A Bits Bucket For Leaving Las Vegas
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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How did the interviews go?
And everything else? Are there pictures up yet (are there going to be pictures put up)? Anyone burn any hotels/condos/homes down? Anyone still in jail?
Those less fortunate want to know!
It seems we all were there in spirit, as we are waiting on every word and picture. Travel safely. Download fast!
Happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.
How many posters showed up in LV?
I think everyone affected was able to throw bail. As for the burned condos, I really don’t remember, but I did awake smelling a bit like smoke.
I took the biggest, soapiest shower when I got home. My hair smelled like smoke, my sweater. I was like “ew”.
Hwy walking around a very,very….empty casino…7:30 am.
Yesterday, while siting poolside with only around 15 people @ Mandalay Bay… I began wondering just exactly how much Heloc $$$$$$$$$$ money has been poured down the “Lost Wages” room hotels…If, 2009-2012 growth was model on tourism…they might have a “long term capital” type of problem.
Same @ the Silverton Casino south of the strip…
scdave,
Great meeting ya ;-)…we are going to say our “farewells” around 10am…then head to Boulder Dam!
I am on my way down right now..
Don’t forget the immortal words of Leslie Appleton-Young:
“it’s sticky on the way down.”
What kind of libation does one enjoy at 7:30 am in Vegas? Wild Turkey, neat?
Hi Everyone!
Hope you’re having decent trips home or having fun hanging out today or already safely home.
Really great meeting y’all.
Thanks again Ben and SD RE Bear for an excellent job.
I’ll be posting photos in a Picasaweb album later.
How many prospective home buyers have six months of emergency savings plus no credit card debt plus a thirty-percent downpayment ready to make a purchase plus the balz to buy in the face of the worst economic downturn since the 1930s before prices have shown any sign of bottoming out? I personally doubt the $8K knifecatcher’s purchase incentive will do the trick to stimulate much purchase demand.
GAIL MARKSJARVIS
New $8,000 tax credit can help home buyers
2:00 a.m. February 22, 2009
Receiving $8,000 to buy a house is a tempting deal.
Uncle Sam is willing to offer it to you, under certain conditions.
Under the economic stimulus plan that became law last week, if you are buying a home for the first time, you can get your hands on up to $8,000. In fact, if you are one of the savvy people who saw the housing-bubble threat in 2005, sold your home and have been renting since then, this could be an especially sweet deal if you go bargain-hunting this year.
…
Despite the attractive credit, however, buying a home is not a simple decision.
Home prices are still dropping, and unemployment is rising, so think carefully about whether your job is secure and how you will pay for your home if you lose income.
As a rule of thumb, people should not buy homes if the monthly payments will consume more than 28 percent of their income
and if they are carrying balances on their credit cards from month to month.
Before buying, run through your income and expenses to make sure a house is affordable now and will continue to be if you face a layoff. For a new homeowner, keep in mind that you must calculate mortgage payments; condo fees, if applicable; property taxes; homeowner’s insurance; utilities; and maintenance. As a rule of thumb, it’s wise to put aside $150 a month for home repairs in case you must call in the plumber or face some other unbudgeted expense. Try working a budget with kiplinger.com/tools/budget/ index.html.
To compare the cost of renting versus owning a house, try http://www.dinkytown.net/java/MortgageRentvsBuy.html.
Also, as you look into your future, do not forget to keep savings worth at least six months’ gross income handy to cover your basic needs in the event of a job loss. And consider saving for retirement a necessity, not an afterthought after mortgage payments.
Gail MarksJarvis is a personal finance columnist for the Chicago Tribune and author of “Saving for Retirement Without Living Like a Pauper or Winning the Lottery.” Contact her at gmarksjarvis@tribune.com .
Will Obama send troops?
Britons flee French island of Guadeloupe as rioters turn on white families
Britons are among thousands of tourists fleeing Guadeloupe after full scale urban warfare erupted on the French Caribbean island.
Trouble broke out on the island earlier last month after protesters began rioting over high prices and low wages.
But the situation escalated this week after protesters began turning on rich white families as they demanded an end to colonial control of the economy.
The troubles come at the height of the holiday season, with thousands of mainly British, French and American tourists on the paradise tropical island.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1150062/Britons-flee-French-island-Guadeloupe-rioters-turn-white-families.html
Trouble in paradise.
Wait until this happens in Hawaii.
Gee, if it hasn’t happened in Hawaii already, do you think it will now? I guess maybe from job losses, but people in Hawaii have options that others don’t. My brother shared a tiny rented house with five other guys, had at least two $500 beater cars, would grab breakfast off the star fruit tree near the driveway (better alternative than $8 a box Cheerios). There is a whole culture of living on very little that exists on the islands.
He was living on less than $20k as a parochial school teacher.
know some poeple who were stationed at the air force base in Hawaii for a few years - they said there was a lot of resentment of “outsiders” by the natives.
also apparently a pretty corrupt place - they had to pay for private school because the public school funds tended to disappear. some public schools apparently using history text books that are decades old.
..and this will work for the rest of population, how?
Polly, this is going to happen everywhere.
Eco,
It won’t work anywhere else. I was just questioning whether there would be riots in Hawaii. The underclass is very used to living poor, and the climate is condusive to living on a relative’s or friend’s lanai, or in a car or even outside. Not going to work in Wisconsin. Also, you might get riots in the middle class in Hawaii, but a lot of them are from other places and would move back to the mainland if paradise soured.
This will not happen in Hawaii for many reasons. First you don’t have the black vs white dynamic here. Racism exists, but in a very subtle way. There is no majority here. Hawaii is as close to a racial melting pot as there is.
As Polly pointed out life is kinda laid back and if you know how the system works it is not a bad thing. Make no mistake we will get hit hard by the disaster. But is just isn’t Hawaiian style to riot. It would be more Hawaiian styly to break into your car while you are at the beach.
It also helps to have daily flights to the mainland so its not like you have to be here.
Since statehood Hawaii has been a very pro union. There is a large middle class here. Also a few large military bases too. I just can’t see that happening here.
Perhaps The Messiah’s removal of Churchhill’s bust from the White House this week helped fuel the tension.
Swift move, Messiah!
Houses for every(black)one!
We were in Guadeloupe a month ago on a stopover crossing the Atlantic. The beaches were nice but they wanted to charge $200 for an 8 mile taxi ride. It’s hard to be sympathic with a hoard of chearts. Maybe they’re realizing the false sense of wealth just passed them by.
FYI: Guadeloupe is not worth visiting, stick with Virgin Is or Puerto Rico.
Why would you ask a question like that Spook? Please explain your question.
Has America sent troops to other countries where Americans are staying when rioting is occurring?
Why aren’t you asking if the French will be sending troops since the “island is a French overseas department?”
“Has America sent troops to other countries where Americans are staying when rioting is occurring?”
Sort of.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/october/25/newsid_3207000/3207509.stm
“Why aren’t you asking if the French will be sending troops since the “island is a French overseas department?”
The French? Send troops? Bwahahahahaha! My grandfather was a WW1 vet who had to offload ordnance from a French merchant ship at Marseille because it was in danger of blowing up. He and his grunts did the work, while the French officials present looked on. Of course, they gave him a medal afterwards, they’re big on giving medals.
Has America sent troops to other countries where Americans are staying when rioting is occurring?
Looks like someone doesn’t remember Grenada and Ronald Reagan. But Guadeloupe is part of France, not a banana republic, so Uncle Sam is going to have to let the French take care of it.
Historical factoid: After the British captured Canada from France in the 18th century, they offered to trade it back in return for Guadeloupe and Martinique. The French turned them down, and the islands remain French to this day.
Yogurt,
Thanks for the reminder. I did forget. Didn’t agree with the invasion.
