February 26, 2009

Still More An Art Than A Science

A report from the Oregonian. “Time ran out for the Bali family Thursday morning when a Clark County sheriff’s deputy arrived in an unmarked car. Krishneel Bali’s parents hadn’t told him they were losing the house to foreclosure, he said later. Now, as a truck backed into the driveway, he had 30 minutes to vacate. County records show the Balis bought the 1,436-square-foot house for $180,900 in 2005 as the housing market boomed. The latest financial company to own the house after foreclosure paid $158,400 in September as prices plunged.”

“Krish Bali said his grandmother’s house was too full to take in the family. So he would probably go one place, his sister another and his parents somewhere else. ‘I didn’t see this coming,’ he said. ‘We’re just kind of stuck.’”

The Sandy Post from Oregon. “Looking around Sandy, it is easy to see the construction industry is at a virtual standstill. The city has issued from zero to three building permits a month for the past four or five months. That’s a historic low. Tracy Brown, planning director for Sandy, says there are about four subdivisions that have gone through some level of development (prior to construction) before coming to a standstill.”

“‘A couple of (the subdivisions) are just waiting,’ Brown said. ‘One of them is essentially done. But (the developer) hasn’t recorded a final plat, and I don’t know why, unless it’s the economy that’s not doing well.’”

“Even though Tom Orth of Orth Construction is putting the final touches on a subdivision near Dodge Park Road and 302nd Avenue, he is virtually unemployed. ‘My Ten Eyck Rim project has been approved by the city,’ Orth said, ‘but I don’t think I am going to move forward on it at this time. I would like to build $200,000 homes there, but I’m just not getting any response from the market now. The economy is too shaky, and I don’t want to put more capital into it.’”

“Real estate agents and mortgage brokers are a little more positive about the market’s condition. There are plenty of safe home-loan options available for buying or refinancing, according to Kurt Nilsen, a mortgage broker who works mainly in Sandy. Nilsen says loans are not difficult to obtain. ‘There seems to be a misconception that home loans are difficult or impossible to get,’ he said. ‘This just isn’t accurate. Yes, home lenders have returned to requiring borrowers to fully document their income – a practice they never should have deviated from.’”

The Bellingham Herald from Washington. “January was a slow month for local home sales, with drops in prices and volume continuing the trend from last year. Setting a price that’s too high can really hurt the home seller, too.”

“Gragg Miller of Coldwell Banker Miller-Arnason wanted to show his agents the importance of pricing a home to reflect current market conditions, so he did some research about what happens when a seller is forced to reduce the original price. He suspected that it would take longer to sell the home, but he was still surprised by how much.”

“Miller did this research because he expects this year to be a very challenging in terms of figuring out the right price for a house, particularly in the high-end market, which has dropped off dramatically in recent months. ‘It is very difficult to figure out the value of anything above $500,000 right now,’ Miller said. ‘We don’t have people moving into the area looking at that price range like we once did. It’s also difficult to tell someone the price of a house might not be what they think it is, but more sellers are being flexible. They read the news and see what’s happening in the market.’”

“In trying to price a home correctly, Miller said the key is looking at the most recent sales and comparing similar homes. Six months - before the financial meltdown - won’t work. It needs to be sales within the past 60 days. ‘Even with comparables, pricing a home is still more an art than a science,’ Miller said.”

The Olympian from Washington. “A group of mostly couples in their 20s took the first steps toward buying a house Saturday by participating in a five-hour class to learn more about the homebuying process. The class, sponsored by the state Housing Finance Commission, is required by the state agency if prospective homeowners plan to use one of its programs, such as borrowing money for a down payment on a new house.”

“Prospective homeowners can prepare themselves for a higher monthly mortgage payment as renters, said Eagle Home Mortgage senior home loan consultant Nona Woodard. If monthly rent is $800 a month and a mortgage is $1,200 a month, renters should pay rent, then set aside an additional $400 to see if they can afford the higher payment, she said. ‘We don’t want you go to into payment shock,’ Woodard said.”

“Matt and Audrie Shellhart of Olympia attended Saturday’s class as longtime renters looking to buy a house for their growing family. Audrie said she and her husband have been careful with their money and think they could afford a monthly mortgage of $1,100, up from the $640 they pay in rent.”

“The good news is that the current South Sound housing market for the Shellharts and others is a buyer’s market, said real estate agent Shelly Field. An agent might show prospective buyers a house that appears to be beyond their budget only because they know ‘you can make a lower offer,’ she said.”

“Brian and Leslie Thompson of Tumwater joined the class because they said they were tired of being renters after six years of renting a condo, paying $950 a month. Leslie…seeks a house in a rural area that will offer more privacy. Brian’s wish list was shorter: ‘I just want a garage,’ he said.”

“In the year-over-year period ending in January, Thurston County median prices for single-family residences and condos fell 8.59 percent to $239,950 from $262,500, according to Northwest MLS data.”

The KOMO News from Washington. “An attorney has filed six lawsuits against the developer of a luxury condominium as well as JP Morgan Chase Bank for allegedly defrauding non-English speaking immigrants through predatory lending. Bellevue Towers boasts luxury living at its finest. The units feature a state-of-the-art kitchen and floor-to-ceiling windows. Attorney Jim Robinson said his clients, Daniel Kasimov and his wife, thought they’d sealed the deal on a $1.5 million unit in the complex.”

“But Kasimov only makes minimum wage, earning $20,000 per year. ‘He was told, ‘Don’t worry about that. The bank would never loan you money that you couldn’t afford to pay back,’ Robinson said.”

