‘The Next Thing That Happens Is, Prices Drop’
It’s time to wrap up the week! From New Jersey, “Middletown will be conducting a court-mandated revaluation of the township over the next two years. However, many residents are concerned with the need to revalue the town, while residences are at their peak price. Mike Boylan noted that the last revaluation was conducted at the peak of the housing market in 1991. He noted there were ‘massive’ tax appeals following the collapse.”
“However, Robert Hecht, the township tax assessor said, ‘There is no identifiable trend to indicate that housing prices will fall.’ Boylan disagreed with Hecht’s assessment of the housing market. ‘There is a larger inventory, houses are staying on the market longer, the next thing that happens (is) that prices drop,’ Boylan said.”
“Housing sales in Central Ohio have been on the rise since January. Sales of existing homes rose 9.5 percent last month to 2,344 houses, compared to 2,140 a year earlier, the Columbus Board of Realtors reported Friday. More than 5,100 houses were added to the market in March, pushing the inventory of available homes up 25 percent over a year ago, to 15,990 listed houses.”
From Maryland. “Total units settled in March this year was 122 as compared to 218 units settled in March 2005. This is a drastic decline. Average housing prices overall in Worcester County have slipped by a little more than 8 percent in the past 12 months, coming down from $433,750 last March…Simply put, personal income has not kept pace with real estate prices in general, and certainly not with the rising number of luxury homes and units in the Ocean City area.”
Some corporate executives had a busy week. One was in a giving mood. “Luxury-builder Robert Toll, along with his wife Jane have made one of the largest gifts in University of Pennsylvania Law School history: $10 million in support of aspiring students and young alumni who wish to pursue careers in public interest law.”
“‘We desperately need more young lawyers to take on society’s challenges,’ law school Dean Michael A. Fitts said. ‘Fortunately, Bob Toll has removed some of those barriers for years to come, and we are in his debt.’”
From Colorado. “Mortgage rates on Thursday approached their highest level in almost four years. ‘Clearly, this makes housing less affordable, so it will have a negative impact on sales,’ economist Tucker Hart Adams said. Metro-area foreclosures are on track to rise to the second-highest number ever.”
“‘And with less demand for housing and a rising inventory, that will put a downward pressure on housing prices,’ Adams said. Also, housing permits already have started to decline, which means builders will be hiring fewer construction workers. ‘In the ’80s, a lot of people blamed falling oil prices for our crash in the economy, but it was really caused by the construction industry leaving Colorado,’ Adams said.”
“California employment fell in March for the first time since last spring, the state reported today, a drop due almost entirely to a decline in the construction sector as the housing boom comes to a close. And the first ripples of the housing slowdown are beginning to be felt in the larger economy.”
“Over the last four years, soaring house prices generated widespread benefits. Now, fewer homes are selling, which means builders aren’t working overtime to make more of them. That means they need fewer workers, 9,400 fewer in March.”
“Christopher Thornberg, a senior economist at Anderson Forecast, said the forecast will be focusing on San Diego because its housing market is the first to follow a nationwide trend of depreciation and a cooling of the real estate bubble.”
“‘A bubble is a function of a period of time where there is expectation in the marketplace and, as a result, people cash in and it feeds up the price,’ Thornberg said.’We see depreciation starting to flow and overall sales starting to decline, and when real estate markets cool, construction jobs are lost, and real estate and mortgage brokers lose their jobs,’ he said.”
“Edward Leamer, the director of Anderson Forecast, said, ‘We’re at the initial early warning signs. He said the housing bubble is 20 to 30 percent off its absolute peak, and with another three to four months of sales volume drops, it will be absolutely clear that the housing bubble has peaked. ‘Sales volumes will drop substantially. The popping will be more in terms of sales volumes than with real estate prices,’ Leamer said.”
Another busy week! My thanks to those who support this blog. Please check back this weekend for news, your market observations and topics. Be sure to email your housing bubble photos to the address in the sidebar for this weekends’ update.
“‘We desperately need more young lawyers to take on society’s challenges,’ law school Dean Michael A. Fitts said.
