Bits Bucket For March 24, 2009
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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The government at present has the authority to seize only banks.This item from the Washington Post should cause a general alarm, but it won’t.
ITEM: The Obama administration is considering asking Congress to give the Treasury secretary unprecedented powers to initiate the seizure of non-bank financial companies, such as large insurers, investment firms and hedge funds, whose collapse would damage the broader economy, according to an administration document.
In a time of emergency governments grab power and rarely let it go. Says Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, “It’s a necessary thing for any government to have a broader range of tools for dealing with these kinds of things, so you can protect the economy from the kind of risks posed by institutions that get to the point where they’re systemic.”
NOTE: Where, in the Constitution, is there a directive for the central government to “protect” the economy?
I read that and wondered why they don’t just proactively break up these companies now instead of allowing the treasury to seize them at will in perpetuity.
Barack Obama, meet Hugo Chavez. You guys appear to have a lot in common.
That’s what I was thinking!
Random seizures of property coming right up!
“Random seizures of property coming right up!”
Once again I ask you guys not to over-react like this. Large financial (and non-financial) firms are already, for all intents and purposes, government agencies. When, as is the case here, pretty much all the shareholder equity is gone, all we’re really looking at is one part of gov’t seizing another part.
I would also point out that state insurance regulators have long had the power to take over the operations of insurance companies that are in danger of failing and shortchanging policyholders.
LehighValleyGuy,
So very well said Sir. The gal across the hall from my office worked for one of the big insurers for years in underwriting. Her basic observation is that insurance/annuities etc. are SO highly regulated that you’re basically dealing with the -same- product NO MATTER who you go to!
Oh they can tweak a few things here and there but by and large the only thing they ‘can’ sell is the relationship, and that’s why they all focus on “knowing their customers” etc. Just for a QUICK contrast, State Farm pitches their “bank services” each and every damn month!
I was just curious to see if people thought had THEY wrote the volume of loans Countrywide did if we’d be in the same mess today? Just curious.
Not really, at least Chavez seizes profitable companies.
Good point, Mike.
LOL
The government has always had the ability to seize businesses, homes, etc on the be haft of rich individuals who want to build, say a baseball stadium or football stadium.
OMG, don’t even get me started about eminent domain. How many people know that NOWHERE in the U.S. Constitution is the gov’t granted the power of eminent domain?
Eminent domain is mentioned in passing in the Bill of Rights, but this is supposed to be a list of protections for individuals against the gov’t, not a way for the gov’t to get new powers through the back door. If the Third Amendment were interpreted the same way, George Bush would have had the power to station troops in Barbara Streisand’s living room, because after all we are in a time of war.
But the Constituion does say that govt cannot take property without “just compensation.” I imagine that is where the concept of eminent domain comes from…
LMAO about 10-15 years ago………city wanted to put up an ice rink, tried low-balling the property owners. Seized a bunch of houses and tore them down via “eminant domain”.
Owners filed suit; in the meantime, city puts up the mulit-million dallar skating ring.
5 years later, goes to judge. Judge finds in favor of the Homeowners, orders city to settle, plus pay for attorney’s fees, etc.
At least around here, judges take a dim view of “eminent domain” claims, when it comes to non-essential projects, or government using it to benefit private developers
At least when Hugo seizes assets from international oil companies, he’s got something to show for it i.e. oil production capaicity. Giethner (and Obama), if this plan were to come to fruition, would be siezing FIRE assets, which is to say, a lot of worthless paper.
Dred
So, all of that worthless paper and your mention of FIRE assets makes me wonder if buring this worthless paper is Obummers “energy policy” items.
Yeah, they are both sane.
Article I Section 8; the part where Congress has the power to regulate foreign and inter-state commerce.
Awww. The commerce clause. Aka, “the backdoor loophole that grants unlimited powers to all things and everything.”
RE: Where, in the Constitution, is there a directive for the central government to “protect” the economy?
Constitution? We don’t need no Constitution.
LMAO…First it starts with impromptu roadblocks by the cops for potential “OUI” suspects, gutting the concept of “probable cause” and illegal search and seizure, which no one protests because who would dare be so politcally incorrect as to tell MADD they are full of shit.
It ends with a fascist who will confiscate and control whatever fits his party’s particular political agenda, as you are witnessing now.
All enabled by an ignorant electorate of chicken-little, sheep who bleat for more entitlements and governmental security.
People get the government they deserve.
+1
The headlines these days are absolutely creepy. “We Need Regulatory Muscle” (MSNBC). “Timmy Seeks New Powers” (Boston).
It goes on and on. Hopefully the Rolling Stone article this week opens some eyes. I got the feeling it won’t. As long as people can get fake boobs and big trucks they won’t care thay they’re selling the next generaiton down the river.
They didn’t care before; why should they care now? The first time they did it (created SS then paid out to those who never paid in) there was a huge gain, the second time (raided the trust fund for bigger current payouts, to those who had paid in minimally) there was a nice dividend. Pension funds followed suit (it’s all good, we’ll just invest in the
casinostock market).The funny thing is, the collapse won’t really be a collapse, though millions will see a cutback in their outsized dreams. America is France 2.0. Remember, they went broke chasing overseas adventure and keeping up with crazy monarchical spending, while the noble class, which consumed most of the rents, paid no taxes. It’s been all downhill from there (centuries of it), with a certain degree of political instability (some worse than others) and of course a humiliating capitulation to the
PrussiansNazis during WWII. (This after a series of costly military defeats from the 1870’s on.)Rich Americans in the 1920’s made Paris their playground… Parisians were furious. We got a foretaste when the Japanese had their bull run, but that didn’t last. Guess we’re in for more of it.
Anybody here for states’ rights?
As I understand it, any (as in, ANY) powers not specifically granted to the Federal government are [supposed to be] possessed by the state governments.
If the Articles of Confederation had prevailed as the law of this land, as, for example their equivalent has done in Switzerland, would we be anywhere near the mess we are in? Heck, we might be hosting tea parties in expensive hotels for International Red Cross conventions. For sure, we would not be borrowing money from China in order to fight a war (what is it for, again?) in Afghanistan and we wouldn’t be borrowing money from China in order to buy rubbers from China to ship to Africa for birth control and AIDS prevention. Instead, we might have been prevailing on other countries, without budget and trade deficits like ours, to do it instead.
What are you, a drunk?
Actually, I seriously doubt it, since I feel the same way and I’m certainly not a drunk (at least when I drive). In any case, I started this post just to show how fascists deal with opposition. I suspect we’ll be seeing a lot more of this now.
One man’s “fascist” is another’s “well-meaning regulator”.
Nobody in the USA under the age of 70 has seen a REAL FASCIST up close. These labels have been misused so much, that they don’t mean anything anymore.
Both parties get their “base constituencies” panties in a knot (and the money/free campaign manpower) by saying that the election of their opponents will mean that “life as we know it” will disappear, to be replaced by some Communist/Socialitst/Fascist/Neo-Nazi dictatorship.
The Republicans have gotten their pee-pees whacked the last two election cycles, because of faulty policies and overreaching to complete their political agenda. I fully expect to Democrats to do the same thing, at which time they will get the same treatment.
You guys should form a bitter Republican support group. God you need it! Wa wa wa. LOL. A bunch of hand ringers! Where was all your outrage the last 8 years while the constitution was shredded?
Wa wa wa.
Ah, yes. Illegal warrantless wiretapping, holding people without trial, torturing people, political prosecutions, etc. Now that the govt wants to take over a few broke insurance companies, we are all of a sudden fascists. Geez!
Actually, I was against the trashing of the Constitution for the past eight years as well. I didn’t like the trashing of the Constitution then, and I don’t like it now. I’ve been a card carrying member of the LP since a few days following September 11, 2001 as I saw what was being done in the name of freedom. I read “The Rise of the Third Riech” that November in an effort to see how frightened citizens in a highly educated state can willingly embrace tryanny.
I’ve not voted for an LP candidate for President only once: 2004, and that was because LP candidate that year did not make the ballot in my state. I debated until actually casting my vote should I go Dem or Repub. My vote came down to voting against the then-current administration as they had four years of evidence of trashing the Constitution whereas the opposition party did not.
The Bush administration spent eight years trashing the Constitution. Just because the Obama administration has only spent two months trashing it doesn’t make it right.
The right-wingers believe the Democrats are socialists and/or communists. Interesting, because the Repubs gave us 8 years of non-stop socialism for the rich under Bush. It’s funny how Repubs support socialism when it is lining the pockets of their rich friends.
As soon as anyone starts blaming either Republicans or Democrats I stop listening to them… if you cannot see that they are two masks on the same face then your opinion is worthless. Look at their actions, not their empty / impossible promises used to get elected!
I am hoping that this administration will provide enough fodder for equal disillusionment of remaining loyal Dems as Bush did for the Repubs. (The messiah-like worship of Obama is an awesome start. The only direction from that pedestal his groupies have put him on is down). I’m sick of the same old stale media-fed rhetoric, too. ALL politicians are bought and paid for by special interest, whether it be oil, banks, real estate, pharmaceuticals, labor unions, whatever. They are NOT serving their constituents and anyone that thinks they are is insane. WAKE UP PEOPLE! Your taxes are being used, by whatever party is in power, to promote corporate America’s agenda, not the people’s.
I have to be for Obama and hope he succeeds at all he wants to do, especially healthcare plans. My 22 year old daughter was diagnosed with leukemia last year. It could happen to anyone. She was working out at the gym every other day and then she was in the hospital, having lost half of her blood. You can get something like that and it goes so fast, from being healthy all your life to near death in a matter of days. I used to think the show “House” was such an exaggeration but its not.
Anyway, how will she ever get health insurance and how will she ever own a home of have anything in her own name unless Obama is successful? Bush didn’t care about doing anything to help people with pre-existing conditions; neither did his father and neither did Reagan. McCain hadn’t given 5 minutes of thought to it and it showed in the bizarre tax credit plan he came out with. Obama had it right that the Republican “ownership” philosophy is really “You’re on your own” and anything to benefit the American people is “socialism.”
God bless Obama and his family. They are making a huge sacrifice to take on this mess. They had a very nice life going for them in Chicago. Obama and his family are right up there with my daughter’s doctors as people for whom I want all good things and blessings.
Lady you’re nuts. Obama’s making a huge sacrifice ? For every ambitious politian, the presidency is the superbowl, world series, world cup, etc.. rolled into one. Good luck to your daughter.
Plaid
My heart goes out to your family. It sounds like your daughter is doing well now. I remember going to a funeral in jr. high, for another girl scout who died of leukemia. Many years ago, it was generally a death sentence.They have made great progress with blood cancers, and can cure you now. My mother has had one twice, and is still kicking 20 years later.
The reform of our healthcare system is well overdue. I just don’t think even Obama will get it right, let alone improve it much. The lobby is too big in DC. We’ll see. Yeah, both parties are the same, both worthless.
Best of Health to your daughter.
Thanks for the kind words and best wishes for your Mom.
There has been a lot of progress in childhood leukemia. This is an interesting short article about it http://www.aplblog.org/ - The long term survival rates in children went from 20% to 80% from the the 70’s until now. The type my daughter was dx’d with, Acute Promyelocytic Leukemia, has very good treatment and she is doing well but its hard and without a shake-up in the health insurance system, I worry that she’ll never be able to get health insurance when she is 25 and cannot stay on our employer policy.
Anon in DC,
Do you have kids? Moving a 6 year old and 10 year old away from their friends was a big family sacrifice. Those girls were happy in Chicago. It must be tough for them to go to a new school and have to make new friends.
We need a 3rd party. The Republicans only act like Republicans when they are not in power and the Democrats have gone to the Dark Side for Coprorate America.
VTD,
+1000
Mike
At some level, this is the flip side of government bailouts. If the government will rescue you, than it should be able to close you down when you are insolvent, instead of waiting until you’re so far underwater that you can’t borrow anymore. You really can’t have one without the other.
A government big enough to give you everything you want…
is big enough to take everything you have
[Thomas Jefferson]
RE: Thomas Jefferson quote
Urban legend…..Gerald Ford said that IIRC.
Hey, I thought Ben asked us to ease up on the politics.
No kidding! But is it displaced anger or disappointment about the economy, job prospects, or housing prices??
Is it implied i.e Social Contract… Might be a slightly liberal interpretation?
H-Dawg
COLUMBIA — A Greenville lawyer has been publicly reprimanded for his role in real estate deals that led to the indictments of several others on fraud charges.
The Greenville News reports that the South Carolina Supreme Court decided Monday not to punish 61-year-old James Fayssoux Sr. The justices said Fayssoux reported the misconduct, cooperated fully with investigators and has had no other problems in more than 30 years as an attorney.
The justices say he helped several people as they bought and sold real estate at inflated values to get banks to loan them more money than they should.
Court papers say Fayssoux stopped representing the clients because he had concerns about the transactions.
Fayssoux did not face criminal charges. He would not talk to the newspaper.
aNYCdj,
Yeah, another… case of someone that had no previous criminal record being seduced by incredibly easy money. Yesterday I read the Cease & Desist Order as posted on our OR Dept. of Finance & Corp. Securities website regarding our local bank failure and it was totally hysterical!
I’m no handwriting expert by any stretch but the ANGRY ( and flippant ) signatures, combined with printed “Declined to Sign” notes were just busting me up! Reminds me of the scene in “Something About Mary” at the Rest Stop.
“I was peeing too!”
Housing prices are now going up up up! according to FHFA.
http://tinyurl.com/d9cyc7
Long nite Ben? lmao
Well, some of my friends found out today was my birthday, and got me up kinda early. It’s gonna be a long one.
Hi Mom! I’ll be calling you soon.
Happy Birthday Ben!
Happy B-Day Ben,
Have fun but keep your eyes peeled for any of the disgruntled REIC gang n’ be ready to jump.
We hope to have you around for MANY more
Happy Birthday, Ben! Happy Birthday!
Sings loudly and beautifully: ‘Happy Birthday to yooooooooo, Happy Birthday to yoooooooooooo, Happy BIRTHdaYYYYYYY dear Beeeeee-eeeeennnn, Happy Birthday to yooooo!’
I hope you have a terrific day, and get a ton of presents, and are showered with affection and fondness and such-like good stuff from everyone. Shall you have cake? With candles? Little bright hats?
…Hey, wait a minute. Your mom read the HBB? So then, does she post on here? Who is it!? WHO IS IT!
Happy Birthday, Ben!
And who is the mom?
‘who is the mom?’
Why Mrs Jones, of course. I just call her mom.
ROTFLMAO
Have a great day, Ben!
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-03-24 09:41:04
Happy Birthday, Ben! Happy Birthday!
——————————————————–
You got the video to go along with that Marilyn?
After having seen the climatic ending of Battlestar Galactica, I think Olympiagal makes a lot more sense to me now.
Well I didn’t see it Skip and she still scares me
Happy Birth Day!
hartelijk gefeliciteerd from the Netherlands
Happy birthday.
Happy Birthday, Ben! Sounds like you have some great friends there, dragging you out to celebrate already. Beer for breakfast?
Mimosas, my favorite b-fest drink!
Sure, and whisky for lunch! It’s gonna be a looooooooooong day, I presume.
Or a very short one…
Happy Birthday from Grizzly and friends.
