We’ll Never See That Again In California
The LA Times reports from California. “The Southern California real estate crash has finally reached the high-end areas of the Westside. Home prices in Beverly Hills, Santa Monica and Malibu — which continued to soar well into 2008 — finally tanked at the end of the year, losing between 26% and 30% of their value in just a few months, the latest data show. The sudden drop came as a surprise to Shelley Conn, who remained a believer in the myth that the wealthier parts of the Westside were immune until she put her Santa Monica house on the market last spring.”
“She and her husband, Bill, had been offered $2.4 million for the three-bedroom just months before, so she listed the house for $2.3 million. But it didn’t sell until November, after the couple dropped the price to $1.9 million. In Conn’s wealthy neighborhood, few residents thought anything would drop below $2 million. ‘I didn’t believe it until the end,’ Conn said.”
The Contra Costa Times. “The effects of the mortgage meltdown and recession have rippled through Contra Costa County, but one region is taking the hit particularly hard. Residents of East Contra Costa County — which includes Pittsburg, Antioch, Oakley and Brentwood — are bearing the brunt of the financial impact, according to the Employment and Human Services Department. And they’re reaching out for help.”
“Julian Rocha never thought he would turn to public assistance. A 20-year carpenter who helped build houses, the Antioch resident owned a home and had always been able to provide for his wife and four children. Then the bottom dropped out of the housing market, and Rocha was laid off and found himself unable to pay his mortgage or register his car.”
“‘It’s difficult because I never take benefits of that kind because I am working all the time very hard,’ said Rocha, whose first language is Spanish. ‘The economic situation is very bad.’”
From Bloomberg. “The cost of a Golden Gate Bridge view from the top of San Francisco’s tallest residential building just got 15 percent cheaper. Prices of all condominiums in the downtown Millennium Tower will be cut amid the city’s biggest housing glut since the dot-com crash in 2001, according to city planning data. The offer includes apartments already sold in the 60-story, 419- unit high-rise being built in the South of Market area.”
“More than 2,300 condos, including buildings by Tishman Speyer Properties LP and Lennar Corp., came on the market last year and construction of at least 2,200 units has been halted, city data show. ‘When the market was humming along, demand kept up with the supply coming on line,’ Vince Malta, former president of the California Association of Realtors, said in an interview. ‘Now you simply have supply exceeding demand.’”
“Millennium’s discount…may not be enough to attract potential buyers such as Joe Mahimainathan, 31, who abandoned his six-month search for a condo because of the faltering market. ‘I wonder if a condo is even a good thing to buy,’ said Mahimainathan.”
“‘Three years ago, people would stand in line to sign a condo contract sight-unseen, in an office five blocks away,’ said Ilse Cordoni, president of the San Francisco Association of Realtors. Now, prospective buyers want to physically tour a ‘finished product,’ instead of viewing staged models or videos in off-site sales centers, she said.”
The Santa Cruz Sentinel. “New housing starts in the Santa Cruz area dropped like a hammer last year. Various building departments in Santa Cruz County issued 42.1 percent fewer permits for new homes in the month of December, and 58.3 percent fewer permits for the year compared to 2007, according to the Construction Industry Research Board. Total housing production in California in 2008 was at the lowest level on record, according to the California Building Industry Association. ”
“‘It has a big impact with regards to the community,’ said Rafael Adame, building official for the Watsonville Community Development Department. ‘A lot of homes are empty because of foreclosures and that’s creating lot of other issues.’”
“Because of the economy, people are living in garages and doubling up in homes. There is blight in some neighborhoods and vagrancy so city officials who would normally be fielding permit applications and handling inspections are busy with new tasks. ‘It’s kind of a reversal,’ Adame said. ‘It’s mainly enforcement and foreclosures whereas before we were doing inspections. It’s going to be a budget issue.’”
The Times Herald. “Home prices in Solano County dropped more than 44 percent in December compared to the same month the previous year, though sales skyrocketed here as they did statewide, the latest industry figures show. Countywide, the median price for homes sold fell to $206,000 last month from $369,750 in December 2007, according to the California Association of Realtors. Fairfield’s median price fell furthest — 54 percent — to $191,000 from $415,000. Vallejo’s was next, sliding just over 49 percent, to $162,000 from $319,750.”
“Realtor Jeff Dennis said sales in December were up about 230 percent over a year ago, with a mix of investors and residents snatching up bargain-basement deals. ‘The affordability index a few years ago was in the low teens — meaning only a very few people earning the area’s median income could afford the area’s median-priced home,’ he said. ‘Now it’s like 48 percent.’”
The Daily Bulletin. “Over the past year, the Inland Empire has shed more than 38,500 jobs, bringing the unemployment rate to 10.1 percent in December. Most of these job losses were in construction and related industries. The old engine of growth in the Inland Empire, development, has been stymied.”
“To see this, one would need to examine the movement of land prices, which is an indirect measure of the opportunity and optimism in a real estate market. ‘Land prices have taken a nose dive in the past year, moving from $15 per square foot for development ready land a year ago to around $8 per square foot today,’ says Rick Nunez, Senior Associate in Colliers International’s Ontario office.”
The Press Enterprise. “It was only a few years ago that economists were talking about how the housing bubble was costing Inland Southern California its advantage as the affordable place for buyers. The area was at close to full employment, but home prices were going up too fast.”
“Now more than 186,000 Inland workers are unemployed, many more are underemployed, and almost everyone is nervous about the state of the economy. It means that, despite a huge decline in home prices, there won’t be enough buyers in 2009, Chapman University economists said in their annual forecast.”
“In early 2005, when the median home price in Inland Southern California was about $340,000, only one in five people made enough to qualify for a typical 30-year fixed mortgage with 20 percent down. The median single-family home price has dropped to about $209,000 in Riverside County, and $180,000 in San Bernardino County, according to by DataQuick.”
“‘Recessions come to an end,’ said Esmael Adibi, Chapman’s chief economist. ‘Eventually we would come out of this. The question is, how long would it take.’”
The Recordnet. “The producers of the ‘Deals on the Bus’ series by Discovery’s TLC channel, the documentary-style series…will show a new real estate trend: People riding in tour buses in the quest to buy nice yet affordable homes in communities hard hit by the housing downturn. ‘It’s kind of like speed dating for homes,’ said executive producer Carlos Ortiz of Actual Reality Pictures, an independent Los Angeles-based film company that has filmed such reality-genre programming as ‘Flip That House’ for TLC.”
