What Makes It Difficult To Sell
The Lawrence Journal World reports from Kansas. “In 2008, 1,360 properties were sold in Douglas County, nearly all of them residential, according to Board of Realtors statistics. That was down 21 percent from the 1,677 properties sold in 2007. Jennifer Harrell has been trying to sell her Lawrence townhouse for more than a year. Three years ago, when the housing market was still booming, she obtained a 100 percent loan for her house. She still doesn’t have enough equity in it.”
“‘I would have to sell my house for a lot higher than what it is appraised at to afford a down payment on another house,’ said Harrell. ‘That’s what makes it difficult to sell.’”
“The once-booming home construction industry in Lawrence is entering a third year of decline. Homes built by contractors on speculation that someone will buy them has dwindled, said Mike Nuffer, president of Lawrence Home Builders. ‘It does seem that there are a lot of people who want to do something, but they’re just scared,’ Nuffer said.”
The Sun Times from Illinois. “In Oak Park, the average sale price for single-family homes in 2008 was $484,749 — down $41,000 (-8.5 percent) from 2007, according to an industry report. In River Forest, the average sale price dropped a shade below 2 percent, from $918,405 to $901,275. For condominiums and town houses, prices also took a tumble in 2008. In Oak Park, the average price dropped from $273,834 in 2007 to $241,217 (-13.5 percent). In River Forest, the drop was 25 percent ($243,132 to $193,534), and in Forest Park from $222,142 to $192,123 (-15.6 percent).”
“‘Some people in the industry asked me, ‘Aren’t you concerned that homeowners will be discouraged by it?’ Well, I’d rather they be a little disappointed now, rather than be in denial about home values and get blindsided later,’ said Richard C. Gloor Jr., president of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gloor Realty in Oak Park, which did the report.”
“‘”This really shouldn’t be surprising news for anyone,’ said Gloor. ‘We simply want to be upfront with the facts. The truth is that Oak Park, River Forest and Forest Park have all fared relatively well. This is a strong market and there’s no question that it will absolutely remain that way.’”
“He noted that between 2003 and 2008, Oak Park home prices are up 22 percent, while in River Forest the increase has been 44 percent and in Forest Park, 37 percent. And collectively, compared to 2000 levels, home prices are up nearly 90 percent, with Forest Park up 108 percent, River Forest up 95 percent, and Oak Park up 69 percent.”
“‘When taking even a little bit of a longer view, it’s clear that we have experienced strong growth in home values,’ said Gloor. ‘It’s so important to maintain a perspective that is more historical than hysterical.’”
“In the Chicago-Naperville-Joliet area, home prices decreased 11.8 percent from Nov. 2007 to Nov. 2008, according to First American CoreLogic and its Home Price Index. The three-city area had the 14th largest decline in the nation. The current median price of a home in Chicago-Naperville-Joliet is $230,000, the report said. Sales of single-family homes decreased by 45.8 percent in Chicago-Naperville-Joliet in November compared to the same time last year.”
The Southside Times from Indiana. “The Southside housing market is doing quite well, thank you. Banks have mortgage money to lend, interest rates are low and houses in Indiana are more affordable than in many other states. That’s the message a newly formed Southside alliance of Realtors and real estate brokers are promoting. They want to counter the doom-and-gloom economic forecasts portrayed almost daily by the national news media.”
“‘We’re proud that Southside Realtors came up with this unique idea of an alliance,’ said Mike Watkins. ‘We just have to get the message across that now is the time to get a good deal on buying a house.’”
“The alliance has brought Realtors and brokers closer together after a period of technology, such as cell phones and e-mails, kept them apart. ‘It’s getting to be like the old days. We’re talking to each again, once more have a spirit of cooperation, and we’re in it to where we all win,’ Linda Leveridge said.”
The Herald Palladium from Michigan. “You’ve been hearing stories about falling housing prices, but when your property tax assessment notice arrives later this month you’ll see an increase in your taxes. What gives?”
“The answer lies in a change Michigan made in the mid-1990s that pegged property taxes to the inflation rate and for the most part decoupled them from a house’s assessed value. Figures from the National Association of Realtors and the Michigan Association of Realtors state that during the past year, average house prices have fallen 15 percent nationally, 16.19 percent in Michigan and 7.74 percent locally.”
“Local assessors said these figures are misleading because they include foreclosures, family sales, sales done under duress and estate sales, which assessors can’t use. Assessors can only base their assessments on sales done freely in the open market.”
“It’s been a good ride. Longtime property owners have benefited greatly from Proposal A during the past 14 years. The Michigan Department of Treasury reports on its Web site that home values in Michigan have increased by 98.4 percent since 1995, while property taxes have only increased by 42.9 percent.”
“In cases of foreclosure, St. Joseph Township Assessor Sue Rice said the selling price is often much lower than the house’s true market value. In that case, she said the assessment would not be lowered to match the selling price. ‘That (the selling price) doesn’t reflect what it’s worth,’ she said. ‘You just got a good deal.’”
The Huron Daily Tribune from Michigan. “While reports show foreclosures are on the rise just about everywhere, the number of mortgage foreclosures in Huron County actually decreased slightly from 2007 and 2008. Huron County Register of Deeds Sheri Stanton said there were 91 mortgage foreclosures in 2008, which is a decrease from the 98 recorded in 2007.”
