Bits Bucket For May 5, 2009
Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here. Please visit the HBB Forum. And see the American Visionaries series from Schwarzfilm.
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here. Please visit the HBB Forum. And see the American Visionaries series from Schwarzfilm.
I this a GREAT country or what!?
YUP:
I took the plunge
I got off the fence,
I put my foot down
I realize the inevitable
I threw in the towel
I am tired of sacrificing anymore
I am tired of all the wonderful stories of happy people
…
….
I got my food stamps today
What’s the ceiling on HHI for food stamps in NY?
What’s the ceiling on HHI for food stamps in NY?
Is it just income, or household wealth? How do they monitor such measurements?
I have very low income but a good deal of assets.
assets count
Pre-screen tool: https://www.mybenefits.ny.gov/selfservice/
assets count ??
IMO, they will count also when social security benefits are means tested…
Whyoung - do “assets” count, of just “declared assets?” IOW, do you think that anybody there bothers to check if the system is gamed by the recipients?
I once was sad because I had no shoes, until I met a man who had no feet.
So I asked him, “Got any shoes you don’t need?”
Never judge a person until you have walked a mile in their shoes.
That way, you are a mile away and you have their shoes.
When life gives you lemons squirt the juice in the eyes of your enemies.
Do unto others ….and move out quickly.
-Things that must be together to work, usually can’t be shipped together.
If you give a man a fire, you keep him warm for a night. If you set a man on fire, you keep him warm for the rest of his life.
you guys are funny, but somehow I get the impression you’ll never be invited as a guest on Oprah.
Give a man a fish, and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, and he’ll invite himself over for dinner.
I prefer:
Give a man a fish, and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, and he’ll spend the rest of his days on a pier getting smelly, sunburnt, and growing a beer gut.
(not necessarily a bad thing, BTW)
When anyone asks, “Why does this arch-conservative, obviously deranged and confused ‘cobaltblue’ keep coming back for more and more punishment?”, I can only reply, I thought I must deserve it, and so did they.
But, you know what, the HBB has some of the greatest minds, alive, in this day
! (Check it out, skeptics! Where were YOU when the SHTF???)
Too bad I’m not one of those “greatest minds”. No matter; please support Ben and this blog with a contribution, when, as, and if you can!
If you can’t laugh at yourself, laugh at someone else.
If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again.
After that, it’s time to find something else to do.
Much like trying to post here.
…and if you chop your feet off while playing with the lawn mower, don’t come running to me for help!
My sister’s old boss had a saying and practiced the saying:
“Why do the work yourself when you can pay someone else to do it.”
“Why do the work yourself when you can pay someone else to do it.”
“Because you want it done right”?
Is that an answer?
Although it’s true, when I think more about the subject, many things don’t need to have me be in charge and it still might possibly work out okay.
Although dam*ned it I’ll ever admit that.
My guess is, Sarah would not like this thread. Not one bit. Shame on you all for this — it has cost me at least 1/10000th of a tree in Kleenex from laughing and my tear ducts are hurting.
Why go to the effort to ‘pick’ on someone here, Chip? Has this community really stooped so low?
Has this community really stooped so low?
Yes?
That would be a ‘yes’. In fact, I ’bout emitted some sort of fluid, I laughed so hard.
Thanks, Chip. Hahahaah!…
Oh, no! What’s this?
I guess I better go find a napkin, is all I can say….
Enjoy them while they last, because a bottom in the economy (including for housing) has boldly been called for later this year…
Wall Street Journal
* MAY 5, 2009, 10:40 A.M. ET
Bernanke: Recession Losing Steam
By BRIAN BLACKSTONE
WASHINGTON — The U.S. recession appears to be losing steam, with growth likely to resume later this year on the back of firmer household spending, a bottoming housing market and an end to inventory liquidation, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday.
I always thought that it’s only an economy that could be losing steam. It runs out of steam - recessions happen. Who put the locomotive in reverse?!
Jimbo — That you???
“Recession losing steam” as if it were some sort of purposefully executed human initiative?
Ben B, you crack me up.
“Recession losing steam”
Are they going to tax steam ?
Water vapor is a greenhouse gas. Of course they will tax steam.
The train is not moving backward. It just seems that way like all train wrecks.
Well, I have to pipe up here and say it’s still a Runaway Train, with apologies to AC/DC of course
Well if he said it, it must be true.
When I first read this, it appeared to be intentionally ambiguous, i.e., the recession is losing steam but will resume its growth towards the end of the year despite what appears to be firmer household spending, a bottoming housing market, and an end to inventory liquidation.
Ah, the magical “second half recovery!” which we’ve been waiting on since 2007… right.
Let’s keep on printing money and Bailing out and I’m sure everything will be fine.
Prof Bear, FWIW, My son works for an IT company in SoCal that services small companies and said that their business underwent a sea change about three weeks ago. They went from a trickle of work to an abundance and he is now working 50-60 hour weeks.
Cool! Maybe it is a good time to start a small company. Is stimulus money available to startups?
The only things available for small companies are tax increases.
So… the IT company is a BIG company that services small companies? Come on, AZ - show (the rest of) us the money!
I run a small IT consulting company as well. I have no full time employees, but sub out work to 4 developers as needed. I will soon need a 5th as there is more work than we can handle right now and the pipeline is full for the next 6-9 months. Problem is everyone I know that could do the work is already working 50+ hours a week. I hate to hire someone I don’t know, but I may have to, either that or lose out on work.
Well, look on the bright side, aNYCdj: you got ‘em just in time to go out and buy a lot of guacamole, chips, and Tequila!
Es muy bien!
(Seriously, though—best of luck to you.)
I wish you luck too, aNYCdj. I’ve never had to apply for food stamps, but I can understand how uncomfortable that might be. Keep your head up.
RE: I got my food stamps today
Don’t matter 2 hoots and a holler, aNYCdj…
‘cuz we all luv ya here!
And a man can’t know good times unless he’s seen the bad.
And a man can’t know good times unless he’s seen the bad.
Verily, more true words was never spoke.
And I will add to that: ‘Amen, and bless the worthy.’*
My great-grandpa used to say that over his meal.
What a good prayer, huh?
Thanks all……..
Or a BB would say:
I am climbing the ladder to dependency.
Used to be.
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-05-04 13:04:04
Leighsong,
Do you keep in touch with hoz?
To all HBBers missing Hoz, I’ve e-mailed him twice.
No response as yet.
Best,
Leigh
When I see posts like this, I always think of that old song:
When you can’t be with the one you love,
love the one you’re with.
*chuckles*
I remember awhile back when Hoz ribbed me here in the forum and I think P’Bear told us to get a room.
Too Funny,
Leigh
Thanks for the info, Leigh. Hoz is certainly missed around here.
Maybe he’s busy going long the market though.
Alas, we’ve lost a couple of regular posters that I enjoyed and that brought a lot of value; Tom in sarasota, Jwhite, who caused a market dip every time he went on his daily walk, red-pill, ann gogh, Friar John, , KandyKane, Vermontergal— she hasn’t posted in months, I really miss her, and others I can’t recall at the moment.
I assume that life just happened, people come and go, they went in a different direction, or got really busy or were incarcerated for beating up realtors or something.
Or maybe alien abductions! In which case maybe they’ll come back one of these days with some REALLY interesting real-estate stories…
(”I was on Mars getting prob*ed and there were ‘For Sale’ signs simply everywhere….” )
But as Ben says, ‘love the one you’re with’, and Ben’s Blog is still super, seeing as how all HBBers are brilliant, knowledgeable, charming, attractive and delightful* in every way, right? Right.
*With maybe a very rare exception now and then.
Well, when somebodys says this stuff, I think, ‘what am I, chopped liver?’
If you guys think you can remember this poster or that, I think of all my buddies from the days when only 10 people were posting here. We would greet each other in the comments section like it was a coffee shop:
Good morning Ben.
Good morning to you Ms Penelope.
But I like these lines from Kerouac about his real life friend and the hero of On the Road:
‘We’ve just been back and forth across the country several times in cars and now our adventures are over. We’re still great friends but we have to go into later phases of our lives.’
Awwww, Ben. Don’t be sad.
Good afternoon, Ben!
Well some of this is probably due to the fact that while fifty people saying “I told you so,” is somewhat satisfying, it isn’t as interesting as a dozen of us saying”They’re all CRAZY, I tell you, and I have the charts to prove it!”
Well Ben,
Your not chopped liver to me.
I’m like Olygal, I miss some of the old posters. I hope they are all okay and have moved on to bigger and better things.
I remember Melody and Goleta (and several others) and a night, in my “blinfancy,” when I ragged on Melody for posting too many times in one evening while she clearly was enjoying some great Cab. She was posting a lot of great links related to the day’s events. To this day, I regret that arrogant and unwarranted flame. It was in the first days that I ever posted or knew about blogs, much less was blessed to discover Ben’s.
Melody, babe, I apologize, squared.
I’m like Olygal, I miss some of the old posters. I hope they are all okay and have moved on to bigger and better things.
Shoots, SanFran! There is no ‘better’ than this, surely?
All I hope is, that they ain’t getting alien-probed on Mars right now.
(I mean, you know—unless they enjoy that sort of thing.)
And there is nothing,/i> wrong with that, if so.
I remember Melody and Goleta (and several others) and a night, in my “blinfancy,” when I ragged on Melody for posting too many times in one evening while she clearly was enjoying some great Cab.
Hmmm.
Chip, you know what? You must forgive yourself.
It’s not like these are easy subjects to discuss, the housing/credit bubble popping, devaluation of the USD, commodity craziness, rice-hoarding, running through the woods with torches, beans into peas…look, it’s crazy times, man!
So you gotta relax.
Here, have a Pacifico.
(hands him a virtual Pacifico )
I bet Melody and Gaviota are doing just fine somewhere else. Probably sharing casserole recipes.
Well Ben,
Your not chopped liver to me.
This could be a segue, but I don’t care. I LOVE liver. I often stop at the Safeways on Mud Bay and buy 3 tubs and then go home and cook them all in my cast-iron skillet.
*falls off chair with excitement, thinking of it *
Comment by Chip
2009-05-05 17:51:09
I remember Melody and Goleta (and several others) and a night, in my “blinfancy,” when I ragged on Melody for posting too many times in one evening while she clearly was enjoying some great Cab. She was posting a lot of great links related to the day’s events. To this day, I regret that arrogant and unwarranted flame. It was in the first days that I ever posted or knew about blogs, much less was blessed to discover Ben’s.
Melody, babe, I apologize, squared.
———————-
Chip,
I remember that night, and distinctly remember that Melody did not seem to take offense. As a matter of fact, she came back either later that night or the next morning to apologize because she was copying whole articles instead of just a few snippets with a link. That’s when she told us about the wine.
You’re one of the most gracious posters here, Chip.
Stephen Stills, writer of said song, came through town not too long ago on CSNY’s “Freedom of Speech” tour. They tore it up. Stills had prostate cancer surgery not too long ago. His publicist has said he was getting along OK.
Since when is that an “old” song?
Signed, not old (in my mind, anyway).
Leigh,
Thank you for the follow-up.
RE: I this a GREAT country or what!?
Yup, yesterday I had my wallet stolen after the thieves cut the lock on my locker at the health club to which I’ve belonged for 5 years.
Within an hour these human pieces of excrement ran to the local Apple Store and used my AmEx and Visa card to bag not a couple of $150.00 iPods, but rather a pair of top end lap-tops in the amount of $6,000.00. Fortunately, I was able to shut down everything before more immediate damage was done.
Needless to say, the store manager was rather tongue tied when she subsequently learned $6,000.00 of her merchandise went out the door via stolen credit cards. Seems “Apple”, in it’s infinite wisdom, DOES NOT require any form of indentification relative to the purchase of multi-thousand dollar high end items, easily fenced thru sources like eBay or Craigslist.
However, they do have security camera, LMAO.
THAT’S FELONY THEFT you thieving azzholes! 5 years in the big house. Better throw up those Facebook pages real quick-I’m sure BigBubba will be your “friend”.
So, with this on top of the break-in of my 86YO mother’s family cottage over the winter; if I was a cynic before after the state of the country, I’m frothing rabid from here on out.
Morale of the post-don’t leave ANYTHING lying around anymore. And even if you think you’re safe-you’re not.
There’s a boatload of desperation out there, and it ain’t gonna bet any better tomorrow!