“Robinson represents six clients, all immigrants and many who can’t speak English. He claims they’ve all fallen victim to predatory lending. Robinson said his clients lost hundreds of thousands of dollars in earnest money, which is now sitting in escrow. Kasimov borrowed $75,000 to put down as earnest money.”

“Robinson alleges JP Morgan Chase overstated Kasimov’s annual income in order to pre-approve him for the loan. The pre-approval, however, never led to an actual loan and Kasimov lost his earnest money, Robinson said. ‘I can’t understand why they haven’t given him the money back,’ he said. ‘It’s come to this. I mean, this would not have been a lawsuit if they would’ve just given him the money back.’”

The Vancouver Sun from Canada. “The luxurious Ritz-Carlton hotel and condominium project in downtown Vancouver will not be completed as planned, the developer said. Holborn Group president Joo Kim Tiah said buyers of all pre-sold condo units will get their money back, but he refused to say the more than $500-million project is dead.”

“Tiah said Tuesday the project was ‘put on hold’ because they had not achieved the sales that they wanted. Only 62 of the 123 condos in the tower had been sold, not enough for the developer to move ahead and complete the project by 2011, he said.”

“What happened to the Ritz-Carlton could be the beginning of a wave of failures for other condo projects in Metro Vancouver, said Trevor Boddy, an architecture critic and consultant for urban design in Vancouver. ‘The failure of the Ritz-Carlton is the tip of the iceberg. It’s the first very large tree to fall downtown, and there will be a number of others,’ Boddy said.”

“Bob Rennie, a marketer for the project, said the global economic downturn has affected the luxury housing market. Rennie said property development projects will go ahead, but developers will have to refocus on what’s important to homebuyers in future. ‘What’s going to bring us out of this new economy? Is it affordability or is it luxury? I think there is really going to be a focus on affordability,’ he said.”

The Canadian Press. “‘It would be really foolish for us to go ahead with the project,’ said Tiah. The development would have been the second-tallest building in the city and was scheduled to be completed in 2011. Prices ranged from between $2.5 million and $10 million, with the penthouse set at $28 million.”

“The cancellation is the latest in a string of troubled developments in Canada’s most expensive real estate market which experts say is in a serious slump. ‘Vancouver’s market is already crashing, it’s no longer a question,’ said Brian Ripley, CEO of consulting group Oakes Ripley & Associates Inc. ‘Developers knew the top was in last year, it is not a mystery.’”

“Some condo developers are giving away cars and cutting prices by up to 40 per cent to try to unload unsold units. There are also lawsuits flying between developers and buyers attempting to walk away from pre-sale contracts. Another high-end development in Vancouver - the 61-storey, 191-unit Shangri-La that is the city’s tallest building - was completed earlier this year. Many of its units are currently being posted for sale and rent on local websites at prices considered cheap by Vancouver standard.”

“January saw Metro Vancouver builders start work on fewer than half the number of new homes they started in January 2008, a sign of things to come in 2009, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. ‘We were kind of expecting [a significant drop],’ Robyn Adamache, a Canada Mortgage and Housing analyst said in an interview. ‘I don’t know if we expected it to be this big.’”

“Adamache said inventories of unsold new homes built up over 2008 to double the number unsold at the end of 2007 (and) that with a record number of condominium units under construction — in the order of 18,000 units — she expected the inventory of unsold new homes could increase further over the next couple of years.”

The Edmonton Journal from Canada. “It was last August when real estate author and consultant Don Campbell crowned Edmonton the best place in North America to invest in residential real estate. Since then, the price of oil has plunged, the Alberta government has predicted a billion-dollar deficit and the city’s housing market has seen starts, prices and sales fall.”

“So is Edmonton still the best place to invest in residential real estate? ‘Absolutely, it is,’ he said during a visit to Edmonton from Vancouver. ‘There’s no way the world can continue to afford $30 and $40 oil. … Eventually, within 18 or 24 months, we’re going to see the market come back to something that’s more normal.’”

“Campbell is author of Real Estate Investing in Canada 2.0 and president of a business that offers training to its members on real estate investing. Last summer, a REIN report ranked Edmonton as the best place to invest in residential real estate, followed by Calgary, Red Deer, St. Albert and Grande Prairie. ‘That being said, we were so superhot here that the pendulum moved so quickly and has gone too far the other way. Like all economic pendulums, it comes back towards the norm and we’ll start to see that pendulum start to swing a little bit more for Edmonton’s sake. Right now, if you’re focusing on yields, it’s still the best place,’ he said.”

“In a note of caution, Campbell said condo buyers should be wary of rushing to buy a piece of undeveloped property. ‘We need to be cognizant that there are an awful lot of new condos coming onto the market, not just in Edmonton, but in Calgary and Vancouver. Please don’t line up to buy a piece of property,’ Campbell said.”




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110 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2009-02-26 10:25:16

‘I can’t understand why they haven’t given him the money back’

I worked as a corporate accountant for a few years, and the answer to this is simple: THEY DON’T HAVE IT!

Anyhoo, Vancouver continues through the OS phase of the housing bubble. Good luck up there.

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2009-02-26 10:34:09

‘I can’t understand why they haven’t given him the money back’

Seems, Donald “pucker lips” sTrump wealth video’s… have spawned business strategy “ethic” clones. ;-)

 
Comment by bink
2009-02-26 11:17:39

But Canadian banks don’t give out no-doc, 100%, or sub-prime loans? How is this possible?