“Ortiz said the show aims to capture without manipulation the real action of those looking to buy their first homes, and the focus goes on the chase for a home and the positive opportunities in a down residential real estate market. Contrast that with Australia’s ‘60 Minutes’ take last year on the same Dias foreclosure bus tour in Stockton, where the reporter described the tour-bus riders as ‘vultures - here to pick the bones of the subprime crisis.’”
“One of the local stars will be Albert Jimenez, a Stockton meter changer for PG&E, who is staging a family party tonight during the show premiere because he not only bought a nice 2,400-square-foot foreclosure home in Stockton for $125,000 - ‘The home looks so good you’d think it was new’ - but he’s also doing it on national TV.”
“In this market, that means a 5 percent 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage of $903 a month, including property taxes and insurance, for Jimenez, who makes about $60,000 annually. ‘That’s only about $150 more than my apartment was, and it’s three times the size,’ he said.”
The Modesto Bee. “The average Stanislaus apartment rented for $819 per month during October, November and December. That was $1 more than the year before, according to Realfacts. Vacancy rates climbed to nearly 7 percent. In 2000, before the region’s home building boom began, less than 2 percent of apartments were empty.”
“Merced rental rates are even further behind and remain among the lowest in California. They now average $735 per month, only 6.1 percent more than four years ago. Rental home rents also have become a bargain throughout in the region. ‘The economy is driving the rental prices down,’ said Kris Marin, who manages about 250 rental properties in the Northern San Joaquin Valley. ‘There are a lot of vacancies. It’s hard to find good, qualified tenants if the rent is too high.’”
“And once tenants get in — whether it’s an apartment or a home — most don’t have to worry about rent increases. ‘You don’t want to scare them away by raising the rent,’ explained Marin. She said landlords sometimes even will lower rents to keep good tenants.”
The Merced Sun Star. “The year 2008 saw sales in Merced County increase 61 percent over the previous year. Although continued strong sales activity is expected, bank foreclosures will certainly outpace them the first two quarters of the new year. The flood of bank-owned properties has had devastating effects on property values. Last year saw prices fall 38 percent over the previous year. In a normal market with this type of sales activity, prices would be going up, but this isn’t a normal market.”
“My first day as a Realtor, I sold a house. The home was on Vine Circle in Atwater, a new one. It was a 3-bedroom, 1.5- bath with 1,072 square feet that I sold for $66,500. That was in August of 1989, 20 years ago. I have that same house listed today for $70,500.”
“If that doesn’t demonstrate how far values have plummeted, then nothing will. Properties are now selling below what it would cost to rebuild them. Vacant lots are selling for less than it took to develop them. In fact, the cost of building fees in Merced is now nearly three times the market value of the residential building lot.”
“Brace yourself for another wave of bank-owned properties soon to hit Merced County as government tinkering has backfired. As this wave approaches, prices will continue to trend downward. Bad news for banks, good news for the consumer.”
The Daily Press. “If 2008 was the year of the default, 2009 may be the year of the redefault. More than half of loans modified in the first quarter of 2008 fell delinquent within six months, according to recent data from a top bank regulator. The trend has left officials investigating: Are the modified mortgages badly written? Or have cash-strapped, unemployed homeowners accumulated too much increased credit card debt to afford even reduced payments?”
“One of the problems is that when people come to lenders for help in securing a more affordable mortgage, the lender will set modifications that leave them with a minimal amount of disposable income, according to real estate attorney Steve Vondran, who serves clients in the Victor Valley.”
“‘That only allows them to afford the house and have a little bit of breathing room,’ Vondran said. ‘They set them up for disaster, really, because if another hardship comes along … they’ll be right back where they started. It’s kind of a vicious cycle.’”
“Another issue, Vondran said, is that some modifications are being done by brokers and third-party groups who may not have the expertise or motive to really help the client. ‘I’m getting a lot of people calling for an attorney because they’ve been duped by brokers who are not in compliance,’ he said.”
The Appeal Democrat. “Plummeting revenues due to the construction slowdown will lead to layoff notices for eight Yuba County employees and the deletion of 12 vacant positions. Supervisor Mary Jane Griego noted the development boom that preceded current conditions and that she said was spurred in part by dramatic increases in housing prices in Placer and Sacramento counties. Those increases helped push development into Yuba County, she said.”
“‘We’ll never see that again,’ Griego said of the extraordinary rise in home values in this region and the rest of California.”
‘Recessions come to an end,’ said Esmael Adibi, Chapman’s chief economist. ‘Eventually we would come out of this. The question is, how long would it take.’
‘He…bought a nice 2,400-square-foot foreclosure home in Stockton for $125,000. In this market, that means a 5 percent 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage of $903 a month, including property taxes and insurance, for Jimenez, who makes about $60,000 annually. ‘That’s only about $150 more than my apartment was, and it’s three times the size,’ he said.’
Here’s a challenge for all these people who get all the press by saying housing will have to ‘rebound’ (IE, return to bubble levels) for the economy to pick back up;
If I’m right and historic norms must be returned to make things work again, then places like San Diego, Stockton and Merced should begin righting themselves sooner than LA or the Bay Area. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
There was this little blurb in the North County Times:
‘Was: $420,000 in 2006. Sold: $130,000 in November 2008. Deal: 69 percent discount. This 1,000-square-foot, two-bedroom and one-bath house was built in 1955…The house, on Ohio Avenue near Ash Street and East Valley Parkway in Escondido, was purchased in 2006 with no money down and a loan from subprime specialist Argent Mortgage. Its recent price tag was also lower than the $146,000 paid three sales ago —- in 1999.’
I’m not being mean or cynical but $130K for an old 2 bed 1 bath still seems to be too much, my gut says maybe $40-60K would be about right.
I wouldn’t pay that much either. Perhaps some locals can give us the rents in the area.
He (implicitly) mentions the rent in his statement.
It was about $750 ($900 - $150.)
OK, so he’s paying another $200-ish in maintenance, taxes and insurance. so it still pencils out to about $60K (at current rents which will be dropping.)
Yeah, not a good move. Knife-catcher.
He had been living in a small apartment, whereas now he’s living a nice and spacious house. The 2-bedroom Escondido house is a different story. Not related to this guy.
Rents are about $1200-$1400 for this area near Palomar Hosp. for 2bd/1ba. 103K is not too far off the mark for affordabilty in a “normal” employment scenario. This area is not far from I-15 & 78 for commuting. It’s a working class neighborhood and some streets are OK and some have a few too many in need of general maintenance. There are worse areas of Escondido and better ones I suppose. Escondido has never been my cup of tea unless you’re talking out back along San Pasqual Rd & 78 on the way to the Wild Animal Park & Ramona and on the west side of the 15 toward Lake Hodges off Via Rancho Pkwy.