We need more lawyers?…Stop the insanity!!
I don’t have anything against lawyers, but I thought that was a good quote. Money well spent, Mr Toll.
“‘We desperately need more young lawyers to take on society’s challenges,’ law school Dean Michael A. Fitts said. ‘Fortunately, Bob Toll has removed some of those barriers for years to come, and we are in his debt.’”
Join the club pal. Wait till they buy one of his houses, then they will know about debt.
I agree. I personally do not like the McMansions, but Toll is one of the few firms that update financial reports on a consistent basis. I can think of nothing better to do with excess money than provide for education.
We need more class action lawyers! Bring on the lawsuits for the RE industry!
A lot of Lawyers are Real Estate Agents
“Fortunately, Bob Toll has removed some of those barriers for years to come, and we are in his debt.”
Maybe he’s buying protection.
Mr. Toll is among many quoted in an article on the front page of this morning’s Washington Post. It’s a doosie - check it out. http://www.washingtonpost.com/
I myself may be bringing a case against Mr. Toll!
First to follow a trend.
Ok, I know what a trend is, and I know what follow and being first mean.
But he mashes them all together like an abused jigsaw puzzle.
The start…. the epicenter….ground zero
“Over the last four years, soaring house prices generated widespread benefits. Now, fewer homes are selling, which means builders aren’t working overtime to make more of them. That means they need fewer workers, 9,400 fewer in March.”
And in turn I can tell you that the day laborers are probably starting to get a bit desperate. In my area where they hang out, by the two big lumber yards, fewer are being picked up and they are staying at the sites until almost 1:00 p.m.! Usually most of the crowd would be gone at 10:00 a.m. at the latest just last summer and fall. Also add in the fact that central coast farming has been totally blasted in the past month there were farmworkers looking for day labor jobs as well.That’s a whole lot of uncounted, undocumented unemployed workers. This summer ain’t gonna be pretty for these guys unless things turn around.
Time to double check the door/window locks and that is PURELY an economic observation.
I’m taking my wife to an NRA self defense class. She just loves he new Glock that I got her for Easter.
Careful pismo….. theres a charles manson hiding behind every tree! They’re looking in your windows! Lookout! They’re coming to get you!
I recently had to pay a couple of guys to help me move, and when I drove up, the whole crew of maybe 50 people by Home Depot was desperate to get anything. A year ago it was maybe a few people standing. I think remodeling and landscaping business is down a bit.
Same thing happened to me at uhaul in North Hollywood. A whole bunch of people standing on the corner just chillin asked be if I needed help moving. CraZY
Maybe the illegals will start going home when they can’t get jobs.
So there will be even less demand for “housing” at the low end which will pull the market down.
“This summer ain’t gonna be pretty for these guys unless things turn around.”
They could always turn south and walk home.
They are home Get used to it
Thornberg and Leamer are actually pretty good economists. I’m surprised Leamer is saying “The popping will be more in terms of sales volumes than with real estate prices.” I think this means that even good economists greatly underestimate how deep we are in the doo doo on this one. Notice that these guys are both sharp enough to realize that the bubble has already burst.
Surely he is logical, so Leamer’s point can only be that he believes a large percentage of active listings/sellers are under-motivated — that they do not need to sell.
I don’t agree with that, at least for the mid-to-long term and probably in the near-term. There are two groups who need to sell (many of the latter will not have enough sense to know this): those who are moving/transferring/undergoing family size change; and speculators who need to get out while they can.
If sales volume goes down and the houses are for sale by serious sellers, then prices must come down. Even my 12th grade gym coach-turned-Econ teacher knew that. The folks where I live are learning it, though most are learning the hard way.
The first approximation a “good” economist will offer, once he has ventured outside the reams of theoretical papers he needed to digest in order to achieve his reputation, is to assume that the current cycle will unravel the same way the last one, two, or three (or however many are readily observable) did. The more refined approach a better economist will offer (e.g. Robert Shiller) compares the level of the underlying causal factors this time around to the level in historically similar episodes. I believe one would have to go back in economic history to the 1920s to find similarly prevalent use of high risk lending, fostered by lax underwriting standards, which is 100% certain to result in widespread household defaults. Consequently, those economists who assume this housing downturn will be “about like” the last two are three are likely to underestimate the damage.
