Countdown To Las Vegas - Day 2
The documentary film crew will be doing interviews with HBB attendants on Saturday the 21st in our meeting room. They want to allott about 30 minutes per person, and asked if we could schedule groups for the morning and the afternoon. For those who will be there, please start considering if you want to be interviewed, and what you want to say.
This last bit got me to thinking. This film or even just these interviews might be seen years from now; possibly decades or more. I started thinking about what I would want to convey to a listener far down the road, when the news of early 2009 isn’t so fresh or relevant. What housing bubble views do you want to put down for posterity? And for those who won’t be able to make it, what would you suggest?
Hi All:
I have a special favor to ask of either attendees or a really nice poster.
We need to do badges for the meeting and I’d like to do something a little creative with them (probably using the blog colors.) Unfortunately I have no creative abilities at all. Is there anyone who could help out with some background designs?
I have MS Publisher and Word and an HP Laserjet 2600 which does good color printing but not professional quality.
If you can help out can you post below or e-mail me at sd.re.b at hotmail dot com?
Thanks so much!
Will there also be a little lapel pin shaped like a mortgage brokers head on a stick also available? ‘Cause I’d like to order a gross, if so.
No, but it seems like an opportunity for some entrepreneur out there. Go for it.
I’m thinking of selling bloodstained Century 21 jackets.
*ponder*
Who donates the blood? :O
Who said the “donation” would be voluntary?
You’re not a cop, are you?
If I were I would look questioningly at anyone sitting around in their underwear with frogs in each hand.
‘If I were I would look questioningly at anyone sitting around in their underwear with frogs in each hand.’
Add a bottle of whiskey, and you got my ‘Dream Man’ scenario! Yes, baybee, yes!… Amphibians!…Strong spirits! …
Oooops. Oh, my.
* Opens eyes and sits up in chair, hoping no one noticed that little episode *
Too bad your dream man’s gonna be in Vegas stroking frogs in a bar (which is legal in Vegas), while you’re sitting alone in Washington licking the hapless amphibians that wander by.
It’s like Romeo and Juliet if Lewis Carroll was writing it. Sniff.
‘…while you’re sitting alone in Washington licking the hapless amphibians that wander by.’
You make it sound like that’s a bad thing. Actually, that IS a bad thing.
Thanks a LOT for rubbing it in, SD RE Bear!
* Frowny face! Sad face! Then the frowny face again! *
“What housing bubble views do you want to put down for posterity? And for those who won’t be able to make it, what would you suggest?”
I will state for the record in this documentary that i was a ground level eyewitness observer of the LA housing bubble runup and collapse from 2004-2007. I have been all over LA and much of SCal as a professional driver and have been thru every LA inner city ghetto zip , and seen houses in those ghettos selling for half a million or more at the peak in early 2007.
If U wonder at all those bad loans on the bank books figure out they could loan a half million on a 100 year old rotted piece of crap in Pacoima or Compton back in 2007 .
I have written 100’s of long posts on Bens blog dealing with the rise and fall of LA real estate which would fill a small book. A few i have saved but most are buried deep in B
ben’s archives going back last 4 years. These are long min- essays, not just typical blog chat. here is one example:”
“Very few have been out to all these ghetto hoods to actually see the ramsnackle century- old crackshacks in graffitied slums selling for 1/2 million or more in impoverished illegal-alien packed slumzones where average household income is $45,000-50,000 at most(real, not stated liar incomes)
These are just three chosen slumzips to give an example:there are hundreds of slumzone zips like these all over LA county. I looked at data for home prices/ sales in many of these slumzones last 2 years and have been thru many of these hoods.
In Pacoima 91331 i saw homes selling for $500,000+ and a few listed as high as 3/4 of a million. Pacoima is one of the worst slums areas of the east SVF and a hotzone for RE fraudulent activity.
Lennox 90304(Inglewood/lax area) is one of nastiest blighted slumburgs in LA yet i saw ton’s of teardown/refurbished quick fix & flip 2/1,s going for $450,00-500,000 as late as last june.