“Deputy Mike McCormick, who works in the Huron County Sheriff Office’s Civil Process Division, said he has seen no decrease in the amount of foreclosure activity. For example, in 2008, there were a total of 178 postings (which is a posted notification stating a property is in foreclosure), and more than 300 adjournments (which are delays of mortgage foreclosure sales because an agreement has been reached between a property owner and financial institution).”
“‘I’ve had some properties that have been adjourned (every week to the next week) for six months,’ he said in regard to the amount of activity he’s seen regarding area mortgage foreclosures.”
“Regarding the actual number of sales, McCormick said he’s seen a huge increase from 2006. ‘We would do about four foreclosure sales a month (in 2006),’ he said. “We’re doing four to six a week now. It’s just gotten crazy.’”
“Tuscola County Register of Deeds Daniel L. Grimshaw reported mortgage foreclosures were up from 277 in 2007 to 323 in 2008. ‘And we’re not done going up yet,’ he said. ‘We already had 22 recorded this year for January.’”
“The number of sheriff’s deeds recorded in Tuscola County has steadily increased from year to year, Grimshaw said. For example, there were 146 reported in 2005, and 203 in 2006. Just out of curiosity, Grimshaw said he had looked up the number of mortgage foreclosures back in 1930. ‘That was the first year of the Depression, and we had 59 (mortgage foreclosures),’ he said. ‘My guess is that we’re not done climbing yet. This is by far the worst that I’ve seen in the real estate industry in the almost 20 years that I’ve been involved.’”
The Holland Sentinel from Michigan. “Curtis Sall used to build about 50 new homes a year. He hasn’t built one in two years. Sall said he was forced to figure out a new way to make money. ‘What can we do in this market?’ asked Sall. ‘We can’t sell like we did … We have to adapt.’”
“He and his business partner, Realtor Paul Brooks, have since come up with an idea Sall said will be good for the city of Holland. The plan: Purchase cheap, run-down homes near downtown resulting from the ‘foreclosure tsunami,’ fix them up and resell them for an average of $80,000. That’s 20 percent less than what they sold for a few years ago, before they were fixed up.”
“In the last year, the men have bought 15 foreclosed houses, which included two outside of the area — a $2,900 house in downtown Grand Rapids and a $9,000 home in Fennville. Sall and Brooks have sold about five renovated homes so far, with many still in process. They said many potential customers, however, are either too scared to commit or have a checkered past.”
“‘The people that do knock on our doors do have credit issues,’ Sall said.”
The Kenosha News from Wisconsin. “The changing mortgage market is cutting into the ranks of independent brokers. Virginia Murphy, one such broker for the past 25 years, decided last month she could no longer work in the industry on her own. She closed shop and joined a larger brokerage in Kenosha.”
“The real estate boom helped her business grow, but when the market contracted she initially figured she would be able to weather the storm. ‘In 2007 there was a gradual decline,’ Murphy said. ‘In 2008 it got very stressful, and I was just worried about keeping the lights on.’”
“In Kenosha County, people who had ridden the coattails of the real estate boom began to flee the business. Developers pulled back from housing plans. Some high profile real estate investors…saw their properties fall into foreclosure. The Kenosha Realtors Association saw its membership decline from 568 at the end of 2006 to 392 in 2009.”
“The ranks of the independent mortgage brokers began to contract rapidly. Of 32 Kenosha-based companies on a Web catalog of Wisconsin mortgage brokers, just four still have working phone numbers. ‘They dropped like flies,’ said Realtor Larry Cappozzo.”
The Toledo Blade from Ohio. “The house had mold, a leaky roof, and a somewhat checkered history for its link to one of Toledo’s most high-profile investment fraud cases. But new owner Mark Davis couldn’t be happier with the deal he struck. ‘I felt I got a steal,’ said Mr. Davis.”
“He bought the house last year from the mortgage-holder after a foreclosure. It is the former residence of John Ulmer, who faces trial next month on charges of fraud and racketeering. The price was less than half the 2006 appraisal of $553,000. More important, the sprawling six-bedroom house built in 1956 carries one of the metro area’s toniest addresses: Underhill Road in Ottawa Hills. And it isn’t the only deal there.”
“The listing for one property, whose owners are seeking $796,000, boasted a recent ‘$200,000 price reduction.’ The wealth of the 4,600-person enclave, with rolling hills, parkland, and million-dollar dwellings, has been unable to insulate it from the problems vexing housing markets nationwide. Owners who couldn’t keep up with mortgage payments have locked the doors and walked away from some houses.”
“Lucas County delinquent property-tax rolls include a $1.1 million estate whose owner is behind by $33,000. As of last week, about 2 percent of the village’s homeowners owed $100 or more each in back taxes, the county treasurer’s office said.”
“Median family income is $117,000, or more than double the average for metro Toledo, according to the 2000 Census. But, in the current economy, even the rich are suffering. ‘People don’t have the expendable cash like before because the economy is down,’ one resident observed. ‘A lot of people in Ottawa Hills are self-employed.’”
“There were 68 homes sold in 2008, or 15 fewer than the year before, village officials said. ‘It’s a little slow,’ said Betty Lazzaro, a real estate agent with numerous listings in Ottawa Hills. ‘Everybody is looking for a bargain now. If the seller is in a position to sell at a low price, they sell. If not, they hang on.’”
