February 23, 2009

The Old Box Isn’t Working In California

The North County Times reports from California. “Analysts said last week that North County homeowners can expect little relief from President Obama’s $275 billion housing bailout, based on details the White House made public last week. For openers, few local homeowners will qualify for a new refinancing program in the bailout because it targets homeowners with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. As for the refinancing piece of Obama’s package, homeowners must have a Fannie or Freddie mortgage and carry a ‘loan-to-value’ of 105 percent or less, meaning the amount owed on the mortgage is no more than 5 percent greater than the value of the home.”

“That’s a problem in San Diego County, where prices have tumbled 38 percent since 2005 and many mortgages carried small down payments, meaning thousands of homeowners owe far more than 5 percent over the home’s market value. Economics professor James Hamilton agreed…that the housing problem is too big for Obama’s solution. Further, the UC San Diego professor said if the bailouts go too far, it might make the problem worse by encouraging foreclosure.”

“‘Does everyone presume once they have negative equity, it’s time to ditch their obligation and once they’re there, they’re entitled to assistance from taxpayers?’ Hamilton said. ‘If we get to the point where everyone is thinking that way, it’s way too big a problem for the government to solve.’”

“Cecilia Rocha, a Bonsall resident…fell behind on the payments and is now hoping a short sale will go through, meaning she will sell the property for less than its loan amount. ‘When I was looking for help,’ Rocha said, ‘nobody gave me any solutions.’”

The San Francisco Chronicle. ” More than 90 percent of Bay Area mortgage holders cannot qualify for the low-cost refinances included in President Obama’s housing rescue package, according to an analysis of loan data from Zillow. That is the smallest percentage of people eligible for the refinances anywhere in the country, Zillow said.”

“‘Around here, most of the market just doesn’t qualify; it’s going to bypass us,’ said James Wilcox, a professor of finance at the Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley.”

Bay Area Newsgroup. “If somebody owns a home that’s now worth $300,000 — January’s median home price for the Bay Area — they would be disqualified if they had to borrow more than $315,000. Numerous Bay Area homeowners whose mortgages are in trouble have loan balances well above those levels. Some observers criticized Obama’s proposal to allow bankruptcy judges to restructure mortgages to a lower principal balance based on existing values.”

“‘That provision could slow lending even further,’” said Brian Wesbury, chief economist with First Trust Advisors. ‘Why would I want to provide someone with a loan if a bankruptcy judge can unilaterally change the terms of the mortgage?’”

“The possibility that the president has the wrong prescription for the housing market isn’t the only ominous development for the reeling industry. Regulatory and market forces could spur a new epidemic of foreclosures this year and banish a current pause in defaults. In some cases, big lenders have suspended the launch of new foreclosure proceedings, voluntarily or under government pressure. Plus, numerous adjustable-rate mortgages that gave borrowers multiple options for their monthly loan payments are about to reset to market interest rates.”

“‘The lull is artificial,’ said Christopher George, president of San Ramon-based CMG Financial Services, a mortgage and finance firm. ‘There will be a series of further waves of foreclosures.’”

“About 25 percent of California homeowners suffer from negative equity, which means the loan balance exceeds the current home value, O’Toole of Foreclosure Radar said. The Bay Area could be in worse shape. ‘Investment houses, empty houses, homes owned by people who were never going to be able to make the payments anyway, they will contribute to the new foreclosures,’ O’Toole said.”

The Press Enterprise. “‘Whenever it comes to government programs, the devil is in the details. The guidelines and restrictions they adopt are sometimes very prohibitive which doesn’t make them very usable,’ said Nancy Herrera, an agent with the Riverside branch of Pacific Sunrise Mortgage.”

“Wells Fargo said Thursday it had seen a surge in calls about the plan and Bank of America reported an increase in calls about refinancing although none of the callers mentioned the plan. A Bank of America spokeswoman said the company had no plans to hire more staff in the face of the new program.”

“Bunker Rayner, owner of Corona Mortgage Financial Corp., said he was surprised he didn’t receive inquiries Thursday. He said that may be because previous foreclosure prevention programs touted by the federal government have worked for only a fraction of homeowners in distress. ‘We got more calls when other programs were announced. I think they are tired of being disappointed,’ Rayner said.”

“For homeowners, there is bright side to falling home prices: Lower property taxes. Thousands of Bay Area homeowners had their property taxes cut last year under a state law that requires a reassessment when a home’s market value falls below its assessed value. The number of homeowners who could see lower property taxes is likely be even more this year.”

“Livermore resident Wanda Del Conte saw a yearly savings of about $851 off her 2008-09 property taxes. The assessment on her five-bedroom home she purchased in June 2006 was reduced by $125,000 to reflect its Jan. 1, 2008, market value of $900,000.”

“‘When I got my tax bill in October I saw that it was coming down and I was like, ‘yeah,’ and I’m celebrating and I’m happy,’ she said.”

The Sacramento Bee. “County assessors all over the Sacramento region are warning homeowners about a company trying to bill homeowners for something they already get for nothing. And in some cases, the company is telling property owners they will be hit by a $30 fee if they are late to respond.”

“Earlier this month, Vic De Stefani of Folsom received one such letter in the mail, saying that because of the recent housing slump, his home’s value was now overassessed by about $150,000. Getting a reassessment on his home would save him about $2,000 in property taxes annually, the letter said. All he’d need to do was mail $179 to a post office box in Los Angeles, the letter said. But if he didn’t send the letter in by Feb. 27, the service would cost another $30, it said.”

“‘It’s the second one I’ve got,’ said De Stefani, who bought his home in November. ‘The original one said that for $95 they could lower my taxes by $750 (annually).’”

“De Stefani said he was immediately skeptical, but decided to check out the company with county officials. ‘I showed them the letter and they just laughed,’ he said.”

“Kathleen Kelleher, Sacramento County’s assistant assessor, said her office won’t begin considering new property values until June. ‘We’re in a period of time where it’s too late for last year and too early for next year,’ she said. ‘We kind of question why there’s any urgency to file.’”

The Manteca Bulletin. “There have been 131 resale homes that have closed escrow in the first seven weeks of 2009 in Manteca with a median selling price of $179,900. The vast majority of those homes are selling for less than it would cost to construct and pay required fees on a new home. A 1,094-square-foot home with three bedrooms and a bathroom closed escrow for $70,000 on Feb. 10. A classified ad in the Manteca Bulletin last Sunday for a kissing cousin of that home on the same street with three bedrooms and one bathroom has a rent of $1,080.”

“That’s more than double or $600 more to rent than to buy each month. Buying also comes with tax advantages that renting doesn’t. It is a trend throughout California that Wells Fargo Bank CEO John Stumpf noted Friday has created the opportunity of a lifetime in the Golden State with homes selling for less than it would cost to build them new.”

The Ventura County Star. “The rental market is softening, spurred by a feeble economy that has more people searching for roommates or moving home with their parents. Rents fell by as much as $200 or $400 per month at a handful of apartment complexes last year, while most other property owners froze or slightly reduced rents, said Dawn Dyer, president of Dyer Sheehan Group in Ventura.”

