Bits Bucket For May 26, 2009
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Mass. housing sales were “disappointing” in April
Single-family home sales in Massachusetts fell to their lowest level for the month of April since 1990, and the median price for homes sold in April dropped 13.1 percent to $265,000 from $305,000 last year, according to a report issued today by the Warren Group.
“Median home prices have been falling by double-digit percentages for eight consecutive months, but April delivered the smallest price decline in that eight-month period,” said the Warren Group, a Boston firm that tracks real estate data and publishes Banker & Tradesman.
On a volume basis, the number of homes sold last month retreated 14.5 percent to 2,731 from 3,196 in April 2008, the firm said.
“April turned out to be a disappointing month for sales volume of both single-family homes and condos,” Timothy M. Warren, Jr., chief executive of the Warren Group, said in a statement. “We were expecting that the combination of low mortgage interest rates, a first-time homebuyer tax credit, and low home prices would stimulate sales. Consumers are dealing with job losses, pay cuts, and heavy debt, and it appears that it is affecting their home-buying decisions.”
April condo sales in Massachusetts dropped 31.1 percent to 1,178 from 1,711 last April, the slowest condo sales pace for the month of April since 1995, said the Warren Group, adding that the median price for condos sold in April dropped 11.1 percent to $239,900 from $270,000 a year ago.
The Massachusetts Association of Realtors also issued its monthly report today on local housing activity. The association uses a different method to track sales than the Warren Group does.
The volume of single-family homes sold last month fell 13 percent to 2,448, but that volume was up 9.6 percent from March 2009, the association said.
The median price of a detached single-family home in April was $275,000, down 12.5 percent from April 2008 and up 7.8 percent from March 2009, the association said.
The number of Massachusetts condos sold in April was 916, down 28.8 percent from 1,286 in April 2008 and up 4.4 percent from March 2009, the association said.
The median condo selling price was $236,000 in April, down 14.2 percent from a year ago and up 5.1 percent from March 2009, the association said.
“On a year-over-year basis, median prices are still feeling the weight of the market correction that has been taking place over the past 20 months,” Gary Rogers, president of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors, said in a statement. “However, it is encouraging to see month-to-month median prices going up, as it is reflective of the increased activity Realtors are seeing today as buyers are looking to get back into the market.”
(By Chris Reidy, Globe staff)
I hope y’all noticed that the president of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors admits that the past 20 months has been a “market correction”; which is in my opinion a de facto admission that the MAR knew that the previous market was definitely not normal.
Also, just in case my comment doesn’t show up at Boston.com; the last time the Case-Shiller numbers showed a month-to-month decline in Boston metro area home prices for the March-April period was 1995.
“Also, just in case my comment doesn’t show up at Boston.com; the last time the Case-Shiller numbers showed a month-to-month decline in Boston metro area home prices for the March-April period was 1995.”
Chile,
Interesting point in that transaction volume began its in the northeast began sometime in 1990. 5 years later, prices began to decline.
jeez I’ll try that again.
Interesting point in that transaction volume began its decline in the northeast sometime in 1990. Some 5 years later, prices began to decline.
Actually, prices were already in a decline in 1990, it was just that the last month-to-month March-Arpil decline recorded in Boston was 1995. A number of years prior also saw MTM declines for March to April. It is just since then - 2006, 2007, and 2008 included, March-April always saw a MTM price increase.
These prices, even with them having fallen, are just amazing to me. My first husband & I paid $ 34,900 for our 950 sq. foot ranch on a basement, next to a very distinguished ( ! ) gravel pit in E. Brookfield MA in 1978. It’s probably worth ( ? ) half a million by today’s standards. LOL.
Just a thought on the REIC and the US auto propaganda front. As I read through the online news of woe, crying and impending economic disaster, I notice the one common underlining theme of most house sellers, 6%er’s, middlemen and manufactures within the US. They are all very UNHAPPY with us!
Unhappy you say …unhappy with what ?
What could we as savers, renters, hard working prudent people have DONE to upset and make our Captains of Capital and the free Enterprise “Ownership Society System” so unhappy with us ?
The answer is NOTHING and it goes back to their definitions of stable markets. Take the “happy days” boom of RE as an example;
“A willing buyer and a willing seller with NO UNDUE pressures on either”
Ahh yes.. those heady days of 300-400% appreciation on over-priced POS, multiple bids, fat commissions around and all the way dancing to the banks and hedge funds.
Worked for them THEN, they had no complaints then about their fat happy “stable and fair” RE market definition. Their system worked wonderfully for them…until it COLLAPSED upon itself and them!
Now the RE worm has turned and the their “willing buyer”, should such an idiot still exist, is the American Terrorist attempting to kill, destroy and ravage their happie”wonderful Life”
sorry..(was munching and my rough draft daily rant got away form me before I was ready)
mikey,
No I’m feelin’ it. In fact, where most things are concerned, I’m *not, but I think you’re nailing it.
Once… -again- I’m walking the dog w/ Mrs. D and our defunct local REIC-Bank “operator” is FUMING at the mere sight of me! ( Storms off in a huff ) after doing some ‘very’ important curb appeal maint. ( Profitable flip no doubt? )
Dude, you and your band of thieves utterly and thoroughly corn-h@led this town for at least a generation to come and you’re… p!ssed at, ‘me’!?
See mikey, “at least they… were doing something ‘positive’ for the town?” Not responsible lumps on logs like me and you?
Once… -again- I’m walking the dog w/ Mrs. D and our defunct local REIC-Bank “operator” is FUMING at the mere sight of me! ( Storms off in a huff )
I still think this should please you mightily. It would me.
Oh, I just had a good idea! You oughtta get 2 dozen nice full-size cardboard color cutouts of yourself printed up. That’s step one. Step two is, you sneak up at night and put one on his front porch, so he sees it first thing in the morning when he goes to get the paper. See, after he goes ape-p00p and destroys it and rants and raves around until his wife tells him to shut up, and he finally calms down, and then he goes to town and that’s when he discovers what you’ve done, which is Step 3. What you did is, you took the rest of your full-sized images of you and posed them all around town, in store windows, at the carwash (out of the way of the water, so your cardboard stand doesn’t get soggy), standing there looking at daisies at the city hall, a couple of you at the banks that didn’t go bust, just here and there, you know, big paper dolls of you everywhere, smiling cheerily and infuriatingly.
Think how crazy he’d go! Maybe his wicked little noggin would simply a’splode, providing a merry and satisfying ending, huh huh!
Principle at work here of ” everyone gets pissed off when their own ox get gored ” ( Old Testament paraphrase ). You didn’t do anything wrong, Mr. DinOr, except that you didn’t rescue his ox from being gored.
Well DinOR,
I guess that they can blame it all on us.
We should have bought a mini-MaMansion, a Maserati and loaded our CC’s up and shot for the moon and this REIC/FIRE meltdown JUST might not have happened.
I was probably the ONE that broke the camel’s back. I knew deep down that I should have bought a 54 inch HDTV and a $100 a month cable package instead of using that cheap gov’t converter box coupon on my old TV.(which works like a charm)
It’s nicer to think of myself more like a nail in a board on the road to hell, when they were hitting the gate at 98, rather than a bump on a log though…more productive.
silverback1011,
Thanks for the biblical ref. You ‘do’ realize though the -last- time “I” was in a church I got married, right?
Yeah, it’s just incredible. This @ssclown never missed an opportunity to slight me. We were at the HOA Xmas party and it was on a Sunday so… I don’t drink (typically) when I have to work the next day. Hey… it works for me.
So rather than let me and my choice of Martinelli’s slide, he has to make a comment about it. The wives definitely “got it” but remember, this was a time when you couldn’t ’stop’ a REIC’ster from laughing at their own jokes?
Then there was the time his specuvestment ( my rental, my FORMER rental’s ) gutter collapsed and he came right over to assess the situation. I said it was no big deal and only God can make something perfect. So he snaps “Is that your ‘professional’ opinion!?” I turned without saying a word and walked back inside.
As of today the entire run of gutters is woefully sagging and ready to fall off w/ so much as a light breeze. Seems a handful of illegal “roofers” ( that had to borrow a ladder and share ‘the’ hammer ) didn’t… quite do an adequate job? And yes that’s my ‘professional’ o-p-i-n-i-o-n. Jerk-off.
“…except that you didn’t rescue his ox from being gored.”
Nor could you rescue his ox. At best you coulda got gored too, but you’re not ‘patriotic’ enough to take a useless goring.
Al,
Can’t speak for others but in ‘my’ mind right after murder, adultery etc. comes making people that are t-r-y-i-n-g to keep their OWN vices in check a public-freaking-spectacle!
Nothing says “class” quite like making a scene out of someone respectfully declining an offer of dessert, a drink or bong hit? But again, w/ REIC’stas their jokes are about as funny their distancing themselves from their own actions.
I KNOW this scumbag is plotting 24/7. He -never- comes out on his own back deck at ALL any more and would like nothing better than to “hook me up”. So like a true REIC’sta homie, he is checking wid’ all ‘his’ homeboyz see can he hook my azz UP!
Nice try scumbag. I don’t OWE anyone here in town a THING! There IS no “sweetheart backdoor deal” to unravel! There IS no (1) client you could dissuade that would be my undoing! You, you freaking scumbag. That’s how YOU REIC’stas do bid’ness. You freaking scumbag.
Wow, he sounds like some kind of sociopath. Probably is. I’m sorry you live so close to this a-hole. They are truly desperate. They are truly evil. They would take your last dollar and laugh about it for years. They have no conscience or morals, but will complain forever when their own children are ripping them off, never thinking that the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.
Keep letting him get gored. It’s a good thing.
Don’t just settle for letting him get gored. Get yourself a smallish horned or antlered animal and train it. Take it along to events where you might see the guy and give the word of command (suggestion: underwater) and watch the fun. Don’t forget to point and laugh.
“Don’t forget to point and laugh” LOL!
Oh I won’t. I suppose the maddening part ( and thanks for all your kind posts guys ) is that REIC’stas -still- feel like they are smarter than everyone else!
I mean, why shouldn’t they? They pulled one over on pretty much the whole world. And they’ve had gotten away with it too if it wasn’t for those meddling kids and their dog!
The thing that keeps me going is I don’t have to be careful where I show my face! I can go out on my back deck ( facing his ) and not have a worry in the world.
Your dog could probably perform some more “curb appeal maintenance” on this guy’s lawn.
Thanks for your “diamond in the rough” draft, Mikey
I like my rants unvarnished…
Thanks PB,
It’s for sure that I’m not one of the financially or economically gifted heavy hitters or thinkers in here but we all get a little frustrated with the insanity of this bubble. I appreciate your comment and understanding.
You’re right, listen to the little piggies squeal! Watch as they watch them wrap themselves in the flag, mom, and apple pie.
Their professions add nothing to the value of the products they sell. Has anyone’s car developed 10 extra HP because of the salesperson? Has anyone’s house sprouted an extra bedroom because of the UHS?