“The biggest obstacle to selling high-end homes is a lack of consumer confidence in the metro Toledo real estate market, said Mark Kruse of Danberry Co. Realtors. ‘Buyers don’t want to buy something for $1.2 million and find out five years from now that it’s worth $800,000,’ he said.”
“Nearby, on Brookside Road, another foreclosed home was transferred to the mortgage-holder on Feb. 2. The family that lived there once owned a 2005 Volvo and a 2005 Mercedes Benz. But the man, who worked in finance, lost a job in 2006 and turned to substitute teaching. They bought the 1927 brick Colonial for $427,000 the year before.”
“Some owners who are unable to sell rent their homes. That is the case with a California woman who came here to start a business, bought a $1.1 million house, and returned to the West Coast when the business failed to pan out. The $2,000 she receives in rent each month covers only a portion of her ownership expenses, said Ryan Phillips, who works for the management company that oversees the property. ‘But she didn’t want it vacant,’ Mr. Phillips explained.”
“Village officials insist that the real estate market in Ottawa Hills is no worse than markets elsewhere. Prices have declined 15 percent in recent years, conceded accountant Kevin Gilmore, who serves as village mayor. ‘In Florida, they would be ecstatic about 15 percent declines in value,’ he said. ‘Everybody everywhere is sick about what’s going on.’”
“‘I would have to sell my house for a lot higher than what it is appraised at to afford a down payment on another house,’ said Harrell. ‘That’s what makes it difficult to sell.’”
I love that strategy! I’m going to raise my consulting rate to $10,000,000/hour. It may be hard to find a client, but when I do, I can retire after 1 day!
“She obtained a 100 percent loan for her house.”
Thus, not only is it irrelevant in determining what it is worth, it should be emotionally irrelevant. My step dad was discussing what his house was worth yesterday and began by saying well I paid X and invested Y in Z. I bit my tongue and said nothing because he is not really putting it on the market and
I didnt feel like arguing. I think he must have got expert advise from HGTV.
This one bit my mom hard, though. She listed her MI house last summer, and at the time didn’t “really” need to sell. Between her Realtor(tm) and my brother she priced it way above market. In the meantime she got a job, moved and got laid off. Now she NEEDS to sell and still can’t find a competent Realtor(tm) to get a good listing price.
The last bimbo she talked to gave her a market analysis that came up with the same price the house sat on the market all last summer at. When pinned down she mentioned something about the carpet color - what an idiot.
Where’s the house at??
Dexter. Just north of Hudson Mills Park. It should be on Zillow, I haven’t checked.
Well she made a wise choice not to sell….It’s her HOME and she loves it to death.
I guess she will have to move back and die in her precious home.
Otherwise she would knock off 20% and get rid of it this week.
Lawrence, Kansas has always been a speculative community. Basically, all their population growth/new construction was a result of white flight from Topeka and people commuting to Topeka. As that gravy train ends, so goes Lawrence down the tubes.
What happens when the wealthy blacks move in? Happened in the neighborhood I grew up in, and, oh, did that frost some of the neighbors. Too bad for them. The black newcomers were some of the best neighbors around.
What about the university?
That’s where I assumed most of their market came from — professors, staff, and entrepreneurs who cater to that built-in college crowd.
Lawrence Ks. is also close enought to be a Kansas City ‘burb too.
I bet 1/2 of Lawrence works in Topeka (hell-hole) the other 1/2 works in KC
They also have some of the highest Taxes in the Country - yep - in Bum F*@# Kansas….
At rush hour, you can do the Lawrence-Downtown KC drive faster than the Olathe-Downtown drive on I-35.
BTW……I’m offended. Only 80% of Topeka is a hell-hole. And inbreeding is not a problem confined to Arkansas/Kentucky.
I think I’d rather live in Topeka than within the cookie-cutter, wanna-be Californian, yuppie sprawl in Johnson county, Kansas.
Lawrence is to Kansas as Gainesville is to Florida.
College town.
anyone have rental stories
$2000 to live in a million dollar house
sounds like fun
These expensive properties have been at these ratios in N AZ for a long time. I bet you can do better than this, actually. Imagine the bath this lady is taking on this place every month. That is a sure walk-away at some point.
Had someone put together a “Luxury Property Landlord Burn-Rate to Walk-Away Calculator” I’d have been much more open to posh bubble-sitting?
It would have to include the accidental LL’s fico and access to untapped sources of credit to subsidize your bling-a-licious lifestyle.
million dollar house
says who?
“‘We’re proud that Southside Realtors came up with this unique idea of an alliance,’ said Mike Watkins. ‘We just have to get the message across that now is the time to get a good deal on buying a house.’”
“The alliance has brought Realtors and brokers closer together after a period of technology, such as cell phones and e-mails, kept them apart. ‘It’s getting to be like the old days. We’re talking to each again, once more have a spirit of cooperation, and we’re in it to where we all win,’ Linda Leveridge said.”
Linda Leveridge(Leverage) ?!? Where does Ben FIND stories with these names ?
“..getting like the old days’. Help me here !
Can’t we procecute these A$$holes with CONSPIRACY to Commit Fraud, Collusion to Fix Prices or something from the RICO statutes ?
“‘We’re proud that Southside Realtors came up with this unique idea of an alliance,’ said Mike Watkins. ‘We just have to get the message across that……….. now is the time to get a good deal on buying a house.’”