*snicker*

Comment by mikey
2009-02-26 13:33:29

The Edmonton Journal from Canada. “It was last August when real estate author and consultant Don Campbell crowned Edmonton the best place in North America to invest in residential real estate. Since then, the price of oil has plunged, the Alberta government has predicted a billion-dollar deficit and the city’s housing market has seen starts, prices and sales fall.”

Don is also noted for mixing stale Acopoca Gold with dried moose turds and smoking heavily during the winter long months :)

 
 
Comment by ella
2009-02-26 12:38:49

“Good luck up there.”

Everyone is banking on a spring bounce.

Vancouver is like Florida in 2006-ish, psychologically.

Unemployment is growing quickly up here. A bit scary. We have very poor infrastructure: gaming, tourism, forestry and construction. Yikes.

Comment by X-GSfixer
2009-02-26 13:46:39

So, let’s make I sure I get this right………

-”No speeka de Engleesh” immigrant puts down 75K deposit (with the seller/developer/property manager??), because the Realtwhore/developer/property manager says “the bank won’t lend you money if you can’t repay it.”

-Bank actually reads the loan app., starts ROTFLTAO while pitching app in the circular file.

-Immigrant lawyers-up, sues BANK for actually reviewing the app, and doing the right thing for a change?

Seems to me this guy issue is with the sellers, not the bank.

Comment by Rally
2009-02-26 17:26:55

This guy making 20k was able to borrow 75k to lose as earnest money? Who would lend that? The most he should be able to borrow is 60k on a first mortgage.

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Comment by incredulous
2009-02-26 13:38:18

Putting Barney Frank’s drivel aside, has anyone with non-crap credit actually experienced any trouble getting credit? A few weeks ago I applied for 3 credit cards for rewards reasons (actually 2 for me and one for the wife). I was half expecting to get rejected or low CL’s. I was pretty shocked when all of them came with CL’s of at least $25,000. Further I didn’t even list an employer on any of the applications ( I stopped that practice after I heard a top banking official say they only ask for that information to get a jump-start on collections). Aren’t these companies even slightly concerned I might have been laid-off recently and I’m applying for a bunch of credit cards to live off of with no means of paying them back?
Also it seems I’m getting more credit offers than ever, I even got the one from Amex for 50,000 bonus points ($500 gift cards) with no annual fee.

Comment by Big V
2009-02-26 14:47:51

No problems getting credit here. I never put down my employer. I tell them I’m self employed, I understate my income, and I never put down any credit references. All they do is check the FICO. I’m like a platinum customer or some such.

Too bad I never pay any interest, though.

 
Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2009-02-26 14:58:46

They only care about the FICO score. Nothing else matters to them. I have good salary, zero debt, but little credit history and it was difficult getting any card.

 
Comment by Hailey
2009-02-26 22:09:44

We just got a letter this week from our credit card that said due to our excellent credit history they were upping our limit - of course, we don’t need to do anything, it’s just automatic.

“Shhhh, don’t worry your pretty little head about it. Just go spend the money. Enjoy!”

 
 
Comment by Big V
2009-02-26 14:39:00

I used to be a bill collector. Most of the time, they don’t have it. Sometimes they’re playing games with their ex-spouse. Every now and then you get someone who pays and you say “I don’t understand why they’re giving back the money”.

Comment by bink
2009-02-26 14:52:20

A bill collector? Really? Is Persey ok with this?

Comment by Big V
2009-02-26 17:05:46

I never thought of that angle …

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Comment by ahansen
2009-02-26 23:14:20

snort!

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Comment by edgewaterjohn
2009-02-26 10:41:07

“Audrie said she and her husband have been careful with their money and think they could afford a monthly mortgage of $1,100, up from the $640 they pay in rent.”

I like to tack on an extra $20 to all my utility bills…just to say thanks!

Comment by HARM
2009-02-26 12:20:03

Also:

said Eagle Home Mortgage senior home loan consultant Nona Woodard. If monthly rent is $800 a month and a mortgage is $1,200 a month, renters should pay rent, then set aside an additional $400 to see if they can afford the higher payment”

Yup, Realturd math. I love how no one questions the underlying assumption about whether it’s even wise to spend a lot more to lease a house vs. renting it. Uhmerikan Dream. Renter=loser, “owner”=winner. If you don’t have a mortgage, the terrorists win, your family will shun you, and you’ll die lonely and unloved.

Comment by Big V
2009-02-26 14:50:41

WE love you HARM. You’ll never die!

Comment by mikey
2009-02-26 16:57:01

“…your family will shun you, and you’ll die lonely and unloved”

HEY !! …If you plan to die any other way than that, you HAVEN’T been LIVING right in the 1st place !

Don’t worry son, me and your new 23 yr old step-mom will send you a postcard from RIO :)

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Comment by HARM
2009-02-27 11:18:38

Right back at’cha, Big V!

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Comment by az_lender
2009-02-26 16:42:39

My reaction to Nona’s advice was just the same. I wanted to revise it to, “renters should pay rent, PERIOD.”

 
 
Comment by not a gator
2009-02-26 14:14:46

*snort*

Imagine if the telecoms started running ads asking you how would you like to pay more every month for your telephone, tv, and internet?

 
Comment by HousePoor
2009-02-26 14:26:41

This sounds like a disaster in the making . . .

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-02-26 10:41:45

This post included a description of a homebuying class. I took one of those classes five years ago. It was taught by a local non-profit organization.

