February 3, 2009

Affordability Is Its Own Driving Force

The News Press reports from Florida. “Duane Clairmore’s divorce, along with his sagging home value, has put him in a bind. The value of the two-bedroom, two-bath house in south Fort Myers is teetering close to what he owes on it. With real estate fees and closing costs, Clairmore may end up losing the $75,000 down payment he put up in 2005 and walking away without a house or money for a future residence. ‘I’ve had three lookers in the last year,’ he said.”

“‘I don’t see people fighting over homes like they used to - if you have to sell a house or if you’re going through a divorce, you have to accept reality,’ said Brett Ellis, real estate agent in Fort Myers. ‘The market doesn’t care what your situation is. We tell them what it’s worth and they have an awakening,” he said. “Not only is it not worth fighting over, but (they) owe $100,000 on it and (their) credit is mashed. It is one less thing to fight about.’”

“‘The house is no longer considered an asset,’ said Fort Myers family law mediator and matrimonial attorney Robert Schwartz. “It’s considered a liability in many situations - the house has become a white elephant; it’s become a burden.’”

“Clairmore waits for house sales to rise and prices to go up so he can move on with his life. ‘I could stay here until the market turns around,’ he said. ‘We’re kind of stuck.’”

“Commercial building in Lee County is grinding almost to a halt as existing projects finish up and cash-strapped developers don’t start new ones, according to statistics released Monday. And experts say it’s only going to get worse. Meanwhile, residential work also is slow with Cape Coral reporting only seven single-family home permits pulled in January, matching the previous record low of September 2008.”

“In the unincorporated county, a record low of 13 single-family permits were pulled. That was a new low, beating the old one of 14 set in November 2008. No single-family permits were recorded in Fort Myers Beach or Sanibel. ‘I’m pretty much an optimist,’ said commercial real estate broker Robert Wagner. ‘If you tell me the sky’s going to fall, I’ll say it’s going to miss me. But right now the arteries have been cut and there’s blood gushing everywhere. It’s got to heal itself and there’s nothing to do about it. Nature’s got to run its course.’”

The Sun Sentinel. “Diela Narrabe may be forced to leave her Deerfield Beach condo next month. Narrabe is one of 28 unit owners — out of 168 — in the Deerfield Palms condo association who still pay their monthly maintenance fees, which are used to pay the community’s water bill.”

“Residents owe the city $90,000. If they don’t pay $12,929 by the first week of March, the city is threatening to turn off the water. Because the community has master meters rather than individual unit gauges, the city can’t separate owners who are current on their bills from delinquent customers. If the water goes away, so will Narrabe…who says she could not afford both her mortgage and rent on another place.”

“‘I don’t know what to do,’ she said. ‘If they evict us, that’s my big problem. If I was by myself, that’s another thing. But my two little daughters? We can’t live without water.’”

The Palm Beach Post. “Stuart developer Jim Ladd has sold the remaining condos at his Outrigger Harbour development in Jensen Beach - for about half the original asking price on the never-lived-in luxury units. In January, Ladd bought one of the units at the project, and one of his partners in the development bought two. Ladd said he’s thinking about living there. Or he might just hold it as an investment.”

“”The market is the market,’ Ladd said last week. ‘We certainly didn’t meet our expectations.’”

The Herald Tribune. “Lennar Corp. has filed a major lawsuit against a lengthy list of manufacturers, suppliers and installers whose products or services were used by the company in the construction of its homes carrying Chinese drywall. Gases being emitted from the Chinese-made drywall have been tied to corrosion eating away at the guts of people’s homes.”

“Lennar has said it so far has identified at least 80 Southwest Florida homes that have defective Chinese drywall, and the company is investigating another 40. At least two Lennar homes in Miami-Dade also are known to be affected. A Herald-Tribune analysis of shipping records found that the amount of Chinese-manufactured drywall imported into the United States since 2006 was potentially enough to build more than 60,000 homes nationwide. Shipments landing at Florida ports alone contained enough material to build 36,000 homes.”

The St Petersburg Times. “Craig Beggins runs the largest Century 21 real estate agency in north-central Florida. He’s absorbed a number of hard lessons. He recently shared some of those with the Times. Q: What’s the word on the home sales front these days?”

“A: I don’t want to sound like one of those real estate brokers desperate to stir up sales. But we are selling stuff, and the glut of inventory homes is receding…Houses that sold for $250,000 are going for $130,000. Everyone talked about a perfect storm. Right now there’s a perfect calm: low interest rates, a tremendous supply and low prices. If now’s not the time to buy, when is it going to be?”

“Q: What’s a real estate agent got to know these days? A: The first thing you need is patience. Buyers are afraid to buy. Every seller thinks his house is worth more than it is. I met with every agent. Everybody had a ton of listings. I said, ‘How many do you think will sell?’ They said, ‘30 percent maybe.’ I said, ‘Guys, let’s stop it.’ We can’t take such listings when 70 percent don’t sell. I actually applaud my agents who don’t take overpriced listings.”

“Q: When will the market make a full recovery? A: I’m telling everyone three to five years from now. We are going to have more foreclosures on the market, which will suppress price increases. All the mortgage resets haven’t happened yet. If employment keeps going down, it’s going to proliferate into something bad for real estate.”

The Miami Herald. “A sign of the tough economic times was on display Monday morning at the Miami government administration building on Southwest Second Avenue. More than 1,000 people were standing in line to obtain job applications for just 35 positions as firefighters.”

“On Monday morning, canvas tents filled the large lawn beside the building. Every few feet, there was an empty cooler or box of pizza. The line of men and women stretched around the building. Expecting a long line, Lester Easley, Cesar Lopez and others camped out in front of the building over the weekend, braving a three-day cold front and Sunday night rain.”

“Easley…said city officials should have been better prepared to manage the crowd that appeared. Several hundred people had unfairly pushed their way ahead of them Monday morning, according to paramedic Jose Janvion. ‘I slept here, damn it,’ he said. ‘People just got here at 8 a.m. and skipped us.”’

The LA Times. “Reporting from Cape Coral, Fla. — Jim Burch is a proud man from a proud town. ‘It breaks my heart to say we need help,’ he says. But when the Florida housing market collapsed, this sprawling city on Florida’s southwest coast tumbled with it. Unemployment has risen to over 10%. A nice home near the water goes for just over $100,000 — 70% less than a few years ago. On Friday, the county government laid off 19 workers because money is no longer flowing in from construction permits.”

The Associated Press. “They started lining up at the ‘Faith Cafe’ before lunchtime — the unemployed and the homeless, the hungry and the hopeless. They were just two miles from Raymond James Stadium, where workers were putting the finishing touches on the site of America’s biggest party, the Super Bowl.”

“Come nightfall, they’ll spread out in search of a park bench or a patch of grass, some place to sleep away another lost day. This week they’ve tried to make their voices heard in a city throwing a big party they’re not invited to, complete with stretch limousines, steak-and-lobster dinners, high-rise hotel suites and a $1,000-a ticket football game on Sunday.”

“‘It only means they’re sending a bunch of people down here on vacation and giving tax breaks to come down here and do business,’ said 53-year-old David Hall, who works in construction but has been out of a job since his car was impounded a couple of weeks ago. ‘It’s rough out there,’ said Hall, who said he once owned a home but now lives in a pop-up camper. ‘I’ve never seen it this bad.’”

From TC Palm. “Now that the median price of a single-family home in Martin and St. Lucie counties has dropped 50 percent from the market peak, there’s a growing consensus that prices have finished falling.”

“‘I can’t guarantee you that it’s at the bottom. But it’s so close that I don’t think it even matters any more,’ said Ed Farah of Better Homes & Gardens Real Estate Laviano & Associates in Port St. Lucie. ‘I don’t know how people can go wrong when they’re buying a 2,100-square-foot home that’s 3 years old, in immaculate condition, for $50 a square foot.’”

