April 3, 2009

The 10-Year Big Mistake

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “The California Association of Realtors has launched a program to provide a flat $1,500 monthly payment for as long as six months to cover mortgage payments for first-time homebuyers who get laid off from a job. The flip side of home-buying incentives is that they can result in some people buying homes when they don’t have a strong financial grounding, according to Bruce Norris, founder of The Norris Group, a Riverside-based real estate investment firm. Incentives, such as the association program and tax breaks, could end up weakening the financial caution a person should have when buying a home, he said.”

“‘You end up having people that look for solutions to their problem, other than just (looking to) themselves,’ he said. ‘I think it’s a big problem.’”

“Major builders offering job loss mortgage payment plans include Lennar Corp., Pulte Homes Inc., The Ryland Group Inc. and Toll Brothers Inc. J. Robert Hunter, director of insurance at the Consumer Federation of America, said that homebuyers might be better off passing on the mortgage payment insurance plans — which he generally called ‘a gimmick’ — and ask for a discount.”

“‘If we’re in for a two-year recession and I lose my job, I may not get it back for two years, and six months is still not going to save me,’ Hunter said. ‘I personally would want to find out how much money I could save buying the house without it.’”

“The foreclosure fallout, according to a University of Pacific economist, has taken median housing prices from roughly seven times the median income in Manteca three years ago to around 2.5 times today making homes much more affordable. The state housing plan mandate could end up being an exercise in futility until the foreclosure mess is cleaned up. ‘We’re in a declining market and we have to stabilize it,’ said Carol Ornellis of Visionary Home Builders.”

“She noted that the 10-year stretch of time where people viewed houses as a way to make quick money and turned everything upside down ‘was a big mistake.’ ‘We have to do a Wal-Mart and roll back prices.’”

“Phillip Muro was unexpectedly laid off this past Friday the 13th, along with most of the rest of his crew members from a Douglas-based company. Although he is considered to be ‘job-attached,’ meaning his boss wants him back when things pick up, he’s not sure he can wait. ‘My house payment doesn’t exactly come with hopes and dreams,’ he said. ‘It’s cash.’”

“There were more than 9,000 foreclosure filings in Pima County in 2008 and more than 4,500 in 2007, according to Realty Trac. Midvale Park is being targeted by Pima County officials in an effort to combat the negative effects of foreclosures in the neighborhood. The program involves buying foreclosed homes and turning them into low-cost rentals.”

“Abel Romero is moving his family into a home in Midvale Park this week. He said he was given 40 days to move out of his South Side home after it was foreclosed on earlier this year. He’s paying about $700 a month for a three-bedroom house. ‘I got laid off from my job and our payments were just too high,” Romero said. ‘You try to make your payments but when you’re already behind, all you’re paying on is late charges It was just a vicious cycle and we had no choice, pretty much. Hopefully down the line, once we get back on our feet, we’ll be able to buy another home.’”

“Jennifer Vaughn’s development in Homestead is one of many where prices seem to fall by the day. A 26-year-old first-time buyer, Ms. Vaughn closed on a three-bedroom, three-bathroom townhouse in November, paying $87,000 for the foreclosed property with an F.H.A. loan. The price was far below the $261,000 the house sold for in October 2006, but a few weeks ago, a townhouse with the same layout and fancier features sold for $75,000. And a third is about to close for $65,000, said Andy Lopez, a real estate agent who found Ms. Vaughn her townhouse.”

“So already, she appears to owe more than her home is worth. Not that she minds. ‘I’m going to stay for five or six years at least,’ Ms. Vaughn said, ‘and I’m sure prices will go up somewhat by then.’”

“She also has one of the recession’s safest job: she works for a collection agency.”

“The addition of a tax credit appears to be sweetening the pot for some of those buyers, while banks eager to unload foreclosed properties have also begun to offer incentives, like money for closing costs. ‘A lot of the banks have adjusted their thinking,’ said John Ahlbrand, a real estate agent in Las Vegas. ‘If they show they have the ability to repay — imagine that — then the bank helps.’”

“The number of pre-foreclosure notices filed in Deschutes County continues to rise. As the recession continues to take its toll, there are fewer families and individuals able to make their mortgage payments, said Kenny LaPoint, a housing specialist. And until the job market improves — Deschutes County’s unemployment rate hit 12.6 percent in February — LaPoint believes the federally announced loan modification and loan refinancing programs aimed at lowering mortgage payments aren’t going to amount to much.”

“‘Until our job market changes, it doesn’t matter what stimulus plans come out because if there’s no (household income), it doesn’t matter what your mortgage payment is,’ LaPoint said.”

“Cincinnati Realtor Kevin Hildebrand says now is the time to buy. Hildebrand is selling his own home and looking for a bigger house to buy right now. ‘I honestly think we’re at the bottom. And if we’re not at the bottom, we’re within a couple percent, so do you want to wait until we’re eight percent up before you buy?’”

“Hildebrand says, ‘we really need the first time buyer to take advantage of the low rate and the tax credit and start buying the house for $150,000. Then the $150,000 person can buy the $250,000 house, and the $250,000 home owner can buy one for $450,000. The housing market got us into this, and I think the housing market will get us out of this.’”

“Joseph Espinal says ever since he moved into his house in Banyan Isles two years ago with his wife and two small children, they’ve been getting sinus headaches and having trouble breathing. Also, the stainless steel shower head is turning black. He attributes the problems to Chinese drywall, and he’s had enough.”

“‘I am moving out,’ he said. ‘You are not going to find me there by the end of the month. But I don’t know where I am going to go. I don’t have the resources for two mortgages. But I cannot put a price tag on my family’s health.’”

“While sales have slowed, the local housing market is still said to be growing — albeit at a lower rate than one year ago. ‘In my opinion, Seguin and Guadalupe County seem to be doing better than some other areas,’ said Bill Seiler, a Realtor who works for Mickey Ferrell Realtors. ‘I know we’ve had some layoffs, and housing market-wise, it has slowed down, but it didn’t slow down like we’re hearing elsewhere around the nation.’”

“Across the country, Seiler said, is where you hear the bad stuff. ‘I talked to my dad in Phoenix, and it’s horrible,’ Seiler said of the market. ‘I talk to friends in Colorado, and it’s horrible.’”

“A friend in Colorado, Seiler said, wanted to sell his home and move to Phoenix to be closer to his children. He’ll probably end up keeping the house and renting, Seiler said, rather than taking a hit by selling in this market. ‘He doesn’t owe anything on his house, but he certainly can’t get the money he could have a couple months ago,’ Seiler said.”

“Abilene is one of the top 10 best markets in the nation for expected performance in home prices, according to an organization that forecasts the real estate market for investors. Jerry Mash, president of the Abilene Board of Realtors, pointed out that a home in 1990 in Abilene had an average value of $62,000, and now that average value is $126,000, which shows a steady increase. He said that the real problem in the housing market is on both coasts. The cities the Local Market Monitor named as Bottom 10 in expected real estate prices, with predicted declines of 25 percent or more, are in Las Vegas, Florida and California.”

“‘This is where housing prices went up fast. Then when the economy went down, demands for homes decreased,’ Mash stated.”

