The Biggest Bubble To Burst In Our History
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Every morning Joyce Reedstrom, 82, struggles to the stair lift that carries her from her second-floor bedroom downstairs for the day. At night, helped by her husband, Kermit, 86, she reverses the trip. Last summer, it looked like the couple had a solution: move from their New Brighton, Minn., townhouse to a one-story apartment for seniors. Then reality hit: A 20-percent drop in what they could get for their townhouse of 27 years has left them feeling houselocked.”
“Instead of eating a $45,000 loss on their townhouse, the Reedstroms chose to stay and pay $7,000 for the stair lift a month ago. They may try again next summer to sell, or they might invest another $7,000 in a second lift gliding to the basement garage - then wait until their declining health forces them to move to an assisted-living facility. ‘It’s not working out the way we wanted,’ said Kermit Reedstrom.”
“When John Stanley and his family moved here from Virginia last year, they bought a lot in a new Concord master-planned community. The Stanleys now live among a sea of red clay and empty streets. Only seven of 1,200 homes planned in The Mills at Rocky River were completed before the project collapsed.”
“The half-built amenity center is a daily reminder of how things went so wrong. ‘It looked like it was going to be such a beautiful thing,’ Stanley says. ‘But it has been such a disappointment.’”
“Reinaldo and Edith Gonzalez got their first taste of the Canyon Ranch Living brand while vacationing aboard the Queen Mary II. They made a $236,000 deposit and signed a contract for a $1.18 million unit. But as the project neared completion, the couple began receiving letters from the developer and soon realized they hadn’t bought a condo at a Canyon Ranch resort. Instead, they had bought a unit at the Carillon North Beach tower, which had an agreement with Canyon Ranch to provide spa services.”
“‘These [purchase] contracts are so grossly overly one-sided,’ said Robert Cooper, the Aventura attorney representing the Trump Tower buyers. ‘Contracts said that whatever the developer promised doesn’t matter and you can’t rely on it and he can do whatever he wants. Buyers thought they were going to make giant profits and everybody was so excited that they basically ignored what they were signing.’”
“The median sales price for homes in Maine fell by roughly 7 percent last year, from $194,000 in 2007 to $180,000. At the 2008 conference, Anne Weigel of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Portland, predicted prices would bottom out by last summer. That hasn’t happened. Weigel was on target in 2008, though, when she warned sellers to be realistic about pricing their homes in a buyer’s market. Referring to last year’s 7 percent statewide price decline, though, Weigel alluded to the drop in average stock values to offer some perspective for real estate developers.
“‘The good news is it’s less than the drop in the Dow,’ she said.”
“The entire state of South Carolina, like the nation, suffered greatly in the housing market in 2008. The credit crunch…was meddlesome for many potential home buyers, agents said. ‘Anybody that had a pulse before could get a loan. Now you actually have to have good credit,’ said Kellar Lawrence, of ReMax.”
“A large pool of homes on the market and low interest rates make this a great time to buy a house, agents said. ‘This is a freaking great time to buy a house,’ Lawrence said.”
“Driven mostly by the Salinas foreclosure market, home prices in Monterey County took a dramatic plunge last month, with the median sale price down 48.89 percent from the previous year. Carmel was down 40.21 percent. In Marina, the median price dropped by 32.38 percent year to year; in Soledad, prices were down 44.76.”
“‘Despite the economy, there is optimism out there,’ said Monterey County Association of Realtors CEO Sandy Haney. ‘If you don’t buy at this price, when are you going to buy?’”
“Was 2008 a good year for real estate? What a loaded question you might ask! However, I am talking about Louisiana and in particular, our Acadiana region. Remember the flurry of sales and rentals immediately after Hurricane Katrina in August of 2005 and then again in September, one month later? It was a crazy time in real estate and if you were a seller, there were people sometimes begging to buy your house. It was both a good time and bad time but primarily it was unrealistic to think it could continue at that pace.”
“Back to my original question and the answer is yes, it was a good year for those of us lucky enough to live in Acadiana. Prices are still good and interest rates are low. Now may be the time to consider investing in real estate. Ask you local Realtor…Of course, it all depends which viewpoint you choose. If you live in or have investments in California, Nevada, Michigan, Florida or some other states, you might think I was making a poor joke.”
“New home sales plummeted by nearly 15 percent last month as builders struggled to unload a glut of homes on the market, according to new government data. That month-over-month drop caps one of the worst years on record. ‘Resales prices are so low in a lot of markets, it is below the cost of what it costs the builder to build it,’ said Kenneth Wenhold, director of the Mid-Atlantic region for Metrostudy.”
‘Prices in the new home market can’t come down much more, said David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. About 60 percent of builders surveyed by his association have said that they are no longer making a profit from home sales. ‘You’re paying people to take your house at that point,’ he said.”
“As many as 40 of the biggest 100 companies may collapse by 2011 as their debt- strapped assets default, according to a 2008 report which didn’t identify the firms in its study. ‘These guys had a sense they could do no wrong,’ says Paul Schaye, managing partner of New York-based Chestnut Hill Partners, which helps firms find deals. ‘They were the new masters of the universe. Now they’re going through a very sobering experience. They have to figure out how to survive this environment.’”
“‘The big fear for private equity is that the default rates go to an extraordinary level,’ says Roy Smith, a former Goldman, Sachs & Co. partner who now teaches at New York University. ‘The worst outcome is that we have such a high level of default that it makes the whole buyout scene a wasteland. This is part of the biggest bubble to burst in our history.’”
“There was no escaping the harsh realities of the nation’s deepest recession since the 1980s at the annual economic outlook presented Thursday by the Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce. Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich came down on Wall Street for using ‘easy money’ to invest in fancy derivatives, creating a speculative bubble and leverage that was beyond control.”
“‘Wall Street was like a big Ponzi scheme. It was Bernie Madoff tripled,’ he said. ‘They handed out bonuses over $18 billion for bank executives in 2008. Does that strike you as realistic?’”
“There are more than 8,000 hedge funds, all run by professed geniuses who claim they can charge exorbitant management fees and still beat the market. There are thousands more private investment managers and advisors making the same bold claims, despite history’s repeated lessons that they rarely hold true. What if just 1 percent of these people are Ponzi-scheming thieves? What if the percentage is higher? What if it’s 3 percent or 5 percent?”
“As the recession rages on, the ghost of 1920s swindler Charlie Ponzi is everywhere. We are, after all, a Ponzi nation, relying on new investors to pay off the old, building up fortunes on paper, pretending the market can only go up…It’s not just a few whack-job conspiracy theorists who say this, but real market participants, including renowned money manager Bill Gross of Pimco.”
“‘The U.S. and many of its G-7 counterparts over the past 25 years have become more and more dependent on asset appreciation,’ he wrote in his monthly investment outlook for January. ‘We became a nation that specialized in the making of paper instead of things. … We have met Mr. Ponzi and he is us — all of us.’”
