The Housing Bubble

I know, NSO called me out yesterday about “playing favorites” with minorites…

which brought me to a wtf moment.

But then I realized I actually do play favorites with minorities. I do tend to be really happy when I’m around my AA and Latina cousins, so it could be said that I favor them.

+1 for intent
-1 for style

Well, I’ll work on my de-escalation skills (I should study Oly’s posts), but the alternative is we could all just be completely non-confrontational while people who post BS get the same credibility as those of us who spend a lot of time trying to verify the facts that we choose to post.

But given the political nature of many posts, I see nothing wrong with holding supposed quotes, figures and sources to a higher standard than opinions. Do you?

As I said, NSO, I see no issue with calling people out and asking them to back up claims…I think that’s healthy. I’m not arguing that anyone should be given a free ride.

There are, however, more civil ways of doing it than I have observed the past couple of days. For example you could say “do you have a source for that quote?” rather than “if you don’t provide a source, you made it up”. One shows deference and respect. The other….not so much…

I very much appreciate NoSingle’s posts. I don’t think he’s getting too harsh. I would term his style as ‘vigorous and involved’.
It seems to me he is quite respectful. For example, he has never referred in every other sentence to what iggerant ‘dopes’ we all are. (And you all know who I mean).

I mean, if we all got non-confrontational and dainty-like in order to not ruffle any feathers, jeeze, man, boooorrrrinnng…may as well start crocheting doilies and discussing how to make the best tuna casserole.

Well thanks Oly, the feeling is mutual.

In any case, I don’t think the issue is whether or not a particular poster is liked or not…I’m certainly not striving to be universally liked. The issue is what are the rules of engagement here in the Wild West. I recall Ben once posted that as long as people kept away from foul language and didn’t spam the forum with commercial interests, etc. that we should just let ‘er rip, and he’s the ultimate authority here.

However, out of respect for my fellow bloggers and for a more cushion-y easy listening experience, I will try harder to keep a more friendly tone, whenever possible.

‘…may as well start crocheting doilies and discussing how to make the best tuna casserole.’

Not that there’s anything wrong with those fascinating subjects. Why, the cornflake vs. breadcrumb topping is totally important and the merits of each deserve a lot of heated discussion and probably some insult flinging as well. Almost as important as making scalloped potatoes. Ahhh…my gran used to make wonderful scalloped potatoes. We called them ‘Funeral Potatoes’ cause she always made them to bring for a funeral. Then later she’d bring by the leftovers, if there were any. They didn’t go too far, with 8 kids, but still. Deeeeelicious. We just couldn’t wait for someone to die.

(We didn’t get any at her funeral, which was too bad, and caused some grumbling, but I mean, we could hardly express our displeasure effectively.)

I make quite delicious Funeral Potatoes myself nowadays, and I don’t even require that there be a death first.

The best tuna casserole is the one not made. I’m a touch hung-over and you’re killing me here.

Talked (and drank) a lot with that friend of mine with Citi. Didn’t make a big deal out of being 40% his boss. He says that they keep wanting him to call the bottom and cheerlead, but he won’t do it. He fired 20 of 150 last Friday and is re-assessing his own food, guns and ammo situation.

“Jets will bomb in 30 seconds. Get your people back and
heads down. This is gonna be a big one.”

MrBubble

+1, drumminj. Have you notice that Hoz does not post anymore?

“Your health care is not my problem.”

Unless it’s something contagious, then it’s everyone’s problem…..

exactly.

“then it’s everyone’s problem…..”

Nope. Nada. Never. I refuse.

I don’t expect you to cover mine, and I sure ain’t gonna cover yours (or anyone else’s) through my taxes or any other method of confiscation.

Typhoid Mary ring a bell? Spanish Flu? Plague? How about the new strain of incurable Tb?

Health care is everyone’s problem and is central to a cohesive and functioning society.

You’re confusing public health with universal healthcare.

Not that there isn’t a connection.

“Health care is everyone’s problem and is central to a cohesive and functioning society.”

I univerally disagree.

‘Tis better that a diseased street bum die on the street than a productive individual’s productivity eternally stymied.

Which is more valuable to society - an diseased, drug-addled leech or a productive individual?

Which type is more costly to society? Which is more likely to ensure a “cohesive and functioning society?”

Wow. Pretty black-and-white, no?

What makes you think that only drug-addled “leeches” get diseases? What makes you think “productive” people will always remain healthy?

In a country as rich in resources as ours, I do believe healthcare is a right. Not just because it’s the humane thing to do, but because a diseased and sick society cannot be productive.

No less black and white than those who pine for “universal healthcare for everyone!”

That’s not black and white?

fair enough…i get a lot of my posts eaten too.

drumminj/No Single One,

Right, and you can post links until you’re blue in the face but if people recognize the source from the link and then conveniently neglect to read it..?

The notion that Tea Parties are the handiwork of “ultra right think tanks” and funded by hardliner old money was roundly and very sensibly debunked yesterday.

Firstly, the chronology makes no sense. The TP’s were a grass roots movement that took hold a full 3 days -prior- to Santelli’s rant.

