May 3, 2009

Bits Bucket For May 3, 2009

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222 Comments »

Comment by darrell_in_phx
2009-05-03 05:52:15

Just wondering… Have we now figured out a way for consumers and businesses to spen 110% of their income, forever, without ever having to pay on or for any of the debt?????

In my mind, that is what is needed to return to “business as usual”.

I think that what we have in the current economy is the government jumping in with $1.5 trillion annual deficits and the Fed buying lots of the debt to pump cash into the system. Nice for the select few mega corps that this money is going to. But, for Main Street where the buying and consuming actually happens?

Previous post-Depression recessions ended when enough debt was thrown at the economy that consumers would go into debt. This time, consumers already have too much debt and are in, or on the edge of bankruptcy.

I do not buy that we are anywhere near the end of this recession.

Comment by palmetto
2009-05-03 05:56:39

“I do not buy that we are anywhere near the end of this recession.”

Nor do I. It won’t end until the gov’t has stopped tinkering, the bottom is reached, and new ways are found to produce goods and services that are truly needed and wanted. Possibly the recession and the flu will mimic each other, seeming to ease up and then coming back with a vengeance.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 06:02:00

“Possibly the recession and the flu will mimic each other, seeming to ease up and then coming back with a vengeance.”

My money is on the recession lasting long past the time when this swine flu outbreak is a fading memory. And I also expect the economic consequences of the media and political hype surrounding the flu outbreak to far outweigh the health impacts.

 
Comment by SUGUY
2009-05-03 06:35:33

The Government has its mind made up to see the market for securitized products restored. They are optimistic that ultimately they will be able to get that part of the financial sector going again. I also believe that the Obama administration thinks they will be able to restore confidence and trust via regulations which has caused the breakdown.

I doubt confidence can be restored so quickly. Once burnt twice shy. History and time is not on their side

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 07:51:37

“The Government has its mind made up to see the market for securitized products restored.”

I guess they somehow missed the memo that securitization was a leading cause of last year’s Wall Street collapse?

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Comment by SUGUY
2009-05-03 09:43:36

The Obama’s administration thinks it has no other choices. What else can they really do?

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 10:58:28

I guess they could start by acknowledging the futility of trying to turn back the clock, and then fervently strive to find the least-painful road forward to a sustainable recovery path. I know that is a lot to ask of politicians and the sort of economists who advise them.

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-05-03 16:58:40

PB,

The problem is when a politician tells the truth, the next election cycle voters will boot him/or her out.

 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-05-03 21:57:26

Hence the need for true campaign finance reform.
JustSixDollars dotcom or org.
When the need to raise money to run for an office from local dog catcher to POTUS, then and only then will we have choices of people who have principles, not debts to lobbyists and corporations.

 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2009-05-03 07:03:42

new ways are found to produce goods and services that are truly needed and wanted.

New ways are found…by WHOM? Not large corporations, that’s for sure — they pretend to like innovation…until they see the price tag. Small business? Why bother, if you can’t get workers because you can’t give them health care, you have high chance of failure, and Wal*Mart will run you out of town anyway? Government? Oh wait, that’s tinkering.

But I agree I don’t like tinkering with the banks….

Comment by drumminj
2009-05-03 08:52:18

Personally, I’d *rather* work for a small company than a big one. So, don’t count out small business due to lack of attracting talent - I imagine there are many out there like me.

Now if small businesses were hiring, that’d be nice….

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Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-05-03 09:27:41

I worked for large corporations before and contract out to a small company. There is no way I would want to work for this small company as a direct hire. Too much politics and too few projects. So if you cannot get along with someone, you still have to see that person almost every day anyway. That person could be a manager. In large companies you can get away from mean spirited people.

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-05-03 09:56:46

In large companies you can get away from mean spirited people.

I guess I’ve not actively tried to move away from anyone - never have needed to. Personally, I prefer the lesser bureaucracy of small companies, and the ability to have control/a big impact. In a big company, the “box” you are put in is pretty specific because they have staff to do all the other ancillary things. In a small company, you get to do some stuff outside of your “realm” because there’s not already a huge department for it. I prefer that.

But that’s just me.

 
Comment by tresho
2009-05-03 13:35:30

The Amish lifestyle level of society has plenty of room.

 
Comment by X-GSfixer
2009-05-03 15:15:25

+1, BILA

Too many “small companies” are run by some kind of family oligarcy, with a “my way, or the highway” attitude. And their pay, benefits, hours, etc. etc. are typically not as good.

Larger companies also seem to do a better job of keeping toxic managers from ascending the food chain. Word gets around….

 
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-05-03 16:59:55

At one large company there was a toxic manager who was belligerant to many employees by micromanaging, making statements that could be misconstrued as threats (although we knew they were “figures of speech,” such as “I should get a gun and shoot you,” which is exactly what he told some woman. I reported him for his unwarranted harrassment behind my back about me. He got pushed out of the managerial role and his job was divided in two.

People like that are rare in the big corporations and don’t last long in managerial roles, but mostly because employees vote with their feet and go to other projects, and big corporations usually have tens of dozens of projects. In that same corporation there were corporate campuses in various parts of the city, so you did not have to stick around the people you did not like.

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-05-03 20:45:46

BiLA - You think people like that are more common in small companies? I’m not sure I’ve seen a correlation, but I haven’t worked enough places to really draw any conclusions. In the end, big company or small, you have to vote with your feet. Depending on the type of work you do and are interested in, transferring within the company may not be an option.

 
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-05-03 20:53:07

I only go where I am wanted. I haven’t had to look for a new engineering contract since 2002. Since then, I don’t contact head hunters. They contact me. I have a good network coast to coast.

 
Comment by waiting in_la
2009-05-03 21:05:36

so humble, Bill.

 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-05-03 22:06:06

Au Contraire Bila
In large companies you can get away from mean spirited people.

And that part about “word getting around” from Xgsfixer.
Yes it does, but in big corps, you have politics on a major scale.
And the hiring amongst the truly talented doesn’t happen. It is ‘who you know’, not developing people from within that might really enhance new ideas and practices.
Seen it first hand. No developing of people who really know the particular field.

 
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-05-04 06:57:34

so humble, Bill.

I’m sorry, waitinginLA. It’s a fact. A fact does not mean one is not humble. And I am humble.

 
 
 
Comment by KJ
2009-05-03 07:08:47

Since WW2, the average length of a recession has been 16 months. Say this one is 50% worse than average which would be 24 months. The current recession began 12/07, we’re in month 17 now and so have 7 more months to go.

Comment by darrell_in_phx
2009-05-03 07:10:54

But what if it is 500% worse instead of 50% worse????

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Comment by KJ
2009-05-03 07:16:11

You mean it’s different this time?

 
Comment by darrell_in_phx
2009-05-03 07:27:43

I do think it is different. Each of the last recessions was “fixed” by loosening lending standards and showering business and consumers with debt.

This time, during the boom the lending standards were so unimaginably loose that we can’t possibly get backto them, let alone looser. So much debt was added, that we can’t pour enough debt on the economy to get consumers and (non-finaicial sector) businesses to take on more debt.

Look at the federal reserve Z1. Incomes and inflation up 50% since 1993. Per-husehold consumer debt up 180%. Business debt up 270%.

The “modis operendi” of ending a recession, will not work this time. We can’t loosen lending standards beyond where they were, not can we shower consumers and business with new debt.

We’re in full debt collapse mode now.

 
Comment by Muggy
2009-05-03 07:39:29

“We’re in full debt collapse mode now.”

Allow me…

POOF!

 
Comment by KJ
2009-05-03 09:06:11

“Each of the last recessions was “fixed” by loosening lending standards and showering business and consumers with debt.”

Not really. Recessions end due to the natural business cycle. Expansions end on their own and recessions end on their own.
This recession will end on its own eventually too. Might be sooner, might be later. But it will end. I think by the end of this year with 2010 being one of those “jobless recovery” type years that the MSM loves to talk about (although won’t with Obama in office and just focus on GDP).

As to the added debt, a lot of that debt has been written off already and doesn’t exist anymore. Which is what caused Fannie, Freddie, Lehman, Wachovia, WaMu, AIG, etc to fail.

 
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-05-03 09:34:51

Government must stop tinkering around in areas it does not belong. Also house prices must be allowed to fall to their appropriate levels before the recession will end.

One interesting thing to do is compare the stock market dips in 1929 and 1933 with the dips in 2001/2002 and this March 9. Could be an encouraging sign because the stock market went up 8 or 9% per year after the 1933 low, despite 19% unemployment in the FDR recession of 1937.

I would never buy a house built between 2001 and now. The Chinese drywall issue is one thing. The shoddy construction from day laborers is another reason. A house built between 1997 and 2001 would be okay, I suppose.

 
Comment by exeter
2009-05-03 10:17:09

“I do think it is different”

Agreed. And it is “different this time” because the out and out failure of supply side economics aka crony capitalism has not been fully revealed yet. The only damage seen is on the surface.

 
Comment by KJ
2009-05-03 10:30:18

Don’t you mean the Hoover recession of 1937? FDR did nothing wrong during his 12 years in office. Like Obama will do nothing wrong for 8 years and it will still be Bush’s fault in 2015.

 
Comment by desertdweller
2009-05-03 22:10:49

As to the added debt, a lot of that debt has been written off already and doesn’t exist anymore.

KJ, not so fast. The rest of america is really financially without funds and loaded with debt.
It is different this time. The previous times weren’t global.
The scum/banks of WS probably have written off all debt, no one else has been able to, and pay bills-food/utilities,rent/gas etc. Basic stuff.
I have many colleagues whose spouses have lost their jobs, have decided to stay in etc. Lots and lots of cutting back and that is JUST to pay bills. Not even to save.

 
Comment by Max Nigh
2009-05-05 14:26:47

What are the Banks or real estate lenders talking about when they bring up “moral certitiude or certainty”, in reference to not allowing mortgagors to use the current value of the house, to establish the basis for a mortgage?

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 11:41:41

How many of the recessions since WWII were accompanied by a collapse of a derivatives-based Ponzi scheme?

Genesis of the debt disaster
By Gillian Tett
Published: May 1 2009 19:16 | Last updated: May 1 2009 19:16

illustration of dominoes depicting the role of JP Morgan in the financial crisis

WAY TO GO, JP MORGAN! HOW ABOUT A LITTLE MORE BAILOUT MONEY TO COMPENSATE YOU FOR YOUR SEMINAL ROLE IN PERPETRATING A FINANCIAL DISASTER!!

BwaHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!

In the 1990s, a young team at Wall Street investment bank JP Morgan pioneered a new way of making money – credit derivatives. Within a decade, the market for these exotic securities had exploded to more than $12,000bn – and some people later blamed them for fuelling the global financial fiasco. In the first of two extracts from her book, Fool’s Gold, the FT’s Gillian Tett reveals how the innovation genie was first let out of the bottle – and eventually devoured the system, to the horror of its creators.

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Comment by BanteringBear
2009-05-03 14:03:08

Why are these derivatives still being sold? These ARE weapons of financial destruction.

 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-03 15:30:10

Nice find.

 
Comment by packman
2009-05-03 16:55:49

Nursery Cryme

 
 
 
 
Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2009-05-03 06:11:15

‘I do not buy that we are anywhere near the end of this recession.’

The sky will open. The light will come down. Celestial choirs will be singing, and everyone will know we should do the right thing and the world will be perfect. Thus, we will know the recession has ended.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 06:20:38

Your scenario omitted the running of the bulls on Wall Street. When the end of the recession is in sight, the DJIA will shoot up like a rocket, instead of sickly plunging up and down in the vicinity of 8K. But beware of head fakes (like the one back in 1933, when FDR was in his first year in office…).

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2009-05-03 06:55:12

Spring 2009 is a pivotal time.

They’re now calling for modest 2Q decline in GDP - so at some point between now and mid-July lies the fate of Benny’s 2H 2009 recovery.

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Comment by pressboardbox
2009-05-03 06:20:18

You just urinated on my green shoots.

Comment by darrell_in_phx
2009-05-03 07:31:24

Foreclousres are happening faster than ever. Housing price declines are accelerating. Bankruptcies are skyrocketing. Creidt lines are being exhausted or revoked. Unemployment is mounting. Baby Boomer retirement is building.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 07:40:48

So I guess you are suggesting a bottom is nigh at hand?

