May 18, 2009

Buyer Arrogance Has Surpassed Seller Arrogance

The News Herald reports from Florida. “The model of the planned 155-acre NatureWalk at Seagrove includes trees, homes and meandering pathways, a testament to the sometimes extravagant plans dreamed up by developers during the real estate boom. But other than some photographs and renderings and a few pieces of furniture, the rest of the room is bare. Several dead or dying plants sit in an adjacent room and weeds sprout through cracks in the brick pathway outside. It’s a story being played out in many developments that took root during the real estate boom but have since died or are having a prolonged near-death experience.”

“A sign at the entrance of Waterview at Inlet Beach at the Bay County lines says ‘For Sale or Trade; Any offer considered.’ The sign references a lot close to one owned by Lane Betz of Madison, Ala. She said she and her husband purchased the lot in 2005 as an investment, but when it didn’t sell they decided to build a house there. Construction was completed last February and they’re still waiting for a buyer.”

“She said the developer ‘cut his price so low on his lot that it brought down all the prices in the neighborhood.’ ‘People are just uninterested now,’ said Betz, who added that ‘they want something for nothing’ and the lot is priced for a less than what she and her husband paid for it.”

“While sales at WaterColor appear to be doing well, Realtor Bobby Jones said developments such as Lakeside at Blue Mountain, Serenity at Dune Allen and Grayton Cove in Grayton Beach still seem to be struggling. ‘You can tell we’re at the bottom because the buyer arrogance has surpassed the seller arrogance of 2005,’ he said.”

The Ledger. “If the Four Corners real estate market starts to pick up - and there are signs that it has - it could once again be Europeans coming to the rescue. ‘We’re getting into the spring buying season, and we’re actually getting some sales now,’ said Pete Howlett, who runs Orlando Vacation Realty in Four Corners.”

“Howlett added that the low prices are making this a tough market for buyers to resist. ‘You are seeing the affordability index go down,’ he said. ‘That’s a good thing. Before, sometimes people were upside down on their mortgage before they even bought the house.’”

“For the construction industry, the timing couldn’t have been worse: new, expensive subdivisions opened for sale just as the housing bubble was bursting, leaving entire developments with a huge inventory of unsold units. Now some local Realtors say these subdivisions are facing a new, equally serious challenge: collapsing homeowner associations that can no longer afford to pay basic bills, because so few of the remaining homeowners are sending in their monthly HOA dues.”

“‘The HOAs are a mess right now,” said Sean DePasquale, a senior loan officer with Florida Mortgage Partners Inc. He said this is a particular problem for condominiums that have a lot of unsold or foreclosed units, and it’s tough to get a mortgage these days for anyone interested in buying one of these units at a bargain basement price. ‘Condos are not even on the radar right now for loans,’ he said.”

The Herald Tribune. “After the residential real estate market peaked in the summer of 2005 and the commercial market began to cool a year later, hotels enjoyed a brief period in which they were viewed as the hottest commodity in a rapidly shrinking real estate world. Even seemingly dead condo conversion projects were resurrected as fractional ownership resorts in which buyers could own a piece of a condo by the beach.”

“But now, in the midst of what seems to be the recession of a lifetime, hotel projects are disintegrating like sand castles by the sea. ‘These hotels that you see failing are the aftermath of attempted condo conversions that were purchased too high and were finished in a now depressed market,’ said Larry Starr, the president of Resort Quest of Sarasota. ‘They did not come off as condo conversions and are probably too expensive to cash flow as hotels.’”

“The result, Starr said, is that these properties will be seized by banks and sold to investors who will pay prices based on the cash flow these properties can generate as hotels. With regard to the larger hotel projects that hyped in 2007, most of those are not going to get built. ‘The only answer is to wait for tomorrow,’ Starr said. ‘But when tomorrow will come, I don’t know.’”

The Miami Herald. “During Miami’s recent land boom as developers rushed to erect as many soaring residential condos as possible, developer Alan Ojeda cut a decidedly different path when he built One Broadway, a 36-story rental tower in the growing Brickell residential district. So, up went a 371-unit luxury building — boasting ‘everything you love about Brickell living, without the Brickell mortgage. Or condo association fees. Or taxes,’ the property’s website says.”

“A glut of condos that either nobody wants or can’t buy for lack of financing is leading to a rapid expansion of the so-called shadow market, which is luring droves of tenants away from traditional rental communities like One Broadway. The trend is forcing owners of multi-family properties to reduce rents and offer other perks and incentives to draw tenants.”

“Builders, who failed to diagnose the bubble before it was too late, vastly overestimated demand for their product among buyers who intended to live in the properties. Instead, speculators rushed in. Now, in some recently completed projects, walk-away rates are higher than 70 percent as investors, chastened by plunging values, leave deposits on the table.”

“Also adding to the surplus are some 16,000 condo conversions that have once again reverted to apartments in so-called ‘conversion-reversions’ in the last two years, according to Jack McCabe, a South Florida real estate analyst who specializes in the multi-family market. ‘Right now, they can’t sell the units; they can’t tear them down. You can’t mothball them. The only alternative is the rental process and for them it’s a losing proposition,’ McCabe said.”

“As for developer-owned rentals, tenants still face having to show their apartments to prospective buyers and move out if the unit is sold or the developer goes bankrupt, Ojeda said. Often enormous buildings are run by skeleton crews. But because One Broadway was planned as a rental, it avoids those problems. One Broadway has luxury appointments rivaling its condo neighbors as well as a large staff of 22 people, four of whom live on site.”

”’Here we are in the business of pampering you,’ Ojeda said. ‘Condo owners are captive owners, but if I don’t treat my customers well, they leave.”’

The News Press. “Bargain hunters picked up riverfront condos for as little as $145,000 Saturday during an auction of 62 units at the 27-story Riviera towers. Homes for America Inc. held the auction at the request of lenders, to stimulate sales at the Riviera, a three-tower project east of the Caloosahatchee Bridge. Previous sales at the Riviera sold 94 of its 160 units. Prices ranged from $179,000 to $325,000. Units originally sold for $450,000 to $600,000.”

“Jack and Rise’ Gian of the River Forest community in Lee County came to bid for a unit. ‘We would be investors,’ Jack Gian said.”

“They expected the cost of a unit to exceed their bid. ‘The maintenance fees, taxes and holding costs are going to be the downside,’ Jack Gian said.”

“A lot more. Those three words sum up how much a Lee County homebuyer can get now than when the market was at its zenith in 2005. In almost every price range, larger. Cape Coral instead of Lehigh Acres. Waterfront instead of dry land. Four bedrooms instead of three.”

“Since December 2005, when the median cost of an existing single-family home hit its all-time high of $322,300, prices have fallen by more than two-thirds. In March 2009, the last month available, the median was $88,500. And for those at the bottom, the difference is between owning your own home and being doomed to a seeming life sentence of paying rent.”

“Welcome to the golden age of house hunting.”

“‘I just sold a pool home in Waterway Estates (in North Fort Myers), a little bit older house, for $99,900,” said Steve Koffman, a real estate broker in the Cape. ‘I bought an older pool home for $85,000 in 1991.’”

“The same home in 2005, he said, would have gone for more than three times that. One person who bought recently said he’s glad he did, although prices have continued to plummet. ‘It’s better than renting, period,’ said Bob Pearce, who bought a three-bedroom, two-bath house in the Cape for $40,500 five months ago.”

