Countdown To LV - Day 0 - Topic Suggestions
OK folks, I could use some topic suggestions for this weekend. Here are some comments from the last countdown thread. “1. Regardless of the protests from Washington and Wall Street that ‘they never saw it coming’, many folks here did. It actually WAS as plain as the nose on your face when examined in comparison to historical data. Not only was it possible, it was inevitable. They knew it would fall apart, but maybe not how quickly it would implode. If we could see it coming, they could see it coming.”
“2. Also, the ‘best and brightest’ in Washington and Wall Street are the idiots who GOT us here and then couldn’t possibly see it coming- does anyone REALLY believe that these same idiots now know the way to get us out??”
“3. First the Bush administration and now Obama’s are trying to stop an erupting volcano by burying it with dump-trucks full of money. It won’t work and they are wasting scarce resources. You can’t cure a heroin addict by giving him another fix and you can’t cure our rampant debt problem by encouraging more people to borrow. We need to do something different, but the government is too frightened to admit, much less encourage it.”
“4. Obama, like all politicians, talks out of both sides of his face. He rails about the need for more affordable housing and then tries to impliment a plan to stop the decline in housing prices- WTF?”
Another posted, “The simple math, % interest, tax, insurance, cost of house, credit card debt, did not calculate out for my income and the house price. The loan officer said it would but the math just did not support it. Could I tell the peak? Yes, when the first loans started to reset. When will housing prices improve? When unemployment drops. Who will buy the empty houses? Investors who will turn them into rentals for the newly employed who will be reluctant to buy a home.”
One had this, “I’d first convey emapthy for what i imagine will be the horrid state of affairs they find themselves in. Then I’d tell them that money is a tool. Money is time. Money is food and shelter. Money is power. Money is an escape artist. Money is a viscious pit bull. Money is a sweet smelling rose. Money is a weapon. Money is freedom. Money is a ball and chain. Money is a joker. Money can lift you up or bury you.”
“Money is what gives strength to the people of all societies, no matter what political and/or economic system may be in use. Money is a lot of things, good, bad and indifferent.”
“Money directly impacts all parts of your life whether you have a little, a lot, or none. So, first learn about it. Then teach your children everything about it. Overcome what is sure to be powerful opposition and make economics studies a requirement in all schools, at all levels. Teach everyone where money comes from, where it goes, what it does and doesn’t do, what it can and can’t do, and how to use and control money.”
“Any society generally ignorant of and complacent about money puts itself at severe risk and will eventually find it to be their cruel, arbitrary and heavy-handed captor.”
One said, “Such immense kudos to the blog regulars, who saved my sanity, what little of it was left, when I found you in 2005 or so, and realized that there were smart articulate people who shared my belief–labeled fear and pathology by so many–that this whole housing bubble was truly the equivalent of a massive-scale ponzi scheme, based on no fundamental value or sound economic model fathomable by little ol’ me, anyway!”
“You guys were *brave* as well as smart enough to analyse the housing scene. As others have said, to see what was coming didn’t require genius or a crystal ball. Sure, to argue forcefully and lucidly some saavy was important– and so many of you surely have that. But to say it plain, say it often, say it with conviction, also required that the blinders of greed and fear be shaken off long enough to really see what was happening.”
“I hope you all have lots of fun in Vegas, now as ‘empty’ as Detroit?! omg, wow, what an appropriate place to speak about the bubble, about the gambling schemes that got us here…cheers all!”
I wish I could be there! I’d love to meet you all with a few drinks. But “unfortunately”, I’ll be in Australia! If I see an evidence of a bubble there, I’ll take some photos for y’all. (I’m sure it won’t be as gloomy and depressing as the Poland photos I showed here in 2007–new condos overlooking the Majdonek concentration camp, for example….)
Whereabouts in Australia?
Looney Tunes Topic # 1:
1. Is it acceptable to be a “professional” without being “ethical?”
How does the above question relate to the following people?
