Bits Bucket For April 1, 2009
Please visit the HBB Forum. Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
Links
-
November 2024 M T W T F S S « Sep 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Photo Submission: hbbphotos@gmail.com
View the HBB Photo Gallery *updated 4/13/2008
Private employers cut jobs by a record 742,000 in March versus a 706,000 revised cut in February that was originally reported at 697,000 jobs, said ADP, which has been carrying out the survey since 2001.
Economists had expected 655,000 private-sector job cuts in March in the ADP report, according to a recent Reuters poll.
It’s good to know that at least one other profession manages to make a complete fool of itself on a monthly basis.
Grim.
Weird that the ADP report is out so early this month. Seems like a 1% discrepancy is forgivable given how quickly they come out with the reports.
You’re talking about the revision which is negligible.
I’m talking about the discrepancy between the actual and the consensus which is asinine.
Your Bayesian prior base-case has to be at least of the form that this month’s data will be similar to last month’s.
The “profession” is filled with a buncha circle-jerkers.
Gotcha - yes you’re right it’s amazing how “accurate” the “economists” are.
Something tells me some of these same folks or this same data was used for the supposedly-pessimistic CBO projection of unemployment peaking at 9.4%. Yeah good luck with that. I plan to revisit some bookmarks after we blow past it this summer.
“Private employers cut jobs by a record 742,000 in March versus a 706,000 revised cut in February that was originally reported at 697,000 jobs, said ADP, which has been carrying out the survey since 2001.”
In spite of this, the market is still up mildly on “better than expected” manfuacturing news and such. But what is this “great” news?
- “The Tempe, Ariz.-based Institute for Supply Management said Wednesday its manufacturing index rose to 36.3 last month from 35.8 in February. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected the index to rise to 36.” (Big deal - it’s still near historic lows, and more and more people are being laid off.)
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Manufacturing-index-shows-apf-14813635.html?sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=TBD&ccode=TBD
- “The National Association of Realtors said Wednesday said its seasonally adjusted index of pending sales for previously occupied homes rose 2.1 percent — in line with expectations — to 82.1 in February from January’s record low of 80.4.” (Why does anyone still trust numbers that come out of this institution?)
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Pending-home-rise-21-percent-apf-14813599.html?sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=TBD&ccode=TBD
- “The Commerce Department said Wednesday that February construction activity dropped 0.9 percent, less sharply than the 1.5 percent decline economists expected. Total construction has been falling since October. The level of activity is at the slowest pace in nearly five years.
Home builders have cut back sharply, but face a rising glut of unsold homes as record mortgage foreclosures dump more properties on the market. Lennar Corp. said Monday that its fiscal first-quarter losses surged 77 percent due to charges to adjust land and inventory values, and plunging home deliveries and new orders.” (This is a very interesting article…the data indicates pretty clearly that neither commercial or residential real estate is coming back any time soon.)
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Construction-spending-falls-apf-14813459.html?sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=TBD&ccode=TBD
They’re piling it thicker and deeper. The pendings sales are horrendous. Outrageous that they could tout that as an improvement. Market manipulation continues apace.
Hanging on by my fingernails in this market–only consolation is that when the next plunge comes, it’s going to be seismic.
The idea that “Economists” in the traditional sense are making predictions has completely left me. I take any “prediction” advertised as from “Economists” as a snapshot of yesterday’s actuals. It seems they are always totally surprised by any dynamics.
The only Economics I ever studied was Engineering Economics; how to make a project come in on budget and how to make a profit.
Look, if you even take the simplest AR(1) model with its completely dubious correlation coefficient from past data, you get a fairly reasonable prediction.
This is beyond ridiculous! You would have to actually work really hard to come up with such a bad consensus. Wonder what they did with the rest of the chicken entrails.
You’d have to apply the AR(1) to the changes in numbers not the numbers (whatever that is called) but everyone knew that, right?
“The more you eat…the more you shit”
Woody Guthrie
AR = autoregression model 1? I have no idea what that is, but it has to be pretty useless when your basis set is based on idealized data from the long ago days when people paid their bills, supply met demand, and Wall Street acted in its own best interests.
A “correlation coefficient” is just an other fancy-schmancy name for a fudge factor.
Too much faith is put into these computer models created by eggheads overly impressed with their own résumés. They failed to predict mortgage defaults, price drops. And applying them to the stock market? Puhleease. I’d rather use a linear regression of data from tea leaves, bat guano, chicken entrails and a Ouija board.
FPSS, it has been four decades since I slept through that statistics class. Yes, I gathered that you had acceleration in mind. My point is that these guys aren’t even doing linear extrapolation. What was yesterday, should be tomorrow, right?
We’re saying the same thing - naive interpolation would give you better results; slightly less naive interpolation would give you even better results.
Instead, they decided, hey-ho-the-derry-o, we’re gonna pull a number out of our @ss instead.
Wall Street adopted David Li’s formula, known as a Gaussian copula function, for assessing complex risk.
Appears economists might be using it to calculate expected private-sector job losses.
Well, it obviously doesn’t work.
Actually, the idea that Gaussian anything might have something to do with price action is ludicrous on its face.
Mandelbrot was right, yet everyone has ignored him for some 45 years. You know what pays? Feeding into people’s fantasies and delusions. Being right? Not hardly ever (except among a small circle of your friends, and they don’t pay your rent and light bills).
I’m yawning here. Nudge me when class is over.
The only part that caught my eye, was bat guano and the ouija board. Makes way more sense in this world.
Now I know that you can get away with murder, bribery, thievery, lying, cheating, as long as you are wealthy and probably in office.
Prices are non-negative numbers. They can’t be Gaussian by definition. And they are arbitrary because of splits, etc. There’s no meaning to the price of a stock.
You’re thinking of stock returns in which case I (mostly) agree with you.
Well, I’m not yawning.
I think they are using the new formula developed by Dr. Foo at Peking University, and Professor Robert King, of the Harvard Business school…..uses fertility rates of wild Utah burros, and dung generation by Chinese mules to determine the health of the local economies.
aka………(get ready)……”The Foo-King Wild A$$ Guess”
Dani, was just referring to BlueSkye in a joking manner.
“FPSS, it has been four decades since I slept through that statistics class.”
Work really hard? Why? You take whatever your numbers tell you the job losses will really be, assume that the numbers are wrong because you had to drive around a bit to get a good parking space at the mall last weekend, figure out what will make people think that a turn around is starting and publish that.
How hard can it be?
Technically, that’s called Consultation.
Would this be called the Manny function?
Work really hard? Why?
Because it’s a consensus number so this means virtually all of them are smoking the Maui-Wowie. That’s just amazing.
This is the beauty of “central tendencies”. If they are so egregiously wrong, you can actually conclude that virtually ALL of the prognosticators must be wrong.
That’s just astounding, no?
In fact, Cat, you are correct. If they are going through some sort of actual calculation and all coming up with approximatley the same number and that number is terribly wrong it is astounding. My recollection is that we were told that some of the old predictions were spectacularly wrong because the models are always wrong during a change in trend, either from job creation to job loss or loss to creation. But we are well past the change in trend at this point aren’t we?
As SFBayGal, pointed out, my first comment was a little satirical.
Yep, two points here:
[1] Well past the trend so that even naive interpolation works.
[2] They are all coming up with these numbers independently, and this is some kinda average.
Both mean that a lot of people are smoking a lot of dope, or have bought the delusion.
polly,
This whole thing has me so mad I’m gonna go and take it out on a buncha onions and some garlic.
Hoo-boy! I wish they knew what was coming!
Lunch, of course. Economists have to eat too.
“This is beyond ridiculous! You would have to actually work really hard to come up with such a bad consensus. Wonder what they did with the rest of the chicken entrails”
Beyond harsh FPSS, yet once again getting to the guts of the problem…I loved it!
Hmmm… jobs losses…
Well, that must mean “spring is almost here” and “now is the perfect time to buy or sell a home.” Because, you know, income doesn’t matter, right?
I’m just waiting for some home builder to do their own version of the idiotic Ford/GM “deadbeat payout” scam where they’ll make your mortgage payements for you for a year if you buy a house you can’t afford.
Whatever it takes to keep the scam going, the (leveraged) money swirling, and the gamblers in the house!
Pondering . ..
You joke about this. But I suspect we will be seeing some version of this. And people will be pulling the new Fords into the driveways of the new homes 30 days later.
It’s a no-brainer. So sad . . .
I think you have it backwards…the TARP money and the Fan/Fred bailouts ARE keeping the deadbeats in their homes right now. The rustbucket industry just wants similar treatment from Uncle Sugar.
New York Times
U.S. Hopes to Ease G.M. to Bankruptcy
By MICHAEL J. de la MERCED and JONATHAN D. GLATER
Published: March 31, 2009
The government may seek to ease General Motors into what it calls a “controlled” bankruptcy, somewhere between a prepackaged bankruptcy and court chaos, by persuading at least some creditors to agree to a plan that would cleave the company into two pieces, according to people briefed on the matter.
My sister is a GM bondholder. And her husband is a GM assembly line worker. Got correlation?
GM bondholders brace for “pennies on the dollar”
Tue Mar 31, 2009 6:25pm EDT
By Walden Siew
NEW YORK (Reuters) - General Motors bondholders on Tuesday braced for a reduced offer of “pennies on the dollar” for about $28 billion in outstanding GM debt and new terms for a swap under a revised survival plan.
Bondholders, a key constituency in any restructuring or potential pre-arranged bankruptcy plan, met on Monday to discuss GM’s latest efforts to overhaul its operations and reduce its debt burden, according to two sources who participated on the conference call.
Investors fear an offer of “pennies on the dollar,” one source said, noting no new offer has been made and the key issue is recovery values in a debt swap, which bondholders view as an effective default. They had expected to recover 30 cents to 33 cents on the dollar in the event of a default or bankruptcy by the automaker.
Prof, I hope they don’t also have GM stock in their retirement account. Its very sad when you work for and have most of your eggs in the company basket and it crumbles. I had hoped Enron and other famous collapses showed people the horrible effects of being too loyal to corporate America.
Dream on!
Most people would know more about the contestants on American Idol than where their money is being invested.
Faster my GF gets to admit guests free at the Met museum of art…wanna see the Rembrandt’s and the Van gohs?…
Thanks, dj, but I’m a member too. Planning to go soon.
You wanna make it a mini HBB meeting with anyone else from nyc? Maybe all stop and get a drink and nachos afterward?
I (still) regularly see clients where 50%+ of their 401k is in company stock. I just ask them how would they feel if they woke up one morning and had no job and their 401k was down 50%. Most get it, some say the company XYZ is strong, others don’t seem to care. Many of them are GE people and have seen it firsthand. I am a lawyer and not a financial adviser and tell them that, but do feel compelled to at least raise the issue with them when reviewing their assets for estate planning and tell them to talk to someone about it.
Anyone can get in free at the Met. The posted admission price is a suggested amount, but you don’t have to give them anything. If the admission price is not required, then admission to the museum has no real value and anything you do give is a tax deductible donation (if you itemize). If you check the receipt they give with your little button, the amount you actually paid is identified as a donation.
“Most people would know more about the contestants on American Idol than where their money is being invested.”
Now don’t go alienating the Dancing with the Stars experts.
I’m pretty sure you have to make a donation of some amount to get in to the met… a penny will do, but expect some attitude.
I give based on the amount of time i plan to spend there.
Less artsy more fartsy!!!
AW geee, i thought it might be a cool little get together….
“I (still) regularly see clients where 50%+ of their 401k is in company stock. I just ask them how would they feel if they woke up one morning and had no job and their 401k was down 50%. Most get it, some say the company XYZ is strong, others don’t seem to care. Many of them are GE people and have seen it firsthand. I am a lawyer and not a financial adviser and tell them that, but do feel compelled to at least raise the issue with them when reviewing their assets for estate planning and tell them to talk to someone about it.”
My guess is 70% of your client’s taking no action is pain-avoidance. If people do nothing, they have not realized a loss yet and this choice simply hurts less. I admit I have a few loser stocks I play that false mentality with. The losses are so severe, why act.
The other 30% take no action due to never ending American optimism the loser investments will eventually come back. As you are seeing, most average joe investor today sits virtually frozen, catatonic, and unable to move. Such an interesting and wide-spread phenomenon.
The losses are so severe, why act.
Because it’s opportunity cost, that’s why.
Loss realized can be written off now, and the money rolled into better bets for the future.
Opportunity cost is one of the most misunderstood things of all time. Humans are singularly bad at it.
Yes, opportunity cost, but most of these investors have little confidence of what would be a better bet - hence the apathy.
Nope.
Many people I know still dump large amounts of their 401k’s into their own company’s stock because, “we know what’s going on here.” Yeah, sure they do…
And don’t get me started on all the unlucky folks who are stuck with nothing but “company choices.” in their 401k’s - various “funds” that have sky-high management fees and which consistently underperform every index… and even the “safe investments” are down massively over the past year or so. Yep, “invest for the long term” - how else can they collect those fees from yah!?
I have four 401K’s from past employers - every one of them had a Gov Securities offering. People who moved funds to those early on lost very little.
Wonder what percentage of 401K do not over Gov Securities fund.
over = offer
Never snort the same powder than you are selling.
If you think of yourself as a glorified bond (generating an income each month) then you should make sure that your investments are negatively correlated with your own income.
“If you think of yourself as a glorified bond (generating an income each month)…”
Very well put.
That’ what people thought their ever-rising house equities were, until …
combotechie,
And just think of all the relatives and co-workers you alienated yourself from trying to point exactly ‘that’ out? I’m still aghast at how much risk they were willing to take and how indifferent they were about the consequences to others?
I’m still aghast at how much “risk” they were willing to take.
A word that until recently had lost all meaning.
Slice and dice has risk? Who knew?? /s
Ernest,
No doubt it applies to AIG/Bear/etc. but ‘my’ recent revelation has been more on a local level. Our rinky-dinky bank was shut down by FDIC and the atty’s “I” have spoke w/ have seen these bank failures before.
In their estimation, many times the town itself NEVER recovers! Local bank failures create a “crisis of confidence”, trust is permanently broken and ALL money becomes “mattress money”. Without any new investment capital, the town dies a slow and painful death. Like clockwork.
I find myself getting depressed and wondering if even at my age ( 50 ) I have the energy for a climb ‘that’ uphill?
“Slice and dice has risk? Who knew?? /s”
FPSS, I like to refer to the “Law of Conservation of Risk”. You can move it around, but that does not change how much of it there is, and it has definitely gone somewhere; it’s just like thermodynamics…
A shockingly obvious point that seems to have escaped a certain Prof. Robert Shiller (refer to his “other” book - “The New Financial Order” for proof about my claim.)
On the other hand, you can adopt regulation that limits risk - financial risk is not exogeneous risk like a hurricane or a meteorite. But conditional on current regulation, whatever risk there is must reside somewhere.
I am an understudy working toward being a master of the shockingly obvious….