“His mortgage is about $400, which is less than he’d been paying in rent. He keeps an eye on prices, and knows they’ve continued to decline but isn’t worried about it. ‘They’ve come down a little bit, but now I’m hearing they’re possibly going up again because of the investors,’ Pearce said. ‘I’m happy because it’s going to keep my value up.’”

The News Journal. “Through a partnership with the federal government, local United Way, private donations and area agencies, about 64 families could become homeowners — some as early as next summer. The prospective homebuyer steadily saves up to $2,000 and attends about 10 classes, such as budgeting, savings, household management and credit repair.”

“In return, they’ll get another $4,000 toward the purchase of a house — $2,000 from the Community Foundation and $2,000 from the federal government. ‘The whole program is teaching them the habit of being successful in their home,’ said Renee Gay, project director for the United Way, which is administering the $300,000 program. ‘We don’t want to put people in a home that they can’t keep and will be foreclosed upon.’”

“Brenda Voss and her husband, Luke Bodigon have been living in the Neighborhood Center’s transitional house in DeLand with their two daughters since March after Bodigon said he was laid off from his carpentry job last year and their three-bedroom Orange City house went into foreclosure. The family spent some time apart while Bodigon tried to find work out of state and they spent time at the agency’s shelter and housing for women and children.”

“The family is saving about $100 a week by not running the electricity as much, not eating out, and getting free movies at the library. ‘It’s tough having your own place and your own cars and thinking your job is secure and you go from that to nothing,’ Bodigon said. ‘Never say never.’”




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137 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2009-05-18 09:53:36

‘A Southwest Florida realty team is buying up hundreds of foreclosed homes, ready to rehab them and get them back on the market. But will this be a repeat of 2005 with investors flooding the market?”

“During the housing boom, investors bought into the Riviera, a luxury water-front condominium in downtown Fort Myers, and tomorrow, 75 units will be sold to the highest bidder because the developer has too many sitting empty. ‘This is the first time that I’ve actually entered the house,’ Courtney Neuhausel, says.”

“He bought the home at 307 NE 11th Avenue in Cape Coral sight unseen. ‘This is what you get for $31,000,’ Neuhausel says.

‘Lenders say it’s nearly impossible to get a loan on a house like the one he purchased, because banks consider them “risky.” No one can live in it as-is, so it often takes someone, like Neuhausel, who can untie it from the bank with cash. ‘I can rehab this house for about $20,000,’ Neuhausel says.’

‘He hopes to turn around and sell it for about $80,000.’

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-05-18 10:33:55

This kind of ‘flipping’ is actually not terrible. Buying a house that actually needs renovations to be habitable (And not just ‘needs’ renovations because the countertop isn’t granite.) at a steep discount for cash and doing the renovations and selling the house once it’s fixed up is the actual business model that got blown into a crazed hype by HGTV etc.

However, buying it ’sight unseen’ is not part of that model. It used to be done by skilled tradesmen as a side job, and they inspected the house from top to bottom and knew exactly what they were doing, how long they’d need to do it, and what it would cost them.

And I suspect this guy doesn’t know which end of a hammer to hold. He’s going to hire a team to ‘make it pretty’ and wind up getting eaten alive by the actual costs of the restoration.

Comment by Mo Money
2009-05-18 11:02:22

Like we need more shoddy fix ups like those Montelongo jerks do. Half assed putty on rot and paint jobs on tiles that is sure to fail about the same time the 1st mortage payment is due.

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-05-18 16:04:19

I’m not saying this guy is going to do a good job. I’m saying that at least in theory this is the ‘correct’ kind of flipping. Buy a run-down house, make it habitable, pocket some profits.

However, it used to be you never saw people who couldn’t do the work/GCing themselves trying to do this kind of thing because the expenses of hiring it done eats the profit. It’s not a ‘get rich quick’ scheme. It’s just business. People never got rich of this kind of thing, but they could make a decent living at it. And it was usually side projects that they’d do when their main business of getting paid to do it for other people was slow.

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Comment by are they crazy
2009-05-18 19:15:46

They also didn’t expect as large a profit margin. My sweetie grew up that way. 14 houses in 12 years as a side business/hobby for dad.

 
 
 
Comment by Neil
2009-05-18 13:36:38

However, buying it ’sight unseen’ is not part of that model. It used to be done by skilled tradesmen as a side job, and they inspected the house from top to bottom and knew exactly what they were doing, how long they’d need to do it, and what it would cost them.

For my whole life, teams of young tradesmen would buy a flip, live in it while fixing it up, and sell it. Profits were split buy initial investment and hours put into the project. That is healthy flipping.

This is… a wolf in sheep’s clothing about to get sheared. There is smart flipping. This isn’t it. If it would go for $80k today, what will it go for when 75 hit the market?

Got Popcorn?
Neil

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-05-18 16:06:10

Yup. These are the knife catchers that are facilitating an orderly liquidation of the market. Anybody who is buying and not expecting to lose money is a little delusional or excessively optimistic.

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Comment by SaladSD
2009-05-18 21:50:03

I agree, if you can salvage a home in distress then I’m all for it. Seems like a good investment in recycling resources that would otherwise go to landfill. I’m watching a couple rehab a home that fell into foreclosure and was a total mess, and it’s been quite a joy to see the fruits of their labor. This is their home, not a flippy investment.

 
 
Comment by DennisN
2009-05-18 12:16:03

Funny about Neuhausel = Neu Haus ‘el = New House ‘ly. Almost like his name is German for “House Remodeler”.

 
Comment by Pondering the Mess
2009-05-19 09:56:35

This idiocy won’t end until we STOP having people buying up hordes of houses at “insider” prices to basically flip back to the public with stupid-high profits.

Until the average person can save up money and then buy a house, this Bubble will not be over.

 
 
Comment by yogurt
2009-05-18 09:57:31

‘People are just uninterested now,’ said Betz, who added that ‘they want something for nothing’ and the lot is priced for a less than what she and her husband paid for it.”

You’re the one who wants something for nothing, sweetie. The market price of anything is simply the highest price a member of the public is willing to pay for it.

Take it or leave it.

Comment by hip in zilker
2009-05-18 11:30:24

Why yogi, you don’t think that she deserves an enormous return simply for applying the sheer powerhouse of her intellect to investment decisions?

“She said she and her husband purchased the lot in 2005 as an investment, but when it didn’t sell they decided to build a house there.”

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-05-18 16:11:19

Nothing like doubling down on a pair of 2’s.

 
 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2009-05-18 13:19:14

I paid $48 for JDSU. Later they were asking $28 for it, which, if my math is correct, is less than what I paid for it. It’s now listed at less than $5 per share. So STFU.

Comment by DinOR
2009-05-18 15:27:53

Again, the exception I took to the original statement was, just how wiggly RE infestors have become or -allowed- themselves to become?

I’m selling, NO I’m renting it out..? uh… ( w/ lease2buy..? ) I’m..!

You’re what, clueless? So now we’re all supposed to wait around on pins and needles to see what you won’t come up with next? I can hardly wait to see the next rabbit you pull out of a hat? IMHO.

 
 
 
Comment by bob
2009-05-18 10:02:42

I am doing some day-dreaming here based on the clips provided above. Does anyone know how housing is in the keys? Are the specu-vestors managing to hang on? Would love any comments

—————————
“‘I just sold a pool home in Waterway Estates (in North Fort Myers), a little bit older house, for $99,900,” said Steve Koffman, a real estate broker in the Cape. ‘I bought an older pool home for $85,000 in 1991.’”