Real estate agent
Escrow agent
Mortgage broker
Appraiser
Bank loan officer
2. What is the penalty if they are not “ethical?”
Looney Tunes Topic # 2:
The ability to obtain a mortgage loan should be based on what criteria?
a. verifiable income
b. length of employment
c. credit history of applicant
d. ratio of income to debt burden
e. amount of $$$$$ fees generated to all parties involved in the loan transaction
f. Gov’t goal of “countrywide” distribution & inclusion into an “Ownership Society”
g. applicant can demonstrate a need to own more than x2 homes
h. ability of the loan applicant to sign their own name
i. dollar $$$$$ amount of down payment deposit
j. “e” only
k. “e” & “f”
l. write your own combination of items:
m. all of the above
Extra credit question: Choose a least x2 items above and relate how it applies to the “curious case” of Mr. Casey Konstantin Serin (born September 10, 1982 in Tashkent, Uzbekistan)
The ability to obtain a mortgage loan should be based on what criteria?
Whatever criteria the owner of the money being lent chooses as the criteria to be met.
RE: 2. What is the penalty if they are not “ethical?”
Relative to my former appraisal profession?
There is/was no penalty for the practice of dishonesty and unethical behavior.
The “re-fi” party was “on”, and the state review agencies turned a complete blind eye to complaints from honest people who’s businesses were being gutted and destroyed by the huge number of newly minted number hitters who sprang from the federal government’s brilliant scheme to license people.
Subsequently, I know a fair number of people in the appraisal profession who financially profiteered enormously off the last 5 years.
WE are talking HS grads pullinn’ in $250k grosses, who controlled enormous marketse because they were the “go-to” number hitters
and data fudgers for legions of half-wit real estate agents and the whore-dog independant mortgage brokers who kissed their sorry asses. in order to score their business.
Never forget, that ALL of this breakdown evolved from LIES and CORRUPTION at the bottom of the feed chain!
Without the proper boxes checked; neighborhood quality narrative distorted; and quality/conditions of improvements fudged; the loans could never have passed underwriting and subsequent been sold to a Norway teachers pension fund.
And at the moment, I can guarantee you, all these chucks are gonna be loungin’ around their paid off lakeside cottages, cold beers in hand, laughin’ at the enormous chaos they have caused.
‘all these chucks are gonna be loungin’ around their paid off lakeside cottages, cold beers in hand, laughin’ at the enormous chaos they have caused’
I don’t know about that. Here in this town the brokers have gotten slaughtered. One high flying loan company owner I know is really hurting. He made a ton of $ on the bubble, and actually sold some property for even more. But these guys didn’t save near enough. Nobody’s laughing in N AZ.
RE: Nobody’s laughing in N AZ.
Ben,
My comment largely concerned a small cabal of appraiser’s I knew who pretty much grabbed controlled the appraisal market in certain regions of Maine for the last 5 years.
There’s only one way to make $650k per year as an independant L/O in Maine…and that’s to pay off your appraiser’s with work volume to make sure every deal goes thru without a hassle from underwriters or the wholesale market.
All of these hacks had things in common like had basement offices; relatives workin’ for them as independant contractor’s to avoid unemployement and social security taxes; secured expensive MLS data sources thru friend’s employed as brokers; paid cash for their shorefront properties; and avoided ANY investment in the purchase sector like the plague because, most were “smart” enough to know the whole game was a sham.
Much different scenario than multi-office real estate sale’s firms employing hundreds in expensive infrastructure, with many associates caught with their “flips” whent the music stopped.
I can see why none of these types are laughin’ at the moment.
The punishment for not acting ethically is life imprisonment inside an unethical person.
That don’t look like nearly enough punishment to me. Unless, of course, the unethical outer shell is gettin’ its worthless as*s fed through a hay-baler.
Ahhh, hay-balers…it brings back the memories. When I was a wee lass I used to love how the organized little green bales would come po0ping out the back end all tidy and regular in long straight rows. I enjoyed sitting and watching. There was a timeless, patient, inevitable quality to it all. It was zen-like, really. Until something would go wrong and the whole trundling contraption would jerk to a halt and the little human servants would hop off cussin’ in a decidedly un-spiritual way…
* starts to sing ‘Memories’ loudly and zen-ishly *
Seventy five pound two string bales are just
right. 600 tons a year, four cuttings. Lots of
work.
Boy, that brought back some memories.