“The Local Market Monitor’s Carolyn Beggs says buying a house in a city such as Abilene is a good investment because owners will not see the decrease in value that other cities might. ‘You can buy a home and feel comfortable that it’s a solid investment,’ she said.”

“Although Richard Petree, Taylor County’s chief appraiser, says he believes Abilene is doing better as far as the housing market goes, he thinks the survey is a bit ‘too positive.’ ‘There are still lots of homes for sale, and that leads to a decrease in values,’ he said.”

“In Northeast Wisconsin 45 new housing permits were issued in January, down from 103 permits in January of 2008, a 56 percent decrease. The president of the Realtors Association of Northeast Wisconsin says things are turning around, and the last three months have consistently improved for new and existing home sales even though compared to last year sales are still down.”

“‘There’s no doubt about it, the market’s not where anyone in my profession would like it to be, but I can tell you it’s much better than where it was and we are taking baby steps, small strides at a time. It’s not like we can see the end of the tunnel, but we feel the end is coming,’ said K.C. Maurer, president of the Realtors Association of Northeast Wisconsin.”

“The chairmen of two key committees are at odds over the pace with which Congress should overhaul the nation’s financial regulatory system. Former AIG chief Maurice Greenberg, who left AIG in 2005, blasted the managers who came after him for the company’s near-failure, saying, ‘AIG’s business model did not fail. Its management did.’”

“But he also found himself defending his role at the company. ‘When you say management failed,’ demanded Rep. Elijah Cummings, ‘do you include yourself?’ ‘No. How could I?’ replied the 83-year-old executive. ‘When I left the company, it was a healthy company.’”

“People are trying to understand the similarities and/or differences between the Detroit car makers and the New York bankers in terms of; the amount of public money given their companies, the demands made in exchange for said money and the treatment of the executives of the respective companies.”

“The banks did know that many of the loans they were making were going to be a default and foreclosure problem. They knew this because they were making loans to people with incomes inadequate to repay them back; because they were making loans without even verifying income, because they were making loans that would jump up to three or four time the payment amount. In short the banks were making loans disregarding all the basic principles of good banking practices, so they knew the default rate would be sky high. That is why they sliced, diced and bundled the loans for resale to unsuspecting buyers. If they were good loans they could have sold without the complex derivative disguises they created.”

“The ‘anyone with a pulse’ could qualify for a loan process created the demand that resulted in the housing bubble. Since the demand was fraudulently high being based on people who could not afford to stay in the homes, the bursting of the bubble was inevitable. When the bubble burst, credit froze up because the banks were stuck with garbage loans of their own making all over their balance sheets. This lead the entire economy into a massive meltdown.”

“Some people say the car makers failed for years to provide the small inexpensive car that Americans wanted. The banks are guilty of a whole host of inappropriate business activities, none of which could be called honest mistakes. How come Washington treats the honest (albeit dim witted) mistakes of Detroit like they were crimes worthy of punishment and treats the dishonest mistakes of New York as if they were merely errors of judgment? Maybe because there is a revolving door between high government jobs in the economic field and high income jobs on Wall Street.”

“If the backbone and almost last vestige of what was once the great American manufacturing industry is going to be highly controlled by the government because of their honest mistakes, perhaps the banking industry, which actually didn’t create anything other than unconscionable bad debt due to dishonesty, should be subject at least similar control!”




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120 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2009-04-03 10:09:07

Another big week! My thanks to those who support this blog. Please check back this weekend.

 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-04-03 10:17:55

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/03/greathomesanddestinations/03Fractionals.html?hpw

House DIvided.

It seems that people want to sell fractions of their vacation homes in order to justify keeping them.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2009-04-03 11:29:31

Some folks just can’t stop digging.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-04-03 12:03:23

Something I’m noticing here in Tucson: People (either unemployed or on a *very* cheap vacation) parking on the streets and living out of pickup trucks (with camper shells) or RVs for weeks on end.

Got one of those three blocks from the Arizona Slim Ranch. The guy looks very down on his luck, and he comes and goes at odd intervals. I can’t help thinking that his old pickup is now his home.

Comment by Blue Skye
2009-04-03 13:53:13

It’s the new Hooverville. Dispersed.

Comment by X-GSfixer
2009-04-03 14:53:32

F150-ville.

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Comment by GrizzlyBear
2009-04-03 15:04:41

Walmart parking lot around here has been bustling with RV’s, many of the ‘last legs’ variety. These are definitely not people on vacation. 20,000,000+ vacant homes in this country, and we’ve got people with nowhere to sleep. I don’t see any policies addressing the skyrocketing new trend of joblessness/homelessness.

 
 
 
Comment by Julius
2009-04-03 10:20:20

“If the backbone and almost last vestige of what was once the great American manufacturing industry is going to be highly controlled by the government because of their honest mistakes, perhaps the banking industry, which actually didn’t create anything other than unconscionable bad debt due to dishonesty, should be subject at least similar control!”

The American auto industry’s decline was not due to “honest mistakes”. It resulted from consistently poor management from the late ’60s onward, the UAW’s intransigence, and a complete failure of the Big Three to see the big picture and meet the Japanese head-on. It’s telling that the Big Three have had nearly 40 years to get a good small car built, and they STILL haven’t really hit the mark. Nope, just more SUVs and “retro” pony cars that long for Detroit’s (long-gone) good old days. GM/Chrysler have been heading towards bankruptcy for decades, and this recession was just the straw that broke the camel’s back.

Comment by taxmeupthebooty
2009-04-03 10:52:13

the fake volvo (2008-9-10 ) taurus is ok

no toy car for me tx

 
Comment by skroodle
2009-04-03 11:02:49

Sounds like honest mistakes to me. The flip side would be to attribute the decline to malicious intent. Stupidity seems much more likely to me.

Comment by Julius
2009-04-03 11:12:02

But critics have been pointing out these “honest mistakes” for years. Chrysler, for instance, was bailed out in the 70s and it did not seem to learn very much from that incident. The Big Three have also been infamous for bringing out models with glaring (and often dangerous) design flaws and then refusing to stand behind their products when owners try to get the problem fixed. Publications such as Consumer Reports have been pointing out this poor reliability for decades, and American consumers have been leaving the brands in droves for the Japanese and European makes.

When the Big Three say “we made honest mistakes”, don’t take it any more seriously than when Greenspan says “nobody could have seen this bubble coming”.

Comment by Skip
2009-04-03 11:42:34

When we reward companies that make stupid mistakes, stupid mistakes becomes a part of their business plan and become “our way of doing business” and case studies at Harvard.

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Comment by X-GSfixer
2009-04-03 15:12:32

Evidently, no one on this blog actually works on cars.

Everybody “cuts corners” but the Japanese and Korean cars are in the places you can’t see.

Example:
Dodge Neon exhaust system……4 into1 exhaust manifold, with decent sized porting, 2 1/4 tubing all the way to the back bumper,

Toyota or Honda……..what appears to be 1 3/4 inch tubing, at best…….yeah, those coffee/fart can exhaust tips the kids put on those cars really helps.

Neons kicked butt in SCCA Showroom Stock classes, until the other guys whined, and the SCCA allowed aftermarket parts to be installed on Showroom Stock class cars.

I see 70’s Big 3 cars/trucks every day around here……..it’s been a long time since I saw a 70’s Toyota, Datsun or Honda.

