A Pyramiding Scheme Pre-Destined For Collapse
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “A Newsday review of home sales data shows that, across Long Island, 88 of 127 school districts saw declines in median home prices of actual sales from 2006 to 2007. Ten of them, in communities across Long Island, including Quogue, East Williston and Oyster Bay, saw price declines of more than 10 percent; two saw more than 30 percent. Times are tough for those like Linda Imerti, who went into foreclosure this year after she tried - but couldn’t sell - her Bellmore home. Said Imerti, ‘It’s really bad out there.’”
“‘This is only the beginning,’ said Pearl Kamer, the chief economist with the Long Island Association. ‘This can go on for two or three years, well into 2010.’”
“A recent offer by the United States Coast Guard to buy land revealed more than the fact that younger members of the Coast Guard and their families are in need of affordable digs. The proposition letters went out last week, and as of Tuesday there were over 50 interested parties ‘willing to talk to us,’ the team leader said. Usually when you do a cold mailing, you’re lucky if you get 6 percent. We got 25 percent. What this means to me is that a lot of people are sitting there thinking, we have that second house, maybe it’s time to hunker down, or move on. The market offers something for the Coast Guard.”
“People are not looking for a windfall. Rather, they may be wondering how they can get out with their shirt. We see the same attitude everywhere in the country.’”
“Home prices around Charlotte fell last year…And the outlook this year is lousy. ‘The market we had in 2006 and into 2007, that was not a normal market,’ said Donna Anderson, president of the Charlotte Regional Realtor Assoc. ‘We’re finding that we’re in a market correction.’”
“One reason prices didn’t plunge as much as home sales is that people yanked their property from the market. Or they chose not to sell, holding out for better times. But the main reason is that, in general, the region never saw the exorbitant gains of some urban areas. In other words, we’re not a bubble market.”
“There’s no ironclad formula for determining a bubble, but it’s basically a gain in prices that’s unsustainable and out of proportion to what supports it. Skyrocketing California home prices, for example, were out of sync with wages. ‘I don’t think we had a bubble in Charlotte,’ said Mark Vitner, senior economist with Wachovia, now part of Wells Fargo. Some neighborhoods, such as Dilworth and uptown condos, he said, ‘got a little bubbly.’”
“Jack Connor has been an appraiser in Central Florida for 32 years. He first called me in February 2005 after I predicted the housing bubble would pop. Jack said I didn’t know the half of it. He said home prices were crashing 30 percent to 40 percent.”
“His first inkling of the crash to come came around 2002. He did appraisals on FHA foreclosures. There were about 120 of them a month, and then they suddenly stopped. ‘It was the first time in history that happened,’ he says. ‘I talked to my buddies, and they were mystified. None of us could see the locusts coming.’”
“The locusts were speculators, swooping in to snap up properties, putting them back on the market in six months with a 30 percent markup. Jack told me about two jail guards living near Clermont. Six appraisals raised the value of their house from $192,500 to $348,000 in 18 months. There were the million-dollar homes furnished only with a bed, couch and TV because the buyers had maxed out with plans for a quick flip. Topping off the insanity were condo converters, many from South Florida. Jack directed me to Web sites promising 20 percent kickbacks on the purchase price at closing. This came courtesy of jack-up appraisals and lenders who didn’t care because they sold the mortgages to Wall Street chop shops that dispersed them in pieces around the world.”
“The fast money had taken over the market. ‘It was coming in from California,’ he says. ‘We literally had hundreds of mortgage warehouse lenders based in California.’”
“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac say they are tacking on these extra fees to counter higher risks and losses associated with certain loan products, buyer equity stakes and credit scores. Freddie spokesman Brad German said that some of the loan categories and credit risk combinations targeted in the latest round of fees ‘default at four to eight times’ the rate of other mortgages in the company’s portfolio.”
“However, realty agents, mortgage bankers and brokers are incensed at the new round of fee increases. Charles McMillan, president of the National Association of Realtors, complained in a letter to…the regulator of Fannie and Freddie, that not only were individual fee increases unjustified, but that in combination they could seriously deter home purchases.”
“‘They’re shooting themselves in the foot,’ said Steve Stamets, a mortgage loan officer in Rockville, Md. With substantial down payments of 20 percent and more, said Stamets, ‘they don’t need to be that tough’ on applicants even if home prices decline slightly more before the cycle ends.”
“Arkansas residential foreclosures in January were up 29 percent from a year. ‘We got overbuilt here in Northwest Arkansas,’ said Kathy Deck, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas at Fayetteville. ‘Builders and developers in a large way are the ones that can’t make their payments. Additionally, the cost per square foot in some cases was higher in Northwest Arkansas than in other places.’”
“Deck said many homeowners who are behind in payments are in a situation where they may have no alternative but to give in to foreclosure because selling may not be an option. ‘It used to be that people had to put 20 percent down to get into a house,’ Deck said. ‘But it didn’t take 20 percent [in the housing boom]. So if you put 5 percent or 2 percent down on your house and your house value falls by 10 percent, you are underwater. That’s when you see folks in many cases simply walking away.’”
“The annual Parade of Homes…gets a lot of criticism. Some people think that the parade is just a shrine to the gaudiness and excess that helped create the current financial crisis. They would rather see regularly priced homes that everyday people can afford instead of the million-dollar and above homes that comprise at least a portion of the show each year.”
“But the purpose of the parade isn’t to serve as an open house. The Parade of Homes is meant to be entertainment and to showcase the craftsmanship of the men and women of Southern Utah…It’s meant to show people the possibilities.”
“For example, I was intrigued a couple of years ago by a home that had a hidden room. I don’t have one in my house - probably never will. At the same time, it sure was fun to look at that room and dream a little of an honest-to-goodness hiding place from the troubles of the world.”
“Low housing prices are driving investors to White City, where the average number of days a single-family home stayed on the market dropped to 66 from 164 the same quarter a year ago, according to the Southern Oregon MLS. White City’s median price for existing homes fell 10 percent, to $148,500, during the most recent quarter, Nov. 1 through Jan. 31. ‘This is the first area you can get back into,’ said Stan Alexander, owner of DreamHouse Realty in White City.”
“Alexander said there is still downward psychological pressure on the housing stock, but that may produce an unwanted effect in the long run. ‘If the confidence level returns, you’ll see four times the buyers,’ Alexander said. ‘So much of it is based on fear. I actually am concerned and think we run the chance of running the prices back up a little more rapidly than any of us would like to see.’”