Dang hd - that stinks. Hopefully you’ll only have to go through the logistical pain (bad enough) and not monetary loss.
I’m amazed at how retailers no longer check ID’s with credit cards anymore, or at least very infrequently. *However* that being said - they seem to be doing so a little more frequently the past 1-2 months; I think the rise in credit card theft is starting to hit them in the wallet.
I’m surprised you hear more about legal fights between credit card companies vs. retailers on liability for such thefts. For each theft one of the two has to eat the loss - I think often the CC company does, but you’d think they’d push on the retailers to have higher security - like checking ID’s at least.
Retailers are not allowed to check ID vs. credit card name by their agreement with VISA/MC. Consumerist runs stories on this all the time. Most minions at the counter don’t actually know this.
RE: Retailers are not allowed to check ID vs. credit card name by their agreement with VISA/MC.
CCC~
So who eats the $6k involved with this felony theft?
Merchant or the bank?
They do all the time here in Colorado.
Hmm - well I was about to disagree with you, but looked it up and sure enough you’re right! E.g. MasterCard has a web page where you can report merchant violations - and one of the violations is if the merchant requires identification.
Wow. To be honest I’m surprised.
I would imagine that it’s probably not illegal (per se) for the merchant to *ask* for your ID, though if you refuse they’re apparently not allowed to reject your purchase or require you to pay cash.
It’s amazing that the small amount of customer satisfaction from not having to show ID is in the credit cards’ companies’ better interest than trying to reduce the losses from fraud. That’s akin to how most at most stores if you walk out the front and the security alarm goes off - now they pretty much just let you go. I’m amazed at that too.
So who eats the $6k involved with this felony theft?
Merchant or the bank?
Generally the merchant (what I found from doing some google searching anyhow).
Which IMO stinks, though it is what it is. The merchants agree to it so they don’t lose a lot of customers that like to use CC. It’s a tradeoff.
RE: The merchants agree to it so they don’t lose a lot of customers that like to use CC.
Ugh…
Someone scooted out of my joint with $6k of fraudently
obtained merchandise; and I was the one taking the hit because of card issuer policy, I’d be looking for a cash biz real quick.
The interesting question I have in my own mind…is the crime big enough to warrant the cops doing anything.
Apple has the purchase on surveillance camera, and the gym has a computerized log-book for check in with pretty strict monitoring of access.
Will a cop set down his donut for a $6k nonviolent crime?
Google that one, packman! (laugh)
That’s stunning…
Why in the world would CC companies not allow retailers to check ID? If they can’t check ID, then the CC companies should be liable for ALL losses from stolen cards.
We write “MUST CHECK I.D.” on the signature lines of all our cards, instead of signature. Supposedly, that’s not allowed/legal, but someone at the bank told us to do it if we are worried about CC theft.
I just don’t understand WHY people would be offended by having to show other forms of ID. I’M the one being protected from the hassle of having to dispute fraudulent charges.
Why don’t merchants offer cash discounts (like 5% or so)? This discount would be offset by the reduction in fees paid to CC companies. No CC fraud for Merchant to get stuck with. Consumers with cash wins, Merchant wins, bank gets screwed out of their fee (bonus). Or do the CC companies forbid the Merchants from offering cash discounts as part of their agreement too?
Why don’t merchants offer cash discounts (like 5% or so)?
I believe that many merchant agreements disallow this. Can any of y’all small business folks back this up?
Still, some places do offer cash discounts…just ask sometime.
Amex merchant agreement do not allow an ID to be required to purchase. Their commercials used to claim all you ever needed was your Amex card (”Don’t leave home with out it”).
Having said that, always cover you address when showing your ID for a CC purchase, as that is all pretty much all anyone needs for identity theft.
Why would they? As long as they can securitize the credit card loans, all the Banks care about is making as many loans as possible.
The fewer checks the better.
We have a winner.
I always thank the checkout person when they compare my signature on the receipt to the one on the card. Good behaviour should be rewarded.
That’s a tough 1-2 punch you and your family have suffered. And a timely warning to all.
A friend of mine found someone’s lost iPod and went to the Apple store to try to find out who it belonged to, thinking they might register serial numbers or something, or they could unlock it so she could find contact info. The store manager couldn’t have been less helpful–flatly refused to do anything. He told her “looks like you now own an iPod”.
That certainly sucks for the person who lost an iPod.
But I’m cheered up a bit to think that you obviously associate with cool people.
“But I’m cheered up a bit to think that you obviously associate with cool people”
Obviously–I hang out here, don’t I?
Yar. Solid.
I have my own “unhelpful store staff” story.
Years ago there was a “Liquor Barn” chain, which used non-performing Safeway stores. One day I realized that the Visa billing for a case of wine I had purchased never showed up on my bill. About 4 months later I went into the store and showed them my receipt, thinking they would thank me.
They gave me a hard time and told me to get lost.
So I never did that again. About once a year they would not turn in one of my receipts for a Visa purchase, so I just laughed and consumed my “free” booze.
A few years later the Liquor Barn chain went bankrupt. Geez, I wonder why.
You’ld think that at least they would thank you and say something like “its on us”.
Dennis,
I had the same experience when we went to a rather expensive dinner at the Disneyland Resort (Main Street Disney).
As I save all my receipts and match them up with the statements, I noticed this one had never been processed. When I called to let them know, they said, “so why are you calling us, why would you want to pay if we didn’t charge you?”
They had no desire to straighten out the transaction **in their favor** and acted almost annoyed.
These companies must be making a ton of money off the rest of their transactions, since they don’t care about the money that falls between the cracks.
For some reason, there was a local gas station whose charges were not being deducted from accounts at our credit union. FOR MONTHS. When the glitch was resolved and the charges posted, several people started bouncing checks.
I found an ipod on the Metro last year. First thing I did was look at the contacts list. If there had been a few people there with the same last name or identified by “Mom” or something like that, I would have called to arrange a pickup with the owner, but the contact list was empty. I turned it in to the help booth at my stop, but was uneasy with it since it seemed so obvious that it was the sort of thing you should be able to trace.
The Post tech guy said he thought Apple could theoretically match the songs on it to an Itunes account, but that wouldn’t work if all the music was downloaded from CD’s. And he didn’t know if Apple would actually do it. Guess I know now.
You can register any Apple product by serial number (not everyone does). Not sure if they have an institutional policy for a look-up in event of a theft or loss, however.
Happened to me a couple of weeks ago
Another advantage in getting rid of all the credit cards……..only had to call reports in on my Visa, my debit Visa, and one gas card.
I managed to get them shut down a couple of hours before they tried to use them.
I hear ya hd74man. We just had a robbery/murder near here the other day. This never happens. (fast food place. killed the manager)
I take that back. We had a bank robbery around here about 2 years ago. That same year there was a felony drug bust right in front of my house!
But murder? Too close for comfort.
yes you’re right break-ins are up, my brother and a guy at work both had their homes plundered within the last month.
A neighbor just e-mailed to let us know there have been at least two robberies in our n’hood in the past three weeks. This is supposed to be a “good” neighborhood, too.
I’m sorry, HDman. Burglary makes you feel like crap. I hope you’re not responsible for anything.
Talked to my lawyer homie in NYC last night. He said some firms are paying lawyers $60k to disappear for a year.
It is grim for attorneys right now (with the exception of litigation, divorce and bankruptcy). Finance, real estate and corporate groups are slashing secretaries and associates. 20-40% cuts are common. Partners are getting points/pay cut. Summer programs for law school kids are being cut. The new trend now is to send an email to associates that we will give 75k or so to the first 10 ppl that resign. The implication being if we get less than 10 takers, we will just select ppl that didnt take the offer for termination with no severance.
My personal workload is down 40%. You can’t even enjoy the lessened workload because you have to constantly be looking for the next deal. No one does or should feel safe. If I get too nervous about the axe, I might ask for a non-paid sabbatacle next year and just travel so I am not under the pressure to produce in an environment that is not conducive to new deals, but that has its downside as well.
I have a friend that is a paralegal and she was let go last Friday. She said they emailed all the summer interns to let them know not to show up next week.
A while back DJ emailed me his resume — I thought for sure I could help him land a para job, but nobody I know needs help.
I have two other friends finishing up LS now, and they’re shants-pitting themselves.
It would really suck to amass $100K-ish worth of student debt only to face an uncertain job market. (Maybe your friends went to state schools, but they prob’ly still face a sizable loan debt.)
And they have the dubious pleasure of studying for and passing the bar in their state(s) of choice before that law degree is worth anything substantial in the marketplace.
I was considering going back to get a law degree a few years ago…software engineering just doesn’t do “it” for me, and I thought lawyering, since it requires a lot of the same personality traits, might be a good fit.
Decided it didn’t makes sense on paper…I’d give up 3 years of my current earnings, plus have to pay for tuition. At a cost of roughly $400k, it just didn’t make sense.
Looking like a good decision in retrospect.
ET, in 2003 I took the LSAT and applied to a few schools. the friend I referred to above has been a lifelong bud of mine, and he told me not to do it, he also told all of my other friends not to do it. Nobody listened — it’s the ultimate “liberal arts” degree.
A lot of my friends went into law, and hardly any of them had a reason beyond, “I’ve got nothing else going on…”
Every lawyer I ever met told me not become a lawyer, but I did anyway. I’ve no regrets about getting the education (my then employer paid 90% of the tuition and books), but the lawyers were right. Perhaps had I not had a previous career I would still be a lawyer today, but there are much easier ways to make a buck than that route. And there’s much less drinking required at the end of the day.
Two of my friends are/were pre-law students…they took the LSAT last fall and were all ready to apply until their scores came back. They’ve always have claimed that it’s not worth going to law school unless you go to one of the top 20 schools because otherwise you’ll never be paid enough to recoup the cost. Well, apparently neither did as well on the LSAT as they’d hoped so they didn’t even bother to apply this year; now they’re out trying to find jobs with political science degrees…
The practice of law is dishonest, stressful, and boring. It stopped being a profession years ago - its pure business now - milking as much money as possible out of the clients and the system.
I come from a family with a fair number of lawyers, and growing up, I just assumed that’s what I’d do as a career — liberal arts school, law degree, find a legal niche, and work, work, work.
I took the LSATs and had a stack of applications, but ultimately I just couldn’t do it. I don’t regret it. In the late ’90s, I worked for a big DC law firm for a short while in their tech services department and really disliked it, though the people in my department were nice enough.
One of my sisters ended up going to law school and worked as a law school administrator and international human rights attorney for a while. Now she’s quite happy to be a stay-at-home mom who does occasional legal translation work for the UN and OAS. But she still has all those private school loans to pay off.
It would appear to me (this is musing from afar, of course), that the legal profession is one where your work can line up with your morals/values. For most jobs, that opportunity simply isn’t there. I really can’t do anything as a software developer to advance personal freedoms, individual liberties, fight “the man”, etc…that’s attractive about law.
Of course, that’s not where the money is in law, either.
A lot of my friends went into law, and hardly any of them had a reason beyond, “I’ve got nothing else going on…”
I went to law school in my early 40’s to pursue being a patent attorney. My engineering career in defense electronics vanished with the ending of the Cold War so I had to do something. I found law school a fun 3 year vacation from work and made some decent money after getting out.
But too many engineers got the same idea and now even the Patent Bar has too many practicioners. I’m glad to be retired.
Paging Polly: she’s an attorney who seems to enjoy her work, and is a good person besides.
But I was a classic “go to law school because I can’t figure out what else to do.” I really loved law school - that was a bad sign. A lot of lawyers who love being lawyers hate law school. Then I was in private practise at a big firm and learned a lot but wasn’t really happy except that I was paying off my loans pronto ($70K in just under 3 years). Then I was at another big firm with no loans left and realized that the money wasn’t enough to motivate me to be bored like that when I didn’t have a huge debt to pay off. But I did save a lot of money and go on a few nice vacations. Then I was unemployed for a while and was brilliantly happy volunteering at various things.
Then I got a job at a big multinational company. Back at the law firms we used to think that those were the sweet jobs. But my boss was a jerk and I wasn’t all that happy. Then I got laid off because of the recession after 9/11 and I refused to go after a job in a hedge fund because I thought they were nasty.