BTW “East County” is a very big area encompassing Escondido/Rancho Bernardo/Poway/Ramona south to Spring Valley/Alpine & Lakeside…..
Escondido isn’t the best area of San Diego County, but nothing in San Diego will ever be $40-60k. That’s just wihsful thinking.
There are 178 places in East County with at least 2 bedrooms being offered for rent at or below $1100/month.
‘That’s just wihsful thinking.’
That reminds me of the guy in Oakland who chided me about how low things could go there, because of high development fees:
‘the cost of building fees in Merced is now nearly three times the market value of the residential building lot’
IMO, real estate is only worth the present value of the future cash flows. I didn’t dream this up. It’s what I was taught in college by some of the best people in the business. And I wouldn’t personally pay $400 month to live in a house like that, unless it was in a super sweet location.
I guess it depends on how much people are getting paid. Currently, the pay in SD is high enough to support $130k for a 2 bedroom house, although, as I said Escondido isn’t exactly a vacation spot. We’ll see what happens with the employment situation, though. If you can buy a house in Escondido for $40k, then you are most certainly in the depths of a very serious depression. Worse than most of us (even Jas) probably would have predicted.
I just checked out Zillow, and foreclosure houses with similar stats are listing at just above $100k, and below their 1999 prices (also at less than 1/2 their Zestimates). If you can get one at that price, then it’s probably worth it, but I’ll bet they get bid up.
I sort of doubt that a house valued at $114k in 1999 will ever sell for $40k, but we’ll see. I actually hope that doesn’t happen.
I know a guy who lived in OC in the 90’s who remembers the price movement in great detail. I believe he said prices there headed up in 1996.
I think we are seeing the fring areas, like Escondido, getting back in line with incomes.
We are going to have to make some guesses on velocity of money effects, long term trends exc.
One thing with coastal areas like these. IN LA; things lag because we are further from the new home markets. Escondido is closer to Temecula/Morano Valley. They get hit first and tend not to overshoot as high. As prices go up the pace of building accelerates much faster.
Now, as a long term trend you might see more out migration of jobs to areas like Escondido, Stockton, the midwest, the south exc. An area like LA will probably hang on for a long time close to the water. Eventually it will crash though.
Beach houses have some special appeal IMHO, but once you are 1/2 mile or more from the beach the premium really drops. OK some special allowance for really good views but still… after a mile or so you probably drive to the beach. Is a 15 minute drive or a 30 minute drive a big deal? Compared to having to live in the beach traffic?
Not to mention a lot of the beach districts you have to deal with partiers, crime and other BS. What is the premium on that?
I’m also seeing plenty of places close in, like Anaheim, heading back to sanity. Plenty of under 300K houses out there.
On the price drops: a lot of places are in line with income again. Probably not that much more of a drop to go. Mish et al had some nice graphs the last couple of weeks. Still very bubbly in some areas but much of the country and california have corrected. I guess we are going to see how far incomes drop, credit market change and oversupply, effect overall prices.
Westside LA is still a mess. Plenty of houses that are greater than 2X rental cost on equivalent mortgage with low rates.
Hope Mr BigV is doing well in his search. We are suddenly in trouble. Lay offs hitting us now.
Good luck all.
My friend baught a house in HB in OC 1995 for $210000 south of 405, near Magnolia and Warner. In 2005 it tested $700000 and now it is around mid $ 400000. I still would call those prices “California dreammin…” . Citibank stock is $3 ($86 year and half ago), and people can’t find a job in fast food places… I think it is very realistic to test 1995 prices again in 20012…
Escondido is closer to Temecula/Morano Valley.
As a former Escondidan I agree that Escondido isn’t the Pearl of the Orient. Still, it beats a lot hoods in LA.
And its way closer to Rancho Bernardo than it is to Temecula. If the traffic was flowing I could get from my house to RB Drive in about 15 minutes. IIRC its about 40+ minutes to Temecula.
Its also still overpriced. Our old, built in 1989, 1400 sq ft house got as high as 550K during the bubble (we sold it before the bubble) is supposed to be worth 300K according to zillow, which means its probably would only fetch 250K. We sold it for 140K in 1995.
Comment by james
2009-02-02 13:19:31
“I think we are seeing the fring areas, like Escondido, getting back in line with incomes.”
Now let’s observe how the incomes come back to fundamentals of the economy. Then we will revisit again the price/income ratio.
“but nothing in San Diego will ever be $40-60k. That’s just wihsful thinking.”
Maybe, but I wouldn’t be so sure.
Ever been to Hemet? It’s about 50 miles north of Escondido up the I15, and very similar to Escondido and parts of inland San Diego. There are plenty of places less than $50K
Heck there are probably less illegals in Hemet than Escondido.
Well be it 130k or 60k or whatever, at least we’re trending in the right direction! Just imagine what a country we could have if homes were priced at a level where (1) parent could stay at home w/ the kids?
At yesterday’s in-law SuperBowel bash I was outside talking with all the 20-something crowd. I really feel for these kids. They never wanted all that RV’s, toys and dream homes. They never asked for ANY of this cr@p. All they wanted was to be out of their folk’s house and have a place of their own!
$40 to 60k could certainly become possible with the amount of overbuilding in some of these areas. At some point, the sheer number of homes these developers put up in areas that could be too distant from jobs has to take us below the price trends.
DinOR , don’t kid yourself, I bet they all have an xbox 360 and an iPod.
Skip,
The boys actually have quite a gun collection but have somehow managed to get my daughters involved in target shooting. I tend to think the ‘extent’ of their collections is a little over the top but hey, this is Oregon!
Not real big on gadgets and what they ‘do’ have is usually right off of Craigslist, used etc. So I’m fortunate in that they’re pretty sensible guys. We’re talking about picking up a property in “Oregon’s Outback” that we can all enjoy.
One of the in-laws bought a place on the coast, but so far… the kids have been out there (twice) So great job doing something “for the kids”! ( They HATE it there! Does nothing but rain and you can’t blow up Coleman cannisters ) Besides… it’s not “their’s” and with as much flipping as there is going on, they’re smart enough to know it probably never WILL be! So why get “attached” to their pipe dream?
And weed, and beer, and $140/mo cable bill. Back to the simple life.
I was talking about “my” kids, you must have been thinking of your’s?
They both own their vehicles outright so they ‘do’ have more disposable income than a lot of couples in their 40’s. And I think it’s to their credit that they stayed away from having so many payments.
I think… what has happened is that generation looked at an over-leveraged and over their head parents and voluntarily took a simplier path. I don’t blame them?