“It just isn’t worth taking the chance of losing tenants to make an extra $25 a month, said Linda Gilden, a Fillmore resident who owns an apartment building in Santa Paula. She noted that once a tenant is lost, an apartment stays vacant for a while. ‘I would love to have an automatic turnover like I used to, but now it takes several weeks or a month,’ she said. ‘Our philosophy is to take a little less than market value in order to keep the tenants.’”

“It’s not as if renters will be rejoicing every time they write the rent check, said Caroline S. Latham, president of RealFacts. Tim Kephart certainly isn’t. A handyman from Santa Paula, Kephart said rents need to fall much more in order to be affordable. ‘The rental market in this county is outrageous,’ he said. ‘You’re paying $500 for a 10-by-10 room with a closet, and you’re sharing a bathroom with somebody. You may have laundry privileges; you may not. You may have room in the fridge; you may not.’”

“Property owners like Gilden, (have) had a difficult time retaining tenants during the past two years. She’s considered lowering rents because of worsening economic conditions, but she hasn’t acted upon it. Right now, she’s in wait and see mode. ‘It’s kind of like waiting for an earthquake to happen,’ she said. ‘You know it’s going to happen eventually. You just don’t know how bad and how much it’s going to affect you.’”

From Reuters. “Experts agree California home prices will ultimately rebound but caution that real estate investing in this economy — the worst contraction since 1982 — should not be undertaken by amateurs or the faint of heart. ‘You have to have a pretty strong feeling about where this is all going,’ Stuart Gabriel, director of the Ziman Centre for Real Estate at the University of California, Los Angeles, told Reuters. ‘This cycle is so different from prior cycles that it’s very difficult to extrapolate.’”

“‘Most would argue that California is not going into the sea,’ he said. ‘On the other hand it’s not totally out of the question that this particular period of weakness could extend for a while, and that means multiple years.’”

“Chris Twoomey and his wife Jennifer illustrate the risk underlying the perceived opportunities. They moved to California from the Midwest in 2004 to pursue acting careers and had just begun to think the dream of home ownership was out of reach when the crash came and they saw their chance. The couple pounced in January, right after Jennifer learned she was pregnant with their first child, making an offer on a small, bank-owned home in suburban Los Angeles.”

“But the day after the Twoomeys’ offer was accepted, Chris was called into the cafeteria at his job in a cosmetics company warehouse and laid off. ‘Sometimes in our dark moments we sit around and say to ourselves, ‘Look, forget the acting, forget everything, this is the time to bail’ (from California). We can be doing this someplace else that’s still warm but doesn’t cost as much,’ Chris told Reuters in an interview.”

“‘But we’re sticking it out,’ he said. ‘It’s perverse, but something inside of us does want to stay here. It’s sort of a belief that because it is Southern California and because it is the kind of place where everybody wants to be, it will come back eventually.’”

The LA Times. “John Burns, an Irvine consultant to home builders, said he expected the market to continue to drop despite the increase in affordability. ‘They’re still not as affordable as they were in 1995 and 1996, and I think there’s an almost certainty prices will keep falling,’ Burns said.”

“Even after the economy exits the recession, people will continue to lack the confidence to buy a home, Burns said. ‘It’s bubble psychology. People believe when something happens for three, four or five years in a row, it’s likely to keep happening. It happens in boom times as well.’”

“Aarchan Joshi…who lives in north Redondo Beach, is putting off a move to Manhattan Beach. He could afford to move now but thinks ‘there’s a big disconnect. The more affluent areas are really just beginning’ their price declines, he said.”

“A bit of an armchair economist, Joshi said he figured Manhattan Beach’s median home price is 13 times its median household income. ‘It’s completely unsustainable,’ he said. ‘My range would be when it gets to seven times or eight times income, that would trigger me to seriously look at buying a home,’he said. His guess is that will occur around 2012.”

The LA Daily News. “These aren’t the best of times to own a home - especially when a school district wants to bulldoze it and build a campus on the property. Los Angeles Unified School District officials are trying to seize three Sylmar homes for a new K-8 school at the intersection of Bledsoe Street and Dronfield Avenue. But the homeowners are holding out for more money - or are simply trying to block the move - saying the district wants to buy them out cheaply in the depressed real estate market.”

“‘They’re trying to cherry-pick at the bottom of the market,’ said Paul Croswhite, who says the district has offered him $749,000 for his home, which he said was valued at about $1.5 million three years ago. The offer, he said, would leave him with less than $100,000 after paying off his mortgage.”

The Orange County Register. “TWR Framing had 3,500 carpenters two to three years ago, building 6,000 houses a year all over Southern California. Now, it employs just 175, and last year it built just 1,000 homes. ‘The challenge that you have is just operating at 10 percent of your peak volume,’ said Tom Rhodes of Newport Coast, owner of the Corona-based framing business. ‘Nobody’s making money. You can’t make money at these levels.’”

“Companies have cut their staffs by 80 percent to 90 percent, hours and benefits have been slashed, and profit margins are slim – or non-existent. And forecasters project that construction levels will fall even more in 2009. ‘The problem is: how do you stay in business? I mean, these are pretty tough times,’ said Bill Watt, president of a small homebuilder in Newport Beach that’s gone from building 100 homes a year to two or three last year.”

“I do believe you’ve got to think outside the box because the old box isn’t working. They’re not lending is the biggest problem. Well, that’s not the biggest problem. The biggest problem is no demand,’ he said.”

“Lennar Corp. gambled that if it waits, it’ll get top dollar for three massive Orange County housing developments: Great Park Neighborhoods, A-Town in Anaheim’s Platinum Triangle and Central Park West along the I-405 in Irvine. The projects have been on hold for a year, even though development was under way on Central Park West and in A-Town.”

“‘When the music seemed to have stopped back in ‘06, we in the industry were left with an inventory problem,’ said Emile Haddad, Lennar’s chief investment officer, referring to the vacant, completed homes homebuilders couldn’t sell. ‘We don’t want to add to the problem of more inventory.’”

“Haddad noted that most of the sales are for homes priced at $500,000 and below.”

The Appeal Democrat. “The seller’s loss is the buyer’s gain in the Mid-Valley. While median home prices have plummeted in the last year, home sales have almost doubled as homeseekers take advantage of great bargains, low interest rates and foreclosures. ‘Now is definitely a good time to buy,’ said Connie Coughlin, a real estate agent in Yuba City.”

“In Yuba County, the median sales price saw a 32 percent drop from January 2008-2009, as the price fell from $233,250 to $158,000, DataQuick reports. Sutter County fared slightly better, with a 26.9 percent drop in the same time period. The median home price went from $227,000 to $166,000. The Mid-Valley’s drop is less than the California average of 41.5 percent. The statewide median price of $224,000 is the lowest figure posted since May 2001.”

“Coughlin encourages anyone looking for a home to find one real estate agent to work for them. ‘That’s what Realtors are for, to help you reach your goal,’ she said.”

“Bank-owned properties and foreclosures make up the majority of homes on the market right now, Coughlin said. It may be a buyer’s market but residents are still quick to fight for a greater bargain. ‘There is plenty to choose from but everybody still seems to want to steal them,’ she said.”




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129 Comments »

Comment by HARM
2009-02-23 12:42:44

“A bit of an armchair economist, Joshi said he figured Manhattan Beach’s median home price is 13 times its median household income. ‘It’s completely unsustainable,’ he said. ‘My range would be when it gets to seven times or eight times income, that would trigger me to seriously look at buying a home,’he said. His guess is that will occur around 2012.”