In addition to stressing the importance of being careful with one’s money before, during, and after one buys a house, this course also made another important point:

Get an outside opinion if you don’t understand your mortgage paperwork. The organization offered to sit down with us, free of charge, to review our paperwork. And they were more than ready to warn us if they spotted something that smelled fishy.

So, it wasn’t like we were being thrown to the mortgage broker-wolves.

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2009-02-26 10:57:27

“…stressing the importance of being careful with one’s money before, during, and after one buys a house,”

Well, looking forward…it a good thing that most “Home Ownership” in America requires x2 jobs and the promise 30 years of un-interrupted job security that is being developed by most US Corporations & global think tanks. ;-)

Comment by HARM
2009-02-26 12:21:50

and the promise 30 years of un-interrupted job security that is being developed destroyed by most US Corporations & global think tanks.

There –all fixed!

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2009-02-26 19:13:07

:-) Thanks!

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Comment by desertdweller
2009-02-26 23:13:47

You are magic. Poof/voila.

How d’ya do that magic stuff. Just like corporate acctg.

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Comment by aNYCdj
2009-02-26 14:37:56

I would think a couple of laptops, 1 tv, 1 used car, plus furniture from the goodwill, you can live on 1 salary and pay the mortgage

Maybe buy a smaller ranch so you can finish off the basement for more family time.

I’m amazed how few people really use their basements fully. We did, my father sectioned off 1/4 for the playroom/ stereo room, 1/4 was dads DeWalt saw and tools and 1/2 was empty space wall racks food storage…and enough room for 20+ people on his annual NYE party with the neighbors

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it a good thing that most “Home Ownership” in America requires x2 jobs and the promise 30 years of un-interrupted job security

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-02-26 16:31:22

Okay, everybody, click the DJ’s link and report to the dance floor.

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Comment by Curt
2009-02-26 10:48:03

“An attorney has filed six lawsuits against the developer …. for allegedly defrauding non-English speaking immigrants through predatory lending. … Attorney Jim Robinson said his clients, Daniel Kasimov and his wife, thought they’d sealed the deal on a $1.5 million unit in the complex.”

I guess if I moved to Whatheheckasan and looked at a neat condo, I’d just pony up a million or two despite the fact I could speak the local dialect.

Comment by not a gator
2009-02-26 14:16:34

“Hey buddy, you see that bridge up there? Yeah. That’s the one. Nice piece a’ real estate, ya think? Look, buddy, I’m gonna make a deal wit’ you…”

 
Comment by climber
2009-02-26 14:19:05

“…Kasimov borrowed $75,000 to put down as earnest money.”

From whom? So far it looks like Kasimov isn’t out anything from his own pockets.

 
Comment by Big V
2009-02-26 14:55:46

I hate it when people try to use their language as an excuse for signing a contract. Since when did banks start holding JTs to people’s derriers and demanding that they sign contracts written in a language they don’t understand?

Have it interpreted, people!

Comment by Jimbo
2009-02-26 19:59:57

One local magistrate got called on the carpet about a decade ago for the way he handled defendants who purported not to understand English. The judge very nonchalantly would tell the defendants to do this or that (”Come on up, sir….Step closer….Speak into the mic,” etc.) If the defendant complied with enough of the directions, then the judge was satisfied the defendant understood English, noted what had occurred for the record, and denied the defendant’s request for a postponement until a later date when an interpreter would have to be paid to attend. Someone must have complained about the judge’s routine; probably some organization for the interpreters. Judge was chastised by a higher court for his practices and, of course, portrayed in the papers as some crazed xenophobic nativist. That’s what a little horse sense buys you nowadays.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-02-26 23:29:50

That’s a little short-sighted Jimbo. I know how to say very basic things in several languages but doesn’t mean that I could defend myself in court in those languages.

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Comment by In Montana
2009-02-26 11:01:52

“‘There’s no way the world can continue to afford $30 and $40 oil. ”

What??? why not? Yeah $20 oil would be better….

Comment by SMF
2009-02-26 11:08:00

Idiots, how little does it take to change the perception of ‘normal’. Not too long ago, $60 oil was expensive. It isn’t going back up, and neither are homes.

Comment by taxmeupthebooty
2009-02-26 11:13:09

did they find some oil ?
\green/alt energy is just a tax

Comment by holytrainwreck
2009-02-26 12:47:34

Speculators. Speculators got burnt on the way up, speculators are getting burnt now.\

Bears no relation to the actual cost of pumping a barrel of crude out of the ground, processing it, and finding its way into the multitude of products we take for granted today.

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Comment by Neil
2009-02-26 12:14:26

Eventually, within 18 or 24 months, we’re going to see the market come back to something that’s more normal.’”

So why buy now? Rent is cheaper today. What if the &*%!’ing Realtors ™ are wrong again? Since a normal market has fairly low price appreciation, this quoted ‘author.’

“In a note of caution, Campbell said condo buyers should be wary of rushing to buy a piece of undeveloped property. ‘We need to be cognizant that there are an awful lot of new condos coming onto the market, not just in Edmonton, but in Calgary and Vancouver. Please don’t line up to buy a piece of property,’ Campbell said.”
Ok, his caveats keep him from receiving the full JT treatment, today.

But he should have noted “The shear overhang of new and speculative inventory is setting up the market for a spectacular plunge. This inventory, combined with the local job losses due to low oil prices, will hit sale and rental prices hard for 18 to 24 months. The pendulum will swing past normal to the downside thanks to the bubble hangover we must suffer through. We’ll return to a normal market if oil prices creep back up after prices plummet to what local wages can support, eh.”