If anyone has better information on this, please share…
If most people are sheeple then most economists are sheeple. Look out below……
GS, I believe most prognostications are unwilling to look that far into history or to appear that grave. I, however, believe your comparison to the 20s is spot on.
Both Schiller and David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch have been warning of this problem for 2-3 years. All bubbles, when they pop, lead to lower prices. That is an historical fact. All of mortgage resets will be the final straw.
I would be cautious regarding the lower prices - if there is one thing different this time it is the unprecedented ballooning of the money supply.
So I wouldn’t be surprised if nominal home prices correct very little. As long as we have crazy lending and leverage, mortgage rates are not really important because buyers will still get all the money they want (just with a little more fraud and leverage).
nhz,
I think you are correct. It’s the lending that needs to be tightened up. I still have a hard time believing it’s just private money going into this thing. That should have run out a long time ago, or they should be seeking more risk premium. Smells of mis-directed hyperinflation to me.
When the affordibility index falls below 8% and rates are rising, real incomes are falling, and the home buying population is shrinking, nominal home prices WILL correct. These stars are aligning. It’s inevitable.
One thing different about the world this time around: unprecedented liquidity, enhanced by global financial flows, and extreme ease of fianancing. Just about anyone can still get a loan to buy just about anything at just about any price. There’s no serious sign that this situation is about to change, at least in the near term. Federal moves to “tighten lending standards” have been wimpish at best.
“I think this means that even good economists greatly underestimate how deep we are in the doo doo on this one.”
Or that the many folks on this board who expect a significant decline in prices are simply wrong.
‘Fortunately, Bob Toll has removed some of those barriers for years to come, and we are in his debt.’”
Lots of people are in debt due to the Tolls.
O.C. condos flipping quickly
http://tinyurl.com/kzyj8
I’ve been gone for a few days so I apologize if this has been posted already…
“Bruetsch is one of about 70 owners of condos in two Irvine towers who are selling or renting out units they just bought,…”
“Renting out” — what a wonderful phrase, as Ben’s Bears reap the reward of their patience by living waaaay beyond their means, if they choose, courtesy of flippers who do not understand the market and who apparently did not study economics.
My conjecture is that Ben’s blog will, in the future, be referred to in many econ and personal finance classes at colleges, “countrywide” :), as an example of how one dedicated person can have an inordinate influence (by historical standards) on the financial wisdom/education of an unlimited number of readers/followers, including the very, very saavy contributors hereto whose wisdom I’ve been privileged to read.
High housing costs start to affect demand
http://tinyurl.com/qptd5
Here’s another one. By Jon Lansner of the OC Register.
Real-estate job growth at 3-year low
http://tinyurl.com/kekok
More about the jobs report from the OC; interesting
Employment will not fall but we will see a “cooling” of new workers being hired. There, see? Nothing to worry about!
Maybe one of these lawyers can sue the Tolls’ in the public interest.
LOL, that ran thru my head too. What a crock. Yeah, we need more lawyers like we need more fleas and roaches. And this comes from a two lawyer household.
County’s business-friendly quotient drops
Orange County’s attractiveness as a place to do business is weakening, according to a new survey of 300 local companies.
http://tinyurl.com/nqovq
OT, Can someone point me to a graphic chart on Ca. RE ? I was
having a debate on prices falling in Northern Ca. more than once.
I know the Avg. is different ,but would like to see the dips…Many thanks all. Have a good weekend…Thanks, Ben !
167 homes on Ziprealty.com’s greater SD inventory show a listing date of 4/21/06. The inventory on there shows 19,171, which is only 109 below the official July 2005 high of 19,280 (and likely higher if you add in all the FSBOs not on Ziprealty.com). I think the housing bubble must have popped by now for sure, because I should feel elated and vindicated, but instead I feel a sense of apprehension about the oncoming post-bubble economic gloom.
