There Seems To Be No End To The Speculation
Some reports on where the speculators are. “A flurry of high-end sales caused home prices in the Park Cities to jump 44 percent in the first quarter. Other areas of North Texas weren’t so lucky in the first quarter. Sales declined in more than half of the neighborhoods surveyed in The Dallas Morning News report on pre-owned single-family homes.”
“In the first quarter, 167 homes sold for $1 million or more in North Texas, an increase of 27 percent from the same period last year. With such booming demand for high-dollar mansions, real estate agents say they aren’t surprised to see California-style price hikes in the Park Cities. ‘We’ve seen some huge multimillion-dollar sales’ there, said real estate agent Bettie Abio. ‘There seems to be no end to the appreciation.’”
“(Broker) Robbie Briggs said the number of high-price speculative and custom homes being built in the Park Cities has also increased. At the end of March, there were 42,630 homes for sale in North Texas, virtually unchanged from a year ago.”
“The number of new housing starts in the first quarter of 2006 spiked dramatically over the same period last year. In the quarter ended March 31, 2006, builders put down 4,579 new single-family home starts in the Austin area, a 48 percent increase over the same time last year. That brought the annual new home start rate to almost 17,000 homes, a 29 percent increase over the annual start rate a year ago and a new record for the Austin market.”
“Eldon Rude says an influx of out-of-state families moving to Austin and a tight resale home supply have put an increased demand on the local new home market. ‘Couple that dynamic with increasing interest from out-of-state investors looking to move their capital from slowing coastal markets, and what we see is strong competition for available land,’ Rude says.”
“Utah’s strong population and employment growth is fueling a home-buying bonanza along the Wasatch Front, driving up home sales and selling prices. Homes are being bought days and sometimes hours after they hit the market. ‘The good news is that we’re seeing healthy increases in sales and prices but not unrealistic increases that could lead to a housing ‘bubble’ like they did in other states,’ said Deborah Sjoblom of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors.”
“Realtor Marilyn Briggs said buyers are making full-price or more than full-price offers only to see someone else get the home they want. Investors also are pushing sales and prices higher, Briggs said. Out-of-state investors are snapping up properties along the Wasatch Front, especially in the Salt Lake City area, either for rentals or to fix up and resell at a profit.”
“‘There are investors that are buying homes in the Salt Lake area sight unseen,’ Briggs said. ‘They are telling their Realtor to just go ahead and make an offer.’”
From the Austin article:
‘builders have been struggling to develop enough finished lots, with the lot supply dropping to less than 18 months in the first quarter of 2006. During the same time last year, the lot supply was two years.’
These builders will never run out of cheap dirt to sell to out of towners, in Austin, Houston, San Antonio or Dallas. And even with the speculation, there is no shortage:
‘In the 42 Dallas-area and mid-cities neighborhoods that The Dallas Morning News tracks, 24,118 homes were on the market, 263 fewer than a year ago.’
There is so much land in Texas that if you divided the state into equal one acre lots, you could give one to each of the 6.5 billion humans on this planet. It sounded incredible when I first heard it, but its true.
So if you think you can buy up a ton of real estate in Texas, then tell buyers “we’re not making any more land…” Well, good luck with that.
Texas area = 268581 sq miles = 171 891 840 acres
Not even enough for everyone in the US to have an acre in Texas
Thanks for doing a bit of math. The stat I’ve always heard is, “An acre plot for each family in America,” which sounds much more plausible. While Texas is big, it’s not the only “sparse” state. In fact, there are 22 states with a lower population density than TX, such as: Kansas, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Montana, Nevada, and so on. Anyone who says, “We’re running out of land” is either trying to sell you some, justify their position, or comes from a country like South Korea or Vatican City, where they really are running out of land!
Anyone who has taken a cross country plane flight knows just how empty this country is. So why DO we spend inordinate amounts of money to squeeze ourselves into the already developed areas?
It seems more profitable to build up than out in pricey areas.
