May 7, 2009

Bits Bucket For May 7, 2009

Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here. Please visit the HBB Forum. And see the American Visionaries series from Schwarzfilm.




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364 Comments »

Comment by pressboardbox
2009-05-07 05:48:35

Looks like the scam of the century is being pulled off right before our eyes and the whole world is high-fiving each other over how clever we are.

Comment by Al
2009-05-07 06:11:26

I heard a hedge fund manager (can’t remember the name) talking to a business journalist (Fred Langdon, CBC) this morning. The manager seemed to have a fairly good grasp of the stress test, identifying that several banks will need more money to cover losses in their mortgage portfolios, and that the tests were likely not stressful enough. I was reasonably impressed. Then he said that converting preferred to common shares should be enough to cover their needs, thus losing my respect.

 
Comment by oxide
2009-05-07 06:14:25

I thought 2002-2007 was the actual scam. The current scam is the clean-up scam. Something like that.

Comment by packman
2009-05-07 06:17:03

1997-2007 was the setup for the 2008-??? scam.

 
Comment by polly
2009-05-07 08:43:48

The DC rule is always that it is not the crime that gets you. It is the coverup.

Comment by Julius
2009-05-07 08:51:35

Here there’s no need for a coverup - most Americans are either applauding Obama’s “efforts” or are too dim to understand their implications.

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Comment by packman
2009-05-07 09:20:08

The problem is that part of the cover-up itself is making the whole financial system so complex that anyone that doesn’t have at least a 130 IQ and a related business degree is too “dim” to understand the implications.

It’s hard to protest when you don’t know exactly who or what to protest against.

I include myself in that dim-witted group BTW. I’ve tried educating myself on places like this HBB, and learned a lot, but still there’s so much that’s either too damn complex or just too behind-the-scenes to really know what’s truly going on, and therefore to find a reasonably-specific target to protest against.

 
Comment by BanteringBear
2009-05-07 11:05:36

Packman is right in that things are so complicated and complex, and non-transparent, that the average American has absolutely no way of understanding what is going on. It’s all behind closed doors, and on the down-low.

 
Comment by Don't Know Nothin About Buyin No House
2009-05-07 12:16:56

“It’s hard to protest when you don’t know exactly who or what to protest against.”

Good one.

 
Comment by Don't Know Nothin About Buyin No House
2009-05-07 13:25:11

BB, when you say, “It’s all behind closed doors, and on the down-low”, isn’t it really the opposite?

US Gov and most large corporations were at one time more or less comprised of a defined group of accountable leadership that, at the very least, understood and were responsible for the budget, base operations, deliverables and so forth of their group, department, division or company. Behind closed doors happened often.

Today’s new power centers are the efficiencies and speed of technology, software algorithms, and matrixed-to-the-max, multi-level work groups. Accountability is now spread across many, and the large sweeping winds of egalitarian groups and technology rule more today than a few old guys with cigars. Interesting last week when Obama said he was surprised how he had no power to get things done and that it was all about influencing a myriad of different groups (matrixes) at all different levels. Paraphrasing.

When people look back at the carnage of the stock market, out of control financial sectors and the housing bubble, technology’s ability to be inclusive and create a level playing field for many, it’s role in speed and decentralization of control and accountability, and the absence of laws and controls to meet those technology-based changes will take much of the blame. 1929 market crash happened right around a major change in the speed and ease of stock trading technology and inclusion of more people in the games. Gov responded with new rules in the most obvious offensives, and after a huge recession/depression, we moved on to bigger and better. Unfortunately, Gov does not just focus on new legislation and control, they spend valuable time, money, and resources trying to catch horses that have left the barn and make matters worse.

As we all say, the complexities are staggering and nowhere to point the fix-it-gun or even launch a protest.

 
 
Comment by polly
2009-05-07 09:35:06

Well, I was referring to the bankers and applying the DC politician rule to them. Notice that no one is getting in any trouble over having made loans to people who couldn’t hope to ever pay them back, but they are getting yelled just a little bit (from blogs and a few columnists, not the government and not FASB) for trying to pretend they are still solvent.

Speaking of understanding things, I just started dowloading and listening to NPR’s Planet Money podcast. It is excellent for a lay person.

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Comment by BanteringBear
2009-05-07 11:07:54

Even more upsetting to me than the bank bailout, is the fact that none of the major players are being called to the carpet, or better yet arrested and prosecuted, for the crimes committed during this horrendous rip-off.

 
 
 
 
Comment by packman
2009-05-07 06:15:43

“An obligation? Aren’t you old-fashioned Jim. There aren’t any obligations except the necessity of the moment.”

- Mr. Weatherby - government bureaucrat in Atlas Shrugged, in reference to the bondholder contracts

Just happened to get to that chapter this morning on the way to work, and though it was pretty apropos this month.

Comment by milkcrate
2009-05-07 06:43:39

Packman:
I was in Barnes and Noble yesterday and saw they had a copy of that book prominently displayed with other classics. It wasn’t being sold at a discount. I browse that section and had not noticed it before.
I was in the store to get No. 8 in the “Dear Dumb Diary” series from author Jim Benton, which features characters such as Blondwad and “Margaret the pencil chewer.” For the kid’s bookshelf. :)

Comment by packman
2009-05-07 06:47:59

It’s a very popular book these days. There was a WSJ article recently in fact discussing it’s popularity. I had wait about a month to get it from the library on CD.

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Comment by REhobbyist
2009-05-07 06:54:16

I can’t stand Ayn Rand. Boring. It’s more interesting to read about her than to read her.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 10:41:54

I can’t stand Ayn Rand. Boring. It’s more interesting to read about her than to read her.

When I read ‘Atlas Shrugged’ I thought she was super wonderful. Of course, I was about 15 and going through that stage.
You know the stage I mean, where you go around wearing black turtlenecks and sit in your room listening to whiney androgenous boys singing on the radio about off*ing themselves, and moping around the house sighing theatrically, and then when no one listens, sighing again, louder and more theatrically, before going back to your room to write terrible poetry about how life is naught but a hollow blasted shell of doom and sorrow?
Thatstage.:roll:
Fortunately, I blew through that stage really fast. Whew!

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 10:43:06

Testing my eye-roll

:roll:

 
Comment by whyoung
2009-05-07 11:21:35

My 16 year old god daughter says those types are called “Emos” now.

 
Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-05-07 11:47:25

I thought they were called republicans now.

 
Comment by packman
2009-05-07 12:18:16

I thought they were called republicans now.

LOL - don’t let aladinsane hear you say that. His love for Rand is matched only by his hatred for Pubs.

 
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2009-05-07 12:20:16

Nice, but you dis the only book that reads like a map about today’s Washington events. Also you are making a futile attempt to disuade new young readers from seeing her ideas in A.S. If you can write something better, do so or go back to the peanut gallery. Some nerve. You probably feel so superior to make such peanut gallery attacks on a book that sold millions of copies.

You should write a book about your wit and wisdom. Only one page long I bet…

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 12:54:05

Also you are making a futile attempt to disuade new young readers from seeing her ideas in A.S.

Heckfire, nohow! I think it should be REQUIRED reading for all teens. I sincerely mean that. Along with Dune, Sylvia Plath’s poetry, H.P. Lovecraft, the Bible and a detailed manual on hormones and how you’ll learn to manage them someday, hopefully, and you won’t really go blind meanwhile.
The world would be a better place.

If you can write something better, do so or go back to the peanut gallery.

Okay, I accept your challenge. (giggle) Hmmm. Okay, here I go!

“Atlas Dropped the Thingie and Went to Have a Beer”
Chapter 1: There’s this, like, one guy who is smarter and more purposeful than eveyone else, and without flaw. He don’t even have a freakin’ re*ct*um, is how busy and how flawless he is, because having one of them would waste time, and also be a flaw. There’s all these other dingles running around trying to waste his time and getting in the way, who secretly hate him, because they lack merit and ambition and have re*ct*ums, but he just ignores them, because verily he is focused and stuff. He’s above that sort of stupidness. He wears a black turtleneck and he accidentally marries a dumb girl.

(That’s just the first chapter. I’ll write the next one after lunch.)

on a book that sold millions of copies.

Is that your criteria for greatness? Because so did ‘Monthly Doos: the 2009 Dog Poop Calendar’, and anything ever written by Jackie Collins.

 
Comment by oxide
2009-05-07 14:06:54

Nice, but you dis the only book that reads like a map about today’s Washington events.

How is Atlas Shrugged about today’s Washington events? I thought Rand sang the praises of no government, which were the Washington events during Greenspan’s tenure. And now we see that the result of this Randian fantasy is a multi-trillion dollar version of the Invisible Hand conducting a larrge-scale Tragedy of the Commons. Which would be fine, except that in this country you get one vote per person, not one vote per dollar.

The Washington events of today involve borrowing money to replant the Commons, hopefully for the good of everyone. Not Randian at all.

 
Comment by X-GSfixer
2009-05-07 14:31:04

“Atlas Dropped………”

ROTFLMAO!!!!!!

Too bad you missed episode 5 of “The Bubblefather” a few days ago. I think you would have appreciated it :)

Clemenza: “Leave the house……take the cannoli”.

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-05-07 14:42:30

How is Atlas Shrugged about today’s Washington events?

I’m guessing you haven’t read the book then? Atlas Shrugged isn’t simply a description of some utopia. It’s an illustration/story of what happens/goes wrong when the current course of action and policies are taken to their logical conclusion.

Do you really think there was no regulation during Greenspan’s tenure? No intervention by the government? Who appointed Greenspan? Who created the Federal Reserve? Who gives them the power to regulate/influence interest rates? Calling anything in the history of the US “free market capitalism” and then asserting that it hasn’t worked is a terrible straw man.

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-05-07 14:54:29

I went through my Ayn Rand stage also Olygal. Reminded me of some of the science fiction books I read.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 15:01:02

Clemenza: “Leave the house……take the cannoli”.

Have I ever told you I do an AWESOME Clemenza? It is true, I do. Everytime I make spaghetti I do it Clemenza style ‘The secret is in the sugar…’
I don’t even care if there’s an audience, I do it for the style. And it always makes the spaghetti turn out better, somehow.
:)

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 17:06:14

I went through my Ayn Rand stage also Olygal. Reminded me of some of the science fiction books I read.

Which ones are those you speak of, SanFran? I bet I read every science fiction book ever written in the world. Luckily most of them were lacking in that especially turgid, weighty, and humorless Randian sensibility…

(giggle. Okay, yes. I’m just tryin’ to start a flame, I admit it…I’ve had a particularly successful day today and it makes me feisty. :) )

 
Comment by ahansen
2009-05-07 21:05:35

Oly, that was the best reverse flame of the last three months. At least.

 
 
 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2009-05-07 06:18:45

YUP

and then they will have a 45 day window to screw as many credit card holders as possible before the new strict laws take effect

I think millions will cut up their cards and say sue me s*ittBankypoo….

I ain’t a takin that middle fingah frum U no mo!

 
 
Comment by Muggy
Comment by KJ
2009-05-07 06:18:31

Guess that’s what having a Democrat controlled city for 50 years will do to, not to mention the complete destruction of local industry by unions.

I can’t wait until we apply this model to the entire economy.

Comment by scdave
2009-05-07 09:28:43

I can’t wait until we apply this model to the entire economy ??

We already did…2000-2008…

 
Comment by Northeastener
2009-05-07 11:05:28

Guess that’s what having a Democrat controlled city for 50 years will do to, not to mention the complete destruction of local industry by unions.

And how exactly do you explain the prosperity of Boston? A democratic city in a democratic state… this has nothing to do with politics per se, rather it has everything to do with the job base: the penchant for companies to move jobs to lower cost areas in the US or overseas. Unions didn’t destory the economy either. If anything, you had better pray that unions make a comeback because they are all that stands between Wall St. and moving every US job possible to Chindia… but thanks for playing partisan politics and standing up for executives and investor class everywhere. Hope that works out for you.

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-05-07 11:51:52

Unions were long ago coopted by the government and became part of the problem. Back in the 1800’s people died for trying to set them up. By the 1940’s, the government embraced them, legalized them, and neutered them. Now the unions take your money so they can be well paid to trade wage increases today for pensions that will never be paid out tomorrow. Now the workers get screwed by the companies, the government, and the unions. Used to be just two of them were putting the screws to you.

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Comment by Northeastener
2009-05-07 13:37:20

Now the workers get screwed by the companies, the government, and the unions. Used to be just two of them were putting the screws to you.

Somebody is always getting screwed… my point is that without strengthening the unions, labor in the US is destined to see continued weakness in wages and benefits while the investor class continues to grow their concentration of wealth. This isn’t some abstract problem to be dealt with some time in the future, but a reality for millions of workers today who have seen their jobs offshored or relocated to a more “business-friendly” state, usually in the South.

It goes to the root of our economy and the idea that we are a service-based economy. You can’t base an economy on selling “services” to each other. You produce something of value that the rest of the world needs (i.e. exports) and maintain a positive trade balance or you accumulate debt (until you can’t). The crux of the problem is labor vs. capital. Labor in this country has been severely weakened through “free-trade” while capital (and those that profit from it) have had free reign.

This is the “quality-of-life adjustment” we keep talking about. Unions, or any collective bargaining of labor, is the only way to ensure that the quality of life for the average American doesn’t decline to the point of Mexico or China while Wall St. continues to get rich off.

 
Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-05-07 14:37:40

My point is that Unions no longer protect their employees. They exist to enrich Union Leaders by providing that illusion.

And tell me exactly how a union will keep a company from shipping jobs overseas? Seems to me like they’re a pretty good reason to do so.

Unions won’t break the financiers. Revolution might. I doubt that anything short of that will, as nobody seems to be willing to ‘vote the bums out’ without ‘voting the other bums in’ in this republic. Trust busting is required, and the UAW and Teamsters qualify as trusts as much as the wall street fat cats.

 
Comment by KJ
2009-05-07 17:31:54

Unions provide an environment where those that can’t or won’t are protected. It provides no incentive for anyone to go above and beyond the bare minimum.

Someone tell me an industry that is heavily unionized that has prospered in the past 10-20 years. Auto? Airlines? Steel? How’d all that work out for you union members?

 
Comment by exeter
2009-05-07 18:52:33

It’s working out fantastic. Dues were at an all time high in 2008. ;)

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-05-07 21:56:45

Someone tell me an industry that is heavily unionized that has prospered in the past 10-20 years.

Government? Certainly that has prospered, and in many cases they’re heavily unionized.

 
 
 
 
Comment by skroodle
2009-05-07 06:32:01

Rochester is another city whose job base is shrinking.

Does IBM employ anyone there anymore? Eastman Kodak isn’t exactly doing well these days either.

Comment by REhobbyist
2009-05-07 06:44:38

I’m hoping that Kodak will make a comeback. We bought one of their printer/scanners that uses ten dollar ink cartridges.

Comment by scdave
2009-05-07 09:37:31

uses ten dollar ink cartridges ??

Interesting…I am tired of paying $120. for my Dell cartridges…I will look into it…

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Comment by Bad Chile
2009-05-07 09:58:04

Why buy ink cartridges when a new printer is the same price?

That is my model. I know it ain’t green, but for the same price as new cartridges every few years I get a new printer with better features.

 
Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2009-05-07 11:25:39

I just send my prints to Costco when I want it printed on photo paper. It’s very cheap.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 13:53:46

That is my model. I know it ain’t green, but for the same price as new cartridges every few years I get a new printer with better features.

