Bits Bucket For April 26, 2009
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Imagine Obama closing all schools and government offices in New York or Los Angeles until further notice. That’s the equivalent of what’s happening in Mexico now:
Mexico’s Calderon Declares Emergency Amid Swine Flu Outbreak
By Thomas Black
April 25 (Bloomberg) — Mexican President Felipe Calderon declared an emergency in his country’s swine flu outbreak, giving him powers to order quarantines and suspend public events.
Authorities have canceled school at all levels in Mexico City and the state of Mexico until further notice, and the government has shut most public and government activities in the area. The emergency decree, published today in the state gazette, gives the president authority to take more action.
“The federal government under my charge will not hesitate a moment to take all, all the measures necessary to respond with efficiency and opportunity to this respiratory epidemic,” Calderon said today during a speech to inaugurate a hospital in the southern state of Oaxaca.
At least 20 deaths in Mexico from the disease are confirmed, Health Minister Jose Cordova said yesterday. The strain is a variant of H1N1 swine influenza that has also sickened at least eight people in California and Texas. As many as 68 deaths may be attributed to the virus in Mexico, and about 1,000 people in the Mexico City area are showing symptoms of the illness, Cordoba said.
Obama’s Visit
The first case was seen in Mexico on April 13. The outbreak coincided with the President Barack Obama’s trip to Mexico City on April 16. Obama was received at Mexico’s anthropology museum in Mexico City by Felipe Solis, a distinguished archeologist who died the following day from symptoms similar to flu, Reforma newspaper reported. The newspaper didn’t confirm if Solis had swine flu or not.
The Mexican government is distributing breathing masks to curtail the disease’s spread. There is no vaccine against the new strain of swine flu, health authorities said.
Museums, theaters and other venues in the Mexico City area, where large crowds gather, have shut down voluntarily and concerts and other events canceled to help contain the disease. Two professional soccer games will be played tomorrow in different Mexico City stadiums without any fans, El Universal newspaper reported. Catholic masses will be held, the newspaper said, although church officials urged worshipers to wear breath masks and to avoid contact.
Schools will likely remain closed next week, Calderon said in the Oaxaca speech. The decree allows Calderon to regulate transportation, enter any home or building for inspection, order quarantines and assign any task to all federal, state and local authorities as well as health professionals to combat the disease.
“The health of Mexicans is a cause that we’re defending with unity and responsibility,” Calderon said. “I know that although it’s a grave problem, a serious problem, we’re going to overcome it.”
Normal Airport Operations
Mexico City’s international airport, which handles about 70,000 passengers each day, is operating normally, said Victor Mejia, a spokesman. Passengers are given a questionnaire asking if they have flu symptoms and recommending they cancel their trip and see a doctor if they do. The measures are voluntary, Mejia said, and no case of swine flu in airport passengers, workers or visitors has been confirmed.
Authorities throughout Central America have issued alerts to prevent the outbreak from spreading. Guatemala ordered tighter control yesterday of its northern border with Mexico, according to EFE. Gerberth Morales, who’s heading the Guatemala government’s response, said no cases of swine flu have been reported in his country, the Spanish news agency reported.
Brazil is intensifying vigilance in ports, airports and borders to check travelers’ health, luggage, aircrafts and ships in a preventive action against the outbreak in Mexico, the Agency for Sanitary Vigilance said on its Web site.
“Obama was received at Mexico’s anthropology museum in Mexico City by Felipe Solis, a distinguished archeologist who died the following day from symptoms similar to flu, Reforma newspaper reported.”
Unfortunate coinkydink.
The weird thing about it is, outside of Mexico, it seems to be rather mild and not all that lethal. So far, anyway.
“Unfortunate coinkydink.”
The tin-foil-hatter in me wishes this wasn’t coinciding with a big ‘ol bust.
Nature has a habit of kicking you in the @ss when you are already bent over.
That’s very true, Blue Skye. It seems to go with the territory.
Which is exactly why the boom time economy will prove so foolish. Because if it ain’t this flu, there’s plenty of other potential Black Swans out there.
Yep….
I guess someone can start the list of people Obama murdered and they can start with this guy.
Oh, whoa, that’s “Mena” you.
“the Agency for Sanitary Vigilance said on its Web site.”
What does this agency do, exactly? Make sure people wash their hands and don’t pick their noses in public?
Makes money and pays self importance for the people who run it?
We will never know the real statistical truth behind any out break. The media will talk about it for a few days. It will be hyped by the politicians. After that they will shift the cause and focus and blame some thing else and a lid will be put on the whole out break. This happens every time. Why should it be different this time? I suggest everyone take adequate protection individually. Trust yourself before you trust the government.
Trust yourself before you trust the government ?
Some truth to that…
I could swear just last week I read a blurb about the gov’t cutting funding for flu research and preparations. Anyone else see that?
I only mention that in the context of the idea that the gov’t can somehow flawlessly navigate us all through this bust and onto endless prosperity.
A couple of years ago I was in the far east on a trip when it was time for flu shots here in the U.S. I didn’t know any better, so I went to a local clinic to get a shot. They told me that the flu vaccine for that part of the world is useless for the western hemisphere. So I skipped the shot and when I returned home, I asked more questions and was told that our regular annual flu shots are very hit and miss, because they are directed at only one strain (or family or whatever its called).
Haven’t had the flu in more than ten years. Not looking forward to next time. Does Scotch help?
Does Scotch help?
Scotch—as long as it’s good Scotch— helps everything.
The way it works is this: Each flu is designated by surface proteins called “antigens.” Those antigens are what the vaccine trains your immune system to recognize and attack. They shift on a regular cycle, in partially-predictable ways.
The vaccine has a long lead-up time to production; it has to be incubated for several weeks or months. Therefore, the vaccine manufacturers have to make an educated guess about which strain of flu is going to be “this season’s flu.”
When you get vaccinated, you are TOTALLY protected against that strain, and PARTIALLY protected to strains within a few points on either side. The further away you get from the protection, the more dangerous the flu can be to you… and that’s why they worry about zoonosis (with an umlaut.) That’s when a strain crosses species barriers and mutates; pigs are especially dangerous that way because they can get strains from other animals as well as humans and cross-breed them.
We may be using a vaccine that is more similar to this flu than the version Mexico uses, or other factors such as pollution and situation (such as possibility of secondary infections) may be making the flu more deadly there. Or it could just be that we haven’t been hit yet.
In any case, getting the flu vaccine is a good idea in every year, because it offers partial protection across a good swath of the possibilities, and even if you’re not going to get it bad, you can keep from spreading it to someone else. (I am in contact with several immune-compromised people so I consider these things.)
A question for you, B. Durbin-
How long does a given year’s vaccination provide protection against the flu strains it was designed to combat?
My understanding is that once you get certain diseases, like chicken pox, your body becomes immune to future infections.
Is that the case with flu shots? If so, then my thought is to look at flu vaccinations as though you’re building a portfolio of protection. Over three, five, or ten years of annual flu vaccinations one could build antibody protection against a wide array of viruses, provided the vaccines are designed with this in mind. If the protection from a flu vaccine is long-lived in this manner then I hope someone at the Centers for Disease Control is looking at it this way.
Of course this is no guarantee when you’re dealing with rapidly mutating organisms like flu viruses.
I haven’t had a flu shot in more than ten years. If I catch it, I stay home from work and try not to give it to anyone else - we’ve all had thoughtless colleagues who come to work sick because they don’t want to burn vacation time. “Whatever doesn’t kill me makes me stronger” - you have to get sick a few times to build up anti-bodies.
Sammy - Yo! - nice to see you posting.
B. Durbin - is it correct for me to conclude that banning importation of [deceased] pork products is baloney? IIRC, the stuff that makes us sick from foods improperly cooked or handled is bacterial, not viral. So if I buy a Mexican pork chop and sear it on both sides, I can’t imagine one chance in a million that I could catch swine flu from that.
Just to clarify— I Am Not a Doctor or Epidemiologist. I just listen to them a lot.
My understanding is that some immunities fade with time. Tetanus is one such— you need a booster every decade or so, which they’ll usually give in the hospital after an accident unless they have records of a recent shot. (I’m getting a booster soon on general principles.) Others can last a lifetime— see chicken pox (a herpes variant.)
I don’t know where flu falls on that spectrum, but I’d think it was somewhere closer to chicken pox (a virus) than tetanus (a bacteria.) But as there’s literally thousands if not millions of possible antigen combinations, you’ll only have so much luck in getting a broad-spectrum flu immunity.
And no, you won’t get the flu from pork products.* It might get passed along the delivery chain by the handlers. I think at this point, it’s more of a reassurance tactic than a public health decision.
*Come to think of it, it IS in the outside realm of possibility. Viruses can crystallize and last for centuries. However, you’d have to have a long string of very specific conditions for this to occur, most of which are highly unlikely, and there’d be a whole lot of things more likely to happen to you, like getting hit by lightning.
“Imagine Obama closing all schools and government offices in New York or Los Angeles until further notice. That’s the equivalent of what’s happening in Mexico now:”
A bunch of federal offices could function very well as long as the employees had their office laptops, a high speed internet connection and a phone. I don’t know about state and local offices. Obviously, most teaching and law enforcement has to happen face to face.
One of the essay questions in the final for a public health class I took required figuring out who was most vulnerable to pandemic illnesses and where the worst transfer points would be. I thought that the hardest transfer points to avoid would be supermarkets. You can close schools for a few weeks, especially if you are keeping many adults home from work, but we just don’t have a way to distribute food without a lot of personal interaction and touching shared objects.
Re: Food distribution in time of quarantine for person-to-person contagion.
UPS the staples, grow the produce yourself or used canned/frozen/dehydrated which you have wisely stockpiled–including cheeses and preserved meats. These things generally run their course in a few months’ time, so the privation would be somewhat limited.
Well, that is good protection for the individuals who have the space, wherewithal and foresight to do it, but it wouldn’t have been a good answer for a test asking you to figure out, as a pulic health official, who besides emergency first responders and medical personnel need to get prioritized for a vaccine program with limited supply.
I also noted that you could make cab rides traceable by public health workers by demanding that only credit cards be used but that there were serious privacy and access issues involved. In retrospect, that was kind of a fun test. The questions were interesting enough that I would have attended a session in which the professors discussed the answers we came up with and told us what we missed that they were hoping to see.
Infrastructure personnel and law enforcement are next.
As for civil rights, you don’t have any in national emergencies. For very practical reasons.
I have libertarian views in many situations, but my views on public health emergencies definitely tend fascist.
I’m very fascinated by pandemics. And a strong immediate response– the right one, at least– is very important to keeping epidemics under control.
Sounds like the perfect pretext for a power grab by the federal gov’t IMO.
These things generally run their course in a few months’ time, so the privation would be somewhat limited.
Actually, not at all true. The 1918 pandemic lasted a couple of years. The infections and death tolls would come in waves, sometimes seemingly bypassing certain geographical areas only to return later on with a vengeance. Things would die down and people would think that the worst was over, then suddenly another several hundred people in their town/city would be sick again.
I would recommend “America’s Forgotten Pandemic: the Influenza of 1918″ by Alfred Crosby for a good historical overview of the last time the world faced something like this.
Was assuming any given, discrete population. Obviously there will be peripheral outbreaks. A very efficient virus, it killed rapidly (actually the virus didn’t kill, the subsequent bacterial pneumonia did.) The majority of the deaths in the 1917-18 pandemic did indeed tend to cluster within the span of a few months…again, within each discrete population it hit.
Check your Crosby.
That one killed my grandfather, when my dad was a small boy. Cause of death was listed as pneumonia. I wonder if the pneumonia shots we’ve had mitigate the effects of the flu in that regard.
“the hardest transfer points to avoid would be supermarkets. You can close schools for a few weeks, especially if you are keeping many adults home from work, but we just don’t have a way to distribute food without a lot of personal interaction and touching shared objects.”
Webvan? At least that would eliminate the retail level of interaction.
Isn’t this an airborne virus? If you keep say 10 feet away from people, so as to not breath in their sneezes or coughs, never touch your face or nose without washing your hands in case you touch live virus, you should be OK. Any virus on food that you eat is killed by stomach acid. I think airborne is easier for everyday person to combat rather than a virus that can still live once injested. Or maybe no?
Wasn’t it in the late 60s or early 70s that everyone was scared of the swine flu and lined up for shots? Seems like some of them died from the shots, but no one got the flu, it was a case of the cure being worse than the disease.
“Never hurts to question the authorities, but don’t expect nobody to tell you the truth.” - Dove Linkhorn
Can o’ worms, Losty.
You’ll get the autism and HIV conspiracy crowd started, and it’s too fine of a morning for that.