Texas’s population per square mile based on the 2000 census and land areas, is exactly average. The following is Pop/square mile by state:
1.1 Alaska
5.1 Wyoming
6.2 Montana
9.3 North Dakota
9.9 South Dakota
15.0 New Mexico
15.6 Idaho
18.2 Nevada
22.3 Nebraska
27.2 Utah
32.9 Kansas
35.6 Oregon
41.3 Maine
41.5 Colorado
45.2 Arizona
50.3 Oklahoma
51.3 Arkansas
52.4 Iowa
60.6 Mississippi
61.8 Minnesota
65.8 Vermont
75.1 West Virginia
79.6 Texas
81.2 Missouri
87.6 Alabama
88.6 Washington
98.8 Wisconsin
101.7 Kentucky
102.6 Louisiana
133.2 South Carolina
137.8 New Hampshire
138.0 Tennessee
141.4 Georgia
165.2 North Carolina
169.5 Indiana
175.0 Michigan
178.8 Virginia
188.6 Hawaii
217.2 California
223.4 Illinois
274.0 Pennsylvania
277.3 Ohio
296.4 Florida
401.1 Delaware
401.9 New York
541.9 Maryland
702.9 Connecticut
809.8 Massachusetts
1,003.2 Rhode Island
1,134.4 New Jersey
9,316.9 District of Columbia
79.6 Grand Total
The bubble is on the move. Salt Lake City, Boise, parts of Texas, Nashville, Memphis, and Albuquerque are all being blessed by bubble money. It’s simple to explain. As affordability smacks into the limits of possibility in older bubble areas, cash flows down the hill.
yes, and again this mirrors the European experience of a few years ago - especially what’s happening with the more expensive homes.
Probably the price runup in the low-income states will be even bigger than in bubble central (CA etc.) and it might continue for a long time after RE starts going down in the first bubble states.
And because of this, the bubble keeps expanding.
By the time the prices in the low-income states have reached the absolute limit, you are going to see lots of advertisement for overseas RE investment (who knows where …), with subsidized I/O mortgages for anyone who can fog a mirror.
Intersting observation, NHZ. I’ve noticed that prices in the more affluent areas of Washington, DC, have been flat for over a year. Prices in ghetto neighborhoods have exploded upwards over the same timeframe. People are paying five to seven hundred thousand American dollars for small rowhouses in neighborhoods the tourists have never heard of, unless they’ve been warned away. Remarkable.
I don’t know if American’s have the penchant for international investing like the Europeans. For you guys, crossing a national boundary is a short car ride away. For the US, the only nations bordering us are Mexico and Canada, which kind of limits the opportunity for international investment for the vast majority of speculators. (Although there was a fair push for investing in Mexico real estate here in SoCal during the height of the bubble, although that has died down quite a bit. As it should, in part because Mexico is a poor nation and in larger part because foreigners can’t legally own land there, it has to be done through 99-year leases and whatnot.)
It is certainly not a matter of distance. EU citizens are used to far smaller travel distances than US citizens. For the current RE ‘hot areas’, you have to travel at least some 1000-2000 km from the original bubble countries, to Eastern Europe, Turkey etc.
Most EU citizens would never consider driving such a distance - they will probably buy unseen (on a tradeshow or from a catalogue) or at most visit by plane during their vacation time.
I think it is more of a cultural difference - most EU citizens are far more aware of the world outside (they have to, coming from relatively small countries).
Cash? Who got the cash…
This is all funny money bein’ thrown into the volume vortex by an increasingly desperate mortgage industry.
Don’t make no dif. Hedge funds boys are gonna collapse it all.
Please explain the comment on “hedge fund boys will collapse it all.” I think i understand but need a lesson here. Thanks
Bubbles will probably not inflate in the interior because the things that will pop the bubble on the coasts are national, like higher interest rates, tightened lending standards (exotic loans), and, most importantly, a change in people’s expectations. Right now, the national press is starting to talk about a bubble, so I kinda doubt that more bubbles will inflate.
The good news is that we’re seeing healthy increases in sales and prices but not unrealistic increases that could lead to a housing ‘bubble’ like they did in other states,’ said Deborah Sjoblom of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors.”
What an F-ing idiot.
how common is it for a house not to come in at appraisal? I’ve posted before how my neighbor went for a week to get a house in SLC where they’re moving their lovely family, and went all the way to appraisal in their process and it didn’t appraise, off by a bunch. Is this a sign of a bubble in the making or just random?
Goes to show you the lenders are getting tighter .
So true. A couple of acquaintances here in Cali are on to the Albuquerque market. They have partnered and bought 5 houses in new subdivisions there, with plans to buy more. The allure is lower negative cash flow (because of the lower level of prices compared to Cali) and perceived good appreciation potential.