I have a feeling if I read any of his books, this ‘author’ would qualify for the cayanne pepper treated JT therapy. But I’ll leave that to his ’satisfied’ customers. I’m sure no one would be upset at following his prediction of: “ Last summer, a REIN report ranked Edmonton as the best place to invest in residential real estate, followed by Calgary, Red Deer, St. Albert and Grande Prairie.

lol If I were Campbell I’d change my residence and name very quickly.

Got Popcorn?
Neil

Comment by Big V
2009-02-26 15:00:19

Why is it important for this individual to be an “author”? So he paid someone to publish his drivel. So what? We’re all authors too, DUH!

 
 
Comment by Wickedheart
2009-02-26 13:06:02

No way the world can continue to afford $30 and $40 oil but we must keep those home prices up. Gotcha

 
Comment by cobaltblue
2009-02-26 14:45:37

“There’s no way the world can continue to afford $30 and $40 oil.
What??? why not? Yeah $20 oil would be better”

I always enjoyed those 25 cent mugs of beer during Junior College days. Wonder if the world could afford those?

I say, go for it.

Comment by In Montana
2009-02-26 15:06:50

Campbell is in Alberta, and that’s oil country IIRC. I didn’t think they’d be too happy about oil DOWN to only $30-40 a barrel!

 
 
Comment by az_lender
2009-02-26 16:49:18

I think what Don Campbell, who was hyping Alberta, actually meant, was not that the world couldn’t “afford” $30 and $40 for a barrel of oil, but that the exploration companies would stop exploring if the price didn’t bounce back up. And that, of course, will result eventually in the price bouncing back up. I agree oil must rise again — much sooner than HOUSE prices.

Comment by New Zealand Renter
2009-02-26 20:17:19

Yes. Tar sand oil production needs $50 a barrel to break even. Tar sand capacity expansion has been canceled, no financing available with the oil price so low.

Deep water oil costs $90 a barrel to break even. That is why those very high risk, high capital cost projects weren’t even contemplated until recently. Several deep water projects have been deferred due to the current low price.

For 2009, the depletion rate of existing fields will be about 9%. The 2010, 2011, and 2012 annual old field depletion rates will be over 10%. Even with the depression, falling oil supply will catch up with falling demand. Eventually, if people want new oil, they will have to pay up to the price of the marginal new barrel.

Comment by desertdweller
2009-02-26 23:23:41

Well if that is accurate, 90$ to break even, then why was the price of $25.oo barrel in ‘77 so astonishing and the champagne flowed? Was unknowing participant of that party. All I recall was the stated reason, oil went over $25 barrel. It definitely was a celebration. Gee, maybe the corps are taking too much skim then as now.

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Comment by DinOR
2009-02-26 11:15:51

“I would like to build $200,000 homes there”

Oh, pffftt, NOW you wanna’ build 200k homes! What do you want to bet 3 years ago most builders thought that was what the LOT should have gone for here!?! Sorry pal, the time for being sensible has come and gone.

 
Comment by snake charmer
2009-02-26 11:35:34

There is a disturbing sense of gradiosity afoot when a developer plans the highest tower in a high-rise city and names it Shangri-La. On that theme, there are condos in Miami named Eden and Nirvana, and a Google search shows condos in several locations named Valhalla and Paradise. We ought to take Shangri-La and rename it “Bad Idea,” after that SNL skit from many years ago.

http://tinyurl.com/aun58g

Comment by DinOR
2009-02-26 15:29:50

snake charmer,

Always preferred “The Dark Towers of Financial Doom” myself! I certainly hope there aren’t HOA’s in “Paradise”?

Comment by ozajh
2009-02-26 21:47:24

Awwwww, shucks (* holds hat, shuffles feet and looks embarrassed *)

IIRC I was still posting as plain ajh back then . . .

 
 
Comment by Will
2009-02-27 01:56:21

Condo names–I especially like the one in San Diego named La Boheme. Don’t they know that Mimi lived and died in an unheated attic garret–essentially a slum?

 
 
Comment by Neil
2009-02-26 11:54:34

“Some condo developers are giving away cars and cutting prices by up to 40 per cent to try to unload unsold units. There are also lawsuits flying between developers and buyers attempting to walk away from pre-sale contracts. Another high-end development in Vancouver - the 61-storey, 191-unit Shangri-La that is the city’s tallest building - was completed earlier this year. Many of its units are currently being posted for sale and rent on local websites at prices considered cheap by Vancouver standard.”

My, when real estate doesn’t only go up things happen fast. ;)

How many of the landlords will actually pay their mortgage if the rent is far less than the cash burn?

Questions:
1. Vancouver foreclosure moretoriums ahead?
2. Will Canada put forth renter’s rights like Freddie/Fannie to slow inventory growth too?

I mean, those strategies have worked so well everywhere else that was overbuilt. [/snark]

Got Popcorn?
Neil

 
Comment by taxmeupthebooty
2009-02-26 11:54:54

anyone know how you look up a plat or an incomplete subdivision by county ?
tia

Comment by not a gator
2009-02-26 14:19:34

depends on the county! call your county tax assessor’s office and ask if they have a website.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-02-26 14:30:40

Or visit your local reference librarian.

 
 
 
Comment by smathis
2009-02-26 11:57:40

“County records show the Balis bought the 1,436-square-foot house for $180,900 in 2005 as the housing market boomed.”

If you click on the link, you’ll read that there are FOUR adults who were living in that house (Mom, Dad, 21-year-old son and 20-year-old daughter.