As we have seen, again and again, just like with Wallstreet Brokers, Realtwhores ALWAYS say “Now is the best time to buy”.
Remember the last ploy from the NAR? They started the “BEST TIME TO BUY” campaign about 2 years ago.
That name is hilarious. Even more hilarious, though, is the opinion of St. Joseph Township Assessor Sue Rice. Can someone in that position be impeached? I wouldn’t want to be owning property anywhere within that township for as long as she holds office.
And in St. Joseph township no less. Buried statues much?
“The alliance has brought Realtors and brokers closer together after a period of technology, such as cell phones and e-mails, kept them apart. ‘It’s getting to be like the old days. We’re talking to each again, once more have a spirit of cooperation, and we’re in it to where we all win,’ Linda Leveridge said.”
I love this para. It says so much.
1) We’re so not busy now we can hang around and talk to each other.
2) We’re in it to where we all win, working as a team we can scam knife catchers
3) All we have to do is hang around together and convince ourselves that everything will be okay, and it will be okay
4) If I can’t sell enough houses, I’ve already got my porn name and gimmick figured out. Linda Leverage, porn star for bankers and hedgies.
Al,
All that tells ‘me’ is that The Cartel is now attempting to operate under the radar through old school methods of collusion. Of course had they their druthers they’d be making cell calls from a Lexus but in lieu of that, they’ll continue to function as a monopoly ( even if they have to do it like drug dealers in the 70’s )
How wonderful to hear!
“Give me your tired, your poor houses,
Your huddled masses of GF yearning to breathe free,
The wretched Fools to our teeming door.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I have my Camp beside the golden whore”
“Sorry Lady Liberty
Here’s my Card”
Hilarious.
I checked some listings this morning in my area, am stunned at what I’m seeing. Two houses next door to each other, I posted about them a few months back. One rehab, one new. They were both about 30 per cent above a reasonable price then.
Same houses today:
rehab reduced ten percent, new house next door INCREASED about eight per cent. Prices for land still in the stratosphere.
Meantime, condos are in a range from around the same to ten or so per cent below when I first started looking two and one half years ago. I have to say I am impressed with the amount of money these owners have to throw away on the care and feeding of their alligator. Many sellers in my area clearly are still hoping for that big kill, don’t know when reality will surface in these parts. It seems to be a very slow erosion.
(Similar to the price -stickiness referenced in the Indiana piece.)
Number 4 is my favorite
Is anyone going to rip that rug off of Geithner’s head any time soon?
Hey, that cabbage patch look is the new rave!
“with Forest Park up 108 percent” Wow, just since 2000? Looks to me like those areas need a stern @$$ whip’n.
I love how they present that as proof that values won’t fall further, even though it actually proves that there is a lot more air left in the bubble.
Proof of that (further price declines to come) is in the volume.
Yay for low interest rates
I moved from Tucson to OKC a few years ago. After selling my place there at a 90% profit I bought a place here in Oklahoma for about what I sold the place in AZ and rolled the profits into it. Got a much bigger/nicer place as OKC is not exactly a hot metro area.
I bought the place in OKC for $395k and with the booming oil prices last year OKC actually has held up pretty well. Rates went low enough that I was able to refi into a 15-year for basically the same payment as my current 30-year. (from 150k @ 6.125/30 to 130k @ 4.375/15).
As part of a re-fi the bank wanted to do a full appraisal and it came back at $419k, representing 5% growth over the last two years. I was surprised and think that’s probably higher than I’d list at if I wanted to sell today, but in any case this neighborhood in this part of this city is not seeimg much in the way of RE value declines. There are a few for sale in the ‘hood so we’ll see if they sell or what they get for them.
The LTV on the new loan is like 30% so the appraiser had no real motivation to “hit a number”. Rates have since moved up nearly a full point, so if anything the bank would probably have liked him to scuttle the deal.
When I bought I was roundly thrashed here for being an idiot. I could have bought a vastly inferior house and put the proceeds into a CD and made a bit more, but if I had put that money into stocks it would have been a disaster. If I were to actually sell for 419k today the 250k I put into the house would have performed better than the money in my IRA, even after taxes and RE transaction costs. So far I’m not really regretting the move.
I may yet see drops in valuation (if the recession crashes oil and natural gas OKC will take some lumps) but I’ve got a super affordable payment for the next 15 years and then own the place free and clear. I’ve made good money the past three years but at this point even if I take a big pay cut I don’t have to worry about making the nut. If I manage to have a few more good years of work (hah!) I may be able to pay it off even sooner.
I certainly am better off than if I had stayed in Tucson. That place has plummeted in value. I sold it for 385k and zillow now thinks it’s worth less than 275k. My wife and I do kind of miss AZ and hopefully vacation property there will fall back into affordability. Last time I looked at Mt. Lemmon realty prices were through the roof. When I can get a nice cabin in the mountains for something like 100k I’ll be all over that…
How was anyone here wrong? When you say you sold your old place “a few years ago” you may as well be talking about a different planet? Yes, things have changed ‘that’ much.
Moving and buying a place in East Jesus, Cornbelt is an option than any one of us could have considered ( and many still do ) As far as what’s occured in the stock market, nice rearview mirror investing!