Beer for dinner and brandy for dessert. Got to get all the food groups in there afterall.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY ! Would that I could sing it to you at the top of my lungs, to the tune that I chose for the words ( William Tell Overture ), like I sing to my daughter on the cell phone when it’s her birthday, but I can’t, so I put it in caps instead, just to give you an idea of the VOLUME you would be hearing it at….oh well, even if I could sing it to you instead of write it to you, it would be useless, because Oly would be drowning me out with her (no doubt) drunken revelry to celebrate your natal day. That’s natal, not navel. Anyway, Happy Birthday.
You’re not the woman that calls me drunkenly past midnight and sings to her “darling daughter”, are you?
And she seems to have a lot of daughters but no memory post-inebriation!
Oh well! It’s nice to have somebody sing you birthday wishes every once in a while particularly if it’s every few months or so!
but I can’t, so I put it in caps instead, just to give you an idea of the VOLUME you would be hearing it at….oh well, even if I could sing it to you instead of write it to you, it would be useless, because Oly would be drowning me out with her (no doubt) drunken revelry to celebrate your natal day. That’s natal, not navel. Anyway, Happy Birthday.
Ahhhh….?
Now, IIIIII’m not drunk. (Yet. And I stress the ‘yet’.) But I bet I know a mature gorilla who is; protestations notwithstanding…
and this is perfectly okay. Better than okay, because jeeze, everyone should be celebrating Ben’s Birthday. Heck! It should be a National Holiday, even. Like with fireworks and floats and thingies.
Happy B’day Ben!
You’re what - 29 now right?
(adjusting for inflation of course - we all inflation gets to be an issue after a while)
I hope you have a very happy birthday, Ben!
Whew… it was a long morning without this blog.
Happy birthday, Ben.
Happy birthday, Ben!!
Have a good time today Ben
H a p p y B i r t h d a y, Ben!
It helps to use an anniversary of your 29th or 39th Birthday. It’s not so scary.
I’m celebrating the 13th anniversary of my 39th next month. Yikes, does time fly.
Hey, Happy Birthday, Ben!
Wow, your mother reads your blog???
And a big, phat Happy Birthday to ya from Slim!
Happy Birthday Ben!
Wishing you a happy year Ben!
Creative and sympathetic, the Aries born on March 24 sees their life as an expression of their deep inner creativity. Their good nature extends to everyone around them, and they are unlikely to have enemies. They possess a credible simplicity that attracts enthusiastic admirers.
Dreams and Goals:
For most March 24 natives, the concept of personal and professional goals may be an abstraction. They have a general idea of what they want to happen in their lives, but it is likely to be tempered by their wonder and enjoyment at watching events unfold.
Happy Birthday Ben. Here’s one from the Beatles:
You say it’s your birthday
It’s my birthday too, yeah
They say it’s your birthday
We’re gonna have a good time
I’m glad it’s your birthday
Happy birthday to you.
Yes we’re going to a party party
Yes we’re going to a party party
Yes we’re going to a party party
I would like you to dance (Birthday)
Take a cha-cha-cha-chance (Birthday)
I would like you to dance (Birthday)
Dance
I would like you to dance (Birthday)
Take a cha-cha-cha-chance (Birthday)
I would like you to dance (Birthday)
Dance
You say it’s your birthday
Well it’s my birthday too, yeah
You say it’s your birthday
We’re gonna have a good time
I’m glad it’s your birthday
Happy birthday to you.
Happy Birthday, Ben!
Happy Birthday, Ben. Your blog has been a gift.
Happy, happy birthday Ben!!! And congratulations not only on surviving another year, but surviving another year of us with our various blog particularities!
Enjoy the day, have lots of fun and may your next year be filled with health, wealth, and manageable posters.
Howdeeeeeeeeeeeeeeey Ben!
If you still x1 of those beers Mr. Cole & I got ya…open it today!
All the Best! x3 cheers & Hip Hip Hooray!
Happy B’Day!
Just tuned in. Happy Birthday!
Happy Birthday, Ben! Hopefully you are on the brandy course by now!
Happy Birthday Ben!
What a coincidence Ben, Its my birthday today as well. Happy Birthday.
Thanks so much first, and Happy Birthday second -
If you’re still conscious after all the celebration, Benster, felicitations of the day!
And a big “Thank You” to Ben’s Mum. You did good.
Late, as usual
Happy Birthday, Ben!!!!
Given that that agency originally reported a 0.1% rise in December, when the real data (Case/Shiller - much more widely used and regarded) showed a 2.5% drop in December - it appears the FHFA numbers are total hogwash.
That being said - some more anecdotal evidence to my point that I believe prices are starting to slow in their rate of decline.
Case/Shiller data is out in a few days - it’ll be interesting to see what that shows for January.
“That being said - some more anecdotal evidence to my point that I believe prices are starting to slow in their rate of decline.”
I said the same thing yesterday and everyone jumped on me for being a troll.
Well, you said we were “at or near a bottom”. I’m not saying that at all. I think it’s going to be a long slow curve to the bottom, so we won’t get there for a long time still. My point is that I think we’ve at least started the curve.
Forget about the birthday dammmmit marketwatch sez housing is going up up up again!!!!
Cramer was just on CNBC saying that “condo prices have bottomed in Miami”. I find this statement quite hard to swallow and hope Cramer is buying condos aggressively to time the bottom.
CCC.com (Cramer’s Crap Condos)?
is the world ending today? I was worried when I could not get my daily fix of HBB..
Chill!
UPI
The World ends
The almighty gave the time as 23:43 EST.
When asked why this capricious hour, the reporter, CNN’s Wolf Blitzer, was banished to eternal damnation.
Now that Battlestar Galactica is over and Starbuck is dead, there’s no reason to go on living.
you sir…suck.
i am only on season 3.
Only saw the miniseries
Biiiiink! I rebuke you! There are some here who have not watched the whole final season, I think Elanor, and someone else, anyway! Thanks a lot, Mr. ‘What? Darth Vader is Luke’s FATHER?!’
If you only knew the POWER of the dark side……
If you only knew the POWER of the dark side……
I DO know the power of the Dark Side. How else you think I got these glowing red eyes? They’s not just so I can read stormwater manuals and/or cookbooks at night, if I should wake up and can’t reach the lamp. They’s ’cause I’m full of wickedness! And I have a dark hooded robe*! And I mutter grumpily and shoot lightning blasts from my fingers** at those who have aroused my displeasure!
*It’s terry-cloth. Bathrobe. I normally spurn it in favor of the light blue one with a bunny on the pocket.
**Okay, that part’s a lie. And it’s a good thing, or half of Washington state’s population would be blasted to smithereens within a matter of…oh, I don’t know….about half an hour, probably.
I normally spurn it in favor of the light blue one with a bunny on the pocket.
But that could still be an evil robe. Because maybe it’s a very wicked bunny, see, who plans on stealing everyone else’s carrots.
And it’s a good thing, or half of Washington state’s population would be blasted to smithereens within a matter of…oh, I don’t know….about half an hour, probably.
And then my hands would probably be tired, too tired to type. And there’d be no one left to make me a danish at the Bakery, or deliver beer and shoes. So I suppose it’s best after all that my Dark Powers are not yet fully developed.
Danggit…..I thought you were more Jedi than dark Lord, Oly.
I thought you were more Jedi than dark Lord, Oly.
Only if you’re a tree or a frog.
“And it’s a good thing, or half of Washington state’s population would be blasted to smithereens within a matter of…oh, I don’t know….about half an hour, probably”
Whoaaaaaa !
That’s IT Olygal! You better be nice, be very nice. I have “Family” experts , in the San Jaun’s ” that could somehow arrange to, how do you say ?…”tip your kayak over some dark and dreary night ”
Godfather mikey
?…”tip your kayak over some dark and dreary night ”
It’s not ‘dreary’ out there, only ‘dark’.
Say, are your ‘family’ made up of orcas? Yeah, they could get me. Sadly, though, orcas don’t come down this far south anymore. What a pity, huh?
Oh, wait, no, that’s NOT a pity. Jeeze, what AM I saying? I’m made of meat, that’s right. Sometimes I forget.
My kid and his G/F will be up there until the Fall. He’ll be an orca-bait-guide-resort gopher and she’ll be playing in rain with some sort of State Park youth program.
Why they decided to do this the middle of a recession is beyond me. They could have gone to visit his grandmother and paddled clean into Canada from her lake next to the BWCA without beating off big hungry black n’ white sharks:)
Bink, if I could reach through the Internetz and grab you by the…..well, let’s just say BE GLAD YOU ARE FAR, FAR AWAY FROM ME!
Hell hath no fury like a spoiler without a spoiler alert!
Not cool dude, not cool at all.
tell everyone what you thought of the movie “no way out” starring kevin costner.
http://www.southwest.com/
Man!!!!
Why did you have to say this!!! I still have not watched the final episode (in DVR waiting for me…).
You really spoiled the surprise.
Hey everyone there still is a lot of surprises in the series ending.
Now that BSG is over, what is a woman to do for a good fix of science fiction?
Dang, dang, dang.
That was one great show. I’m already having withdraw symptoms.
All you ones that watched the original BSG, did you catch the homage to the original series?
I hear Dollhouse is ok, but I’ve been boycotting TV for 2 years, haven’t seen it. (or the last seasons on BSG, no spoilers plz) There are plenty of older choices on DVD and netflix. (in order of awesome):
Farscape
Babylon 5 (if you can forgive the first season)
Firefly (This would be ranked higher if it were more than 1 season)
Cowboy Bebop (Anime, but great)
In terms of books, if you like military sci-fi / space opera I would suggest the Honerverse books by David Weber. They get somewhat repetitive and are a classic example of why war gamers aren’t always the best authors; but the characters are good.
Damnit, man, get out of my head!
Looove B5, Cowboy Bebop, Farscape and Firefly! Duuuude!
Wow….an unanticipated raw nerve sure got struck today.
I’m LMAO at this. I don’t think bink intended to ruin it for anyone, it looks like an honest mistake. I don’t watch much TV, much less Battlescarred Prophylactic, so I’m completely immune to such unwelcome surprises.
much less Battlescarred Prophylactic,
I’m going to forgive you for this, Mr. Grizzly. Most persons I’d find and k*ill you in this instance, just on principle, but you shall live.
but you shall live.
But don’t press me, my good man. For instance, don’t go ahead and now disrespect ‘Firefly’, or you’s gonna be a hearty stew, with potatoes, before you know it.
But she’s been DEAD for awhile.
Sorry about that guys!
But what Jim says is true, that wouldn’t be a spoiler to anyone anywhere near the last episode.
It’s the principle of the thing, though. You post *Spoiler Alert* before posting your spoiler. It’s simply good etiquette.
I am truly sorry and shouldn’t have said anything about it. I blame the depression of the show ending.
So now that I’ve permanently alienated all of my friends and acquaintances on the blog, is there a penance I should be subjected to?
A week of sitting through timeshare seminars?
Getting my real estate license?
I don’t watch much in the way of TV. Maybe I could start watching Lost or Heros and then after a month of Netflix when I’m 1-2 seasons in you could all post spoilers and destroy my enjoyment?
From what I hear of the latter seasons of those shows, I’d probably be suffering enough anyways.
I’m trying to repent!
Well…..if you let me call you “binky” or “The Binkster”, I might be willing to forgive you.
As for timeshare seminars: having sat through two of them in my life, and narrowly escaping without buying anything, it is my opinion that THAT personal hell should be reserved for worse offenses than telling me something I already knew, if I stopped to think about it.
P.S., Binky, I couldn’t explain ‘Lost’ to you even with a flowchart. It would look like a Rube Goldberg drawing.
I’ve been called far worse than binky or the binkster, believe me. Those don’t really get under my skin. Some people have call me blinky, like the ghost in pac man. That ones bugs me for reasons I haven’t quite figured out.
I could go without Cabernet or Indian food for a month. That would truly be suffering.
So now that I’ve permanently alienated all of my friends and acquaintances on the blog, is there a penance I should be subjected to?
I shall step up to this question, if I may. Now, normally I charge extra for this sort of service, Mr. Binky McHeedless, because it takes a long time to think up a good and suitable penance that satisfies all parties*, but in this case I shall graciously provide the service gratis. But not swiftly, because these things take time. You can’t just rush into a penance, obviously.
* One that shows you are really, truly, sincerely sorry, but one that doesn’t cause eternal damage— at least not physical damage— and that also evokes joy and satisfaction in the viewers and the judges, and that ALSO secretly satisfies the penitent, while yet being a warning.
‘Guilt is good, as long as it’s good’. That’s MY motto. Hahahaha!
I’m not a devoted fan of this show so I don’t think I should be in the punishment decision, but as an outsider I might suggest a very lenient punishment with a future obligation to buy a round of drinks at the next meeting he attends with Ben.
However, should you ever be so inept again I vote for the immediate shunning of you for at least a month! Get that bink? No comments like:
Bruce Willis is dead.
She is really a he.
Kevin Costner really is a Ruskie.
Sean Connery is defecting. (As all Russians with Scottish accents must.)
Old Yeller is a poorly disguised doggy snuff film.
Romeo and Juliet both croaked but only Tony gets it here.
Just make sure you don’t post anything like that in public and you should be fine.
Unfortunately, I’m only on season 3.
It’s all right, I’ll get over it. But, as mentioned, always post ***BSG - SPOILER ALERT*** before posting up anything that significant. I’ve been very careful to stay away from all BSG fan sites since I got into the series for this exact reason. 
Speaking of spoilers (I haven’t watched that season yet)…
A couple years or so after Titanic my SIL had still not seen the movie. She was talking one day about how she wanted to rent it; had always wanted to see it.
I’m not a big fan of the movie (despite my purse, I DON’T like most chick flicks) so I kind of sarcasticly said “the boat sinks, movie sucks.”
Well, obviously I assumed that was not a spoiler, but she got MAD. Asked why I ruined the movie for her. I was confused at first not understanding what I had said. I mean everyone knows the Titanic sunk in real life…right? Evidently everyone except my SIL. She had no idea. Was pissed all night at me for ruining the movie for her.
couple years or so after Titanic my SIL had still not seen the movie. She was talking one day about how she wanted to rent it; had always wanted to see it.
I’m not a big fan of the movie (despite my purse, I DON’T like most chick flicks) so I kind of sarcasticly said “the boat sinks, movie sucks.”
It’s interesting you should bring this up, because I only barely, in the last month, have decided that Leonardo DiCaprio is a real actor. Before this he was dead to me, based entirely on the ‘Titanic’ movie. I was like, ‘No’. *dismissive and definitive hand gesture*
NO! Fook, no!
See, I sat down in the theater with some pals and a very short while later I got up and marched out, and baybee, that was it for me, far as Leo goes. *shudder * Also, Kate Winslett is mostly dead to me.
But then, just on spec, about 2 weeks ago I watched ‘Blood Diamond’, and I found it acceptable, and then just a few days ago I watched ‘Body of Lies’ and found it good. Now, it’s been a hard 2 months for me, and I was tired and I bet also tipsy both times, so I’m more forgiving than normal, but to me, Leonardo DiCaprio has redeemed himself.
But that’s just me.
However, if I ever see him near a blue diamond necklace, then I’m gonna roll some skulls.
I also liked him in catch me if you can and romeo and juliet (I really liked that movie)
Exactly what my husband said, “The boat sank.” I don’t think that the Titanic is covered in many history classes though.
Yeah, I get that they don’t teach that, but the TItanic is one of the great stories of our civilization. Guess I figured its one of those things everyone over the age of about 10 knows.