But I am nowhere near the Clown Prince of the shockingly obvious.
Sorry—that’s Clown Prince:tm:, of course…
LOL.
I like shockingly obvious propositions because they can make you very rich if you can buy them when they are underpriced.
“Never snort the same powder than you are selling.”
Need proof? Newly minted realturds who speculated and now in a catch 22 situation. Can’t drop the price on their own speculative junk but can’t sell their listings if they don’t convince sellers to lower price.
Boo hoo.
I’m thinking of myself as a bond at maturity.
So… did you pay off in full?
I’ll ask her and get back to you.
I asked her. She’s like he’s worse than the AAA-rated US T-bond.
Glorified…who’s glorified? I’m a dirty bond.
Hey, I like that!
I’d rather be a bond than a “consumer” anyway!
Bond? James Bond.
Shaken not stirred.
“If you think of yourself as a glorified bond (generating an income each month) then you should make sure that your investments are negatively correlated with your own income.”
I’ve always considered the correlation; never thought of my income-stream as a bond, though. Great analogy! Thanks FPSS…
It’s not an analogy. It’s Finance 101. Income streams are equivalent to a lump-sum (= bond price now.)
But I’m always glad to teach people something.
Is that bondholder or bagholder?
Professor Bear …I for one feel bad for anybody that has a loss as a result of this meltdown ,especially if they didn’t contribute to any fraud and were just normal people relying on the “Good Faith” of what was really corrupt and under funded systems . The truth is that we
all will be compromised in one way or another ,especially in the future by increased taxes and inflation no doubt . I’m getting financial hits myself that I never expected or could of protected myself from . Sorry for your kin folk .
GM already isn’t worth much more than pennies on the dollar - the stock is down more than 95% for the last six months.
I don’t really feel too much sympathy for the “big kahuna” shareholders in GM right now, because they’ve stood by for decades as GM’s blundering top management has made mistake after mistake.
The little guys that own GM stock will unfortunately be feeling the heat here also.
“Controlled”…….yeah, we’ll see how that goes.
Both these deals have “unintended consequences” written all over them.
It’s a rough time for all the auto manufacturers — even the Japanese are taking a massive hit.
Toyota, Nissan Lead 32% Plunge in Japan Auto Sales (Update2)
By Naoko Fujimura
April 1 (Bloomberg) — Toyota Motor Corp. and Nissan Motor Co. led a 32 percent drop in Japan’s auto sales to the lowest level in 35 years as economic recession exacerbates slumping domestic demand.
Vehicle sales, excluding minicars, fell to 323,063 vehicles in March, the Tokyo-based Japan Automobile Dealers Association said in a statement today. Toyota, Japan’s largest automaker, sold 135,700 vehicles excluding its Lexus-brand cars, down 32 percent. Sales at Nissan, the country’s third-biggest, fell 34 percent to 59,292.
This is what you do when your company slows down. It shouldn’t be that hard to figure out for high paid executives, union leaders or politicians. The Big 3 should have done this a long time ago.
Honda to cut North American production, worker pay March 31, 2009 7:26 PM ET
All Thomson Reuters news WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Honda Motor Co Ltd said on Tuesday it would cut production in North America by 62,000 vehicles by shutting down factories for 13 days starting in May and said it would cut pay for salaried and factory workers.
The lengths they are going to in order to get people to buy a car from the Big 3 are laughable. I hope everyone realizes that those same recources and effort could be put to better use than trying to push products the marketplace is rejecting.
Big three are not Big anymore
They should be the Small 2
So when are all of you thinking will be the best time to drive a ruthless deal on an overstocked vehicle?
I have a 16yo Isuzu Rodeo that I’d like to replace someday with a newer model that gets better mileage, but I can wait another year or two if need be.
There are some reasonably good deals available now, but if you wait a bit longer you may find that the bailout/structured bankruptcy for GM and Chrysler yields even better discounts than what is available now.
That said, some Chrysler (and perhaps Ford/GM) dealers still have unsold new ‘07 models that aren’t moving despite EPIC discounts. (Not sure you really want a Chrysler, however.) It might be possible to work a desperate dealer down even farther on these “leftover” cars, and the deals you can get that way are often astounding. My father, for instance, did this in 2005 on a new Ford Explorer that had been sitting on the lot unsold for more than a year. After all the dealer discounts, “employee pricing”, incentive cash, etc. were thrown in, he paid $21k for a truck that stickered at $30k.
Yeah really.
In fact, several studies have clearly indicated that more people intend to turn their backs on GM and Chrysler products in the future because of the bailouts.
“…a new Polk survey shows that 61 percent of Americans now oppose giving GM and Chrysler more money. More tellingly, support for a continued bailout of the auto industry peaks at only 16 percent in the manufacturing-heavy Great Lakes region and drops to as low as 4 percent in favor in New England. And there’s little room to argue that lack of support is based on ignorance or misperception. About the same percentage of people who opposed more loans also recognized that denying them would have dire economic consequences. One Polk analyst describes the emerging consensus on Detroit’s predicament as “it’s a problem, but it’s not a problem for taxpayers.”
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/bailout-support-falling-sales-to-follow/
That’s the old “I’m screwed so everybody else should be screwed” attitude!
Credit Suisse First Boston is predicting that GM will report overall sales down 40% YOY.
Even more ominously, Chrysler is predicted to be down *60%* versus last March.
Aside from the Dodge Ram, particularly the diesel, what desirable vehicles does Chrysler produce?
People are eager to know the future. Will the recession end this year? Shall we toast renewed prosperity in 2010? If not - why not? After all, President Obama has surrounded himself with some of the most brilliant minds in economics.
Wrong-o! What Washingon is doing, explains Dr. Antal Fekete, is throwing gasoline on a roaring fire!
“New money created on the strength of a flood of new debt, is tantamount to pouring gasoline on the fire, making prices fall and the economy contract even more. The Obama administration has missed its historic opportunity to stop the deflation and depression inherited from the Bush administration because it entrusted the same people with the task of damage-control who had caused the disaster in the first place: the Keynesian and Friedmanite money doctors in the Fed and the Treasury.”
“The Obama administration has…..entrusted the same people with the task of damage-control who had caused the disaster in the first place”
Excuse me: Our President himself is the core sample of the “people who caused the disaster”.
Blue shirts, red shirts. Move the Home Team sign to the other end of the court. It’s a whole new game…….not.
Why is this such a difficult concept?
Are we at war with Eurasia or Eastasia now? I keep forgetting.
“‘And I’ve been puttin’ out the fire with gasoline
Puttin’ out the fire… with gasoline…”
“We Didnt Start The Fire”
49 harry truman, doris day, red china, johnnie ray
South pacific, walter winchell, joe dimaggio
50 joe mccarthy, richard nixon, studebaker, television
North korea, south korea, marilyn monroe
51 rosenbergs, h-bomb, sugar ray, panmunjom
Brando, the king and I and the catcher in the rye
52 eisenhower, vaccine, englands got a new queen
Marciano, liberace, santayana goodbye
Chorus
We didnt start the fire
It was always burning
Since the worlds been turning
We didnt start the fire
No we didnt light it
But we tried to fight it
53 joseph stalin, malenkov, nasser and prokofiev
Rockefeller, campanella, communist bloc
54 roy cohn, juan peron, toscanini, dacron
Dien bien phu falls, rock around the clock
55 einstein, james dean, brooklyns got a winning team
Davy crockett, peter pan, elvis presley, disneyland
56 bardot, budapest, alabama, krushchev
Princess grace, peyton place, trouble in the suez
Chorus
57 little rock, pasternak, mickey mantle, kerouac
Sputnik, chou en-lai, bridge on the river kwai
58 lebanon, charles de gaulle, california baseball
Starkweather, homicide, children of thalidomide
59 buddy holly, ben hur, space monkey, mafia
Hula hoops, castro, edsel is a no-go
60 u-2, syngman rhee, payola and kennedy
Chubby checker, psycho, belgians in the congo
Chorus
61 hemingway, eichmann, stranger in a strange land
Dylan, berlin, bay of pigs invasion
62 lawrence of arabia, british beatlemania
Ole miss, john glenn, liston beats patterson
63 pope paul, malcolm x, british politician sex
Jfk, blown away, what else do I have to say
Chorus
64 - 89 birth control, ho chi minh, richard nixon back again
Moonshot, woodstock, watergate, punk rock
Begin, reagan, palestine, terror on the airline
Ayatollahs in iran, russians in afghanistan
Wheel of fortune, sally ride, heavy metal, suicide
Foreign debts, homeless vets, aids, crack, bernie goetz
Hypodermics on the shores, chinas under martial law
Rock and roller cola wars, I cant take it anymore
Chorus
We didnt start the fire
But when we are gone
Will it still burn on, and on, and on, and on..
Roubini: Go Ahead, Keep Dreaming of That “V-Shaped” Recovery
Posted Apr 01, 2009 07:30am EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession, Banking
As we noted earlier, Nouriel Roubini of RGE Monitor actually has a surprisingly non-apocalyptic forecast for the economy: The first quarter of this year will mark the worst rate of decline, and the outlook will gradually improve from there.
We’ll still be in a recession through 2009, says Roubini (in contrast to most economists, who think the economy will be growing nicely by Q4). But then, finally, the economy will begin to recover.
But what will this recovery look like? Will it be the V-shaped rocket launch that some bulls are looking for?
No.
It will be an L-shaped slog, says Roubini. The economy will grow at a depressingly slow rate for quite a while, and the stock market will tread water. We may have seen the lows on the S&P 500 (or close to it) but that doesn’t mean stocks will make you any money anytime soon.
Same symptoms as Japan, same disease as Japan, same medicine as Japan so it is not surprising that we might suffer the same outcome as Japan did when their bubble collapsed.
Oh lawd, it’s like a dumbfest out there.
DB, not to be outdone, claims it’s gonna be “diminishing sine wave”-shaped recovery. (It’s on the FT.)
They’re each trying to outdo each other in bad metaphors.
Somebody kill me! Or else it’s gonna have to be a liquid lunch today.
Quick, jump in front of the short bus
If I had confidence that they would actually do the job, I might but I think they would “miss” the target (see article about economists above.)
I predict a Mobius-strip shaped recovery, where we go round and round through the same nonsense over and over with many dreaming of returning to the “good old days” of easy fraud and free money, while we make no forward progress.
hehehe…
“Mobius-strip shaped recovery”
LOL! That’s awesome!
What? Did you folks think “Idiocracy” was just a movie?
Wanna see another great movie about how stupid this country is? It’s an oldie but a goody and even more relevant today: “Americathon!”
Sounds about right to me. Except I don’t think it’ll be L-shaped - it’ll be more like a hybrid U/L. We’ve still got a ways to go down yet, and IMO it will be well into 2010 before we reach any kind of bottom. It’ll be a slow curve to the bottom though - like a U with the right side flattened out, not a well-defined “we’re at a bottom” like an L.
Symantics I guess.
Semantics I mean.
What are the possibilities of a non-English letter shaped recovery?
Even the prospects of P or X shaped recoveries seem remote at this juncture.
I think most of us are ready to get F’d.
What about a ∂ shaped involution?
How about a Brownian Motion recovery?
Can’t I be like Shrodengers famous feline and jump to some new economic quantum state?
I think it’ll be a lower-case q shaped recovery - as in the prices for many assets will plunge well below the historical trend lines before (sort of) coming back up.
On second thought, make that a verrrry broad q.
\
Duration, duration, duration. Even if things simply stagnate at this level for a prolonged period of time the carnage will be huge. It was grow or die - it still is grow or die.
Stagnating below, at or near this level, would be very, very painful. If/when there is ever a consensus that something like this is truely the new normal, the job losses will be staggering.
I think that right now, businesses are still living in pent up demand fantasy land.
“I think that right now, businesses are still living in pent up demand fantasy land.”
Yeah really! The stock markets the last couple of weeks seem to have become completely disconnected from the reality of the American economy. On days where bad news comes in, Wall Street always seems to dig up some obscure “positive” figures and use them as an excuse to have a rally. Today’s market performance is a glaring example - news of record unemployment, terrible car sales, and low manufacturing index numbers somehow get outweighed by data indicating a marginal increase in used home sales and some other slight increases in a few manufacturing industries.
You can’t have an economy built on hope - we tried that for the last decade or so and look where it got us.
In the past 10 years, it was “We hope we can squeeze just a few more years out of our infrastructure as we live and grow off the last fruits leftover from the Greatest Generation.”
Now, it’s “We have hope that we can rebuild a solid country on solid fundamentals.”
Different types of hope.
Well, I think the sane ones are thinking about rebuilding, but we still have plenty of “geniuses” shambling around, looking for one last mark, one last heist, and one last trick to play before running off with their loot.
So are you saying that inbreeding is bad?
“You can’t have an economy built on hope [...]”
Well, we could try—but I would apply FPSS’ maxim and short that hope every time! (While going long critical-thinking, of course.)
Short hope and go long on critical thinking…I like that, I like that a lot.
Agreed. At the point which the collective conscience realizes the predictions for a 2H 2009 recovery are amiss - another tsunami of layoffs is likely.
Picture employers having one foot on the dock and the other on a boat right now.
I thought his comments on inflation were interesting. He didn’t seem to be concerned about an inflation wave after deflation ends.
Nobody in charge cares about inflation - it only hurts those “little people” who get paid an income (vs. stealing it) and who foolishly save money (vs. living in mountains of debt backed by fantasy assets that mean nothing.)
No I meant he didn’t think there would be massive inflation.
I’m skeptical on this point. Every problem the gov and those in power have is solved with inflation. Workers making too much money to compete with those living in huts eating a bowl of rice a day, companies and banks and gov with too much debt, the answer is inflation.
You might think the first question team Barry would ask of a nominee… did you pay your damn taxes! LOL!
New Nominee Tax Flap Spurs Obama to Back Flat Tax
by Scott Ott
(2009-04-01) — As news broke that yet another of his cabinet appointees faces questions about tax returns, President Barack Obama announced today that the tax code is “hopelessly complicated and must be scrapped and replaced with a simple, flat tax.”
The president’s second nominee for Secretary of Health and Human Services, Kathleen Sebelius, announced Tuesday that a review of her tax returns showed she owed more than $7,000 due to illegal deductions she had taken. Tom Daschle, the previous pick for the post, withdrew after revelations that he owed some $140,000 to the IRS due to his mistakes. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner survived the confirmation process despite questions about his failure to pay payroll taxes for several years.
“Tom, Tim and Kathleen are some of the smartest people on the planet,” said President Obama, “and if they can’t file an accurate tax return, it’s not a reflection on their competence or honesty, but rather on the tax code that I inherited from George W. Bush.”
The president ordered the IRS to trash more than 800 tax forms, replacing them with a simple postcard for the taxpayer to record his income, multiply it by a rate of 17 percent, and send it in. That rate will apply to all but the “very wealthy” whose rate will be 83 percent.