This is true. And it aggravates the blazes out of me. I remember the day when I realized I could run the ink out of a little cheapo printer I got on sale for casual printing stuff, use it until the ink ran out, then unhook and toss the thing in the garbage and go get another one for cheaper than buying replacement cartridges. How mad I was.
What is WRONG with this picture?! So to speak?!

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-05-07 14:58:06

You can also buy the ink cartridges refill kits or take them to your local drug store and pay to have them refill your ink cartridges.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2009-05-07 06:53:13

At least we have lilacs.

Comment by Muggy
2009-05-07 06:59:14

And Vinny anda Angelo! Mingya!

 
Comment by phillygal
2009-05-07 07:04:53

And that is saying something.

My former neighbor - The Good - had planted a hedge of lilacs separating his property from ours. The hedge ran about 60 feet, before the grapevine took over as the dividing line. May mornings offered a special treat, when I’d walk out my back door and the scent of the lilacs drifted across to my deck, even though we were separated by 100 feet or so of lawn.

Then he moved and Hellboy came. He did not maintain any of the plantings left by The Good, in fact added his own atrocities. By the time we’d sold our house in 2005, the lilac hedge and grapevine were overrun with invaders. I drove by my old place the other day. Spawn of Satan had completely torn out the lovely lilac hedge. There’s nothing there but dirt.

The moral of the story is:
Enjoy your lilacs while you can. Some d-head might move in next door and ruin everything.

Comment by hd74man
2009-05-07 08:09:04

RE: Some d-head might move in next door and ruin everything.

Gettin’ a good and decent neighbor is a real crapshoot nowadays.

I think it’s one of those things that in past, most people took for granted.

No more.

With the decay of society today, it’s no longer a gimme.

Get the wrong azzhole-and life can become a living nightmare.

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Comment by Bob in Vegas
2009-05-07 08:25:46

This is a great reason for renting - if you don’t like the neighbors, it’s easy to pack up and move…

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 11:01:09

This is a great reason for renting - if you don’t like the neighbors, it’s easy to pack up and move…

What, like to the presence of a newer, fresher, slightly different a*ss*hole neighbor?
Look, the best answer here is to run away into the woods to live, like me. Plus, then you can grow a foot-long beard, and experiment with botanicals, and build a still, and listen to frogs all night, and hang out with Bigfoot, and when you get home from work only wear clothes when and if you feel like it, weather permitting, like me.*

*Except for the foot-long beard part. That was a test of your reading comprehension. Also, I don’t have the whole still fully assembled yet. I think I’m missing some vital parts. It was from a garage sale.

 
Comment by MrBubble
2009-05-07 11:40:23

A day without pants is a great day!

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 13:54:56

:)
Yer like a philosopher, there, Mr. Bubble!

 
Comment by hd74man
2009-05-07 14:53:58

RE: *Except for the foot-long beard part

I’m glad you aterisked.

The mental image of beards and female nakedness was causing me real problems!

 
 
Comment by InMontana
2009-05-07 08:11:10

Or plant your own. Both houses I bought, the sellers didn’t plant one tree or hedge or anything. And didn’t water what they had.

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Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-07 09:22:18

I had a neighbor who took OUT every single tree in his yard… in a land where 100 F summers are normal.

 
Comment by Elanor
2009-05-07 09:38:17

Ecofeco, that reminds me of Mr. T, who bought a piece of property in tony Lake Forest, IL and proceeded to cut down every tree, ostensibly because of his allergies.

That prompted a bunch of towns to pass ordinances requiring permits to cut down a tree on your own property.

 
Comment by Julius
2009-05-07 10:00:02

“…pass ordinances requiring permits to cut down a tree on your own property.”

The irony in this statement is awfully intense.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 10:01:42

Really?! Well! My adoration and love of Mr. T is hereby declared COMPLETELY OVER!
Soon as I get the chance, I’m gonna kick down the shrine I built to him, is how over him I now am.

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-05-07 10:05:15

The irony in this statement is awfully intense.

Yes, property rights at their finest. Ugh.

 
Comment by packman
2009-05-07 10:14:58

Property rights are going by the wayside. E.g. in DC they’re now giving people parking tickets for parking in their own driveway.

 
Comment by Elanor
2009-05-07 10:41:27

Yes, we have Tree Nazis in these parts. Please, please consider that a Seinfeld reference and NOT a Holocaust one, OK?

It’s too bad that while regulating the flora and fauna, many town councils have given a free pass to people wanting to build oversized starter castles on small suburban lots. But that, of course, is all about the property taxes.

 
Comment by Muggy
2009-05-07 11:08:27

“Really?! Well! My adoration and love of Mr. T is hereby declared COMPLETELY OVER!”

Hmm, it sounds like you pity the fool.

 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-07 11:41:50

Now you know how those crazy regulations get passed in the first place.

Some dumb person goes and messes it up for everybody else.

And WOW! Mr. T cut down his trees? Dang.

 
Comment by DennisN
2009-05-07 11:47:06

San Jose has a “city arborist” who runs a scam. He drives around neighborhoods and tags trees that are “not on the approved list”. You will be fined for having such and must replace it with one on the “approved list”.

Oh yeah, you also have to pay $$$ for a permit to remove said tree prior to planting a new one. The arborist’s condemnation notice may not be used in lieu of a permit.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 13:17:02

Hmm, it sounds like you pity the fool.

:lol:

 
 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 08:27:53

In the dooryard fronting an old farm-house near the white-wash’d palings,
Stands the lilac-bush tall-growing with heart-shaped leaves of rich green,
With many a pointed blossom rising delicate, with the perfume strong I love,
With every leaf a miracle — and from this bush in the dooryard,
With delicate-color’d blossoms and heart-shaped leaves of rich green,
A sprig with its flower I break.

(’When lilacs last in the dooryard bloom’d’
Walt Whitman)

I love lilacs. One of my earliest memories is of (yes, really) ’standing in the dooryard of an old farm house near the white-washed palings’ and smelling lilacs. Although I wasn’t thinking about Abe Lincoln or Civil Wars or contemplating my own mortality.
I was simply wiggled into the branches of a giant old lilac on a spring evening and smelling lilacs and new green grass and freshly turned-over red clay soil, and that was enough. This was in the tiny town of Benjamin, Utarr, where I spent my earliest youth. And I MEAN ‘tiny’—it was a crossroads and a gas station and farms spread around it.

I’ve planted lilacs everywhere I ever lived.
Oh, gosh, nostalgia is killin’ me now.

Comment by Claire
2009-05-07 13:16:30

I remember the lilacs where I grew up - now I think I may have to go out and buy one - do you think they’ll live in a large pot for a few years before I get to plant it (I’m still renting)?

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Comment by polly
2009-05-07 13:56:47

There are dwarf lilacs that should be OK in a large planter for a while. Then you can plant them near the real lilacs when you buy a place and have multiple levels of lilacs.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 14:03:27

do you think they’ll live in a large pot for a few years before I get to plant it (I’m still renting)?

They’re pretty tough, Claire. When I used to go out looking around in ghost towns and for old homesteads in southern Utarr, often times I would encounter some long-abandoned homestead, sometimes nothing more than rubbley foundation and some glass winking in the sun and there, by where the front door had been long ago, would be standing a gnarled, twisted, sturdy lilac bush.
This is southern Utarr, red-rocks, no rain country, btw. And yet there would be a lilac, growing anyway, by G*od! Undaunted, and if in lilac season, breathing forth glorious perfume onto the hot wind.

Go get a lilac, is what I’m saying, quickly! :)

 
 
 
 
Comment by BanteringBear
2009-05-07 13:22:27

My old neighbor in Kitsap County, WA was a gay man. He had a large group of gay friends who were working together flipping multiple houses in the greater Seattle area until 2006, when they decided to move on to greener pastures. Where did they go? Rochester, NY, to buy up old, “undervalued” homes to fix and flip.

 
 
Comment by darthrealtor
2009-05-07 05:57:01

If a bank that needs $35 billion isn’t technically insolvent then what the ^&*&^?! does it take?

$50 billion, $100 billion?

Keep up the good work Heli-ben!

Comment by Jim A.
2009-05-07 06:10:02

Well banks are supposed to have assets worth MORE than their debts. If they were at parity but their debt levels (for banks those are mostly deposits) required them to be 35B over, this could be possible. Of course so much is dependant on how much you think those assets are worth. Few around here are convinced that there’s not alot of funny business revolving around the value that those assets are carried on their books at. At par? At current market value? Can the bank carry them at a higher value if they have insurance or CDOs on their assets? What if the insurer is also nearing insolvency?

There are SO many ways and places to hide the poo that nobody wants to buy this stuff. Certainly some of these assets will ultimately be worth more than the value the market currently assigns to them, but which ones? It has become obvious to even the dumbest of retirement funds that the ratings agencies can’t be relied upon to pick the wheat from the chaff, so everything is selling at chaff prices.

 
Comment by packman
2009-05-07 06:18:17

“…if we think we can re-inflate the bubble by artificially creating credit out of thin air and calling it capital; believe me, we don’t have a prayer of solving these problems. We have a total misunderstanding of what credit is vs. capital. Capital can’t come from the thin air creation by the Federal Reserve System; capital has to come from savings. We have to work hard, produce, live within our means and what is left over is called capital. This whole idea that we can re-capitalize markets by merely turning on the printing presses and increasing credit is a total fallacy…”
-ron paul

(Sorry, I’m just full of quotes this morning)

Comment by pressboardbox
2009-05-07 07:16:56

Ron Paul for president! what? we already tried that? and nobody supported him? hmmm… I guess you can’t reason with Americans.

 
Comment by Jim A.
2009-05-07 07:17:56

I think that people are discovering that savings can disapear as quickly as any other form of money. It doesn’t matter whether the money was savings, earnings on those savings, or “free money” from the fed. If you lend it to somebody who can’t (or won’t) pay it back it disappears all the same. Printing money doesn’t create wealth, but once printed it is the same as all the rest of the fiat. The wealth is the same. Watered drinks may LOOK like more, but they won’t get you any drunker.

Comment by Blue Skye
2009-05-07 07:55:19

No, but if you are the only guy at the bar paying for your drinks, it gets the other guy a lot drunker.

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Comment by VirginiaTechDan
2009-05-07 10:47:39

The biggest problem is people confuse money with capital. Capital is land, tools, buildings, factories, raw materials, etc. Money simply facilitates trade.

Printing money simply encourages greater consumption at the expense of production and destroys capital.

After the capital is destroyed the system quickly falls apart once it realizes what the *real* losses are. There is no quick way to replace consumed capital.

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Comment by AdamCO
2009-05-07 08:52:16

So what is he getting at…where does ‘the total fallacy’ lead. Massive inflation? That’s the only conclusion I can come to.

But on a daily basis, I’m feeling a lot more deflation than inflation. My monthly grocery bill has dropped from almost $400 to $250 and I buy the same stuff. Cars are cheaper. Services are (generally) cheaper.

Re real estate, It seems that it is in the best interest of the fed to promote inflation and devalue the dollar far enough that the actual asking prices of real estate don’t have to swing down more than 20% from peak. Can this be accomplished?

Comment by drumminj
2009-05-07 09:00:33

Wow, what is it you’re seeing cheaper at the grocery store? That’s a big drop.

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Comment by In Colorado
2009-05-07 09:15:14

Indeed, other some key items like milk I haven’t seen many price drops at either the grocery store or Sam’s Club.

 
Comment by pressboardbox
2009-05-07 09:24:06

Its certainly not potato chips. Are they sprinkling gold dust on ‘em or something?

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 10:02:44

Oooh! ‘Gold dust n’ vinegar’ chips!
I’d buy ‘em. As long as they sparkled prettily in the sunlight, like on a picnic.

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-05-07 15:33:24

Vinegar chips are the best. MMMMM good. :grin:

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 17:10:31

Vinegar chips are the best. MMMMM good.

I always thought so, too. But see, SanFran, we never had gold and vinegar chips. I bet we’d like them even more!

—Did I ever tell you how I gilded apples one time? It was all mythic, entirely edible, and pretty as blazes, too.

 
 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-07 09:27:31

No kidding. Where do you live for that mater?

I saw a small drop earlier this year in goods and services, but since then, everything went up over 20+%.

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Comment by AdamCO
2009-05-07 10:50:35

I live in southwest colorado. It -seems- that meat is cheaper. Produce is definitely quite a bit cheaper. Living in a remote area, I shop about once every three weeks to a month, so mostly I’m just looking at my total outlay on groceries.

Maybe I overstated the drop. I should look at the books for the real numbers.

 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-07 11:32:45

Still, that’s nice. Good for you.

 
Comment by whyoung
2009-05-07 11:35:24

In NYC there is a real variation in grocery prices depending upon the neighborhood. Manhattan is of course pricier, but even in the boroughs there is difference that I’m not entirely sure is rent based…

For example, in my Astoria (Queens) Key Food a package of ground turkey is consistently $3.99, in nearby Greenpoint (Brooklyn) it is always $4.99. (Checked this several times over the last few months) Similar variations for some other basics, not gourmet goodies.

Feels like a bit of a premium for the hipsters…

 
 
 
Comment by Jon
2009-05-07 10:20:32

“We have to work hard, produce, live within our means and what is left over is called capital.”

“We have to work hard, produce”:

You not only have to work hard & produce, but you have to produce things people want to buy. So first you need a job, in an industry that produces things people want to purchase. And there must be an adequate reward for working hard. A level of compensation that will give you the incentive to work hard.

Off-shoring the productive capacity of the United States to countries with very low wages is having a completely negative affect on any effort to get people to “work hard, produce”.

“live within our means”:

Purchasing a house for $200,000 on a full recourse loan with $0 down, taking a HELOC for $50K & reselling the thing for $400,000 is within everyone’s means. You can’t blame Joe 6 pack for not realizing he can’t sell it for $400K when the top bankers and economists in the country don’t realize it either.

“what is left over is called capital”:

Which is best invested in the stock market or a developing country with very low wages. Which, again, does not create any incentive, or ability, to work hard & produce. So Americans are left with bubbles.

Mr. Paul has a very narrow-minded focus on the financial view of the economy and is unable to see the actual production part, which is the part that actually matters.

Comment by packman
2009-05-07 11:08:11

You have a very twisted view of Paul’s view.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 06:44:53

Dumb question of the day: If a bank needs, say, $34.0 billion in capital just to stay afloat, then isn’t it technically bankrupt?

Comment by DinOR
2009-05-07 07:01:03

PB,

Right, and “stress testing” something ex-post-facto ( when it’s readily apparent it has -already- completely failed ) makes it all the more comical.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 07:20:40

Let’s just say the efficient markets hypothesis is pretty much dead in the water at this point as a literally description of how prices are set in the US stock market.

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Comment by DinOR
2009-05-07 08:03:10

PB,

Point taken, but I’ll take it a step further. Like anyone here that rifles through RE listings, be it on C/L or whatever, at some point, the sheer -volume- of vacant homes for sale is… just staggering.

You can’t spend more than 5 seconds per post and unless there’s something truly unique ( like a Liberache inspired decor? ) you’re moving on! Ultimately it dawns on you that ‘in’ an efficient market, the bulk of these property’s value is essentially, “0″.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Pondering the Mess
2009-05-07 10:13:54

It takes as much as it takes until nobody has any money left.