Kick the debt pushers to the curb, America!
i can comfirm the desperation. I went to test drive cars on Saturday. I was very upfront: I’m not looking to buy this month, I’m just making a short list of cars to keep in mind. I made sure to keep the test drive short; didn’t waste time, etc.
Dealer 1: test drove the “last” 2009 on the lot. Wasn’t interested. Since then, dealer has left three messages on my voice mail asking me what it would take to get me to drive the car home. I haven’t called back yet.
Dealer 2: Hasn’t called yet, but had me sit down in the dealership while he talks to his manager. This after he asked me “what will it take to get you to drive the car home today” and I responded, “I’m not”. He came back looking dejected, “You SURE there is nothing we can do today?”. Me: “nope”.
I test drove a car yesterday myself and the smell of desperation was pungent. Knocked the price down pretty well, but I told them it wasn’t about price at that point, I was just looking and honestly wanted to only spend a few minutes and then go stand up paddle boarding and then surf. Guy calls me this morning wanting to set up an appointment tomorrow. Told him work week is tough and I don’t have the time, maybe the weekend. Makes me think I should knock the price down further. Normally these chumps won’t give me the time of day, especially since I buy used.
My house needs a new roof and a new ac unit. Good thing the housing market has bottomed and now I can see some more return as I pour money into my investment.
There is an energy tax credit of $1,500 you can take advantage of. It only applies to specific types of roofs & ac units so you might do some research.
You mean the specific types that are now $1500 more expensive than they used to be?
That’s a great point, Polly. And even ignoring products with tax credits, more efficient always means more money. Oftentimes, after running the numbers, it makes much more sense to buy the less efficient unit.
Here’s a tip: If you can find reputable, established contractors, you can get some great deals on the work. And they will love you no end if you’re paying 100% without any sort of financing. Not even a credit card.
Matter of fact, I paid upfront for my last two replacement windows and got a discount for doing so.
It is hard to tell. Its easier to find out whats going on at Area 51 than to find a retail price list for AC units(much less a wholesale price list). It is one of the few remaining items you cannot buy over the internet. The change over in freon further complicates the issue.
From my research, all SEER 17+ AC units qualify ( and those were already pretty pricey) and metal roofs.
heres a goodlooking metal roof http://www.decra.com/
The Housing Hurricane Will Howl Again
By MIKE MORGAN
This is only a lull in the housing hurricane.
WE’RE OUT OF THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE, but here comes the back half of the storm. A lot of people think that we’ve seen the worst of the housing crisis. They’re talking about green shoots and glimmers of hope, when they should be back in the storm shelter, preparing for a flood of inventory that will overwhelm the markets and produce another round of falling prices
For the past few months there has been a semi-moratorium on foreclosures. Most institutions with delinquent mortgages didn’t foreclose. The signs that blanket many neighborhoods have been posted by a fraction of the lenders. Now the rest of the banks are rushing to get their properties on the market.
Christoph Hitz for Barron’s
We’re still supporting misguided programs that only add to inventory woes. They encourage builders to put up more homes and penalize anyone else trying to sell a home.
As a Florida real-estate broker who works with bank asset managers to dispose of foreclosed properties, I get a good view of this market. From December 2008 through mid-March 2009, the number of asset managers calling to discuss REO (real estate owned) properties on their client banks’ books dropped by more than 80% from the level at which it previously had been running. In the past two months, however, asset managers have been busy, with most interested in how many properties we could handle at once.
Law firms for banks are once again lining up to file foreclosures and to process evictions. The asset managers we work with have warned us to expect a flood of properties, beginning in early June. This will hit as the number of potential buyers continues to dwindle. Builders, traditional sellers and investors who entered too early are already loaded with REO properties.
ALL OF THE OBAMA administration’s attempts to revive, resuscitate and shock the housing markets into recovery have failed. Potential buyers can’t purchase homes when they are losing their jobs, regardless of how attractive the credits and mortgages are. The price of homes will continue to fall until the properties are affordable for potential buyers.
If an investor could purchase a home and rent it out for close to breakeven, we might be getting close to a bottom. But we are nowhere close to that level in most critical markets. Until it is approached, prices will continue to fall. In fact, the negative cash flow now evident, along with the flood of properties coming into the inventory pool, warn of lower prices.
There’s no light at the end of the tunnel yet. We’re still supporting builders through misguided programs that are only adding to the inventory woes. California decided to offer a $10,000 credit to buyers of new homes, on top of the $8,000 federal credit. But California made the $10,000 available only for new homes purchased directly from builders. That shows the power of the builders’ lobby, but it only adds to California’s housing-industry problem. It encourages builders to construct dwellings we don’t need, and it penalizes anyone else trying to sell a home.
Housing inventory soon will flood a market in which more than 500,000 homes are being built each year, even though the annual sales pace for new homes is closer to 300,000. We must also deal with a system clogged with impossible short sales, a surge of second and vacation homes being dumped, and third-wave flippers realizing that they entered the market too soon.
FOR THE BANKS, the back half of the hurricane will destroy balance sheets, unless the Obama administration comes up with another plan to mythically mark these assets on the books. Or we might see some chimerical plan to write down mortgage payments, or move toxic mortgages into a dark pool, or create some new illusion that glosses over the problem.
Our experience with banks’ selling REOs is they realize about 50%-75% of what they initially think they will get. Moreover, their expenses to bring these properties to market and manage them are growing. Court systems bogged down with foreclosures are raising fees so that they can hire additional staff. More and more homeowners being evicted are stripping homes to the bone, removing appliances, fixtures, carpet, cabinets, air handlers, motorized garage-door openers and anything else that they can carry off or sell.
Unemployment presents a two-pronged problem. If homeowners lose their jobs, they have difficulty meeting mortgage payments. And a high jobless rate forces more people to put their homes on the market.
Excellent post.
“If homeowners lose their jobs, they have difficulty meeting mortgage payments.”
And what of the many that had difficulties making their payments even when they were still employed?
Or those who won’t be able to come up with needed down payments for another 5-10 years?
Even though the guy’s assessment is fairly honest, I’m -still- calling him a J.O b/c, well firstly b/c I can and he is after all a REIC-ster? But more that he’s likely a newly-minted “foreclosure specialist” playing the down side of the market after f-o-r-m-e-r-l-y cheerleading the market to ever greater permanently high plateau’s.
I can do that, right? Look, if someone has dealt ’solely’ w/ one side of the market or the other for the brunt of their adulthood, hey, I can respect that.
PB (I believe) posted the latest revision to the “Mortgage Reset” chart yesterday.
He called a possible “recovery” in 2013, assuming the chart was correct. IMO, that may be a bit optimistic.
Speaking of rents getting to a level of feasibility…craigslist doesn’t show much rent price declines in the Palm Springs area, unless you want to live in DHS(desert hot springs) which for the uninitiated, DHS is the windy zone, away from anything like shopping or movies etc, and it is just within the legal limit 1.6 hrs of penitentiary the felons were in. They have to stay within a certain mile limit for parole reasons, so DHS has had a troubled history, and the sheriff from Riverside, bless his heart, is trying his darndest to wipe out the meth houses- literally wipe them down to slabs, and get rid of the gangs.
Sooo, the rents are indeed going down, in DHS. Not here.
And what is it with listers in Craigslist that they put a Beaumont condo/house in the Palm Springs listing. sheesh.
The price is right, but the drive will break the car, the blowing sand will do a nice job on the paint on your car/windshields and oh yea, it is further from everything.
Prices for rents aren’t going down much as I see.
“Prices for rents aren’t going down much as I see.”
Have to agree here…I haven’t seen much downward movement in rents yet in either Cleveland or Philly.
DinOr wrote:
Even though the guy’s assessment is fairly honest, I’m -still- calling him a J.O b/c, well firstly b/c I can and he is after all a REIC-ster? But more that he’s likely a newly-minted “foreclosure specialist” playing the down side of the market after f-o-r-m-e-r-l-y cheerleading the market to ever greater permanently high plateau’s.
—————
I believe Mike Morgan is an HBB’er. Ben (or anyone else), please correct me if this is wrong.
Let’s please stop this nonsensical talk about inventory and overbuilding and get back to the subject of green shoots.
Yup, this next half is the part of the storm where the surge will come on-shore.
Forever in Bubbles
by Bill Bonner
Yesterday…we ventured into “Bubble World.”
“What’s going on? When will this be over? How bad do you think it will get? What can we do to turn this around?”
Members of Congress have the same questions the rest of us have. They read the same claptrap in the newspapers. They hear the same balderdash explanations from economists and federal officials. They’re wondering what is really going on.
Not that we know. But they asked us anyway.
We report to you today from the banks of the Potomac. Our old friend, Congressman Ron Paul, organized an off-the-record discussion with several other members of Congress. The subject was the financial meltdown…and the bailout. We were there to talk, of course, but we were more interested in listening.
“You don’t understand,” said a Senate functionary we met later, “these people live in Bubble World. They’re protected from the real world by their staffs and by the system itself. You imagine that they would know what is going on. But they don’t. They know less than we do. And they’ll be the last to find out. They are so busy meeting constituents…dealing with donors…working out deals with their political parties and supporters…and feeling like big shots…they don’t really have any time to study the issues. So they count on staff and party committees to tell them what to say, how to vote…and what to think.”
http://lewrockwell.com/bonner/bonner383.html
absolutely. I was blogging about local RE for a year, and a staffer in DC who reads the blogs for is boss finally starts asking, is it really that bad? isn’t it going to come back? LOL The pols don’t want to talk about it anyway because it’s bad for biz…
InMontana,
Just go and check the BLS stats for incomes in this country. Right after CEO’s comes “legislators”. I’ll check but I’m pretty sure right after that is Fire/Policeman? LOL!
They are after all de-facto pols, right?
Or rather?
http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2008/03/congress-has-the-wealth-to-weather.html
So comforting.
Link didn’t work.
…nor do most of them care.
Morning everyone! Hope you all had a nice weekend.
Coffee’s perking in the kitchen and all is well with the
world, dogs are out and the cats are fed, the hummingbirds are here and an otter is in the creek.
I’m moving where ever you are……….
I perk my coffee too. It’s just better that way.
A kingfisher landed on the bimini this morning. I see little baby Blue Heron necks sticking up from the treetop nests.
My new toy is a convection oven. That will add some versitality to my living aboard cuisine. This morning’s special is blueberry muffins.
Coffee, a fat cinnamon bun and my local Craigslist. Ahh!
I love the smell of desperation in the morning !
RE: my local Craigslist
There sure are some real crazed mo’fo’s on their Rant and Rave boards.
How so? Do you mean, more than ‘usual’ or is it directed at the economy..?
I enjoy the CL RE ads with the upside-down, near-postal clowns asking their dream price and then all kinds of scary the threats like, to list with “brother-in-law who is a great RE agent” at the end if you don’t pounce now or snap it up.
Note: I did NOT harm, torture or injure any living critters as a small child. Well… maybe a couple of my teachers.