“In Port St. Lucie, though, the emerging evidence suggests the housing market finally has found a floor. Area Realtors say they’re seeing multiple offers for foreclosed homes, so long as the houses are in good condition and the lender posts a rock-bottom listing price. ‘Everybody wants a steal. They don’t want a deal; they want a steal,’ said Craig Wallengren of All Florida GMAC Real Estate in Port St. Lucie.”

The Naples News. “Foreclosures are falling. In January, new filings decreased to 2,074, down from 2,201 in December in Lee County. Filings dropped to 1,647 in November before spiking back up again. New filings bounced up and down last year, hitting a record of 2,603 in October. ‘It’s one of those bell curves that is trying to go down,’ said Charlie Green, the county’s Clerk of Courts.”

“Jeff Tumbarello, the association’s director, said he’s not ready to call the drop last month a trend. He said too many banks aren’t taking action on foreclosures so it’s hard to know how many of them are still out there. ‘Basically, in my opinion, you have a lot of institutions that are just froze up and in survival mode and they are just doing as little as they can,’ Tumbarello said.”

“He said a recent review of the balance sheets of the top four banks was ‘quite scary,’ based on what is shown as assets, particularly in this market. Lenders on average are losing 70 percent on the principal balance loaned on each foreclosure sold.”

“In the report, Tumbarello noted there have been fewer filings by condominium associations, which he believes is due to the lack of money and ability to do anything with the property. With prices continuing to fall, sales in Lee County were up 100 percent in January, over the same month last year, Tumbarello said. The inventory of homes has fallen by nearly 1,000 in the last 60 days.”

“‘Affordability is its own driving force — the better it gets, the better it gets,’ he said.”




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168 Comments »

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2009-02-03 08:30:33

‘If you tell me the sky’s going to fall, I’ll say it’s going to miss me. But right now the arteries have been cut and there’s blood gushing everywhere. It’s got to heal itself and there’s nothing to do about it. Nature’s got to run its course.’

Wow, all those metaphors in one paragraph!

Comment by pressboardbox
2009-02-03 08:48:35

WASHINGTON (AP) — The National Association of Realtors says pending U.S. home sales rebounded in December, as buyers snapped up properties at deep discounts, especially in the South and Midwest…

-Okay, THEY are snapping up homes again. Look out.

Comment by Michael Fink
2009-02-03 08:55:53

Please let this phrase die at the end of the housing bubble. I hate that term “Snapping up houses”. It’s just so obnixious and really, the only reason to use it is to instill urgency in a completely glutted market. The investors are “snapping up” everything in sight? Good, call me in 3 years then when they are all deeply underwater and selling distressed properties. Maybe then I’ll “snap” something up.

Ugh.

Comment by wmbz
2009-02-03 09:17:08

It is a very annoying statement, but then the NAR has never been known for writing clever lines.

The National Association of Realtors says pending U.S. home sales rebounded in December, as buyers snapped up properties at deep discounts, especially in the South and Midwest.

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Comment by Key Lime Toast
2009-02-03 13:44:29

Yes, ’scooped up’ is more appropriate.

You know.. ’scooped up’.. like a turd.

 
Comment by mybleachhouse
2009-02-03 14:09:25

How about instead of “snapping up homes” they say “bleeding hands from all the knives”.

 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-02-03 10:37:35

‘Please let this phrase die at the end of the housing bubble. I hate that term “Snapping up houses”.’

Me too. It sounds goggle-eyed and guppy-like. I am also really sick of hearing ‘tip of the iceberg’ and ‘perfect storm’.
As many lovely and exciting words as there are in the world, all of them freely available for use at no extra cost, WHY do idjits incessantly spout the SAME ones over and over again?

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Comment by Not Mssing It
2009-02-03 12:25:28

Welcome to the NAR cliché festival.

 
Comment by palmetto
2009-02-03 13:56:04

At the end of the day…

 
Comment by DennisN
2009-02-03 23:52:36

It was a dark and stormy night. The cloudy miasma of a deadly mortgage loomed over the FB.

 
 
Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2009-02-03 13:00:02

I’ve heard people are snapping up guns.

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Comment by Left LA
2009-02-03 15:44:36

Savvy investors snap up for instant equity.

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Comment by SaladSD
2009-02-03 15:51:51

How about “snatching”?

 
 
 
Comment by Bad Andy
2009-02-03 08:57:00

Pending home sales are not necessarily closed home sales. I’ve watched quite a few deals just fall apart in recent weeks.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-02-03 09:11:27

I’ve seen the same thing happening in Tucson since ‘07.

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Comment by Bad Andy
2009-02-03 09:15:21

I’ve seen some fall apart since credit started getting tough in ‘07 but it’s been really insane here since the end of November. Banks are turning away 20% down in some cases.

 
Comment by arizonadude
2009-02-03 09:40:16

How about that chinese drywall?Don’t they say that cheaper is not necessarily the better deal?I guess they can sue the chinese and see how far they get.I wonder if they will execute the drywall guys in china???

 
 
Comment by Tim
2009-02-03 10:14:41

Good point. I often go to open houses to follow the market. Whenever I use a real number on the sign-in sheet, I often get a call a few days later that goes something like this: “Great news there were several interested buyers and a contract was entered into, but the financing fell through. The sellers are willing to deal with a qualified buyer because they just want out at this point. It’s really a great opportunity!”

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-02-03 11:40:43

I’m so glad I have VoIP. I can archive such BS, remix it, and have some real fun.

 
 
Comment by Ann
2009-02-03 13:45:18

I agree with that statement pending sales are not closed sales..I have seen the same house go under contract 3,4,5 times and still no closing…

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Comment by mikey
2009-02-03 10:14:12

Not even the SNAPPING turtles…get out of this Ponzi Pond alive :)

 
Comment by mikey
2009-02-03 11:58:12
Comment by Left LA
2009-02-03 15:47:44

That deal has definitely gone sideways. It is nearly upside-down!

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Comment by desertdweller
2009-02-03 16:22:18

Maybe it didn’t close cause it was ’sideways’
financially and pictorially?

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Comment by Professor Bear
2009-02-03 16:15:04

Snapping up homes and driving the comp prices towards $0 in the process…

 
 
Comment by ella
2009-02-03 09:31:23

“But right now the arteries have been cut and there’s blood gushing everywhere. It’s got to heal itself and there’s nothing to do about it. Nature’s got to run its course.’”

A suicidal/death motif? Whoa. Also, glad this guy went into realty and not medicine. If a doctor took this attitude, the patient would…die. Not that I disagree that nature has to run it’s course, but that metaphor!

“Snapping up” is my least favouirite bubble term, too.

 
Comment by james
2009-02-03 10:59:14

Uh. If the arteries are cut you have to apply a tourniqit or bleed to death.

Death is part of nature too.

Comment by denquiry
2009-02-03 15:08:06

Death is part of nature too.
——————————————————————————-
failure and success is the free market is the business plan we commoners have to deal with. privatize the profits and socialize the costs is wall street’s business plan.

 
 
 
Comment by Tim
2009-02-03 08:45:19

“I don’t want to sound like one of those real estate brokers desperate to stir up sales. . . . but right now there’s a perfect calm: low interest rates, a tremendous supply and low prices. If now’s not the time to buy, when is it going to be?”

In tough times, you have to do things you don’t want to. I have heard the biggest recession in decades called many things, but the “perfect calm”?

Comment by Bad Andy
2009-02-03 08:55:19

Sure…why not the perfect calm?

I would have told you that the market was nearing bottom just 1 year ago had the prices dropped to where they are today. Unfortunately there is still far too much inventory and far too many foreclosures yet to hit the market. Throw in unemployment and underemployment and now you see that the market won’t find a bottom until it over-corrects and we see prices unseen since the late 1980’s.

Comment by Muir
2009-02-03 09:31:46

Well Andy, guess neither of us then agrees with these statements:

“Now that the median price of a single-family home in Martin and St. Lucie counties has dropped 50 percent from the market peak, there’s a growing consensus that prices have finished falling.”

and

“‘I can’t guarantee you that it’s at the bottom. But it’s so close that I don’t think it even matters any more,’ I don’t know how people can go wrong when they’re buying a 2,100-square-foot home that’s 3 years old, in immaculate condition, for $50 a square foot.’”