That’s the goal!

 
 
Comment by jeff saturday
2009-05-07 05:59:00

GM posts loss; burns through $10 billion May 7, 2009 7:19 AM ET

All Thomson Reuters newsDETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp said it burned through $10.2 billion in the first quarter, operating under a federal bailout, as auto sales fell across the globe and it scrambled to cut costs.

The automaker on Thursday posted a quarterly net loss of $6 billion, compared with a loss of $3.3 billion a year earlier

Comment by aNYCdj
2009-05-07 06:20:15

And that’s the GOOD news! They were expecting even worse results

Comment by skroodle
2009-05-07 06:34:24

LOL - I heard the same thing on MSNBC. What a wild world we live in when a $6 billion loss moves the market in a positive way.

I wonder how much of the “profit” GM made was due to their own debt going down.?

Comment by polly
2009-05-07 09:06:14

I know they get to book the profit when their debt goes down on the theory that they could buy it all back at a lower cost, but how do you measure it if the hedge funds that own a huge chunk of that debt won’t sell at the market price?

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Comment by jeff saturday
2009-05-07 06:36:17

” it scrambled to cut costs”

For GM, the health care tab is projected to total $46.7 billion
over the lives of about 350,000 retirees and spouses. At Chrysler, it’s $10.9 billion for around 82,000 retirees

Toyota is selling the Prius at a loss, so these guys calculators must be scrambled.

Comment by Skip
2009-05-07 07:31:34

GM canceled health care for mgmt retirees this past January.

I thought the health care for union employees was spun off to separately funded entity?

Comment by jeff saturday
2009-05-07 07:44:59

General Motors Cuts Healthcare for Retirees
November 10, 2008 02:46 PM ET | Emily Brandon
Note to retirees: Don’t count on your retiree health insurance from your company. Even if you have the agreement in writing, many retiree health insurance agreements include clauses giving the company the right to modify, suspend, revoke, terminate, or change the program at any time. And for many employers, that time has come.

General Motors plans to eliminate retiree healthcare coverage for approximately 100,000 white-collar retirees at the end of this year. Former factory workers, however, have union contracts that prevent the company from revoking coverage.

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Comment by Skip
2009-05-07 08:01:53

Don’t forget the benefit on the pension side as increased mortality reduces pension payouts.

Its a win-win.

 
Comment by Bob in Vegas
2009-05-07 08:29:33

Bankruptcy will allow GM to void its contracts and get rid of health care for those pesky blue-collar retirees…

 
Comment by packman
2009-05-07 09:24:53

“Bankruptcy will allow GM to void its contracts and get rid of health care for those pesky blue-collar retirees…”

When pigs fly. There are too many votes tied up in those blue collars to let that happen.

Why do you think the UAW is getting such a huge stake, when they’re the ones who have driven these companies into the ground? It’s down to the very simplest and oldest political principle - vote payback.

 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-07 09:39:45

Ah the hoary old “unions bad” argument.

Did the unions design and engineer the cars?

Did the unions decide on customer service?

Did the unions decide how to loan to the customers?

Did the unions make the deals with the dealerships?

Did the unions decide on the gas mileage of the cars?

Did you know it takes only 30 hours to build a modern car? (google it) If you paid the line worker $60hr in wages AND benefits, that’s only $1800 per car. Where’s the other +/-$20,000 DOLLARS going?

Yeah, it’s the unions. :roll:

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-05-07 10:01:52

ecofeco, you forget materials costs, costs of running the machinery, R&D, etc.

Plus, if you include pensions, l-t health care, etc, I highly doubt the wages + benefits add up to only $60/hr.

 
Comment by eastcoaster
2009-05-07 10:18:59

Okay, maybe we don’t say “unions are bad”, but I certainly think it’s time for everyone to be responsible for themselves in areas such as healthcare and retirement. Pensions + healthcare in retirement is costly. Especially with people living longer. As a 401k person, I am entirely screwed if I don’t pay attention to my portfolio and plan for the future. It makes me feel, sometimes, as though my value on this planet is sub-par to anyone who gets a guaranteed income in retirement and is that really the case? Did I contribute so much less to the world than a auto assembly line worker? Or a school teacher? Really?

 
Comment by Jon
2009-05-07 10:25:52

I think everybody should work for minimum wage, have no health insurance or retirement benefits. That is the only way America will be great again!

 
Comment by Skip
2009-05-07 10:50:43

You realize that if when GM removes retiree medical, the retirees over 65 are then covered by Medicare right?

 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-07 11:11:33

drumminj, you are correct that I did not include materials. I was unable to find that information. But I was addressing only the cost of union assembly line labor, not the total cost.

The $60 per hour does include health and pension though it only represents an average.

The cost of R&D, subcontractors,suppliers, management, sales and profit are not without consideration, but to blame union labor as the sole cause of the automakers problem is disingenuous at best, when the real problem lies in demand and product quality.

And solely in demand and product quality.

Anyway, good point drumminj. Thanks for bringing that up.

 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-07 11:27:41

eastcoaster, I agree as well and most people I know think the same way. But not everyone has those opportunities or money to do so, even people who want to and would if they could.

There is a long history behind pensions. They were once only for the upper class. They were instituted for J6P when it was realized that it was cheaper to give them pensions than have them rely on government services in their old age. It was also a way to make extremely unattractive (and that’s putting it nicely) work, attractive and retain people who would otherwise seek better conditions, thus creating too much churn in the labor market and leaving needed, but unhealthy and dangerous, manufacturing with ever rising labor cost and missed delivery schedules. Yes, worse than we’ve ever seen.

401Ks have turned out not to be very good, have they? No matter how well you manage your portfolio, you can still be blindsided and many smart folks I know were. Many people also don’t have the time to manage their portfolios. They really don’t. Life isn’t so neat orderly as we would like, is it? Then there are the people who can’t afford a 410K. What should they do? Kindly die at retirement age?

Yes, pensions and healthcare ARE costly. But that’s due to inflation. Wait, that’s wrong, it’s due entirely to GREED by health insurers. You want to blame someone, there’s your boys. It’s health insurers that have raised the cost of health care and this impacts directly on pensions.

So eastcoaster, you can do all the right things and try to be a stand-up person, (and J6P tries as well), but the world often has other plans.. and they aren’t nice ones.

 
Comment by whyoung
2009-05-07 11:42:57

The retiree benefits the GM white collar people are losing are the prescriptions, dental, optical and other things that Medicare does NOT cover.

I know because my dad worked for GM, and we went through a VERY stressful end of 2008 trying to figure out how to get my mother proper coverage for those things.

Seeing your 88 year old mother in tears because she doesn’t know if she’s going to be able to get the medicines she needs at an affordable cost is NOT fun.

 
Comment by packman
2009-05-07 12:20:10

Did you know it takes only 30 hours to build a modern car?

It takes 30 hours to assemble a car. It takes way, way more to build the components - most of which are done by union labor.

Being that your base premise is way off - maybe try again.

 
Comment by jeff saturday
2009-05-07 13:16:07

Job Bank.

 
Comment by X-GSfixer
2009-05-07 14:24:10

“…..demand and product quality….”

Which gets back to costs.

I would love to buy a new Dodge Challenger, but I don’t love it enough to pay a 10 grand premium over a Mustang GT. Nevermind the fact that there is a very good chance that there won’t be parts to fix it in five years.

(One of the stories making the airwaves today is the pi$$ing contest between Delphi and GM……..seems that Delphi doesn’t want to ship GM parts anymore, so AC-Delco parts are going to be centrally rationed, and the rebuild pool is going to be expanded, even for WARRANTY PARTS……..ahhhh, those unintended consequences……)

And, I don’t love the Mustang GT enough to pay $30K bucks for it. Not when you can buy a 4-5 year old Corvette for less than that.

All of the car manufacturers were operating under a “mini-bubble”, selling overpriced cars using cheap financing, to people that really couldn’t afford them.

Everybody in the aerospace workforce has been doing “give-backs” for the past 25 years. It sucked, and still does, but the US aerospace industry is still globally competative. (unless you prefer having your airliner inspected by unmonitored Central American, Korean and Chinese repair shops)

The UAW, on the other hand, fought all this stuff to the bitter end.

Like many on this blog who refuse to pay a bubble-inflated price for a house to fund someone else’s retirement, I’m not paying an inflated price for a new car, just to fund benefits and retirement for UAW people that have a LOT BETTER benefits than I do.

With my “rotation policy”, I used to buy a new car every four years, or thereabouts. That policy ended in 2002.

 
Comment by LehighValleyGuy
2009-05-07 14:26:33

“Where’s the other +/-$20,000 DOLLARS going?”

They’re going to CEO bonuses and to the bureaucracy.

Large corporations are about 10% productive work, 90% bureaucracy and internal politics.

 
Comment by flint 'burbs
2009-05-07 15:07:29

Second tier suppliers furnish the OEM parts - no unionized workers THERE! At Will jobbers! Their parts arrive Just-in-Time, so the rail, truckers, cargo ships take their cut. The old line workers (UAW) earned $20+/hour, so that $60 includes the benefit package, which most do not use (mental & legal services, tuition assistance for the worker only). Newbies make less and get reduced benefits, if they haven’t been laid off, already!
GM is not shaving the low level salary employees (bosses) to match the attrition that those Buyouts caused. They are hungry for the cheaper contracted kids to work dumber and harder, for less overall. No way they could afford to buy what they build, anymore, unless they live in the family compound/commune, like their parent’s house?

 
Comment by hd74man
2009-05-07 15:07:39

RE: I would love to buy a new Dodge Challenger, but I don’t love it enough to pay a 10 grand premium over a Mustang GT. Nevermind the fact that there is a very good chance that there won’t be parts to fix it in five years.

Gulfie

Spot on to all your observations.

Small block 8’s paired RWD were always synomous with the best of Detroit’s historical offerings. The inability of the Big3 to evolve this motor design to contemporary demand is pathetic

Why the hell they went almost exclusively to traverse mounted 6’s with FWD linked to dogcrap auto trans in shit like Caravan’s, K-cars, W-bodies, et. el. is beyond me.

The muscle cars were always the way the Big 3 brought in younger purchasers who in days past, tended to stayed loyal to the company which they grew up with.

Ford stayed true with it’s Mustang, but GM & Chrysler went uptown with their high priced Vettes and Viper, and lost the younger crowd to the Jap throwaways.

Seen the new Camaro? It’s like a 3/4 version, with a $40k+ tag for the V8.

Too late the messenger.

All, very, very sad.

 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-07 16:51:53

Incorrect packman. That 30 hours includes more than assembly.

Again, I’m not addressing any other costs other the company line workers. The argument was, and continues to be, that the company union is the cause of the Big 3’s problems when plainly, that is a LIE.

 
Comment by packman
2009-05-07 19:04:44

Oh I’m quite sure that the unions weren’t the cause of the Big 3’s problems - but they certainly were a cause. Very similar to how Alan Greenspan wasn’t the cause of the housing bubble, but most definitely was a cause.

FWIW - even union workers themselves find union labor too expensive. How’s that for irony?

Being that you apparently are a union member, or perhaps have some other vested interest - I’ll say this - I have no problem with union members - who in general I think are really good people. What I have a problem with is the concept itself, and also the how its apparent intent is bastardized. Much like many government policies - it’s viewed as having good intentions in many peoples’ eyes, but in reality has a very bad core, usually created and forwarded by those with an agenda that don’t match the publicly-presented good intentions.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by mikey
2009-05-07 06:06:35

“I see dead people…and over-priced RE junk”

:)

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2009-05-07 06:07:55

That’s entirely too long Muir. You could at least lose all the spacing. And the g@d damn is uncalled for this early in the morning as well.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2009-05-07 07:57:13

Ben-
I understand that you moderate this forum. I get that.

Sometimes when my posts don’t appear immediately, I wonder if it’s a delay in the technology or if it’s one that’s been screened by the moderator.

I’d be grateful if you would speak to your thought process on what content is moderated out.

Most of us want to be good citizens.

Thanks.

Comment by drumminj
2009-05-07 09:02:24

Agreed. Some guidelines would be good so we can know if we likely ended up in the penalty bin (moderated), or if maybe there’s a problem with the server and we should try posting again.

 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 08:31:59

And the g@d damn is uncalled for this early in the morning as well.

Yeah! Blasphemy is for AFTER lunch! Like fancy cocktails with little umbrellas in them!

*makes note to self to only blaspheme after lunch, henceforth *

Comment by polly
2009-05-07 09:39:19

Can we have a lilac exception for blasphemy? Like if you are surrounded with lilacs the blasphemy gets discounted to just being a little rude to the Almighty?

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 10:10:42

Tus ideas siempre son maravilloso, polly!
(Your ideas are always marvellous, polly!)

I absolutely concur. A lilac buffer would surely filter out the wicked blasphemized particles.
It’s so obvious, once you say it. :)

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 10:24:54

But let’s run some tests and establish some outcomes so we can write up some good lilac/blasphemy guidelines.

I imagine, and this is of course just a preliminary draft hypothesis (but I do have quite a talent for cussing, so this is an informed expert hypothesis.)
Anyway, I imagine that your newfangled double-bloom lilac varieties might produce a 25′ or so blasphemy buffer, so you couldn’t get tooooo excited with the naughty shouts, although it’d still be better than, say, arbor vitae or honeysuckle at filtering out blasphemy.

But then think of what a giant cluster of old heirloom lilacs, laden down with fragrant clusters, swaying in the warm spring wind, would produce! A 75′ to 100′ buffer easy!
Man! You could walk to the middle and totally get out of hand just a cussin’ away! In Sanskrit! Even before lunch! Then, when you was all wore out with wickedness, you could have a nap, a glorious nap, in a fragrant nest of lilacs…

Man. It’s like Heaven, thinking of it.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Muir
2009-05-07 11:04:22

“That’s entirely too long Muir. You could at least lose all the spacing. And the g@d damn is uncalled for this early in the morning as well.”

Oooops.
That was part of the script for “The in-laws.”

Pater Falk
Alan Arken

(sorry I did not reply earlier, I thought it was d*amn funny, oh, well)

Comment by X-GSfixer
2009-05-07 12:28:44

Is Rat-Ba$tard okay? :)

Seems that with all this tide drifting out, those guys are becoming as visible as those with no swimtrunks…

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 17:15:33

“That’s entirely too long Muir.’

I did happen to notice that bit, and I giggled lightly and considered a pert response, maybe involving sea turtles. (Hahahaah!)
But I thought it might fall under the ‘no blasphemy this early’ rule that Ben has now imposed, and I just couldn’t risk it.

:)

 
 
 
Comment by pressboardbox
2009-05-07 06:08:29

Buying SKF today could be the opportunity of a lifetime. Surreality cannot last much longer. I have never seen so much hype as there has been with these stupid stress tests. And if I hear one more smiling twit on TV say “green shoots”…

Comment by packman
2009-05-07 06:20:52

Not wise to bet against the house IMO.

That being said - the house screwed up royally and lost a bunch last year, so the house isn’t omniscient. They’re learning though, and are changing the rules every day.

Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-07 11:47:20

So it’s business as usual then? :lol:

 
 
Comment by packman
2009-05-07 06:21:57

omniscient omnipotent

 
Comment by arizonadude
2009-05-07 07:05:15

Check out FAZ too.