“Has the Seattle area’s real estate market hit bottom? One agent who recently predicted continued price declines set off a tizzy by declaring: ‘We’re at bottom.’”
“On Monday, Ardell DellaLoggia, an associate broker with Coldwell Banker Bain…said she decided to go public with her call after clients lost out on a house they wanted because co-workers talked them into lowering their offer. ‘They’re kicking themselves today for not listening to me,’ she said.”
“Last April, DellaLoggia wrote: ‘Anyone calling this point ‘bottom’ will have to eat some words in the next three years.’ On Monday, she said she wasn’t worried she would be the one doing the eating.”
“King County took a new lump last month, with the number of notices of foreclosure auction through trustee sale topping the number of houses and condominiums sold — 915 to 906 — according to numbers from the King County Recorder’s Office and Northwest MLS. The median existing house price in the Seattle area was $325,900 in the fourth quarter, the Realtors reported. That’s down 6.9 percent from the third quarter and 13.7 percent from a year earlier.”
“Erin and Aaron Donne saw Seattle prices had come down between a visit from New York last October and their move here just after Thanksgiving. They thought about renting but decided prices and interest rates were good enough to buy now, Erin Donne said. ‘We didn’t want to move in somewhere and rent for a year and have to move again.’”
“They closed earlier this month on a West Seattle house, paying nearly $200,000 below the original asking price and about $12,000 below the most-recent price, while also getting about $6,000 toward closing costs and another $1,000 for home repairs. ‘We’re pretty psyched,’ Erin Donne said.”
“If you have seen the St. George Foreclosure Tour bus traveling down the streets of your neighborhood, chances are there is a home in your area that is on their tour. Bus Tour Entrepreneur Blake Bench says…’I don’t see it declining anytime soon.’ Benches’ reasoning is due to a housing phenomenon called ‘ghost inventory,’ and according to Bench, ‘It is something I think the general public is better off not knowing about because it seems like we are all a little overloaded with doom and gloom.’”
“According to Bench, ‘These ghost inventory homes do not show up on the MLS yet and so almost nobody knows about them except for the neighbors who wonder, ‘That family moved out a year ago, why isn’t the home for sale yet?’ A large majority of the real estate agents don’t know about them or where they are. We have seen the first wave of foreclosures but there is a tsunami coming.’”
“‘We help educate people on how to do that so that they can benefit from someone else’s misfortune,’ says Bench. ‘It is sad to think that so many people lost their homes, but it is also rewarding to help those people who scraped and saved when everyone else was buying homes with money they didn’t have and income they didn’t really make.’”
“A newly renovated home on a quiet, tree-lined street near City Park sold last November for $387,000 — $125,280 less than the balance due on the mortgage. A McMansion in Evergreen was going to be sold for $1.5 million when construction started two years ago, but now the lender is mulling a $375,000 offer for the partially completed house.”
“‘Five years ago, no one knew what a short sale was,’ said Ed Jalowsky, owner of Hottest Homes Realty. ‘Now, every home being sold in the Denver area for less than $300,000 is a short sale - or at least that is the way it seems.’”
“A Denver Tech Center-based company believes it is taking the industry to a new level by offering one-stop shopping for all of the parties involved in a short sale. ‘We think of ourselves as the ‘thought leaders,’ in wholesale short sales,’ said Jason Byrne, one of the company’s three principals. ‘I think foreclosures will grow to be as big as the Resolution Trust Corp. by a factor of at least 10.’”
“The RTC, created by Congress in 1989, took control of troubled assets owned by failed savings and loans, selling about $500 billion in collapsed real estate and bad loans at huge discounts. Colorado was especially hard hit because the S&Ls had been big players here during the oil boom days of the mid-1980s.”
“The economic collapse our nation is experiencing today was experienced before by the oil producing states when the price of oil fell below $10 per barrel in 1986. Louisiana and Texas were hit hard but Alaska was the state hit the hardest. On average, between 1986 and 1990, real property across Alaska fell to less than half of its former value. Rental properties fell by two-thirds. Some condos fell to 20 percent of their original cost.”
“Since 2004, I have been warning clients of the coming nationwide real estate meltdown that we are now experiencing. In short, my experiences during Alaska’s mid-’80s meltdown gave me the kind of knowledge needed by those looking for answers today. The coming of today’s collapse was obvious to anyone who understood why rising home prices had outpaced inflation and rising wages ever since HUD, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac stopped assigning appraisers and began allowing mortgage companies to pick their own appraisers.”
“At the same time, they also deregulated the rules which had previously spelled out what closing costs buyers paid and what closing costs sellers paid, at closing. Those two deregulation measures set the stage for a nationwide ‘Ponzi style’ pyramiding scheme twenty years in the making that was pre-destined for collapse.”
“In 1987, the FDIC engaged New York based Hallwood Group Inc. to ‘rescue’ two, then later a third failing Alaskan Bank. It took 18 months for Alliance Bank to collapse under its own weight. The FDIC ended up doing with Alliance Bank what it could have done at far less expense with the three banks that formed Alliance Bank 18 months earlier. They took possession, made their depositors whole and liquidated its assets.”
“Hallwood Group also attempted to rescue banks in Texas with similar results. Between 1982 and 1992, Texas economy saw 506 banks fail, including seven of Texas’s largest.”
“Corrupt deal making and golden parachutes were also king with far too many of Alaska’s asset liquidation efforts. However one government agency got it right. HUD created in effect, a sales window through which they presented a steady stream of properties for the real estate industry to market.”
“Without favoring any person, agent, or company, HUD engaged the entirety of Alaska’s real estate industry by offering all real estate professionals an equal opportunity to market every property. While other government agencies were cutting sweetheart deals with insiders and giving away property to the connected at taxpayer expense, HUD established an open door transparent policy that consistently fetched top of the market while making buying opportunities available to thousands of under privileged Alaskans who may never have otherwise owned investment properties or homes.”
“The FDIC should be taking banks over, sending their management packing, and liquidating their assets the moment they see their net worth has reached negative territory.”
‘Corrupt deal making and golden parachutes were also king with far too many of Alaska’s asset liquidation efforts’
‘ Ardell DellaLoggia, an associate broker with Coldwell Banker Bain…said she decided to go public with her call after clients lost out on a house they wanted because co-workers talked them into lowering their offer. ‘They’re kicking themselves today for not listening to me,’ she said.’
Sometimes people ask me why haven’t I quit blogging and wrote a book, or something. I tell them, this story ain’t over.
My thanks to those who support this blog. Please check back this weekend.