Comment by Bad Andy
2009-02-03 09:51:32

Very much disagree with those statements. I can’t stand people still trying to call a bottom. These fools also told us in 2007 and 2008 that we were near the bottom. Now prices continue to slide and will continue to do so.

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Comment by exeter
2009-02-03 14:45:00

Bingo Andy.

I should remind everyone here of Pinnochio Lereahs “soft landing” forecast.

The lying pukes will say any airy-fairy, unquantitative, unverfiable, numberless BS to stoke a sense of urgency.

 
 
Comment by not a gator
2009-02-03 16:10:26

Port St Lucie 50% off peak is not a deal, b/c there was a lot of fraud in that market (remember the reports?).

Also, factor in employment… NOT bullish on Port St Lucie!

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Comment by Moman
2009-02-04 09:45:45

In Martin and St. Lucie counties, where the only fungible employment is the graveyard shift at the 7-11, $10/square foot for an energy-sucking pieces of garbage they build there is too much.

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Comment by Chip
2009-02-03 18:53:49

I agree with Andy. In the early days of Ben’s blog, I believed prices would revert to those of 1998. Now, because of the amount of unemployment and government meddling we face, I think it will go farther. In Florida, that does not mean a drastic further drop, though. A property I bought in 1987 for $125,000 was worth only about $135,000 in 1998. Whatever, I’ll settle for 1998 prices and jump back in early at that level, rather than wait for the government to destroy the money I worked so hard to save.

 
 
Comment by SDGreg
2009-02-03 09:42:48

Just like the calm in the eye of a hurricane. The next round of price destruction is arriving driven by surging unemployment and more loan resets. Snapping up anything in the eye of a hurricane is something apparently on a real estate broker would do.

Comment by Neil
2009-02-03 10:27:41

lol

Good point.

There is no meaningful bottom in 2009. None. Nowhere. Not even cash flow units. There is simply too much inventory coming down the pipeline. How long will the anxious knife catchers go out and buy non-cash flowing properties?

With what I’m seeing in rents… properties that would have cashed flowed when the offer was made will not find a renter to cash flow by the time of closing. Things are happening far too fast.

There is too much shadow inventory waiting to be processed. Too many poseurs living beyound their means. My newest concern is what happens to healthcare jobs are a significant fraction of the population losses their insurance?

I too would have started to predict a bottom at today’s prices, but that was before I truly understood how aweful the deflationary forces were going to be.

Got Popcorn?
Neil

Comment by not a gator
2009-02-03 16:13:26

So true, Neil. Rent definitely a moving target this year–bwahahahaha.

Healthcare is the next round of job losses, for sure.

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Comment by 45north
2009-02-03 17:59:45

With what I’m seeing in rents… properties that would have cashed flowed when the offer was made will not find a renter to cash flow by the time of closing. Things are happening far too fast.

I’ve read your stuff for years Neil. You were right.

God bless America!

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Comment by Chip
2009-02-03 19:01:34

Here in Central Florida, I’ve seen rents drop 20% in the past 12 months. Was not expecting that. Shadow inventory is screwing the pros.

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-02-03 11:41:54

Yeah, and the hurricane is named Katrina.

 
 
Comment by Pondering the Mess
2009-02-03 10:30:03

Low prices?!

In what friggin’ reality are prices LOW?!!?

Here in Maryland, the only “affordable” houses based upon incomes are old, gutted messes in mediocre suburbs, or run-down junk in Baltimorgue. That’s it, barring houses 50+ miles from any place with jobs (far western Maryland and places on the Eastern Shore.) Houses worth buying near jobs are still listed at idiotic “wishing prices” that typically start at 4 to 5x the median househole income of the area.

Comment by Watching and Waiting
2009-02-03 12:17:39

Yup, Pondering, you called it. I am still seeing 1200 sf 3BR townhouses in the $300s when their owners bought them for $125 in the late 1990s. I guess we’re supposed to leap because those same townhouses are now in the low $300s instead of the upper $300s.

Don’t know about you, but I’ll wait.

Comment by Jen
2009-02-03 12:58:28

Yeah - sick of hearing about low prices when they definitely haven’t hit Maryland yet. Prices are barely down 10%.

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Comment by Shelby
2009-02-03 12:57:49

Tons of FB Washington DC sellers waiting in the wings for the “Spring Market” (yawn, scratch, fart…)

I’ll be around mid-August to scoop up one that “didn’t sell” in the Spring Market

Me thinks there will be TONS to choose from

Not too many people can afford 650K, even in this part of the Country (anymore..)

Comment by NOVAwatcher
2009-02-04 06:30:36

Yep, looked a rental in Vienna, VA. Owner was moving out of state, and decided to rent their house until the “market bounced back”. Frankly, their rent was about 25% too high. Not to mention that the place was kinda crappy.

Too many places bought in 2002 for $380-$400k and asking $625-650k. I guess it’s better than a few years ago, when they would have sold for $750k, but jeesh guys, your houses have been on the market for six+ months. Here’s a clue: your house didn’t appreciate by 50% in 6 years.

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Comment by hunkydory
2009-02-03 14:06:51

I think he meant to say “perfect clam”.

Comment by not a gator
2009-02-03 16:14:59

perfect sham

 
 
Comment by rms
2009-02-03 19:30:17

“In tough times, you have to do things you don’t want to. I have heard the biggest recession in decades called many things, but the “perfect calm”?”

How about, Dead Calm? Naval officer Sam Neil is trapped in sinking ship’s cabin with several cadavers and rising water up to his chin while his wife, Nicole Kidman, is being raped by Billy Zane, a crazed lunatic.

 
 
Comment by DennisN
2009-02-03 08:46:36

If they don’t pay $12,929 by the first week of March, the city is threatening to turn off the water. Because the community has master meters rather than individual unit gauges, the city can’t separate owners who are current on their bills from delinquent customers.

I’m curious about this. How difficult would it be to install individual water meters? Presumable each unit has a shut-off valve so maintenance can be performed on a unit’s plumbing without shutting off the water to the entire complex. How difficult would it be to put a meter in series right before or after the shut-off valve?

Shuting off the water to the entire complex would reduce its value to scrap. Wouldn’t spending $500 per unit to install meters be a cheap pallative measure?

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-02-03 08:58:32

My water meter isn’t on my property, but my shutoff valve is. (I had it installed shortly after I moved in.) Installing a meter at the valve wouldn’t be difficult to do. Plus, if our local water company moves to a GPS-based meter reading system, the valve box is clear of all obstructions that would prevent a proper reading.

 
Comment by Pondering the Mess
2009-02-03 10:35:08

I’m convinced the goal of such “communities” was to let people free-load off the productive people - hey, our whole monetary system is based on that idea (inflate, inflate, INFLATE!) so why not run the water system the same way?

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-02-03 10:57:02

I doubt it.

Back in the 70’s it was very common to build an apartment conmplex with a single meter. Much cheaper than multi-units.

When these units flipped to condos, there was “no reason” to have the expense of installing separate meters. What could possibly be wrong with paying your water bill through the condo association?

 
 
Comment by climber
2009-02-03 11:18:17

“Because the community has master meters rather than individual unit gauges, the city can’t separate owners who are current on their bills from delinquent customers.”

They don’t require a meter to see whose paid their income tax, sales tax, property tax etc. I don’t see how they can fail to think of a way to figure out who the dead beats are. Then they can use the court system to reach some kind of resolution just like anyone else would. Cities are lazy and immoral, they don’t mind punishing the innocent if it saves them a buck or two.

Comment by Pete
2009-02-03 12:35:28

Suing would be the easy part. Collecting on the judgment would be a different matter altogether. You’d have to get in a long line of creditors.

