousands and probably restructure at least the games division and probably the entire company.
For the smaller companies, the little developer houses, the problem is largely the credit crisis - nobody can borrow operating cash. Banks aren’t going to lend out money for projects that are risky, which most game projects are. Also, even if your company has a game in-house under production, if your publisher is having trouble raising cash, you might not get paid promptly as you expect (and as your contract requires). This is truly lethal for a small developer house, because many of them are operating month-to-month with little to no “safety” money in the bank.
Put all that together and it means thousands out of work and hiring at a standstill.
I’ve been out of work since I got laid off in October. There are no jobs for my particular specialty in the game biz being advertised at the moment. The few that have been would require me moving thousands of miles, which my situation currently doesn’t permit.
My skills translate over to Hollywood TV and film projects, but right now that’s dead too, as both the economy and the pending SAG strike are hanging over the studios.
I’m applying for extended unemployment benefits, because I’m pretty sure it’s going to be very hard for me to find work. I’m fortunate that UI actually covers my expenses, even though it’s less than half what I was making, and I have cash in the bank, but once UI runs out it could be really ugly for me.
It’s not good, and it’s getting worse. 9.9% unemployment in LA County, I think is a substantial underestimate, with all the self-employed film industry types.
You probably already know this, but the Hollywood TV and Film jobs pretty much require apprenticeships. Since you are on unemployment, this would be a perfect time to volunteer to do unpaid apprentice work and build some relationships. Even if it’s fetching coffee, paying a few dues while you can couldn’t hurt, if it’s that sort of job that you want.
Good advice in normal times but Viacom, WB, Disney, and a whole list of entertainment firms and related are shedding jobs. My bro and sil are in the biz, and say a tsunami could unfold. 2800 layoffs announed already at the biggies, and its just starting.
Sorry to hear that LA Wallflower,
Some of us give the Housing Boom cities and states more than a little Hell for being so reckless but we do hate to see someone caught in all this, that wants to work and suceed getting hurt.
Keep the Faith in yourself, hang in there and we’ve got our fingers crossed for you
LA Wallflower-
I am also sad to hear of your unemployment h*ll. Keep your health up, network, and know you’re not alone. EE’s are seeing a road block too. It sucks for smart people out there.
Hang in there, Wallflower, it’s going to be tough for all of us, even if we did not spend like drunken sailors and leveraged ourselves to the hilt. Something creative is going to come out of this, new forms of entertainment adapted to the leaner times. Keep your eyes peeled.
agreed. like direct to video/web productions by small groups. It’s not just Dr. Horrible–check out Batman–Dead End, a demo project which hints at what might be possible in this field. Film Hoshi no Koe was pretty much done by one guy!
It’s ironic to me that the fcc pushed out this TV signal upgrade at a time when many have dropped all tv and only watch what we can get on Netflix and Hulu.
Hulu has limited ads, just what the advertisers have begged for for YEARS. I hope they keep it that way. Don’t go the road of crapulence like A&E and SciFi. SciFi used to be my reason to get basic cable, but they lost me at 20 minutes ads per rerun house. (Also for cancelling Farscape, wankers!)
I recently watched a BBC/A&E David Suchet Poirot special on DVD. UNWATCHABLE. The constant recapping for commercial interruption completely ruined the feature. (Which had great acting–even Alexander Siddig.) Only BBC/PBS from the good old days for me. Might even buy some of those (though right now I’m in a “I can just borrow–why purchase?” mode). The wife might like some as a present. WOULD NEVER BUY THE A&E DVDS.
not a gator,
Check with your public library. They may be able to get your dvds.
I’m using Netflix, so not a problem. I’m just expressing the thought that, as a consumer, the PBS versions are still a desirable product years later (they keep making money w/out needing to add new value) while the A&E versions I can barely watch even at zero marginal cost to myself and would certainly never buy.
Short-term bang (the first prodcast ads) but no long-term value.