7-8 X median HH income –and in a deep recession no less– is what this clown would consider “sustainable”? Even for an SCAL beach community, that’s a rather steep “sunshine premium”. Methinks 4x, or even 3X HH income might be where this market eventually bottoms out. And this in an environment of falling wages and rising unemployment. Which means this ratio is a moving target… in a downward direction.

Comment by Ben Jones
2009-02-23 12:57:31

It’s interesting to me that the Times couldn’t be bothered with pointing out how far this guys expectations are from the historical norm. Keep feeding the bears, LAT, I’ll be around to remind future FBs about it.

Comment by kyle0
2009-02-23 13:21:48

Maybe I misunderstand, but didn’t the paragraph before that comment mention affluent areas? I assumed he was talking about houses not meant for people of median income, but used that as a comparative statistic. So 7x median income could be 2-3x his income.

I don’t know much about LA. When being driven through it, I spend most of my time staring at a book because I wince every time a motorcycle zips between lanes.

Comment by Michael Fink
2009-02-23 13:51:26

The problem is that absolutely everyone seems to think that THEIR area is special, and that all the rich/foreigners with bags of money/retirees with dementia and millions in cash want to live there. SOME of these people are seriously wrong. Palm Beach Island has areas with 50K median incomes and 1M dollar median home prices. However, some of those areas are indeed special, and won’t fall to historic 3X income statistics. That means that other areas will fall FURTHER then 3X income to make up for the very few areas that really are special.

There are certainly some enclaves that can depart from the statistical norm, the problem is that everyone in the country seems to think that they are in that enclave. What they don’t realize is that many of these new McMansion developments are going to fall to less then 3X income (for the area) just to make up for those very few areas that truly are unique/special.

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Comment by DennisN
2009-02-23 19:19:50

“retirees with dementia…”

Huh?

 
 
Comment by Wickedheart
2009-02-23 14:59:22

Prices are still absolutely ridiculous. What median income buys you is a house in a low income neighborhood. At least is does here in San Diego and I’ll bet LA is the same.

House prices in my old neighborhood are 6 to 7 times the median household income in the area, 37 thousand a year. Oh and one third of those homes have children. When I was looking to rent, asking rents were 1600 to 1700 a month. 1600 in a neighborhood that is essentially poor.

The neighborhood in live in now is also 6 to 7 times median household income.

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Comment by Michael Fink
2009-02-23 15:44:01

That’s insane, and totally unsustainable long term. Unless you live in one of those “special” enclaves (which I doubt given your description), there’s simply no way that kind of leverage is going to work out long term.

It’s so simple, and yet all these moron REtards, MTG brokers, and of course, govt bailout funds want to complicate it. If your home costs more then 3X your HH income (actually, more correctly, your loan is 3X your HH income) your in over your head. If your a median income earner, 3X is probably a bit too high, if you make 2X the median, MAYBE you can stretch it to 3.25X or so, but you will absolutely be house poor. 3X median for this country puts most people in homes around 150-200K. That’s too much house for someone making 50-60K a year (IMHO), I’d never consider it on that kind of salary.

 
 
Comment by dude
2009-02-23 16:45:49

“So 7x median income could be 2-3x his income.”

This would be a rare occurence in a single zip code, and the median income should be applied to the median home. I would agree that a beachfront home will seldom be 3X median income for the zip, but one would not need to go very many blocks inland to find on that is. If that is not the case we are not at the bottom.

For example, median household income in 2007 for Palmdale 93551 was $59K. 3X=177K. My handy dandy spreadsheet shows that the median sales price for houses in that zip started from $377K in January ‘07 and fell from there. The median sales price didn’t break the 3X number until Sept of ‘08. BTW, it’s still dropping, currently at $136K. What do you think is hapening to household income?

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Comment by kyleO
2009-02-23 19:17:28

I see. I guess I’m just used to the Midwest where smaller cities and towns have both the lower income neighborhoods and the expensive ones in the same zip code.

 
 
 
Comment by james
2009-02-23 16:38:32

Talking to senior coworkers and they believe the home prices will stay high in the beach districts AND that incomes are much higher in the beach districts.

Looked at a beach rental house in MB. Was 4000$/month. Still sitting.

There is a house for sale, nicer but a few yards further from the beach. Its asking price is 1,300,000 and is over double the cost of a similarly equivalent rental.

Long. Way. To. Go.

There will be plenty of knife catchers along the way to eat into the comps.

Enjoy. My estimates of a 2010 price collapse are feeling pretty good. Might miss by a year or two.

Comment by David
2009-02-23 17:03:57

A big problem with buying a house next to the ocean, sooner or later it will be in the ocean. It could be a big winter storm, cliff erosion, beach erosion, or rising ocean levels. Much better to rent that beach house. When buying, choose a place high and dry.

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Comment by smathis
2009-02-24 05:33:02

I love the ocean, but there are problems associated with living right next to it. I was fortunate enough to live oceanside for a few years a long time ago, and it was wonderful in a number of ways.

However, unless you keep your car sealed up in a garage with its own climate control, it WILL rust out in a very short time as a consequence of being constantly bathed in airborne saltwater.

Similarly, any time you park your car outdoors within a quarter-mile or so of the ocean, you will come back to find it covered in a film of smudgy sea mist.

Any electronics you own will have a significantly shortened lifespan.

Seagulls are beautiful, graceful creatures…who leave their droppings EVERYWHERE.

There will be lots of sand in everything you own: your clothes, your house/apartment, your car…everything.

Your clothing will never get REALLY dry. Clothes fresh out of the dryer will still be slightly damp, and they will stay that way.

Probably the most annoying thing? You can’t complain about any of this stuff, because people will just be irritated that anybody would have the temerity to complain about living on the beach. And you know what? They’re right. :-)

 
Comment by Santa Bubblicious
2009-02-24 12:44:35

I’ve had the incredible good fortune to live on the beach for awhile as well (Padaro Lane near Montecito).

Don’t forget the very slight mildew-y smell of all your clothes because everything is so damp. You don’t even notice after awhile (but others do).

There’s also the occassional terror of a huge storm with waves smashing against the house.

Sand sand sand is right. Absolutely everywhere.

Was it worth it? Hell.Yes. I don’t understand it when people with all the money in the world don’t choose oceanfront.

 
 
Comment by Big V
2009-02-23 18:34:40

“Senior coworkers”.

You mean old people at work? They’re still dreaming.

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Comment by rms
2009-02-23 22:47:04

+1 LMAO!

 
 
 
 
Comment by Neil
2009-02-23 13:46:42

Don’t be too hard on him. At least he’s not predicting a recovery in six months. ;) Besides, he’s predicting a minimum 1/3rd drop in prices! As incomes drop, so will his target prices.

Manhattan beach is the current ‘trendy’ beach city. There are enough rental units there to support a bottom at 6X of the local median income. In effect, there are several communities there that have different personalities/incomes.

side note: The Manhattan Beach TV studios were empty today. Oscars? Seriously, the traffic on Rosecrans was incredibly light for a Monday at all three times I drove down the street this morning/lunch and I couldn’t help but notice the studio parking lots were pretty empty when I drove by.