“After the British captured Canada from France in the 18th century, they offered to trade it back in return for Guadeloupe and Martinique. The French turned them down, and the islands remain French to this day.”
Bwahahahahaha! Oh, lordy, that is SO French!
Don’t forget that Guadeloupe was the fabled “sugar island” and that the sugar trade to Europe made great fortunes. All that Canada had to offer at that time was some lumber and fish. Also remember that in those days “Canada” was limited to what we now call Quebec, and didn’t include the maritime provinces. Heck Newfoundland and Labrador didn’t even join Canada until after WWII.
I posted this over in the dogcrap thread. I’m reposting. I know it doesn’t have a whole lot to do with housing, but if we don’t have human rights, housing doesn’t matter much. I’m calling my Senators and Rep on Monday. I’m pleading with any HBBers who give a darn and value their lives and those of their families to please at least give a call to their Senators and reps as well, and at least let their friends, family and associates be informed on this matter. This is NOT just a China thing, no matter how they spin it. Human rights matter, everywhere. If the US repudiates human rights in another country, then it can and WILL happen here. This is probably the most sincere post I’ve ever written.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/4735087/Hillary-Clinton-Chinese-human-rights-secondary-to-economic-survival.html
+1
Amen.
Sadly, even people here in the US believe their rights are granted them by the government.
Government is just a group of other people. If necessary, I’ll secure my unalienable rights outlined in the Declaration of Independence through the butt of a gun or the haft of a knife. Why should I put my faith in other people instead of in myself?
This episode reminds me of a song….
“I see your true colors shining through…”
I’ve always said the dems did nothing about shrub because they were watching with fascination and anticipation, wondering how they could get in on the action, most notably Madame Mao.
So much for this administration and human rights. Interesting that it would be Bammy’s administration to vocalize a laissez faire attitude toward human rights. Nation of cowards? Feh. An administration of snivellers.
Several cars around here have both “Obama/Biden” and “Free Tibet” bumperstickers on them.
Oh well.
Yep, people get blinded by partisanship. There are many decent folks who think this administration equates to human rights and they will have a difficult time reconciling the pronouncements of Madame Mao with this adminstration’s supposed aims. Their heads may explode in the process. They are going on the false assumption that OF COURSE an African American president and Attorney General would be concerned about human rights. Apparently not. Madame Mao speaks for the administration.
‘Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together - MASS HYSTERIA!’
‘Human sacrifice, d
ogsucks and cats living together - MASS HYSTERIA!’Madame Mao
it fits so well!
Welcome to the cruel world of geopolitics. We are NOT going to tell China how run their country when we have our own plate full of problems and if China pisses off her own citizens, so much the better for us.
No, I don’t like it, but that the way it goes. What’s that old saying, if everyone’s house, including yours, is burning, who’s do you try and save first?
And right now, our house is about to burn to the ground.
and she wants China to buy T bonds or WE are tortured as a nation….
I guess it’s; we both look the other way and hope (there is that Hope word again!)… it all works out fine
Great foreign policy on both sides
Stating that human rights is secondary to the economic and climate change crises is one of the most insane statements I have ever heard. We have these two crises BECAUSE human rights are being trashed. If human rights were a FACT rather than a nice idea, we wouldn’t have an economic or environmental crisis.
Isn’t this pretty much just making explicit what has been US policy for decades? We’ve been ignoring Chinese, Pakistani, Saudi Arabian, Texan, etc. human rights abuses for years. And we supported Sadam Hussein when it was convininent too.
It isn’t pretty, but it is honest - or at least a smidge closer to honesty than we have seen in foreign policy pronouncements for a while.
“Isn’t this pretty much just making explicit what has been US policy for decades?”
That is exactly my point. I had hoped for a reversal of policy, considering who the alleged president is.
“It isn’t pretty, but it is honest - or at least a smidge closer to honesty than we have seen in foreign policy pronouncements for a while.”
Sure. And I hope everyone understands now. It is grim.
No arguing there palmetto…
But you also must look at religious rights too, we don”t kill each other over “my god is better then your god”. Like most of the world does.
I always tell people the only time i step into a house of worship is when i get paid for it. eg: Videotaping a wedding.
Palmetto,
I like your anger. Few things are worth getting more mad about than abuses of human rights. I am a “bleeding heart libertarian” - I don’t think that is an oxymoron.
I’ve told people for years that our growing dependency on China was a national security issue as they have so much leverage. It is interesting we are no longer supplying arms to Taiwan. Basically Hillary is saying screw all these religious adherents and humans crushed until the heavy Red hand of communism - we need the money.
It is hard to believe our country has been reduced to this level - it is frankly immoral. Our most basic tenets of our founding fathers have been abandoned: the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. This does not bode well.
I am very disappointed. We have sold our soul.
“We have sold our soul.”
“We” haven’t yet sold our soul. Our government has sold theirs.
I still support human rights and will always do so.
And if the US collapses uterly how does that advance human rights in your book??
Palmy,
The gubermint has sold it’s soul - not us as individuals.
Measton,
The US has squandered it’s birthright in my opinion. The foreign dependency has left a huge exposure to be dominated by others will. The borrow is slave to lender as the old proverb goes. The destruction of the US will certainly not advance human rights - and we gave the power to destroy us to others w/o a fight. They have us by the short hairs. This is not unlike a drug addict who steals money from their mom’s dresser to avoid withdrawal or a prison punk who puts out to avoid being beat up.
You realize that because of the Bush admin, we have NO credibility with the rest of world when it comes to human rights at the moment?
Until we get our own house in order, we can’t go around telling everybody how to run their business.
Remember, when you fix something, it usually has to be done in a certain order.
“You realize that because of the Bush admin, we have NO credibility with the rest of world when it comes to human rights at the moment?”
Yes, of course I realize that. I realized this the day the UN representatives of Sudan smiled contemptuously when the US rep complained about the situation in Darfur. I had hoped we could at least repair our credibility in the area of human rights, but I see that Bammy will follow the same Bush policies and then some.
“You realize that because of the Bush admin, we have NO credibility with the rest of world when it comes to human rights at the moment?”
Who says? You?
Hate to say it, but it’s in Walmart shoppers’ best interests to see Chicom enslavement continue. A free and democratic China may not be quite as willing to sell out their workers and savers in order to keep their Nomenklatura in power.
Then again, with 40k factories gone and 20M workers out, we may not have much to say in the matter for very long…
(And I wonder if the Chinese peasants will remember how cozy America got with their commisars…)
Zombie housing market?
It’s looks like the administrations effort to interfere with the free market are setting us up for a Zombie housing market. Their efforts to try and forestall foreclosures and artificially prop up housing values could cause the housing market to languish for years longer than it would have. In my area we already have a market that is almost locked up, by sellers hoping for their wishing prices. The false hope being given will will only make it drag on longer. I can see this problem lasting close to a decade. It will be a lost decade for real estate values.
And where’s the help for renters? Why are renters being treated like second class citizens? In this economy,renters are facing the same challenges as people paying mortgages, for their shelter. When a renter suffers a drop in income, they still have to keep a roof over their heads, just like mortgage holders. Renters pay income taxes. Why are they not benefiting? Why are the other 30+ percent of the country not getting the same help, but are asked to pay for the problems?
“Why are the other 30+ percent of the country not getting the same help, but are asked to pay for the problems?”
That’s basically the question Rick Santelli asked, though not in so many words.
I loved (not) the snivelling response he received from Bammy’s press secretary, holding up a copy of Bammy’s housing plan and telling Santelli to read it. Oh, yah, he should have held up the 5,000 page stimulus plan, which I’ll bet the press secretary hasn’t read, let alone the members of Congress who didn’t read it. And of course the snickering members of the press.
I don’t recall the name of that Press Secretary, but he reminded me of Darth Rove. Truly, a piece of work.