 
Comment by Muggy
2009-05-07 07:19:42

“Buying SKF today”

Dammit, I really wanna get in on this nonsense — I just have this feeling that the minute I try “investing” I’m'a get wiped out.

Comment by Muggy
2009-05-07 07:31:39

Screw it, what online brokerage should I use?

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-05-07 07:54:10

Hey, at least you wouldn’t be alone :) I’m sure there are a lot of people who have been hurt by the irrational buoyancy of the financial stocks.

Comment by Elanor
2009-05-07 09:40:46

Not to mention SRS. *ouch*

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Comment by Sleepr Cell
2009-05-07 07:44:53

“And if I hear one more smiling twit on TV say “green shoots”

LOL, yeah, it does rather make one want to shove a nice “green shoot” of bamboo up the twit’s neither regions.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2009-05-07 07:59:06

You can’t spell twitter without twit.

Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-07 09:45:09

Noticed that too, did ya?

I often wonder if anybody realizes this? I’m often amazed at what people will latch on to when it’s obvious that they are being insulted, charged for it and it’s being done in public.

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Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-05-07 12:21:22

I always replace the ‘i’ with an ‘a’ when talking about that stupid site.

 
Comment by Silvyerback1011
2009-05-07 14:55:27

I’ve read about it, including in Newsweek’s death knell editorial ( really pathetic, that ), but I have no idea what “twittering” actually entails, unless it’s little birds singing in a Disney classic. Can anyone fill me in without being too sarcastic about my lack of knowledge ? What the h-e-double hockey sticks goes on when one twitters ?

 
Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-05-07 16:18:59

It’s a website where you can type in tiny little updates (140 characters max, I believe) that can get sent to anybody who subscribes to your twitter feed. And you can get your tweets on cell phones, e-mails, rss feeds, etc. So any number of ways.

So, say you like Ryan Seacrest. You subscribe to his twitter feed on your cell phone and several times a day you get a text message from him saying things like “At spa getting back waxed” or “At hairstylist getting highlights put in” or “I can’t take this shell of a life anymore, goodbye world!”

And then you feel cool because you know that Ryan is getting his back waxed.

That’s it. That’s all. Nothing else to it.

 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-07 16:54:10

Go to the site or better yet, look it on Wikipedia.com.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 17:20:06

What the h-e-double hockey sticks goes on when one twitters ?

It’s when you rapid-fire little jabbers of text into the ether, to this-and-that-and-the-other source.
And you know what? I’ve never done it either, although many of the people I know have and do and I’ve observed the process. It’s supposed to keep you very connected and informed; although I think it’s just a good way to crash your car and waste your time.

See, I consider that when IIIII want to jabber inconsequentially, I’ll just do it outta my head with sound-waves.
(Or I’ll come on Ben’s Blog and do it that way. Hahahaah!)

 
 
 
 
Comment by Muir
2009-05-07 11:07:34

kudos! pressbox

 
 
Comment by 2banana
2009-05-07 06:22:31

SRS at 20, SKF at 40.

Who would have predicted it? The stress test said all banks are good. Dow and S&P up over 35% since lows. Party on!

Comment by Al
2009-05-07 06:35:48

It’ll be great to see everyone saying “no one could have seen this coming” in a month or three when the next big bank fails.

Comment by combotechie
2009-05-07 06:40:22

“no one could have seen this coming”

Anyone care to take a peek at the mortgage reset chart?

Comment by milkcrate
2009-05-07 06:48:27

Look like the inverse of a Camaro production graph? :)

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Comment by combotechie
2009-05-07 06:52:13

A picture that’s worth a thousand words.

 
Comment by X-GSfixer
2009-05-07 10:27:35

“…..Camaro production graph”.

Did you happen to see the web story about the “dealer markups” on the new Camaro?

-$5000 “adjusted market value”

-$999 for “Nitrogen for Life” in the tires.

Hint to the Housing Bloggers: Nitrogen servicing of tires and pressure cylinders is neccesary in aviation, especially in aircraft that fly at high altitude. (the reason dry nitrogen was invented to begin with). You can make the argument that it is neccesary in race car tires, due to it’s better stability.

Using nitrogen in your typical passenger car/truck is a TOTAL waste of money, and an even bigger ripoff than “paint protection coatings”. If you can’t live without nitrogen in your tires, go to any welding supply place, rent a cylinder, buy a cheap regulator, and have the cylinder filled with a lifetime supply for all your vehicles……the nitrogen itself is about $60 bucks.

 
Comment by milkcrate
2009-05-07 10:56:40

Have something of a soft spot for the Camaro because I worked in a GM factory one summer sanding Camaro and Firebird shells when they came out of hot prime oven.
Appreciate the tip on nitrogen ripoff.
Wife bought a set (4) of tires just yesterday. $1,200. Eeek. Run-flats.

 
Comment by whino
2009-05-07 11:26:19

“Wife bought a set (4) of tires just yesterday. $1,200. Eeek. Run-flats.”

I bought tires for my camaro in March and paid the same price for them as you. Not much deflation in the price those tires. :-(

 
Comment by DennisN
2009-05-07 11:53:24

Costco (and I believe Sam’s Club as well) put in dry nitrogen gratis when you buy tires there. And it’s a cheap place to get tires. Look for the green valve-stem caps they put on tires they have serviced.

 
Comment by X-GSfixer
2009-05-07 12:17:17

“….60 bucks”

To clarify……..a full cylinder (enough to fill all your tires for many years), less the cylinder rental and whatever regulator and hose you get, costs about 60 bucks.

The ones I use on the airplane last over two years……including servicing tires, blowdown cylinders and accumulators.

Also…..hd74man recommendation is a good one; if you can afford Mobil 1, use it, especially if you have to park the car/truck outside in below zero temps. Try to find someplace that sells in bulk.

 
 
Comment by KJ
2009-05-07 06:59:44

Is that chart still relevant? So many of those mortgages have been defaulted on already and/or bought by the govt I don’t think the charts are usefull anymore. IIRC the date range was 2006-2011, and a lot has happened since 2006.

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Comment by bink
2009-05-07 07:52:46

It’ll be great to see everyone saying “no one could have seen this coming” in a month or three when the next big bank fails.

Didn’t Obama state that none of the 19 banks would be allowed to fail.. no matter what?

Comment by packman
2009-05-07 08:07:33

Any conjecture of whether or not the banks will or will not fail is meaningless. Most of them HAVE failed. They failed months ago. They are zombies, controlled by the state. Same with GM and Chrysler.

We are in full-on “Weekend at Bernie’s” mode now.

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Comment by Muggy
2009-05-07 08:54:05

“We are in full-on “Weekend at Bernie’s” mode now.”

Lol

 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-07 11:51:29

Night of the Living Dead

“I wouldn’t go over there ma’am. They’re… they’re all messed up.”

 
 
 
 
Comment by Kim
2009-05-07 06:58:12

It could make for a good “buy the rumor, sell the news” trade.

I am taking a bath on my SRS holdings, but I am not giving them up.

Comment by MrBubble
2009-05-07 11:17:08

Kim –

I am still long my SRS, which was not wise. But did you see this story?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aES8UegfUvkU&refer=home

Also talked to a friend in CRE last week. Tons of layoffs and he says that there are just no more deals going on as everyone waits for prices to continue to decline.

MrBubble

 
 
Comment by Mr. Drysdale
2009-05-07 07:08:55

“The stress test said all banks are good.”

Retail is not so bad either. Must be all the unemployed people having more time to spend and more time to cut checks for their credit cards, car loans and home loans.

How can rational people think these UE numbers are a good sign? Just a little over a year ago, new claims creeping over 400,000 were a sign of THE END, now 601,000 is great news? WTF?

I guess we’ve become numb to the numbers . . . but I guarantee you that at least 601,000 people (and their families) don’t think this is great news.

Comment by measton
2009-05-07 07:30:48

I believe I heard the US census is going to hire 140,000 people. My guess is any dip may be related to this.

Comment by hd74man
2009-05-07 08:23:44

RE: My guess is any dip may be related to this.

Hiring always goes up with the onset of spring/summer.

Oldster’s have lawns that need mowing. (heaven forbid the grandchildren should do the work).

Seasonal eatery joints ramp up.

The sun sets later; gin drinking increases; the grasshoppers can fiddle now that the fuel oil tank doesn’t have to be filled every month.

Stock market’s up 29%. The Dem’s control everything.

So, it’s an Alfred E. Newman “What me worry” world!

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Comment by milkcrate
2009-05-07 10:06:35

Things the Census could measure but doesn’t:
1) Number of illegal “residents” in these United States.
2) The occurrence of fraud in the mortgage/ RE business.
3) The societal impact of consumerism and the “necessity” of two-income families.
But wait, this year, for the first time, it will widen its horizons. After 11 months of calculations, involving 653 public employees, 17 middle managers and 4 division chiefs, it publishes:

1) The volume of ink, measured in 55-gallon drums, used for purposes of tattooing. Corresponding data for depositories of said ink is arranged by age group, race, gender, ethnicity, household income, country of origin, and political party. Survey will forecast anticipated ink use for the next 50 years. Volume in accompanying PowerPoint presentation put on the Web converts to metric for international audience. Study also includes, indexed by city, tattooing employment levels and what it calls “anticipated industry salaries” and “consumer transaction costs.”
The data on ink color, which will require special analysis and may necessitate additional hires, will be delayed for five years. Also with that update: trends in tattoo images as well as body placement preferences.
U.S. Department of Labor does the same report.
The state Division of Weights and Measures registers a protest that it wasn’t adequately consulted. Health and Human Services asks to be put on the Census’ new list of stakeholders.

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Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-07 11:59:33

Earth shattering revelations! How did we ever live without this data?!

(thanks for the heads-up milkcrate)

 
Comment by packman
2009-05-07 12:27:30

Are you serious? Wow. Got a link perhaps to where that info is from? Thanks.

 
Comment by milkcrate
2009-05-07 13:05:21

Er, guys/gals:
I made that stuff up.
To illustrate (not very well, I spose) the extent of some of the meaningless work that agency does do.
I read many Census reports as a MSM member.
(ducks for cover.)

 
Comment by milkcrate
2009-05-07 13:07:23

Clarifying… MSM is no longer my trade.

 
Comment by X-GSfixer
2009-05-07 13:34:48

I’d love for someone to do some research on how many people are employed doing “make-work” research for the government.

Like the scientists working “general research” where they cannot illustrate any practical application for the research, other than “…..well, the human race has always strived for knowledge……”

(Great…….then why isn’t the government running People Magazine and “TMZ”???…)

Or the research that quantifies the obvious…….like the study that says girls get knocked up at the home at a higher rate when the parents are at work, vs. when mom and dad are at the house.

Or milkcrate’s tattoo study……….the reason it fooled people is that people believe that this is the kind of stupid crap that our government would actually spend money on.

 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-07 16:57:55

Shame on you milkcrate.

It was funny, but dang, a little more, er, qualification next time, alright? :wink:

 
Comment by milkcrate
2009-05-08 20:20:51

okie dokie

 
 
 
 
Comment by FB wants a do over
2009-05-07 09:16:08

SRS went from the high of 250 to 50 and then bounced. The low was approx 1/5th of its high. When it dropped from 100 to 35 I was thinking it might go as low as 20 - again 1/5th of its high. Sounded like a reasonable strategy so now I’m back in at $20. Fingers crossed that the Fed has run out of rabbits to pull from its hat - at least in the near term.

 
Comment by crazy frog
2009-05-07 09:18:42

Comment by 2banana
“SRS at 20, SKF at 40.
Who would have predicted it? …”

Well, Voz predicted it here on HBB a couple of weeks ago. Although he usually post very late in the evening, so if you don’t check the blog after 9-9:30pm Central time you probably missed it.

To make sure that I did not missed anything interesting from the previous day I usually check in the morning the bits and buckets for posts from Voz, FPSS, and get stucco/professor bear. I have been lurking at HBB for the last 4 years everyday, so I had to find a way to be more efficient, since I spend waaaaay too much time on the blog. :)

Comment by Sleepr Cell
2009-05-07 10:14:39

Yes, it does grow into something of an adiction doesn’t it ;-)

 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-05-07 06:23:07

May 7 (Bloomberg) — Federal regulators today unveil what Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said will be a “reassuring” picture of a U.S. banking system able to withstand whatever stresses the recession may inflict on it once a handful of institutions add to their capital base.

Federal Reserve stress tests on the 19 biggest lenders show Bank of America Corp., Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc. together require about $54 billion, said people familiar with the conclusions. At the same time, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of New York Mellon Corp. have enough capital to help prop up flows of credit to businesses and consumers grappling with the worst recession in five decades.

“There is very significant cushions in these institutions today, and all Americans should be confident that these institutions are going to be viable institutions going forward,” Geithner said yesterday in an interview with PBS television’s Charlie Rose program. “The results will be, on balance, reassuring.”

Bank stocks surged yesterday in anticipation that firms won’t need as much capital as once projected; the Standard & Poor’s 500 Financials Index rallied 8 percent. Officials favor filling the shortfall by converting preferred shares into common stock, enabling the Obama administration to keep aside most of the $110 billion left in the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

Comment by packman
2009-05-07 06:45:56

When I was a kid my brothers and sisters and our friends had a “club” where we made our own “houses” (swept-out clearings in the woods) and roads for our bikes, complete with furniture, a grocery store, a hardware store - basically a whole city. I had a grocery store where I’d get cereal boxes and such out of the trash and fill them with pine cones and that kind of thing. I also ran trash pickup, going around to everyone’s house once a week to collect. It was really a lot of fun.

Of course we needed money too, so that we could fairly buy and sell stuff, so one of us created bills by just writing $1, $5, etc. onto cut squares of notebook paper.

Interestingly - the banker who created this money never went broke.

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 08:34:03

Hahahah! What an awesome story. Thanks.

Comment by holytrainwreck
2009-05-07 13:27:25

Olygal grew beards errr lilacs and sold them for some squares of notebook paper :0)

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Comment by dude
2009-05-07 06:23:08

Square Footage 2,952
Year Built / Effective Year Built 1979 / 1979
Bedrooms / Bathrooms 5 / 3
APN 3005-006-010 LA county

Would anyone care to give an opinion on what this house is worth? I can only find record of about 300K debt.

It has a 40X80 steel shop. 3 car garage attached, 3 car additional together with 400sqft. MIL apartment. Pool is 20X40, 9.5 ft. deep diving pool.

I’m guessing 450K.

Comment by arizonadude
2009-05-07 07:07:22

Maybe look at some active listings in the area and try zillow for a rough estimate.

Comment by Jim A.
2009-05-07 07:20:04

Hard to find comparables for something with a big shop like that.

Comment by dude
2009-05-07 07:31:20

Yes, that is where I need some guidance from more experienced folks.

Oh, and AZdude, don’t get me wrong I’d love to pay zestimate pricing on this. I’d do the deal tommorow. It’s one of those instances where zestimate really is just too low.

BTW, they are asking $699K!:roll:

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Comment by Jim A.
2009-05-07 07:59:45

Something like that is a chance to play hardball with the seller if you don’t really NEED a big shop. Try finding out what one of those nearly instant instant giant steel sheds-on-a-slab costs. That gives you an idea what unfinished square footage can cost out as.