Yeah, and even those who never heard the Titanic story, _probably_ have heard the phrase “re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic.” Can they not read between the lines???
Similarly, my grandpa jokes frequently about selling swampland in Florida. I didn’t know what that refers to until I found this blog.
China May Press G-20 to Guard Its U.S. Assets, Researcher Says
By Li Yanping
March 24 (Bloomberg) — China’s leaders may press at the Group of 20 summit for specific steps to protect its more than $1 trillion of dollar assets as U.S. fiscal policies risk sparking a “currency war,” a senior Chinese researcher said.
The dollar weakened after the Federal Reserve said March 18 it would buy as much as $300 billion of Treasuries and the U.S. this week outlined plans to buy as much as $1 trillion of illiquid bank assets.
U.S. purchases of Treasuries are “irresponsible” because they may weaken the dollar, Li Xiangyang, of the government- backed Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told a forum in Beijing today. “Chinese leaders are likely to articulate their concern to their U.S. counterparts strongly and ask for specific measures.”
President Barack Obama is relying on China to continue its purchases of Treasuries as the government seeks to fund a $787 billion stimulus package and a deficit this year forecast to reach $1.5 trillion. China’s President Hu Jintao is due to meet with his U.S. counterpart at the G-20 summit in London next week.
“China is a hostage,” said Andy Xie, an independent Shanghai-based analyst who was formerly Morgan Stanley’s chief Asia economist. “China is America’s bank and America basically says there’s nothing you can do to me. If I go down you don’t get paid.”
Treasuries have handed investors a loss of 1.6 percent in yuan terms this year, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.’s U.S. Treasury Master index.
China and the U.S.
We were friends. Then we had a really great party.
Then we woke up with an hangover, found ourselves in bed together.
And now we hate each other.
OMG, the HBB’s getting awfully personal. That sounds like me and my last significant other.
Or Ben blogging about last night.
“We were friends. Then we had a really great party.
Then we woke up with an hangover, found ourselves in bed together.”
Not always such a bad thing, IMHO.
Unless you wake up with “a gift that keeps on giving”
“China is America’s bank and America basically says there’s nothing you can do to me. If I go down you don’t get paid.”
They could always send some troops over to make sure the FBs keep paying the mortgage.
ROTFL
What is China going to do? If they do not buy treasuries, they must float their currency. Soon they will have to do that. Until then, what can they do?
The USA will not support another reserve currency. Nor will the Euro area. Who is left?
U.S. purchases of Treasuries are “irresponsible” because they may weaken the dollar,
It will. We’ll have import inflation and domestic deflation. Eventually that will drive some industry back to the USA.
The idea that China has not been hard hit by this is a joke. The BBC has done a phenominal job of tracing factory closures in China.
If China were to be smart, they would be dumping treasuries to buy anything of value (Concrete, steel, wood, drywall, nails, locamotives, etc.) and using those items to build and build quickly. They would then print money to put the millions of recently unemployed to work building their infrastructure. In particular, they need a better rail network to the port cities (passenger and freight).
Look at the MEW results from 4Q2008 (just out). Mortage equity withdrawl supported our import addiction. Now its T-bills. China can either spend their money to boost their economy and ours… or we can both go down together.
I really wonder if the current Fed policies are being rigged to ‘panic’ china into spending rather than saving…
Got Popcorn?
Neil
“Look at the MEW results from 4Q2008 (just out).”
What source do you use for this? Got a link you can post? Thanks.
The Chinese are indeed out buying resources and mines/mineral rights - at fire sale prices… $25B/month worth so far this year.
They’re gonna come out of the *ression in far better shape than we will, I think. The Chinese government is now pretty good at this capitalism thing. Their HR policies are… a bit less good, though.
This is scary. (My prediction), China wants to help the Americans, but they are just now seeing that their investment in T-Bills has more than a little risk. I think if China can recover 1 chinese dollar for every chinese 2 dollars invested in T-Bill, they will be lucky. Just like every ponzi game, the first to get out (before the run) will do OK.
I now think it is time to sell dollars. I bought some gold, but I just found that I can open a foreign savings account without traveling to that foreign country. I have been trying to do this for years and the banks have always told me they don’t support foreign accounts. Today my banker told me that he could help me open an account in London or China. (not in Dollars)
I know that most people here are looking to buy cheap houses, but I am so worried about run away inflation, that I now worry about survival. (Gold and Ammo?)
“………..buy anything of value……….”
Right……they should come over here and have the “Mother of all Shopping Sprees” at:
-Boeing (airliners)
-Caterpillar, John Deere (farm, earthmoving equipment)
-GM, Chrysler, Ford- (Locomotives, medium/light duty trucks, Buicks)
-The list could go on.
But they won’t…..because our mental-midget CEOs have exported enough manufacturing know-how (in pursuit of that oh-so-elusive “getting in on the ground floor of the Chinese/Indian consumer market). where we are competing against products that are 80-90% as good, but cost 80% less.
Especially when the actual market price doesn’t decrease that much………it just means more margin goes into the wholesaler/retailer’s pocket.
The only organization that I know that can pay twice as much for a product in order to get a 10-20% improvement in performance is the USAF.
“The only organization that I know that can pay twice as much for a product in order to get a 10-20% improvement in performance is the USAF.”
…and often that 10-20% determines if a kid will have a father at the end of the day.
Oh, but never mind…it’s hate the military time.
Don’t hate the military. Just stating a fact.
In the case of the F-22, that extra 20% is justified. Same with state of the art gear for those guys at the “tip of the spear”
But the fact remains that in a lot of cases, civilian gear is better than the military gear, at 25% the cost, and gets to the field in half the time.
The USAF doesn’t need that extra 20% at all. F-22 or F-5, it’s all the same when you’re fighting sheap herders with AKs. For the troops on the ground, better body armor might help against IEDs, so spend wisely there.
While I don’t necessarily disagree with you analysis Al, I’ll point out that there are ALOT more troops than F-22s.
There is no justification for any lives lost on our side. We can have our warriors sit in air conditioned warehouses full of terminals and drag and drop the bombs on the enemy. It’s 2009. Web 2.0, yo.
Jim,
That why I was saying spend wisely on the armor (and rifles, and NVGs, etc.) The USAF, they want planes to defeat planes that the USSR contemplated before they collapsed years ago. One less joint strike fighter means much more money for ground pounder gear.
V in VB,
Smart bombs from UAVs don’t stop children from being killed for going to school, boots on the ground might.
Sorry GSf, you obviously get it.
For others…don’t sit too much on your high horse and simply think that the rest of the world is not trying to catch us. If you’ve seen Top Gun, you’d realize that we got caught thinking EXACTLY the same thing prior to Vietnam (i.e., we’re in some kind of new paradigm, where we can ignore the old rules of war).
Take a few minutes to see what the Russians are up to. Unlike us, they still believe that a strong military is the TOP PRIORITY of their government and they are developing and perfecting hardware to that end. In the United States…the need for military strength lies somewhere between clean needles and condoms.
So, I’ll guess will have to learn our lesson again, thankfully it won’t be my kid having to pay.
I suggest that everyone read Mark Bowden’s article in last month’s “New Yorker” magazine regarding this subject. Especially the commentary about the F-15 losing it’s qualitative advantages vs. older Soviet fighters that
have been rebuilt with new electronics and armed with the latest generation of air-to-air missles.
Our whole military structure is based on the USA “owning the skies” (and now, space). Everything we do with our armed forces would become a lot harder/more expensive (lives/equipment/money) if we didn’t.
Everyone forgets that the Russians had a lot firmer grip on Afghanistan before we started supplying Stinger missles to the mujahadeen (to take out the Mi-24 helicopter gunships). The Stingers raised the price of “doing business” in Afghanistan so high for the Russians, that the cost exceeded the benefits.
The next war will be RC controlled robots. The one after that will be semi-autonomous. The US Air force is already buying more drones than anything else. This one is trivial to predict.
– w
No Neil,
When China gets smarter they will take the reserves and buy companies in the USA; and money flowing back in will alievate the crisis.
Hopefuly this will allow goods to flow back into China.
They really ought to start spending those reserves.
A friend’s father is in the business of negotiating either:
1. The purchase of companies or
2. The purchase of product from them.
During Times of idle capacity, some companies would be worth buying (mines), while others it would be better economics to buy the finished goods (concrete, locamotives).
Oh, China should really start spending those reserves. Its their own throat that they are cutting…
Now if they were smart, they would buy stock in CAT, then launch a big order. Sell the stock and rinse, cycle, and repeat.
In three years China could redirect their economy and ours.
Or… they can hold T-bills and watch all of us go down.
Their internal system is much more screwed up than ours. With as much as world trade has contracted, there is no way China would not be on the losing end.
Let’s just say Pheonix and Las Vegas are the two US cities that show what happens when you are all out on growth and then it stops. e.g., 25% of China’s steel consumption was to build more steel mills!
Its estimated that between China, Korea, and Japan two million earn their living making ships. I would imagine that number is dropping quickly.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
We do have some other good products here. Education being one of them.
China would do themselves a lot of good, if they sponsored 500,000 students to train as doctors. They have no health care systems.
They also need better infastructure that we could help them engineer for electrical power delivery. That would help get them away from using coal for heat and all the health problems that is causing.
Heck, you can sift around and find all sorts of things that would help China and the US in the long run.
Anyhow. I expect O to mess this up with help from Hillary/Rham & company. Unfortunatly O seems to be as clueless as Bush.
Ain’t that the truth. Should have wasted my vote on Kucinich or something.
“We do have some other good products here. Education being one of them.”
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHHH!
Oh stop, (gasp), stop! I’m laughing so hard it hurts! Oh!
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHH!
You might be right. From Zhou Xiaochuan’s 3/24 speech, On Savings Ratio:
“The Chinese authorities have a clear policy intention to reduce savings ratio. Since 2005, boosting domestic demand and encouraging consumption have been important components of the national economic policies. These policies would eventually bring down the savings ratio.”
“…appropriate measures should be taken to channel more savings into developing countries and emerging markets.”
Chinese drywall? The toxic stuff that eats all the metal in your house?
“Treasuries have handed investors a loss of 1.6 percent in yuan terms this year, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.’s U.S. Treasury Master index.”
Consider any losses payback for artificially pegging the yuan to the dollar and costing America millions of productive manufacturing jobs.
Rehab centers see bankers driven to drink…
NEW CANAAN, Connecticut (Reuters) - Cocaine and martinis On Wall Street? Nothing new there. Masters of the Universe admitting they have an alcohol problem? Not so common.
Experts say more and more people in finance are seeking treatment for addiction as the global economic crisis sinks its teeth into a high-stakes industry where confidence is the name of the game and nobody wants to admit to a weakness.
“We absolutely do see more people coming in naming either a job loss or huge financial reversals or big investments with Bernie Madoff,” said Sigurd Ackerman, medical director at Silver Hill Hospital rehabilitation facility in New Canaan, Connecticut.
“They’re being admitted with depression or increases in substance abuse, or both.”
Ackerman said there was a high concentration of financial professionals in the town, 40 miles from New York, whose main streets are lined with high-end boutiques catering to the well-heeled wives of hedge fund managers and bankers.
“You’re supposed to be a master of the universe, you’re supposed to be on top of everything,” said one financial services executive who began alcohol rehab in August.
“There’s not a lot of sensitivity training or meetings where you sit around and ask how everyone is feeling,” said the Connecticut executive, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “No one walks around saying ‘I feel your pain.’”
Alcohol has long oiled the wheels of commerce on Wall Street, where bankers working long hours will entertain clients over dinner and drinks, or let off steam at late-night clubs with hard liquor and drugs.
Robert Curry, founder of Turning Point for Leaders, a coaching and consulting firm in New Canaan that creates treatment programs for senior executives, said the financial crisis was a factor in more drink and drug use.
“We’ve got more than 50 homes in foreclosure in this town and that’s unheard of,” Curry said. “Domestic violence incidents have spiked, and that is very closely tied to substance abuse.”
“Experts say more and more people in finance are seeking treatment for addiction as the global economic crisis sinks its teeth into a high-stakes industry where confidence is the name of the game and nobody wants to admit to a weakness.”
Recommended treatment plan:
1) Immediately send Ben $50 to buy one of those cool HBB T-shirts.
2) Replace your substance addiction with blog addiction. It is much more informative than alcohol and controlled substance imbibement and does not kill brain cells (at least so far as I am aware).
“does not kill brain cells”
Obviously you didn’t attend the HHB Conference in Las Vegas.
Test
I recommend going to the old office building where you used to work.
Taking an elevator ride to the top floor.
And, jumping off.
I second that.
“We absolutely do see more people coming in naming either a job loss or huge financial reversals or big investments with Bernie Madoff,”
Yea… finding out you lost your shirt with Bernie might be cause one to finally sobber up. I can see it now…
“I’m Joe, an alchoholic”
“Hi Joe!”
“Its been six weeks since I had a drink or invested with Maddoff”
*applause*
“We’ve got more than 50 homes in foreclosure in this town and that’s unheard of,” Because New Canaan is different…
Got Popcorn?
Neil
The main problem is, they simply can no longer afford their habits. Good booze is pricey! And let’s face it: malt liquor is not glamorous. And cocaine… well. You’ll have to switch to the crack if you wanna’ fuel that beast. Yeah, hitting bottom sucks.
You can support a helacious blow habit with those bonus checks.
So, the “Masters of the Universe” have been making all these decisions while in a alcohol and/or cocaine induced stupor.
If the airplane business was run the same way, we’d be driving a jumbo jet full of passengers into the ground every other week. So we have mandatory drug testing in the airline/air charter business.
Maybe we should mandate Mandatory Drug Testing for anybody making decisions concerning Other People’s Money.
Yeah, ’cause the airline business is evidently doing much better than the financial industries.
The airline business would make a lot more money, if they chose to cut corners on unneccesary stuff, like maintaining the equipment, training, and throwing all the experienced help under the bus, in favor of uncertificated newbies.
After all, who would notice an extra 5-600 charred, mutilated bodies every few weeks? All it would take is for the bean counters to calculate that it would be cheaper to let “X” number of airplanes crash, vs. what it would take to do what they should be doing.
Half of the Federal Aviation Regulations were written, because someone in the past tried to cut corners, and ended up putting a smoking hole in the ground.
X-GS,
Don’t laugh, I’ve advocated that for years. If that means more of “our best and brightest” go packing, so be it. I’ll take sober mediocre people over “brilliant” crackheads any day of the week.
It’s been my experience, being able to observe several businesses, that:
-10-15% of the workforce are the real “sharp tools” (are excellent at anything they do)
-70% can pull their own weight at everything, and are really good at a few things.
-10-15% just take places in the headcount; if you are lucky, your “sharp tools” don’t spend all their time working at correcting/catching up on the FUBARs this bunch creates.
I don’t think anyone begrudges truly “brilliant” people who exercise sound judgement being paid accordingly. The problem with Wall Street is that we as a country have to pay a fortune for mediocre decision-making.
X-GSfixer,
Pretty… much my assessment only I generally consider it in a narrower range? I suppose more broadly looking at life in general. 90% of us -are- average ( hence the term a-v-e-r-a-g-e )
The way that I measured myself was; did anyone have to go in after me and totally re-do anything I was -ever- assigned to do? One civilian employer I had only needed to re-do (1) thing I’d touched in over a three year period.
It was about a $20 mistake. Still, I never really considered myself “exceptional” by any means? I just felt that ’should’ have been the average. IMHO.