I love Craigslist. A couple of months ago, my husband & I were attempting to purchase a square or oval coffee table that we wanted that would fit into an area in our living room ( too small for the traditional retangular coffee table ). We went to our nearest “decent” furniture store and were informed that not only was the requisite table going to be $497 plus a 6% sales tax, but that there would be a $40 transporation charge from their warehouse a couple of miles away to the store. This is now a $ 566.00 table, and I can assure you that the specimen didn’t have solid gold legs or anything. We asked the salesman to give us a discount, free delivery, or some kind of little lagniappe to make us feel better about purchasing this not-so-special table. Nope. Nuthin.
I was very peeved. Went home, looked at about 250 pictures of coffe tables on Craigslist. Multiple ads, and yucky tables, some of them. We would up getting an antique Drexel with beautiful hardwoods and a cool woven shelf beneath the surface ( some kind of rattan, I guess ) that’s over 50 years old and looks almost new. It goes great with our other furniture. The rattan mesh is in perfect shape. Cost = $100 from some student that was moving out.
We saved 82 % of what a less perfect coffee table would have cost us and guess what, we’re not going back to that store. Ever.
Always love a C/L success story but sadly that’s usually not the case. The number I called said she was “a ten”. Well let’s just say when “she” hiked up that skirt I found out rather quickly what that meant…
Din or…quit peaking. I just reread your post..haha, serves you right. A ten you say?
She was a guy?????
You can’t keep us in suspense like that DinOR.
Oh Good God no! I suppose in my rather inappropriate way I was trying to share that virtually NO ONE on C/L is ‘who’ they say… they are!
I have a buddy that tried his hand at high-end flipping ( and BK’ing dear old dad in the process ) that often boasted about circumventing realtwhores 6% by simply posting on C/L! ( Like he was some kind of genius? )
Wait, it gets worse. While working FC’s back in ‘05 a clown I had the distinct misfortune of stumbling across on C/L very nearly got my lic. pulled by using acct. doc’s w/ MY firm’s name on them to scam people! It cost me a TON of time and you know I just LOVE talking to law enforcement types verifying that this ‘was’ the scamster they thought he was! After that little incident I vowed never to take -anyone- off of C/L seriously. Even when it comes to furniture etc., I mean you do you know the person selling… the stuff is actually the ‘owner’?
>Always love a C/L success story but sadly that’s usually not the case. The number I called said she was “a ten”. Well let’s just say when “she” hiked up that skirt I found out rather quickly what that meant…
I thought CL removed “Erotic Services” section already? Or was this before they removed it?
ps: I only heard about the removal, I didn’t actually go check it myself repeatably over the course of last couple of weeks weeping and crying….
Quit looking up my skirt, DinOr
Well, I guess “looking up my skirt” could REALLY be taken the wrong way, so I guess for the record I should state that my “equipment” is all girly-girl, and all original, too. No reconstruction work from boy to girl, although I used to talk to a few people who had undergone the surgery when I worked at Social Security ( gots to change their sex on their Social Security cards ) !
Thanks for the laughs guys, I really needed some cheering up today!
I’m a craigslist addict. I generally scan the music instruments and the sporting goods (looking for SCUBA equipment). Probably the best wins were a Yamaha high intermediate/pro level tenor sax for $150 and a Roland electronic drum kit for $350. Lots of stuff at above ebay prices of course. People are starting to post back calling out the rip offs, like I used to do with the houses a few years ago.
The commercial real estate section has locals that post the same place 7 times every day with different descriptions. There aren’t that many commercial places listed daily. I smell desperation.
“Thanks for the laughs guys, I really needed some cheering up today!”
No problem DinOR, although you did have us a little worried when you said “This is Almighty…Clear the net…I’m calling in the Air Strikes”.
No problem DinOR, although you did have us a little worried when you said “This is Almighty…Clear the net…I’m calling in the Air Strikes”.
Gosh, no kidding. I crawled under my desk, just in case, before I realized you were being theatrical.
However, it ended well, because I found a linty Twizzler’s licorice cord that I ate because I was hungry, and also a pen I’ve been looking for for a long time.
When one is grappling w/ this damned thing don’t you find yourself sinking to new lows (mentally) just to get on the same level?
Getting your mind wrapped around the sheer scale of the Fraud Bubble is exhausting. When each passing day reveals a whole new layer of con-artists it’s kind of like volunteering for the dunk tank. I find myself wondering, how much fun can it be to “soak” someone that’s -already- drenched? Yet never do we hear a REIC’sta say, “Yeah, I knew it was all BULL! I just figured everyone else was raping the system like a mad monkey, why shouldn’t I? Now I’m ready to pay my fines and do my time”.
Nope. Ain’t happenin’.
I felt the same way during the S&L disaster.
Although the scale this time around makes that look a tea party.
I just stopped reading for several weeks because
1. We had a bit of a family crisis going on, now happily resolved.
2. I didn’t want to think about it for awhile.
3. It’s spring.
All three good reasons.
Those are valid and good reasons, silvery, but I’m still glad you’re back.
Don’t know about rest of the HBB crowd, but I already made my reservation for that “cheap and affordable” $45,000 a week Nantucket beach house. Yes life is good. NOT.
Nantucket Offers Recession Prices for Summer Renter
May 22 (Bloomberg) — Seven bedrooms, pool, cabana, tennis court and six acres of waterfront privacy added up to $55,000 a week for a vacation rental on the island of Nantucket last summer.
Recession price: $45,000.
“Without question, it is the best summer to come to Nantucket,” said Brian Sullivan of Maury People Sotheby’s International Realty, who has been selling and renting estate compounds on the Massachusetts resort island since 1996. “Between the rentals, the restaurants, and the bed and breakfasts, all kinds of great deals are being offered.”
Nantucket, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) off the southern coast of Cape Cod, is a haven for the business elite, including homeowners Eric Schmidt, chief executive officer of Google Inc., and Jack Welch, former CEO of General Electric Co. Visitors who want to temporarily share the island can find weekly rentals for 20 percent less than last year, said Kate Sayle of Denby Real Estate.
Brian Sullivan is a piker. He doesn’t even know the lingo. At that price you don’t “come to Nantucket.” The verb is “to summer” as in “I’m summering on Nantucket.”
Sigh. Can’t get good help these days at all.
It’s time for a “man from Nantucket” limerick competition!
Participate now or be priced out forever.
I’ll not be cruising Nantucket.
I’m pleased just to piss in a bucket.
I’ll cruise the high seas,
take the free breeze,
and pocket the ducat.
The last line needs to “and just pocket the ducat” to make it scan.
But a valiant attempt!
The local marina asks that you not steal the soap and toilet paper from their head during your next late night transient layover. I think I heard the dock-master mumbling something about dirty, stinkin’ whistle-pissers.
HAHA!
With apologies to true limericks and Ben:
There once was a realtor on Nantucket
He told all the buyers to suck it
Along came the crash
Now he’s holding his a**
Cause now all the Buyers say —- it.
Ladies and gentlemen, the reincarnation of Edward Lear!
(good stuff skeptic)
There once was a realturd from Peru
Who couldn’t come up with a clue
while scheming up plans
he ___________,
(keep it going)
Clap, clap. Very cute, skeptic. I like it, since we’ve all been expected to hold onto our a–es these days by the Lords of Wealth, so it’s kind of fun to see them get it too….
Bravo!! Well said.
:::clapping enthusiastically:::
“…and happily pocket the ducat.”
How about Timbuktu
Tim and I a huntin went
Found us three whores in a tent
Since they were three and we were two
I bucked one and Timbuktu
This is the best blog in the world.
Sounds good Polly. So how often have you “summer” in Nantucket yourself? And is your family very wealthy?
Now here’s what I’ve been ‘really’ waiting for!? Since most here will likely be getting their “vacation” homes for back taxes owed, it’s really time for the Housing P0rn Rental Prices to collapse accordingly.
Since most vacay rental prices were built of off MEW-Extraction it’s high time for those plummet like Nantucket too?
I once wanted an affordable rental
But you advertised on Craigslist for free
So it was just a fishing expedition to get your wishing price
Likely wealthy foreigners you felt had more money than sense?
Now you’re stuck holding it and pocketing what cash you ‘do’ get leaving the lender holding the bag
So go f@ck yourself while I trash it
( There! That’s my f@cking limerick ) O.K?
Like my grandma always said:
“A f@cking limerick is better than no limerick at all.”
(uttered with a strong Italian accent.)
pip pip , cheerio!
and all that rot…
Summering in Palm Springs.
Actually, despite growing up in Massachusetts, I’ve never been to Nantucket or Martha’s Vineyard. In my family we figured it was just a long car ride to a ferry ride to an island filled with stuff that was too expensive to bother with.
My grandparents lived across the street from the lake in my home town so summers consisted of swimming lessons at the public beach, messing around in the water at grandma’s alternating with reading library books on a towel in the sun, picking blueberries and the occasional sand castle - I was very fond of digging moats. Family cookouts happened every weekend with good weather and there was always an occasional trip to the local dairy for their their own ice cream and to dare each other to touch the electric fence.
We used summer as a verb when talking about where we worked as summer associates at the big law firms. The pretension was probably left over from when you had to belong to a family that summered in a place like Nantucket to be hired by one of those firms. Also male.
Please don’t say “come to Nantucket”
You’ll upset Polly in the bits bucket
If you want “to come summer”
Pack up your Hummer
And head to where people don’t rough it
There were a few islands and the captain had three daughters. Martha liked wine and got the one with the vinyards. Elisabeth liked cute things and got the small ones. There was one left and Nan took it.
Nantucket is very cute, and good for biking around for a day, and walking on the beach is free, the rich owners still have to put up with the sight of regular folks leaving foot prints in the sand. And the ride on the ferry is not expensive, but the hydrofoil is fast.
May 22 (Bloomberg) — Seven bedrooms, pool, cabana, tennis court and six acres of waterfront privacy added up to $55,000 a week for a vacation rental on the island of Nantucket last summer.
Recession price: $45,000
{Sends Calssified Coded Memo to DHS
Subject: Friendly Pirates here and we are attempting to operate on/off US Coast. Request US Navy Warship ship loaded to the gills with lots of Wall Street or DC Taxpayer Funny Money.
Situation Urgent–Possibly Hopeless. Will attempt to hold out for Renter. This may be last transmission..Over }
Years ago, as in almost 50, the Slim Family started visiting Nantucket. Slim’s Aunt Jean recommended the place, as she and her family found it to be a wonderful venue for the kids. (Jean and her then-husband had three rambunctious kids.)
So, we went to ‘Tucket. Mom made it a point to book our reservations during September or October. Yes, we did have to dodge hurricanes on the way to and from, but that was part of the adventure.
Then, as the 1960s progressed, we found that our beloved ‘Tucket was getting way too pricey. Our last family vacation happened in 1976, and I still recall the way my mother and father pointed out the (high) price of this, that, and everything.
I did discover one “great deal” on Nantucket. If you ride the ferry out there & back without getting off on the island, you pay no fare. It’s a great free boat ride.