Then I got a wonderful job in the government and I get to do projects that cause Congressmen to actually think twice before they make decisions based on anecdotal evidence and discuss the proper application of existing laws to new and intersting situations with my clever colleagues. And I get to use the stuff I learned in the other jobs to make good arguments for my position on things. And the fact that I know about finance and health care and a few tiny little bits of economics and all sorts of other stuff matters to my job. And that makes me happy.
Oh, and REhobbyist? Thank you very much for the “good person.” I do try. Sometimes it is harder than others. Like this afternoon. When I had to file for reimbursement for my travel expenses. I believe I used some unlady like language. And that was before the fax machine went all wonky. Then I really got irked.
Great to hear you love your job, and that you get to do some good for our society, Polly.
It’s nice to know we have people like you working on behalf of our govt.
Yeah, I worked in a legal library for a short period, and while STUDYING the law sounded interesting, most jobs practicing it sounded boring as hell. It was sometimes amusing when we got newly minted attourneys asking us to serach Lexis for “everyting on (blarg)” “do you want to limit that, there’s alot of material on (blarg)” “No, I need everyghing!” “Okay, come back later.” Several thousand dollars, and a box of flatfold paper later they could be persuaded to search on (blarg) AND (bleem).
Isn’t there work in asset reclamation? It seems like work, if not pay, should be booming.
You have an industry that did zero due dillegence for a decade. They didn’t want to know, so they wouldn’t have to lie to the suckers.
We may not be talking six figure jobs, but you’d think they’d want people to do due dillegence now.
WT,
My thinking exactly. Personally, I think every home ( loan ) owner in America should be talking to an attorney right now but that’s just me?
At the very least there should be enough debt/misrepresentation Class Action going on right now to be fighting over the recent grads?
And in keeping w/ the REIC “Careful What You Wish For/There IS… No Housing Bubble” threat ( 2001-2006 ) my wife is noticing -exponentially- higher workload as one of the “lucky” survivors. She’s a lowly QA Inspector and is now taking on tasks normally adjudicated to engineers. ( At the same pay of course )
75k, I could live 4 years on that
It got over done. First years with no experience were given 150k, and that’s outside of New York City. Firms are worried about negative publicity about announcing layoffs, so some are trying to get them to voluntarily resign. That way, when the market turns, they can claim to be one of the best places to work because they are not as cut throat as other firms - yada, yada, yada.
The fact of the matter is that experienced paralegals are better than most 1-2 year associates, and get a third of the salary. I will never understand why clients dont complain about new associates billing out at $300 but do complain about experienced paralegals billing for half that.
They get a third the salary if you only count the base. But they get paid for overtime. That can make one heck of a difference.
We used to have paralegals that would volunteer to work holidays or weekends. Because of overtime abuse, there is now a very strict sign-off procedure (e.g., no paralegal can do overtime unless a partner signs-off on it in writing, and if there are other paralegals that are slow even partner sign-off is questioned).
Tim,
I am an attorney about 8 years out of law school working in a government position (I enjoy the work, but I work nearly as hard as I did in private practice; 9 am to 6 or 7 pm with some weekends. A late nighter (past 11 pm) every week or two).
I am in a state where it is challenging to support a wife and two kids on a government legal salary, so I have been quietly putting feelers out to see what is available. A firm where I worked previously (and liked the people and the work; I left mostly for commute reasons) just made me an offer that increases my salary pretty substantially. I’ve inquired as to whether they anticipate any slowdown that would lead to layoffs in the next two years and have been strongly assured they do not expect that. They also have not laid off anyone during this recession.
In reading you posts, it sounds like you have a fair amount of experience in the legal world. Any thoughts, cautions, etc.?
I worked for the same large (400+ attorneys) firm for 12 years, and am in the center of the storm. I specialized in securitizations (i.e., the bundling and slicing of dicing of debt such as mortgage notes, credit card debt, promissory notes) and derivative products, representing investment banks. I was in the game well before the bubble, and never did subprime (and had max 75% LTV requirements), but recent events tarnished the whole industry. Lending, securitization, venture capital and real estate have taken the biggest hit. Other areas have not been impacted as much or have increased needs. I do not believe what I did will ever come back to where it was before, and my clients have gone through enormous changes. Traditional lending and real estate will, however, come back at a normal pace eventually. If they are still busy now, they are probably well positioned. I would have to know the exact type of practice you would be engaged in, as well as the type of clients, to guess as to whether there will be a slowdown in that particular area. It’s a plus that you know the people before hand. Potential associates ask me what it’s like to work for my firm. I tell them it all depends on who you work for. It has always been my experience that the people you will work is the most important variable. They can make it pleasant or nightmarish, regardless of any alleged firm philosophy. Rather than looking at it as firm v. firm, I would want to know exactly who I would be working with, and try to get inside information on what they are like to work with, which you may already have. Some are great teachers, mentors and colleagues, and some or bastards that want to use you and spit you out. In summary, if you feel that those that you would work with would be intelligent, good teachers who would look out for your interests rather than attempt to use you, and there would be no personality conflicts, I would go for it. If you find out they have been through multiple associates, I would want more information. If there is true expansion, that would make me more comfortable than a postion that keeps opening up for some reason. Also listen to what they say about others when they talk to you. If they make derogatory comments about those that they work with or former people in the position you are taking, it could be a sign that they will talk about you behind your back, or that they may be responsible for the conflict.
Thanks for your thoughts. Very much appreciated.
Are they subject to recall if the administration tax proposal passes and everyone has to restructure all the multinational corporations that are structured to take advantage of the current tax rules?
A lot of associates wouldn’t know how to live on $60K once they “adjusted” to a firm lifestyle. That wouldn’t cover their student loan payments, BMW lease, and bar tab.
You forgot the 3BR condo mortgage payment ( plus assessments, plus taxes), which doesn’t seem so great now that they can see their RE value depreciating on a weekly basis.
My last mortgage payment is this week. Of course, my bank is charging me $ 95 for the privilege of paying my mortgage off.
Conincidentally, my bank also sent me a letter telling I an pre-qualified for a $ 50,000 line of credit. Maybe I could spruce up my back yard….
Spruce up the back yard for $50K? That’s it. No more HGTV for you!!
Congrats on paying off the mortgage.
“Spruce up the back yard for $50K?”
Added value: $175,000
Nope - added value is MINUS $25,000, because a buyer would have to take care of the back yard instead of watching TV.
You haven’t been watching HGTV long enough. Backyard redos often include tvs.
“Backyard redos often include tvs.”
And two friends (one with a truck) who will remove a tree for a six pack and some hot dogs.
They’re not mere back yards, they’re outdoor ROOMS, doncha know. Complete with outdoor furniture, rugs, lamps and kitchens. The catalogs photograph them in their brand-new, pristine condition. What they don’t show is what those ‘rooms’ look like after a thunderstorm with big wind blowing dirt, tree branches and assorted junk all over the now-soggy ‘room’. And then, that’s followed by a hatching of mosquitos.
I LOVE the Great Outdoors. Really.
I LOVE the Great Outdoors. Really.
Yes, me too, but not when it’s stupid and has teevee’s and lamps in it.
Congratulations! We have a ways to go, but I love to watch our balance shrink every month.
Congrats Dave!
Well done.
“…my bank is charging me $ 95 for the privilege of paying my mortgage off. ”
What happens if you don’t pay the fee? What are they gonna do, foreclose?
The bank is probably so unused to having anyone actually pay off a mortgage that the $75 goes for finding someone on staff who actually knows what to do.
HAhaahaha!
My bet is that it is a recording fee to record your satisfaction of mortgage in the land records showing you paid it and that the money is going to the recording office and not the bank. FWIW the recording fee in MA is $75.
Yeah, that’s what it’s for - at least in my case it was.
Funny that Dave also received a pitch for a HELOC immediately afterwards, same thing happened to me too. With regards to pushing debt, banks defintely function like a coked up crack dealer who just ate a pack of candy cigarettes.
he could always use the $50k as seed capital for a loan shark business.
Just sayin’
It’s different here , the land registry folks want another $ 75 to take the bank off the deed…so it’s $ 95 to the bank and $ 75 to the government.
Also for some reason they didn’t take the payment out yesterday; it won’t be taken out until next Tuesday. So they tack on another 10 cents in interest.
“So they tack on another 10 cents in interest.”
Pay it in pennies. Serves them right.
“…So they tack on another 10 cents in interest.”
Psst, don’t sweat the small stuff…sent them a Thank You card, piss on it just before you mail it.
Old Puerto Rico saying: “Don’t get mad…get even!”
I don’t get this, once you’ve sent the last PAYMENT in, there IS no interest right? This isn’t money that you OWE them, this is money that you’re paying them to perform a service (recordation and sending you your promisary note). How can you owe them interest on payment for a service that they haven’t provided to you yet?
After we paid off our mortgage, it disappointed me that we didn’t get the deed or title or whatever in the mail, like you get with a car. It seemed anticlimactic and a little unsettling, as if without some piece of paper in hand we could still be vulnerable to someone claiming our property as their own (yes, irrational, but that’s kind of how it felt!).
Not making that payment every month is very sweet, though.
I got one of those papers… a property tax bill asking for $1300 every 6 months. You see, you don’t own the property, you pay rent, in my case almost $216/month.
The fixed costs of living are way to high… but soon I will have it down to.
1) Property Tax $215/month
2) Internet $55/month
3) Car Tax/Insurance $100/month
4) Home Owners Insurance $100/month
Unfortunately, even with a minimum wage job, there would be almost no money left over for food.
Well once there’s no mortgage, you’re CHOOSING to pay homeowner’s insurance.
“My last mortgage payment is this week.”
+1 Kudos!
Congrats on paying off your mortgage!
Congratulations, Dave of the North.
A virtual Corona to you! Or do you prefer Pacificos?
*toasts Dave with virtual Corona AND virtual Pacifico, just in case*
Lol - congrats!
Congrats on the mortgage.
Just be sure that the bank properly files the reconveyance. Check with the county recorder in 30 days or so. Banks are notoriously slow on this and have been known to fail to file it altogether.
Find out who’s in charge of filing the reconveyance and keep in touch until it’s done.
Sucks when later on you go to sell your house and the bank’s been sold or closed for business.
Yay, Dave! I’m looking forward to doing that in a few years, too. And your yard looks just fine to me.
GMAC Reports $675 Million First-Quarter Loss as Defaults Rise
By Ari Levy
May 5 (Bloomberg) — GMAC LLC, the auto and home lender that received a $6 billion government bailout, reported a first- quarter loss of $675 million as surging loan defaults eclipsed an increase in new mortgages.
The loss compares with a deficit of $589 million a year earlier, the Detroit-based company said today in a statement sent by PR Newswire. GMAC’s auto finance business recorded a profit of $225 million and its Residential Capital LLC unit, once among the country’s biggest subprime mortgage lenders, lost $125 million.
While a combination of rising foreclosures and tumbling auto sales left GMAC on the brink of collapse in December, the company’s bonds have rallied this year after the government deemed the lender critical to the survival of General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC. To tap the Treasury’s bailout program, GMAC was granted permission to convert into a bank holding company, allowing it to fund loans through consumer deposits.
“Things look better now than they did at Christmas,” said Pete Hastings, a fixed-income analyst at Morgan Keegan & Co. in Memphis, Tennessee, in an interview before the report was released. “The end markets are still troubled and the economy is still tough.”
GMAC’s 8 percent bonds due in 2031 rose to a 10-month high yesterday, gaining 2 cents on the dollar to 64.5 cents, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The notes have surged 55 percent since April 30, when the lender agreed to provide financing for customers and dealers of Chrysler after the carmaker filed for bankruptcy protection.
Support for GMAC
In a press briefing that day, an official from President Barack Obama’s administration said GMAC would receive the “financial support necessary” to expand after assuming Chrysler’s loan originations.
Gimme Credit LLC analyst Kathleen Shanley wrote in a May 1 report that, while the Chrysler deal presents few risks for GMAC, the company “faces challenges if GM files for bankruptcy.” She recommended investors sell their bonds after April’s rally. Morgan Keegan’s Hastings also said that a potential GM filing is a concern because it would have a “depressing effect on revenues.”
GM must shrink operating costs, debt and liabilities by June 1, a deadline set by Obama. The Detroit-based company said 90 percent of bondholders owning $27 billion must tender their holdings by that date or it will be forced to file.