“The rich, meaning anyone who earns more than $40,000 per year in the private sector, will of course continue to reimburse the rest of use for the surplus blessings they have received,” the president said. “And they’ll be eager to do so out of gratitude for the simplified tax form. After all, people like Tom Daschle, Tim Geithner and Kathleen Sebelius have been wracked with guilt over filing false returns almost from the moment they were nominated.”
What kind of fool am I. good one.
… but rather on the tax code that I inherited from George W. Bush
Even though I’m an Obama supporter, this is getting old quickly. Yeah, Bush sucked. We know. Do something about it.
you need to learn when to laugh
The problem is that so much of what the media puts out these days is already a complete joke. Seriously, some days I read “news” quotes on here and I can’t tell if they came from something like the NY Times or The Onion. (I suspect this is also why so many people now watch The Daily Show as their nightly news source - Jon Stewart seems more authentic than a lot of newscasters, and when the MSM’s output is so silly to begin with why WOULDN’T you watch a comedy show to get your news?)
Orange Julius
Orange Ju glad I didn’t say bananna?
Even as an April Fool’s Day joke that is pretty lame. It isn’t the fact that the marginal tax rate varies by income that makes the tax code complicated. Most people still look up a number off a table and the others calculate by doing a subraction, a multiplication and then an addition - all 5th grade math at the very worst. The complicated part is the definition of taxable income.
The complicated part is figuring out if you can squeeze through some of the loopholes others have paid to have put into the tax code.
Exactly polly. Or more precisely, the complicated part is finding a good accountant AND tax lawyer.
I’m no accountant by any stretch of the imagination, but I once went to a free little seminar at one of our local universities whose subject was Tax Deductions.
There I learned that while the wealthy are taxed at a higher rate, they also get more deductions and end up paying LESS of a percentage on their income than rest of peons through the most incredible machinations of legal fantasy ever devised.
Ahhhh therein lies the rub of the ATM “reform.”
Obviously few here have read the tax LAW and all of its redefinitions of “employee”, “employer”, “wages”, “includes” and every other critical word.
I am a programmer and have studied law and can follow some incredibly complex code, but when it comes to deliberately writing misleading and confusing “code” or “laws” the tax law is unmatched. Particularly when you realize that you must go back through “version control” to find clearer definitions and labeling.
If you take your “papers” to 10 different accountants you will get 10 different tax returns… considering the experts cannot agree on the “law” then there must not be any “law” other than what the IRS arbitrarily claims after the fact.
I wonder how much the realm of accounting would change if the IRS and all government regulation were dismantled?
It seems like companies would run things very differently and much more efficiently.
If you are really lucky the IRS will issue an advisory letter as to what they think the law actually means and how they intend to interpret and enforce it….. Nice when they have to tell you what they think the law means just so you can try to follow it….
The tax laws are deliberately designed so that it is possible to comply with the “letter of the law” while totally violating its spirit. In that way, the government preserves the illusion that the rich are taxed at higher rates when the wealthy actually just hire people to sniff out loopholes and subvert the law.
Evidently, banks are now making credit available, but at a price that would make the Mafia blush:
“The Finance Charge is a one-time transaction charge and is not dependent upon the length of time the advance is outstanding. The Finance Charge is $2.00 for every $20 that is advanced, which equates to an Annual Percentage Rate (APR) of 120%.”
http://scienceblogs.com/catdynamics/2009/03/120_apr.php
Uh, the Mafia IS the financial sector. Not the other way around. They took over decades ago.
Congressional Republicans are out with their budget plan in the WSJ.
Keep the tax cuts, and keep all entitlements for those now 54 and over, who came of age 1973 and earlier, before the median wage started falling relative to inflation. Borrow massively.
And to “preserve the safety net for future generations” while paying off those debts — means test Social Security and Medicare for those who come after. Meaning anyone who saved doesn’t get them, and ends up facing old age in ill health and povery anyway.
Needless to say, there would be no expansion of the federal role in health care for those 54 and younger. You lose your employer coverage (as most will, because paying for today’s seniors is expensive enough) and get sick, you go broke or die.
Aren’t the Republicans worried that the Democrats will point out how Repubicans have screwed younger generations for 30 years, and the Republican party will die with those 54 or over? No, because they know the Democrats will sell out those younger by pandering to the same people. Just as when Bush pushed his Medicare drug plan not one Democrat dared to say “shouldn’t we do something for those who get nothing before doing more for those who get a lot?”
It’s a bidding war, with America’s future and the lives of younger generations as collateral.
I’d hate to face povery alone.
Povery?
im…POV..erishment.
Ms. Ery loves company.
Yes - Madame Povery - screwed.
You don’t suppose this is an April Fools day joke, do you?
This year April Fools won’t be limited to just April.
Congressional Republicans are out with their budget plan in the WSJ.
Did they include of those number-thingys this time? They conveniently forgot to provide any numbers at their budget unveiling last week, then seemed kinda peeved that people kept asking about numbers and data and stuff like that.
No numbers. Just words.
No, because they know the Democrats will sell out those younger by pandering to the same people.
No, because the Republican base is old and white and the Democratic base is young and non-white.
Get it?
The Democratic base is retired public employees (some of whom are non-White, few of whom are young).
The Republican base is executives who cashed in fat bonuses based on false profits and stopped working.
The political class, the executive class…and the serfs.
SERFS UP! COWABUNGA!
The Democratic Congress sold us out back in the early 1980’s, raiding the SS trust fund to give out fat checks to decidedly non-impoverished oldsters.
What bothers me about means-testing (which naturally is coming) is that the household balance sheets of this country are in such shambles that more people are going to need the supplement than they’re really counting on.
Also, about 1/5 of the older Boomers (and perhaps even more of those older than them) have a high enough net worth to pay their own bills without social security. So why enrich them now? I suppose you could tax the bennies, but that’s of lesser value.
One thing is guaranteed: hiding assets is going to become a national art. Hello Spain and the black market economy.
“Hello Spain and the black market economy.”
Another good weekend topic.
“It’s a bidding war, with America’s future and the lives of younger generations as collateral.”
Younger generations don’t vote and don’t make campaign contributions.
Hey all,
Just got back from my annual jaunt to Key West. While there, *zero* cruise ships came to port. For the last 4 years there have always been 2, and when one left, another would shortly arrive. That is serious — no cruise ships in Key West at Spring Break time… no waiting for any restaurants, and so on… and, of course, many homes for sale.
On the way down, at about MM72, we saw several abandoned waterfront structures where work had not progressed from the same time last year. Florida City — WOW. You would not believe the half-finished ‘hoods and complexes between Miami and the Keys.
Considering that cruises are advertising $50/day deals…
wow
Muggy,
Very encouraging. Personally I’m looking forward to seeing things ease off the frantic MEW-fueled pace? Might even recognize a few things.
DinOR, we can only dream… maybe Key West will become seedy again. I sure hope so.
I should add that Key West is now primarily a cute, outdoor retirement home for Boomers from the Midwest. Most of the people at my parents complex are retired cops, firefighters and teachers from places like Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, New York and so on.
I forgot to mention that this was the first year the homeless were unpleasant. In the years past the were always partying and goofing off — asking for beer money — this year some were downright threatening. Two guys activated the 800lb. Gorilla-pummel-face part of my brain when they were talking chit to my littleman, saying “it must be nice to have a meal” and whatnot.
I have to admit I fantasized a little about some ATM security camera providing grainy footage of me jump-kicking some guy with my baby on my shoulders.
Muggy,
Too funny! Yeah, that ‘is’ the downside of it. Of course had there not been a ‘boom’ to begin with, would we have folks working the system like that?
Speaking of which Patrick’s last thread had some good posts on BA firefighters getting 300K a year retirements and such and I suppose you’d have to have a pretty attractive retirement package to afford retiring in the Keys?
Pretty sad when you have to explain to your kids: “Oh you’d have to have been a teacher or a cop to be able to afford a place like ‘that’!”
“Pretty sad when you have to explain to your kids: “Oh you’d have to have been a teacher or a cop to be able to afford a place like ‘that’!”
What is with this business of cops bagging $250k salaries from working overtime and such? For pete’s sake, what is the overtime pay scale for cops in these municipalities? You gotta be getting one heck of an hourly wage to be bringing home that much cheese each year.
And don’t get me started with the teachers. My in-laws are both teachers, and they are some of the whinest and most cluelessly arrogant people I’ve ever seen. They complain about their jobs so much you’d think they were working the night shift in a coal mine. Because their gold-plated bennies include 100% health care, they’ll literally show up in the ER for a cold or a hangnail. My mother-in-law is a junior high school science teacher, but she’s so ignorant when it comes to anything pertaining to science that I’m amazed she can even answer her students’ questions (in fact, when I was taking organic chemistry in college she insisted that carbon-carbon triple bonds were impossible until I showed her the chapter in my text dealing with them). My FIL is a 5th grade teacher, but when he was preparing his lesson plans he didn’t know how to add fractions with different denominators and had to ask my MIL for the procedure (and apparently she didn’t know how to either, because she had to ask my wife). Despite having $30k in credit card debt, $40k in student loan debt, and other debts owed to their own parents, they recently replaced their three-year old (leased) vehicles with brand new cars and bought a 60′ plasma HD tv with the top-of-the-line dish TV setup. They’ve essentially caused me to lose whatever faith I still had in out education system (and it’s not just them, either - their teacher friends and teacher siblings all act like this too).
My sister is a Bilingual teacher in North Carolina. She makes less than 40K per year.
The lowest three states for teacher pay as per http://www.aft.org/salary/
South Dakota $35K
Utah $38K
North Dakota $39K
Interestingly enough, all three of those states are in the top 1/3 of HS graduation rates.
Source: http://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/2008/section3/indicator21.asp
Maybe throwing money at a problem doesn’t solve it?
Homeless seem to be getting a little ornery every where I go. The amount of “giving” by people must be down from last year.
I can confirm it’s been very quiet while skiing in Tahoe lately.
I wonder how the Giants and A’s are going to do for attendance this year - could local TV ratings for their game go up as fans stay home?
Or will people continue going to games as a break from bad news?
“..I wonder how the Giants and A’s are going to do for attendance this year”
Well, over at the “Los Angeles Angel’s”…in Orange County CA… the marquee advertisers on the baseball stadium premier signage are:
1. Der wienerschnitzel
2. Life water
3. Big O tire
4. Corona beer
Gone:
Countrywide
Ameriquest
Is this considered some kind of anecdotal evidence?
(Hwy, still cursing Kevin Love…)
I completely understand the uncompleted structures. I own a condo in FL, if there are any FBs on this blog who want to buy it.
Unless you like steamy humidity and plenty of rain, Florida’s climate is basically undesirable. I much prefer San Diego, Baja, San Francisco or Portland (although I could do without the tax bite in those jurisdictions).
Rain is not necessarily a bad thing. The southwest will figure this out once Lake Mead runs dry. Living in a desert is not sustainble in the long run plus trees and green stuff are actually quite nice.
Don’t know about the living in a desert being unsustainable…I was watching the desert episode of Planet Earth on TV this weekend. Evidently living in the desert is a great thing if you are a lizard, a camel, or a little tiny fox with huge ears for heat dissipation. Oh, and eating cacti is a plus.
I was watching the desert episode of Planet Earth on TV this weekend. Evidently living in the desert is a great thing if you are a lizard, a camel, or a little tiny fox with huge ears for heat dissipation. Oh, and eating cacti is a plus.
Is that the one with David Attenborough?! I LOVE David Attenborough!! And I mean that! I have a photo of him in my bathroom. Yes, really. And at a party awhile ago I brought it out and put it on my cutest chair, so David could attend and be part of the festivities. Also, I picked up and kissed the picture in what can only be described as an entirely lascivious and unseemly fashion, to illustrate my true, deep, and eternal feelings for him…
Oh, look, whatEVer, like all of YOU don’t do that, too!
So, anyway, moving on: living in the desert is a great thing if you are a lizard, a camel, or a little tiny fox with huge ears for heat dissipation. Oh, and eating cacti is a plus
Yeah: ‘IF’. As it happens, I’m not a lizard, camel, big-eared fox, and I don’t like cactus.
Actually, I like cactus okay. But it has to be served by a cute midget Mexican woman in a bright skirt, and there can’t be any spines.
Nopales is freakin’ delicious, no?
There used to be a restaurant near my house that served it grilled and then stir-fried in this fiery sauce, and I loved it, loved it, loved it.
My friends got so sick of me ordering it that they “banned” it but I always managed to get a side-order.
My friends got so sick of me ordering it that they “banned” it but I always managed to get a side-order.
Well! I’ll be! What are the grounds for banning a delicacy enjoyed by you?!
Oh, wait, IIIIII know—-you rhapsodized about it extravagantly and went on and on and on and made people try it until they became annoyed. Been there.
*nods rain-soggy head wisely and understandingly *
Or, and this is also quite likely, you ate so much you had to be carried home groaning and complaining and fussing like a little child.
Been there, too.
Hahahaahah!
It was the crime of inconsistency.
I’d always be like, “let’s try something new,” so they got all punk-@ss on me about how I was violating my own thesis, and I was, like, “this one is different” but they didn’t buy the argument.
The only one who bought itwas my sister so whenever she was in town, we’d just go there by ourselves, gorge on the nopales and declare the lunch/dinner a success.
I’m quite easy to please, you know! I just have high standards.
They’ve already figured it out. Las Vegas has been trying to get approval to drain a huge aquifer in NW Utah for some years now.
Mike,
If “rain” really is no particular issue than by all means high tail it up here to OR! Actually, we don’t have any more than Miami it’s just that it rains about 70% of the time.
Guys, unless you’ve lived in the Philippines ( 82-87 ) you don’t know jack about “humidity”. Everything else by comparison is fairly tame.
Are you saying that real estate in a parched desert doesn’t “always go up?”
Hehehe…
Give me the high desert anyday. Awesome vistas, dry air, mild four seasons. Good-bye city life. Brown acres we are there . . . .
Desert living IS sustainable if you adapt to the climate and stop pretending you still live in the midwest.
I do water catchment, have thousands of gallons in holding capacity, have no lawn (what a joke), do plenty of gardening and, and practice aggressive water conservation.
This is not the practice in the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas. Folks still water their bionic deserts (lawns) and golf courses. In Phoenix, SRP floods entire neighborhoods with obscene amonts of water. The boonies are covered in water sucking cotton fields. Conservationists say the end is near but nobody is listening as the desert dwellers continue with their water wasting ways.
If the locals would learn to harness the monsoon rains and s-a-v-e this liquid bounty, water problems would be negligible.
Do you use your water for consumption? If so, do you do anything to keep undesirable things from growing in it?
“If the locals would learn to harness the monsoon rains and s-a-v-e this liquid bounty, water problems would be negligible.”
It’s not the locals who won’t learn. It’s the idiot realtards and insurance agents they elect as city council persons.