But I think the 1976 vaccine got a ton of bad press, but only because the vaccine was poorly prepared and side effects seemed especially common that year.
The Spanish Flu after WWI was the worst flu pandemic in modern history, and that was pretty horrible. Millions died, and they were mostly young adults instead of older folks. The theory behind that was that older people had “immunological memory”, whereas younger people had an immunological overreaction that led to fatal pulmonary edema. It also caused almost all the known cases of encephalitis lethargica, the condition that caused the epidemic Parkinsonism in the movie “Awakenings”.
The fear is that if something as virulent as that ever came around again, they had better be prepared, and prepared early. These things can spread like wildfire.
“But I think the 1976 vaccine got a ton of bad press, but only because the vaccine was poorly prepared and side effects seemed especially common that year.”
That’s about the long and short of it.
My dad was forced by Bell to get those shots and he fell very ill for a few days. Only days he missed during his whole career.
I had the swine flu in ‘68 when I was a healthy, buff 20 something; thought I was going to die. Weak as a kitten; sheets felt like lead; could barely do more than drink and go to the head; delirious sleep. Terrorists couldnt devise a nastier pandemic to put the fork in this economy; Mexico is toast, and were on the platter next to the grill.
There was an outbreak of the swine flu at Ft. Dix in New Jersey. This was 1976. At the time I was in the Army. We were told to line up and get the flu shot. No choices were given. It was known there was side effects. However, the Army did not want to risk an all outbreak of the swine flu.
I had to get anthrax shots when I was in the military. What a scam that was, and a lot of people had very serious health effects from the vaccine.
Asia on alert as swine flu threat spreads:
HONG KONG (AFP) — Asian health officials went on alert Sunday as a flu strain that has killed dozens of people in Mexico appeared to have spread to New Zealand, underscoring warnings of a potential pandemic.
Governments across the region, which has in recent years been at the forefront of the SARS and bird flu epidemics, stepped up checks at airports and urged the public to be on guard for symptoms of the new multi-strain flu.
Ten New Zealand students who recently travelled to Mexico are “likely” to have contracted swine fever, Health Minister Tony Ryall said Sunday — the first suspected cases in the region of more than three billion people.
They were among a group of three teachers and 22 students from Auckland who returned home on Saturday. Thirteen students and one teacher had displayed flu-like symptoms and were quarantined in their homes while undergoing tests.
“Ministry of Health officials advise me there is no guarantee these students have swine influenza, but they consider it likely,” Ryall said.
Samples from the students, who already tested positive for influenza A, were being sent to a World Health Organisation (WHO) laboratory in Melbourne, Australia to determine whether they had swine flu, Ryall said.
Mexican officials said the death toll from the new strain had probably risen to 81, while 10 people were believed infected in the United States and there were two possible cases in France.
The WHO warned Saturday that the virus had the potential to become a pandemic, labelling the current outbreak “a public health emergency of international concern.”
In Japan, airports tightened checks on passengers arriving from Mexico, with quarantine officials giving out face masks and using thermography imaging cameras to screen passengers for signs of fever.
Health officials handed out leaflets to those headed for Mexico and the United States, urging them to wear face masks and wash their hands regularly, while a health ministry hotline attracted some 400 calls.
Agriculture minister Shigeru Ishiba appealed for calm, saying that the drug Tamiflu “is very effective. We have enough stockpiles in Japan.”
South Korea followed suit, ordering all passengers on flights from virus-hit nations to pass through a strengthened quarantine check with a test kit at the airports.
Authorities also put Mexican and US pork in quarantine to check for the disease.
Australia urged people who had recently returned from Mexico and had developed flu-like symptoms to seek medical advice.
How many people have died to date from this swine flu outbreak? I am thinking less than a couple of hundred, at the outside upper limit. For example, how does the number of swine flu deaths in Mexico City to date compare to the daily death toll there due to other causes?
But right ahead and fan the flames of hysteria, as someone needs to fill in for Aladinsane, who no longer posts here.
The Hogger Flew reminds me of the 9/11 hysteria and the utter selfishness of many northeasterners who were hoping(praying) for another one in multi-generation sucker punch on a metro hub in the northeast a’la 9/11 so as to drive up housing prices in far flung regions of New England.
It’s true folks…. The brain dead a$$wipes believed housing in the northeast spiraled upward because of 9/11. And I heard two of these pukes say they were hoping it would happen again.
pukes say they were hoping it would happen again ??
Dick Cheney ??
Hahaahahaah!
Good one, scdave.
Exeter, people have a similar sentiment in Florida, except for hurricanes.
I had a real estate agent tell me a good time to buy real estate here on the peninsula is after a couple of good earthquakes.
“hysteria”
Exactimento!
Hysteria, perhaps. But then again, maybe it will accomplish what our gov’t doesn’t seem to have the inclination to do otherwise, which is to close the borders. You’ve gotta admit, it provides a nice, politically correct pretext. And this lawmaker happens to be a Demo. Good for him.
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/lawmaker-wants-border-closed-over-swine-flu-2009-04-25.html
The only contagion that concerns me regarding this swine flu outbreak is that of MSM-fueled mass hysteria; apparently the posters on this blog are not immune.
Yeah this alarmist situation is out of hand. I remember back in 2003 there was an Asian flu outbreak. Well I worked with a bunch of Asians then and now. There were some white people who were paranoid when someone was coughing. Some coworkers travel to Asia every now and then so I can sort of understand the paranoia.
Washing hands more frequently with soap and hot water, avoiding crowded places, and staying away from people who sneeze or cough is good enough.
“The only contagion that concerns me regarding this swine flu outbreak is that of MSM-fueled mass hysteria; apparently the posters on this blog are not immune.”
Yep, and let’s not forget this is the perfect diversion to draw public attention from the real “insolvency pandemic” happen in the banking system.
DOC
‘Yep, and let’s not forget this is the perfect diversion to draw public attention from the real “insolvency pandemic” happen in the banking system.’
To the extent this is an underlying motive (which I personally doubt), it could seriously backfire. I recall the last major SoCal housing crash was accompanied by myriad plagues and pestilences of Biblical proportions (Rodney King & LA riots, OJ trial, Northridge earthquake, etc) and I expect this one to be no different. Headline disaster news is not something I view as a bullish indicator for home sales.
Over 50 million died in 1918 century from swine flu and 1/3 of worlds population contracted it. The interesting thing about it then, was that it attached and killed the strongest people more so than the young or elderly.
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979.htm
My great-grandma died of it. My gran–she’s 93 now–has told how her mother got sick after breakfast and died after dinner.
I remember making a trip to the cemetery one Memorial Day when I was about 8 and walking around looking at everything and then asking someone, ‘Why did everyone die in 1918′? I must have asked a history-iggerant fool, because they didn’t know either. I hadn’t ever heard of the terrible pandemic then, so I had to make the connection later, when I got interested in germs.
Anyway, sitting here on this pretty, sunny Sunday morn, I am really really hoping we don’t get another Spanish flu event.
Go to church Olygal…there’s STILL time to save yourself.
I don’t know ’bout the advice above, Oly.
“… avoiding crowded places, and staying away from people who sneeze or cough is good enough…” Sounds like church to me.
Oh wait, replace sneeze or cough with yawn or snore…
The life you save may be your own!
My grandfather lost his brother to the 1917 flu.
“My great-grandma died of it.”
I was about to suggest that perhaps you and my lovely wife are related, but her grandmother (the one whose mother died in the 1918 epidemic) passed away a decade ago.
P.S. There is still a fairly good chance you are related…
P.S. There is still a fairly good chance you are related…
Oh, yeah? Tell me about yer theory.
It’s it because she’s Mormon and possibly from a Mormon family, and I’m from a lonnnng line of Mormons who followed Brigham across the wildlands to Utarr, praying earnestly and walking earnestly and dying earnestly all along the whole long-suffering way?
Is she related to ol’ Horndog Joe the Profit Hisself? Because me too!
(Of course, we ALLLL of us here on the HBB, and perhaps everyone else alive as well, are likely related to ol’ Joe Smith, seeing as how he was so fond of accumulating bunches of 14-year-old sister-wives….
“Is she related to ol’ Horndog Joe the Profit Hisself?”
No, but she is a bonafide Daughter of the Utah Pioneers, whose ancestors include one who sailed on the ship Brooklyn captained by Sam Brannin (Mormon pioneer who founded Sacramento and Calistoga), two Mormon Battalion members (who marched all the way from Iowa to San Diego circa 1850) and at least one direct ancestor who resided in Nauvoo. You get the idea.
The problem with this type of flue outbreaks is not necessarily the amount of initial deaths reported, but the speed of propagation and infection. In the last couple of days cases have been reported in LA, Texas, NYC and as far away as New Zealand. The other thing to watch is the mortality and morbility rates, and so far the mortality rate seems to be confined to people who live in Mexico.
If this bug kills its victims too fast, they will not have time to contaminate others before symptoms are apparent, and therefore the outbreak is relatively small (ebola), if it is a bit slower, it can spread quickly, and suddenly you have a very nasty problem on your hands (like this one). As far as the morbility rate, how hard is it to get infected, and how much exposure does it need? TB is extremely contagious, while some other bugs depend on the immune system being weakened.
One clear example of what can happen is the small pox epidemic in the indian tribes in North America in the 18th centrury, where a small number of initial infections, turned out into a massive problem. (and lets PLEASE leave Ward Churchill out of this one? It is just an example of how a nasty bug can spread in a population that does not have defenses for it.)
“One clear example of what can happen is the small pox epidemic in the indian tribes in North America in the 18th centrury, where a small number of initial infections, turned out into a massive problem.”
You are drawing on a situation before the advent of modern medicine (i.e., before the germ theory of disease was widely understood and accepted) as a ‘clear example of what can happen’?
BwaHahAHAHAHAHAHAAAAA!!!!!!
Yup, because unless something has changed, there are very limited cures for viruses, and those that can be cured, are cured mostly through vaccination, ergo, the body is infected with a dormant, or dead strain of the virus that you are trying to combat BEFORE you come in contact with the virus, therefore developing the necessary antigen for the virus. When a virus strain, such as this one it seems, mutates, it makes it very hard to produce a vaccine, as by the time you actually get around to making the vaccine, your virus is another one, and your body will not recognize it.
I agree that paliatory treatment has improved significantly since then, but be aware that modern medicine has been unable to combat little things like Herpes (also a virus) Aids (virus) Ebola (virus) flu (Virus, mutates frequently enough that you need to be vaccinated against it every year), Bird flu (virus)….
Viral medicine is very much in its infancy, and unless I am mistaken there are some very limited use antivirals are out there, without counting on the highly experimental stuff.
I personally will take some minor precautions, wash my hands, avoid congested places like the subway, or Public transportation, and have some food and water in my house. cheap hedge against something like this IMHO.
There is little to prevent viral diseases, but with regular flu most deaths are from secondary infections which are largely bacterial. In pandemic flu, in which many deaths are the result of an overly active reaction of the immune system, the lack of treatments for viral diseases is a huge problem.
Just because people didn’t have a germ theory of disease didn’t mean they didn’t know you could catch it from blankets, other people, etc. They may not have known about the effectiveness of hand washing and keeping your hands away from your eyes, nose and mouth.
History is complicated. And it may not repeat, but it often rhymes.
“And it may not repeat, but it often rhymes.”
I object to nothing you said, and I agree with the precautionary principle (take measures in response to a new, unknown flu strain to guard against the risk that it is the next pandemic strain until certain it is not), but it is far too early to jump to any conclusions that we are at the leading edge of a repeat of the 1918 epidemic. The facts that (1) we are not currently in a world war, with the attendant mixing of blood on the battlefield and return of the wounded to home countries around the globe, and (2) that public health measures are already underway to contain the spread of the outbreak both greatly reduce the chances that this epidemic will blow up into an uncontained pandemic.
The financial outlook is much less promising, IMHO.
A few years ago the ebola virus was destined to kill us all.
Not to mention SARS…
and Legionnaire’s disease, for those who remember back that far
Man I feel old. I remember that one.
And it’s amazing how quickly Reagan and congress appropriated money to find the cause of it! Compared to several years for AIDS research and funding, which affected many more people….
“A few years ago the ebola virus was destined to kill us all.”
Hey Combo, I don’t mean to pry into your personal life, but I’ve been reflecting a lot on fatherhood lately… do you have children?
I’d imagine you’re the kind of rock entire clans can lean on any time…
I’m more of a pebble than a rock.
I have two grown daughters, both doing very well in their lives, and five grandchildren, also doing well.