“The current downturn is not really a recession at all; it’s more like a self-inflicted wound perpetrated by avaricious speculators who put a gun to the economy’s head and blew its brains out. The banks and Wall Street have created a capital hole so vast that the entire economy is being sucked into the abyss. And it all could have been avoided.”
-Mike Whitney May 2009
The previous expansion wasn’t really an expansion. It was more like a debt-fueled rape and pillage of a future that has since arrived.
Businesses pushed consumers to go into debt and not save for their older years, so they could spend more relative to what the earned, pushing up profits and allowing plutocrats to amass dynastic wealth.
Millions of Americans lazily and greedily went along. As long as the party was on, they didn’t care who would get stuck with the bill.
And Wall Street facilitated the whole thing by borrowing money abroad and lending it to people who couldn’t pay it back.
This was not just a Wall Street event. Wall Street just provided the gust of wind to bring down the house of cards.
I suppose it really doesn’t matter what its called, because all that really matters is the response from our glorious leaders which is to push more debt - to sell cars and houses no one wants at their current prices.
WT Economist,
Outstanding! ‘This’ is the level of understanding we should all be seeking. Unless and until you’re at ‘this’ point, it’s just so much idle bitching.
The only departure I’ll take from yourself or Whitney is the notion “it all could have been avoided”. Strucurally we had issues well prior that ’should’ have told us we could ill-afford bringing this brand of debacle upon ourselves? I’ll say… “most” could have been avoided.
I agree Dinor.
“And Wall Street facilitated the whole thing by borrowing money abroad and lending it to people who couldn’t pay it back.”
While extracting obscene commissions, of course…for their hard work.
DOC
This is the legacy of the 2000’s, clear cutting fruit trees to put in luxury vanilla houses at insane prices.
Maybe just Maybe the era of Dumb and Dumber is finally over.
ya think?
No…this is the legacy of 2-3 generations worth of individuals who established and managed the biggest Ponzi scheme that ever existed since the dawn of man.
This is the legacy of decisions made in 1913 and of decisions made by Woodrow Wilson.
This is the legacy of 50 million or so people who decided they were entitled to the money and assets of their progeny.
This is the legacy of individuals who think it just to receive government handouts (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, assorted free services) while knowing damn well that they are raping their children and grandchildren.
That’s what this is the legacy of.
Not at all sure I follow? The WWII guys worked hard, lived WELL within their means, saved, paid cash where and whenever possible and were grateful for whatever they had.
The whole Medi/Medi thing is a whole seperate issue. Why confuse things in this moment of clarity? ‘This’ Bubble is ‘this’ bubble. Can we ‘please’ *not coat tail our every pet peeve to suit any agenda? Please?
Exactly DinOR. The plenty-plaints and their perpetual petty grievances gets old.
Seconded, D.
This is a legacy of public ignorance over the past 100 years. Can you blame someone (WWII guys) for being ignorant as our money was replace with paper, our constitution was ignored, and their kids were raised with unquestioned faith in government schools?
It is hard to blame people whom are “unaware” or intentionally deceived. Do you blame the suicide bomber kids or those responsible for “raising them”? In our society the powers that be have cultivated a culture of ignorance and misinformation and engineered this crash. You cannot blame the masses who were raised to be dependent upon government and to live at the expense of others. It takes a rare individual to think outside the box society puts us in.
This depression will teach a new generation the hard lessons of fiat money and socialism.
The Wall Street types came up with the plan for stripping assets back in the 70’s
-Borrow money, buy a company that has cash in the bank.
(Not that it mattered that a lot of it was “rainy day” capital). At the time, this was called “mismanaging shareholder assets”.
-Steal all the cash, by calling it “management fees”
-Borrow money against the company’s other assets, take that money and run. Write yourself a bunch of stock options.
-Cut pay, capital expenditures, research and development, increase workhours, to make the companies numbers look good for a few quarters, thus “increasing shareholder value”. Keep the worker bees buried under problems, so they don’t have time to sit back and figure out what is going on.
-Make even more bank off an IPO, or put the company in Chapter 7 or 11, after all the assets have been stripped and sold. Or, move/sell all the operations overseas, because their business is “uncompetitive”.
They trashed about 90% of the businesses in the country this way……the only actual assets left in the USA were in SFH. So the locusts moved on.
Notice that every step along the way, these jackholes get PAID FIRST.
I disagree with all of you. The ignorant masses back then should have reasoned things through more, just as the ignorant masses of today should (whom you often complain about here).
Eudemon,
I am not one to shift responsibility away from individuals for most things, but I know that if given 100 kids from the age of 5 to 18, I could teach them to believe just about anything and less than 5% would take the time/energy to learn otherwise. If they are taught superstitions, that the 4 elements are fire, water, air, and earth, and that the sun revolved around the earth and that such and such race,religion,etc is evil then they would accept it and act accordingly in their life.
When the 5% who learned otherwise attempt to enlighten the masses they will be ridiculed because that is what the masses were trained to do to new ideas not coming from certain “authorities”.
Without outside influence, society would gradually learn from the 5% until all were enlightened. The problem is that there are “enlightened” individuals who benefit from the masses being deceived and these people have sufficient power and influence to prevent the masses from out growing their ignorance. These are the people to blame because they *intentionally* deceive others to gain more power.
What he said.
There always have been, and always will be, ignorant masses in any society. There will also always be “enlightened” people in any society. The success of any society is determined by the will, and the ability (lack thereof), of the enlightened to influence the masses.
The will of the enlightened is usually a negative force - specifically the enlightened always generally wish to take advantage of the masses for their own benefit. That being the case, the success of the society then rests on the ability of the enlightened to do so. Part of the reason why the U.S. has been as successful as it has been is the binding of this ability of the enlightened by the chains of the constitution.
The chains have been rusting for years. They are now falling apart, unfortunately.
“……given 100 kids from 5-18, I could teach them to believe just about anything……..”
Do you have any kids age 15-18?
Nobody can teach them anything, especially if their teacher is over 40.
To VTD and Packman - No, not really. I get what you’re saying, but consider the following.
The ‘enlightened’ of yesteryear put in place a system of theft and corruption that benefitted an entire generation of folks (their own) at the expense of entire generations that followed.
And they knew it, too.
The “enlightened” thieves of 1913 and 1918 gamed the system and then followed that up with promises of security in old age via Hoover and FDR (Roosevelt simply enacted the social welfare plans that Hoover dreamt up. FDR was Hoover’s henchman, essentially). Back then, as today, most people were more than willing to accept government handouts.
Frankly, I believe that the Founding Fathers would be disgusted of both the ‘enlightened’ and the general population who were of age from 1913 to 1960 (as disgusted by them as anyone born after 1960).
Don’t fool yourself. Huge numbers of people lived on credit from 1940 onward. What do you call Social Security? Medicare? Aid to farmers? Water rights?
Those were and are every bit a form of credit as anything Visa, Mastercard or CitiBank ever issued.
With the exception of who gets to pay the credit issuer, of course.
Eudemon I think we’re vehemently agreeing.
Except this:
You’re not really proposing that all people of the early 1900s’ generation benefited from the creation of the Federal Reserve are you? You’re familiar with what happened in the 1930’s and 1940’s right?
“Maybe just Maybe the era of Dumb and Dumber is finally over.
ya think?”
For a while maybe, but they’ll just re-erect their collapsible card table on another street corner, place the pea under one of the walnuts shells, scuffle and start “gaming” the fools all over again one way or another.
A SHELL game IS STILL a SHELL game, whether it’s PLAYED in some back-alley or on Wall Street.
Not to worry, the stock market is rocketing straight up. In a few more months time, we should be back in the teens, and off to DOW 20,000. Recession? Naaaahhhh!
XGS-fixer,
Right, I recall reading “The American Dream ( what went wrong? )” where they talked about how “Simplicity” ( the sewing pattern company ) became the text case for proper stripping operations.
Most of “The Consultants” work off WS though.
I spent some time in the “Americans at War” exhibition at the Smithsonian Museum of American History this weekend. In the portion on the Revolution there was a small section on provisioning. Merchants (the Haliburtons of the day) followed the army and sold food and other goods to the soldiers. One of the information cards notes that the merchants were not allowed to sell to the enlisted soldiers or NCO’s on credit, only cash.
Seem that even the Continental Army knew that allowing large numbers of people to borrow money to obtain goods benefited the sellers more than the purchasers. I wonder if Washington himself had anything to do with the decision or if it was considered so obvious that a decision never really had to be made?
Good lesson.
If I recall my history, that was the period of time when the saying “not worth a continental” came into vogue due to the vast amount of currency the Continental Congress created to pay for the war.
I think the soldiers would have been better off borrowing and paying off their debts with the almost worthless currency(assuming they survived of course).
What debts? The provisioners were obliged to take what cash was available. Could not tell the cold hungry men that they had to sign over IOUs to get extra food or a moth eaten blanket. These guys were farmers. If they had been obliged to take on debt to keep themselves alive, they might have lost their land to pay it off.
A black friend of mine always jokes he’ll trust the US Government when they issue him his “40 acres and a mule”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/40_acres_and_a_mule
Awesome, very informative reference…
Thus yrs later, came the ‘Pullman’ town and later the song…
“..I owe my soul to the company store..”
There’s an article on msn.com called “That’s so 2005: What were we thinking?”. The first 9 are all housing bubble related. I had no idea builders were including “Costco” closets.
That’s so 2005: What were we thinking?
1. McMansions
2. Granite countertops
3. Remodeling as an investment
4. House porn
5. Cash-out refinancing
6. Costco closets
7. Zero-down financing
8. Option ARM mortgages
9. Condos as investments:
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/SavingandDebt/LearnToBudget/thats-so-2005-what-were-we-thinking.aspx?page=all
What is a Costco closet? Is is just a rather spacious pantry so you have space to store the 12 pack of canned veggies that is the smallest unit you can buy at a warehouse store? Sounds a heck of a lot more useful than granite countertops…
replace “costco closets” with “gift wrapping rooms” then.
Hey, we have one of those! My hubby is in love with Costco. Trouble is, we buy bulk food we don’t normally eat, and it’s all cheaper at WalMart anyway.
Yeah, but then you have to mingle with the unwashed masses who shop at Wal-Mart.
Hey, what about scrapbooking rooms for the gals and man caves for the guys?
Yeah, don’t forget those.
Can also be used as ‘candle-making rooms’ and ’soap-making kitchens’, but more likely will be used for growing pot.
Speaking of Costco, did anyone catch yesterday the movie that was set in 2025 on the comedy channel? taking all we have and blowing it way out there..
desertdweller,
You have just discovered the gem that is “Idiocracy”. Many posters here have commented on the film before.
Brawndo!! It has electrolytes!!
It’s not a gem, it’s an extremely interesting idea executed poorly.
“Water?”
“It’s got what plants want”
Housing Porn. Nice. It ought to be added to the bubble lexicon here.
My grandma used to call her ‘Costco closet’ a pantry. She was awesome in her quaintness.
All the houses around Boise have small walk-in pantries, if for no other reason than to satisfy the demands from the LDS community.