Besides, if a dam were built or an old quarry were used as a catchment it might offend someone or something and we can’t have anyone getting offended, can we?
BTW, theres about 9g/kg water vapor in the air I’m breathing right now. The ultimate problem isn’t water, it’s energy.
So I am in Tokyo right now and since everyone is so keen on comparing the present US situation to the Japanese in the early 90’s right after their giant RE bubble, here are some local observations
The We Are Not As Bad As Japan dept:
1) The Japanese RE bubble was so huge at its peak in the late 80’s it makes the US RE bubble look like just a moderate overvaluation by comparison. Even today, Tokyo apartments like the one my sister has, a one and half bedroom (about 750 SF) costs nearly a million US. This is AFTER 20 years of falling prices. Can you imagine what the price was at the peak of their cycle? Like a gazillion?
2) The Japanese gov’t, like its people, are conservative by nature and took them a long, long time to face the music. They supposedly didn’t even look at the bank’s balance sheet until almost 10 years after the RE bubble burst, just pretending everything was fine and told sheeple there is nothing to worry about.
3) The native population is in decades of decline, and since they don’t want any outside immigration, there is no increase demand for RE over all these time. No demand = no pricing power, simple as that.
We Are Worse Than Japan dept:
1) Americans save nothing, where as the Japanese saves a ton. I mean supposedly Japan’s GDP declined by 12% last quarter but you wouldn’t believe that walking the street here. Women are dressed as fashionable as ever and tons of BMW, Mercedes, Porsche and even Maserati & Bentley’s are not uncommon sight. Thus even if their GDP sucks and unemployment is rising and RE & stock market have not gone up in 20 years, they have a ton of dead money earning no interest but still heck a lot better than a no-saving American by comparison. They can still buy the luxury items if they wanted to.
2) Japanese exporters are a force to be reckon with and their exporting multi-nationals have much broader reach in emerging Asia than US brands, which I believe will be the first to recover.
I do not know if the US will face 20 years of lost economic growth like over here despite the Fed’s action to reinflate, but the other possible outcome of hyperinflation, I don’t think it’s any better in comparison. We are screwed nevertheless.
BTW, an interesting thing I saw on the Tokyo subway, they have this “women-only” subway cars. I asked my sis why that is, they said it is an anti-groping car, apparently some Japanese men let their hands “wonder” during those crazy morning rush hours and feel up their women’s various body parts.
It’s hilarious to say the least, but that’s just from a male chauvinistic point of view.
Lotsa countries have this - Turkey, Mexico, India, etc.
We would have it here too if congress had to ride the subway.
Actually, there is a “Congress only” subway. It runs underground from their office building to the Capitol building.
Here in Boston groping on the T is a regular way of life.
Some think its a god given right.
Things are so bad around XGSfixers world, that I’ve taken to groping myself.
Any port in a storm………
ROTFLMAO!!!
I read an article that Japan is paying Japanese from other countries who came to Japan to work $3000 dollars to leave and never come back.
That’s a pretty measly offer. Barely pays for the airfare home.
Of course they like Japanese-Brazilian Soccer players. Caught part of the Japan-Bahrain World Cup qualifier last night. The Japanese have a player whose name on his jersey was simply “Tulio”.
Those people of Japanese origin from overseas (Brazil is the biggest source) are sort of Japan’s version of Mexicans in the US. They look like the locals, of course, but many have poor knowledge of Japanese and the locals consider them foreigners. That’s about as close as they get to immigration there.
How are the blossoms? Lucky you!
BTW - “just pretending everything was fine and told sheeple there is nothing to worry about.” (item # 2)
Do you think that’s really something where we’re better off in the handling of this?
Well in the US we KNOW something is wrong and it stinks to high heavens, the gov’t has acknowledged as much. The attempt to bail out and change accounting rules in order fix this, not so much.
The sakura didn’t come out at all even now, due to cold winter in Japan for this year, so looks like I will miss it.
Get a free boat before you are priced out forever. I always wanted a boat because I love saltwater fishing, but I know they are expensive toys so I never got it. Now they are seemingly free, maybe I can salvage one of these throw-aways, put it in a warehouse rental for a few months and use it later?
NY Times
March 31, 2009
They often sandpaper over the names and file off the registry numbers, doing their best to render the boats, and themselves, untraceable. Then they casually ditch the vessels in the middle of busy harbors, beach them at low tide on the banks of creeks or occasionally scuttle them outright.
The bad economy is creating a flotilla of forsaken boats. While there is no national census of abandoned boats, officials in coastal states are worried the problem will only grow worse as unemployment and financial stress continue to rise. Several states are even drafting laws against derelicts and say they are aggressively starting to pursue delinquent owners.
“Our waters have become dumping grounds,” said Maj. Paul R. Ouellette of the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. “It’s got to the point where something has to be done.”
MOUNT PLEASANT, S.C. — Boat owners are abandoning ship.
Some homeless folks ought to lash these boats together and create their own “Water World”.
LOL!
Yeah and they can name “Mariner” as their leader showing them toward economic dryland! ( I could be adrift w/ Jean Tripplehorn? )
When I went sailing with a friend in Santa Barbara, there were quite a few people who “lived on their boats”. Sailed, fished from the sea, and went onshore to take the occasional shower at a gym.
In a temperate climate, it’s pretty doable.
That’s a great idea! And in the middle of the night, we can cut them free and float our homeless problem out to sea!
They aren’t “homeless”, they’re “under-performing consumers”.
j/k
“That’s a great idea! And in the middle of the night, we can cut them free and float our homeless problem out to sea!”
And you’re joking again right?
Your contempt for least among us is sickeningly transparent but do proceed with the denial and backpedaling…….. again.
No! I’m not joking! You won’t see any backpedaling or denial!
In the 80s I worked in Louisianna, south of Lafayette. Had opportunity to cruise the swamp with a friend to help him run his crawfish traps. There are (were) still people living out there on raft shacks. Life cannot get much more frugal, and you will never starve to death.
I lived on my boat for eight months last year, based at a dock in a small NYS city. It is a cheap simple lifestyle. Ice does put a stop to this in my area for most (not all).
Where I live in Florida there’s an armada of drifters who live on their old sailboats. They live in the intracoastal waterway so they don’t have to pay any marina fees & motor in on their dingies daily to drink beer & buy supplies.
We have a ton of these boats that have been abandoned. The work required to get them ship-shape is way more than just buying something new.
The article and all this talk about boats lead me to my periodic daydreaming search on ebay for a classic wooden Chris Craft, and I came across this one as an alternative to NYC rent.
(I hope I added the link correctly.)
oops - no:
Anyway, it’s item number: 130296904743
So I had some fun. In our town we have an area known as Ghent. Ghent is where the trendy types live in Norfolk. There was a Wal*Mart under construction elsewhere, so I took a picture of the sign that said “Future home of Super Wal*Mart.” Sent it off and bought a new sign that looked identical, minus the Super. I had intended to put it on this spot in that trendy area and watch the people go nuts.
But my partner in crime got in a motorcycle accident (hit and run). Then I had a similar injury, so the sign sat in the closet.
Until last night. She went up on the fence of a failed condo tower in Norfolk. The goal was for it to be there this morning. Except the news latched onto it last night. It’s made the paper and television, I’m told. Had the reporter not called the builder than it’d probably still be there, but it was removed a few hours. But was up long enough that it’s still creating buzz. Too funny.
Now I’ve got to top it next year.
lol that is awesome.
No matter where I am, I have a tendency to pull and read the real estate fliers attached to for sale signs. To my dismay, there are actually several areas in this Country where ppl list the distance and time to the nearest Walmart on the flier itself as a selling point.
Superior April Foolery even if it happened on March 31st.
Oh so many years ago, a hotly protested condo project in Malibu, “le Mer,” (sic) got its sign mysteriously reconfigured on April 1st with a can of spray paint–the added “de”
thereby correcting its sheety grammar as well as its provenence.
sigh, provenience.
Provenance (Fr: provenir = “to come from”)
No, Puss. I meant “provenience.”
Perhaps you’ve been hanging out with too many interior design professionals.
Now that’s funny!
Here’s a good one from the NY Times:
Boats Too Costly to Keep Are Littering Coastlines
Apparently, people are starting to realize the difference between luxuries and necessities.
Boats rarely make sense. I see a number of people here and there with boats in their driveways that they may take out 6 times a year. Surely, renting a boat those 6 times would be cheaper.
I think 6 times a year is being generous. That only applies to the really serious boaters, for whom boating is their main off-hours activity around which everything else revolves. For the rest, where the boat is just one of the many high-priced toys, 1-2 times a year at best is what I see.
They probably get “used” a lot more than twice a year…they just don’t get taken out of their mooring. The astute observer will notice a lot of rocking going on during weekday afternoons as owners, friends of owners and friends of friends of owners avoid the complications of renting a motel room.
I know two people who are serious sailors - their life and entire schedule revolves around it.
Both sail 5+ times a week!
They are different, the rest are posers.
Both sail 5+ times a week!
“They are different, the rest are posers”.
True, I race/crew on one design and offshore IOR/MORC sailboats 40 plus weekends a year and have done so for over 40 years. Grew up doing it.
Several years ago we bought out one of the partners in a 3-way ownership of a nine year old party barge (pontoon boat) on the lake here. Couple grand was all, and the shared annual expenses (slip fee, insurance, registration, engine servicing) averages less than $400 per year per partner.
A full day on the water consumes less than 10 gallons of gas- and a lot less if we beach the boat on an island for the better part of the day.
Still watching craigslist for a steal on a PWC.
Buddy of mine & I own a 19ft center console that we keep in dry storage for $100 bucks a month apiece. He was never using it so I bought in. We take it out about every other weekend now.
I think it would be neat to own one, but would worry about costs and maintenance. I’d be likely to hack it with a full autopilot system. It’d be neat to be able to go diving from it, but you still have to have others to stay with the boat. I guess it’s easier to just hang out with friends that have boats.
I’ve got the best boat in the world: a friend with a sailboat. He needs crew regularly since he races it, so I get to get out on the water as often as I wish, with zero cost, maintenance, or headaches. Actually, that’s not strictly true about it being zero cost—I make sure to always show up with beer and something to contribute in the lunch category.
If you enjoy being on the water but aren’t in the 5+ times per week category, it’s a great way to go.
why buy a boat? if you want to experience the thrill of sailboat racing, stand in a cold shower and tear up hundred dollar bills!
I lived on my sailboat in Dana Point, CA…that was fun!
I wonder how Crissy Cox is enjoying his Gov’t pension in “The O.C.” …get on down to Fascist Island and “stimulate that O.C. GOP Economy” Crissy!
“Oh, say can you O.C. by the dawn’s early light
What so proudly we hailed at the twilight’s last gleaming?”
“…Boater’s World is holding going-out-of-business sales at all of its 129 locations in 27 states, according to a press release from the liquidators of the chain.”
“Ritz Camera Centers Inc., which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in February, owns Boater’s World.”
Retailer going out of business, closing O.C. store:
March 25th, 2009 OC Register… posted by Hang Nguyen, retail reporter
# Store Closures:
* Outdoor retailer closes O.C. store
* Ann Taylor to close more stores
* Sears to close O.C. store
* Store at The Lab mall to close
* Another big store at The Block closes
* Quiksilver to close 25 stores
* Surf shop at The Block closes
* Bella Terra store closes
* Goodbye Limited Too
* Gap, Old Navy, Banana Republic owner to close more stores
Last weekend my husband went into the local RItz Camera to check for going-out-of-business bargains. There were none. The camera he recently bought from B&H was listed for $400 more at the soon-to-be-defunct Ritz. They weren’t willing to deal on anything.
He told the guy behind the counter that it was no wonder they were going out of business.
50% off our 200% markup of our regular 400% markup!
Same for Circuit City.
I just bought this one thing because I needed it right away. Otherwise, everything was just cheaper online.
Brick and Mortar is dead.
I’m looking for an office space to use as a “hacker lab” between a group of friends. Everyone wants $12/sqft for flex space (part office, part warehouse). There is *NO* shortage of places. Every building has a for lease sign, and not just for leads.
Meanwhile no one will come down to our price level (which isn’t that out of line). When I see stores going out of business, and see the asking rents for the floor space ($22/sqft?) I think, “Why aren’t they working on building a better website? Who would waste time with a retail store if it isn’t emergency items or food?.”
Sometimes you REALLY need to touch or operate whatever it is you are buying. Then go look for the lowest price on line.
——————————————
Why aren’t they working on building a better website? Who would waste time with a retail store if it isn’t emergency items or food?.”
I don’t know if this of interest to anyone, but we keep getting these increasingly dire emails at the University of Washington. The size of the proposed cuts are staggering.
Dear Students, Faculty, and Staff:
As you have likely heard, the Washington State Senate and House of
Representatives earlier this week released their operating budget
proposals for the 2009-2011 biennium. While we expected significant new cuts, the Legislative budget reductions are dramatic and disturbing. All of higher education will be severely impacted should these proposals
pass. For the University of Washington, the Senate has proposed a state
budget cut of nearly 23 percent, or $189 million, while the House has
proposed even deeper cuts of 31 percent, or $260 million. These cuts are worse than we had anticipated, and although they could be mitigated somewhat with federal stimulus funds and tuition increases, they still represent a serious challenge to our ability to serve our state.
remember pre paid plans? what do they do about those as tuition goes up and states are broke. Funny they turned out to be the great deal at 4% ? or
vs. stock/bond based
If the tuition-bubble crashes, they may not turn out to have been such a great deal after all…
My oldest daugher will be graduating high school in 15 months (Thank God it isn’t three months).
Things really are in flux. Like many on the HBB, we’ve saved, so that isn’t an issue, but what will the schools be like when she gets there? Will the public colleges be swamped by kids who can’t afford private, and sunk by budget cuts, meaning it takes 8 years to meet the requirements?
Will the private colleges be swamped by the idiot sons and daughers of those who successfully stole enough money in bubble era to pay the freight, as falling endowments cut financial aid AND school quality (but not gold plating and waste)?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/31/education/31college.html
But my bigger worry is my younger daughter, a high school freshman. The Obama stimulus might keep the schools functioning through her junior year, but its end and soaring pension costs probably mean no senior year to speak of.
What’s the real question?!?
She will graduate from school somewhere assuming she is smart enough. She can always transfer. And it seems to me that you have the dough.
So what’s the freakin’ problem?
Sorry, I’m completely failing to see even the slightest bit of a “crisis” in your claim. There seems to be mad panic with absolutely no rationale to back it up.
No crisis, just a concern.
And I’m glad we aren’t facing any decisions now, before things have a chance to shake out.
Think about it.
If everybody applies to state schools because they can’t afford to go private, than the state schools will become more competitive and will have comparatively “better” student bodies.
If anyone should be worried, it’s the private schools. They’re bound to get fewer applications because of their high prices, and really the only types of people that will be able to go to American private schools in a few years will be those that are wealthy enough to pay out of pocket.