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Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-05-03 09:38:42

Again, how can boomers retire? We boomers lost quite a lot in our retirement plans and must work several more years than intended. My cousins are all older than me and my sisters. The cousins are saying they have to work longer now than they intended.

I think the end of the boomer consumer has been postponed for several years.

There is a baby boom now. In eighteen years there will be a rerun of the late 70s and then the 80s.

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Comment by Terry
2009-05-03 10:20:30

In 1997, I decided that I was going to retire at 62. I did.
As a boomer, I have looked forward to retirement for a long time. Way back in 1990, I looked at the world from a 1967 price standpont. This, with some good advice from my dad, ” never pay someone for what you can and should do yourself”, I have retired very comfortably.
I haven’t purchased a new car since 1970. I don’t own a cell phone, I don’t have cable.
I do have lake frontage, two boats, a Harley, two snowmobiles and two Dodge trucks. i do not use credit cards…period.
I’ve owned four lake homes, 9 houses and three hobby farms, all of which I either built myself or remolded from the ground up and made big bucks in profits when sold.
I do all my own auto work,including body work.
Everytime I make a purchase, I ask myself, what the 1967 cost would have been. Then I shoot for it. Theres always some fool that has to sell. I never compulsive buy. if i don’t get it at my price, I don’t buy.
So here Iam retired living comfortably, far removed from the I gotta have it now crowd, with everything paid for.
Bottom line here is the choices we make. if you want to run with the crowd, theres a price to pay. In most boomers cases, its the never be able to retire price.
To bad, so sad!

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 11:01:55

Bill —

Excellent point! We boomers are going to be too busy steadily working through the duration of what would have been our retirement years to have much time to spend, spend, spend like the previous generation of hard-vacationing, Winnebago-driving retirees did before us. With the boomer generation sidelined, who will fuel the consumption recovery that top policymakers so desperately crave?

 
Comment by tresho
2009-05-03 13:40:32

Terry, did you pay the 1967 cost of the computer you just used to post that message of yours? LOL

 
Comment by KJ
2009-05-03 13:55:07

Except one thing. You boomers have what we and and 30 somethings don’t….the numbers to vote yourselves a nice retirement, paid for by us. Step 1 is removing the SS cap on the “rich” because God forbid we let that ponzi scheme fail. Then lower the definition of rich and finally increase the rate itself. SS will run out, but not before you all get what you are “entitled” to.

It also doesn’t hurt your cause that the political class today is made up almost exclusively of boomers who will be looking out for their own interests.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 14:16:14

“You boomers have what we and and 30 somethings don’t….the numbers to vote yourselves a nice retirement, paid for by us.”

Votes will not suffice to enable the squeezing of blood out of turnips.

 
Comment by AdamCO
2009-05-03 15:27:02

Boomers have it all. At least it feels like that sometimes. Where I live, the boomers bought houses for three times their salary and today are trying to sell them for ten times the local salary, so they can get more money and move away somewhere.

Boomers enjoyed a life of high-paying manufacturing jobs, cheap college tuition, inexpensive or provided health insurance, and employer-provided pensions.

Call me pouty, but when it takes a graduate degree to be able to rent a house from a boomer, all while paying for their SS benefits and health care, and maybe clearing a couple hundred bucks to save at the end of the month…well, it sucks.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-03 15:48:37

Call me pouty,

Yer pouty! Yes, you are! And you know what? Call ME: ‘Pouty II’.

*pouts *

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-03 17:03:32

So here I am retired living comfortably, far removed from the I gotta have it now crowd, with everything paid for.

As I’ve said before; I like a story with a happy ending.

 
Comment by novawatcher
2009-05-04 20:15:38

Pouty 3!

 
 
 
Comment by Lesser Fool
2009-05-03 22:27:34

urine is a good fertilizer.

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2009-05-03 08:09:27

Any Rightly so…there is very little stimulus from the Bottom up…sure SS will get $250…be we still are at the mercy of the cc people who can jack up rates for 45 days even if OHbama signs new legislation then what?

Millions will say Fyou and default….and $heety will write off more billions in CC loses for the next 8 quarters….When this doesn’t have to happen

Either lower the interest to 5% for the next 5 years or give us $1000 2000 pay down of our balances…
—————————-
I do not buy that we are anywhere near the end of this recession.

Comment by drumminj
2009-05-03 09:00:06

While I agree with you that the ‘little people’ aren’t getting bailed out, why should us taxpayers bail out people with credit card debt?

I’m not attacking you personally, aNYCdj - it’s clear you’re making an effort to find work and keep your head above water, but just because bailing out banks is happening (but is “wrong”) doesn’t make it okay to take more money from taxpayers to bailout another group of people.

And I know Ben will comment that the taxpayers aren’t paying for this…I suppose that’s true - taxes aren’t rising to fully cover the bill - but those who are net taxpayers likely have savings that is getting devalued considerably due to the inflation/money printing involved in funding these bailouts.

Comment by Ben Jones
2009-05-03 09:11:16

‘taxes aren’t rising to fully cover the bill’

Taxes hardly covered the INTEREST on ‘the bill’ before the housing bubble even started, and hadn’t for decades!

‘but those who are net taxpayers likely have savings that is getting devalued considerably’

I’ve grown tired of making the point, but only in the US do people think they deserve to park their money in one currency and draw investment grade returns, with no risk and FDIC guarantees. There have always been alternatives and ways to diversify.

And how many Wall Street firms are gone? Every Friday banks are shut down. Oh, yeah, it’s just a peachy time for all these lenders. IMO, the Fed system is desperately trying to save itself. Will it? I don’t know. But if you don’t like being a part of the Federal Reserve system, get away from it.

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Comment by drumminj
2009-05-03 10:07:19

Ben, I understand you feel you hear the same thing over and over, but you’re attacking claims that I never made.

Yes, taxes may hardly cover the interest on ‘the bill’, but that doesn’t mean that taxes aren’t increasing as a result of the bust/bailouts, regardless of what portion of the bill it covers.

I never made any claims of expectations of “investment-grade returns”. In fact, the point I made was that the purchasing power of the money is decreasing…which is true (measured in pretty much anything other than housing and stocks). I didn’t say I’m not getting the 10% a year I want. I’m simply saying that my savings, money - which is supposed to be a stable store of value - isn’t so much.

I am diversified (to the degree that I can be at this stage - I need to keep pretty liquid since I’m drawing down my savings at the moment, and might need it - not a time to take “risks” with it due to currency fluctuations, etc), and I’m doing what I can to *not* be a part of the system I despise. I can’t avoid paying taxes - I’ll just end up in jail. But I pay cash when I can to avoid giving bankers a % of each transaction, and to the degree that I’m comfortable I keep cash out of banks - I have no cash with the “big 19″.

In the end, someone is paying for this. The banks, to some degree. The depositors to another. The taxpayers as well, foreign holders of US debt, and future US taxpayers. I don’t think it’s wrong for someone to speak up and say “hey, why should I have to pay?” even if we’re only paying for a fraction of the total bill.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 11:08:20

‘I don’t think it’s wrong for someone to speak up and say “hey, why should I have to pay?” even if we’re only paying for a fraction of the total bill.’

I agree with Ben. So long as cross-border diversification is legally an option, why not let your money vote with its feet?

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-05-03 11:30:50

Does that mean one shouldn’t also speak up? I feel like y’all are attacking the ultimate strawman here. Sure, I can vote with my dollars, and I am to the extent I am comfortable with (I’m sure I can be criticized for that).

But does that mean I can’t also speak out against policies I think are wrong/unfounded/unfair? Or are we no longer allowed to exercise our voices - only our dollars?

 
Comment by measton
2009-05-03 11:33:51

I think Europe has insured deposits as well.

I’m all for a limited insured amount, and well regulated banks. My guess is that this guarantee does help the economy. That’s why the FEDS extended it to money market funds. You want some stability in the system, not a bunch of bank runs which is what you would get in an uninsured system as soon as banks started to fail. It would be the economic equivalent of an atomic bomb, once withrawls and fears reached the critical mass BOOM.

I’m totally against insuring banks against failure. I think there should be a limit on the size of banks and that they should be broken up if they get above a certain size. There should be no such thing as too big to fail. The whole idea of these CEO’s making 10’s-100’s of millions off of the US tax payer, and the protections we give to bond holders and less so stock holders makes me want to puke.

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2009-05-03 09:56:48

Thanks, I cant wait to tell people good news. Its been a long time. Tonight i will find out if a HS reunion i have for memorial day weekend will cancel…$500 poof, with the 2 others that canceled….$99 a ticket and they needed 75 just to break even…
—————

why should us taxpayers bail out people with credit card debt?

I’m not saying bail us out, just give us some breathing room..It would so easy to default and get it dismissed in court. But try living without at least 1 low interest /fees card.

I thank Ben et al for listening, I really am having a hard time with the total shut down of communications. Jobs are there but how do you communicate with people/employers when they refuse to talk to anyone…i know its not just me.

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Comment by drumminj
2009-05-03 10:21:58

I’m not saying bail us out, just give us some breathing room

Here’s my point, aNYCdj….I’d like some “breathing room” as well. I’m drawing down my savings at a rate of about $2k/month. I’d like some money to help cover living expenses as well. But if we all get some, then who pays for it?

Who determines who doesn’t deserve the “help”, and who we should take from? What authority do they have?

The only reason I have the savings is because I “sacrificed” at some point, and chose to put the money in the bank rather than eat out, take a trip, buy a new car, etc (not saying you did any of those things..just speaking of my own actions here). So, because I sacrificed in the past, I don’t deserve help now?

It’s not personal, it’s simply that any sort of program like that would be inherently “unfair”. Yes, there are plenty of unfair policies in play at the moment..but that doesn’t make it okay to institute one more, ya know?

 
Comment by KJ
2009-05-03 10:36:51

If you are drawing down savings is this due to unemployment? Is so you can - and should - get handouts from the govt…ui benefits, medicare, all sorts of goodies are out there for the “unfortunate”.

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-05-03 10:43:39

Yes, drawing down due to being unemployed. And yes, I’m collecting UI, but that’s not a gov’t handout (well, the extra $25/month is and the emergency extended benefits are).

Unfortunately, I expected this to be “temporary” and am paying quite a bit in rent for a month-to-month lease, expecting to move once I get a job nailed down. Sadly, this “temporary” arrangement keeps dragging out. It’s a ‘luxury’ I can afford at the moment, though, so I guess it’s okay.

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-05-03 10:45:44

er, $25/week, not month.

 
Comment by KJ
2009-05-03 10:58:22

How’s it not a handout? It’s the very definition of a hand out. Lose job, ask govt for money, get money.

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-05-03 11:33:39

Because the “government” isn’t paying for it - my former employer is. Unemployment insurance is administered by the government, but is paid for by the company.

There’s certainly an argument there that it’s a business “tax” like any other, but my understanding of UI is that it’s fundamentally different. It’s not like food stamps.

 
Comment by ET-Chicago
2009-05-03 13:02:36

Unemployment insurance is administered by the government, but is paid for by the company.

It’s paid for by the company, but indirectly by the employee as well — unemployment insurance, healthcare packages, 401K matches and so on are priced in by employers and most certainly impact the compensation one receives as an employee.

 
Comment by KJ
2009-05-03 13:58:00

And of course the employer 1/2 of social security. Despite what most people think, employees pay the full 12.4% themselves indirectly.

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-05-03 15:06:41

It’s paid for by the company, but indirectly by the employee as well

Yes, I agree…hence my stance that it’s not a “government handout”, as KJ claims above

 
Comment by packman
2009-05-03 18:00:57

By that logic - then the government doesn’t pay for anything, because all money comes from either corporations or individuals. That’s kind of like, if you worked for GE, saying that your weekly grocery bill isn’t paid by you it’s paid by GE.

The fact that the money goes into a general government pool of money, to be given to specific individuals based on specific circumstances, means the government is paying for it. Unemployment checks don’t come to you from your company - they come to you from the government.

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-05-03 20:49:57

packman - I see your point, and yes, from one perspective it all boils down to that.

However, there is a difference between, say, food stamps and FDIC insurance, no?

To me, unemployment insurance is like FDIC..it’s paid for via premiums from the companies involved, not the general population. Yes, in the end, it’s the consumers who pay for EVERYTHING, but if you take it to that extreme, then it’s really not worth talking about.