Comment by not a gator
2009-02-03 16:16:38

they don’t need to sue to shut service off

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Comment by 45north
2009-02-03 18:05:54

they don’t need to sue to shut service off

pretty much sums it up

 
 
 
 
Comment by pos
2009-02-03 19:42:14

The total bill was $90,000 for 28 units? (out of 160?)

Lets say that they have not paid the water bill for the past 12 months. That would be about $270 / month for water. It would be cheaper to water a golf course in the Pheonix desert than to pay a toilet and shower bill in Florida.

 
 
Comment by Muir
2009-02-03 08:58:11

After reading the articles, I can say this: it’s actually much worse than what is written.
Oh, don’t get me wrong, I love it here :-)
I’m just talking about the housing market.

Comment by Muir
2009-02-03 11:15:57

For a real feeling of how bad it really is, see dimedropped post in bits.
Now that IS the reality.
Not what these newspapers write.

Comment by 45north
2009-02-03 18:16:32

from dimedropped:
1100 sf condominiums are now at $40,000 in some areas of Orlando. These same units sold for $342,900 3-4 years ago. There are so many dynamics working in this market that I am unable to assess all of them. Each time I think I have a handle on the market something else pops up I had not thought about.

Comment by pos
2009-02-03 19:57:22

I know someone who knows someone in Orlando that mailed in the keys of his house to the morgage lender. The lender (Countrywide) offered to postpone the morgage payments and interest for 1 year if the owner would pay the property tax and maintenance. He calculated that the rent he could get would not cover the cost of the property tax. His property tax was $14,000/year and the rent he could get was about $1,000/month. (Florida must have the highest property tax, his house was valued at $350,000). He declined the offer.

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Comment by Michael Fink
2009-02-03 08:58:21

“Clairmore waits for house sales to rise and prices to go up so he can move on with his life. ‘I could stay here until the market turns around,’ he said. ‘We’re kind of stuck.’”

Another one “waiting it out”. When and what do we have to say to them to make them realize that there is NO waiting it out. Unless you want to be there for the next 20 years, you’ll never see the value that you did 2 years ago. And, if you do hold for 20 years, the money you get will be so devalued as to make it a losing proposition. If you can sell, do it. If you’re deeply underwater, walk away. It’s not that hard.

But the market it’s going to “turn around”. It’s just going to stop going down at some point; and, once that happens, it will just drag along at 2-3% per year. It will take decades to “turn around” to what these people are thinking.

Comment by Bad Andy
2009-02-03 09:01:38

Good point. Florida has already seen a cycle like this. 1920’s housing prices weren’t seen again in real dollars until the 1950’s and when adjusted for inflation those prices weren’t seen again until the bubble of 2002 to 2006.

Comment by ella
2009-02-03 09:35:13

When were they seen again in nominal dollars. I think that’s what most people actually look at (not saying they should, though)?

Comment by Michael Fink
2009-02-03 09:49:28

I think that in nominal dollars it was 1950 before they “rebounded”. It was 2002-06 before they came back when adjusting for inflation. Not to put words in your mouth Andy, but, IIRC, I’d read those statistics somewhere once before. So it took about 20-30 years (which is about what I expect this time) before they again hit the nominal peak set in the 20s.

That is why, IMHO, almost everyone who bought from 2004-2007 should probably (if making just a monetary decision) walk away. They just don’t realize that what they have done will damage them financially for the rest of their lives. Even if it does rebound in 25 years (back to where they bought) and they then sell it for what they paid for it, they’ve lost SO much money it’s just sickening.

Say they paid 500K in 05.
Sell it for 500K in ‘25.

They would have paid about 1M on the MTG (interest, etc). 200K in taxes (assuming they don’t go up much). 50-100K in insurance.

Let’s call it (all told), 1.25M dollars invested in the house. They sell it for 500K. How many middle class people do you know that can absorb a 3/4 million dollar loss? That’s the thing that these people just aren’t thinking through. Now let’s look at the “walk away” situation:

Buy 500K in 05.
Walk in 09.
Rebuy at 250K in ‘12.
Sell for 500K in ‘25.

Now your looking at 500K in MTG, 100K in taxes, 50-100K in insurance. Again, let’s round here and call it 700K all told.

By walking and re-buying, they would save ~500K. That’s 1/2 a million dollars saved. What person in his/her right mind wouldn’t do this?

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Comment by Bad Andy
2009-02-03 09:59:10

Yes, you have my intent clearly.

As far as real dollars go, I bought for what houses in my neighborhood were selling for pre-bubble in 2006. My couldn’t lose proposition has turned into a $75,000 loss thus far and still going. As the banks race to lower their prices below the lowest in the neighborhood it seems that I could see losses of over $100,000. Forget the interest, taxes, and insurance…$100,000 real dollars! As rents continue to spiral downward it becomes appealing to walk away.

 
Comment by james
2009-02-03 11:03:04

Dang Andy, I thought we got through to you in time.

Florida has so many wide open inland areas. Once your off the coast and away from the lakes its one big giant buildable area.

So many places will go to zero value there.

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2009-02-03 11:06:12

No James, most here tried to warn me. It fell on deaf ears as home prices were well over $350K at one point in my neighborhood. Now you can come in and buy in the $120’s and not even have to do a whole lot of work. Don’t worry, sub $100’s will get you a shack and soon will likely get you a reasonable home as banks try to dump their inventory.

 
Comment by Chip
2009-02-03 19:07:37

Hate to “pile on” relative to Andy’s bad fortunes, but that is what I’m seeing here in Florida, too - dizzyingly fast price drops. For a while it was just the short sales, but now savvier sellers are cutting and running.

Now, if this reality-check would just spread to Georgia, so I can relocate…

 
 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-02-03 09:13:12

“Clairmore waits for house sales to rise and prices to go up so he can move on with his life. ‘I could stay here until the market turns around,’ he said. ‘We’re kind of stuck.’”

“it will just drag along at 2-3% per year. It will take decades to “turn around” to what these people are thinking”.

There are millions of people that sincerely believe,think,hope,wish, that once a bottom does occur then it’s off to the races again. Hard to believe that so many people are still 100% clueless as to what is going on in the world around them.

Comment by Jon
2009-02-03 10:38:50

When all the decent jobs in the area have been shipped to China, and your working at WalMart with no hope of a decent income, health care or retirement, even with your MBA, hope for a housing rebound is all you will ever have.

 
 
Comment by Muir
2009-02-03 09:16:45

I read the whole story. It’s kind of sad.
He was married for 35 years and his wife died of cancer in 05.
He remarried and 3 months later filled for divorce.
It’s easy to beat up on the guy, he made a mistake, but it doesn’t seem like he was trying to speculate. There are people like that, they make a mistake that if otherwise were not made in the middle of an economic insanity called a bubble, would be alright after a while.

Comment by Blue Skye
2009-02-03 13:09:00

Loosing your wife after three plus decades can blur your vision for a while. Trust me on this.

Comment by wolfgirl
2009-02-03 13:41:19

If/when my husband dies, I really have no interest in looking for a replacement. He was hard enough to housebreak.

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Comment by Bill in Carolina
2009-02-03 14:42:11

Same here. Next time I’ll rent.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-02-03 18:36:42

‘Loosing your wife after three plus decades can blur your vision for a while. Trust me on this.’

Sorry to hear it, Blue Skye.
The rest of you? You’re just gloomy. Man, drink some beer and cheer up!

 
Comment by Chip
2009-02-03 19:08:59

Bill - LOL - me, too. I observe that a lot of people in our age group are doing so - men and women.

 
 
 
Comment by Mike
2009-02-04 19:35:31

I feel sorry for him too.

 
 
 
Comment by pressboardbox
2009-02-03 09:15:40

I’m snapping up guns and ammo.

Comment by DennisN
2009-02-03 09:23:43

Just make sure you don’t snap up primers for reloading. And keep your powder dry.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-02-03 09:29:52

And if you like to practice dry firing, be sure you’re using a snap cap.

 
 
Comment by Muggy
2009-02-03 09:46:00

“I’m snapping up guns and ammo.”