 
Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2009-05-07 12:23:49

I dream of something like that. Inground pool, huge garage, reasonable house. A friend has a 30×50 steel building (said if he were to do it again he’d go stick built but I still dig it). Said the concrete slab was a huge cost. You can get quotes online for the building part, they weren’t that expensive when you compare to what people are asking for dumpy townhouses in my area.

 
Comment by Jim A.
2009-05-07 12:46:49

And heating/cooling those things can be expensive enough that they’re essentially occupiable only part of the year. OTOH unheated/unAC’ed space is sometimes treated preferentially treated for tax assesments. But my point is that you should indicate an unwillingness to pay more than it would cost to throw up one of those prefabs. Even if zoning would make new construction of that kind impossible. Don’t let the seller know how much you want it.

 
Comment by X-GSfixer
2009-05-07 13:52:40

A few years ago (back when the contractors had more work than time), one of my buddies put up a stick-built, detached, 30×30 or thereabouts oversized (w/heat and central air, but no water service) garage/gearhead man-cave. Don’t know what he paid, but I know one quote he got was for 50 grand.

I wonder what kind of bids he would get now?

 
 
 
Comment by dude
2009-05-07 07:28:29

Zillow is less than useless. It essentially take median $/sqft. for the zip and does the multiplication. It does not account well for differences in lot size, outbuildings, etc. That is especially true in a zipcode where 95% of houses are on postage stamp lots with this one on 2.5 acres.

Comment by DinOR
2009-05-07 08:08:40

O.K, we get it already. Zillow is -useless-. Thanks.

Guys, I… just… I don’t know. Everyone ( myself included ) whines about the REIC Cartel but the minute -any- alternative is offered, there’s nothing but complaints. Not an expert but I ‘do’ believe if you feel the price is inaccurate there’s a mechanism already in place to provide feedback.

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Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2009-05-07 06:30:39

Who in America is going to settle for just a simple roof over their familie’s head? ;-) Even comes with Duracell batteries & box of See’s candy!

Warren, he doesn’t know anything about the future.

“This innovative ‘green’ home, featuring solar panels and numerous other energy-saving products, is truly a home of the future,” Buffett wrote his shareholders. “Estimated costs for electricity and heating total only about $1 per day when the home is sited in an area like Omaha.”

Maryville, Tenn.-based Clayton Homes, acquired by Berkshire-Hathaway in a $1.7 billion buyout in 2003, delivered 27,499 mobile or manufactured homes last year, a third of the industry total. Kevin Clayton thinks the “i-house” very quickly could represent more than 10 percent of its business.

A 1,000-square-foot prototype unveiled at a Clayton show in Knoxville a few months ago was priced at around $140,000. It came furnished, with a master bedroom, full bath, open kitchen and living room with Ikea cabinetry, two ground-level deck areas and a separate “flex room” with a second full bath and a second-story deck covered by a sail-like canopy.

Clayton ‘i-house’ is giant leap from trailer park:

By DUNCAN MANSFIELD, Associated Press Writer Duncan Mansfield, Associated Press Writer – Wed May 6

Comment by milkcrate
2009-05-07 06:51:54

That sail-like canopy should work real well in a tornado.
“Honey, where’s the house?”
“Over yonder, on top of them cars.”

Comment by Muddyfoot
2009-05-07 07:42:09

I’m as happy as a tornado in a trailer park!

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2009-05-07 07:50:12

Maybe they need to spend another $100K on a silo type bunker.

The house quickly descends 10 feet underground and a concrete slab seals the top of the bunker. What toranayDohhhh?

 
 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-07 12:07:04

I’ve seen this house on the Interent. It’s small with a serious lack of storage. Cute. Quite modern. Highly efficient. But small.

And as far as I’m concerned, it’s overpriced for the sq footage.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-05-07 06:44:56

“THIS afternoon, Treasury, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Reserve will announce the results of an unprecedented review of the capital position of the nation’s largest banks. This will be an important step forward in President Obama’s program to help repair the financial system, restore the flow of credit and put our nation on the path to economic recovery.” ~Treas/Sec’y Timothy Geithner.

Notice the “restore flow of credit” line. Washington wants citizens and businesses to get back into their borrowing habits. This is a mistake. The deadwood needs to be cleared out of the economy through bankruptcies, defaults, and the other classic methods of cleansing a sick economy. Debt needs to be reduced, savings increased, and satisfactions postponed until faith in the dollar and markets is restored. It takes time. Jumping back on the borrow/spend bandwagon will only postpone the reckoning.

Comment by Lisa
2009-05-07 08:51:15

“Notice the “restore flow of credit” line. Washington wants citizens and businesses to get back into their borrowing habits. This is a mistake.”

Washington may want this, but I’m not sure it will happen. Think of all the FB’s who bought during the bubble. They’re under water and tapped out. And plenty of other people will be afraid to leverage themselves given what’s happened, or won’t have the savings/credit score necessary to get approved for leverage.

Washington can’t do a repeat on 2001, when the debt flood gates were opened and folks spent like crazy. There’s just less credit available in the system….shadow banking is gone…and there’s not much DC can do about that.

Comment by Pondering the Mess
2009-05-07 10:20:36

Sure they can - printing presses firing up and away we go!

 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-07 12:10:01

This is correct Lisa. They scrapped the boom of the barrel with NINJA loans.

Now they’ve laid off those very same people.

Game over.

Comment by warlock
2009-05-07 12:30:17

They can generate as much credit as they like, as long as they’re allowed to continue securitizing loans, assuming that they can find borrowers and purchasers of the MBS.

Since they sold approximately $1 trillion of the things last year, I guess they can still find purchasers.

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Comment by REhobbyist
2009-05-07 06:48:21

I’m weirded out. Ben Bernanke is on the TV talking to me. Has this ever happened before? It feels 1984ish. On the other hand, his speech is technical rather than reassuring. Maybe the administration told him that he has to talk directly to the people to reassure him, but he doesn’t know how!

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 07:33:16

Do you think he intended to trigger a market crash?

Comment by pressboardbox
2009-05-07 07:47:56

No, The PPT can prevent a crash. That is the beauty of the whole scam. A high fake stock market is now the economy (at least the only part that our leaders can point to and be proud of).

 
Comment by whino
2009-05-07 08:49:49

There seems to be high volume in the markets today but I’m just a spectator. Can someone with knowledge verify this for me?

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 06:50:23

I am thinking maybe a $6 billion loss, plus the need for another $11.6 billion to stay afloat, is not all that bad, compared to the $65 billion in fresh blood capital the bankpires need to stay alive.

Wall Street Journal

* MAY 7, 2009, 9:34 A.M. ET

GM Posts $6 Billion Loss, Burns Through $10.2 Billion

General Motors Corp.’s loss expanded to nearly $6 billion in the first quarter as the global sales slump deepened and fears mounted that company is headed for bankruptcy court.

The auto maker burned through $10.2 billion in the quarter as revenue plunged 47%, the latest sign GM is running out of options as it races to meet a June 1 restructuring deadline set by the White House. The company is surviving on $15.4 billion in federal loans and has said it needs another $11.6 billion to stay afloat.

“The concern about bankruptcy is having an impact on our sales,” Chief Financial Officer Ray Young told reporters. He noted that a U.S. government guarantee of GM and Chrysler LLC warranties wasn’t announced by the Obama administration until March 30. As a result, consumers for most of the quarter were unsure about warranty protection. Chrysler last week filed for protection from creditors under the bankruptcy code.

Comment by DinOR
2009-05-07 06:57:26

“bankpires” I love it!

Comment by arizonadude
2009-05-07 07:10:54

Why don’t they lower their prices on cars?How are they losing this much money?

Drop the prices and get rid of the inventory.Sure, it would be better than having cars pile up on lots and factories stall.

People do not have the money they had from home equity.They have to work for their money now.Makes a big difference.

Comment by jeff saturday
2009-05-07 07:32:11

“Why don’t they lower their prices on cars?How are they losing this much money?”

For GM, the health care tab is projected to total $46.7 billion
over the lives of about 350,000 retirees and spouses. At Chrysler, it’s $10.9 billion for around 82,000 retirees

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Comment by AZ Retired
2009-05-07 08:34:58

“over the lives of about 350K retirees and spouses.”
Jeff, Wouldn’t they only need coverage from retirement through Medicare eligibility?

 
Comment by DennisN
2009-05-07 09:29:23

That’s not how old-fasioned health care worked. My dad retired from AT&T in 1978 back when it was a unitary company. He got a gold-plated fee-for-services healthcare plan that covered him until he died at age 83.

 
Comment by polly
2009-05-07 09:29:38

Retiree health becomes the “medigap” insurance for people who age into medicare. At least, that is the way it works for my parents. Medicare is the primary. The HP (who purchased Compaq who purchased DEC) retiree program is the secondary. My dad also gets some care through the VA, but not that is very minor.

 
Comment by jeff saturday
2009-05-07 13:13:57

OK Job Bank

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2009-05-07 07:49:52

Why don’t they lower their prices on cars?

Indeed. The deals on cars (not trucks) are no better than when times were “good”.

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Comment by scdave
2009-05-07 10:00:57

Why don’t they lower their prices on cars?

Yep…I am in the market for two new cars but they will not negotiate very much on the price…

 
 
Comment by Skip
2009-05-07 07:56:22

In 2005 GM was offering 0%/rebates/employee pricing during the boom years of home equity extraction.

GM may have benefited some from home equity extraction(probably only in the sand states), but they were not a healthy company back then. The current slow down in sales is just exacerbating the issues they have had for many years now.

On the other hand, auto sales are down 40% and eventually, they will have to come back. Cars are just not made well enough to last 150k miles and repair costs are expensive. Eventually, cars will have to be replaced with new ones (or else we will turn into Cuba!).

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Comment by Jim A.
2009-05-07 08:01:46

Yes, but most people could hold on to their cars a year or two longer than they did during the HELOC orgy. Add to this the reduced need for new contractor trucks and sales could be down for years.

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-05-07 08:13:27

Skip,

My sentiments exactly. Besides, dumping product ( as you note w/ 0% financing yada yada ) is what crushed the re-sale market and planted their recent buyers so up-side-down there was no WAY they’d be able to trade in/up etc.

Of late, I’m spending more time tracking autos than dog goned houses. ( At least there’s some action there? )

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2009-05-07 08:19:57

Skip:

Do you really have to drive that many miles anymore?

Are people really going to do a 100 mile round trip to a job everyday… Or will they move closer and spend a little more on rent?

I miss the old days when people like me used to drive cross country just to see America….

I big reason i stay in NYC is my GF is a city girl and never drove in her life, so moving to a smaller place would be a major lifestyle change and what we save in rent etc would be eaten up with a second car and high insurance for a new driver……

But she in not so opposed to it as before this mess hit

———————————————————
Cars are just not made well enough to last 150k miles

 
Comment by hd74man
2009-05-07 08:29:30

RE: Cars are just not made well enough to last 150k miles and repair costs are expensive.

1998 Pontiac Grand Prix GTP-192,000 miles
1988 Ford Mustang GT-172,000 miles

Mobil 1 Oil & regular maintenance.

Still humpin’…

 
Comment by Skip
2009-05-07 09:02:49

aNYCdj I don’t think its necessarily the long commute that eats up all the miles, but the jumping in your car 3 or 4 times a day to drive everywhere else.

hd74man I will trade you for my ‘86 Pontiac Fiero that exploded its engine with 20k miles on it and my ‘91 Ford Cougar that blew the engine, transmission, and air conditioner -the final straw was when the ignition on my steering column caught on fire one morning as I started the car.

 
Comment by fisher
2009-05-07 09:19:55

1991 toyota tercel, 205,000 miles. oil, gas, tires. my first and only new vehicle. still gets 40+mpg

 
Comment by In Colorado
2009-05-07 09:20:28

Plus without funny money from HELOCS those future purchases will be much more modest, as in entry level Korean cars and the soon to arrive deluge of even cheaper Chineses cars.

 
Comment by Steve W
2009-05-07 09:49:34

That is part of the problem, the quality of the cars coming off the line is much improved and you can easily get 100-150K off most models without much worry.

So if you do the oil changes, you’re prudent and fiscally responsible, you’ve got a car for a nice long time. Good for you, not so good for the auto industry. They had a few stories in the MSM a few weeks ago how the average age of the car on the road has been steadily climbing.

 
Comment by awaiting wipeout
2009-05-07 10:02:12

Swedish tank with 300K miles, here. Waiting for new technologies, otherwise why bother. Oil changes every 3K and lots of highway miles. Cars are such a waste of money.

hd74man-
Nice to read that post about your American cars holding up so well. We own a Vette. (not a chick car-his)

 
Comment by Northeastener
2009-05-07 11:33:59

That is part of the problem, the quality of the cars coming off the line is much improved and you can easily get 100-150K off most models without much worry.

Don’t mention this to the powers that be… they will force us to buy new cars every three or four years through legislation, similar to what Japan implemented… Known as “shaken” in Japanese. This bi-yearly inspection and component replacement regime also includes mandatory liability insurance, weight tax, vehicle tax and can cost upwards of $1,500 US. New vehicles depreciate at a considerably faster rate than in other countries, and beyond a certain mileage (50,000 miles/85,000 km) it becomes economically prohibitive to renew the “shaken,” as the resale values approach residual.

 
Comment by hd74man
2009-05-07 11:43:15

RE: We own a Vette…

The C5 & C6 Chevrolet Corvette exemplify what GM could be. No matter what car rag you read, the new
Corvette’s compete mightily with exotic foreign jobs costing 4X as much. In my eyes a newer model 6sp ‘Vette is King of the Highway.

I have purchased Fords, a GM, and a couple of US produced VW GTi’s in my lifetime.

I always did my research and bought the right size motor hooked up with the appropriate transmission.

As a curmudgeonly cynic I have virtually no complaints.

All vehicles served me well. However, I will add I’m an anal type when it comes to maintenance.

The state of the Big 3 distresses me greatly.

 
Comment by The_Overdog
2009-05-07 11:55:45

RE: Cars are just not made well enough to last 150k miles and repair costs are expensive.

————————-
Agree with repair costs are expensive part, but disagree with the ‘cars are not made well enough part’. Any decent car today will last 150k, no problemo. That includes GMs and Ford, as well as Hyundai, Toyota, Honda, and Nissan.

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-05-07 16:19:37

Mazda pickup 4 cyl. 1972, with over 100,000 miles. Bought it used in 1977, added another 150,000 miles.

1980 Pontiac Sunbird, bought new. 250,000 miles. Body frame was damaged in 1992. Donated car to charity.

1982 Oldsmobile Custom Cruiser Station Wagon. Bought used. Original owner had put over 250,000 miles on original engine. Took great care of this car. When I bought it form the original owner he had put in a second engine. I bought the car in 2003 and now has over 150,000 miles on the second engine. Love this car. Unfortunately parts are almost impossible to find now. Certain things I’ve had repaired because of age, wear and tear.

 
 
Comment by Observer
2009-05-07 09:21:03

“Why don’t they lower their prices on cars?”

Come on now, you know the reason why. Just like stubborn home sellers, “they don’t want to give them away.”

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Comment by hd74man
2009-05-07 15:19:59

RE: hd74man I will trade you for my ‘86 Pontiac Fiero that exploded its engine with 20k miles on it and my ‘91 Ford Cougar that blew the engine, transmission, and air conditioner -the final straw was when the ignition on my steering column caught on fire one morning as I started the car.