Ugh! Reminds me of why I would prefer living in Berkeley, Santa Monica, or Portland.
What, just to get away from Mormons and their pantries? That’s a rather extreme reaction just to a simple pantry.
Wow…talking about the Saints and the little devil pops up ?
Hi Oly
Sorry, I had bad trips when I tripped out on LDS! I was an employee of one who was an employee of one who was an employee of one. You dig? I got the shaft and had to work ten times harder than my colleagues who were in the network. LOL - I worked on Saturdays for free too to work a solution to a technical challenge.
One of them disowned a daughter who got preggo out of wedlock. I disrespected him for that. And no, it was not me who got her preggo.
The church was big in that community.
I was Just wondrin where she was today…lurking !
Wow…talking about the Saints and the little devil pops up ?
Yes, here you are!
Hi, mikey
…Hey, wait…
*indignation face! *
She was flexing her muscles and said she was going to put on her best colorful geo-duck wrestling costume complete with mask and cape and pick a fight last night.
She’s very quiet now, so I guess the little clams got the best of her.
She’s very quiet now, so I guess the little clams got the best of her.
Alas, it is true. The giant comical-looking clams kicked my bum, mostly.
Curse you, geoducks, curse you!!
*shakes bashed up little pink fist towards the ocean *
Man, you should see my hands. Plus the backs of my legs and neck. That ’sun’ thingie emerged, see and scorched my pelt. It’s not a myth after all. Who knew?
But I feel good, although in a defeated sort of way, because it was so fun to see so much beach exposed. That was absolutely the lowest I’ve ever seen the tide go.
Anyway, Combo was right yesterday when he said he heard geoducks could dig real fast. I had heard that too, but I was all cocky, because I dug out my very first one fairly easily and I therefore considered myself ‘Funny-P**nis-Looking- Giant- Clam- Digger-Outter-Extraordinaire’.
But yesterday I went back down to the beach again to rejoice in the second day of minus tide and the suddenly huge and wide beach, and man! I got no luck! It took me forever to fetch out another one, and about 5 got away! Plus they made fun of my cape! Those tubular jerks!
I took it personally. No more giggling and skipping around, in pink spangled tights or out—this is WAR.
I have a vision of a pale, skinny, spandex-wearing, thirty-something female walking around a wrestling ring set up on the beach, trash-talking to the clams…….all she needs is a “wrestling name”
“Triple A”?
WCWA = World Clam Wrestling Association
…a vision of a pale, skinny, spandex-wearing, thirty-something female walking around a wrestling ring set up on the beach, trash-talking to the clams…
You make it sound like that’s not a good thing!
I think Oly just tripped on her cape this time. (You know she drinks like a sailor,don’t ya?) Not a real good idea before a clam mud-wrestling bout but we still love you and are a 110% behind you “Mighty Maiden of Muck”
Who’ll give me odds that the next mollusk pins her in 10 seconds or less ?
If I gave that impression, I apologize.
“… a vision of a pale, skinny, spandex-wearing, thirty-something female walking around a wrestling ring set up on the beach, trash-talking to the clams”
That image could be the ONLY thing that is stopping the Chinese Commie hordes from storming our western beaches and claiming and enjoying their US a$$et$.
(trash talking to hidden clams = Crazy woman to many Asians, not unlike many older North America Indians tibes)
(You know she drinks like a sailor,don’t ya?) Not a real good idea before a clam mud-wrestling bout but we still love you and are a 110% behind you “Mighty Maiden of Muck”
Like THREE sailors, Mr. Man. Besides, how do the clams know I had some beers?
And hey! I b’leeve I just found my Wrestle-Mania handle! Awesome! Thanks, mikey! Now all I need is some midgets.
LDS community?
Grandma’s pantry in her 100+ year old house held mason jars full of stuff from the garden. Mmmm.
So did my LSD gran’s pantry! Ranked row upon row of canned garden produce…however, they were frequently so old that we couldn’t tell if we looking at apricots or pickled ears.
The taste was no clue, either, unfortunately.
So did my LSD gran’s pantry! ….The taste was no clue, either, unfortunately. Having LDS flashbacks, again, eh?
Ah, Later Day Saints. Didn’t know what the acronym stood for. My granny wasn’t one of them.* She just liked canning.
* To the best of my knowledge, she didn’t have anything to do with LSD either.
My grandmother liked canning as well. And she had lots to do with LSD, that’s why she always spoke in heavily accented limericks.
Along time ago when the Mormons were treking out to the west in order to practice there “faith” alot of them starved out in the wild.
Thus its custom for members to have huge store houses of food. I think its about 2 years worth.
Along time ago when the Mormons were treking out to the west in order to practice there “faith” alot of them starved out in the wild.
Don’t forget dehydration, disease, childbirth, injury, and just plain old being worn to death.
Sigh.
…Oh, hey, guess what, my great-great-great gran Evangeline was one of two or maybe three girls who survived one of those lovely field-trips out to Utarr!
They started out with a lot more kiddies, of course, but you know how it goes when blind zealotry and the desert badlands mix…*
*Not so good. At least for kiddies.
…but how did we segue from canned ears to dying in the wilderness? Look, let’s just stick with canned ears. That’s more pleasant, I’m sure.
“…to dying in the wilderness?”
How does one who is not descended from the LSD fold politely explain that his genetic makeup is not cut out for a life of hard labor rife with limitless opportunities to earn spiritual blessings? I can tell without needing to join that I would never be able to keep up in a race to outgood those who survived the evolutionary pressure of trecking half way across the country heavily laden with hand carts in tow.
Actually there are some housing related problems in some of the other items as well. Item 11 (Birkin Bag), item 13 (financing plastic surgery), item 15 (mega-SUVs), and item 20 (”Las Vegas”) are all tied into housing stupidity and MEW.
Moments of clarity folks. Moments of clarity.
If “the end” truly is near, one can always find comfort in knowing they’ve ample toilet paper. And LOTS of it! I’d hate to be the last remaining human left on Earth w/ a smelly ass.
I mean, have some decency!
But you could probably LIVE in your mega-Suv. That’s gotta count for something, especially if you ordered it with granite countertops !
Ben, a few days ago in the western thread you said “I thought it was an interesting article, as it shows exactly how the system works. For whatever reason, the vast majority of REOs go to a handful of UHS…”
A lot of the realtors with the REO’s have been long time members of REOMAC and know the assets managers who know the banks. It’s a small tight-knight world involving a lot of the same people over and over again. Everybody wants in the exclusive REO club right now but it’s unofficially got a closed membership. Foreclosures, REO’s, short sales, they’ve been around forever but it was such a niche market for everyone; but now that it’s exploded REOMAC members are the most popular people at the party.
Twice a year REOMAC has a huge conference in Cali. The NY Times did a story in April on the last conference:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/06/us/06convene.html?_r=2&partner=MARKETWATCH&pagewanted=all
A few attorneys from my firm have been long time members and it helps get business. One lawyer tells me that for every 1 file closed per month they get 2 more. This pattern has been continuing for a couple of years now. Especially since IL is now #5 in foreclosures behind CA, AZ, NV and FL, they can probably expect a lot more.
(Wow, I lurk practically everyday but this is my first post in like a year!)
And a great post it is, Legal. How can I get my attorney to be part of that club?
Thanks for the link!
phillygal,
Don’t sign up for “that club” just yet! “I’m calling in the Air Strike. It’s just wrong on so many levels?
“Everyone wins but the loser,”
we’ve all known that the best REO deals go to insiders.
Now with the inventory starting to explode, “that club” will have to admit new members of necessity, no?
from wmbz’s post above:
a surge of second and vacation homes being dumped, and third-wave flippers realizing that they entered the market too soon.
Those third wave flippers are my competition. They are mucking up the sheriff’s sales, bidding up properties in the hopes of turning a nice profit next year “when the market turns around”. I knew a guy who used to pick up houses for five or six thousand dollars at sheriff’s sales, I’m talking pre-boom obviously, but into the early part of this decade.
I’d be happy if I could get one for 30 thousand dollars.
I dunno what to say, except I had to go take a shower after reading that article. Dang, the sleaze just oozed right out of the the computer at me.
I remember you Legal Eagle…good post and welcome back!
Yeah, Legal Eagle, long time, no post and all that. Welcome back!
Exactly Legal Eagle.
But to add to that, my experience with the S&L disaster showed that there was so much property that it really didn’t help the insiders unless they got rid of the huge inventory, hence the RTC.
And even then, after the smoke finally cleared, there were still plenty of amazing deals left, but you had to look for them or at least, just keep an eye open. I’m talkin’ “Just take over the damn property, keep it maintained and pay us something, anything, for it with no money down. Lease, rent, buy. We don’t care.”
Damn I missed out on some sweet deals back then.
Is this one of those green shoots everyone is talking about?
S&P: Home prices fall by record 19.1 percent in 1Q
NEW YORK (AP) — Home prices fell at the fastest annual rate ever in the first quarter, but the pace of month-to-month declines continues to slow, a closely watched housing index showed Tuesday.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller National Home Price index reported home prices tumbled by 19.1 percent in the first quarter, the most in its 21-year history.
Home prices have fallen 32.2 percent since peaking in the second quarter of 2006 and are at levels not seen since the end of 2002.
The 20-city index fell by 18.7 percent in March from the year before and the 10-city index lost 18.6 percent. Those declines were a bit better than February’s and marked the second straight month the indexes didn’t post record drops.
Still, there are no signs home prices have hit bottom.
“We see no evidence that a recovery in home prices has begun,” said, David M. Blitzer, chairman of the S&P index committee.
All 20 cities showed monthly and annual price declines, with nine setting annual records. Fifteen cities posted double-digit drops and three cities — Phoenix, Las Vegas and San Francisco — all recorded declines of more than 30 percent.
Interesting how the Murky News has to alternate “We be Saved !” with “Housing down another 20%!”
Las Vegas joined Phoenix in the “under-50” club (cities in which prices have fallen 50% off peak prices).
Cleveland and Detroit remain the only two “under-2000” cities (cities in which prices have fallen below January 2000 levels).
Miami is the city closest to being the third member of the under-50 club, currently 47% off peak.
Atlanta is the city closest to being in the third member in the under-2000 club, currently at 104.89 (I’d argue with the rate of decline in Phoenix – currently at 106.83 and falling at over 5% per month – that city will be the next to join that list and the first two-club city).
According to that NY Times article, their financial writer has been living in his house in VA for 8 months with no mortgage payment.
If banks are at least 6 months behind in kicking out deadbeats, there is still quite a bit of downside left.
Bad Chile,
Don’t get me wrong, it’s all very welcome, but I won’t rest until -every- city ( regardless of size ) can make that claim!
Seeing major metro’s getting booty-slammed isn’t helping those of us in rural areas ( read unemployed ) connect w/ affordable housing. IMHbooty-slammingO
“S&P: Home prices fall by record 19.1 percent in 1Q”
I would say that is a green shoot, as the longer home prices fall at a record rate, the faster we will get to a housing bottom.