Got Popcorn?
Neil

Comment by not a gator
2009-02-23 18:16:53

Agree. 2012–sounds like the consensus on this very blog. I was irritated with the newpaper’s epithet, “bit of an armchair economist,” as if to dismiss him, when the man was spitting up some real facts and figures.

Also, if the place he is looking at is at 14x income now and he expects it to bottom out at 6x income, well, I do not know what is in his numerator and denominator but since Cali was said to be generally speaking around 10x income, I think he may be looking at a ’special’ area or he is comparing median sale price in a zip to median income in a county.

Some above noted that ’special’ locations may stay above 3x income. Stanley, who researched millionaires, noted that they tended to minimize realized income. I have also spoken to some people with high net worth who have talked about the importance of this. Have everything ‘paid for’ so you don’t have to realize a large income and pay a large tax. So you may start to see a disconnect in very wealthy communities between realized, taxable income and assets, such as the house.

This does NOT go for McMansion tractvilles (as another poster noted above) because these tend to be populated by the “all hat, no cattle” tribe, who must realize an enormous income to keep up with their debt-fueled spending! Such ‘hoods will, rather, decay rather precipitously. And I believe this happened after 1929, as well.

 
Comment by Ex-Arizonan
2009-02-24 21:41:59

I work with a guy who’s a pretty successful salesman who bought a 1200sqft condo about a block from the Hermosa Beach pier in like 2006 for like 800,000+. He thinks it will not drop in value. I keep telling him to get rid of that place. As a salesman his 200k income is not very stable right now and I think that place will be going down in price, maybe by a lot. I haven’t looked at the sales history for it.

He claims that stuff that close to the beach won’t really suffer. I guess we’ll see.

 
 
 
Comment by DinOR
2009-02-23 12:42:51

“That’s what realtors are for, to help you reach your goal”

WTF is ‘that’? I mean seriously. Sorry guys, I’m shaking like a dog sh!tting peach pits and really don’t have the patience for that brand of blatant propaganda on a Monday.

What goal? A lifetime of indentured servitude on an upside down specuvestment?

Comment by HARM
2009-02-23 12:52:56

Hey DinOR, I’d comment, but I’m too busy bragging to my creditors about my strong back and good teeth, so I can fetch a higher price at the debt-slave auction! Gotta jawbone up that FICO score, y’know! ;-)

Comment by DinOR
2009-02-23 13:07:18

HARM,

Right…. The other day I was helping my SIL install his heating system and one of our friends was helping with the connection to the breaker panel. Anyway the guy works for Portland General Electric and was embarrassed to admit he was actually -behind- on his electric bill!

I said, “Dude, you’re my age or older! WTF do you care about your “credit” any more? Are you planning on buying some sort of “estate”? A resort? Do you really ‘want’ any more debt?”

Well, uh… no. Well then FORGET about it! I told him to take all his bills and throw them against the ceiling and pay the ones that stick. Sheesh, people just got to get off this “I’m a good debtor” mindset! Credit is for young people.

 
 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-02-23 14:25:18

DinOR, peachpits?
I’m shaking like a dog sh!tting peach pits
You should write a book, or a screenplay. Your descriptive talents are amazing!

 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-02-23 14:28:07

DinOR, peachpits?
I’m shaking like a dog sh!tting peach pits
You should write a book, or a screenplay. Your descriptive talents are amazing!

how does this posting thingy work?

Comment by ozajh
2009-02-23 17:49:11

Erratically. :D

Comment by Big V
2009-02-23 18:36:05

Did you just say “erotically”?

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Comment by robiscrazy
2009-02-23 12:43:20

More than 90 percent of Bay Area mortgage holders cannot qualify for the low-cost refinances included in President Obama’s housing rescue package

This has probably been asked already, but who thinks the administration has set narrow guidelines on purpose so that very few qualify for the rescue plan?

In doing this, maybe they are smarter than they look?

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-02-23 13:34:17

Yes, on this issue, they are indeed smarter than they look.

Oh, and on a totally unrelated issue, I was on the phone with my cable Internet provider. I only use these folks for Internet access, and last year, I nailed ‘em for throwing cable TV into the mix. Reported ‘em to the City of Tucson and the Arizona Attorney General’s office.

Well, during today’s phone conversation, they asked for the last four digits of my Social Security number. I turned ‘em down, saying that said number is only to be used when dealing with the Social Security Administration and other federal agencies. And if Cox Communications has become an arm of the feds, that’s news to me.

I finally found my PIN number (had to rummage through some receipt files) and that was acceptable instead.

After we resolved the matter that I had called about, they asked if I wished to add cable TV service.

Something tells me that all the “disconnect the cable” advice from the “cut unnecessary expenses” articles is hitting home at Cox.

Comment by DinOR
2009-02-23 13:41:09

Arizona Slim,

Good for you. I threw my cable provider under the bus last week. They kept promising they’d have VOIP ( unlimited calling ) for the longest time. So, everything on (1) bill!

Not happening. To add insult to injury they -never- got my bill right. It was roughly double what I was quoted. So back to VZ DSL. On a brighter note I helped my SIL hook up the new HDTV ant. and I was very pleased w/ how well it worked!

Great guides, a bunch of channels and really nice picture and audio! Hey, for $38 bucks, how can you complain about ‘that’?

 
Comment by Melvin Z Hoppe
2009-02-23 16:30:07

“Something tells me that all the “disconnect the cable” advice from the “cut unnecessary expenses” articles is hitting home at Cox.”

I haven’t watched television or paid a cable bill in twelve years. With the money I’ve saved, in a year or two I’ll be able to buy…a house.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-02-23 16:41:05

I don’t watch TV either. It takes too much time away from reading.

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Comment by Big V
2009-02-23 18:38:32

From reading what? …This blog?

 
 
Comment by are they crazy
2009-02-23 21:38:01

I love our cable and dvr. I go through the guides and pick shows to record. I watch what I want, when I want. I’m constantly amazed at the quality shows we find. Discovery, Science, History, NatGeo, Food network, gardening shows and beautiful HDTV tours of the UK Queens Trust Gardens. Movies galore on demand and a ton of learning channels and music. That doesn’t even include the stations and subjects I’m not interested in that are available. Don’t watch network much and never watch news or talking heads.

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Comment by David
2009-02-23 17:07:39

Some cable stations pay hte provider for each subscriber. So comcast makes money from the stations too. They tend to put all these stations into the most basic package. I was offered the basic package for $18 a month with a $15 discount for having tv plus internet.

 
Comment by DennisN
2009-02-23 19:28:26

Here in Boise the TV stations broadcast from the top of the mountain overlooking the valley. I can literally see the towers from my house. So a cheap Home Despot “rooftop” antenna installed in the crawlspace over my garage gets me 5 x 5 DTV reception. Who the heck needs cable?

I went with Clearwire for BB Internet precisely to avoid having to deal with either (1) the local phone company or (2) the local cable TV company.

 
Comment by SteveH
2009-02-23 19:53:01

Hey Slim, I had a similar thing happen with my mobile phone company. I have T-Mobile service because there is no contract, just renew your minutes when you are close to running out. I called to add minutes and had more questions and trouble giving then one hundred dollars than I could believe. They wanted my SSN, for God’s sake, to process a credit card order. I’ve bought tickets to New Zealand with less hassle. I ended up talking to a supervisor who didn’t think it was any big deal to ask for my SSN just so I could give them money. WTF? I was trying to pay them, not take something from them. I asked why it was so difficult to give them money and got no good answer except “fraud”. Really fried me.