Lots of whining about “losing the American Dream” of homeownership, yet only ONE of the adults living there was working. Nobody was mentioned as being physically or mentally disabled. Are you telling me that four working adults - even at $9 an hour “McJobs” couldn’t have managed to pay a $181K mortgage?

If each of them earned $18K per year, that would total $72K per year income. Let’s assume they put zero down and had a fairly high (for 2005) interest rate of 7%. Their monthly payment would be around $1100 per month. Very affordable when you’ve got $6K coming in per year.

C’mon, folks…is the “American Dream” you were wishing for really all about just being handed stuff for free?

Comment by smathis
2009-02-26 11:59:39

I meant “very affordable when you’ve got $6K coming in per MONTH.” Sheesh.

 
Comment by skroodle
2009-02-26 12:06:39

They signed up to make a fortune in real estate, not make house payments.

 
Comment by NoSingleOne
2009-02-26 12:22:21

The American Dream is more like an illusion of wealth. Most immigration is about economics and opportunity.

Comment by NoSingleOne
2009-02-26 12:30:25

BTW, according to the article the parents were employed until recently but were laid off presumably because of the economy and the two adult kids were in college. Things were great, until they weren’t.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-02-26 12:38:11

“Most immigration is about economics and opportunity.”

That was certainly the case with my ancestors!

Comment by az_lender
2009-02-26 16:55:01

There’s also fear. In his early 20’s my grt-grandfather picked a bar fight with someone who turned out to be the Baron de Rothschild. Upon being challenged to a duel, my ggf accepted with pleasure, but the Baron hired a stand-in of course. My ggf killed the stand-in in the duel. Later that night, someone came to my ggf’s house and told him it would be a really smart idea to leave for America. He did.

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Comment by Big V
2009-02-26 17:15:46

So az_lender comes from a long line of barfighters and muderers, huh? I gotta remember to take you with me next time.

 
 
 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-02-26 23:31:32

We’ve got RICH Dad coming into town next wknd to tell us all about the reason Savers are going to lose/have Lost, is because the Wealthy will still get wealthy, they have financial educations.
Yep, the RD/PD Kiosaki is inundating the local airwaves with this tidbit, and sure as sh!t there will be lots of eager attendees in the Palm Springs/Palm Desert area.

 
 
Comment by ella
2009-02-26 12:33:38

I don’t understand how 4 people couldn’t make that mortgage, either. That was strange. Did they borrow against it?

One key part of that story was that the 2 kids (both adults, but, you know) were both unaware that the house was going to be foreclosed on. Maybe, if the parents had let them in on it, they would have scrambled to pitch in, too. Or at least had time to prepare. 30 minutes is pretty short notice that you have nowhere to live!

 
Comment by Skip
2009-02-26 12:55:37

They failed to mention the time frame - are we supposed to think that they both lost their jobs 7 months ago and are already evicted?? They must have immediately stopped paying the mortgage, but did manage to pony up 4 semesters of college for the two kids?

That seems awfully quick for now a days.

 
Comment by Big V
2009-02-26 15:07:16

The mom and brother lost their jobs, while the sister is a student. Perhaps more importantly, though — Is that a bear skin they have tacked up on their wall? I like to display the skins of dead animals in my house too. Makes me feel dominant.

Comment by Skip
2009-02-26 16:26:06

Looks like a water spot to me.

And by the way, the guy in the picture looks pretty suspicious in that picture, somehow I doubt he is really “saving” anything for that family.

 
 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-02-26 12:15:49

Paging Olympiagal, this post needs you!

Comment by mikey
2009-02-26 17:16:59

Olygal is busy…she’s busy raiding the Surfs village for their mushroom baskets :)

Comment by llcarlos
2009-02-26 20:11:30

Smurffs, or in French, Strumps and Strumpette.

 
 
 
Comment by HARM
2009-02-26 12:26:33

‘It is very difficult to figure out the value of anything above $500,000 right now,’ Miller said.

This reminds me of the so-called “conundrum” Heli-Ben is currently in with all those bank toxic assets he keeps wanting to move to the taxpayer’s balance sheets. No one’s bidding on them at current asking prices, so how to “value” them?

Here’s a clue to Miller: those houses are no longer worth $500,000.
Here’s a clue to Heli-Ben: those Alt-A MBSs & CDOs are no longer worth anything.

Comment by DinOR
2009-02-26 12:59:52

HARM,

The kindly gentleman that runs the local PDX Blog has opined that eventually… ALL subprime mortgages will go under! I thought about that for… about a minute before I realized, he’s absolutely right!

Comment by Muggy
2009-02-26 17:21:43

“No one’s bidding on them at current asking prices, so how to “value” them?”

Lol, reminds of one of my crazy NYC buds that always says, “who wants to make love to a dead corpse?”

He’s said it enough to raise a few eyebrows.

 
 
 
Comment by New Zealand Renter
2009-02-26 12:28:06

“Another high-end development in Vancouver - the 61-storey, 191-unit Shangri-La that is the city’s tallest building - was completed earlier this year. Many of its units are currently being posted for sale and rent on local websites at prices considered cheap by Vancouver standard.”

I hear the music now,

Condos for sale or rent
Boomboxes playing Fifty Cent.
We keep pit bulls for pets
Smoke funny cigarettes
Ah, but..two hours in the dole queue
Buys a Shangri-La condo room
I’m a Canuk of means by no means
King of Vancouver.

Comment by holytrainwreck
2009-02-26 12:52:50

Once the 2010 Olympics farce is over the real burst will happen to this nonsense Vancouver bubble.