IMO, you can make the case that the foreign cars are a little better quality, but they are NOT worth the premium you have to pay to buy them, vs. Big 3 products. Especially when you compare the “out the door” price.

Rented a Honda Civic for a two week business trip last year (they ran out of Impalas). I’ve still got cramps from trying to sqeeze into that Spam-Can……..got good gas mileage, but savings were offset by the chiropractor bills.

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Comment by Julius
2009-04-03 16:35:22

“I see 70’s Big 3 cars/trucks every day around here……..it’s been a long time since I saw a 70’s Toyota, Datsun or Honda.”

I actually agree with much of your post. You see, until last year I was the sort of guy who never would have thought of buying a “foreign” car. My parents bought mostly GM and Ford products and I figured I’d follow suit. I personally drive a ‘96 Mercury Grand Marquis and my wife had a ‘96 Olds Cutlass Supreme until last August. For us, the Grand Marquis has been very solid and reliable; the Olds…not so much. Last summer, the Olds blew a head gasket (@ 130k miles) and there was so much else that needed to be addressed at that point that we figured we’d get rid of it. After looking around at new and slightly used Chevys, Nissans, Toyotas, Hondas, and Kias, we ended up buying a CPO 06 Honda Accord for $14k. I always figured the major foreign makes weren’t worth the premium either, but now I feel otherwise. The Accord’s interior is simply built quite a bit better than anything domestic from that time period (and this is coming from a domestic fanboy, no less). On top of that, the 2.4 4-cyl engine is quite a gem. It actually makes more horsepower and torque than the 3.1 V6 from the Olds - all while returning 34-36 MPG on the highway. I’m 6′4 and I fit pretty decently into the driver’s seat; granted, I’m not quite as comfortable as I am in the Grand Marquis, but it’s still OK for long trips. It’s an excellent all-around compromise and I like it as much as I like the Grand Marquis, but in different ways. The Grand Marquis is all about plush cruising and big v-8 torque while the Accord feels leaner, firmer, and more precise. The Accord his wonderfully direct steering and relatively sharp handling, but sometimes there’s nothing like floating down the highway on the big couchlike seats of the Grand Marquis.

As far as cutting corners goes…there’s offenses on both sides. The Grand Marquis had a plastic intake manifold atop its 4.6 V8 that cracked one summer, necessitating a $600 replacement with one made of aluminum. It also likes to rust out brake lines and tends to go through brake pads/rotors quickly because the rotors are tiny with regards to the car’s size and heft. The OEM Honda brake components were also chintzy and wore out awfully quickly, but I haven’t had any more trouble with them since I replaced them with aftermarket parts. The sound isolation in the Honda is definitely inferior to the Mercury, and on some types of surfaces the road noise is almost deafening (although this improved a lot when I switched from the stock Michelins to Yokohama Avid TRZ tires).

All in all, they’re both good cars with their own strengths and weaknesses. But the Honda has certainly opened my eyes a bit.

 
 
Comment by timmy boy
2009-04-03 15:51:46

.
All one has to do is to look at the Pontiac Aztek & see that GM deserves to be killed off.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2002-05_Pontiac_Aztek.jpg

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Comment by oxide
2009-04-03 16:24:51

It was not “honest” mistake, nor malicious intent. The Big 3 were simply penny-wise and pound foolish. They were fixated on short-term profit instead of long-term survival. As a result, they concentrated more and more effort onto their profitable SUV line, effectively putting all their eggs into fewer and fewer baskets. At the end, they only had two baskets: SUV’s and trucks. Both baskets broke when gas prices went up and construction bottomed out. GM was doomed becuase it didn’t prepare for the triple whammy of gas prices, legacy costs, and competition.

 
 
Comment by Steve W
2009-04-03 11:06:33

An honest question–is there anything in the world (business, government, etc) that grows to a ginormous size and still runs well? It’s so much easier to know what’s going on, make good decisions when the size is manageable. When you’ve got thousands of middle management doing their own thing without insight by the guy/gal who’s supposed to be running the thing, the whole system breaks down.

Should we then expect all of these gigantic companies to finally go bust at some point?

As I’ve grown older I’ve become such a proponent of “keeping it simple”, it’s a shame more of life can’t work out that way. Small business, small government seems the way to go. Probably means we’re back to a Stone Age economy, though, so this is all probably meaningless philosophical gumbo on a Friday afternoon.

Comment by iftheshoefits
2009-04-03 12:06:28

“An honest question–is there anything in the world (business, government, etc) that grows to a ginormous size and still runs well? ”

Not if it was created by human beings.

 
Comment by Frank Hague
2009-04-03 13:55:46

I work for a large corporation and I’ve been thinking about a lot lately. If you’ve ever been in a meeting with 30 other people you know how hard it is to accomplish anything in a large oraganization.

Comment by Leighsong
2009-04-03 18:55:17

That’s the beauty of hiring a trained facilitator with a stick-to-the point agenda.

I facilitated large meetings of meat-heads, er…people.

A well defined agenda allows for inputs and a higher ratio of consensus.

Leigh ;)

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-04-03 12:07:54

Something else about the auto industry: When I was a pup studying economics at the University of Michigan, I noticed something very interesting about my classmates. And not just my fellow econ majors.

When it came to choosing a place to work after graduation, the auto industry wasn’t high on anyone’s list. And this is at a school that’s less than an hour’s drive away from Detroit.

Instead, the cool jobs were in that new industry we called “computers.”

Thirty years after graduation, I can tell you that the kids who went on to do something with computers did quite well. Including Housemate Mark, who’s now a multimillionaire. (He hit it big in routers.)

I can’t think of anyone who’s working in the auto industry.

 
Comment by luvin_grits
2009-04-03 12:18:03

It never ceases to amaze me. Ok, lots of truth to car co mgmt and UAW labor and all those poor decisions, so let’s beat up on them.
But government intervention in markets whether it be medicine (Medicare/MediCal & state mandated insurance coverages- graph inflation vs medical care costs), housing (HUD Section 8 subisdy), Treasury (Tax Credit housing), Student loans (graph inflation vs tuition) etc distorts the market.
IIRC, wasn’t a tax incentive, passed by Congress and signed by Bush after 9-11, used to encourage companies to purchase BIG vehicles (generally US made) but nothing to encourage citizens to buy small cars (CAFE standards, which are set by Congress).
This country is supposed to be a republic and have a Constitution that limits the Federal government. As said by the “Pink Panther”, Not any more!

Comment by SaladSD
2009-04-03 18:31:32

When they started giving tax breaks for Hummers and other lardass SUVs, that’s when SUV LUV became a STD. Oh, the excuse was that SUVs were akin to trucks used by farmers & construction workers (they ARE built on truck platforms), therefore should be exempt from pollution & mileage standards that passenger vehicles abide by. Snort. Lots o’ farmers wearing Juicy Couture round these parts.

Comment by Leighsong
2009-04-03 19:46:49

Salad,

So true!

My solution - put a checkbox on IRS form - are you a farmer or contractor? Check yes or no. (oversimplification)-

My dear friend called to tell me she bought a new Hummer a couple of years ago. She’s a sweet gal, and I love her so, BWTH!

I don’t like to hurt any of my friends feelings, so I usually say something like: “You sound so happy”!