It’s amazing how easily these deals can now be put together. All that’s needed is some broker and lender contacts and money for the down payments. In new subdivisions, it is often possible to negotiate for the developer to pick up all the closing costs.
I hope that the idiots doing this in SLC lose their shirts, pants, socks, unmentionables, etc. These flippers are out to ruin every city in the country. I don’t want them to do that to my beautiful hometown. And, SLC has had plenty of boom/bust periods. It is a completely different market from California. And I so want to hear about CA floppers losing everything there. They deserve that. Homes are for living in. If they want to gamble, go to Bendover (Wendover), Reno, Las Vegas, etc.
I live in Nevada. I wish they would have kept the gambling to the casino. Too many people who just want a house to live in raise a family will get hurt.
The real estate bubble isn’t creating any wealth - it’s just rearranging wealth. We are participating in a 100-year mania, and people who are reading this blog have front row seats. Most flippers (not all) are going to get wiped, and they deserve it. However, most of the middle class is going to get wiped, too, and they don’t deserve it.
It makes me sick how the flippers are ruining every reasonable
market there was in the United States . Your all right that this hurts the regular family just looking for affordable housing . Its the worst thing I have ever seen .
It is families I’m the most worried about. The sharpies will move on to the next scam, but middle class America as we knew it is going to be crushed. The coming financial pressure will cause unemployment, divorces, bankruptcies, neglect of children, and home collapses. When wealth consolidates like this, there can only be a few winners. Everyone else loses.
That is just a good primer for a little revolution here or there. Witness the agrarian revolutions in Europe, and the ongoing civil unrest in Latam. There is nothing more inflamatory than loosing ones abode, and people will fight tooth and nail.
Look out for garbage sales first, then car sales, and last, taking on renters, depressing rental prices….
ah … we nearly had a revolution in the Netherlands in 1979 thanks to rampant housing speculation.
Politicians were very afraid; tanks were driving in the streets of Amsterdam to protect wealthy speculators and the government from the angry crowd (mostly younger people who had no chance to get a home or job).
Nothing has changed (except that the RE mob got far more power and money since then and the situation is now ten times worse). Nobody seems to remember how things can get out of hand
wow, I had no idea about that…seriously, *tanks* in the streets to protect speculators?! These days in the states the rhetoric that any complaining is ‘communistic’ and
‘amounting to class warfare’ is conveniently effective for containing any significant protests.
Blame Carleton Sheets, Tommy Vu, Trump, producers of “Flip this House” and all those other promoters of “making money to live the good life with ABSOLUTELY NO MONEY DOWN!
Seriously. Why is most of our disgust directed at RE agents and lenders when these clowns lit and stoked the flames?
Pertbob: Maybe Carleton had a lead but not the others.
The TV shows are only a manifestation of the MANIA that existed, otherwise it couldn’t have become a TV show!
The culprets are our BANks and their fractional FIAT monetary system that destroys ALL real value and forces even the smallest of investors trying to shelter what little bit of money into something earning faster than they steal it with monetary devaluation.
The FEd simply does their bidding, the Govt. is in on it so they can spend at will and contract with their cronies
This movement of speculators from one market to another reminds me of a horde of locusts … moving on to one market, destroying the crops/housing market, then moving on to the next.
jeff99az—interesting anaolgy!
There is no housing bubble because it’s impossible to have housing bubbles and real estate never goes down and there’s never ever been a housing bubble so why should there be one now and everyone needs to live somewhere and look at all the immigrants coming in and they’re not making any more land and the baby boomers are all buying second homes and we have entered an entirely new valuation model and this is the ownership society and there are all kinds of innovative financing methods that help people buy houses and renting is throwing money away and people who don’t buy now will be priced out forever and real estate has always been the best investment ever so therefore there is no housing bubble. And even if there is a housing bubble which is a stupid thing to think in the first place it will pop in other places but not where MY house is because where MY house is is the absolutely PERFECT place to live and MY house will keep going up just not as fast.
Whoa! Stop the room from spinning! That run-on paragraph made me hella dizzy.
BayQT~
The only thing that is going to run on more than that sentence is all the tears that are on the way.
Hopeful that I can buy some flopper homes in SLC for pennies on the dollar. Give me a good reason to go visit family, and make money while doing so. And can actually kick a flopper on his/her A$$.
Kick some ass for me to will yu . I’m getting to the point where I hate this traveling band of greedy flippers that all seem to go to the same place to invest . Someone must be guiding them .