 
Comment by packman
2009-05-03 21:33:40

Yes true, but IMO the concept of “government handout” still applies. The government is taking from the general populace, and giving back only to the needy. “From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.”

Not good IMO, at least from an overall perspective. If you’re on the receiving end it’s great, and there’s nothing wrong with receiving (as I believe you are). Who I have a problem with is the government creating the programs in the first place.

Insurance is a great thing, but I feel very strongly it should be optional - not forced on us by the government. That includes health care, FDIC, unemployment, corporate bailouts, etc. It all boils down to the fact that they’re mandatory insurance. Mandatory insurance paid for by a huge pool of insured, with government as the actuary, lends itself to massive abuse in the form of excessive risk-taking and fraud.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by SUGUY
2009-05-03 05:54:43

In short order, Lehman collapsed.

I would call this guy the scam artist of out times. He brought down the bank. What is so brilliant about that?

How Lehman Brothers Got Its Real Estate Fix

Answer:He started believing his own bull shit.

BACK when he was a major Wall Street deal maker, Mark A. Walsh, the former head of the global real estate group at Lehman Brothers, had a running joke with Carmine Visone, one of his managing directors. Mr. Visone, 10 years older than his boss, would lecture Mr. Walsh about the importance of fundamentals: land values, construction cost and rents.
As Mr. Visone remembers it, Mr. Walsh would wave his hand dismissively and would argue just as emphatically that the best way to make office buildings spew cash was through the magic of financial engineering. Typically, Mr. Visone gave in.
“He was too smart for me,” Mr. Visone recalls.
Many others were equally in awe of Mr. Walsh’s intellect. Until Lehman Brothers collapsed last September, Mr. Walsh was considered the most brilliant real estate financier on Wall Street. In the ’90s, he pioneered the art of lending to office building developers and then slicing up and repackaging the debt for investors. Less risky pieces went to institutional investors; the lower-rated chunks to hedge funds and others hungry for juicier returns. Lehman pocketed a fee every step of the way, and it often retained a risky piece or two to give its own earnings a kick.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/03/business/03real.html?pagewanted=4&hp

“Guys like this are very rare,” says Mr. Rosen, the developer. “He’ll be back. He picked up the phone and people listen. Nobody can take that away from him.”

This is the reason we have expressions like there is a sucker born every minute.

Comment by combotechie
2009-05-03 06:51:41

“‘Guys like this are very rare,” says Mr Rosen, the developer. “He’ll be back. He picked up the phone and people listen. Nobody can take that away from him.”‘

Same as with The Donald.

Comment by X-GSfixer
2009-05-03 15:27:59

And this is the so called “talent” that we as being told, is indespensible and vital to our ability to recover from the recession?

(suppresses gag reflex…)

Comment by waiting in_la
2009-05-03 21:12:04

+1

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Comment by In Raleigh
2009-05-03 05:55:30

http://lewrockwell.com/spl/colleges-flunk-economics.html

This article talks about how college tuitions are out of control. Colleges have gone crazy borrowing money to spend for buildings that aren’t really needed at all, or are too luxurious. Some colleges cost $50,000 per year with room and board!

Usually 1-2 colleges go out of business per year. The author predicts that number will rise greatly if the economy doesn’t recover within one year. One college mentioned had a $250,000 shortfall and had to lay off several employees simply because enrollment dropped by 6 students!

Is it true that in California, community colleges have to accept everyone that applies?

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 06:05:57

“Is it true that in California, community colleges have to accept everyone that applies?”

I am not sure. But having taught community college here back when I was a grad student, I would guess the answer is ‘yes.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2009-05-03 06:20:48

I mentioned the other day that I was an accounting tutor at a central Texas community college while I was studying for the CPA exam. I had a student who was struggling with a course called Advanced Accounting, which kind of wraps up all the finer details of high level topics like derivatives, etc. So I thought I’d meet with the professor. We were talking and I happened to ask what percentage of her class failed. She said, “well, none, that would be bad for their self-esteem.”

Comment by rms
2009-05-03 06:37:41

LMAO!

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Comment by Groundhogday
2009-05-03 07:26:36

It would be funnier if it weren’t true.

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2009-05-03 06:38:59

Bad self-esteem can be a very important thing to have. I am glad that I have bad self-esteem in the areas of medicine and engineering, otherwise I might remove the wrong part from somebody, or one of my bridges might collapse and send people plunging to their deaths. Lucky for many people that I have bad self-esteem in these areas.

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Comment by holytrainwreck
2009-05-03 07:26:38

Don’t remove THAT part, I might need it!

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 07:39:13

“well, none, that would be bad for their self-esteem.”

Not all community colleges operate that way. My baby sister teaches community college math, and I suspect some of her failed former students may suffer from self esteem issues, while those who work hard and pass her courses enjoy the benefit of high self esteem due to having tried and succeeded.

BTW, Ben, my sister was a high school mathematics teacher in Round Rock TX before she embarked on her community college teaching career.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 07:43:42

Ben –

You also reminded me of my worst-ever experience with grading. I was teaching college algebra at a St. Louis-area community college about 15 years ago. I took over a course for a teacher whose health was failing. One student in the course was on the brink of failing; he seldom came to class, showed little evidence of making much effort to learn the material, and failed every assignment and exam. I gave him an F for the course, but he failed to sue the department and the chair overturned my decision. (I won’t mention her gender, as that might start another blog gender war…)

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Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 07:54:02

failed threatened to sue

Recounting that incident made me see so much red that I could not type right…

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-03 10:20:48

but he threatened to sue the department and the chair overturned my decision.

What a candy-as*s chair you had. Disgraceful.
My aunt was on the school board of a high school in Provo, Utarr a couple years ago and they had a similar situation, they wouldn’t graduate a student and the parents came in threatening to sue, threatening to claim discrimination because they were Hispanic— and I am happy to report that the board and the school didn’t cave at ALL.
The response was, to paraphrase: “Where was all this interest in your student when the school sent home notice after notice, (bilingual), and called incessantly, (bilingual) trying to get your student to appear, and on the rare days he did appear, assist in his own education? And got absolutely no response? We aren’t even sure your kid can freakin’read, in any language. We will not give him a diploma, so sue away.”

They didn’t sue. Too bad, as I imagine it’d be pretty easy to prove the kid couldn’t read, and probably amusing as well to witness.

I wonder where the kid is now? Probably in jail, or else a realtor.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 11:10:16

“Probably in jail, or else a realtor.”

+100

 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-03 15:55:41

There is certainly no exaggeration to any of your stories. I’ve met many people who had degrees and I would have sworn they were lying. And maybe some of them were.

I once lost a job to someone who was supposed to have the proper credentials, yet who utterly and completely crippled the process/system he was supposed to be so good at, to the point where the process stopped and the company was going to lose it biggest customer. (eventually did) Even worse, management decided to keep them.

Never once did they call me back or resolve the problem.

“Dilbert” is real.

 
 
 
Comment by wolfgirl
2009-05-03 07:19:40

Classes at the local community college fill up quickly. Some were full within a few days of open registration. It really doesn’t matter if you get accepted if you can’t get the classes you need.

Comment by Professor Shays
2009-05-03 08:18:17

Yep. My business law class for the fall semester filled within 3 days of its opening. Still have seats in my foreclosure class. Actually I’m seeing a decrease in the fill rate for the foreclosure class. Yes, I knew that interest would fade eventually for this class that I created and started teaching in 2003 (when my crystal ball was telling me that the real estate market would eventually collapse), but I’m surprised that the interest is going down given that we have a ways to go before this market bottoms (I’ve been suggesting for a long time that we will see the market level in 2011 and stay flat for a long time).

Daniel

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Comment by WT Economist
2009-05-03 06:29:44

I’ve written to alma mater several times over the past 20 years, stating that they couldn’t keep raising tuition so far about the rate of income growth every year, and that parents of the status of my parents at the time couldn’t afford to send their kids there anymore. I’d give them a token contribution, but promise more if they would hold their increases to the rate of inflaton. No dice. As late as last summer they were justifying far greater increases.

They just didn’t get it. It went on so long (like the housing bubble years longer than I thought possible thanks to creative finance) that I guess they figured it could go on forever. More and more luxury class facilities. Fewer courses taught by each prof, so they could do more research. More and more non-teaching staff.

As I’ve mentioned, next year will be my older child’s senior year, so the college situation is certainly of interest. We’ve saved enough that we could afford the expensive schools without selling our children into debt slavery. But would be just be ripped off?

Public college and universities? Given the overall state of public finance, through which the shortsighted decisions of the past 25 years will be visited on those who did not make them, what will be the condition of public colleges and universities a year or two from now? In NY they raised the public college tuition, and then sucked all the money out of the colleges and into the general fund.

There is going to be a drastic change. I only hope it will occur in the next year so we can see what is it before making any decisions. And I hope my younger child will get through three years of high school before the public schools collapse.

Comment by palmetto
2009-05-03 06:50:49

This phenomenon is not just limited to education. It’s actually a sort of vicious spiral. For example, USPS. Fewer people mail stuff due to economic factors, so they raise rates. Now even fewer people mail stuff, so even less revenue comes in. So they raise rates. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Same with taxes and a lot of other stuff. Less income? Well, by cracky, let’s up the fees or costs. Which makes other customers fall off, causing a further drop in income.

Here in FL, we have insurance costs going up and taxes being geared to fantasy assessments. Fewer people buy.

Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-03 16:04:18

MBA 101.

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Comment by peter a
2009-05-03 07:10:39

“And I hope my younger child will get through three years of high school before the public schools collapse.”

I hope they collapse in alot of ways. They only teach to the test, if you ask to may questions the teachers hate you. The teacher are there for the pension they don’t give a dam about the students. The drop out rates are through the roof. All in all they provide a piss poor product that no one would buy in a free market. As schools are currently, there demise would benefit children immensely in my opinion. They are nothing but over priced baby sitters.

Comment by palmetto
2009-05-03 07:33:08

“As schools are currently, there demise would benefit children immensely in my opinion. They are nothing but over priced baby sitters.”

Amen, brothah! Many are just warehouses, or gang recruiting centers.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-03 10:27:38

Not all of ‘em. My mom now teaches school in rural Utarr, as did my gran, and they cared very much about their students and did everything they could to teach well and do right by the kids.

 
 
 
Comment by wolfgirl
2009-05-03 07:22:15

I’m just glad that my youngest has only one more year of college.

Comment by Shendi
2009-05-03 16:38:02

I’m glad that I don’t have any youngest

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Comment by Groundhogday
2009-05-03 07:37:31

“Fewer courses taught by each prof, so they could do more research.”

This simply isn’t true. What has happened is that over the past 30 years faculty numbers have remained flat while enrollments have grown nationwide. How? Adjuncts, larger classes, TA’s, etc… Faculty salaries have also remained flat relative to inflation.

So why have college costs skyrocketed? Two main items:
1) “student services” Universities have invested heavily in the “helicopter mom” approach to education, special services for every niche group, luxurious student unions and gyms, etc… Universities became Club Med where you could even take some classes on the side.
2) Administration. As has been well documented both the numbers and compensation for administrators have exploded relative to inflation and enrollments. Universities have adopted the corporate model, with “CEO’s” bouncing from job to job with fantastic bonuses and perks.

Facts from Washington State University:

1) Over 200 employees will be laid off as part of current budget cutting, with another 150+ vacant positions left unfilled. Weak academic units have been eliminated altogether, eliminating faculty, staff and professional positions (something I support). But not one administrator was cut even though that is the main area for growth over the past 30 years.

2) The division of student affairs, equity and diversity is facing a ~$1 million budget cut, 10% of the total budget. The TOTAL budget for the entire library system is $1 million. Maintaining a high quality social life for students is apparently more important than maintaining a library.

Comment by WT Economist
2009-05-03 08:09:02

“This simply isn’t true.” “Facts from Washington State University.”

You fail to distinguish the situation of the $50K per year private colleges I was talking about and public colleges, which have a whole different set of problems.

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Comment by Groundhogday
2009-05-04 14:46:46

The situation for private colleges is identical. Bloated admin costs, and even MORE money pumped into student services/campus “life.”

 
 
Comment by in Colorado
2009-05-03 08:15:58

#1 (student services) is so true. We visited a few schools with our graduating daughter earlier this year. Even the most podunky state schools have non academic facilities that just blew me away. The dorms (oops: residence halls) were simply luxurious. Same with the student unions and gyms. The cafeterias (oops: dining halls) had restaurant quality food and were quite luxurious as well.