 
Comment by ET-Chicago
2009-02-26 14:16:48

Nice job on the Roger Miller rewrite, New Zealand Renter.

 
Comment by oxide
2009-02-26 19:19:06

Boomboxes playing Fifty Cent? :-)

+1

 
Comment by New Zealand Renter
2009-02-26 19:48:07

Ok, I finished it …

King of Vancouver (With Apologies to Roger Miller)

Condos for sale or rent
Boomboxes playin’, Fifty Cent
We keep pit bulls for pets
And smoke funny cigarettes
Ah, but, two hours in the dole queue
Buys a Shangri-La condo room
I’m a Canuk of means by no means
King of Vancouver.

Ridin’ the bus for to rest my feet,
To 1128 Georgia Street
Old worn out suits and shoes,
I don’t pay condo association dues,
I screw old Realtors TM I have found
They’re desperate and they hang around
I’m a Canuk of means by no means
King of Vancouver.

I know the mortgage brokers, they’re all the same,
All of their children, and all of their names
We be takin’ bailouts from every town
And every lock that ain’t locked
When no one’s around.

I sing,
Condos for sale or rent
Boomboxes playin’, Fifty Cent
We keep pit bulls for pets
And smoke funny cigarettes
Ah, but, two hours in the dole queue
Buys a Shangri-La condo room
I’m a Canuk of means by no means
King of Vancouver.

Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-02-26 20:31:01

BRAVO, BRAVO, BRAVO.

Job well done New Zealand Renter

 
 
Comment by New Zealand Renter
2009-02-26 19:57:34

King of Vancouver (With Apologies to Roger Miller) - edit

Condos for sale or rent
Boomboxes playin’, Fifty Cent
We keep pit bulls for pets
And smoke funny cigarettes
Ah, but, two hours in the dole queue
Buys a Shangri-La condo room
I’m a Canuk of means by no means
King of Vancouver.

Ridin’ the bus for to rest my feet,
To 1128 Georgia Street
Old worn out suits and shoes,
I don’t pay condo association dues,
I screw old Realtors TM I have found
They’re desperate and they hang around
I’m a Canuk of means by no means
King of Vancouver.

I know the mortgage brokers, they’re all the same,
All of their children, and all of their names
We be takin’ bailouts from every town
And every lock house that ain’t locked
When no one’s around.

I sing,
Condos for sale or rent
Boomboxes playin’, Fifty Cent
We keep pit bulls for pets
And smoke funny cigarettes
Ah, but, two hours in the dole queue
Buys a Shangri-La condo room
I’m a Canuk of means by no means
King of Vancouver.

 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-02-26 13:01:11

Whoooo hoooo! A PNW thread!

Here in Thurston we are surely starting to join the ‘Unpleasant Consequences’ Party. I was just discussing with a meat person what people are going to do to get by, and also just posted in bits about bank robbers.
I swear, around here robbing banks on the westside is like a freakin’ hobby or a casual pastime. Like crocheting doilies, or making bird-calls. And it’s amateur hour, because they alla time get captured while they’re still in the giant chicken outfit, or whatever disguise it was they wore.
Hmmm. I’m thinking…actually, I can’t think of a bank robbery in the last month or so, so maybe everyone’s still sewing sequins onto their pretty bank-robbing disguises. But awhile ago it seemed like we had one once a week here in Thurston co.
Hahahahaha! That reminds me of the one guy awhile ago, he robbed Key West and put on a scuba diving outfit and goes running for the bay. His plan was to haul his bags of money along tied to his waist and, get this: Swim. To. Shelton. along the Puget Sound shoreline. (Shelton’s kinda far away. No, I mean FAAAAR away.) Luckily for him, his life was saved when the cops tackled him as he was still sprinting for the inlet, because it turns out you can’t run too good in flippers.
HAhahahahaAHAHAHAha! HAhahaha!

Ahhhh. I really love my town. Really, truly.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-02-26 14:27:15

‘Bout time you showed up, girl :-).

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-02-26 17:43:12

Sorry. I drank lunch. You know how it is.

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-02-26 17:46:57

And in a little while I’m a’gonna go drink dinner. I will say one thing, lobbyists and electeds do know how to party. For a ev*il bunch of fu*ckin’ duplicitous, sneaky, grasping, Morlockian wretches, that is.
Hey, does that phrase rhyme with something? That’s, like, sonnet material, there!

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-02-26 14:34:51

If the flipper-wearing bank robber didn’t get a mention on Fark, then Drew Curtis isn’t doing his job.

 
Comment by Kim
2009-02-26 14:57:16

“I can’t think of a bank robbery in the last month or so, so maybe everyone’s still sewing sequins onto their pretty bank-robbing disguises.”

Sequins? Pretty disguises? Carefully guard that tiara collection, Olygal… it sounds like they’re planning to frame YOU!

 
Comment by Big V
2009-02-26 15:13:27

What kind a fool would rob a bank? Banks don’t have any money in them, everyone knows that.

Comment by DinOR
2009-02-26 15:34:27

LOL!

“Gimme all your I.O.U’s!” That’s right, and don’t try any of that funny stuff or I’ll whack you with my imaginary… paintball gun!

 
Comment by Skip
2009-02-26 16:27:09

Only people with MBAs rob banks these days.

 
 
Comment by bluprint
2009-02-26 15:34:47

the giant chicken outfit

This reminds me of the time my friend got a gig to dress in a rabbit costume to promote a new car wash. He was standing outside waving at traffic and such.