You know what this reminds me of? The good ole dot-com days. After the big boys like AMZN and YHOO ran, you had investors pulling money out and flocking to the second-tier players. It was like an “echo bubble.” Another dot-com parallel? When investors stopped buying “B2C” stocks because they stopped going up, then flocked to “B2B” stocks — on the assumption that even if the consumer-focused Net stocks faltered, business to business sales would do fine. Of course, ALL the stocks cratered in the end, just like these new “boom” markets will (only later than the coastal ones). Sigh…
You’re right, but this still IS the dot-com bubble. Quick thinking by Greenspan stopped the stock market from full implosion by hosing the world with liquidity and rolling the cash into real estate. That is why we didn’t have a real estate recession during the last recession. Alan then kept it rolling, even pumping up China, and now the cash is finding a home in oil, commodities, hedge funds and gold. The bubble goes on until every investment possibility has been blessed at least once. Then everything implodes because debt implodes.
Sad isn’t it? Our central bank is an absolute joke. They ONLY know how to inflate, then prick bubbles … and solve those pricked bubbles by inflating new ones elsewhere. What I loved was the Steve Leisman (SP?) interview with Janet Yellen, a Fed governor, the other day on CNBC. He said something like “Some experts say the surge in oil, gold, commodities, and other assets is the result of too-loose monetary policy. How do you respond?” She then proceeded to blame everyone but the idiotic Fed. $70+ oil? All geopolitics. $600+ gold? Fear of terrorism. The surge in commodities? Strong economic growth overseas. No wonder gold actually jumped $2 WHILE SHE WAS SPEAKING. It’s because the markets realize the Fed is either 1) intentionally pumping out way too much money to try to keep the housing bubble burst from getting too bad (and trying to hide it by deflecting attention/blame elsehwere) or 2) so stupid, it doesn’t realize that too much liquidity = major asset bubbles. Either way, it makes me want to gag. Ack.
If you’ve never read the book “Tulipmania”, you should. This is a classic symptom of financial manias - the mania starts with things that are rare and intrinsicly valuable, then devolves into lower price points, where the suckers get fleeced.
More specifically a book titled”The greatest bank robbery ever”written about the last RE fiasco in the 80’s. The book is very inexpensive (used) on Amazon.com.
On June 25, 1863… “the few who understand the system {bank loans earning interest and also serving as money } will either be so interested in its profits or so dependent on its favors that there will be NO opposition from that class (political) while, on the other hand the great body of people, mentallly incapable of comprehending…will bear its burdens without complaint”
Sent by cable from the Rothchild investment house….Quoted by Owen pg99-100…on the eve of the Lincoln Natl Bank ACT!
“Realtor Marilyn Briggs said buyers are making full-price or more than full-price offers only to see someone else get the home they want.
This false demand is totally fueled by easy speculative mortgage money. People are more than drunk at the party.
If these people where ponying up their own dough they wouldn’t
even be in the game.
I think people are now thinkin’ like the CEO’s who use bankruptcy as a business model to bail from their health and pension obligations.
Heads I win…tails I walk, I don’t a rats azz-let the bankruptcy people come after me. Gov’s gonna do a debt moratorium anyway.
Let the idiot sheeple taxpayer clean up the mess.
hehehe…$75 oil, and Philly’s out of gaz. Deja vue of the 70’s…
Google dollars for everyone!!
Google today it was UP some 39 bucks (8 miilion sahres traded)- PRE opening…on earnings…unadjusted for newly issue shares…Saw Cramer’s math
$10 (earnings) x 60 P/E = $600….sorry pal but the Sept 2ndary issuance is only 1/2 accounted for and the March issuance isn’t in there at all……….Fully diluted eanings are about $1.45 * 4 qtrs.= $5.8 (earnings) x P/E of 64 (actual) = $371……….oops. how is that for a BOOOoo- Yah Jimmy!….
Closed up only $22 after 225 million shares traded hands.
california has no housing bubble because california is special and everyone wants to live in california and texas has no housing bubble because texas is special and everyone wants to live in texas and utah has no housing bubble because utah is special and everyone wants to live in utah and new york has no housing bubble because new york is special and everyone wants to live in new york and new jersey has no housing bubble because although new jersey isn’t that special at least it’s next to new york and some of new york’s specialness rubs off on new jersey and everyone wants to live in new jersey and chicago has no housing bubble because chicago is special and the economist said chicago was cool and no one is smarter than them and now everyone will really really want to live in chicago and western nebraska has no housing bubble because well um western nebraska is at least equidistant from new york and california and that has to count for something
A perfect summation of the bull case in a chewbacca defense.