“An audience of more than 300 concerned business people crammed into the Ritz-Carlton, Grand Cayman, ballroom for an in-depth, all-day financial seminar. Todd Buchholz, former Director of Economic Progress at the White House, a managing director of the $15 billion Tiger hedge fund, and an award-winning economics teacher at Harvard…stressed that much of the problem was self-inflicted.”
“‘Millions of people in America were saying ‘Even though I’ve never saved any money in my life, I want a four-bedroom house and a Jacuzzi’ and too often the lenders were willing to do that. People were not even asked to show their incomes,’ he said.”
“Author Barry Ritholtz told the audience, ‘We never took the full hit, and the full effect, of the burst IT bubble back in 2000, and what has been happening recently is really the residue of that whole mess.’”
“Buchholz didn’t sugar coat his view of the current economic mess. ‘Retail sales in the US have almost collapsed. If you walk though some stores, they’re empty,’ he noted. ‘In the UK, I recently read that the Tooth Fairy was slashing her rates; before, she used to leave a Pound-twenty for each tooth, now it’s down to just a Pound.’”
“Our foreclosures are an embarrassment, totaling 7,196 in the four-county Tampa Bay area in December alone. Home construction is floundering. Tampa scraped together a record-low 932 housing starts in the last quarter of 2008. Even local apartment owners have gone begging for tenants.”
“Real estate insiders are pleading with Washington for help. Home builders hit the federal government up for a new $22,000 maximum tax credit for new home purchases. Real estate organizations press for universal 4.5 percent mortgage rates. Antiforeclosure advocates seek massive loan forgiveness for homeowners drowning in debt. But that’s the wrong approach.”
“None of these measures will cure what ails us. As we learned during the latest credit meltdown, somebody’s free lunch becomes somebody else’s starvation diet. Squeeze one end of the proverbial balloon, and the other end sprouts a tail. What we need is a restoration of confidence that comes with a cleansed market neither hobbled nor helped by fly-by-night government intervention.”
“The market doesn’t need more hot wiring but a cold water cure.”
Tomorrow I am going to post an unusual weekend topic. I got an email from a person whose family has a problem with a housing loan. She agreed to let me put it out to you and wants your input in light of current events.
Anyhoo, another great week! My thanks to those who support this blog. Please check back this weekend.
Thanks for all your work here Ben.
Here’s a great video from CNN:
http://money.cnn.com/video/#/video/news/2009/01/30/news.griffin.squatters.cnnmoney
LOL. Too funny…..way to go Rep. Marcy Kaptur! Urging your flock to stop paying the mortgage and squat in the house. This must REALLY promote personal responsibility among your constituents.
Should they stop paying their government as well when their bad fiscal behavior dominos into higher taxes for the entire nation?
I think I’m going to stop making payments on my house now.
Why should I be the last person in America still making payments on my badly upside-down house?
Everybody should stop making payments and make the banks show the paper. I. E., make the banks show they still hold the mortgage. And if they don’t…screw em…you now own the house free and clear IMO. I do not see how the banks can be collecting the mortgage payments if they are not in possession of the mortgage documents.
Awesome idea — screw the hedgies and other infestors who bought toxic MBS. We the People are going to end up owning plenty of the paper, anyway, through the Big Bad Bank Bailout, so you may as well collect your share from the other side of the deal up front
Is there any way to determine up front whether the paper will be shown if you stop making payments?
that would be a good question to ask the real estate attorney whose services the people should have used before they bought their house. The banks have been playing free and loose and I would bet ignoring the rules. If we can make the banks have a bad day I say go for it. But just based on the pure odds that banks have been delinquent in their fiduciary duties I say go for it. After all what’s the difference. People were buying houses gambling on the fact that house prices would continue to appreciate. Why not stop making payments and gambling on the fact that the banks are not holding the paper and in fact do not know where they are. It’s poker time.
You gotta be kidding me. After all this time, you’re really an fb? Get the out of here! Anyway, please call or email me before you take any other action, because I love you buddy. Really. take it slow and let’s talk in the morning. Or now if you need to . Hang in there. I will be there for you. 631- 882 5532. I am here. Phone is on. Call me.
How come this number kept asking me for a credit card?
(And before someone calls it - I’M KIDDING!)
Well, perhaps I misread your comment. Sorry. But I’m still here. Just to let you know.
In theory, it sounds like a good idea…not paying your mortgage until the bank shows its note. However, what if the bank never comes up with the note, but you have to sell “your” house?
You better believe the mortgage will show up on a title search and, in some states, the foreclosure notice might too. Who would buy a house with a note that hasn’t been paid off? What if the original paperwork gets found right after somebody takes a chance and buys it. Would title insurance cover a situation like that? Would it even be possible to obtain title insurance?
Something tells me America can’t work this way. No private entity would make a loan unless it was backed by the government. Can you imagine if it came to that?
You’re blonde, right, Ben?
My sister just sent me this link:
‘Women dye hair blonde amid recession’
http://tinyurl.com/br7atg
Luckily for me, my head just natchrelly sprouts the right color to make me complete with ‘childlike ignorance’ and also ‘more wealthy’. Whoooo Hooooo! Awright!
Hey, come to think of it, where’s my Lamborghini gone to? Oh, well, who cares, I’m just gonna hop and skip down the sidewalk til I see another one I fancy.
If you spot the Lamborghini, I got the crowbar.
Lamborghini is a large tractor manufacturer in Italy that makes some cars as a sideline….
I’ve seen Lamborghini tractors in several of the wineries in northern California.
Now I’m always going to have this mental picture of a tiara-wearing frizzy blond driving a tractor whenever I hear the name.
“Lamborghini is a large tractor manufacturer in Italy that makes some cars as a sideline…”
I did not know that. Thanks.
‘…of a tiara-wearing frizzy blond driving a tractor whenever I hear the name.’
Matter of fact, I can drive a tractor, so there. I learned one day when one of the illegals working in the apple orchards near my house went home and left the tractor parked there. I studied the thing and then I hopped on and gave it a go. Ah, the good ol’ days…
And it’s ‘fluffy’. Fluffy, my good man—not ‘frizzy’.
‘If you spot the Lamborghini, I got the crowbar.’
Yeah, but do you got ‘childlike ignorance’? Because that’s part of it. Hey, I don’t make the rules. I only obey them.
Funny how the stereotypical blonde is really a brunette, ain’t it?
Yeah! THEM’S the one giving everyone the idea that blonde’sr dumb! Blondes ISN’T dumb! And we got good grammar, too! So there!
Blonde humor, I love this one:
http://www.facebook.com/ext/share.php?sid=41683594597&h=1FAAb&u=qiryN
Great Friday round up!
I got an email from a person whose family has a problem with a housing loan. She agreed to let me put it out to you and wants your input in light of current events.
lol…is she new here?
Ben:
Do we have to be nice to this one?
“A large pool of homes on the market and low interest rates make this a great time to buy a house, agents said. ‘This is a freaking great time to buy a house,’ Lawrence said.”