Truth be told, if I said, “Are you an idjit?”, I’d live the happy life of a recluse.

Besides, if there were a jail for stupid people, how many guards could we muster?

Leigh :)

P.S. I’d be an inmate.

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Comment by Blano
2009-04-03 12:44:00

“Some people say the car makers failed for years to provide the small inexpensive car that Americans wanted.”

I think this is a crock. I’ve never heard anyone (other than a few enviro/global warming types maybe) say “gee, I sure wish they’d build a smaller inexpensive car for someone like me.” I think most people DON’T want to drive a Matchbox car. We’re just going to be stuck with them eventually. Riding around with your knees in your face isn’t much fun.

Comment by robiscrazy
2009-04-03 13:30:27

hmmmm…..I’ve always owned small Japanese pickups or cars (Nissan, Mazda, Subaru, Mitsubishi). Never were my knees in my face and I’m 6′.

Right now I own the smallest Subaru, an Impreza. Most competent and well engineered car I’ve ever owned. Comfortable even on long trips.

Of course, I’m also not overweight like so many. Maybe if we Americans slim down a little we would fit into an enjoy smaller cars?

Comment by In Colorado
2009-04-03 13:38:57

FWIW, cars that we call “small” are considered “big” in other countries.

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Comment by ET-Chicago
2009-04-03 16:16:58

FWIW, cars that we call “small” are considered “big” in other countries.

Cars that we call “small” are still considered “big” in other countries — it’s astonishing that our auto industry is at a juncture similar to 30 years ago.

 
Comment by speedingpullet
2009-04-03 19:21:05

LOL, speaking of Small is Beautiful, I got p0wned by a Smart Car driver, when I was driving from San Francisco to L.A last week.

I was doing about 85mph, and his car made mine look like it was traveling backwards - s/he must have been doing a Ton at least.

Can’t decide on a Mini Clubman or a Smart Car, once the Sentra goes off to the scrapyard in the sky…

 
Comment by CA renter
2009-04-04 05:18:44

Glad to hear you made it out safely, SP!

 
Comment by Sagesse
2009-04-04 11:12:34

Test drive the Smart. Terrible handling. Your arm muscles get a good workout, trying to get into a parking spot. That was not the idea with that car, I suppose.

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-04-03 15:21:27

Preach it, robiscrazy. I’m all in favor of slimness.

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Comment by SaladSD
2009-04-03 18:38:58

Yeah, I’m so sick of this lame excuse that big Americans need big cars. There’s a lot of small cars out there that fit 6 footers just fine. This isn’t the 70s anymore. The new line of small cars available these days are definitely not cheapo Matchboxes, and some are quite luxurious. Fact of the matter is, many small cars offer a better value. Like McMansions, by inflating the size of vehicles they can command a bigger price.

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Comment by Hrundi V. Bakshi
2009-04-03 13:38:28

I’m hardly an enviro/global warming type, but I specifically bought the smallest vehicle in its class.

 
Comment by Rancher
2009-04-03 14:23:15

When you’re over 6′7″ and 245 lbs, small cars
are not the answer. I drive big cars and big trucks because that’s what I can get into. Anything smaller requires that I bathe in Wesson
Oil before trying it on for size.

Comment by GrizzlyBear
2009-04-03 15:08:21

My 6′8″ cousin drives a Ford Focus. Says it suits him just fine.

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Comment by CrackerJIm
2009-04-03 15:30:15

I luuuv my Ford Expedition. As long as I can afford it, I will be driving a big SUV. So there, flame away all you tree hugging, solar cell loving, nuke hating, celery eating, wealth hating, manmade climate disaster believers!

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Comment by CrackerJIm
2009-04-03 15:38:53

BTW, I just ordered a new Expedition; I want to have a new one before Obama stops production of any non-approved vehicles. This will be my third consecutive Expedition after two Tahoes and one Suburban.

 
Comment by SaladSD
2009-04-03 18:59:49

You’re joking, right? Can’t ever be sure these days, though April Fools was just the other day. You so funny.

 
Comment by REhobbyist
2009-04-03 20:44:41

Cracker - you’re getting a good deal right now on your big SUVs, thanks to the bursting bubble. But in the past you have paid as much for your one car that I did for our four, not to mention taxes, registration fees, and gas. One of the reasons I love small American cars is because I like to keep my wealth, not drive it.

 
 
 
Comment by SDGreg
2009-04-03 20:05:52

“Some people say the car makers failed for years to provide the small inexpensive car that Americans wanted.”

I’m on my second Civic, but my next car will be something smaller. Why do automakers keep upsizing models with each redesign? Do you really need the vehicle the size of a super tanker to haul around one bloated American and their cell phone?

While there is some relatively small number of people that have a legitimate use for larger vehicles, for most it is a preference, not a need.

Comment by CA renter
2009-04-04 05:20:49

Families.

Sorry to all the small car lovers out there, but if you have kids, you want a car that is **safe** enough and large enough to carry your family and their “stuff”.

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Comment by whyoung
2009-04-04 06:13:45

yes, but an SUV is not necessarily the answer… If you’ve got enough kids and pets to outgrow as small station wagon you need to admit it’s mini van time.

A former supervisor bought a Hummer because of the three kids… Saying “what else” can you buy thats large enough…

Hmm…

 
Comment by oliverks
2009-04-04 10:22:39

If you want safe, avoid the domestic SUV’s. They are basically a death trap that give the illusion of safety. They have no head protection when you roll them, and trust me, they are easy to roll. Your best bet is a large German sedan.

Interestingly Volvo’s don’t appear to be much safer than other passenger cars, but this could be a case of the drivers thinking they are safe and being careless.

For Japanese cars, you really need to study crash data. Their is a lot of variance in safety between models and companies.

And remember by far the most important factor in car safety is the driver. The second most important factor are seat belts.

Oliver

 
Comment by EndOfEmpire
2009-04-04 14:58:17

SUVs are not safe. :

People driving or riding in a sport utility vehicle in 2003 were nearly 11 percent more likely to die in an accident than people in cars, the figures show.

The traffic safety agency reported last week that there were 16.42 deaths of S.U.V. occupants in accidents last year for every 100,000 registered S.U.V.’s. The figure for passenger cars was 14.85 deaths for each 100,000 registered; pickups were slightly higher than cars at 15.17 deaths per 100,000, while vans were lowest at 11.2 occupant deaths for every 100,000 registered.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/17/business/safety-gap-grows-wider-between-suv-s-and-cars.html?scp=3&sq=SUV%20death%20rate&st=cse

 
Comment by Reddy Watt
2009-04-05 09:30:15

First, read Jump Start, Japan Comes to the Heartland by David Gelsanliter for loads of info on how Japan bypassed the unions and set up shop in the midwest.
http://isbn.nu/9784770017130

Second, you like gore, then read on. After the gore I just rant about my hatred of GM and Ford, I’m sure you’ve heard it before.

You wanna know what cars are safe? Visit the salvage yard and have a look at the aftermath up close. Some cars stay pretty intact no matter how you try to crush them, others not so much. The real fun is trying to determine what happened to the occupants.

The places where you pull the parts yourself clean the cars up pretty well, but you would be horrified at what you can find in the standard salvage lot. My favorite find was a big chunk of scalp in a VW jetta. Under the seat was a bottle of Jack Daniels.