Perhaps this news has me feeling anxious as well (and I believe it initiates a trend that will continue with the unraveling of the CA bubble economy):
“San Diego homicides jump sharply in 1st quarter of ‘06
Police chief: Stats ‘most disturbing’
By Joe Hughes
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
April 20, 2006
Homicides in San Diego are up 75 percent, with 14 in the first three months of 2006, compared with eight during the same period last year.”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20060420-9999-7m20quarter.html
First of all, I have to say that G-Stucc is one of the few regulars here whose postings I stop and read seriously as I skim down the long pages.
However, on the homicide numbers - can we consider these numbers statistically significant? Going from 8 to 14 is not very convincing. Could go from 4 to 7 and still claim 75%. We’d need to draw the line somewhere on a minimum sample size (sample or population st.dev. would be helpful, too), and I’d bet the frothy farm that 14 out of 1.2 million wouldn’t make it.
Humblest apologies for even bringing it up - my students are studying for the AP Stats test May 2nd.
Side note: GO SAN DIEGO! Finally, someone recognizes that we’ll be the “first to follow a trend” (WTF?).
Although interestingly my neighbor, out of the blue, one day started getting mad at me and started pushing me, just out of nowhere. Talked to him the next day and he apologized, said he’s stressed out b/c his ARM just reset and he is feeling the cunch. Ouch.
Although interestingly my neighbor, out of the blue, one day started getting mad at me and started pushing me, just out of nowhere.
WTF? If someone did that to me I’d call the police and have him charged with assault. What did you do?
NoVA inventory took another huge jump, from 16793 yesterday to 17132 today. That’s a 2% rise in inventory in a single day. It’s also 15.2% higher than the first of April, and 415% higher than April 21, 2005.
John - Check out this morning’s Post - front page.
Thanks, DC_Too - great article, and I’m sure Ben will post this later. I think that NoVA has a much bigger problem than most people realize.
I’m in the process of transferring to Southern California with my employer. I’m going to locate my family to either the Conejo Valley or Santa Clarity Valley regions.
After being a homeowner for over a decade, it took me a little while (with going to open houses, speaking with agents, speaking with mortgage brokers, talking to locals, researching historical trends, watching how people blow their money, reading this blog, etc.) to conclude and accept the fact that renting is a smart thing to do right now.
Any doubt I had about this (renting) being the right decision was wiped away a moment ago after I called a local RE Agent about some homes in a particular Thousand Oaks subdivision. I asked him to keep me informed when some local sellers become really motivated so I could make some really low ball offers. His surprising response was “Why would you consider buying now? I expect a 10-15 reduction in prices. The earliest you should consider buying is late summer.” He also advised that foreclosures have increased dramatically in the local region.
I think we had different ideas of a low ball offer. He (the RE Agent)considered a 20% dip to be extreme. I’d consider a $450K offer on a $800K asking price. That’s about 44% off.
I love this Blog.
Thanks
Bill
Greetings from the Las Posas Valley.
Sorry but there aren’t any foreclosures in the Conejo Valley so they cannot be increasing dramatically. Wait til Countrywide lays off 2000 or so.
Hate to say it, $800k asking price is still flying off the shelf at $789 in the Conejo Valley (but hey, its not 810 like it would have been in 05). Try Santa Clarita, Saugus, lots of empty flipper homes up there. Conejo Valley, not so much of that activity.
With the coming crime wave in Los Angeles, the boomer demographics and out of control municipal and county spending in LA there is going to be a lot of turnover in Simi Valley in the next few years. Simi is chock full of LAFD, LAPD, LASD, LAUSD, etc. employees. If you remember the Metrolink crash a few years ago, the vast majority of the riders were public employees.