I wouldn’t buy anything from someone who told me it was ‘a freaking great time to buy’ it. Well, maybe some marijuana or else a puka-shell necklace from a cute unwashed hippie chick selling jewelry on the boardwalk, but that’s where I draw the line.
Low interest rates make this a bad time to buy a house. With interest rates this low, the ONLY place for them to go is up. When interest rates go up, the value of homes drops (because it now costs more to buy the same property).
The time to buy a home is when interest rates are high; the value of the home should be at it’s lowest. Then, when interest rates are low, refinance. Until these people understand this VERY basic relationship (if you’ve EVER read about yield or bonds, it’s exactly the same thing) they will just continue to make these stupid mistakes.
Until these people understand this VERY basic relationship (if you’ve EVER read about yield or bonds, it’s exactly the same thing)…
How does that relate to puka shells and pot, though?
They’re inversely related, of course! It’s quite basic.
Yeah, but that’s cause you know’n those fancy wurds like “inverse” and stuff like dat. The level of math that most of this country is able to comprehend is.. Well, staggeringly bad. Frankly, without basic math, you are setting yourself up for a very hard life in today’s world. Fraction, percentages, and the 4 basic operations (add, multi, sub, div) are really all you need. But; sadly, I’d say that only about 1/3rd of the people you stop on the street could tell you what 3% of 200 is (quickly). Or estimate 25% off of 400 dollars.
Let alone trying to explain compound interest and inverse relationships.
Dude, if you bring the pot, I’ll bring the puka shells.
Or the inverse.
If you can integrate all of those concepts then you’ll differentiate yourself from the masses.
After all the pot and the puka, you either (k)New ton or you lieb-nitz behind.
Sigh. This is going downhill so quickly.
Manitowoc Co. trimming 2,100 jobs in crane division
Firm blames construction slowdown
Shares of Manitowoc have tumbled almost 90% since reaching a high last April.
Thursday, the shares closed at $5.91, down nearly 14%.
http://www.jsonline.com/business/38676722.html
I’d say that only about 1/3rd of the people you stop on the street could tell you what 3% of 200 is…
There are 10 kinds of people in the world…
…those who understand binary notation, and those who don’t.
Fewer understand simple fractions or basic math. Less than one in four get the right answer for two divided by one half. Ive seen dozens of off the wall answers.
And here I thought that when they were talking about “complex” financial instruments, I thout they the were saying that the profits were imaginary.
‘Sigh. This is going downhill so quickly.’
Amazing how often it does, fasty, and how very steep the slope is, when you’re involved.
I hate to rain on this brainy parade however I am going to do just that. Some of us are not math illiterate, we have just forgotten what we were taught. I can admit at times “I am not smarter than a fifth grader.” Hard to believe since some of you want to believe the worst about people.
There are three kinds of people that understand the value of nulls.
Those who do, those who don’t and
That was not the case from 1980-1987 in the NY area.
“That was not the case from 1980-1987 in the NY area.”
Bull$hit. Sales in the northeast collapsed in 1980 and sales volume hit bottom in 1982, all due to high interest rates. Granted, they relit the fire in 1983 that created a bubble(seemed big at the time) that burst in 1990.
On long island the time frame was a little different. The bubble burst and peaked in 1987, maybe early 1988. RE is local,don’t ya know.
The collapse on LI had a lot to do with the end of the cold war. Grumman had been the largest employer with Fairchild, AIL and Hazeltine trailing behind them. Both of my parents worked in defense, one summer I joined them at a competitor as a temp. I remember one night at dinner talking about how even though my dad’s company had lost the contract, my mother’s company had won it. The 80’s were a really, really good time on LI. The early 90’s sucked.
I say approximately the same thing (and add the brain dead synopsis “You can refinance a high rate. You can’t refinance a high purchase price”) every time people try to tell me this is my year to be able to buy. I never get anything but stunned silence. And it doesn’t matter how old the person is, so times of allegedly better quality math education seems irrelevant.
One thing everyone should keep in mind is that it’s extremely difficult to forecast interest rates. So if we ever get to the point in this country where we have high interest rates and cheap house prices, it would be a risky move to buy a house using a mortgage with a high interest rate. You might assume that you can refinance when rates go down, but you will really have no idea how it long might take for that to happen.
As long as you can well afford it with the high rate what difference does it make? Either you move forward with the original fixed rate that you can afford easily or you get to refinance if you get lucky. But since interest rates rarely stay the same for years and years at a time, buying when rates are well below historical averages is riskier than doing it when rates are well above historical averages.
Well his point is that when they’re high, nobody know how much higher they’ll go. But that’s the genius of a thirty year fixed: you don’t really care where they go from there.
It’s not really that hard to predict future rates, guys. If you have a handle on the economic climate, then you can make a reasonable prediction.
But that’s the genius of a thirty year fixed: you don’t really care where they go from there.
The big question is whether fixed-rate mortgages will continue to be available in the US — in many countries, all mortgages are variable rate.
The big question is whether fixed-rate mortgages will continue to be available in the US — in many countries, all mortgages are variable rate.
All the more reason to:
(a) never overpay for a house
(b) never pay more than you can afford, and…
(c) always have an exit plan when (a) & (b) aren’t enough
Or how about the concept of having *cash* with which to purchase your thing? If you put 50% down, then the total interest you pay on the loan is cut by 50%.
“A large pool of homes on the market and low interest rates make this a great time to buy a house, agents said. ‘This is a freaking great time to buy a house,’ Lawrence said.”
Never mind that you might lose your job.
“‘The U.S. and many of its G-7 counterparts over the past 25 years have become more and more dependent on asset appreciation,’ he wrote in his monthly investment outlook for January. ‘We became a nation that specialized in the making of paper instead of things. … We have met Mr. Ponzi and he is us — all of us.’”
So my question is in which Ponzi asset should one squirrel money in order to not get drowned in the next credit tsunami which the Fed is busily engineering. Or is it better to buy stuff (gold, houses, etc)? Luckily I am not very wealthy, so I don’t have much to lose if I bet wrong…
Warning: Rant ahead.
Ponzi scheme is a subject that I have touched upon many times before, and it’s nice to see Mr. Gross finally coming to terms with his operation. I have always stated that almost everything financial is Ponzi in essence. All Ponzi schemes are based upon the con, which in turn is based upon trust. Trust and betrayal are incredibly powerful aspects of the human experience. The amazing modern world we have created would not be possible without trust. That is why the financial ponzi schemes have worked. You have to trust almost everything you touch to work in the modern age because you have no clue how most of it operates. It’s easy to find a mark in such an environment. But now trust has turn to betrayal. Welcome to the ninth circle Wall Street.
In a system where financial capital (or digits) are supposed to be ever inflating how can it (global ponzi) not work? The new money will always come in right? Yes it should. That’s why I say that the plug was pulled on this Ponzi deliberately. The new money couldn’t keep up with the leverage that the boyz put on. The game was pushed too hard and too fast and was doomed to collapse. And the guys in the know already got out. (How did JP Morgan know to get out of their Madoff exposure last fall? Why do the estimates for bailout keep going up? Why a bad bank?) They have their paintings, mansions, bullion and watches all stashed away and untouchable. You are left with digits, an IOU or a printout with imaginary numbers on them.