I’m hoarding wine, pugs, and baritone ukuleles; the pillars of my utopian, post-consumer society. We’re almost there.

Comment by mikey
2009-02-03 10:19:41

How long can I live on Jack Daniel’s and popcorn ? :)

Comment by Rancher
2009-02-03 11:12:15

Till the popcorn runs out…….

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Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2009-02-03 11:27:37

After that, it’s just JD all day long, baby! ;-)

 
 
Comment by Neil
2009-02-03 11:12:47

Add rice and you have a complete protein. ;)

Got Popcorn?
Neil

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Comment by mikey
2009-02-03 12:03:35

Hey Neil, I knewthat if I mentioned I had popcorn..you’d re-appear :)

 
 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-02-03 10:40:50

Hahahahaha! Funny!

Comment by Muggy
2009-02-03 11:40:30

Oly, I have not come across bulk tiaras, but if I do, I’ll “snap them up!” for you. Promise me though, we won’t put tiaras on the pugs. I love pugs, but I don’t love pugs.

OMG, I’m a pet essay writer.

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Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2009-02-03 12:23:33

For a moment there, I thought you said you were gonna put tiaras on the PIGS.

Portugal-Italy-Greece-Spain.

Ain’t gonna be no tiaras there. Just tears. ;-)

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-02-03 13:12:22

‘I have not come across bulk tiaras, but if I do, I’ll “snap them up!” for you.’

Thanks! You’re one of the good ones. :)

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by jenkins
2009-02-03 09:23:09

‘I don’t know how people can go wrong when they’re buying a 2,100-square-foot home that’s 3 years old, in immaculate condition, for $50 a square foot.’”

That 3 year old part should be of grave concern as the home was built during the mania phase. So? Well this means that the home will be falling apart in 10 years tops so you had better be ready to rebuild soon.

Comment by james
2009-02-03 14:02:09

I’m remembering the headlines from Japan during their big bubble. Lots of properties were falling to pieces just a few short years after the collapse.

100,000 is a lot of money any way you slice it. You also have mantinance and up keep on the thing. Taxes.

What do you do with 2100 sq ft anyway? For what, four kids. Those big houses almost always had smaller premiums per sq ft. The market for such large families was always pretty small.

 
 
Comment by cobaltblue
2009-02-03 09:54:26

“…Houses that sold for $250,000 are going for $130,000. Everyone talked about a perfect storm. Right now there’s a perfect calm: low interest rates, a tremendous supply and low prices. If now’s not the time to buy, when is it going to be?”

When? When it’s CAPITULATION TIME!!!

When you wish you had never even thought about calling a bottom.

When you wish you had never tried to make a living in Real Estate.

When you wish you had never been born.

That’s when it’s going to be!

Comment by Bad Andy
2009-02-03 10:01:14

Wow cobalt…did we not take any happy pills today?

 
Comment by Neil
2009-02-03 10:31:28

So true.

No bottom until ‘everyone knows’ real estate was a stupid investment a la Florida in 1927/1928.

For every potential buyer I know, I know of a half dozen people wishing they could get out of a home (or two… or five…).

We’re *at least* 18 months from a bottom. (That’s as far out as I claim to have any vision now.)

The next ‘intersting step’ will be the states cutting their spending. California might be getting all of the news… but its not the only state in trouble.

Got Popcorn?
Neil

Comment by GeorgeSalt
2009-02-03 14:08:40

“No bottom until ‘everyone knows’ real estate was a stupid investment a la Florida in 1927/1928.”

That’s the contrarian signal I’m using to determine the correct time to buy. When I walk into the breakroom, announce to everyone that I’m thinking of buying a house, and everyone shakes their head and warns me that real estate is a terrible investment — then I’ll know it’s time to buy.

Unfortunately, that day is probably 2 or more years from now. Most people I know still believe the market will return to normal in a year or 2, and they still define “normal” as double-digit annual appreciation. This damn this is going to unwind at glacial speed.

Comment by DinOR
2009-02-03 15:50:09

GeorgeSalt,

And I wish I could BE there that day with you in the breakroom! I think you’ve effectively nailed it. When people begin to perform the math to figure out how many Not Throw Your Money Away On Rent payments they’ll need to make to recover just their down payment..?

That’s when it will dawn on them that the few years of “glory” they enjoyed as serial-refinacers simply wasn’t worth the “glacial speed” it will take for ALL of us to recover.

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Comment by Neil
2009-02-03 09:56:46

“Not only is it not worth fighting over, but (they) owe $100,000 on it and (their) credit is mashed. It is one less thing to fight about.’”

Anyone else have the image of the scene at the end of the life of Brian. Everyone on the cross merrily singing?

That Chinese drywall is scary… 60,000 homes worth. What is it outgassing? Is it bad enough that one sheet makes a home unsafe? For once the paint is on the walls… it will be impossible to find the offending piece of drywall.

Got Popcorn?
Neil

Comment by DennisN
2009-02-03 16:12:17

I wonder whether anyone has statistics as to which state got what quantity of the offending “Chinese drywall”. All I hear about it is in reference to places in Florida. Did any of it get shipped to places west of the Rockies?

 
 
Comment by michael
2009-02-03 10:24:46

“I could stay here until the market turns around,’ he said.”

idiot.

Comment by exeter
2009-02-03 14:55:37

Yes…. he could. But odds are he won’t. Not many of the weak hands have the intestinal fortitude.

 
 
Comment by Marcus
2009-02-03 10:26:59

‘It’s one of those bell curves that is trying to go down,’ said Charlie Green, the county’s Clerk of Courts.”

NO! No no no no no no no! Dammit, it’s not an f’in bell curve. Inventory plotted over time is not a Gaussian distribution of data points. I can’t even begin to encapsulate how incorrect this statement is, but it’s a typical bubbleism… use an arbitrary and unrelated concept to express the idea that a return to bubble conditions is a predictable and even logical outcome.

Comment by reuven
2009-02-03 11:23:46

Innumeracy was a big component of the bubble in the first place! I think one of the reasons I’ve never made a completely foolish investment was my math degree.

Even expecting sustained double-digit growth is an outrageous concept. If R-E went up 15% a year, after 30 years, a $100,000 house would be a $6,621,177 house. The only way this could happen is if, in 30 years, $6Million is equal to today’s equivalent of $100,000.

Similarly, I met people who, while not investing with Madoff, put their money in the hands of financial advisers who promised them 15% returns. They tried to get this by investing aggressively in high-rising stocks. A friend of mine lost 80% of his money last year. A simple index fund would have only cost him 40%. I told him to stay far away from anyone who promises a 15% return. But, since he was an English major, he didn’t realize how impossible that return is.

Comment by DinOR
2009-02-03 11:30:40

reuven,

True. There -are- years where the money God smiles upon you and for those we must be grateful. But for anyone to say they can deliver that consistently is a red flag right there.

 
Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2009-02-03 12:02:10

Once was interviewing a PhD in statistics.

Asked him why the “bell curve” (Gaussian distribution) was “special” among all the distributions? What made it unique?

Didn’t have a clue.

Could prove convergence theorems but didn’t have a firm grasp on the philosophical underpinnings of his subject.

FAIL.

Comment by not a gator
2009-02-03 16:28:23

Are you talking about a normal curve, or any Gaussian? (In physics we liked to use that one with the really thin/short tails, starts with a D.)

Were you looking for the fact that it approximates a binomial distribution?

Or the fact that it seems to turn up for some reason in piles of data like height measurements (which is kind of spooky)?

Do tell.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-02-03 18:38:21

You’s all fookin’ aggravating.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by DinOR
2009-02-03 10:36:45

“divorce, along with his sagging home value, has put him in a bind”

Now wait just a G-D minute here! Am I the only guy that’s getting tired of hearing this sorry excuse? For just one minute can we talk about all the couples that got divorced -during- the boom as a result of their inability to deal with their “new found wealth”?