Blog and write a book! Then keep blogging, then keep writing…
Your blog would provide fabuloso material for your book, Ben. Just do the copy -n- paste thing from blog to word processor, and you’re on your way.
Lookin’ forward to the book signing!
Agree with you, Ben.
The story is just barely beginning. We’ve seen the opening salvos but the main feature is yet to come.
Thanks Ben for opening all our eyes. We all had a gut feeling something wasn’t right. But You provided a place for us to learn from each other.
I think one of out $749K 2 family houses sold last year is abandoned, I walk around the block on garbage night to get some exercise, and noticed no garbage out the last few times. No notice on the doors no for sale /rent sign or obvious lights on . They kicked the long term tenant out and doubled the rent on the new people, and made an Illegal basement studio…..still shades/drapes on all the windows looks like a desk light on a timer, but all 3 empty?
Hey, everybody, check out the music on the DJ’s site. It’s good!
So what’s DJ’s site link? I’d love to hear the selections!
Click on his name.
click on his user handle. it’s a link.
‘Sometimes people ask me why haven’t I quit blogging and wrote a book, or something. I tell them, this story ain’t over.’
Well, you’re gonna, aren’t you? I assume. Come on, Ben! You must! And then on the back cover there can be a photo of you standing there with a pensive, thoughtful, sort of a Weltschmertzy* expression, if you know what I mean, like a wise and melancholy poet who has seen the world’s tribulations and has secretly wept in his heart, and you can be smoking a pipe, wearing a tweed vest, and your jacket has leather patches on the elbow. That’s like a rule, or something.
And it will say ‘Author, meditating at home’, and then readers will notice that that’s not a lumpy stone under your brogan! It’s the severed head of a mortgage broker!
Oh, man! I can’t wait! How about I pre-order a gross, right now!
Oh, one more thing—I urge you to make sure to include frogs in your book, and Bigfoot, and some leprechauns. All of the greatest works of literature contain these themes, as we can all agree.
* That means ‘world sorrow’ in German.
I thought it was going to be the shirtless photo on a sunlit beach with all the Florida condos in the background.
Wait - that was the calendar!
The calendar! The calendar! The calendar!
Ah, yes, the HBB Beefcake Ben Calendar.
OMG, an HBB calendar, that would be AWESOME.
‘OMG, an HBB calendar, that would be AWESOME.’
Yes, I think so too! I been pesterin’ Ben about it for MONTHS now. He just ignores me with lofty and God-like indifference. Also, the other day when he said something about being inside a lot…anyway, something to do with skin hue, I said ‘I like my men like I like my coffee—milky white and not too sweet’, (I said that just ’cause it sounded funny, actually I drink my coffee different ways) why, I think he went ahead and erased my post! Indignation!
Whatever, look, my point IS, let’s have an HBB calendar. That would be super. Totally worthy HBB fundraiser! I could give them out as Christmas presents. And if Ben doesn’t want to be the only subject, then we could have other HBBers. You could be there, Muggy, setting an abandoned Florida McMansion on fire, and you could have smears of soot smeared decoratively across your torso as you pose with your gas can, silhouetted by the leaping flames, for instance.
And then Fasty could be posed in an apron, lookin’ all snarky, as we know he always looks, showing us how to make a superior roux from free-range Wall-streeters he captured.
The possibilities are endless!
I look good in speedos.
‘I look good in speedos.’
Really? Then you are the only human in the world who does.
What color speedos? And I wonder if that makes a difference?
* puts on thinky face *
I prefer black.
I’ve always preferred black long before I lived in New York.
Which gives that whole “broke is the new black” a scary irony that I don’t care to think about.
“Which gives that whole “broke is the new black” a scary irony that I don’t care to think about”
I loved that txchick quote!
And it turns out she was right, too. Many people seem to be discovering that frugal is “in”.
‘I’ve always preferred black long before I lived in New York.’
Where did you live before you lived in New York? I guess I always assumed you was a native, from your proprietary fashion when you speak of it. Just like I speak of Utarr as if it was mine.* While, of course, mocking its stupid denizens every single chance I get.
Oh, gosh! Don’t tell me you’re like from, lessee…South Dakota!? Or else some unpatriotic foreign country!?
*It is. I’ll fight any of you that say it isn’t.
Chicago for eight years and before that ….
You had me from, “setting an abandoned Florida McMansion on fire.”
“setting an abandoned Florida McMansion on fire.”
And I knew it would be that way.
Might as well burn it to flinders before the termites get it … can’t let them buggers have the last word, now.
Wait - that was the calendar!
What month is Candy Crappin’ Unicorns™?
Seven Months from Shutdown, of course, silly!
‘Seven Months from Shutdown, of course, silly!’
Well, that’s a solid A+, there, Fasty. *admiring nod *
I was thinkin’ and thinkin’ what to say, and the best I had involved gumdrops. But I’m glad I gived up in time and didn’t pollute the purity of your response.
Gracias.
Basics always come through.
Crap, I don’t get it.
Why does this feel like high school all of a sudden?
hm, I take it less ’sorrow’ (which is Kummer or Sorge) as ‘ache’, by analogy, as Kopfschmerz is a headache. I think the standard translation is world-weary, but I am too lazy to dig out my Collins “PONS” to find out.
Die Welt tut mir weh.
You’re right the story is not over, but you do have the makings for a great book. I would think there are very few people that have compiled as much as you have on this housing market fiasco.
“The Never-ending Stor-rreeeeeeeey! La la lah, la la lah, la la lah”
Holy nuts, I loved that movie, and song.
youtube.com/watch?v=3khTntOxX-k
Dear Killers, take some notes… lol…
Hmmm. Well…I still like you.
ATREYU!!!
Thanks for all your hard work, Ben!
I was hoping to see your name or blog mentioned on “House of Cards” last night. You could have written that documentary years ago.
Dearest Ben,
You PROMISED me the first autograph pen!
My grams (92 yo) requires help.
I love her so.
Cursing that hubby and I are unable to join HBBers in Vegas.
Yeah - long story short - keep on blogging baybe.
Best Always,
Leigh
This thing is far from over.
The hidden inventory issue is still out there. I am still waiting for a house that I know was foreclosed 6 months ago to come to market.
Plus, the rampant speculation that defined this bubble, has NOT ended.
Too many investors think they have hit it big, by buying that house that was worth $300K for $150K.
No, you don’t have a $150K future profit, but a $30K (or more) loss coming.
More if you’re talking about FL or AZ or CA or even upstate NY.
Those houses are pretty much going to zero.
How many people do you know who could write a $10K check in a week? $50K?