LA zip 90011 which is directly south of LA dwtn is a real nasty polluted inner LA ghetto zip within earshot of dwtn. Median prices here averaged close to 1/2 mil in mid-2007. There was so much dumping and polluting in this hood, as with most of the ghetto hoods i’ve been thru, that it could have been declared an EPA superfund site.”
Have fun in Vegas everyone!
I did some Looney Toon badges (various characters… Daffy, Road Runner, Wiley E Coyote) for Neil’s Pasadena Popcorn HBB party, if you want I can print out some more…just use a sharpie to write names…let me know.!
You guys are brave. If the NAR finds out about this event and worse all those that this blog has saved. For those that saw the movie “Mouse Hunt” do you remember when the workers of the string factory organized? I shudder to think of what could happen.
“As she works on packing up her home it looks like the tax credit won’t make it into the stimulus package, but brokers say hope is not lost and there are still plenty of reasons to buy.
‘Regardless of the tax credit, I do believe that Las Vegas right now, maybe not the nation as a whole, but Las Vegas right now is a good time to buy,’ said Nolf.
Ragan says owning a home is worth it, even without the credit. With low interest rates and low prices, she says now is still a good time to buy.”
http://www.lasvegasnow.com/Global/story.asp?S=9831709
Just make it look like a blog page, with an advertisement on the right bar and everything.
That’s actually a really clever idea! Just waaaaaay beyond my pathetic graphic skills.
But make sure they are fake ads - like “HBB RE broker - it isn’t a good time to buy,” “HBB mortgage broker - Qualifying for a loan is hard,” or “HBB real estate appraiser - Sorry, the comps don’t support that number.”
TMJ4 TV News and Milwaukee got all over this. Associated Bank says it has cancelled the BAILOUT Money Party as of this noon.
Associated Bank plans its own fiesta after bailout party
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel JSOnline
Posted: Feb. 11, 2009
Associated Bank is moving from the welfare line to the conga line.
Just three months ago, the state’s second-largest bank joined scores of other troubled lenders when it cashed a check for $525 million from the federal government to prop up its bottom line.
Today, Associated is preparing to drop tens of thousands of dollars - and maybe more - to send about 100 employees to a posh Puerto Rican resort as a reward for a job well done.
The lucky staffers at the Green Bay-based bank are slated to leave Wednesday and fly to the El Conquistador Resort & Golden Door Spa in San Juan, Puerto Rico, returning Feb. 22.
The resort, with rooms that run up to $450 per night, touts its 100-acre private island; 18-hole golf course, complete with waterfall; private marina; Parisian day spa; children’s water park; and 10,000-square-foot Caribbean casino.
And there’s more.
“Members of the Star Performers will be treated to an adventuresome getaway that includes ATV adventures, tours of Old and New San Juan, coastal kayaking, golf and an awards ceremony in the El Yunque Rainforest,” said an internal Associated Bank memo. “Congratulations to all of our winners for their dedication to Achieving Excellence in sales and services
http://www.jsonline.com/watchdog/noquarter/39476367.html
How come Ben isn’t treating us all to a similar party?
Huh, Ben? What gives?
Vegas is a lot better, IMO.
Toga party in Vegas! Can’t beat that!
fck fck fck.. this kind of stuff really upsets me!!! Someone MUST demand this money back asap
I’ve been monitoring sales figures for pitchforks, torches and axe handles and the masses have not yet been moved by this blatant and tremendous ripoff. I guess the comfort threshold has not yet been crossed.
The estate of Lester Maddox must have a warehouse of signed ax handles, maybe cornering the market early (but for different reasons).
DIsclosure: Yes, Lester was wrong.
When can we talk about the new govt subsidised mortgage payments?
Hey yea, Obama is hashing out a program now to help troubled homeowners pay their mortgage payment. I shoulda bought a house and now I would get a free ride. Too bad, Hope all you folks that voted for Obama are happy now. We are all going pay up so the few can keep their overpriced digs. Socialism:: ain’t it sweet. With the 1 billion Acorn gets out of the “stimulus” bill, they can identify the needy homeowners.
And this relates to the Vegas meeting how?
Now, now, don’t be minatory, SD RE bear, maybe he/she/it just needs to vent.