How many couples called it quits b/c they couldn’t come to an agreement over Koi pond selections? How many threw in the towel over Harley vs. cruise vacations? There was a mad dash to lay claim to the cash and “I” have found that as many couples argue about the ‘presence’ of money as do about the ‘lack’ of money, if not more!

Comment by mikey
2009-02-03 10:57:45

Sheesh.. an lttle empathy here people, the man is losing his house and his wife’s love.

See what happens when you buy stuff and you DON’T pay for it America :)

 
Comment by (Soon to be ex-) GS fixer
2009-02-03 11:18:28

“Cruise Vacations”

Another thing I just don’t get. What’s the big attraction about going on a bloated, floating hotel for 3-4 days and:
-eating
-laying around getting a suntan.
-gamble

Even out here in flyover country, you can do all three on just about any day between April and November.

(I exclude from this calculus a Trans-Atlantic cruise (for historic reasons) and a “windjammer” type cruise (because everyone I know who has been on one says they are a blast).

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-02-03 11:45:13

Whatever you’re on, you’re still stuck on a boat. Ask any ex-Navy person about the downsides of that.

Comment by DinOR
2009-02-03 12:22:04

Arizona Slim,

True that! Actually Darrell_In_Phoenix and I served on the same ship at the same time and I’m sure he’ll tell you the same thing!

It’s bad enough when you’re “underway” w/ people that have done this before. So sporadic power outages, water rationing etc. are taken in stride. The other aspect is that everyone is basically 18 to 25 y.o and in perfect health. I just can’t imagine what one of these “cruises” must be like?

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Comment by (Soon to be ex-) GS fixer
2009-02-03 12:39:53

Ahhhhh, I kinda miss being around the “squids”…..

Too many USAF types around here……. :)

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-02-03 13:13:59

GS Fixer,

So true. I definitely had a “horse shoe in my back pocket” when I signed up for my reserve squadron! Nearly everyone in my shop was prior-Navy and they certainly influence the “culture” there.

Their attitudes about “just get it done and worry about the paperwork later” is more what I’m used to. When I was part of the old 939th ARW in Portland, there was me and (1) other squid. It sucked. Period.

…If, you can have your “20″ in prior to turning 60, they WILL take you! Hell, in addition to 400k in cheap life insurance they also let us participate in the Federal Thrift Savings Plan ( as in mark here ____ for free matching money ) Duh… otay. Just sayin’.

 
Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-02-03 16:40:42

“It’s bad enough when you’re “underway” w/ people that have done this before. So sporadic power outages, water rationing etc. are taken in stride. The other aspect is that everyone is basically 18 to 25 y.o and in perfect health. I just can’t imagine what one of these “cruises” must be like?”

100% completely, unlike being in the Navy.

No power outages, no water rationing, an army of servants fulfilling your every desire, live music, shows, bars, wonderful meals, glass elevators, swimming pools, hot tubs and water slides, private rooms with private heads, showers and your own TV, fairly confortable beds, room service….

Cruising is not 3 high racks, 3 deep, 1 inch pad, scratchy old wool blanket. It is not mess hall. No battle station drills. No stomping up and down hard, winding corridors and up ladders. No duty. No JP5 taste in the water. No hand held shower that is always too hot or too cold and never more than 2 minutes long. No waiting in line for a sink to shave. It is not being at sea for weeks with the same guys. A cruise is not 12 hour work days away from firends and family. It is not musters and “Yes sirs” and uniform inspections. No BMR, or Blue Jacket’s manual or 10 standard orders of the sentry. No special request chits. No standing in line for hours to get a candy bar from the ship’s store…. I so HATED when the Marines were on board.

Ugh… the “grade D” meet. The greasy sliders that were 30% soy and 40% fat. Rice with every meal… sometimes AS the meal.

The ONLY thing that is the same between being on a cruise and being in the Navy is….

I’ll let you know if I come up with one.

 
Comment by jane
2009-02-03 21:04:12

Darrell, my son is a Marine in a Naval Air Wing. I imagine that he will spend most of his time on an aircraft carrier - don’t have a clue, but it seems to me this is the only place you have both “Navy” and “Air Wing” co-located.

For the betterment of my civilian understanding, please tell me why the Navy guys hated it when the Marines were on board?

To make this housing related, I encouraged my son to work hard, live simply and always on base, bank all of his salary, and take maximum advantage of all matching programs. Thereby, emerging after 20 years, he’ll have a stash for a down payment and a 10 point veterans’ preference for his next career.

There is a certain segment of the population that craves a rigorous physical regimen at ungodly hours, clean living,
hard work, and unsentimental thinking. As we are nowhere near Amish farmers, the Marines were a really good choice and he is really, really loving it. Even liked Parris Island.

 
 
 
Comment by bluprint
2009-02-03 15:51:35

I don’t do boats so well. Small boat on a lake, I’m fine. Out in the ocean not so good.

Anyway, my wife and I were in Cancun and took a boat to some island, 45 min ride or so and by the time we get there I can’t get off the boat fast enough. Calm waters, sunny morning.

Just before it was time to go back a storm rolled in. By the time we got on the boat, it was a hella storm. I figured my guts would be thoroughly emptied by the time we got back to mainland. They dropped these tarps over the open windows so we wouldn’t get rained on and basically sang and handed out tequilla all the way back. Rolling seas. I was fine. :)

 
Comment by gather no moss
2009-02-03 18:02:52

I’d consider a cruise only if someone like Holland America would offer a Dutch coffee shop cruise. Why the hell don’t they????

 
 
Comment by Shelby
2009-02-03 13:16:15

Ah, the “Divorce House” is always a great buy !

The lovebirds can’t wait to unload their lovenest to go onto bigger & better!

ALWAYS lowball the hell out of divorcing sellers (rich ones!)
You’ll be amazed at the deals you can get (look for one that’s been on the Market more than 6 Months)

 
Comment by cereal
2009-02-03 17:09:44

no contest here.

I’ll take a new motorcycle over a cruise vaca anyday.

Maybe something Italian

Ducati,

Moto Guzzi…..

Piazzo MP3 500…..

 
 
Comment by reuven
2009-02-03 10:54:19

“Residents owe the city $90,000. If they don’t pay $12,929 by the first week of March, the city is threatening to turn off the water. Because the community has master meters rather than individual unit gauges, the city can’t separate owners who are current on their bills from delinquent customers. If the water goes away, so will Narrabe…who says she could not afford both her mortgage and rent on another place.”

“‘I don’t know what to do,’ she said. ‘If they evict us, that’s my big problem. If I was by myself, that’s another thing. But my two little daughters? We can’t live without water.’”

These stories are getting more and more common. And I’ve searched through Thomas.gov and can’t find one instance of any legislator trying to “help” anyone but the deadbeats! More and more, people who pay their bills are getting screwed, and given little choice but to become deadbeats themselves.

Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2009-02-03 13:28:42

“I don’t know what we will do without water.” Duh. Get a wrench, open the manhole, turn it back on.

Comment by Sleeper Cell
2009-02-03 13:53:25

LOL. That would be asking them to actually THINK about the situation. Cant have the sheeple doing THAT now can we?

 
Comment by potential buyer
2009-02-03 15:50:07

How legal is for the water company to deny them water, when they have actually paid their portion, I wonder?

Comment by reuven
2009-02-03 16:31:44

If the water company’s contract was with the HOA and not the individual homedebtors, why wouldn’t it be legal? The HOA has an obligation to pay its debts. If individual members suffer, their only remedy is to sue the HOA. There may be no agreement in place between the Utility and the individual residents.

The people with the most legal leverage may be any tenants! They don’t have to pay rent if there’s no water, but won’t be compelled to leave, either.

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Comment by HousePoor
2009-02-03 13:30:35

I’ve searched through Thomas.gov and can’t find one instance of any legislator trying to “help” anyone but the deadbeats!

You wouldn’t want the government to step in, would you? I’m sure private enterprise will come up with some creative solutions to their problems.