Funny, I don’t remember his name either, but he also reminded me of Rove. Another sniveller to bait any naysayers. No difference between the parties, we need to get over the Dem/Rep thing. It’s just one party.
Agree there’s not a dime’s worth of difference between the two major parties. This is why I call them “Republicrats.” Both exist solely to maintain their hold on the levers of power and privilege, while scamming the fools who go on voting for them election after election despite the blindingly obvious consequences of doing so.
+1 for Sammy.
+2 sammy. talk differnt, do same
Well said. I had an opportunity, a few years ago, to have dinner with one of the most prominent scientists of our time. Eventually, talk turned to politics and I unveiled my theory that the political ladder acts as a sieve that strains out any people who have a stitch of integrity. I was basing this on my own experience as a new undergrad studying political science. I made it about 6 months before I realized that there was no place for me. Even the professors divided every issue into stark liberal vs. conservative arguments. There was simply no respect for a pragmatic position and my views were always dismissed as quaint. I never found a way to make ‘responsible’ seem as sexy and appealing as more radical views. Well, after relating my philosophy to Mr. Scientist, he dismissed me as a complete fool and told me about the wonderful, hard-working, country-first Dem senators that he is cozy with. That’s when I realized that our nation’s distorted view of politics isn’t so much a matter of intelligence. It’s more about perspective and life experience. I’m not hopeful that we will ever break this cycle. I think it’s best to understand the nature of the game, if for no other reason, to protect my own sanity.
IIRC its Robert Gibbs
Not glib.
Keep up the good work, Rick.
“I don’t recall the name of that Press Secretary”
His name is Robert Gibbs. I watched his response to Santelli and you could see the concerned look on his face, even though he was trying to down play it with humor. As mikey said friday, “Rick scared the living $hit out of a lot of rich and powerful people”
A day of protest in each state’s capital? Protesting is free when you got no job to go to.
Which means there should be plenty of protesters soon.
Yeah…b..b..but I only PLAY the role of a HBB rabble-rouser when Ben and the Arizonia haze is partying…out of town
Viva da Taxpayer’s Bailout Revolution
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/02/20/gibbs-v-santelli-he-shoul_n_168645.html
Obama’s new spin-meister, Gibbs, offers a sneering response to Rick Santelli’s justified tirade.
And I hope that Santelli gets on the air with the 5,000 pages of the stimulus package and asks if Gibb has read IT, and if not how he can pretend to answer questions about it.
You guys are my kind of folks. When I tell people both parties are the same, they do their diatribe of Hannity, Rush, or Air America hiccup of the propaganda. Most Americans are zombies.
I started to like Combs (a little) on the radio. At least he let people talk, had some objectivity, and was intelligent.
“I started to like Combs” That would be Puffy. You mean Colmes, right?
awaiting.. both parties are the same. check.
hoping against hope perhaps that it will all turn out better than we are suspecting.
Dang I hope this turns out better than it has been for me/us for the last 8 yrs. And particularly since my -35% 6 yrs ago.
“In my area we already have a market that is almost locked up, by sellers hoping for their wishing prices.”
The only areas of San Diego where sales have picked up are where prices crashed the most. High-end areas where sellers are holding out for their wishing prices are moribund.
The new idea buzzing around DC:
Tax the renters to pay for the home slaves.
Tax the landlords so they can raise our rents.
Tax my housepets and my oxygen intake.
Tax me Up the booty!
I guess dumbsh!ts don’t realize ya can’t squeeze blood out of a rock?
Blood out of a turnip. Water out of a rock.
Actually it looks like the tax proposal is going to be to let the highest marginal rate revert to what it was under Clinton for those making over $250K and to tax hedge fund and private equity managers on their management fees as wage income instead of as long term capital gains. I can’t say I have a lot of problems with that.
And I like the fixes (not 100% but better than nothing) that they are going to do to budget projections - put the wars back on the books, price tax cuts out to 10 years rather than just 5, and a few others. Not fixing the whole SS budget boondoggle, but that has been messed up since the 60’s I think. The longitudinal comparisons would be all screwed up if they changed those.
A good, reasoned analysis.
It isn’t a reasoned analysis in these circumstances until the numbers pencil out and the assumptions of what the stimulous and bailouts are going to do are part of that. I’m afraid I don’t have those numbers.
Despite any doubts about whether the numbers pencil out to what the administration says they will, these two proposals are a step in the right direction.
Actually it looks like the tax proposal is going to be to let the highest marginal rate revert to what it was under Clinton for those making over $250K and to tax hedge fund and private equity managers on their management fees as wage income instead of as long term capital gains. I can’t say I have a lot of problems with that.
It’s about time.
Taxing management fees as wage income makes sense to me, and I’ll cry no tears for those who pull down more than a quarter-mil. I’ll bet Lil’ Ricky Santelli and his Indignant Financial Dude Cheerleading Corps are less than excited about either of these particular measures, though. Will they throw a second Tea Party for all them poor rich folks?
… put the wars back on the books …
Wha’? That’s crazy talk.
How can you put a price tag on no-bid contracts for unnecessary warfare?
“Not fixing the whole SS budget boondoggle, but that has been messed up since the 60’s I think.”
Actually, it’s been messed up since its inception. It’s fundamentally the way it’s designed… at the time they started the program, they didn’t have pension funds to put into it, so they had to do a pay-as-you-go system. And then they used funds in it as general funds, and well… I’m not expecting any SS, are you?
I’m cautiously optimistic, emphasis on the caution. But I’m not talking about the pyramidy nature of the whole system. I’m talking about the fact that the excess of Social Security payments that come in over the ones that are going out are counted against the regular budget to lower the deficit. Remember Al Gore and his “lock box” rants? That is the accounting fix they aren’t implementing.
I still maintain that those who have high incomes and huge investment vehicles should be opted out of receiving ss.
Careful what you wish for …
Roosevelt defeated all attempts to “means test” SS, reasoning that only a universal goodie would avoid attracting (probably fatal) popular and congressional opposition.
I still maintain that those who have high incomes and huge investment vehicles should be opted out of receiving ss.
Careful what you wish for …
Roosevelt defeated all attempts to “means test” SS, reasoning that only a universal goodie would avoid attracting (probably fatal) popular and congressional opposition.
Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.
If you haven’t owned a home over the last 3 years, you’re considered a first-time buyer. Perhaps, that’s the bone they are throwing at bitter renters. What’s more, if you buy and fail to pay your mortgage, you can double dip, by qualifying for all the new benefits extended to existing home-debtors.
What source did you use for the 3 yr cut off? That’s great news for us. We sold before that and have been renting in h@ll awaiting to re-enter. Do you know if that $8,000- tax credit can be used 2 consecutive years? (IIRC, the first credit for home purchases had that benefit, but had to be paid back.) Does this one?
Google “first time home-buyer credit.” Also, take a look at irs form 5405 updated for 2009.
Careful, however, prices are likely to fall further in some areas negating the credit. Plus, it’s unlikely you’ll be able to qualify for the full amount. Moreover, there are sticky restrictions like closing before Dec 1st NOT 31st, 2009. Lastly, this credit was better than the last one. You don’t have to pay it back. So, they’ll probably get bigger and better over time.
irs dot gov/pub/irs-pdf/f5405.pdf
Logically, someone who has “owned” a home for three years since it went underwater should also qualify.
Oh. Check box 7.C, sir.
Here is your stimulus, and here’s your sign.
I think, but not sure, that the $8000 is for single income. For joint filing it would only be 4400.
And where’s the help for renters? Why are renters being treated like second class citizens?
You’re missing the point. Responsible renters who prudently sat out the housing bubble now get the warm feeling that comes from extending charity, albeit involuntarily, to the fools who got in over their heads based on their greed-fueled expectation that rising home prices would offset their toxic mortgage terms.
Sarcasm off.
Don’t blame me - I voted for Ron Paul.