It’s a lot of money. Only in this absurd bubble did people throw out those large numbers without thinking how much they mean.
Very true, FPSS.
How many people do you know who could write a $10K check in a week?
Me! Me! Oh wait, you meant other people. Damn, WAY too many of my coworkers are living paycheck to paycheck. $10,000 will be all the dp you need on a GNV shack soon, even a nice one, and I’m not talking about those silly FHA loans.
Too bad the sheeple spent their $10K on a car. In a city where hardly anyone actually NEEDS a car. The only challenge I ever had car-free was going to the supermarket (it’s still doable, just a pain), and should you not wish to bike with groceries in your backpack as I did there are some inexpensive apts a five minute walk from Ward’s Supermarket. Heck, one of my buddies from work lives there. (He isn’t broke–woo, renters.)
Oh yeah, actually some frat boys started a grocery delivery service too. Unfortunately, they work out of Sweetbay (Hannaford), which has gone mucho lame since the switchover from being Kash’n'Karry.
(In case anyone is wondering about going carfree when there are no such sweet arrangements, I hear there are websites that will ship you those heavy staple goods so all you need to pick up are produce, frozen foods, milk and eggs. And milk can be had at your local KONBINI*, often for less than supermarket price.)
*-Japanese for Kwik-E Mart
I was talking to a coworker this week. A group was talking about the stimulous and he was hoping it would stop the downward trend in real estate. Then he put a number on it. Wowwee. Said that for the last year he has been losing $7K per month on a 1 bedroom condo he bought in NoVa as an investment - it has a renter but doesn’t cash flow with the rent. Not sure if the $7K is just principle or if it is some combination of lost cash flow (I think he is negative about $700 a month there) and lost principle. Not sure if it matters. That is a lot of dough.
This is the first time we have discussed it that he didn’t talk about not caring because it is a long term investment. Same guy who lectured me about making money off leverage about 2 years ago. Back then all I said was it only works if the leveraged asset goes up.
Said that for the last year he has been losing $7K per month on a 1 bedroom condo he bought in NoVa as an investment
I’m going to assume you meant $7k/year based on what you said at the end of the paragraph. The only way to lose $7k/month would be to buy into one of those ridiculous new “luxury” condo towers like the ones going up in Rosslyn. I keep meaning to check on those to see who would spend $7,000,000 on a top floor condo near National Airport in that office tower hell. I guess you could say you live above what used to be the parking garage where deep-throat told his story.
*snicker*
This is a fairly high end place (I think) and right on top of a metro stop, so it could be 7K per month. Especially if he paid $350K or more for a 1 bedroom. Please note that multiple months after he bought this, another co-worker bought a studio for $310K (closer in location) so he easily might have paid $400K or more for the one bedroom that was slightly further out.
$350k at 6% would still only be $2k/month with nothing down. Taxes and insurance might be high in Maryland or DC, but I doubt they triple the mortgage.
Where is this triple the mortgage thing coming from?
He bought for $X. Now the value on the condo is about $X-84K. Voila - $7K losses per month for a year. Now, depending on the mortgage he could walk, but this is a co-worker and we work for the government. Our department frowns on us having trashed credit scores and not living up to financial obligations we can easily meet out of our salaries. I don’t know how often they check, but let a few scandals come out and we will all get a review by executive order.
Sorry, you mentioned the renter and I assumed you meant he was losing that much per month due to the difference between the PITI and the rent. I didn’t realize you meant depreciation. In the DC area that’s hard to quantify. We aren’t seeing the 40% drops yet that FL, NV, and some parts of CA are.
That’s $50K a year. That’s just a disaster.
Most people don’t make that in a year (after taxes) let alone lose that year-over-year.
He’s doomed.
holy cr@p! He is probably loseing much or all of his post tax income on this place. There’s just no way for this to end well.
Now that’s interesting. My daughter & her fiance’ rented one of those brand-new VA condos about 2 years ago. They were paying $ 1500 per month rent and the owner’s mortgage was over $ 4000 per month. Supposedly he had paid $267,900 for this piece of 750 ft. new-build crap. We couldn’t believe it. He finally told them they had to move out because he was losing too much money on it every month ( he was also renting elsewhere, an outgo of I estimate $ 6000 every month ). This was a little too far out to commute to DC every day, so I don’t know what he was going to do when he moved back into it. We thought it was quite a situation he had gotten himself into.
Meant to say “750 sq feet”. The landlord (investor - yeah right ) had bought it with nothing down or 5 percent down, and a variable rate mortgage, had mortgage note & taxes of over $ 4000 a month on it ( we saw the mortgage papers he had left behind up in a closet ! ) , and had to pay rent on another place closer to DC. I believe that his ultimate monthly losses were $ 5000 or so a month. Unbelievable.
“Jack Connor has been an appraiser in Central Florida for 32 years.”
Four of which, he has dropped awesome ground-view here at the HBB!!
Comments from the Orlando Sentinel article:
—————–
“any idiot can make any prediction and then be proven right at some point. if things are so bad why are home sales up 5 straight months? and why is inventory the lowest its been in 2 years? hmmmmm… if Jack the appraiser was so smart he wouldn’t be doing appraisals for 30K a year, he would be a hedge fund manager making millions.”
soccer mom
Mount Dora, FL
—————–
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHHHAHAHAHA!
and why is inventory the lowest its been in 2 years? hmmmmm…
ROTFL
Yet prices are dropping ~3% per month!
Not to mention the shadow inventory of central Florida.
I’m amused how the REIC still lashes out to discredit any critic. Sigh… It won’t ever change.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
“any idiot can make any prediction and then be proven right at some point”….if Jack the appraiser was so smart he wouldn’t be doing appraisals for 30K a year, he would be a hedge fund manager making millions.”
soccer mom
Mount Dora, FL
Someone whose most valuable skillset is ’soccer mom’ probably shouldn’t pioint fingers.
Kudos to Jack, one of our own. A truly awesome, decent guy who really cares about his work and about people. A gentleman and a scholar.
Agreed, to all. Plus, he’s patriotic. Plus, his name is ‘Jack’.
Every single ‘Jack’ I’ve ever met has been a superior specimen. It’s some sort of rule, I believe. Sweet Baby Jeebus just likes ‘Jack’s in general.
Hey, don’t jabber to me about this—I don’t make the rules. Take it up with Jeebus.
the one side almost had us a ’soccer mom’ for vp.
Thanks, dd (assuming that’s Jack), for keeping us informed on the goings-on in Florida.
Your integrity and honor will serve you well, as you’ve kept your most valuable possession intact: your reputation.