“Home” has been described as “it’s the place that when you go there thay have to take you in”. One of my life goals is to provide to my family a home of last resort - and this economy may end up giving this goal a test.
“…I’ve been reflecting a lot on fatherhood lately…”
If you’ve bothered to reflect on fatherhood at all then you’ll probably become a good father. I wish you happiness.
“One of my life goals is to provide to my family a home of last resort”
Combo - ditto that. Seems doubtful that we are in the majority, though, whether by choice or ability.
BORING. The SARS outbreak in 2003 was far more dramatic — e.g. people with hacking coughs getting on airplanes from Hong Kong to San Francisco which had to be quarantined when they landed in the US.
The New York Times
Fighting Deadly Flu, Mexico Shuts Schools
Adriana Zehbrauskas for The New York Times
By MARC LACEY and DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.
Published: April 24, 2009
MEXICO CITY — Mexican officials, scrambling to control a swine flu outbreak that has killed as many as 61 people and infected possibly hundreds more in recent weeks, closed museums and shuttered schools for millions of students in and around the capital on Friday, and urged people with flu symptoms to stay home from work.
“We’re dealing with a new flu virus that constitutes a respiratory epidemic that so far is controllable,” Mexico’s health minister, José Ángel Córdova, told reporters after huddling with President Felipe Calderón and other top officials on Thursday night to come up with an action plan. He said the virus had mutated from pigs and had at some point been transmitted to humans.
Japan has had very good success preventing large outbreaks of regular flu by vaccinating children. They are a very large part of how viral diseases spread. Keeping the kids away from each other is probably a good alternative if you don’t have a vaccine available (and it wouldn’t do much good since it take two months to build up full immunity.
Please note that this is only a method for preventing a disease that spreads easily from person to person from going pandemic (millions of cases world wide very quickly). You can still get a very nasty outbreak with a nimble virus.
All that being said, I’m going to be sure to hydrate and hand wash more than usual since I have to go to Texas this week on business. I would really rather not get the flu. Nasty disease. May is much too nice a month to get messed up with flu.
If the reports are right this was a 6% mortality rate which beats the spanish flu at 5%. Only time will tell if this is a pandemic.
Other factors equal, a higher mortality rate can reduce the propagation of an epidemic, as it is hard for the dead and buried to transmit disease (anthrax excepted).
For those that have never been to Mexico City, the sewers empty directly into the rivers. There are 5-10 million people that live on the hills and mountains surrounding the city in cardboard/plywood/etc shacks with no clean water.
The rivers are emptied out as irrigation water for farms. Produce that no doubt makes it way to the US.
Its only a matter of time.
I’ve been there on business and know all too well. 25 million people confined to a valley in the middle of a desert.
Just to give you an idea of how bad the air quality is in Mex City. The airport is roughly an hour from business district. On the ride to my hotel, I began feeling nauseated after 20 minutes. From the backseat I looked into the rearview mirror at myself…… my face was blue….. And I mean blue as in pale sky blue. I wasn’t seeing things as I asked the driver WTF was happening. He said “you’ll adjust”.
The street crime is unimaginable in old Mex City. I had an armed escort assigned by the bank for my work there and he would lock and unlock windows and doors depending on where we were as the oppressed class living on the street would come through an open window or door to retrieve whatever this gringo might be displaying at the moment.
25 million people confined to a valley in the middle of a desert.
I’ve been to Mexico City several times, too, and health officials there are being prudent in my estimation. The size and scale of the shantytowns that sprout at the city’s margins are mind-boggling. The sanitation in such areas is abysmal, and a serious epidemiological problem could spread like wildfire. That said, I agree that there’s no reason for hysteria.
From your above descriptions of the sanitation situation, it is amazing Mexico City does not regularly have major cholera outbreaks.
From your above descriptions of the sanitation situation, it is amazing Mexico City does not regularly have major cholera outbreaks.
Well, I’m always purely amazed that things aren’t as bad as they could be. Given how eager germs and entropy generally are, and given how ignorant and inattentive humans generally are.
About 100 people a day die on the US’s roads.
(table till 2007):
http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx
This is a 747 going down every 3 days. Quite scandalous when one thinks about it. I guess people avoid thinking about it because most of us have to do it. I do look forward to (mostly) autonomous cars.
Fascinating and depressing how nearly constant those #’s are going back to 1994. That’s like 9 Iraq wars every year. Does anyone know what % of these fatalities were on the Interstates vs. State roads vs. local roads? This stuff is never mentioned when they talk about how we need all these funds for infrastructure and how highways bind us together as a nation.
The percentages are highest within 10 miles of home. That means local streets.
I do understand that interstates are safer *per mile driven* than local roads. But the point is, most of those miles *wouldn’t* be driven if the interstates didn’t exist. People would live closer to work, buy more local products, etc. My concern is total numbers of deaths and how they are affected by the presence of the highways.
“The percentages are highest within 10 miles of home. That means local streets.”
What percentages — the percentages of miles driven, the percentage of fatal accidents, or both? One cannot draw any conclusions about the risk without taking exposure into consideration.
Total number of all fatal accidents are highest near home.
You can google the exact stats. But the majority of fatal auto accidents occur within 10 miles of the deceased’s home and are usually caused by excessive speed and failure to observes rules, mostly failure of someone, either the deceased or the perp to yield right-of-way followed next by just plain inattention.
Scary ain’t it?
“Scary ain’t it?”
My point is apparently not getting across, but the majority of driving also occurs within 10 miles of home, as every trip out of the garage and back originates there. So it should be no shocker to learn this is also where the majority of fatal accidents occur, should it?
“I do look forward to (mostly) autonomous cars.”
Is there something more pleasant about dying in a car crash with a bot for the chauffeur?
My green suggestion: Ban the automobile, and only allow commuting by bicycle with proper safety helmet, body padding, etc to make sure nobody ever dies on the road.
“I’d rather die quietly in my sleep, like my grandfather. Not screaming in terror, like the passengers in his car.”
I think the benefit of autonomous cars will be that they never get distracted - they are ever vigilant; they can flawlessly execute emergency maneuvers; and they will limit roadway pissing contests.
The basic technology exists - google DARPA Urban Challenge - and we’re seeing strong driver assistance programs (including things like radar-based cruise control) in the high end vehicles such as Mercedes and Lexus.
IMHO, the technology can’t get here soon enough. Driving seems so innocuous, but the numbers speak for themselves.
Good information helps to quell the hysteria–as this blog– and your own excellent data– demonstrate.
Tamiflu is NOT effective against N1H1 and should not be considered palliative. The virus may not yet be resistent to Zonamivir (Relenza) however.
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/news/mar0209osel.html
Like the rest of us, I hope that I don’t catch this or any other flu virus. But what if we do catch it? In my own experience, I have found that Maker’s Mark on ice, with some honey on the side, makes me feel much, much better. And after a while I discovered that the honey is optional. In fact, I have been out of honey the last several times and the remedy worked just about as well, so don’t sweat that part of the compound. This is a home remedy, so don’t just take it from me - ask an expert.
Pork. The other white meat.
OMG i had pork sausages last night and i am sweattin to the oldies…..
Richard Simmons say you can sweat all your toxins out into thin air……
can’t hurt
You’ve just made me realize that although my symptoms do not at all resemble that of the flu, I’ve had something fairly mysterious for about a month. I thought it was diabetes but went to a Doc in the Box who took one drop of blood and said, “Not even close!” Will see a real doc next week, must remind self to have him reassure me it’s not SF.
My whole family had flu shots last fall, and four of us came down with a mysterious ailment last month, including flu-like symptoms and fevers in the 100-103 degree F temperature range, and kept each of us ill for several days.
Three of the four of us took time off (I had to go to work), none of us visited a medical professional, and we all lived to tell about it. Did we have the swine flu? I guess we will never know.
LOL
I caught a cold in early March and the coughing fits lasted for a month. Then a week ago I cought another cold, which for me always starts with a sore throat. I rarely take medication for colds, but this time I’m taking some. Still have occasional coughing but it does not prevent me from running and the stationary bike.
I’m hearing about coughs and sneezes as symptomatic of the flu. You can find out for sure if you go to Web MD and see if it’s a cold or flu. If you have fever with the sneezes or coughing it’s probably the flu.
Yes, working up a sweat gets rid of the toxins.
Lender-
Pollens. Really whacky ones this year. And not the sneezy/itchy ones either. All sorts of low-energy, achy symptom-thingies abound. Take long steamy showers and get a good humidifier. May will be here soon. I bet you’ll feel a lot better.
This virus, like the pandemic of 1918, seems to prefer healthy young males with good immune systems–which go into hyper-reactive mode and overwhelm the lungs with pulmonary edema. The host kill itself in short order, dumb virus. Those of us with a few miles on us are at much lower risk. Statistically.
Be well, okay?
must remind self to have him reassure me it’s not SF.
For a moment there I thought you were dissing San Francisco.
re sweating
A few months ago, someone posted a (Finnish? Latvian?) cure for a cold or flu that involved soaking peppercorns in vodka, drinking the laced vodka, taking a very hot bath, then getting a good long sleep.
I copied it, but have lost it unfortunately.
Going long vodka and long sleep = short disease.
I’m THERE, dude!
Hip - guess you meant we should strain the vodka before drinking. Nearly choked on those little buggers. At least I used fresh telicherry.
“Pork. The other white meat. ”
Speaking of Pork, HD Hogs meet the Repo Man
Many Harley returns
Auction services, tent sales market repossessed bikes
Run off the road in a bad economy, scores of Harley-Davidson motorcycles are being sold through auctions and occasional tent sales.
Many of the bikes are from Harley-Davidson Financial Services, the motorcycle company’s consumer lending arm. It uses multiple auction services to resell motorcycles after the owners fall behind on payments and are forced to turn over the keys.
Several million dollars worth of repossessed Harleys are coming from Navigator Remarketing Group. It’s having a tent sale Thursday in Indianapolis to sell about 120 motorcycles at near-wholesale prices.
Jingle mail…It’s a sign of the times Bad Boyz, turn in your toys .
Ooops ….here’s the Harley Repo link..need more(gasp!) cofffe..now !!
http://www.jsonline.com/business/43699382.html
UH OH Vendor Financing….talk about a warning sign Xerox did that 10 years ago to pump up sales and BOOM Crash from $60 to $4
——————————————-
Many of the bikes are from Harley-Davidson Financial Services, the motorcycle company’s consumer lending arm
“…at near-wholesale prices.”
Ding, ding, ding - the clue-meter hits 100. Even a NEW bike should sell At or BELOW wholesale prices. The hint of “near-wholesale” for previously-titled bikes is, to me, a huge red flag that the reserve prices are going to be way too high for this market. Suckers always welcome, of course…
“Th-th-th-that’s all folks!”
Did anyone catch SNL last night? It opened with Will Forte as Timothy Geithner manning a hotline taking suggestions to handle the economy. The Nigerian prince who called in was a hoot.
“Did anyone catch SNL last night?”
Being a dad now means going to bed at 8:30ish… I’m lucky to make to the end of The Office.
Get a TiVo!
Hulu, people, hulu…
http://www.hulu.com/watch/61235/saturday-night-live-geithner-cold-open
(warning: 30 second commercial preceeds clip)
Kim - thanks for that link. Never tried Hulu before - the picture’s resolution was outstanding, compared to what I’ve seen on YouTube. If you know, should I assume that they’re direct competitors and that the probability of finding a particular clip on both sites is slim?
Nope-don’t have tv
What would the social and economic effects of a pandemic be in the U.S.? The world?
An ancestor told me that in Akron Ohio the Spanish Flu hit young men
very hard, and the epidemic lasted through the cold months of 1918-
1919. He related that the flu was a blessing to his family; his mom
got a high paying job in a dairy and he and his dad got great gigs in
the rubber factories, all replacing flu victims.
Some historians believe that the epidemic helped keep the U.S. out of severe
post-war recession: The estates of the dead freed capital for
investment; the sudden removal by death’s cold hand of 400,000 or so
working age women and men kept unemployment down for the doughboys
returning from “The War To End All Wars”.
“What would the social and economic effects of a pandemic be in the U.S.?”
It would be a boomer wet dream. All of the working 25-45 year olds keel over and die… they can keep their SUVs, Applebee’s and continue off-shoring those middle-income jobs with the annoying demands for things like health care.
The whole world would be like Florida, a bunch of crabby grey-hairs bitching to 19 years olds who can’t properly calculate sales tax.
“The whole world would be like Florida, a bunch of crabby grey-hairs bitching to 19 years olds who can’t properly calculate sales tax.”