I’m a renter and the most help I need is with patience, thank you very much. The risk premium on borrowing is going to go up - way up. Eventually, they will have to let the rate on new mortgages float to its natural level, and my downpayment savings will get more and more and more valuable, even if I can’t get any interest on the darn thing.
Patience is boring, but valuable.
Time is most certainly on your side.
Unless you die or grow too old waiting for your ship to come in.
Since I don’t have outrageously expensive tastes, it isn’t any real burden to save while I wait. As a matter of fact, I need help learning how to spend a bit more. I really should take more vacations.
Aw, PB why so glum? Don’t let the PTB’s flailing get ya down.
The fact is, right now more sellers need Polly’s dough more than Polly probably needs Polly’s dough - more and more everyday.
I am not really glum — just playin’ with ya…
Since I have no plans to keep saving and saving and then still using only a 20% downpayment (I’ll boost it up as high as I can manage by negotiating the price down), I figure I’m just making extra principal payments on my eventual residence. I don’t get to live in it while I am doing that, but I also don’t have to divert money away from principal to pay taxes, interest, insurance and maintenance.
“I figure I’m just making extra principal payments on my eventual residence.”
Polly — Sounds like you are on the right track. I did something along these lines while saving for my first residence in the late 1980’s. At the time, many people were buying homes and prices were rocketing up, but so were long-term interest rates, so I sunk my dough into long-term Treasuries, then did not buy until after the end of the early 1990s recession. There was a great deal of inventory on the market after that recession, which amounted to an embarrassment of riches for anyone in the market at the time. I think it will be similar this time a couple of years from now.
My one caution is that you make sure you diversify your savings sufficiently so that some unexpected economic surprise does not torpedo your downpayment savings strategy. For instance, I would be cautious about saving it all in short-term cash, even though under the deflation scenario, that is the best strategy, as the Fed has clearly signaled they prefer inflation to deflation and will target policy accordingly.
“As a matter of fact, I need help learning how to spend a bit more.”
Order the filet, ALWAYS THE FILET. And not 6 oz., get the 9. Finish with creme brulee. But first, tell the waiter you want the bone-driest red they’ve got.
That’s all you need to know about spending more money.
Yup. Agree with you polly.
I get a little antsy at times, however when I see what’s happening out there I know time is on my side.
Please keep posting. I’ve learned about how government works from you. Thank you polly.
You are very welcome. Hope it isn’t too depressing. I really do love my job. Just answered a work e-mail a few minutes ago.
Quick recap from my point of view
(Anyone feel free to correct any errors)
Friday:
I reached the suite about 5PM. I knocked and was greeted by SDRE Bear, scored my schwag (shirt & popcorn) and a beer.
I only spent about two hours there, but during that time there was a lively discussion going around the room - it was like a business seminar - only fun and with booze!
Probably the most interesting and lively discussion was between CA Renter and Bink about whether or not the people at the top of finance and government actually knew how bad things would get. CA insisted they knew, Bink was of the mind that there were too many layers of corruption and incompetence for any of them to piece together the true scope of the disaster they were crafting.
Don’t know how the discussion ended, but I hear it wound up sometime around 3AM.
Saturday:
I reached the suite about 11AM. The door was propped open on the deadbolt. There was a sticky-note which read “shhh. Filming in progress”
I opened the door as silently as I could and eased in. To my left, I saw the cameraman. I knew that if you don’t want to interrupt filming, it’s best to get behind the camera, which is what I did.
There was only the cameraman and Rolf, the director. TC was being interviewed. When it wrapped up, I asked where everyone else was. Rolf pointed to the suite’s bedroom. I knocked on the door and people on the other side started loudly shushing me - they thought the filming was still going on!
After an hour or so of chatting (the interviews were moved to another room) we all assembled and boarded the bus.
We pretty much followed the revised (Two Hour Tour) route. With stops at each location for much exploration, photography, discussion and just plain wonder.
I am still amazed at some people’s courage!
The revised map of the route is here, along with links to the original photos.
Link
(The locations not on the blue line were not visited.)
Cheers!
Nice summary, but what we really want to see are captioned pictures of our HBB brethern and sisters in various states of drunken debauchery.
But those photos can be taken ANY day of the week, and from numerous places around the globe, not just Vegas!
…HBB brethern and sisters in various states of drunken debauchery.
Ask Ben about the mirror in his hotel bathroom.
(And I like to say “brethren and sistren”)
LOL!
It was great meeting you, lavi d! Thanks for the work you did on the foreclosure tour.
thanks lavi
o.k. with respect to whether the “finance people knew how bad the situation was”…..
In Jan ‘08 I was in Australia and my friend’s mother had been given advice by her nephew who works in banking in London to liquidate everything out of stocks. She was reluctant to do so because the stock market in Australia had just kept climbing for years…
Anyway, the people in the know got out in time.
There is a difference between knowing it is going to be really bad and knowing exactly how bad. That being said, when you can sell your whole portfolio in a few minutes (or maybe a day in the case of mutual funds) from your own computer, there is little excuse to ignore something really bad coming down the pike even if you don’t know the exact extent.
I had kept a few very small positions open in closed mutual funds to be ready to jump back in. When I realized that the positions were not too far from going under the minimum level needed to avoid fees, I dumped them. Was keeping the old positions wise? Not in hind sight, but I had no idea the mess was still going to be unfolding at this point and that it would be this big. Small mistakes are OK as long as the fear of making them doesn’t keep you from avoiding big ones. I still got rid of over 90% of my long positions in 2007 without perfect information.
I swear the worst part of the dollar cost averaging cult isn’t telling people that they can’t figure out when to get out, it is telling them that once they get out, they will never know when to get back in. Classic case of the perfect being the enemy of the good. Did I miss the absolute top? Yes. Will I miss the absolute bottom? Probably. Did I still save myself 10’s of thousands of dollars or more? Yup.
Excellent job, polly!
Did I miss the absolute top? Yes. Will I miss the absolute bottom? Probably. Did I still save myself 10’s of thousands of dollars or more? Yup.
Amen to that.
I’m still trying to figure out the mind of the desert builder who names his company Spinnaker Homes. Let’s “run before the wind” until the wind dies!
And where’s the help for renters?
I know this one!
Silly renters are not participating in the American Dream™ and therefore not worthy of consideration.
Or, you can look at it this way:
A measly $7.5k tax credit? some interest rate reductions? all in exchange for securing an increasing share of the future fruits of a lifetime of labor - such a deal - for the PTB that is!
Don’t forget the extra $7/week this year starting in April.
The plan to lower the deficit is the most laughable Winstonian thing I’ve read all weekend. Keynesian Maniacs are insatiable. Tax receipts are lower during recessions. Do the Math. It ain’t gonna happen.
Tax receipts are lower during recessions ??
= Train Wreck in California over the next two years….
I thought I was hearing things myself. I’ve lost all respect for Obama. Someone should introduce Captial Hill to the Austrian School Of Economics. Oh yeah, Ron Paul has tried.
I like a man who can keep me guessing.
We can hope that this time the right people will listen.
Obama’s only redeeming virtue at this point is that he’s not Bush - thank God “W” has slunk off to well-deserved oblivion after the epic disasters that he’s bequeathed to his successor.
Of course, Obama’s no Ron Paul, either. It looks like he’s already pandering to the vox populi, principle and future generations be damned.
We shall see if Obama being “not bush” is a redeeming virtue… Personally, I don’t think the president is the one in control. The president is merely a puppet of the bankers and if the president gets an moral conviction about what he is doing, then the bankers will assassinate him. Most (all?) assassinations (or attempts) in our country’s history have been of presidents that attempted to undermine the banking industry by ending the central bank, issuing green backs, or issuing silver notes.
I don’t think the banksters will go after Bammy. The blowback would be too enormous in terms of rioting and social unrest and some banksters might get caught up in that. A lot of inner city areas are just too close to centers of finance.