It’s not punishment. It’s not as if an unethical person is sitting around saying “I want to be ethical!!” They don’t KNOW that they are unethical. They truly belive they’re right.
In every war, both sides truly belive they are in the right, or else why would they fight?
Punishment
for being truly ‘ethical’ is not making any or enough $.
You are on to something here. Look at how turning a blind eye to transgressions by the REIC may have given an implicit go ahead to ethical trespass across the board. The most obvious are Madoff and Stanford. But we also have a perceptible increase in sleaziness in other sectors. My experience over the last five years has been that no one, wait, soak that in, NO ONE, selling me any thing or service can be trusted. And it goes without saying that our esteemed government representatives have anything but our best interests in mind.
I can only wonder how many other people are having the same experience.
This is link to a map of a proposed tour of various construction sites in distress in Las Vegas
http://tinyurl.com/bp2kxz
I am not familiar with all the disasters in town - I mostly hang out on the south-west side, so if anyone has more suggestions, even a different route, by all means let us know.
In order to keep all communication centralized, if you don’t want to post suggestions here, please contact “San Diego RE Bear” at this email address:
sd.re.b AT hotmail DOT com
Las Vegas Blvd. going south from the strip…Examples all the way…I am sitting out there right now…
Ben has some very sharp, educated and astute people on this blog.
Their combined roundtable insight, imput, humor and comments over the years has proved correct while the FB, GF and so called “Experts” in FIRE, the MSM and Gov’t consistently made total Fools of Themselves and the US taxpayers.
I believe that Ben’s HBB has saved many people from serious housing/financial ruination or at the very least, educated the ones that had to take the housing plunge to minimize many of the inherent associated losses.
That being said Saint Ben, I believe that I am easily the most qualified to be in charge of the US Treasury in this New HHB World Order.
PS. I would also appreciate the keys to the front doors of Fort Knox and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s underground vault and a FAST get-away car please
Money is a viscious pit bull
Is that a slippery, angry pit bull, viscous + vicious?
how about a luscious pit bull? with lipstick.
what have we here.. a pugnacious spell-nazi? with lipschtick of high viscidity.
with lipschtick of high viscidity.
Viscous is what you’ll need in relation to the lubrication required to accept JT treatments…
RE: Countdown to LV Day-1!
Excellent ramble there, Ben
You knock the ball outta the park with this one…
“2. Also, the ‘best and brightest’ in Washington and Wall Street are the idiots who GOT us here and then couldn’t possibly see it coming- does anyone REALLY believe that these same idiots now know the way to get us out??”
All else follows.
Can I work on your Senatorial election committe?
Don’t bother. Ben’s talents would be wasted in the Senate. And the money isn’t all that good either.
Such immense kudos to the blog regulars…You guys were *brave* as well as smart enough to analyse the housing scene.
I have to second that. When I moved to Las Vegas in Jan ‘05, and started looking at houses, I knew something was wrong, (the prices were out of hand!!!) but I didn’t have the financial experience to put that realization into any kind of framework, let alone communicate it to someone else.
Thanks.
Where’d you move from? And why’d you go to Vegas?
Besides the strippers, I mean. That one’s obvious.
Do you like buffets or something?
I LOVE buffets! I was at a reception yesterday, I freakin’ decimated the spinach and ham wraps! Lots of other stuff, too, but I found those to be extra pleasing and therefore focused on them particularly. Cleaned ‘em out. I was the Mowing Machine of Food Doom.
But it wasn’t really my fault. I hadn’t had any food at all for two hours prior, and this’s after I even shook my purse around upside down. Not even a linty lifesaver in there.
Oh, that is not good, Olygal. A lady should always have a lifesaver or something like that in her purse. Lint is optional as the linings on some purses aren’t all that good at making lint, but the candy is really required. Why else to we lug the huge things around? I mean besides it meaning that it is OK to have holes in our pants pockets. If a guy has a hole in his pants pocket he could end up losing money out the hole. We don’t have to worry about such things because of keeping money out of out pants, but still, the candy is important.
You’s like a brilliant genious, I can see that, polly.
But, in my excuse, I already grubbed out the emergency life-saver, you see. It was a second-tier emergency. Luckily, no one had been kilt by the end of it, so that was good.