Of course they charge at least 8K just for room and board alone, and all schools are requiring freshman to live on campus, even when they live within driving distance. I have also read that many students here in the Centennial state are opting for CC for their first two years, probably to skip the on campus living part.

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Comment by Lost in Utah
2009-05-03 10:25:19

I graduated high school 3rd in a class of over 300 and was voted most likely to succeed.

Went to Colorado State on a President’s scholarship, full ride.

Ended my freshman year kicked out of the dorms and with a 1.2 GPA. Dropped out (with a little encouragement).

As Joe Walsh would say, life’s been good to me. :)

 
Comment by X-GSfixer
2009-05-03 15:48:23

Bet you were one of those repressed evangelical rural/suburban girls, who went Ape-$hit when she finally got out on her own? :)

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-03 17:06:47

Bet you were one of those repressed evangelical rural/suburban girls, who went Ape-$hit when she finally got out on her own?

Hahahaha! And skipped around in the wilderness writing novels and digging up dinosaurs and filming great films and stuff.
Jeeze, man, what’s the world coming to? :)

 
Comment by Lost in Utah
2009-05-03 19:29:23

:)

I did go back to school, after a couple of years off…

but I’ve never lived up to the most likely to succeed part…unless you count having lots of dogs and free time as being successful, I dunno.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-03 19:59:17

…unless you count having lots of dogs and free time as being successful, I dunno.

A solid ‘A+’ fer you, missy.

Shoots, man! Is there another and more valid standard to be found?! No.
*flaps hand dismissively *

 
 
 
Comment by WT Economist
2009-05-03 13:54:07

Good news: In April 2009 (ie. very recently) Alma Mater formed a working group to “identify options that will return the University to financial equilibrium.”

They haven’t stopped being lemmings however:

“The working group should pay careful attention to similar efforts at other colleges and universities.”

The effort is “based on the expectation” that “primary revenue streams (net tuition, endowment spending and unrestricted annual fund contributions), which have enjoyed significant growth for an extended period of time, will increase at modest rates for the foreseeable future.”

That is, if you raise tuition 4% more than inflation every year (doubling it in real dollars ever 17.5) and inflation is zero, you can only raise tuition 4%,

 
 
 
Comment by WT Economist
2009-05-03 05:58:59

“Just wondering… Have we now figured out a way for consumers and businesses to spen 110% of their income, forever, without ever having to pay on or for any of the debt?????”

There was a discussion of the NYC subway, run by the regional MTA, yesterday.

In 1995 the subway fare was $1.50, but since there have been so many free transfer, discount and unlimited ride deals created that the fare is far lower even though the base fare is $2.00.

There was a big pension enhancement in 2000.

Mayor Giuliani and Governor Pataki cut off tax funding for the MTA in the mid-1990s in order to cut taxes without imposing service cuts in an agency they were responsible for.

The MTA was ordered to borrow money to make up the difference. But because the money was borrowed, it didn’t hurt anyone to pay it, so cost controls on influential construction contractors weakened.

The MTA is broke. So are transit agencies throughout the country. So are other local governments.

Subprime public finance, courtesy of Generation Greed.

Comment by darrell_in_phx
2009-05-03 06:29:38

Everyone wants the services, but no one wants to pay the taxes!

Here in AZ, the Republicans in the house and senate proposed their plan for fixing the $3 billion deficit.

The governor’s plan is is $1 billion from Obama stimulus, $1 billion in cuts, and $1 billion new taxes. Despite being a Republican, the new governor is being crucified by fellow Republicans for suggesting a tax increase. They are trying to push through new tax cuts….

Their plan? $1 billion stimulus money. Pretend $1 billion in spending cuts is really $700 billion by sweeping up all carry forward funds. (in effect, end next fiscal year with $0 balance in every government account)…. and sweep up $200 million developer impact fees from cities and counties (a plan that will surely be defeated in the courts).

But wait… that is still $700-800 billion short (really more than $1 billion when the fund sweeps don’t work). What about that deficit?

Oh, let’s just ignore that and borrow the money.

That is the Republican plan???????

Tax and spend Dems vs. Borrow and Spend Reps…..

Comment by holytrainwreck
2009-05-03 07:29:26

And of course nobody trusts the government to spend properly, hence the vicious spiral continues downward until the beast is starved.

 
Comment by jeff saturday
2009-05-03 07:41:42

PBS Print Borrow and Spend

I don`t mind paying for services or goods. I just don`t want to pay way too much. That is how I found this blog, I didn`t want to pay way too much for a house so I started searching for reasons for the rapid price appreciation in house prices. When I look for where all the tax money went from the inflated house prices it`s not hard to find either.

Fla. Fire/EMS overtime raises alarms
By Deana Poole
Palm Beach Post
Copyright 2007 The Palm Beach Newspapers, Inc.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — Chief Herman Brice may be the top boss at Palm Beach County Fire-Rescue, but he didn’t bring home the biggest paycheck last year.

Overtime payouts — some totaling more than $50,000 each — helped boost the paychecks of hundreds of fire-rescue workers, according to payroll records.

One captain alone, who has been with fire-rescue for 24 years, collected more than $125,000 in overtime during the last two years.

Officials argue it’s cheaper to pay overtime than hire more people.

But the overtime payments not only boost employee paychecks now, they can increase employee retirement benefits — a cost taxpayers will continue to pay over the long run.

The Palm Beach Post analyzed payroll records of county employees during the two most recent budget years, 2005-06 and 2006-07. The analysis did not include employees of constitutional officers, such as the sheriff and tax collector.

Among the findings:

* About 215 fire-rescue workers were each paid more than $10,000 in overtime last year.

* Overtime helped several fire-rescue employees rival or exceed the pay of Brice, who made about $172,000 last year.

* In many cases, the overtime helped workers earn more than $100,000 last year.

I am not trying to pick on Fireman, but 2 days on 2 days off, most of them have second jobs beyond the overtime. I also know it can be dangerous and I don`t have any stats to back it up, but I am willing to bet there are 5 construction workers killed for every fireman and for the most part the construction workers benefits are his or her next job.

Comment by in Colorado
2009-05-03 08:20:39

There is a good reason why the waiting list to be a paid firefighter where I live is so long and why guys do volunteer FF work for years to get a chance to grab the brass ring. Every paid firefighter that I know is sitting very pretty.

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Comment by jeff saturday
2009-05-03 08:27:27

From Muggy

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/ny-liteac1812665687apr18,0,2413215.story

“One of those teachers, who has taught science in Central Islip since 1967… In addition to his teaching salary last year of $146,587, he also received $55,455 in stipends for coaching three swim teams and supervising a summer Learn to Swim Program.”

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Comment by in Colorado
2009-05-03 10:33:05

My sis make 40K per year as a teacher in North Carolina.

 
Comment by jeff saturday
2009-05-03 11:15:41

Cashing out: Unused sick time and vacations turning costly in South Florida

By Jennifer Gollan

South Florida Sun-Sentinel

Sunday, May 03, 2009

A former military man with a strong work ethic, C. William Hargett Jr. seldom took a sick or vacation day in more than 12 years as Pompano Beach city manager. When he retired in 2007, the city had to pay him $144,611.85 for 1,540 hours in unused time.

Hargett defended the city’s accrued time policy as a way to encourage good attendance and attract top talent.

Although Pompano Beach now faces a $4 million revenue shortfall, “when we did this deal, it was not 2009 and an economic recession,” he said. “That was what we agreed to.”

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2009-05-03 13:03:26

I really dont have a problem with this since I am pretty much the same at work, I am not good at doing hour lunches or vacations…so why not cash out when you leave?

——————————————
Hargett defended the city’s accrued time policy as a way to encourage good attendance and attract top talent.

 
Comment by jeff saturday
2009-05-03 13:09:04

“Hargett defended the city’s accrued time policy as a way to encourage good attendance and attract top talent.”

What kind of talent did they attract if

“Pompano Beach now faces a $4 million revenue shortfall”

 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-03 16:13:44

What kind of talent? Why the usual kind, of course! Paid for FAIL!

 
Comment by jeff saturday
2009-05-03 18:26:51

Sheriff says he needs $35.6 million more to cover office’s costs
By JENNIFER SORENTRUE

Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Thursday, May 01, 2008

With Palm Beach County commissioners facing their worst budget crunch in recent history, Sheriff Ric Bradshaw said Thursday that he will need an additional $35.6 million from them to run his office next year.

Most of the money is needed just to cover the increasing costs of salaries, benefits and health insurance, much of which is mandated by a union contract. Bradshaw’s $457.8 million budget proposal, a 9.6 percent increase from this year, does not include money for any new sheriff’s deputies.

“This budget reflects just what it takes to run the agency,” he said. “There is no growth in the law enforcement area.”

County budget officials had projected Bradshaw would ask for an additional $40 million in tax money next year, but the sheriff’s office is raising fees to offset $4.4 million of that increase.

County Administrator Bob Weisman said he is pleased that Bradshaw’s request is slightly lower than expected. But as voter-mandated property tax cuts continue to cap the county’s revenues each year, Weisman warned, it will become increasingly difficult for commissioners to continue to pay for large increases in the sheriff’s budget.

 
Comment by jeff saturday
2009-05-03 19:42:23

Palm Beach County Commissioner McCarty pleads guilty to federal corruption
Brian Haas, Sun-Sentinel
Friday, March 27, 2009

Former Palm Beach County Commissioner Mary McCarty teared up as her husband was sentenced to eight months in prison Friday for not reporting her crime.

But through those tears came a smile. His sentence was less harsh than expected.

McCarty, 54, probably won’t face such a lenient sentence, her attorney said. She pleaded guilty earlier in the day to conspiring to commit honest services fraud, admitting she illegally benefited from her position as a Palm Beach County commissioner. She will be sentenced June 4 and could face up to five years in prison, the third county commissioner in recent years to plead guilty to federal corruption.

Assistant U.S. Attorney John Kastrenakes listed what McCarty did, raising three key points: She voted to approve about a dozen county bond projects underwritten by her husband’s employers; she influenced the awarding of Delray Beach bond work to her husband’s employer; and she got free and greatly reduced hotel stays provided by Delray Beach-based Ocean Properties, which had business with the county.

In all, prosecutors say the couple made nearly $300,000 from the deals. Kastrenakes said McCarty conspired with former County Commissioner Warren Newell to hide their relationship with Ocean Properties. Newell is serving a five-year prison sentence for public corruption. The prosecutor said McCarty also “made materially false statements” to federal investigators about her relationship with the hotel chain.

 
Comment by jeff saturday
2009-05-03 20:02:09

Masilotti gets five years
By TOM DUBOCQ

Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Saturday, June 30, 2007

WEST PALM BEACH — “I am truly sorry. It’s my fault. I accept full responsibility.”

Soft as a whisper, a hunched and humbled Tony Masilotti apologized to a federal judge Friday who sentenced him to five years in prison. His crime: betraying the public’s trust for more than $9 million in cash and real estate during his eight years as a Palm Beach County commissioner.

 
 
Comment by DennisN
2009-05-03 11:18:13
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Comment by jeff saturday
2009-05-03 12:34:10

Thank you

 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-03 16:17:35

Good find.

 
Comment by jeff saturday
2009-05-03 20:13:38

“Everyone wants the services, but no one wants to pay the taxes!”

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 05:59:59

The Anniston Star
Op-Ed Columns
H. Brandt Ayers:
Cheer for Wall Street
05-03-2009

Isn’t anybody standing up for the good guys on Wall Street? Nobody? Well, if that’s the way it is, I guess I’m man enough to offer a word of solace for at least one beleaguered soul.

I’m serious. I think Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis is getting a raw deal from investors, the Congress and the media. Besides, he works in Charlotte, whose streets were not golden the last time I looked.

Stockholders Wednesday voted to keep him as CEO and president but to strip him of his chairmanship by a spiteful, paper-thin majority of 34/100s of a percent.

Ken Lewis … was being screamed at by Congress and investors for something that wasn’t his fault. Mr. Lewis is on the golden hot seat because of the merger with Merrill Lynch.

It turns out that when the bank and the brokerage were about to repeat their marriage vows, it was learned Merrill had a false bottom that contained even more toxic loans than the bank first thought.