“…The size of the proposed cuts are staggering.”
Ha,
Let’s see how things are going for those workers in America making upwards of $6.50 an hour…Oh, here’s an example: (ALSO INCLUDES; $66,000 for lawyers to pay their $16.00 paralegals for doing most of the “footwork” for the local citizen/taxpayer remedial justice)
From “The O.C.” nonetheless!
Geez, being a school superintendent must be a very, very, very, difficult job!
Thursday, March 26, 2009
By RASHI KESARWANI
The Orange County Register
Capistrano school district rejects ex-chief’s claim of $487,000:
“…Carter earned $273,000 annually, meaning he would receive $409,500 over 18 months. The $487,000 he seeks includes benefits.”
“…Carter’s contract itself was surrounded by controversy. First, the initial contract was modified without the Board of Trustees’ knowledge – with the following sentence added: “If the Trustees fire the Superintendent, he is entitled to 18 months compensation pay.”
“…Trustees also adopted the contract in a Feb. 25 closed session and failed to report their action properly – actions the District Attorney’s Office later said violated the state’s open meeting law.”
Elsewhere in America, we have this Sit-U-Ation:
California governor = $208,000…
On the other end of the governor salary ranking, we have the governor of Maine, who earns only $70,000 per year. That political office hasn’t seen a raise in 20 years! Maine Governor John Baldacci actually saw a decrease in pay of $80,000/year in 2003 when he decided to give up his seat in the U.S. House of Representatives and become governor. Balducci’s own assistant reportedly earned more than he did in 2005, with an annual salary of $102,000. Governor Baldacci actually opposed a pay raise for himself in 2006, but supported a raise for the state’s teachers. Why isn’t he running for President?
Uuummmm,
Not a big fan of Arnie the man. He is not taking any pay. I believe he also pays the cost of fly his own plane to and from Sacramento.
I graduated from the UW in ‘83 with an engineering B.S. degree. I had 1/2 of one “plant trip” in that recession year: meaning the interviewing company paid a couple hundred dollars to divert me on my way home from a student technical conference.
Worse, I had to sit on the plane next to some east coast electrical engineering graduate on the western half of his 24 company tour.
The next year, I got a great job with the big local aerospace firm, even though they stood me up for the first scheduled at-school interview. (Perhaps it is hard to take an interviewing trip seriously if it doesn’t require a Travel Authorization?)
So, basically, in the recession of 25 years ago we had to walk uphill both ways in Seattle drizzle to get jobs out of the U.W. Hopefully it will be better this time.
OK, forget Meredith Whitney. I am so over her. This time I’m really in love:
Angela Merkel: Voice of Reason
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/04/angela_merkel_voice_of_reason.html
Not me……to me, Meredith is the Real Deal.
Went to my uncle’s funeral this weekend, at ground zero of the Oklahoma blizzard this weekend…….on the way home, my cousin’s wife calls me: “HEY!!!!! We found you a woman down here! But you are going to have to come back here, and pull her out of the ditch!!!”
About as funny as the story from another cousin, about the USAF wanting him to sign off on the “color match” of dirt.
I wonder if Senator Ted Stevens had some dirt on Senator Barack Obama….
Well the failure to notify his counsel occurred prior to Obama being elected. I wonder if the Justice Dept didn’t intentionally scuttle the case. They look good during the case and they know that when they leave office the case will get overturned. Problem solved.
I know! Ted and Michelle were secretly having an affair and Obama was trying to have Ted killed, while making it look like a suicide.
Oh sorry, you nimrod’s used that one before.
LOL
lmao…. nimrods [yuppppp!]
It seems like the prosecutors just screwed up. The big item is that they had an interview with a contractor who told them the value of something was a certain amount and then at trial said the value was a higher amount. So, the question is just how much graft Stevens took but he took it.
Dirt not required. This is just good lawyering or rather good prosecuting. Prosecutors shouldn’t waste the public’s money fighting appeals that they are guaranteed to lose. And I don’t know how attorneys are evaluated over at Justice, but having a big win on your list can’t hurt. The lawyers who screwed up are now denied that big win…forever.
G-20 protesters break into Royal Bank of Scotland
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g97rsFx3dbUHPQSoLAaXQa97RGBwD979N0L00
Yeah, baby, now we’re talkin’!!!
Riots in the first world. It’s not over until there is blood in the streets.
Hang’em high. Protest=constesting established power structures=true democracy
I’m not in favor of ultra-violence, but yeah, there should be a helluva lot more first world protests. The government should fear the people, not vice versa.
true democracy = mob rule and always ends in poverty and tyranny. Majority vote is not a valid source of authority.
yak.
This is a sign that it might soon be time to start looking around for a house to buy, IMO. But I am going to wait until this happens in LA again (”Can’t we all just get along?”)…
“Fearing they would be targeted by protesters, some bankers swapped their pinstripe suits for casual wear and others stayed home. Bolder financial workers leaned out their office windows Wednesday, taunting demonstrators and waving 10 pound notes at them.”
“Bolder financial workers leaned out their office windows Wednesday, taunting demonstrators and waving 10 pound notes at them.”
LOL! Yea fan the fires rise the ire of the po azz little people and professional protesters!
Even though I am in sympathy with the protesters, there is something delightfully anarchic about this taunting gesture. It appeals to the same portion of me that likes trainwrecks and things blowing up.
Even better, in this modern age we will get to SEE the anarchy online!
HELP WANTED: Agent provocateur
Taunting like that only works in the City because you are guaranteee no one is carrying a fire arm.
On Wall*Street you would have to worry about the random law enforcement agent that lost all his money.
Even though I am in sympathy with the protesters, there is something delightfully anarchic about this taunting gesture.
Even though I don’t believe in violence, I would grin ear-to-ear if I heard that a few of the pound-wavers got their arses stomped when they went home for the day.
“there is something delightfully anarchic about this taunting gesture.”
+1!
“Even better, in this modern age we will get to SEE the anarchy online!”
It will be interesting to watch it from a nice SAFE distance. NIMBY!
Somehow, the taunting with the ten pound note reminded me a bit of “Let them eat CAKE!”
CNBC reported that the RBS Bankers posted signs that read “While you are looting our office, we will be foreclosing on your home.”
Gotta love it!
“Gotta love it!”
Every second of it. Larry Kudlow and his cast of idiots, corporatists, and moneychanging thieves take note. You’re next.
That is beautiful. Really it is. It’s like a fine wine of yin and yang. I mean, what good are rioters if there is nothing to antagonize them?
Ex,
Americans are too lazy to riot over this stuff. Perhaps if they were “stimulized” into doing it they might.
It’s like a fine wine of yin and yang.
Isn’t it just too bloody delightful for words?
The protesters are FB’s and the bankers are wankers. They deserve each other like a married co-dependent alcoholic couple.
They
deserveneed each other like a married co-dependent alcoholic couple.I’m pasting the following just because I wanna see it again.
“While you are looting our office, we will be foreclosing on your home.”
lmao
Professional protesters, there should be a league!
The APL The Acorn Protesters League
There could be stats, leads the league in arrests, MVP most valuable protester an All Star protest, free agency a Satellite Radio deal. The possibilities are endless.
I think we’re starting to get to the part where the popcorn is really handy.
Up until now, It’s been a long series of trailers, “coming soon”, plus a hanful of mini clips. I think the main feature may now be starting, though. Down in front!
“Bolder financial workers leaned out their office windows Wednesday, taunting demonstrators and waving 10 pound notes at them.”
Wow - that’s just titanic douchebaggery. They did the profession proud.
I’ve been telling my broker for some time now to have a UPS jacket in his office for an occasion just like this.
Mike
“taunting demonstrators and waving 10 pound notes at them.”
Coming from a family that participated in two civil wars and one revolution in the past 70 years, and was on the losing side all three times (I have a small family, as I am sure you can imagine) all I can say is, please continue to wave more ten pound notes.
Muir,
Can you please tell us the name or where the civil wars and revolution occurred.
Spain, Cuba (right idea, wrong execution of idea, ultimately, wrong side)
“Some protesters spray-painted the side of the RBS building with the phrases “class war” and “thieves.” Others pushed against columns of riot police who swatted them away with batons.”
I wonder if any of these “protesters” bought a house in the last 5 years? And if so, did they tell the truth on their loan applications?
Just before I hit the add comment, the news said that some of the “protesters” were holding up camcorders. Bought from a refi perhaps.
These protesters are just the same “rent-a-mob” that appear at all of these types of gatherings. Nothing new here.
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Contracts for 14th Month (Update1)
By Courtney Schlisserman
April 1 (Bloomberg) — Manufacturing in the U.S. contracted for a 14th straight month in March as factories kept on cutting production amid the economic downturn that this month becomes the longest since the Great Depression.
The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 36.3 last month from 35.8 in February. Readings less than 50 signal a contraction.
Factories continue to trim payrolls and scale back output and investment as the global recession and the housing and credit crises sap demand for their goods. While consumer spending showed signs of a rebound early this year, the now 17- month U.S. slump surpasses similar contractions in the 1970s and 1980s as the longest in more than seven decades.
“The pace of decline is slowing down, that’s important,” David Wyss, chief economist with Standard & Poor’s in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “It is too early to look for a turnaround, but maybe it is time to start saying that things are not getting as bad as quickly as they were earlier.”
Economists forecast the institute’s manufacturing measure would increase to 36, according to the median of 74 projections. Estimates ranged from 30 to 39.
The ISM’s gauge of new orders rose to 41.2 from 33.1 the prior month. The measure of export orders rose to 39 from 37.5 in February.
The group’s employment index rose to 28.1 from 26.1, which was the lowest since record-keeping began in 1948.
I don’t know if this has already been posted; more hilarity from the Onion –
http://www.theonion.com/content/news/new_linens_n_shit_opens
If you like Glenn Beck, don’t miss this!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/01/stephen-colbert-rips-apar_n_181673.html
LOL
It was lovely.
And here’s another good one from the Wall Street Journal:
Foreclosures Trap Translators in Middle
Just speaking for myself, if I were living in a foreign country and didn’t speak the language, what business would I have taking out loan?
If you got a free option to gamble with bank’s money, you might.
Home Prices Low, but Still No Bargain (WSJ):
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123853857749575441.html
Mark-to-Market Purity Will Wipe Out Banks
By Jim Cramer
About this article:
Is there a writer out there who thinks more liberal mark to market isn’t the greatest sin the regulators could ever pull off? Is there one? Today I see stories about how perfuming balance sheets is a terrible idea and reckless. I see stories about how liberal mark to market will confound the Treasury’s Private Partnership plan. I see stories about how crummy bankers and corrupt pols browbeat the Financial Accounting Standards Board into giving away the store. Have these people looked at the alternatives? Have they seen how we could wipe out every bank, good and bad, if we don’t show forbearance? Have they seen how poorly this system has worked that it took down the “good” and “prudent” banks with the reckless ones? Does anyone really think that JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon is a terrible banker that deserves to have his bank taken away…
Sadly, after checking with Google, this is not an April fools joke.
Junkies are always serious about their habit.
I tried to deduct a bunch of old stuff to a charity, and deducted $200Gs on my taxes, because I “marked it to model”.
The IRS disagreed, marked it to market, said it was worth $200 bucks.
Hi all,
Very long time, no post (I read the HBB on my blackberry so I can’t really post). My colleague is in Las Vegas at a conference and just called me to see which developments he should check out to get a taste of the housing bubble disaster out there. Given you all recently had your meet-up in LV, could you help me guide him? He’s staying on the strip but has a rental car and wants to get a feel for the partially abandoned developments, areas with huge levels of inventory, etc. Any suggestions would be great!
FWIW, I just got back from a vacation in Buenos Aires. They’re still popping up the condos in Puerto Madero like it’s Miami 2005.
Hi lauderdalian:
I have no idea where we went on the tour - I just went along for the ride and being completely directionally impaired that was probably a good thing. But Lavi D did a preliminary tour mock up for us that I doubt he would mind sharing. (We didn’t get close to hitting all these spots but managed a few highlights.) This might give your friend a few ideas.
http://tinyurl.com/cdhkkf
Hope this helps!
Wow, obviously Sebelius is a lying tax cheat. Just look at these “mistakes”…
1. Charitable contributions over $250 are supposed to include an acknowledgment letter from the charity in order for a deduction to be taken. Out of 49 charitable contributions made, three letters couldn’t be found.
What a cheapskate! She only made 49 charitable contributions. And to add insult to injury, 3 had no letters! Jail this woman!
2. Sebelius and her husband took deductions for mortgage interest that they weren’t entitled to. The couple sold their home in 2006 for less than what they owed on the mortgage. They continued to make payments on the mortgage, including interest. But since they no longer owned the home they weren’t entitled to take deductions for the interest. The same thing happened with a home improvement loan. Sebelius said they “mistakenly believed” the payments were still deductible.
Outrageous! They weren’t even smart enough to walk away and bone the bank, like most did! Jail this woman!
3. Insufficient documentation was found for some business expense deductions.
You have to be shitting me. What decent business cannot document each and every penny they’ve spent? Jail this woman!
All of these outrageous “mistakes” total a WHOPPING $7,000 which must have been a HUGE portion of her family income over the last 3 years. Clearly this woman is a major tax cheat.
Jail this woman. And for God’s sake don’t let her run Health and Human Services.
BORING. NEXT.
It was so boring you responded to it???
Yes, because we all can’t be p*rch monkeys!
Sebelius has never had an original idea in her life, owes her career by being part of the family business (politics).
Bored ? Well, how about Rash Limpbaughs giving the one finger salute to his founding loudmouth radio city station: “I HATE NYC!”
3-31-09:
RUSH: “Well, I announced that I was officially vacating New York after these stupid, punitive, massive tax increases, and basically I go to New York now for hurricane relief, whenever a hurricane hits. No other reason to go there. Well, sometimes I visit the overrated staff, but it would be cheaper to fly the staff down here to visit me than to pay these stupid tax increases! Anyway, the point is that I have affiliates from all over the fruited plain now offering their studios as a hurricane relocation location. Well, we’re not going to go to Hawaii, that’s certainly not a no-income tax state, either. We’re not going to California. We’re not going anywhere that pays massive taxes and they audit people left and right. That is a no go. Besides, if we did Hawaii, Dawn, the show would start at six a.m. I’d have to get up at midnight for show prep. I love Hawaii, now, don’t misunderstand, but for me Hawaii is not for work.”
“Greetings, my friends, welcome, great to have you back, Rush Limbaugh, the EIB Network and the Limbaugh Institute for Advanced Conservative Studies. Telephone number is 800-282-2882. The e-mail address, ElRushbo@eibnet.com.”
His radio sign off to “Joe Public”: “You don’t even have to think…I’ll think for yoooooooouuuuu!
“On August 1, 1988, after achieving success in Sacramento and drawing the attention of a former president of ABC Radio, Edward F. McLaughlin, Limbaugh moved to New York City and began his national radio show. His show debuted just weeks after the Democratic National Convention, and just weeks before the Republican National Convention. Limbaugh’s radio home in New York City was the talk-format station WABC, 770 AM, and continues to this day as his flagship station.