Whew, huh?!
I was the Mowing Machine of Food Doom.
Ha! I read this after reading your story about hay-balers.
I won’t go into details.
Mmmmm, strippers…
Actually, shortly after moving here and after driving around a bit, I asked myself, “Just how many strip joints does one town need?”
Apparently, lots!
“Just how many strip joints does one town need?”
Apparently, lots!’
Well, yar. That’s one of them ’silly’ questions. You can go straight to ‘D ( ) As many as can meet zoning approval.’
*shakes fluffly head disapprovingly, at lavi having wasted valuable mental time on the subject.*
You can go straight to ‘D ()
Isn’t that the whole point of strip clubs?
…but I didn’t have the financial experience to put that realization into any kind of framework,…
Nor did I, but it sure was fun to fake it
P.S. The people “with the financial experience” kinda look like a bumbling pack of dumb bunnies now anyway, don’t they?
Interesting yesterday when one Dem Senator said that the housing bill was not to prevent foreclosures but to slow them down. Gee, went right over all the alphabet media talking heads.
Really? Who? I’ve been saying that here for months, maybe a year or more.
OK, maybe not a year. When did people first start talking about rescues? Related to one of Barney Franks early proposals, I think. Anyway, I said that it was a rescue for town governments because they needed the time to adjust their bugets without imploding. Mass has prop 2 1/2 which is much like Califirnia’s prop 13 and it can make adjusting to massive real estate depreciation a nightmare because you need the town to vote for an override to adjust the mil rate to make up for it.
Not that this is a bad thing, but it means they can’t adjust to massive loss of value of real estate easily. 20% decline could mean an immediate loss of revenue of 18%. Hard to pull off in a single year, especially if you have any long term contracts outstanding.
OF COURSE, they won’t cut legitimate government waste, but they will leave essential services twisting in the wind…
“OF COURSE, they won’t cut legitimate government waste, but they will leave essential services twisting in the wind…”
And if you’re California, use the largest state tax increase in history to still not pay for it all!
Oops. The slow down thing was related to foreclosures? How could anyone not get that? There isn’t enough money in the bill to STOP the foreclosures. I’ve been talking about slowing down the crash in the economy.
I’d say I need more coffee, but I don’t drink the stuff.
‘I’d say I need more coffee, but I don’t drink the stuff.’
WHA…? What do you do otherwise?
More coffee here please. I was awakened at 6:05 A.M. with a eyeball to eyeball, monsterous black lab puppy sneeze. Then he thought it would be fun to run away with my Kleenex box. Many yucks, a fast shower and lots of coffee were in order.
DON’T MESS with me today
“How To Properly Administer JT Discipline”
I’ll only need about 15 minutes. I’ll put together a concise Power Point presentation with illustrations you won’t soon forget. I’ll try to keep it R rated, but NC17 or worse is a possibilty. Better find a babysitter for the kids.
You guys should call into MSNBC tomorrow and offer to pay Rick Santelli’s round-trip airfair and hotel expenses, so he can come out and hob-nob with all of you in Vegs..
Santelli’s rant yesterday was Sweeeeeeet !!
Sweet but clueless, while all the guys around him were hugely instrumental in this whole debacle. And the guys surrounding him were the many who were benefactors of massive bonuses of this fraud.
So, santelli’s rant was good, but seriously in the wrong venue.
That is like saying in Vegas stripper joint, ‘I don’t believe in looking at nekkid wimen other than my own wife..ooooooh look at that’
Will try this post again.
Sweet but clueless, while all the guys around him were hugely instrumental in this whole debacle. And the guys surrounding him were the many who were benefactors of massive bonuses of this fraud.
So, santelli’s rant was good, but seriously in the wrong venue.
That is like saying in Vegas stripper joint, ‘I don’t believe in looking at nekkid wimen other than my own wife..ooooooh look at that, boobs’
Get a grip desert…Santelli’s rant was about rewarding bad behavior in the bailout…What is so “Clueless” about that ??
Can someone post a link? The liberals were so hot and bothered about it yesterday that they ranted without posting a transcript or youtube.