Go ahead and cut their salaries and they’ll openly cry while laughing at you later in the clubhouse. They already have everything they need, and you’ll be back for their services again because you don’t know how a financial system is supposed to work. Trust me.
I agree with your post up to the last parragraph… Do they really know, or like everything else WS it is just smoke and mirrors?
What does “know” mean?
If by “know” you mean do they understand how it works then of course, they do! They do this for a living. If you mean whether they can “coherently” explain it to you then the answer is probably NO.
Most of them are momentum players, and momentum is the name of the Ponzi game.
And in answer to PB’s question, can I guess what are the likely funnels for the next one? Yeah, there are only a few, and it’s pretty clear that one of them will take off.
Do I know for sure which one it will be? Of course, not. But I’ll be shoveling my money in that direction when I see the game.
PS :- Not for academics with their “efficient markets” and “diversification” hogwash.
LOL! Great rant. And I loved the “trust me” ending. Well told.
Which is why I had such a negative reaction to Hoz’s comment in the bits bucket today… We’re not bailing out the billionaires, we’re trying to save modern finance.
SAME THING!!!
I think you give these people too much credit. They will get theirs. There IS NO WAY that they will not be getting theirs.
When I read that part, I started blowing kisses at my monitor.
I e-mailed the author and he was kind enough to write me back immediately. Undoubtedly he is of the opinion that what Madoff ran was a Ponzi, but I think we agreed in that;
“Madoff must have suffered huge trading losses. But when you don’t report those losses and then keep raising money on that fake track record, it’s pretty much a Ponzi whether that was your original intention or not” ( Al Lewis )
Thanks for responding Al. Where we differ is in the departure point. If you are faithfully married for 35 years ( and THEN have an affair! ) it doesn’t mean the entire duration of your marriage was a “sham”. It means you were happily married for 35 years and had an affair.
DennisN,
I realize you practiced “patent law” but can you “render” a legal opinion here? Firstly I want to make sure folks understand I’m *not a “Madoff Apologist” ( I have no doubt he’s guilty as charged and I want to see this guy do some ‘hard’ JT time ) Nor am I speaking of him alone.
I just think we’re getting entirely too liberal in applying the term Ponzi to everything that involves anything of value? We’ve already broadened it to a point where it needn’t even necessarily involve money?
Later tonight my wife will be driving me home from a party ( after s-e-v-e-r-a-l drinks ) and tell me to warm up the car for her. Should I turn myself in for DUI now? Does that make her an “accomplice”?
Sorry I’m not admitted in OR.
Maybe you should put your plan in writing, both of you sign it, and have it ready to hand it to any officer. You may be able to defeat any of the “intent” factor of a prima facie case in a potential DUI prosecution.
Why doesn’t she know how to fire up a car? I’m confused. She obviously knows how to DRIVE the car.
Is she worried about being “cold” in the car? Maybe someone else at the party could start it up for you.
Where will the car be parked? On the street, or on the host’s private property? You will be better off if it’s parked on private property.
Many times I’ve parked my car in the driveway and later drank a lot over dinner. I’ve never felt bad about opening my garage door, starting the car up, and driving into the garage.
It isn’t a crime to drive plastered on private property. Having the garage door open is evidence that you intended to park the car inside, as opposed to intending to drive off someplace.
One of my neighbors is a DUI-squad cop so I do think about such things.
‘One of my neighbors is a DUI-squad cop so I do think about such things.’
Man, that is freakin’ unfortunate!
On the other hand, it’s given you cause to think things through and then share your thinkings with the rest of us, for our benefit. Because if there’s anything I hate, it’s thinking when it turns out I didn’t even have to.
my friend got a DUI after moving his car from other friend’s drive way to the street so the owner could pull into his garage, a total of 6 feet after being at the party just long enough to finish one beer. Granted said friend hates cops and gave the cop a piece of his mind during the whole ordeal which I’m sure didn’t help.
Having a cop for a neighbor has benefits - that cop car parked in his driveway at night has the effect of keeping burglars out of our neighborhood.
Driving while intoxicated is a real problem. About 30 years ago it was treated as a joke, but nowadays upon sober reflection we can see how big a problem it really is. I’ve always worked in positions where a DUI conviction is a career-ending move: first as an engineer doing defense work and later as a lawyer.
I’m constantly amazed how people aren’t up in arms at the death toll from automobile collisions (I don’t even like to call them “accidents” as that turn of phrase indicates “it’s nobody’s fault - it just happened”).
Fussing with a darned cell phone is almost as dangerous as DUI. A while back some dingbat was fussing with her cell phone while driving her SUV, “lost control” of it (another term that irks me), and ran over a bicyclist who was stopped by the curb for a red light. Squashed the bicyclist flat as a pancake. This all took place only 4 miles north of my house. The driver is now in prison for several years on a manslaughter rap.
I still haven’t heard why Mrs. DinOR can’t start up the car by herself.
What’s with this “all of us” nonsense? I don’t remember being included with the snobs at the G8 when they were all making money and I was just a freaking plebian. Now all the sudden, they’re losing their reputed wealth, and I’m supposed to be like their best friend or something. Yeah, right.
G7, G8, V8 …. You can give it a different name, but you can’t give it a different face.
Well, the vegetable juice thing is actually good for you. The others, not so much..
“As many as 40 of the biggest 100 companies may collapse by 2011 as their debt- strapped assets default.”
To be clear, this quote refers to 40 of the 100 biggest private equity buyout companies, not companies overall.
However, I think it is entirely possible that 40 of the 100 biggest U.S. companies, full stop, may collapse by 2011, wiping out shareholders and slashing the short-term position of bondholders as they are forced to accept debt for equity swaps. The market has yet to price that in.
Worst case, of course, is 100 of the biggest 100, but not even I am that pessimistic.
Still, 40 of the top 100 U.S. Companies collapsing is pretty darned pessimistic. Are you calling Dow 2000 and S&P 200 as well?
S&P below 600 anyway. Some of those collapses (the autos, the financials) are pretty well priced in.
“However, I think it is entirely possible that 40 of the 100 biggest U.S. companies, full stop, may collapse by 2011, wiping out shareholders and slashing the short-term position of bondholders as they are forced to accept debt for equity swaps. The market has yet to price that in.”
I wonder if that is as unrealistic as it may seem. For example, import container traffic through the Los Angeles and Long Beach Harbors was down around 35% YOY for December. Even if not surprising, that is a huge drop. I don’t think it’s a stretch that once ever-increasing debt is taken away, the sustainable level of the American economy might be 20% less (arbitrary, but well more than single digits) than it once was. How many of those large businesses have a sustainable business model with 20 percent or less business with near term drops of double or more that? Businesses that are heavily leveraged, or need every increasing growth, or that have customers that could/would only buy their products using credit are quite vulnerable.
DRYS, Dry Ships is back down below $7. Time to buy ? Maybe?