OTOH, what these creatures usually do is find some obscure loser like Oswald, Hinckley or Chapman, give him a little “conditioning” and send him in. Then it looks like just a crazed loner. Or, someone associated with some sort of fringe supremacist group.
“Most (all?) assassinations (or attempts) in our country’s history have been of presidents that attempted to undermine the banking industry by ending the central bank, issuing green backs, or issuing silver notes.”
Nonsense. Lincoln, Kennedy, Reagan… those had nothing to do with banking.
The rumor is that Kennedy was going to disband the FED. I don’t know about Lincoln or Reagan, but the “crazed loner” MO fits. I’m sure they pissed some vested interest off.
The American People are too big to fail. Obama has no choice but to pander.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5lb0l3sYBo
Ron Paul on Bill Maher discussing the folly of bailouts, the Nanny State, and empire building.
Great and highly entertaining interview!
Tax receipts are lower during recessions.
That is why they are closing offshore tax haven loops in the Carribean. The euros are lamenting the end of the offshore banking as the US and EU governments go after the wealthy and tax them and close off all the tax loopholes for wealthy individuals and corporations. Its time for shared sacrifice !
Nothing like a really good recession to get governments on the ball with tax loopholes. It is the equivalent of an individual cashing in his change jar and using pennies when making purchases.
I’d like to see the hedgies explain why they can’t be motivated to work for 60% of a billion dollars a year (instead of 85% of it) when unemployment is above 12% - officially. And I’d LOVE to be a fly on the wall when the lobbists explain the strategy they are going to use to try to defeat it.
I bet even Schumer votes to cut them off this go around.
My BIL is on that list from UBS. I’m loving it. He hides behind the religious shield, but doesn’t live up to his responsibilities. Wish Neil would share his popcorn with me.
There must of been something in it to sweet’n the pie for the Swiss govt, don’t you think? Somehow, I get the feeling we don’t know what was negotiated behind closed doors.
Not hardly anything negotiated; the Swiss model is predicated on attracting black money. Because of this nasty arm twisting by the US, the Swiss are going to retaliate, probably by removing all of their gold from US vaults and refusing to be the go to guy when the US has a problem in the world that needs their diplomatic touch. It will be a much more dangerous world in 2009. This cant hurt the price of gold. Alad is laughing in Oz.
Thanks Carlos. Interesting insight. Do you think capital flight from the U.S. will be clamped down on? I’m thinking ,capital restraints a’comin soon. No $ will be able to leave the U.S. Your opinion?
No doubt about it; the boyz will wait for some convenient crisis du jour. Probably during the August holidays. If you want to change US dollars to anything else, gold, silver, yen, whatever, just do it before then. Will be the only way to prevent severe inflation bordering on hyperinflation without raising interest rates ala Volker. Weve done it before. Alad’s laughing his backside off!
“There must have been something in it for the Swiss ”
TARP!
UBS, CSFB, Commerce Bank and Allianz are all busted,
flat busted, they went and loaned out like crazy in
swiss francs to the eastern europeans, and now they
are trying to convert busted zlotys to francs.
Allianz is in it up to it’s eyeballs in CDS, so,
they are next
Isn’t it Political Strategy 101 to know it’s not wise to take on so much so early in one’s term?
No matter where one stands politically, I would hope everyone can at least acknowledge the pitfalls of this breakneck pace.
Not if your goal is to seize as much power as possible.
Point taken.
This is as good a Congress situation as he is ever likely to have. Doing stuff now is great political strategy.
Blind Faith was also a rock group. Yes, now Bammy is starting to show his true philosophy. Politicallly, he knows it’s not feasible to increase the maximum tax rate beyond the 39.5%. However $250,000 is middle class for family incomes between a 10 and 15 mile radius of Manhattan, and is probably lower middle class for Manhattan.
You don’t increase taxes in a recession. Dumb move.
One thing going for Bammy: The bottom in his long disproven Keynesian policies will be during this term and should be the bottom for stocks. He’s already nearly destroyed the big banks and scared many shareholders (myself included) to sell for big losses. For other stocks, I still intend to buy more growth stock when I can (no dividends) and squirrel them away while they are low.
I still have confidence the pendulum will come swinging back with a vengeance and it will be the pendulum to economic freedom and Morning in America. Tax cuts on capital gains are when I will cash in. They will happen, but not in the next 8 years.
He’s already nearly destroyed the big banks and scared many shareholders (myself included) to sell for big losses.
——————
No offense to you personally, Bill, but I have no problem will all of the large banks going under.
We should honor FDIC insured deposits, but let the rest fail, if need be.
“However $250,000 is middle class for family incomes between a 10 and 15 mile radius of Manhattan”
Making stuff up again I see.
Median income for 2007 including all 5 boroughs of NYC was roughly $47k.
Some say he’s moving too slow. Others say he’s moving to fast.
Oh dear!
Well, he asked for it. He got it. I’ll bet he’s wishing he had that Senate seat back right about now. Madame Mao will make him rue the day he ever went up against her.
There is talk all over the networks about Govt nationalizing Citi and BoA. Does any body know, if the govt takes over the banks are the depositors insured for 250K or to the full amount a depositor has in the bank?
Since it hasn’t happened before, I’d say they are probably making things up as they go along. That being said, if it does happen (and that is a big if), they would not want it to be more damaging to depositors than the regular FDIC process. I’d still recommend diversifying to under $100K per person on the account per bank. The $250K limit is temporary. Take your time to find a smaller local bank or thrift that has a recent good rating, didn’t sell its loans and underwrote them well.
http://www.treasurydirect.gov, buy T-bills. They earn very little interest but as a California taxpayer, I can take solace that none of the measly gains will go to the state government or the irresponsible recipients of state money. And I can get my entire principle back.
As for spending, I’m still not sure if I need to help out my unemployed sister soon. If so, I don’t have much for enjoying life in the bad times. If not, yes I look forward to more vacations. I might take a few weeks off this year for a personal issue, but it sure won’t be a vacation. In 2010 I will see if I can get to Alaska in the summer for a week and I will certainly go to Hawaii.
The government likes to air ideas in the media as “rumors” or recommendations by “experts” before they go and do something. These things would not be mentioned in the media if the Government didn’t already plan on doing it. Considering that there hasn’t been much backlash at the idea, I would say that it is a done-deal.
Once government owns the banks then they can start directly lending to people and will have to. Already Obama has been complaining about the banks “not lending”. There would be no more hint financial privacy if you bank with these banks.
Everyone keeps saying that the banks are “under capitalized” yet bank deposits at the federal reserve are far greater than necessary. I haven’t figured out how to resolve this apparent contradiction yet.
If the government takes over these banks then it means 100% bailout for these bank losses. That means all of the second mortgages that BoA made and all of the bad loans at Countrywide, and all future losses from commercial real estate. This represents trillions in printing press money to cover the losses. This would immediately stop monetary destruction at two of the largest banks in the US and enable rapid money creation.
If the government takes over these banks then it means 100% bailout for these bank losses.
——————–
This is the part I don’t understand. Why not just sell off what’s good, let the bad stuff fail, and simply make direct loans to well-qualified buyers?
There is no need to save stock and bond holders, IMHO.
Thank you both for your valuable advice. I always enjoy reading your wise postings. Have a great weekend.
You see,… this current mess is really not Jimmy Carters fault!
Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) — Billionaire investor George Soros said
“…The philosophy of “market-fundamentalism” was now under question as financial markets have proved to be inefficient and affected by biases rather than driven by all the available information, he said.”
“…Liberalization of the financial industry begun by the Reagan administration has led to a series of breakdowns forcing government intervention, Soros told economists and bankers last night at a private dinner at Columbia University in New York.”