“The same home in 2005, he said, would have gone for more than three times that. One person who bought recently said he’s glad he did, although prices have continued to plummet. ‘It’s better than renting, period,’ said Bob Pearce, who bought a three-bedroom, two-bath house in the Cape for $40,500 five months ago.”

Comment by Bad Andy
2009-05-18 10:32:10

I can only speak to the Key West market. Still VERY high with few values to be found. Key West was traditionally high though…even before this mess.

Comment by DinOR
2009-05-18 10:40:13

“I bought an older pool home for $85,000 in 1991″

Can’t speak for others ( and I don’t even really know the FL market ) but statements like that really make me wonder if we were going to have a Housing Bubble with or withOUT the rest of the luggage that came along with it?

18 years, down the drain. I was just curious ( given this is FL/boomer play etc. ) if anyone else thought it was possible we could have had a lengthy and embarrassing meltdown -without- the use of Ninja loans and all?

I mean obviously all of the funny-money made it that much easier and painful, but what would this had looked like even w/ 5% down… “easy terms” and boomer hoardes coming -anyway-?

Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-18 14:00:27

If it wasn’t the current circumstances of “gaming the system” it would have been another.

Historically, all the RE boom-busts in this country have always been fueled by “gray area” games and fraud.

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Comment by DinOR
2009-05-18 14:43:44

ecofeco,

It’s a fairly recent pet theory of mine so I was just sounding folks out for a little feedback. We’ve often referred to this as nothing more than an extenstion of the Tech Bubble ( and all the hysterical coverage at The Onion )

In the early going I’m starting to agree, had it not been this, it surely would have been something else! And if you look at the way it unfolded, single family homes to condoze & lofts ultimately to apartment conversions it’s srtiking me every day, they were sub-bubbles.

In many cases, infestors seemed to have participated in them concurrently, but that really wasn’t the case. It seemed more like a “migration”. And you’re right, rife w/ fraud every step of the way.

 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-18 15:11:55

Good analogy with the dot.com bomb, DinOR. Same thing.

Many websites and technologies were sold for ridiculous amounts of money and therefore could not be allowed to fail, yet many did. Pets.com anyone? (since bought by PetSmart)

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-05-18 15:32:05

ecofeco,

I certainly won’t have been the first to have drawn ‘that’ parallel, in fact it’s so bad The Onion piece was:

“America needs new useless Bubble to invest in!”

Obviously loose credit had a LOT to do with it but as we’ve pointed out in the past, the really goofy loans didn’t get rolled out until the Bubble was already well underway!

So again, I’m really wondering if RE as “the target” of this latest round of speculation really wasn’t just… random?

 
Comment by oxide
2009-05-18 15:35:52

Don’t forget the MARGIN! Not only did the idiot F-buyers buy houses on margin, but the idiot F-banks bought margin, on margin. Then AIG insured the margined margin, on margin! Even some idiot F-countries (Iceland, maybe Ireland) bought FBanks’ margined margin on margin, by buying AIG (on yet another margin).

Dot-bomb wasn’t really on margin. When dot bombed, very few banks went down, job losses were mostly contained to one industry, and the government didn’t even have to think about whether to step in to help.

Housing is more like the stock bubble of 1928 or so.

 
Comment by oxide
2009-05-18 15:44:48

Oh wait, now I know what you’re asking. Why housing this time, and not, say, tulip bulbs? Why did that first speculator decide to buy a house and not a barrel of oil?

Really, ya got me. Process of elimination, maybe? Lots of money was floating around after the roaring 90’s, and there are only so many major investment classes. Boomers weren’t quite old enough to need health care yet. Nobody trusted the stock market because of the tech bubble. Nobody trusted the foreign countries or currency because of 9/11. Gold is already pretty high. Large classes of immigrants needed housing? Inflation hedge? Appearance of safety?

 
Comment by Pullthetrigger?
2009-05-18 17:48:51

It should be pointed out that the 2007 stock market was being supported by the housing bubble, where people took out home equity loans on 100% margin. Therefore, it really is like 1929. Not only were the homes bought on or near 100% margin, but the stocks were, too!

 
 
 
Comment by SFC
2009-05-18 10:53:14

Islamorada 1,000 sqft. condos on the water, still asking $400K +. These were about $100K in 1995. No idea what they’re selling for, or if they are selling.

 
Comment by scdave
2009-05-18 12:17:25

Bad Andy….I heard on bloomberg today that there is a increase in incoming to Florida of roughly 1000 people a day…You know anything of this ??

Comment by palmetto
2009-05-18 12:34:38

scdave, are you being facetious or did you really hear that on bloomberg? Because that 1000 people a day is the same old chestnut they’ve been dragging around in Florida since the 1970s.

I hope people are not moving here looking for a place to hunker down, although it wouldn’t surprise me.

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Comment by scdave
2009-05-18 14:41:01

Yes Palmy I did here it…The discussion revolved around the high tax state of California and that Florida continued to attract people due to no state income tax and its weather, barring hurricanes of course…..

 
Comment by lonestarQT
2009-05-19 07:30:51

I think that’s old info too. They have been saying that for years but the tide was changing. When we left Florida in June 2007, there were lots of stories in the Miami Herald about folks leaving in droves, mainly going to Georgia, Tennesee and the Carolinas. Even U-Haul was reporting that the number of rental trailers being hired outbound where double what was coming in.

 
 
Comment by mikey
2009-05-18 14:09:07

“INCOMMMING!!”…Duck Plamy

;)

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Comment by elladeon
2009-05-18 14:19:36

I read in the WSJ that about 1100 per day were leaving Florida. I may ahve that backwards, so I’ll re-check. But I thought it was leaving.

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Comment by scdave
2009-05-18 14:42:57

Thats what I thought also that why I asked the question to Bad Andy it seemed contradictory to information I have seen here on the board…

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2009-05-19 08:00:59

Well, for the late answer, I don’t believe that to be the case any longer. School enrollments are down in most of South Florida.

 
 
 
 
Comment by deeogee
2009-05-18 13:52:26

There are small crappier condos for sale in Key West now for 99k

Here and there you see canal front houses in the lower keys for the high 200 to 300

my friend just put an offer in for a non-waterfront home in the lower keys for around 200k

There are still many extensive things though, old town remains crazy priced, even though it has dropped a lot

you can see recent sales http://keywestmls.com/sold.php

looks like a condo in marathon just sold for 95k

 
Comment by Muir
2009-05-18 14:03:16

“I am doing some day-dreaming here based on the clips provided above. Does anyone know how housing is in the keys? Are the specu-vestors managing to hang on? Would love any comments”

Here from Sat bits.

__

Florida update

Melbourne Beach on the beach side blocks to the beach mid 150s.
Tequesta, Jensen Beach same around mid 150s.

The “Treasure Coast,” places like Sebastian and Vero Beach, which still have some of that “Old Florida” in them, also with dramatic price drops.

West Coast land values around Leigh Acres, lots that went from the mid $70sK in 05 back to their former values $0

For 09 predictions I stated that Fl would see a 50% decline and some properties would go for back taxes.
Although maybe those predictions sounded far fetched, it was only an appearance; I’d seen it before.

Land was auctioned off by Sarasota County for back taxes as late as 02.
An acre North of Orlando in Lake County went for 2K as late as 01.

By the way, the glitzy South Beach, that was dilapidated boarded up buildings until the early 90s. Ocean Drive hotels were sold for back taxes in the mid 80s. Think “scarface” South Beach scene or “Miami Vice” and remember the boarded hotels on the beach. I grew up here.