“As many as 40 of the biggest 100 companies may collapse by 2011 as their debt-strapped assets default.”
<beavis> heh heh, heh heh, he said assets <beavis>
‘Prices in the new home market can’t come down much more, said David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. About 60 percent of builders surveyed by his association have said that they are no longer making a profit from home sales. ‘You’re paying people to take your house at that point,’ he said.”
Good thing there is such a massive foreclosure glut for prospective buyers to choose from, as otherwise the virtual shutdown of the building industry would be worrisome.
That’s because the builders bought TONS of land at the peak (which will probably be the all time peak in history) of the biggest housing/land bubble ever. The reason they can’t make a profit is because the lots they are building on (that they paid 150K each for) are in fact, worth about 10K each. There’s their entire profit, eliminated by a boneheaded move to buy land at a terrible time. No builder should have bought ANY land after ~03. If they did (which almost all did) that’s why they can’t sell at a profit today.
Homes cost about 100/sq/ft, and lots in most areas are worth next to nothing (not waterfront, and not downtown, pretty much worthless because there’s millions of acres of land just like that all over the entire country). Builders should be able to put up 3000 sq/ft homes and sell them for about 325K and still turn a decent profit.
And if they can’t? Oh well, stop building!
+1 puka shell!
Hahahahaa! (hiccup)
This morning’s paper brought news of land being donated to Habitat for Humanity Tucson. From my reading between the lines, it seemed as though the developer found a way to unload some property.
it seemed as though the developer found a way to unload some property.
It was Tucson where I first discovered my intense loathing of developers. Honeybee Canyon, Pontatoc Canyon, Tortolita, etc.
I swore at the time (mid-to-late 80’s) that the Tucson economy consisted of carpenters and masons building homes for plumbers and electricians.
When I’d see a big sign advertising some grand new development “Coming Soon”, I wanted so bad to paint over it with, “No thanks, we like the desert the way it is”
But that’s so, so, un-American…
‘It was Tucson where I first discovered my intense loathing of developers. Honeybee Canyon, Pontatoc Canyon, Tortolita, etc…I wanted so bad to paint over it with, “No thanks, we like the desert the way it is”
Testify, lavi! TESTIFY.
I see lots of wage deflation in the building trades industry. I wonder how all of those electricians, plumbers, General Contractors, etc, are going to afford the brand new F550’s that they bought over the summer?
“F550″
Is this the very first HBB meme???
I love it!
Lavi, there really is a Ford line like that. In Florida a lot of the marina guys use 650’s for towing yachts and whatnot.
http://www.f650pickups.com/indexb.html
He’s saying that because I brought it up yesterday too. It’s actually an old meme, but I like it and wanted to revive it.
It’s actually an old meme, but I like it and wanted to revive it.
I do like it, because there’s something so painfully macho about pickup truck designations/capabilities that’s frighteningly humorous to ridicule.
I didn’t know there was a 550. I know F150 (1/2 ton, had a couple meself), 250 (3/4 ton), 350 (1 ton), but I just assumed that F550 was to pickup trucks what “McMansion” is to houses.
Shows you what I know.
“You’re paying people to take your house at that point,’ he said.”
Well if at the price you paid makes it is more of a liability than an asset, you sure as hell better pay me to take it over.
I’m guessing that few builders have a deep understanding of “sunk cost.”
Well yes, the NEW home market has been largely replaced by the REO/foreclosure market. That’s what happen when you build several years of excess supply.
My Email to Warren Wolf Minneapolis paper:
SO, ARE YOU A ROOKIE REPORTER….YOU SOUND LIKE ONE
27 years the townhouse should be PAID FOR in 3 years, what did they do? Drink the koolaid and Heloc the house to death?
Serves them right …….None of you “reporter’s” ever ask those questions.
I would have sympathy if all the heloc money went for medical care and then the house dropped in price.
But you know that NEVER happens!
AMEN! I read this and thought the same thing. Where did the money go?? Something is fishy here!
Stars End
Minneapisconsin is the biggest consumer of lemon-kool-aid in the U.S. right now.
The funny part is, nobody can drink it right now, it’s frozen and yellow in the yard, but there will be plent of realtors licking it up this spring.
What’s odd is that the guy bought the place when he was 59 years old.
What the heck was he thinking - buying a THREE LEVEL house for retirement? They guy was clueless about the effects of aging.
I bought my place here when I was 53 years old with the intention of retiring in place, and I insisted that any house I bought would be a SINGLE LEVEL house with no front steps or other disability-unfriendly features.
At 40 I knew I didn’t want anything other than one level. I watched my parents struggle with a 2story that was far too big for them. No thanks.
I agree. I would stay with single level over the age of 60. But I’m probably going to remain a renter beyond 60.
How many times have we read the same story… poor (minority/single mom/large family/old person) they are upside down and can no longer afford the payments on the house that has been owned by this family for the past 150 years, the house where 105 cousins/aunts/uncles were born via a midwife, where children grew up and shot hoops on the driveway, oh how miserable,how sad…
Wait? They have owned the house for 150 years and it isn’t paid off? Did the reporter forget to ask a question?
Well at least in the intergenerational case, usually what happens is that one inhereting sibling has to buy out the others. And of course if the transfer happened in 2007, the others are glad THEY took the money instead of the house. (just like recent divorces)
‘Contracts said that whatever the developer promised doesn’t matter and you can’t rely on it and he can do whatever he wants. Buyers thought they were going to make giant profits and everybody was so excited that they basically ignored what they were signing.’”
Ignored what they were signing, probably didn’t even read it. Blinded by greed and drooling with excitement over all the easy money soon to fill their pockets! LMFAO Good on your dumb azz.
Those people definitely NEEDED a lawyer…and a family member to commit them to the Funny Farm
The worst part of that story is that they were aboard the Queen Mary, where they got you captive. Yet another reason to avoid cruise ships!
And don’t forget that they give you unlimited BOOZE on those cruise ships.
Maybe people with $236,000 to put down get it free, but mere mortals pay. I’m thinking booze, plus a huge doze of oversized ego.
See below. That construction site has a huge “Canyon Ranch” sign on the construction fence, and a huge sign in the back (beach) also.
“They made a $236,000 deposit and signed a contract for a $1.18 million unit . . . Buyers thought they were going to make giant profits and everybody was so excited that they basically ignored what they were signing.’”
I’ll ignore the typical “we’re gonna be rich–RICH!” stupidity motivating this purchase. Why would you agree to buy ANYTHING for over a $1 million without having the contract reviewed by an attorney first? Making a $1.18 million purchase is NOT the time to “basically ignore” what you are signing, let alone forego legal advice.
My first reaction was like yours. I don’t sign a $10,000 contract without my lawyer reading it. What’s wrong with these people?
Then I read the article. The buyers were business people, who must have a decent practical knowledge of contracts and transactional law.
Their claim is a load of hooey! They’re scrutinizing the marketing materials and original offers looking for an angle to back out of the deal. So now they think they may have a chance by claiming they misused the application of some brands.