Who has a $140/mo cable bill?
If we pay $40/mo for cable internet we’re really ballin’. I only pay $18. We get all the tv we want from library, Netflix, and hulu.com.
Only one of my close friends has cable tv, and her mommy pays for everything.
“Escondido isn’t the best area of San Diego County, but nothing in San Diego will ever be $40-60k. That’s just wihsful thinking.”
I disagree. I believe that house prices will fall to levels shocking to even the most seasoned veterans of the industry. It’s a rout.
I completely agree with you, BB. House prices still aren’t in line with salarys yet (in the traditional sense), and the skyrocketing unemployment rate hasn’t factored in either. Throw in the broke state and local gov’ts (and the potential taxes to come) and it has all the makings of a bloodbath. Shocking will putting it mildly, I’m afraid!
Keep in mind, as the recession deepens, wages are not going up! Prices need to drop to the level wages will be at in say three years! We may all be quite surprised
+1
California is long overdue for a rude awakening. And I don’t mean only in housing. IMO after this resection is over Californians will realize that their state will be very similar to what Midwestern states are currently. California reminds me of UK – it a house of cards ready to tumble.
$130K for 1000 sq ft = $130/sq ft — too high for a not-so-nice part of town, IMO…
Agree. That is still above replacement cost… all of the overbuilding means that eventually prices will fall below replacement cost… substantially below.
What an odd way of phrasing it, “Eventually we would come out of this. The question is, how long would it take.”
Not “will come out of this” or “how long will it take,” but would.
His phrasing is no better than his prediction that the IE is only going to lose another 14,000 jobs in ‘09.
I’ll stick with Mr. T’s prediciton in Rocky III: PAIN!
(PS -Since it’s the west coast thread, the LA times had a pro cramdown article front page business section, but I’m link challenged).
Oh… “Clubber Lang” ( from Chicago for an extra added toughness )
I’ll have to check out that article. I’m definitely pro cram-down as that’s what is basically going to happen anyway. We can be orderly about this ( and firstly establish that you ‘do’ in fact have a motivation to keep your home ) or we can do it like everything else involved w/ this train wreck by openly encouraging and rewarding default. IMHO
I did the ‘housepoor’ thing once and refuse to do it again, ever. So, this economy in CA will definitely
have to reach affordable rates again..2Xincome maybe 3 x but no more.
Being slave to a box is no ‘pic a nic’ as boo boo says.
It is amazing to me that many of these properties in the East Bay cost far less than what an equivalent home in Eureka/Humboldt would sell for. I’m trying desperately to get a transfer with my job to get out of here, because home prices won’t fall and plenty of people are still buying. This is basically the only county in the state that hasn’t seen any meaningful decline.
You should leave HumbOLDt anyway. Too many old people there. You should go somewhere younger, Ant.
BTW, Zillow shows prices dropping there, although there is a slight bounce going on right now (barf).
Too many old people = not enough negative equity (usually)….which means not enough distressed sellers.
Spring harvest of the ‘weed’ cash crop will keep prices up.
prices won’t fall in the East Bay.. meaning east San Francisco Bay ?
lets see..
Dec 2007 to Dec 2008.. Alameda County (thru 12/26) -38.27%
Alameda County includes cities of Alameda, Hayward, Oakland, Berkley and lots more on that side.. and stretches east past Pleasanton all the way to Livermore.
That near 40% YOY drop is huge, imo, but prices started way high so they are still way overpriced.
Average price paid in Dec ‘07… $543,500
Average price paid in Dec ‘08 … $335,500
‘home prices won’t fall and plenty of people are still buying’
So how many places in the country did we hear this until, ‘holy crap, this thing is falling apart!’
BTW, you’ve been saying this for a while, but why then all the foreclosures up there. Search this blog, I’ve posted that info.
I’ve finally come up with this rebuttal to regional bubble denial: did your area experience a housing bubble, a mania that resulted in prices getting out of whack? If so, prices must fall.
Opps, I meant that to reply to Anthony.
Holy cow! The chief blogger misblogs?
There is no hope for us two fingered typist types.
True, Ben. But the stats confirm that Humboldt county indeed has the lowest foreclosure rate of any of California’s counties, and price declines are only 15% or so from the peak. I can just tell you what I see on the ground, and that is open houses getting a lot of traffic and sales holding up surprisingly well. Like others have commented, this is a very small area supported by a dwindling fishing/lumber industry with boatloads of southern California retirees with money to spend. Plus, the illegal drug trade is undoubtedly supporting high prices. After all, if you have to launder money, a good way to do that is through high-cost industries like housing and construction.
“Plus, the illegal drug trade is undoubtedly supporting high prices.”
I wasn’t going to say it, but since you already did, I think you’re right.
“Plus, the illegal drug trade is undoubtedly supporting high prices.”
I wonder about that in San Diego as well, as it would seem like a no brainer to launder ill-gotten drug cash into high-end housing, selling in due time after real estate price appreciation. And even if there was no appreciation, housing would still be a great place to launder illegal earnings.
I suggested this to an FBI agent I know a few months back (who lives in 4Closure Ranch) but he indicated little apparent interest in checking out my hypothesis.
P.S. If you have not seen the movie Traffic, I suggest you rent it, if for no other reason to behold the role that high end San Diego housing plays in the fictional lives of silver screen drug traders.
The price-income ratio for housing in San Diego is so chronically out of whack that it is a little hard to explain without the dark matter of illegal earnings added to fill in the equilibrium gap between sales prices and household budget constraints.
NYT article on the seriousness of Mexican Drug lord gangs/rings just jumping over the borders and growing some serious amounts of pot stateside.It would seem that it is definitely out of control and so far, the US and families are losing.
I’ve finally come up with this rebuttal to regional bubble denial: did your area experience a housing bubble, a mania that resulted in prices getting out of whack? If so, prices must fall.
I think this a true statement, but what a lot of people in certain areas of California are frustrated with is the pace of the declines.
In areas like Eureka/Humboldt and Thousand Oaks (my area), unless you had a lot of building in the past few years and a lot of foreclosures now, you will not see the same rate of declines that you see in the Inland Empire and East Bay, for example. You need your local market to be saturated with a huge amount of inventory in a short amount of time to accelerate the price declines.
All this means is that it will take several years for certain high-end areas (that didn’t have a lot of new construction in the past and/or lots of foreclosures currently) to decline to equilibrium prices (i.e. prices in line with incomes).
It all comes down to supply and demand - in certain areas there just isn’t enough supply and there are (unfortunately) plenty of people that see “deals” on houses and are buying at prices down only 20-25% from the peak.