Glitzy high rises also crashed mid 80s, same old same old.

So, in 09 my predictions are still on course and in certain places meet already. Imagine what it would have been like without the trillions for the banks.

__
__

I added a little bit today.
Keys: Key largo, no-name Key have gone down a lot.
Not my thing.

Just curious.
Are you sure you want to live there?
There’s fishing, great scuba diving and …oh, yes, there’s fishing, hmm, said that already.
Not a singles scene, no theaters, not much there.
When it was redneck in the 70s and 80s and smuggling was thriving, I could understand living there.
Today?

Comment by snake charmer
2009-05-18 14:56:58

Key West has turned into just another hedonism destination. I will say this: I last drove the entire stretch of US-1 in 2006, and it amused me that even the most thinly-populated island had an adult bookstore/video establishment.

Comment by deeogee
2009-05-18 16:17:53

there is 3 or more adult stores in or near key west

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Comment by Anonymous Coward
2009-05-19 08:13:50

When it was redneck in the 70s and 80s…

Hmm. A redneck/socialist. You are truly an enigma, Muir.

 
 
Comment by KJ
2009-05-18 14:18:27

What kind of ‘hood is that? $40K for a house doesn’t exactly scream “right side of the tracks” to me.

 
 
Comment by az_lender
2009-05-18 10:11:38

“You can tell we’re at the bottom because the buyer arrogance has surpassed the seller arrogance of 2005″ [said a 2005 "investor"].

Sorry lady, that’s not how a bottom is defined. If some other Infestor STILL can’t make money by taking the house off your hands and renting it out, you are asking too high a price.

Comment by Bad Andy
2009-05-18 10:38:10

The bottom may have come and gone if we’re talking about sales volume. If we’re talking price, not even close. Houses in Palm Beach County can now very readily be had for $150,000 for a middle of the road home. Older homes in less desirable areas are listed as low as $40,000. As foreclosures mount more and more homes become available for less and less.

Comment by milkcrate
2009-05-18 12:54:23

You would take your life in your hands in some of those neighborhoods.

 
 
Comment by HARM
2009-05-18 10:56:41

When I can tell a seller they have to come back once a month to feed the squirrels and bake me cupcakes as a condition of sale AND submit to a thorough background check AND submit an photo of their family with 10,000 word essay on why *I* should buy their crappy house, THEN “buyer arrogance” may have surpassed seller arrogance peak-bubble.

Until then, I’m not buying it…

Comment by eastcoaster
2009-05-18 13:01:21

Ditto

Comment by Neil
2009-05-18 13:39:47

ROTFL

So true. When we read about seller essays, its time to buy.

Oh, I’d rather make the seller build a trebuchet and get the squirrels out of the neighborhood.

Got Popcorn?
Neil

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Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-05-18 16:15:54

It’s not the squirrels you want to leave, it’s the raccoons.

Darn Bruce Willis talkin’ jerkwads!

 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2009-05-18 21:58:31

I remember that thread!

 
 
Comment by robiscrazy
2009-05-18 14:56:34

‘You can tell we’re at the bottom because the buyer arrogance has surpassed the seller arrogance of 2005,’

hmmmm….seller arrogance lasted about 7-8 years (approx. 1999 - 2006/2007 here in Sacramento Metro, CA) maybe longer (our prices dipped in 1996). Does that mean buyer arrogance will last as long?

 
 
Comment by 20910
2009-05-18 10:11:58

My favorite quotes:

“You can tell we’re at the bottom because the buyer arrogance has surpassed the seller arrogance of 2005.”

Ahh yes, the arrogance of not wanting to waste money on a depreciating asset.

“. . . the difference is between owning your own home and being doomed to a seeming life sentence of paying rent.”

Yes, being DOOMED to a life-sentence of paying rent. Can’t think of anything worse. Oh wait, yes I can. Working two jobs to pay for mounting debt, marital strife brought on by economic problems, neglected kids b/c parents always at work & fighting, no control over job location or choices because I am a debt slave, panic attacks at night over whether I can make payments, paranoia that one tiny home repair (or a huge one) could push me into BK, fear of property taxes driving me into poverty. I could go on and on, but I’ll spare you all.

Comment by SFC
2009-05-18 11:00:57

My favorite is ‘They did not come off as condo conversions and are probably too expensive to cash flow as hotels.’”

So they’re not nice enough to be condos, and more expensive than a hotel. The target market was people who aren’t that particular, but would still like to waste a lot of money?

 
Comment by HARM
2009-05-18 11:06:32

Yes, “rent servitude” is the worst thing that could happen to a person. Being able to pick up and go with 30-days notice and no 30+ year obligation to turn-over most of your hard-earned money to banksters is an anathema to the crooks running the country. Therefore, they do everything they can to make renting sound like a horrendous social disease and relegate renters to third-class status.

People who rent money and are indentured to their mortgage are “owners” and “smart”. People who live debt-free and have real economic freedom are “paying someone else’s mortgage” and “at the mercy of landlords”. The very term “land-LORD” derives from feudalism, and implies that renters are serfs, serving their “lords”.

“American Dream”
“Ownership society”
“Throwing your money away on rent”
“Paying someone else’s mortgage”

Quite a mind-f**k. And the vast majority of the Uh-merikan people have fallen for it.

Comment by DinOR
2009-05-18 11:23:18

HARM,

Good to see you and good to see you haven’t mellow’d out a bit! Right, and more and more folks my age ( 50+ ) are doing the math and coming away with a big fat zero.

For REIC’sters trying to entice empty nesters that are renting, off of the sidelines, they’re going to have to do better than ‘that’? Even a 15 yr. mortgage would give us little more than a paid off residence by 65. And I’m not saying there isn’t ‘any’ value in that, simply that it no longer holds the promise of having several residences in multiple states/countries fully paid off.

Potential buyers are finally doing what they should have all along and are openly asking themselves where they will be in 10 or 15 years? I think it’s obvious they’ve taken any notion of appreciation out of the picture.

Comment by HARM
2009-05-18 11:46:21

Heya, DinOR –good to see you too.

I’m barely over 40, and the thought of taking on a massive 30-year debt obligation right now –especially considering the current state of the economy– seems insane to me. When I’m ready to buy (when prices are at truly “affordable” levels vs. rents and incomes –not even close yet in most of coastal CA), I will either buy cash or with (at most) a 15-year FRM mortgage + 20% down. I have no intention of becoming a life-long debt serf to make some Wall Street ass-clown rich off my broken back. In fact, for this very reason, I may never “own” (or more accurately, “be owned”) in CA.

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Comment by DinOR
2009-05-18 13:13:01

HARM,

Again, spot on. In fact, this whole exercise of “timing the bottom” and looking for the right entry point has in ways, become academic. At nearly ‘any’ age?

Given there’s strong consensus we’re looking at another 2 to 3 years of falling prices and perhaps a decade of _flat_ prices, what’s the point? Even by 2006 I was thinking, “well maybe an outrageous pool home in Vegas at a ridiculously low price?”

But now that virtually -everything- is in play, you could just as easily rent it once the peak buyer gets shaken out of the picture altogether.

 
Comment by Muggy
2009-05-18 14:25:26

I am 32, and if I stay in Florida, I have roughly sketched out that buying may never make sense. First is the bubble issue, then the fraud issue, then the tax issue.

None are unwinding as quickly as I had hoped.

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-05-18 14:56:33

Muggy,

I’m certainly not here to influence anyone’s decision making process and it’s a case by case situation. There isn’t some hard and fast line you can draw and say; “Don’t buy a home after ___ y.o”.