But yeah, though, it’s true—SickofFL? This * here* is the fun and cheery and ‘planning the party’ thread, not the ‘Bitter Florida Dweller’ thread. Jeeze, we’d need lotttttts more room for a ‘Bitter Florida Dweller’ thread.
Sigh….I wish I was going to the meetup, instead of stuck here cajoling retards.
I hope everyone takes loads of photos and movies, so I can see them.
Can’t you fly out just for the day, Oly?
really, Oly, the airfares are so dang cheap right now.
Do a last minute hook up with SW or someone else to LV.
I have never seen airfares so low. In fact, the Delta CEO,
says psgrs are not buying tickets like they did 1 yr ago. He won’t fly half full planes..but I am sure he will take his bonus..while laying off folks after they joined up with NW.
Anyway, Oly, check out SW.
RE: Obama is hashing out a program now to help troubled homeowners pay their mortgage payment. I shoulda bought a house and now I would get a free ride.
WSJ ran a blurb that the program will include a direct payment to the mortgage lender from the Treasury for the difference in what the current owner can “afford” to pay and the current note.
Kinda like the rent subsidies the Section 8 crowd get.
Previously forecasted right here on the HBB.
Constitutional?
O’ Bamie Boy don’t need to show you no stinkin’ Constitution.
Obama’s mortgage help is nothing compared to what McCain would have done. Very few people will be saved by this. It’s only for people who actually have some hope of ever paying off the loan in a profitable manner.
So, the layoffs in my company finally took place yesterday. They removed about a third of all engineers I work with; thankfully, I was not one of them.
Something I found interesting is the fact that about 75% of all H1-B employees were laid off; I don’t know if there is an actual reason behind it, but I wonder if other companies are doing the same.
At least in my company, H1-B employees got paid at the same level as US employees; thus, keeping foreign workers would be more expensive when you take into account all the lawyer & immigration fees.
Also, there are no minority members within my office anymore.. yay! It’s all white men, some white women, and I couple of US-born asian & indian guys. The only minorities work in the front desk, cafeteria and the janitors.
Obviously, in management’s infinite wisdom, they have preserved their best and brightest!
Simply, dumbstruck.
I need a favor from an attendee:
I would like to email you the MP3 of the collage I am doing, you will burn it to CD and give to Ben. Maybe you can play it at the conference or during the tour?
You can send it to me Muggy if standard MS Office and normal Dell software will do whatever you need. (Or I-Tunes.) I just don’t have any specialized software of any sort. E-mail me if I can help out sd.re.b at hotmail dot com Otherwise post below what you need so the right individual can help you.
Looking forward to it!
If you have iTunes, it’ll work. Dude, does your Dell have a CD-r?
Dudette please.
Yes, I can burn CD’s and DVD’s. Didn’t say I can burn them well, usually there’s a half hour of cussing involved, but if I can get it to I-Tunes and it’s audio materials I can burn it. Worst case I’ll put it on a travel drive and hand it to him.
I’m an expert at burning objectionable things to removable media. So if San Diego RE Bear has troubles you can always forward the link to me thru her, if need be.
“I’m an expert at burning objectionable things to removable media.”
How many beers will it take to get the stories behind that?
Last call from samples for the song for Ben. I need all the NAR chestnuts you can think of. Anything!
I’m assuming the “Suzanne researched this” soundtrack is in there?
Oh yeah.
That was great Muggy! We’ll enjoy having a sing-along (or chant along) with it at the meeting.
Muggy,
Did anyone submit Elvis singing Viva Las Vegas?
Last night I dreamt I sneaked into the las vegas meeting and everybody was wearing a stretchy slinky turquoise outfit. the ladies looked great. I wonder what it meant?
That you’s psychic. Or else you got a really super bad sartorial sense. I mean, a ’stretchy turquoise outfit’? I always wear whatever I feel like, and I like to stretch the definition of ‘decent attire’ as far as it goes, and even IIIIII don’t have a ’stretchy turquoise outfit’.
I’m starting to doubt your commitment to sparkle motion.
HAhahahahahaa! Funny!