So, does the president want me to buy a Chrysler or a Chevy? I need some clarification. He and Michelle ought to stop by one Saturday afternoon and we can take a few test drives together.
I’ll sell ya’ my Pontiac real cheap
“My last mortgage payment is this week.” CONGRADULATIONS!!!!
A long long time ago, in a place far far away, they used to have these, I think they were called mortgage burning parties.
My Mom & Dad had one, when I was probably 9 or 10 years old. I was the last of the bunch so they had been in the house 20 years at that point. I’m hard pressed to remember any other time when I ever saw both of them as overjoyed as they were then.
That, and then (later) seeing my widowed Mom’s careful categorizing and monthly totaling of every household expense (long before spreadsheets and Quicken) has stayed with me for a lifetime. With their very modest income, we kids never wanted for anything important, not even close.
Oh yeah, they came of age in the last Great Depression. That might have had something to do with it.
“…we kids never wanted for anything important”
That you acknowledge that poetic truth, says a great deal about you.
I am surprised more FBs are not having mortgage burning parties.
“I am surprised more FBs are not having mortgage burning parties.”
They are having house-burning parties
RE: They are having house-burning parties
Check out the front page of today’s WSJ.
The bank’s are having “tear-down” parties in CA!
I don’t recall having a document to burn.
Just a letter acknowledging it was all paid, and I didn’t want to burn that!
I think what would be burned is the promissory note, which you should have a copy of from closing.
er..check that. I think when you pay it off, the bank should mail you the promissory note you signed.
I’ve paid off two now…can’t remember the details exactly but I think that’s how it happened.
Wow! In keeping with my motto for the Year…
“Take encouragement where you can -find- it!” this is the best news I’ve heard in weeks! Good on ya’ Dave!
To be truthful though, even after 10 years of paying on the same mortgage, the wife and I had hardly made a dent? Even if we ‘did’ convert to a 15 yr. I’d still be 60-something when we paid it off.
Sorry guys, it’s just not even a priority for us any more? If rents were going through the roof ( and they might ) I’d be sh!tting my pants. What ‘is’ important to us would be having our 2nd/vac. home paid off! If rents ‘do’ spiral out of control, we can always operate out of there. At this point, I’ll accept CASH ( with proper ID )
I agree. I’ve had the thrill of paying off car loans and student loans, but I can’t see ever paying off a home loan (unless I’m enjoying the good life in a $100K mobile home in Briny Breezes). Right now we have the assets to pay off a mortgage, but I like having that chunk of change versus a paid off hunk of dirt.
Nine years left baby, with my refi to a 15 year in 2003, my house is due to be paid off the year before I’m eligible for early retirement.
For sure, WTE!
As I commented above, it was a disappointment to not receive a paper copy of the title or deed marked “PAID”. It’s done with cars, most of which cost less than a house.
Even if you did receive a title, you wouldn’t want to burn it! You want to burn the promissory note, thats the thing that says you owe someone money.
Oh, the title would be framed, and hung on the wall right next to the embroidered “Home Sweet Home” sign. Or, as we referred to our house for the first 7 or 8 years, the Little House From Hell.
Burn the xerox copy!
“The honorary degree is a way of honoring a pompous ass. No honest person would accept a degree he hadn’t worked for. Honorary degrees are suitable only for realtors, chiropractors and presidents of the United States.” ~H.L. Mencken
When a bunch of global warmenites gets up a head of steam and generates headlines, I often wonder what Mencken would have had to say about it all. We so need another Mencken or Mike Royko in these times.
I (proudly) graduated from the same high school in Baltimore, MD that Mencken did.
R. Emmett Tyrrell, Jr. is generally considered to be Mencken’s modern heir.
I have a feeling that Mencken actually would appreciate the scope of the global warming problem and upbraid its misguided opponents.
But that’s just, like, my opinion, man.
I have no idea what side of the debate Mencken would have been on, nor did it ever matter with most of his writing. Whenever there was preening hypocrisy on display by the truckload, that’s where Mencken or Royko were most devastating. The rightness or wrongness of the hyperventilation of the day usually wasn’t the point.
And yes, Mencken would find no end of right wing targets as well. I could name a couple dozen myself.
R Emmett Tyrell doesn’t qualify as a Mencken replacement. He could be, just like Jon Stewart, but they’re both too beholden to their own ideological camps. The closest that we have today IMO to Mencken is Penn&Teller, or South Park, but they’re just not the same, plus there’s all the gratuitous vulgarity.
Gotcha. Very true. Dante also had a special place for the hypocrites and it was way, way down there. Although I don’t think that an ad hominem attack should defeat an entire scientific argument, I was a little more than a little pissed off when the size of Gore’s house and electric bill was divulged. I like to see righties and lefties called on the carpet.
Peraps Al was just living the words of a SubGenius preacher that I heard once, “I don’t practice what I preach… because I’m not the kind of man I’m preachin’ to!”
MrBubble
did he really say that? I thought “realtors” was a more modern abomination.
We need more independent minded curmudgeons like Mencken.
These paid political shills that pass for commentators these days don’t count.
Can one make a living as an independent minded curmudgeon? I want that job! (But I seem to recall that Mencken had to put up with the hassle of working in the newspaper biz — forgetaboutit.)
Or, you could keep your day job, and be sort of a neighborhood / blogosphere wandering troubadour independent minded curmudgeon.
Unfortunately, Mencken would never make it today without a serious do-over. He was as un-PC as they come.
Not the Bill Maher self-styled version, or the Ann Coulter types who make wild statements just to see what faux outrage they can generate. He was the real issue, and held some incredible animus to various groups of people, even by today’s nasty standards. He held particular scorn for the religious fundamentalists of his day, back before it was cool to do so. And most of his other contemptuous leanings would most certainly not be cool today, IYKWIMAITTYD.
But when he was at his best, oh, he knew how to wield that dagger to make it hurt, against the BS of the day.
I’m thinking Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert are doing a fine job of keeping Mencken’s spirit alive and well. And they did figure out how to make a living at it
I’ve been watching “Save by the Bell” this morning instead of the usual cheerleading on CNBC. The actors are much more attractive and the acts are a lot less desperate.
I cannot think of another actor that annoys and creeps me out more than Mario Lopez.
Jim Cramer
LOL
I’m the last one who would ever be accused of holding a candle for Hollywood, but… aren’t you being a little unfair toward actors?
Anyone on SBTB is much better than the character in the morning for CNBC. I only watch it for the facts and data; but one must suffer through the nauseating economic cheerleading.
I remember being an associate at a law firm in 1999. Financial news channels were kept on at all times in certain conference rooms and many of the partners would have their lunch in such rooms with their eyes glued to the screen. They even ordered huge wide screens for this specific purpose. They went unused once 2000 hit, and quickly became obsolete.
Rush
Hey - don’t be hatin’ on my boys from Canada. They…
Oh wait - nevermind.
“If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.” That’s the very height of profound when you’re in High School.
Rush is from Mizurrah.
Guess you didn’t get the reference - I was referring to the band Rush (from Canada). They’re awesome in many ways (I’m a big prog rock fan), including having a strong libertarian theme in their music. I believe the main lyricist Neal Peart is a big Ayn Rand fan in fact.
Packman, a good friend of mine and former bandmate is one of those Rush Superfans who travels to shows all over North America, has scores of fan-recorded shows, has some of Peart’s sticks from a show, etc., etc. He was recently photographed for a Chicago Tribune article in his basement surrounded by a bunch of Rush swag and his somewhat Peartian drum kit (though to be fair, he added pieces on to make it look more Peartian for the shoot).
At any rate, it was only a week or two ago he sat me down to listen to the (Rand-inspired) 2112 in its vinyl glory. Hadn’t heard it in years. (The band pictures on 2112 always make me laugh, too.)
20th year anniversary of Saved by the Bell this year.
Just saw this morning a news report about demolishing new homes. I guess it’s cheaper to demolish them than to try to sell them. 16 of them in Victorville. The builder went bankrupt and the city was placing fines on the bank. It was on KTLA this morning.
Uh-oh, I may have just landed in spam hell. I posted a you tube link twice. Just go to you tube and search “Victorville”
This was commonplace in the Houston area and other parts of the “oil patch” in the 1980s.
Nice! During the previous bubble burst (early 1990s) in those parts of California, instead of bulldozing empty houses, they brought in welfare types to the high desert from Los Angeles and Bakersfield. Of course, the existing residents, whose house values already have been declining, were p.o.’d
Maybe this explains why it is more economical to build half-completed homes than to finish them (or sell the partially-completed homes to the highest bidder)?
I saw the same thing done in Alaska years ago.
In Texas its only about $10k to have a house demolished and cleared.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/orl-link-mike-thomas-050509,0,3335547.column
A commentary from the Orlando Sentinel on taxes in Florida.
Well Weez, that’s pretty much spot on. If I stay in Florida, I will most likely never buy a house since I didn’t buy in 1993.
Muggy, You always return to Rottenchester, NY. Housing there is a good as money in the bank;) (according to the NY real estate sales Crime Syndicate).
That’s because there are tons of secure high paying jobs.
…and great weather!
…and Garbage Plates!
I was in Buffalo last week and drove to Rochester to check out my old haunts from college intern days. Unfortunately they closed at 8 and I got there at 815. Denied. No plate for me!
BTW, I’d forgotten how beautiful rural NY is. 15 miles outta Rochester and it gets very rural. The stretch between Buffalo and Rochester is very nice.
“BTW, I’d forgotten how beautiful rural NY is.”
Correction: You’ve forgotten how beatiful rural NY is for three months of the year.
Feh. Put on some layers, strap on some snowshoes or x-country skis and get out there.
Blech. Be my guest SNS. I lived it for 34 years.
LOL. Yeah, its easy for me to say. In most cases, I drive to snow if I want it. Otherwise, if it snows here it rarely lasts more than a week or so.
PS - where do you live now exeter? I know you’ve thought about moving to C. Oregon. If cold and snow isn’t palatable you might think twice about that.
SNS, OR high desert is still a consideration. Earning a living and the cold there are the two drawbacks but I don’t think the winters there are remotely close to the misery I was born into in VT. If I’m mistaken about the short winters in OR, please say so.
In all seriousness, Exeter, I love everything about Rochester. The crappy weather, greasy food, long winters… I really do want to return, but the job thing…
Understood. Probably in the same way I love WestPawlet and Wells, VT and miss being able to drop in the homestead on a moments notice.
“It’s the economy stupid” has never been more accurate of an expression than now. It just gets worse there.
Hey, Ex, now I’m confused — where do you live? (I thought VT)
Downstate NY. Work in Westchester, currently reside in Dutchess within walking distance to CT border…… at the moment but subject to change, possibly very soon.
The Save Our Homes (SOH) amendment in Florida requires taxes to increase up to the market value of the house (as judged by the Property Appraiser) or by 3% whichever is less.
Florida’s economy has long been based on luring retirees from up North to sell their expensive house and purchase a cheap one down here. Problem is that as those folks age, their income would not keep up with the market value of their homes. So they would get “taxed out”. Hence, SOH was passed so grandma wouldn’t get thrown out in the street.
The amendment is fine and does not cause a long term burden, unless a bunch of house flippers move in, borrowing money from shady bankers and double & triple house prices over just a few years. In that situation, when the market tanks, house flippers are stuck paying triple the taxes as their long term, prudent neighbors. Charlie Crist’s amendment 1 (also known as the house flipper bail out initiative) started out as an attempt to dump SOH. But the ensuing outcry forced it to completely change to an even bigger subsidy. Charlie is a politician from the depth of his soul, and knows who butters his bread.
There is a fix to the mess. Change the way property is assessed. Instead of looking at sale prices, simply assess the median property at 3 times the median income (with a population density factor), and adjust all other properties accordingly. Not only would you have a more accurate assessment, but you would reduce the labor burden on the Property Appraiser (with the associated tax burden). Tax burdens would also not rise faster than income growth. This system has been discussed around Tallahassee, but has been crushed by the home builder’s and realtor’s associations.
“BERNANKE SAYS ECONOMY IS BOTTOMING AND WILL TURN UPWARD BY YEAR-END”
http://tinyurl.com/c45cwe
FB’s and realturds alike will take this as 2005 is here again.
“FB’s and realturds”
…and bovine-brained stock market investors…
Those that could not see a bubble can clearly see a recovery?