Tech-wise, I’m one of the 70%. Some of this new “sparkie” crap confuses me. Took a while to figure out that Honeywell and RockwellCollins don’t even speak the same language (just start talking about “Symbol Generators” to a RockwellCollins rep, for example).
My expertise is in:
-Knowing who to talk to/call to address a specific problem, and accurately describing the problem.
-Knowing what questions to ask, to get an idea of how long/how much money it takes to solve a specific problem.
-Protecting/keeping my sources confidential, so they trust me to let me know what they know/suspect, vs. getting the “official/P.R./lawyer”version.
-Coming up with a recommmendation for a plan, (depending on if time or money savings is the priority), and being able to communicate this to non-technical people in plain English.
-Prioritizing problems.
-Assigning the right people to the right project.
I’ve saved this client probabably a half million bucks in the past 5 years, just by having a fully calibrated
“B.S. Detector”. Not that I’ve every seen any payback for it in my paycheck…….
I WANT a Zero Defects Worksheet, a rear window emergency EXIT seat, a Valium and 3 drinks when I fly.
Oh yeah…and NO 24 year OLD pilots !
“How far will that other engine take us????????”
“All the way to the scene of the crash………which is pretty handy, because that’s where we’re heading…..”
That guy cracks me up……..
THIS has always been why I am against drug testing the way its done today.
You NEVER randomly dug test an executive, Yet that coked up VP can steal 100…1000 times more then the guy on the loading dock.
And of course a coked up VP never gets “fired”
When the drug testing mandate came down from the Feds, we said “Okay, as long as you do the same random screening on the guys that passed the law mandating it” (iow, Congress)
You can guess how far that proposal went…….”Do as we say, not as we do……”
But, but, they would all get false positives off that morning poppy seed bagel…
Yeah those guys and gals at BS GS ML our masters of the universe would have all be fired if they had drug testing at the investment banks.
I did many a drunken drugged out after work boat cruises out of the Battery Park WFC Marina 3-10 years ago.
And they treated the help like sheeeeeeeeeeeit! Unless you wanted to share their nose candy………
“So, the “Masters of the Universe” have been making all these decisions while in a alcohol and/or cocaine induced stupor.”
That’s okay. The sheeple have been out here in flyover country buying stuff while wired on SBux too. Makes you feel soooo much more positive!
Quote of the week:
“Liquidity trap equilibria that are not (long run) rational expectations equilibria can exist if and for as long as the private sector has incorrect but irrefutable expectations that the monetary authorities will ultimately reverse, in present value, any current expansion of the monetary base. If ‘quantitative easing’ is never reversed, in present value terms, and never expected to be reversed, liquidity trap equilibria cannot occur.”
So, Bernake reads this and say, “Oh Yeah?! Let’s see who blinks first.”
Here’s the full quote:
“…government fiat money is an asset of the holder (the private
sector) but not a liability of the issuer (the state). Money is ‘net wealth’ in the limited sense that, after consolidation of the intertemporal budget constraints of the private and public sectors, the present value of the terminal money stock remains a component of comprehensive household wealth. The issuance of irredeemable fiat money can therefore affect consumption demand through a
weak ‘real balance or Pigou effect’, if it can alter the present value of the terminal stock of money. With irredeemable fiat money, weak restrictions on the monetary policy rule suffice to rule out liquidity trap equilibria (that is, equilibria in which all current and future short nominal interest rates are at their lower bound) that are also rational expectations equilibria. Liquidity trap equilibria that are not (long run) rational expectations equilibria can exist if and for as long as the private sector has incorrect but irrefutable expectations that the monetary authorities will ultimately reverse, in present value, any current expansion of the monetary base. If ‘quantitative easing’ is never reversed, in present value terms, and never expected to be reversed, liquidity trap equilibria cannot occur.”
I like the part about “government fiat money is an asset of the holder (the private sector) but not a liability of the issuer (the state).”
Had to look up that “Pigou effect”
Wiki: “The Pigou effect is an economics term that refers to the stimulation of output and employment caused by increasing consumption due to a rise in real balances of wealth, particularly during deflation.”
p.s. After trying to educate myself for some weeks, I now know that economist can not even agree what money is; much less what to do in any emergency.
Not knocking it, I may be learning something.
On that “Pigou effect” yes, I’ve felt richer during deflation, but haven’t spent; however, others here bought a Porsche, so it seems like a real phenomena.
On that “Pigou effect” yes, I’ve felt richer during deflation, but haven’t spent; however, others here bought a Porsche, so it seems like a real phenomena.
I haven’t spent anything, either. I can’t think of anything I want to buy. Oh, wait, they had a super sale on meat the other day, and I loaded up on rib-eyes and such and ate like you wouldn’t believe. At least one cow’s worth. And that was just the first night of the sale.
Oh, and I do want a motorcycle, but I’m going to wait for a reallllll bargain.
I was hoping to get one this winter, ’cause that’s the season to shop for boats and bikes, when it’s been raining for 4 freakin’ months and everyone here forgets what the sun is, let alone that it will return, and I DID get another kayak right before Christmas—incredible deal— but no motorcycle yet. But I’m not in a huge rush. I just say to myself, ‘Hey, that’s yet another week without your precious brains smeared all along the gravel like pink oatmeal because some 70 year old granma ran over ya on her way to the yarn-store.’
That cheers me up and keeps me patient.
That’s why you need to get a helmet, Oly. The downside of wearing one is having your fluffy hair squished. But it’s soooo much better than pink-oatmeal-on-the-pavement for brains.
There’s a reason why ER personnel refer to helmetless motorcyclists as “organ donors”.
Olygal, watch out with dangerous pastimes, because you could be condemning your Doppelgänger to a noisome end!
See, you and your Doppelgänger are what we physicists like to call “entangled”. Entangled entities are subject to Einstein’s “spooky action at a distance.” Now, should you kick your already buzzing probability cloud up a notch by, for example, eating pufferfish you prepared yourself or hangliding, you could force a “collapse of the wave function,” leaving one of you living, and one of you, like Herr Doktor Schrödinger’s unfortunate (or was it?) cat quite, quite dead.
How do I know you have a Doppelgänger? Why, just the other day I pulled up behind a car with the sticker “TOADALLY CRAZY/FROG LADY”.
I’d love to motorcycle on the West coast!
Now, Elanor is correct, your precious bodily fluids must be protected.
“It’s incredibly obvious, isn’t it? A foreign substance is introduced into our precious bodily fluids without the knowledge of the individual. Certainly without any choice. That’s the way your hard-core Commie works.”
From experience, I add gloves, jeans, boots and long sleeve shirts.
I’m riding to the Keys this weekend.
Yes, I know this must make many here envious [smirks]
(buy the motorcycle and helmet. Get the rest of the stuff, garage sale will do. Oh, and something funky, 60s something)
“everyone here forgets what the sun is, let alone that it will return”
Not funny!!! One of my secret fears is that the PNW will “toggle” over to a perma-dreary state from which there is no return?!
It seems like -every- spring we flirt with it.
“How do I know you have a Doppelgänger? Why, just the other day I pulled up behind a car with the sticker “TOADALLY CRAZY/FROG LADY.”
Holy sh*t Batman!
That’s awesome dude!
I keep getting the itch to buy a bike and learn to ride.
But then I run into someone that tells me about some acquaintance that is really messed up, dut to a bike crash.
My former Avionics crew chief had an old guy pull out in front of him (the old guys third accident, pulling out in front of someone on a bike)
Laid the bike down before impacting the car; no head injuries, but trashed both legs, including busting both hip sockets off in his pelvis….hip replacement surgury X 3 (one didn’t heal right, had to be redone), out of work and in rehab for almost two years. I’m too old for that crap.
The same stupid people making stupid financial and personal decisions are the same people out there making stupid driving decisions while yakking on cellphones.
Yeah, I sit at home, staring out the window a lot……
“From experience, I add gloves, jeans, boots and long sleeve shirts.”
Emphatic yes to the boots and gloves; huge negatory on the jeans though! Your average pair of jeans will disintegrate at the contact points after about 5-to-6 feet in a slide, and the rest of your 100-foot slide will be on skin. Yes, I am speaking from experience.
Leather is amazingly durable. Your skin is too, surprisingly enough, but it will hurt like a mother while it is proving to you just how durable it is. Choose the leather. Or synthetic with armor.
Good gear is worth far more than you will pay for it. And it’s not a matter of if you go down, but when; I used to think that statement was hyperbole too when I heard it from other riders, being a life-long rider and considering myself pretty alert and capable. But there are crazy people out there, and they are trying to kill you. No matter how alert and defensive you are, there are windows of vulnerability that you cannot entirely close.
A well-fitting helmet is absolutely essential; the ability to recall it bouncing on the pavement is truly priceless.
Loves the “TOADLY CRAZY/FROG LADY” sticker for Oly and would would image she still needs a helmet just to run around her house and play on a computer
X-GSfixer,
Don’t give up that dream man! According to most “hog enthusiasts” etc. ( I’m not much of a “biker” ) And I couldn’t have cared less!
What a lot of people don’t realize is that much of the fun actually occurs below 30 m.p.h. Certainly below 55. You can see without your eyes watering and can wave to chicks etc!
“Good gear is worth far more than you will pay for it. And it’s not a matter of if you go down, but when…”
There are only two types of riders- those who have crashed hard, and those who will. I grew up riding dirtbikes, and it’s painful. I’ve thought of getting a streetbike, but I’ve had so many friends seriously hurt that I’ve managed to keep the urge at bay. I don’t have kids, so I’m more inclined to go for it.
One guy I know was riding up the Mt. Rose Hwy on the way to Tahoe, hit some sand, slid into oncoming traffic, and had his leg severed off at the knee. He doesn’t ride anymore. Another rear ended a car in LA, and flew over three more into the intersection, quickly getting to his feet to narrowly avoid an oncoming bus which would have rendered him unrecognizable. He’s back in the saddle after several years of abstinence. I played pool with another guy one evening, only to hear the next day from a mutual friend that he was no longer with us- killed on the way home as somebody ran a light and T-boned him. There are many, many more tales or roadrash.
Prime is contained said:
Choose the leather. Or synthetic with armor.
Amen to that.
The amount of eedjits I see screaming along the carpool lane of the 405 every day - wearing shorts, tennis shoes and t-shirts - is really astounding.
But, of course they’re Safety Conscious because they’re wearing a full face helmet….. eedjits, I tell you.
Leathers and boots are kinky. Even if you’re only in halfway decent shape they make you look…good.
Personally, I like leather trousers reinforced at the hip and knee with a big clunky pair of Motocross boots.
Makes me fell a little like a long-in-the-tooth Tank Girl.
Not the stupid movie Tank Girl, but the pukka, kick-arse ‘2000 AD‘/ Jamie Hewlett - “I drew my own fantasy” - Tank Girl.
Anyway, I digress - but please don’t wear steel-capped boots, they’ll do really horrible things to you toes if the tip of your boot gets jammed back too fast (fairly common when falling off a bike).
Oh, and Happy Birthday Ben!
Bikers come through here on the way to Sturgis every year and I really feel sorry for them all suited up in their leathers, sitting at a long stoplight on US 93 in the heat. Lordy.
DinOR
I’m not a HOG guy, I’d be more inclined to buy a Hayabusa (hey, if you’re going to kill yourself on a bike, kill yourself GOOD!)
But, like a 400lb. female in a thong, I would look pretty silly riding a Hayabusa.
So, I have opted not to inflict that vision on the public.
Everything that’s been shared is all true. I’ve seen more than my share of this stuff and have even had a steel toe boot cut off ( *not fun )
Yet I still don’t have any problems with putting around town at speeds good bicyclists should be able to do! If you’re going around town like you have a sidecar on, and barely go over 35 or 40 you can have plenty of fun. At those speeds you shouldn’t have any more serious injuries than Lance Armstrong the other day.
Hey, this is sooooo much more than just a housing bubble blog, huh huh huh!
Anyway, this is a subject I have pondered muchly.
I had a bullet bike in college, in Utarr, and I would ride it around in summer, and I didn’t wear much, jeans cut-offs and a t-shirt and sandals and a pair of goggles, of course–and let the flaming begin on my clothing choices, except I won’t listen, so don’t bother— and I certainly did NOT wear a big ole’ heavy thing on my head, but I always knew that I was risking getting either really dead or, even worse, really ugly, but on the other hand, I rode mostly in the remote red-rocks wilderness, on long straight stretches of silent parched skinny pavement strips under a huge blue bowl of sky. There was nothing there but some sagebrush and heat shimmers over the silent wastelands stretching off to forever. Out there you could open up and REALLY get going! With your hair whipping behind you madly, and the hot air burning on your face! It was like flying!
Which it would not have been like if I was all bundled up. Then it would have been like being a bundled-up ball of oven-mitts getting sweaty and slowly cooking. What’s the fun of that?
Anyway, that’s in the past.
*waves hands dismissively *
Nowadays I’m more sedate. For one thing, I live here in WA now, and they take their helmet laws very seriously, so I would have no choice but to wear a clunky noggin-occluding thing, and I don’t live in the far off wilderness anymore, so there’s plenty of grandmas to run me down.
All things to think about, I suppose.
(It was like flying!…)
(It was like flying!…)
Sorry, everyone. I got carried away with remembrances. For a minute there I was going to go get a motorcycle no matter what, even if it wasn’t a bargain. Good thing I came to my senses and remembered that I don’t like gravel and handlebars inside my skull.
Just remember, it’s not the speed that kills, it’s the rate of deceleration.
In all seriousness, anticipation is key. Intersections and cars pulling out of side street account for something like 70% of motorcycle accidents. So these are areas to be especially careful in.
The most stupidlooking person I ever saw on a morotrcycle was a young woman in a short skirt and heels.Don’t see how she managed to ride at all.
Breaking news: red meat consumption reduces lifespan:
Updated: 03/24/2009 01:15:42 AM MDT
WASHINGTON — Eating red meat increases the chances of dying prematurely, according to a large federal study that offers powerful evidence that a diet that regularly includes steaks, burgers and pork chops is hazardous to your health.
The study of more than 500,000 middle-aged and elderly Americans found that those who consumed the equivalent of about a small hamburger every day — a quarter-pound of red meat — were more than 30 percent more likely to die during the 10 years they were followed, mostly from heart disease and cancer.
Vegans who keep lecturing me about the hazards of eating red meat also run the risk of “dying prematurely”
Breaking news: red meat consumption reduces lifespan:
Shoots, IIIIIII don’t care! ‘Not a gator’ says I got a Doppelganger, so THEY can just go ahead and die prematurely. Hahahahah!
That’d put ‘em out of their misery, anyhow, since they are surely tremendously scarred up and probably have to carry their liver around in a wheelbarrow. Thank you, dear, darling, precious ‘Dorian Gray’ Doppelganger.
Hey! Speaking of, where be my flask? And where be my 5 pounds of rib-eye marinating in beer and a delightful little herb and spice rub I came up with last night? Oh, yeah, home in the fridge, eagerly waiting for me…
But still, where be my flask?!
*pats self with increasing urgency *
Flask! Flask!? Flaaaaaaask….!
“……5 pounds of rib-eye…..”
Preferably, purchased from a REAL butcher shop, vs. those so-called “steaks” they sell at most of the chain groceries.
Buy ‘em sliced at least 1 inch thick, rub with a little Kosher Salt and coarse pepper, and brushed with extra-virgin Olive Oil when on the grill.