When we talked about the timing issue here in 2005, many of us didn’t think it would have fallen as fast as it has. Plus, the credit environment is changing daily.
Some of you may recall the story I told about the young couple I talked with in Sedona back in mid-2005. I told the man that I thought prices would fall, but that if I was right we’d get a recession out of it. And he didn’t seem to understand what that meant. He does part time construction, and back then things were red-hot.
Sure enough, now Sedona is hurting and almost none of those guys could buy a house if prices were $60k. To me, this is a process, and where we are at any given time is less important than understanding what it is going to take to get through it. Plus, renting doesn’t bother me and I value mobility highly.
Yeah, but do you have a duck? Huh, huh?
No duck here. I guess you could always eat/sell the duck.
No one would ever buy P. Pearsey Von Peepwig because he’s too spoiled. I spoil my pets on purpose so no one else will want them. That way they’re forced to put up with me forever.
And I’m not eating him either, so there. He’s too cute for it. The kewdest little duck in the whole wide world.
“Thousand Oaks (my area), ”
tough area lots of wealth moving there from LA and surrounds?
I don’t know what kind of work there is local except Amgen ?
many who live there must commute ? Or be old like my parents and don’t want to move.
I don’t know about prices let me know when Moorpark gets back to 350K for a house because Zillow seems to be frozen with respect to Zestimate. 93021
Thousand oaks will always be too expensive for me period.
moorpark maybe not ?
right now I’ll sit the recession out in Phoenix for as long as I can. 1200 a month rent here and I don’t think I could rent an apartment in Thousand Oaks for that much ? And the pay is no better there.
2BD/2BA apartments in decent buildings in TO go for around $1,700-$1,800 per month.
Almost all of the people that live there commute to either Ventura or SF Valley for work.
Also, a lot of long-time residents that bought in the late 80’s or early 90’s and watched their homes triple in value these last few years. And virtually no new construction (even condos) for the last 20 years. And very low inventory - around 20-30 SFR’s greater than 1,400 sq ft and less than $600,000 are listed in an area (91360) with almost 15,000 housing units.
Add it all up, and it equals a very slow, slow decline in prices…..
Regarding those long-time residents who bought in the late 80’s or early 90’s: do you know a lot of these personally? Have many of these people “taken money out” of their houses through serial refinancing or HELOCs? If that is the case, is it possible that they’ve done it to such an extent that they don’t have very much equity left?
IMHO, the housing game has been like a flimsy Chinese/Walmart 3-legged stool trying to support 10 tons of of dead a$$ US Grade A
LARD. (pig or other animal fat)
The US Gov’t, local Gov’t property taxing entities, the banks/ lenders and RE agents ALL have been totally complicite in supporting the greedy a$$SES of the homedebters and FB.
(pig/lard in this case was actually their Cash Cow while alive)
When one leg finally breaks, everyone without good financial sense, or powerful friends and/or connections, from J6P to Lo Wrong Jo and those in between, are going to get GREASED in one way or another.
I hope that somebody bought plenty of that GOP recomended Clear Plastic and Duct Tape…we may need it
‘As recession ravages their assets, the rich retrench’
http://tinyurl.com/atoe8f
‘Luxury-home builders have been hit even harder than luxe retailers. A survey by the National Association of Home Builders found that sales of homes in the $250,000 to $1 million price range declined 80% last year from 2007. Sales of homes priced more than $1 million fell 70%, says Gopal Ahluwalia, vice president of research for NAHB.’
Wouldn’t this include just about every house in CA?
I can’t wait for the next season of “Million Dollar Listing”.
With prices down, I bet a lot of people are going to want to be moving into the “bu”.
Not to mention the next season of FLIPPING OUT. I think that guy is still sitting on that house he listed for $3.25 million. At the end of last season, he turned down $2.75 million. Oops.
Going to really enjoy that show coming back on as well…
“Over the past year, the Inland Empire has shed more than 38,500 jobs, bringing the unemployment rate to 10.1 percent in December. Most of these job losses were in construction and related industries. The old engine of growth in the Inland Empire, development, has been stymied.”
There’s that idiot word again, GROWTH. One goobermint slob in Florida opined that “Growth” was our biggest industry. Since when is that an industry? Oh, I know, since we don’t have anything else to offer. Like manufacturing or even tech.
The only “growth” that’s an industry is cancer and there’s plenty of it in the US right now, both spiritual and physical. Wanna see some “growth”? Watch Congress.
“Since when is that an idustry?” LOL!
Been wondering that myself. Kind of like when I’d cold call back in the 90’s and ask people what they were doing with their investments?
“Oh I have an ETrade account!” ( like we’re all supposed to be impressed )
So uh… what stocks would you say you own?
“…. Uh, ETrade.”
“We’ll never see that again,’ Griego said of the extraordinary rise in home values in this region and the rest of California.”
Sounds like exactly what I thought in the aftermath of the 1980s bubble in NYC. People had learned their lesson, and it would never happen again.
In fact, another bubble started inflating about seven years after the previous one finished deflating!
‘the aftermath of the 1980s bubble in NYC’
Two thoughts; did the current bubble start a lot sooner than most believe and what we’ve seen are parts of that? And, was it truly a bubble if prices climbed back? For instance, in many parts of Houston, prices have never returned to what they were in the 80’s, adjusted for inflation. Same for other places in the oil states.
In the mid-90’s, you could go down to City Hall and buy a “classic six” on Park Ave. if you paid the back-taxes.
But why would you? It rented for far cheaper.
Nobody in their right mind assumed that the Fed would blow the mother-of-all-bubbles a decade later.
If you’re talking financial bubble, we’re talking 1983. If you’re talking more proximate housing and stock bubbles, we’re still talking 1997-ish.
FPSS,
Being in your “right mind” wasn’t really a ‘requirement’ either. Teetering on insanity, struggling w/ reality, plain old just checked out?
You could have made the rounds at various state institutions around the nation and -still- had a hard time coming up with a handful of yes’s. Only to learn later that that particular patient says “yes” to everything. In no way to absolve ourselves from any and all guilt, but I feel better now that you’ve shared that out loud.
Mr. Big V is interviewing at a company in Houston. I asked on the forum whether or not there’s a bubble there, but no one replied. House prices shot up there alright, but it looks like incomes are high enough to justify the prices. I’m not sure of the income data I have, though.
Truthfully, I won’t even feel bad if I end up leaving CA for Houston. Everyone I’ve asked says it’s fun there, except of course for the humidity and the red ants. Whatever, I’m pretty good in the heat. Mr. Big V gets pretty ornery, though, so I guess we’ll be paying for AC and thereby contributing to more global warming. I think P. Pearsey von Peepwig will eat the ants, but then they might bite his guts, so I dunno. Comme ci, comme ca.