Secondly the gal in Seattle had never even attended… a demonstration previously ( let alone organize one? )

Thirdly if they had access to being “well funded” why were all the signs home made? ( Unlike a LOT of LW demonstrations w/ pre-printed mass produced signs? ) The more I read the more it was obvious the Playboy article was just so much hooey.

“Christopher Cox will turn out to be to the SEC what “Brownie” was to FEMA.”

The difference is that Cox knew what he was doing and what he was doing was intentional. In Cox, GWB appointed the fox to guard the hen house.

Good point, VTD. One question, though. How many lives will be ruined before Wall Street realizes they have to really self-regulate?

As an example, consider real estate and Realtors (how do you guys get that little tm mark in the text?). They self-regulate. And they have self-regulated for decades. How’s that worked out for us?

IAT

Self regulation happens once people realize that no one else will look out for them. The problem is our culture of “trusting authority” which is engrained by government schools. People are taught to be naive and rely on *someone else* to protect them from fraudsters.

In my opinion, regulation can only serve to remove responsibility from the masses and place it in the hands of a few. The few are easily bought out and cannot compete with the amount of information available to the masses. As a result, government regulation leads to corruption and a false sense of security.

“As a result, government regulation leads to corruption and a false sense of security.”

Doubleplus good comrade!

Self regulation doesn’t exist with government guarantees such as FDIC and the SEC. Remove these two crutches and self regulation will spring up because otherwise people will lose their capital to frauds. With FDIC and SEC there is no need to “self regulate” because the government has your back and you cannot go to jail if you “play by the rules”.

This is pure fantasy. Can you point to one example of a vibrant economy where there are no cops, no enforcers, and no gurantee’s that a bank won’t just take your cash.

What happens in this system is people don’t invest at all. When there are no rules and no referee
people take what’s left of their money and go home. Why would you invest when at any minute management, even one with a long trackrecord, can decide to cash out and take your money. In this system people would plug all their money into cars, houses, food, goats, gold, guns ect. They wouldn’t loan to anyone. Then criminals knowing that everyone keeps their financial wealth at home would ramp up the home invasion business.

Remove these two crutches and self regulation will spring up because otherwise people will lose their capital to frauds. Nope. People have been losing their capital to frauds for centuries before that. Shortly before those 2 crutches were really fashioned, most of the country’s banks were closed & the remainder put on holiday by presidential decree to maintain civil order.

As has already been noted by many financial experts, his “reports” that showed consistent returns in the face of any market variation was evidence in itself that he was not making real investments.

‘The above should not be misconstrued to mean I have personal knowledge.’

Oh, yeah, suuuure ya don’t.

Oh, hey! Have you ever seen ‘Reefer Madness’? It’s a cautionary little flick on the terrifying dangers of marijooowanna. Boy, it’s funny!

Pot laws are going to whittle away to nothing in the next few years. I suspect its our countries third largest manufacturing base, behind homebuilding and automaking, and we can all see where those industries are leading! The farms & labs, storefront space, idled workforce, and commercial demand is all there and waiting for the signal. “Are you listening, President Obama!?”

In some states (Virginia for one) farmers were required to grow it by law: hemp was needed for making rope and ship canvas (a word derived from cannabis!) and could even pay their taxes with it. It was George Washington’s primary crop at Mount Vernon, and what Jefferson wrote on while drafting the Declaration of Independence. –I meant he wrote on paper made from hemp, not that he wrote it while “on” weed… but then again a lot of right-brain thinking went into that project…

A quick google search of “why is marijuana illegal” shows all the fear-mongering and racism that led to its criminalization.

But rest assured cynicalgal, I am not one of those people who would EVER carry on like that…

…in full view of his neighbors…

WHY does Madoff get to keep his $62 million?

Didn’t he make that $ off of those he bilked?

Polly,
“The whole not throwing stones things is a little harder to swallow if he is referring to the other firms.”
__

That was exactly what he was referring to.
Here’s all of it with his answer:

“Who else figured this out besides you?” Kroft asked.

“I would say that hundreds of people suspected something was amiss with the Madoff operation. If you look at who the victims were not, you’ll notice that the major firms on Wall Street had no money with Mr. Madoff,” Markopolos said.

“I’m quoting from the letter to the Securities and Exchange Commission, red flag number 20. ‘Madoff is suspected of being a fraud by some of the world’s largest, most sophisticated financial services firms.’ And then you list some of the firms,” Kroft said. “The biggest firms on Wall Street. And conversations with people high up in those firms.”

“That is correct. And the SEC ignored that,” Markopolos said. “All the SEC had to do was pick up the phone. They never did.”

“If you had executives at the biggest investment houses on Wall Street that knew something was wrong, why do you think they didn’t go to the SEC?” Kroft asked.

“Because people in glass houses don’t throw stones. And self regulation on Wall Street doesn’t work,” Markopolos said.

Polly posted:

“But there are a few easier explanations. One is that the higher ups in the SEC knew about this and told people to ignore it.”

I think it’s fairly obvious that’s what’s going on. The reason Madoff isn’t in jail is because he has connections, and he knows too much. There are probably A LOT of people quaking in their boots right now, afraid he’s going to sing. The PTB (judges, lawyers, pols, execs) are probably trying to figure out a way to make this whole thing go away without a public outcry. This guy had help.