Lewis would have preferred to leave Merrill at the altar but was persuaded by then-Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that either disclosing the scale of Merrill’s toxic assets or allowing the collapse of the firm would create a panic.

As The Wall Street Journal first reported, Paulson told Lewis that failure to consummate the marriage in silence about the bride’s dark past would ultimately cost him and his board their jobs. The gods on Olympus twist arms, too.

(For local readers, please be assured that the folks in the little Merrill office on South Quintard wouldn’t get within smelling distance of a toxic asset. They are angry, too, about a few people in a distant unit who caused all the trouble.)

Since the merger, lawmakers and investors have vilified Lewis. One company from Houston with an odd name, Finger Interests, is suing and led an effort to fire him.

Happily, BoA seems to have digested Merrill and even made a profit the first quarter. It may be on its way back to solid profitability so it can continue good works such as its $200,000 to selected “neighborhood builders.”

Comment by tresho
2009-05-03 13:49:34

Those “spiteful” stockholders pretty much endorsed the conduct of the BofA board of directors and its participation in the charade of bailing out Merrill Lynch, by re-electing them.

 
Comment by X-GSfixer
2009-05-03 15:59:40

Like Polly and I have noted: When presented this ultimatum, he should have cancelled the purchase of Merrill Lynch, and resigned. His company and it’s shareholders would have been better off. Why should BOA, it’s employees and shareholders take a bullet for Paulson or Bernanke?

BOA could have been above this mess, with a more solid balance sheet, and the strength to help pick up the pieces when this mess finally collapsed. Instead, they are a$$-deep involved like all the other WS pigmen.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 06:09:17

Lessons unlearned
The Depression taught us how not to do things – what happened?
By Emmet Pierce
Union-Tribune Staff Writer

2:00 a.m. May 3, 2009
Left: Recent foreclosure sales were foreshadowed by those of the Great Depression. This photo was taken in Iowa, circa 1933. (Franklin D. Roosevelt Library); Right: Thousands of San Diego County homes like this one in Spring Valley were reclaimed after the housing boom ended. (Howard Lipin / Union-Tribune) -

America’s lenders could have avoided the mistakes that caused the current mortgage market meltdown if only they had heeded the lessons of the nation’s biggest financial calamity, the Great Depression.

Today’s housing market slump was triggered by the widespread use of heavily leveraged home loans that could not be sustained without short-term refinancing. The same risky strategy was used in the years leading up to the Depression, analysts say.

As the home loan failures dragged down the economy in the 1930s, Americans found themselves struggling to make ends meet. Then, as now, hundreds of thousands of people lost their homes to foreclosure when property values dropped as credit tightened.

“There are a lot of similarities,” said Dean Baker, an economist with the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington. “The basic principals are very much the same.”

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 06:22:22

Some of the SD-Union Tribune staff writers appear to be in the reconciliation phase of the housing bubble stages of grief. Thanks for sharing.

 
Comment by combotechie
2009-05-03 07:07:30

“America’s lenders could have avoided the mistakes that caused the current mortgage market meltdown if only they had heeded the lessons of the nation’s biggest financial calamity, the Great Depression.”

Lenders who didn’t lose their minds along with everyone else during this mania eventually lost their jobs as potential borrowers went elsewhere.

Un-natural selection at work.

Comment by measton
2009-05-03 19:14:53

America’s lenders could have avoided the mistakes that caused the current mortgage market meltdown if only they had heeded the lessons of the nation’s biggest financial calamity, the Great Depression.”

In their mind they learned their lesson with honors ie they created a FED that would bail them out and bought Congress.

Comment by packman
2009-05-03 19:55:48

Good point - one of the greatest problemsn, if note THE greatest problem, of government action is that if the problem goes away after the action is taken, it is assumed that the action worked and/or can be reapplied successfully to similar situations in the future. That in itself increases the financial risk; the underlying assumption that it really is “different this time” - surely the government/Fed learned its lesson before and wouldn’t let a meltdown happen again would they? The very bad assumption encourages yet more excessive risk taking, which exacerbates the problem.

Instead we need this method:

Patient: “Doctor it hurts when I do this. What do you recommend?”

Doctor: “Don’t do that.”

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Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 07:56:02

A pundit from back East shares his precious insight:

Lenders “were basically selling that this is how you can buy a home in San Diego that is worth 10 times what you make,” said Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies … “It was a little bit like a Ponzi scheme.”

 
 
Comment by bluprint
2009-05-03 06:09:39

I moved into the city yesterday (and it rained all day). We hired movers to help out. I’ve never done that before, but MAN are they helpful. They got their (loaded) truck stuck in my yard. Cut ruts a foot deep and snapped the wench cable on the first wrecker trying to get it out. Had to bring in one of those wreckers they use for 18 wheelers to get it out.

But the FUN thing that happened this weekend was something my MIL told me. She was helping us move and told story about a piece of land in their neighborhood for sale. The neighborhood they live in is a middle to upper-middle class one. She says this is a 1 acre lot on a fairly steep hill. Couple years ago she says it would have sold for 75k, sold at auction recently for 17k. That literally made me stop what I was doing and smile.

I asked her if there were any others for sale. She said yes, there are a couple.

I asked how much. She said, “60 70 thousand.” I asked how long they have been for sale. She looked at me all solemn-like and said, “a long time.” I smiled back and said, “At those price, they’ll be for sale a while longer.”

Music to my ears.

Comment by palmetto
2009-05-03 06:44:22

“They got their (loaded) truck stuck in my yard. Cut ruts a foot deep and snapped the wench cable on the first wrecker trying to get it out. Had to bring in one of those wreckers they use for 18 wheelers to get it out.”

LOL. I hate “yahoo” woikers. I recently brought my car to a local mechanic, who ordinarily does good work for me, to have the door handle fixed. He’s hired a new (yahoo) guy, who examined the door handle, gave me a price, and then started messing with another door handle. He popped the child-safety lock, slammed the door, now it won’t open from the inside and outside. He laughed like a freakin’ hyena, shrugged, and his boss told me to take it to the dealer. YAHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Comment by bluprint
2009-05-03 13:35:17

I should say, actually the movers were pretty good. It was wet and cold and we sat for 3 hours while the truck was stuck. Getting it stuck was the one blunder…but it worked out.

Overall I was pretty pleased.

 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-03 09:13:49

Nice anecdote, blu. And I hope you enjoy your new digs.

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-03 09:43:46

Also, what city was this you moved to, may I ask?
I am watching a great many undeveloped lots in Olympia proper and in the rural Thurston county sit and sit and sit, priced at 2006 prices, the seller too stubborn or too stupid to lower the price, would rather just sit and wish away…
I hope for capitulation this year.
There are some areas that would be good candidates for conservation efforts, now that the increased difficulty of developing a wetland or other sort of critical-area laden plot does not bring the profit it used to. I mean, you have to hire consultants to lie and say those aren’t streams and/or wetlands, and that’s not hydric soil and that’s not a steep slope, etc etc. Those pro*stitutes cost a lot, you know. It’s just not so much worth it anymore…
*happy sigh *

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-03 10:35:34

Although it’s too late for a lot of land—man, I still get wild with rage every single time I drive by the seeping leprotic chancre termed ‘College Station’ over off Mud Bay Road. Man, that pis*ses me off. A beautiful forest, so beautiful, 60 acres of 120′+ tall firs and grand old maples, lots of wildlife…now it’s a clear-cut mud barren with patchy weeds, starting to grow up with scotch-broom and thistle amid the few pvc pipes sticking up here and there. I sincerely wish the DRWh*oreton minions who killed this forest could be lined up and systematically thrown in the ugly, muddy stormwater retention ponds. (Which, by the way, it turns out don’t work too well after all at managing massive amounts of rain. Fancy that. Although I’m positive they’d work well enough for submerging DRWH*oreton minions for the necessary amount of time.)

*takes a brief minute to contemplate this delightful fantasy *

But I cheer up when I drive down Delphi valley and out where I live. I remind myself, they didn’t get it all. There’s still lots of forest and farmland left.
And, joy of joys, thanks to the bubble popping, it’ll likely not get developed for a lonnnnng time…
*another happy sigh *

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Comment by waiting wipeout
2009-05-03 20:43:22

Oly Gal-
Wow, you live in paradise! I am a tree person myself. Nothing compares to Mother Nature, God’s art, provided for us to enjoy and protect. (The h*ll with organized religion). What Horton did to the forrest just pisses me off too. I agree about lining them up and…

 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-03 12:11:53

And speaking of Olympia, I just found this gem:
(from today’s Seattle P.I.)

‘Real estate agents learn to handle short sales’
http://tinyurl.com/cemzod

…”That’s where the market’s going,” said Kathy Holt, an agent with Greene Realty, in Olympia.
Short sales and lender-owned homes now account for about 35 percent of listings in Thurston County, Holt estimated. “They’re coming up every day in large numbers, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s even larger than that.”….

Barbara Lopes, a Bellevue RE/Max agent, said she has never handled a short sale in her approximately 30 years in the business. “There was no need,” she said. “It was a whole different market.” But they’re probably going to be an important part of the market for a while yet, Lopes said. “It’s going to take a long time to recover.”

Soooo…does this mean we aren’t ‘different’ here? Really?

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Comment by bluprint
2009-05-03 14:45:47

Moved to Little Rock, Arkansas. Moved from Bryant, Arkansas. Technically we didn’t live in Bryant city limites, but there is a little piece of land between the house and the road (which is owned by someone else and which has an easement for the driveway) where Bryant starts. The address was Alexander, AR.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-03 17:30:46

Thanks. When I speak to you this helps me situate you inside my head, and also assists my positive wishes to locate you, there where you are. :)

 
Comment by bluprint
2009-05-03 18:40:05

Well, if it helps I live within walkng distance of this shopping center.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-03 20:01:35

*immediately spits out joint *

No! That DOESN’T help. Jeeze. You know what, I can’t wait until you get you and your family back out into the country. Into a non-moldy blu-built house, of course.
I’m gonna count the days.

 
 
 
Comment by bluprint
2009-05-03 10:30:07

The place we were staying belonged to my wifes grandparents. It is an old house in disrepair. Before we moved in, I had to fix a hole in the floor. I did a patch job b/c we were in a hurry, but several of the floor joists need to be replaced as well as the floors and a the walls around one bathroom (at minimum the base plates are rotted).

Anyway, it was a drafty, kinda moldy house. Heater broke a couple months ago (I haven’t had it looked at or fixed), there were some weird plumbing issues…

BUT the rent was cheap ($0) and it was on a beautiful 40 acres 20 minutes from downtown Little Rock, so a very easy commute to work.

So, we stayed there a year and mostly enjoyed it. It was kind of an adventurous thing with the house. Heater didn’t work so well, nor did the A/C (hot arkansas summers) but I figure what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. It’s kinda like we got closer to nature…

So then we found out baby is on the way, and we can’t really stay there anymore. If nothing else, the moldy smell proly ain’t good for some little lungs. So now we’re in the city, tiny lot, big nice house. In a few years I’ll build a house out in the country where the kid can go out and play and be safe.

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-03 12:19:58

there were some weird plumbing issues…

I feeeeel the sympathy. Man, my house was apparently built by some hippie who put on some cut-offs, bought a 24 pack, and decided to build hisself a vacation home in the woods. I won’t go into the details—it would take a while—but a year or so ago I decided to look inside a wall, mostly because I had the tools in my hands and my eye fell upon the wall, just to see what was in there, and you know what was in there? What certainly looked like a Safeway pallet. (I don’t think it was structural, at least). So I looked at this marvel for a long moment, wondered if I should track down and ki*ll the original hippie builder*, and then nailed it back on and briskly walked away.

*Not the first time I’ve wondered that by a LONG shot. :)

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-03 12:23:35

It was kind of an adventurous thing with the house.

Ummmm…yeah. I always attempt to look at it that way, too.
Hahahaha!
It’s either that, or go lookin’ for the hippie…

 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-03 12:21:34

In a few years I’ll build a house out in the country where the kid can go out and play and be safe.