Which company ?
I don’t think I’m allowed to say that on the Google.
My other reply got eaten, so here’s another:
I don’t think I’m allowed to divulge that information on “the Google”.
Don’t forget the occasional hurricane as well as the monster flying la cucarachas:D
The gulf water is very nice a little ways from town. If you like water sports it can be a great area. No surfing but sailing and getting into the water without a wetsuit is a big plus.
Yeah, warm water would be awesome. I kinda hope he gets the job so I move out of Silicon Valley.
You know what, I HATE living in Silicon Valley. There is nothing pretty or romantic about silicon or valleys.
I want to live in a place called “Ocean Glow” or “Creme de la Peach”. I wanna live in a place where, everywhere you look, there are cats rolling on their backs and making Chinese eyes. A place where old people still have bumpy teeth because they haven’t been grinding them at night their whole lives.
Whoever came up with this “living in Silicon Valley” idea ought to be locked in a bathroom until he comes to his senses.
I liked living in Silicon Valley. There’s a great motorcycle ride up to Mt. Hamilton and down the back side to Livermore - 70+ miles of riding where you won’t see a soul. There are lots of secret hiking places in the Coast Range - for example, a series of caves and waterfalls off Skyline Blvd, complete with mountain goats. However, the steelhead fishing went north in the ’50s, and the surf is a bit crowded.
But the major thing is, the place is crowded and expensive. We probably could buy a place there now, but I don’t know why I would. Better to live in rain country and have a potential retirement.
V,
With all due respect, SV is a fantastic place to live in my opinion. Perfect, no. I’ve been to Houston/Galveston many times. Weather-wise it’s the armpit of the earth. I mentioned to a Houstonian that I didn’t have A/C in my house. He replied “I thought everybody had A/C”. Houston does have it’s charms though. Excellent BBQ, friendly people. The gulf coast is nice. The beaches are just OK. But if you’re into fishing it’s great. I go to South Padre Island for fishing trips with my Texas buddies. Next to Alaska it has the most mosquitoes I’ve ever seen.
If you have never been there go visit. The winter weather might trick you. You really need to experience the summers there. You’ll be sweating just from walking from your air conditioned house to your air conditioned car.
Mike
MacAttack,
I’ve driven that road from Mt. Hamilton to Livermore. Another great drive is the Old Altamont Pass Road. Niles Canyon Road is another great drive. Tunitas Creek Road off Highway 35 (Skyline Blvd) takes you all the way to Highway One, another beautiful drive.
“But the major thing is, the place is crowded and expensive.”
I prefer scenic San Luis Obispo, but it too is very expensive; no connection between housing costs and area income.
Big:
Having lived in Calif and Texas (and lots of other places), the thing that sticks out about Texas is that… many of the people are genuinely friendly. And that is a big asset.
RE: Having lived in Calif and Texas (and lots of other places), the thing that sticks out about Texas is that… many of the people are genuinely friendly. And that is a big asset.
’tis true, ‘Crate
Last fall I flew down to TX to visit a friend in Dallas.
When I went to retrieve my luggage, there was a woman perhaps 40ish, standing alone near the turnstile, all done up in her Western finery looking very exotic (to a idiot Northerner) what with her long skirt, vest, turquoise necklace and various other silver bobbles and bangles.
When she caught me rubber necking as I cruised by, she simply batted her eyelashes, flashed me a big smile, and said, “Howdy there-welcome to Texas!”
Hell, if this situation happened in Boston, I’d have been flipped the middle finger with a sneering-”Better beat it, you lecherous pervert-I’m callin’ the cops right!”
yup, had that reaction a LOT when I first moved to Fla!
Some data suggests the bubble originated in the wake of Alan Greenspan’s extraordinary stock market intervention in the wake of the 1987 crash (and the establishment of the President’s Working Group on Financial Assets shortly thereafter). My read is that real estate started “always going up” in many parts of the U.S. circa 1990 and only recently (spring 2006) began to deflate, after a 16 year bubble run.
Why Be a Nation of Mortgage Slaves?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123336541474235541.html
Looks like a bunch of HBB-ers in those online comments.
There are some houses in that $40,000 -$60,000 range or close to it in San Diego.They may not be your dream home but they are out there.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/4190-Estrella_San-Diego_CA_92105_1106252613
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/San-Diego_CA_92113_1106261343
Having lived here for a long time I do see rents dropping and prices sliding further but nothing nice in this area will come close to that.My guess is the median here settles around the high $200,000 to $300,000.
In my area near Mission Valley I see some signs of the slowing economy but things overall are pretty stable.The Military gives this area a big boost to the overall economy.
Of course, that’s only 414 square feet, 1-1, ghetto.
I think the median will get back down to $150k or so, since that’s in line with median household income. Maybe a little less if incomes continue downward. Military pays dogshit and houses people in barracks.
“Military pays dogshit and houses people in barracks.”
You would be surprised how much they get for housing and how many live off base. I live in a townhome in a higher end apartment complex. The amount of military and military contractors is very high.I would say about 50-60% of the complex is military families.
Because the median income is $100K a year?
Yes.
“If” they go back to normal lending standards and the economy holds stable. That would be an affordable price for the area.
Notice I said my “guess”.
So many factors involved.
Government intervention is the biggest thing holding it all up.Banks holding the reos off the mls is also propping things up.
They are still building apartments and townhomes near me.We really dont need anymore housing around here right now.
Here in Tucson, waiving of construction impact fees is being proposed as a way to get the economy moving again. Mind you, we already have a surplus of residential and commercial property that’s newly built and just sitting there. Yet building more of it is being offered as a solution.
I bet a refund of last years impact fees would have a faster effect on the economy.
The median household income in San Diego is about $50k/year, not $100k. Very few households are earning that much down there.
Uhhh… yeah. I know.
It was intended to be rhetorical.
I can’t help but gloat just a little - even though I know that we’re all screwed in this sinking ship - but it does take some personal strength not to send emails with links about San Francisco (”it’s different here”, “we’re landlocked”, “RE never goes down in The City”) tanking.
Truth is, we may never be able to afford to buy a house here, no matter how low it goes (2 public school teachers with 2 young kids), but the smarminess of all the folks around us throughout the dot com bubble and then the housing bubble was just TOO MUCH.
Maybe some of my artist pals will be able to move back and the folks hanging out in Dolores Park during the weekdays will be more than just a bunch of trustafarians.