Preferably, purchased from a REAL butcher shop, vs. those so-called “steaks” they sell at most of the chain groceries.
That’s the joy of knowing ag producers. And it’s about the ONLY joy, lately, because those overall-ed retar*ds are really starting to piss me off. (reference the weekend conversation about riparian corridors, poo*p-buckets vs.compost, and my poor little feets).
Anyway, yar.
Great. Big. Slabs! All sizzley!
My wife asks, Why not prime rib?
(She likes fattier cuts. No accounting for taste.)
I like the Morningstar farms spicy black bean burger and other products of theirs. It’s 4 grams of fat. A Carl’s Junior six dollar burger is about 70 grams fo fat. I still like Carl’s Jr. But I eat it sparingly. The Morningstar Farms goes far to satisfy my red meat craving.
Mmmmm, donuts!
Mine are missing? Oly?
So they ought be called ‘Pigou Men’?
English please?
Bernake has one revolver.
He put’s revolver in mouth.
You smile.
He smirks and opens up trench coat which reveals bundles of dynamite all wired to a trigger on his right hand that he has already pushed.
If he releases button, you are both splattered.
He says, “start spending that money or I blow my head off.”
You think, “nah he won’t do it.”
He takes gun out of mouth and shoots himself in the shoulder.
Waits until nozzle cools slightly, puts nozzle back deep into throat.
You notice this deep coldness in your stomach, you feel like throwing up.
You start sweating.
Thank you. Much better.
The other part is that you can trade your federal reserve notes for federal reserve notes, the government doesn’t sweat this.
(The first part really has to do with wmbz post on China and the FED buying T-Bills.)
Bernake has one revolver.
He put’s revolver in mouth.
You smile.
I stopped listening after this part, because this was the part I liked best.
I like the part about “government fiat money is an asset of the holder (the private sector) but not a liability of the issuer (the state).”
I’m not sure that this is really true. After all, we pay taxes to, and receive benefits from the state. Even if the decisions on how much to pay for what are made in aggreate, rather than by individuals, money does, at some level represent a claim on future government services: I expect the governemnt to provide me with highways, and courts, and peace.
You can’t redeem tour Federal Reserve notes for anything other than other Federal reserve notes at the bank.
They are not going to redeem them for silver or for a promise to build a road at the bank.
You can put the notes in the bank. The bank will then create an account for you and debit this account as a final settlement against those that have a claim against you for services rendered or goods delivered.
The government does not have to exchange your notes for anything; therefore, no liability.
___
I guess the key to your argument is this: “money does, at some level represent a claim on future government services.”
Key word “future.”
Here’s what the author replies:
“The government does not view its monetary debt as a liability that will eventually have to be redeemed for something else of equal value.”
I think PB and FPSS have made this statement many times.
In the first chapter of Schiff’s Crashproof, he says, “There is also speculation that reserve currency status might be transferred to the euro to to a combination of foreign currencies. …the U.S. Dollar’s status as a reserve currency immune from market pressures cannot last indefinitely. When it ends, all those surplus dollars will come to roost, creating hyperinflation domestically.”
In his 3/23 speech by China’s central bank governor entitled, “Reform the International Monetary System” he writes, “The desirable goal of reforming the international monetary system, therefore, is to create an international reserve currency that is disconnected from individual nations and is able to remain stable in the long run, thus removing the inherent deficiencies caused by using credit-based national currencies. ”
Here’s a link to the whole speech:
http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/detail.asp?col=6500&id=178
Fasten your seat belts. It’s going to be a bumpy night.
There’s a crazy kook of a Real-Turd over on marketwatch who spams every comment section with this propaganda….
Man why is Marketwatch Web site so full of people who are not home owners, who are renters and they are hoping for home prices to go down further so that they can afford to buy a house!
Not realizing that if home prices go down that means economy doing badly and they will not have a Job to even pay their Rents set aside afford to Buy a home.
With that said this is the BEST time to buy a house, considering these facts:
1- We have 2 choice for living, either you Rent a home /flat or you Buy
2- You rent, you will loose 100% of your money 100% of time with 100% certainty
3- You buy, you may loose money in the short term but you will make money with 100% certainty in the long term
4- Interest rates will NEVER be this low again
After all consider if there is a house for $500K which you can rent, lets say at low rental rate of $2500 per month.
This means if you rented this house for 5 years, you would have paid $150,000 in rent which is money that is totally and absolutely gone.
If you rented this house for 30 years this means $900,000 in Rent you paid which money you will loose 100% of it with 100% certainty. Now what do you think would have happened to the price of this house after 30 years? It will have at least Tripled if not much more. But lets say this house stayed the same price after 30 years, you would have $500,000 in equity as owner vs ZERO as renter.
http://tinyurl.com/d9cyc7
-Every- comment? Whoa, that’s dumb enough just once.
I just love the self-serving language realtwhores use. S/he will gladly provide you a scenario that plays out just peachy ( provided you stay put for 30 years ) so I was just wondering if she could provide you w/ a guaranteed JOB for those 30 years of feeding the Debt God?
This is so stupid on so many levels.
For starters, how many people are going to be able to (or want to) stay planted in one spot for THIRTY YEARS?
Ah, the familiar choppy grammar of the immigrant real estate agent. It reads like all the flyers I find tucked in our mailboxes each week. Can’t make it here and the old country doesn’t want them back.
Well I’m amused by the unstated assumption that losing 100% of ones rent is worse than losing ~80% of your mortgage payment. Especially since rents are still lower than mortgage payments in much of the country.
Not to mention what you could do with that $50K-!00K down payment in 30 years, if invested wisely. Or even semi-wisely.
Plus the taxes….plus the upkeep……plus the “improvements” needed to “keep up your investment”. Plus your time……..plus, plus, plus…….
Nothing kills your income generating potential more than marrying a momma’s girl/boy who wants to stay “close to home”, unless it’s being married to same AND owning a house.
GM was a good investment at one time. Not so much today.
The taxes get rolled into the rent generally. To think somehow that you totally avoid any other fees in renting is incorrect. I know where I’m at rents are finally starting to back down, but they increased very very heavily during the boom.
Much of this I believe is to blame on the Military as they kept increasing the housing allowances, and the slumlords moved their rents in step with this.
Much of this I believe is to blame on the Military as they kept increasing the housing allowances, and the slumlords moved their rents in step with this.
Min. wage went up this year in Fla. and SSI went up as well. I’m sure the slumlords were salivating. But–oops–they overbuilt and are now stomping all over each other trying to woo a shrinking renting pool. BWAHAHAHAHAHA!! Couldn’t happen to better people.
Well yes, which is arguably WHY we have a mortgage interest deduction: since landlords get to deduct their interest as a business dededuction, it evens the playing field to allow you to do so as well.
I like the assumption that your choice is to either buy now or never buy in the next 30 years. I guess waiting a few years to buy is not an option?
So, right now I could buy a place and pay $4500 / month in interest and taxes or I can rent the same place for $2500. We are currently in a deflationary period for housing prices so it is not inconceivable (I would say highly probable) that the house will continue to decline in value. It seems like a no-brainer to me.
And, is there anything in what she said that would not apply to the market as it was two years ago? (Maybe rates.) Would she argue that buying two years ago would have been a good move and if not how would she justify that position based on what she is writing?
The Spire may rise after all:
The Chicago Tribune reports:
Union pension fund to finance construction of the Spire
The AFL-CIO’s Housing Investment Trusts are meeting with Shelbourne on Tuesday for preliminary discussions. It could be a win-win for both sides, with the developer getting the building, and the union securing jobs.
I will glady pay you Tuesday for the job you give me today.
Dang. I so wanted that site to be turned into an urban quarry.
Naw… this was discussed on these boards some time back. I thought we were saving it in case we get the Olympics. Just add water!
Yes, I recall your good plans, Elanor. You proposed that the big quarry be filled with water and tickets be charged for scuba-divers, and then a bunch of 1930’s gangster cars, with left-over gangsters in them, be placed in a picturesque fashion, so divers could enjoy the Chicago gangsta experience, and also I think something about sinking the Bulls’ NBA trophies, to provide treasure hunting joy? And something about ducks…?
Hmmm.
That was when I first knowed you was a woman of tremendous vision. And I thought inside my head ‘Wow. Keep an eye on this person. Especially if she’s ever behind you.’
AFL-CIO: Not Afraid To Waste Your Dues Money (Even If It Hurts)
The unions need to clean house. Then again, so do the gov’t and business. I’m not sure this deflation is great enough for that.
Shelbourne still owes Santiago Calatrava $11.3 million for unpaid work, and architects-of-record Perkins & Will $4.85 million. Both filed liens last October.
I’ll bet Shelbourne has some other unpaid bills as well — like the tax bill on the five parcels of land that make up the property.
The AFL-CIO really wants to cover all that upfront?
I think they’re looking for hi-viz success stories at this point. They wouldn’t stretch like this to make sure some warehouse or strip mall gets built. It would also get these unions a marker with da mayor, since he’d love to see this built.
I was up late last night paging through yesterday’s bits bucket and saw that ET_Chicago called me out on the Spire.
This is yet more proof that something will be built on that fancy super-duper foundation
I still have no position on whether it is a profitable enterprise or a giant boondoggle, simply that something will be built.
Speaking of highrise boondoggles, I believe my quest to find a bigger apartment are over! I have found a “penthouse” unit that meets my specifications. Upon looking up the owner’s finances, I discovered that they bought the place for a little more than $1,000,000 about 6 years ago. And paid cash. The unit was renovated a few years ago and yet again they paid cash. Not a single mortgage or home equity loan or lien has been recorded since the deed was recorded. Their asking price is $3000 a month - how’s that for a rent multiple!?! Hahaha; at least there’s no chance at all of having to deal with a foreclosure - this thing is (barely) cash flow positive once they pay the assessment and taxes.
Hey Brian, you may very well be right about that foundation — as Edgewaterjohn mentioned, it’s a high-visibility project with high-visibility names and a high-visibility location. I wouldn’t want to be the guy to wrassle that particular herd of cats, though. It has Multi-Million Dollar Boondoggle written all over it.
(Good luck with the dreamy penthouse, BTW.)
Help! I’ve been wanting a house since 2004. I live in S. Florida where prices have dropped significantly, but it’s still expensive. Interest rates are really low, and I pre-qualify for 4.75%.
I need you help to remind me why its a bad time to buy. I rent for 1150.00 and any house with taxes and ins will be 2000+, but it will always be 2000+.
Will inflation get so bad due to this idiot administrations actions that buying now is actually wise?
What area of south Florida?
FYI I track a few areas around there - and what I see, at least with regards to median prices, is that they’re still high relative to historic norms. E.g. Sarasota/Bradenton median is at about $160k, but inflation-adjusted prices from the mid-1990’s say they should be about $130k.
That and I’m quite sure prices will overshoot, and probably by a lot. They’re plummeting still. They will go under inflation-adjusted values.
Keep your pants on. Give it about 2 more years.
And don’t worry about baby-boomers driving up prices. They won’t be retiring anytime soon.
the reaon you should not buy a home in florida is in your name.
I caught that name also michael. Make you wonder why this person wants to buy in FL
I used this name years ago and just stuck with it on this site. At the time I was sick of florida. The boom was on and a lot of things here were just lousy. But my job is here and given the state of the economy and this job market, I’d rather hang on to it then try to find something else.
“I rent for 1150.00 and any house with taxes and ins will be 2000+”
There you go.
Don’t forget maintenance and the privilege of having those hassles to yourself.
And your 2000 will not always be 2000 unless your taxes and insurance never go up. How often does that happen???
So your name is SickofFlorida. Then you tell us you want to buy in Florida. You explain to us that you know prices are still out of whack. But you need an answer from people you don’t even know for a question you already answered. And then for good measure you call the administration idiots.
Where do I start?
bananarepublic,
Oh, Oh, oh, I know the answer. Let me think real hard here. I got it. I would start with the name of SickofFlorida.
Do I get a replica of the battlestar Galactica?
Or perhaps it should be “SickofRENTINGinFL”?
Hey, I understand. Bubble-sitting is no easy gig. There are only a handful of d-e-d-i-c-a-t-e-d rentals in anyone’s target area and price range. ( The rest of it is “in play” )
Meaning for the right offer, the Accidental LL will throw you AND your mother under the bus! You can’t have compassion for impatient bubble-sitters until you’ve had a few “rentals” sold out from under you.
I guess the frustrating part is that it’s not like the old days? Meet the new LL ( same as the old LL ) Now the j.o’s figure they can fix/flip and only after a year or so “on the market” ( sheesh ) throw in the towel and guess what!?
Well with the huge oversupply of housing, IMHO it’s unlikely that rents will be moving upwards anytime soon unless we see a period of high inflation.
If you buy in Florida, the only way you will ever get out alive is to walk away from your home purchase…
A number of car rental agencies offer specials if one drives a car out of Florida.
Long-time lurker - with a question about Geithner’s plan announced yesterday. Is it legal to use FDIC to guarantee the toxic (aka legacy) asset purchases? What will happen if someone sues FDIC to stop this program?
I respect this board and would like your thoughts.
There is no illegal. There is only do.
(that was supposed to have “yoda” …. “/yoda” brackets around it)
No illegal is there. Only do there is.
So, with the PPIP behind us - the big question now is - what’s next? What’s coming down the pipeline for if (when) the PPIP fails?
Let’s see - we’ve had:
- Stimulus 1
- TARP
- Stimulus 2
- TALF
- PPIP
Are there any bullets left? Or is that it? I haven’t heard of anything else in the pipeline. Though the TALF seems to be a bit of a mystery, getting very little press.
Nationalization.
Wipe out shareholders; bondholders get a haircut and become new shareholders along with the government.
Do a back-of-the-envelope on TTT’s plan. You’ll see it’s pretty freakin’ inevitable!
Oh, and if anybody wants the data, I can demonstrate this!
It’s a list of banks and the “portfolio-weighted average marks” at which they are carrying different kinds of loans, etc. on their books.
The optimism is out of control. Some of them are carrying the marks at 100%. What do they expect? That somebody is gonna “overbid” at 110%?!?
Cue Spinal Tap!
So - fair to say then you’re thinking there’s some more dive left in the markets?
My shorts have been killing me the last couple of weeks - riding up in my craw. For a while it was looking like O could do no right, and Timmay was going to go down in flames, or perhaps go up in flames. I forgot about the “spring bounce” and got in too early after the last big dip. I was thinking about getting out altogether until the fall.
“Cue Spinal Tap!”
LOL - This market goes to 11. Good analogy for the housing bubble - just when we thought it couldn’t get bigger in 2004/2005, it was cranked up one louder. Busted speakers.
Thank you FPSS for that slap in the face wake-up call. I was getting sick of the Candy Crappin Unicorn ™ Euphoria comming from CNBC.
I have data to back this up. Oodles of it.
Let’s just say that today I slapped myself in the face about how much of an optimist I was. That was not fun because my slapping hand is both wicked and can do all sorts of tricks.
I am not covering my shorts. Of course, most were at the close yesterday so they are already in the money.
“That was not fun because my slapping hand is both wicked and can do all sorts of tricks.”
ROTFLMAO!!!
I am not covering my shorts. Of course, most were at the close yesterday so they are already in the money.
Yeah, yeah, rub it in!