How about something like this here number on a certain WKRP alum?
It’s not Sparkle Motion, but it’s pretty rad in a over-the-top-turquoise-in-yr.-face kinda way.
Tell me if you see her at the meeting. if anybody is in an aqua room, let me know.
If this has already been requested, then mea culpa. Could there be a simulcast of the meetings(s) for those of us than cannot attend?
Tx,
Roidy
The turquoise represents Ben Jones and the 24 people in aqua jerseys are the attendees.
I guess I should schedule an appointment to get my wig done ahead of time.
Pearsey, stop fronting. I already know you’re not going to Vegas because you can’t fly and it’s too difficult to figure out how to get you on the plane. Jeesh.
But seriously Ben, can you let me know whether I’m getting interviewed? I’ll get my hair and makeup done.
-V
Lot’s of sleep and no alcohol is the best beauty treatment, but hair always needs a reshaping!
duck duck goose.
‘Lot’s of sleep and no alcohol is the best beauty treatment…’
That’s the Worst. Advice. I. Ever. Heard.
Serious.
* looks up at reflection in big dark window. Nods approvingly *
Well, you may want something for posterity, but if you want to rub it in:
In Germany, reckless lending in all its colorful variations is unknown. Refresher course, that article about WaMu in the NYT in December.
German financial media in the beginning (end of 07) told their readers that an asset backed security is really fully, 100 % backed by an asset that can be turned into cash any time.
The idea of buying a house just like that, and not even give a second thought to the thousands of $s of UHS fees - not imaginable.
Contracts are done by lawyers (am I right guys?). They cost very little. They have three pages for a SFH. (am i right guys? )
Buying a house and not examine the quality of construction, just not thinkable. They don’t look at the finish, they look what’s under it.
The concept of the HOA, unthinkable. Would never be accepted there. Would not be possible.
Homeprices is one’s own business (am i right guys?) Do German neighbours stop talking because one of them lowered price by ten grand? No. They do fight about a fence that’s half an inch off, though.
The part played by illegal immigrant labor.
The complete lack of concern Americans had about fuel consumption, moving out into the exurbs. (Still do).
The American concept of needing a three story villa with fifty parking spots just to sell some coffee, and not even have a bakery on site. And another one, as large, that sells nothing but soup for lunch. The paving it all over mentality.
I wish I could make it to Vegas. Oh well, I don’t have much screen presence, and my footage would probably get left on the cutting room floor.
If I were to appear in a documentary I’d talk about how, when I started off in the working world, there was a typing pool at my company. Each department had a secretary who answered the phone, did typing herself, and sent and received faxes. People were walking around with 25, 30 and even 40-year pins.
Within a short time, it all disappeared. The way people bought and sold things changed radically and the way people communicated changed radically. Ever since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, technological improvements closed some opportunities, while opening others.
Not this time. The late 20th Century stock market bubble, and the early 21st Century credit bubble delayed America’s adaptation to this new age we found ourselves in. As a society, we have lost 10 or 15 years goofing around, day trading dot-coms, flipping houses, and selling worthless debt instruments to foreigners.
All this talk about “foreclosure prevention” or “putting a floor under housing prices” is merely code for turning back the clock. The future is unknown, and the unknown is too scary to contemplate.
Anyway, that’s what I’d say.
Good post. However, it makes me sad and discouraged, so I believe I’ll go back to staring approvingly at my reflection in this here big dark window I got handy.*
*No, this’s not some sort of obscure philosophical analogy. It’s late night here and I just happen to have a big dark black window facing me here as I type, and I look cute and unsad in it.
Although, speaking of obscure analogies, this reminds me of the time that I walked down to the beach, this’s Totten Inlet, and arranged myself picturesquely on the round grey pebbles and had someone take a picture of me in black and white, while Death sat there in a cloak and waited to play chess with me as soon as I got up. I forget the movie, though, because this was like 3 years ago. What was it, Ingmar Berman whossname, anyone know the movie? You know, the lengthy one!
I remember I lost at least 3 chess pieces on the walk back.
Hey! Where DID those photos go, anyway!?