Deputy James Tutino, a LA County sheriff’s deputy
Scott McKeown, 42, a telecommunications manager for the City of
Pasadena
Julia Bennett, 44, of Simi Valley, who was a senior clerk typist with
the Los Angeles City Fire Department
Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department employee Manuel Alcala, 51, a senior maintenance worker
Elizabeth “Liz” Hill, an accounting services specialist with the City
of Glendale
Alfonso Caballero, 62, Los Angeles Department of Aging
Henry Kilinski, 39 Henry Kilinski left the Los Angeles Fire Department
a couple of years ago for an insurance job in Burbank
William Parent, 53 stock clerk for the Los Angeles Unified School
District
Do you think their deaths were “selective?” No, Metrolink is a vast
carpool for civil servants. It’s a great way to retain experienced
personnel without resorting to illegal residency requirements. The
thing to ask is why LA City, County and School personnel are living in
Ventura and Simi. Checked housing prices in Ventura or Simi? Ventura 93001 $688,000. Simi Valley 93063, $630,000. At the time. Median, not average. As of 4/06 $612k and $592k.
Isn’t it great that we can afford to pay our civil servants so well that
not only can they afford $5000/mo mortgages but they get the equivalent of a free BMW in transit subsidies annually.
I must be getting old. I couldn’t imagine living in Santa Clarita or Saugus. Noisy, dusty… teeming I guess is the best adjective. I’d kill myself after a few weeks of stop’n'go I-5 commutes. The fumes from mile upon mile of fast food stip malls would be enough to clog my arteries and the sterile stucco blandburg developments would eat my soul.
Santa Clarita will as the saying goes; “go gently into the good night” in a long wasting disease. The Conejo Valley (Thousand Oaks, Newbury Park, Westlake) is going to take some bullets to the chest but will recover.
it will be interesting to see if valencia and stevenson’s ranch go down in flames as i expect to see in cc & saugus. there is quite a difference between these areas. i would live in bridgeport (possibly) at the right price, and with good local employment.
try the rattlesnake grill on soledad canyon road sometime. i hope ya like garlic
Robert,
Checked housing prices in Ventura or Simi? Ventura 93001 $688,000. Simi Valley 93063, $630,000. At the time. Median, not average. As of 4/06 $612k and $592k.
Isn’t it great that we can afford to pay our civil servants so well that
not only can they afford $5000/mo mortgages…”
__________________
Why do you think they all just bought recently? Simi Valley has long been filled with civil servants, which is why it was so safe, and why the civil servants continued to flock there (because it was a safe place to raise a family). Until recently, it was a very affordable place for middle-class people to live.
Again I will say, if you think cops, firefighters, teachers, etc. are overpaid and underworked, why aren’t **YOU** doing it?
Try it for a year, and then tell us how overpaid they are.
Ventura fire fighters are the highest paid employees in the county (fact!). When I was growing up, blue collar/state jobs was for “drop-outs” and going to college was the ideal. Now, getting a spongy state job (teacher, firefighter, policeman) is a so lucrative, where performance is never a factor and job security is assured… why else is there a huge waiting list for any of these jobs? Our state legislatures over the past decade or two have literally “bought” the votes of every one of their state employees.
If the citizens of this country knew about the pension/retirement benefits promised to these state jobs, then there would be an uprising. It is the best kept secret in this country. The situation is so bad that California and most other states will be looking at bankruptcy within most of our lifetimes!
In today’s Ventura County Star (registration required to read entire article):
http://www.venturacountystar.com/vcs/county_news/article/0,1375,VCS_226_4643249,00.html
Population’s flight fueled by high cost of housing
New U.S. Census figures show county’s losing its middle class
By Charles Levin, clevin@VenturaCountyStar.com
April 22, 2006
With two kids and another on the way, Yesenia Rodriguez and her husband needed a bigger house but couldn’t afford one in Ventura County.
So in August, they sold their three-bedroom home in El Rio for $505,000 and bought a six-bedroom house with a swimming pool in Bakersfield for $415,000.
They aren’t alone. Newly released numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau show that more people continue to leave Ventura County than arrive here from other counties, a trend that could bode ill for businesses and schools. The numbers, however, don’t include people coming here from other nations or residents moving abroad.