 
 
Comment by svcodemonkey
2009-02-23 13:58:31

“I am from the government and I am here to help you”. Sounds Familiar?

Comment by NoSingleOne
2009-02-23 17:14:43

Yes, Ronald Reagan said those were the scariest words you’ll ever hear…until Greenspan uttered:

“Innovation has brought about a multitude of new products, such as subprime loans and niche credit programs for immigrants. Such developments are representative of the market responses that have driven the financial services industry throughout the history of our country. With these advance in technology, lenders have taken advantage of credit-scoring models and other techniques for efficiently extending credit to a broader spectrum of consumers.”

Federal Reserve System’s Fourth Annual Community Affairs Research Conference, Washington, D.C. April 8, 2005

Comment by GH
2009-02-23 22:50:03

The existing credit scoring models in place at the time predicted subprime loans would default - hence the UHHHHH! “low credit score”

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Comment by Big V
2009-02-23 14:43:15

Yes, they are smarter than they look. Obama is good at phrasing everything in such a way as to entice people to interpret his words the way they wish he meant to say them. He NEVER SAID this bill would help people who have no ability or intention to repay the liar loan they took out in 2005. It’s just a way for him to say he did something, so he can take credit in 4 years when things probably won’t be tanking anymore.

Comment by dude
2009-02-23 16:53:26

“…4 years when things probably won’t be tanking anymore.”

Good luck with that V. So far I’m only seeing delay, deflect, deny. We could easily be following the post empire path of Great Britain.

Comment by Itsabouttime
2009-02-24 18:39:12

One of the common themes on this blog is there really is NOTHING to do. But, what government leader can say that to the nation? So, if it turns out that this administration’s response is, essentially, nothing, we should just be glad they didn’t try to do something.

But, it remains to be seen whether we’ll be that fortunate. We weren’t with the last guy.

IAT

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Comment by SDGreg
2009-02-23 16:14:40

“Bunker Rayner, owner of Corona Mortgage Financial Corp., said he was surprised he didn’t receive inquiries Thursday. He said that may be because previous foreclosure prevention programs touted by the federal government have worked for only a fraction of homeowners in distress. ‘We got more calls when other programs were announced. I think they are tired of being disappointed,’ Rayner said.”

It’s been noted by many on this blog that each of these foreclosure prevention programs would not help very many. This observation seems to support that view.

Whether by accident or design, the intent seems to be to merely slow rather than stop the decline, probably as a means of minimizing the collateral damage. While I would like to see the decline happen faster, one can image some of the possible reactions if prices broadly declined to 20 percent of their previous value in 12 months, for example. I don’t favor dragging this out over a decade, but there can be problems with a decline that is too fast as well.

Comment by EggMan
2009-02-23 17:04:23

the relief programs seem to be aimed at helping people who are in a ‘little bit’ of trouble, rather than people who are in a ‘whole freakin lot’ of trouble. It’s actually standard medical triage. You treat patients that can be saved, and apply morphine to ones who can’t.

Comment by dude
2009-02-23 17:39:11

morphine=American Idol?

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Comment by combotechie
2009-02-23 19:35:22

“Whether by accident or design, the intent seems to be to merely slow rather than stop the decline, probably as a means of minimizing collateral damage.”

Yep, keep the hope alive. Give hope to the FBs so they’ll stay current with their house payments instead of walking.

 
 
 
Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2009-02-23 12:49:18

“TWR Framing had 3,500 carpenters two to three years ago, building 6,000 houses a year all over Southern California. Now, it employs just 175, and last year it built just 1,000 homes.

6 x 175 = 1050 …what where the other 2,450 workers doing, running errands? Sounds like they kept the most “efficient” workers on the payroll. ;-)

Comment by Eric in JC
2009-02-23 14:16:28

I’m guessing the have more workers, but now they are “sub-contractors” and not employees.

 
Comment by Justathought
2009-02-23 15:05:39

6,000 houses divided by 3,500 framers? That’s less than 2 houses per framer per year….no wonder prices are so high.

 
Comment by SDGreg
2009-02-23 16:18:13

Haven’t the houses gotten smaller as well?

 
 
Comment by measton
2009-02-23 13:28:38

I love this story, jumping the line.

Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) — American Express Co., the largest U.S. credit-card company by purchases, is paying some cardholders $300 each to close accounts so the lender can reduce the risk of defaults as the recession deepens.

People who got the offer to “simplify” their finances must pay off their entire credit-card balance by April 30, according to New York-based American Express. Enrolling in the program cancels a customer’s account and may lead to forfeiture of reward points or rebates, the company said on its Web site.

“What AmEx is trying to do is move to the front of the line in terms of getting paid back” by customers who owe debts to multiple lenders, said Michael Taiano, an analyst at Sandler O’Neill & Partners with a “hold” rating on the company. “They clearly grew loans faster than their competitors in the years leading up to this financial crisis.”

Comment by bink
2009-02-23 13:34:25

I’ll sell my airline miles I get from my Amex card and then volunteer. Think they’ll let me in on the offer if I pay off my balance in full each month?

Us responsible people are getting screwed ten ways to Sunday.

 
Comment by TheMightyQuinn
2009-02-23 14:45:27

So only those carrying a balance may get the $300? Way to reward stupidity, American Express. :(

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-02-23 16:38:44

I thought you had to pay the Amex off every month.

Comment by dude
2009-02-23 16:56:36

They also have revolving credit cards.

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Comment by Neil
2009-02-23 17:14:21

You’re overthinking.

Remember, there is a penalty for playing by the rules.

The $300 is for cheating and then coming ‘clean.’

Got Popcorn?
Neil

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Comment by potential buyer
2009-02-23 17:27:22

Not Amex Blue

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Comment by Inland Empire
2009-02-23 13:41:54

I think you are right this plan is as worthless as the Hope For Homeowners plan 400,000 was the estimate so far only 25 loan made in over 6 months.
But it makes the left feel good that something is being done while the right scream about it and really no one get anything. Here in Ca this plan want do diddly. Two why is every writer calling these home bargains no they aren’t, they are price to the market. The bubble price where simply inflated speculated value based on monopoly money. Now that real money is required prices are coming back to standard 3.5x income for buyers or an investor x10 rent to market valuations. Third this market will correct but there are not enough first time buyers to reclaim any of the loss valuation for years to come ie. no supply no demand. I think 20 years or more at 1-3% average appreciation to get back to near (576,000)2006 prices median for California housing prices, currently we are at 246,000 with more declines to come. Strap you seat belt people we still got a bumpy ride ahead of us.

Comment by DebtinNation
2009-03-01 11:07:12

You really need to learn how to use commas.

 
 
Comment by Julius
2009-02-23 13:51:01

“Chris Twoomey and his wife Jennifer illustrate the risk underlying the perceived opportunities. They moved to California from the Midwest in 2004 to pursue acting careers and had just begun to think the dream of home ownership was out of reach when the crash came and they saw their chance. The couple pounced in January, right after Jennifer learned she was pregnant with their first child, making an offer on a small, bank-owned home in suburban Los Angeles.”