Also funny how media corps can’t understand how they lost audience, even as they hollowed out “money-losing” tv journalism. Turner built an empire on CNN; the MBA drones destroyed it. When it’s all about s-t marginal profits you can kiss long-term goodbye. Arrivaderci, suckers.
Agree with your A&E assessment (I used to watch the PBS mysteries with my little gran). You can find a lot of PBS/BBC material at the library, though.
However, there’s been a real golden age in American television the last decade. The Wire & Deadwood rival any BBC products put out in the last ten years (and there has been some great British television out, like Ashes to Ashes and Clatterford). I’ve lived in England and like to remind people that the good stuff gets exported and the bad stuff usually doesn’t cross the channel (except Ben Elton, blech).
I get BBC America and have caught some great shows.
yeah, HBO’s been the real sleeper for good TV. who’da thunk it?
The cheapo version of “Victory At Sea” is actually much better quality than the A&E version. And it’s a fraction of the cost. I recommend the “Milcreek Entertainment” version which you can pick up for about $10 a set anywhere.
I’d also recommend _Primer_… The guy did it for about $7k (plus blood sweat and tears of course
and it’s done significantly better than that.. It’s also the sort of movie that would never have survived a flood of studio notes…
Who knows, a good story, a good set of friends, a couple of 1080p cameras, might make for interesting viewing…
“I’ve been out of work since I got laid off in October.”
I too have been out of work since mid 2008. Profession: I/C contract delivery driver. Received fed jobs training this past summer in construction/environ safety so i will go hat in hand and apply in one of Obama’s stimulous insfrastructure/WPA jobs programs .
On a serious note. i have been out of work for a while but have backup resources and have not asked for any Gov ‘ t bennys except for a small UE insurance payout which i quickly exhausted. Have a background in small business ownership/entrepreneurial background so i might go that direction. i know capital is hard to get nowadays and credit squeeze is killing lots of small business owners but one can always start a small business from the ground up with limited capital funding.
This will be a time for creative thinking on how to survive and beat this depression. Not just pounding the pavement apply for job after non-existent job but launching a new different career or business, perhaps using the internet as Ben has done. Perhaps getting in on the green jobs ponzi scam-i mean green jobs stimulous programs.
THis sounds crazy and completely off the wall but i may launch a small business based on a Hobby-recreational Kayaking. Lots of folks have done this. I have my hobby on facebook- lots of yak pics and posts.
http://www.facebook.com/people/Carmine-Pete/1146488207
Hollywood pseudo insider alert:
My sources tell me the threatened Hollywood strike is officially dead because they have no leverage whatsoever in a drowning economy even though the present modum operendi is grossly unfair. Against popular urban legend, Hollywood is not immune to downturns. Hence, only the most predictable moneymakers (i.e. Shrek 5) are going through.
actually, it’s modus operandi, although the phrase “modem operand” does amuse me…
I don’t know if you’re more in the creative or coding side, but this is typically the time when self-promotion really gears up. Do that open-source project you always dreamed of or draw that comic book. Pick up fans and industry contacts. Even if the money is marginal it’s better than zilch and you are beefing up your rep.
And when the economy starts to recover you’ll start getting some ad revenue on your website. Web ad revenue is completely cyclical and it will come back. (Print advertising, however, is in a secular decline.)
Hey thanks for the nice supportive words everyone. Most appreciated.
Yeah I’ll be okay one way or the other. Unlike most people I have a very positive net worth and money in the bank. Also a supportive spouse with what appears to be a solid job (tho who knows these days), so we’re not starving or anything. Even after UEI runs out I have a good 3-4 months liquid cash plus some valuable items I can sell, and if all else fails I was smart with my 401K and got out of the stock market last December when it was at 13,800. I could conceivably go as long as 3 years without work, but I’m crafty and I’ll find paying stuff.
I am in fact working on my own creative projects since I’ve got the time, I’m looking at being on unemployment as an opportunity to do all sorts of things I haven’t had the chance to do for a while.