You mean like that 81 year old guy up in Shady Hills who offed his 29 year old neighbor?
http://suncoastpasco.tbo.com/content/2009/apr/25/251908/81-year-old-suspected-spring-hill-neighbors-shooti/
Palmy, last weekend I had a bunch of friends down… I explained to the mouthiest two that old people down here can be just as dangerous as any thug or drunk redneck. An 84 year old committed murder/suicide in my hood this week.
But yes, that is how I think the world will be if the swine flu is pandemic.
It would be a boomer wet dream. All of the working 25-45 year olds keel over and die…
Ah young man, another generational warfare comment. Many of us “geezers” are still strong and healthy and keep focused on work. My 54 year old sister moved 3,000 miles to the east coast to get a good paying job after interviewing all over the place. She is also an avid cyclist and can out-bike many younger men.
Many “whipper snappers” don’t have that type of gumption.
“Many “whipper snappers” don’t have that type of gumption.”
Lol, generalizing is fun, isn’t it?
Your generation paves paradise, ransoms housing, creates innovative financial instruments, sells out everyone’s pensions, and all you’ve got is, “my sister can ride a bike.”
Save your cash. I plan on charging top dollar to swap out your catheter.
“Save your cash. I plan on charging top dollar to swap out your catheter.”
ROTFLMAO!!!!!
Don’t forget Muggy your kids will be looking at you the same way you look at the baby boomers. Be careful what you wish for.
“Don’t forget Muggy your kids will be looking at you the same way you look at the baby boomers. Be careful what you wish for.”
No they won’t. I will age gracefully and quietly like my gramps, waking at 4am to drink straight whiskey, wearing flannel shirts and shooting double barrel shotguns at cigars tossed on frozen ponds. Nap time will be after a turkey sandwich around 10:30 a.m. It will always be cold in my house, and all of my crappy artwork depicting log cabins will be dusty and faded.
I will not be “re-inventing” retirement and “breaking all the rules.”
Muggy…Were you a abused child ?
“It would be a boomer wet dream. All of the working 25-45 year olds keel over”
Ya think I worked thirty years to raise four of them so that I can keep my toys? BTW, if things were to get ugly, they’d all four anchor here, and it wouldn’t be to protect the old man.
That parenting thing, I hope it takes deeper root for you.
I tend to get trolly on boomers. I don’ really hate ‘em, but you gotta admit a little truth to me poking at their entitlement.
I don’t fight the generalizations of X’ers… they’re pretty much spot on.
My sincere apologies
You are hereby sentenced to watch the entire John Wayne film “The Cowboys”.
HAHA!
You are hereby sentenced to watch the entire John Wayne film “The Cowboys”.
But I was gonna do that anyway.
Toronto’s more recent experience with SARS might offer a better comparison, at the the moment at least. Stores and restaurants around here are only now getting their spring bump, and if something kept people in their homes right now - the effects could likely deliver the death blow to many businesses.
I was in Montreal shortly after the SARS outbreak. I ate in a restaurant in China Town, and I think I was the only English speaking patron in the entire place. More generally, the pale faces seemed to be avoiding China Town like the plague. Mass hysterias are interesting to witness!
Kids were selling 3M dust masks for $5 CAD on the roads leading to Vancouver airport. HBBers with kids might want to tip their kids off to this - easier than lemonade - just don’t buy too many unless you also have some Chinese drywall to remove.
John - I wonder if Chinese drywall kills the swine flu virus? could be a win-win in the making. Wanna live? Buy this crappy South Florida house and don’t forget to inhale deeply!
Well in that case I will avoid Taco Bell.
The pandemic effectively brought an end to TWTEAW. Overcrowded military barracks and the close quarters of the trains transporting them for deployment were the perfect breeding and dispersal mechanisms.
My Grandmother told of losing her four young brothers all within two weeks of each other.
A fascinating read about this:
Flu: The Story of the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 and the Search for the Virus That Caused It. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
Also, The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague in History by John Barry published by Penguin.
Polly, I read this and it was a grim and detailed account. To the degree that it articulated the arcana of biomedical research, it was also correct. Given the gold star by daughter, a grad student in Molecular Biology.
One of the best non-fiction accounts I’ve read in terms of research.
My old neighbor on the farm, Earl McGill, told me they piled the bodies on wagons like cordwood.
That’s as much as I wanted to know.
A retired draft beer buddy of mine just told me yesterday that he is picking up his marbles, pulling up stakes and moving to Florida…Has had it with the taxes and fees in Cali and is worried about how much more is coming…
I commented yesterday that it really doesn’t seem to be all that bad here in Florida. Work can be found if you want it and look for it, although it may not be the sort of work you want and the pay might be pretty crappy. But as housing prices descend, so does the cost of living and I look forward to Florida returning to being a low cost state. Of course, governments in Florida don’t like being deprived of revenue and are desperately seeking ways to boost it without doing what’s really needed, like ending various tax breaks and exemptions. Also I sneer at the whining coming from the higher education system “We’ve cut to the bone!!!” BS. Sean Snaith is still on the payroll.
Husband is slightly interested in moving back to Florida. I’m in the wait and see mode.
I decided to hunker down as a renter and wait out the bubble in Florida. Despite its many drawbacks, I love the state. I’ve heard of many a person who left because of the weather, the bugs, the thugs, the retirees, blah, blah, blah. But many realize the grass isn’t necessarily greener elsewhere. Any place pretty much is what you make of it.
Palmy, I think that Az has reached the same point of affordable housing prices. When I read the AZ Republic article several weeks ago that stated that the number of house sales in the greater Phoenix area hit an all time high in 2/09 I was taken by surprise and have been paying attention to the numbers ever since. NODs and foreclosures are still at all time highs but for some unknown reason people are buying houses. I say unknown reason but I think price has a lot to do with it.
Just as I did as the number of listings were increasing three years ago, I started a daily log of ZipRealty total listings for the Phoenix area for the last couple of weeks and here are the results:
4/18 49230
4/20 49184
4/21 48883
4/22 48631
4/23 48363
4/24 48087
4/25 47803
4/26 47648
When I read the Az Republic article about the 2/08 sales record I checked Zip and IIRC had around 52500 in total listings. Have we turned a corner here in Az or is this a dead cat bounce? Az lead the way down and maybe is the first to begin to turn. Or maybe not.
“people are buying houses”
Well, it can’t get any worse, can it? That’s what my daughter’s inlaws are pumping.
If the economy is based on building houses, what happens when the building stops?
“…what happens when the building stops?”
It gets worse.
Hi AZ Retired - I remember well your tracking!
Do you account sales by using Maricopa county to get those numbers or do you use a certain grouping of zips?
Your numbers certainly show a downward inventory trend, but then again, it’s Spring. I remember picking apart some past housing bubbles and they all saw favorable Spring bounces, even very early in their declines. As you say, we shall see…
Instead of moving out of Cali, he should invest in AAA municipal bonds and thumb his nose at the tax collectors.
Also, I would never retire from drinking draft beer. It’s a very good job to have!
You still have to pay tax on income, and sales, no, BiLA? All the muni bonds do is get you out of paying state income tax on the interest, correct?
No. They are federal tax free as well as state tax free for the most part. You just have to be sure you know what you are buying.
Back in the 1970s my Dad new a wealthy old man who was earning $30,000 per month on California municipal bonds at that time. They were yielding perhaps 10%, which means they were probably BBB or BB. The junkier the bonds the higher the risk. The higher the risk the higher the yield.
As for sales taxes, yes, whatever you buy in California is subject to sales tax. it’s not too much higher than Arizona’s.
If you are averse to it then you gotta give up California. To me, California is too good to give up. I could perhaps live in the small northern coast town of Westport and drive up to Oregon to do bulk shopping eventually - no sales tax.
If you work in Vancouver, Washington and shop across the river in Oregon, you take advantage of no state income tax and then you buy with no sales taxes. Same thing if you work in Wyoming and shop in Montana.
On top of all that, you could have a federal tax free municipal bond fund such as VMLTX, which is over 80% AAA and AA, low yield but low risk, and since you’d be in a state with no income tax, the “measly” 2.5% yield won’t be taxed as income at all. Best yet, you would take advantage of Vanguard’s low expense ratio.
Tax free bonds do nothing to shelter his pension and social security…He has a excellent pension with a fortune 10 company…Plus, as you well know Bill, its not just the state income tax..Its the combination of all the RE tax, sales tax & fees…Add it all up and he is likely in the 60%+ range…
What makes him think taxes and fees won’t follow him to Florida?
“Making a fair offer is vital. Despite the recession, low-ball offers are being rejected by sellers.”
http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20090426/BUSINESS/904260333/-1/housing
You know, I started the bubble in NYC, and ended it Florida… by the time I get back to Rochester I am really going to be worn out from crap like this. And yes, I still have friends buying like crazy up there.
It’s a Pavlovian response. The dog is trained to drool at the bell in expectation of food. The human is trained to buy real estate because he’s made money in the past with the activity.
It’ll take some time and some negative reinforcement before the habit is broken.
“It’ll take some time and some negative reinforcement before the habit is broken.”
This is true, and one fact that we often gloss over here is that, for several years, J6P did have evidence in their face in support of buying. Hell, 20% was in the bag.
That’s what Gary told us, right!
“It’s a Pavlovian response. The dog is trained to drool at the bell in expectation of food. The human is trained to buy real estate because he’s made money in the past with the activity.”
I lived through the 1990’s S cal R/E downturn and it was brutal. In comparison, it seems there is far more optimism that the r/e downturn is going to be relatively short-lived. We are far more connected today than we were in 90s and speed of everything, including perception of a bubble recovery has accerlated. We have become a society that simply will not accept defeat or any length of downward anything it seems. I watch people texting while they drive, risking their and others lives, all for the sake of maintaining the “Now High”. How will the Now generation deal with what is going to be a long, unrelenting, slow down? I try to compare it to other things perceived as a no win drag that won’t go away, like the Iraq War. People tend to just block it from relevance and move to something else that will give instant answers and gratification. Nobody really talks about Iraq anymore.
Early discussion on the HBB predicted that after this bubble has played out, nobody will ever want to see another piece of R/E as long as they live. Even though the sales today’s are mostly lower priced foreclosures, seems we have a long way to go to meet that prediction.
Muggy - I don’t understand why there is any excitement at all about the $8K new-buyer tax credit unless the house in question costs well less than $100K. And then, who is making enough to get the full tax credit and also wants to buy a house, for their principal residence, that costs less than $100K?
Well, in fairness, one of the couples featured in that article was looking at 60k houses in the city. Why not, if they plan on staying for a while.
But can they get the full benefit of the $8K? I’ll bet not enough of these folks have done the math. Or maybe they don’t care, prices being what they are.
An interesting housing inventory observation-
While persuing OSG/Hardtack, I study the single family by price range barchart(the 3rd barchart from the top on the right side of page). It’s a 2 year measurement of housing inventory changes by price. In ever single MSA and/or state, I observed a dramatic increase in inventory on the lower end, say $50k-250k and a substantial decline in inventory of 250k-500. It is data like this that points to ever falling prices of formerly high dollar shacks, which compresses the entire price structure below.
I say build more McMillionare shacks…. Do you hear me now Bob Toll?
http://hardtack.osgcorp.com/osg-hardtack/
Bob Toll would turn up his nose at anything that didn’t have at least two “Princess suites” and a Master Bath that is larger than the kitchen.
Some of these dang McShacks are so big that the master suite has an “a.m. kitchen” for owners who would die of coffee deprivation before making it to the real kitchen.
Princess suite? Does BobHole don a pink tutu and ballet slippers?
Princess suite….. we’ve lost our minds.
A princess suite is a bedroom/bath combination. Each little princess gets her own. I remember seeing them on Toll’s floor plans. (I think it was Toll.)
I am so confused on this new home sales business. I cannot recall any Census reports, ever, that reported new home sales at less than a 500,000 annual rate, so how could less than 200,000 of them have sold in 2008?
I am hoping a capable accountant can help clear up this mystery for me.
New-home sales down 37 percent
Nation’s builders had a rough 2008
By Roger Showley
STAFF WRITER
2:00 a.m. April 26, 2009
To no one’s surprise, the nation’s builders sold fewer homes in 2008 than the year before, according to Builder magazine. The total for the year was 132,994, 37 percent less than in 2007.
“The depressed sales environment forced the top 10 builders to play some serious defense,” the magazine said in its current issue. “They retreated from marginal markets; sold off land at discounts; continued personnel reductions; cut expenses; and struggled to regain profitability.