Really, the only thing I see worth “bragging” about is that we shaped your opinion to the point where you didn’t consider “hanging on to your old house” ( as RE only goes up right? ) Re-play your scenario w/ that in the mix and let us know how it would’ve worked out?
Sorry I should have specified. I sold the place in AZ in August 2006 and bought the new one in October.
Sorry if I sounded abrasive or gloating. I’ve learned a lot from reading this blog though in the past year it has turned into a bit of an echo chamber. Tale-of-woe followed by more tale-of-woe and “look at those idiots” over and over again. There’s still some good discussion but I don’t read it as often these days.
I posted mainly because buying a house in 2006 has (so far) worked out pretty well for me. The drop in interest rates went in my favor. A definite counterpoint to most of the stories reported here.
Ex-Arizonan,
Hey don’t get me wrong, I’m tickled for you! A truly rare success story. My point is that during that time you’d -have- to be migrating in that direction for the model to have worked.
Reverse the scenario and you’re in a black hole.
Nice couple w/ 2.3 kids moves from God fearin’ conservative midwest town and sells their long held primary ( and only ) residence. Mostly “paid in” equity. Moves to Tucson/FL/LV/SoCal/? and equity evaporates within minutes of their arrival! What’s worse is that now your 17 y.o daughter is getting text msgs. from a 28 y.o guy who’s Myspace page shows him as a self-described “promoter”!
You did the right thing, be happy.
Actually, that “move from Midwest town to SoCal/Arizona/Florida” move hasn’t happened much in the last ten years (at least among people who owned homes in the midwest).
I personally know of a dozen families that had job offers/opportunities to transfer to SoCal or SFO…….but refused the transfer/job offer, because the pay increase didn’t come CLOSE to covering the difference in house prices (either purchasing or renting) between the Midwest and the Bubble areas. They were better off quitting and taking a pay cut at a new job, instead of accepting the transfer.
Believe it or not, some people can still do math.
What’s going to be interesting is what happens to the flyover market when prices in the bubble areas drop to historically afffordable prices. Assuming anyone in the civilian economy has a job in the next few years……
X-GSfixer,
Right, and important math ( not like figuring out your share of the tip? ) If it’s alright w/ everyone else can we spare the obligatory “they bloom where they are planted” post so oft applied to midwesterners?
Additionally, if they apply themselves, that pay cut should only be temporary. Who knows, in the end the MW might wind up being the beneficiary of having talent and resources re-locate back there as more and more folks take an interest in “math”?
Is East Jesus, Cornbelt, somewhere near Bend?
I don’t think they grow corn in Oklahoma, wheat seems to be the crop of choice.
Wheat…..cotton……too dry and hot for corn.
And awesome watermelons……something about that red dirt. Try to find someone who grows/sells “Black Diamonds” if you want a REAL watermelon.
(Family has been farming in S. Oklahoma since the 1880s)
My dad would agree. He missed the watermelons from the mid west.
Oklahoma passed a law making watermelon the official state vegetable, although it’s actually a fruit.
East Jesus, lol. No offense, but I would never fit there.
Tucson’s housing market isn’t that good, Ex. Lots of properties just sitting here, with “For Sale” signs creaking in the wind. Many end up on the rental market, where, guess what, there’s an SFR glut.
Arizona Slim,
Right, I don’t have a -thing- against Ex-Arizonan and all of this played out well for them… but only in retrospect! Let’s talk about the -other- 99.999% that didn’t fare so well?
Given most Plains States have stagnant/declining pop. & employment ( just how many of us were supposed to be ‘that’ fortunate? ) In virtually ever-other-possible-scenario, having sold in ‘05 and moving to practically any other market ( that -has- employment! ) resulted in disaster. Oh and “should have gone to cash” is -always- the obvious answer when looking back at a stock market correction.
Well I guess life is full of tradeoffs. We loved living in Tucson but by 2005 I was trying to figure out how to profit from the wildly escalating value in our house. When a chance came to cash out and move here (family, job, etc) my prayers were answered.
BUT the food isn’t as good here
I still miss El Charro. Have you ever tried the Huevos Rancheros at the Tohono Chul tea room? Best I’ve had anywhere. Our first apartment in TUS was within walking distance of St. Philips plaza back when Cafe Terra Cotta was still there. We still make one of their recipes from time to time. “Mexican Food” here in OKC tends to mean “Lots of sour cream and cheap guacamole”.
We lived out on the west side, about a mile west of Silverbell just south of Grant. Any idea how that area is doing? I haven’t been back out to the ‘hood in like 2 years now.
Sorry to say, but Cafe Terra Cotta moved away from St. Philip’s and, from what I’ve heard, things kinda went downhill after that. To the point that they’ve just gone out of business.
$385k in OK city? Oh me, oh my…
Yah, I mean, really…
“$385k in OK city? Oh me, oh my…”
Bingo Bantering Bear. Areas in OK were some of the most affordable during the bubble and I use the term affordable very loosely. 18 months into the crash somebody admits to paying that kind of $$$ in Frog Balls, Oklahoma and then suggests it’s worth even more? I view this with great skepticism.
I’ll wager this…. This guy won’t finder a buyer at that price for at least a decade.
“I may yet see drops in valuation (if the recession crashes oil and natural gas OKC will take some lumps) but I’ve got a super affordable payment for the next 15 years and then own the place free and clear. ”
Seems to me that the time to declare success is when home-prices have actually stopped declining in your area. Talk to me in a few years.