Jesus Christ, no wonder we’ve got problems.

 
Comment by smathis
2009-02-23 14:14:36

‘They’re trying to cherry-pick at the bottom of the market,’ said Paul Croswhite, who says the district has offered him $749,000 for his home, which he said was valued at about $1.5 million three years ago. The offer, he said, would leave him with less than $100,000 after paying off his mortgage.”

You don’t say! They have the audacity to pay you so little for your house that you would only have a profit of $100K? In the worst housing market in decades, during the worst recession in decades? I mean, who do they think they are? Everybody knows that homeowners are entitled to at least a million $$$ payday when they sell their house…it’s in the constitution!

All I can say is, I hope this guy gets his wish and the school district doesn’t buy his house. No doubt he’ll sleep well at night, dreaming of all those imaginary equity $$$ that allow him to tell all the folks at cocktail parties that he’s a “millionaire.”

Comment by dude
2009-02-23 16:59:53

Perfect example of greed induced blindness. This guy is allowing a great opportunity to pass him by. Do you think he has taken a look at recent comps?

 
Comment by FoamFinger1
2009-02-23 17:02:40

Similar situation a few years ago;

A large heath club expands it’s operation and parking lot size. They buy out 3 of the 4 home owners abutting the parking lot. The last hold out would not sell. The club built out anyway. The parking lot went completely around his property line. After dealing with the noise and everything he tried to negoitiate with the club. They told him to go pound sand. Several years later the club went broke, sat empty with the big parking lot with a small house in the middle.

(Google the locale; 405 fwy & Goldnewest Blvd. Orange County CA
No. east side of the interchange if redevelopment hasn’t wiped it cear.)

Comment by Houston Observer
2009-02-23 20:04:05

Seems to be still there, although I found it at Goldenwest St rather than Blvd, and I’d call it the NW side of the exchange.

Comment by Left LA
Comment by DWM
2009-02-26 11:21:42

THAT IS HILARIOUS! Now I’m all for property rights, and that dude had every right to hold out, but stupid is stupid. He must have really enjoyed all the juiced-up ‘roid-ragers leaving the club every night when it closed, and I bet the summers, with that acre or two of concrete parking area surrounding his house did wonders for his electric bill.

In my LA neighborhood, we have so many houses that are hitting 400+ DOM b/c some sellers wants $1.4 mil for their 1400-sq ft fixers. It’s what their neighbors got in 2005-06, so it’s what they DESERVE!!! We have some friends who have to unload a house b/c of a divorce, and they just listed for $900k when the outdated comps say they’re worth $1.35, and they got an offer for $880,000 (they paid $400k in 1999), and they’re taking it, and one of the people on the street trying to sell the same kind of house for $1.4 called their buyer’s agent and said there was a registered sex offender living next door (which was a lie), but it caused the buyers to put on a hold on escrow until they checked it out. SLIMY!!!

My brother bought an REO up in the Bay Area near Salinas for about 45% of the neighborhood “comps.” Their next door neighbor has been trying to sell for 500+ days at $1 mil; my brother paid $385,000 for practically the exact same house. Even though my brother did nothing wrong, people on his street won’t talk to him.

MADNESS!

 
 
 
Comment by Max D.
2009-02-25 14:04:13

Oh, snap! I used to work out at that gym. I never knew the history. (And it never really occurred to me that that was a private residence.) Heh.

 
 
Comment by dude
2009-02-23 17:16:10

Additionally, I checked up on this yahoo and found the following further information. Zillow values his 4+3 2700sqft. home on 1/2 acre at $513K and even shillow put its max value at $912K in late ‘06/early ‘07.

He bought it in early ‘05 for $585K. Values in sylmar are currently dropping at a rate of 34.6% YOY.

He should take the money and run!

 
Comment by Neil
2009-02-23 17:17:17

lol

I’ve sworn off Schadenfreude… But this Croswhite is asking for a JT.

I too hope the state funding issues keep him from having to sell at that unfair $749k. Let him keep it. Let him find the open market price when down payments are required. I too am sure he’ll sleep well, until he doesn’t.

Got Popcorn?
Neil

Comment by not a gator
2009-02-23 18:22:08

He’s such a great case of “be careful what you wish for.”

Budget cuts may ax the school? Exactly what I was thinking. In two years, he’ll wish he had that 3/4 million offer. Choking on his own greed.

 
 
Comment by Big V
2009-02-23 18:48:46

I also have less than $100,000 left after paying off my taxes and my little trip to Vegas. Boo Phukk-ing Hoo.

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-02-23 19:15:35

Something like that happened in Las Vegas. I believe it was one of Wynn’s hotel. A couple of holdouts, wanted more money. So Wynn built around them.

 
 
Comment by MacAttack
2009-02-23 14:28:18

Reading about the place in Lard that sold for $70K and rents for $1080 (currently), I would say those rents will be dropping to about $600. Just a hunch.

Comment by David
2009-02-23 17:12:30

Why dont they ever run these numbers when they work the other way. What about in 2005 when the median for manteca was $300,000 and the rent was $1500. Or still today in San Francisco where the house is $1,000,000 and the rent is $3000.

 
 
Comment by bink
2009-02-23 14:34:33

Russia’s Richest Man Backs Out on $750 Million Mansion

I wish I had enough money to back away from a $55 million deposit. That poor guy.

Comment by Michael Fink
2009-02-23 16:40:02

You can look at that as a 55M dollar loss, or a 350M dollar gain. All depends on your perspective. :)

 
 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-02-23 14:47:50

Just bits here and there of the Vegas wrap up..is the real skinny located somewhere else?

Comment by Big V
2009-02-23 14:52:47

Who was it that started up a photobucket for the CA thing? Was that you? Maybe people should send their photos to that person, and said person could post the link to the the photobucket.

Comment by Cassandra
2009-02-23 16:33:26

Patience Big V. Some of us are still regaining consciousness.

And kudos to bink. How’d you manage to resume posting so quickly? Did you buy a crate of that miracle vitamin stuff at the airport?

 
 
Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2009-02-24 21:41:09

We’ll have more soon. I was minus a computer for a couple days (left my cord at the hotel) and will be adding photos as soon as I get them set up. Also, Lavi D is working on putting some video together that was shoot on the tour - but it takes time and some of us are still trying to recover from not sleeping! :D

 
 
Comment by Sallie
2009-02-23 15:23:04

“‘But we’re sticking it out,’ he said. ‘It’s perverse, but something inside of us does want to stay here. It’s sort of a belief that because it is Southern California and because it is the kind of place where everybody wants to be, it will come back eventually.’”

I’ve been to SoCal a couple of times. No offense to those of you who love it, but I’d rather have my spleen removed with a shrimp fork than live there. Not everyone is dying to be there. And I bet there are untold tens of thousands dying to get out.

Comment by Neil
2009-02-23 15:32:59

We hope a large fraction of the population develops that attitude. :) Go away. Flee!

How do you find an actor in LA?
Ask for the waiter. ;)

Got Popcorn?
Neil

Comment by Sallie
2009-02-23 15:50:41

Unfortunately it sounds like the majority of the people who want out are the productive people (read: working taxpayers) and the ones who want to stay are often the leeches. I realize I’m generalizing, but if the contributing members of your state leave, how will you all pay for all those illegal immigrant services?