Builder’s top 10 with their 2008 closed sales and percentage change from 2007 are:
- D.R. Horton, 23,915, down 37 percent
- Pulte Homes, 21,022, down 24 percent
- Centex Corp., 18,241, down 41 percent
- Lennar Corp., 15,735, down 53 percent
- KB Home, 12,438, down 48 percent
- Hovnanian Enterprises, 11,281, down 25 percent
- NVR, 10,741, down 21 percent
- Ryland Group, 7,352, down 29 percent
- Beazer Homes USA, 6,642, down 42 percent
- Meritage Homes Corp., 5,627, down 51 percent.
Noteworthy omission: Toll Brothers…
Two of the companies, D.R. Horton and Lennar Homes, also appear on a list of top builders in San Diego County.
In San Diego County, MarketPointe Realty Advisors, which counts a home sold when the buyers sign a contract, not when they close escrow, listed the top 10 with sales counts and change from 2007 as follows:
- Shea Homes, 206, down 41 percent
- Lennar Homes, 177, down 30 percent
- Pardee Homes, 167, down 42 percent
- Standard Pacific, 150, down 49 percent
- William Lyon Homes, 117, down 54 percent
- KB Home, 101, down 13 percent
- Brookfield Homes, 89, up 1.1 percent
- Davidson Communities, 78 (not on 2007 list)
- Siverstone Communities, 77, down 53 percent (all condo conversions)
- D.R. Horton, 73, down 41 percent.
Important arithmetic omitted from the article (based on the figures above; not sure if they are comprehensive):
Total 2008 new home sales in San Diego (includes repartments) =
206+177+167+150+117+101+89+78+77+73 = 1,235
San Diego’s 2008 share of all US new home sales =
1,235/132,994*100 = 0.9%
I am not sure how many new homes sell in San Diego during “normal” years, but would it be accurate to say that with only 1,235 sales in 2008, the building industry was virtually shut down? (That was my impression based on casual observation of local new home construction activity, of which there was a great deal back in 2005-2007.)
the building industry was virtually shut down?
I had lunch with a good friend the other day who was a very successful small home builder here for 20+ years…He has not built anything for over a year and lost a lot of money over the past two years…He is now looking to go into another business (Ins. maybe) just to be able to provide for his family…We both agreed that this housing bubble has possibly irreversibly ruined the small builder business…The big builders have moved down the food chain to smaller projects forcing the medium guys even farther down thereby forcing the small guy out of business…
“The big builders have moved down the food chain to smaller projects forcing the medium guys even farther down thereby forcing the small guy out of business…”
Judging from the fact that their stock prices have not sunk to penny stock levels (with a couple of exceptions, perhaps), I have to suspect they get some kind of special plunge protection to make sure they can always raise more dough by selling stock shares, if needed.
SCDave - I hate to see the small guys go under. I suppose it is a metaphor for my generation and its values going under.
US population est. 303 million, SD county population est. 2.974 million, therefore SD county is 0.98% of US population. If SD county has 0.9% of new home sales in the US that’s actually in line with the population.
So you are saying the US housing market pretty much svcks all over then?
I’m not sure what I’m saying, other than that the SD area isn’t really out of line with US averages. I’d guess SD is in much better shape than Detroit, FL, Lost Wages, et al.
Related Builder Magazine story from earlier this year:
* From: BUILDER 2009
* Posted on: February 24, 2009 9:46:00 AM
Down for the Count: The Weakest Housing Markets for 2009
Hit hardest by the downturn, these markets may be among the last to recover.
By: Boyce Thompson
… here are the bottom 15 (w/2008 total buliding permits).
61. San Francisco, Calif: 11,979
62. Lakeland, Fla.: 3,240
63. Sacramento, Calif.: 5,488
64. Cleveland, Ohio: 3,361
65. Miami, Fla.: 7,846
66. Reno, Nev.: 1,929
67. Melbourne, Fla.: 1,599
68. Fresno, Calif.: 2,208
69. Ft. Lauderdale, Fla.: 2,172
70. Naples, Fla.: 951
71. Daytona Beach, Fla.: 1,316
72. West Palm Beach, Fla.: 2,182
73. Port St. Lucie, Fla.: 1,249
74. Stockton, Calif.: 838
75. Detroit, Mich.: 3,085
Interesting observation: Though San Diego did not rank among the list of 15 weakest markets for 2009, the total of 1,235 homes actually sold in 2008 would seem to suggest that it might have qualified, as this is fewer than the number of 2008 permits for all but a couple of the homes on the above list.
There were more than 3k houses built in Detroit? Amazing…
…
homesmarkets on the above list.Building industry definition of “healthy market”: More permits = healthier.
- Never mind how many homes are actually selling.
- Never mind whether there will be any new customers to sell homes to for the next decade following this year.
Are the economists who advise this industry terminally stupid?
If you insist on asking your own questions and answering them then what can we add?
Please pile on if you agree
If you insist on asking your own questions and answering them then what can we add?
Anecdotes about our favorite kitchen appliances?
We do that anyway.
Yeah I know. Very peculiar to think that few building permits are unhealthy. They should want inventory to be cleared out.
My hopes are that lots of communities will use bulldozers to get rid of empty houses and return the foundations back to the environment.
My hopes are that lots of communities will use bulldozers to get rid of empty houses and return the foundations back to the environment.
But as you pointed out the other day, Bill, when we were all talking about nature reclaiming Detroit–let me again say good posts, ET and edgy, and others–a lot of that ‘environment’ is likely tainted with various toxic crap, dumped oil and stuff.
Still, bring on the bulldozers anyhow, I say. Couldn’t hurt.
Oh yeah thanks for reminding me. Well you see, the toxic mortgage above ground will be gone - bulldozed away, leaving only the toxic stuff underground.
More impromptu statistical entertainment:
Number of US households in 2008 (US Census Department) = 116,783,000
Number of new homes sold in 2008 = 132,994
Percentage of US households that bought new homes in 2008 was less than
132,994/116,783,000*100 = 0.113881301 percent, or one new home sold per every 878 US households.
I say less than because we have to assume that at least a few of these new homes were sold to savvy investors trying to time the market bottom
Another piece of the puzzle: Contrast the 132,994 reported sold for 2008 with the Census Bureau’s report on housing starts (found this on the NAHB web site):
Table 1 Housing Starts, U.S. and Regions
1991 1,014
1992 1,200
1993 1,288
1994 1,457
1995 1,354
1996 1,477
1997 1,474
1998 1,617
1999 1,641
2000 1,569
2001 1,603
2002 1,705
2003 1,848
2004 1,956
2005 2,068
2006 1,801
2007 1,355
2008 906
All data are in thousands of units.
Housing start = The start of construction of a privately-owned housing unit is when excavation begins for the footings or foundation of a building intended primarily as a housekeeping residential structure and designed for nontransient occupancy. All housing in a multifamily building is defined as being started when excavation for the building has begun.
With 906,000 homes started in 2008 and only 132,994 reported sold, it appears there is a bit of a data gap, to the tune of roughly 773,000 homes that were started but never finished, or that otherwise live in the purgatory of shadow inventory. What gives?
Notice that housing starts more-or-less steadily increased from 1991 through 2005, more than doubling over the period, then fell off by more than 50 percent in the subsequent three years up until 2008 to the lowest level over the period in the data. Most amazing is the SD Union-Tribune report which suggests home sales may have only been a small fraction of the number of housing starts for 2008.
If anyone can shed insights to help reconcile the data I have presented here, I would be most interested
I am particularly interested in hearing from anyone who can point out the evidence of green shoots in this data, as I am about to strain my eyes trying to see them.
Perhaps those who claim to see these green shoots are using magnifying glasses and or microscopes?
“…are using magnifying glasses and or microscopes?”
You remind me of some ribald humor I recall from Junior High School daze…
There was also something about a pair of tweezers in the old Junior High School insult…
LMAO!! What a flashback, I had forgotten about the tweezer joke!
I was more picturing Johnny Depp in the Sleepy hollow movie with this handmade contraption he put on his head looking for evidence on a decapitated body. It had all kinds of magnifying objects on it.
Perhaps those who claim to see these green shoots are using magnifying glasses and or microscopes?
Or LSD
P Bear, I cannot reconcile these numbers but suggest that over the years I had 2 houses built for us that may not have been recorded as a sale. We bought a lot, found our building plans, and hired a builder. A construction loan was used to make draws and at the completion we cleared the construction loan with cash and a mortgage. There was a building permit pulled in these examples but not sure the R/E numbers included this transaction as a sale. What do you think?
SFBAG…Blue Bellied Lizards ??
Yeah !!
We use to have contests on how many you could put to sleep before the first one woke up…A carefree and innocent time unlike today 
Yes and garter snakes, and frogs. Loved bringing them home. Mom was pretty cool about them. When Mom was a young one she would also hunt for them. Guess that’s where I got the gene.
Update: Seller turned down my offer (I offered $180,000). Gues he was “insulted” because he didn’t counter (fine with me, wasn’t going to counter back). Here’s the house (MLS # 5483986): http://www.weichert.com/23781161/?zip=19090&pg=6.
Yup, the market still sux.
Cute house.
In LA, a house like that would go for $500,000 to $600,000 in the right neighborhood.
Looks like a bargain from here.
No jobs = lower prices.
Surely you have heard by now that the economy is coming back by the end of this year?
It looks way too expensive to me.
In my neck of the woods (North Texas) that house would go for $50k.
Snug as a bug in a rug. Very nice pick eastcoaster. Good eye for architecture.
Anyways, it will be there for ever at that price so if you choose to entertain yourself at the expense of these delusional dopes, toss him 150k in the fall with the condition that if it’s not accepted, the following offer will be 10% lower.
Keep insulting them (or the bank which eventually inherits this home as REO) with your offer every three months or so and see what happens going forward…
Lot size says “50.” What does that mean? Half-acre? It doesn’t look like it from the pictures. I’m sorry, this looks like a $90K house. Why is it worth $180k? I’m not being snarky, I just don’t know what I’m missing.
Lot size is .14 acres. A whole lotta’ nothing land-wise.
And you’re not being snarky. It’s not even worth $180,000. I’d say $140,000. But I was giving my best offer in the current market, expecting to lose equity for some years to come. I was okay with that.
eastcoaster - thanks for the update.
BTW, have you ever owned a home that is losing equity? I have and I don’t think you would be as “OK” with it as you think. And then pile on top of that you bought it knowing you would likely lose. You may not feel very kindly toward this seller, but they’ve just saved you from a bad experience.
+1
Sorry you didn’t get the house, eastcoaster, but DKN is right, IMHO.
What’s the yard made out of? Paving stones? I guess it’d be low maintenance.
Grass is just brown in that photo. Taken in the winter.
I’m pretty bitter right now.
Grass is just brown in the photo. Wonder when it was taken. House has been on market for about 2.5 months, but I really think it’s a relist.
The listing says the agent is related to the seller. Any idea as to how they are related? Those words always say “run away” to me. My guess is that this house will sit, sit, sit, as the seller will trust his kool-ade drinking agent who still thinks 2006 prices are coming back by the end of the year.
eastcoaster,
Just my opinion, but I am glad for you that the offer was rejected. I sold a house three times that size over in Chester County ten years ago for $150K, pool, acre of ground, etc. Willow Grove is not immensely more desirable by comparison.
The declines have just started in the Philly burbs. Down 7.5% I read somewhere. It’s still near peak in what looks to be the Big Bust.
Good luck though, i know it’s hard to be patient for things that move so slowly. If prices are off 25% more next spring, you will be glad you were priced out today.
Did some looking around on ForeclosureRadar dot com the other day and was amazed at the increase in Multi Family Residences listed as in the process of foreclosure.
Investments gone south?
Owners tired of not collecting enough rent to cover expenses?
Additionally, rents listed on Craigslist have been decreasing steadily for the past few months.
Looks like the 10x rent rule was a good idea after all.
Okay, so this will probably be the last time (well, tomorrow likely will be) that I shill for this thing…
I’d like to ask for people to try out my Firefox extension for reading this site. It’s basically at version 1.0, but I can’t figure out how to get the upload to Mozilla.org to work.
The extension will (with screenshots):
* let you see how many new comments there are for a post (did you know people like PB were still posting in the 4/23 bits bucket as late as mid-day yesterday?) http://www.pbase.com/drumminj/image/111777515
* hilight new comments for you so you can easily identify them in the sea of 500+ comments you’ve seen before. http://www.pbase.com/drumminj/image/111777710
* provide a toolbar w/ a “next” button to help you jump to the next unread comment in the case that there are only a few new comments spread far apart (you can see this in the above-linked image as well).
Those who have been helping test this thing can comment on whether they find it useful. Personally I find it very helpful once the post has “aged” and there’s 5-10 new comments on a post with 100+. But that’s just me.
Email me if you’re interested. It’s easy to install: drumminj/yahoo.com
Thanks dude,
I will add this. Can we write one for Chrome?