And if you’re going to compute how well you did against a hypothetical stock-market portfolio, how about also comparing how you did against against renting? Again, that comparison will be more interesting when prices have actually bottomed.
My guess is still that you will come out way behind renting. And if I’m right, that means your super affordable payment could have been even more affordable down the road.
It seems like an odd day to brag about how solid OKC RE is.
“In Oak Park, the average sale price for single-family homes in 2008 was $484,749 — down $41,000 (-8.5 percent) from 2007, according to an industry report. In River Forest, the average sale price dropped a shade below 2 percent, from $918,405 to $901,275.”
No bubble in the Midwest? HAH!!!
Bantering Bear,
Normally I would have added “so much for midwestern sensibility?” but it just seemed like so much over kill.
We bought a new home in 96 in Northern Indiana - the subdivision backed up to the Michigan state line for 203k. Sold it in 98 for 230k. It sold in 2005 for 560k. No bubble in the midwest? BS.
‘We simply want to be upfront with the facts. The truth is that Oak Park, River Forest and Forest Park have all fared relatively well. This is a strong market and there’s no question that it will absolutely remain that way.’”
Well, just a second, cowboy. You’re forgetting MY question. My question is, what are you going to do to make money down the road when prices have collapsed on Oak Park, River Forest, and Forest Park? Are you going to issue apologies to burnt buyers for a living? Or do you just plan to go into hiding?
Let’s be upfront with the fact:
You’re in a collapsing market, and there is no doubt it will absolutely remain that way.
Well, he’s right in the sense that Oak Park, River Forest and Forest Park are all highly desirable suburbs — good location, good housing stock, good amenities, good schools. They should hold their value much better than later, less established, less centrally located suburbs.
You are absolutely right about the big picture, however.
Ah, it’s been a while, but can’t pass up commenting on my hometown.
It’s a mess over here like everywhere else. Nothing is moving, # of sales are down 40%. At least. River Forest is odd for a real small suburb (15K) in that you do have some ridiculously big and expensive houses in the north, both cheap and expensive condos on the Lake Street corridor, and more modest older homes in the south part. So an “average” price is totally useless. You still have the occasional 1-2 million dollar house sold but those are few and far in between. In the po’ side of town where I live, nothing is moving. And frankly, nothing is for sale, people have taken houses off the market and are sitting tight. A few foreclosures on the housing stock here and there. An 80 year old house, maybe 3 br, 1.5 baths, no central air would have went for upper 500K 2 years ago. Not so anymore, and those same houses are on sale for upper 400s now. And not selling. On top of that, we had some pretty widespread (and widely-reported) flooding in September in houses that were within a few blocks of the Des Plaines River–we’ve been in ours for 8 years and never had water until this time.
Crime in Oak Park has always been a bit higher than the norm, but it’s been real bad the last few months. The eastern edge borders on the Chicago neighborhood of Austin which is a mess.
Forest Park is a bit more reasonable in terms of prices, but its major flaw is that the schools are icky. Good place to rent a condo if you’re young and hang out on the Madison bar corridor, but not so much for families.
Anyhoo, I forget who always flames me about claiming that there was a bubble in Chicagoland as well (jas?) but in my eyes we’re down at least 20% in median price since 06. I can’t believe (well, no, I can believe) that the sun-times article used average price instead of median. No, not as bad as Nevada, AZ, CA, but bubblicious nevertheless.
Anyhoo, I forget who always flames me about claiming that there was a bubble in Chicagoland as well (jas?) but in my eyes we’re down at least 20% in median price since 06.
Well, it sure ain’t anyone who actually lives here or grew up here — we’ve seen it with our own eyes. Bubble, speculation, greedhead developers, condos out the wazoo … we have or had all the ingredients, too.
As far as Oak Park goes, isn’t most of that crime right along the Austin corridor? The rest seems pretty safe to me — though the only time I’ve ever been robbed was when I lived in Oak Park.
Yep, most of the crime is just on the east side, but I’m seeing more and more of it moving west, at least based on the Wednesday Journal weekly reports. There’s a police station on Madison a bit east of Austin and there was an article last week about the increased drug activity going on right in front of the station.
As you go further west it does diminish pretty rapidly.
shoot, i meant the op police station a few blocks west of austin
“The listing for one property, whose owners are seeking $796,000, boasted a recent $200,000 price reduction.”
“Lucas County delinquent property-tax rolls include a $1.1 million estate”……
“a California woman who came here to start a business, bought a $1.1 million house, and returned to the West Coast when the business failed to pan out.”
This is outside the bustling metropolis of Toledo, Ohio, people, 25 minutes down the road from me. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
How insane.
Holy Toledo.
“He bought the house last year from the mortgage-holder after a foreclosure. It is the former residence of John Ulmer, who faces trial next month on charges of fraud and racketeering.”
FYI, John Ulmer was HUGE in the real estate investing and seminar world for many years. Especially huge in/around Toledo. He was a protege’ and/or associate of real estate guru Ron LeGrand (who’s out of Jacksonville) and could be heard on some of LeGrand’s seminar tapes touting how great real estate investing is, anybody can do it, buy our tapes, blah blah blah.
“Local assessors said these figures are misleading because they include foreclosures, family sales, sales done under duress and estate sales, which assessors can’t use. Assessors can only base their assessments on sales done freely in the open market.”