Thankfully it looks like ‘my’ prayers are being answered! More each day I see postings and developments more in tune w/ what should have been all along. When was the last time any of us heard a 400k home on a gated golf course was a “bargain”?

So after years of “money is no object” we’re finally getting some sensibility injected into the mix. ( Think “park model” ) for the snowbirds and retirees.

 
Comment by cereal
2009-05-18 15:14:05

“the thought of taking on a massive 30-year debt obligation right now –especially considering the current state of the economy– seems insane to me.”

What HARM said. What are the chances you’re gonna be lucky 360 times in a row and make that pmt?

 
Comment by DinOR
2009-05-18 15:37:27

cereal,

A conclusion I came to at the end of the Tech Bubble. Portland, OR was -very- reliant on tech and given we’d only recently weaned ourselves off a timber-based economy, the lesson seemed doubly harsh here.

This is again why I think we needed a Total Re-Write of the way we pay our mortgages even prior to the bubble. Remember, all those tech guys/gals that were laid off in 2000-2004 didn’t have the company of “Hope Now” and their arrears as the center piece of a Presidential Election. ( You was on your own dude )

 
Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-05-18 16:23:29

HARM,

I would be happy renting forever in the bay area, or at least until it really is cheaper to buy than rent. But maybe not even then. I’m still convinced that California and the bay area will drive the computer tech industry out within the next two decades, and owning a house when it becomes obvious will not be a great financial plan.

 
Comment by DennisN
2009-05-18 16:35:07

HARM, so are you still throwing away your money on rent in scenic Marin County? ;)

Buy now! Arnie needs your property tax dollars.

 
 
 
Comment by varelse
2009-05-18 13:58:01

I have always been a renter but I would love to own a house someday. Unless you are renting a house, you are renting an apartment, with all that comes with it….overcrowding, loud neighbors, neighbors who do not know each other and have no interaction with one another, except for fights over parking and/or noise. I suppose you can rent a nice house in a high end neighborhood but the rent would be so high in those circumstances that you might as well buy a house instead and be able to do whatever you want with it. I don’t think there should be a stigma attached to renting, but that does not mean that home ownership is for fools, either. There is nothing contemptable about wanting to own your own home so long as you are willing to limit yourself to what you can afford.

I have rented all these years because the average home cost way more than the average person could afford and I refused to be house poor. I am still waiting, and will wait until the time is right no matter how long that takes, but when the time is right I do plan on owning my own home and in fact I am quite eager to do so. The quality of life will definately be better for my family when we own our own house in a nice neighborhood, instead of renting an apartment in a ‘hood. I’m sick of having the bare minimum the law requires a landlord to provide and no more. I loathe granite countertops, but just as much I loathe the 1980’s leaky stove with the door that won’t open all the way, the ceiling tiles that are stained from the water leaking from my upstairs neighbor’s bathroom(”I’ll spraypaint those for ya!”), the peel and stick kitchen floor that doesn’t really stick and was just thrown on top of the old floor which I don’t think was even cleaned before it was covered, the windows that won’t lock and in some cases won’t open because the landlord bought the very cheapest replacement windows he could find, the hardwood floors that look like they were rubbed down with steel wool before they plopped the stained bargain rug over it…..and on and on.

I’ve seen people on this blog deride people who whine about renting conditions for just being upset that they can’t paint the walls any color they want, but it is much more than that. A landlord is not living in the apartment he is renting out, so he doesn’t care about how anything looks or how well it works. You get the cheapest of everything and the bare minimum that the landlord is required and that’s that. If it means the doors start to fall off of your cabinets 3 years after they are installed, then that’s what it means. If it means you have to turn your stove up to 500 degrees when a recipe calls for a 400 degree oven, and even then your food takes twice as long t6o cook as it should, then that’s what it means. You have been provided a stove and technically it works and that’s all that is required. If that means that when a tile comes loose in your kitchen because of a poor adhesive that the landlord gives you one that matches the floor he put in at another property a few months ago but doesn’t match your floor at all, then that’s what it means.

I look forward to the day when I can have the pride of onwership and put real care into what I do with my own property and in my opinion there is nothing petty about that at all.

Comment by exeter
2009-05-18 16:07:57

hmmm…. given the fact I’ve heard you tear down the average wage earner, it’s pleasing to know you’re one of them.

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Comment by HARM
2009-05-18 16:14:50

Unless you are renting a house, you are renting an apartment, with all that comes with it….overcrowding, loud neighbors, neighbors who do not know each other and have no interaction with one another, except for fights over parking and/or noise. I suppose you can rent a nice house in a high end neighborhood but the rent would be so high in those circumstances that you might as well buy a house instead and be able to do whatever you want with it.

I disagree. Many LLs are cheap, greedy a$$holes, this is true –but not all. And not all affordable rentals are crack/meth projects in the hood –not even in perpetually UNaffordable CA. I am currently renting a very nice 1500 sft 2Bd/3Ba townhouse in a great neighborhood in the Bay area for less than half the monthly costs of “owning” an equivalent unit. I don’t have my choice of the latest, greatest appliances, but… I also didn’t have to replace the busted water main, or busted dishwasher…. or busted oven –my LLs did. As long as I’m willing to paint it back to the original colors, I can paint the walls whatever color I want.

I also see *plenty* of recently upgraded flip houses converted to rentals all over –plenty of pergraniteel as far as the eye can see. Bottom line: unless you want to live right on premium beachfront or Manhattan, you should have no trouble finding a quality house to rent at a reasonable price.

I don’t think there should be a stigma attached to renting, but that does not mean that home ownership is for fools, either. There is nothing contemptable about wanting to own your own home so long as you are willing to limit yourself to what you can afford.

When did I ever say “owning is always for fools”? It just doesn’t make any economic sense *right now* along most of coastal CA. I would like to own some day as well, for many of the same reasons you mentioned, but I’m just not willing to become a bank-indentured servant to do it.

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Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-05-18 16:26:08

Find a better rental. Seriously. I’ve lived at apartment complexes that were pretty nice. I currently rent a small house. If you’re renting a pile of junk apartment to save money, quit whining about it being a pile of junk. If you think your landlord is overcharging you for the pile of junk, move. That’s the joy of being a renter! If it’s terrible, you can leave!

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Comment by 20910
2009-05-18 17:18:00

I agree. I’ve been a renter since I left home and I’m *gasp* raising my kids in a rental.

There are great rentals, and even great LL.

We rent a really cute SFH in a great neighborhood, just a bit cheaper than buying here would be, but frankly I’m not sure I’d WANT to buy here.

It’s great for now, really good elem. schools but not so great for middle and high. So we figure we don’t NEED to move until they are ready for middle school.

Meanwhile, we live in a great n’hood — family-oriented and peaceful and have a terrific LL who responds to problems immediately and who appreciates the TLC we give the house.

He also gave us a 10 percent reduction on this year’s lease when we asked.

I calculate that by renting, we save $$ each year beyond the obvious difference by NOT painting walls, renovating etc. — all of which I admit I would definitely want to do if I owned this place.

 
Comment by 20910
2009-05-18 17:22:56

Hope this isn’t a repeat, it didn’t go thru 1st time.

I agree about finding a better rental. I’ve been a renter since I left home and I’m *gasp* raising my kids in a rental.

There are great rentals, and even great LL.

We rent a really cute SFH in a great neighborhood, just a bit cheaper than buying here would be, but frankly I’m not sure I’d WANT to buy here.