My two cents on US vs foreign autos: Nothing beats a 90s era V-6 Japanese car. If you can find a cheap source of genuine parts they’ll run forever. My latest cars have been two early 90’s Mitsubishi Diamantes. The first hit 256K when I blew the transmission coming out of the mountains just outside of Denver. Drove it home 600 miles in third gear. I then bought the second on Ebay for $2200. Still driving it with 156k miles. The only parts its needed have been a battery and wipers.

All I’ve ever asked of a car is that it start, run and drive every day. None of my big two cars could meet that requirement, all repeatedly failing with various self-induced ailments (Ford’s famous limp in mode for one) that sometimes even the dealer techs couldn’t diagnose. When you’re a stupid kid you think that’s normal. Cars are complicated, they’re hard to work on and expensive to fix. Nope, I was just a sucker and I had to figure it out for myself.

 
 
 
Comment by REhobbyist
2009-04-03 20:40:00

Blano, you must be a tall guy. But we are average-sized people and are very happy in our Ford Focus cars. They are reliable, inexpensive, and get great mileage.

 
 
Comment by Confused in Michigan
2009-04-03 13:42:04

I love these rants about the Big Three, they’re always the same - If only management was smarter, workers weren’t so lazy, if only they would build cars people want to buy (as if they don’t sell millions of cars a year). Nobody ever seems to notice the terror that comes out of Japan every time the Yen climbs to 90 to the dollar, because the fact is that at that exchange rate the Japanese car companies would GO OUT OF BUSINESS. Their whole business model revolves around manipulating their currency to essentially give themselves a subsidy on every car they sell. Take away that subsidy, and you can kiss your Corolla goodbye.

Comment by Julius
2009-04-03 14:07:39

The currency manipulation argument is a trumped up myth that has been perpetuated by Detroit as an excuse for its poor performance. Many of the most popular Japanese vehicles are in fact manufactured in America with non-unionized labor - and their quality is still better than what the Big Three/UAW is able to produce. The currency manipulation issue would be important if Asian manufacturers were still exporting most of their cars to America, but at this point that is not longer true. Honda even manufactures Accords in Ohio and exports them back to Japan.

Comment by skroodle
2009-04-03 17:10:45

That is not exactly true. Honda assembles Accords in Ohio, they do not build them there. You can look at the foreign content label to determine what % of the parts actually were built in the US.

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Comment by Julius
2009-04-03 17:33:30

OK, you’re splitting fine hairs here. The final assembly point, as far as I’m concerned, is where a car is “built”. Parts content is something else altogether, and even the Big Three have quite a few vehicles that do not have very high American parts percentages. (Not to mention the surprisingly large number of “American” vehicles, like the Ford Focus and Chrysler 300, that are assembled either in Mexico or Canada.)

 
 
Comment by Confused in Michigan
2009-04-06 07:43:05

The profit from every car sale is repatriated back to Japan from dollar to yen - take away the yen advantage and you take away the profit.

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Comment by pmseattle
2009-04-03 14:09:08

Just what country do you think corollas are manufactured in ?

Comment by Julius
2009-04-03 14:15:33

The United States @ the Fremont, California NUMMI plant. Look it up.

Corollas for foreign markets are made elsewhere.

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Comment by WT Economist
2009-04-03 10:24:46

The 25-year big mistake.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/30/AR2009033003291_pf.html

“The Treasury Department has for decades borrowed money from the Social Security trust fund to finance government operations. If it is no longer able to do so, it could be forced to borrow an additional $700 billion over the next decade from China, Japan and other investors. And at some point, perhaps as early as 2017, according to the CBO, the Treasury would have to start repaying the billions it has borrowed from the trust fund over the past 25 years, driving the nation further into debt or forcing Congress to raise taxes.”

Thanks again Alan Greenspan! His short run and long run sin of accomodating the grneeds of older generations are coming home to roost at the same time.

To people worrying about falling housing prices, I say that they’d better hope for a total real estate price collapse, because we’ll be in no position to pay much for housing in future years. More affordable housing is in fact the only good news.

Comment by hd74man
2009-04-03 11:29:18

RE: The 25-year big mistake.

The ultimate PONZI scheme.

And these worthless SOB’s from Congress who have allowed this all to transpire have the audacity to sit in their bully pulpits and sanctimoniously skewer the private sector operator’s for their sins, which in many circumstances were caused by regulatory fiat and dictate.

Comment by climber
2009-04-03 12:18:51

And yet folks use SS and Medicare as an example of how shining govt programs work and want to expand Medicare to cover everyone. Yee Ha!!!!!!

Comment by Julius
2009-04-03 17:37:09

Yeah, that’s one I’ve never been able to understand. The same folks that whine about how bad SS and Medicare have gotten also usually cite them as fantastic gov’t “success stories”.

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Comment by REhobbyist
2009-04-03 20:50:06

I saw two new patients today who are delighted to have turned 65. They had medical problems that made insurance unaffordable for them, but now, thanks to Medicare, they can afford care. Another patient (blind and in paraplegic) told me that his mother is waiting until she turns 65 in August to have her kidney problems addressed. We need to fix this.

 
Comment by rms
2009-04-03 22:12:50

“We need to fix this.”

Politically impossible, but It’ll fix itself given enough time.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Wickedheart
2009-04-03 11:31:50

“Thanks again Alan Greenspan! His short run and long run sin of accomodating the grneeds of older generations are coming home to roost at the same time.”

Sigh, this has nothing to do accommodating the older generations. SS technically has a surplus if you count IOU’s.

In the eighties SS taxes were raised to “pre-fund” the Boomers retirement. As I recall SS taxes were doubled. Then Greenie and RR decided to steal, oops, I mean borrow from the fund to hide ginormous deficit RR was running up. SS would be sitting pretty if the government had kept it’s nasty hands out of the kitty.

Comment by WT Economist
2009-04-03 11:36:10

“This has nothing to do accommodating the older generations.. would be sitting pretty if the government had kept it’s nsty hands out of the kitty.”

And what did the government do with the money, burn it?

Nope. I think if you look at federal revenues and expenditures as a percent of GDP since 1983, you’ll find that it cut income taxes and increased Medicare spending. Which is what the generations in charge wanted at the time — more spending (except on the poor), lower taxes (especially for the rich), worry about it later.

Welcome to later.

Comment by Muir
2009-04-03 16:46:39

“Nope. I think if you look at federal revenues and expenditures as a percent of GDP since 1983, you’ll find that it cut income taxes…”

Specially the top 1%

[It's good to be King]

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Comment by Blano
2009-04-03 12:45:38

This is why any politician on either side who talks about the “Social Security trust fund” as if there is such a thing and it’s safe needs to be slapped.

 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2009-04-03 10:27:37

“Hildebrand says, ‘we really need the first time buyer to…”

Watch out! They’re looking for volunteers, and that never ends well - for the volunteers.

Maybe they should arm these buyers with loan approvals the same way the Red Army armed its soldiers? One rifle (loan) to every two men (buyers) - when the first falls (defaults) the second picks up the gun (payments) and keeps shooting (paying).

Comment by Neil
2009-04-03 10:45:59

lol

When do people realize a home isn’t instant riches? Its supposed to be a means to cost control a certain standard of living (housing). I guess after we have another year of declining prices!