Census data released this week estimated that 10,642 more people left Ventura County than arrived from other counties from July 1, 2004, to June 30, 2005 — more than double its estimate of 4,700 for the previous fiscal year.
Explain please…
Hate to say it, $800k asking price is still flying off the shelf at $789 in the Conejo Valley
It’s not true. I live in Conejo Valley and inventory is building steadily, with a few sales here and there with a much higher discount that stated above. In general, buyer interest has waned significantly with most new Amgenites coming in opting to rent for at least a year. This post, and probably the two above designed to look like an interaction between two posters, is realtor spin designed to plant the belief that people who post here actually doubt prices will drop in the near future. Per the article in yesterday’s Ventura Star, there is actually a net outmigration of home buyers from Ventura County, increasing layoffs at Countrywide (area’s largest employer), and concurrently quite a bit of new development adding inventory in Oxnard, Ventura, Santa Paula, Simi Valley and Agoura Hills.
And after that, the next thing that happens is a man sells toddler to fix his home.
Unreal. Somebody pinch me. Or run 10 amperes through my brain.
Is that Tom Vu’s cousin?
Clarification: I think he meant the number of homes in pre-foreclosure has spiked. Yes, Country wide losing 2000 employees will partly offset Amgen’s hiring spree.
I’ve been tracking the number of NOD (trustee sale) public notice ads published by the Ventura County Star for a while now. Last summer, there were 1-3/day. Currently there are about 10/day while some days there are 15 and one day in January there were 20. Most are in Oxnard, Santa Paula, and other lower income areas but an increasing number are in TO.
Also, I worked at Countrywide for a few years and believe they will eliminate 3000-4000 jobs in Simi Valley alone in the next year, and perhaps a thousand or more in TO and Agoura. They’ve already been sending some of the WLV and Simi jobs to cheaper labor markets. I don’t think Amgen’s hiring will offset the Countrywide job reductions.
too bad they aren’t eliminating them in my area. our local countrywide is still pushing neg-am loans to little old ladies as long as they can still fog the mirror they get the loan. The party line is over 80% of their customers ask for these loans, everyone is doing it and you can simply sell or refinance in five years when your I/O resets. WTF? This is how they are still selling overpriced chitboxes in my area…
Calm down. 3-4000? Simi Valley alone?
6500 total in 2000, its about 9000 today. 3-4k layoffs would be a reversion to the mean for the entire company in the entire region.
Robert,
If 2006 Simi Valley Countrywide RIFs (mostly at Tapo East, some at Madera) are less than 3500 I’ll buy you a latte at the Starbucks on Las Posas and Daily drive. Of course, 80% of them will be $12/hour servicing employees. Might not offset the $80K Amgenites moving in.
I’m sorry, but what’s a RIF?
That’s what they used to call lay-offs back when I worked in the aerospace industry (reduction in force). Now I guess it’s “downsizing” or restructuring or realignment of resources or something. Countrywide has a huge number of contractors who can be let go with no notice (they get a call at home Sunday saying show up at 10am tomorrow and your supervisor will watch you clean out your cubicle). Many perm employees are eliminated by moving departments to Plano and other spots; half elect to give up the jobs.
Funny, nobody wants to admit the possibility of a price drop unless it means a lower tax assessment.
Someone else posted this story from the W. Post, but I wanted to make sure no one missed it in the clutter. Great, great piece on how the D.C. market is massively infested with specuvestors who now can’t sell — they even have a picture of that lockbox-covered bench outside the project where about 50 of 200 units are for sale. Here’s the link:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/21/AR2006042101720.html
Very good article Mike-in -Fl .
Re: Washington Post Article
Real estate agents say many are so leery about where prices are headed that they are engaged in a kind of stare-down with sellers as they seek to negotiate for lower prices and more concessions.
I won’t be the first to blink.
The DC metro area is going to go through a whole lot of hurt and change in the next two years. This area has a great deal of illegal immigrants. Many of them rent a house and turn them into flop houses where the construction worker pays like 200 a month for a place to sleep. If the jobs go away then what?