It’s great for now, really good elem. schools but not so great for middle and high. So we figure we don’t NEED to move until they are ready for middle school.

Meanwhile, we live in a great n’hood — family-oriented and peaceful and have a terrific LL who responds to problems immediately and who appreciates the TLC we give the house.

He also gave us a 10 percent reduction on this year’s lease when we asked.

I calculate that by renting, we save $$ each year beyond the obvious difference by NOT painting walls, renovating etc. — all of which I admit I would definitely want to do if I owned this place.

 
Comment by wolfgirl
2009-05-18 23:59:06

After over 20 years I still laugh at my BIL and SIL. They bought so that their daughters could go to the fancy new high school in town. Then the school district redrew lines and the girls attened the same school they would have if they hadn’t moved.

 
 
Comment by Pullthetrigger?
2009-05-18 18:19:30

” I suppose you can rent a nice house in a high end neighborhood but the rent would be so high in those circumstances that you might as well buy a house instead and be able to do whatever you want with it.”

Yes, but rents are coming down. Look for bargains. If you have a good credit score, you can negotiate. That’s what we did. But the main point is not to be able to do what you want with it. I owned a house for eleven years and sold at the top. Now I rent. I’ve just saved 150K! Another point is that you have this notion that if you “own” you will happily ever after, which is not necessarily the case. I f you are a slave to the bank, the neighborhood may change and it could become a nightmare of barking dogs 24/7/365, motorcycles, robberies, or whatever. As for me, I’m happy not to have bought into this particular neighborhood, because it’s turning to the dogs. It seems everyone is now buying dogs to protect them an there is less and less peace every day. So when rents drop in better areas, I will be able to move without the burden of selling a home in a depreciating market.

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Comment by floridabubblerenter
2009-05-20 08:43:36

While I agree with your reasons for renting, there is a time and reason for buying too. Like you, we had found the benefits of renting far outwieghed buying to the point of renting the last three years. We bought our first house in 1991. Thanks to the housing bubble blog and logic, we decided not to buy a house in Florida three years ago. We have been renting since then.

We are thankful for the amount of money we have saved. However, people do need to be aware that the stress of renting, especially with a family in this day and age can be overwhelming. Landlords in good standing when you sign the lease, then not paying the mortgage….

Our last two landlords ended up in foreclosure. We are fighting to get back our $2500 deposit from our last landlord….Money we will never see. These were in great neighborhoods….. And yes, the $2500 is nothing to the $200k+ we are saving on our new home. The stress renting has put my family through isn’t worth waiting for our new home to go down another $100k or renting another house. My husband and I would love to, but we can’t keep moving every year. My kids need stability. Now we don’t have to worry every time we hang a picture, drop a can on the wood floors or spill juice on the carpet……. So yes, renting has been profitable for us, but stressful.

 
 
Comment by are they crazy
2009-05-18 19:47:46

I’ve never had those problems with rentals because if the landlord didn’t pay for decoration or minor repairs, I did. It was my home and I wanted it functional and looking good. I’ve always made small improvements to rentals - fixed a jacuzzi at one place. Cost $400, but we had a great jacuzzi for 2 years we lived there. I’ve painted, changed light fixtures and done lots of gardening. Never ran into a landlord that didn’t appreciate it.

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Comment by CA renter
2009-05-19 00:58:20

Ditto. Our LL loves us because we keep improving his house.

We paid the majority of the cost for a new shower (the old, fiberglass one cracked for the umpteenth time, and we just wanted nice tile). We got to pick out the tiles and grout color, shower doors, etc. No problem.

If you want to make improvements, ask your LL. I’m sure he/she will be happy to oblige.

 
 
Comment by Anon In DC
2009-05-18 21:40:17

Hi. I’ve only rented two apartments in my life. One in San Fran and one in Washington. Both studios. Both in nice very nice neighborhoods. Both with even nicer landlord who had been in the business years and knew what they were doing. Of course if you a good tennant like me :) They want to keep you happy.

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Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2009-05-18 14:06:38

30 what? Every property management place around my area require 1 year lease for the most part. A few cracked and started to do 6 month with the bubble, but charge a premium for it.

Comment by whyoung
2009-05-18 14:13:16

it’s easier to break a lease than sell an underwater house

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Comment by KJ
2009-05-18 14:26:30

Landlords are tougher than lenders when it comes to collecting. Especially if it’s a mom and pop landlord. Walk out on a $500K mortgage from Wachovia….meh you’re 1 of 100,000. Walk out from your $1500 a month rent obligation from Joe Shmoe, he’ll hunt you down and get his money. And try renting another apartment/house after walking out on a lease. Not happening any time soon. But you can walk right up to the FHA and get a mortgage the day you mail the keys back to Wachovia.

 
Comment by LehighValleyGuy
2009-05-18 15:22:44

Yet another reason why we need to get rid of banks altogether. If they’re that cavalier about enforcing their rights, they’re making fools out of those who pay conscientiously. But why should the bank exec’s care? It’s not their money. Banks are nothing but a gross distortion of the common-sense concepts of contract law.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-18 16:09:03

“Yet another reason why we need to get rid of banks altogether.”

I don’t see why cleaning up the captured regulators and reestablishing a rule of law and market discipline could not suffice to restore the banking industry to health. Too-big-to-fail has to go away first, though…

 
 
Comment by 20910
2009-05-18 17:19:50

In many places, DC and MD for example, a lease automatically converts to 30 days at the end of the original period.

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Comment by JLR
2009-05-19 04:38:07

True … unless you sign another lease. That happened to us - we were never asked to sign a new lease (in MD), so we went month to month. Sent a quick note to the apt complex just to verify - no response. Almost a year later, they claimed my “new lease” ended on 5/15. Um, nope, I’m month-to-month - and by the way, here’s my 30 days notice I’m leaving. Didn’t hear a peep out of them …

 
Comment by KyleO
2009-05-19 11:18:16

That’d be nice, but not where I am in Wisconsin. Even after 1 year in my current apartment, the management company won’t accept anything less than another year. Same with the last place .

I can maybe understand if they can fill it, but there are vacancies here and turning over an apartment

 
 
 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2009-05-18 15:01:27

There was a great piece from a New York Times economics writer last week, entitled “My Personal Credit Crisis,” that touched on nearly all of those points. He admitted that he fell victim to the bubble and should have known better.

http://tinyurl.com/pcukyo

Comment by SaladSD
2009-05-18 21:59:14

What a maroon, as Bugs would say. Nice set up, though, for his forthcoming book.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-18 16:05:14

“You can tell we’re at the bottom because the buyer arrogance has surpassed the seller arrogance of 2005.”

I can tell we are not at the bottom because few if any of the real estate specuvestors and flippers formerly known as arrogant can be heard yet decrying the fact that real estate is the worst possible investment.

Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-18 16:06:15

Then there is also the question about whether a couple of months worth of buyer arrogance balances thirty or more years worth of seller arrogance…

Comment by CA renter
2009-05-19 01:01:21

So many specuvestors…they are still eyeball-deep in the market right now, buying hand-over-fist.

Isn’t this one of the “warning signs” that David Lereah was musing about a few years ago, when “second homes/investment properties” accounted for about 43% of the sales.

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Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-05-18 10:23:42

“‘Before, sometimes people were upside down on their mortgage before they even bought the house.’”

Is this person seriously this dumb?