They knew exactly what they were buying, but now are posing as victims to try to back out of a contract they signed.
‘This is a freaking great time to buy a house,’ Lawrence said.”
Not here in S.Carolina as this real-turd spouts, not even close. The RE sale sheets/booklets are a skinny as a rail here. Rtruds are telling us now is the time to fix up your shitbox and get ready for the big spring turn around.
“The market doesn’t need more hot wiring but a cold water cure.”
100% correct, but D.Central planning will have none of that. That’s why we are in for a looong correction, with gubmint fighting a natural correction tooth and nail all the way down.
Mr Market may obviate the need for the Fed to buy down l-t T-bond yields.
Countdown to the close: 26 min 05 sec
INVESTOR ALERT
‘Bad bank’ idea inspires Street
January 30 2009 3:31 P.M. EST
January fall sets grim tone
S&P 500 down 7% in month known for predicting market direction
Street sputters as investors digest dire reading on gross domestic product and sift through a week of downbeat economic reports.
DJIA = 8K+ or bust…
I’m waiting for S&P at 600
A one-month decline of 8.8 percent occurs at an annualized rate of
((1-8.8/100)^12-1)*100 = -66.9 percent. Try not to catch yourself a falling knife.
January 30 2009 5:19 P.M. EST
Worst start in S&P history
S&P 500 down 8.8% in month known for predicting market direction
Street sputters as investors digest dire reading on gross domestic product and sift through a week of downbeat economic reports.
Why wouldn’t they like it? Hey people love the fact that toilets whisk your poo away and you don’t have to make those cold winter trips to the outhouse. What’s not to love? Oh yeah, having your neighbors cesspit next to your well.
n.b. I grew up in a town that became incorporated (in 1898) with the express purpose of flush toilets.
Not sure if this got posted earlier (maybe in the BB). Just got a link to this in email from my realtor: Austin-area housing stats for 2008. The link is a PDF, which I’ll post below.
Here’s the link(caution: PDF): http://www.tribellarealty.com/statistics_2008.pdf
I suppose I should summarize a bit:
Median sales price is up in 2008 over 2007.
Sales volume is down.
New listings are considerably down (13.2%) - hard to put into context without inventory #s, which don’t appear to be included.
In my former area (NW Austin), median and average sales prices were steady in 2008 over 2007. $/sqft actually up a little.
Looks like Austin has held up so far….waiting to see when the bottom will fall out.
In all fairness, if they weren’t planning on leaving it for heirs, at their age it probably seemed financially stupid to not take out the equity at the peak, esp if they needed it for uncovered medical.
But yeah, why not ask.
The journalist didn’t do their job on the Reedstrom story, and I understand that sympathy can get in the way. Who wants to see struggling seniors? But, dang, if you own a townhome for 27 years, shouldn’t it be paid off–or nearly–by now. How can you tak ea 45K loss selling a house that’s nearly paid off? Obviously, there’s something that hasn’t been divulged here, like refinancings and taking money out of that house.
Otherwise, even if they sold at rock bottom prices, they’d MAKE money on the townhome.
More than likely the 45K “loss” is what the decline in value from the peak is, they can’t imagine giving up “their” money.
That’s the way I read it also.
If that is the case, eating 45k is a walk in the park compared to the cost of one of them falling down the stairs.
45K is likely nothing compared to the excess Social Security benefits they have eaten up in the ongoing Ponzi scheme, courtesy of those younger than them.
I respect people for living to an old age, which requires some measure of self-discipline, but there’s already too much perfunctory sympathy, which emotion is not really beneficial to either the sympathizer or the sympathizee, IMO. Everyone must take responsibility for the consequences of his/her decision-making, no matter their age.
‘I respect people for living to an old age, which requires some measure of self-discipline,’
Nuh uh! It just means you have to not die.
Seriously, oly, I don’t think most young people growing up today actually understand that you can’t be obese, take pills or drugs to excess, sit around doing nothing with your life, and live to be 85. It requires moderation to live to be old.
I fully expect life expectancy to begin falling soon, especially among women, who used to almost never be obese, for example. Men have always had certain issues.
What’s the point of living to 85 if you have to leave the drugs and the booze behind?
Unless you’re the next Gauss or Einstein or Joyce, it’s not like you’re leaving some glorious legacy behind.
It will be interesting to see the young generation keel over not longer after their parents do.
HA !…I’ll give you my Jack Daniel’s when you take it from my cold, dead hands
Wow, you put Joyce in with Gauss and Einstein?
Aside: When I read that Gauss had once said that anyone who doesn’t intuitively grasp that e^(pi)*i=-1 can never become a first-rate mathematician, I understood why I never made it, even though I could prove it once upon a time through a Taylor expansion.
I think Paul is 12.
Today’s “young” typically don’t smoke or overtan. They will eventually start exercising once they get old enough to want someone else to have sex with them.
Methinks you grossly underestimate the early-death consequences of obesity and how rare it was in the past.
‘It requires moderation to live to be old.’
Are you sure?! Jeebus! Goodbye, everyone! Nice to know yer!
Actually, I’ll be around for awhile, ‘lessen I fall out of a tree and into a bonfire. I am the product of generations of hardy pioneers who managed to make it through hideous hardships and then passed on their genes. They all lived to be 90+(females) and 75-85+(males) so they could hang out and criticise younger generations.
Why’n the H*ELL would I waste this precious gift? No, no…
I use my genetic legacy wisely–that is to say, not stupidly exercising daily and practicing self-restraint and abstemiousness, but to push this here darling carapace to its tolerance limits. And you know what?
So far, so good, that’s what.
‘What’s the point of living to 85 if you have to leave the drugs and the booze behind?’
You’re a freakin’ genious, fasty! Even if you did leave out some other good vices to eagerly embrace. Of course, we knowed you was a genious, as you speak many big mathy words.
(hiccup)
I never claimed to be “comprehensive”.
Lawd, that takes talent and effort.
“Everyone must take responsibility for the consequences of his/her decision-making, no matter their age.”
Thank you. I think there are plenty of other Floridians fine-tuned to this observation.
I’d tell you a story, but y’all’d call me a granny-hater.
The last time I was in Florida was in 1988, and my only memories are:
1. How old the people were.
2. How fat the people were.
3. How tan the people were.
4. How long the line was at the Homestyle Buffet.
5. The highest point of elevation was the landfill.
‘I’d tell you a story, but y’all’d call me a granny-hater.’
Tell us, Muggy! Pleeeeeaaaase….
How can you take a 45K loss selling a house that’s nearly paid off?
They’re probably loathe to give up that excellent stair-le-vator.
I know I would be!
‘I know I would be!’
Me, too. Think of the fun you could have, zipping up and down on full speed, zoom zoom…you could do it til you barfed and fell off! I wish I had one. I don’t have any stairs, though. Although I guess I could get one and then sit in it and make ‘zoom’ noises and pretend, until I barfed and fell off.
I suspect that Mr. and Mrs. Reedstrom barf and fall off the living room recliner.