Austin
any word on Corpus Christi ?
UTAH went up in the end of 1990-92 echo boom
and hasn’t doen anything till now, not much at that
Is Washington DC special unto itself or is it special because of its proximity to NYC? Just wondering. Funny.
http://www.dcbubble.blogspot.com
washington dc is special because of all those government jobs and government only gets bigger just like housing prices but don’t let this make you think trhis means there’s a housing bubble in dc because everyone wants to live in dc
speaking of DC, another Live Q&A w/ the WashPost RE Editor Maryann Haggerty today… the first post comments on sellers lowering their asking price.
Her response:
“Maryann Haggerty: Is that a drop in price or a drop in expectations? I say prices are the amount of money that changes hands, not the amount that people hope will change hands.”
i won’t argue w/ her on “price” vs “expectation” but i do have a problem w/ her inconsistency later in the Q&A…
“Gaithersburg, Md.: Another comment on rising prices — we bought our townhouse/condo in August 2004 for $250K. A comparable unit across the street is now listed at $335K, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it sells for that amount. Needless to say, we’re glad we bought when we did.”
the EDITOR’s response:
“Maryann Haggerty: Prices up…”
Gotta love the double talk from the RE EDITOR(!) of the WashPost. Man I can’t wait to quit this area!
I’ve never figured out what the deal is with the Post and real estate. They love to sniff out dead bodies in official Washington, but are totally in bed with the real estate industry. Same goes for the New York Times. Generaly, both will facilitate the cheerleading until it the party is SO over that they have to report on it.
Um, DCBubble, who said Washingon is “special?”
When do you think that the FB sheeple will realize that they actually will have to pay back loans on a depreciating asset with REAL money. It seems that they have been thinking this is all MONOPOLY money. They all just think the house will magically appreciate 20% per year, and they can always refinance, or sell for a huge profit. We would love to hear more fucked borrower stories.
If the fed keeps the money supply inflating, it WILL be monopoly money.
of course, the house might keep appreciating at 20% per year but if the dollar keeps depreciating 30% per year, they are still f…
They won’t pay, they’ll escape through bankruptcy. Better hope you are flat broke when you BK or you will get stuck paying a portion of it back for many years.
I have always adhered to a financial philosophy of J. Paul Getty who said “A wise man never invests borrowed money in a depreciating asset” until now, I thought it only applied to cars.
Just found on Yahoo news. Symbolic of the toxic mortgages also?
Toxic Leaks Tarnish Image of Mich. Resort
PETOSKEY, Mich. - On a hillside overlooking Lake Michigan, the community of Bay Harbor promotes itself as an environmentally sensitive luxury resort.
ADVERTISEMENT
It boasts a highly rated golf course, yachting and equestrian clubs, stylish boutiques and million-dollar mansions with to-die-for views of sparkling waves and scarlet sunsets.
But nearly a decade after it was built atop the grounds of an abandoned cement factory, toxic leaks have tarnished the resort’s image. Chemicals have seeped from buried cement dust piles and into Little Traverse Bay, prompting regulators to restrict access to part of the shoreline and order an extensive cleanup.
“It’s striking — this lavish, luxurious community with this kind of fencing and signs on the beach,” said Scott Kendzierski, environmental health director for the Northwest Michigan Community Health Agency. “I’m sure it’s not what people expected when they bought into this.”
Heavy machinery, workers in protective suits, chain-link fences and posted warnings to avoid contact with the caustic liquid disturb the resort’s serene beauty.
It’s unclear when the cleanup will be completed, but CMS Energy Corp., an original investor now stuck with the tab, recently estimated the cost at $85 million.
The developers have denied misleading anyone and residents of the 550-home community disagree on how much harm has been done.
Homeowners Richard and Robin Franks of Northville, who say their yard was contaminated, filed a lawsuit contending they were not adequately informed of the danger. Their property value has plummeted and efforts to sell have gone nowhere, said their attorney, Steve Weiss.
“This was to be their dream northern Michigan home,” Weiss said.
Joe Nachtrab, who leads the Bay Harbor yacht club, said he did not recall warnings about contamination before moving to the community in 2000 but knew the resort was a former plant site.