I guess after so many gargantuan misses on previous forecasts, one might want to take this one with a grain of salt. On second thought, make that an entire bucket of salt, washed down with a commensurate quantity of Margaritas…
On second thought, make that an entire bucket of salt, washed down with a commensurate quantity of Margaritas…
But then you might get excommunimicated, or something….
(A tease proceeding from your post last night. )
And they’ll force a recovery no matter how much money they need to print, nor how much they need to prop up the market, and no matter how many houses they need to destroy to make sure supply is less than demand to keep prices high… right…
Yep…and then there will be horrendous inflation
“Bernanke: Economy should grow again later in 2009
AP – FILE — In a Feb. 18, 2009 file photo Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at the National Press … By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer Jeannine Aversa, Ap Economics Writer – 4 mins ago
WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Tuesday that the economy should pull out of a recession and start growing again later this year…”
Ah, YES! We seem to have reached a permanently high plateau…
it’s all contained
Given all the pumping - it wouldn’t surprise me at all to growth in late 2009.
Caveats:
- The measures of that growth being tweaked appropriately (e.g. the way Q1 earnings were by the FASB changes)
- I don’t believe the growth will be sustained more than 2 quarters at best, before we get back to “negative growth”. Whether that’s considered a new recession or a continuation of the current one remains to be seen. (FWIW - technically the 1938 recession was considered a seperate recession.)
I.e., as happened in the “double dip” recession of the early 1980s?
Yep.
Bernanke: “Economy should grow again later in 2009″
And I closed all my positions to lock in profits as he said this.
Ha, ha. Good move. If I had any profits to lock, I would definitely do the same as soon as Bernanke opened his mouth.
Anyway, I am glad I watched this short squeeze from the fence. But now with Bernanke officially calling the bottom, maybe it is time gradually and very carefully to reload the shorts.
That dipshit has zero credibility. Spent his whole life studying the Great Depression and didn’t learn a goddamn thing. The entire body of knowledge this guy has is worthless because he failed to understand one simple fact:
One a Great Depression starts there isn’t anything you can do to stop it from running its course.
He has the facts, the figures, the details down pat. But the basic conclusion is beyond him.
No, no - he can make the situation worse AND help secure loot for his masters… But fixing the Depression, no, he can’t do that.
Agreed. He can make it much worse, and protect his buddies. I stand behind my alias.
Any thoughts on at what point circumstances will force the top leadership at the Fed to move past the denial phase of the housing bubble stages of grief?
Riots? WW3? A giant meteor? Godzilla?
A progression in the stock market similar to that of the Great Depression? Yahoo’s TechTicker guys were looking at the fact that the market crash of the GD included 4 or 5 bear-rallies, each one lasting an average of about 4 months and each time the market rallied about 30% from its new low before falling again. How long has this rally lasted? Aren’t we up about 30% now? Don’t bear market rallies frequently collapse on ‘good news’? Hmmmm…
Now that I see some shack prices falling 50% below their previous prices(in northeast), I make that fact a topic of conversation from time to time. The common thread among all the replies? “Grab it” or “buy it quick!”.
The delusion still runs deep folks.
It was good to see in the Phila Inquirer today that Phila is bucking the national “trend” of increasing pending house sales.
Middle class New York City renters behind on rent and facing eviction.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/05/nyregion/05evict.html?em
“Lawyers, judges and tenant advocates say the staggering economy has sent an increasing number of middle-class renters across New York City to the brink of eviction, straining the legal and financial services of city agencies and charities. Suddenly, residents of middle-class havens like Rego Park in Queens and Riverdale in the Bronx are crowding into the city’s already burdened housing courts, long known as poor people’s court.”
“Even some affluent people in high-end places are finding themselves facing off with landlords. One man, laid off by Merrill Lynch, was forced to move out of his $5,700 apartment in TriBeCa, owing $20,000 in back rent.”
Yet another risk for apartment owners.
Man, it would be a great time to forage in NYC. I still have an awesome mahogany coffee table I got from a trash pile. I rode home with it on the subway. Lol, I love NYC.
The housing courts always go by the name of “poor people’s court”? Cripes…
So why aren’t we bailing out the renters and giving them moratoriums?
I’m down on the coast for a couple days.
Corpus Christi school district closed down until at least May 13 because of swine flu. There is only one confirmed case, but suspected cases swelled to 499 on Monday, which triggered the decision to close the schools. Private schools have followed suit.
From the Caller-Times:
CCISD, with an enrollment of 38,474 is one of the larger districts in the state to close. Fort Worth, Brownsville and Laredo also have closed. There are 476,631 Texas students out of school relating to swine flu concerns, according to the Texas Education Agency.
A minor point. IMO, face masks (N95 only, as of now and this is not medical advice) are exactly like ammo: they are cheap when not needed, they store well - almost forever - if kept properly, and when they are really needed, either they are impossible to find or you have to wait in a mile-long line to get them. No-brainer - buy a box of 50 or 100 - after the panic subsides and prices are normal - and stick it in the back of your closet. When the panic comes next, as it will, keep what you think you will need and help your family and friends with the rest.
Ron Paul’s Economic Theories Winning GOP Converts
Congressman’s Clout Grows Within GOP Minority, Among Some Dems
By David Weigel 5/5/09 6:00 AM
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) and Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) (bachmann.house.gov, Flickr)
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) and Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas)
From time to time, a few members of Congress—as many as 10, sometimes fewer—gather with Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) to eat lunch and hear from an author or expert whose opinion he thinks is worth promoting. They grab something to eat off of a deli plate. They take notes. They loosen up and ask questions.
“It’s not all that easy for the other members to get here,” Paul said in an interview with TWI, sitting just outside of his office before heading back to Texas for a few days. “It’s just that there’s so much competition. Once they get here and they get going, they all seem to enjoy it.”
A funny thing has started happening to Paul since his long-shot presidential campaign ended quietly in the summer of 2008. More Republicans have started listening to him. There are the media requests from Fox Business Channel and talk radio, where he’s given airtime to inveigh on sound money and macroeconomics. There is HR 1207 , the Federal Reserve Transparency Act of 2009, a bill that would launch an audit of the Federal Reserve System, and which has attracted 112 co-sponsors. When Paul introduced the Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act just two years ago, no other members of Congress signed on.
And then there are the luncheons. The off-the-record talks have brought in speakers such as ex-CIA counterterrorism expert Michael Scheuer, libertarian investigative reporter James Bovard, iconoclastic terrorism scholar Robert Pape, and George Washington University law professor Jonathan Turley. Perhaps the most influential guest has been Thomas Woods, a conservative scholar whose previous books include “The Politically Incorrect Guide to American History” and “Who Killed the Constitution?: The Fate of American Liberty from World War I to George W. Bush,” and whose current book “Meltdown” has inspired Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) to question Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner about economic fundamentals.
Paul’s unexpected and sudden clout with his fellow Republicans — even some of Paul’s staff have been surprised with the momentum of his “Audit the Fed” bill — come as the GOP engages in a tortured internal dialogue about its future. Since January, no small number of new coalitions have formed between current members of Congress, former advisors to President George W. Bush, and perennial party leaders such as former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-Mass.) and former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-Fla.). Few of those conservatives, however, have spent much time criticizing the very foundations of America’s modern economic system and worrying about a 1929-style crash. Few of them had a drawer stuffed with off-brand economic ideas and forgotten libertarian texts, ready to explain what needed to be done. Ron Paul did, and as a result the ideas that made the Republican establishment irate enough to bounce him from a few primary debates are more popular than ever.
If the GOP ever got back to true fiscal conservatism, they’d have something. Every GOP congressman should listen to Ron Paul.
How did the Fed manage to escape the checks and balances that the founding fathers built into the Constitution?
It’s amazing what the PTB can accomplish given a bad enough crisis. Just look at all the unconstitutional or extra-constitutional powers granted in the name of our various crises:
- Civil war (suspension of habeous corpus)
- 1907 panic (creation of Federal Reserve)
- GD (creation of FDIC, FHA, Social Security, FNM etc etc)
- 9/11 (Patriot Act; declaration of war against an entity who was not a real threat)
- Housing Bubble (Advent of socialistic powers)
etc etc (There are probably some from WWII though I couldn’t think of any off the top of my head)
Never waste a good crisis.
The suspension of Habeas Corpus IS Constitutional. See Art. I sec. 9 para. 2.
“The privilege of the Writ of Habeas Corpus shall not be suspended, unless with in Cases of Rebellion or Invasion the public Safety may require it.”
Clearly the US Civil War was a “case of rebellion or invasion.”
But Lincoln didn’t suspend Habeas Corpus in the south - he suspended it in the north, in response to graft protests.
The argument is whether such protests would be considered an act of rebellion or not - certainly other graft protests haven’t been though, at least not that I’m aware.
I know you meant draft protests, but graft protests fits the current times so well.
LOL - yeah I meant to say “conscription” actually (= draft) - not sure where I came up with graft - Freudian slip I guess. I didn’t really know the political meaning of graft until looking it up just now, at least as I recall (an early senior-moment I guess).
I’ve been having early senior-moments since middle school. So don’t feel bad.
I assume you mean this as a rhetorical question, seeing as the Fed isn’t part of the government, right? Nor was a central bank outlined in the Constitution
Well I’m not sure I agree. Art. 1 sec. 8 para. 5 gives Congress the power “to coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin….” Sounds like they have some power to set up something like the Fed if they desire.
You’re getting the functions of the Mint and the Federal Reserve confused. They are fundamentally different.
“regulate the Value thereof” refers to denominations of coins - e.g. 1 ounce of gold is worth $20 and such; again a mint function not a Federal Reserve function.
Actually technically the value regulation I believe is a function of Congress not the mint. Either way - it’s constitutionally *not* a function of the Federal Reserve.
How did the Fed manage to escape the checks and balances that the founding fathers built into the Constitution?
If you mean that literally, read the Creature from Jekyll Island.
LOL - you realize that we could not afford our current military apparatus under true fiscal conservatism. That would not exactly play very well in the current Republican strongholds.
The biggest problem with the Republican party is the hypocrisy necessary to support both the Constitution and the Bible.
I’ll be a Republican the day they let go of the religious right.
“…problem with the Republican party is the hypocrisy necessary to support both the Constitution and the Bible”
Dang, just go ahead and throw the bacon on the sizzling grill!
God, …she must love the democraps…she made so many of them.
What are you doing for “Thanksgiving?”
You’ve fallen into the MSM trap of concluding that everyone who holds religious beliefs wants to force them governmentally on everyone else.
During the last election cycle, everyone from George Bush on down to Bobby Jindal, on the subject of “universal” health care, said something along the effect of, “Medical care should be between a patient and a doctor. The government should not be involved.”
What they avoided saying was, “…unless of course, the health care in question is against our religious supporters beliefs, i.e., abortion, birth control, assisted suicide…”
This need to speak out of two sides of the mouth, one side to the moderate masses the other side to the religious zealots, is a hallmark of the modern republican politician.
Has nothing to do with the MSM, the founding fathers or the “dumbing down of America”, and everything to do with Karl Rove’s genius in exploiting the religious right to oppose the “godless” democrats.
It worked great until it didn’t.
The “Religious Right” consists almost entirely of Protestant Fundamentalists and Evangelicals. Neither group has a problem with birth control, as long as it is practiced by married couples.
They also rarely have a problem with divorce and remarriage, even though it is forbidden in the New Testament (where it is equated to adultery).
You forgot gay rights.
I never said anything about the Republican party - you did. I was addressing your general assertion that someone couldn’t support the Bible and the Constitution, which applies to Dems also BTW - or didn’t you notice that Obama goes to a Christian church?
So either:
A) Obama and many Dems are hypocrites in that they go to Christian churches but don’t support the Bible, or
B) Your generality of the Republican party - or anybody for that matter - being unable to support the Constitution because they support the Bible is false.
Which is it?
I haven’t seen any mention of abortion, birth control, or euthanasia in either the Bible or in the Constitution. So I don’t see how any of these have anything to do with your statement about said hypocrisy.
I was addressing your general assertion that someone couldn’t support the Bible and the Constitution, which applies to Dems also BTW - or didn’t you notice that Obama goes to a Christian church?
Point taken.
All I was trying to point out is that the more activist religious people tend to support the Republicans and it is they who think that the Constitution is secondary to the bible.