It’ll be all good, my attitude is positive, it’s just not going to be easy.
Thanks again, all!
“The economy got you gripped in its clutches? Feeling stressed out by the endless news of layoffs, buyouts and bankruptcies? A San Francisco creative agency has just the fix: Squeeze-the-Banker dolls.”
Do they come with sharp pins that you can stick into them?
Maybe bury them upside down along with statue of St Joseph?
If you stuff enough cash down their throat, they shoot rainbows out ther @$$. Trust me!
They would need a trapdoor, tiny noose and rope for them to interest me
How about little tiny guillotines?
Practice up for the revolution
How about little tiny guillotines
Okay!!!…you sold me with that one sm_landlord
Wow..do I ever have a dark side
You can only cut of their head once (or twice), but you can hang them forever.
IAT
of=off
IAT
Yes, but if you chop off the tiny bankers head enough times, sooner or later we might figure out how to SCREW the damned thing back on…RIGHT
That’s what chainsaws are for. Use chainsaws for the bad buys. They should be gut-raped with swirling chainsaws so that their guts are churned and spun onto the walls, and then kicked into the gutter so that the dogs, buzzards, and maggots can feast on their rotten bloated corpses.
I can’t believe there’s been no comments on this yet….
“The units are small — 230-300 square feet with kitchenettes and ‘very large bathrooms.’ In addition to a few units earmarked as low-income units, rents were as much as $1,200 and were reduced to $895-$1,095 per month; parking is $100 more.”
300 square feet?? 895-1095 a month plus another 100 for parking?? Of all the insane numbers I’ve seen on both coasts, I think this takes the cake.
If you assume 120X rent equals sales price, you’re looking at a supposed per square foot price of (1000 X 120)/275 = $430 per square foot. And you get to live next to low income renters.
I couldn’t believe that either. And the part about “very large bathrooms” … if I had to live in an apartment that small, I’d want the bathroom to be as small as possible so as not to take up valuable square feet.
I live in Santa Cruz. Those apartments are right on the edge of “beach flats”, which happens to be gang banger central. I lived in that area when I first moved to Santa Cruz, and ultimately left as I was tired of being stared down by angry looking mexican dudes.
I’m an advocate of small housing, but 300 square feet is a hotel room, basically. It’s almost doable if you are an extreme minimalist and “outsource your life.” There are a few who do this. They only borrow books from the library, send out their laundry once a week, and get ALL their meals from deli’s and restaurants. This is only possible in Manhattan or possibly downtown Chicago. But, can’t-live-without-a car Cali? No way.
Off topic OP, but definitely worth a look/read:
A 1993 picture of Madoff, ‘monster payoff compensation’ Grasso, and SEC wheeler dealer Ruder shown with the fascinating article here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/25/business/25bernie.html
This all so epitomizes the way of doing business at the top in Washington and Wall Street. Many of the appointed board members of America’s corporate world who approve the big payouts, compensation, and acquisitions gone bad - read like a who’s who of American politics and big business. As long as shareholder apathy continues, we can expect corporate America to ignore main street
Do you exercise your shareholder vote? Either way you only have two choices: vote to reelect corporate board, or not. Whoopee. The large institutional funds hold the real vote, and they’re vacationing with the company heads on those annual junkets to the Riviera.
more proof that the mutual fund industry (especially 401k’s, where the “investor” has no control) is the biggest ripoff ever foisted on the American middle class
Did you know that many board of directors hold multiple directorships in many other companies?
In other words, the same guys run several companies.
And this is the rule, not the exception.
Do you exercise your shareholder vote? Either way you only have two choices: vote to reelect corporate board, or not. Whoopee.
US shareholder law skewed heavily toward management on these issues is a big part of why corporate executives continue to haul away ripoff pay packages.
“Free market”, my ass.