Just cut all the rest of us the same slack (or better, since we’re not public figures), and we’ll call it good.
+1
B’rep- I usually enjoy your propaganda and POV, but making excuses for a tax cheat is really the height of hypocrisy. Honestly, if she was Bush appointee, I find in EXTREMELY hard to believe that you would be cutting her slack, and impossible to believe that you would actually post about it to defend her. Your going to get tired defending this administration’s every move for the next 4 years. Admitting the truth and not spinning it will set you free, your D spin is no better than the ridiculous R spin we got for the previous 8 years. New boss = old Boss.
Here’s a little secret “They are all cheaters and liars.” Having a “D” or “R” or “I” after your name doesn’t matter. If you let it matter, you are seriously clouding your own judgment.
Propaganda? That hurts RES! LOL. But when I read the headlines about these “mistakes” I really thought…here we go again, too. But as I read the specifics, I feel these could have been honest mistakes. Most of the $7,000 was related to the disallowed interest deduction. I probably would have made the same mistake. And if pushed for paperwork for every charity I ever gave money (or stuff) too, I might also be hard pressed to come up with everything. This is a lot different from some of the other Dem and Puke tax issues, which I did not defend. I just think this one is reaching a bit.
$7,000 was a drop in the bucket compared to what her and her husband make. I just see the difference. Now, Tom Daschle? That was WAY OVER THE TOP. Total tax cheat.
But please find any post by me that defended Daschle, or the others. I didn’t.
I also do not share your view about all politicians being corrupt. What if you or I became one? Wouldn’t we also be labeled corrupt, and liars? I agree there are serious problems in both parties, but I haven’t become so cynical that every person that runs for office is automatically a bad guy. I haven’t thrown in the towel COMPLETELY on this country just yet. But I am getting there!
I will defend the actions of this admin if I feel they warrant defending. And I have already made several posts critical of some of the moves they have made. Now please find me some posts from the resident Republicans that actually call the Bush admin out for this giant mess they played a huge role in creating. I didn’t see any. The sad truth is these people had no problem looking the other way while chimp drove this nation into a ditch, but they have all sorts of outrage for the current admin.
It’s bullshit.
I would finally like to add that I think the entire bailout is a complete screw-up, and I wish Obama and Company didn’t continue to push it. But I also understand he has to do something. I am also not ready to attack the clean-up crew for the giant mess the previous mess left them.
But that’s just me!
So let me get this straight: US and Japanese confidence is hitting record lows, but if central banks pump in enough money, confidence will be restored and growth to the sky can resume anew?
Is that pretty much the essence of the recovery plan that has been set forth by central bankers Bernanke and Geithner?
“Is that pretty much the essence of the recovery plan…”
“The high rests upon the low” Lao Tzu… 500 BCE
Are we there yet, are we there yet?
Don’t forget the mark to fantasy accounting trickery thats going to save us all!!!
I guess you run into trouble when your budget is based on inflated house prices and fraud.
West Palm Beach budget gap soars, forcing deeper cuts
By TONY DORIS
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, April 01, 2009
WEST PALM BEACH — City officials say the $8.2 million budget gap they expected for next year has soared to $12 million.
That means the cuts they’ve been making to stay in the black will have to go deeper, the efficiencies they’ve been trying to create will have to yield greater savings and the seats they’ve left unfilled are less likely to see warm bodies - if it stops there.
The city had expected lower tax revenues from a projected 10 percent drop in property values. But new projections from the county and state indicate that the city’s take from property and sales taxes and other sources likely will drop as much as 15 percent.
The NY Times had a story yesterday on how paying in full and not asking for financial aid was helping students get into “better” colleges
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/31/education/31college.html?_r=1&scp=5&sq=college%20admissions&st=cse
I wonder if the college tuition cost story has a lesson for the government bail-out issue in the news now. Without the federal government providing loan money, college costs couldn’t have run up the way they have. I know a few young people, the children of friends and relatives, who will come out of college with debt almost double the mortgage on our first home back in 1980. I remember it was hard to pay bills and we had jobs; these young people can’t hope for much of a job with a BA.
Maybe without the federal loan money, a lot more small colleges would have gone out of business sooner? Is there a national interest in keeping them in business? Just as GM would have done better with fewer brands and fewer models, maybe higher education should consolidate? Politicians talk up “education” all the time. People make bad decisions like buying houses they should know they cannot afford, taking out home equity loans against paper profits that can disappear. Its a bad decision to put yourself $40,000, $60,000, $80,000 in debt (with parents on the hook, too, for a lot of it) to get a psychology degree. The loan money means the federal government facilitates bad decisions made by very young people.
Taleb quote from Bloomberg
I don’t understand why I as a taxpayer need to subsidize those who failed, by giving them options so they can rebuild their balance sheets,” he said. “Taxpayers take the downside and Wall Street as usual is going to take the upside, another classical problem of socializing the losses, privatizing the gains.”
Taleb said it’s “shocking” that the government would allow banks to estimate the value of the toxic assets that remain on their books because there is effectively no market for the securities, making them almost impossible to value.
“I don’t understand letting banks mark to market, after all this incompetence,” he said. “Why don’t we allow people to mark their house at what they think the value of their house is?”
I love the last part. They should just allow owners to value their house at what they wish it was worth. Then the banks could continue to give them home equity loans. Brilliant!
As long as you could buy it for say, 120% of their estimate…
Holy crap! I love it! You go GMAC, get back to lending to those that don’t repay, that’s bound to get things going again!
GMAC to resume car loans to subprime borrowers…
By Jonathan Stempel and Soyoung Kim
NEW YORK/DETROIT (Reuters) - GMAC Financial Services said it will resume making car and truck loans to subprime borrowers and will lower inventory financing costs for cash-strapped auto dealers, part of a series of moves intended to spur sales at General Motors Corp.
The moves announced Wednesday come as the embattled automaker races to restructure and get customers back into its showrooms amid growing risk that it will be pushed into bankruptcy by the Obama administration.
GM, whose U.S. sales plunged 51 percent in the first two months of this year, also began rolling out a program that will cover some payments for customers who lose their jobs after buying a car, an incentive intended to bring back shoppers worried about job security amid the recession.
GMAC, which provides financing to many GM vehicle buyers, said it would make at least $5 billion of credit available to customers over the next 60 days, a period during which GM has to prove to U.S. officials it can win sweeping concessions from bondholders and its major union.
The finance company plans to resume accepting finance applications from car and truck buyers who have credit scores below 620, a line dividing prime borrowers from less creditworthy subprime borrowers. The median U.S. credit score is 723, according to Fair Isaac Corp’s myFICO unit
The timing of this announcement (assuming this is today’s news) is interestingly coincident with forced CEO change. I wonder if the old regime resisted doing this.
Wed Apr. 1, 2009 12:34pm EDT (Reuters)
GMAC is majority owned by Cerberus so it’s their call, though I wonder if they got some heat from GM or the guvmint to do it.
A few more shots of wiskey ought to make this hangover disappear.
After several weeks of searching, I decided to buy a home.
Where?
Oh please, it’s Apr 1st, like we’re gonna fall for that ol’ canard.
Try again!
The owner is giving away a brand new Hummer.
Buy now or be priced out forever. Renters are losers. People everywhere are snapping up homes. Don’t be left out because prices are going up up up. It’s a great investment you won’t regret. And the children!!! Don’t forget the children!!!!!
But anyone would believe that. That’s like almost a given these days, no?
See, it has to be just barely believable enough.
with a lifetime extended warranty!
The warranty is guaranteed by the government, she said. Plus, I’m only putting 8K out of pocket for the down payment. The government is putting up an additional 8K, a 100% return. Over and above that, I’m getting a 5 pct government guaranteed loan. It’s win, win, win!!!!
mrktMaven, you’re gonna be rich beyond your wildest dreams. You’ll retire at 40 and live in paradise for eternity.
Lifetime of the car or of GM?
Hehe…
Yeah, it is pretty much the same all over. There is a half mil POS down the street that just needs a little TLC. I am tempted to pull the trigger. The bank is offering 105% over/under @ Fed rates + 1% for 40 yrs. I figure now is the time since I my unemployment benefits will only last another couple months and then I won’t have rent money.
With the $8K from the IRS, I figure I can arrange for quite a few hummers.
The only real issue is the Chinese drywall. We’re gonna make a pool out of the sinkhole. Plus, the mold really isn’t that toxic.
I thought the gyp board was made of crushed bone china and the skimcoat was 24k gold.
http://tinyurl.com/cn8z5v
U.S. Feb. pending home sales up 2.1%, trade group says
WTF?>>>> Didn’t they already release Feb09 resales?
Didn’t they already release Feb09 resales?
I had the exact same thought when I saw that this morning.
I also had the thought that we discussed here about how the margin of error was something like +-18% and so it was technically insignificant.
But then I dismissed both thoughts on the basis that the MSM is reliable enough for me to believe them over my own independent thinking. I’m probably just wrong.
Who moved my cheese?
Perhaps the banking queen can slip him some dough, now that Angelo is out of the picture, over at a sun tan bed full time.
Dodd’s AIG Ties, Cash Shortage Threaten Senate Re-Election Bid…
April 1 (Bloomberg) — Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd finds himself in an unlikely spot after three decades representing Connecticut: short on cash and bracing for a tough fight to keep his seat next year.
The Democrat has less than half the campaign cash he had at a comparable point in his last re-election bid, when he faced far fewer hurdles. Last year, he emptied an account built up largely through financial-company employees’ donations to pay for a presidential run; now, he has to replenish his coffers even as the firms his panel regulates struggle with losses and back away from their one-time champion turned critic.
Meanwhile, Dodd, 64, is drawing voters’ ire for inserting a provision into the economic-stimulus plan that had the effect of authorizing American International Group Inc. to pay bonuses to its employees.
“He has a triple-witching hour,” said former Federal Election Commission Chairman Trevor Potter, a Republican. “The industry itself is in trouble. They’re going to be reluctant to give to him because of some of the positions he has taken, and he is going to be reluctant to be funded by them.”
Financial services account for more than 8 percent of his state’s jobs; Connecticut-based firms hold about a third of the global hedge-fund assets under management, according to the Connecticut Hedge Fund Association.
Cash Shortfall
Dodd began the year with $670,654 on hand; by contrast, he had about $1.6 million at the same point in his last Senate race. He ended up spending $5.7 million for his 2004 election after raising a total of $7.1 million, according to the Washington-based Center for Responsive Politics.
Don’t worry B’rpe says he’s a good guy and just made some honest mistakes. IN fact, he is well qualified for a cabinet level position should he not be re-elected.
His challenger (whoever it may be) is high on my list of persons to whom I’ll donate.
Price to fall through 2010, New York to finally join the plunge party, per PMI.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=a_i8BlV5UrnM&refer=home
“PMI, the second largest U.S. mortgage insurer, said 21 of the 50 biggest U.S. metropolitan areas have more than a 75 percent chance of lower home prices in two years. Six others have more than a 50 percent chance, the Walnut Creek, California-based insurer said in a report today.”
“In New Jersey, the Edison-New Brunswick area and Newark have an 89 percent and 84 percent probability, respectively, of lower prices in two years. Nassau-Suffolk in New York has a 78 percent chance; Washington has an 88 percent chance; and Baltimore has an 84 percent chance, according to PMI.”
“The suburbs of New York and D.C. are high-cost areas that had substantial run-ups in prices,” Berson said. “They are the next group down from the sand states.”
“New York City showed a 67 percent chance of declining prices. Portland, Oregon; Minneapolis-St. Paul; Boston; Atlanta; and San Jose, California all had between a 50 percent and 70 percent chance, PMI said.”
I have no doubt many banks are hustling to pay back the BARF money. Turns out that gubmint cheese ain’t gourmet, it sits in a rat trap with many strings attached.
From the Agora 5…
Four different banks paid back their TARP loans yesterday, the first of the lot to do so. Signature Bank of New York; Old National Bancorp of Evansville, Ind.; Iberiabank down in Lafayette, La.; and California’s Bank of Marin paid back a collective $338 million, mostly by repurchasing the shares Uncle Sam bartered in exchange for the capital.
“It became apparent that we should return these funds to the Treasury,” said Signature’s CEO Joseph J. DePaolo. “The return of these funds allows us to continue to execute our business model, which includes the successful recruitment and retention of highly talented banking professionals throughout the metropolitan New York area.”
Nice. This is exactly what we were talking about when discussing executive bonuses back in January.
DePaolo went on to say TARP pressures and restrictions “adversely affected our business model.” In other words, the feds had forced him to borrow taxpayer cash and then hamstrung his ability to pay employees.
If small banks are starting to walk without a government crutch, should we expect those that are “too big to fail” to follow? Heh… not quite yet.
Bankers want to keep their salaries high and thus refuse something that is probably good for shareholders. I’d take the bastard to court.
You have got to be kidding me. The list of banks that are returning the TARP funds will end up being very similar to the list of banks that survive this downturn.
Don’t you think the biggest greed bags are at the biggest banks? Why isn’t Jamie Dimon, or Ken Lewis giving back TARP money so he can go back to making the big money? I’ll tell you why, it’s because BAC and JPM are insolvent!
Sounds like the strings are working.
Comment by aladinsane
2007-03-20 14:54:55
I may sound gloom and doomish to many, but…
This is the time i’ve waited for, for many years now~
I prepared myself for the inevitable, the collapse of an empire, though I doubted it would come so soon, and that it would involve the entire industrial world all @ the same time, like a bonus!
You see, i’m a later day Goldfinger and I need not set off a nuke @ Fort Knox, as my namesake had to resort to, I merely let the Financial Bomb do it for me…
Every currency will go the way of the dodo, once we fail, they all fail.
A scramble for quality will ensue. What will the world turn to?
Hop on board
Heeeee’s baaaaaaaaack!!! lmao
Hey, hope you’re feeling more yourself. How’d the sebatical with the Jesuit priests work for you. Did you find God?
Grand Teton formation building in your asset of choice. Better not watch too closely.
He climbed Mount Ararat like that astronaut to find Noah’s Ark.
“..Did you find God?”:
A Classic film moment: Razors Edge…
Bill Murray, sitting in the ice cave, tearing out the pages of wisdom, crumpling then up & tossing them in the fire to keep warm…
(Hwy smiles, dwelling on how many people are depending on the constancy of 8 minutes of tossed sunlight)
This has to be an April Fools joke?
Is that you PB?
“…What will the world turn to?”
Snickers & Tide detergent, possibly a bottle of Bayer aspirin…and globally, without warning…everyone will start peeling their bananas from the bottom to the top, sadly, they will still taste the same.
gLAD you’re back!!!!