Doesn’t mean it hasn’t happened, but I cannot remember an instance of a Democrat saying that the Constitution needed to be amended to be more in line with “God’s law”.
As far as gay rights go, I don’t care what consenting adult you sleep with - but the the fear of two people of the same sex sharing a life has been more of a boon to the Republicans (because of religion) than it has to the Dems.
Bible - same sex bad
Constitution - All created equal
I see a distinct conflict there and it was ultimately disastrous for the Repubs to use the Christians like they did because eventually unavoidable incompatibilities like this caught up with them.
My opinion, anyway.
Neither group has a problem with birth control, as long as it is practiced by married couples.
Who was it that George W Bush was trying to satisfy when he passed the “right of conscience” rule?
… hypocrisy necessary to support both the Constitution and the Bible
LOL - yeah because everyone knows the actual authors of the Constitution were such atheists.
You’ve fallen into the MSM trap of concluding that everyone who holds religious beliefs wants to force them governmentally on everyone else. It’s part of the dumbing down of America.
The founding fathers were deists more than anything else and they were thoroughly steeped in the humanist precepts of the enlightenment.
They obviously knew enough about dogmatic religion to insist on the separation of Church and State which is far more than I can say about the current crop of republicans.
Of course, most democrats these days are almost equally idiotic although they have yet to elevate anyone at the same level of irrationality as Michelle Bachman to the national stage.
I reiterate, YET.
and it is working!
I’ve personally met some of the leaders of the “religious right.” They are very, very scary people. Sleaze and megalomania just oozes from them.
*shudder*
Now people are entitled to believe in what they want, but the separation of church and state was created for a reason.
TESTIFY.
(Hahahaha! Get it? )
The history of theocracic rule and a quick look at the current theocratic states will tell you everything you need to know about religious rule.
Logic,science, and debate are trumped by a loud race to the most fundamental positions. This in order to prove that you are the most religious and thus deserve to rule over all others. Once in power your enemies are quickly dispensed with by calling them infadels, heratics, or sinners. You can hide your sins by constantly calling on people to rise up against the great SATAN. Once in power it is important to dumb down the population so book burning and religious indoctrination instead of science become the norm.
Every decade the percentage of atheists in America out of the total population slowly increases. In 1990 it was 8%. In 2000 it was 14%. The latest survey showed 15%. I anticipate 30% in twenty years.
It will be a significant change, and a very welcome one in politics, since the backers of free enterprise will not be sidetracked by pleasing the Bible thumpers.
It could be Democrats versus Libertarians and not Democrats versus Republicans. The party that allows the most individual rights will trump the other party.
I hope you’re right. But I fear it will be Dems vs Socialists for who can give Americans the most free stuff while taxing the “rich” the most.
Got a link and/or source for that PB? Thanks.
Google knows: http://washingtonindependent.com/41786/ron-pauls-economic-theories-winning-gop-converts?ref=fp3
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/hearing/2009/05/questions_for_ben_bernanke.html
Nah - wrong newspaper. There’s no way WaPo would print such a thing.
I found it though (surprised it was already on Google) -
http://washingtonindependent.com/41786/ron-pauls-economic-theories-winning-gop-converts
This was not meant to be a response to your query; I tried to do so, but it looks like rearden was first.
Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann — Kook and Kookier!
LOL
Not.
Ron Paul has been the one sane congressman during this whole mess. He saw it coming, tried to warn everyone, and is now trying to avert future disasters that will surely come of the massive government and Fed financial meddling.
I know nothing abou Michele Bachmann - today’s the first I’ve heard of her.
You have got to be kidding. That nutjob and her blahblahblah hasn’t entered your hearing range? How lucky for you!
Embarrasing to think she is one of my ‘tribe’. ewwwwwwww.
meaning ,female.
She reminds me so much of Katherine Harris, and we know what happened to her. Blew up internally, or else the boobs and makeup were too much to handle, em, I mean. Neveryoumind!
Actually the kooks were and are the ones calling Ron Paul a kook.
Just like Dave Ramsey calling Peter Schiff and idiot. Well D.R. is the biggest idiot.
Goodness gracious, glad to hear it from you. DR is over. So over.
Longtime lurker here (and still a renter). This is a great blog, and I will be contributing asap. Thanks Ben! Speaking of Ron Paul, if KY Senator Jim Bunning decides not to see re-election, Ron Paul’s son Rand will most-likely enter the GOP Primary. Looks like I may be changing my party designation from Independent to Republican…
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/tx/6404481.html
Why change parties? Just vote your conscious. You really have to have a label to fit in?
In KY, you must be registered Republican to vote in the Republican primary.
Go, Ron Paul! He is the enemy of collectivists and neocons (a redundancy), but I believe that he speaks the truth and more than any congressman/person in the House, he walks what he talks. He doesn’t demand private taxpayer-funded airplanes, he doesn’t vote for bills that will benefit his relatives, he opposes foreign interventions (note the nascense of the “Talban”) even though it might benefit the military-industrial complex. He may be the last “real deal” that America “had,” relative to the abysmal hypocrisy and political system we have today. I won’t be around more than another ten years or so — maybe more than Hoz and less than Hwy50. I am happy that Dr. Paul was here, in my time, to represent my views. Without him, Paulson, Bernanke, Timmy and the rest would more quickly have made mincemeat of us, I think. For you younger folks, I hope that a good, strong semblance of Ron Paul appears on the political stage, because someday he will have to retire. And for those who disagree — heck, you apparently have the majority of the votes in this country these days, so why waste your time slamming my views on this?
Check out BJ Lawson, in one of your neighboring states. He’s much younger than Ron Paul, and ran for Congress in 2008. He’s a new Ron Paul.
Will do. Thanks for the heads up.
Asia Times Online
Page 1 of 2
MONETARISM ENTERS BANKRUPTCY: Part 2
The burden of elitism
By Henry C K Liu
This report is the second in a series.
Part 1: Monetarism enters bankruptcy
…
The fact is: while banks are indispensable for a working economy, badly-run banks ignoring sound banking principles are not. What is needed in a depression is not more central bank money for distressed banks suffering losses on loans from collapsed assets prices, but government deficit money to sustain full employment with living wages.
In popular parlance, the Fed is the government-paid doctor of Wall Street through taking care of the banking system it regulates, with unlimited state power to create money backed by the full credit of the United States, a nation founded as a democratic republic in which sovereign wealth is supposed to belong to the people, not the banks. Yet the Fed is not the doctor of Main Street where the nation’s wealth is created through full employment and living wages.
Instead, under market capitalism, the fate of Main Street is left to the manipulated workings of market forces shaped by central bank money freely available to the financial elite beyond the understanding, control and even awareness of most retail-market participants. Thus market forces are manipulated to favor those institutions deemed too big to fail, and at the expense of the general public who are hapless participants in a manipulated financial market.
Central bankers are savvy enough to know that while they can create money, they cannot create wealth. To bind money to wealth, central bankers must fight inflation as if it were a financial plague. But the first law of growth economics states that to create wealth through growth, some inflation must be tolerated. The solution then is to make the working poor pay for the pain of inflation by giving the rich a bigger share of the monetized wealth created via inflation, so that the loss of purchasing power from inflation is mostly borne by the low-wage working poor, and not by the owners of capital, the monetary value of which is protection from inflation.
Inflation is deemed benign as long as wages rise at a slower pace than asset prices. The monetarist iron law of wages worked in the industrial age, with the resultant excess capacity absorbed by conspicuous consumption of the moneyed class, although it eventually heralded in the age of revolutions. But the iron law of wages no longer works in the post-industrial age, in which growth can only come from demand management because overcapacity has grown beyond the ability of conspicuous consumption of a few to absorb in an economic democracy.
…
The Fed has opted to throw Main Street under the bus in order to save Wall Street.
PB,
You must understand….. Wall Street must be first to the feeding trough. We need rich people. And the banks…… the poor banks!!!!
The Fed is Wall Street, Wall Street is the Fed.
Congress is supposed to look after Main Street. Unfortunately, Wall Street also owns Congress.
Make sure that a country that is 75% retail driven has workers that are making living wages? What are you? Some kinda damn commie/socialeest?
That’s just crazy talk!
http://tinyurl.com/de4l6l
Check out the chart. Real disposable income declining since 1981…… when the failure known as supply side was implimented.
Imagine that.
Excellent article, PB. Thanks for posting that.
Any chance this will have to be sorted out in a court of law?
Bernanke contradicts B. of A.’s Lewis on Merrill
By Greg Robb
Last update: 11:15 a.m. EDT May 5, 2009
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke denied that he urged Bank of America chief executive Kenneth Lewis to hold back disclosure on the true extent of Merrill Lynch’s coming fourth-quarter losses until after shareholders approved the bank’s purchase of the troubled brokerage. “I absolutely did not in any way ask Mr. Lewis to obscure any disclosures or fail to report information he should be reporting,” Bernanke told the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.
Is it me - or is there maybe a setup happening to scoot BB out the door? Looking at it:
- He was appointed by the Bush admin
- He’s got this conflict going
- He totally missed the scope of the bubble until too late (baton handoff from AG)
- He put out some really questionable rosy projections today
I’m wondering if maybe this fall when his rosy projections prove false, if that, combined with the Lewis conflict, may be enough for the Obama administration to fire him.
In SU 2007 BB said the extent of the subprime collapse would be limited to $200bn worth of financial damage. Given the prior record of massively underestimating the scope of this crisis, why would a miss on a fall 2009 bottom call matter one iota?
Just remember:
Ben “there is no housing bubble” Bernanke.
Maybe it’s just because it’s today - but this call seems to be getting a lot more media attention than his 2007 call. Also an actual bottom-call is a bigger deal than an estimate of the damage (off as it was). Also in 2007 he only had 1 year in office - now he’s had 3 and thus “should know better” than to be overly optimistic.
Probably it will get lost in the shuffle of all the other bottom-calls - I’m just putting it out there that there seem to be a lot of recent things that can be used against him to push him out.
I’ve been led to believe that office was set up to overlap the President’s by two years, so that one President can leave an unfriendly Fed Chair for the next. Good luck with that.
Who might we replace Bernanke with should he actually be ousted?
According to recent Radar Logic data, San Diego home prices are stuck at a permanently-low plateau of about $200/sq ft. Sell now, or get priced in forever!
SD on Radar looks like the down-side slope might start to look like the gradual slope up during 2000 - 2002. Or, I suppose it could very well turn to look more like Phoenix or LV, with downslopes nowhere near resembling their 2000-2002 upslopes. It will be interesting to watch.
Site offers info on data gathering methodology, but Mr. Professor (Sir), can you kindly offer a Cliff Notes version on Radar’s calc methods for price per sq foot? Is it homes sold or homes listed? I imagine they stick with an original baseline of zip codes?
- I believe the raw data is sale price and square foot of homes that sold over the relevant period.
- My impression is that they take a simple numeric average of sale price per square foot over the relevant time horizon, but I have not checked their documentation to verify this.
Thanks. I like these graphs and need to find time to read the methodology info.
Please post a link to the documentation (if you have one) and I will take a look at it, too.
For some reason, I am unable to get the link to post. There is a “Methodology” tab on the site with lots of info to wade through.
Update from “THE FORTRESS” of the Bay Area.
Menlo Park is PETRIFIED that foreclosures are going to affect their property values. (Which, in fact, is starting to happen. Prices are down 10%+ in the cheap areas)
Their plan? Buy up the delinquent mortgages at a discount, then the city will pay for 30% of the house for you.
That’s right! If you’re in the club of loan-owners in Menlo Park, go delinquent and let them try and strongarm the banks down 10-15%, then drop another 30% deduction on your principal payment.
Menlo Park is officially in the Fear phase and definitely showing signs of moving into the Bargaining phase.
That is positively disgusting!!!
It’s getting really old trying to be a responsible, law-abiding citizen who’s committed to living a debt-free life.
“Hate” is not strong enough to convey my feelings for these filthy pigs.
Cinco de Mayo, Cinco de Mayo! A good one to Ben and every other HBBer!
I was gonna draw on a big mustache so I could be General Ignacio Zaragosa, but I rrremembered I have a lunch meeting today, so I didn’t.
I’m still gonna celebrrrrate in small but meaningful ways though, such as by grrrandly rrrrrolling every single ‘r’ I prrrronounce today. Si! Oh, and I’ll loudly shout ‘Dam*n the Frrrrrench!’ (although I often do that, all year rrround, so that’s not especially rrare.)