Maybe it’s time to ask for a rent reduction.
Oh please, Sdguy those are hovels in the very worst areas of SD, East San Diego and Barrio Logan. I also live near Mission Valley in Serra Mesa. Home prices are still beyond ridiculous and the lunatics still out there bidding them up.
“Oh please, Sdguy those are hovels in the very worst areas of SD, East San Diego and Barrio Logan.”
I guess since I have not posted much in a while you didnt know I was joking.Homes In San Diego are WAY over priced.I rent and will continues to rent until I leave SD.
BigV ….$50,000? Yea I question the median income here too but most places I have looked put it at about $94,000.
Where? I haven’t seen that anywhere. This is from Wikipedia anyway:
They got that from the Census Bureau. It may have increased a bit over the last 9 years, but all the stats I’ve seen have shown declining, stagnant, or barely rising incomes since Bush took over the White House. Kind of hard for wages to go up when citizens of other countries are easier to employ than US citizens. I really haven’t seen anything placing median household income in San Diego anywhere near $100k/year.
Wheew, I thought you had a screw loose. That’s $144 a sq ft for the house. Did you see the size of the lot? Barely over a 1000 sq ft!!
From CNN Money in 2006:
Median family income
(per year) $59,775
I think family income is greater than household income because of family members who live elsewhere and send money back home.
Thanks for the info. I have always questioned the figures for here.The places I saw it were either government websites or elsewhere.I cant find the website I read it on last week at $94K.
Hud/FannieMae puts it at $72,000 but includes Carlsbad and San Marcos.May be part of the problem when they think it is that high.
Just found an article from 2007 putting it at $69,000.
I stand corrected. Prices here have much further to fall than I thought.Kinda like the area I am watching in AZ. Long way to go.
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/AZ-Phoenix/Ahwatukee-Foothills-people/
Zillow a few clicks in has demographic data, heres 85044 in AZ for example. You should be able to do this with San diego
I was thinking the same as I had not been on either site lately. .
Trulia and Zillow both put the household median for San Diego at $45,733.
BigV,
I think prop 13 and the retired population skews things a bit.
Expect long term deflation in these areas as jobs leave for places like Houston. Eventually, California might be cheap again.
The regional aspects of the bubbles are all different. I expect places where a lot of new housing stock can be built; they correct quickly. Near the ocean in California it will take a lot longer. No room for new houses. Have to wait for people to die, retire and out migration.
Also think the ripples through the educational system will also effect things too. Long term large technology employers may feel the area just isn’t as valuable for attracting talent.
Many places like Houston, the midwest, deep south and southwest are correcting faster. Competition with cheap new homes will do that. They are also not burdened with prop13. I support prop13 but think the inflation adjustment is just way too low.
Uh-oh! Potential housing shortage looming!
http://azbiz.com/articles/2009/01/30/construction_real_estate/doc49834bc209855606717197.txt
Well, they’re not making any more land.
They’re not making any more air, either. Quick, hyperventilate!
Our Love Affair With Malls Is on the Rocks
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/01/business/01mall.html
Problem with malls is they don’t sell anything you actually need.
Not to mention the fact that they’re hard to get in and out of. Parking can be a real bear too.
The problem with malls is that they fill me with despair about humanity.
Mall exception rule: old fashioned open-air malls like the Galleria Vittorio Emanuele II are quite nice.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galleria_Vittorio_Emanuele_II
RE: The problem with malls is that they fill me with despair about humanity.
Yup-cruise around a mall for awhile and you sure get a good demonstration of this country’s obesity epidemic.
Another piece of pie, here!
“Problem with malls is they don’t sell anything you actually need.”
+1 LMAO!
WASHINGTON – A top Republican called for more mortgage relief and additional tax cuts in President Barack Obama’s massive economic stimulus package as Democrats conceded privately they will drop items that have drawn bipartisan criticism.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., told reporters Monday that “a stimulus bill must fix the main problem first, and that’s housing.” He promised that Republicans would offer a plan to have the government step in to reduce mortgage rates to the 4 percent range, which could shore up home prices and lower housing payments for millions of Americans.
The Senate planned to begin debate on the legislation Monday and the process was likely to stretch into next week.
Schumer also said Democrats would support a GOP-backed idea to double a home buyers tax credit from $7,500 to $15,000 and make it available to all home buyers instead of those purchasing their first home.
“Schumer also said Democrats would support a GOP-backed idea to double a home buyers tax credit from $7,500 to $15,000 and make it available to all home buyers instead of those purchasing their first home.”
SWEET!!! I may be buying and dumping sooner than previously planned.
You have to stay at least 3 years before selling and there are income phase-outs:
To be eligible, buyers cannot have owned a home for the past three years, and the new home has to be used as a primary residence. The credit phases out as income rises above $75,000 for singles and $150,000 for couples, and disappears entirely at $95,000 and $170,000, respectively.
And you have to buy before 8/30/09……
“To be eligible, buyers cannot have owned a home for the past three years, and the new home has to be used as a primary residence. The credit phases out as income rises above $75,000 for singles and $150,000 for couples, and disappears entirely at $95,000 and $170,000, respectively.”
Here in CA, hardly anyone would qualify for the credit AND qualify to purchase a home, not at those income limits.
Ben!!!! Tell Lisa to stop copying me……..!!!!!!
bummer. I don’t meet the “can’t have owned for the last 3 years” clause.
Jerks!
Not to worry their is talk about making it available to anyone even previous owners. Seems they should increase that income phase out if they want those high priced homes to fall in value.
The question is, are the Republicans really this naive (thinking that propping up house prices will solve our problem), or are they just trying to buy votes?
If you prop up home prices, you stop the losses at the financial institutions….those future losses are scaring the hell out of those in Washington, DC……….
You can not prop up house prices.
Slowing the rate of decline simply gives the builders more time to add more inventory, but eventually they will manage to drive prices way under the cost of construction.
You can not hold a price above the supply and demand curve. Any attempt to just increases the glut of supply and makes the bottom all the lower when it eventually does arrive.
If you give government subsidized low interest rate mortgages (which they are talking about) people will come out in droves to buy. That will boost demand.
Americans care about the payment….not the price…….
“The question is, are the Republicans really this naive (thinking that propping up house prices will solve our problem), or are they just trying to buy votes?”
Probably both.
CRIMMINY!!!
I thought Barack had made this perfectly clear already. The problem is NOT the housing market. It’s the job market. People will be much better off when housing finally becomes affordable again, but they are going to need to get their jobs back from Chindexico first.