Though seriously, what about Karl Denninger’s concern that the banks or their shills will overbid with gov’t cheese for their own toxic assets? (See his Market Ticker blog for the post.) The idea is more than a little disturbing.
Email me and I’ll send you the data: cba DOT fed DOT ihg AT gmail.
And when you see the obvious, you owe me all the single malt I can drink. I’m so freakin’ single-minded.
Stupid wordpress - that was supposed to show up below.
“I rent for 1150.00 and any house with taxes and ins will be 2000+, but it will always be 2000+.”
Show me.
(”I like to watch, eve.”)
I love how the buy/rent calculators now assume 20% down and no ROI for that 20%.
I’m renting for $2,300/month with lawn service (house).
The online mortage calculators claim $2,850/month for the mortgage (Its $3,500 is there were a 100% mortgage available… But hey, that life time of savings isn’t worth anything… now is it?)
The ignore the ~$675/month of taxes (local)
Ignore insurance…
Upkeep (landlord coming over to regrount).
Yet somehow $4,500/month with the tax advantage is better than $2,300/month. NOT! We’ll wait. Besides, we already desire a larger yard, kitchen, and one more bathroom and bedroom. Not too mention the garage is too small…
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Yeap, that’s exactly where I was coming from.
White House Press Secretary, Robert Gibbs: “We need resolution authority to go in and be able to change contracts, be able to change the business model, unwind what doesn’t work. This is the exact type of authority that will allow us to deal with the problems in AIG . . . that will address the systemic risk without having to put [a failing firm] in bankruptcy.” Path to Tryanny
This is shocking stuff. What’s puzzling is the response from the public which apparently sees little wrong with the continuing shift to totalitarianism.
Government owns US or Wall Street owns US, what’s the difference?
Agreed. Please see my comments above.
Nah, they just want to have bankrupcy without the stigma of bankrupcy. It’s bankrupcy by any other name (and the looting can continue unabated).
Nobody is paying attention. They’re focused on their own little microworld.
Do you have a link to this comment?? Thanks.
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/chavez/59791
Sent the link, it should show up after a while, if not I’ll re-send.
THIS is exactly the point of the AIG Bonuses….if they had filed BK, the contracts would be voided and they may have to return the $$$ anyway.
————————————————–
allow us to deal with the problems in AIG .
?? Could this power have been used in AIG bailout to keep some of the bailout funds from going to Hedge Funds and Financial Houses like GS. ??
There was an uproar about GS getting 12+ billion of the AIG bailout money and other Hedge Funds doing the same. Thus the AIG bailout was really a bailout of GS and Hedge Funds and Foreign banks. Seems like they gambled on AIG insurance and should take some losses as well.
I still side with Krugeman. Nationalize failing banks, then break up assetts and sell them in an open bidding process. Mostly to smaller banks that didn’t bury themselves in leveraged subprime bets.
Not sure why that would amaze you. 9/11 seems to have put paid to any rational thinking on our part - we don’t complain about our civil rights potentially being stripped, so why should we complain about stuff we don’t understand?
Geithner’s ‘Legacy Assets Roadshow’ Comes to PBS
By Scott Ott
Examiner Columnist | 3/24/09 5:41 AM
News fairly unbalanced. We report. You decipher
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner today announced a public-public partnership with PBS to produce and host a program tentatively dubbed ‘Legacy Assets Roadshow’, with a format reminiscent of the network’s popular ‘Antiques Roadshow.’
Part adventure, part history lesson, and part treasure hunt, the Legacy Assets Roadshow hopes to “tap the viewer’s ongoing curiosity about whether that dusty old thing that looks virtually worthless might turn out to be a precious keepsake worth big bucks.”
Geithner plans to travel to locations around the nation inviting bankers and other financial firm executives to bring in mortgages, mortgaged-backed securities and other items formerly known as “troubled or toxic” but now called “legacy” assets. At the mobile “Roadshow” studio, Geithner and a panel of leading financial experts will offer their appraisals of the debt instruments.
“It’s like discovering grandma’s old hope chest in the attic and then finding out what its contents are worth,” said Geithner. “Our Legacy Assets Roadshow cameras will capture the atmosphere of eager anticipation as bank executives hope their trash can turn to treasure. Of course, most of the time, the paper has nothing but sentimental value…but the speculation will have you on the edge of your seat.”
Unlike the Antiques Roadshow, Geithner said that on his show appraisals will be followed by offers from financial firms and wealthy individuals to purchase the heirlooms. The buyers will put down 10 percent of the appraised value, and get the other 90 percent from Geithner, whose crew will actually print legal-tender U.S. currency on the spot.
“We got the idea for the show,” said Geithner, “when we realized that this economic crisis has all the elements of great entertainment — jeopardy, unexpected twists, and a happy ending when the U.S. taxpayer comes to the rescue of the banker in distress. As PBS fundraisers like to say, ‘TV worth watching is TV worth paying for’.”
LOL - you made that up?
Nothing like opening up Gramma’s old hope chest, only to find the contents glowing, and knowing that you’re going to die a painful death within a few weeks.
Just as proof the MSM IS listening, you’ll see a slightly doctored version within days. Nice work.
But PBS can’t claim they’re in on the joke. I can’t find (1) bubble ref. prior to 2006.
I think they should just do it on Antique Road Show. Those appraisers seem pretty smart.
I can see it now:
Appraiser: “I’m here with Tim, from Washington DC…well this is an interesting piece. But if we turn the bonds over and look closely at the underlying assets, we can see that these homes are almost valueless. See the name here, ‘Mozillo’, he was an early 21st century con-artist who used to mass produce mortages that people thought had value….” “How much did you pay for these Tim?”
Tim: “A trillion dollars.”
Appraiser: “Well I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but on today’s auction market, these would probably go for no more than $200 billion. Thanks for bringing these in though.”
ROTF!!! Yes that’s exactly how it would go.
I like watching that show (or did when I used to have spare time)and I’m not even a gummer.
Tonight on PBS:
FRONTLINE investigates the causes and potential outcomes of — and possible solutions to — America’s $10 trillion debt.
First step - acknowledge that the debt is no longer just $10 trillion. We must find a solution to a $20 trillion debt (at least), not $10 trillion. It’s already at $11 trillion, and projected to go to $21 trillion by 2019.
(P.S. thanks for the heads up)
We should start a poll on when the national debt will hit $20T. If I were betting real money, I would put $100 down on July 2011. That is my conservative bet… it could be as early as next year if all of their guarantees start coming back to bite them.
Nah - it’s bad but not quite *that* bad. I’m thinking $20T probably about 2014.
I would bet on “yesterday.”
See, it’s already there, we (us peons) just don’t know it yet.
Too funny. The only one talking about the debt adds to the debt! I was joking about local PBS and didn’t realize their people read the forum. I said they were funded by the gov’t and competing against private broadcasters. The employee said, “most of our funding doesn’t come from the gov’t, it comes from the public schools.”
*shrug*
Saying they “compete” is silly, though … nobody else is putting out that kind of product.
They’ve lost their broadcast license in some rural markets. The guy who grabbed it put up a tape recording of some Holy Babble preachin’ 24/7. No more classical music, no more NPR, no more local news reports … and no more Car Talk. -_-
“…and potential outcomes of America’s $10 trillion debt”
No Bayer aspirin
No Tide detergent
No cranberry juice
No clothes pins made in America
No chicken noodle soup
No John Deere tractors
No Caterpillar bulldozers
No Bakersfried pesticide baby carrots
No Popsicle’s
No Wrigley’s gum
Well, I would go on,… but it’s a rather long list,… and monetary inflation might catch up before I finish it.
But, a president whose op-ed is published in the 30 major newspapers of this world, today. Including Bangkok, Dubai, etc etc. “We are leading in this crisis”.
Check out the perfect name for a RE Studies group:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29553764
You’re kidding. Right? This is a joke. You hacked into the site and made that up?
I’m happy if I can just turn my computer on in the morning when I get here.
Are they associated with the Badgered Institute of Mortgage Brokerage Studies?
OMG! That’s just too damn funny! Talk about truth being stranger than fiction!
I think we can all agree that this country is royally screwed up. But our agreements seem to end there. From all the stuff I read here, the Republicans (you know who you are) seem to want to blame all the problems on the Obama administration. This is not only unfair, but it is straight out of the Flush Limpdick playbook. Let’s take a look at this situation.
1. The country is screwed up. So…who exactly has been steering this ship for the last 40 years?
Republicans:
1968 - 1974: Richard Nixon (Republican)
1974 - 1976: Gerald Ford (Republican)
1980 - 1988: Ronald Reagan (Republican)
1988 - 1992: George H.W. Bush (Republican)
2000 - 2008: George W. Bush (Republican)
Democrats:
1976 - 1980: Jimmy Carter
1992 - 2000: Bill Clinton
There have only been 2 Democrats in the last 40 years, and if i remember correctly Bill Clinton turned massive Reagan/Bush deficit into a huge surplus. Even Carter didn’t ring up big deficits. It all came from Reagan and Bush. So when you talk about those trillions in debt we have, and you show your outrage, remember who rang it up.
Oh…and now, after just 2 months, you decide it is all Obama’s fault? All the fault of the people he appointed? Give us all a break. This is total crap and you all know it. The truth is…we are in this mess thanks to a totally corrupt and idiotic Republican philosophy, and now the adults have to clean up the mess. And sure, they will make a lot of mistakes doing it. Basically…
You guys are full of crap.
I am a registered Democrat. I think Rush Limbaugh is a big, fat idiot (and drug addict.)
BUT! I blame the Democratic Congress and Barack Obama for making things worse. And I think his appointments are horrible.
I also think “soaking the rich” will ruin American Business.
Ruin American business?
Compared to what?
Like things are hunky dory now? Or how about those millions of jobs that have gone offshore over the last 20 years? Really smart move for an economy that is 75% consumer driven.
As for soaking the rich, do you have any idea of the loopholes and deductions they get? Did you know that “The Government Accountability Office said 72 percent of all foreign corporations and about 57 percent of U.S. companies doing business in the United States paid no federal income taxes for at least one year between 1998 and 2005.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1249465620080812
Ruin? Compared to what?
“BUT! I blame the Democratic Congress and Barack Obama for making things worse. And I think his appointments are horrible.”
Ever tried to stop a train on a dime? It’s going to take them years to clean up this mess.
I also think “soaking the rich” will ruin American Business.
SOAKING THE RICH ????- Heck at this point I’d be happy with a flat tax that makes them pay an effective tax rate that’s the same as say the average high school teacher. That includes dividends and short term capital gains earned as being CEO or Hedge Fund Manager. I’d add another tax bracket for those making over a million dollars a year.
short term cap gains are taxed at normal rates, fyi.
I was thinking about carried interest
“I also think “soaking the rich” will ruin American Business.”
How about a little All American Gov’t bush approved “waterboarding” a using a large plastic bib ?
I guess Ben’s “watch the political crap” only goes one way??
Let’s review:
“From all the stuff I read here, the Republicans (you know who you are) seem to want to blame all the problems on the Obama administration.”
Uh, no, sorry, hate to bust your bubble. The Bushies got the ball rolling, and the Messiahites are taking it to a new level.
“There have only been 2 Democrats in the last 40 years.”
And how many of those 40 did the Dems rule Congress, where the spending bills originate??? Most.
“Bill Clinton turned massive Reagan/Bush deficit into a huge surplus.”
Yes, with a GOP-led Congress.
There’s plenty of blame to go around. Can you at least acknowledge that??? Or are you as naive as you claim the other side to be??
So…who exactly has been steering this ship for the last 40 years?
1954 - 1995: Democrats control congress
1994-2006: Republicans control congress
2007 - present: Democrats control congress
And your point is?
Bingo, there’s plenty of blame to put on both parties (neither of which I’ll willing associate myself with).
There are a few good people in each party, the rest of them are dishonest opportunists or megalomaniacs.
Banana boy is giving presidents way too much credit.
Don’t forget that all of those creeps are elected, and reelected and reelected and reelected.
I guess the point would be:
“The Government Accountability Office said 72 percent of all foreign corporations and about 57 percent of U.S. companies doing business in the United States paid no federal income taxes for at least one year between 1998 and 2005.”
For reference link, see above.
I’ll bet they insist on pronouncing as “lead” rather than “lied.”
Obacklash coming soon. Guy is just way too cocky and smug. Also, when handouts don’t appear the believers will become rude and unruly (more than usual).
Have you noticed how The One’s head and hands are kinda fading away? Each time he’s on TV he’s a a little more indistinct. It’s like trying to glimpse his features through an ever-thickening fog. Yet the suit is still clearly visible.
http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?section=news/national_world&id=6721411
750k salary and only 500k in savings????????????
Seriously, what an idiot, although a perfect example of who we reward in this country.
I wonder if we’ll get the follow-up divorce story?
It appears that money above and beyond the $500K in savings was instead spent on jet skis, designer handbags, and lord knows what else.
Sell the toys! Why are the jet skis sitting in the garage collecting dust? Sell all the stuff that doesn’t matter. At least it will provide some needed cash. Take those hand bags to the consignment shop.
So, they are on food stamps, but still manage to keep the children in private school thanks to a $30,000 “anonymous” donation. Do they have to pay income taxes on that $30K? It’s above the limit for a gift isn’t it? Suck it up and send your kids to public school like every other pizza delivery boy.
And they guy still talks about his life as if it’s one big gamble. He’ll be on top once he catches a break. Good grief!
Some early rewards to those who pounced on SRS, SKF and/or FAZ at close yesterday.
At close today:
SRS up 11%
SKF up 10%
FAZ up 12%
Is this a bear rally within the bull rally within the bear rally? We’ll see ..
The original upside was a bear-market rally.
Those who have been around a bear-market or two recognize this pretty clearly.
In a bull-market be bullish; in a bear-market be bearish.
Or the more poetic version:
Bulls make money, bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered.
Even a quick back-of-the-envelope of Turbo-Tax Timmay’s plan shows it’s gonna fail.
So tomorrow does one go the other direction, FAS, XLF, etc.???
It was interesting to watch the quick uptick in SKF in the last 15 minutes or so of trading, on the order of 3 to 4 points-about a third of its gain for the day. I wonder who was pushing that number up, and how.
I think many of the longs who profited yesterday were holding on for a while today in the hopes that the rally would continue. Close to the EOD they realized that the rally was running out of steam and decided to cash in on the massive gains from yesterday.
That’s my theory, anyway.
Tomorrow I think we start on a clean slate. I call this rally as officially over, and it will take a fresh piece of news to get it going again. Or recycled news, like the uptick rule. One can mention that every few days and get a surge in stocks. Same with m2m.
Don’t argue with the tape.
- Jesse Livermore
As in, don’t try and attribute reasons to the tape that you may or may not be able to demonstrate. If you can, great but that’s not how it works.
Stimulus, Asian style:
I am currently traveling in E. Asia (in Taiwan at the moment) and plan to head to Japan next. This part of Asia saw its exports plummeting like the end of the world now that the US Consumer aren’t HELOC-ing and spending like it was 2007 and every government in the region is in the public spending overdrive to prop up domestic demand. One thing that they do different here as far as stimulus goes is that they don’t give you rebate checks or cash and HOPE that people will spend all of it instead of saving them, they give you what is known as “consumption vouchers”. These vouchers are redeemable at most private joints and then turned over to the banks for exchange to cash by merchants, but it is useless to consumers if they do not redeem. Thus there is no chance of not spending them. Guess they do stimulus differently in this part of the world.