Who did Markopolos think the SEC had to call? Madoff? The person who wrote the letter? It isn’t clear in the transcript, though it may have been easier to figure out if you were listening to the interview.

Muir,

Like everyone else, I find myself wondering where Madoff gets off like he actually has a bargaining chip to begin with?

… Self Regulation can and HAS worked for years. I think (1) example is the MSRB. Municipal Securities Regulatory Board. There have been only a handful of defaults over the years and the commissions are highly regulated. It also has always existed for “the least of our investors” by instituting the “9 Bond Rule” ( for smaller investor orders )

The problem comes when NON regulated mf’s come in and exploit your un-pee’d in pool like the HF’s did last spring!

Polly,
Yes, the interview is better and is on 60 minutes website.
However, it’s pretty clear.

“Madoff is suspected of being a fraud by some of the world’s largest, most sophisticated financial services firms.’ And then you list some of the firms,” Kroft said. “The biggest firms on Wall Street. And conversations with people high up in those firms.”
____

Translation: Wall Street knew.

But who was the SEC supposed to call? Wall Street? To ask about Madoff? Just call up GS and ask if Madoff is dirty and if they can prove it?

The thing is, Markopolos continued to report this and he was continually ignored. Something stinks!

Yep, something stinks with this big time. It’s either an us vs them thing where “us” is the investment class and “them” is the investor class. Or it’s - tin foil hat moment - part of an agenda to transfer wealth. - tin foil hat off -

I kind of feel that there is some stratification going on between investors and the “professionals” those investors rely on for advice and guidance. And there is a hierarchy amongst the professional investment class where the lowly brokers pay homage to the higher ups by blindly accepting their “guidance” and passing it on to their clients. As an example how many times was it forecast on this blog that the equities market would go bear as a direct result of the housing bubble and subsequent derivatives folly? And how many times were we told by brokers not to worry about the markets, that everything was ok, that the housing loan defaults issues were contained? Plenty I’ll bet. These brokers were only mimicking the words of their leaders. Heck we heard Bernancke tell us the housing loan mess was contained to sub-prime.

My point is that the few at the top made the calls and the minions blindly followed without engaging in much observation, rational thought or analysis. Anyone who did observe, ponder and put their mind to this issue saw it for what it was, a house of cards.

How does this relate to Madoff and the SEC? I believe that Madoff was held in esteem by the investment community below tier 1 and that included the SEC who relied on the top tier for direction rather than engaging in active observation, investigation, and analysis. I believe that the top eschelons of the investment community did not expose Madoff because it would have shown the light on all of the questionable decisions made by the street and heaven forbid any light would come there. In this I agree with previous posters. Madoff is being treated with kid gloves so he will not expose the rest. We have yet to be fully informed of the depth and breadth of this debacle. They are serving it to us in small slices over time to avoid outright revolt and allow for the possibility that they can find a way to monetize their way out of this mess. But the market as a whole is seeing through it and is trying to find the course through it by correcting.

When we allow those who are part of the problem to manage the problem we set ourselves up for abuse at their hands. It is natural that they will be loyal to their fellows over us lowly investors and citizens. We don’t even go to their cocktail parties.

Testify! (Except for the ‘not smoking anything’ and the ‘asthma’ part)

* inhales deeply *

GB,

God love you sir! I can’t stand here and say: “Problem Solved” ( cause it ain’t ) but we’re at a point where we have to pick our fights.

“…..profit out of the hands of the criminals……”

And put it in the hands of the government? Just what we need……..Mexican Drug Lords spending billions to influence US drug legislation.

well at least there will be fewer beheadings?

Obviously you know nothing about marijuana, X-GS. Unlike other drugs, it is absolutely SIMPLE to grow. There’s a reason it’s called “weed”. Once legal, the price would plummet. The bad guys wouldn’t be focusing on marijuana cultivation.

And you think Mexican drug lords aren’t currently spending money influencing U.S. drug legislation?

IAT

All I know is that my job as a crewchief/foreman got a lot easier when the FAA mandated drug testing for Part 145 repair stations, starting back in the early 90’s. The biggest pains in the a$$ we had in the shop (lots of absences for every reason under the sun, screwing stuff up, dipshitz in general) magically started losing their certificates and disappeared from the shop, when they started testing positive.

You can even use my family as as test of my theory….(all over age of 35)……

Pick out the doper:
-IT Manager for major telecom
-Federal Law Enforcement Agent
-Corporate Aviation Maintenance Manager (still)
-Schoolteacher
-No steady employment. Changes jobs every six month for past 20 years-currently sells low-end jewelry in mall.

Of course that’s my experience….yours may differ.

“……know nothing about marijuana……”

My original post on this was eaten/removed.

My brother is an expert cultivator for going on 20 years now. Too bad he didn’t spend the time he used to become a marijuana farmer to get training/education in something more useful to himself and society.

My personal experience has been more with dealing with the “effects”…… But since I don’t (and have never) used marijuana, or anything else, I evidently don’t have a vote, when it comes to drug policy.

I know plenty of marijuana smokers (everyone?) who all hold similar positions to those posted. They went somewhere with their lives.

Kissing can reduce stress.

And it can lead to further destressing activities…

I thin Spearmint_tea is taxme, and we just found out he’s a she.