BTW, I think there is a ton of “shadow inventory” in the form of homes that are still occupied, but where the “owners” haven’t made payments in many, many months. This doesn’t include the empty homes that the banks are sitting on.
Don’t be fooled by the low inventory.
The bubble mentality is alive and well. All of the renewed speculative fervor is a direct result of so much govt intervention, IMHO.
Yes, I was talking RE at work last week and a coworker revealed he knows someone personally who stopped paying his mortgage a year ago and the bank still hasn’t kicked him out. He believes a lot of that is going on. So do I. He actually came out with the phrase, “In that case, it’s better for them to just stop paying than get a workout.” I asked if he didn’t mean to just walk away, but he explained that walking away from the house doesn’t seem necessary just yet.
Hey, livin’ rent free, cha-ching, no wonder the beemers, SUVs, and jacked up Dodge Rams and Z71’s are still on the road.
My parents live in Newsday territory, on Long Island, just over the Queens/Nassau border in Cedarhurst. It’s a nice, stable area, with houses built between the 1920s and the 1950s.
Right behind my parents, a house was torn down 4 years ago, and two houses were put in their place. They got a variance from the village to build on lots that weren’t big enough.
Now there’s two empty, unmaintained houses behind my parents that attract vandalism. They never sold.
Ummm section 8 next? Or a half way house for ex cons or mental patients?……. Then what will your parents do?
There really needs to be a “yes, but clean up your mess if it fails” provision when local governments make exceptions for projects. Make ‘em bulldoze it.
reuven,
If you put a provision like that in place it would only drive up the cost of housing for ‘everyone’ taking away the American Dream (TM) of guaranteed profitable flipping as promised in The Constitution!
Yeah, since local gov’s in no way have the cash to maintain it, I’d say give them a 90 Day Notice and then stand clear!
They call it the American Dream because you have to be asleep to believe in it” — George Carlin
If those houses were behind my parents’ place, my dad would be getting some extra target practice.
How about some accelerant and a match?
Say….does anyone think that the rate of arson has/will go up?
A big developer burned down his mansion here in Sacramento in the early 1990’s for the insurance money during our last crash. Hid out in Greece while his wife was charged and held in jail. What a stand up guy.
And what a dumb wife.
Italian insurance policy.
well it is in the ’soprano’ terrority, aint it!
Some clients of a real estate broker who discovered a family living in the home they were selling, claim that the broker rented out the property without their knowledge or permission.
http://www.fairfaxtimes.com/news/2009/feb/12/realtor-fined-misconduct-Margenau/
or
http://tinyurl.com/c2ax5f
That’s one way to make money by taking over-priced listings that will never sell. Rent them out for $800/month and pocket the cash!
This happened to a friend with a house for sale, a landmark historic house in a tourist town.
Scumbag realtor was renting the place out as a vacation house without permission, and of course not passing along any of the $. No wonder it was taking years to sell.
Stuff happens when you live several states away and can’t keep an eye on things.
People need to fly or drive in every few months, get out their keys and go through their house. No one will look after your interests better than yourself. Don’t trust, verify.
Wow, my sympathy to your friend, Mike. That is super scummy.
Even if you know the house is being rented, it doesn’t pay to be an absentee landlord. Some snowbirds who rent here were in the police station last summer when I was reporting my stolen bike (I stupidly never marked the serial number so I will never get it back, kind of a waste of everyone’s time). They had come to check in on their property and found that the person they had rented to was long gone. Apparently the nice little girl they entered a lease agreement with had sublet without their permission to some male, and his friends were all crashing there. So there they were, trying to explain their situation through one of those metal baffles in the bulletproof glass to an unsympathetic police officer so they could get a police escort to evict the rowdies.
Elderly couple, white hair … I wouldn’t want to spend my golden years that way. It’s one thing to manage RE when you live there, but this? There have to be better ways to invest your money.
tampabay.com/news/publicsafety/accidents/article975671.ece
O.k., this is crazy. SP Times is reporting the pilot of the Buffalo crash is from Pasco. I am having trouble interpreting the public records (used to PInellas). Did this guy HELOC his house?
I know this is a horrible thing to speculate about, but I read reports that first responders were amazed he only hit one house…
The couple reports I heard made it sound like only one house because he was headed straight down at impact.
Refinanced Feb 15, 2006 for $202,000 (1625 sq ft), bought 1997. Lien against property for pest services.
It was a she. And planes around there were icing up.
It was a horrible day. 60 mph wind gusts. Wild temp swings above and below freezing. Rain to splatting snow.
Shouldn’t have been in the air. AT ALL.
The national IR map looked like a whirlwind was on Western NY.
This is why I never fly shoddy airlines like Continental. They skimp on maintenance and pilots. I only fly United, Delta and American.
I can’t wait to hear the official reason for the Continental crash in Denver.
“…Without favoring any person, agent, or company, HUD engaged the entirety of Alaska’s real estate industry by offering all real estate professionals an equal opportunity to market every property. While other government agencies were cutting sweetheart deals with insiders and giving away property to the connected at taxpayer expense,”
“The Connected”: “With malice towards all…with charity towards none”
“Erin and Aaron Donne saw Seattle prices had come down between a visit from New York last October and their move here just after Thanksgiving. They thought about renting but decided prices and interest rates were good enough to buy now, Erin Donne said. ‘We didn’t want to move in somewhere and rent for a year and have to move again.’”
There are so many of these annoying east coast transplants showing up in the Seattle area. Apparently, they’re all just wealthy and have no qualms about moving to an area where the economy is in an absolute nosedive. I know it’s a free country, but these people have never heard of “when in Rome”. They blow into the area, and are all of a sudden the authority on ‘everything Seattle’. Shut your pie hole, or go home. Rant off.
Does anyone remember Seattle Eric? What ever happened to him?
That jerk really needed a lesson. That’s why I found him, dragged him out of his grimy cardboard box under the viaduct, hosed him off for an hour—I hate germs and filth—and then I ate his liver with Green Giant creamed corn and a nice can of Pabst. I only ate part of his liver, though. It was crunchy and bloated and didn’t seem healthful.
You can have some leftovers, if you want.
I think there are still some leftovers, though they’re no longer under the viaduct, but floating in the Sound near the bulkhead by Ivar’s. The seagulls were picking him apart, but found him so rank that they spat him out in disgust. Now the seals and such are protesting their unwelcome new resident.
Why, speaking of, there’s some exciting bills regarding pollution and water quality up before our brilliant and capable* Washington state legislators at this very time. What a coincidence! How about I post some links and bill numbers, and you can submit public comment.