Sorry Skip…

But buyin’ Detroit iron has always been kinda like a game of Russian Roulette.

Spin wrong and it’s light’s out for you.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 17:29:52

-the final straw was when the ignition on my steering column caught on fire one morning as I started the car.

How did you put it out? I didn’t heed your discussion of brand names, because I cannot recall brand names; it’s a mental hiccup thingie. But I recall when the jeep lit on fire long ago on a camping trip, so I’m curious about your response.

 
Comment by bluprint
2009-05-08 07:54:43

Back in the day, I used to deliver pizza at night and had a spotlight. The light had a short in it and one night I guess it went out and I just set it facedown (light facing into the bench seat).

The next day I went to class and when I got out of class and got back to my truck, the inside of the truck was filled with a yellow, noxious looking smoke. Evidently the short had resolved itself while I was in class and I had, the night before, made the mistake of leaving the light plugged in and turned on.

I just closed the door and started walking to some nearby apartments (took me, maybe 20 mins). Knocked on the door of some girls I knew there and asked if they could take me to the grocery store.

So I bought like 6 gallons of water, and they drove me back to my truck where I poored the water on the seat to put out the smoldering.

Pretty much the entire cushion had been turned to char. I drove home trying to see over the steering wheel.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by llcarlos
2009-05-07 06:50:44

Another milestone today, Bernanke is on TV and the market is up.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 07:07:01

Not so fast — at this point, it is looking more like one of those moon shots that winds up in the Atlantic Ocean before breaking out of the Earth’s gravitational field.

 
 
Comment by packman
2009-05-07 06:52:17

Here’s an article from this morning’s WaPo discussing how Bernanke was a strong advocate for the 2001-2004 rate cuts that led to the bubble.

I’m telling you folks - Bernanke’s on the way out. I see it happening.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 07:18:06

Obama’s team includes several highly-qualified individuals waiting in the wings in case a top post at the Fed opens up.

Comment by packman
2009-05-07 08:09:49

Yep.

(Though “qualified” has to be qualified) :)

 
Comment by lainvestorgirl
2009-05-07 08:31:32

Was that meant to be a joke?

 
Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-05-07 12:40:06

You mean Volkler?

 
 
 
Comment by WT Economist
2009-05-07 06:53:23

We get the FT and the WSJ.

This morning the FT said Citigroup needs $50 billion.

The WSJ said Citigroup needs $5 billion.

And I’ve seen other statements that were all over the map for all the banks.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 06:58:38

Sounds like someone misplaced a decimal point. But what’s a $45 bn difference in Megabank, Inc’s world, where over the course of seven month’s time, $700 bn+ in TARP money proves insufficient to plug a black hole?

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2009-05-07 07:01:28

Either way you slice that lie, there just isn’t enough cash to go around.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 06:56:43

Aren’t condos technically residential real estate? Perhaps they are classified differently when they are built strictly for flippers and speculators to trade them, rather than for human occupancy.

Wall Street Journal

* REAL ESTATE
* MAY 7, 2009

Swig Takes Hit as Condo Market Unravels

By NICK TIMIRAOS

Kent Swig, the scion of one of San Francisco’s most prominent real-estate families, is no stranger to conflict.

Two years ago, he hired a marching band that drowned out the noise of a protest mounted by tenants he was trying to evict. Last fall, one of his partners allegedly hurled an ice bucket at Mr. Swig during an argument at a business meeting, an incident that led to the filing of assault charges.

But nothing likely could have prepared Mr. Swig for the wars on numerous fronts that he has faced as the Manhattan condominium market has unraveled. He has faced a range of financial problems on his four condo projects, including the 597-unit Sheffield57, one of the largest condo projects in the city.

Mr. Swig’s battles are a sample of what is happening nationwide in the condo-development sector as thousands of new units keep being delivered into a market in which demand has evaporated. In Manhattan alone, where vacant inventory stands at record levels, some 4,500 new condo units in 44 buildings are expected to come online this year, according to Reis Inc., a real-estate research firm.

Many condo projects throughout the country are going bust as developers default on construction loans. The losses are among the causes of the commercial real-estate woes that are dragging down banks and other lenders. Delinquencies on condo construction loans jumped to 32% in the first quarter, up from 25% in the previous quarter, while defaults on nonresidential construction loans rose to 8.9% in the first quarter, from 6.6% in the previous period, according to Foresight Analytics LLC.

Comment by intheknow
2009-05-07 07:41:30

1 condo = residential; multiple condos = commercial. Technically 5 or more units is considered commerical.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 09:07:22

This is a bogus dichotomy if ever there was one, as the same fundamentals affect 1 condo versus multiple condos. When residential real estate demand is in the toilet, so are condos, whether you are talking one or multiple.

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-05-07 12:42:54

You have to get a commercial loan to build/convert a large number of units because, in theory, you’re not going to live in all of them. It’s a business loan, not a residential mortgage. The people buying the condos get residential mortgages. They’re not saying that people foreclosing on the condos are causing commercial failures, they’re saying builders getting the entire development foreclosed on is driving commercial loan failures.

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Comment by Skip
2009-05-07 07:58:27

I believe 4+ units require a commercial loan to purchase.

Comment by DinOR
2009-05-07 08:19:27

“no stranger to conflict”

Well isn’t this just typical of the level of professionalism we’ve come to expect from REIC Cartel members? Drowning out protests of your tenants w/ a marching band and flying ice buckets.

And these “conflicts” with the people that are the most important to you.

 
Comment by milkcrate
2009-05-07 16:03:34

Fwiw, it is also the number where different anti-discrimination and lending financial disclosure rules apply.

 
 
 
Comment by Mikey(2)
2009-05-07 07:06:13

Well, I think I’m finally done with real estate. I’ve been looking, as it looks like the Phila area has started to give in prices, and yet every house that I begin expressing an interest in, some clown comes in and offers around 2% off of the asking price, over which, of course, the sellers are doing cartwheels. I finally told the agent that I just can’t do it anymore. Call me when no one is coming in to buy anymore; that’s when I’ll buy. It’s like I’m living in some sort of parallel universe to the rest of the public.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 07:30:18

I’m thinking the Fed’s reflation scheme may keep home prices out of reach, and rents relatively affordable, for years to come, as buyers’ incomes coupled with tightened lending standards are not up to reaching for still-overpriced used homes.

Comment by Pondering the Mess
2009-05-07 10:25:49

Exactly.

That is the goal and will be wonderful: flippers will be hosed, people who bought during the Bubble will be hosed, and prudent people who just want an affordable house will be housed. Combine this across-the-board lack of opportunities with a long-term crunch in the job market and you have lots of poor folks with no future. That’s always good when it is time for Big Solutions from the people in charge.

 
 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2009-05-07 07:37:09

“Buy now or be priced out forever!”

Actually, volume has definitely picked up in this area, but prices are still flat to declining. And that’s after a pretty significant price decline over the last year or so.

Recalling the baseball analogy that’s been used on this blog so often in the past, I’d say it’s time to stand up for the seventh-inning stretch. In this area at least.

“Take me out to the ballll game…”

Comment by AdamCO
2009-05-07 10:58:40

IMO, we’re maybe in the second inning. Frankly, nothing has happened yet. Business as usual for most people most everywhere. There has been -zero- change in expectations re: real estate or any notable decline in people’s sense of entitlement.

 
 
Comment by phillygal
2009-05-07 08:01:30

I had a revelation yesterday when I was searching Craigslist for a rental.

Currently living in a blue collar neighborhood, rent is reasonable, but I need a bigger space. Anything that comes available around here doesn’t last too long on rental market, the LLs are career property managers, they know the rents that the market will bear.

So I extended my search to Chester Heights, Glen Mills, Chadds Ford. Dozens of rentals on Craigslist, all asking ridiculous rents.
You know this area: those communities were never known as renters’ havens. These are accidental landlords hawking their empty units, some of them SFHs, not the slightest bit cognizant of what a reasonable monthly rate would be. These guys are waiting the market out. You can’t wait out a market that has more properties than buyers. (and that was just on CL, the MLS has oodles more rentals in those zips.)

Mikey2, I know you are frustrated with the length of time it is taking for prices to dive here. You are looking in a higher end market. The low end is starting to cave. With all this inventory waiting in the wings, you should be able to see some movement this coming fall and winter.

Either that are start using your personal network to find out about distressed, i.e., truly motivated sellers. I saw you post that you are an attorney, can you ask around to see if any estates need to be settled quickly? Or divorce, etc.

Comment by phillygal
2009-05-07 08:40:41

Either that are start

or

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 08:43:26

Either that are start using your personal network to find out about distressed, i.e., truly motivated sellers. I saw you post that you are an attorney, can you ask around to see if any estates need to be settled quickly? Or divorce, etc.

Good ideas, philly.

“Well, I think I’m finally done with real estate.”

Jeeze, Mikey2, that’s an awfully bold and dramatic statement there. Did you pound your fist on the desk when you wrote it? Look, it may take a bit more time to find the right real estate, but time is on YOUR side, no doubt of it. Patience is a virtue, man.
(It’s never been a virtue IIIII’ve displayed, but I’m the one giving advice here, so I can say it if I want.)

Mikey2– don’t get all frustrated and tetchy. Drink some beer and relax. Go smell lilacs. It’s Springtime!

Comment by DinOR
2009-05-07 09:09:07

Olygal,

I wish I could share your Springtime optimism but..? Now that the RE Bubble has morphed into The Blob, even living in that 4,000 s/f Vegas pool home ( priced at mere fraction of it’s peak “value” ) isn’t looking so ‘hot’ any more?

Your ‘neighbors’ have turned the backyard into a “pitbull farm” and the security guard has resigned out of fear for his life. ( He has since joined the gang that formerly threatened him )

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Comment by mikey
2009-05-07 09:29:17

(CNN) — Around 200 new species of frogs have been found in Madagascar, one of the world’s biodiversity hotspots.

Olygal, don’t you have to be SOMEWHERE ?

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 15:03:33

Olygal, don’t you have to be SOMEWHERE ?

Shoots, no. They’re all gonna fly on over for a slumber-party this weekend! Gonna show ‘em froggie hospitality Olympia-style.
:)

 
 
 
Comment by eastcoaster
2009-05-07 10:26:36

Funny, I feel like Mikey2 as well, only my perception is the upper end is caving, while the lower end stays stuck. And we all know which end I’m shopping in.

I’ve sort of given up as well. My realtor keeps pushing listings my way, but since my one and only offer in about 8 years was rejected recently, I’ve become more jaded than before and I keep ignoring what he’s sending. I suppose at some point something may spark my interest, but for now I’m stewing (and wishing a long, drawn out listing on the house I didn’t get).

 
 
Comment by run
2009-05-07 09:14:39

sounds fishy. they are trying to bring back good old days.

 
Comment by KJ
2009-05-07 10:53:39

I don’t know much about the Philly market. But what I have seen happen is people who have been waiting out the crash are just unrealistic about how far prices will fall. Price falls 10% from you wait for 20. Price falls 20, you wait for 30. Price falls 40 your wait for 50. Some clown will buy it for 48% off peak and you’ll sit there screaming about parallel universes. If this happens once, then yeah he’s a clown. If it happens 10 times, you have to start wondering if you’re the clown that’s refusing to accept reality.

I’ve seen this with hourly rates for developers. Not too long ago I could get sub-contract work for $60 an hour as there were lots of hungry code monkeys out there. But now at $60 an hour I won’t even get emails returned. The market has shifted and if I want someone that can do the work I need done, $75-80 is the bare minimum I can expect to pay.

Comment by eastcoaster
2009-05-07 11:29:49

Is it unrealistic to expect them to fall back to a 3 x income level? I, personally, am not awaiting some magic percentage drop. But I can tell you -10% doesn’t do squat in terms of affordability. This bubble was way bigger than 10%.

Comment by KJ
2009-05-07 11:39:37

I’ve often wondered where this magic 3X income comes from? I posed this question here a few days ago but it never went through….3X income, 120X rent, mortgage payments 30% of income, etc.

Who came up with these numbers? They seem to have taken a life of their own, especially at HBB. The 11th Commandment is Thou Shalt not Pay more than 3X income for a house. I’m not saying it’s wrong, just wondering why it’s 3X income and not 2 or 4 or 1. Seems like it is an arbitrary metric.

My bigger point was that it’s not really up to you to decide what the market price is. I would love to pay developers $50 an hour. Heck I’d love to pay them $10. But if the going rate is $75 or $85 or $100, I’ll pay what I have to pay to get workers, even if I think they’re “worth” only $50.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2009-05-07 11:59:20

‘I’ve often wondered where this magic 3X income comes from?..3X income, 120X rent, mortgage payments 30% of income, etc. Who came up with these numbers? They seem to have taken a life of their own, especially at HBB.’

These are historical averages, dating way back. You see, housing prices, rents and the relation to incomes have been fairly stable for centuries. So when these got out of whack, it should have set off alarm bells at every level.

And it is up to the buyer to decide what the price is. They are the market. If it’s too high, you buy less or none at all, which affects the supply, and prices adjust accordingly. Outside of financial manias, of course, which are rare and relatively brief.

A life of their own? I’ve been watching you go on about Bill Clinton, etc, for a few days. So tell me, are you a troll?

 
Comment by holytrainwreck
2009-05-07 13:57:46

Perhaps not, but there are partisan hacks everywhere who listen to Limbaugh/Savage/Rhodes/Malloy who need to have their thinking readjusted. They do not (yet) realize that it is the system that is rotten to the core.

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-05-07 14:13:40

While I agree with the 3X income being a “historical norm”, did they really have mortgages centuries ago? I’m honestly ignorant of this..I would imagine ‘yes’, but at the same point in time, that seems so….long ago :)

 
Comment by Silvyerback1011
2009-05-07 15:08:41

I know they had mortgages in colonial times, but they were mighty uncommon and sometimes were considered shameful.

 
Comment by exeter
2009-05-07 15:10:33

Post said trolls IP.

 
Comment by KJ
2009-05-07 17:38:01

I’m a troll because I mentioned Clinton? OK, sorry to share an opinion. I’ll leave those to the “Bu$hco Cheneyburton” comments which are thoughtful political discourse.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2009-05-07 17:47:24

I did say Clinton, etc. If you are just here to get people worked up about nothing you are a troll. Trolls don’t last long around here.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 18:08:00

Trolls don’t last long around here.

And that’s just too bad, because we have a sad scarcity of them lately.
Jeeze, I’m about ready to HIRE someone to log on and be a troll, just to delight everyone.

 
Comment by exeter
2009-05-07 18:50:23

Good riddance…….. troll.

 
Comment by packman
2009-05-07 19:05:47

Trolls don’t last long around here.

Yeah I notice that one in particular seems to be absent today.

 
Comment by calex
2009-05-08 03:00:09

Troll? I thought he just lived in a fantasy world. Do they teach critical thinking in school anymore?

 
 
 
Comment by LehighValleyGuy
2009-05-08 10:33:55

“…if I want someone that can do the work [software development?] I need done, $75-80 is the bare minimum I can expect to pay.”

I don’t get it. I thought there were billions of people in China and India willing to do this stuff for $3 a day. I thought company managements had all skilfully solved this problem using wage arbitrage.

 
 
 
Comment by Kurt
2009-05-07 07:07:36

So, why do I feel like this latest stock market rally is the ultimate “pump and dump” scheme?