“What does that [Monicagate] have to do with anything?”

Nothing whatsoever. Everybody knows that the personal conduct and honesty of the President have nothing at all to do with the quality of leadership in the country, and definitely do not set the tone for the ethics of the country or its cultural, economic or business environments.

At least, everybody knew that in the 90’s. The canned answer to every criticism of Clinton’s disgusting and duplicitous behavior was, the stock market’s up, the economy’s fine, so you must just be a right-wing partisan in the pockets of the tobacco companies.

Now that the economy isn’t fine, and the stock market isn’t up, and is in fact back to the levels of Clinton’s FIRST term, we may have to revisit these assumptions.

And right now, the biggest personal Obama scandal relates to the fact that his wife has upper arms that she isn’t afraid to show in public.

samk,

Also notice how “rigid” and mono-dimensional they performed in that era? Truly classic.

wolfgirl,

In my mind the ultimate version of House of the Rising Sun was done by Dick Dale, The King of the Surf Guitar. That take will ‘really’ blow her mind!

I’ll pass that along. She has a wide range of musical taste.

“Also notice how “rigid” and mono-dimensional they performed in that era? ”

Yes! They didn’t really seem to come to life until after the song when Keith had thrashed his kit and Pete had trashed his guitar and was reaching for the host’s.

I wonder if that performance was really the cause of Pete’s hearing loss. If so I wonder how angry he was with Keith.

samk,

Unlike a lot of listeners (that are regularly mistaken for “boomers”) I’ll not bore you w/ “There’s no music after 196_ ‘worth’ listening to!” There IS, and plenty of it.

It’s just that I’m a true purist. I tend to view blues & rock in an almost biblical context. If you don’t filter out the pulp and fluff knock-off’s, you’re wasting valuable time! I’m just saying, it’s rare indeed that someone breathlessly wants to share a “new band” with me that I find there’s anything to get enthused about? From a purist standpoint.

“I wonder if that performance was really the cause of Pete’s hearing loss.”

Don’t know if it was that particular performance, but IIRC that was how he lost his hearing.

Man, how cool. Great concert for you!

I’m pretty sure that Asian banks, and Chinese ones in particular, have not had a problem with finding capital backing…considering they’ve provided a lot of it to the US by purchasing our treasuries.

But I’ve not found any articles suggesting that AIG has been a significant hedger or risk in Asia and the Middle East, and I’ve spent a lot of time looking. It seems AIG’s Asian subsidiaries have mainly engaged in more traditional insurance activities, which have actually been quite profitable.

Yeah the problems were at the parent company, but if BoC, CITC, and the big Japanese banks weren’t users of AIG Financial Products in amounts that would be difficult, if not ruinous if AIG it’s currently supported western counterparties failed, I’d be shocked. They still have CDS on just over a $300 billion notional on various corporate, mortgage, and CDO paper. Only about $230 billion of that is Europe. From their latest 10-K (the good stuff starts on page 129). $60 billion won’t kill the rest of the world, but $60 billion and the failure of the major European banks would get most of it.

Remember AIG FP doesn’t have to directly have written the CDS, just enough for the Asian/Middle Eastern bank counterparties fail. Unfortunately for US taxpayers, AIG become the keystone to the whole banking industry with almost no capital.

I think of it like a big ring of giant dominos and AIG is the lead domino, the invisible hand flicked it and the government is doing everything it can to keep AIG from toppling into the rest of the pile. If they fail we get massive deflation (currency might be the only money out there), if they succeed it’s probably high inflation.

Look at AIG’s price, haven’t they failed. I am still hoping that over time they close these financial institutions down.

Exactly. AIG (western) became the linchpin and the only way to unwind is a controlled demolition.

Oh and I was incorrect, they have a total of 2 trillion in exposure via the financial products group. Two trillion in bank assets that at minimum would require a lot more capital to support under most regulatory regimes. (insurance means that the bank can hold a very, vary modest, some might say immodest, amount of capital for those assets). No AIG and suddenly every bank counterparty has to raise their share of ~$250 billion in new assets.

Good point, polly.

My vague impression is that the majority of these swaps are 5-yr contracts.

Have we seen the exposure decrease by 2/5ths since the carnage started, system-wide, or even just at places like AIG?

I’m wondering whether they are truly winding them down, and at what rate they are also being created.

FPSS, any ideas where this data might be available?

Aren’t there two sides to every bet, hence the term swap? The only thing time gives you is a reallocation of losses.

What could possibly go wrong?

For even a fairly conservative bank to fail all it takes is the sum of all assets+guarantees to be worth less than 90c. AIG is the guarantee for enough banks that those banks failure means none of the rest have assets worth 90c on the dollar either.

“…IMO the case for propping AIG is still tenuous. I really don’t think it would be a national security issue, at least not to the extent it’s made out to be”.

Ret. Adm. Dennis Blair, Obama’s new director of national intelligence, testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee recently said that “the deepening economic crisis posed perhaps our gravest threat to stability and national security. It could trigger…a return to the “violent extremism” of the 1920s and 1930s.”