Ah, fer Chrissakes! They’s probly on the internet somewhere, in some sort of nasty site, even if I did have my clothes on, mostly.
Olympiagal–Movie you’re thinking of is Bergman– “Seventh Seal”
Thank you! Gonna go put it in my Netflix queue right now.
What I’d say to the interviewer:
*I always thought I’d own a house by this point in my life.
*I would have “settled down” and bought 5 years ago, but low interest rates and lax lending standards pushed the prices out of reach.
*I _would_ be able to buy in a couple years, if the housing market was allowed to correct itself.
*I’m expecting another 5 years of renting before housing gets affordable again, thanks to existing [and likely future] government housing market distortions, aka stimulus.
*I’m happy I’m mortgage free.
*I’m happy I got lucky with a rental that I’ve been able to stay in for 11 years, but that can’t last forever.
My bubble timeline:
1997 Whee! New to town, I’ll rent until I know where I want to live.
1999 I love it here! I’ll buy when I have a downpayment; hopefully interest rates will have risen and prices will go back down.
2003 WTF, how is everyone making so much more than me?
2004 Oh, they’re paying interest only and not putting anything down. Hah, I’ll buy when they default.
2005 Yay, interest rates going up!
2006 Crap; banks are just sitting on foreclosed homes, not dropping the price to get ‘em sold.
2007 Ah, banks are insolvent, that’s why they won’t sell houses at market. Well, the banks have to let ‘em go sometime.
2008 Crap, the government won’t let the banks fail. They’ll pour our money in and try to default on our debt through devaluing the dollar. Time to put my downpayment money in foreign currency? Not Europe, they’re in the same boat, or worse.
2009 Hmmm; the hyperconsumer house of cards is falling in slow motion. Still not sure how to end up on top of the pile.
Excellent post, snowbiker!
I imagine many of us had the same experience WRT the 1999-2007 timeframe. None of it made any sense at all.
2003 WTF, how is everyone making so much more than me?
Ha! I was in the same place, thinking “Does everybody have rich parents except for me?” I’d see these just married couples or folks younger than me buying houses and “WTF” was my reaction, too.
(apologies if this is a double post/spotty connection here in stormy N.Cal tonight)
If I saw the bright lights of the documentary crew I’d probably launch into full “Fred G. Sanford” mode w/Sinatra tune & soft shoe routine!
..I started thinking about what I would want to convey to a listener far down the road, when the news of early 2009 isn’t so fresh or relevant…
I’d first convey emapthy for what i imagine will be the horrid state of affairs they find themselves in..
Then I’d tell them that money is a tool. Money is time. Money is food and shelter. Money is power. Money is an escape artist. Money is a viscious pit bull. Money is a sweet smelling rose. Money is a weapon. Money is freedom. Money is a ball and chain. Money is a joker. Money can lift you up or bury you..
Money is what gives strength to the people of all societies, no matter what political and/or economic system may be in use. Money is a lot of things, good, bad and indifferent.
Money directly impacts all parts of your life whether you have a little, a lot, or none.
So, first learn about it. Then teach your children everything about it. Overcome what is sure to be powerful opposition and make economics studies a requirement in all schools, at all levels. Teach everyone where money comes from, where it goes, what it does and doesn’t do, what it can and can’t do, and how to use and control money.
Any society generally ignorant of and complacent about money puts itself at severe risk and will eventually find it to be their cruel, arbitrary and heavy-handed captor.
My dream is to retire to a place where the local high school will let me teach a course on money. I’d do it for free.
IMHO, the #1 rule would be to stay out of debt.
The #2 rule would be to keep your fixed costs as low as possible. This enables you to adhere to rule #1.
I hope you get to do that Refugee. If you don’t find a H.S., consider other venues like church youth groups, the YMCA or a junior college.
R/E Refugee:
I swear, I woke myself up this morning at no later than 5 a.m. with the same thoughts, (not retiring, but teaching kids about money). I was a credit manager/analyst/bill collector before I became a house frau and worry about my children falling into financial traps as the people I used to have to call. I was even thinking elementary/middle school is not too early to teach children to live within their means and stay away from plastic. The kids around here definitely need that message, judging by all the nipped/tucked, Hummer-driving, Starbucks-sipping bimbos in residence.