Amen, PB!!
Don’t forget NoVA / DC
We have all the bailout money going thru here!
We have all the jobs!
Prince William Co. is in the crapper, except for the low end
(uh, isn’t the low-end always “moving” anyway??)
More evidence the bubble is not done collapsing: Most every data release is still “worse than expected.”
Financial Times
From World 3:18PM
House prices tumble 18.7% on year
Case-Shiller index falls more than expected
US house prices remained in free-fall in March, dropping 18.7 per cent from the same period last year, according to an index of prices in 20 American cities.
The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index fell by more than economists were expecting as a slew of foreclosures across the country continue to drive prices lower. Month-on-month, the index slid 2.2 per cent.
…
—————————————————————————-
A one-month drop of 2.2 per cent occurs at an annualized rate of decline of
-((1-2.2/100)^12-1)*100 = 23.4 per cent.
I think I got the sign right that time
. In case it is unclear from anything in these articles, this 23.4 per cent rate of decline is for the entire U.S. Coastal housing markets formerly known as “a bit frothy” may hence be experiencing more rapid rates of price decline.
Try not to catch yourself a falling knife.
There is always a silver lining. Anyone feeling glum about how fast housing prices are dropping can console themselves with the news that consumer optimism is steadily rising. Not only that, but the stock market is always going up again…
Blue chips on a roll
U.S. consumer confidence surges — May’s gain is the fourth-largest in the index’s 32-year history — as the employment outlook brightens.
Economic Report
May 26, 2009, 10:25 a.m. EST
Consumers’ confidence surges on brighter job view
By Ruth Mantell, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — A reading on U.S. consumer confidence jumped to 54.9 in May from an upwardly revised 40.8 in April as expectations for jobs improved, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.
The gain is the fourth-largest in the 32-year history of the survey, and the index is at its highest level in eight months. Economists were expecting the index to hit 43.
“Expectations are that business conditions, the labor market and incomes will improve in the coming months,” said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center. “While confidence is still weak by historical standards, as far as consumers are concerned, the worst is now behind us.”
There was also a confidence surge in April.
“…as expectations for jobs improved…”
And where does the average shopper think these new jobs will come from on such short notice to enable a whiplash recovery?
Or the debt to fuel these companies given that they virtually all are highly-leveraged debt-fueled machines?
Or the debt to fuel these companies given that they virtually all are highly-leveraged debt-fueled machines?
That one’s easy - just look at where they’ve been getting it the last 7 months.
The confidence bounce, it’s Pavlovian. From a popular conscience perspective, we are only now entering uncharted waters.
The debt is coming the lender and spender of last resort, the Federal Gov’t. The debt crisis is about to move up to the last link in the chain. One more party before it all comes down.
As much as I hate to rain on the bull’s parade, I feel compelled ot point out that the bounce in the Consumer Confidence Index has only sufficed to bring it up roughly to the bottom level reached in the early-1990s recession — hardly a level to justify all the irrational exuberance that is running amok on Wall Street today.
Oh, brother. Debt.
Yesterday, I called my parents to wish them a happy Memorial Day. And, once again, my mother had to weigh in on the behavior of other people at the grocery store.
If you’ve never seen Mom at Genuardi’s, you’re in for a treat. She’s been shopping at this place for years. And she knows all of the employees. Which means that a good part of her store visit involves chatting with everyone. Doesn’t matter if they’re the store’s regional manager or the grocery baggers. Mom will talk to them.
Any-hoo, what really got Mom going was people who were using plastic to pay for the in-store Starbucks. She watched one lady pull out the plastic for something that cost two bucks. Mom was amazed. This person didn’t have two singles in the wallet?
I tried to explain that the other shoppers may have been using debit cards, but Mom was unconvinced.
She watched one lady pull out the plastic for something that cost two bucks. Mom was amazed. This person didn’t have two singles in the wallet?
You have to be careful about assumptions… I always have at least 100 cash on my person (as Charlie from Two and a Half Men would say, “Walking-around money”), but almost never use it as I use my American Express Blue for everything. Since most stores don’t offer cash discounts and I get anywhere from 1.5 to 5 percent cash back on every purchase on my Amex, it benefits me to use the card. Of course I pay the card off in full every month. This past March I received over 700 dollars cash-back from my Amex…
The AVERAGE shopper isn’t thinking about anyone else and their job prospects. The AVERAGE shopper still has a job, and given where we are in the job loss cycle, the AVERAGE shopper is beginning to feel more and more like they will likely keep their job than lose it.
This appears to be true from what I’m seeing, RW.
After lots of glum news and fast-moving, downward-spiraling markets; most people that I talk to are very convinced the worst is behind us.
I posted last week about **multiple** new job prospects for people we know who’ve been out of work for many months. This was a very sudden change, and I’m hearing about it from different people in very different industries and locations (though all in Southern California).
We’ve seen massive supply capacity destruction during the downturn, and inventories have been depleted rather efficiently.
People’s debts are being wiped-out, either by BK, foreclosure, short-sales, principal write-downs, etc. This is the first half of the problem (borrower side).
The second half of the problem is the lender side, and with the PPIP and various govt/Fed programs, many lenders are either being made whole or have had their losses greatly minimized — thanks to the taxpayers and savers, as our saved money will buy less, and we are getting very low rates on our savings…then there are the taxes.
The only thing I see working in the bear’s favor is the growing problems in the public sector — IMHO, the Treasury market is very jumpy and municipal and state govts are in deep trouble.
We will see how this goes as we move forward, but agree with Mike Morgan in the sense that this is a lull in the hurricane. The problems will shift in the future from private losses to public losses, IMO.
I always love your posts, CA renter.
Thank you, Olygal!
That means a lot coming from you.
You really ought to write for a living (if you don’t already). You have an amazing talent.
This actually amazes me because I don’t think the majority of Americans own much stock outside of their retirement plans and also I suspect many don’t look at their retirement plans regularly. I would guess that gas prices and unemployment/underemployment would have a much bigger effect on consumer confidence.
Oh agreed, but if you look at much TV etc. the sentiment has gone from “Debt=Wealth” to… No Debt=Sanity.
We often sell “the consumer” short here and “I” happen to think they’ve finally had the cold slap of reality we’ve been wanting them to enjoy for years.
Now that they’ve finally been sent reeling, we need to embrace them. Debt does *not=Wealth. Debt=Mo’ Debt.
No Mo’ Debt! Be ‘free’ my brothuh.
The people I work with check their 401ks everyday.
That’s nothing. I call my local savings banks everyday just to hear THEM say…
” Can you hear me now?”
I believe that lot of people were thinking that they would do better, if they were able to keep their head above water for a year or two.
Now reality is setting in; this economy is a zero-sum game, their standard of living continues to go down, all of their “investments” aren’t worth half what they thought they were, and the only “growth” area in the economy (”green investments”) means that they are going to be paying a lot more for a lot less.
In California they say, ‘Press 1 for English’. hehehehehehe
I looked up the Confidence Board a while ago, and learned the members are Fortune 500 CXO’s.
“Consumer confidence baloons, stocks rise” I’m amazed at how gullible the markets are to the lies these surveys profuse. Obviously, they didn’t survey the thousands of unemployed, the forclosed on fb’s, the small businesses going out, or the auto workers at GM. Hitlers tactics in full bloom. Government propaganda.
This is a great audio clip. Whitney Tilson is sort of horrified to see a new bubble forming before the last one has burst.
So awaiting wipeout, that would make them “confidence men” wouldn’t it?
(you just can’t make this stuff up!)
” Home prices fell at the fastest annual rate ever in the first quarter”
Show Spelled Pronunciation [ev-er] Show IPA
–adverb 1. at all times; always: an ever-present danger; He is ever ready to find fault.
2. continuously: ever since then.
3. at any time: Have you ever seen anything like it?
4. in any possible case; by any chance; at all (often used to intensify or emphasize a phrase or an emotional reaction as surprise or impatience): How did you ever manage to do it? If the band ever plays again, we will dance.
Green shoots my foot.
IMHO, all of these clowns and idiots are all standing in a circle watching, waiting and hoping for a worn-out green Astro-Turf doormat to GROW !
“Green shoots my foot.”
You’re reading it wrong, mikey. It’s green DOOTS, kinda like what you find in the toilet after a bad night out.
Bare Trees,
Bare Stool, Palmy…
Bare Stool = Bear Stool. Tired.
Test
I keep trying to post an updated reset chart but it doesn’t work.
The one you posted yesterday (or over the weekend) worked.
Is it the same one you posted in yesterday’s bits bucket?Why is the reset tsunami now scheduled to stay at high crest through 2012? Is it plausible?
———————————————————————————
Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2009-05-25 13:06:14
Updated Mortgage Reset Chart
That’s the one - did it go through finally after all?
Was wondering about that.
Oh, and to answer your plausibility question, it’s basically the same chart as originally. They are just updating it with more recent data.
Yep, no recovery till 2014 or so - has always been my claim as to when to consider buying (might be different in different parts of the country naturally.)
“Yep, no recovery till 2014 or so.”
Sounds good to me.
I’ll have a few years to figure out where I would like to settle down, and then buy cash. It will either be Rochester, or Pinellas County. Maybe if the bust is deep enough I’ll scope out the Hudson Valley.
It’s possible that if you are going to live in the home for a long time that buying earlier than. The reset chart is only part of the problem though as we continue to add more houses than are sold. Not sure how many more we are adding vs population growth.
It’s possible that if you are going to live in the home for a long time that buying earlier than.
huh?
It did. Thanks for posting that.
Interesting to compare that with the previous chart from two years ago.
- Subprime is now pretty much out of the picture. There are still some resets this summer - I’m guessing though that most of those people have already walked, or at least have stopped making payments and are squatting.
- The previous chart had a large peak of option/alt-a/unsecuretized in late 2010, with a smaller peak in late 2011. The late 2011 peak has now grown much larger than the 2010 peak.
What would be *really* useful would be if there was an overlay showing the % downpayments on those ARMs, if it were possible. I would imagine that the late-2011 peak has (or did have) higher downpayments, since those loans were set up after the peak of the bubble in 2005/2006. So even though it’s a bigger peak now than the late 2010 peak; it may be that it’ll have less impact. No way of knowing for sure though.
That’s because of the “rolling” forward (explained below) which has pretty much stopped now that virtually ALL of them are underwater.
I think analysis of the original chart, missed that the term for most of these things was either 3 or 5 years. So roll on 3 years, and 3 more years of issuing mortgages - they haven’t stopped completely, and the “cliff drop” also gets pushed out another 3 years. It’s just a data artifact.
They’re still securitizing loans too - $1 trillion just in the USA last year.
Reset tsunami is high because of all the “rolling” into 5- and 7-year Alt-A and Option-ARM’s.
Think of someone in 2004 who rolled a 3-year into a 5-year in 2007 - that resets in 2012. Same logic with a lot of the other ones.
I assume it gets hard to “roll” forward when one is deeply underwater?
Yeah, that’s when the rolling stops.