It has been pointed out on this blog before how scary it would be to have the economic crisis undercut our national influence and peacekeeping efforts. It could lead to some serious repercussions on many fronts, especially our vulnerability to terrorists. So rightly or wrongly, AIG’s failure is viewed by many in both 43 and 44’s administration as an unacceptable risk.

In some places, the value of a foreclosed house is less than 0. I heard a story on NPR today about houses in Cleveland that the bank won’t complete the foreclosure on, leaving the FB, whose name is on the deed, on the hook for city fines.

Our neighbors in New Hampshire had to hold onto their old house in Texas for at least ten years, I forget how long exactly. The dot com bubble was in full swing when they did.

That’s because the Texas housing bubble didn’t have housing itself as a base, it had oil. The oil is what collapsed, bringing the housing down with it.

Plus that wasn’t a nationwide (worldwide actually) bubble - it truly was localized.

So I wouldn’t say it’s a memory problem so much, just that in that case people could point to a separate underlying cause. In this case they cannot.

Texas is a developer’s heaven. And while the state is based on oil, the next biggest industries (in no particular order) are farming, tech, mfg and RE.

Texas also got hit hard from the S&L catastrophe. There were of bad players from that state. “Neil Bush” ring a bell?

4X income is way to high. I wouldn’t even consider spending that much, and I’m relatively high income (which means I should be able to spend proportionately more on housing because my other expenses are pretty constant). 3X is really the outside limit. 2X is where I’d like to be when I buy.

2X is where I’d like to be when I buy.

I’m shooting for being financed at ~1x hh income. At the rate I’m saving, given another year or two before I buy or build I think I’ll easily be there. If I bought right now, I would be financing ~1.2x income.

Mike,

I know you are in the WPB/PGA vicinity and we are probably considering similar areas to buy. Do you mind if I ask, do you have any specific neighborhoods in mind and, if so, what kind of prices are you targeting in those neighborhoods?

yep. house I bought in 97- 240k, same house today, low 600’s
and it is on indian lease land.

In real dollars, I’m not sure whether rents are higher than during the GD right now. Remember that you had general price deflation during the GD which means that dropping nominal rents did not necessarily mean dropping real rents.

GVSD, where I lived for a long time, is through the roof.

As much as I like it there, I can’t do it.

A friend just bought in Media, right behind the Bowling Green station. She and husband did it just right, bought the cheapest house in the nicest neighborhood they could afford. It was a real fixer-upper. She told me that their taxes are high, but if you stay in the borough, the property taxes are reasonable.

I don’t know about Jersey being cheaper than Delco, though. A coworker has a duplex in S. Jersey and her taxes are over 4k/yr, just for the school district. (and it’s not even Haddonfield)
Maybe it’s a matter of which district you’re in.

J6P should care, because given the lax enforcement of the SEC for the past decade and the fact that so many marks were just laying around like low-hanging fruit, we’re going to find out this is only just the tip of the iceberg.

I’m already amazed at the number of low level theives who practice high yield crimes like identity theft, insurance scammers and “foreclosure prevention” against the trusting, the inexperienced, and the desperate.

Speaking of theft… got a personal tweet from a
‘gal somewhere in Africa who has an uncle who died and left her 2mill in a usa bank, and she wants to invest it into a good company’..

FLAGS Bells whistles, whoop whoop whoop. car sirens. mass hysteria…
Um, I don’t think so. I wondered if others got this type of entreaty.

Recently got several calls from telemarketers who think I just signed up for insurance. Be careful out there. I am highly suspect and on the alert for identity fraud. Got suggestions?

Joe 6 Pack doesn’t care because Madoff cheated rich folks who thought he could really deliver above market returns from his “hedge” fund. Misery loves company.

Some notable charities had invested with Madoff.

The Innocence Project was one of them, IIRC.

‘Some notable charities had invested with Madoff.’

Yeah, such as Elie Wiesel’s charity, the ‘Foundation for Humanity’. All gone.
There just aren’t enough words to express exactly how wretched and worthless Madoff was and is.

One of my favorite quotes:
‘God made man because He loves stories’.
~Elie Wiesel, ‘The Gates of the Forest’.

What bothers me is that Wall Street doesn’t seem to think it’s a problem robbing from “Main Street”, hence all the stories about “…..we all are at fault”.

But let Wall Street steal from Wall Street……..righteous indignation all around.

He’ll get a plea bargain or walk, if the trial is in New York………he’ll get a “jury of his peers”.

Some banks actually will give you an inaccurate amount (2-3 days old, or with some pending transactions not counted) but then penalize you for acting on the amount it told you you have.

It used to be if you went to the bank to use your debit card and there was not money it rejected your request without a fee.

know my bank offers the option to check what I have in my account before I withdraw any cash from the ATM

This is kind of a WTF! moment for me. At any time, there is $3-4K in my checking account. I never actually balance it, but know to within ten dollars or so how much is available and how much is already allocated to bills via online “BillPay”. As I get paid on the 15th and the 30th, if I’m short after paying all the bills for a month, I transfer some money from savings until my last pay period, then transfer it back. If I have a large purchase, it goes on the Amex and is paid in full the following month. Same goes for most of my daily expenses… all on the Amex card and paid off in full the following month.