I suspect that Mr. and Mrs. Reedstrom barf and fall off the living room recliner.
Snort!
Mean, but it made me laugh.
‘Mean, but it made me laugh.’
Sigh. Me, too. I wish I was a better person.
Unfortunately, their county doesn’t have lien information on the public site:
http://rrinfo.co.ramsey.mn.us/public/characteristic/Parcel.aspx?scrn=PmtHistory&pin=313023120074&cnt=20
(Click on the left where it says “stubs” and you can see the Reedstroms names, even though they block it out from owner info.)
They must have refied it.
“The good news is it’s less than the drop in the Dow,’ she said.”
The bad news was that so many houses were bought on margin. As a result, the loss often eclipses the investment.
Tim,
Right-e-oh! ( That’s the ‘best’ you got lady? ) Besides, take a gander at some of those losses in Monterey County! 40-48% from median just last year? Oh have fun digging your way out of ‘that’ hole?
On second thought when you bury yourself that deep ( might as well just start pulling dirt over yourself because your life is OVER! )
House across the street went for $270K at peak (idiots are stillmaking payment… well, last I checked, no notice of trustee sale yet).
Nearly identicle house down the street just went post foreclosure for $118K.
I guess that’s a good way of viewing things.
“GENTLEMEN - MARGIN CALL!!!”
Thanks, Tim, for pointing out what should be obvious upon reflection to anyone with a modicum of intelligence (which probably excludes upwards of 90 percent of NAR scum). For instance, an IMF piece I occasionally post here (most recently in last Saturday’s bits bucket) called “When Bubbles Burst” shows the median housing bust since 1960 in the developed country economies they studied left housing off by 27 percent or so, while the median stock market bust left equities down by 45 percent.
But with reasonable assumptions on leverage, the median housing market crash has a more devastating effect on household balance sheets, as most households do not borrow to buy stocks, while almost all households use leverage to speculate in real estate. For example, if p = the post-leverage share of the real estate purchase price (with 0 less than p less than 1), and assuming respective market price declines of 27 and 45 percent in real estate and stocks, a real estate investment loses more than an unleveraged equity purchase with the same amount of capital provided 27/p is greater than 45, which is true for a purchase with a downpayment amount below p* = 27/45 = 60 percent. How many real estate infesters do you know who buy a home with a 60 percent downpayment?
Silicon Valley to get hit hard by NEC layoffs
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/stories/2009/01/26/daily96.html
b..b..but DinOR…it’s “Carmel-by-the-Sea”, I MUST live there or surely I WILL die
Looks like 2200 people in Austin are going to be making 5% less this year:
http://www.bizjournals.com/austin/stories/2009/01/26/daily57.html?ana=from_rss
(a former employer of mine. Granted, I’d rather take a 5% cut than be laid off)
So we’re seeing Goldilocks without her HELOC party dress on…somebody quick, grab a reverse mortgage jacket to throw around her.
That Goldilocks. What a slut.
Hahahaha! Funny.
“Pessimistic economists have said the United States is in the midst of a 10-year deflationary period similar to what Japan experienced. Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich disagrees.”
“I don’t think that’s likely to happen. The government in Japan had no tools to deal with deflation. I think our economy is more resilient than that,” Reich said.
The tool bag looks quite empty these days.
“Tools”
What tools? A printing press.
Reich is a ‘tool’ though.
“What tools?”
Maybe something to pump up the delusion bubble.
From the Tampa Bay article:
“Banks forced to subsidize the financially reckless will collect their pound of flesh from the financially responsible. Tax credits for new homes penalize people buying existing homes.”
Exactly and that’s why I’m not buying squat until this whole miserable situation is sorted out. Hear that, Florida goobermint folks? I am NOT going to subsidize the brain-dead. California has already been sucked dry by their parasites. Not gonna happen to me. I’ll rent or squat until people finally come to their senses. Which will eventually happen.
Who wrote that article? what a well written piece. Bravo!footstompin and hand claps.
Me neither Palmy…I’m with you buddy !
Say, do you have mean snakes, hungry gators or large bugs in your backyard…it’s 26 degrees here and I have this small tent…:)
Hiya, mikey, I think the snakes, gators and large bugs are sort of lulled to sleep by our Florida cold snap (which is about like autumn or spring up north). My biggest beef with Florida wildlife is the red ants. Hate ‘em. I like to go up North during the summer so I can sit on the grass without having biting ants swarm up my shorts.
Any Floridians here ever step on a red ant hill by mistake? Not an experience I recommend. I had a nasty bite on my foot that would not heal and it morphed into a basal cell carcinoma which fortunately was excised with no problem, but still, that’s how nasty those buggers can be.
“I like to go up North during the summer so I can sit on the grass without having biting ants swarm up my shorts.”
That’s timely. My wife and I were just discussing this today, because our littleman loves being outside, but these ants are a problem.
I was bit by one a few month;s back, and no chit, it feels like a razor slicing deep. I couldn’t believe how much one little bite hurt. Imagine getting swarmed?
For the uninitiated, they band together in floods. So, in hurricane aftermaths, you have the added pleasure of avoiding fire ant balls. Google it.
For sure Palmy, my uncle down in Seibing has been a snowbird for 30 yrs and I get a yearly update report on fishing, critters and local food from him.
I ran with the real snake-eaters in from the Mojave, Texas, Carolina’s and Nam but I did freak in Lakeland, Fl once after a storm many years ago.
I noticed a good sized mocassian as I was going to work one morning, slithering in the grass, 10-15 ft from my little neighbor’s girl and her baby brother. Their Mom was a northern gal, who promptly quit watching her babies from her kitchen window after that visitor:)
Anybody read Todd Bucholz’s comments in the Cayman Island paper? I commented on this topic a while ago. He mentions the deflationary pressures of eastern europeans entering the job market, after the fall of communism. As well as, billions of chindians and their low wage scales. If you add in the productivity of the internet, you get tremendous global deflationary pressures in a short period of time. What he doesn’t add, but IMHO believe, is that our PTB felt they could create these inflationary bubbles with impunity, almost as a counterbalance. Anyway, that has been my amateur economist view on things, for couple of years, and it’s the first time I’ve heard it acknowledged.
It’s widely heard actually as the criticism of the “Greenspan productivity miracle”.
And those Chindians haven’t gone away either.
Palmie and I have been harping on that topic for years.
“…that has been my amateur economist view on things,…”
There has never been a better time to be an amateur economist
““An audience of more than 300 concerned business people crammed into the Ritz-Carlton, Grand Cayman, ballroom for an in-depth, all-day financial seminar. ”
Evidently they weren’t suffering financially - no Holiday Inn for them in Myrtle Beach! I’m guessing that’s also where all their money was hidden.
Wow, I flew over that sucker yesterday, on my way from Medellin to Miami. Had my nose glued to the window all the way. Then you cross western Jamaica and Cuba, where the houses are little dots and all the roads are dirt. It was a beautiful day. Didn’t even get hassled at MIA.