Comment by HARM
2009-05-18 11:36:32

Do you always ask questions to which you already know the answers? ;-)

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2009-05-18 16:09:50

Yes, because I really am that dumb. :D

 
 
 
Comment by Carl Morris
2009-05-18 10:50:50

So if buyer arrogance has just now surpassed seller arrogance, that means maybe we’re halfway to how bad it will get before buyer arrogance peaks, right? Sine waves don’t return to zero and then instantly go from max slope to zero slope…

 
Comment by Mo Money
2009-05-18 10:53:30

‘It’s tough having your own place and your own cars and thinking your job is secure and you go from that to nothing,’ Bodigon said. ‘Never say never.’”

Bailed out bankers “Never for us”

Comment by milkcrate
2009-05-18 12:59:56

To which I might add:
Life gives everyone a face plant in the sand sooner or later. Gives our faces personality.
The banks that are too big to fail?
Castles in the sand.
(Cue loud rock song from Dinor’s collection.)

 
 
Comment by SFC
2009-05-18 11:09:16

“Builders, who failed to diagnose the bubble before it was too late, vastly overestimated demand for their product among buyers who intended to live in the properties”

And the market is up this afternoon partly because builder sentiment is up two points? The same builders who can’t find their a** with both hands?

Comment by arizonadude
2009-05-18 11:21:18

They actually sold a couple houses probably.I would hate to be a new car salesman or hew home salesman right now.I drove by the chevy dealership yesterday and about 10 dudes sitting around looking for a buyer.

Comment by mikey
2009-05-18 14:32:54

Maybe tomorrow you’ll drive by the same place, see the same 10 dudes and the Chevy place will be looking for a buyer.
;)

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-05-18 14:46:25

True story: Car dealership near my parents just up and disappeared a few years ago. According to Mom, one day the lot was chock-full of SUVs. Then they were all gone.

Dealership location is now an abandoned eyesore.

Comment by snake charmer
2009-05-18 15:05:23

There are a couple of those if you drive up North Dale Mabry Highway in Tampa. Without cars the premises are even uglier. In his critique of modernist architecture, Kunstler once called the buildings on an auto dealership property “just a place to sign contracts and get out of the rain.”

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2009-05-18 15:28:03

The aforementioned Ghost Dealership is in eastern Pennsylvania, ’bout 25 miles west of Philadelphia. It’s on PA Route 3 just west of PA route 352.

 
 
Comment by mikey
2009-05-18 19:08:19

I know of at least 5 big dealerships that just up and disappeared from the Milwaukee area and suburbs in the last couple of years. Two were Buick and two handled Chrysler/Jeep/Dodge. One of my little neigbor lady’s was furious. She needed some warranty work and sat at the door beeping her horn for 5 minutes until some guy across the street told her they had just…”Vanished”.

Actually, the one of the Jeep joints relocated to a far western suburb out in the middle of nowhere and spent a fortune building a ultra-modern Mall of America type monsterplace. Fancy coffee bar, yuppie lounge, Wifi, TV’s, kids playground, the whole catastrophe. A huge glass panoramic view of the shop area with their highly skilled professional “technicans”, cleaner than doctors and charging just as much.

If they manage to keep the clowns, balloons and rent a tiny Ferris Wheel, they just might make it as a small-time “Lost America” dealership theme park.
:)

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Comment by az_lender
2009-05-18 13:54:51

The market is up because all of us need a nice opportunity to initiate some short sales. I have no shorts, but I’m sure thinking about it.

 
 
Comment by Jim A.
2009-05-18 11:31:28

It’s the golden rule, he who brings the gold, gets to make the rules.

Comment by milkcrate
2009-05-18 13:01:13

He who covets the gold misses a good afternoon for kite flying.

Comment by varelse
2009-05-18 14:00:56

What if the guy with the gold doesn’t allow kites? Or even hammocks for that matter? He is making the rules isn’t he?

 
 
 
Comment by Natalie
2009-05-18 11:32:47

“She said she and her husband purchased the lot in 2005 as an investment, but when it didn’t sell they decided to build a house there.”

Summary: No one was that interested in living here, so, rather than cut our losses, we decided it was the perfect spot to build a home. Cash sucks, and we try to give it away whenever we can.

Comment by robiscrazy
2009-05-18 15:04:38

I was thinking it, but you said it better than I every could have. Thanks for the laugh.

 
Comment by snake charmer
2009-05-18 15:09:34

I’ve seen some building on empty lots lately. But tragically it’s the same old s__t. Four thousand square foot houses, in neighborhoods of 3/2 dwellings, so that unexceptional people can live like the royalty they are in their minds, at least until they foreclose that is.

 
 
Comment by hip in zilker
2009-05-18 11:42:44

downtown Austin condo auction yesterday, all 19 units sold in 90 minutes at average 29% off previous asking price :

http://www.austintowers.net/Austin_Downtown/files/brazos_place_auction_results.html

OTOH, the “auction” of Star Riverside (on the northeast corner of Riverside and IH-35) units appears to be a scam :

http://www.austintowers.net/Austin_Downtown/files/star_riverside_auction_ibidcondo.html

 
Comment by hip in zilker
2009-05-18 12:23:07

I posted earlier about a downtown condo auction in Austin and I assume it will show up eventually, includes links. Here is a link to an American Statesman article about the auction.

http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/realestate/entries/2009/05/18/brazos_place_condominiums_sell.html

Comment by palmetto
2009-05-18 12:51:35

hip, in answer to your question in bits bucket about Vanity Fair, I do buy at the grocery store. When my mom was still alive, she used to renew my subscription every year on my birthday, the good woman. Then I got wind they were cheating her and sending subscription renewal notices like six months early. Anyway, I dropped the subscription after she died and just pick it up at the newstand. Yep, a subscription would be cheaper, but what the heck.

Not fond of the ads myself, kinda creepy.

Comment by Muir
2009-05-18 13:53:15

“Not fond of the ads myself, kinda creepy.”

Do you mean the androgynous, skinny as if from a long bout with heroin addiction, yet obviously of a privileged class you could never aspire to models?

The ones with eyes staring into the black void that is the death of their souls?

Just curious if those were the ones?

Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2009-05-18 14:53:42

You seem to know those ads quite well :)

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Comment by palmetto
2009-05-18 15:05:04

LOL, Muir and hip have it down. That’s what a lot of those ads are like. Fellini Satyricon. But what do you expect? There are some designers, art directors and photogs in NY and other pseudo-sophisticated places who don’t much care for pretty women and do their best to make them look like s**t.

 
Comment by ecofeco
2009-05-18 15:50:08

Fellini?! Oh my! I’m impressed!

And yeah, most professional (and I use the term very loosely) fashionistas need to get a life and a real sense of aesthetics.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Muir
2009-05-18 13:13:14

Median Sales Price FL

December 2008 $155,500
January 2009 $139,500
February 2009 $141,900
March 2009 $141,300

Bottom.

I’ve lived here for 40+ years, seen 2-3 busts.
Called bottom 2 weeks ago.

__

(strangely, Miami-Dade County is an exception, for lengthy reasons)

Comment by Muir
2009-05-18 13:32:22

Should qualify that condos will continue to plummet in nominal and inflation adjusted terms for years.
Also Case-Schiller etc will be lower.

But a 3/2 2 blocks from the beach for 150K lower?
Nope.

More 3/2s 2 blocks from the beach?
Maybe, for some months more.

2/2 with guest house in the Gables for less than 390K?
Unlikely.

Jensen Beach less than 110K for a nice view of the Intracoastal from a 60 foot dune (for real, no kiddin) or Tequesta/Hobe Sound less than 150K?
Nope.