How hard is it to keep track of your money and ensure you never pay overdraft, interest, penalties? Seriously, this is basic budgeting and cash-flow management. If you can’t get through a month without getting hit with overdraft, then you need to pick up a book on budgeting and personal finance and start saving…

To quote John Wayne: “Life is hard. It’s harder if you’re stupid”. Banks must love stupid…

Not a gator righto.
sfogal- ‘beware’. Believe half of what you see…!

Auto deposits also are taken in by banks, and your acct registers a full balance but in actuality, it isn’t counted towards YOUR balance until 1201 pm after the autodep.
Got caught in that one loophole once. Now, waiting till 2+ days after payday till I write the checks.

there can be hidden holds on your account that dont appear on your balance. use a debit card at a hotel, gas station or other merchant; there will be a preauthorization amount higher than the actual charge. this preauthorization may reduce your balance available for a few days but isnt reflected on your balance.

Millions of vacant homes can’t be wrong, either.

What about those Tent cities that are illegal but the PTB are thinking about making them legal and getting services to them, such as water/sewage(or rather away from). It might begin to be noticeable when it gets on tv more.

Oh I don’t know about that. Thousands of customer free car dealerships can’t be wrong.

It’s not by choice that customers are staying away… most customers who are going into dealerships these days can’t get financed. Many are too far upside down on their trade-in and have to bring a significant down payment to deal with the negative equity, cash that they don’t have… the credit bubble applied to auto loans as much as houses.

Also, has anyone noticed that Bankrate.com no longer shows 72 mo loans available? From what I can tell, the longest term new car loan being offered by banks is 60 months. Manufacturer’s captive finance companies may offer special financing, but the retail banks seem to have tightened considerably. Considering the average new car(import) is $28K (approx. 550/mo 60mo loan), most customers need longer term financing. How many people do you know (aside from readers on this blog) have that much cash or liquid assets available for a discretionary purchase of a depreciating asset?

As an aside, I know my financial “Achilles heel” is my love of autos. My willingness to take on any sort of debt to appease my desire for a killer ride directly correlates to my family’s current income and future employment prospects. Both are under pressure given the current economic climate. I don’t see that new or slightly used Infiniti G37x Coupe in my near future…

“Achilles heal”

I used to be able to afford new cars, but the prices increased a lot faster than my income. Haven’t bought anything new since 2001. I refuse to finance a car for more than 3-4 years.

The good news is that Craigslist, Autotrader, and Ebay let you find that cool ride that’s priced right. Buy a cheapo/beater/economy car for bad weather days, and when you are working on the “killer ride”. (the killer ride is a LOT CHEAPER to fix when you can let it sit for a week or two

Autotrader’s solid. I’m probably on that site a couple of times a month browsing used inventory. I like new, but I hate that new car depreciation…

With the decline in new sales and people holding onto their cars longer to save money, at some point relatively low mileage late model used cars will be in short supply.

Good example of a market self correcting from an extreme when left free of government intervention…

‘It sounds bad, but I’m guessing that this “extend life at all costs” mindset would go away, if the advocates had to pay for it out of their own pocket.’

NO doubt of it. My great-gran Ida Mae lived to be 98, and for the last 7-8 years her mind was pretty much gone. Brief flashes of lucidity, during which she would ask ‘May I please die?’ Nope. Her body just kept ticking along—with the aid of a whooooole bunch of costly remedies and interventions, paid for by Medicare. My gran—this is the gran I just barely posted about up the thread, made super good Funeral Potatoes—tried to end all this, several times, as soon as great-grans’ mind started to go, I mean, who wants to see their mom drooling down one side of their chin and crying and asking to please die? She had to have her hands strapped down or else she’d get confused and laboriously unwind all the gauze that was holding the IV needles in her arms, and then they’d have to jab her fulla holes trying to find the vein again; they reamed out her esphophagus, boy, that was just lots of fun…Jeebus! It was horrible!
The doctors at the care center refused to end treatment. There was no way to compell them to let her go meet Jeebus, as she’d never made a living will or specified her end of life treatment. Also, this was Utarr, where they are fundamentalisty, you know: ‘every life is sacred even if it’s drooling down its chin’ sort of attitude.
I don’t know how much her care cost taxpayers, and I don’t want to know, because it’d seriously pis*s me off—a whole bunch of money wasted keeping a mindless, suffering poor old lady alive.

Anyway, everyone in my family, including me, has a living will, and has distributed copies to each other.
Aller you HBBers should make sure you have one, too.

Amen Olygal - the idea of ending up like your grandmother fills me with terror.
So sorry to hear about the sad end to a wonderful person.

Just because medicine can do something, doesn’t mean that it should in all cases.

Both myself and the husband have living wills, and strict DNR instructions.

If the only way to keep me alive is to have me in an ICU with tubes up every orifice, and my mind gone - and with no ‘good’ outcome (ie I get to walk or wheel myself out of there in a few months time), then I’d rather go out on a high.

Quality over quantity, for me anyhow, every damn time.

When my mother was dignoised with 3 forms of cancer and severe heart problems on top of diabetes, my father asked how I felt about her not having a pacemaker installed since the doctors said that at best it would only give her a couple of months extra. I told him that it was their choice but that I so no sene in putting her through surgery that really would do so little good. He had in the past two years watched my MIL and BIL die slow, expenive deaths. My mother had told me that she didn’t want to go through that. She didn’t have the surgery and died peacefully 5 weeks later.