HBBers, for some laughs, pick up a new book called Middle Class Millionaires. Not only does it without seeming awareness of the fact duplicate the 20 year old research of The Millionaire Next Door, only not as well, but it repeatedly makes the mistake of taking short-term trends for permanent.
(To be fair, they researched values of million NW households against a control group of non-millionaire middle income households with an eye towards resultant investment and purchasing habits, so there is some new info, just not a lot of it, and it’s drowned in gee whiz “trends” nonsense.)
In the discussion of tear-downs they describe without irony the demographic disaster which hit prestigious school system towns in the mid 1980’s (dropping enrollment, prohibitive home prices, and the tax revolt) and then the reversal in the 1990’s where, as they put it, middle class families were willing to undergo the sacrifice of shouldering the burden of a large mortgage so their children could attend desireable public schools. They also talk about prices being ‘bid up’ once again.
Not once do they acknowledge the loosening of mortgage terms … or notice that the family they profile in detail is in the construction biz. Never do they speak of controlling results for age of head of household.
One thing I have taken from this book is that this country is going to have to deal with the fact that its citizens are extraordinarily mobile and apt to game the tax system.
Anyway, like I said, pick this book up at your local library for the lulz. They used home “value” to calculate net worth, so, instead of identifying the same group as Stanley, who looked at NW vs. income to identify PAWs, these guys identified a lot of ‘paper millionaires’ who are/were experiencing the housing wealth effect.
Another lulz is the way they throw around the undefined term “millionaire intelligence.” I have no idea what they mean by this, but after a couple of chapters it’s starting to resemble the word “savvy” in newspaper articles. Spend your way to the top.
While they do identify some interesting info (self-made millionaires, who come from the middle class, vs. those still in middle class, paid close attention to the economic productivity of the work they do and rejected the notion “do what you love and the money will follow”, agreeing at a rate of 2% to I believe 54%), the authors are deep into the NAR koolaid, arguing that the teardown epidemic is really good and here to stay, blithely dismissing the downside; dwell overlong on the affluents’ role as early adopters (who cares? this has been studied better elsewhere); and in the end, despite the “recent slowdown” in the RE market, wax eloquent about a world of highly distorted housing prices, as if this fake ‘wealth’ were real, in the vein of that execrable “bohemian bourgeoisie” book of a few years back (Bobos in paradise or whatever the hell it was called).
The units are small — 230-300 square feet with kitchenettes and ‘very large bathrooms.’ In addition to a few units earmarked as low-income units, rents were as much as $1,200 and were reduced to $895-$1,095 per month; parking is $100 more.”
“‘I cringe every time I have to say those words,’ Sargent said.”
Cringing because you only rented 14 out of 44 and have to admit you messed up, or cringing because of that stream of involuntary expletives that inevitably erupt from your potential salesmark’s mouth when they hear that your 200 sqft studios rent for $895/mo + $100/mo parking?
I live in 580sqft. I think I could get by in 400sqft. 200sqft is a one roomer, there is no way it has a “large bathroom” (perhaps by Toukyou standards), and good luck cooking anything in that kitchenette. I have enough trouble with mine.
The cabin of my little cabin cruiser is 200 ft2. The living room is the bedroom is the kitchen. The spacious “bathroom” is 3ft x 4ft, including counter space and sink. I have the deck up top, open water and the big Blue Skye overhead. Imagine if it were just that space stacked in among others like cordwood.
IMHO, Lenders should be getting 20 percent down or have insurance on loans now because you can’t determine who is going to be laid off . The fact that they want to beef up lending in a job contraction economy is
foolish . Some jobs are recession proof, but most aren’t .
Stable jobs stimulate the economy ,just as real estate prices always need to be stable and related to stable jobs in a area .
Good point, and on this issue I trust the banks to catch on far in advance then the “elected” demagouges in congress.