It says ‘link appears broken’
Which link, waiting? Those are just links to images, not to the extension itself….I can’t host arbitary files on my photo host (pbase.com).
You’ll have to email me to get it.
I’m sure it can be ported to chrome, if they have a similar mechanism (can you do the equivalent of greasemonkey scripts?).
It’s really all just javascript with some CSS. Should be easy to port.
Shoot me an email and I’ll send you the package.
I’ve been using drumminj’s extension for a few days now, and have found it relatively unobtrusive (it appears as a small toolbar at the bottom of your active window) and quite useful.
It’s especially nice to have toward the end of the day, when posts can creep into the 400s and the sheer number of comments gets a little overwhelming. The way it displays the number of new comments in the permalink for each of Ben’s daily posts is also handy. (Note that if you clear your cookies regularly, that handy information is lost.)
Note that you can turn off the toolbar if you find it obtrusive. And yes, unfortunately I have to use cookies to store the data. Newer versions of web browsers (ie firefox 3.5 and beyond) have a mechanism for local storage for scripts, but obviously it’s not a standard/stable feature at this point).
I’m just working within the given limitations
too cool. this idea is a money maker, but you’d have to “apple-ize” it as those are the people willing to pay for apps like this… just hoping you can make a few bones for all your efforts. great job.
A small and maybe meaningless observation: over the last couple of years, have occasionally looked at the total number of listings in Park City, out of pure curiosity about what the huge number of new developments would do to the inventory.
The inventory stayed around 1500 throughout 2007, then went up 20 percent last year to around 1800 and hovered there. Today: 3100. The numbers include ‘fractional ownership units’ (many dozen listed right now), up to that “house” with 18 baths.
I would rather forage in the grocery store, but to each his or her own. I am still going to keep my dog on a short leash.
Live off the land — in the city
Wild greens, mushrooms, fruit and even fish and game can be harvested in America’s urban jungles. Dandelion salad, anyone? Or some batter-fried squirrel?
[Related content: savings, save money, groceries, food prices, Donna Freedman]
By Donna Freedman
MSN Money
Feeling squeezed at the supermarket? Maybe you should be looking for food in the parking lot, or in your neighbor’s yard.
We’re talking dandelions, feral mushrooms, gleaned fruit, local fish or even those wascally wabbits that overrun city greenbelts. Ingenuity plus a little sweat equity can put fresh, healthful food on the table and possibly provide other benefits as well: exercise, relaxation and a different way of looking at your neighborhood.
For example:
Chauncey Niziol fishes for bass and bluegills in downtown Chicago.
Steven Rinella traps squirrels and catches pigeons in Brooklyn, N.Y.
Jeff Yeager harvests shoots from bamboo that grows in his suburban Washington, D.C., yard.
Katy Kolker harvests tree fruit that otherwise would have rotted in Portland, Ore.
“Radical ecologist” Nance Klehm plucks salads out of city sidewalks and leads urban foraging walks around her home city of Chicago. A few clients are survivalists, she says, or foodies who are looking for “unusual tastes.” But most are simply “curious about the world around them.” Foraging is “about a connection and an interaction with an environment,” she says.
You can do both.
I have no problem plonking down my hard-earned dollars at Dean & Deluca but I also know how to pick out nettles in Central Park (read thread from yesterday.)
There are no contradictions here.
Maybe you have something, KFS Kentucky Fried Squirrel, would you like nettles with that?
I don’t understand why this is a novel concept to so many people. Who DOESN’T want to eat every single thing they see, or at least give it a taste?
My personal motto is: ‘How will I know, unless I try?’ and another is ‘Waste is bad.’
These are good mottos, and have served me wonderfully, metaphorically and literally.
So I think it’s terrific if more people get curious about and experiment with this sort of activity and learning, all the way up from the ever so exciting and novel wildman activity of actually eating a fresh bamboo shoot or picking fruit off a tree to the REAL wildman activity of shooting bunnies and squirrels in parks.
However.
One thing to think about is the possible contaminants on the food. I’ve seen many a beautiful patch of russulas or shaggy manes perched temptingly along the roadway but after a longing glance I pass them by. Mushrooms are incredibly good bio-filters and I don’t wanna be consuming the collected filth from oil, radiator fluid stuff and exhaust particulates leaking out of passing cars. Same situation with mushrooms growing on tended public building lawns. I don’t know what fertilizers, etc, have been spread on that lawn. So I get mine only from further in the forest.
City sidewalks don’t seem terribly healthful, either. And I SURE wouldn’t eat a city pigeon, let me be firm on that, although I’d eat a park bunny, if someone else did all the work.
That’s another thing; I’ve eaten squirrel my brothers’ve brought home, and by the time you’re done cleaning and skinning the sad little shot-up thing you coulda earned the money, in terms of time, to buy a greater amount of meat from the store. So you should think about your point, before shooting squirrels.
But these are nit-picky arguments from me. I very much approve of people eating their surroundings in healthful and delicious ways.
Mushrooms are incredibly good bio-filters and I don’t wanna be consuming the collected filth from oil, radiator fluid stuff and exhaust particulates leaking out of passing cars.
Many edible or partially edible plants (sunflowers and olive trees, for example) bioaccumulate heavy metals and some other toxins fairly efficiently, which isn’t too ideal for the top o’ the food chain (e.g., us).
Really efficient bioaccumulators (hyperaccumulators) such as alpine pennycress are sometimes used to help remediate contaminated soil or water. If I recall correctly, rafts of sunflowers with their roots dangling into the water were used to help cleanse some waterways in the Chernobyl fallout zone.
At any rate, I’m very pro-foraging, but I tend to stay away from flora and fauna in urban environments for the same reasons you mention.
A few clients are survivalists, she says, or foodies who are looking for “unusual tastes.”
Freshly harvested food tastes better, imo. I had strawberries yesterday that were picked yesterday. Fantastic.
When did “good” become “unusual”?
For example:
Chauncey Niziol fishes for bass and bluegills in downtown Chicago.
Steven Rinella traps squirrels and catches pigeons in Brooklyn, N.Y.
They aint talking fresh picked strawberries.
The same applies to meat. Freshly harvested tastes better (and not injected with sodium water, etc).
And around here, squirrel ain’t unusual.
The article was “Live off the land — in the city”
I have no problem with black berries, picked and ate them myself at my parent`s evergreen farm in Honesdale Pa. when I was a kid during summer vacations there. I am sure strawberries are also delicious when freshly picked. I enjoyed pheasant at one of the neighbors house in Pa. I thought the venison was a little too gamy tasting. When it comes to squirrel and pigeon from Brooklyn or bass caught in downtown Chicago I am going to opt out every time.
Chamomile, fireweed and dandelions grow wild in the sidewalks in Anchorage, but knowing the dogs, cats and snails get first crack at it kinda turns my stomach.
I can’t think of anything more exciting in life than a nice case of campylobacter or toxoplasmosis.
I know someone who eats squirrel. He only eats country squirrel because country squirrel eats good nuts and seeds while suburban/urban squirrel eats garbage. I’ll file that away for future reference.
I’ll pay through the nose for local butter. One day at the farmer’s market, the butter was so yellow that I asked if they had colored it with carrot juice (pioneers used to do that in winter). The vendor said, “No, but it rained a lot last week, so the cows got really good grass.”
Same happens with eggs when the hens are allowed to run free.
For the best eggs at the farmers’ market at the peak of the season, the yolk is almost red. It would freak almost anyone who didn’t know about it.
On that subject, fresh mayo is bright yellow (yolks + olive oil + salt + optional mustard or garlic.). I shudder to think what’s inside that white stuff that is commercial.
Heh..I LOVE micracle whip.
I have no idea what’s in it…probably hydrogenated something or other. Too bad its not natural, it sure is tasty with ham and cheese.
SNIFF. *upturned NYC nose*
*attempt at redemption*
I’m going on a diet (low carb) so today I cooked (its still in the oven) a pork loin stuffed with a stuffing of garlic, onion, rosemary and basil all cooked a bit in olive oil, then added shiitakes and spinach.
Wrapped the loin back up with the stuffing and topped with rosemary. Think it’ll turn out ok? It smells good.
It clearly well if it smells that good.
Lamb and rosemary are a classic combo. Heck, potatoes and rosemary are a classic combo!
There’s nothing like the smell of roasting rosemary wafting around the house to make you happy. Now, I want some now but it’s too hot here to roast stuff (freak unseasonal heat.)
On the roasting front, there are two crimes people make which you might want to avoid.
You need to adequately salt and pepper the surface. Then, you need to let it sit for a while (= 1-2 hours)
The salt draws the juices towards the surface and concentrates them (read: Harold McGee for an explanation - it’s basic osmosis.) The pepper is just seasoning and everyone underseasons.
Hit it! Hit it again! Now, hit one more time! Now repeat!
You can’t add the salt in “hindsight” — it’s just not the same.
I salted before but didnt let it sit long. What you describe is how I prepare my steaks, but I don’t let them sit salted that long…maybe 30 mins or so.
Also I suspect in this case I may not have salted enough. Actually, I use salt more than most of my American brethren (thank you Alton Brown) but in this case I think I may not have.
In my defense, I was trying to prepare enough food for most of the week (I work during the day and school at night so no time to cook during the week), got tired and realized after it was cooking I probably should have used more salt on that large of a piece of meat.
ok, one other thing, cover vs don’t cover.
I cooked it about 350 for a while. It was covered with a piece of aluminum foil so didn’t get golden. I took the foil off and it browned some but not as much as I would have liked. I’m wondering if I should have just cooked it uncovered the whole time…
I sympathize with the time constraints. We all have them.
It’s just that my Platonic ideal and reality clash all the time, and I have the perfectionist gene.
In your case, just do it before you go to work/school, and finish the job in the evening. As long as its refrigerated adequately, you’ll be more than fine.
PS :- Alton Brown is just someone who has memorized Harold McGee backwards and forwards. I suggest you just move to the master not the sell-out disciple.
golden or not golden.
Email me offline. You have my email.
But for any others: cba DOT fed DOT ihg AT gmail DOT com.
Golden = Maillard = necessary for taste.
Your intuition is spot-on! The trick is to turn intution into failsafe technique.
Where be me post? I tolt yer all that foraging mushrooms off’n roads and city lawns might not be such a good idea.
Anyway, Fastette! Fastette! Tell us about yer nettles!
I got back from the Procession of Species too late to go get stung by nettles myself, but I’m planning to do it today, unless I get flu and die. Maybe I can weakly crawl to the stove and manage a few bites first.
Where be me post? I tolt yer all that foraging mushrooms off’n roads and city lawns might not be such a good idea.
Yar, plants and fungi can uptake a lot of nasty substances in an urban environment, and it’s best to be wary.
I do like foraging when I’m away from the city, though. Didn’t have the chance to go morel hunting this season, but that’s always great fun.
Nosinglette! Are you really coming by Olympia this week?! Hooray! We must meet, so we can compare prettily painted toenails—you said you were going to paint yours, remember—and you can tell me the good advice your mommy gave you when you called her and let her criticize you unopposed, oh, it’ll be SCADS of fun!
My week will either be either much busier or less busier than normal depending on if the legislative session ends by tonight, but in either case let me know your schedule so I can plan around your travels, because lunch or dinner or whatever works would be fun. I’ll email you later today.
Too bad you weren’t already here yesterday for the Procession of Species, as I bet you’d enjoy seeing a large virus walking down the street to the sound of zithers and drums. I didn’t know what it was, I thought, ‘Did he only get the frame done but refused to be left out and went to the parade anyway?’ And then I realized the coiled feather boa was supposed to be the DNA or RNA helix and the little balls were protein tails. It was great. The dung-beetle pushing a large ball of cardboard and duct-tape dung along was super, and the anemones, too.
It was all great.
http://tinyurl.com/c9243d
I will definitely look for your email, Oly. I’ve always been curious about Olympia, having always thought of it as a suburb of Ft. Lewis populated by fancy-schmancy legislators. Maybe I should spend a bit of time poking around.
I am horrifically bummed about missing the Procession of Species, but I hope there will be some nice pictures. If they sell some nice Darwin fish, get one and I’ll reimburse you. Always wanted one for my car.
Hope to see you soon,
Nosing Leona
having always thought of it as a suburb of Ft. Lewis populated by fancy-schmancy legislators.
What?! You are SOOOOO freaking WRONG!
*gesticulates wildly in the air, hands blurring like scratched-up pink hummingbirds, unable to adequately convey the utter and entire wrongness of your thinkings, no matter how fast I move my hands *
See, the city of Lacey, the leprotic, be-stripmalled, subdivided chancre to the north of Olympia, that is the suburb of Ft. Lewis.