My father was put on a pacemaker after his last heart attack, which worked good enough to keep him alive for 4-5 years, while his mind (and control of his body functions) rapidly descended into Alzheimer’s Hell. I have since decided it is much better to punch out a little too early, than a little too late.

Especially when you consider that my estate (such as it is) might mean the difference between my kids/grandkids getting a leg up in the future.

I’d much rather leave something to the kids, than have it eaten up by the hospitals and doctors trying to keep me alive a few weeks longer.

In fact, why can we not be given this option, in the event of serious/terminal disease:

-Have the Hospital/doctor give an QUOTE for the cost of treatment, and the anticipated outcome/best guess scenario for how much time you have left, or

-Be given the option of half that amount in cash, and just pump me full of morphine until I kick.

A win-win deal:
-The patient/insurance saves money, because they now have a lower cost “option”, while the health care provider has an incentive to reduce costs to “retain customers”.

-A patient can do an actual cost-benefit analysis. If the options are: party like it’s 1999 for three months or suffer thru treatment to extend your life by six months, I’d be inclined to “Paaaaaaaaar-ty”……I don’t mind saving the insurance company some money, if there is something in it for me.

No chances for abuse there. No doctor will ever be bribed to understate the value of treatment by an insurance company that wants to cut costs. No relative will ever encourage a doctor to emphasize the pain (”Mom is very sensitive to pain, doctor, and we so do not want to see her in pain.”) so they can get their grubby little hands on the estate. No, no chances for abuse there.

Move along, nothing to see there.

IAT

Have the Hospital/doctor give an QUOTE for the cost of treatment Dream on. My local hospitals will not even divulge the costs to a paying customer of simple blood tests (e.g. CBC, chem profile) done hundreds of thousands of times nationwide daily. The paper you sign to consent to testing also promises you will pay whatever the facility charges.

Yes, I have generally found this to be true at urgent care clinics and I’ve usually had good experiences with them, but the one here in gnv is an asshat.

Medical degree from late 70’s, nasty attitude, doesn’t need to do any better because the city steers tons of business his way.

Nationalizing health care doesn’t make it free, it just shifts the costs to taxpayers and gives power over what care you get, and which doctor you get it from, to the government. I have heard (unconfirmed) that in England the national health insurance will not pay for macular degeneration medication until at least one eye has gone blind. I personally know someone in Canada who is on a months’ long waiting list to be treated for a painful orthopedic problem…

If Canadian medicine is so great and the wait lists aren’t true, why did that female Canadian politician (an equivalent to a US senator) come here for breast cancer treatment (this was about a year ago, in the news)?

I meant, gives power to the government over what care you get. Does anyone wonder why the Obama administration wants all our medical records stored electronically? Could it be that the game plan is to have bureaucrats intimidate doctors who recommend certain treatments that they deem unecessary or expensive?

Medical is a giant cash cow like defense. Lots of $1000 screwdrivers. Lots of paying twice for research. Lots of outright fraud.

There may be some truth to what you are saying, but you go into false dichotomy land when you start taking the stated offers of the medical-industrial complex at face value.

There is NO reason why Americans pay MORE per capita to have LOWER life expectancies!

Also, the child with leukemia did nothing to cause her condition, while the adult with advanced diabetes type II needing an amputation probably did a lot to cause his condition. Some are starting to say that we shouldn’t have to pay for people’s lifestyle choices. So, there may be a different ethical rubric coming into play other than “he with the most cash wins”.

You can’t magically make a procedure (like bone marrow transplants) cost $5 just because the average person can’t afford to pay more.

Yes, but then you’re on the slippery slope of ‘medicine-by-income’.
Do you let people who need a bone marrow transplant, but can’t afford one, die due to the lack of money?

Personally, I don’t know the answer to that one.

I guess the questions that needs to be asked is
“do I want to live in a country where people die because they can’t afford medicine?’
“Is it OK to allow people to go bankrupt for medical expenses?
And - if its ok, who gets to choose who gets healthcare and who doesn’t?
“What’s the cut off line?”

Not tut-tutting or trying to guilt trip anyone - but if you (as a country) consider healthcare as a commodity and not a right to all citizens, then you have to make your collective mind up as to who is worthy and who is unqualified - and stand by your decision.

And not a gator hit the nail on the head - maybe some of the ire we’re feeling should be directed towards Big Pharma and the Healthcare Insurers. The situation, and the amount of influence they have, is insane and obscene.

After all, this is probably the only country in the developed world where Big Pharma spends millions on TV ads to get patients to recommend their products to their doctors.

I don’t dispute there are mark ups, gator. I think you’re putting words in my mouth.

I’m not making any kind of comparative statement that you seem to be attacking regarding paying for someone with diabetes vs a kid with leukemia. All I am saying is that just because the kid did nothing to deserve it doesn’t mean that we the taxpayers are obligated to pay for her care.