It’s quite uncomplicated, now that we have email and stuff.
Just be sure to use simple, easily grasped words. Oh, yeah, and don’t talk about hookers. That distracts them.
* That part is sarcasm.
Liver, creamed corn, and… Pabst? I thought you had better taste than that. I would’ve gone with Mexicorn and a Cabernet, personally.
I was thinking fava beans and a nice Chianti.
I can’t believe you think so poorly of my taste, Mr. Bink. This was one of them nuancy thingies. See, my point was, that Seattle Eric didn’t deserve to be eaten with anything but canned corn and Pabst. Oh, and ketchup. With a paper Dixie-brand napkin, and I didn’t use the right fork, either.
Now, if I was to eat someone else, then they would—obviously—be served with different side dishes. For instance, were I to consume Fasty, (just as an example, I have no actual plans in that regard,) why, then, I’d get out the best wine I have in my modest but carefully selected collection and then after long deliberation I would select one of the choice recipes he presents upon his lovely blog, to serve with him.
That would not only be suitable, but also delicious, and ALSO provide a delicious irony.
I love irony. As much as I love food and wine.
Where be my post? It was fancy-like, and I especially wanted Fasty to see it. Hahahahahaha!
Mine seems to be lost in the ethers as well.
‘Mine seems to be lost in the ethers as well.’
Well, did you mention cannibalism, your panties, or a beefcake calendar featuring Ben? Because such posts seem to be especially liable to meet with a filter.
Take it from me.
Does Fast have a website with recipes?
I think I might remember him. Was He the guy who bought and flipped houses? Was he the guy who did this on a special Island in Seattle? I seem to remember that, but I can’t remember the name of that exclusive, expensive place… something hill? Anyway, wonder how it’s going there…
Why did the west coast get all the really cool trolls?
Hm, I wonder what happened to that guy who kept going on about “jungle music”. Did he end up in a seedy rental where they are playing “jungle music” out of the cars all day? Or perhaps latino pop?
I wonder if he decided to be a credit to his race and work 20hr days to pay back his loan obligations, or if he just walked away like the “mud peoples” he so obviously had a repressed erotic fascination with.
/sarcasm
‘We got overbuilt here in Northwest Arkansas,’ said Kathy Deck, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas at Fayetteville. ‘Builders and developers in a large way are the ones that can’t make their payments. Additionally, the cost per square foot in some cases was higher in Northwest Arkansas than in other places.’”
I still remember how finding out about the bubble in Northwest Arkansas was the ’straw that broke the camel’s back’ for me; it convinced me this was a global bubble.
I wish nothing ill on Northwest Arkansas… but they are one of many cities that must suck up the pain.
I’m in utter shock how fast Dubai real estate is plummeting. When growth is your primary industry and growth ends…
See Orlando, Tampa, Pheonix, and now Dubai.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
There is an article on the NY Times that said there are over 3,000 cars abandoned in the airport parking lot in Dubai.
The article also says they still have a debtor’s prison over there!!
If you were an immigrant, and your choice was debtor’s prison or jingle mail and just head home, what would YOU do?
Those loans are never getting paid. In fact, Dubai is going to be completely annihilated economically.
I’ve been asking for about 2 years for a good way to “short” Dubai. That entire place is gonna get wiped off the map. First financially, then then probably literally as the natives (which ALL hate the current residents and each other) bomb that place back to the 1st century.
RE will drop there 90%+, almost no doubt about it.
I read that that big palmtree– shaped man–made island is slowly sinking…
I didn’t laugh too hard. I mean, I only busted a few blood vessels.
Did you miss the part where when people try to open the faucets on that island, only cockroaches come out?
That was the best part for me.
It was even in the “paper of record”, no less! Which just made it piquant and refreshing like a crisp white wine on a bright sunny summery day.
In the fall of 2007 we drove from here to Branson, Missouri to be guests with old friends at their timeshare. I could not believe the McMansion communities in NW Arkansas, going up in the middle of nowhere. To be sure they weren’t large communities (maybe a few dozen lots) but still…
BTW, that is pretty country. Almost as nice as this area.
“However, realty agents, mortgage bankers and brokers are incensed…
Then I want it. Whatever it is. I don’t even care what it is. And I also don’t care if that’s a simplistic, knee-jerk, blindly contrarian view to be holding, because I’ve spent about 5 years now watching this varied group of representative asshats just be nothin’ but utterly wretched greedster abominations at each and any and all available opportunity.
My simple viewpoint works fine for me at this point.
‘…I’ve spent about 5 years now…’
Yes, I know they were that way before, but I’ve only been watching them with intense concentration and growing horrified disgust for about 5 years, you see. Actually paying attention.
Before that, they existed in my world, yes, but only as distant abominations, like hemorr*hoids or syph*illis or Sur*inam toads. You know–icky gross things you don’t like to think about and hope never to encounter personally.
this varied group of representative asshats just be nothin’ but utterly wretched greedster abominations
Oly, you should have a radio show. You make me laugh.
Thanks. I think.
‘I don’t think we had a bubble in Charlotte,’ said Mark Vitner, senior economist with Wachovia, now part of Wells Fargo. Some neighborhoods, such as Dilworth and uptown condos, he said, ‘got a little bubbly.’”
“A little bubbly” ROTFLMAO!! They always ask this assclown his opinion, he never saw anything coming. Not long ago, “Charlotte is a major banking hub, we are resistant to these kind of things, bla,bla,bla.
Charlotte is 100 miles north of me and I can tell anyone it is going to correct in a big way!
‘Vitner, senior economist with Wachovia, now part of Wells Fargo’
That says it all
No kidding. Sounds like Zandi taught him well. Speaking of which, it’s sickening to see that humorless, lying sack all over the airwaves soundbiting about the economy. When you realize that members of CONgress listen to him, you know we’re in really big trouble.
wmbz,
When his ‘former’ employer ( formerly ) bought out Golden West for about 6 zillion dollars he didn’t see that either? I mean, not even in retrospect?
“Dilworth”
I am moving there. That is the greatest name. ever.
How about ‘Worms, Nebraska’? How about ‘Dead Indian’ Illinois? Although last I heard, they was gonna change that.
How about Climax, GA? How about Elephant Butte, NM? How about Lick Skillet, VA? How about Pyro, Ohio? I should think you in particular would LOVE that one.
You forgot about Big Bone, KY and it’s state park Big Bone Lick!
Also, if you were to look at a map of the area, Big Bone is bordered by Beaver Rd.