“…Soros’s Quantum Endowment Fund returned 8 percent last year. That compared with an average loss of 18 percent by hedge funds, according to data compiled by Hedge Fund Research Inc. of Chicago.”
Hwy would be happy with a 8% passbook savings return!
It’s pretty clear why the Japanese were not spending over the last decade. Instead of cutting back, Americans went on a housing bubble induced spending spree that is not ending well. What did we do with all that MEW?
NYTimes: When Consumers Cut Back: A Lesson From Japan
The Japanese have had some good reasons to scale back spending.
Perhaps most important, the average worker’s paycheck has shrunk in recent years, even after companies rebounded and bolstered their profits.
That discrepancy is the result of aggressive cost-cutting on the part of Japanese exporters like Toyota and Sony. They, like American companies now, have sought to fend off cutthroat competition from companies in emerging economies like South Korea and Taiwan, where labor costs are low.
To better compete, companies slashed jobs and wages, replacing much of their work force with temporary workers who had no job security and fewer benefits. Nontraditional workers now make up more than a third of Japan’s labor force.
Younger people are feeling the brunt of that shift. Some 48 percent of workers age 24 or younger are temps. These workers, who came of age during a tough job market, tend to shun conspicuous consumption.
They tend to be uninterested in cars; a survey last year by the business daily Nikkei found that only 25 percent of Japanese men in their 20s wanted a car, down from 48 percent in 2000, contributing to the slump in sales.
Young Japanese women even seem to be losing their once- insatiable thirst for foreign fashion. Louis Vuitton, for example, reported a 10 percent drop in its sales in Japan in 2008.
“I’m not interested in big spending,” says Risa Masaki, 20, a college student in Tokyo and a neighbor of the Takigasakis. “I just want a humble life.”
Japan’s aging population is not helping consumption. Businesses had hoped that baby boomers — the generation that reaped the benefits of Japan’s postwar breakneck economic growth — would splurge their lifetime savings upon retirement, which began en masse in 2007. But that has not happened at the scale that companies had hoped.
Thanks, I enjoyed reading that. Airfares are low, and between the weather here and reading that, I think it’s time to go back and do some more shopping. The stores in Japan are teeming with the most wonderful goodies and treats.
I’ll fly over and spend some of my Barry Bux there, lest they fall into the hands of some auto dealer here.
Looks like the Japanese have also found out that if you don’t pay your workers a decent wage they, well, CAN’T afford your products.
I’ll bet nobody saw THAT coming either.
+1, eco.
For all you “mud” slingers out there:
Jumbo Loan Defaults Rise at Fast Pace as Rich Suffer:
Feb. 20 (Bloomberg)
“…Mortgage lending right now is like wading miles and miles in waist-deep mud,” Habetz said. “It’s so difficult. Jumbo borrowers will be tortured and it’s nothing they should take personally because everybody is getting tortured.”
The “Rich” aren’t suffering too much as they get ready to walk away.
Get ready? They’ve been walking away since last year. Everything you’ve seen to date is nothing but a way to help the rich get out before it all falls down.
And even then, some haven’t proven very smart.
electric shock, fingernail extraction, or naked human pyramid with underpants on head ?
Sounds like lenders and investors who funneled money into Jumbo loans are going to take a once-in-a-century financial bath. Not sure the loan owners will suffer much, as they get to walk away from their $100Ks in gambling losses and drop of the keys if they please.
Coastal Cali residential real estate is toast…
…
President Barack Obama’s Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan, announced this week, has no provision to help jumbo mortgage borrowers.
“People must have been surprised to lose their jobs or they didn’t realize the bottom hadn’t been reached yet on home prices,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. “A lot of people weren’t paying attention.”
Please note, that this is a very strong indicator that the bankers did not write the overall package as in, say the oil companies writing the Bush administration energy policy. They may have had some input, but it was the government employees who had the last say. As sad as it is to say, this is Change.
Polly, thanks for all of your level-headed insight, and sorry if my posts some times indicate I am blowing steam out of my ears.
At any rate, I am glad the D-rats are in charge now, if for no other reason than they are less prone to giving away the Treasury to rescue W’s base. The high end will suffer with the rest of the country this time around. And ultimately, the price of high-end housing puts a ceiling on anything of lesser quality, suggesting the whole house of cards will collapse despite intended efforts to prop up prices.
Yes, this is Change.
Is it Hope? Hope for whom, exactly?
Obama is en route to setting race relations and race-based economics back 30-50 years. Free subsidized single-family residences for every(black)one! This, despite the fact that Obama comes from Illinois…Land of Lincoln….and the Robert Taylor Homes. One would think he’d know better. (Then again, his is from Illinois).
I Hope I’m wrong about Obama. But I doubt it. In any event, I’m far from the only one thinking this way.
I mentioned before that the low interest loans and ninja loans that allowed low income people into neighborhoods of traditionally high income people is the additional piece in the puzzle of socialist engineering race integration. I’ve been screamed at. But I’m right.
Eudemon, I’m another blogger thinking the same thing.
I’ll go out on the limb further and take the hit from the kid glove apologists again: There were a lot of white people, much more than minorities, who voted for Obama. I think these white people had previously bad attitutes and racist thoughts about blacks, so to feel good and atone for their sins, they felt redeemed by voting for a person “of color” for President. Now that they have done so, they are sitting back and watching Obama fullfill his promises of spreading the wealth around (from white to black). They, the guilty whites who are no longer guilty, will be the worst racists as you imply in your second paragraph. They will be the ones returning to the attitudes toward blacks 30 to 50 years ago.
Flame war! Begin!
I’m wondering if that was what Holder’s speech was all about.
Bill -
You and I should have an extended chat one day.
You’re in Los Angeles; I’m from Chicago. Mindsets in big cities across the country largely reflect guilty liberals who, despite their incessant commentary to the contrary, are MORE racist and greedy than those living in less urbanized areas (look at where the per capita wealth is concentrated in this country).
Their assumption that others behave even more reprehensibly than they (because - geez - they are the kind-hearted liberals, after all) is wholly misplaced and inaccurate. You already seem keenly aware of this.
What most have yet to consider is that Washington DC has suddenly adopted a decidely Chicago mindset in both policy and action. Chicago and Illinois have a long history of producing race-baiting politicians - witness Mayor Daley, Obama, Blago, Jesse Jackson, etc. “Where’s Mine?” - was a city slogan once pro-offered by Mike Royko in response to local politics and attitudes.
In Obama’s history, it would seem that his friends of color at Harvard thought the same thing, that with him as Pres of Harvard Law, he would definitely lean towards protecting his friends of color. Well, in their surprise, they were sorely wrong and pissed off. He moved way opposite of what they wanted.
I say, lets wait a bit? Jus sayin. Wishin and hopin and prayin.
If it all turns out just like you are saying, I will atone.
President Barack Obama’s Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan, announced this week, has no provision to help jumbo mortgage borrowers
This also makes inland California real estate toast. Prices coming down in San Francisco and Silicon Valley will accelerate the downward prices on homes in Los Banos, Merced, Fresno, and such. An older family friend has had several rentals in Fresno and told me a few years ago lots of Bay area people bought up houses in the farm belt of California because the expensive coastal real estate drove them inland.
The corollary will also take effect. Prices on the coast coming down will further decrease prices in the farm belt. The buyers of my parents house are probably about even, since they spent tens of thousands of dollars remodling it and bought the house in 2001 at a low point. But if they HELOCed, they are screwed. At least they have a lot of space to grow their own vegetables!
Condo in Palm Springs, great area, on the mkt 3 wks at $400k was reduced this week to $350k. HOA is $490 mo. Furnished.
I think it has 200k more to go.
DesertHotSprings update on new, well built homes, were 500k, receivership and then 275k @ 2,899′ has just been reduced to $199k.