A guy pulls up with his radio on and my friend started to do “the robot”. The guy in the car was also “dancing”, then someone who was evidently watching my friend instead of traffic rammed into a stopped car (causing a multi car accident).

The guy in the car who had the radio and was dancing said “Oh snap rabbit, look what you did!” and took off.

Ever since that day, when something surprises me, I say “Oh snap rabbit!”.

good times.

Comment by desertdweller
2009-02-26 23:41:19

Reminds me of the time gal pal and I were driving the 5 fwy in LA in my 84 JeepCherokee, when galpal says, oh look, that guy in car ahead is getting ahead.
I replied, how do you know…well ya just had to watch for half a sec and you would know… my car speed(didn’t speed up, honest) eventually got along side of him and voila, a cute little face appeared looking at us in the jeep.
HAHAHA
Fun times. Later, when all you could see was him again, he gave the thumbs up gesture. STG.

 
 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-02-26 20:33:31

He sure would have had a long swim to Shelton. Me thinks he had eaten some mushroom before robbing the bank.

 
 
Comment by Blano
2009-02-26 13:39:04

“Attorney Jim Robinson said his clients, Daniel Kasimov and his wife, thought they’d sealed the deal on a $1.5 million unit in the complex.”

“But Kasimov only makes minimum wage, earning $20,000 per year.”

1.5 million divided by 20,000….that’s gotta be a new record. Did the strawberry pickers get that far out of whack??

Comment by Mo Money
2009-02-26 14:26:02

I was unaware that being unable to speak english made you also unable to understand basic math or smell a scam.

 
Comment by polly
2009-02-26 15:57:52

The strawberry pickers had two adults in the household each making about $17,500 per year for total household income of $35K and house price of $700K if I recall correctly.

So, no. The strawberry pickers were at 20 times income and this guy is at 75 times. New record.

 
Comment by NYchk
2009-02-27 06:33:02

“But Kasimov only makes minimum wage, earning $20,000 per year.”

As if… The guy is the owner of a limo company, and had several RE transactions in his name in the last few years.

He claims he only makes $20k on his taxes, the rest is under the table. Typical for a tax-avoiding self-employed.

In NYC the greatest selling point of a condo vs. coop was - “it’s perfect for small business owners who can’t prove their incomes”, and work for cash (never mind blatant tax-evasion).

He probably never intended to live in the condo either. A flip gone bad, a flipper got his comeuppance.

 
 
Comment by MovedToAugusta
2009-02-26 16:38:34

Slightly off-topic;

I read that the new US federal budget includes lowering the mortgage tax deduction for high income earners.

Any prediction as to what affect that will have?

Comment by polly
2009-02-26 16:44:28

Not much. Those folks were mostly hitting AMT issues anyway.

 
Comment by poormancometh
2009-02-26 18:07:40

Under current law, the mortgage deduction is limited to a thresh hold which if their return was being completed correctly would currently limit their mortgage interest deduction.

Blame the rich for a lot of today’ s problems but the top percentage of earners pay almost half the tax in this country. On the flip side, last year 40% of Americans paid no income taxes. This was projected to go to 60% this year.

 
 
Comment by Big V
2009-02-26 17:08:25

I just noticed something hare-brained about Zillow. A house in my neighborhood recently sold for less than near-historical comps. So that house shows as being worth less than all the houses around it, except for the 2 right next door. Is Zillow’s model more sophisticated than my vulgar organic-based brain, or is there just something wrong with it?

Comment by climber
2009-02-26 17:58:57

There’s something wrong with Zillow. My house was valued really high, I sold it for way less and it dropped for a couple of days -a month tops and it’s right back up again. What a bunch of dorks.

House down the street has been for sale for months, Zillow says it’s priced right, market seems to disagree.

My mom priced her house $20k under Zillow it sat for months. She’s relisting it for way under Zillow this spring - we’ll see how it goes.

I don’t even bother with their site anymore. The county assessor is way better.

Comment by DennisN
2009-02-26 20:25:44

Zillow has a lot of problems these days. A house across from my old place in San Jose was listed for hundreds of days by a realtor for $700K. It sold in early January for $540K but the realtor’s ad is still up on Zillow along with the recent sale price.

Something has to be culled.

 
 
Comment by Mole Man
2009-02-26 18:56:27

There are a couple of potential issues there, but I’m pretty sure what happens is that the way Zestimates get recalculated over time tends to take recent sales into account only thirty days after the fact. Then sales that are outside the norm tend to be averaged out after another thirty days. The first thing you see is this awkward pause, then there is a big swing, and then it goes back to where it was with the projection history showing the odd bump. Zillow sure could use improvement, but should probably be forgiven for not being ready for a market meltdown.

 
Comment by Houston Observer
2009-02-26 20:38:43

There has always been something wrong with Zillow. I have not found it to be anything near accurate for my area at any time in the past 4 years.

 
 
Comment by ATE-UP
2009-02-26 18:18:15

Polly and Blano…Classic Exchange.

 
Comment by ATE-UP
2009-02-26 18:26:06

I am not sure my previous got posted, so I will repeat it…

“Polly and Blano, Classic Exchange”.

 
Comment by Happy Renter in Vancouver
2009-02-26 21:07:24

Bob Rennie is the biggest condo pimp in Vancouver… He’s partnered up with some shady developpers to flog 500 square feet rat boxes in the sky…

He is famous for saying downtown Vancouver’s downtown condos would sell for C$ 2010/square foot by 2010… What a tool…

 
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