Also another interesting factoid: the interest rates here are ridiculously low, about 1.75% to buy primary residential properties due to a series of rate lowering by central banks in the regions. Yet when I ask the locals if the RE markets is picking up, they said are you nuts, people aren’t even sure if they have jobs or incomes next month, so what does 1.75% interest rate do? Not much in the overall scheme of things.
However not all is doom and gloom: it seems the exporters are now all hitching on the China stimulus bandwagon and reviving some production lines and forced unpaid vacations given the size and speed of their package. Guess dictatorship, if anything, is efficient and no debate is allowed.
I will write some up some more interesting observations if I see them. When I get to Tokyo, I want to see if I see any of the tent city that is supposedly popping up all over the place as its economy went into a nosedive recently.
I’m leaving for Taipei Thursday! Save some stinky tofu for me….
Ha, that’s what I had for dinner today.
What would you be doing here? Pleasure or business?
I have a friend that I’ve known since grade school who will be conducting the Taiwan National Orchestra. I’m going to see him conduct….
Bye reuven.
Hurry home.
In Tokyo take a walk around Ueno park, look closely into the trees and bushes, you’ll see tents and homeless.
Thanks for your insights, cougar.
Just saw a story on CNN about another renter being screwed over by a foreclosed homeowner/speculator.
If this keeps up, and the J Q Public wises up, it might be hard for any of these new minted “property managers” to rent out houses or condos.
Is there anyway to determine if a specific property was financed as a SFR, or a rental property?
Might be handy to know, especially when negotiating a lease…… Would a bank like to know if a property (that was financed as a SFR) was being used as a rental?
A bank may or may not care if it’s SFR. The insurance company on the other hand…
My sister is moving into a new place this weekend. I helped her weed out potential problem (upside-down, default, foreclosed) properties by using a combination of Trulia and county tax assessor records. If the property was either bought/sold within the last couple of years and/or assessed at current or above current comparable properties, I told her to avoid it. If the property had not changed hands since, say 2000 and assessed well below current comps, I gave her the green light. I don’t know about turning people in for renting out homes they have no business renting out. I guess the local police might be interested…
“Although bailing out banks is politically unpopular, businesses and households can not survive without a working banking system,” says IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn. “The crisis will push millions into poverty and unemployment, risking social unrest and even war, and urgent action is required.”
So, there you have it. The experts say the government must put taxpayers at further risk as “bad assets” are bought from troubled banks. (Taxpayers are the ultimate guarantors.)
Notice that the main objective is to get consumers and businesses borrowing again. That is, return to creating a debt balloon and calling it “prosperity.” We know one member of Congress who does not approve! He thinks we cannot borrow ourselves rich. But we can save for those rainy days.
Rep. Ron Paul first invested in gold nearly 40 years ago when it was officially worth $35 an ounce and holds a part of his wealth in the metal. He is not alone: gold exchange traded commodities have seen record inflows in the past six months, most wealth managers now recommend a core holding and central banks are loath to sell their quotas. Russia has announced it is buying gold. China is, too.
A growing number of Americans think Paul may not be quite the crackpot the mainstream media and a majority of the public think. But it’s hard to swallow his assertion that the federal government’s meddling in what should have been a painful but fairly brief economic correction will stretch it out to fifteen years. Also, he says, the government will destroy the U.S. currency system in the process.
The above is gleaned from an interview with Dr. Paul in the Financial Times.
What complete dorks. You can’t survive without air, you can’t survive without water, you can’t survive without food, shelter is necessary in some climates.
Which of these products do banks produce?
There are probably 2 billion people on the planet that have never stepped foot inside a bank, live miles from the nearest one and have never even had a checking account. How is it that they’re not all dead?
Banks facilitate large scale capital projects, but they are not necessary, and broke banks are even less useful than nothing at all.
So, without banks, how are transactions cleared? Who backs checks that are written? Who guarantees payments for deliveries of goods?
Your wealth is counted in cattle. Duh.
I was going to say “goats,” but then I realized that was a bit snarky. As Olygal says, them’s evil critturs.
Unless you want to live in a primitive, backwards civilization, banks and similar financial institutions are definitely necessary and they don’t all facilitate large scale capital projects. Thousands of small, community banks help their local businesses every day and help drive the growth of these businesses.
I agree though, that broke banks are not useful.
We ought to nationalize the failed banks, sell off the pieces and assist the banks who tried to stick to conservative practices over the past ten years.
The honest and ethical shoud be rewarded, not the idiots who got us into this mess — which actually is a double-whammy for the good banks because they have to compete with subsidized banks.
Fed to Buy Treasuries Tomorrow as New Program Starts (Update2)By Scott Lanman
March 24 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve will start purchasing long-term Treasuries tomorrow, aiming to bring down borrowing costs employing tools last used in the 1960s.
The first operation in the $300 billion effort is aimed at notes maturing from February 2016 to February 2019, the New York Fed Bank said in a statement today. In the coming nine days, the central bank plans to buy debt maturing between March 2011 and February 2039, according to the tentative schedule.
The purchases are part of Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s campaign to end the recession and stamp out the risk of deflation. Policy makers announced the step last week along with a plan to more than double purchases of housing debt to $1.45 trillion, hoping to reduce rates on home loans.
The Fed said the 16 brokers known as primary dealers that help the central bank implement policy will be eligible to sell Treasuries to the Fed, both for themselves and their customers. The companies include units of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp.
While the Fed said last week its transactions would be concentrated in two-year to 10-year debt, the March 30 operation will target Treasuries maturing from August 2026 to February 2039. The yield gap between 10-year notes and 30-year bonds narrowed to 94 basis points today from 104 basis points yesterday. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
Starting April 1 and every two weeks thereafter, the New York Fed will release a tentative purchase schedule for the following two-week period. The Fed’s Open Market Committee authorized the $300 billion in purchases for six months.
The central bank’s latest efforts may help swell its balance sheet to more than $4 trillion this year. The last time the Fed had a targeted program of purchasing longer-dated Treasuries was in the 1960s, in a joint initiative called Operation Twist with the Treasury, which attempted to narrow the gap between short- and long-term debt.
is this the movie “ground hog day”?
The last time the Fed had a targeted program of purchasing longer-dated Treasuries was in the 1960s.
Which ended with a bubble of massive proportions, and an effective default on the US debt in 1971.
Aah yes! that was really really effective.
Why did they do that, anyway? Aside from banks and big business moaning that entire decade about how little money they were making (good, say I).
Blow to Brown as bank chief warns: ‘Britain’s massive public debt means we can’t afford extra stimulus in the Budget’
By Sam Fleming and Benedict Brogan
Last updated at 7:26 PM on 24th March 2009
Caution: Bank of England governor Mervyn King at the Treasury Select Committee today
The Bank of England Governor today issued Gordon Brown with an explosive warning against blowing billions on a second ‘fiscal stimulus’ in the Budget.
Mervyn King said Government deficits are too high for big tax cuts or bumper spending increases in the Budget on April 22.
The extraordinary plea for a ‘cautious’ Budget stunned Westminster, coming at such a politically sensitive time.
It came perilously close to breaching the constitutional convention that the Governor does not question Government policy.
The Tories claimed it blew a hole in Gordon Brown’s plans for next week’s G20 summit in London and what could be a pivotal Budget three weeks later.
Mr King’s devastating assessment wrongfooted the Prime Minister as he flew off on a six day tour of the Americas, which he began by calling for the ‘biggest fiscal stimulus the world has ever seen’.
It underlined mounting concerns about the scale of public borrowing - both inside Government circles and elsewhere.
Mr Brown has been talking up the prospect of a new “fiscal stimulus” to encourage consumers to spend more, and must now decdie whether to defy the Governor.
But he has met resistance from the Treasury, which last night pointedly said it was “relaxed” about Mr King’s verdict.
The Confederation of British Industry this week said the nation cannot afford a second ‘fiscal stimulus’ - despite calls by Mr Brown for further action across the world.
Don’t forget the wise Mr. Brown dumped gold at $250/ ounce. If he’d have saved it for a rainy day he’d still have it, now that they need some real money more than ever.
Zillow has me up 11k this month in 22151
change !
Financial Times
Successful bank rescue still far away
By Martin Wolf
Published: March 24 2009 19:24 | Last updated: March 24 2009 19:24
I am becoming ever more worried. I never expected much from the Europeans or the Japanese. But I did expect the US, under a popular new president, to be more decisive than it has been. Instead, the Congress is indulging in a populist frenzy; and the administration is hoping for the best.
If anybody doubts the dangers, they need only read the latest analysis from the International Monetary Fund. It expects world output to shrink by between 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent this year and the economies of the advanced countries to shrink by between 3 and 3.5 per cent. This is unquestionably the worst global economic crisis since the 1930s.
One must judge plans for stimulating demand and rescuing banking systems against this grim background. Inevitably, the focus is on the US, epicentre of the crisis and the world’s largest economy. But here explosive hostility to the financial sector has emerged. Congress is discussing penal retrospective taxation of bonuses not just for the sinking insurance giant, AIG, but for all recipients of government money under the troubled assets relief programme (Tarp) and Andrew Cuomo, New York State attorney-general, seeks to name recipients of bonuses at assisted companies. This, of course, is an invitation to a lynching.
Yet it is clear why this is happening: the crisis has broken the American social contract: people were free to succeed and to fail, unassisted. Now, in the name of systemic risk, bail-outs have poured staggering sums into the failed institutions that brought the economy down. The congressional response is a disaster. If enacted these ideas would lead to an exodus of qualified employees from US banks, undermine willingness to expand credit, destroy confidence in deals struck with the government and threaten the rule of law. I presume legislators expect the president to save them from their folly. That such ideas can even be entertained is a clear sign of the rage that exists.
‘the crisis has broken the American social contract…’ and the one of other countries too.
Did you know, though, that an op-ed by Obama was today published in 30 leading newspapers around the world. He says that he and the US are ‘leading the world in this situation’.
I voted for him.
So, I’m entitled to say “No, no he can’t.”
(Though, as I said in the other post if it shows up, it wouldn’t have made a difference who was President.)
“If this scheme works, a number of the fund managers are going to make vast returns. I fear this is going to convince ordinary Americans that their government is a racket run for the benefit of Wall Street. Now imagine what happens if, after “stress tests” of the country’s biggest banks are completed, the government concludes – surprise, surprise! – that it needs to provide more capital. How will it persuade Congress to pay up?
The danger is that this scheme will, at best, achieve something not particularly important – making past loans more liquid – at the cost of making harder something that is essential – recapitalising banks.”
I never thought that they would screw this up so much.
I’m naive.
FPPS and others warned me. I didn’t even know who Geitner was.
It would not have mattered who got elected.
It’s all the same people, the FED, the big Wall Street players, the Treasury.
I liked your post.
I never thought that they would scr*w this up so much.
I’m naive.
FPPS and others warned me. I didn’t even know who Geitner was.
It would not have mattered who got elected.
It’s all the same people, the FED, the big Wall Street players, the Treasury.
I liked your post.
Maybe for the next five or so “bailouts to end all bailouts” to come, they could give some advance thought about communicating the plans so they cannot be readily construed as providing a heads-Wall Street-wins, tails-taxpayers-lose arbitrage opportunity? Because that was my initial interpretation of what this plan is really about (see my posts from last weekend), and apparently I am in good company, as Paul Krugman and Martin Wolf have raised similar concerns.
You ain’t seen nothin’ yet, babe!
We are barely at the end of the fifth in the first but it’s gonna be a double header.
And I’m non-partisan - both parties suck but I am willing to bet that the Candy-Crappin’ Unicorn™ is gonna fail.
Hell hath no fury like hope unrequited!
If only Geithner, Summers, and Rubin would go down with him!
Or, better, would that he would throw them under the cement roller already!
Or if Geithner, Summers and Rubin would fall on their own swords.
“Yet it is clear why this is happening: the crisis has broken the American social contract: people were free to succeed and to fail, unassisted. Now, in the name of systemic risk, bail-outs have poured staggering sums into the failed institutions that brought the economy down. The congressional response is a disaster”.
Correct! Yet we jump from the frying pan into the fire.
Another, less cynical interpretation of the Geithner bank rescue (than the Wall Street arbitrage opportunity version):
This is yet another exercise in rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, as proof that our political leaders are “doing something” to fix the collapse of Wall Street. As long as they entertain the sheeple with newfangled fixes, nobody can accuse them of doing nothing to solve the problem. Whether the fix works is completely irrelevant, as there is an infinitude of potential future fixes which can be proposed and implemented in order to keep hope alive.
The ONLY way the crooks who run this country (and the rest of the world for that matter) are ever going to leave or be ousted is through a full blown depression or war.
Or both.
So yeah, maybe all that CAN be done is rearrange the deck chairs until those conditions come about because rest assured, those criminals have too much money and power to just give up without a serious, serious, fight.
I believe the situation is a lot worse than we know.
Another interpretation of the primary purpose of the bailout:
Follow the Bailout Cash
Michael Isikoff and Dina Fine Maron
Newsweek
March 22, 2009
There was plenty of outrage on Capitol Hill last week over the executive bonuses paid out by AIG after getting federal bailout money. But another money trail could make voters just as angry: the campaign dollars to members of Congress from banks and firms that have received billions via the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
While a few big firms, such as Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase, have curtailed their campaign giving, others are quietly doling out cash to select members of Congress, particularly those who serve on committees that oversee TARP. In recent filings with the Federal Election Commission, the political action committee for Bank of America (which got $15 billion in bailout money) sent out $24,500 in the first two months of 2009, including $1,500 to House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and another $15,000 to members of the House and Senate banking panels. Citigroup ($25 billion) dished out $29,620, including $2,500 to House GOPWhip Eric Cantor, who also got $10,000 from UBS which, while not a TARP recipient, got $5 billion in bailout funds as an AIG “counterparty.” “This certainly appears to be a case of TARP funds being recycled into campaign contributions,” says Brett Kappell, a D.C. lawyer who tracks donations. (A spokesman for Cantor did not respond to requests for comment. A spokeswoman for Hoyer said it’s his “policy to accept legal contributions.”)
Anybody else notice that the MSM is no longer paying its journalists to do analysis but more and more relying on public bloggers to do the analysis for them, and then publishing the results as if it were a “public debate”.
ROTFLMAO
They are behind the times - at so many different levels.
Even the venerated Economist is doing this, and I may have to cancel my subscription. They are not performing at the highest levels any more.
I am perfectly content to be the defunct economist whose various off the cuff blog posts and feral memes are quoted (sans citation) in the MSM.
I claimed I have data so I will tease you with it since I’m such a freakin’ tease anyway.
On a “portfolio-weighted mark” basis, here’s what $hittibank thinks its assets look like on its balance sheet:
Mortgage + HELOC = 94%
Construction = 100%
Commercial Mortgages = 100%
Commercial & Industrial loans = 96%
Consumer Loans = 86%
Who wants to bet on failure with me?
WOW, now I know why Paulson kept studdering.
I’m in on that bet!
and I claim:
Muir:
Sanity = 100%
Sex appeal = 90%
Sexual Prowess = 110%
Well, those claims didn’t work out either, so I’m with you.
Help me understand….
You’re saying they’re saying that they’ve only written down M+H 6%, C&I 4%, Consumer Loans 14% and Construction/Commercial not at all??
Or something else?? Thanks.
You got it, baby!
OMG!