And the legislators go away after session, for which I heartily thank Sweet Baby Jeebus. Unfortunately, it’s not over yet, so they haven’t gone yet or even packed up to go, but since you evidently don’t want to see any we’ll be on the lookout for dark suits and bleary eyes. That way we can dodge them.
I always thought of Olympia as the home of Olympia beer.
Sadly, in 2003 Miller closed it down. Wikipedia says Ag Energy Resources Inc. of Benton, Illinois purchased the machinery from Olympia Brewing Co. to make ethanol for motor fuel use.
“…I bet you’d enjoy seeing a large virus walking down the street to the sound of zithers and drums.”
The truth truly IS stranger than fiction. I had to read this twice before I realized this was journalistic, not your ususal fantastic musings.
Damn, Oly. YOU ROCK!
Thanks, ahansen, I’m pretty fond of you, too.
Especially after watching the part 5 ‘American Visionaries’ flick yesterday. I recognized Ben, and then Bink, and then you came on and I shouted enthusiastically at the computer screen: ‘That’s ahansen! I know her! AND she wrestles bears, AND she wins when she does it, too!’
I watched it a couple times, I was so appreciative.
Shhhhh, Oly. Don’t tell anyone. I didn’t actually “wrestle” the little b-tard, I simply ranted one of my patented screeds at him until he gave up and went knauering back into the willows, shaking his head and bemoaning his bad judgment.
Hate to see what you would do to a bull.
ROTFLMAO!!!
AND she wins when she does it
That’s the impressive part. Any jackhole can get mauled and lay down to die.
Of course, we gotta give props to her partners in crime.
Hi all- been awhile as I have been swamped with review work on fraud cases here, and yes they are still at it.
My work revolves around 2005-2006 appraisal reports and they are nothing short of amazing once I receive them. I still have 2006-2009 to go. Oh say a million or so. There is a current backlog of 17,000 I hear.(reviews)
I am working for mortgage insurers and they are being hammered by FNMA and the like wanting to be reimbursed for all those toxic mortgages. Sorry Charley as you did not exercise due diligence in making the loan on bad data.
But, but, but…..you would not believe the frail attempts to discredit my reviews. Same market,same time data that refutes the value by as much as $150,000 on 1100 sf condo units. I have given up the deep breath technique and simply blast them with 6-7 more sales which back me up in the same complex in some cases.
I am beyond over it as you can imagine.
Speaking to affordability I was struck by some information as late as yesterday. A 1/1 bedroom condo in Daytona Beach overlooking the river, redecorated, and very nice as I saw it. ($29,000) 3 years ago the same unit sold for $248,900. Now is that a drop or what? Amazingly it has been on the market for 4 months.(This is a beautiful relatively new complex)
Now your average Joe would think buy,buy,buy and now.
I am thinking….give it another year and the lenders will give it to you if you pay the HOA fee. Seriously I do believe we are going to see inmigration for the time in a long time and it will be for the free food.
Imagine the quality of these freebee condos once the giveaway begins. What little equity one might have will be gone. I am scratching my head as to how the counties will assess based on free units. What matter is the millage rate if units are given away.
While real estate is getting real cheapo the infrastructure is going to fall apart. There is a price to pay for a free ride. Right Palmy?
Not the best way to rebuild now is it? Back to 1950.
On a lighter note the lenders are trying to opt out of responsibility for maintaining units in foreclosure. The state has drafted legislation dropping it squarely in their laps. The lenders claim it is not their problem till the actual foreclosure. They gonna lose this one big time! Use that TARP for lawn mowers baby.
Great post dime!
Love your stories.
Ditto.
I am scratching my head as to how the counties will assess based on free units. What matter is the millage rate if units are given away. They will take a clue from the banks and “mark-to-myth” according to the principle, “taxes always go up.”
forgot.
dime,
Have you noticed the complete crash in land?
Some very nice lots in Daytona begging for 45K
p.s.Hi Oly
Oh drats!
Could NOT let go of it.
____
The 1/1 asking 29K is on 633 Palmetto Ave (60 days on MLS)
Here’s the breakdown:
HOA $228
Taxes $1935 annual ($161 monthly)
Same building floor above sold for 35K in 2001 (per appraiser’s office)
Rental prices: there’s a 1/1 on 1350 palmetto asking $600
(guessing you’d have it for $500
per 2001 sales and comparable rental, I’d say it’s a fair non-bubble price, alas, not a bargain.
(sorry, couldn’t help myself)
Hi, Muirina.
Have you run around clasping sea turtles lately?
Say, I haven’t made the fabulous sounding recipe you offered to cheer me up on my boo-hooing day, and which I call:
‘Muirina’s Breasts* with Orange Glaze’, but I plan on it right away. I should serve it with nettles served like Fastette suggests, and it can be an HBB-themed meal!
*Chicken breasts, the rest of you. Jeeze, what did you think I meant?
(Hahahahah! That still just kills me, although I’ve said it twice now. Hahahahaah!)
what did you think I meant?
I was good with pretty much whatever type.
What’s the worst case scenario anyway?
You hacked up whoever drove you into despair, and ate his liver with some fava beans and a Chianti?
***SHRUG***
That was like a baseline case scenario. We knew you had it in you anyway!
I never knew what fava beans were until maybe in the last year or so. As I understand, they are a lot of work. You boil ‘em once, then take out the outer shell, then boil em again and take off the second shell before you get to the bean.
So knowing that now, really adds some color to that scene. I mean, you need to be somewhat serious about cooking those beans to undertake that job. And the Hannibal character, well, yeah that’s exactly what kinda beens he woulda chose. Its not every day you get to eat a person’s liver and by God if you’re gonna get to do it, you should have it with some good food. And good food is hard to get!
need to be somewhat serious about cooking those beans
I meant to add…
And Hannibal is a f’ing serious character! You know?
“Sorry Charley as you did not exercise due diligence in making the loan on bad data.”
So loan insurers are mitigating losses by claiming loan was made without due diligence and therefore no insurance coverage? If you do pay, you pay out on the new low low comps. Interesting. I suppose insurance contract says you don’t insure for original loan price but for current comps? Is so, why take insurance?
Times like this I wish I was practicing law. I would be rich rich rich.
A few more tiny observations, about Santa Fe, NM.
Have spent time in this town during last couple of weeks. This may be the “city different”, but still:
There are many “work - live - play” developments. Have passed by quite a few, numerous times, and they look / feel completely dead; never saw people there, let alone working/ playing ones.
It is rather strange to walk by some mud wall (i.e. adobe look-alike), and see what looks like modest bungalows with “Sotheby’s International” signs outside, in neighborhoods where nearby houses have iron bars infront of the windows, and where it looks as if chickens roamed not long ago.
In the higher end areas, every third house seems for sale.
There are over 3000 listed right now. So out of curiosity, I looked at the foreclosure website; there are almost 6000 foreclosures in Santa Fe county.
Last not least: walking through a small old neighborhood, saw a number of open houses. The owners were all realtors, who showed their houses to each other. They clustered in small groups, telling each other tales about how things are not looking good.
Sagesse, great front line observation! Oh, the schadenfreude!
Sagesse,
Was it you that mentioned you worked in Vietnam for 4 years ?
No. But I traveled there last year.
This is a glorious spring day. The colors of the flowers seem especially radiant in this light.
Meanwhile, I walked around and went into an open house. I asked the realtor about the number of foreclosure listings; she said she did not know if this was true, and she had not heard.
She said that a law was passed about 18 months ago, and people are now prevented from offering nightly rentals by complicated and costly regulations, and that the hotels have probably been pushing for these new regulations, due to the competition…which I believe to be a correct assessment.
Something similar to this also happened in Hawaii (Maui); there, the argument was that young surfers party too much, and live four to a room. I think this is bull, of course. One should be able to rent a room in a private house.
Hence, there are now dozens of (vacation) rentals available, for minimum 30 days - in Santa Fe, that is. How many of these owners will hold on, is the question. Some are trying to sell now, because the vacation rentals do not work as expected (realtor said that).
Yesterday, I spoke to a former gallery owner. He shut down his business, and said his customers were the kind who had 10 or 20 million, and lost a third in the stock market. They are not buying any art now. His sales started going flat 18 months ago, but he said some galleries still do ok. Although, one cannot expect people to tell it how it is in this town. This is a very strange town; ego-centered & elitist, on one hand. I spoke to a Native American who said: “cloak and dagger machiavellianism rules”. He really said that, without thinking or pausing - I was impressed.
Sagesse, you sure get around! Cool places, too. Are you a travel writer?
Two articles from the Toledo Blade that I think predict a dilemma we’ve been talking about for years. Overcompensated police and their future layoff. Toledo gangs reportedly have t-shirts that exclaim “When the 150 go, we’ll run the show.”
Toledo’s solution is to reduce priority for investigating property crime, disband the gang unit, and rely on an active Block Watch program.
Hope these links make it, but just search the Toledo Blade site.
Are Toledo officers Ohio’s best-compensated?
http://toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090426/NEWS02/904260315
As police layoffs near, Toledo area residents fear trouble
http://toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090426/NEWS02/904260334
Two articles from the Toledo Blade that I think predict a dilemma we’ve been talking about for years. Overcompensated police and their future layoff. Toledo gangs reportedly have t-shirts that exclaim “When the 150 go, we’ll run the show.”
Toledo’s solution is to reduce priority for investigating property crime, disband the gang unit, and rely on an active Block Watch program.
Hope these links make it, but just search the Toledo Blade site for these headlines.
Are Toledo officers Ohio’s best-compensated?
As police layoffs near, Toledo area residents fear trouble
Well, I hope those suburban castles defend themselves.
BWAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
(sorry if this is a double-post..got a server timeout error)
CA Renter, I wanted to respond to a couple comments you made to me late yesterday:
If it’s such a dire emergency, the government could open government banks and bypass the entire private banking system. This would be my preference, as money should be made by doing **work** not by passing other people’s money from one hand to another.
Do you not think that one should be compensated for the risk of loaning out one’s capital? Of course this isn’t what banks are doing - they’re loaning out the capital of their depositors…but your statement is a bit broad, I just wanted to clarify.
20% of a $40K income has a much greater value than 20% of a $500K income.
One is driven to abject poverty, while the other barely notices it. There is a difference, and a “flat” tax is most definitely regressive in that it harms poor people far more than the wealthy
I agree with your first statement, with caveats. But that’s not the point that I’m making.
If you consider it “regressive” to tax all money at the same rate, what would you call it when the first $XXX are taxed at 40%, the next $XXX at 25%, etc? to me, *that* is regressive - the opposite of progressive. Taxing all income at the same rate is “fair” in that all income is treated the same, and all earners are taxed at the same rate.
Sure, one can always find a way to argue that a certain tax structure is “unfair” for a certain reason. How is it “fair” that one person pays more in taxes for the same services than another?
My point is simply that to call a “flat” 10% tax “regressive” is not a fair characterization. To me, “regressive” taxation would be what I describe above, where rather than the first XXX of income be taxed at a lower rate than the next tier, it’s taxed at a higher rate.
I’m sorry drumminj but I’m confused. Are you saying that taxing the first dollar earned at a lower bracket than the last dollar is “progressive?” (Which is our current system and is considered progressive.) Whereas taxing the first dollar earned at a higher rate than the last dollar earn would be “regressive?” This is absolutely right and I agree with you to this point. But if you argue that a flat tax is not regressive because it doesn’t do the above I disagree and think I’m agreeing with CA renter. (Not sure since I didn’t read the entire post.)
The fact is there is a basic economic need that must be met for survival. Every person needs food, shelter and medical care and most likely, in our more complex society, transportation to survive. To tax the subsistence level earnings at the same rate as Bill Gates last dollar of earned income is neither “fair” nor progressive.
But don’t worry, the tax system does equal out for the wealthy and is beyond fair for them. After all, Bill Gates pays about 15% of his income (earned and unearned) for Federal and State combined. Yes, his last dollar earned via MicroSoft is taxed at 35%. No state due because he lives in WA which has no state income tax. But the vast majority of his income is “unearned” investment income from selling MSFT everyday. Highest rate on this is 15%. And since this income so greatly outweighs his “earned” income it brings his overall rate down to just a touch over 15%. Compare that to me, a small business owner, who starts at 15.3% for self-employment taxes even before the Fed and CA taxes kick in.
I promise you the wealthy, if you look at their average tax rate instead of their top income bracket, are paying far less in taxes (as a %) than you are. Whew, doesn’t that sound fairer?