The NAR’s bull about a turnaround in six months is really working. Even among smart people who should know better! But those pesky loan rules are just ruining the game.

There are a few markets where its now smart to buy. But for every person who wants to buy in, there must be three still wishing to sell. When I see the bank shadow inventory purged… then I’ll know we’re getting to a bottom. There are too many people out in the LA exurbs who have gone mortgage payment free for over a year and the bank *still* hasn’t gotten around to a foreclosure!

Oh… every one I know is still spending at full throttle. No mortgage payment? Well that obviously leaves more funds for living the good life! (Seriously, this mania isn’t dead… yet.)

Got Popcorn?
Neil

Comment by Julius
2009-04-03 11:54:59

“Oh… every one I know is still spending at full throttle. No mortgage payment? Well that obviously leaves more funds for living the good life! (Seriously, this mania isn’t dead… yet.)”

I’m noticing the same thing, and I’m often left scratching my head as to where these people are getting the money to do this. It often seems like folks will spend and spend until they’ve exhausted one avenue of available credit, then switch to another until they’ve depleted that too, and so on until they run aground completely and have very limited options.

Another thing I’ve seen is that many newly jobless folks don’t seem to be overly worried about not having a job. Granted, some of the recently laid off I’ve encountered seem terrified and are trying to work every angle to get employed again, while others seem relaxed and almost smug - as if their unemployment is some sort of nice vacation.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-04-03 12:10:46

Back in the 1980s, being on unemployment in Wisconsin was called “joining the governor’s ski team.”

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Comment by climber
2009-04-03 12:16:51

A lot of people drive like that too. Fog - no problem, ice - no problem, snow - no problem. They just barrel along until they hit something.

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Comment by Neil
2009-04-03 16:04:01

Good analogy.

They’re also ignoring the ‘crunching sounds’ all around them…

Got Popcorn?
Neil

 
 
Comment by drumminj
2009-04-03 12:46:59

It can be a nice vacation, if you’ve been working hard for a while. When I first got laid off I enjoyed the thought…but I also had been saving for the eventuality so I knew I wasn’t in dire straits financially.

Of course, now that it’s six months later I’m starting to get a bit worried. But financially, I can weather this if need be, but I’d rather not burn through all my savings. But, eh…I like sleeping in :)

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Comment by FP
2009-04-03 20:55:29

Some are too young to experience the “dark side” of being laid off. 1997-2007 was a boom in job growth. People get laid off, get a job in a few days. not this time. If you get laid off, it’s for the long haul. A few people I know recently got laid off. They said they want to travel a bit or take a break. BUT this is different.

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Comment by CA renter
2009-04-04 05:26:08

Oh… every one I know is still spending at full throttle. No mortgage payment? Well that obviously leaves more funds for living the good life! (Seriously, this mania isn’t dead… yet.)
———————

This is the BIG story here, IMHO.

Only chumps are paying their mortgages now. Everyone else is getting a monthly stimulus payment in the form of **no housing payments.**

I think delinquencies are going to go parabolic in the next 12-18 months.

 
 
Comment by skroodle
2009-04-03 11:07:29

Well, to continue you analogy, the Red Army was ultimately successful in WWII. But they had to go through an awful lot of soldiers.

Are there really enough first time buyers able to step in and buy right now? I just don’t see it.

Comment by llking
2009-04-03 11:11:56

Yes, there will be plenty as soon as Gubmint covers their 20% down payment.

 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2009-04-03 11:25:15

Yeah, but who wants to be first to step into the breach?

Comment by llking
2009-04-03 12:31:57

sacrificial lambs

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Comment by WT Economist
2009-04-03 11:11:15

I just saw a post that summarizes the NY market perfectly. The real estate blog Brownstoner has its weekly “open house picks,” and has started checking on them six months later.

http://www.brownstoner.com/brownstoner/archives/2009/04/open_house_pick_256.php#comments

All still on the market, with limited or no price cuts. Brooklyn is still delusional. Perhaps they hope to avoid marking the houses to market while still selling them.

 
Comment by hd74man
2009-04-03 11:22:32

RE: California

Just back from a first 800 mile run from the Golden Gate to the Mexican border.

Completely impressed by the gracious civility of the people I met; from the hotel housemaids-rental car dudes-restaurant folks; to the Joe the Plumber guy drinking next to me at the Stone Brewery outside San Diego.

The only hard-core was the cable car operator in SF. But with all the hub-bub and pullin’ those big stop-and-go levers all day, I’ll give him a pass.

The physical grandeur of the place goes without saying.

Hard to imagine the state is in such deep financial shite.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-04-03 12:13:07

I biked down the coast of California in 1981. I, too, was impressed with the physical grandeur of the place.

Only sign of a fiscal crisis was a state park that was closed to campers. Well, that’s what the sign said. I rolled my bike around it and joined a motorcycle camper and his dog, Creature.

Motorcyclist was a bit of a philosopher, and that made for wonderful conversation.

Comment by bink
2009-04-03 14:54:23

Sidecar for the dog?

I’m tempted to take my motorcycle on a cross country trip, but it’s a Triumph and I don’t think I could carry all the spare parts.

 
 
 
Comment by crisrose
2009-04-03 11:29:50

“Jennifer Vaughn’s development in Homestead is one of many where prices seem to fall by the day. A 26-year-old first-time buyer, Ms. Vaughn closed on a three-bedroom, three-bathroom townhouse in November, paying $87,000 for the foreclosed property with an F.H.A. loan. The price was far below the $261,000 the house sold for in October 2006, but a few weeks ago, a townhouse with the same layout and fancier features sold for $75,000. And a third is about to close for $65,000, said Andy Lopez, a real estate agent who found Ms. Vaughn her townhouse. So already, she appears to owe more than her home is worth. Not that she minds. ‘I’m going to stay for five or six years at least,’ Ms. Vaughn said, ‘and I’m sure prices will go up somewhat by then.’”

Appears??? And you really expect your apartment to ‘appreciate’ 33 percent to break even in the next five years - while prices are still sinking???

Comment by Skip
2009-04-03 11:47:40

This is an example of how severe the housing bubble mentality has seeped into the subconscious. There is not even a hint of doubt that real estate will not rise over the next several years. A downward, or even flat trend is not even imaginable even when shown the evidence.

Yet.

Comment by Julius
2009-04-03 12:01:32

Agreed. It’s unbelievable. Any discussion on real estate seems to eventually get to the “when it comes back” stage, and there aren’t that many people who are willing to acknowledge that it’s probably not likely to come back full force for a while.

This is one of the main reasons why this recession is nowhere near over. The bubble mentality is not even close to dissipating in the minds of most people, and it seems like the only thing that will ultimately cause it to evaporate is if people witness consistently poor real estate performance for an extended period of time (i.e., years).

Comment by exeter
2009-04-03 12:28:03

I think this weeks closing blog post is a real doozy deserving a vote for the HBB hall of shame. What…… 11 out of 13 articles reflect deep deep denial even after all we’ve been through. Have these morons quoted in the article been living in a cave for the last 7 years? WTF????

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Comment by wmbz
2009-04-03 13:55:58

“This is one of the main reasons why this recession is nowhere near over. The bubble mentality is not even close to dissipating in the minds of most people.”