 
 
Comment by Mo Money
2009-02-03 11:01:04

“Narrabe is one of 28 unit owners — out of 168 — in the Deerfield Palms condo association who still pay their monthly maintenance fees, which are used to pay the community’s water bill.”

I was going to suggest they shut off the water to the units that are not paying their fees but if they were built as cheaply as most condos are they don’t even have individual unit shutoffs.

Man, 140 non-paying owners ? WTF are they thinking ?

Comment by Chip
2009-02-03 20:44:13

Something doesn’t sound right. That would seem to mean that if a unit sprang a leak, they’d have to shut off everybody’s in order to fix it. A buddy of mine owns a small condo over at the beach and I remember seeing a flat-handle switch on the water line. It was over the water heater - you couldn’t replace a water heater without one.

 
 
Comment by Jen Bones
2009-02-03 11:09:14

“‘I can’t guarantee you that it’s at the bottom. But it’s so close that I don’t think it even matters any more,’ said Ed Farah of Better Homes & Gardens Real Estate Laviano & Associates in Port St. Lucie. ‘I don’t know how people can go wrong when they’re buying a 2,100-square-foot home that’s 3 years old, in immaculate condition, for $50 a square foot.’”

Two words: Chinese drywall.

Luv,
Jen

Comment by reuven
2009-02-03 11:16:00

…or if the other folks in the HOA aren’t paying their dues….

Comment by Muggy
2009-02-03 11:49:35

…it’s in Florida.

 
 
Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2009-02-03 11:22:51

O.K., O.K…let’s see what’s in today’s news: ;-)

Made in China = toxic warning label
Made in India = toxic label warning

Lennar files suit over Chinese drywall:

“…The suit seeks unspecified damages for alleged harm done to Lennar’s reputation. It also seeks damages for the costs to investigate the problem, replace the drywall and provide housing while repairs are made.” ;-)

http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2009/02/02/daily32.html

 
 
Comment by MacAttack
2009-02-03 12:17:30

Snapping up houses on Alligator Avenue.
On my running route is a street of nouveau riche houses, of which two are bank-owned and a couple more are pre-foreclosure. Almost every time I run by, I think about taking a piece of cardboard, painting it green, and making a slip-over street sign that says “Alligator Ave.”

Comment by DinOR
2009-02-03 12:25:36

MacAttack,

Too funny! ( Can I help? )

Snapping up indeed!

 
 
Comment by Skip
2009-02-03 12:26:42

More than 1,000 people were standing in line to obtain job applications for just 35 positions as firefighters.”

Looks like the taxpayers can save some money by reducing pay and retirement benefits of firemen. They are over paid for this economic climate.

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-02-03 12:45:15

We’re not going to be able to afford the pensions on any government workers, teachers included.

Comment by DinOR
2009-02-03 13:20:02

Well, in -any- economic climate, the truth is: I simply can’t afford these types any more!

If you see me on the street and I’m literally engulfed in flames… just keep driving! Let. Me. Burn. I can’t afford you. Statistically speaking a guy like myself ( that WALKS (1) block to work ) in a NON-smoking environment is a HELL of a lot more likely to die from being over-worked to pay the taxes to fund your pension then I EVER will from some kind of “emergency”.

In fact, it’s a guarantee.

Comment by DinOR
2009-02-03 13:23:55

Oh yeah, and “face traffic” on the way there and then go around the other way at the end of the day ( facing one-way traffic ) to check the mail at the end of the day.

I do NOT engage in any form of “extreme sports” nor play with explosives of any kind. Thanks but no thanks. Cops? Feel the same way.

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Comment by cereal
2009-02-03 17:12:57

DinOR,

Does that mean you won’t be purchasing an AFLAC policy anytime soon?

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-02-03 12:44:16

“Another thing I just don’t get. What’s the big attraction about going on a bloated, floating hotel for 3-4 days and:
-eating
-laying around getting a suntan.
-gamble”

“Whatever you’re on, you’re still stuck on a boat. Ask any ex-Navy person about the downsides of that.”

Okay, confession time. Being ex-Navy, when my now-wife and I were first dating she talked about enjoying cruises. She’d been on 2 or 3.

I’ve been out to sea. I’m not into buffets. I don’t drink alcohol, and I don’t gamble. I HATE shopping, especially for the luxury goods they seem to push on the cruises.

Jump ahead 2 years later and we’re gettnig married, and for the honeymoon, I agree to go on a cruise. 7-night out of San Juan. Antigua, Dominica, St. Thomas, St. Lucia, Barbados…. another I think, I forget. No “at sea” days.

So, you board the cruise, and straight off to eat yummy food. Then wander down to your state room. Your bags have been delivered to your room. Unpack and nap. Then head up to the deck for the poolside sail-away, live music, dancing, etc. Then an absolutely wonderful dinner. Then head into the full theater for a Broadway style musical review sampling of other shows you can watch later in the cruise. Then wander around the ship relaxing watching the waves go past. Then sleep.

Next morning, wake up in an exotic port. Hit the gym for an hour. Wide variety of food for breakfast. Head to shore for a look around. Then meet up with a group to go on an adventure… maybe zip-lining though a forest, or taking a sailboat out to snorkel with sea turtles, or ride in a zodiac to secluded reef to snorkel, stop by a beach on the way back… After the adventure, head back onto the ship for snack, shower, nap.

Then, comes dinner… Awesome 3-4 course meal of the highest quality. Not 1, but 2 waiters tending your every need. Want a second shrimp coctail apatizer? No problem, it is all included. Can’t decide between the steak and lobster or the chicken marsala? Have both. A second soufflee? Or can’t decide between the baked alaska and the chotoclate fudge cake? Sure, I’ll try them both.

Then, after dinner, you stroll past the 6-8 bars, each playing a different style of live music, back to the theater for another broadway musical, or perhaps a comedy show tonight. After the show, stop by the lounge where they’re doing a comedy game show.

When you finally return to your room, you find the bed turned down, mints on the pillow, and a towel folded into the shap of elephant, or 2 towels folded into a pair of swans.

It’s been 3-4 hours since dinner, and you are starting to wish you’d had the cheese cake instead of the 2 other deserts, so you pick up the phone and press “room service”. You order the cheese cake, and it is rushed up to you room… all included in the proce of the ticket.

Repeat the next day.

And, how much is it for all this? You can usually find cruises for under $100 a day per person + $10-ish a day in tips. The shore excursions are extra, but usually $50-$100 per person depending on what you want to do.

The last one my wife and I did we spent $70 a day, but got upgraed to a room with a private balcony. Only 3 port days on the 7 day cruise… but it was still great. Horseback riding on the beach in Cabo, ziplining over an old agave farm/taquliia distillary in Mazatlan, and party boat to private beach with snorkeling off Porta Villarta.

And how much did this week-long, adventure filled, all-you-can-eat, entertainment packed, fun and relazing trip cost? $1200 for both of us… cruise, tax, fees, tips, and excursions, including the gas to drive to L.A.

And that $1200 includes 2 additional days at Disneyland.

I really thought I would hate it, but I love cruises.

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2009-02-03 14:56:32

Cruising endlessly would be a drag, but the kind of cruise where you’re under way at night and in a port or “private island” each day is great. I didn’t think I’d like cruising, but the first one was so great we’ll probably take our second one this year.

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-02-03 15:41:53

“taquliia distillary”

You really *don’t drink DO you Darrell? I’ve just heard too many horror stories about ship-wide viruses, turning back to port and pushy New Yorkers etc.

It all just seems so consumption oriented. But if people have fun more power to ‘em.

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-02-03 16:19:50

No, I don’t drink alcohol… And I suck at typing. And, it wasn’t in Jalesco, so wasn’t really taquilla…. Blue Agave distilled product.

About these shipwide viruses… how often do you hear about them? Once a year? The major cruise lines have dozens of ships each sailing continously. Hundreds… No, thousands of sailings per month.

The last cruise we did was Norwegien, and every time you went back on the ship, and every time you entered a dining room, they had a person there with hand sanatizer making sure you sanatized your hands. Not to mention the army of wiper-downers constantly wiping down hand rails and such.