BEIJING – The global economic crisis has taken hold deep in China’s impoverished countryside, as millions of rural migrants are laid off from factory jobs and left to scratch a living from tiny landholdings — creating unsettling prospects for a government anxious to avoid social unrest.
With demand for Chinese toy, shoe and electronics exports evaporating overseas, as many as 26 million of China’s estimated 130 million migrant workers are now unemployed, the government announced Monday. A day earlier, Beijing warned of “possibly the toughest year” this decade and called for development of rural areas to offset the economic fallout.
I really don’t see China letting it’s currency rise or helping with trade deals. There has been no decoupling
Decoupling was never a serious threat, IMO.
4.5 MM unemployed US citizens.
130 MM unemployed Chinese citizens.
Who do you think will have bloodier riots?
The US. The US has more guns in the hands of potential protesters.
IAT
“I can’t help but gloat just a little - even though I know that we’re all screwed in this sinking ship - but it does take some personal strength not to send emails ”
I hear you.
About 2 years ago my dad sent an email…. you know, those things that go around the net about a guy that is woken by his alarm clock (made in Korea), gets dressed (in clothes made in indonesia) and puts on his shoes( made in…).
I responded with an “it is so much worse than that”, where I talked about trade deficits, flow of debt, household debt explosion, incomes not keeping up with real inflation, etc. How we were in for “something big”.
My sisters and a brother in-law responded with comments like, “not this again” and such.
It didn’t go far, but 18 months ago I was getting marreid and all were in town. We had a long conversation the day before. One (an owner of many “income properties” in Oceanside) was sure house prices would not fall. Another was convinced stocks were fine because there was just too much money in 401(k)s that couldn’t be pulled out. Another tried to convince me that the consumers were just fine and all this “negative savings rate” stuff was fiction since new savings mechanisms like 401(k) don’t count.
One says, “You were wrong on tech stocks in 2000, and you are wrong on this too.”
Most of the comments I let go, but this last one I had to respond? So NASDAQ didn’t fall 75+%? I was 6 months early, but I was right.
He did have to admit I was right on the .com stocks…. But he added I was still wrong on this one.
It is SOOOOOO hard not to send an email asking if I’m still wrong.
Resist. They know. And it’s so much cooler to let it be unsaid.
On the other hand 2, TWO, people in my immediate family, the same family that did the usual routine (no more land, you’re throwing money away, Vancouver is the best, Olympics, New York, London, blah, blah) when I raised my little hand is now ADVISING me in cool tones, not to buy in 2009. Really, thanks for the spectacular advice. I would actually be better off buying now than last year when they thought it was still a hot idea. Some properties are down as much as 20% and interest rates are lower (although it is still insanely overpriced).
“Oh, Ella, we all knew it would come down at some point, it’s a long-term investment, it’s just US subprime, loss of confidence, meep meepity meep. Why no, I haven’t read a book or talked to anyone but my banker, realtor and friends, why do you ask?”
OK, dude, I changed my mind. Please hire a skywriter to ask if you’re wrong and then tell me what happened. In gory detail.
Send the e-mail! That’s what life is all about, Darrell. If you can’t stick it to the wrongsters, then why live? And get yourself an ice cream while you’re at it.
No, no… Not going to do it.
Come on Darrell do it, do it, do it. Don’t listen to angel on your right shoulder, listen to the devil on your left shoulder.
Monthly report on Palmdale 93552.
12 month trendline for NODs has nosed over after maxing out at 270/month. This number is still 2.5Xsales for the zip. The next few months will tell if the decline in NODs is due to moratoriums and such, or if the fire is just burning itself out for lack of fuel.
Median asking is down to 200K for a 4+3 or better, from 335K at the bubbles peak. Median sales price for all homes is down to 150K in December from 377K at the peak 23 months earlier in January of ‘07. That’s an average decline of almost $9900/month. That’s a lot of smackers for holding onto an alligator than one “just won’t give away”!
PPSF is down 40% YOY to $87/sqft. Both the chart of monthly unit sales and YOY price declines seem to have found a plateau of sorts, the former bouncing off of 100 as a limit upward and the other bouncing off of 50% to the downside.
On a personal note, squatting goes well, with no NOD as yet in our 4th month (AFAIK) with no payment to the bank. We have now found 3 or 4 houses that meet our criteria, and I’m sure there will be more. Wifey is pretty comfortable with our situation living in a very nice house for $0 in monthly rent, so some of the pressure to buy has backed off.
Somewhat off topic: There also seem to be a disproportionate number of dental offices for sale in this area, not at all the case three or four years ago.
“There also seem to be a disproportionate number of dental offices for sale in this area, not at all the case three or four years ago.”
Agreed. The $h!t is really going to hit the fan when the state and local governments pull the plug on dental and vision benefits.
Would this be problematic?
downtown san diego and it just sold:
350 W. Ash #1205
San Diego, Ca 92101
MLS #080068389
Beds/Baths: 1 / 2
Square Feet: 1,199 sf
PPSF: $450
Sales History
Date Price Held Return Annual
01/30/2009 $540,000 1y 9m -65% -44%
04/17/2007 $1,550,000 n/a - -
WHO IN THE WORLD WOULD PAY $540,000.00 FOR A PIGGLING ONE-BEDROOM CONDOMINIUM IN LOUD-ASS DOWNTOWN SD? THAT’S TOO MUCH MONEY. NOT DONE YET.
Trulia shows………
Sales history
September 29, 2008 $820,580
April 17, 2007 $1,550,000
Zillow shows
Last sale and tax info
Sold 09/29/2008:
$820,580 *
2008 Property Tax:
$11,221
Werent we talking earlier today about San Diego having a long way to go? O)
Does this mean we are on to knife catcher part deux? In the end, this place will go for about $350K. Another 30% drop anyone?
Ummm… Yeah??? Why would anyone pay $540K for a 1200 sqft, 1 bedroom.
Knife catcher!!!
Let me know if this shows up.
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-beach31-2008dec31,0,7928541.story
I grew up here and we sold in 05. I think the ocean finally killed the rats!
Foreclosure’s Final Act
Area Homeowners’ Fears Unfold In High-Stakes Courtroom Dramas
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/30/AR2009013004018_pf.html
“Home prices in Beverly Hills, Santa Monica and Malibu — which continued to soar well into 2008 — finally tanked at the end of the year, losing between 26% and 30% of their value in just a few months, the latest data show.”
Paging LA Investor Girl… is it still different in the wealthy parts of LA?
“Paging LA Investor Girl… is it still different in the wealthy parts of LA?”
LOL!
A few for sale signs among the snow in London:
http://tinyurl.com/br27ky