An excellent plan! Country life is where it’s at! (At least I think so. :) )

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Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-05-03 12:48:37

Oly,

I couldn’t resist this little ditty from television:

Green Acres is the place to be
Farm livin’ is the life for me
Land spreadin’ out so far and wide
Keep Manhattan, just give me that countryside

New York is where I’d rather stay
I get allergic smelling hay
I just adore a penthouse view
Darling I love you but give me Park Avenue

The chores, the stores
Fresh air, Times Square

You are my wife
Good bye city life
Green Acres we are there

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-03 15:51:33

Lovely. I think I hear an angel singing…
:)

 
 
 
 
Comment by exeter
2009-05-03 10:26:13

“Had to bring in one of those wreckers they use for 18 wheelers to get it out”

I had to call in 3 of those wreckers to right a concrete truck that rolled off a temporary ramp. It had 10CY concrete in the barrel…. The teamster was shaking so bad the DE state police sent in a helicopter to airlift him to the hospital.

Comment by bluprint
2009-05-03 14:43:07

I’ve never seen one up close although I was aware they existed. The first wrecker guy, I asked him if he thought we could get it out. He sounded overly confident that we could with a “bigger truck.”

Later I was at the end of the driveway to flag down the new wrecker, wondering what constitutes a “bigger truck.” I was very skeptical, this thing was stuck. Then I saw the front end of a tractor come over the hill, and I knew what it was. I got a bit excited I must admit.

It pulled that truck out like it wasn’t even stuck. I was thoroughly impressed.

Comment by bluprint
2009-05-03 14:49:23

And I should add there was a distinct difference between the first wrecker driver and the second.

The first guy, he was a typical wrecker guy. In this case, he looked youngish (40s) but had a few too many teeth missing, like maybe he was a former meth head or something.

Second guy you could tell right away was a professional. Very precise, planned ahead. He only pulled on it once.

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Comment by darrell_in_phx
2009-05-03 06:20:47

Late yesterday, Bananarepublic said this:

“Now that I am taking a serious look at properties in AZ and CO I can tell you there is something wrong with Case-Shiller’s data. At least it appears that way. I saved “For Sale” magazines from 2005 and 2006 for the Denver area, and I do not see any drops like what CS is saying are going on. In fact, I see the same thing in AZ, to a degree as well. In fact, if you remove the short sale listings from the mix (that haven’t been lender approved) there is almost no difference in price,”

Dude, I don’t know what areas you are looking, but Case-Shiller is an average for a metro. I’m in a pretty much “median”, maybe slightly below neighborhood.

2-3 years ago houses were selling for north of $250K, and now they are selling for under $150K.

Condos are seeing even worse. Condos that had been above $150K are now regularly going for $50K-$70K.

Just because the $1 million+ houses are still listed, but not selling, does not mean Case-Shiller is wrong.

FORECLOSURES, not MLS, IS THE MARKET NOW!

Looking at recent transactions for my zip at azcentral….

5012 W EVANS DR
GLENDALE, AZ 85306
03/25/2009 SMITH, ELISABETH M $102,000
08/20/2004 $156,000
05/20/2002 $138,200

5256 W HEARN RD
GLENDALE, AZ 85306
03/25/2009 DIETER, DONALD $102,000
11/26/2007 $235,000
12/15/2004 $151,900

5414 W PORT AU PRINCE LN
GLENDALE, AZ 85306
03/25/2009 SCOTT, WILLIAM V & BEVERLY A $160,000
08/26/2005 $275,000

6503 W GRANDVIEW RD
GLENDALE, AZ 85306
03/18/2009 BAHJET, KUSAY $93,000
05/20/2004 $129,000

16245 N 63RD DR
GLENDALE, AZ 85306
03/18/2009 VOLKMAN, DONALD G & CAROL J $95,000
04/10/2006 $225,000
05/26/2005 $169,000
07/24/2002 $117,000

16239 N 43RD DR
GLENDALE, AZ 85306
03/18/2009 YOUNAN, AL $109,650
05/20/2004 $145,000

6013 W MONTE CRISTO AVE
GLENDALE, AZ 85306
03/18/2009 BANDA, GILBERT & KAY $202,000
06/20/2005 $282,000

4803 W ACOMA DR
GLENDALE, AZ 85306
03/11/2009 TESKEY, JEFFREY A & KELLIE K $92,000
04/07/2005 $210,000

5019 W EVANS DR
GLENDALE, AZ 85306
03/11/2009 MCFARLAND, SARAH $93,000
11/14/2005 $200,000

This isn’t hunting and pecking for data. This is 9 of the last 10 posted transactions…. the 10th not having a bubble price to compare to.

If I wanted to hunt and peck….

5253 W MAUNA LOA LN
GLENDALE, AZ 85306
03/05/2009 ADAMS, STEVE $55,000
11/06/2006 $192,000
04/21/2005 $165,000
04/23/2002 $83,469

14038 N 48TH AVE
GLENDALE, AZ 85306
02/19/2009 MCFADDEN, BRETT $34,000
03/28/2006 $195,000
09/09/2003 $106,500

6112 W NANCY RD
GLENDALE, AZ 85306
02/19/2009 AYRES, JASON $79,900
09/02/2005 $214,000

14610 N 52ND LN
GLENDALE, AZ 85306
01/15/2009 CHEMELLO, JOE & ANITA $52,000
06/11/2007 $169,500
06/30/2006 $170,000
08/23/2002 $103,000
05/29/2002 $86,000

13841 N 49TH AVE
GLENDALE, AZ 85306
12/31/2008 SHARP, FRANCES $55,200
08/18/2005 $158,000

13841 N 49TH AVE
GLENDALE, AZ 85306
12/31/2008 SHARP, FRANCES $55,200
08/18/2005 $158,000
07/05/2005 $129,000

If you are looking at anything other than foreclosure auctions, you are missing this market!

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 06:38:03

‘Dude, I don’t know what areas you are looking, but Case-Shiller is an average for a metro. I’m in a pretty much “median”, maybe slightly below neighborhood.’

Yes and no.

- It is an “average” in the sense that it takes into consideration homes selling over an entire metropolitan area at each point in time.

- But it is not an “average” in the sense of adding up the prices of all homes that sold and dividing by the number of homes that sold; rather it is an index of prices, which only provides meaningful information when compared to its own level at a different point in time.

For instance, if you look up the CS-S&P index level as of January 2000 for any of the included cities, you will see the value is 100 for each of them. This normalization allows immediate comparison of market values as of January 2000 to those at any preceding or subsequent point in time. If a subsequent level of the index is, say, 273.94 (like it was for San Diego as of Sept 2006), one can infer that the “typical home” was selling for “about” 173.94 percent higher, or 2.7 times as high, compared to prices as of January 2000.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 06:51:07

APOLOGIES!

The 273.94 number I picked up was for LA, not SD (I read the wrong column off the S&P-CS spreadsheet). Substitute LA for SD to get the proper interpretation of the above.

Now that I have my eyeballs properly screwed in, it appears the peak for SD compares to the previous trough level as follows:

Post-1990s housing bust nadir (March 1996) = 71.22
Housing bubble peak (November 2005) = 250.34

San Diego prices at housing bubble peak as a multiple of levels at previous trough (March 1996 - November 2005):

250.34/71.22 = 3.5 times as high over less than ten years!!!

Percentage increase in San Diego prices over the course of the housing bubble:

(250.34/71.22-1)*100 = 251.5 percent gain

Average annualized percentage gain in prices for San Diego from March 1996 through November 2005 (taking into consideration 116 months elapsed over the period):

((250.34/71.22)^(12/116)-1)*100 = 13.9 pct.

It was a nice ride, while it lasted…

 
Comment by darrell_in_phx
2009-05-03 07:17:20

Yes, yes… I understand it is an index…. I was skipping over that to get to the data.

My point was that he should ignore the “MLS ask price” and look at the actual transactions.

Some neighborhoods are still locked tight with nothing moving because the banks are not yet liquidating their foreclosures. Other areas are seeing very high transaction rates at prices more than 50% off peak, as banks are liquidating their foreclosures.

I think Case-Shiller is spot-on, based on transactions not list prices.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 07:31:34

More S&P/Case-Shiller comparisons, which may help explain why some Californians still believe in their heart of hearts that real estate always goes up, in the long run:

SD S&P/CS Index levels and (all US) CPI-U for:

Date S&P/CS CPI-U
Jan 1987 54.67 111.2
Nov 2005 250.34 197.6
Dec 2008 152.16 210.228

Changes from Jan 1987 through Nov 2005 (multiple of initial level):

San Diego home price increase = 250.34/54.67 = 4.58-fold

US Inflation (measured by CPI-U) = 197.6/111.2 = 1.78-fold

Percentage excess of San Diego home price gain over inflation:

((250.34/197.6)/(54.67/111.2)-1)*100 = 157.7 percent.

Inflation-adjusted (”real”) drop in San Diego home prices from Nov 2005 through Dec 2008:

((152.16/210.228)/(250.34/197.6)-1)*100 = -42.9 percent.

Interpretations:

- A “typical” San Diegan who bought a home in January 1987 and owned it through November 2005 would have added roughly 1 1/2 (150 percent) times its value to their permanent income over the period.

- The drop in real home prices after the bubble peak through Dec 2008 was sufficient to wipe out the latest preceding gain in real values of (100/(100-42.9)-1)*100 = 75 percent, about 1/2 the full inflation-adjusted gain from Jan 1987 through the bubble peak.

- San Diego home owners who bought in Jan 1987 and held still enjoyed a net home equity wealth effect equal to roughly 75 percent of the initial values of their homes.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 11:17:04

I can’t get over those San Diego S&P/C-S numbers. Here are a few more thoughts:

1) Though there are no index values pre-Jan 1987, I find the 150 pct real (inflation-adjusted) increase in San Diego home values concurrent with AG’s tenure as Fed chairman quite revelatory.

2) It took only three years (2005-2008) for 1/2 of the inflation-adjusted gains in San Diego home prices that were slowly accumulated over the prior 18 years (1987-2005) to evaporate. With the economy headed toward double-digit unemployment, NODs getting delivered at record levels, and glut of foreclosures already clogging used home inventories, and myriad vacant homes in shadow inventory waiting to either ride the market crash all the way to the bottom or to get added to the inventory pyre, I am deeply impressed that top policymakers seem to hold on to their so-far misplaced belief that they will restart housing price inflation any day now.

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Comment by packman
2009-05-03 18:09:35

PB - keep in mind the numbers went down quite a bit in the 1990-1997 period, back pretty much to inflation-adjusted norms. The main price gains were from 1997-2005 (9-year period). This is true nationwide but especially in SD, which experienced quite a drop in the early 90’s due mainly to Clinton’s military cutbacks (I would imagine, since SD has a huge naval base which contributes a lot to the local economy).

 
 
 
 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2009-05-03 06:44:48

Banana, there’s a night-and-day difference between Pheonix and Denver according to Case-Schiller.

For Phoenix, the CS index peaked at 227 and is now 111. That’s more than 50% off.

For Denver, the CS index peaked at 140 and is now 120. That’s a bit less than 15% off.

Comment by in Colorado
2009-05-03 08:31:17

In Denver, YMMV by neighborhood. Even up north in Larimer County we are seeing record levels of foreclosures and at the same time there are neighborhoods in Ft. Collins that have continued to appreciate and where houses still sell in just a few days with multiple offers. What makes the Ft. Collins situation even harder to believe is that the quality employers (HP, Intel, Avago, Advanced Energy, the City, the County and Colorado State U) are either not hiring, laying people off and are cutting survivors wages to boot! So who the heck is bidding up the houses? Are they newly hired Federal gov’t employees?

Comment by crash1
2009-05-03 10:45:31

Colorado, I’m in the town north of you on 287. This place is folding fast, but home prices are still increasing and homes are still selling. I don’t get it either.

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Comment by bananarepublic
2009-05-04 12:31:36

“Banana, there’s a night-and-day difference between Pheonix and Denver according to Case-Schiller.”

Bill you touched on another good point. Prices in a lot of places I looked at in the Denver area doubled easily between 2000 and 2005, yet CS shows only a modest rise over that same period. There are no places I can find that are back to 2001 prices in this area. So the Denver area only counts for very low end stuff. You move up the ladder and pricing, at least to me, is stuck at 2005/2006 levels.

Maybe I was harsh when I said CS data was worthless, but it just isn’t relevant for the areas I am looking at.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 06:53:47

Important questions:

1) How does the S&P/Case-Shiller index take into consideration foreclosure auction prices?

2) Given that foreclosure auction prices may be closer to “wholesale” rather than “retail” prices, should they be treated the same?