So refresh my market on foreclosures again. They’re not done freely on the open market? How are they sold then, under duress on the black market? How do I get in on this action? Do I get to point a gun at anyone when I’m buying? The banks aren’t allowed to market the properties freely in any market or manner they see fit?
We recently visited an “estate sale” it was priced $40,000 more than a nicer house with a bigger yard two blocks away. The nicer house never sold either.
A foreclose sale is absoultely an open market transaction. Just because the seller has a huge loss doesn’t change the fact that it’s open market. Anyone can bid, the price is public, and the bidding process is totally open. That’s what defines open market.
This not including foreclosures in tax assessments is just criminal, I hope someone forms a class and sues these b**tards. Frankly, what would have made more sense is not including ANY sales from 2002-2007 in the value calculation. That was a much less “real” value then all these foreclosures. At least the people buying today are actually using their money, not taking a flier with the bank’s cash.
There is a pretty good argument, imo, that it is inconsistent to compare a foreclosure-type purchase with a “normal” transaction for the purposes of estimating market price. The argument IMO stems from a difference in information. In a normal transaction, the buyer has the option to fully evaluate (inspect) the property before buying.
In a foreclosure (at least in Arkansas) that is not the case. So generally one would expect the same place in the same condition to sell for less in a foreclosure auction than in a typical sale due to a risk discount.
In Colorado they’re put on the MLS and shown by an agent. They try to stick you with an “as is” clause, but you can write anything you want into your offer it’s not a contract until both sides agree to terms. Any seller can stick to the “as-is” condition it just means the buyer is likely to walk if the inspection finds more than lint and dust.
Construction work has been temporarily suspended on the Park Lafayette condominium towers on Milwaukee’s east side, the project’s developer said today
The work stopped because of delays in refinancing the project’s construction loan, said developer Warren Barr, president of Renaissant Development Group LLC. Turmoil in the credit markets has caused the delay, Barr said. The refinancing, which is being done because of the project’s increased costs, should be completed soon, he said.
The suspension is not expected to significantly delay the project, Barr said. The first condo units should be available for their buyers by the end of February or the first week of March, he said, with the entire project completed by June.
The 291-unit development, featuring twin 20-story towers, is at N. Prospect Ave. and E. Lafayette Place.
“These are unique times in the financial markets,” Barr said. “In normal markets, this would never have been an issue.”
What an idiot ! “normal markets” Ha ha This isn’t Condo Fever…It’s the PLAGUE !
GF, FB and trapped flippers are trying to BAIL OUT of these over-priced, gerbil cage condos all over the Milwaukee and 5 surrounding counties. He ONLY needs 291 Certified Fools when they are they are on the TOP of America’s Endangered Species LIST !
http://www.jsonline.com/business/39374907.html
I was referring to the foreclosure auctions.
After the bank owns it and sells it, I agree its a “legitimate” sale for comparison purposes at that point.
Excellent article on CNBC about how MTG mods reward bad behavior. I couldn’t agree more!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29120681
Michael Fink,
Some rather rare candor from Michelle Caruso Cabrera! Good for her. I was talking to a client and ‘he’ felt that for anything to be fair going forward, it would have to be an approach that was extended to ALL citizens so…
If you’re upside down on a loan you never could afford in the 1st place, well then the dollars you would have otherwise been able to spend as you see fit will go to fill that hole! More responsible people would get the benefit in that tax break/cash/whatever does not have to go toward feeding debt. I think that’s fair enough?
That bullsh@t really pisses me off.You basically reward losers.
Roubini supports that too, said so e.g. in interview in German mag (focus) yesterday - “reduce principal by a third”. Interviewer just went yaya and no one asked ‘what is a contract if not a contract’.
How about the govt just give every new buyer 1/3 of the price too then? We’re looking at houses right now. The Feds just keep giving me good reasons to wait ($15k tax credit maybe sometime soon).
Forwarded the URL, and the quote below, to my congressman via his website.
“More than 90 percent of all mortgage holders are making their payments. And their thanks for doing so? Having the government use their taxpayer dollars to incentive the banks to give a gift to those few who didn’t.”
Not to usurp the Midwest thread, but Calif, sucks to be you.
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE5197Z220090210
Well, there goes plan C.
House was broken into and robbed while I was at work today. Took our Wii, Wii games, a bunch of DVDs, a digital camera, couple pieces of gold jewelry, and…… my guns. All 3.
I’m officially an unarmed target.
Oh, and they took my laptop pc.
That sucks.
Perhaps you should spend the $30 for 3 years and get a “type 03″ curio and relic (i.e. C&R) FFL. Here’s a good site about this:
http://parallaxscurioandrelicfirearmsforums.yuku.com/
You can then purchase older arms for wholesale prices and have them shipped to your house. You should be able to get usable Mausers under $100 and Mosin-Nagants for $50.
I once got a box of FIVE model 1944 Mosin-Nagant carbines for $150 with free shipping. And they all came with the attached bayonet.
Sorry to hear that.
I noticed a few panhandlers around 59th/Bell while I was killing time waiting on a car repair two months ago. Maybe I do not spend much time around north Glendale, but I do not recall that type of activity even five years ago. One guy gave me a legitimate-sounding story that he had to take the bus to get to the downtown Social Security office (as opposed to the Glendale one that does not handle some types of transactions) to get a new SS card. I gave him the benefit of the doubt and handed him two dollars.