I was able to watch about half the rant. I thought it was kinda okay. But I thought it rather hypocritical that those people cheering were also probably part of an investment bank that took TARP money. So it’s okay for them to get $$, but not the average Joe?
Financially, banks are too big to fail.
But politically, the American Voters are too big to fail too.
At some point we’ll have to accept that either we pay to cram-down the deadbeat’s mortgage, or we pay to give the deadbeats welfare and other programs. If we do neither, then America will turn into a Dickens novel with people dying in the streets.
1. Santelli has always been against the bank bailouts. He’s been very vocal about this.
2. I’d prefer giving them jobs as part of the work programs. They should not be further burdened by their mortgages, but it’s even more important that they not be “saved” while sacrificing the responsible people (renters and those who only took on debt they could afford to pay and those who refused to overpay).
If we continue to bail the fools out (both borrowers and lenders), we will never learn from our mistakes. Both groups need to suffer the consequences of their behavior. Foreclosure is a gift to the borrowers because they are released from their burdensome liabilities.
I don’t know if you have talked about the emotional state of people who saw this comming. For so many years people told me things like “you never pay off your house” and “real estate NEVER drops” that I now feel validated. I also am very worried about the future of things because of this bubble. I feel validated in my ability to reason out financial and social trends/situations, yet I am nervous that so few saw the obvious. It really is frightening to think back to the past years of having people look at me like I was nuts talking about RE declining and all that would follow.
I am here in Las Vegas anxious to meet “my own kind.” LOL. This is a much needed site that made me feel that I wasn’t alone. Thanks!!
I hope y’all have fun! If you would like to hear the bubble music collage I created for Ben, please email me x110y110 at gmail. It is a 6.9MB MP3, so make sure you have an email inbox that can handle it.
Attendees, please honor my absence with one or more of the following:
1. Randomly screaming “Freeeeeedom!” William Wallace-style
2. Tipping your 40. Oz. to me and/or one of your own fallen homies
3. Burning some houses down
Re: the bubble audio collage:
Good job.
The surf section is particularly entertaining.
And I’m glad you stuck some Bon Jovi in. That made me laugh.
Thanks ET, I wanted to get really nuts (sync samples, beat match songs, match words between songs), but ran out of time.
I hope you laugh once. That’s all that matters!
Jack Daniels? I’m in…
Muggy,
Any Elvis singing Viva Las Vegas?
No, didn’t think of it - too obvious, I guess.
“Burning some houses down” brings to mind a song:
Watch out you might get what you’re after
Cool baby strange but not a stranger
I’m an ordinary guy
Burning down the house
Hold tight wait ’til the party’s over
Hold tight we’re in for nasty weather
There has got to be a way
Burning down the house
Here’s your ticket pack your bag; time for jumpin’ overboard
Transportation is here
Close enough but not too far, maybe you know where you are
Fightin’ fire with fire
All wet yeah you might need a raincoat
Shakedown thieves walking in broad daylight
Three hundred sixty five degrees
Burning down the house
It was once upon a place sometimes I listen to myself
Gonna come in first place
People on their way to work say baby what did you expect
Gonna burst into flame
My house S’out of the ordinary
That’s right Don’t want to hurt nobody
Some things sure can sweep me off my feet
Burning down the house
No visible means of support and you have not seen nothing yet
Everything’s stuck together
I don’t know what you expect staring into the TV set
Fighting fire with fire
Burning down the house
Was Aladinsane right?
February 20 2009 11:10 A.M. EST
Gold pole vaults to $1,000
U.S. stocks lower as bank fears dominate. Gold breaks through $1,000 an ounce, first time in nearly a year.
Yes, Alad was right.
California is out of water, and the Evangs, with their thirst pangs, have taken over L.A. They are engaged in handcannon warfare with the mezzcans. No more passports have been issued, which is a shame, because you can take a krugerrand to Botswana, right now, and get three goats with it.
‘and get three goats with it.’
Wha…? No! Have I not revealed to all of you, many times, why goats are bad? I know goats. They can eat pickups! They can teleport!
And now you urge us to get some. Sigh. Jeebus, man, I just don’t know about you anymore. *shakes head *
You’ve changed.