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 07:26:39

Sell — every — rally!!!

 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-07 12:32:14

Uhm, cause it is?

:lol: I don’t really know, but I have the same feeling based on the PTB are still ignoring the fundamentals.

 
Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-05-07 12:47:50

I just dumped some shares this morning. Shares I’ve had since the 90’s sometime. Goodbye! Should have dumped them a year ago when they were going for 150% what I sold them for today. However, I sold them for 200% what they were going for two months ago.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 07:08:35

If it’s all good, how come the stock market rally quickly fizzled into a tail spin?

MarketWatch dot com
May 7 2009 10:07 A.M. ET

Street grades banks higher

Citi, B. of A. and Fifth Third are among morning’s big upward movers.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 07:15:41

Long-term investors would be well-advised to take the long view on the stock charts of
City, Bank of America and Fifth Third.

Given that these banks have all been granted too-big-to-fail status, right now looks like a marvelous buying opportunity for anyone who did not get wiped out by last year’s crash (especially for banks who received bailouts!).

Comment by packman
2009-05-07 08:12:38

You’re probably right. I may end missing out, but sorry I have principles that preclude me from buying and holding scum. It tends to stink up things.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 09:04:43

The all-data Fifth Third chart is kaput. But check out this one, which shows how Fifth Third fits the banking industry index chart like a glove. The volume spike at the right end of the range is also quite fascinating.

 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2009-05-07 08:15:59

Free cars for poor fuel road rage!

Hillary Chabot By Hillary Chabot
Thursday, May 7, 2009 - Updated 0m ago

Gov. Deval Patrick’s free wheels for welfare recipients program is revving up despite the stalled economy, as the keys to donated cars loaded with state-funded insurance, repairs and even AAA membership are handed out to get them to work.

But the program - fueled by a funding boost despite the state’s fiscal crash - allows those who end up back on welfare to keep the cars anyway.

“It’s mind-boggling. You’ve got people out there saying, ‘I just lost my job. Hey, can I get a free car, too?’ ” said House Minority Leader Brad Jones (R-North Reading).

The Patrick administration decided last month to funnel an additional $30,000 to the nearly $400,000 annual car ownership program.

The program, which is provided by the State Department of Transitional Assistance, gives out about 65 cars a year, said DTA Commissioner Julia Kehoe.

The state pays for the car’s insurance, inspection, excise tax, title, registration, repairs and a AAA membership for one year at a total cost of roughly $6,000 per car.

The program, which started in 2006, distributes cars donated by non-profit charities such as Good News Garage, a Lutheran charity, which also does the repair work on the car and bills the state.

Kehoe defended the program, saying the state breaks even by cutting welfare payments to the family - about $6,000 a year.

“If you look at the overall picture, this helps make sure people aren’t staying on cash assistance. It’s a relatively short payment for a long-term benefit,” Kehoe said.

But Kehoe admitted about 20 percent of those who received a car ended up back on welfare, and while they lose the insurance and other benefits, they don’t have to return the car.

Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-07 12:40:27

65 cars?

Hell, they’re getting a deal!

 
 
Comment by CJ
2009-05-07 08:38:29

Just wanted to say thank you to all of you HBBers. I found this site in (probably) 2005. My husband and I moved back to SoCal from the Chicago area in May 2004. We wanted to be near his aging parents. From the time my husband was first contacted about the job in January, until I was flown out in April to look for a house, median had increased 27% in Ventura County! Can you say “Bubble”?
We declined to buy and have been renting ever since.
We started looking again in November. Prices had declined enough that we could pay cash for a house that we would be happy with for a long, long time. Also, interest rates on our stash went through the floor. After looking at some incredible, destroyed foreclosures and some nice homes, we narrowed down our search. In January, we made a really lowball offer on a short sale. It was the neighborhood we wanted, the floorplan we wanted, and all of the expensive items had been upgraded (but not stupidly- no granite or stainless). Our all-cash offer was almost 25% less than a recent foreclosure of the same model that was in horrible condition.
We heard from the listing agent occasionally- “The bank really likes your offer, these things just take time.” We gave it up for a lost cause. Then, in April, 3 months after we made the offer, the bank countered it. When we said that was our last, best offer, we thought it was over. But they accepted the offer. Yesterday was our inspection and the house is in amazingly great shape. It was built in the 70’s and needs cosmetic work. We will have hardwood flooring installed on the first floor and new carpets in the bedrooms, then move in. I will be happily busy for the next few years, removing wallpaper, putting in a major garden and cooking up a storm in my kitchen. We are paying a little less than 3 times my husband’s salary. We didn’t include mine as a physical therapist because we are the quintessential conservatives!
Thanks to all of you- Ben especially- for the education and information through these last insane years. We just couldn’t understand the mentality. We went through the 90’s crash and thought that was why we didn’t chant the mantra! My engineer husband lost his job and found a new one in Arlington Heights, Il. We sold our home in Long Beach for about 1/3 less than it had been “worth” two years before. But many, many others went
through it and didn’t seem to learn anything. This blog has been the voice of reason in a crazy world. It has also been the voice of crazy-you know who you are! I am always assured of a good laugh and something that makes me think- two very important things.

Comment by DinOR
2009-05-07 09:16:59

CJ,

And just (1) happy ending makes it all worth it!

Just moving from Arlington Heights is in and of itself a value! Even if you’re just shuffling over to Schau….mberg? ( Let alone Ventura County ) Good luck and have fun re-doing the 70’s home!

 
Comment by awaiting wipeout
2009-05-07 10:47:40

CJ-
Welcome aboard. We are renting in Thousand Oaks, after we sold an oversized McMansion in east Ventura County a while ago. I am very interested in your experience with the bank, and any advice you might have for me. I’m married to an Engineer, and paying cash too. If you would be so kind, can you eamil me at your convenience at inqrymind@verizon.net. - (no real@@@s).

 
Comment by WT Economist
2009-05-07 10:53:11

Great news!

Many on this blog are dedicated renters, but I like homeownership for those who get a fair price in a place they have a reasonable expectation of staying in the rest of their lives. The housing bubble ruined it. The bust could restore it.

Homeownership was supposed to promote community and neighborhood connections. But somehow Americans both own too often AND move too often, buying homes with the expectation of selling and moving. Let’s hope we’ve seen the back of that for a couple of generations.

 
Comment by Muir
2009-05-07 11:18:43

Wow!
Great uplifting story.

Just great!

(congrats)

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2009-05-07 11:37:59

CJ, it warms my heart to hear an HBB success story!

If you low-balled by 25% under already-heavily-reduced prices, I would guess that your downside risk on the price is very limited. And since you bought with cash, you have no leverage to increase your risk or potentially force a sale at a bad time due to cash-flow problems (ignoring property taxes, of course).

Nice work! I congratulate and salute you.

 
Comment by crazy frog
2009-05-07 14:07:15

Congratulations, CJ! Well done.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 17:32:21

I will be happily busy for the next few years, removing wallpaper, putting in a major garden and cooking up a storm in my kitchen. We are paying a little less than 3 times my husband’s salary. We didn’t include mine as a physical therapist because we are the quintessential conservatives!

I freakin’ LOVE a story with a happy ending!
And may I advise you to start the herb garden first? That way you multi-task.)

Comment by CJ
2009-05-07 21:03:30

Olygal,
I have rosemary, oregano and lavendar in pots. Lemon and orange trees too. I have been gardening on my patio and am so looking forward to branching out!

Thanks to everyone for the kind words. HBBers are the best!

 
 
 
Comment by measton
2009-05-07 08:49:40

Data from millions of mortgages show the big financial institutions at the center of the financial crisis were major players in the housing-market abuses that precipitated it, a new report argues.

Mining federal lending data, the May 6 report from the Center for Public Integrity, a Washington watchdog group, concluded that nearly all of the top 25 subprime mortgage lenders, responsible for roughly $1 trillion in high-interest loans from 2005 through 2007, were owned or heavily financed by major Wall Street and commercial banks. Several of those major banks have received federal bailout funds over the last eight months

and why not, when you know you are too big to fail the decision to gamble with other peoples money becomes easy.

Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-07 12:48:10

But, but… everyone KNOWS it was dem po’ folks who bought more house than they could afford! Not the fraud from top to bottom! Uh uh, no way!

Talk show radio and Fox News says so!

 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-07 12:49:47

Gotta love poetic justice.

So rare yet so satisfying.

 
 
Comment by whino
2009-05-07 10:11:51

The article comes complete with pictures. Enjoy! :-D

An hors d’oeuvre of an unexpected species

Diner says broccoli side dish also held a snake head

http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=797662

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 18:29:37

The important part is: what’d it taste like?

 
 
Comment by whino
2009-05-07 10:20:14

Builder pleads guilty to grand larceny

http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=797663

Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-07 12:52:52

Gotta love it.

 
Comment by exeter
2009-05-07 15:14:35

Whino, Are you from the capital district?

 
 
Comment by cactus
2009-05-07 10:33:35

looks like demand for 10 year treasuries is waning

except maybe Bernake he keeps buying

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 11:03:12

What’s the worry, so long as the buyer of last resort has a well-functioning printing press at his disposal?

Comment by packman
2009-05-07 11:10:49

Yep.

That’s why TBT and GLD are a winning combination IMO, under the current conditions and for the foreseeable future.

Comment by Muir
2009-05-07 11:33:19

Hard to find any holes in that plan.
That strategy seems to be doing better than a commodities play.

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Comment by eastcoaster
2009-05-07 10:35:04

Update on my parents “Realtor-only” open house. It went as I expected - lots of stupid, worthless, HGTV advice, “You have too many magnets on the refrigerator - it looks cluttered - remove them.” Yeah, THAT’S why the house isn’t selling.

There is an interested buyer who recently saw the house, but they commented that it’s listed too high (+1 from me!). I had told my mom a few weeks ago to drop it to $399K (started at $450K, then to $440K, currently at $420K) and plan on getting $350K - $375K. Well today my mom finally agreed and that’s their plan.

First they will wait to see what offer the one interested party makes (parents’ realtor is going to speak with the other realtor to encourage an offer be made). If it’s anywhere in that range, they’ll sell. If not, price will come down under $400K.

Comment by exeter
2009-05-07 15:16:47

If I were there, my name would end up in the police blotter cuz I’d end up choking a realturd for stupid, snob-like comments.

 
 
Comment by packman
2009-05-07 11:17:03

LOL. Just call me “Mr. Impeccable Timing”.

Comment by packman
2009-05-04 10:45:52

This market is un-freaking-believable. I have been officially humbled as a short, and need to get out. I really didn’t think this rally would last this long and be this strong, and have been squozen to the breaking point.

(shakes head)

Sad thing is I know for sure that now the market will tank the coming weeks.

Since I closed my two main shorts CCL and CTX (most at least - I held onto a *little*), three days ago they’re now down 15% for one and 4% the other.

I would be tempted to jump back in, but I know as soon as I did that they’d start back up again.

So - feel free anyone - they’re a sure bet to continue down. After you make your mint just buy me a beer sometime if we meet.

Comment by Elanor
2009-05-07 14:30:33

Cheer up, packman! I sold some SRS today, so it’s sure to skyrocket over the next few weeks. :D

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 11:52:48

Wall Street Journal

* MAY 7, 2009

House Panel to Probe BofA’s Merrill Deal
CEO Lewis and Federal Officials Will Be Asked to Testify Next Month

Lawmakers have yet to determine which U.S. officials will end up testifying under oath before the House Oversight panel chaired by Rep. Edolphus Towns (D, N.Y.). Top Treasury and Fed officials could be called to appear under oath, the person familiar with the investigation said.

Mr. Bernanke on Tuesday denied to a joint congressional committee that he had asked Mr. Lewis to hide any disclosures or withhold information. In an April 30 letter to Rep. Towns, he said the Fed had acted with the “highest integrity” in its discussions with Bank of America.

“Let me be clear: At no time during these discussions did I or any member of the Federal Reserve direct, instruct or advise anyone at Bank of America to withhold from public disclosure information about Merrill Lynch,” Mr. Bernanke wrote.

 
Comment by measton
2009-05-07 12:11:34

Krugman NYT

First things first: anecdotes about falling wages are proliferating, but how broad is the phenomenon? The answer is, very.

It’s true that many workers are still getting pay increases. But there are enough pay cuts out there that, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average cost of employing workers in the private sector rose only two-tenths of a percent in the first quarter of this year — the lowest increase on record. Since the job market is still getting worse, it wouldn’t be at all surprising if overall wages started falling later this year.

But why is that a bad thing? After all, many workers are accepting pay cuts in order to save jobs. What’s wrong with that?

The answer lies in one of those paradoxes that plague our economy right now. We’re suffering from the paradox of thrift: saving is a virtue, but when everyone tries to sharply increase saving at the same time, the effect is a depressed economy. We’re suffering from the paradox of deleveraging: reducing debt and cleaning up balance sheets is good, but when everyone tries to sell off assets and pay down debt at the same time, the result is a financial crisis.

And soon we may be facing the paradox of wages:

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 15:17:11

“And soon we may be facing the paradox of wages:”

Or is it selectivity bias? One could see rising wages during a period of rising unemployment if the statistician conveniently neglected to omit newly unemployed workers (whose wage is presumably in the neighborhood of $0) from the sample frame.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 15:19:48

Ditto for rising (average) productivity, if the average only includes those fortunate enough (and productive enough) to retain their jobs while others are laid off.

 
 
Comment by LehighValleyGuy
2009-05-08 11:05:40

Once again, the “Paradox of Thrift” is Keynesian BS. If people start saving more, that means that more capital is available (and more people will be employed) for long-term projects, rather than for gratifying immediate desires. This is NOT bad for the economy, it is a necessary part of the cycle.

Please refer to:

http://mises.org/story/3194

Sample quote:

“Thus the decision to save more doesn’t reduce total income or employment, once everyone adjusts to the new spending patterns. It is really no different from a scenario where thousands of people become health conscious and decide to spend their money on vegetables rather than fast food.”

 
 
Comment by measton
2009-05-07 12:17:29

WASHINGTON (AP) — Consumer borrowing plunged in March at the fastest pace in 18 years as Americans put away their credit cards and hoarded cash amid the worst recession in decades.

The Federal Reserve says consumer borrowing dropped 5.2 percent in March, the biggest decline since an 8.1 percent fall in December 1990.

In dollar terms, consumer borrowing plunged by $11.1 billion. That’s the largest dollar amount on records dating to 1943, and more than three times the $3.5 billion drop that economists expected

Falling wages, rising unemployment, and decreased borrowing do not spell recovery in my book.

Comment by whino
2009-05-07 12:23:52

Sounds like more Bullish news to send the market upwards to me. :-D

 
Comment by packman
2009-05-07 12:26:24

“hoarded” = doublespeak for “saved”.

My new pet peeve is the use of the word “hoarded”. It’s the latest MSM media way to talk down things like saving for a rainy day.

Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-05-07 16:40:29

packman,

Yup. The word hoarded has a selfish conatation to it vs. the word saved.

Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-05-07 16:42:45

arrgh,

Pressed the add comment to quickly.

Should read,

packman,

Yup. The word hoarded has a selfish connotation to it vs. the word saved.

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Comment by LehighValleyGuy
2009-05-08 11:09:07

FDR was the master of this type of double-speak. He would crucify people who “hoarded” gold, as if this practice was somehow responsible for high unemployment.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by measton
2009-05-07 12:20:29

This bank bailout thing = trickle down economics which is a proven failure. Until I see meaningfull efforts to decrease unemployment and stop the free fall in wages and benefits I won’t believe in any rally.