Amen, Amen, Amen.
…want to convey to a listener far down the road…
The simple math, % interest, tax, insurance, cost of house, credit card debt, did not calculate out for my income and the house price. The loan officer said it would but the math just did not support it. Could I tell the peak? Yes, when the first loans started to reset. When will housing prices improve? When unemployment drops. Who will buy the empty houses? Investors who will turn them into rentals for the newly employed who will be reluctant to buy a home.
I think that it would be important to convey to the interviewer several thing:
1. Regardless of the protests from Washington and Wall Street that ‘they never saw it coming’, many folks here did. It actually WAS as plain as the nose on your face when examined in comparison to historical data. Not only was it possible, it was inevitable. They knew it would fall apart, but maybe not how quickly it would implode. If we could see it coming, they could see it coming.
2. Also, the ‘best and brightest’ in Washington and Wall Street are the idiots who GOT us here and then couldn’t possibly see it coming- does anyone REALLY believe that these same idiots now know the way to get us out??
3. First the Bush administration and now Obama’s are trying to stop an erupting volcano by burying it with dump-trucks full of money. It won’t work and they are wasting scarce resources. You can’t cure a heroin addict by giving him another fix and you can’t cure our rampant debt problem by encouraging more people to borrow. We need to do something different, but the government is too frightened to admit, much less encourage it.
4. Obama, like all politicians, talks out of both sides of his face. He rails about the need for more affordable housing and then tries to impliment a plan to stop the decline in housing prices- WTF?
If you look at Obama when he’s giving a speech, he’s moving the left side of his mouth more than his right. I think this may have to do with his handed-ness.
Meaning that he may be so left-handed that whatever he’s doing, the left side of his body is going to be more active. BTW, my mother is extremely left-handed. She has this tendency.
OK, we’re thinking of going to the LV meet. I just need to know where/time the get together is on Saturday. Is there like a schedule somewhere so I can figure this out? Thank you.
Contact SD REBear at:
sd.re.b@hotmail (no spam) .com
Delete the (no spam) and put it all together for the e-mail address.
We’d love to have you out!
Where is the meeting on Saturday? I’m going to make reservations but would like to know which hotel the get together is. If someone would be so kind as to tell me on which date the info was posted, I’ll look there. Thank you again.
Hi saywhat?:
The details on registering for the meeting are at:
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=5220
A couple of changes - hotel is now averaging $155/night instead of $105. Something seems to be happening on Saturday night but darned if I can figure out what - anyone know?
You can still register, but we had to go ahead and do some orders on things so you might be out of luck if you wait too long. We do have a couple extra on the stuff and the tour unless we change the tour because of the documentary filming schedule. Just saying we had to plan with the numbers we had so hopefully we can accomidate any late-comers.
Thanks!
I called SW Airlines - from San Antonio Tx to LV would be $800 - and that was off hours. That’s nuts. I remember back in the day…… like $99.
So I guess I’ll just read about your adventures. We so wanted to go.
gotta book ahead of time.. go out about 3 weeks and it’s $99 one way.
You can try budget services like priceline. I normally avoid priceline because they’ve stuck me on flights at 2am and I wasn’t allowed to change it, but they will find you a cheaper flight, usually.
Forbes dot com
Real Estate
America’s Emptiest Cities
Zack O’Malley Greenburg, 02.12.09, 11:20 AM EST
Vacancy rates in these spots spell lots of empty neighborhoods.
image
In Depth: America’s Emptiest Cities
Call it a modern-day tale of two cities.
For decades, Las Vegas, ripe with new construction and economic development, burgeoned into a shimmering urban carnival. Detroit, once the fulcrum of American industry, sagged and rusted under its own weight.
These days, it’s the worst of times for both.
Las Vegas edged Detroit for the title of America’s most abandoned city. Atlanta came in third, followed by Greensboro, N.C., and Dayton, Ohio. Our rankings, a combination of rental and homeowner vacancy rates for the 75 largest metropolitan statistical areas in the country, are based on fourth-quarter data released Feb. 3 by the Census Bureau. Each was ranked on rental vacancies and housing vacancies; the final ranking is an average of the two.