Those bumpkins sure have a sense of humor!
And, while we’re at it, how about Hop Bottom, PA? Or Climax, and Hell, both in MI? Of course we can’t omit French Lick, IN from this list.
Conservative Idaho has a town named “Democrat”. It’s now a ghost town on the dirt road to Whiskey Mountain.
‘Conservative Idaho has a town named “Democrat”. It’s now a ghost town on the dirt road to Whiskey Mountain.’
Wow! I am packing up to move right this very instant!
Wow, I’m jealous. Growing up in Massachusetts, the only thing weird about the town names it that they were all women’s names: Sharon, Lynn, Beverly…
Well, I guess we do have Rutland. And Billerica, which is funny, because it’s not pronounced the way you think it is.
Oh, oh, I remember a good one! Intercourse, Pennsylvania!
You may want to consider Sugar Tit, South Carolina! They can’t keep a town sign there, it keeps getting stolen!
The Slim family had a collective chuckle when we drove past the Bear Wallow Baptist Church in NC.
I once summited ‘Molly’s Nipple’ in Utarr county, Utarr.
Yep.
It’s a pleasant little peak on the way back from Thistle. I did it just so I could say I did.
(It was good for both of us.)
The best town name is Intercourse, PA
This cannot be beat !
Most definitely beats Blue Ball, PA.
In Florida the names are all ironic, like “Niceville” on the Redneck Riviera and “Celebration” in the midst of the economic slumpfest that is greater Orlando.
Also, lots of names in English and in Seminole for what used to be there before whitey and his septic tanks and cattle farms and condoze destroyed it.
DinOR,
Vitner like dozens of other experts that are always called on for their learned opinion, never or rarely get called on all the damn smoke they blew, when the sh!t storm that was coming was obvious to so many. Like folks that frequent this blog have been saying/howling for years.
When they do get called on their glaring mistakes and misleading statements, they deflect with the weak, “no one saw it coming” BS. Along with back peddling coupled with twisted gobbledygook.
If I was that bad at my job, no one would hire me, ever!
wmbz,
Ben and I kind of cross posted but I can’t help but agree, what more needs to be said? The “I was blind-sided defense” deflects from the fact that they were very much enablers. As if to legitimize their “efforts” up ‘to’ the point where they got t-boned.
Again, when any number of private parties engage in fraud in primarily single-event-transactions, that is *not a Ponzi. It’s called an “inside job”!
The fact that most realtors, MB’s and appraisewhores committed these acts time and again with multiple and totally unrelated parties fairly cements it. In spite of the fact ( and I ‘do’ agree ) that they certainly planted a seed of expectations in the buyer’s mind, -nothing- was in writing.
The fact that none of the people profiled on CNBC’s special last night was actually -able- to SELL their homes, kills the Ponzi notion right there. Since a great majority of the toxic assets comes from cash-out re-fi’s ( frequently done w/ lower rates and lower payments ) a ‘mark’ to off load the asset to was completely unnecessary. Leaving the bank at the end of the day and “forgetting” to lock the vault isn’t how I would describe a Ponzi in the classic sense.
“‘They’re shooting themselves in the foot,’ said Steve Stamets, a mortgage loan officer in Rockville, Md. With substantial down payments of 20 percent and more, said Stamets, ‘they don’t need to be that tough’ on applicants even if home prices decline slightly more before the cycle ends.”
Ha. Ha. Ha ha ha. Ha ha ha ha ha.
Decline slightly more before the cycle ends? In Rockville? Baby we have barely started in Rockville.
There is going to be a “close out” auction on “The Fitz” condos near the town center and the Rockville Metro.
1 bedroom - 682 sq ft - previous asking $261K - min bid $159K
2 bedroom - 1102 sq ft - previous asking $369K - min bid $219K
3 bedroom - 1309 sq ft - previous asking $435K - min bid $239K
Feb 28th at the Bethesda Marriot. I might go just to see it, but there is no way I would bid. That place was selling all through the bubble. I bet 80 to 90% of the current owners are underwater.
I wouldn’t mind seeing a report on that, if you go. I saw the notice, but even the minimum bid prices don’t seem entirely that attractive.
Please post what you saw, who did what to whom etc..
Thanks,
Hahahahaha!! Do tell us the outcome. This stuff is so crazy. I guess these fools didn’t know that the last time they built a high rise tower in Rockville, the darn thing went Section 8.
The koolaid is strong in Rockville … always was, really … Ever seen their early 60’s Futurama plans? That worked out real good for them. Not!
I shudder to think of what those old Victorians in the, er, how shall we say it?, historically white part of town near the liberry were going for during the bubble.
I just got a Xmas card telling me about how they rebuilt Richard Montgomery High School (bubble bubble prop taxes have to go somewhere) so it’s even closer to the furniture store, Marlo’s. Need to remember to check that place out next time I’m in DC, just for the lulz.
How ignorant is that? An isolated even where the seller rejects a “low” offer. When does that ever happen? How about in any and every market. The house might be worth $180K with a listing of $250K. Just because a seller rejects an offer of $225K, doesn’t mean anything. There are plenty of stubborn sellers for whatever reason. She will eat her words.
Don’t even bother trying to make any sense out of what this clown face says. Someone once opined that “an Ardell is a fake eyelash”.
How many times have we seen the sellers begging for an offer matching the original low ball?
Now ‘lost out’ implies a bidding war. When will the REIC get prosecuted on that fraud? I will walk away from any Realtor who even hints there is a biddinng war. This isn’t 2003 anymore. Buyers are scared and about to become terrified.
I agree, the Realtor ™ will eat her words.
From Ben’s article link:
So, once a house is priced at least 20 percent below what it would have been expected to fetch at the market’s peak in the summer of 2007, it sells, DellaLoggia said. Some houses priced at larger discounts are drawing multiple offers, but these offers rarely are pushing the sales price above 20 percent under peak, she said.
Yep… 20% below peak is today’s market.
Oh wait:
Andrew Gledhill, an associate economist at Economy.com, predicted Seattle would hit bottom toward the end of the year, although recent layoff announcements by big local employers could exacerbate problems.
As long as buyers fear layoffs, there will be no bottom.
The speculation of 2003 through 2008 hasn’t unwound. Much less have we seen knife catchers have to ditch their recent purchases…
Got Popcorn?
Neil
“buyers are scared”, boy I wish a friend was afraid.
Newly married, 26, she and hubby suddenly put an offer
on condo in rancho bernardo. Short sale, was 400, listing
is 332k and that is what they offered. Says “now is the time,
and they are getting in at the bottom”. We said NOT bottom yet.