I was informed by my gay interior decorator neighbor yesterday afternoon, that the recession was over. His business is up 27% for March YOY. He says his customers, excuse me, ‘clients’ are tired of all the bad news and are redoing their places to be ready for the upcoming RE boom that is sure to come before years end!

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Comment by Muir
2009-04-03 16:58:00

“His business is up 27% for March YOY. He says his customers, excuse me, ‘clients’ are tired of all the bad news and are redoing their places to be ready for the upcoming RE boom that is sure to come before years end!”

Your gay interior decorator neighbor may be right.
I’m starting to get the whiff of a major inflation underway.

 
Comment by L. Opine
2009-04-03 19:15:05

How is his being gay relevant?

 
Comment by AnonyRuss
2009-04-04 08:14:37

“How is his being gay relevant?”

It is descriptive. Like the term PC thug.

 
 
 
Comment by Lisa
2009-04-03 17:48:24

“This is an example of how severe the housing bubble mentality has seeped into the subconscious. There is not even a hint of doubt that real estate will not rise over the next several years. A downward, or even flat trend is not even imaginable even when shown the evidence.”

It doesn’t help matters that the gov’t is openly trying to prop up these phony values with 4% mortgage rates and loan modifications. It just helps fuel the denial.

But this is all about keeping Americans sending in those mortgage payments on their debt traps.

I’m hopeful the mentality will shift over the next couple of years. If you can buy a house for a great price you can easily afford, you don’t need it to appreciate. Just pay off the mortgage as quickly as you can, and have a paid-for house to help with retirement years.

 
 
Comment by Muir
2009-04-03 16:55:15

For those not familiar with the area, Homestead was basically tomato farms.
It’s the boonies, way out there.
There’s also a major waste dump field where you can take asbestos and carcasses (only such facility here)
It stinks for miles and miles.
There’s settling problems on new construction.
It’s in a flood zone.

Did I forget anything?
Oh, yeah… Andrew, that nasty storm a while back.
It decimated the area.

Comment by gsinbe
2009-04-04 07:27:27

You forgot the big prison. Lots of sodium lights shining all night long….

 
 
Comment by Ernst Blofeld
2009-04-03 21:24:32

Eh, I don’t think she’s that bad off. That’s equivalent to renting for around $750/mo for the $90K purchase price. That’s not all that bad.

 
 
Comment by reuven
2009-04-03 12:57:19

Interesting Reuters story today:

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE53200O20090403

They call it the condo “death spiral”, recognizing the problems that happen when a critical mass of tenants stop paying their maintenance fees….

Comment by WT Economist
2009-04-03 15:00:32

I remember when Joel Kotkin’s first book, Edge Cities, touted the advantage of homeonwer’s associations and gated communities over municipal provided services — no redistribution of income, no services provided to those who couldn’t afford to pay.

Well lookie here — redistribution to the irresponsible, private sector style.

 
Comment by climber
2009-04-03 16:15:53

How did you like the proposal to collect HOA dues from renters whose landlords won’t cough up the dough?

Governments are bound and determined not to punish the guilty if there is an easier pocket to pick within sight.

Comment by David
2009-04-03 18:25:34

Better for the renter to send money to the HOA, than to a deadbeat owner. the owner could be pocketing the rent while not paying the mortgage, taxes, or HOA dues.

 
 
 
Comment by hc
2009-04-03 13:08:58

RE is coming back this year, or soon; don’t doubt it.

With the new FASB mark to fantasy ruling, the following changes to key statistics is under way:

1. Banks capital ratio is now fantasy ratio, and will allow them to lend.
2. Banks can now hold onto REOs, indefinitely. There’s no incentive to sell at market. By holding REOs, banks can rate that REO asset at 2007 level. Sure they’ll have to put taxes and maintenance, but that’s going to be like a cost of business to keep 2007-model alive.
3. Similarly, Banks can now DRAGGG ON the NOD and foreclosure process. Expect things like allowing people to stay, semi-permantly (as in for months and years at a time), rent free; without any foreclosure NODs or auctions or what not. Next few months you’ll see a sharp decline in new foreclosures as the banks adapt.
4. Commercial RE (CRE) was going to be a bomb in 2009, because all those commercial loans are due and the market valuation means no bank will refi them. Well no more, we’re not using market valuation anymore, so those model all says these CREs are awesome profits, so there’ll be increased refi of CREs and the crisis averted.
5. With the new model, HELOCs may even be a viable source of credit for consumers now; Those on the margin may find banks offering HELOC now, the home ATM is now open!
6. Ditto to Credit Card ABSs, the model says much better profitability; In fact, there’ll be more solicitations for people to own more cards; coz the model says it’s such good business, plus the customer can use one card to pay off another — further enhancing default rate for their model!
7. The obvious is that all the bank’s financial releases for the rest of 2009 will beat expectation now. So now permabulls have ammunition to say recession is over.

Bears are fighting a losing cause with the deck to heavily stacked against them.

Are these going to be a permanent solution, or actually save us from impending doom? Heck no. It’s the same playbook from Japan that pretty much sealed their fate to the 20 year economic decline. *BUT* it’ll drag everything into SLOW MOTION decline.

Kinda like treating an acute disease that *MAY* kill you, by taking a poison that kills the bacteria and the short term disease problem, but guarantees you will die SLOWLY. We just did that.

I thought I could time the market and buy a house in 2010 or 2011; I can see my folly now. The govt will make it a money losing proposition to own a house for 20 years. The govt will stretch it out so long, so maximum number of people are bearing the housing decline and nobody can “time” and get “out” — in the end you need a place to stay, and that is their trump card.

I think I’m so depressed I’ll go jump off a bridge somewhere now.

Comment by cereal
2009-04-03 15:51:19

hc, fret not my friend. Go about your business. Start a hobby. Occupy yourself.

The laws of economics will NOT be mocked by the governments of this world.

 
Comment by LostAngels
2009-04-03 16:23:39

“Commercial RE (CRE) was going to be a bomb in 2009, because all those commercial loans are due and the market valuation means no bank will refi them. Well no more, we’re not using market valuation anymore, so those model all says these CREs are awesome profits, so there’ll be increased refi of CREs and the crisis averted.”

Do you know much about CRE? Ever heard of cash flow and debt service? Have you seen vacancy rates lately for CRE? Increasing vacancy rates = lower cash flow coverage. Without adequate cash flow coverage banks will not be providing refinancing for CRE loans.

I won’t even attempt to refute the rest of your post as it would be a waste of time. Keep one thing in mind though - no job, no loan. You, Wall Street, CNBC, NAR, CAR, etc. can spew all the pollyanna you want. As unemployment continues to rise, RE and CRE are heading down along with the stock market.

But please be my guest and by lots of homes and commercial properties.

Comment by Muir
2009-04-03 17:11:04

Mr. LostAngels

Although I am nobody to argue with such an esteemed and learned personage as yourself, please indulge this unworthy one to speak at your beneficent feet.

If they manage to hyper-inflate, you can take all your condescending moralization and stick it where the sun don’t shine.

The man has a very valid point.

But, as you said, “But please be my guest and [sic]by lots of homes and commercial properties.”
Then, I’ll say be my guest and buy 5000 shares of SRS.

good day my good man.