Mmmmmmmm … goat meat.
Mmmmmm indeed. I have a freezer full of local goat meat.
But the best goat meat is in southeastern Yemen (Wadi Hadhramawt). Besides grazing in the desert and fattening on alfalfa, the goats are fed ground-up date pits and excess production red onions (nothing goes to waste). The meat is exceptionally delicious.
They cook it nicely too, long slow roasting of bones-in chunks of meat with fresh Indian spices. It’s called mindi, and they used to do it buried, but now they use regular ovens.
They clean out the intestines and braid them, tight little three and half inch long pieces. Very rich and tasty.
Was Aladinsane right?
100%
Aladinsane was a golden poster. I appreciated his quick wit and sensible posting. Perhaps we should all send him an email inviting him back to the blog.
‘Perhaps we should all send him an email inviting him back to the blog.’
Well, where we gonna send it TO, then? Jeeze, man, have you not been paying attention here? He done runned away into the wilderness. He said so. He bid a flippant and pseudo-regretful adieu, even.
…say, what was your name again?….
SUGUY, did you read everything he posted? Are you seeing evidence of people eating each other’s faces off in Syracuse?
Alad pimped gold as a hedge against inflation (duh) and the total, cannibal-inducing collapse of society (stupid). Everything else was either entertaining, or an insult to people who enjoy civilization.
Don’t be so quick to swallow the propaganda just because he can riff like Hendrix.
Alad researched this!
It’s amazing how people can see the fear meme to goose sales in RE but not the fear meme to goose sales in other objects, isn’t it?
Buy gold before you get priced out forever!
Say what you will about Alad, but he was the most entertaining poster this blog has ever seen. His wit is unmatched, and he is sorely missed. I didn’t agree with everything he said, but who cares? His pimping gold was no more annoying than the countless others who love to yammer on about their day trading successes.
Gamblers? 17 noir!
Wasn’t there a guy who made special arrangements to try to double all his life’s worth on a roulette wheel in Vegas and won?
Oh, yeah, I was there. I believe I threw up at least once. Besides that, it was great.
Why go to Vegas to throw up when you can do so in comfort in your own back yard(*)?
(*) or other local equivalents.
Olygal…this one is for you
Goat breaks into Dodge County home, eats fresh chocolate cake…
When she opened the front door of her home on Lake Road to let her dog in Saturday morning, a full-grown goat burst into the house, jumped onto a kitchen counter and helped itself to a freshly baked chocolate cake, according to the Dodge County Sheriff’s Department.
http://portagedailyregister.com/news/local/article_25b9a53c-fd80-11dd-90b1-001cc4c002e0.html
I won’t be there, but I would like to see some discussion about the difference between “truth” and “conventional wisdom”.
The predictions of this blog for the past four years have been pretty much spot-on, along with the explainations of how Wall Street would melt down when truth trumped fantasy.
We are currently seeing revisionist history, by blaming subprime mortgages for the meltdown, while ignoring the 900 lb gorilla walking in the door (ALT-A resets/walk aways).
The MSM is currently feeding us dog crap, by saying that the latest plan will “stabilize” prices, and that current homeowners should be supportive, because it will stabilize prices at an artificially high level. But “gravity” says prices won’t stabilize until the demand for houses exceeds the supply (which IMO won’t be happening anytime soon).
Can artificially boosting “confidence” alter the laws of gravity? Everything I’m seeing with my own eyes has convinced me the bad news isn’t finished yet. Am I too pessimistic, or are the PTB pumping out happy gas to keep everyone from doing the final run for the exits?
Obama’s plan will NOT stabilize house prices. Even Obama, in his speech the other day, laid out a laundry list of people who would not be bailed out, like greedy flippers.
Well I’m sorry Barack, all you need is ONE greedy FB to who is not helped foreclose and go BK. That will set your comp. The only way to stabilize home prices is the rescue them ALL, which is impossible.
It sounds to me like the plan will keep people in their homes. Forever.
“Can artificially boosting “confidence” alter the laws of gravity? Everything I’m seeing with my own eyes has convinced me the bad news isn’t finished yet. Am I too pessimistic, or are the PTB pumping out happy gas to keep everyone from doing the final run for the exits?”