Beau who is comml RE and father of lady tried talking her
out of it till at least next yr.
Something about 20 somethings that can’t be talked out of nesting.
Oh well, another early lesson in her life.
Their minds are made up.
Hopefully the “short sale” won’t be so short taking months..
Okay, I say she chews those words with a generous dollop of Grey Poupon.
Well, IIII say she won’t be able to afford a dollop of Grey Poupon, but will instead have to use a squirt from a squeezy plastic bottle of the bright yellow cheap stuff, right from the Dollar Store, to help those words go down.
Where’s the liver, fava beans and Chianti, dudette?
She cannot afford those, either.
On a completely tangential note, have you ever made your own mustard using a coffee grinder, some mustard seeds, vinegar and some sea salt?
Yes. Except not a coffee grinder. I use a mortar and pestle, and I cackle like a witch when I grind whatever it is up.
Also I add a little dollop of oil, to make it smoother. In between the cackling like a witch part.
Look, I’m not saying I even want to cackle like a witch. I’m just following the rules of pestle-usage.
I’m big on rules today. It’s a new thing with me, that’s for frakin’ sure.
Yeah, sorry, I was going for correctness and you are WAY the h*ll ahead of me.
D*mmit, I bet your mustard tastes something fierce!!!
I’m jealous.
Sometimes I like the bright cheap yellow stuff. Not going to get me to eat Grey Poupon (not a superior mustard btw) on my corn dog at the fair.
I buy all my mustard at the Russian store. Line of Polish mustards in every style. (Tastes as good as the German imports at supermarket but cheaper per oz., hehe.)
Worst mustard I every had was this honey-whole seed Irish stuff. Yuuuucckkkkk. Mom and grandma were gaga over it. Mom even put it on broiled meat and then made us eat it. Gawd, I’m glad to be out of that house.
Okay, I say she chews those words with a generous dollop of Grey Poupon.
What? No liver?
All this talk about livers is making me hungry. As it happens, I have some nice, clean, sanitary CHICKEN livers in the fridge, from Safeways on Mud Bay road, and that’s what I have now decided I will eat for dinner. With a nice chianti. Oh, dang, but I have no fava beans! Shoots!
How do you get your fava beans? I’ve bought the canned version and apparently they are an acquired taste because my wife (who is a culinary adventurer) won’t touch ‘em. They do have this odd oxidized metal thing going on.
I wonder HOW MANY PEOPLE in this country are kicking themselves FOR listening to a Realtywhore tonight ?
Sleep well Sweet Renters
“…there are NO houses sitting on market without an offer, where the seller is asking 20 percent under peak pricing.”
I am continually perplexed by this comment. I do recognize that sales volume is way off, however, my question remains:
With homeownership at or near 69%, a historical high, who are all of these people putting multiple offers on EVERY home that goes to 20% off?
Infestors? Who else could it be??
Wife: “Dang, Charlie, it’s those Infestors again. Better call the Orkin man.”
Husband: “But no one saw them coming!”
I’m seeing investors still. They are back with a vengeance in So Cal, with buying activity similar to the peak of the bubble.
This is going to be a very long downturn, IMHO.
You will need to include just plain folks that are totally idiots.
A colleague of mine is worried about being let go. Keeps telling me he’s first to go and it would be tough to get another job in this market. BUT he also is looking for a larger place becuase his wife wants a bigger house for their kids. His credit isn’t good (which I know) and his condo was bought at the peak (2005/6)
One of my inlaws recently got let go from his job and while we were eating dinner the subject of conversation turned to housing in the Silicon Valley. They asked us when are we going to buy a house since the prices dropped dramatically around the area. We got the “it’s a great time to buy” quote. I just straight told them that I would buy a place when I am comfortable my wife and I can pay the mortgae “flippin burgers” if we both lost our jobs. There was a time when it was possible in the Valley. I don’t think I would wait that long but I just wanted to make a point. They have a $4000 mortgage and and guess who picked up the tab. Apparently, they go around talking to friends and relatives that don’t own a home to buy now.
Thanks for the story, FP.
If they are legitimate buyers, then my confusion comes from why people move from house to house so much. It’s almost as if there’s a theme here (like with smaller purchases) that people think a new home is going to cure their unhappiness.
This also highlights the fact that it might not be new buyers entering the market, just churn, which does zip to reduce inventory.
Some guy on Bloomberg radio was highlighting this yesterday, saying that the only way things will change is when buyers come from the current pool of renters.
Yeah, I don’t understand the buying around theory either.
Heck, my sister, who for years has been saying “wouldn’t it be nice if we had a larger house” (she’s in San Jose, but bought in the 90s) said recently that they spent so much time getting their current house just the way the want it that she can’t imagine moving.
“They have a $4000 mortgage…”
Slipping into Great Depression II with a $4k/month mortgage? LMAO!
“‘This is only the beginning,’ said Pearl Kamer, the chief economist with the Long Island Association. ‘This can go on for two or three years, well into 2010.’”
Serial bottom callers, LISTEN UP: Keep saying the market is going to bottom out if you want to be mocked severely and discredited to the point where you have to follow the likes of Gary Watts and David Lereah into hiding. The long tail of this housing bubble collapse coupled with the real-time record of many fools who incorrectly corrected a shallow trough of short duration will leave plenty of egg on many an economist’s face.
correctedpredicted (chalk it up to a moment of vehement anger…)Aw, Bear, you’re so cute when you’re vehemently angry.
It is OK, PB. You did not post anything yesterday so you can have an extra portion today.
I take it you’re not a fan of the “souffle” argument?
Of course the market is going to bottom out. The only question is when and at what price.
Is DinOR in the house? Any comments on the OR bank failure? Still waiting for one here in MT!
A REIC prostitute has her say about the Obama housing bailout plan…
Friday, February 13, 2009
Obama to tackle housing problem next
President Obama is expected to unveil a plan to reinvigorate the housing sector next week. Kai Ryssdal speaks with Columbia University Professor Chris Mayer about what the plan might look like.
“One reason prices didn’t plunge as much as home sales is that people yanked their property from the market. Or they chose not to sell, holding out for better times. But the main reason is that, in general, the region never saw the exorbitant gains of some urban areas. In other words, we’re not a bubble market.”
Bull. We were looking at Charlotte as a possible place to move last year. The only problem was that unless you’re in banking, there’s no economy and the cost of housing was actually pretty high. The city seems to count heavily on East Coaster retirees as well. It is indeed overpriced.
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