Comment by aladinsane
2007-03-20 17:31:38
We are fast approaching a financial version of World War 2, nobody fights though, it’s going to be a mad scramble for the exits. The only current model that comes to mind is the great hyperinflation in 1948-49, in China.
Everybody is relying on a financial Maginot Line, in which we’ve invested much effort and spared no expense, to rid us of the notion that the word “responsibility” means much, nowadays.
The Squirrels that have gathered the most yellow acorns, get to sit this one out…
When things come a cropper~
HolySh!t, captain. Where have you been hiding? I’m buying a houseboat.
I’v got a 1970 nautaline 34′ that would be perfect for you. 0 down and only 84 monthly payments of say $149.00 and it’s yours
I won’t believe that it’s the real alad until I read a wicked pun or some sufficiently obscure lyrics/song parody!
Yes, unless it is in lyrical form or references an obscure 1970 prog rock song it can’t be true…
What, that he’s as `thick as a brick’?
And it has be on some date other than April 1.
Come back tomorrow, lad.
Welcome back!
Myself and many others missed you.
(though I still think you’re totally wrong and you probably deserve the derision you’ll get as a “gold bug.”)
But, we did genuinely miss you.
(ok, not everyone missed you, some really intelligent people here didn’t miss you, well, at least they SAID that they didn’t miss you, I suspect that even they missed you.)
Glad to see you back.
By the way, are you an April fools joke?
I’m only in country to tie up some loose ends, before I disappear into the ether once again…
You got to do better than that….
p.s.
Why should there be any dersion?
I was 100% correct in my assessment of the situation, as evidenced by the posts from March 20, 2007.
Welcome back alad.
(BTW - you also said this on 3/20/2007, about Wells Fargo):
Wells Fargo stock price March 20, 2007: $38+
Wells Fargo stock price April 1, 2009: $14+
Say “hi” to Jim Morrison for me. I just got done with my lunch with Elvis.
Well tickle my pickle… It’s Boy!!!!
I’m dining with Veronica Lake.
Quite a day all around.
Quite a day. I found out that I am the next Dalai Lama.
Well, shiver me timbers! I had a fortune cookie at lunch that told me I’d be introduced to the Dalai Lama.
Now I have something to talk about at dinner.
hey aladinsane
Dude — This web is world wide. Don’t let foreign residence turn you into a stranger.
I take back all the mean things I said about The Precious. I was just funnin’ ya
April Fools Day right?
No, I think it’s the real McCoy. This blog is like crack.
Dude — Where ya been? I thought about you last weekend when I was on a wilderness backpacking trip with my son…
I’ve been on a walkabout…
Missed you but I saved all your songs.
Do the toilets really swirl backwards?
Not the Maginot line: After a careful study of history, the government has decided to order the navy to park all the carriers in Pearl Harbor and sail out the battleships in order to avoid short term losses.
April 1 (Bloomberg) — Thornburg Mortgage Inc., the “jumbo” residential loan specialist battling a slump in home sales and the collapse of mortgage markets, plans to file for bankruptcy protection and shut down
The beast that wouldn’t die…
Big V –
Is there still a Fremont HBB gathering on Friday? If so, what is the name of the restaurant? I was off-line all last week.
Posting for Big V…
El Burro at 3100 Newpark Mall at 6:30 PM this Friday, April 3rd
KPMG hit with lawsuit over New Century collapse…
Wednesday April 1, 2009, 1:26 pm EDT
MIAMI (Reuters) - Accounting giant KPMG was hit with a billion-dollar lawsuit on Wednesday over claims its “grossly negligent audits” helped trigger the collapse of a top subprime mortgage lender at the start of the U.S. housing crisis.
New Century Financial Corp, the largest independent provider of home loans to people with poor credit, filed for bankruptcy two years ago amid mounting customer defaults.
Its failure rippled across the U.S. mortgage lending industry, sparking a string of other bankruptcies that roiled financial markets as banks booked losses on billions in mortgage-linked securities at the heart of the current global financial crisis.
The lawsuit, on behalf of a liquidating trust formed by New Century debtors, was filed against both KPMG International (KPMG.UL) and its U.S. arm, KPMG LLP.
It accuses KPMG of helping cover up “catastrophic” problems at New Century — including accounting and financial errors — that led to its collapse.
Its conduct flew in the face of U.S. laws put in place after “the Enron-era of financial reporting and accounting, when the public asked ‘Where were the auditors?’” the lawsuit says.
“As New Century’s auditor, KPMG failed its public watchdog duty,” it states.
KPMG spokesman Dan Ginsburg said he had not seen the suit and had no immediate comment. The company has previously denied any wrongdoing in connection with its relationship at New Century.
The suit demands at least $1 billion in damages.
I would think KPMG would fight this tooth-and-nail. The accounting firm contracts have contained such huge disclaimers since the Enron/ A-A debacle, and the firms could avoid a potentially catastrophic downside if these provisions stick. It will be interesting to see how this pans out.
Do you think they contract include disclaimers against fraud and malfeasance?
I think we’ll see a new level of butt tick-ocity in audits going forward.
Addie Polk, the 90-year-old woman who shot herself in the chest last October as she was about to be evicted from her foreclosed home on Lacroix Avenue in Akron, has died.
Polk, who had lived in the home for nearly 40 years, became the national face for victims of predatory lenders. In response to public outcry, the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) announced it would dismiss its foreclosure action against Polk, forgive her mortgage and allow her to return to her home, where she had lived since 1970.
That never happened.
Hey America,
I’m not shocked you are busy killing one-another with handguns, but who could have suspected there would be so many familicides?
In just the past week, as many people were murdered in such a fashion, as those murdered @ Columbine. Nobody really seems to care this time around. Business as usual.
It’s a very Joseph Goebbelish development, a Mayday celebration of sorts…
Let me guess…you just came back from a walk in the Sequoias, remembered it was April Fools and decided to cheer America up by submitting your latest thoughts of encouragement on how to build a better world, …more gold, less people, and within 3 months there well be no drinking water left in California.
Welcome back Mr. Kotter, now regarding those “Marinfindels”…they like the idea of Kaiser Permanente picking up the $2.3 million tag for OctoMom’s x8 babies, they’re just stuck on negotiating the local babysitter $13.25 per hour, per child, wage remuneration…
Sadly in the USA, there will be an event not unlike Rwanda, albeit with hand cannons, in lieu of machetes.
I’ll be watching from afar as you descend into the heart of darkness…
Nah…
Your not him.
Yeah it’s him - still harping on the handgun thing, and ignoring the big picture, e.g. The Economy, or stats like how there are less than half the murders in the U.S. than there are car deaths, and things like the Kiwi’s own versions of Columbine, e.g. the Aramoana Massacre, etc., or the fact that he’s in a country that has more liberal gun laws than the U.S. (yet a much lower murder rate - hmm how can that be?), etc. etc. And still taking potshots at the U.S. while simultaneously running away from the problems.
Recipe for disaster:
Add anger to a well armed populace, let it simmer for a few months, throw in bankruptcy for the hoi polloi, and giveouts to the financiers.
Serves 300 million.
“or stats like how there are less than half the murders in the U.S. than there are car deaths”
Using past statistics to predict future handgun murders, is the same kind of logic that banks were using to predict future foreclosures based on past foreclosures back in 2005-7. Right now everyone is fed and able to live their life mostly normal. Wait till disruptive shortages start to occur.
“I’ll be watching from afar…”
Good, I’ll be walking in the Sequoias this late spring… pissing on your scent.
Dude, you tickle me funny bone daily!
Today, it’s wine up the nose which I assure you is decidely NOT funny.
Its great to see you back alad! I hope you plan to stick around for awhile. I miss you and combo’s daily smack downs. LOL!
Laddie—hope it is actually you, but having trouble believing it, considering the date.
If it is you, hope you are well; you’ve been missed.
How about a delightful pun before your departure back into the ether from whence you came?
Citation needed.
I don’t think jailing Madoff is nearly enough. We need to set an example. Therefore I would support sending him and his entire family to Gitmo (it’s not torture, remember?) and give them the same treatment we gave Al Qaeda detainees. Nothing more. Nothing less.
But I would televise it. Every night, prime time.
This country is loaded with assholes that do not think twice about robbing us blind. Let’s give these assholes a wake-up call.
Just as long as we start with the crooks in DC, like Dodd and Frank!
The old slobbering sister, Fwank may well enjoy being put on the rack, or spanked. LOL!
As for Dodd I think a little ankle grabbing would do him a world of good.
“As for Dodd I think a little ankle grabbing would do him a world of good.”
Dodd will have to get in line behind…… Mark Foley, Larry Craig, Ted Haggard, David Dreier, Ken Mehlman, Mark Sanford, etc…. Just look for the pink elephants lined up at the log cabin on Hypocrite Highway.
Look at that, no complaints. Looks like maybe conservatives are willing to throw the no good bums out. Are the “progressives” willing to do the same?
I’ll throw in Dodd and Frank if you kick down Chimp and Darth Vader.
The shrub and company are no longer in office. Believe me, if the inner party can find something on which to indict, they will.
I’ll throw in for free my local idiots, Lois Capps, Barbara Boxer, and Feinstein. I won’t even mention the BoTox queen, Pillosi. Oh, sorry, I just did. hehehehehehe
Only four years ago…
http://thehousingbubble.blogspot.com/2005/04/california-borrowing-and-lending-is.html#comments
Wow. I had never gone back to look at the archives. It appears that the very first posting was Dec. 5, 2004 - right Ben?
From the linked article - here’s the money quote:
“‘If housing prices go down or even are flat, heaven help us,’ said mortgage analyst Ralph DeFranco.”
Yep, you got that right.
If you don’t like what the numbers tell you, by all means change the calculation.
Financial Times
US banks stand to benefit from rules change
By Francesco Guerrera and Joanna Chung in New York, and Jennifer Hughes in London
Published: April 1 2009 19:20 | Last updated: April 1 2009 19:20
Large US banks like Citigroup, Bank of America and Wells Fargo stand to receive a surprise first-quarter earnings boost from Thursday’s expected loosening of controversial accounting rules by the Financial Accounting Standards Board.
Wall Street executives and auditors say the accounting watchdog’s likely approval of changes to “mark-to-market” rules could lead to increases of up to 20 per cent in quarterly profits of large commercial banks.
I checked, another non-April fools day post.
Just heard a radio report out of D.Central planing, that a states legislative body can not usurp a state Governor should he decide not to take BARF money. Damn good news for our Governor, up yours Jim Clyburn the most ignorant man in D.C.
Ammo flying off store shelves…
Fears of crackdown prompt sales boost
By Schuyler Kropf (Contact)
The Post and Courier
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Gun stores around Charleston are finding it difficult to keep ammunition in stock amid fears that the Obama administration will impose a new wave of bans and crackdowns on weapons and bullets.
The concerns have been around since November, but retailers report a recent spike in demand, especially for shells.
This 9mm ammunition, and all other kinds as well, is selling fast at the ATP Gun Shop in Summerville.
Alan Hawes
The Post and Courier
This 9mm ammunition, and all other kinds as well, is selling fast at the ATP Gun Shop in Summerville.
Some enthusiasts are driving hours, even from out of state, to load up on their personal supply once they hear stocks are available, retailers said.
“My shelves have never been so scarce of bullets,” Arlyn Pendergast, owner of the ATP Gun Shop in Summerville, said Tuesday. “I’ve had people come up from Florida and buy 15,000 to 20,000 rounds.”
Requests are so high for certain types of ammo that Carolina Rod & Gun on Savannah Highway imposed a one-box-per-customer limit on some of the more popular caliber sizes: .45, .380, and .38, including practice rounds.
“They are really just driving up the sales,” store manager Scott Hornsby said of the anti-firearm signals coming from the administration.
The fear that gun restrictions might escalate with a Democrat in the White House began registering even before the November election. They rekindled this winter when Attorney General Eric Holder suggested that the administration was considering reimposing a ban on the domestic sale of military-type guns.
President Bill Clinton imposed such a ban in 1994, which by law blocked the sales of various guns fitted with magazines that could hold large numbers of cartridges. The ban was allowed to expire under President George W. Bush.
Though nothing is concrete on what might happen, or how much the down economy will affect the industry, gun stores across the nation say they haven’t been able to keep up with demand across the board, with large orders coming in for ammo and weaponry.
Some military-style ammo already was hard to get because of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, retailers reported. It’s even rarer now.
Bullets aren’t the only scarce gun products. Cartridge reloading components, used by those who like to make their own loads, are rare, as well. That’s especially true for primers, the small explosive caps that ignite the powder in a bullet cartridge.
The scarcity isn’t isolated to any specific region of the country — government statistics reflect the national jump in gun-related economic purchases.
One yardstick has been the FBI’s background-check figures showing that the bureau made more than 4.2 million checks from November to January, a 31 percent increase over 3.2 million done the year prior, according to published reports.
Is this really all about a crackdown on gun rights, or do a lot of people think the country is headed for a very rough time? I know I bought ammo a while back for my 357, but that was for self defense. I think a lot of people are waking up to the reality we have long known about. A shit storm is coming. But then I have canned goods too, and I do remember a lot of people on this blog telling me this was ridiculous!
Got SPAM?
I wonder what it’s like killing your first fellow human being?
I hunt and I think that’s what a lot of hunting “accidents” are all about…
I remember the first time I killed a squirrel. I was about 10. I felt really guilty. But then I ate him and he was pretty good. So the guilt faded and I killed another and felt a little less guilty about it.
Eventually it was easy. You just have to keep practicing.
Interesting observation: I visited my local gun store last week. It was about 2:00pm on a Monday afternoon. Guns were much more expensive than I had remembered, from just a year or two before.
I was in the store about 30min, chatting up the employees. While I was there I saw two purchases, different buyers, but each dropped $800+ on a handgun. This is in a small store (Ruffs) in Flagstaff, AZ.
Good times…
Bottoms, bottoms, everywhere . . . (the word is used 16 times in the article).
Real Estate Pros See Bottom
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29995211
Pros. Oy.
Happy April Fools Day, everyone! I hope yer all being prankish and enjoying yourself, but without being killed by them who gots no sense of humor.
I just now sat down, because I nattered on here wayyyyy to much yesterday and today was overdosed, and had to get some work done. But mostly I had to play some pranks. Many of the better pranks involve elaborate planning, as we all doubtless know.
And then, of course, I had to avoid being killed.
A busy day.
Hahahaahah!
I played some pranks (”they fell for it”), planted some herbs for my kitchen window-sill garden, and made some cumin-laced tomato soup.
Now, I am drinking some wine.
I’m declaring the day a success even though the day isn’t technically over yet.
Herbs, pranks, tomato soup…I can see you know how to live. Therefore I also declare your day to be a complete and entire success.
*toasts Fasty’s successful day with cheap beer. *
(I needed some silver cans for Easter cards, you see, and they happened to hold cheap beer )
I’m relatively new and somewhat shaky at the whole kitchen-sill herb thing but no guts, no glory, right?
You gotta try something new. That might be the wine talking.