(And before anyone jumps on me I do think capital gains, as well as interest income, should be taxed at a lower rate to encourage savings and investment. I just think there shouldn’t be quite the difference there is. I also think self-employment taxes should be lower.)
VERY late to the game here, but wanted to reply.
Yes, you are correctly reading *my* definitions of “regressive” and “progressive”. I’m not making a statement about whether one should be taxed less on income required for the “basics” in life. I’m just saying that calling the lack of that “regressive” is a misnomer. Otherwise there’s no “middle ground”. I don’t buy that things can only be regressive or progressive, with nothing in between that’s simply….neutral?
I get your point about effective tax rate. It is important. I think talking about rich folk like Bill Gates is kind of pointless, though. Yes, he’s “rich”. I’m not. I care more about the people not in the 99th percentile - like yourself. Most people who think they’re soaking the rich with taxes are simply soaking hard workers, small business owners, etc.
Today’s Wall Street Journal has an article on house prices falling further, and the need to price aggressively.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124057365983752607.html
Lower your price now or ride a falling knife all the way to the basement…
I don’t think anybody wants to “ride” a knife but they’re doing it anyway.
Is that why they call them things on houses “gutters”?
I am personally enjoying my “falling knife ride,” but then I rent it, don’t own it…
Oly,
You wrote yesterday about my stab at snake identification: “‘Schott’s Whipsnake’ is a great name for a snake. I hope that is the name, and not something like, ‘Bill’s Plain Old Snake’.”
Well, cactus, who seems to know snakes, wrote later that our yard snake is not a whipsnake as a whipsnake is not a constrictor. He reckons that it is some sort of rat snake, which makes absolute sense.
So it is pretty much ‘Plain Old Snake,’ unless there are some good species or subspecies names like:
‘Wind in the Willows Rat Snake’
‘Jimmy Cagney Rat Snake’
‘Big Daddy Roth Rat Snake’
‘Dead for a ducat, dead Rat Snake’
http://www.austinreptileservice.net/blotches.html
Austin Texas ? well anyway this is the first thing I found on the internet.
texas rat snake This is the most common large snake in the Austin area. The snake is often incorrectly called a ‘chicken snake’
maybe it was a chicken snake ?
I think it was a rat snake. First, it was eating a rat, which is what they are good for. Second, austinreptileservice mentions that there is considerable color variation. The one we saw was quite dark, much darker than the rat snake on texassnakes.net, which was what made me pass over rat snake (despite the appropriateness, if dullness, of the name).
Having rat consuming snakes is a good thing around here. The canyon harbors wildlife of all sorts; we have a compost pile; we always have food and water out for birds; instead of a manicured lawn and cube shaped hedges we have abundant ground covers and sprawling shrubs.
So it’s a good habitat for wildlife, albeit one in which I would like to have rats kept in check. I want my sprawling shrubs to harbor painted bunting, not compost fattened rats.
We have had our house well sealed, all round - likewise our deck. We enjoy having all this wildlife around us in the middle of the city, but don’t want rats or squirrels or bats in the attic, raccoons in the walls, snakes under the house or deck, etc.
I think a chicken snake would hang out around the corner a few houses down, where the old hippy couple raise chickens, guinea fowl, and peafowl.
let no one think term “old hippy” is derogatory - just that said couple is absolutely iconic
The front page of today’s “Chicago Tribune” has agents singing about the uptick in activity and “the scent of sales”. Of course they’re comparing MOM numbers rather than YOY (which would show volume at approx. 50%) to herald this glorious reawakening.
Deep in the article it is mentioned that buyers are mostly first timers and don’t seem to be in any hurry.
I guess this is what a “dead cat bounce” feels like.
Kim, you of all people, should know a “dead cat bounce” when you see one!
It happens a lot slower in real estate.
We just extended what was our 9-month lease for another year.
Agreed. It happens a lot slower.
But when you are sitting in your house eating a nice meal, sipping a fine wine, and listening to some good music or reading a book, ponder the alternative.
You could be an owner of a house a.k.a. an FB.
Ok, that’s enough creepiness out of me.
Heya all!
News on ETF front and FED (and no, Im not making this stuff up)
1. ETFs that target toxic assets (PPPIP) being considered.
2. Also, Federal reserve show a profit despite tumultuous year (Christian Science Monitor.)
(posted links in Fl thread yesterday, or google it)
“ETFs that target toxic assets (PPPIP) being considered.”
Has anyone suggested a suitable acronym for such funds yet? I suggest
SSBHUF = self-selected bagholders’ underwater fund
It might be good to buy as soon as they are offered. You know the gov will want to make it look like a must have investment so they will pump up the first ETFs. Then everyone will start talking about how you can’t go wrong with these things gov guarantee and all. Or you could just go to Vegas and put it all on Red.
See HHS dot GOV: Public health emergency for the US declared at 3 pm EST today (4/26).
Here’s the link:
http://www.hhs.gov/secretary/phe_swh1n1.html
They pretty much have to, given the mass hysteria already in place.
Okay, this is a scary post to make.
Because we’re on the verge of buying a house. (Yes, “homeloaners.” Heh.)
It’s been years coming– we were ready to buy a house many many years ago, and were frustrated because it looked as though we’d never be able to. So Evil Rob told me to “research this homebuying thing, okay?” and I started by wondering why the traditional scale was less than 3x income, yet the houses around us were so much insanely higher than that. How could the people around us afford homes?
The answer, as you know, is that they couldn’t, that it was all a bizarre shell game. I found some good essays on the site that gave us the wonderful term FB and from there got links that led me here, in 2005.
Sheesh. That’s a long time.
So I became educated on the bubble, its causes, and its likely down path, and Evil Rob and I (and eventually the Dude) sat back to wait.
And now… well, ER’s job is as secure barring unlikely circumstances. The house is on a lot that is .22 acre– larger than the standard lot size in Elk Grove (which, for some reason, likes to think a .15 acre lot is “large.” Crazy.) It’s not huge but it’s almost all backyard, and it has a big pine if Olygal ever wants to visit. It’s less than 3x income– ONE income, ER’s income. It’s a bad idea to use both incomes to justify a bigger mortgage, IMO. It’s not in a floodplain. And the house, several decades old, has been maintained… which was something that hadn’t happened with a single one of the newer foreclosures we visited. Seriously, how do you rot out the shower pan of a house less than a decade old? Acid baths?
What’s crazy is that if you go to the tax records, the previous (foreclosed) owner bought for over $100K more– in 2003, two years before the peak. We purchased for almost 40% less, which means that if it had sold in 2005… I don’t know, except that appreciation was beyond insane.
We’re pretty near the center of the housing bubble, so maybe earliest rise leads to earliest fall. We’re actually cheaper than Eugene, Oregon right now, which is crazy insane.
Do I think this is the bottom? No, absolutely not. But house we want at price we can afford, with minimal maintenance-level upgrades and a nice lot with a good backyard for kids? (Once we take out that blinking oleander.) Not to mention that it’s ugly as sin inside (not painted since it was built, and country-blue wallpaper… ooh, yeah.) No, really, that’s a plus as we intended to paint for allergen-related reasons anyway, so now there’s no guilt. Aaaaand it’s just ugly enough that the bank took us seriously when we underbid and met us under what we had been willing to pay. (It had been on the market for over 200 days.)
This is longer than I wanted. Anyway, I wanted to thank everybody for their information. Too many to thank individually, though Olygal’s posts are always a riot.
I’m not leaving, because it’s too much fun around here.
Thanks for giving me hope all those years ago and keeping me from becoming either bitter or deluded.
Keep us posted.
B. Durbin,
What part of Elk Grove are you buying in? My sister and her family live in Elk Grove.
It’s a cul-de-sac in the Crests (every street seems to end in Crest) near Bond and E. Stockton. In fact the particular property backs onto E. Stockton with an eight-foot sound wall. The sound isn’t too bad, though, and we first looked at the place during rush hour and before the greenery grew out.
And on THAT note, the backyard is seriously overgrown. It looked half the size when we went for the inspection since spring went absolutely riot. When we get the place I’m borrowing a chainsaw. Send search teams out if you don’t hear from me.
What’s the half life of a happy renter?
At least 3x that of an FB.
Ooh, math-related sociology.
Half-life equation… once you’ve got the rate of decay. Hmmm.
Factors that decay the happiness of a renter:
1. Responsiveness of management; the less responsive, the higher the rate of decay.
2. Restrictiveness of terms; the more restrictive, the higher rate of decay.
3. Noise. Self-evident.
4. Neighbor quality. Note that the larger the complex, the higher the possibility of a bad egg regardless of screening process.*
5. Space. As an example, space more than sufficient for a couple is not enough for a couple with kids… if there’s no garage to put dangerous things out of reach of grabby little fingers.
For internal sources, you have to factor in the temperament of the renter in question– is the renter a free spirit or someone who wants to put down serious roots? Do they long for the suburban life or are they all about the parties? And so forth.
No idea how to determine the rate from that, but hey, we can have fun trying, right?
*Our current complex is about 60-80 units. Since we’ve lived here, one neighbor set fire to his building (about eight units per) by putting no fewer than three Duraflame logs in the fireplace and one neighbor got shot by the sheriffs in a domestic dispute. (He was cussing them out when getting loaded into the ambulance, so it wasn’t fatal.) But on the whole, they’re nice people.
Big pine tree?! Hooray! Them’s all sticky, but ever so satisfying to summit.
…and ‘country blue’ wallpaper’…been there. *shudder *
I’m glad you’re not leaving, durby.
News from Houston
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/steffy/6391630.html
The logjam in lending inflicts pain
The Lien Gangrene Strikes Meanly to the Has-Beens?
This article caught my eye as it mentions a disturbing trend of banks CREATING defaults were none exist.
If the value of the property has fallen below the amount of the loan, and the FD has no monies to pony up, it’s in default. The good news is that the bank isn’t sweeping it under the rug.
Take the pain early. It’s the healthy thing to do.
So looking at San Diego home prices I am reminding of my old town of Moorpark CA and the reason I sold and bailed. Poway most homes priced over 300 dollars a square foot. hahaha thats funny.
It thinks its Orange County.
Another question for you local folks is the commute south on Interstate 15 hell itself ? say from Escondido to Sorrento Valley ?
“Another question for you local folks is the commute south on Interstate 15 hell itself ? say from Escondido to Sorrento Valley ?”
New car pool lanes under construction (in some sections recently completed) are tipping the equation towards shorter commute times. You can also get off I-15 at Bernardo Center Road and take the back roads all the way in to Sorrento Valley without ever getting on the freeway again (my daily commute!). I expect this to remain an easy, virtually traffic-free commute until the labor market turns around and all the vacant homes in the 4S Ranch / Del Sur corridor are eventually occupied — probably more than three years from now, on the conservative end of the range. (One can surmise that many of these are vacant from the light traffic relative to the number of new home developments in the area.)
Holy snap!!
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/ny-liteac1812665687apr18,0,2413215.story
“One of those teachers, who has taught science in Central Islip since 1967… In addition to his teaching salary last year of $146,587, he also received $55,455 in stipends for coaching three swim teams and supervising a summer Learn to Swim Program.”
” In addition to his teaching salary last year of $146,587, he also received $55,455 in stipends for coaching three swim teams and supervising a summer Learn to Swim Program”
What a rip off ! In addition to working my regular job I have coached ten little league teams for which I received $ 0.00
But I did receive many thanks from kids and parents, lots of great memories and pictures with my kids and their teams and probably ten gift certificates to restaurants. Come to think of it, with all the friends we made and the kids that still come up to me today and say hey coach and tell me how they are doing, how their parents are and how much fun they had. That guy can keep his 55 grand.
Those poor underpaid teachers! I’m glad there are special tax credits just for them. And having to work 9 months out of the year! That must be horrible.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,620754,00.html
Middle Class Plunging Into Poverty (from Der Spiegel).
Surely, the idea that credit was money was absurd. I feel no sympathy for these fools just because it is reported in the liberal German press.
Remind me again what this complete imbecile did again for a living?
‘Business is poor in the New York banking district around Wall Street these days, even for drug dealers. In the good old days, they used to supply America’s moneyed elite with cocaine and crack. But now, with the good times gone, they spend their days in the Bowery Mission, a homeless shelter with a dining hall and a chapel.
Alvin, 47, is one of them. His customers are gone, as is the money he earned during better times. And when another dealer higher up the food chain decided he was entitled to a bigger cut of the profits, things became too dicey for Alvin. “I’m afraid,” he says.’
Oh my — even drug dealers are seeing their middle-class lifestyle slipping away from them.
What will become of the financial sector if their moneyed elite employees are cut off from their cocaine and crack supplies?
Ow! I just dropped the world’s smallest violin down my ear canal!