“then”
then–> thanThe December Dataquick numbers for California counties and cities are out. It’s yet another slaughter.
http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/CA-City-Charts/ZIPCAR.aspx
San Diego: -31%
Santa Clara: -35%
Sacramento: -37%
Riverside: -41%
Orange: -30%
Monterey: -49%
Marin: -28%
Los Angeles: -33%
Contra Costa: -50%
burn, monterey, burn
I wonder if OC will go BK again?
Berkely is up 20% in 12 months!
The bubble lives and prospers still!
“Berkely is up 20% in 12 months!”
Who is providing the financing?
The reporter’s playing fast and loose with language here:
Offers were $45,000 lower than what the Jenkins paid for the house in September 2006, and less than what they owed on their mortgage.”
“‘We wouldn’t even have been able to buy a house with that [price],’ Brittany Jenkins said.”
What the reporter meant to say was “Offers were $45,000 lower than what the Jenkins BORROWED for the house. A big diggerence!
And, in the next sentence, Brittany seems to think that she should be able to purchase a new home with the appreciation earned from holding a house for 2 and a half years!
Lots of Monterey did burn, literally, last summer, I’m still waiting for Big Sur camping to reopen.
Monterey county’s numbers are heavily influenced by Salinas - which btw is practically on lockdown status due to a gang war, my sister had a coworker who served on a jury and they had to beef up security afterwards due to fears of gang retaliation.
The ‘desirable’ coastal areas like Monterey (city) -14% and Pacific Grove -14.65% have a ways to go IMO. Carmel -40% is an interesting no., but w/ so few sales, hard to know if there’s a trend.
I took a look @ the Monterey Herald’s historical single family sales no.s on line for Monterey(city,) if you can trust the numbers there was a more than 100% runup between the early 2000s and 2005. If you had bought in ‘02 you would have more than doubled your money by ‘05. It was a bit like a shark feeding frenzy, not to denigrate sharks which are far more likable than realtwhores,
‘99 -241,000
‘00 -349,000 or 489,000 -2 charts, supposedly same source - huh?
‘01 - 476,100 or 612,000 - huh?
‘02 - 410,000
‘03 - 625,000 + 52%
‘04 - 700,000 + 10%
‘05 - 875,000 + 25%
‘06 - 835,000
‘07 - 795,000
‘08 - 505,000
W/ specuvesting gone - tourism, fishing, marine bio research, some remnant military and inland/N.co ag are left.
wow, monterey no longer cannery row…
what about Carmel. didn’t hear about it on the bubble blogs much. In the early 80’s Carmel was richy-richtown. How is it now?
Hm, Salinas, that’s kind of sad. It’s been hispanic forever but it wasn’t infamous in that way. I heard it got expensive during the housing boom, but so did Compton.
Carmel and Carmel Valley is still infested with the rich, mainly either retirees or weekenders from SF or LA. There’s some national market exposure, sort of like Aspen, but with golf instead of skiing. You can fire a rifle down the street on a weekday winter afternoon and not hit anyone.
The prices are completely insane.
Carmel and Pebble Beach are hard to figure from these numbers. The number of sales is small, and there’s a huge range of house prices–you can get some $20 million sales and some $500K condos. But I think it’s safe to say the markets are weak. Pacific Grove is still massively overpriced. There are quite a few defaults and foreclosures rippling through Seaside Highlands; I think they’re back to about early 2004 prices and are rapidly headed underwater from there. They were built around 2004/2005 so only the earliest buyers still have their heads above water.
Salinas is in the midst of a gang war. If you buy there be sure to factor in the cost of body armor for yourself and your family. I think the median price there will drop under $200K in the next several months.
“‘It was frustrating,’ Brittany Jenkins said. ‘We hadn’t even realized the market had gotten that bad.’”
Welcome to the real world, Britany, and not a minute too soon. Millions of oblivious zombies who trusted the MSM, conventional “wisdom” and their realtors’ “research” are getting a long-overdue rude awakening about what happened while they slept.
“‘It was frustrating,’ Brittany Jenkins said. ‘We hadn’t even realized the market had gotten that bad.’”