Many are buying price not quality. I still think lots of places in this desert are thinking the buying season/snowbird season is here so they don’t have to reduce prices.
Saw the condo today,built in 1978, and was followed by Canadians who think their economy isn’t bad, and that their banks are stable.
Swear togawd, that is what they said. They are buying full cash.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5780753.ece
Gordon Brown - the idiot who sold off the UK’s gold reserves for a song back in the late 1990s ($254 an oz) - is just now getting around to asking British lenders to stop making loans for 100% of a property’s value. Not a minute too soon…their housing bubble is collapsing even harder than ours.
From today’s Freep.com: Detroiters seek to appeal real estate taxes. A Roseville home sold for $123500 in 2003, auctioned off as a foreclosure for $23500 in 1/09, but its tax bill is over $3600 this year. “I have owned a few houses over the years and thought the tax base on the house would be adjusted according to what I paid. Apparently, this is wrong”
A great read from Market Ticker:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
————————————————————————
“Mr. Gramm, you are rapidly making a total fool of yourself. Do you remember this quote?
“You’ve heard of mental depression; this is a mental recession,”…
“We have sort of become a nation of whiners,”…
“We’ve never been more dominant; we’ve never had more natural advantages than we have today,”…”
————————————————————————-
Remember, Phil Gramm was the economic brain of McCain’s team.
Phil “author of Let’s repeal the Glass-Steagall Act” Gramm?
What a guy!
Did anyone get married at the drive-thru?
LOL!
LOL - for our 10th anniversary, I’ve threatened The Husband that we’ll redo our vows at the Elvis Drive-In Chapel.
He’ll do it only if I dress as Elvis as well.
Did anyone see Elvis?
Could this be Aladinsane?
“A former investment banker who was found to have millions of gold and other precious metal coins stashed in his basement pleaded guilty to a federal felony this morning and admitted stealing more than $10 million from clients. Donald C. Weir Jr. pleaded guilty to a felony mail fraud charge in federal court in St. Louis and is now likely to face six to eight years in prison under federal sentencing guidelines. Stacks of valuable coins were found in the basement of Weir’s house in the 1100 block of Chatsworth Place Drive in Town and Country in September, sparking an investigation that eventually found $10.3 million missing from client accounts, Assistant U.S. Attorney Matt Schelp said in court.
Damn. That could have been the backdrop for the “perfect crime”. If any of his friends knew about this, they could have burglarized his place and walked off with millions. And there’s no way he could have called the cops to complain. The burglars could have gotten away with it scot free.
Sheesh DennisN…you almost think like a …Wall Street banker
Well I am a lawyer you know.
I also have an FFL. How dangerous is that combination?
LOL.
Much as I dislike anyone quoting Francisco D’Anconia or John Galt and voting for the Messiah when he could have voted for Ron Paul, I doubt if Alad would bilk investors.
If you look at the performance of spot price of gold from November election day, you will understand why gold bugs such as Aladinsane love Obama. The gold bugs are betting on the demise of the free market in the U.S.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au0365nyb_.html
Hopefully the popup chart link will work.
Ahh, it gets more interesting. Here’s the other half of the article that I should have posted earlier. You be the judge.
Weir sent clients false account statements to cover up the theft and used the missing money to fund his own lifestyle and send “Robin Hood” payments to those he felt were needy, Schelp said. Weir, a graduate of the John Burroughs School, Creighton University and Georgetown University’s School of Business, was working for HFI Securities Inc. of Clayton at the time. He was also estranged from his wife and living in St. Charles County. Albert Watkins, a lawyer for HFI, said that the company was unaware of Weir’s actions. He secretly accepted delivery of the coins and kept them stored in his basement, Watkins said. A press conference has been scheduled for Friday afternoon at FBI headquarters in St. Louis to announce the plea.”
Yep Lad was nice and you guys bullied away. Grrrrrr
Who cares if you bought gold or not!
Gosh, I thought the humor and lines were good.
Hmmm so that’s why he disappeared from HBB… the law were onto him!!!
No, it’s highly unlikely that it is him. Much more likely is that he represented himself truthfully, but the situation is so extremely obviously FUBAR that he no longer wants to take the risk of his ISP number tracing him down.
Alad, wherever you are and whatever you do, may the Lord bless you and keep you safe. I miss you, and I personally am sorry I haven’t been defending you along the route. You’ve been a victim of unfair criticism and taunting. And yes, “precious” is currently beating whatever your taunters have been invested in!
“been a victim of unfair criticism and taunting.”
Nope, it’s been fair. He’s racist, paranoid, and unbelievably selfish — incapable of acknowledging opposing points of view with any meaningful dialogue.
Y’all are suckers. No wonder he’s a successful coin dealer.
Alad researched this!
I’d second that. I believe in sound money, as did Aladinsane. Lad, if you’re reading this, you’ll have some strong defenders if you rejoin us. I know what it’s like to be smeared in here and have people who should know better fail to speak out.
He’s ahead of the times. I have no doubt that Alad has a genetic sensitivity to “bad times”. Like that of animals said to leave for higher ground before a tsunami. Not all animals have this sense. Obviously not all humans have anything resembling it. Those that do, I believe, are few and far between. Anyone here think times have improved any since Alad submerged? Im quite a ways behind him in being prepared. I do hope he’s wrong, but I’m not depending on hope.
Grocery Outlet connoisseurs rarely embezzle millions.
I hadn’t heard this story last year, and was curious about why his basement was searched in the first place.
http://www.individual.com/story.php?story=96729127
His scheme crashed when some of the coins were discovered scattered around the basement of his house in the 1100 block of Chatsworth Place Drive by his estranged wife.
—–
Hi everyone, on my way to Alaska, but I have to comment on this.
First, the Lad lived in California, not St. Louis.
Second, the Lad struck me as a man with integrity, I don’t care if you think he was a gold dealer, at least he was honest. He would never do a thing like this, anyone with his sensitivities just couldn’t. He was in love with a TREE for cryin’ out loud!
Third, he’s not even in the U.S., he’s in New Zealand, laughing his ass off (but in a concerned way).
Fourth, he knew how to make his own money and didn’t need to steal it.
Case closed. See ya all in Fairbanks tomorrow! (said with great cheeriness while trying not to show how much I miss the redrock and even Montana, family emergency).
Lost-Chinle, thanks so much for speaking up and showing up.
Sorry for the family emergency.
How is school going? What town did you say school was in?
Butte or Bozeman or ?
Missing your input.
Hi, thanks, I’m in Bozeman until tomorrow…sigh. Hope to return soon. My uncle is ill.
Sorry to hear about your uncle, Lost. Hope everything works out as well as possilble. We miss you!
BTW, agree with you about alad. He was an informed and enjoyable poster. We can all disagree about the topics, but shouldn’t let that carry over into personal attacks.
Hope your school work is going well, too.
You know, I am kind of an alone guy. My family is gone. I have many friends, but stay home alone a lot. No pity case here, though. And, I was thinking how much I would have enjoyed going to Vegas and meeting everyone, and also have often wondered what happened to Aladinsane. (Some of you may not know, but that was the title of my favorite David Bowie album, circa 1976? ). It is just you get a “character” of someone, even in print, and wonder if he/she is ill, and hope not. Sorry, if silly. I hope he/she, and all of you, are always safe.
Greg
That was a very sweet post, Greg.
Aladinsane did confess to borrowing the name from that album.
Also, he posted a “good-bye” post because he was sick of the insults, IMHO, and said he was moving on, or somesuch. Some of us think he may have left the country, but he might also be trying to keep people off his trail. I don’t think he was ill at all, but know what you are saying because some of our other posters had been dealing with various illnesses over the years, and I always worry and wonder when the don’t post for awhile.
Hopefully, we’ll be having more meet-ups, and we’d love to have you join us.
Surf City condo sells for $2,000!