Obviously a burglary is more important than this. Hopefully, it is an isolated incident, but I am guessing maybe not.
LA PAZ, Bolivia – A Bolivian woman has died from an injection of urine allegedly administered by her friend as a form of health therapy, a prosecutor said Tuesday. Investigating prosecutor Oscar Flores told The Associated Press that 35-year-old Gabriela Ascarrunz died Saturday of an “infection caused by urine that was injected by fashion designer Monica Schultz.”
Local newspapers reported that Schultz, who is known across Bolivia for her clothing lines, is a practitioner of urine therapy — a form of alternative medicine using human urine for cosmetic purposes or to treat various diseases. Some people rub it on their skin, while others inject or drink it.
Skeptical scientists and physicians say there is no evidence urine treatment works and that chemicals it contains could potentially be toxic.
I couldn’t help but think of the bailout plan when I read this story. Take a toxic waste product that your body has tried to expell and then inject it back into the body??????????????
This one irks me!
My kid tells me thier social studies class watched a movie about how a class collected a paperclip for each person the Nazi’s killed in the holocaust. Well, they want to do something similar, but collect 1 pencil for each teacher that could lose their job in Arizona based on the new budget cuts….. So they need to collect 900 pencils.
WHAT!!!!
1) WTF comparing job loss to being gassed or worked to death?
2) $10 billion state budget:
$4 billion K-12 operaion.
$1 billion K-12 construction.
$1.2 billion universities and community colleges
$1.4 billion healthcare to poor
$.6 other health services
$1 billion corrections
$.8 billion Economic Security
Everything else…. a rounding error.
Okay, you have to cut $1.6 billion from the budget. Go.
Oh, not the whole year. Just the last 5 months of the current fiscal year.
For next fiscal year you have to cut somewhere between $2.5 and $3 trillion.
Sorry schools, but if you have 60% of the budget… You’re going to get a massive cut.
Martin Wolf on the Three i’s of Bailout Policies:
Financial Times
Why Obama’s new Tarp will fail to rescue the banks
By Martin Wolf
Published: February 10 2009 18:06 | Last updated: February 10 2009 18:06
…
The banking programme seems to be yet another child of the failed interventions of the past one and a half years: optimistic and indecisive. If this “progeny of the troubled asset relief programme” fails, Mr Obama’s credibility will be ruined. Now is the time for action that seems close to certain to resolve the problem; this, however, does not seem to be it.
All along two contrasting views have been held on what ails the financial system. The first is that this is essentially a panic. The second is that this is a problem of insolvency.
Under the first view, the prices of a defined set of “toxic assets” have been driven below their long-run value and in some cases have become impossible to sell. The solution, many suggest, is for governments to make a market, buy assets or insure banks against losses. This was the rationale for the original Tarp and the “super-SIV (special investment vehicle)” proposed by Henry (Hank) Paulson, the previous Treasury secretary, in 2007.
Under the second view, a sizeable proportion of financial institutions are insolvent: their assets are, under plausible assumptions, worth less than their liabilities. The International Monetary Fund argues that potential losses on US-originated credit assets alone are now $2,200bn (€1,700bn, £1,500bn), up from $1,400bn just last October. This is almost identical to the latest estimates from Goldman Sachs. In recent comments to the Financial Times, Nouriel Roubini of RGE Monitor and the Stern School of New York University estimates peak losses on US-generated assets at $3,600bn. Fortunately for the US, half of these losses will fall abroad. But, the rest of the world will strike back: as the world economy implodes, huge losses abroad – on sovereign, housing and corporate debt – will surely fall on US institutions, with dire effects.
Personally, I have little doubt that the second view is correct and, as the world economy deteriorates, will become ever more so. But this is not the heart of the matter. That is whether, in the presence of such uncertainty, it can be right to base policy on hoping for the best. The answer is clear: rational policymakers must assume the worst. If this proved pessimistic, they would end up with an over-capitalised financial system. If the optimistic choice turned out to be wrong, they would have zombie banks and a discredited government. This choice is surely a “no brainer”.
The new plan seems to make sense if and only if the principal problem is illiquidity. Offering guarantees and buying some portion of the toxic assets, while limiting new capital injections to less than the $350bn left in the Tarp, cannot deal with the insolvency problem identified by informed observers. Indeed, any toxic asset purchase or guarantee programme must be an ineffective, inefficient and inequitable way to rescue inadequately capitalised financial institutions: ineffective, because the government must buy vast amounts of doubtful assets at excessive prices or provide over-generous guarantees, to render insolvent banks solvent; inefficient, because big capital injections or conversion of debt into equity are better ways to recapitalise banks; and inequitable, because big subsidies would go to failed institutions and private buyers of bad assets.
Why then is the administration making what appears to be a blunder? It may be that it is hoping for the best. But it also seems it has set itself the wrong question. It has not asked what needs to be done to be sure of a solution. It has asked itself, instead, what is the best it can do given three arbitrary, self-imposed constraints: no nationalisation; no losses for bondholders; and no more money from Congress. Yet why does a new administration, confronting a huge crisis, not try to change the terms of debate? This timidity is depressing. Trying to make up for this mistake by imposing pettifogging conditions on assisted institutions is more likely to compound the error than to reduce it.