When I keep seeing demand for many items, not just the purely discretionary, declining 10, 20, 30, 40, and sometimes 50+ percent on a YOY basis, it’s quite clear the bad news isn’t close to being over. The question for me isn’t whether this downturn will be severe, last for years, and affect many countries around the world, but what non-economic impacts will happen such as happened in the 1930’s?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/21/world/europe/21latvia.html
“Latvia’s center-right coalition government collapsed Friday, a victim of the country’s growing economic and political turmoil. It was the second European government, after Iceland, to disintegrate because of the international financial crisis.”
Let the fun begin! We’re hanging out in one sweet suite. It’s good to see some of these people again, and to meet others for the first time. BTW, for any of the attendees checking in here, interviews with the film crew start at 9:30 AM.
Good morning, all! Hope you have a real fun hoedown out there in LV. In a few short hours, some of you will be facing a TV camera. Do us proud and have a great time.
Morning Mr. Ben & HBB “Gang”…
The view from the “Sweet” suite is awesome! (especially when the helicopters fly straight at your windows! Driving in to town…Mr. Cole (age 7) asked what the name of a housing track was that was on the entrance to a new “development” (he’s just learning to read long words)..it was called: “Paradise Estates” (mostly empty units)…his reply was and I quote:
“Dad, they should called it: “Bankruptcy Estates”
Can you tell us who’s there?
1009 Cliff Drive - $9,995,000
Broker Preview: Wednesday, February 25th, 9:00am to 1:00pm
Reduced from $14,500,000 for immediate sale.
You guys could talk amongst yourselves about this treasure and its price.
*******************************************************************
This is the finest residence to be offered overlooking the oceanfront of Shaw’s Cove in many years. Completed in recent years, this warm contemporary design includes rich materials and exquisite detailing. Floor to ceiling glass walls afford spectacular views of the cove and ocean from most every room. Expansive terraces on each level are perfect for entertaining and include an exterior fireplace and spa. The beach is easily accessed through a private gate from the property. This is a rare opportunity to acquire a stylish, oceanfront turn-key residence in a near-perfect location.
SARA HINMAN 949.
BRAD HINMAN 949..
ROB GIEM 949.
**********IF you guys want the emails, um, just to say Hi and “goodluckwiththatoneyouguys”!!! let me know.
Topic suggestions for those enjoying the splendor of Vegas at an affordable price:
1) Is it much worse this time, or do things typically look this bleak in the middle of a recession?
2) Does it make any sense whatever to venture into the home purchase market when policy wonks are openly admitting that the labor market will be in the tank for at least the next three years, and possibly longer? (I personally am bracing myself for the talk with my wife about the likelihood that we will remain renters for at least the next three years…)
Op-Ed Columnist
Who’ll Stop the Pain?
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: February 19, 2009
Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the most recent meeting of its open market committee — the group that sets interest rates. Most press reports focused either on the Fed’s downgrade of the near-term outlook or on its adoption of a long-run 2 percent inflation target.
But my eye was caught by the following chilling passage (yes, things are so bad that the summarized musings of central bankers can keep you up at night): “All participants anticipated that unemployment would remain substantially above its longer-run sustainable rate at the end of 2011, even absent further economic shocks; a few indicated that more than five to six years would be needed for the economy to converge to a longer-run path characterized by sustainable rates of output growth and unemployment and by an appropriate rate of inflation.”
So people at the Fed are troubled by the same question I’ve been obsessing on lately: What’s supposed to end this slump? No doubt this, too, shall pass — but how, and when?
To appreciate the problem, you need to know that this isn’t your father’s recession. It’s your grandfather’s, or maybe even (as I’ll explain) your great-great-grandfather’s.
“All participants anticipated that unemployment would remain substantially above its longer-run sustainable rate at the end of 2011, even absent further economic shocks; a few indicated that more than five to six years would be needed for the economy to converge to a longer-run path characterized by sustainable rates of output growth and unemployment and by an appropriate rate of inflation.”
That was the section in Krugman’s column from the Fed notes that got my attention. That’s not the consensus view and certainly not the view on the MSM, but it’s probably much closer to the eventual reality if we make generally sounder policy choices.