Comment by gab
2009-02-23 16:13:57

I second Neil. I was proposing a couple of years ago that we pay people to leave California, but the recession/depression is a cheaper method.

And I don’t care who leaves - rich, poor, responsible or not. Just as long as they take their cars and get the frack off the freeway!

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Comment by dude
2009-02-23 17:19:37

Reverse Joads!

 
Comment by Neil
2009-02-23 17:25:11

Let me correct myself.

These two, in the example, sound like the typical freeloading ‘actor type’ who produce nothing but drink and food orders. I want that type to leave.

I know the good type will also leave. But I know that this downturn will filter out more of the chaff than the wheat. Oh, the illegals are here… But at least they’re willing to work vs. some mutli-generational welfare families.

With what is coming, the Rhodney King riots will look like nothing. When? I don’t know. Certainly not during this cool weather we’re having. I still recal what the last riots did to LA real estate sales. (It really put a damper on our of state/country buyers.)

I’m with gab. Get the frack off my freeway! :)
(Yes, I too watch Sci-fi.)

Got Popcorn?
Neil

 
Comment by pismoclam
2009-02-23 17:47:01

Easy there big fellow. I want to watch car chases on Channel 9 !!!

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-02-23 19:18:06

Agree 100% with Neil and gab.

 
 
Comment by ws
2009-02-23 17:42:38

I was born in Illinois and migrated out here as a kid.

You can say what you want about southern Cal, but I use to cringe on New Years Day when the Rose Bowl was on TV and the weather was 80 and sunny. You just new that another few hundred thou people were moving out here. And I agree, it has been spoiled and isn’t like it used to be.

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Comment by SteveH
2009-02-23 20:04:39

You want to see spoiled and isn’t like it used to be? Try Seattle.

 
 
Comment by Big V
2009-02-23 19:06:24

Um, yeah. You’re generalizing. We have the best Universities in the world in California. There’s a reason for that. Now scram, generalizer.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-02-23 15:51:30

‘but I’d rather have my spleen removed with a shrimp fork than live there.’

Ditto. Except then I’d prefer to go ahead and also eat my spleen, with a dash of wasabi, and no fingerbowl even, than live there.
I’m sure SoCal has a great many charms, but they all somehow managed to hide themselves with surpassing skill all the times I visited there to see my sister. It was hot, the air was dirty, and every breath I took tasted, besides the dirty, like other people’s breath. It seemed that every single bit of available natural beauty was overrun with exhausted-looking souls squeezing it weakly for spiritual refreshment. And, excuse me for saying this, but it’s what my eyes did behold, and I must ask, of all the teeming hordes jam-packing what looks like every inch of ground, is EVERYONE an ‘undocumented worker’ from Mexico? Or only 80 percent of everyone?
And I wasn’t even in the bad parts. My sister’s truck windows only got smashed and her house burglarized an average of about once per year the 4 years she was there.

So, ummm. Yeah. Bring me the shrimp fork and a napkin.

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-02-23 16:08:15

After posting I realized that my post sounded just a wee bit disrespectful. Sorry, socalers. I’m sure SoCal is very very extra wondrous super.
And, now that I think of it, I did get a great pair of sunglasses and I ate some excellent sushi when I was there, so, see—it’s not ALL bad, by any means.

Comment by DinOR
2009-02-23 16:33:39

If I could afford to live in one of the nicer areas ( renting or -otherwise- ) I’d do it in a heartbeat. Spend a decade or two in dreary OR and you’ll see what I mean.

When your wife gets stoked b/c you are taking her to Klamath Falls for the Guard weekend just to get out of the rain, well you get the idea. I’d love to see prices collapse in Palm Springs. I’m looking for an empty lot to park a 5th wheel trailer from Nov. to Apr.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-02-23 17:21:34

‘Spend a decade or two in dreary OR and you’ll see what I mean.’

I know. It’s horrible here in Washington, too. Rain, rain, rain….plus Bigfoot’s a serious as*shole, and everyone’s translucent and has grown nictating eyelids. Also, I like to run up and punch tan people in the stomach when I see them walking around Olympia. It doesn’t hurt, ’cause of these paltry little girl arms* but I bet it’s annoying, and plus, it’s the thought that counts.
So it’s best to not move here, everyone. Make a note of it, and spread the word. Go on!

 
Comment by NoSingleOne
2009-02-23 17:33:43

Yes, don’t move to Alaska either…horrible bitter cold, darkness 24/7 and igloos galore. The only social activities we have are dinner parties of the Donner variety.

Please keep your bubbley butts in warm Kalifornistan, Texico and Florindia.

 
 
Comment by awaiting wipeout
2009-02-23 16:47:55

Your 1st post was spot on. This place is now a 3rd world ghetto. So Ca was great circa 1990’s. Even places like Thousand Oaks are invaded with illegals.

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Comment by NoSingleOne
2009-02-23 17:27:07

It’s not fair that SoCal-ers got to refer to think of themselves as the center of the universe for so many years, then get upset that their own hubris is the reason it isn’t so true anymore.

The next bailouts will be federally subsidized desalination plants and buying water rights from farmers, as well as aerospace contracts to build ordnance that can kill thousands at a time instead of just a few measly hundred.

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Comment by Neil
2009-02-23 17:31:46

No no

SoCal is aweful. Horrid. No one would want to live here.

Huge Ghettos and Barrios.
Bad Air.
Crowded freeways with people driving by the rules of an estimated 47 nations (per some LA Times article… not a real figure).

Make sure you tell everyone that.

So I can live without so many fracking people where I call home.

Got Popcorn?
Neil

ps
I love NYC too. But I’m not living in a closet for the pleasure of living on Manhattan. To each their own.

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Comment by Fish in LA
2009-02-24 00:11:55

+1
It’s sheer misery-weekly ‘quakes, dysfunctional schools, high crime. No one should move here. Spread the word.
ps Neil when’s there gonna be a meetup for all us miserable Angelenos to commiserate with one another?

 
 
Comment by are they crazy
2009-02-23 21:52:13

It has it’s moments here. It’s going on 9 pm, about 65 outside and the air is scented with the citrus blossoms. Tomorrow it will be near 80, no real traffic, not much crime. Yes it will be hella hot for 3 mos this summer, when I will either escape or stay inside during the day and swim and play outside at night. Is it like the old days - not even close. Grew up in Westwood Village during the 60s. Heaven on earth - surfing before school, bonfires at the beach, you could get to snow, desert or disneyland in about in hour. As long as you like where you are, it doesn’t really matter what anyone else thinks of it.

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Comment by smathis
2009-02-24 05:55:46

I want to live in SoCal…if it can be the ’60s and ’70s.

Sherman, start the wayback machine!

 
 
Comment by The_Overdog
2009-02-24 09:00:53

At least you found some good sushi! I ate 2nd rate sushi at some place on Santa Monica pier and 3rd rate Mexican food at Marios & Aztecas in Huntington Beach.

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Comment by SDGreg
2009-02-23 16:29:52

I’d be just as happy if some of the people that visited never came back. Could there be a border checkpoint to make sure that exiting tourists are taking at least one illegal with them?

Comment by awaiting wipeout
2009-02-23 16:54:54

A man after my own heart. Thanks SDGreg.