Consumption oriented??? Oh yeah!!! But, $70 per person, per day for room, very good food, lots of entertainment, waited on hand and foot, and transportation between exotic locations?? How are you going to beat that?

Not to mention, the perfect way to off your spouse, should you be inclined.

 
 
Comment by DennisN
2009-02-03 16:20:41

The only cruise I really liked was one going from San Diego to Honolulu. What a ship. It had a real laid teak deck AND a nuclear powerplant (DinOR should be able to identify the exact ship from this data). It could really haul ass when required. And we had lots of neat entertainement. For example, we got to see the CIWS get set on full-auto and shred a towed drone flying overhead. The USS Missouri came up about a mile off our port side and fired several broadsides at dusk for our fireworks display of the evening. And then the sight of Hawaii rising over the horizon. It’s much better to see Hawaii from the deck of a ship than from an airplane.

Downside: the food was mediocre and for some reason they had run out of booze. Plus the maid kept forgetting to put a mint on my pillow at bedtime.

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-02-03 16:46:33

Long Beach?

She was still active when I was at 32nd street. She had such a unique profile. That giant square super structure….

Comment by DennisN
2009-02-03 17:34:40

You got it. CGN-9. I sailed as a contractor rep. when the Long Beach was the flagship of Battle Group Sierra in 1987.

The Long Beach shared the first phased-array radar system the Navy fielded with the USS Enterprise.

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Comment by cereal
2009-02-03 17:15:10

I still want the motorcycle

 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2009-02-03 12:52:57

“How about that chinese drywall?”

They scrub sulfur from the coal fired power plants to keep it out of the air, and by a miracle of chemistry, turn it into drywall for your house. Plenty of other nasties can be hidden in this stuff, including mercury. Welcome to your own personal toxic waste site.

Cheapest bidder economy.

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-02-03 13:11:10

Ever since the melamine thing I study the labels on the candy in the store for where it’s made. I decided I won’t ever eat any foodstuffs from China anymore, nohow. At least not on purpose.
I figger I got enough exciting stuff floating around in my veins and buzzing through my brains aready.

(But in the past I have eaten a whole bunch of candy from China, I bet, and this gives me some anxiety.)

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-02-03 13:16:49

‘aready’

I meant ‘already’. See! Lookit! Previous Chinese candy poisoning is clearly causing bad spelling skills in me! Bad!

Comment by palmetto
2009-02-03 14:06:15

I love Chiclets, always have. The ones I buy now come from Columbia. What the heck. Maybe they have some cocaine residue in them.

Does anyone know of gum made in the US that doesn’t have aspartame in it?

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Comment by not a gator
2009-02-03 16:39:31

Look for xylitol, if you aren’t allergic to it. (I know somebody who has horrid intestinal distress whenever he consumes xylitol, and of course it’s toxic to dogs, but it doesn’t bother me a bit.)

xylitol, sorbitol, etc are sugar alchohols, with 2 Cal/gram vs. 4 Cal/g glucose, etc. they mix various non-sugar sweeteners for better taste.

 
Comment by gather no moss
2009-02-03 18:14:25

Does anyone know of gum made in the US that doesn’t have aspartame in it?

Not sure where it’s made, but Glee gum is on the Feingold Program. In order to get into the Feingold book, food must not only be free of preservatives and dye, but the manufacturer must know where their ingredients are coming from.

Looks like they also have a kit where you can make your own:
http://www.gleegum.com/make-your-own-kits.htm

I’ve never tried their gum, I don’t chew gum anymore.

 
 
 
Comment by gather no moss
2009-02-03 18:21:54

Oly,

A lot of people believe that artificial dye and preservatives cause ADD and ADHD. Dye is unregulated by the FDA and is usually manufactured in China or India. I put my eight year old son on a special diet and it has really helped. The best part is he now occasionally gets it in his head to write letters to elected officials asking them to ban the stuff, if we’re at the farmer’s market or county fair, he manages to find whoevers stumping and shares his views with them. If nothing else, at least he expends some energy bugging an adult other than me and his dad.

Comment by gather no moss
2009-02-03 18:34:55

Glee gum doesn’t contain aspartame, I think it’s made in RI. You can buy it in Trader Joe’s.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-02-03 18:51:21

Hmmm…
Oh, yeah? If only I could pay attention to your thoughts and give lots of wise thinkiness towards understanding you. But I cannot, and do you know why? Because I didn’t take any Ritalin today, is why. I’m not even being ironic here, is the really sad part. Only I find that sequential and organized thought is:
1.) Not that much of a benefit with the people I have to deal with at this time of year; this would be elected representative officials, here in Olympia, WA, and
2.) Hey, lookit! There’s a moth! Pretty! I must catch it!

Anyway, I grew up eating only poached wildlife and gooseberries, and none of any of it had odd bright colors from India?
And look at me now.
Hummingbird time.

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Comment by Moman
2009-02-04 09:52:27

I have tried very hard to not buy products containing artificial flavors or colors.

The artificial sweeteners in Diet Coke give me a severe headache, so I avoid them as well.

When are the people of this country going to wake up and realize that purchasing processed, breaded, frozen, preserved foods is not good?

 
 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2009-02-03 13:24:04

“‘You have to accept reality,’ said Brett Ellis, real estate agent in Fort Myers.”
_______________________

Another Brett Ellis wrote a classic 1980s novel entitled “Less Than Zero.” Coincidence? I think not.

Comment by ryan in tampa
2009-02-04 05:14:27

We might see a lot of Brett Ellis’ other novel types running around soon as well.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-02-03 14:43:58

“‘Affordability is its own driving force — the better it gets, the better it gets,’ he said.”

The housing crash ain’t over till it’s over.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-02-03 15:10:17

Financial Times
US housing market shows signs of life
By Alan Rappeport in New York
Published: February 3 2009 17:45 | Last updated: February 3 2009 17:45

A glimmer of hope appeared for the US housing market on Tuesday as the closely-watched index of pending home sales rose by 6.3 per cent in December from the previous month, rebounding from a record low as falling prices lured buyers.

“For people willing to accept the high probability of immediate capital loss, the recent drop in mortgage rates has certainly improved affordability substantially,” said Ian Sheperdson, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics.

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-02-03 16:08:39

Seasonal adjustment uses data from a normal market to make guesses about the current market. That only works if current market is a normal market. This is NOT a normal market making seasonally adjusted data misleading and dangerous.

Pending home sales is double dangerous as it is not a measure of contracts signed within the last x amount of time, it is a measure of how many have been signed but not yet closed/cancelled. As credit conditions tighten and houses stay under contract longer, the number of pendings increases even if there is no increase in actual contracts signed.

If the longer contract period is due to tighter lending standards, then a higher pending number may actually be indicative of LOWER future closings, not increased future closings as it would indicate in a normal market.

In short, this number is, at best, worthless, and at worst, highly misleading.

 
 
Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2009-02-03 16:03:15

“Conservative Sen. John Thune of South Dakota came to the Senate floor equipped with visual aids to help his fellow senators. One showed that if $1 trillion was in $100 bills, the stack would soar 689 miles high.”

WHAT????

A United States bill is .0043 inches think.

$1 trillion, $100 bills = 10 billion.

10 billion x .0043 = 43 million inches

3,583,333 feet.

678 miles high….

Holy Smokes!!!!

Last time I calculated this, I had it as 68 miles high. I must have messed up an order of magnitude. My bad. Make it 1.1 trillion and I can get from my house in Glendale AZ, to Disneyland, AND BACK.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2009-02-03 18:30:17

A stack of OPM, no matter how tall, is easily spent.

 
 
Comment by Chip
2009-02-03 20:49:42

“…one in three Orlando homes sold in the last year were sold at a loss.”

“In Orlando, home values are down 20-percent year-over-year.”

http://www.wftv.com/news/18631911/detail.html?taf=orlc

No surprise there - proceeding as destined.

 
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