He said that independent tests of the yacht harbor and sand beach came up clean. “I’m a happy camper,” he said.
In the mid-1990s, CMS Energy teamed with Detroit-area developer David V. Johnson in a billion-dollar plan to transform the battered site, where four enormous heaps of kiln dust lay idle since the cement company closed in 1981.
State regulators knew the kiln waste piles were a potential environmental hazard.
In 1988, they received complaints about reddish liquids seeping into Little Traverse Bay. A staff report concluded the deposits contained arsenic, chromium, copper, lead, nickel, selenium and zinc. It also said that alkalinity exceeding Michigan water quality standards.
But regulators believed the concentrations were not dangerous, said Bob Wagner, a supervisor in the state Department of Environmental Quality’s Remediation and Redevelopment Division.
Eager for the site to be redeveloped, state officials agreed not to sue Bay Harbor for future environmental problems. The developers installed a 1,200-foot pipeline at the foot of the only pile known to be leaching. Contaminated runoff was treated and funneled to a wastewater treatment plant.
The pipeline was shut down for about nine months in 2004 to fix clogging problems, said Tim Petrosky, a CMS Energy spokesman. The same year, a DEQ inspector discovered toxic liquid from the dust piles flowing into the lake.
Tests found alkalinity at levels that could burn eyes, mucus membranes and exposed tissues, said Kendzierski, the community health official. No cases of illness or injury have been verified.
Kendzierki’s office advised people to avoid the tainted waters. About a dozen houses are in the leakage area. Workers have vacuumed up puddles of water with alkaline levels similar to industrial bleach.
A public park adjacent to the resort has been closed while CMS Energy and state regulators develop a long-term strategy, focusing on diverting water flow away from the dust piles.
“We want to do this right and we want to do it once,” Petrosky said.
Pay no attention the the man in the orange plutonium suit behind the chain link fence…
“I’m sure it’s not what people expected when they bought into this.”
People don’t get what they expect, they usually get what they deserve. Buying a “luxury” home on a former industrial site. Dopes.
Okay, I’ve had it. There are some large condo projects in Norfolk, VA. I’m tempted to print out some banners for their signs that say, “Bubble liquidation - 40% off remaining units.” Can you imagine the buzz it would create? I was also thinking about “40% off in 2008″ stickers for other RE signs.
Anyone else thought of going “activist” on your local market?
That is a definite yes. I was thinking about making signs (Friends don’t let friends buy real estate) and putting them next to the (for sale) signs. Wonder is it’s illegal? Wonder if it would hit the papers?
You have to have permission to post on someone elses property, and the roadside property belongs to the owner of the house with an easement to the county for the road in most places, as far as I know, so I doubt that you would get permission from the owner in order to post the sign legally.
It might make a good bumper sticker, though.
I’m not talking about putting the sign in the yard… I mean on the corners of the street. Who does that belong to?
I know what I can do. Put up a garage sale sign and on the bottom it will read something like forced move, losing home.
pateince my dear Melody, patience!
Re: ever expanding bubble….When I heard Fresno, Bakersfield was one of the bubble cities ” I knew ” it was over…Now every city with a population over 1000 is bubbling. Scary too be sure…But you are correct even the responsible will be dragged to the pit when this unwinds. You read last week on a thread here how Cal-pers had invested in several over saturated housing markets in India? When this pops it’s going to be a surprise to all how far the rot spread. Their so called secured retirement is POOF ~ evaporated into thin air….
if you look at diverse areas, they all tend to go up and down at the same time. it’s mostly liquidity driven. they all seem to basically rise and fall together.
But on the other hand, over the past two years CalPers has sold a lot of its U.S. real estate.
Cal-pers? Isn’t that some kind of fruit drink? LOL!!! I went to India (wife from there). Did they buy into the plywood and rug houses in the sewage infested fields?
I thought it was some sort of gland…
True story. I was wearing my Mr. Housing Bubble tshirt. First stop was to the business property management office. The woman there got a laugh out of it, which was a relief because I can only imagine her and her husband own a bunch of investment properties.
The second stop was the post office. The woman at the counter thought it was so funny. She was getting all of the other people to look at it, and I was kind of like uh oh. She was going on about how she just used to love bubble bath and did the bubble beard thing. I was feeling really uncomfortable hearing all this. And she TOTALLY didn’t get the whole housing part. She thought it was a shirt about bubble bath liquid. Ugh. Someone else was giving me a really dirty look tho. I bet he knew what it was.