I also think the foreclosures coming due to I/O loans and the lowering of lending standards have the potential to change the character of entire neighborhoods.
It really is astonishing just how many flippers there were/are out there and combined with unscrupulous lending practices, which this article doesn’t even touch, a perfect storm is forming.
I don’t think this is confined to DC and the major metro areas either. I can’t think of to many areas around the country where prices didn’t increase exponentially during the last 3 years.
novasold
novasold
For me locally, this is interesting. Here in Balto our ridiculous appreciation has mostly been blamed on DC residents felling high DC prices to more affordable (well, it was at one time) prices here. But now that DC is obviously cooling, despite the fact that “DC will never go down because _________ (insert BS reason of choice here)”, will those who fled move back to escape the traffic and actually have public transit to lessen gas pains? This has not yet been addressed by all those bubble-proppers around here, it seems that is the elephant in the room that everybody ignores. But here, houses are still coming on the market for 20% more than last year, and prices are not really dropping. Homes at or below $200K are still selling like hotcakes, but anything above $400K is sitting. Goes to show you what has to happen for homes to become affordable again.
baltimorehousing.blogspot.com
felling = fleeing
http://tinyurl.com/eq5wl
A fine builder here in central florida.
Thank God!! The only place where prices may continue to go up is TX! I just listed my house in Plano last week got 20 showings in 1 week and a contract to go with it! I only had to take a little off the price and am waiting an inspecton! Pending a clean inspection it is going to be gone the beginning of May!! There are few houses on the market in Dallas (unlike last year) and the market is going up. Not crazy like California, but it is starting to recover. I know it has been much different with my house this year than last year. The coasts are busting and Dallas is starting to come back! I just am hoping my house there passes inspection and I am then finished with this whole nightmare! Let it bust like hell here in LA! How are these crazy people here going to afford $5 a gallon gas and readjusting mortgages next year??? They won’t! Let them burn!!!
LArenter,
Isn’t this the house you were worried about losing money on? If the sale goes through, will you at least break even? I hope so! Good luck!
Yes, it is that dreaded house! Thank you for your wishes!! I need all the wishes and prayers I can get!! Unfortunately I will be taking about $15k to closing, but I will be done with it and will have NO exposure to real estate at all!! I will be sitting on pins and needles for the next couple of weeks!
Loss in Tech jobs in Santa County is not over yet.
SUN Microsystems may be laying off 25% of its workforce.
CEO has been deferring this since dot.com bubble burst.
Might McNealy step down at Sun?
PRESSURE BUILDS FOR DEEP JOB CUTS
http://www.thestate.com/mld/mercurynews/business/14395328.htm?source=rss&channel=mercurynews_business
Sacconaghi estimated Sun would need to cut 10,350 to 12,150 jobs — or 27 percent to 31 percent of its worldwide workforce of about 39,000 — to reach an acceptable operating margin. But he added, that magnitude “would be difficult to execute without potentially undermining the business.”
One driving force in the RE market has been the flood of illegal immigrants. Not according to me, but according to our former Fed chief Greenspan. In testimony to Congress in November 2002, he said, with all seriousness, that the demand for housing from the persistent inflow of illegal immigrants reduced supply, which created the need for new construction, which created so many construction jobs and helped to boost the economy. In other comments on the costs of illegal immigration, in particular the costs associated with education and healthcare expenses, he said that it was difficult to peg because, even though there were known expenses associated with immigration, there were uncalculated benefits, such as construction demand and the creation of small businesses to support the immigrants. He wasn’t making a judgement about immigration, just a simple statement of an economic fact.
His point was and is, if you see a slowdown in immigration (illegal and legal) due to increasing enforcement or new laws, what will happen to the local economies where immigration is significant? What will happen to the demand for real estate and to the construction sector of in states like CA and AZ?
In SoCal illegal immigrants have a significant impact on the price of construction labor, but not on the demand for $400,000 mortgages. Even though it only takes enough breath to make fog on a mirror to qualify for some absurd 0-down scheme these days, most illegals opt to send their dollars back to Mexico instead.