Absent further financial shocks? We haven’t even begun to see the primes defaulting yet, which is due in 2010. We’re in for a rough ride.
Have any polls come out yet on Obama’s “Screw the Prudent” mortgage bailout plan?
Friday, February 20, 2009
Mortgage bailout plan sparks anger
Mortgage troubles
President Obama’s housing plan will help nearly 9 million homeowners avoid foreclosure or refinance. But the plan is drawing ire from homeowners who won’t be receiving any help. Nancy Marshall Genzer reports.
Tess Vigeland: Banks, of course, are but one facet of this crisis and recovery attempt. Earlier this week President Barack Obama unveiled a new foreclosure prevention plan to generally positive reviews from economists. But never mind them. Even though the plan could help as many as nine million homeowners, some of the other millions have a little something to say about that. Marketplace’s Nancy Marshall Genzer has that story.
Nancy Marshall Genzer: Yesterday CNBC’s Rick Santelli was at the Chicago Board of Trade. He started complaining that Obama’s plan rewards people who took out mortgages they knew they couldn’t afford. Then he turned to the traders.
Rick Santelli: How many of you people want to pay for your neighbor’s mortgage that has an extra bathroom and can’t pay their bills? Raise their hand!
Santelli seems to have touched a populist nerve.
Mare Runge: Those of us who did buy within our budget and bought something we could afford, we’re the ones who are getting screwed now.
Mare Runge is upset that she can’t sell or refinance her Chicago home. She doesn’t qualify for government help.
Spin doctors are hard at work trying to bolster the popularity of the Obama hosing rescue plan…
Robert Gibbs Mocks CNBC’s Rick Santelli & The Idea Of Obama Rewarding Irresponsibility
Gibbs mentions Freddie and Fannie, lower rates, and the benefit to existing mortgage holders of lower rates. He encourages those existing mortgage holders to go to those lenders and try to re-fi. What he ignores is that for those that are upside down on the loan, the rates are irrelevant. That can’t refi.
In the end, it’s probably not worth stressing too much over this plan because it likely won’t help very many and therefore won’t cost very much either - similar in that regard to most of the previous efforts.
I thought that part of the Obama plan was to allow underwaters to refi. It’s more financially prudent to walk, but these buyers weren’t exactly financially prudent to begin with.
I started reading the blog back in 2005. Massachusetts was the first state to see the bubble burst. I bought my former house in 2003 with the ill-gotten gains from the house before it, which went up 2.5 times the purchase price in 1994.
I had a job change and less income, higher property tax, utilities, etc. so I decided to sell house #2 in 2005. We started the price high enough to cover the purchase price and broker fees, but no dice. I took it off the market waiting for “next year.” I went on the market again for a while in 2006, a while in 2007 and back on in 2008. By 2008, I had cut the price to below what I had paid and put into it.
Due in large part to what I learned on this blog, I bit the bullet and sold the damn thing for a 50K loss. Bought another house in a less toney area for 1/2 of what I paid for the previous house. Had to buy, because I run a small animal rescue and renting is not an option. Prices have continued to fall, and I doubt I could give the house away now, 6 months later.
Back in 2003, when my junky house sold at full price before it went on the market, I knew something was up. My buyers had no dependable income, but somehow got 110% of the purchase price of the house. I started telling people that something was really wrong, but everyone wrote me off as a nutcase.
Well, here on this blog, I found many fellow nutcases, who, unfortunately were correct about where this thing was headed.
So, fellow nutcases, have a blast in LV. Wish I could join you.
Guys - I am so bummed.
I wasn’t able to make it out. Work has been crazy, and there is no way that I could get out of working today. I guess that I will have to do my own foreclosure tour.
Have fun, guys! Can’t wait to see pictures and hear stories.
btw - on the way into work, they had an expert on who was discussing the merits of renting, and how it’s a better, more flexible model for today’s economy.
This blog has been a crystal ball. Everytime I open the paper, or turn on the TV, I read and hear things that you guys told me were coming. It’s unreal.
Thanks again - I wish I could have come out. So bummed!
I will catch the next reunion, promise.
The expert was on npr, by the way.