The assumption I take issue with is that the average person, or everyone, *DESERVES* and is *ENTITLED TO* care, regardless of the true cost of services. Someone has to pay those costs. I realize this is a core philosophical issue, but no one is entitled to the fruits of my labor, nor am I entitled to anyone else’s. Sure, if I choose to contribute to someone’s expenses, that’s one thing. As VTDan points out repeatedly, taxes aren’t optional, in any way, shape, or form. They are taken by threat of force.

Yes, healthcare is expensive in the US. I don’t claim to be incredibly informed on the true costs, mark ups, etc. I do know that it’s a bit of a false argument to cite the costs of prescription drugs and procedures elsewhere, etc. Sure, they’re cheaper elsewhere. But without the extra income/profit coming from patients in the US, would the same drugs be developed? Would certain new procedures be invented/tried out? I’m not making an assertion here, I’m just stating that it’s not as clear-cut as people generally make it out to be.

“Nationalizing health care doesn’t make it free, it just shifts the costs to taxpayers and gives power over what care you get, ”

In case you haven’t noticed, bureaucrats already have power/control over what care you get.

Insurance companies bureaucrats or government bureaucrats, the difference is small.

IMHO the best system might be a hybrid: broad socialized preventive/general/catastrophic care, and privatized pay-as-you-go for most elective procedures. Everyone has a safety net, and government doesn’t spend a boat-load on things that are questionable.

drumminj posted:

“All I am saying is that just because the kid did nothing to deserve it doesn’t mean that we the taxpayers are obligated to pay for her care.”

I beg to differ with you. This is the sort of attitude which is very poor for the welfare of society in general. Just as our taxes go to educating and protecting our citizens, they should also go towards maintaining the health of the population, and caring for the sick among us- especially the less fortunate children. “Deserve’s got nothing to do with it.”

“I do know that it’s a bit of a false argument to cite the costs of prescription drugs and procedures elsewhere, etc. Sure, they’re cheaper elsewhere. But without the extra income/profit coming from patients in the US, would the same drugs be developed? Would certain new procedures be invented/tried out?”

So, we as American taxpayers should subsidize the rest of the worlds meds, simply because the drug companies developed them on our soil? What a bunch of horse cr@p that is. In many instances, one can buy the same exact same brand medication across the border in Canada for 1/3 of the price. If anything, our medication should be cheaper than elsewhere- a benefit of something homegrown.

Well said GB.
For me it comes down to this. How can we call ourselves a civilized country, when our citizens can die of easily treatable diseases due to lack of medical insurance?
(Or have stress kill them due to their onerous medical bills).

What if the person who wants/needs incredibly expensive medical treatments happens to be in jail? I recall reading about some guy, he actively harmed people, none a’ that ‘Oh, I just had some marijoowanna’ nonsense, a really truly utter and complete wretch, who needed a new liver or a new heart or something big-time like that, with long term anti-rejection therapy even after the huge initial surgery cost, and who sued the state penal system in order to get it, on the taxpayer dime. I think it was in CA?
I can’t remember if he won. I do remember it made me mad to read about it.

What about them?

“What about them?”

Are you asking me? I am not in favor of our prisoners getting better care than the average uninsured hard working person, which is the situation we have right now. The prison system in this country is so effed up I don’t even know where to start. But, obviously inmates need to have access to some health care, though it should be limited. There are prices to be paid by those incarcerated, wrongly or otherwise. Prison is an ugly thing.

I remember that story too. I think it was a heart.

“it seems the T exists to allow the middle class to live in the ‘burbs but still work in the city.”

Ditto for the Interstate Highway System. Is it any coincidence that immediately after construction began on the IHS, the downtowns of most major cities went into a steep and apparently irreversible decline?

“rises into my mind, complete and majestic”

Please tell me that you meant that!

BTW — I asked you for advice on Fritz Lang last week on your Metropolis post. It was late, so you may have missed it. I’ve only seen M. What else?

MrBubble

why drag Jeebus into this?

So Osama Obama didn’t “keep quiet” about anything during the election?? Spare me.

Plus, that dividend didn’t exactly start when Palin became governor; we all know that’s been a part of Alaska since who knows when. However, if she actually tried to stop it, you all up there would be howling louder than a pack of starving wolves.

Find something a little more relevant to whine about.

Oh, Blano.

If people woulda been howling like a pack of wolves, they woulda been shot from a helicopter. Google it.

Big V –

I sense that you are… exasperated with the sound of that same drum being banged?

Bummed that I couldn’t make the Vegas trip. Any desire for an SFBay get-together in a month or two?

Well, ObiWan didn’t make attacking “socialism” a cornerstone of his campaign after benefiting from it his whole life without complaint.

Apples and oranges.

Mr. Bubble:

Yes, maybe next month. I should start thinking about it. Only a few peeps came to the last one, probably because it was raining and the exit was kinda funny trying to find the place. The waitress got mad because only 2 of us ate anything. Well, the waitresses at that particuluar place are usually mad come to think of it, so maybe she was actually really happy.

Will you come to this one if I invite you? I think I still have your e-dress. E-mail me to make sure.

-V

I don’t have your email. Two computer crashes have left me high and dry. But if I say that I’ll be there, I’ll be there (especially if there is booze involved)!

I would love it if the place were biking accessible, but I’m a hardly soul. I’m in PA during the day and SF at night if that can work.

MrBubble

hardly = hardy (on a good day)