Oh, and I’m gonna drink a whoooole bunch of marrrgarrritas later, and consume mass amounts of guacamole con totopos whilst wearrrring a giant flapping sombrrrerrro.
‘Ai ai ai ai….’
*sings a mariachi sort of chorus *
I’m going to celebrate by opening a roofing company and Mexican restaurant…….you know, that stuff that us U.S. Americans don’t want to do, and such as……..
Ai! Tus ideas siempre son maravilloso!
(Your ideas are always marvelous!)
Sinkful of Mayonnaise…
This is the first time you lost me.
I mean: lost my understanding.
Oh, wait! It was an accent thingie!
NOW I get it! Hahaah!
…. What a nut you are. *laughs more *
And to think I imagined you in with a matador cape and a rose clenched between your teeth.
My last post about Menlo Park trying to buy up delinquent mortgages to protect their precious house values is in link-limbo, so no link for this, but :
Microsoft laying off more people today.
Yep, there’s a green shoot for ya!
Microsoft laying off more people today.
Really?
*stops singing and sits up *
But, but, but, that can’t be….I thought we were different here?
In New Future, no jobs are needed.
Consumers will go out into the fields and graze on the green shoots provided by the generous FED.
In Soviet Amerika, green shoots eat you!
Maybe we’ll get solyent green shoots.
The free market works!!! These banks don`t need a bail out.
Making babies
Strapped men are lining up to donate sperm at Xytex’s two Georgia sperm bank centers. Spokesman Christopher Karow believes financial pressure is driving the 9% increase in volunteers since September. Men make $195 to $300 donating three times a week, the limit. “Students are doing it to offset the cost of their education, books and housing, where before they did it for recreation money,” Karow says.
Women, too, are asking their reproductive organs for some return on investment. The World Egg Bank in Phoenix fields about 450 inquiries a week, up from 250 last fall. “I believe that egg donors are not any different from the general population looking for quick and creative ways of coping with the quick turn in our economy,” says Diana Thomas, the company president.
At the Colorado Center for Reproductive Medicine, egg donors get $5,000 to $5,500 per donation, the limit considered ethical by the American Society for Reproductive Medicine, which suggests limiting a woman to six donations. “I’ve definitely heard where donors have been compensated in five figures,” says Dr. Eric Surrey, the director of the center and past president of the society. He’s seen a “slight” increase in inquiries. He and Thomas said that because of rigorous screening, the percentage of women who become donors is unchanged.
The real money is in gestational surrogacy, in which a woman carries a pregnancy that’s unrelated to her. With applicants up 35% to 40% this year, the Center for Surrogate Parenting in Encino, Calif., and Annapolis, Md., dropped its compensation by $2,000 to make the service more accessible to couples, says Karen Synesiou, the director. Surrogates receive $20,000 to $35,000 per delivery. But it can run more: 16 years ago, one grateful couple purchased the home their surrogate had been renting, worth $140,000, and gave it to her.
Prospective surrogates are more focused on money than before, rate-shopping among agencies and trying to negotiate higher rates, she says. They’re more likely to take only a six-month break between pregnancies rather than the recommended year, telling Synesiou that they want savings in case of unemployment.
Guys are getting paid for sperm donations? I see a business opportunity here.
Offering to provide ‘draft’ for free?
Thinking about starting a small business. You can probably get a loan from the stimulus package but be careful there is probably a penalty for early withdrawal.
If I were a man, this would be my new career.
Seriously. You guys have all the luck.
BTW, to be a surrogate, I’d charge at least $1,000,000. Pregnancy sucks!
I’m just off to the bank to make a deposit….
This kind of banking brings the liquidity concept into a completely different light.
After a few beers, I make a liquidity deposit too.
Do you get paid for that?
Well, I haven’t looked at the “golden shower” services but, in theory, yes!
In practice so far though ….
If I were a woman I would have a few beers and mosey on over to the World Egg Bank, egg donors get $5,000 to $5,500 per donation. Which tells me the chicken came last. I have never seen a $5,000 chicken.
“If I were a woman I would have a few beers and mosey on over to the World Egg Bank, egg donors get $5,000 to $5,500 per donation.”
LOL. Does seem tempting when you put it like that. Unfortunately, donating eggs requires lots of annoyances, like avoidance of alcohol, daily injections leading up to the removal surgery, and abstinence unless you want to take a chance on becoming the next octomom. I did it once, but only because it was for a friend I knew well. And there was no compensation involved. A mere $5k doesn’t cover it by a long shot, in my opinion. And this isn’t even counting the moral issue of whether you want to sell your DNA (of course, guys also have that issue, so that’s not unique to selling eggs).
AC,
Very true. It’s not at all the same as a man’s donation.
You also have to take a pretty gnarly drug that stimulates ovlulation, no?
$5,000 doesn’t even begin to cover it.
I’m pulling my little red wagon (named HOG) down to this coffee shop, but don’t worry I’m not leaving home without it! (Amex)
Diedrich Coffee among surging coffee stocks:
May 5th, 2009, by Nancy Luna, Staff Writer OC Register
“There is probably no better example of how crazy things have gotten with coffee stocks recently than Diedrich Coffee. This stock has gained well over a 1000% from where it broke out in March. The surge in both volume and price over the past few weeks has been quite remarkable, and it will be interesting to see how deep the pullback will be once it begins to correct,” according Forbes’ Investopedia.com
“Men make $195 to $300 donating three times a week”
Wonder how they determine who gets $195 and who gets $300?
whoops, meant to post in Jeff’s thread.
There’s probably a “model” based on age, motility and count.
LOL
These very matter-of-fact ratings, especially that particular subject matter, must be brutal to self-esteem. I think most people would not bother getting out of bed if they knew what insurance company ratings and statistics say about them.
Great, now the gov’t is subsidizing car purchases. Yet another way to keep people in debt, go out and buy an overpriced new car. I guess the gov’t figures this program is needed since the house ATM has been shutdown. How else can we get back to purchasing 16 million cars per year?
I can also envision people purchasing clunkers for a hundred bucks, turning it in and buying a subsidized new car, and then flipping the car to another buyer pocketing the difference.
The article says the program is for only a year but we all know how gov’t programs tend to last forever. This will become a subsidize forever relied on by the domestic auto industry.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090505/us_nm/us_energy_autos
Yeah no unintended consequences there.
I would *love* if someone would do a study on the actual environmental / energy impact of this move. I would venture that it’s horrible for the environment, due to all the extra energy used to produce these new cars. Yeah sure they’ll get better gas mileage, but there’s quite an energy and resource penalty to retiring a car before its time, even if it’s a clunker.
Man, I need to go buy a crappy $100 buck car so I can use this to buy myself a Mini Cooper at 25% off.
Wait, that won’t help the Amurrican car companies? Well, maybe if they’d build a car I’d like to own I’d help them out.
Now might be a good time to buy a MINI. Last time I was at the dealer they were overflowing with inventory.
Who knows? You might even get it for “invoice” price.
I want to get the clubman as I have a wee kid in an infant car seat, and have plans on aquiring another, but no more than 2. Seems like the mini would be a fun car and just the right size!
We can’t run an economy based on debt, unless SOMEONE is loaning money to people that can’t pay it back. Government has stepped into that role of loaning money to people that can’t pay it back.
You got it, Darrell!
It won’t help at all. How will a few thou off a 30K car help?
Yeah but we all get to save the environment.
How else can we get back to purchasing 16 million cars per year?
In a nation of WalMart salaries it will take more than a 4K subsidy to get the working poor to buy $30K cars. Besides that, the clunkers have to be destroyed, so they can’t be traded or sold. Most “clunkers” that run ok are worth at least 2 grand, which dilutes the value of the subsidy if they are destroyed.
That plan has been effect in Texas for years.
Here’s how it really works: The dealers get most of the special permits and whatever is left go to the public.
You apply and are told there is a year or more waiting list… because the dealers have most of the permit.
You go to the dealer and they lowball you on your trade-in, sell the beater to auction and pocket the auction money AND the difference in what they offered you and what the state actually paid them.
Yesterday I got a letter from BoA telling me that are cutting my limit on my credit card through them from $10K to $5K.
No big as I have $0 balance and haven’t used that card in like 4 years. But, it did keep my FICO up by reducing the debt/limit ratio.
Must be tough on those people that are living on credit card debt, having their limits cut while the rates and fees keep going up.
I got a similar letter from them. Didn’t know I had a credit card from them. So I called to make sure someone hadn’t taken one out in my name. Apparently they sent one 5 years ago & I never activated it. I asked how long they would be sending me information about something I don’t have and will never use. Gal said she didn’t know. American business at its finest…
Hi all. Thanks for your questions about the Grand Rapids house yesterday. Yes, we found a little 2-story, 105-year-old house for my sister for only $35,000. It was sold to us by a widow whose husband lived in it before they were married. It is in the “black” neighborhood on the west side, which makes it much cheaper than houses on the “white” east side. The neighborhood is old, small houses with tidy yards. This one is three beds, one bath, 1150 sq ft on 1.4 acres, with a little detached garage. Pretty new roof and new windows, but everything else is old.
She’s having a great time cleaning and painting.
Now I’m a real estate “investor” - ha ha ha!
Nice job. At that price-point and tenant who you want to see housed, I can see no real downside. Unless she were to decide she didn’t want to live there, you couldn’t rent it, and you couldn’t sell it. But even then, your downside seems very limited.
Nice. At those prices, I’d buy too.
+1 on this.
Downside is very limited.
On a side note, that’s what I look for always. Limited downside.
Like SRS?
Not needling, I’m still seriously wondering, sittin’ out here on the fence…
Plus, you got good karma for helping out your sister.
And, more important than the karma, since the house is 105 years old she’ll be kept busy painting and so forth, and won’t have as much time to call you up and ask you for ‘a little help’.
Everyone wins, here, is what I think
Oly, you read my mind!
My dear, delusional, HBB’rs
The Stock Market is a “forward looking, discounting mechanism.” I wish you HBBr’s would finally get this simple truth.
Sooner or later the Last Bear Market Rally will be the Last Bear Market Rally. This is the “psychology of the market”. It may take 9 or 10 of these, but so what? It’s not Wall Streets money, now is it?
If we just keep buying into these rally’s at the top before they crash back, then we will all be rich! We just have to “buy and hold” and the market will always come back in a generation or two.
All of this bad news is “priced in” and the “green shoots” are what we need to consider. Confidence and optimism are all that’s required. Those of you who must use numbers, analysis, and skepticism are just all wrong and snarky.
I’m just so frustrated with you HBBr’s and your denial of this wonderful rising stock market and the “bottomed out and turned around housing market”. The crisis is over, and we will have “smooth sailing and blue sky’s” as far as we can see.
Olygal, tell them for me, please! They just don’t get it.
Roidy
P.S. Someone please explain this post to the sarcasm challenged among us.
P.S.S. Ben, will there be a Florida trip this summer?
I’m just so frustrated with you HBBr’s and your denial of this wonderful rising stock market and the “bottomed out and turned around housing market”. The crisis is over, and we will have “smooth sailing and blue sky’s” as far as we can see.
Olygal, tell them for me, please! They just don’t get it.
Yeah, HBBers! Jeeze, man. Yer just all totally negative and everything. Have you gone and forgot the healing power of positive thinking?
With your ticky little ‘realism’ and terrifying math and depressing statistic stuff—yer totally harshing the mellow of those of us who KNOW better.
So you know what? Here’s what. My dear pal Pollyanna and me are gonna put on our cutest sunbonnets and then skip on over and systematically b*tch-slap the grumpiness spang right outta all of you! Hooray!
Alphabetically, even.*
And then when the grumpy and icky negative thoughts are alllll slapped out and gone, we will jump upon our magical winged pink ponies and prance merrily around the meadow among the green shoots singing ‘Happy Days Are Here Again’, until our checks for millions of dollars arrive, which will be immediately.
(How was that, Roidy? Satisfactory? I only exist to serve, you know… )
*Who would be first? I haven’t kept a tabulation of names.
(hiccup)
My real name is Aaron Aanerud… I guess I get to go first?
(kidding)
I bet it really is your name, huh!
But as you know—there’s the ‘fun’ slapping and then the ‘instructive’ slapping.