I was thinking of shorting C again today (got bored with them after the first round of massive drops stabilized), but hadn’t looked at that data.
Wow. Much blood to come as the commercial starts to come unglued.
There are FAR better shorts like some of the regional banks who are carrying loans at similar absurd appraisals and are not “too big to fail”.
Wow…..thanks.
Will this happen here next?
Striking workers take 3M France executive hostage
PITHIVIERS, France (AP) — Striking workers for a unit of U.S. manufacturer 3M are holding a company executive hostage at a factory in central France.
French authorities and a company spokeswoman say 3M France industrial director Luc Rousselet is being prevented from leaving the health products plant in the town of Pithiviers by about 20 angry workers.
Company spokeswoman Catherine Hamon says Rousselet had been holding talks with striking workers Tuesday after traveling from 3M France headquarters near Paris. She says he’s not been threatened with violence.
The strike began Friday over company plans to cut 110 of the site’s 235 jobs.
The French division of 3M — a diversified manufacturer known for Post-It notes and Scotch tape — has 2,700 workers.
We can only hope…
“US sperm bank offers stimulus deals”
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.33f98480869b474b6d10cafcf0b1de64.7c1&show_article=1
Let’s give them a hand, folks — apparently lip service wasn’t sufficient.
Western Grip
Grab yer best racket.
Maybe they are equal-opportunity users, or bipartisan over the left-right split.
Did you give any thought to that, huh?
We’ve put in place a comprehensive strategy designed to attack this crisis on all fronts. It’s a strategy to create jobs, to help responsible homeowners, to restart lending, and to grow our economy over the long-term. And we are beginning to see signs of progress.
—
Bammy reading from da script….Alert 5, qualcomm calls may go in the money…..its the Orwell rally…
A guest on the Colbert Report alluded to this odd phenomenon the other night. I tracked down the original story from the UK:
Driven down by debt, Dubai expats give new meaning to long-stay car park
For many expatriate workers in Dubai it was the ultimate symbol of their tax-free wealth: a luxurious car that few could have afforded on the money they earned at home.
Now, faced with crippling debts as a result of their high living and Dubai’s fading fortunes, many expatriates are abandoning their cars at the airport and fleeing home rather than risk jail for defaulting on loans.
http://tinyurl.com/cxnzno
This is more than a year old.
BORING. NEXT.
I beg your pardon? The article I cited was written last month. It’s a shame we all cannot be clever and cutting edge. “Candy-Crappin’ Unicorn™” isn’t getting old at all!
I still laugh every time I see it or write it.
In tonight’s press conference, Pres Obama said Housing prices are beginning to stabilize.
Among other news, the Candy-Crappin’ Unicorn™ is growing younger with time …
A long time forgotten.
The good life was promised..The bad things we done…
We are about to to talk about the good times to come.
Teardrops and laughter pass through this world hand in hand.
Take it as far as you can, my back tracks is covered in gold.
Heaven and Hell…Im standing upright on the ground with my mind still fairly sound.
I may be suspicious, but its been rough and rocky travlin.
its a package show.
They pre-empted American Idol for *this*!
reuven, you are so distracted !
Idol? really?!!!
Cramer says banks are getting better. Shorting time again??
There is no shortage of porcine beauticians in OBwan’s court, including the CIC himself. I, for one, prefer my commentary from folks who shoot straight from the hip, unbiased, unadulterated by hopeful or wishful thinking, and in resonance with economic history.
BUSINESS
Don’t Buy the Chirpy Forecasts
The history of banking crises indicates this one may be far from over.
Think the current economic crisis is bad? Before you decide, take a look at the bubbles, panics and depressions of the past.
By Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff | NEWSWEEK
Published Mar 21, 2009
From the magazine issue dated Mar 30, 2009
The good news from our historical study of eight centuries of international financial crises is that, so far, they have all ended. And we confidently predict this one will end, too. We are just not quite so sure it will be nearly as soon as the chirpy forecasts coming from policymakers around the globe. The U.S. administration, for example, is now predicting that growth will renew in the latter part of this year and continue at a brisk pace of 4 percent for several years thereafter. Is this a fact-based forecast or wishful thinking?
They certainly are stabilizing in some parts of the country; take Detroit for instance. $0 is almost a hard lower bound on home prices (deferred maintenance issues excepted), so once home prices approach $0, further price declines are unlikely.
Well if they have to dismantle them, then $0 isn’t the floor since there is the cost of dismantling.
http://www.law.umkc.edu/faculty/projects/ftrials/conlaw/takings.htm
“The Takings Clause of the Fifth Amendment is one of the few provisions of the Bill of Rights that has been given a broader interpretation under the Burger and Rehnquist courts than under the Warren Court. It is a clause near and dear to the heart of free market conservatives.”
So is the taking AIG or any other TBTF financial being proposed as necessary for the public good? Yes, I believe that is their argument. If so then what is just compensation? Does this bring us back to the issue of mark to market? Is this another way to try to prop up housing by taking companies with toxic debt rooted in mortgages and paying tax dollars out to stabilize the mortgage loan values at a level higher than the market would pay?
testing:
Realtor®.
Great Parisian Hotel for sale.
The Americans bowed out early from buying properties, but are expected to return in late summer.
(paraphrasing)
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/23/greathomesanddestinations/23iht-paris.html?_r=1&hpw
will someone buy me this hotel?
Wall Street Journal
* OPINION: THE TILTING YARD
* MARCH 25, 2009
The ‘Populists’ Are Right About Wall Street
What’s wrong with well-directed anger?
By THOMAS FRANK
How has a popular Democratic president with a convincing electoral mandate failed to translate the opportunities of recent events into the “change” for which voters clamored? What kind of miscalculation allowed his administration to stir up such a wave of populist fury in such a short time?
The short answer, of course, is AIG. Why did the Treasury Department allow the payout of many millions in bonuses to executives of the unit that sank the company? Every answer the president’s brain trust offered made them look more feckless, at the very moment they were rolling out a bank plan designed to spare stakeholders of our troubled financial institutions the haircut they so richly deserve.
This lapse of common sense arises from a deeper problem: the reflexive contempt for populism that is felt by the dominant faction of the Democratic Party — the faction that regards itself as the responsible guardian of financial civilization, and that thinks of populism as crackpot economics and senseless proletarian rage.
…
In Washington, where the need to treat government like a business is a no-brainer, thinking about politics in this way — as though it were a matter of branding, entrepreneurship and CEOs — is thought to be highly advanced stuff.
But I don’t agree. Surely we have learned the hazards of turning business models loose on the state, after all our experiences with the “MBA president” and his “market-based” government, all the “K Street Projects” and “superlobbyists” of the last 20 years, all the regulatory agencies that understood the regulated as their “customers,” all the bailouts engineered by friends of the bailed-out, all the faith placed in “voluntary compliance” on the grounds that business would naturally self-regulate.
…
This way of thinking has not served the Obama administration well in recent weeks. Think of Larry Summers repeating, on program after program, his outrage with the AIG bonuses, but then immediately moving, as you would with a naughty child, into a discussion of the rule of law — which I guess is what you call the years of de facto de-supervision that allowed this disaster.
One of these days it may dawn on our leaders that the public, in this case, is right; that this time the mountebanks and charlatans are not the populists but the responsible-looking CEOs who ran the country’s financial institutions into the ground — and who the administration apparently wants to leave in charge of many of those institutions. The public outrage about performance bonuses isn’t just mindless resentment; it is directed at exactly the instruments that steered the economy into the ditch and the executives who built the system — and who will demand to do business the old way as long as they have breath to bellow.
What’s more, it is only thanks to populist members of Congress that we know our bailout of AIG sluiced billions to foreign banks, and it’s only thanks to public outrage that the administration feels any pressure at all to exert a firmer hand on the institutions it has rescued from bankruptcy.
There are many, I am sure, who wish that this whole bailout business could be settled as an affair between political entrepreneurs and the interests that fund them, as in days of yore. But I hope President Obama has a better strategy than that planned for the time when his Treasury Department has to ask Congress for another helping of TARP.
Actions speak louder than words, unless politicians are doing the talking.
Wall Street Journal
* MARCH 25, 2009, 6:56 A.M. ET
Drive to Tax AIG Bonuses Slows
Return of Some Awards Undercuts Bill in Senate; Obama to Meet With Bank Chiefs
By GREG HITT
WASHINGTON — Congress’s drive to recoup bonuses at American International Group Inc. is slowing significantly as passions on the issue cool, potentially removing a wedge that has threatened to derail the Obama administration’s broader agenda.
The bonuses sparked an outpouring last week in the House, which voted overwhelmingly to impose a 90% tax on many bonuses, not just at AIG but at all institutions receiving significant financial-bailout support. But the legislation now appears certain not to come up in the Senate until after a two-week recess that begins April 3. It could be put off altogether if the administration demonstrates a commitment to reining in such payments in the future.
Aren’t these gloomsters the same folks who promulgated serially rosy forecasts just a few years back (real estate always goes up, and so on)? Now it seems like the UCLA and UCSB forecasting teams are trying to outgloom one another.
Here is some related advice for would-be California home buyers:
1) If they are correct, there will be no risk of price appreciation until at least 2012, but considerable risk of further price declines, especially in high end (aka “middle class”) housing.
2) By implication, there is no risk of getting priced out forever but considerable risk of losing your entire downpayment if you buy early.
3) Make sure you have some good inflation / devaluation hedges in place in case you are trying to save up for a downpayment, as the Fed is explicitly running the printing press now.
4) Keep in mind the old but truthful joke about Used Home Salespeople:
Q. How can you tell if a Realtor™ is lying?
A. Check whether his lips are moving.
5. It is different this time: IT’S WORSE THAN EXPECTED IN PERPETUITY.
State’s jobless rate forecast to pass 12%
By Dean Calbreath
Union-Tribune Staff Writer
2:00 a.m. March 25, 2009
California’s unemployment rate will soar to between 12 percent and 15 percent by next spring and remain in the double digits until at least the beginning of 2012, according to forecasts released by two teams of University of California economists.
The state’s unemployment rate has not reached those heights since the Great Depression.
The projections – one released today by UCLA’s Anderson Forecast, the other last week by UC Santa Barbara’s Economic Forecast – paint a grim picture of declining economic growth, lower retail sales, a troubled housing market and falling office prices lasting through much of 2010.
“It looks like it will be a nasty recession, but not a depression, although the possibility that we could get to a depression has increased,” said Dan Hamilton, director of the UCSB forecast. “Every month and every quarter that goes by is noticeably worse than the month or quarter that went before.”
The dire predictions come despite the multibillion-dollar stimulus package passed in Washington.
The UCLA forecast projected that the California jobless rate will average 11.3 percent this summer – topping the postwar record of 11 percent during the 1982 recession – and hit a peak of 11.9 percent in the spring of 2010. Unemployment will average 11.7 percent in 2010 and 10.8 percent in 2011, before dipping into single digits in 2012.
California is not the only state whose government is in a world of hurt.
Up to 4 percent of state workers in New York are ordered laid off
ASSOCIATED PRESS
2:00 a.m. March 25, 2009
ALBANY, N.Y. – Gov. David Paterson ordered layoffs yesterday that could total about 4 percent of state workers after unions refused concessions amid a staggering economic downturn that was projected to push the state’s deficit to $16 billion in the next year.
Budget Director Laura Anglin told The Associated Press that the layoffs of nearly 9,000 employees would be the first since the late 1990s after unions refused even to provide counterproposals.
It was unclear if the eventual number of layoffs could be offset by attrition or early retirement incentives. Those are among the details still to be worked out.
The layoffs, which Anglin said could save the state $481 million over two years, could begin July 1. The state currently employs nearly 200,000 people. But only 141,000 are directly under the governor’s control and that’s where the job reductions will be made.
Anglin said unions have been informed and could still try to return to the table in the coming days before a budget is negotiated.
“We felt there was no other option at this point, considering the size and magnitude of the deficit,” Anglin said in an interview. “We asked everyone for a sacrifice and the unions were not willing to have that conversation.”
The unions held their positions.
“If Gov. Paterson really believes putting nearly 9,000 New Yorkers out of work is a good idea, he really is out of touch with life on Main Street,” said President Danny Donohue of the Civil Service Employees Association union, the state’s largest union.
“The projections – one released today by UCLA’s Anderson Forecast, the other last week by UC Santa Barbara’s Economic Forecast – paint a grim picture of declining economic growth, lower retail sales, a troubled housing market and falling office prices lasting through much of 2010.”
I would be interested to know how they reconcile a predicted end to the housing market’s troubles in 2010 against unemployment that is projected to remain at double-digit levels into 2012? Has the housing market ever recovered in previous downturns when unemployment was over 10 percent? How did the labor market recover and the housing market recover compare in the early 1990s? (My recollection is that the labor market recovered before California home prices bottomed out, but please correct me if I am wrong on this detail.)
…labor market recovery and the housing market recovery…
(Must … drink … coffee …)
Gulp…
Dollar could be demoted
China suggests creating a new global currency
By Joe McDonald
ASSOCIATED PRESS
2:00 a.m. March 25, 2009
BEIJING – China is calling for a new global currency to replace the dominant dollar, showing a growing assertiveness on revamping the world economy ahead of next week’s London summit on the financial crisis.
The surprise proposal by Beijing’s central bank governor reflects unease about its vast holdings of U.S. government bonds and adds to Chinese pressure to overhaul a global financial system dominated by the dollar and Western governments. Both the United States and the European Union brushed off the idea.
The world economic crisis shows the “inherent vulnerabilities and systemic risks in the existing international monetary system,” Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan said in an essay released Monday by the bank. He recommended creating a currency made up a basket of global currencies and controlled by the International Monetary Fund and said it would help “to achieve the objective of safeguarding global economic and financial stability.”
Zhou did not mention the dollar by name. But in an unusual step, the essay was published in both Chinese and English, making clear it was meant for a foreign audience.
The timing of the appearance of this article this morning is personally interesting to me, as I noticed on my drive home from work that Pardee Homes is forging ahead with maybe thirty units in a new home construction area of Del Sur.
Housing construction remains low in county
By Roger Showley
Union-Tribune Staff Writer
2:00 a.m. March 25, 2009
San Diego County housing construction in February continued at record-low levels for the second straight month as builders focused on selling unsold inventory, the Construction Research Board in Burbank reported yesterday.
Only 86 homes, condos and apartments – one less than in January – were authorized by San Diego’s 18 cities and county government last month.
By contrast, 415 homes were approved in February 2008, 539 in February 2007 and 1,180 in February 2006. If typical permitting patterns continue this year, San Diego agencies may end up approving less than 1,050 units, 80 percent less than last year’s total of 5,155.
Borre Winckel, chief executive of the San Diego County Building Industry Association, said building might improve by year’s end if the economy improves, foreclosures drop and builders sell off their existing inventory.
“Builders are offering units at prices so low that they cannot rebuild units at cost,” Winckel said. “As long as you can buy a house in a new subdivision for a price less than construction, builders will not go out and get a lot of permits pulled.”
“Borre Winckel, chief executive of the San Diego County Building Industry Association, said building might improve by year’s end if the economy improves, foreclosures drop and builders sell off their existing inventory.”
Cue in FPSS for the Candy Crappin Unicorn line…
That’s a lot of if’s big-boy!
If I had a unicorn and if that unicorn were to fly and if that unicorn were to stream rainbows out of its @ss while flying then I could locate the end of the rainbow and some gold.