_

Comment by Julius
2009-04-03 17:42:04

But as we’ve been stating around before, hyperinflating the currency would be somewhat disingenuous in this situation because corresponding wage inflation isn’t likely. Currency hyperinflation would strip a lot of buying power out of potential homebuyers.

I still feel as though this is entire bad RE asset problem is quite complex and essentially “too big to bail”. Every time Washington thinks it’s plugged all the holes it seems as though another one appears.

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Comment by LostAngels
2009-04-03 19:56:41

Hyper-inflation around the corner? Sorry, I see mostly deflation where it counts the most - wages, RE, rent, etc. Some day we will have inflation but it won’t happen in 2009.

If hyper-inflation happens, all bets are off. But really where will the hyper-increase in wages come from to cause hyper-inflation. Not going to happen. The US standard of living is declining for every class except for the uber rich.

SRS is a bad bet as are most ETFs. SRS tells me absolutely nothing about the CRE market. CMBS market is dead and not coming back for a long time.

Feel free to comb through this link if you are wondering what’s in store for CRE http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/search/label/CRE

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Comment by Muir
2009-04-03 17:01:20

“4. Commercial RE (CRE) was going to be a bomb in 2009, because all those commercial loans are due and the market valuation means no bank will refi them. Well no more, we’re not using market valuation anymore, so those model all says these CREs are awesome profits, so there’ll be increased refi of CREs and the crisis averted.”

SRS <——————- $25

 
 
Comment by hd74man
2009-04-03 13:22:44

RE: think I’m so depressed I’ll go jump off a bridge somewhere now.

Gotta hand it to the Cali DOT’ers.

They could succumb to the apologist “save the world” sniveler’s who’d erect a jumper fence on the Golden Gate, thereby spoiling the view of Alcatraz and the city.

Instead ya get a helpline notice posted on a girder noting that a 200′ jump could be “fatal and tragic”…(do ya think?)

Must be an -expatriate “Live Free or Die” New Hampshire-ite runnin’ the show.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-04-03 15:25:03

One of my best CA bicycling memories was walking and bicycling across the Golden Gate. I took my time. For one thing, the view of the Pacific was just out of this world. Not to mention the city to the south.

As for jumpers? Didn’t see any. Seemed as if everyone else was just out to enjoy a lovely afternoon in early November.

Comment by boethius
2009-04-03 17:50:58

used to live in S.F. and have crossed the GG bridge by bicycle probably a few hundred times (including once on the way down from Vancouver)…finally did see a dead jumper bobbing like a jellyfish in the water one day, a surreal scene, a BIG floating flare the bridge staff had dropped rose and fell with him as the swells came through the gate…took a long time to get that image out of my head.
Still opposed to a barrier though…

 
 
Comment by combotechie
2009-04-03 15:39:47

“… erect a jumper fence on the Golden gate …”

Yeah, right.

Lol. Where there’s a will there’s a way.

Comment by Zombie Banks
2009-04-03 16:11:34

I have too much bottled water and snackfood in storage to jump but I am still a zombie.
Hey, what if the “black swan event” is the new american socialist society? That could be worse than a so called terror attack.

 
 
Comment by exeter
2009-04-03 15:42:34

Snivelers….. the word is beautiful. Sniveling realtors….. I recall my father referring to JFK as a sniveling puke. I guess it’s just one of those words that has a classic, cutting edge to it.

Sniveling realtors……

 
 
Comment by CrackerJIm
2009-04-03 15:18:00

“A friend in Colorado, Seiler said, wanted to sell his home and move to Phoenix to be closer to his children. He’ll probably end up keeping the house and renting, Seiler said, rather than taking a hit by selling in this market. ‘He doesn’t owe anything on his house, but he certainly can’t get the money he could have a couple months ago,’ Seiler said.”

I don’t understand this particular quandary. Yes, it is true Seiler cannot get his imaginary price in Colorado, but I will wager that Phoenix prices have moved a heckuva lot furthur down than Colorado. Sell low and quick, buy even lower and quicker!

Comment by Mo Money
2009-04-03 17:54:12

If his house is already paid off, where is the hit ? He’s still going to make money on it if he sells, just not as much as bubble prices. He’ll be dead before he sells due to greed.

 
 
Comment by cobaltblue
2009-04-03 17:13:44

The numbers are not going to improve anytime soon. You don’t stop an avalanche with happy talk and G20 meetings:

WASHINGTON (AP) — Unemployment zoomed to 8.5 percent last month, the highest in a quarter-century, as employers axed 663,000 more workers and pushed the nation’s jobless ranks past 13 million. The hard times were only expected to get harder — a painful 10 percent jobless rate before long. The current rate would be even higher — 15.6 percent — if it included laid-off workers who have given up looking for new jobs or have had to settle for part-time work because they can’t do any better. That’s the highest on record for that number in figures that go back to 1994.

Let me ask you bloggers this: Why on earth AREN’T “laid-off workers who have given up looking for new jobs or have had to settle for part-time work because they can’t do any better” included in the number the MSM always throws around? Is it because that might be too Gloomy Gus for anyone with a brain? If you haven’t been able to find work in a year or two years you have already gone into your own personal Depression.
This is probably a very dangerous time for those you think some kind of economic “bottom” is forming. Unemployment, foreclosures, and bankruptcies are going to spread like cancer through the body of America.

Comment by SaladSD
2009-04-03 19:07:49

It is rather bizarre how on the day another large chunk of Americans are reported to lose there jobs, that the stock market is actually giddy and goes UP. The way it works is that if news is really bad, than that’s really good, since it couldn’t get worse. So, if I’m really really bleeding a lot, like sprouting a gusher, that’s actually a good thing. Once I bleed out then I won’t bleed anymore…

Comment by Julius
2009-04-03 20:10:20

I’m starting to think that Wall St. doesn’t care about anything that doesn’t directly concern Wall St.

 
 
 
Comment by Zombie Banks
2009-04-03 17:32:50

Black Swans are flappin’

 
Comment by BlueStar
2009-04-03 18:37:15

Tonight Bill Moyers has a fantastic interview with former bank regulator William K. Black. All those people doing Tea Parties should watch this show. The guy cuts em’ deep. Names all the guilty parties and that includes Obama’s Tres. Dept. It’s the best indictment of the current clan of thieves, lairs and crooks I have heard so far.

Don’t worry, nothing will be done. Obama is the guy that want’s to just let bygones by bygones. How come Rush, Hannity, Bill-o etc. aren’t screaming about this?

Comment by SDGreg
2009-04-04 07:58:58

That’s an excellent interview. It should be required viewing.

 
 
Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2009-04-03 19:18:33

Am I the only one who doesn’t see the recession ending at the end of this year, like B is telling everyone. I’m puzzled as to how, like he says, the recession will end, but unemployment will keep on rising. The way I figure it, more unemployment equals less spending, which should prolong the recession. I realize there might have been an inverse relation between the two in the past. But gone are the days (I hope) when an unemployed person could lie about his or her salary, sign their names on the dotted line, and get an unsecured $10,000 line of credit, or HELOC their overvalued houses for some spending money. Am I crazy or what?

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-04-04 00:38:44

“‘We’re in a declining market and we have to stabilize it,’ said Carol Ornellis of Visionary Home Builders.”

Translation: WHERE’S MY BAILOUT?

 
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