February 22nd, 2009, 3:00 am · 33 Comments · posted by Marilyn Kalfus, real estate reporter
A 2-bedroom condominium that’s a stroll from Huntington Harbour and 1.5 miles from the beach was sold on the ”courthouse steps” as a foreclosure for just $2,000 — and one penny.
The 1,166-square foot condo, at 16542 Blackbeard Lane, is in an area of northwest Huntington Beach peppered with foreclosures, according to CountyRecordsResearch.com.
“We had to look at this one twice,” said Bob Baker, a CRR consultant who writes a blog on the site following what happens at foreclosure auctions. “You just can’t make this kind of thing up.”
“Keep your eyes open,” he advised the real estate speculators who use the Web site to find homes going to auction.
Here’s how it happened: The lender, which held the second mortgage, was owed $94,619. At the foreclosure auction, they dropped the opening bid, which often happens — but this one was dropped drastically low, to $2,000.
The bidder picked it up for one cent more.
“They (the lender) knew if they didn’t drop it really low, they’d have to take over the first (mortgage),” said Kurt DeMeire, CRR founder.
Whoever picked up the second now assumes the payments on the first loan, which CRR shows at $154,000.
“Very reasonable,” Baker figures.
Well, lo and behold, that condo is up for sale — with an asking price of $199,000.
“Capitalism should not be condemned, since we haven’t had capitalism. A system of capitalism presumes sound money, not fiat money manipulated by a central bank. Capitalism cherishes voluntary contracts and interest rates that are determined by savings, not credit creation by a central bank. It’s not capitalism when the system is plagued with incomprehensible rules regarding mergers, acquisitions, and stock sales, along with wage controls, price controls, protectionism, corporate subsidies, international management of trade, complex and punishing corporate taxes, privileged government contracts to the military-industrial complex, and a foreign policy controlled by corporate interests and overseas investments. Add to this centralized federal mismanagement of farming, education, medicine, insurance, banking and welfare. This is not capitalism!”
R. Paul
Please point out a time in history this type of capitalism existed?
“It’s good to have ideals, ethics and principles in business. Just don’t expect the other guy to share them.”
-ecofeco
Not that I support it in the least, but I suppose one could say the same of communism. Since it’s been…
Oh, great… FBI’s knocking at my door already…..
Good News! Now once we get into the depression will folks start throwing themselves to the sharks instead of jumping in front of trains.
Recession = Fewer Shark Attacks…
Going into the weekend, I think I must just want to feel better about the economy because I keep finding silver linings to a crippled economy. For example, people are starting to think about how to make electronics last longer.
But here’s another one — the weak economy means fewer people are being eaten (entirely or in part) by sharks!
Shark attacks are on the decline due to the current economic downturn, a biologist speculated today.
In 2008, attacks worldwide dipped to their lowest level in five years, a sign that Americans may be forgoing vacation trips to the beach, said ichthyologist George Burgess of the University of Florida.
Burgess is the director of the International Shark Attack File, a compilation of all known shark attacks that is administered by the American Elasmobranch Society and the Florida Museum of Natural History, on the UF campus.
Cuz even sharks know that most people are full of SH*t and taste just as good.
Something fishy about that article, but the guy seems to be telling the tooth.
Funny, Greg. I would guess the sharks ATE Up all they could !
Jeez, a lot of anger towards Obama today, even among Bush-haters. Feel let down, don’t you.
Let this be a lesson. Assuming that we do have future elections, it is a good idea, in fact your duty, to research the candidates, particularly their past, before deciding on who to vote for - even if the mainstream media will not.
Obama’s hatred towards success and his goals to wreck our society as we know it were know it, were as plain as day to anyone who looked into it. Instead, we projected our dreams on him and STUPIDLY thought that he would satisfy those dreams, while ignoring the demands of the people that he considers his base.
Shame on you guys.
Saw a great bumper sticker today:
1-20-13
The End of Socialism
One of my best friends said that by the time Bammy’s term is over, he will be the most scorned and vilified prez the US has ever had. Hard to believe, considering shrub is a tough act to follow in that regard, but what I’m seeing seems to be a continuation of shrub’s policies, beefed-up, even. That, combined with wrong moves to worsen the economic situation, should really make for a hot time in the old town.
Not to mention, his own party will do him in pretty good. They’re off to a good start with that stimulus bull they made him go on the road to sell. He’s no leader. He’s told what to do, when to jump and how high. LMAO!
I saw one the other day… “1-13-08… end of 28 years of corporatism”.
“Shame on you guys.”
Leave me out of it. I knew who and what that sucka was a long time ago. I supported Ron Paul, voted for Nader.
When his record is as bad as Bush’s, I’ll agree with you.
February 20, 2009, 12:18 pm
Falling Real-Estate Prices and Hamptons 4.0
In 2007, I was giving a “Richistan” reading in East Hampton, N.Y., and a local resident came up to me to explain how wealth had ruined his once-quiet Long Island corner of the world.
Doug Kuntz
Until the mid-1990s, the Hamptons (especially East) were places where rich or poor, famous and obscure, could mix and mingle and feel at home. By 2007, it had become almost exclusively a playground for the attention-seeking rich. “The Hamptons used to be a place where somebodies pretend to be nobodies,” this resident told me. “Now it’s a place where nobodies pretend to be somebodies.”
The question is whether the crashing real-estate market will bring back the old Hamptons.
An article in today’s Wall Street Journal by Lucette Lagnado says Hamptons real-estate prices have fallen 25% or more. While notable, that still isn’t a real market reset, since home prices were vastly overvalued for years. Prices will fall more as more bankers, hedge funders and media titans realize that 2009 is likely to be worse than 2008.
Even if there is a real correction, the Hamptons aren’t likely to recapture that bohemian-and-blue-blood identity.
First off, the days of Jackson Pollack and his painter pals drinking and frolicking in the springs has been gone for more than 40 years. Gone also are the days of the quiet preppies who held shingled beach cottages there in the 1970s and early 1980s.
Now the third phase of the Hamptonsthe reckless, overbuilt, financier-fueled boom that began in the 1990s and created bumper to bumper BMWs, $6 breakfast muffins and VIP lists at local restaurantsmay also be passing.
We are entering what might be called Hamptons 4.0more similar to the financier days, but with a little less traffic, slightly shorter restaurant lines and lower prices at the local Ralph Lauren shops and Citarella stores. It will be like the new Hummersslightly smaller, but still outsized.
That may be a welcome change, especially for the rich who still can afford to summer there. But for the more nostalgic, the days of Mr. Pollack and the bohemians are long gone.
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When I wuz a pup, the family used to spend part of the summer in the Hamptons. First, in the Westhampton/Quogue area, then later on in East Hampton. Loved it, back in the day. Good times. It’s a shame. Artists seem to colonize places like that, then the dentists and lawyers come, then the posers, wealthy and otherwise.
This is SOP.
The artists move in because it’s cheap and nobody bothers them because it’s a bad neighborhood or very far out of the way. Parties ensue. (artists throw the best crazy parties BTW)
The Yuppies move in because the artists have turned a once obscure/bad area into something edgy and trendy… and the area is still affordable. “This Old House” ensues.
The poseurs move in for the same reasons.
The wealthy move in because real estate prices are rising and they have the clout and connections to make infrastructure improvements and money to re-develop more trendy “faux-loft” “urbaan” “atmospheres” or just knock down the old crap and build manses. Artists leaving in droves ensues.
So if you want to know where the hot properties in your city will be in the future…
Detroit and Cleveland the next hot spots? Who knew?
The Hamptons were so over after the 70’s mid 80s. It got so crowded and full of show offs that it was good to avoid.
Nobody goes there anymore….it’s too crowded.
It was a pleasure to meet all of you that attended the Vegas meeting. I hope to further our conversations on the blog as time progresses.
I hope everyone made it home safely
Kevin