Comment by muir
2009-05-07 14:52:58

You and many may well be right.

 
 
Comment by measton
2009-05-07 12:25:42

Bond auction went poorly today

The snowball has left the moutain ledge, I hope their printing press goes up to 11.

Comment by holytrainwreck
2009-05-07 14:20:19

China has cut up the U.S. Credit Card.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2009-05-07 16:21:43

“I hope their printing press goes up to 11.”

…but……THIS one goes to _11_!

 
 
Comment by DennisN
2009-05-07 12:55:07

Do you guys mind if I expose myself here? My ignorance specifically.

I know nothing about bonds other than that they are a debt instrument that is senior in bankruptcy to equity instruments. (Except in the case of GM bonds which my be subordinated to union demands by govt. fiat.) Is the book “Bond Investing for Dummies” by Russell Wild a decent starting place? Any better suggestions?

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 16:53:10

- Treasury bond:

You pay Uncle Sam $1000 (or some similar round nominal payment amount), in exchange for an IOU. The IOU is good as long as Uncle Sam’s printing press is up and running. The amount you get back depends on the yield, and when you get it back depends on the term. E.g., if a $1000 30-year T-bond yields 6 percent, then you get back $30 (anachronistically called “coupon payments”) at the end of every six months after you purchase it, with return of $1000 at the end of 30 years. The value of that final return of $1000 is heavily dependent on the level of inflation during the intervening years, with high inflation eating it away, low inflation helping it retain its value and deflation actually increasing the value of future coupons and return of principle.

- Corporate bonds

- Corporate bonds work similarly, except you buy the IOU from a company instead of from Uncle Sam. If the company goes under, your IOU may become worth less or worthless, as the case may be. They may also be “callable,” which gives the company the right to pay you back before the term is up (similar to what you do if you refinance your mortgage before the term is up). You are also similarly exposed to inflation risk, especially if the term of the bond is for a long period of years. Since corporate bonds have more risks, they tend to pay higher yields to compensate investors (especially junk bonds, which have no collateral to back them up).

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 16:56:16

P.S. If Mr Market smells inflation, he avoids purchasing long-term bonds, which makes their price go down and yields go up, as investors demand an inflation risk premium to compensate them for anticipated decrease in the value of the principle over time. However, this inflation risk equilibrating mechanism can become distorted if 800 lb gorilla buyers of last resort intervene in the market.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 17:03:27

P.P.S. You can pretty much lump all assets that are not cash into the category of “bonds” — that is, some kind of promise to pay you something of value in the future in exchange for money you hand over today. Some “bonds” are secured by real property (a mortgage-backed security or a corporate stock, for example :-) ) while others are secured by the credibility of the IOU issuer’s promise to repay them (e.g. Treasury bonds versus corporate bonds).

The amount you pay for a “bond” (aka security or financial asset) in this general classification depends on, among other things,

1) Your ability to sell it to someone else (liquidity);
2) The probability any promised future payments will be made (credit risk);
3) The amount of future payments that will be made (profit risk, in corporate earnings streams, that affect dividend payments);
4) The probability the nominal value of future payments will hold up in real terms (inflation risk for domestic bonds and exchange rate risk for international bonds).

There is more, but hopefully that gives you a little bit of a start…

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Comment by DennisN
2009-05-07 17:46:25

Well you didn’t answer my exact question - what book to read - but you started me off in the right direction.

Apparently bonds don’t pay compound interest on the IOU, only simple interest.

One of my banks - Zions Bank - sent me an email today about an offer of 1 year bonds at 5.5% interest. That short-term rate sounds interesting to me, so long as Zions is solvent. The hassle however is that they are holding an “auction” for the bonds and make you bid for them.

Olygal may not approve - Zions Bank once was the official bank of the LDS church. ;)

 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 18:33:51

Olygal may not approve - Zions Bank once was the official bank of the LDS church.

And until last month, that’s where I had much of my savings. I clung too long, from pure nostalgia. It was actually a wrench to leave. Funny, huh?
Because I opened my first savings account at the little local brick-front branch when I was 11 years old…I remember the day. I was banking baby-sitting money, and saving up for winter shoes, and wanted to put it where no one could get it.

Hmmm. Some kinds of nostalgia are not so fun as the ‘remembering the lilacs’ kind.

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-05-07 22:02:50

P.P.S. You can pretty much lump all assets that are not cash into the category of “bonds” — that is, some kind of promise to pay you something of value in the future in exchange for money you hand over today.

Interesting way of putting it, PB/GS. “Something of value” is a pretty…sketchy phrase. You’re not necessarily getting something of value - you’re getting fiat value in return for whatever you hand over today, no?

Bonds aren’t paid in toilet paper, cigarettes, or booze, are they? It’s very possible that the fiat you are paid in return is of little value compared to what you gave them at the beginning.

 
Comment by drumminj
2009-05-07 22:03:47

K…something to make a note of. “Toilet Paper” is not one of the flagged phrases that puts a post into limbo…

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 23:00:07

“Bonds aren’t paid in toilet paper, cigarettes, or booze, are they? It’s very possible that the fiat you are paid in return is of little value compared to what you gave them at the beginning.”

If investors are afraid of this scenario, then yields will shoot through the roof — like the 14 pct or so that l-t T-bonds were paying back around 1980. Unless there is an 800 lb gorilla investor of last resort keeping a lid on yields, that is…

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by mrktMaven
2009-05-07 12:55:59

I miss you guys. The flu is still kicking my ass. Is the bounce over?

Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 13:11:52

Yes. All over.
…Oh, wait! I mean ‘no’.
…Oh, wait, dadgummit, I mean ‘yes’ again….

:)

Comment by mrktMaven
2009-05-07 13:28:43

Looks like the PPT wants the upcoming capital raising to be minimally dilutive to existing shareholders. Incredibly, the SPX is near the 200 day moving average.

Comment by bink
2009-05-07 13:53:17

How can I take in money for my company without diluting any of my ownership stake and without increasing my debt load?

Maybe I should convert to a bank. But it’s not like deposits are soaring..

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Comment by Olympiagal
2009-05-07 14:05:35

Looks like the PPT wants the upcoming capital raising to be minimally dilutive to existing shareholders. Incredibly, the SPX is near the 200 day moving average.

Well, that’s what I SAID, innit?
:lol:

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Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-05-07 14:47:07

BREAKING NEWS on CNNMoney
New York Fed Chairman Stephen Friedman resigns, saying reports ‘mischaracterized’ his ties to banks as a conflict. More soon.

At least he didn’t say, “…in order to spend more time with family…”

And good to see he wasn’t found, “…dead of an apparent suicide…”

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 15:13:26

Any chance Goldman Sachs will offer him a position?

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 16:42:54

Just slip out the back, Jack.
Make a new plan, Sam.
No need to be coy, Roy –
Just set yourself free.
Hop on the bus, Gus.
No need to discuss much!
Drop off the key, Lee,
and set your-self free.

John Gapper’s Business Blog
Stephen Friedman slips out of the New York Fed
May 7, 2009 11:57pm

Stephen Friedman picked his moment to resign as the chairman of the New York Federal Reserve. If you want to minimise the headlines, what better moment to make an announcement than when the bank stress tests are disclosed?

Mr Friedman says he stayed on the NY Fed board despite Goldman becoming a bank holding company out of a sense of public duty, but his decision is “being mischaracterised as improper”.

I noted in an earlier post that it was odd for Mr Friedman to be a Class C director of the Fed - representing the US public - when he was formerly a senior partner of Goldman Sachs. The Fed ought to be able to find someone less closely tied to Wall Street.

He may have done his best to act appropriately, but he was right to depart.

May 7, 2009 11:57pm in Finance | Comment

 
 
 
Comment by jeff saturday
2009-05-07 16:52:19

Are you a terrorist? No, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night.

Port St. Lucie Holiday Inn evacuated after bag with radiation found in room
May 7th, 2009 by Post Staff
By JASON SCHULTZ

The Holiday Inn has been evacuated after firefighters found a radioactive bag in the hotel tonight, according to fire district officials.

“Nobody is in immediate danger,” said St. Lucie County Fire District spokeswoman Catherine Chaney.

Firefighters were called to the hotel at 10120 S. Federal Highway near Jennings Road around 5:15 p.m. because of a man having trouble breathing, Chaney said . The man told firefighters that he was suffering from radiation sickness, but when he was tested with a Geiger counter no radiation was found.
However, when firefighters tested a black bag found in a room near the foyer of the hotel, the Gieger counter did find radiation, Chaney said.

“The radiation monitor spiked,” she said. “We’re not sure of everything that is in the bag.”

The hotel was evacuated. Chaney did not know if the man who was having trouble breathing required any medical treatment.

Port St. Lucie police spokesman Tom Nichols said the hotel was being considered a crime scene and police were taking over the investigation. As of 7:15 p.m. the hotel was still evacuated, with fewer than 50 people displaced, Chaney said. Traffic in the area has not been affected by the incident, she said.

Comment by jeff saturday
2009-05-07 18:48:28

Kind of strange, I went back to Palm Beach Post.com to see what comments were posted about this story and this story was gone. Not anywhere in today’s local headlines. Maybe someone besides the Port Saint Lucie police are looking into it.

 
Comment by jeff saturday
2009-05-07 19:12:21

No radiation, they blew up the bag.

Comment by cobaltblue
2009-05-07 21:35:23

“Radiate me, at the market, all or none, fill or kill.”

Something you might hear at the Atomic Exchange in Fission City.

Comment by cobaltblue
2009-05-07 21:37:23

Sometimes in the afternoon you might find a little sign on a doorknob - “Gone fission”.

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Comment by drumminj
2009-05-07 22:05:42

okay, I might’ve been drinking a little bit tonight, but thanks for the laugh, corny as it may have been :)

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 23:09:41

Wall Street Journal

* ROI
* MAY 7, 2009, 10:16 P.M. ET

Wall Street Loves Bad Banks, but You Shouldn’t
Don’t worry about bank stocks. There are better opportunities out there.

By BRETT ARENDS

These weren’t stress tests. This was stress therapy.

The main purpose of this exercise wasn’t to see whether banks could cope with an economic downturn. It was to calm investors’ nerves. They were in panic about six weeks ago, when markets, and the economy, appeared on the brink.

That’s why the Fed made these tests so easy. Their “worst case scenario” for the economy was actually rosier than some current forecasts. Half the banks flunked anyway, but nobody seems to care. Bank of America is short about $35 billion? Oh, mark those shares up 300%.

Almost anything is better than the unknown, which is what was spooking everybody two months ago.

Seems Wall Street is back in its happy place again. Banks and other highly leveraged stocks have skyrocketed. Fund managers, many of whom have come late to the rally, are now worried about “underperforming” before their next quarterly review. So many are now madly rushing to buy the riskiest stocks they can (Sheldon Adelson’s debt-laden Las Vegas Sands is up sixfold from its March lows).

What does this mean for you and your money?

Don’t worry about momentum and action, and don’t worry about bank stocks. They may be cheap for all I know. But they are impossible to value with any degree of confidence. And who cares? The single greatest realization that hits every investor, and every poker player, is the same. You don’t have to bet on every hand. Nine times out of 10, the right move is simply to sit it out.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 23:13:48

Bonuses, shmonuses — Let’s take away their bailouts, and see how well the banks survive their stress tests!!!

Wall Street Journal

* OPINION: THE TILTING YARD
* MAY 6, 2009

Let’s Move Their Cheese
We can get better bank management for a fraction of the cost.

By THOMAS FRANK

Incentives work, all right. Just look at the way our bankers come back to bonuses, finding in every occasion a good opportunity to cut themselves a slice of largess. Their determination is unrelenting, monomaniacal. It’s like Republicans returning to tax cuts, the universal solution to every problem.

Some institutions, we read, are struggling to free themselves from the TARP, because of its exuberance-chilling compensation limits. Others have decimated their workforces, apparently so they might continue to shower money on the favored ones. Still other institutions have signaled that they would rather borrow at higher rates of interest than accept the compensation limits that come with cheaper federal loans. And certain banks are on track to return to pre-recession compensation levels this year, according to a story last week in the New York Times. Goldman Sachs, for example, set aside $4.7 billion for compensation in the first quarter alone.

Another way incentives work is this: They have kept the debate over incentives from getting off the dime for years. There is no amount of shame that will deter the bonus class from pressing their demand, no scandal that will put it off limits, no public outrage over AIG or Enron or really expensive Merrill Lynch trash cans that will silence the managers’ monotonous warble: “Attract and retain top talent!”

And there is no possible objection to inflated compensation you can make that will not be instantly maligned as senseless populism.

In truth, however, the verdict has been in for years. Pay for performance systems, at least as they exist in many places, are a recipe for disaster.

What they have “incentivized” executives to do, in countless cases, is not to perform, but to game the system, to smooth the numbers, to take insane risks with other people’s money, to do whatever had to be done to ring the bell and send the dollars coursing their way into the designated bank account.

It may well be true that those in our bonus class are geniuses, but in far too many cases their fantastic brain power is focused not on serving shareholders or guiding our economy but simply on getting that bonus.

One might say that events of the last year had proved this fairly conclusively.

Or one could quote the immortal words of Franklin Raines, the onetime CEO of Fannie Mae, as they were recorded by Business Week in 2003: “My experience is where there is a one-to-one relation between if I do X, money will hit my pocket, you tend to see people doing X a lot. You’ve got to be very careful about that. Don’t just say: ‘If you hit this revenue number, your bonus is going to be this.’ It sets up an incentive that’s overwhelming. You wave enough money in front of people, and good people will do bad things.”

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-07 23:17:40

Wall Street Journal

Technology News and Insights

* April 21, 2009, 8:01 AM ET

South Korean Blogger Beats False-Information Charge
By Marisa Taylor

Park Dae-sung, the South Korean blogger who was arrested in January and accused by the government of spreading false information about the worsening global economy, was found not guilty on Monday,
Reuters reported.

“Even if there was recognition that it was false information, he cannot be seen as having acted on purpose to harm public interest considering the situation at the time including the special nature of the foreign exchange market,” said Presiding Judge Yoo Young-hyeon.

Mr. Park called his blog “Minerva” after the Greek goddess of knowledge, and prosecutors thought his negative comments about the government’s handling of money were leading to the decline in value of the South Korean won.

But for an unemployed 30-year-old, who lived with his father and had no formal economics education other than from books he ordered online, his posts appeared to be prescient. He predicted the collapse of Lehman Brothers days before it happened and gained national attention by making some 280 postings on a popular Web site, many containing negative financial predictions that turned out to be true.

Human-rights groups have criticized the government’s use of the charge of “spreading false information with the intent of harming the public interest” to arrest Mr. Park. In a statement before the judge, Mr. Park said: “South Korea may be the only country in the world where a man is tried because he criticized the government’s foreign currency policies.”

Mr. Park may be free to blog again, but comments on the Korea Times showed that not everyone is thrilled to hear what he has to say. While user mwhitaker wrote, “What was he arrested for, if gov’t ADMITTED ‘Minerva’ was correct? Arrested for nothing. Case closed. [South Korean president] Lee should stop whining about internet & lead Korea forward instead of backward.”

 
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