Otherwise I’ve never gotten a comment on the shirt.
Va Beyatch, you are so bad girl! Giving those realtors on the HR real estate blog such a hard time…
You may have already noticed, Va. Beach sfh inventory up 15% in the last 3 weeks, 20% in the last five. Almost as much a climb in inventory for condos. Also, median price at the 50th and 75th percentiles is now down significantly from its peak only 6 - 8 weeks ago.
Now, a little bad news. In Williamsburg, where over the last couple of months prices per square foot were all over the place and seemed on average to be down about 10 to 15%, inventory has declined significantly for 2 weeks in a row. That suggests to me that HR is going to get the very slow leak rather than the quick correction.
VaBeach - sell them on EBAY!
ITs sad how oblivious some people are, but true!
(ie woman behind counter)
On second thought its a good thing she didn’t get it, you were in the Post Office right! –she might have gone “postal” on ya!
>VaBeach - sell them on EBAY!
Or you COULD just get them here…
http://tinyurl.com/byj47
I hate seeing these locusts spread to SLC.
Folks, we’ve seen this herd mentality play out in other places and all they leave is an explosion of inventory, inflated prices, and a local economy that stands on the edge of a knife. We can only hope the increase in interest rates will temper the rapid increase in prices so places like SLC and Texas don’t get nailed like SoCal, Vegas, Florida and Phoenis (amongst others). The middle class gets screwed, most of the flippers get screwed (luckily), and the local economy gets screwed by these idiots. Only the flippers without compulsive gambling habits (about 1%) and a few individuals with massive land holdings before the boom end up benefiting.
Maybe we can beat the herds. 1) We sell in a bubble zone and buy in a non bubble zone. When that area bubbles up repeat step 1. 1 to 2 moves should allow us to pay cash for a house. 3 to 4 = early retirement for us all!!!
Our motto could be. “Don’t go where the bubble is, go where it’s going to be.”
well, need to leave ca got me thinking. i might make a real effort to buy my next property from a distressed flipper. after all we’ve gone through, nothing short of poetic justice will do.
let’s see how old floppy likes the taste of renter shoe leather
I live in SLC, and I can say that SLC has become a mania. Every other billboard is somthing related to a homebuilder, realt-whore, granite countertops, and real estate “investing.”
Half the radio commercials are about real estate specuvesting. Inventory is near record lows. There’s only 4,619 listings in the MLS for Utah, SLC, and Davis counties with a population of 1.7Mil.
A 3/2 1500sqft SFH now costs $200,000 in SLC, up from about $125,000 in the year 2000.
The stupid californians are buying up homes left and right, sight unseen, with offers over asking. House prices are now out of line with rents. A $200,000 house rents for about $1000/mo and a $300,000 house rents for $1300-$1500. The Californicators have ruined this market. Don’t they realize that the median family income is $45k and can’t sustain house prices in the 200k-300k range??
You can go to West Valley and buy a 3/2 house for 150-175k, but you risk getting shot, mugged, or having your wife/daughter being raped.
get your governor… to ‘limit one home per out of state customer’
Heh heh, sorry to laugh, but the locust analogy is quite apt…
The same plague seems to be hitting more and more areas…if it follows it’s normal progression, you will soon have The Learning Anex putting on a Real Estate Wealth Seminar in SLC, telling how You Too Can Participate In The Infinite Wealth Opportunities That Real Estate Investing Can Bring.
Hey, Trona, CA hasn’t been bubblized yet…
all the iranians need to do hurt us is keep talking smack. they don’t even need nukes. with oil at $75 and rising, they can bring this country to its knees with nothing more than scary press releases.
amazing how vulnerable we’ve become
Ok cereal - you listen to the press/ media toooo much.
OIl is NOT going down from th e Govt $70 Katrina short! Due to the release of its make believe strategic oil supply…. NOr becasue of IRAN ( ok partly)..But the fact is about 25% of our National production comes from the Gulf region….and “24% of that is NOT BACK ON LINE and WILL NOT BE BACK ON LINE UNLESS OIL STAYS ABOVE $75″…………….I read that quote from an Entergy spokeperson in Baton Rouge LA………… 2 months ago.
“all the iranians need to do hurt us is keep talking smack. they don’t even need nukes. with oil at $75 and rising, they can bring this country to its knees with nothing more than scary press releases.”