“However, I think it is entirely possible that 40 of the 100 biggest U.S. companies, full stop, may collapse by 2011, wiping out shareholders and slashing the short-term position of bondholders as they are forced to accept debt for equity swaps. The market has yet to price that in.”
“I wonder if that is as unrealistic as it may seem…How many of those large businesses have a sustainable business model with 20 percent or less business with near term drops of double or more that? Businesses that are heavily leveraged, or need every increasing growth, or that have customers that could/would only buy their products using credit are quite vulnerable.”
Leverage is the thing. Not only may non-viable businesses be wiped out, even viable ones may have to reorganize. They borrowed lots of money to buy back stock to offset stock handed to executives without admitting they were dilluting shareholders.
Does anybody remember the commercial with the fat kid with the milk mustache saying “My parents are with AIG”? They had a ton of other really cocky commercials. Why does nobody make fun of these? Why is AIG even around anymore? This thing still has a long way to go down. DOW 1500 will be the bottom sometime in the next ten years - that is my call.
Well, that would be about 88% down from the peak which is slightly greater but in line with what happened during the Great Depression, so not totally unreasonable. If inflation “catches”, the market could rally sharply, even to new highs. But that would likely be quickly followed by hyperinflation, which I believe could result in the (de facto) elimination of the Constitution, martial law, Communism, and the market itself. A 100% decline.
I can remember when the Dow first cracked 1000 in the early 1970s. It was all over the news, but for most Americans, life went on as it had before.
“They borrowed lots of money to buy back stock to offset stock handed to executives without admitting they were dilluting shareholders.”
That is one of many scandalous standard business practices of the past decade which is unlikely to ever be rectified.
Bummer. That construction site in Miami Beach screams at you with the hugest sign saying “Canyon Ranch”. These people did not know they bought in the old Carillon? It still advertises as Canyon Ranch.
http://www.canyonranchmiamibeach.com/updates/updates-home.aspx
What’s so special about “Canyon Ranch” anyways? Never heard of it before - it would be all the same to me if it were called “Dingleberry Farms” instead..
Slim here. My business is debt-free. And, but for my mortgage, I am debt-free. So, where is my bailout?
You don’t get one. Only the irresponsible, incompetent, stupid and criminal are rewarded, doncha know? You are not a victim, shame on you.
Sorry Slim, the best you can hope for is more FREE hot air from DC for your bike tires…spend it wisely
This is for Palmy:
usatoday.com/news/nation/2009-01-29-ms13_N.htm
I’ve dealt with some variations of these gangs at, get this, the 6th grade level.
Hey, Muggy, yeah, I read that article and it’s some scary stuff. People are pretty much in denial on it and how this has come about.
But I’m curious, what do you mean about dealing with these gangs at the 6th grade level? That’s one thing that REALLY bothers me, how can kids study when they have dicks like these breathing down their necks?
One thing’s for sure, though, people in the US need to take a good long look at how they encourage this sort of thing each time they take a toke or put something up their nose or pop a pill. It is not a victimless crime, and I was savaged by one poster here for my stand on drugs. I’m sure he doesn’t connect the shooting of some innocent bystander with the doobie he’s sucking on, but that’s where it sits. One thing I can’t fault Mexicans for, when they say, if you don’t like the crime, quit taking the drugs, quit being a market for our gangsters.
Drugs could be a victimless crime if we decriminalized it. Prohibition just drives up the price, creating massive profit potential which causes gang violence as they fight over the profit.
It’s victimless if I grow my own and don’t share.
Wow…this gang should have invested in …Popcorn
Operator of Jefferson ethanol plant files for bankruptcy
By Rick Romell of the Journal Sentinel
Posted: Jan. 30, 2009 7:31 p.m.
Renew Energy LLC, operator of a year-old ethanol plant in Jefferson, sought protection from creditors in U.S. Bankruptcy Court Friday.
The company listed debts of $100 million to $500 million and assets in the same range.
The largest unsecured creditor listed is Olsen’s Mill Inc., which is owed $20 million, according to the
http://www.jsonline.com/business/38722007.html
something sounds a little shady in this story
Ethanol plants always have the potential problem of embezzlement.
NAR Scum: Housing affordability is at a record high.
Me: Why can’t we afford to buy a home, then, even though our family makes well above the median income for America’s Finest City, and above the median for the zip code in which we would like to buy? And how come affordability is increasing at a record pace (at least in San Diego)?
‘Tis a puzzlement!
New York Times
Economix
Explaining the Science of Everyday Life
January 30, 2009, 10:26 pm
Housing Affordability at Record High
By Catherine Rampell
One of the upsides of a crashing-and-burning housing market, as Edward Glaeser noted back in October, is that buying a home becomes more affordable.
And indeed, according to an index released by the National Association of Realtors, housing affordability was at an all-time high in December.
The Housing Affordability Index composite level for December was 158.8. A composite H.A.I. value of 158.8 means that a family earning the median income has 158.8 percent of the income needed to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. (In other words, a higher index number means housing is more affordable; a lower index number means housing is less affordable.) The index had fallen during most of the housing bubble, when it became more and more expensive to buy a home. But as you’ll see in the chart below, December’s composite level was the highest the index has reached since the association began collecting this data in 1971.
As posters here have sporadically opined for years now, high end housing will be the last to get crushed in this worst-last real estate storm.
Wall Street Journal
* BUSINESS
* JANUARY 30, 2009, 11:47 P.M. ET
Housing Down. Rich Hit Most?
Here Are Four Reasons Luxury Homes Are No Shelter From the Storm
The Realtors and analysts who said the top of the housing market would be immune to the rest of the market’s travails have now mostly given up. Most agree high-end homes have followed the rest of the market into the tank.
But what if the high end actually does worse than the rest of the market? Consider:
Jumbo Defaults.
…
Fewer Buyers.
…
Worst Regions.
…
The Indebted Rich.
…
—Robert Frank, The Wealth Report
Where is LA Investor girl these days? I miss her reassurances that high end housing is somehow immune…
The inventory buildup is a sign that demand fell off the cliff while supply continued apace. Unless economic stimulus some how magically and instantaneously compensates for the numbing effect of massive job losses on consumption demand, supply will follow suite and GDP has further to fall going forward.
Wall Street Journal
* JANUARY 31, 2009
Economy Dives as Goods Pile Up
By KELLY EVANS
The U.S. economy turned in its worst performance in a quarter-century in the closing months of 2008, and risks are growing that the current months could be even worse.
Gross domestic product, a gauge of the nation’s output, fell at a 3.8% annual rate in the fourth quarter, adjusted for inflation, from the previous quarter. The decline was the largest since 1982, though still well below the postwar record 10.4% quarterly drop seen in 1958.
While the fall was not as steep as expected — most forecasts had GDP falling by 5% to 6% — output was boosted somewhat by a rise in inventories of goods that were produced but not sold in the fourth quarter. Excluding the inventory adjustment, GDP fell at a 5.1% rate, which economists say more accurately reflects the nation’s weakness.