So I’ll go ahead and consult with Pollyanna and we’ll put you down for the first sort, shall we?
I am hoping that Ron Paul’s proposal to audit the Fed comes to pass, and that the audit includes an inquiry into measures taken to prop up the stock market.
Pretty soon we are going to be taxed on all of our losses, just wait.
May 5, 2009, 7:01 am
West Coast Job Market Woes
By Edward L. Glaeser
Edward L. Glaeser is an economics professor at Harvard.
Is this recession easing up or slouching toward 1929? It depends on where you live.
…
The good news is on the East Coast. Between February and March, the unemployment rate fell in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, the District of Columbia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia. The unemployment rates in Maine, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Virginia and Florida were all unchanged. New Hampshire was the only state on the Atlantic Seaboard where unemployment went up, from 6.3 percent to a still low 6.6 percent.
The really bad news is on the West Coast and in parts of the Midwest.
The unemployment rate in California increased by one-half percentage point to 11.5 percent. That state now has 19 metropolitan areas with double-digit unemployment rates. Oregon increased by 1.2 percentage points to 12.9 percent. Washington State increased from 9.1 to 9.7 percent. Michigan already had the highest unemployment rate in the country in February, and it increased another seven-tenths of a percentage point to 13.4 percent. Unemployment rates also increased in Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana.
Unemployment rates also generally increased in the Southwest, but in those places, like New Mexico and even Arizona, unemployment remains modest, generally below 8 percent. It is striking to compare the highly Hispanic communities of Texas, such as Brownsville or McAllen, where unemployment rates are in single digits, with the highly Hispanic communities of California, such as El Centro or Merced, where unemployment is over 20 percent.
Across metropolitan areas, there was what economists call divergence. Places that started with higher levels of unemployment saw their unemployment rates increase further, as shown in the attached graph, which shows only those metropolitan areas with more than 500,000. Instead of spreading nationwide, the crisis seems to be hitting particular areas of the country ever more severely.
Why is this pattern emerging? I have written consistently on New York City’s strengths — competition, skills, industrial diversity — which seem to be enabling it to weather the downturn relatively well. In the latest numbers, the city’s unemployment rate has fallen from 8.4 to 8.2 percent. Perhaps the strength of the East Coast reflects the strengths of New York City writ large.
What about all the bailout money that has been showered on Wall Street? Shouldn’t that be weighed in as a factor in New York City’s economic strength?
Very interesting.
The reason the heavily Hispanic areas of El Centro and Merced have a much higher unemployment rate than the heavily Hispanic areas of Texas such as Brownsville or McAllen is: Seasonal farm labor.
Wow, Michigan unemployment rate at 13.4% and Oregon now up to 12.9%! I’m heartened that many east coast areas are adding jobs. It makes sense. My sister relocated from highly unemployed California to lower unemployment rate Maryland. And Maryland unemployment rate is going down.
I got two headhunter calls on my cell phone today. Haven’t had that for a few months. Also some e-mails from headhunters the last few days. I’m good through October in LA but I’m anticipating going back to the east coast. Going for the highest $. If that’s in California, all for the better!
Thanks for sharing that, Bill.
Good luck on your next job assignment!
Why is the government so intent on trying to keep people indebted? It is trying to support house prices, car prices, encourage personal lending (I accept the premise behind business lending - get money now, build wealth, pay off later, net increase in wealth. But personal lending to buy depreciating consumer goods? WTH?)
In addition to being owned by the FIRE industries, heavily indebted people are easier to govern I think too. They have to work to service the debt. They are more beholden to the system.
On the other hand… might the heavily indebted be more interested in seeing the current order overthrown?
Just thinking out loud.
Neuromance,
You are asking the right questions. I’m putting on my libertarian hat now (adjusting…okay).
Yes, a mortgage slave is a sitting duck for higher property taxes and higher state taxes of sales and income.
Of course, I’m a tax-deferred plan slave of my own choice and the ba$tard$ of the government might raid those plans. So I’m stuck kind of.
On the other hand, gold reacts in the upward direction to new slavery policies. So I figure it’s okay to be a sheep and be in total aggressive stock funds in my 401ks and IRAs. Gold will rescue me from the totalitarian Pelosi.
just wandering.
Banker: ‘What’d I Do Wrong, Officer?’ Cop: ‘You’ve Got Algae in the Pool, Sir’
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124112509277274533.html
“INDIO, Calif. — Officials at a Citigroup Inc. office in St. Louis placed a call to this desert town recently. The bank had caught word that Indio was coming after the lending giant with fines and threats of criminal charges. The offense: an algae-infested swimming pool at 79760 Eagle Bend Court.
Citigroup wound up in charge of the foreclosed home, one of thousands of such properties it was managing across the country. But last year, Indio passed a law that allowed it to charge banks with a criminal misdemeanor if they allowed a home to fall into disrepair.
“If I need to do it, I’ll say, ‘Mr. Bank President, if you don’t come and take care of your property, we’re going to come arrest you and take you to court in California,’” says Brad Ramos, Indio’s long-serving police chief.”"
…later… “On Austin Drive, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.’s Washington Mutual bank had a real-estate agent water some dead grass after receiving a warning from Indio. On Palm View Street, Fannie Mae spent $7,000 to remove a fallen tree and took care of a few broken windows. Indio says it’s still pursuing Bank of New York Mellon Corp., the trustee of a property on Avenida Linda Vista where weeds were “four to five feet tall.”
It’s a tale of two cities. In Coachella, Calif., foreclosed homes are left to deteriorate and drag down housing prices. But in neighboring Indio, city officials have threatened banks with legal action if foreclosed houses aren’t maintained. Nicholas Casey reports.
Lenders say that such repairs and upkeep are part of the normal course of business, and that Indio’s ordinance hasn’t prompted any special actions. A Washington Mutual spokesman said local real-estate agents send in photos of bank-owned properties so the lender can watch for disrepair from afar. A Fannie Mae spokeswoman said the lender’s first goal is to “stabilize neighborhoods.” New York Mellon said its role as trustee didn’t merit citations from Indio.”
Some recent posts were by hbb’ers who saw houses briefly listed for pre-bubble prices, but then were priced much higher when listed on the MLS, and were wondering how that was happening. This article suggests a possible way: these banks are having realtors handle the curbside details of their REO properties to keep them out of court. That could mean they don’t have anyone in-house to do it, and don’t even hire services. I can see an ideal inside track for the realtor.
I wonder how many other banks are doing it the same way? If the legal threats become commonplace, what choice will the banks have but to unload? The mold & bugs and everything else will be serious issues to contend with, and not something any aspiring owner would be thrilled about right off the bat, unless the price was really low to begin with.
Probably wishful thinking.
NYTimes today.
May 5, 2009
Once ‘Very Good Rent Payers’ Now Facing Eviction
By MANNY FERNANDEZ
A registered nurse came close to losing her $1,550-a-month apartment on the Upper East Side after being let go from two jobs in three months. A woman found herself dipping into a 401(k) to keep her $3,375 unit in Peter Cooper Village after her husband was laid off in February from his six-figure marketing job. A father of two with an M.B.A. and a law degree owed $5,400 in back rent in Stuyvesant Town after he struggled to find steady work and lent money to his wife’s family.
Lawyers, judges and tenant advocates say the staggering economy has sent an increasing number of middle-class renters across New York City to the brink of eviction, straining the legal and financial services of city agencies and charities. Suddenly, residents of middle-class havens like Rego Park in Queens and Riverdale in the Bronx are crowding into the city’s already burdened housing courts, long known as poor people’s court.
Even some affluent people in high-end places are finding themselves facing off with landlords. One man, laid off by Merrill Lynch, was forced to move out of his $5,700 apartment in TriBeCa, owing $20,000 in back rent. Todd Nahins, a lawyer who represents owners of luxury residential buildings, has been busy negotiating payment plans for tenants in arrears.
“There’s definitely an uptick of people who were basically very good rent payers until the economic downturn,” Mr. Nahins said. “There’s so many of them. People who at one point had made money are now not earning enough to pay their rent.”
No one knows exactly how many of those kinds of tenants are facing eviction; the city’s five housing courts, and two smaller community courts that hear similar cases, do not keep data on the income level of litigants. Overall, court records show that the number of cases filed citywide for nonpayment of rent jumped about 19 percent in the first two months of 2009 from the same period last year, to 42,257 from 35,588.
“It’s cutting across all lines,” said Jaya K. Madhavan, supervising judge of Bronx Housing Court. “The economy is really taking a toll on everyone.”
While the downturn has certainly put plenty of lower-income people at risk of eviction, those involved in the housing court system say the growing numbers of accountants, salespeople, small business owners, construction project managers and other white-collar professionals being pursued for nonpayment is striking.
Lawyers for District Council 37, the city’s largest public employee union, provided free legal assistance to members on 2,572 housing court cases last year, up from 2,277 in 2006. “People who never had eviction cases before are coming through our doors now,” said Joan L. Beranbaum, director of the union’s Municipal Employees Legal Services.
On the Upper East Side, the nonprofit Eviction Intervention Services has seen a spike in phone calls and office visits from tenants in rent-stabilized or rent-controlled apartments. In Bronx Housing Court, Room 360, which handles cases concerning units in co-ops and condominiums — which are often more expensive than those in rental apartment buildings — had 10,205 cases last year, up from 7,818 in 2007.
Landlords typically start nonpayment proceedings in housing court after a few months of missed rent, depending in part on a tenant’s previous payment history; the goal is usually not eviction. “It’s not about, ‘If you don’t have the money, get the hell out,’ ” Mr. Nahins said. “It’s about, ‘Look, we want to work it out.’ Nobody wants vacancies in high-end apartments.”
Diane Scott, a single mother on Staten Island, lost her home to foreclosure in 2007 after she was laid off as a $72,000-a-year legal recruiter, only to be threatened with eviction from her $1,750 apartment when her $40,000-a-year bookkeeping job was eliminated in June. After appearing in housing court in February, Ms. Scott, 42, said she had been unable to tell her three sons they might again have to move.
Kevin Brewster-Streeks, 29, and his partner, Greg Armstrong, 22, struggled to pay their $1,650 rent on Mr. Armstrong’s $18-an-hour salary as a medical assistant after Mr. Brewster-Streeks’s $36,450 job as a records clerk at a law firm was eliminated last year.
They borrowed $2,000 from relatives and friends and racked up $8,000 in credit-card debt. Mr. Armstrong withdrew about $4,000 from two pension and retirement accounts, and Mr. Brewster-Streeks started working as a hospital clerk for less than half of his previous pay. But they could not keep up: after two bouts in housing court, they moved out in February, owing nearly $7,000 in back rent.
“It’s kind of dehumanizing,” Mr. Brewster-Streeks said of the experience. “They see you as a certain kind of person. We’ve never been that certain kind of person.”
Mr. Armstrong stopped attending classes at LaGuardia Community College for two semesters and took so much time off from work to deal with the court case that he earned a negative job review. Along with legal help from District Council 37, of which Mr. Armstrong is a member, the couple got an emergency loan from the city’s Human Resources Administration.
They moved from a two-bedroom unit with ample closet space near Van Cortlandt Park in the Bronx to a one bedroom with two small closets at the edge of the Cross-Bronx Expressway. The rent is $500 less, but they still have to pay off what they owe on the previous place, along with the $5,650 loan.
“It’s going to take us a couple of years to get back from this,” Mr. Armstrong said.
For months, Christine A. Lewis, 46, has been living a kind of nomadic existence in her own apartment, using borrowed furniture, wearing borrowed clothing. Her own belongings — bed, clothes, computer, television set — were put in storage after a city marshal knocked on the door of her one-bedroom apartment in Co-Op City in the Bronx in June with an eviction order. She managed to quickly negotiate a return, but has been unable to raise $1,600 to pay off the storage company and get her possessions back.
So when her son died from bone cancer in December at age 18, Ms. Lewis had to borrow a suit to wear to the funeral.
Ms. Lewis said she lost her job as a $52,000-a-year hospital lab technologist because she was unable to concentrate during her son’s illness, and has been surviving since on unemployment benefits. She paid off $2,800 in back rent, but still worries about keeping up.
“It’s horrible and all, but I try to look at everything as if the glass is half full, as a learning experience,” she said.
“her $1,550-a-month apartment on the Upper East Side”
Have rents fallen that much to an upper east side apt for under $2K a month?