Ooooh, and nothing like fresh herbs snipped free three seconds before you toss them into the food.
What did you plant, anyway?
I have place for roughly eight pots on the sill but there’s space on the kitchen floor where there’s plenty of light.
Curently: rosemary, tarragon, sage, thyme, parsley, mint.
I’m torn for the remaining spots: cilantro, basil, thai basil, chives, bay leaves, dill.
I need a little help and gentle encouragement here (yes! I am totally aware of the irony.)
What irony? You mean ’cause you’s a foodie?
Anyway, you certainly picked good ones for your best space on the sill, in my opinion. Cilantro grows so fast, that might be good, but then there’s basil. Basil!
Oh, hmmm. Yes, it’s quite difficult.
Say, did you know bay trees/shrubs are surprisingly forgiving? I thought they were delicate, but no. I just found this out recently when I was looking for a place to squeeze in some bluebells I rescued and I raked off some leaves and there was a little bay tree I had forgotten about, upside down with its roots in the air, somehow survived and with leaves on it. It had a very accusing air about it and looked at me reproachfully*. I was consumed with guilt and cast aside the rake and flung myself to my knees apologetically.
* I wonder how it managed that? It doesn’t even have any eyes!
We used to grow chives in our flower bed back when we owned a house. Also had rosemary and thyme.
The only time we used the chives was for potatos so I would pick the things I thought I would use most.
Also, one good thing about the chives is they would grow pretty thick, so if you want to use production as a factor to decide you should get a fair size crop even in a small pot. Oh and they would make pretty purple flowers.
Rosemary is a weed - seriously, even I, the consumate city-droid, know this. It will grow anywhere.
To Oly, I think I’m just gonna enjoy the process and learn and if a few of them die, I will be unhappy but I don’t know of any better way to learn how to grow these things (I’ve read all the “data” but that means f***-all as I’m sure you are perfectly aware of!)
Also, one good thing about the chives is they would grow pretty thick, so if you want to use production as a factor to decide you should get a fair size crop even in a small pot. Oh and they would make pretty purple flowers.
Persuasions that will make us allllll plant chives.
Also, bees like chives. I love bees.
The only thing I have to say about chives is that whenever I use them I underestimate how much I need. Years of chiving has failed me to the point that I first estimate, then quadruple and then I still have underestimated.
These herbs are diabolic. You just can’t win.
Rosemary is a weed - seriously, even I, the consumate city-droid, know this. It will grow anywhere.
This is sooooo true. You know where some of my rosemary came from? From Las Vegas, that’s where! You HBBers ought to like that! Even if it was about 12 years before you all met up in February and had fun and met Ben.
Here’s the story: I was standing in the middle of the Las Vegas Strip, in a median, poised to dodge traffic, and man, I was so drunk and/or substance addled that I was freakin’ blinking in and out of existence, with blurry edges. Serious, I was like a girl-shaped quark, is how blinky in and outty of perceptible space/time I was.
But THEN I saw the median all filled with tough and thirsty rosemary that looked like it needed some attention, and so I ceased my phase-shifting long enough to reach over and daintily pull off some cuttings, which I tucked into my bra for safekeeping, and then subsequently brought back home to Utarr—that’s where I lived then—and root them*.
And here they are. In the deep dark forest, in the rain.
We all walk a long and strange trip, huh?
*I’m like Johnny Appleseed! Except I take drugs and can phase-shift.
Also I don’t wear a pot on my head. (Unlike Johnny Appleseed. You’ve all seen the artist’s renditions, and he often has a pot on his head.)
What’s with that? That looks uncomfortable.
Years of chiving has failed me to the point that I first estimate, then quadruple and then I still have underestimated.
First of all, I love your new word. It’s like ‘chivvying’, only more delicious and alliumy-flavored.
Secondly, if you grow a bit pot on your sill, why! You’ll be spared your deficit! You can just reach over and grab some more!
Ooooh, I can’t wait to hear the tales of satisfaction!
bees like chives. I love bees.
I took the video camera out this weekend while my wife worked the bees. When I finally have time and figure out how to edit, I’ll post it on youtube or something so you can see my wife doing the bees.
I got a good shot of one of the queens. She was like, all regal and stuff.
So if you had gotten “lucky” that night, some dude would have discovered rosemary in your bra.
Thats funny to me.
And kind of interesting. Maybe I’ll stuff some rosemary in my wife’s bra, early in the day so I forget about it, then that night when I get lucky I’ll be pleased to find I get a bonus of rosemary.
Plus she’ll probably smell like rosemary.
No, I’m down with the concept of the deficit (”snap!!!”) but I’m still mystified why I can totally nail all other herbs and spices by hand without even bothering to measure and fail with chives.
Must be the devil’s work, no?
Must be the devil’s work, no?
Yes, sure. Satan works in mysterious ways to confound us. I learned that in Sunday-school.
Okay, which prankster were you, aladinsane or NYCityboy?
All this talk about herbs. I feel a song coming on:
Are you going to Scarborough Fair
Parsley, sage, rosemary and thyme
Remember me to one who lives there
She once was a true love of mine
Tell her to make me a cambric shirt
(On the side of a hill in the deep forest green)
Parsley, sage, rosemary and thyme
(Tracing of sparrow on snowcrested brown)
Without no seams nor needle work
(Blankets and bedclothes the child of the mountain)
Then she’ll be a true love of mine
(Sleeps unaware of the clarion call)
Tell her to find me an acre of land
(On the side of a hill a sprinkling of leaves)
Parsley, sage, rosemary and thyme
(Washes the grave with silvery tears)
Between the salt water and the sea strands
(A soldier cleans and polishes a gun)
Then she’ll be a true love of mine
Tell her to reap it with a sickle of leather
(War bellows blazing in scarlet battalions)
Parsley, sage, rosemary and thyme
(Generals order their soldiers to kill)
And gather it all in a bunch of heather
(And to fight for a cause they’ve long ago forgotten)
Then she’ll be a true love of mine
Are you going to Scarborough Fair
Parsley, sage, rosemary and thyme
Remember me to one who lives there
She once was a true love of mine
-Simon and Garfunkel
It’s rare you find the counter-song lyrics. Most people only know the primaries.
No pranks. Allergies are killing me today.
Started out chipper enough, but then downhill from there.
Where do you live, ecofeco? You once mentioned Tumwater, which made me think you’s a local PNWester, which would be nice, but then you later mentioned Cajuns, or alligators or something which made me think you live somewhere else.
Oh, but my point was, you should try glugging aloe vera juice and see if that helps your allergies. I normally dismiss that naturistic holistic herb treatment stuff, mostly, but someone I know noisily swears that aloe vera juice— a half a cupful drinked every morning and night for a month or so— ended they’s allergies.
Okay Ben,
Are you aladinsane and NYCityBoy?
DUH!!!
No, it can’t be, ’cause NYCityboy has a fairly well developed potty-mouth, whereas our fearless leader actually says ‘Holy Cow’ when he becomes extra emphatic. Why, I expect him to shout ‘H. E. Double-toothpicks!’ one of these days.
Hahahahah! That’s pretty cute.
* sigh. Wipes tears of fond merriment from eyes *
Serious—Mrs. Jones raised a good boy.
Oh, hey, that reminds me! WHICH poster here is Mrs. Jones!?
We never did follow up on that, huh huh huh?
Aah, but you notice today that NYCityBoy didn’t use his potty mouth.
NYCityboy hasn’t used his potty-mouth for a LONG time! What, did he get banned, or sumpin’?
Be nice putty tat. Purr, purr.
I asked because no one else did. I believe in asking the obvious question and posting the obvious statement.
I’m down with obviousness.
And sorry about that. In fact, you might enjoy me baring my soul about my cluelessness in growing herbs above.
That’s okay. I read your foray into growing herbs. Hey I think it’s great you’re going for it.
Also further up I asked if maybe you were the prankster aladinsane knowing how much you liked his gold and end of the world posts
Naah, I’d pick a better prank.
Have you heard from clue? Haven’t seen him post for quite some time.
No, nor from hozzie. And I don’t have their emails either.
In fact, you might enjoy me baring my soul about my cluelessness in growing herbs above.
What? A bare-naked Fasty soul? Can this be?
I’m always pretty honest about things I don’t know.
I’m a fast learner though.
I’m always pretty honest about things I don’t know.
That’s why me and SanFrangal like to see you nekkid.
I’m a fast learner though.
That’s why me and SanFrangal like to see you nekkid.
Haw!
ROTFLMAO.
(and some blushing too.)
Oh, but let’s be gentle with him, SanFranGal, and not ruffle up his herbs tooooooo much.
(and some blushing too.)
Okay, now, SanFranGal, let’s confer together. Do you think he even can?
Blush, I mean.
At first I thought this might be an April Fools joke, but unfortunately, it looks like they’re serious.
Financial Rescue Nears GDP as Pledges Top $12.8 Trillion (Update1)
March 31 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have spent, lent or committed $12.8 trillion, an amount that approaches the value of everything produced in the country last year, to stem the longest recession since the 1930s.
New pledges from the Fed, the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. include $1 trillion for the Public-Private Investment Program, designed to help investors buy distressed loans and other assets from U.S. banks. The money works out to $42,105 for every man, woman and child in the U.S. and 14 times the $899.8 billion of currency in circulation. The nation’s gross domestic product was $14.2 trillion in 2008.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=armOzfkwtCA4&refer=worldwide
http://www.houstonpress.com/2009-04-02/news/mortgage-papers-and-foreclosure/
Mortgage Papers and Foreclosure
It’s easy for a homeowner’s payments to fall through the cracks.
My Summary: (Very well written 5 page article)
Homeowner believes a payment was lost each time her mortgage was sold (IndyMac (-2 payments) -> CountryWide (-2 payments) -> IndyMac -> America’s Servicing Company (acting for Wells Fargo)
So (if she is correct), the banks insist she was 4 months delinquent even though IndyMac stole two payments from Countrywide and Countrywide then stole them both back
The house had two fires, totalling it.
…
Characterizing the spirit of the lawsuits is the easy part: Wells Fargo believes Perez lost her house because she’s a deadbeat. Perez believes she lost her house because she was beholden to idiots. Digging for the truth is messy and migraine-inducing, and in that way, it’s a lot like the structure of mortgage-backed securities itself — that bizarre investment practice that collapsed in on itself, dragging much of the economy down with it.
…
The transfer of servicing rights is supposed to be seamless, with the borrower receiving ample notice. But the amount of bureaucracy, with different departments of different divisions operating in different parts of the country, is fertile ground for confusion — on behalf of both borrower and servicer.
To wit: Perez forwarded the first insurance check she got to ASC. On September 15, she received a letter from ASC stating that the check had been deposited. However, the check was never actually deposited. In early October, Liberty Mutual had to cancel the still-outstanding check per fraud-prevention policies and cut a new one. This time, ASC actually deposited the check and, in November, issued the first of what were to be three disbursements for Perez’s home repair.
…
((ROFL: By my count this was a $28000 check they are talking about, for the first fire damage. It gets worse: ))
Perez claims that, after Liberty Mutual explained that insurance checks could only be issued to the borrower and the servicer, she had a difficult time finding out who her servicer was. She says that when she called IndyMac to provide information about the fire, customer service reps told her IndyMac was no longer her servicer, and that she was now with ASC.
….
(( and the mortgage servicers golden rule: ))
Ultimately, it’s just another example of what appears to be a rule in the world of securitized mortgages: The servicer, responsible for thousands of mortgages nationwide that add up to billions of dollars, is never extremely confused, and therefore never makes a mistake — honest or otherwise. The borrower, responsible for one monthly payment to one entity, is always wrong.
FPSS,
Haven’t see voz = clue post for awhile. Have you heard anything from him?
Portability (renting) pays dividends. One of my sisters got a new job on the east coast. She lived in California all her life (almost 54) and worked on the coastline most of her career. But the California job market is getting ever so worse. She’s been unemployed since mid-October but proactively searching for jobs and traveling coast to coast and from the northern border to the southern border. Her first day at work on the east coast is Monday in the Medical Records field of Health Care. I’m basically concerned for her so I think about her situation constantly. Did not get much sleep last night. She has a cool apartment now on the waterfront. At age 53 going on 54 to take a job all across the USA takes guts for her. She is one of my heroines. On the downside, she spent all of her 403B. But…she cashed out last summer before stocks took a big dive.
She never owned but only rented. Divorced, no kids. Maybe now she will learn about saving $ and work toward 6 months of living expenses so that she can move back to her beloved California in a year or two.
A toast to my sister! A heroine!
A toast to my sister! A heroine!
I shall join you in this toast, this time. Because this’s good news for what sounds like a decent gal, and because she has guts.
Two good things!
*toasts *
I’ll drink to this toast too because I love rational stories, and I’m drinking some nice wine anyway.
A toast to your sister. May she be happy!
Ahhh..?I don’t love rational stories. Rational stories aren’t like real life, and therefore don’t make sense. I like things to make sense, unlike you. You only think you like things to make sense.
But I shall humor you, my dearling! Because it’s a beautiful dark night here, with steady rain, and drippy trees, and you have wine, and I have cheap beer in silver cans, and SanFrangal has something somewhere, surely? SanFran? Where are yuh?
I’ll say it, too!
‘A toast to your sister. May she be happy!’
My first toast was: ‘Bless Bill’s sister! May she not get caught!’
Oh! But I was going to add that I am right now listening to ‘The Black Keys’. I LOVE them! I heard them for the first time ever in the Best Dive Bar In The World, the other day.
I love Joyce and Beckett and Finnegans Wake.
I wasted a year on government cheese to read the latter, and another of directing Beckett with three performances at the end (long story - don’t ask!)
You’re accusing me of things making sense? You have a steep uphill battle!
I love Joyce and Beckett and Finnegans Wake.
Okay then, this is clear evidence that you DON’T love rational stories, in direct contravention to what you just boldly stated a bit ago. And I’m going to remember this, and don’t think I won’t. Because I will.
Wait? Hurrr…? What? You directed Beckett?! With 3 thingies at the end? What, did you make stuff up?
I bet you did! Scofflaw!
*slams down silver can in outrage*
Hmmm. It’s 10:01 PNW time here and this rain is getting all super bugging me. It seems all secretive and drippy.
I mean, drippier than most times, and more sneaky.
Well, I don’t care for it, and my head hurts. I fell out of a tree yesterday. I just didn’t tell you about this, because I felt inadequate.
*makes bold gesture indicating that I don’t like this freakish rain and that my soggy head hurts *
Tell you what, Fasty, tomorrow I shall send you my story about Mummies who drive to Hell in a school-bus, and then you can explain how you traduced Mr. Beckett.*
*Because you did. Yes, you did!
Olygal, sorry went away for awhile. Hope you feel better. Take care gal. FPSS and Olygal good night
Thanks OlympiaGal, FPSS, and so on! Yes she’s decent, and I’m quick to admit many more times “desent-er” than me!