Comment by az_lender
2009-05-18 15:08:03

Muir, I have to admit the Jensen Beach price you post sounds good. I used to live in JB long ago, taught at the FIT campus (look on that pier in the Indian River park for a tiny bronze plaque “former FIT faculty” only one female name). Still I have to ask, what about all the Alt-A’s, option ARMs, and like that?

Comment by Muir
2009-05-18 17:15:23

“Still I have to ask, what about all the Alt-A’s, option ARMs, and like that?”

Good question!
Combo has asked it.

1. Many homeowners are not paying now.
2. There is restructuring of loans (interest and principle)
I know 2 people in my building that have done so.

3. Who knows what the FED will come up with next week

(but whatever it is, it will favor inflation)

4. If I am wrong, then there is no bottom (most of the houses I look at were bought in 02-05) and therefore the least of anyone’s worries will be house prices.
Then true massive deflation would rule the day.

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Comment by Muir
2009-05-18 17:58:47

p.s. JB is still beautiful.

PSL is _____ (fill in the blank with own swear word)

 
 
 
 
Comment by Muggy
2009-05-18 14:29:11

“Bottom.

I’ve lived here for 40+ years, seen 2-3 busts.
Called bottom 2 weeks ago.”

Thanks, even if you’re wrong, I appreciate you posting.

 
Comment by KJ
2009-05-18 14:31:50

Muir,

Where in FL are you? I’m considering buying in the Tampa area. A couple of foreclosures I had my eye on both sold before I even had a chance to go down and take a look. Not sure if this is some spring fever or the real deal.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-18 15:21:24

“I’ve lived here for 40+ years, seen 2-3 busts.”

This is your father’s bust.

Comment by az_lender
2009-05-18 15:44:22

ha ha ha ha

 
 
Comment by Linda
2009-05-19 16:02:34

What do you think is up with dade county…i don’t think it has nearly it bottom because of all the overbuilding…what do you think?? My in-laws live in a very modest section of Little Havana and for awhile the house prices were over 500k everywhere….some much more…no commute to downtown!! that part is true but the houses were very small.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2009-05-18 16:02:38

The problem with the housing market is not that a mania fueled an unsustainable runup in prices with a record glut of vacant housing and number of foreclosures to follow. The problem is that home prices dropped, plain and simple. It follows that the apparent equally simple remedy is to make real estate prices start going up again.

The insipid thinking which dominates MSM commentary threatens to lend support for a failure to fix the problems that led us into this debacle.

Stocks jump on renewed optimism on housing, banks
By SARA LEPRO and MADLEN READ – 1 hour ago

NEW YORK (AP) — Reassuring news about housing and banking on Monday convinced investors to return to the stock market.

The Dow Jones industrial average shot up 235 points, making up three-quarters of last week’s losses. All the major indexes rose about 3 percent.

A better-than-expected profit report from Lowe’s Cos., an uptick in homebuilder sentiment and positive comments from analysts about U.S. banks revived investors’ confidence in an economic rebound. Stocks fell sharply last week on worries that a recovery might be further off than hoped, interrupting a rally that has left the Standard & Poor’s 500 index up 34.5 percent since March 9.

Steep drops in home values have been at the heart of the economy’s troubles, slicing into consumers’ wealth and saddling banks with huge losses. Analysts believe that stability in the housing and banking industries are imperative for the economy to rebound.

“There’s a realization that things are going to get better,” said James Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. “That’s the main theme of the market over the last couple of weeks.”

Comment by CA renter
2009-05-19 01:09:46

Yep. No mention of the rising prices (remember the “affordable housing crisis”?) and totally unrealistic mortgage debt people were taking on. That couldn’t possibly have been the problem. No way. :(

 
 
Comment by agentsaredemons
2009-05-18 17:13:36

Looked at a home today…built in 1875. Asked the agent how close the home was to the road. Agent said she was not good with distance estimates. Arrived at the home to find the front porch was 10 to 15 feet from the paved road.

Question: Why must agents obfuscate, omit, and lie at every turn?

Truly I am not going to show restraint with realtards anymore.

Comment by exeter
2009-05-18 18:06:28

In other words a realturd lied? WTF did you expect? Would you have believed “IT” if “IT” said “we’re at the bottom” just one more time?

Realturds are friggin’ liars. Get over it.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2009-05-18 19:35:41

Why are you complaining???? 15 feet is plenty of room for others to safely pass your horse and buggy

—————-
the front porch was 10 to 15 feet from the paved road.

 
Comment by 2banana
2009-05-18 21:49:32

I looked at an nice older home that said it was on a “quiet and charming country road” which was the whole reason I wanted to see it. The seller’s agents insisted that they must be there and meet us.

When I got there it was next to not one, but two state highways. Yelling over a passing 18 wheeler, I told the the ass-clown “quiet country roads” don’t have double yellow lines in the middle of them. Then I said whoever wrote the house decription was a moron (it turns out he wrote it!). I said thank you for wasting my time and I am done.

It turns out that house was marketed to NYC type people whom I assume he thought would have thought state highways were charming and quiet country homes.

After that, I found this blog and have now look at real estate agents as the enemy who want to take as much money from me as possible and are not to be trusted ever.

Comment by Doghouse Riley
2009-05-19 03:54:17

Let’s not forget the art of real estate photography. Its expert practitioners have no need of the likes of Photoshop - they can frame a house so all you see is the nice front porch and view of the hills behind, while neglecting to show you that the houses left and right are so close that you can smell what your neighbor is having for lunch, even if it’s a cream cheese sandwich.

Comment by KJ
2009-05-19 04:22:23

Yeah but to be fair, that’s the case with any product. Pics of a used car show the nice leather interior. They don’t show the 4 inch scratch on the fender. And I have yet to see the section on microsoft.com that tells you about how your computer will freeze up 20 mins before the biggest presentation of your career.

It’s a little naive to expect the truth in any business transaction don’t you think?

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Comment by B. Durbin
2009-05-19 22:16:27

Funny— my complaint with real estate photography is how BAD it is. 2-3 views of the same face of the house, off-kilter photographs of the bathroom with the toilet lid up, shots that don’t show me anything really… yeah, there’s some bad stuff out there.

Of course, the descriptions usually include “dual pain windows”, so we know we’re dealing with quality anyway.

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Comment by SDGreg
2009-05-19 03:00:04

“Agent said she was not good with distance estimates. Arrived at the home to find the front porch was 10 to 15 feet from the paved road.”

As your fist impacts her face and she asks why you did that, “I was just stretching out my arm and thought you were three feet away. I’m not good with distance estimates.”

Comment by exeter
2009-05-19 11:54:40

lmao….. schweeet SDgreg!!!!!

 
 
 
Comment by Out at the Peak
2009-05-19 13:11:15

‘They’ve come down a little bit, but now I’m hearing they’re possibly going up again because of the investors,’ Pearce said. ‘I’m happy because it’s going to keep my value up.’

Once those “investors” realize that they didn’t get in on the bottom, do you think they’ll keep paying the mortgage in order to keep your value up?

Sure prices can go up for a few months, only to be dragged back down by the new foreclosure wave.

 
Comment by ex-Wreck
2009-05-19 22:03:09

‘The only answer is to wait for tomorrow,’ Starr said. ‘But when tomorrow will come, I don’t know.’

Tomorrow, tomorrow
I love ya, tomorrow
You’re always a day awaaaaaay.

 
Comment by jeff saturday
2009-05-25 11:51:26

18

 
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