DinOR-
Palm Springs is sooo freakin hot and dry, I hate it. I’ve been in a resort pool and was still frying my girls off. If you like movie hopping from one to another to stay cool, enjoy. As a told my husband, its worse than my vacations on Hot Flash Island!

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-02-23 17:17:08

‘…its worse than my vacations on Hot Flash Island!’

HAhahahaha! That’s funny!

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Comment by DinOR
2009-02-23 17:21:23

LOL! Yeah, I was poolside in Vegas for the 4th 2007. It was 116 degrees and the Pepsi I brought down was expanding as it sat on the concrete! No WAY you could walk barefoot.

Still, I just love it. I’ve done exhaustive research looking for “Banana Belts” and for snow-birding, nothing beats PS for the winter. Oh GOD no, I wouldn’t spend the summer there.

For the longest time I’d considered Baja. But with all the drugs/violence/kidnapping etc. it’s just not viable. I can’t see how they’ll get a handle on those problems in our lifetime?

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-02-23 17:34:21

‘Could …exiting tourists are taking at least one illegal with them?’

Why, I would indeed be willing. I have long held the thought that slavery has gotten a bad rap and deserves a second assessment as a potential life-choice, particularly for individuals who lack initiative and only need some guidance. But this’s as long as I get to pick which one I want. Someone who can make good pupusas, or else someone who looks good in too-short white pantaloons. Oh, yeah, or a mescal brewer. Although I guess it’d do no good, since we got no agave around here.
*flings away Data doll in a snit, over the lack of agave *

Comment by SDGreg
2009-02-23 20:36:09

Think bigger. Take two or three back and open up an all night taqueria just for the locals.

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Comment by reuven
2009-02-23 17:16:22

For 5 years I was an employee of a Hollywood studio. I just couldn’t bring myself to move there. Instead I’d fly back and forth each week and stay in hotels as needed.

Sure there are nice parts here and there, but there’s too much danger and wackiness, too. And hellish commutes. People would drive to Burbank from Marina Del Rey…and it would take me less time to fly from SJC->Burbank and take a cab the 5 miles to the studio.

Comment by SDGreg
2009-02-23 20:45:04

“People would drive to Burbank from Marina Del Rey…and it would take me less time to fly from SJC->Burbank and take a cab the 5 miles to the studio.”

And that drive could take even longer on a Saturday. I don’t miss the LA traffic, not at all. There were things I just stopped doing because after dealing with the ordeal of the traffic, I just didn’t want to do them any more. You just never knew how much longer a 2-3 hour outing could become after factoring in the traffic.

 
 
Comment by SaladSD
2009-02-23 20:15:16

Yeah, it sucks here. go away.

Comment by SDGreg
2009-02-23 20:38:13

It’s been horrible this winter. I’ve almost had to run the AC a time or two, no exercise from shoveling snow…

 
 
 
Comment by JohnF
2009-02-23 15:32:40
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-02-23 16:20:02

The SF used home median sales price in our zip code has dipped below $700K — I believe this is the first time this has occurred (it has stayed between $700K-$900K for the past couple of years):

Rancho Bernardo W 92127 19 $692,500 -20.9%

Comment by Observer
2009-02-23 16:49:27

Probably still way overpriced when factoring in how many have 20% down payments and the median income for Rancho Bernardo and not to mention the high Mello Roos in some RB locales.

 
Comment by JohnF
2009-02-23 17:27:30

You really need to track the per square foot trend on the SFR’s to get a good handle on what’s really going on with home values.

For example - in Thousand Oaks (91360) there has been a decline of -35.7% from the peak as far the median priced SFR, but the per square foot is only down -23.0%. What this tells you is that less expensive (and smaller) homes are the ones selling but the actual “home values” for this area are not declining nearly as much.

That is the mistake many people are making by buying now, they are paying lower prices but are getting a smaller house.

 
 
Comment by dude
2009-02-23 17:26:37

Despite all the talk of the blistering pace of bargain basement deals, I noted closings declined in all three Palmdale zips Dec./Jan. All three zips are under $100/sqft. now, also, all three zips provide poor competition for houses in the San Fernando valley that get cheaper by the month!

 
 
Comment by JohnF
2009-02-23 15:43:12

“Kathleen Kelleher, Sacramento County’s assistant assessor, said her office won’t begin considering new property values until June. ‘We’re in a period of time where it’s too late for last year and too early for next year,’ she said. ‘We kind of question why there’s any urgency to file.’”

Dear Kathleen:

The reason is, once the government realizes just how much property tax revenues are really going to decline, they will suspend the process (or at least tell you (Kathleen) to do your re-assessments a lot slower). It will probably be done in the interest of “financial stability” or some such nonsense.

The time to file for a re-assessment is now, so you’ll be grandfathered before they change the rules.

 
Comment by reuven
2009-02-23 17:13:07

“‘Does everyone presume once they have negative equity, it’s time to ditch their obligation and once they’re there, they’re entitled to assistance from taxpayers?’”

Of course they ALREADY GET assistance from us Taxpayers because forgiven mortgage debt is no longer taxed. But that benefit, worth $35,000 for every 100K forgiven, isn’t enough for these greedy people.

Comment by dude
2009-02-23 17:28:38

Doesn’t that expire at the end of ‘09? There is a window closing and most FBs don’t even know it.

Comment by takingbets
2009-02-23 19:37:01

it does expire this year, but I wonder if it will be extended again?

 
 
Comment by SDGreg
2009-02-23 21:12:40

“‘Does everyone presume once they have negative equity, it’s time to ditch their obligation and once they’re there, they’re entitled to assistance from taxpayers?’”

I don’t think it’s so much the negative equity or possible government assistance that are the bigger issues, but instead the crushing debt burden. Once the buyer finally realizes that the bubble price they paid isn’t coming back and they’re stuck with crushing payments indefinitely, walking away becomes the most viable option. That day isn’t yet here, but is getting closer.

There’ll be a second set of interesting decisions once it’s more widely realized that the economy of the past isn’t coming back. I think more people are at least beginning to wonder if what’s happening with the economy and housing is more than just a brief interruption in the upward climb of each.

 
 
Comment by lavi d
2009-02-23 17:23:00

Photos from Las Vegas get-together

here

 
Comment by martin cohen
2009-02-23 17:41:48

REA talk: “steal them” = “pay what it’s worth”.

 
Comment by milkcrate
2009-02-23 18:03:25

“Kathleen Kelleher, Sacramento County’s assistant assessor, said her office won’t begin considering new property values until June. ‘We’re in a period of time where it’s too late for last year and too early for next year,’ she said. ‘We kind of question why there’s any urgency to file.’”

Gee, what a question.
If we do not pay taxes with levels of urgency, flatfoots with badges ring the doorbell.

 
Comment by FP
2009-02-23 19:29:35

“pounced” now that’s a word we never use other that it was associated with sports.

Comment by pismoclam
2009-02-23 22:38:04

Pounced is a word associated with cats, tigers or otherwise.

 
Comment by Doghouse Riley
2009-02-24 06:16:40

Wouldn’t it be loverly if “bailout” was only used in the context of parachute jumping?

 
 
Comment by FreddyFender
2009-02-23 21:06:45

“retirees with dementia…”

Huh?

Pretty-funny,actually.

 
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