I think I’d tell the interviewer about the shaky start our careers had in the early 90’s recession, how we thought we had finally found decent jobs in the late 90’s, bought a house and started a family only to have the whole dot com thing blow all stability out of our lives.
We ended up selling our house just to cover basic living expenses while we both went back to school to pile on more degrees and certifications. By the time we were done, the housing market had left us in the dust.
We experienced what many families are experiencing now, poverty, un/underemployment and short-term homelessness as we were forced to move in with family. I experienced severe panic attacks and seriously considered suicide. I had enough Xanax (my mom gives them out like they’re candy) and Percocet from my c-section to bury myself two times over. I also consider it a miracle that we didn’t get divorced.
It was really hard not to be a homeowner earlier in this decade. I truly didn’t realize how easily people were obtaining credit and therefore didn’t understand that most people thought there must be something seriously wrong with us that we couldn’t buy a house too. Until I found this blog I didn’t understand that everybody else wasn’t making way more than us or had rich relatives or something.
I had the weirdest sensation back in the fall that I was just emerging from some sort of a time capsule, or had been living until recently in an alternate reality than everyone else.
We’re looking forward to buying something again someday. I feel we’ve lost so much time financially, I doubt we’ll ever fully recover. We’ve already had our lost decade and now are bracing for another. Although I would never act alone, I think I’m angry enough to take up arms. And I feel I must add, I’m a damn good shot — it’s a little hobby I picked up while I was unemployed.
We’ve already had our lost decade and now are bracing for another.
+1
ditto!
“What housing bubble views do you want to put down for posterity? And for those who won’t be able to make it, what would you suggest?”
By my dating, the financial panic currently underway became common knowledge as of August 2007. Eighteen months down the road, top policy makers appear to still live in a world of denial, holding out hope that a respiking of the housing bubble punch bowl will somehow remedy the situation.
Tomorrow we will hear a major announcement from Obama about his plan to stem further real estate price declines. It will be interesting from the standpoint of posterity to look back at whether this latest financial engineering measure succeeded or failed. I already have my hunch about the outcome.
P.S. Sorry (to all who care) that I cannot make it to LV.
Of course we care, PB. It will suck without you
Yep, we’ll definitely miss having you there, PB!
We’ll have a drink in your honor.
There are an increasing number of outstanding Op-ed pieces appearing in the WSJ and other MSM outlets that put the recent and ongoing financial crisis in clear perspective.
Wall Street Journal
* OPINION
* FEBRUARY 18, 2009
Synchronized Boom, Synchronized Bust
Bad U.S. monetary policy had global consequences.
By MARC FABER
The world has gone from the greatest synchronized global economic boom in history to the first synchronized global bust since the Great Depression. How we got here is not a cautionary tale of free markets gone wild. Rather, it’s the story of what can happen when governments ignore market signals and central bankers believe in endless booms.
…
As a consequence of this expansionary cycle, the world experienced between 2001 and 2007 the greatest synchronized economic boom in the history of capitalism. Past booms — of the 19th century under colonial economies, or after World War II when 40% of the world’s population remained under communism, socialism, or was otherwise isolated — were not nearly as global as this one.
Another unique feature of this synchronized boom was that nearly all asset prices skyrocketed around the world — real estate, equities, commodities, art, even bonds. Meanwhile, the Fed continued to claim that it was impossible to identify any asset bubbles.
The cracks first appeared in the U.S. in 2006, when home prices became unaffordable and began to decline. The overleveraged housing sector brought about the first failures in the subprime market.
Sadly, the entire U.S. financial system, for which the Fed is largely responsible, turned out to be terribly overleveraged and badly in need of capital infusions. Investors grew apprehensive and risk averse, while financial institutions tightened lending standards. In other words, while the Fed cut the fed-funds rate to zero after September 2007, it had no impact — except temporarily on oil, which soared between September 2007 and July 2008 from $75 per barrel to $150 (another Fed induced bubble) — because the private sector tightened monetary conditions.