I assume it gets hard to “roll” forward when one is deeply underwater?
Yeah, that’s when the rolling stops.
Priceless!
LOL! Yes and rather abruptly I should think?
I know a lot of people obsssesss over The Re-Set Chart… but I’m not one of them. We had a very credible poster ( Hello Kitty ) at Patrick.net that worked in Loss Mitigation when Cali RE bit the big one in the early 90’s and he said people were “just walking away” for a helluva’ lot less down side than we’re facing today!
Hence, The Re-Set Chart is for entertainment purposes only and should not be construed as an infestment.
The delusion about RE is higher today. I think it follows the reset chart quite closely, and the current version has been updated recently so it matters.
FPSS,
If I had a nickel for every time I clicked on the chart link I’d be retired by now. Not saying it isn’t important, just saying I refuse to lose sleep over it any more?
A few bailouts ago… maybe?
The need to roll those resets forward creates a huge moral hazard for the Fed to jump start housing price inflation by whatever means are necessary.
Only as long as the bond market cooperates and I notice that it hasn’t been quite as sanguine these days.
They will fail. The bond market can run rough over any central bank including the Fed.
What happens if inflation starts to rear its head in 2010 or 2011, with all the ARMS coming due?
The Option-Arms are toast anyway, but those with normal ARMs could survive as long as rates remain low. But waht if the Fed wants to raise them to stop inflation? And what about the political consequences?
What happens if inflation starts to rear its head in 2010 or 2011, with all the ARMS coming due?
The Option-Arms are toast anyway, but those with normal ARMs could survive as long as rates remain low. But waht if the Fed wants to raise them to stop inflation? And what about the political consequences?
I’ve brought up this point here a few times. Rock will meet hard place. It’s starting already, as FPSS alluded to, with the recent auctions not going so well. It’s why I’m big on TBT and GLD (as ETF’s go anyhow).
There’s only so much money left liquid enough to put into treasuries. When enough auctions go bad the Fed will have no choice but to buy more, to keep the yields (and thus mortgage rates) down, since it’s obvious we can’t get the overseas participants to ramp up their bond purchases.
Political consequences are impossible to predict, but one guess is that Obama’s going to look like Jimmy Carter II here at some point. Only problem is that the follow-on administration at least had the luxury of raising rates to insane levels to kill inflation. Obama’s successor (even if it’s Obama) won’t have that option without bringing out Mad Max.
The U.S. is about to get its credit rating reduced from AAA to AA. This will bring up notes and bond rates. This will hurt regular ARMs.
Bill Gross also thinks the credit rating will reduce to AA. If it can happen in the UK it can happen here.
Yeah maybe. There were a bunch of articles about this last Friday of course.
Along those lines - those articles seemed to misstate the numbers with regards to the debt/GDP ratio, e.g. in the WSJ:
However our debt is over $10T now, and our GDP is $14T - by my calculation that means our debt-to-GDP ratio is currently 75%, and was about 70% last year. It was way above the 44% stated in the article (and in other similar articles like in WaPo).
What am I missing?
packman, you are missing the fact that they do not count social security or other future obligations because technically they can “change the law” and eliminate that debt without actually “defaulting”.
Don’t understand how the US will get its debt lowered in grade to AA. Its hard to find a currency that isn’t in trouble aside from the precious. China is manipulating their currency to supress wages, while buying treasuries to manipulate our rates.
Japan has been at ZIRP for oh… a long time.
Russia… you trust Putin?
Eurobanks and Britain are in as bad or worse shape as our banks.
So, minor countries like New Zeland, Canada are going to be the currency standards?
There’s been talks of reviving SDRs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Drawing_Rights
Noticing how the thin brown/orange reflecting cummulative exposure shoots off into never never land. Possibly equates to what we can expect in on-going, long term bailouts. I wonder how US gov is going to administer and spin things so there is not rioting in the streets when we are still sending massive funds to the banks, mortgage companies and supporting industries 5, 6, 7 years from now?
There are 177,000 Alt-A loans in California that are resetting this year ! Whoopie.
The most interesting part of the graph in my view is the magnitude of the lines 5 years out. At the current level of lending and prices, only about $3BB per month of these adjustable rate loans are “rollable”.
That means that +/-$20-$30BB per month of these mortgages won’t be rollable, or will be moving to fixed rate (if possible).
Lots of pain coming…lots of pain…
LOL! O’Malley’s a real genius!
Millionaires Go Missing…
Maryland’s fleeced taxpayers fight back.
Here’s a two-minute drill in soak-the-rich economics:
Maryland couldn’t balance its budget last year, so the state tried to close the shortfall by fleecing the wealthy. Politicians in Annapolis created a millionaire tax bracket, raising the top marginal income-tax rate to 6.25%. And because cities such as Baltimore and Bethesda also impose income taxes, the state-local tax rate can go as high as 9.45%. Governor Martin O’Malley, a dedicated class warrior, declared that these richest 0.3% of filers were “willing and able to pay their fair share.” The Baltimore Sun predicted the rich would “grin and bear it.”
One year later, nobody’s grinning. One-third of the millionaires have disappeared from Maryland tax rolls. In 2008 roughly 3,000 million-dollar income tax returns were filed by the end of April. This year there were 2,000, which the state comptroller’s office concedes is a “substantial decline.” On those missing returns, the government collects 6.25% of nothing. Instead of the state coffers gaining the extra $106 million the politicians predicted, millionaires paid $100 million less in taxes than they did last year — even at higher rates.
No doubt the majority of that loss in millionaire filings results from the recession. However, this is one reason that depending on the rich to finance government is so ill-advised: Progressive tax rates create mountains of cash during good times that vanish during recessions. For evidence, consult California, New York and New Jersey (see here).
The Maryland state revenue office says it’s “way too early” to tell how many millionaires moved out of the state when the tax rates rose. But no one disputes that some rich filers did leave. It’s easier than the redistributionists think. Christopher Summers, president of the Maryland Public Policy Institute, notes: “Marylanders with high incomes typically own second homes in tax friendlier states like Florida, Delaware, South Carolina and Virginia. So it’s easy for them to change their residency.”
All of this means that the burden of paying for bloated government in Annapolis will fall on the middle class. Thanks to the futility of soaking the rich, these working families will now pay Mr. O’Malley’s “fair share.”
Housing prices in record decline, stock market on fire.
I can’t figure this out. Why is the market up 2+% when the news is down right horrible? Is it denial? Did hedge fund managers smoke too many green shoots? Is “everbody” expecting we’ll be back to the days of happy, credit funded consumption orgies by the end of this year? Is less bad the new good? Did I miss the big corporate earnings bonanza? Was GM and Chrysler going under just a bad dream? Are our banks really healthy and are going to pay back the bailout money? Did the housing market bottom and are foreclosures declining? Are deficits of 10+% of GDP sustainable indefinitely? Will Obama kiss it and make it all better? Somehow the stock market seems to have completely decoupled from reality.
“Somehow the stock market seems to have completely decoupled from reality.”
That’s why I’ve been sitting on the sidelines for most of the last month. Too much insanity out there, even for me.
Everyone also expects as a given, that when something goes down it soon has to go right back up. What also makes me suspicious about this rally is how the MSM keeps talking about the money on the sidelines not wanting to be left behind.
Plenty of insanity in every direction.
Followers of B. Graham’s school of investing I’m sure are having a field day buying companies with historically low valuations relative to cash flows.
Entire article on Bloomberg.
The comments below by by Federal Finance Housing Agency must be a mis-print. California prices at top of its last bubble in 1991 equaled height of 2006 bubble?
Housing Hitting Bottom Means Fewest Starts Since 1945 (Update1)
By Kathleen M. Howley
“Prices in California fell for six years during the last major housing slump in the 1990s, and didn’t return to their 1991 peak until 2006, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.”
Sorry, it was far more mispriced and the delusion had spread further and deeper than just the traditional areas - Los Banos commutable to San Jose? Gimme a freakin’ break!
Home prices reached their peak 1989/1990 prices around 2000/2001.
Perhaps they mean inflation-adjusted???
Connected through Phoenix airport on my way to LA.
The woman sitting next to me was returning home. Complained bitterly about Californians who came in and drove up “our” housing prices, then went home and everything collapsed. “I’m $50,000 underwater on my house!” So I asked, “did you buy during the bubble?” No, she has owned her home for 20+ years. But she did refinance, pull out every ounce of equity and remodel the entire house. HGTV special, kitchen, bathrooms, flooring, windows, EVERYTHING. And thanks to those darn (not exactly her choice of words) Californians, now she is underwater and can’t move up to Oregon to be close to relatives. Yeah…
Woman across the aisle was talking to her friend, relating a story about how her best friend’s husband walked out on her. The problem: they owe $1million on the house and can’t get that in today’s market. So they are having the lawyer draw up an agreement that the husband stays in the house until “the market comes back” and then they split the profit when he sells.
Conclusion: Delusional thinking still rules the day.
On the flight to LA, however, I met a guy who works as a security guard during the day and rehearses/performs with his band at night. Deadbeat, right? THIS guy doesn’t make much money, but rents a house with two other guys for $1050/mo, saves everything he can, doesn’t even own a credit card. “Credit is for fools.” So perhaps there is some hope for humanity after all. Check out the band, if you are interested in alternative metal, “Outlett.”
Thanks for the report, Groundhoggy.
‘…can’t move up to Oregon to be close to relatives.’
Good. ‘Cause we already gots a plethora of REtards up here in the PNW and we don’t need even one more.
Check out the band, if you are interested in alternative metal, “Outlett.”
Welll….I don’t generally whoop with joy over alternative metal, but I will go google them, since their music is partially produced by someone with at least a bit of brains in their noggin. Maybe it’ll rock my world!
Just what Oregon needs, more housing delusional people! Oh and don’t forget to bring a JOB w/ you? And cash, lots of cash.
Here we go again. More flipperz bad mouthing Equity Locusts ( while desperately needing… them ) when they themselves are looking to exploit an inefficiency?
I hope you told her to stay put and not come down a penny “until the market comes back”?
When ever people talk about waiting until it “recovers”, I always ask them how many more years it will take for the NASDAQ composite to recover back its 2001 high of 5,000.
For me, the dead give away is “to be close to relatives” or any derivation thereof. People know there’s a whole lot that others are willing to gloss over if it’s under the guise of “family”.
Nazz 5000 won’t be far away with days like this one. Google and ipods are going to be the next big thing…
If you left Sunday afternoon from Portland on US Airways by way of Phoenix to LA, you were probably on the same flight as me.
You’d recognize me right away. I had the rainbow wig - NOT!
Outlett has a MySpace page. Good, hard-kickin’ punk — yeah!
Groundhog….as a dj its ok……pretty standard stuff today. her voice is weird i would like to hear her voice without the electronics…might sound a lot better.
But to use alternative is 1984 doublespeak, i would say its more a status quo band. not much alternative to my liking…check my handle for what alternative music really means.
———————-
Check out the band, if you are interested in alternative metal, “Outlett.”