“But Suzanne researched this,” she continued.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ubsd-tWYmZw
‘I sit down with [these homeowners], and they’re in shock that they’re going to end up selling their houses for so much less [than their asking price],’ said Rani Calderon, the broker-owner of Elite Properties in Visalia.”
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAA!
There are few things as schadenfreude-inducing as watching all the genius Kool-Aid imbibers of 2004-2007, who looked down their noses at us renters, getting their come-uppance. The fact that this comes as a shock indicates how willfully detached from reality most of these folks have been.
Elite Properties in Visalia
Oxymoron of the week
What no one saw was the perfect storm coming. People didn’t connect the dots in the U.S. and world economies, and with these big financial institutions going down in a matter of weeks. It wasn’t even in the worst-case scenarios.
I want to retch every time some “expert” falls back on that lame, lying mantra - “no one saw it coming” - to try to explain away their own cluelessness and incompetence. Ordinary people of all walks in here were making uncannily accurate predictions as early as 2004, and a good many of us sensed what was coming long before that. It’s just that too many fools in high places, and their MSM cohorts, had a vested interest in continuing to perpetuate the illusion that was the Ponzi-scheme economy.
In addition to a few units earmarked as low-income units, rents were as much as $1,200 and were reduced to $895-$1,095 per month; parking is $100 more.”
“Affordable housing” has to be one of the most blatant frauds foisted on taxpayers and neighborhoods. Who gave guv’mint the right to force builders and neighbors to set aside properties in their midst for “low income” people, who more often than not are poor because they’re also riff-raff?
“Affordable housing” is indeed a fraud. Have you priced one? Affordable it ain’t. Usually in neighborhood that has “future ghetto” written all over it.
What you really get is a much smaller, poorly built house combined with undesirable locations at prevailing market rates. “Voila’! It ees now affordable, yes?”
Politicians and the Real Estate Industrial Complex (REIC) are desperately trying to reinflate the credit bubble and keep house prices at bubble levels.
It will be a matter of time before we learn what impact their brand of “centrally planned capitalism” will have on home prices.
“No matter how ridiculous or expensive the proposal, if it might help housing a little bit, we’ll implement it.” That seems to be the mentality of the Federal government and the REIC.
Well, at least we know what the “free market” impact has been, don’t we?
Santa Paula has the land and the political will to bring an alternative energy company to town, but the firm is balking over the quality of the working-class city’s public schools, officials said.
Employees being recruited by Continental Wind Power are concerned about the test scores in the schools their children would attend if the firm opens a wind-turbine manufacturing plant in Santa Paula next year, City Manager Wally Bobkiewicz said.
With the town on a short list for the plant, the City Council joined with school boards Monday to begin writing a document that will show the city’s commitment to quality schools and plans for the future.
“I want Santa Paula to have the best schools in the county,” Mayor Ralph Fernandez said.
Bobkiewicz said the Santa Barbara-based startup could bring in 100 jobs and perhaps another 200 with the addition of parts suppliers who would also locate in Santa Paula.
Bobkiewicz said that even if the company puts the plant in one of two other cities it is considering, the city will face the education issue with other manufacturing companies.
“It’s something we have to address,” Bobkiewicz said.
Company officials declined comment, but economic experts say school quality is a key factor for industries looking to expand or move.
Although the school’s score of 682 falls beneath the state goal of 800, it has risen by almost 100 points since 2003, officials said.
That puts the school above three campuses with similar student bodies in Oxnard, but below high schools in the affluent cities of Camarillo, Thousand Oaks and Simi Valley.
Two-thirds of the school’s enrollment of 1,600 is economically disadvantaged, Principal Paul Marietti said.
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Santa Barbara schools are not much better than Santa Paula schools
which is funny because SB is much wealthier. Thousand Oaks and Simi have much better school scores as they were large middle class cities verus Santa Paula mostly farming or Santa Barbara mostly wealthly.