In 2008, a collapse in all asset prices led to lower U.S. consumption, which caused plunging exports, lower industrial production, and less capital spending in China. This led to a collapse in commodity prices and in the demand for luxury goods and capital goods from Europe and Japan. The virtuous up-cycle turned into a vicious down-cycle with an intensity not witnessed since before World War II.
Sadly, government policy responses — not only in the U.S. — are plainly wrong. It is not that the free market failed. The mistake was constant interventions in the free market by the Fed and the U.S. Treasury that addressed symptoms and postponed problems instead of solving them.
Will somebody please represent J6P to the filmmaker?
Tell ‘em Muggy’s plan was to live a normal life until all of this happened, now he must forage through Chinese drywall for rice.
LOL on the Chinese drywall and rice.
We’ve all been forced to “put our lives on hold” because of these idiots who belived housing prices never fall, and borrowing more than you could ever repay means you are “wealthy.” No more “normal lives” for us.
Hey guys,
I had planned on going but my company cancelled the meeting we were supposed to be having in LV that same weekend and put me on call to boot so I can’t travel. Jerks. Anyway, I don’t know if anyone will miss me (I’ll certainly miss a few of you), but sorry I couldn’t come. Hopefully there will be another one in the future.
NSO
Oh pooh, NSO. I was so hoping to show you the progress I’ve been making on Old Olympus et al. Stay warm up dere, okay?
Sorry to hear about your cancelled weekend, NSO. We’ll miss you and have a drink in your honor, too!
“FOR POSTERITY”: A couple of years ago the Wall Street Journal ran an article entitled Flip that Yacht which I immediately recognized as a “shoe shine boy story” indicator of the crash to come (can’t find it online any more). What a difference a couple of years makes!
ECONOMY
Captain Repo
When boat owners fall behind on loan payments, ‘recovery agents’ can snatch the floating collateral.
Jonathan Torgovnik / Getty Images for Newsweek
Veteran repo captain Larry Miller
By Eve Conant | NEWSWEEK
Published Feb 14, 2009
From the magazine issue dated Feb 23, 2009
It’s the perfect hour for a leisurely cruise: late afternoon on a sunny Friday at a ritzy yacht club in Sarasota, Fla. But for the five men entering the marina, the next few minutes will be an adrenaline rush. Two of them approach the dock on foot carrying a tool bag, pretending to be mechanics. Three partners advance by sea in a 22-foot towboat. Their target: a 46-foot sport-fishing yacht worth $300,000. “She’s a beauty,” says Rudy Lamel, who’s leading this team of “recovery agents” who’ve spent weeks searching for this vessel.
The boat’s owners have fallen behind on their payments, so the lender has called National Liquidators, the nation’s largest boat-repossession firm, to seize this floating collateral. It can be dicey work. “Everyone owns a gun around here,” Lamel says nervously as the towboat pulls alongside the target. At 4:29 p.m. his team boards the target. “Hurry—cut the lines if you have to,” Lamel shouts as the team’s captain jimmies the cabin door. Every second counts when you’re doing a “snatch-and-grab”—especially when there’s a long list of boats waiting to be recovered.
I get Hotwire alerts for rooms on the strip for $10, Wanted to come but couldn’t afford it.
Good luck with the filming and the get-together! You guys rock! Such immense kudos to Ben and the blog regulars, who saved my sanity, what little of it was left, when I found you in 2005 or so, and realized that there were smart articulate people who shared my belief–labeled fear and pathology by so many–that this whole housing bubble was truly the equivalent of a massive-scale ponzi scheme, based on no fundamental value or sound economic model fathomable by little ol’ me, anyway!
You guys were *brave* as well as smart enough to analyse the housing scene. As others have said, to see what was coming didn’t require genius or a crystal ball. Sure, to argue forcefully and lucidly some saavy was important– and so many of you surely have that. But to say it plain, say it often, say it with conviction, also required that the blinders of greed and fear be shaken off long enough to really see what was happening.
I hope you all have lots of fun in Vegas, now as ‘empty’ as Detroit?! omg, wow, what an appropriate place to speak about the bubble, about the gambling schemes that got us here…
cheers all!