It almost sounds like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hugo Chavez have a private arrangement to say crazy things and rile the oil markets. But that would never happen.
“I hate to see these locusts spread to SLC”
It is definitely happening here in SLC. I sold my home early last year and downgraded to a smaller house. We had people from California, Florida, and North Carolina call wanting to fly in to look at the house. The house went under contract the first day on the market so they didnt have a chance to come out.
I started tracking Inventory in SLC in June of last year. At the end of June ‘05 there were 3841 homes on the market in (SL County). Today there are 2488. Utah county had 2588 at the end of June and has 1522 today.
these people are like locusts. they are scum. they have permanently destroyed the phoenix market. all appreciation is done. there is an eeerie calm in scottsdale. not as many bmw m3s rolling around. hardly ever see a Cali or Nevada license plate. less and less idiots with yukons and escalades on 22″ rims. The local gmc/chevy/ caddillac/ hummer dealers are choking on inventory…they are running out of space to put these meatheadmobiles…and now they overflow inventory to gravel back lots. give me $5 gas. phuck’em all, like Scarface. 43236 is the new inventwhorey number.. that was a good joke who ever said it … Realtwhore… that sums it up!!!
Damn. 43k. At this rate, my guess of 50k in October’s gonna miss.
Nope, by my Excel spreadsheet, we are still on track for crossing 50K inventory on June 4 or so (plus or minus a few days)…
Renting has a certain stigma here in SLC, doesn’t it. As does driving an economy car. That said, the rents are so cheap, it’s tough to feel like you’re “throwing money away” each month. I reckon the housing boom is just getting started here. Not to be outdone by these putative out-of-staters, “entrepreneurial” Utahns will be snapping up multiple houses in outskirts like Draper. It’s inevitable, isn’t it. An expression of the same communal impulse that makes Hummer *the* motorcar of choice around here. People will allow themselves anything, that’s the culture. Welcome to the provinces.
I think it’s more Yuckons, Tawhores, and slowburbans more than Hummers in SLC.
On one hand I think it’s just getting started and I think back to 90-93, but then again, once the national psychology changes and interest rates reach 7.0-7.5%, it could take out the knees from under this market.
Comment by VaBeyatch
2006-04-21 11:01:37
True story. I was wearing my Mr. Housing Bubble tshirt.
Someone else was giving me a really dirty look tho. I bet he knew what it was.
Hahah. I’d love to get one of the Mr. Bubble shirts, but I live in Las Vegas, if I were to wear it in public, there is a good chance I’d be taking my very own life into my hands. I’d probably have a mob of investing tourists and realtwhores chasing me down.
Comment by foobeca
2006-04-21 11:47:37
I live in SLC, and I can say that SLC has become a mania. Every other billboard is somthing related to a homebuilder, realt-whore, granite countertops, and real estate “investing.”
Half the radio commercials are about real estate specuvesting. Inventory is near record lows. There’s only 4,619 listings in the MLS for Utah, SLC, and Davis counties with a population of 1.7Mil.
A 3/2 1500sqft SFH now costs $200,000 in SLC, up from about $125,000 in the year 2000.
The stupid californians are buying up homes left and right, sight unseen, with offers over asking. House prices are now out of line with rents. A $200,000 house rents for about $1000/mo and a $300,000 house rents for $1300-$1500. The Californicators have ruined this market. Don’t they realize that the median family income is $45k and can’t sustain house prices in the 200k-300k range??
You can go to West Valley and buy a 3/2 house for 150-175k, but you risk getting shot, mugged, or having your wife/daughter being raped.
This is exactly how things started out in Las Vegas. Be prepared to wait a long time for these flippers to go away. Oh yeah, rental rates and average wages for Salt Lake City are about the same for Vegas too. And just who are the flippers going to sell $300K homes to? The local Mormon population already stretched out budgetwise from having to raise 4+ kids?
I’ve only been beating the drum for 7 months that if you must speculate in Dallas, it has to be the Park Cities. I’m sure longtime residents are taking the money and running. We all know we’ll be able to buy em back sooner than later from these idiots.
BTW, I know a guy in the Park Cities trying to sell a house for $12M that he paid about $1.8M a few years ago and did some renovations on. The place is hideous. It’s been for sale for over a year and the only offer he has received is for much less than he’s asking and the buyer asked him to carry the paper.