Comment by packman
2009-05-03 18:12:49

Dang good questions both, and the latter would be very tough to answer. It would make sense to include foreclosures since they are now such a high percentage of actual sales. However you’re right that foreclosure typically are “wholesale” - not so much in the avoidance of a middleman (many still use RE agents, though at cut rates), but because so many are just trashed. Even on same-home sales it’s not really an apples-to-apples comparison if the house has been trashed by the previous owner and/or rental tenant.

 
 
Comment by Sarah
2009-05-03 07:03:17

No one pays list anymore. Why is he looking at list prices in a homes magazine? Also, because of costs, homes only get listed in homes magazines if they have problems selling. They pretty much died in 2005 along with home shows of properties for sale, back when properties sold in 10 days or less. Now they are coming back and replacing the flipping shows. At least the flipping shows had entertainment value. In my favorite Denver neighborhoods, homes are selling for 10%-25% off peak. The best deals are in one million dollar plus properties. They built several spec million dollar houses (crazy as it seems). Builders have been sitting on them months if not a year or more, and because conditions are getting worse, they have to cut 30% or more from original list to sell.

Comment by Tim
2009-05-03 07:15:46

Agreed. If you are going to get serious about a neighborhood. You need to look at all sales in the last 10 years, take all the repeat solds and extrapolate. Then we can have an intelligent discussion regarding price trends. List prices in a dead market are meaningless. Case Shiller numbers are ok for a quick down and dirty if you dont have the time or resources to do it right, but if you are going to actually consider buying, why not do it right? Doing it right is difficult because you have to actually take into account substantial renovations which a mere computer generation of numbers will not address correctly.

Comment by bananarepublic
2009-05-04 12:36:02

Agreed 100% Tim. I have been looking at the county assessors site and it helps a lot, but there are still significant changes that make this data only so useful. You have to get your hands dirty.

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Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-05-03 09:53:04

Yeah those glossy realtor magazines list the same prices, in general, as in 2005 and 2006 - in Phoenix. Only a fool would buy at the prices in those magazines.

 
 
Comment by bananarepublic
2009-05-04 12:14:46

Thanks for the reply and data Darrell. I think you hit it on the head when you said a slightly below neighborhood. I think the numbers make a lot more sense in that part of the market, but there is a major disconnect in more desirable areas. And that was my point about CS being worthless. For the areas I am looking at, they are. If I focus on just the lower end, I can see a lot more relevance, but I was under the impression that CS would be more useful than the reported median, but it isn’t. I was really hoping that CS would provide an additional perspective, but I just don’t see it being that useful. I have 2 charts on my wall, and print them out religiously the last Tuesday of the month. So I follow the data pretty closely. But I just don’t see the connection between the prices I am seeing and the CS data. Also, in most of the places I am looking foreclosures are few and recent sales are about the same. The upper end is frozen.

And I as I stated previously, short sales are next to worthless without a lender approval.

 
 
Comment by Tim
2009-05-03 07:10:07

Agreed. If you are going to get serious about a neighborhood. You need to look at all sales in the last 10 years, take all the repeat solds and extrapolate. Then we can have an intelligent discussion regarding price trends. List prices in a dead market are meaningless.

 
Comment by Muggy
2009-05-03 07:28:44
 
Comment by Eli
2009-05-03 07:48:56

Oooohhh — loved this article. It’s a profile of sellers pouting about how nobody wants to pay $2.2-2.5 million for their oh-so-nice homes in San Jose.

http://www.mercurynews.com/topstories/ci_12266803?nclick_check=1

I only wish the reporter asked each person:
* How much did you originally pay for this home?
* Why do you feel the entitlement to a $1.5 million dollar profit?

Comment by Neil
2009-05-03 08:27:28

I only wish the reporter asked each person:
We could wish. They won’t. Its unfair we’re taking away their gold plated early retirement, don’t you know that?

Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t San Jose get most of 2009’s venture capital needs? What happens in 2010 when they need fresh cash?

Your link does not work for me. But when I went to the mercurynews and clicked on the front page article, it came up with the same url. ???

“We’ve had quite a lot of people offer on the home but they can’t qualify” for a loan, Reese said. “Unless you’re a cash buyer with a lot of money in the bank, it’s not working out for people.”
What is this qualify they speak of? ;) Every other quote made me one to pick up bricks to throw. Some of those people deserve far worse than to be stuck with their homes, greedy ba&%&!#$@!

Got Popcorn?
Neil

Comment by DennisN
2009-05-03 11:32:20

The SJ Merc has the nastiest website. They demand you “sign up for an account” and then push mega cookies onto you. You can only access one story in a 24 hour period if you don’t have an “account” with them.

 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-03 16:25:26

I only wish the reporter asked each person:

Well, IIIIII only wish the reporter had briskly b*itch-slapped each person, just on general principles.
But that’s me.
I didn’t even go to church today, I’m so hard-hearted. Sigh.

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-05-03 17:13:37

“I only wish the reporter asked each person:”

If wishes were horses,
Beggars would ride.

For you DS9 folks “If Wishes We Horses” was an episode in the first season.

 
 
Comment by SUGUY
2009-05-03 08:00:26

I were told that CNY was different

Brother, Can You Spare a Job?
CNY employers see rise in applications, desperation for work
Sunday, May 03, 2009
By John O’Brien
Staff writer
Employers looking for workers in Central New York have seen something different this year.
It’s a certain look: faces a little drawn, postures slumping into question marks.
It’s the appearance of uncertainty and even a little desperation, say the people who are interviewing potential hires.
“There’s definitely a look,” said Cherie Nash, whose job is to retain nursing jobs at SUNY Upstate Medical University in Syracuse.
Recruiters have also never seen the volume of responses to job openings like they have in the past few months. The number of applicants is up from previous years, as is the number of people seeking jobs they’re overqualified for, the hirers say.
Not surprising,given that the area’s unemployment rate hit 8.9 percent in February, the highest ever since a new method of calculating it began in 1990.
At a health care career expo at Upstate Medical University in March, nearly 350 people signed up in three hours, hoping to land one of 100 jobs. They included nurses, maintenance workers and researchers. Last year, in four hours, 214 people applied for the same number of jobs, said Eric Frost, Upstate’s associate vice president for human resources.
One man wore a dress shirt and tie to interview for one of the hospital’s housekeeping jobs that never requires a tie, said Sue Murphy, director of environmental services.
“My heart went out to him,” she said. “He said he was making the rounds.”

http://www.syracuse.com/business/index.ssf?/base/business-15/124125459633570.xml&coll=1

Comment by Eudemon
2009-05-03 11:09:00

So that’s what a “director of environmental services” does!

Manages a group of janitors and toilet cleaners.

Now I know.

 
 
Comment by Cactus
2009-05-03 09:17:05

Lots of expensive homes for rent in Moorpark Ca 93021. Over 4K per month clustered in a few really expensive newer gated communities. Home borrowers turned land lords trying to cash flow on the white elephant ? It will crack, few will pay that price in rent for a 4 thousand square foot Mc mansion in Moorpark.

Comment by awaiting wipeout
2009-05-03 13:24:21

We closed escrow in Mountain Meadows in 1984, one of the first transactions, when it was built. Moorpark does have great climate, but we didn’t like the people (yuppieville), the layout of the city is dreadful, and the 23 fwy was a pain . Are you back in Moorpark, Cactus, or just visiting Ventura County stats?

Comment by Cactus
2009-05-03 14:45:31

“Are you back in Moorpark, Cactus, or just visiting Ventura County stats?”

I’m just visiting the stats but it looks like I will be moving back to CA soon. I was comparing Moorpark with poway both expensive and probably both yuppie-ville but I should think the yuppies have taken down a few pegs with the RE crash ?

Kinda hot here in Phoenix and my job is rather dull plus the wife HATES it here. So hopefully I am moving by July. I know last summer I was almost moved to Hillsboro OR but climate seemed wrong for me, dark rainy, etc. Too bad it wasn’t in Bend or something .

AW Do you still live in the area ?

Comment by awaiting wipeout
2009-05-03 19:18:26

Cactus-
From our Moorpark profit and corp climbing, we bought an oversized (4,000+ sq ft) garage mahal in Wood Ranch, and sold that pos (illegal crew built it-what a nightmare). Wood Ranch was God awful too. Now we’re in Thousand Oaks renting and waiting. T.O. has been invaded. We call it Van Nuys West! East Ventura County has a 3rd world feel, SFV creep, so to speak.

Poway sounds great to me. We’re doing a one check deal, but not sure where yet. We’re done with planned conformist neighborhoods. We want a victory garden, decent neighbors and a one-story plain jane house.

The yuppies are pretenious, even in this downturn.

btw, if you move back to So Ca, check out the annual May JPL/Nasa Open House. It’s free and quite interesting. JPL is in La Canada/Flintridge. Great for kids, and us adult kids. (husband is an EE)

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Comment by Cactus
2009-05-03 20:44:47

“T.O. has been invaded. We call it Van Nuys West! East Ventura County has a 3rd world feel, SFV creep, so to speak.”

Really thats interesting I grew up in that town. Back in the 1960’s it was wide open spaces, Movie sets and an airport which you can see in the movie “its a mad mad world” that was the TO airport.

I guess the earlist I could make it back to CA is July so I’d miss the JPL event, I worked there for a short time in the 1990’s. Contractor work. I would like to take a boat trip out to the channel Islands thats what all CA looked like way back in the Mission days.

 
Comment by awaiting wipeout
2009-05-04 07:39:21

Cactus
Calendar the JPL Open House for next year, if your within driving distance. Lots of kids activites too. Nice piece of property, isn’t it. Trees galore, as you know. The fire last year didn’t touch it, thank God!

T.O. has changed. I use to manage the town’s original mall in the 1980’s.

I haven’t been to Catalina Island, and I grew up in North Hollywood. Maybe someday. The fire last year (or the year before) did a lot of damage. I hope its grown/come back. Nothing worse than a barren island.

 
Comment by awaiting wipeout
2009-05-04 07:47:12

your s/b your’re - within driving…

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Zombie Banks
2009-05-03 10:22:16

Sometimes I wish I could buy a home. But then I remember the war on savers and all the new bills that come with owning. Who is it good for?

Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-05-03 11:02:07

Also you need to remind yourself that government was pushing people into this so-called “ownership society.” One reason is to make people conform to meekness. Dabble in weed by growing ganja in a closet? If your kid tells the neighbor kid you can get caught. Zero tolerance and asset forfeiture will mean the government takes all you got for growing pot. So you gotta conform.

I’ve been a non-conformist since high school. Never trusted what big government and big business was trying to make me become. Look at all these commercials of 20-somethings living a middle class life with a nice clean neighborhood, 2 kids, a couple of near new cars, pool in the back yard, and great neighbors. I could not even afford that in my 30s unless LOL I got in serious debt!!!!!!!

As a mortgage payer, you become a sitting duck for the higher property taxes that will come when the state revenue shortfall occurs.

Renting is the way to go in every situation these days. And I mean EVERY.

Comment by sm_landlord
2009-05-03 12:33:49

“Renting is the way to go in every situation these days. And I mean EVERY.”

For now, I completely agree. No big surprise to hear that from a landlord, I guess ;-)

Buying right now means that you will see your equity evaporate at the same time that you must periodically battle with the assessor to get your new, lower value recognized.

But when the inevitable bill comes due for all of this money printing that the government is engaged in, there will almost certainly be general inflation sufficient to offset further drops in housing prices. You may still be losing money on an absolute basis (depending on when the inflation hits vs when the housing market bottoms in absolute terms), but at least you will have some inflation protection in place.

Looking further out, as the currency melts away, interest rates will probably spike as inflation gets out of control. At that point, you might see housing prices driven down farther, but more likely they will already be below replacement cost, so the cost of buying a place to live will rise due to interest expense. As we saw in the late 1970s/early 1980s, interest rates will have to rise well above the inflation rate to have the necessary impact of preventing a currency collapse. So housing will be rising in real price.

As to the property tax argument, you pay either way. Residential landlords must pass the tax increases through to the tenants; failing to do so means going out of business. The only escape from the tax man is to rein him in through the political process (or vote with your feet and leave the greedy jurisdiction). Just as corporate income taxes are ultimately paid by the end consumer of the corporation’s product, property taxes are ultimately paid by the consumer of the property - in this case, the tenants.

I will probably buy some more property some time in the future, if I can time it to work as an inflation hedge. If I can’t pull off that sort of timing, I’ll just settle for other inflation hedges that I can enter with less friction.

Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-05-03 16:17:15

Good post! I want to clarify that at some point I want to live in a high rise, whether renting the place or owning it. But I fear the government is going to take advantage of mortgage slaves who are also slaves to their community (spouse has a job, kids entrenched in school and with friends).

For now I care to be a thorn in the side of government. My mobile rootless lifestyle is clearly the opposite of what all levels of government want. I only wish more people will live the portable lifestyle like mine. It would substantially cut off the money supply to the bureaucraps and that includes law enforcement of victimless crimes.

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Comment by awaiting wipeout
2009-05-03 16:41:17

For some of us, who sold and have been waiting out this market, renting is becoming less cost effective. If we buy at the end of this year (So Ca) and for argument sake, the house dips another $75K (unlikely that much), that’s 3 years of rent expense. Since ours will be a one check deal, figure around $800.00 a month for housing related expenses (property tax, utilities, insurance) we’ll need to shell out. We’re down big time income wise, so for us preserving our cash reserves is our thinking. We rent 3 climate control storage units and an apt. Our stuff includes a piano. Any feedback?

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-03 17:14:10

Any feedback?

Yeah. Why you buying in SoCal in the first place? What do you love about it sooooo much, that this’s the ONLY place you consider?
(Although I guess I should ask ‘what part of SoCal’.)

*Waves hand around head energetically in a spice-shakery sort of gesture, indicating the possible need for a total paradigm shift *

 
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-05-03 17:14:20

Actually I am too, renting three storage units. Most of my junk is in them and I travel light. This means I can rent smaller places at lower prices.

Consider getting rid of some of your furniture where you currently rent and if you can downsize so that you can pay less rent.

Also rents in my part of LA are coming down. I’m looking out the window and see for rent up and down the street and banners displaying deals on the apartment buildings.

See if you can stick to the next three years. LA prices have been stubborn, especially near the beach areas, but bear in mind that ALT-A resets and Option ARM resets have been very popular in California and the resetting peaks in a couple of years. Means more defaults, more foreclosures, and further price drops.

 
Comment by sm_landlord
2009-05-03 17:29:11

@Bill: Thanks. You may see some more high rise stuff do the repartment thing before long. Donald Sterling has been buying up properties for a couple of years now and operating them as rentals - you might want to keep on eye on what his company is offering. For me, I’m tied down by stuff, so I can’t be mobile and rootless. But I’m working on ways to lighten up on the stuff before I get too old to deal with it. It will take years to accomplish.

@AW: Sell the piano and buy a KX88 keyboard and a Kurzweil sound module. Have a storage sale. And I wouldn’t buy at the end of this year - I expect another leg down in prices when the Option ARM recasts set in, and that doesn’t really get going until 2010.

 
Comment by KJ
2009-05-03 17:42:12

Bill,

I’m confused how moving a lot results in paying less tax to governments. You’re still paying income tax, property tax (even when you rent), sales tax, gas tax, car registration tax, etc.

 
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-05-03 18:15:29

Yes I still pay the taxes, but I get a huge tax break for working for a company at a location in under x amount of months. It’s a much, much larger tax break than a silly mortgage interest deduction.

On the other hand I have two rent payments per month and two utilities payments per month. It’s still darned worth it for those tax breaks.

I use one of the IRS publications and forms for my tax break. Perfectly legal, as it’s from the http://www.irs.gov website. I am a strong proponent of avoiding taxes and do not evade taxes. My career would be over with if I did that. In fact, I wish everyone was as diligent at avoiding taxes as I am. Then we’d starve out big government.

 
Comment by AK-LA
2009-05-04 09:11:02

I lived in a building in Koreatown a few years ago. It was pretty nice, good managers, well-maintained. Sterling bought it and turned it into a dump. Ceased maintenance, harassed our wonderful managers, and jacked up rent 25%. He’s a notorious slumlord - stay well away from any of his buildings.

We bought a house in 2003 desperate to never live in that situation again. (We sold in ‘05 so we survived that mistake just fine.) In some way, it was Sterling that introduced me to the HBB.

 
 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-03 16:01:40

One reason is to make people conform to meekness. Dabble in weed by growing ganja in a closet? If your kid tells the neighbor kid you can get caught. Zero tolerance and asset forfeiture will mean the government takes all you got for growing pot. So you gotta conform.

Sucky!
*inhales deeply *

Say, speaking of, I very recently read an article stating that some CA legislators want to legalize and subsequently tax marijooowanna, since they have so much growing everywhere anyways, and since the budget shortfall is so great.
That there is a GOOD idea.
‘Gateway drug’ my bum… every hemp lover IIIII know is entirely peaceful and wants nothing more than to sit on the couch hogging grandma’s crocheted flower afhgan and annoy everyone else with their cheesy philosophical insights.

….oh, hey, where’d I put my bag of cheese curds? And get off the afghan, dangit! I’m cold!

*hahahahaah! * ;)

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-03 17:27:45

PS. LA Bill, perhaps you possess the wrong closet, the wrong kid, AND the wrong neighbors, is what’s the matter here.

This tells me but but only one thing:
You should move!
;)

*falls off couch laughing *

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Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2009-05-03 18:21:32

Oy, ignore him, pass the bong, lady! ;-)

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-03 19:21:01

Oy, ignore him, pass the bong, lady!

Okayyyy…
*passes it over whilst speaking in the time-recognized breath-holding wheezy sort of smoke-puffy way *

 
Comment by awaiting wipeout
2009-05-03 20:16:39

Oly,
Any micro climate area in WA, where the sun actually comes out? I love the states or WA and OR, but I need some rays.

For the life of me, I have no idea why I want to stay in So Ca? It’s a 3rd world, over taxed, crowded and expensive cesspool. I’ve lived here since 1963. Maybe fear of the unknown, or maybe I am a self hater.

Speaking of bongs, I told my other half in the early 80’s to stop spilling the bong water on my new couch. It was tough explaning the stench to my parents.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by measton
2009-05-03 11:04:21

Here’s a topic for Sunday

It seems there are people suggesting that we should appoint someone to the Supreme Court who has no judicial experience or history. Arlen Specter and Leahy recently suggested this.

My personal view is.

BAD IDEA.

Maybe they are setting the stage for a Goldman Sachs appointment to the bench. I mean GS and company seems to control the FED,Congress, President why not the Supreme court. With no record we could get a real wakadoo in there.

Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-05-03 11:49:02

Again, the left wing people here are going to have another jaw-dropping moment, but I’m looking forward to an even more liberal replacement of Judge Souter by Obama. All during the Bush administration I feared the Patriot Act, the attacks on free speech, the push for religion in schools, and so forth.

Believe it or not though, crimes against our civil liberties are being done at the state level at least as often as at the federal level.

When you have a society that fears the government, you have a big problem, and you crossed the boundary from liberty to totalitarianism. Better to be in a society where the government fears the people.

Actually the tea parties were a good thing on April 15. May they get stronger and stronger!

Comment by measton
2009-05-03 11:56:03

In that spirit

The only statesman I can think of that I might support for the Supreme Courts would be Russ Feingold. Voted against repeal of Glass Steagle (one of 7 or 8) voted against the patriot act, voted against the bail outs last fall. I know a guy who works in DC and Feingolds office reportedly is one of the few if not the only one to have an outright ban on lobbiests buying staff dinner or gifts or tickets ect.

but i still think a Judge who has a track record and understands the law would be the best pick.

Comment by sm_landlord
2009-05-03 12:35:47

I wonder how Ron Paul would do as a Supreme?

*That* would be interesting!

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Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-05-03 13:36:01

A) Ron Paul is too old,
B) He’s anti choice although I think he is in favor of leaving that issue up to the states and not the federal.

Other than that, I think he needs to be listened to carefully on the economic/banking/gold topics. He belongs in Congress.

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-05-03 15:14:15

Other than that, I think he needs to be listened to carefully on the economic/banking/gold topics. He belongs in Congress.

I think you accurately portray his positions. One thing that stands out to me is the fact that he doesn’t feel the need to legislate all of his personal beliefs. Even though he’s pro-life, he doesn’t believe it’s the fed govt’s place to dictate that. I may feel he’s misguided (I think it’s a civil rights issue for the mother), I’m of the opinion you have to respect someone who has the integrity to draw that boundary.

 
 
Comment by ET-Chicago
2009-05-03 12:52:51

The only statesman I can think of that I might support for the Supreme Courts would be Russ Feingold.

I’m rather fond of Feingold, too, but A.) he’s needed where he is, and B.) there are plenty of legal minds out there with strong judicial records. No need to look to the political class, regardless of one’s place on the political spectrum.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-03 14:34:18

Financial Times
Buffett hits out at stress tests
By Alan Rappeport in Omaha
Published: May 3 2009 22:19 | Last updated: May 3 2009 22:19

Warren Buffett, the revered investor, has criticised the Obama administration’s stress tests on the 19 largest US banks, arguing that a one-size-fits-all attempt to identify capital shortfalls was inappropriate.

Although Mr Buffett earlier commmended the government handling of the financial crisis, the high-profile losses at Citigroup had distorted perceptions of smaller banks with different business models, he told a press conference on Sunday after the annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway, his insurance and investment conglomerate.

”That the most prominent bank in the world has needed assistance has framed the public’s view of the banking system. there’s nobody you can call to say ’can you take over Citi this weekend’,” he said.

However, ”to call those 19 banks too big to fail is factually wrong. 15 of them for sure at least would find a home if the FDIC decided to move on them this weekend.” He would be a buyer of three banks in Berkshire’s portfolio - Wells Fargo, US Bancorp and M&T Bank - at current prices, he added.

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2009-05-03 18:20:05

Buffett’s FIRE economy has been smoked to a crisp.

And I speak as a Buffett groupie who realizes that it’s all kinda over!

 
Comment by packman
2009-05-03 18:26:13

Curious as to WTF he means by “at current prices”. Surely he’s not referring to market cap? That would be pretty much irrelevant at this point.

Agree though with the idea that there’s no way those 19 are really “too big to fail”. Somehow people have the idea that “fail” means “total loss”, when it doesn’t. “Fail” generally means liquidation, where the assets are sold to other banks, and thus for the most part aren’t lost, just marked down to their true market value.

 
 
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-05-03 15:23:17

I have a fondness for urban lofts, since they fit my busy lifestyle and I like the efficiency and conveniences in high rises.

I do some investigating every now and then on Phoenix lofts and condos. I particularly am interested in spots along or near the Phoenix light rail.

The good news is that the loft prices are coming way down. About four years ago a 1 bedroom loft on Camelback at the Biltmore was selling for $900,000 typically. In 2006 or 2007 they cut the price in half. Well I saw one there for sale in the low $200s. It’s not near the light rail but I have been interested in that area.

The bad news will keep me out of lofts and condos for awhile: HOA fees are going up. There are a lot of cases of HOAs not being paid or being delinquent. There are a lot of foreclosures in Phoenix lofts. I would not be surprised if your loft you buy for $200,000 in a swanky high floor has an HOA of $700 per month! Outrageous!

One web site about lofts is very honest on its blogs, advising potential buyers of lofts to continue waiting to see how the HOA situations will get resolved.

Comment by Cactus
2009-05-03 20:50:46

Hi Bill I see alot of condo type buildings at Tempe Lakes I think thats near the light rail. Getting hot now in Phoenix all the trees are blooming yellow flowers and so many birds here its amazing.
yes I’d watch the HOA dues one never knows if they will go broke these days.

 
 
Comment by tresho
2009-05-03 16:20:11

No bidders for Akron mall. County proceeds with tax foreclosure.

 
Comment by waiting in_la
2009-05-03 21:37:03

The spring sucker rally is on in LA.

Woke up this morning to what appeared to be 50% higher wishing prices, overnight. Walked across the street (in 90048, where I’ve rented since 2002), to check out an open house. Asking $2.1M!!!

Went for a run, stopped by an open house for a 3/2 2000 sq. ft. on Westbourne - asking $1.695. These are peak wishing prices again.

When I told the realtor this was a ’sucker rally based on artificially low interest rates caused by the government buying its own treasury bonds’, the realtor nodded in agreement. After discussing further, we got to the point where he said ‘the bottom had passed’.

Debating with realtors is frustrated. You get them to agree on a few things, but it’s always a great time to buy. Fuck them.

 
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