PS sorry for the harsh comments….
But my first thought was OUT-Lett a Gay metal band, now that would be alternative..But I saw no pride day concerts …
I realize the falling dollar has something to do with it, but oil also continues it’s climb in the face of waning demand. I’ve been camping around Lake Tahoe, and the price per gallon is close to $3. This makes no sense given that a barrel of oil is 40% of what it was last year. I’ve never seen anyone address the devastating impact those high fuel prices had on the economy as a whole, and it seems as if speculators are poised to try to run it up again. Apparently, we’ve learned nothing.
PS- I do realize I’m using gasoline on my trip, but I’ve cut my driving in half over the past year.
I’ve never seen anyone address the devastating impact those high fuel prices had on the economy as a whole, I’ve read a few posts saying the high petroleum prices over the last 3 years were as much a cause for the current economic crisis as the housing bubble was.
The housing bubble was as much a cause for the rise in petroleum prices as anything. Consider how much oil it takes to mine, mill, make, assemble and transport everything that goes into a house. My bet is that it was more demand than all the car driving in total.
The speculators running the price up today are going to go down in flames. Ditto copper and other yellowish things.
BB,
O.K., going up to Sequoia’s over the weekend, gas was nearly $2.69-$2.79 pretty much the length of the San Joaquin valley…Arco was @ $2.49 in Bakersfried…However, in Exeter, CA …we got a 20 oz A&W root beer float for .99 cents!
It’s $2.65 for a gallon of regular down at the Island Market here on Steamboat Point now, Bear.
Oh, that reminds me, last night I stopped by there on my way home and my eyes fell upon the cigarette ads. I suppose normally my brain just edits those ads out, since I don’t smoke, (except for every now and then, and they don’t sell what I’m smoking at the Island Market anyway, nyuk nyuk) but this time I actually registered what I was seeing and verily, I was sore amazed and didst loudly exclaim: “Camels are $6.19 a pack?! Are you serious?” and the clerk said, ‘That’s before taxes.’
I could not believe this! About 7 bucks for a pack of cigarettes? Who would pay that? That’s crazy.
They probably don’t. I suspect there is a huge cigarette black market.
“…except for every now and then, and they don’t sell what I’m smoking at the Island Market anyway, nyuk nyuk…”
Hey! Lay OFF those banana peels!
“…but this time I actually registered what I was seeing and verily, I was sore amazed and didst loudly exclaim: “Camels are $6.19 a pack?! Are you serious?” and the clerk said, ‘That’s before taxes.’”
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAA!!! $6.19 per pack???! Holy smokes!!!
Hey OLY, guess who rear-ended me tonight on the way home from work?
I sure hope it wasn’t one of her mollusky things.
Nope! But, close, Blue!!
I sure hope it wasn’t one of her mollusky things.
Okay, that was pretty dang funny, I have to say.
So was your post yesterday, Skye, only I read it late and didn’t reply, but I still laughed.
Hey OLY, guess who rear-ended me tonight on the way home from work?
Sa*t*an? Bigfoot? A drunk leprechaun?
Quick, man, tell me! I’m on pins and needles, here!
Comment by ATE-UP
2009-05-26 14:25:43
Sorry for double, but it is imperative you ask me, “Who rear-ended you tonight”?
You must…
“Hey OLY, guess who rear-ended me tonight on the way home from work”?
OK. I’ll answer myself. A young lady late to day care and uninsured due to poverty did about 450 to my rear bumper, and I can fix it myself.
She was crying. I saw she was OK. Told her to blow it off. Most , if not all, on this blog would have done the same.
I practice law near E St. Louis, Il. Un/Underinsurance is the cheapest thing you can buy, “bang for the buck wise”.
Get 500K minimum. An umbrella doesn’t hurt either. They too, are cheap.
I forgot to add the important point. OLY will get the rest of my post. Go to yesterdays post. This is really good.
Oh Hell! I give up. I thought it was funny, now I’m bored with it.
James Kunstler (sp) has an article on his web site, “clusterf*cknation” today that is worth the time of the intelligent people I have met here at this blog, (and also have come to respect), to read.
“Wishes, Hopes, and Fantasies”.
OK. I guess I can see this. Yesterday, I funned Oly re “Women Drivers”. I got rear ended by a lady tonight. Joke, OK? Nothing else. Like it here.
You really and truly got rear-ended by a lady?
I mean, both of you were in cars and everything?
Well, that su*cks! Sorry to hear it.
Is this irony or something? I disapprove of irony, unless it happens to realtors and mortgage brokers!
Well, then, ATE, I hereby retract my plans to briskly slap the patronizingness right out of you*, in a gesture of sympathy.
*For now. But you’d like it, if I were to, just so you know. I’m a good slapper. See, brisk, but not tooooo brisk. It’s a talent. You either got it or you don’t.
Yeah, it could have been way worse. Being rear ended by a dude, I mean. just joshing you….:-)
You, or any other fine lady like you, can slap me anytime you like, because I’ll know I deserved it.
Yeah, an uninsured lady late to day care did a little damage, she was crying (genuine) that did it, told her forget about it. I’ll fix Pricilla (my car’s name) myself.
Bless her heart, she didn’t mean to do it. Bad thing was, it was off interstate at major road. Big cement pond truck coming fast. She pushed me close to on coming truck. All I could do was lay on the brakes. That’s it. Routine intersection home, and I was too far out (familiarity/tired) to begin. It could have been a bad wreck, for sure.
LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!
I just read Mike Tyson’s little girl died. My heart goes out to him and his family. Iron Mike may not be able to take this hit. He is an intelligent and sensitive man who just made mistakes like the rest of us… Most of them he wouldn’t do again. I do not excuse his mistakes.
No, being rear-ended by a Joshua Tree would be much, much worse than any scenario above. Are you all INSANE ? Joshua Trees for everyone.
The girl’s name was Exodus. Nomen est omen.
It could have been a bad wreck, for sure.
I’m really glad it wasn’t. Also, that was gentlemanly of you.
…I hope she doesn’t sue you for whiplash later.
Say, is your car REALLY named ‘Priscilla’? Or did you just make that up?
I hope your neck is okay. Is your neck okay? Tell me now!
Oh Hell! I give up. I thought it was funny, now I’m bored with it.
What’s your middle name? Is it perchance: ‘ADHD’?!
Hahahahah!
*falls off chair laughing *
Oh, but you know what the funniest part here is? I was gonna ask that question earlier, but then I became distracted by something.
Hahahahaah!
*falls off again *
What did you ask me?
Was wondering if anyone was concerned about Iran and North Korea at this point?
How do we see that playing out?
N.Korea- They must need some food or fuel aid. Much like an 8 year old, they have a tantrum every 6 months or so, and the rest of the world, like an overprotective Soccer Mom, appeases the little $hit, instead of beating his little a$$.
Eventually, China is going to decide that the North Koreans are more trouble than they are worth.
Iran- They are going to get nukes, for better or for worse. Nobody wants to do what needs to be done, either economically or politically/militarily to prevent it.
Say what you will about the Cold War, but the nukes kept both governments from doing something really stupid. Rhetoric aside, I don’t think that Iran is stupid enough to start a nuke exchange with Israel, or with us. It has the effect of making the US and Israeli governments thnk long and hard before starting something with Iran.
The short version………it’s all the USA’s fault.
The cold war only worked because there was only 2 major nuclear powers. If everyone has a few nuks the cold war does not work because if a bomb goes off in DC you may never know who set it off.
This is not strictly-speaking logically true - the RAND corporation thought about this scenario many many decades ago (possibly before many here were born!)
Mutually assured destruction. I met some of the people who worked on this when I was at the Bland Corp. Every year we popped popcorn and watched Strangelove in the War Room. Good bunch of people there from all ends of the political spectrum.
Eventually, China is going to decide that the North Koreans are more trouble than they are worth.
I wonder how long China’s “PLA” would take to conquer N. Korea - 24 hours or 48 hours? Plus the Russkies won’t like having all the N. Korean nuke tests right up 5 miles from their border.
They must need some food or fuel aid. Much like an 8 year old, they have a tantrum every 6 months or so, and the rest of the world, like an overprotective Soccer Mom, appeases the little $hit, instead of beating his little a$$.
I believe that may well be the most concise, penetrating, and valid evaluation of the world’s policy vis a’ vis N. Korea that I have ever heard.
…Oh, do you know, by the way, I do an AWESOME Kim Jong-il impersonation. Almost as good as my ‘Godfather’ impersonation and my ‘HAL the evil computer in 2010′ impersonation, but unfortunately no one knows who I’m being, so it ruins it a bit.
Eventually, China is going to decide that the North Koreans are more trouble than they are worth.
Oh, PLEASE let me be alive to witness that day! (As long as I’m not alive and in N. Korea on that day.) *shudder *
Outstanding point.
I am very concerned but more concerned about Iran than N. Korea. The leaders in N. Korea just want leverage to keep themselves in power. I don’t think they would ever use them unless attacked and their survival was threatened.
Iran however is led by fanatics who believe a Muslem “messiah” will return and his return can be sped up with the acquisition and use of nuclear weapons.
I see Israel trying to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities before the end of the year and Iran trying to close the Straits. The U.S. Navy won’t allow them. Iran’s nuclear program will be pushed back several years and Iran will suffer a defeat that will sting them for many years.
sorry but I think you are very misinformed about Iran. you need to read unbiased sources other than Fox or CNN. I don’t think Iran is interested in Nuke-Weapon.
I am not sure why they even bother with N. Korea. just leave them alone. if they start war they’ll pay the price.
Well then I guess I just misinterpreted when Iran’s leader said multiple times that he wanted to “wipe Israel from the earth”. He probably meant he wanted to “shower Israel with flowers”.
Bare Trees only. Won’t be no Bear’s to leave stool product, and, few trees.
Bear’s = Bears.
Two countries that are only pawns in the bigger game and who are getting more publicity than they are worth…
..which usually indicates deliberate misdirection.
My bet is on China Blockading Taiwan while selling our treasuries…
I think china is getting scared that they have lost Taiwan forever…
—————————–
Two countries that are only pawns in the bigger game
Green Shoots?
Jehovah Witnesses brings apocalyptic topic to West Palm Beach’s ‘leaky teepee’
By ANDREW ABRAMSON
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Sunday, May 24, 2009
WEST PALM BEACH — It’s the start of the Jehovah Witnesses’ convention season, and this year they’ll be preparing for the end of the world.
Starting Friday, the Witnesses will host 14 consecutive weeks of conventions at the Christian Convention Center on Palm Beach Lakes Boulevard.
This year’s theme, “Keep on the Watch!” is designed to discuss world events and how they relate to the Bible’s prophecy of the apocalypse.
While all conventions are open to the public, the Witnesses are specifically inviting the public to a discussion with the provocative title, “How to Survive the End of the World,” which will be at 11 a.m. Sunday.
“We feel it is imminent,” spokesman Richard Ferris said. “We can’t really put a date on it, and the scriptures tell us that nobody knows days or hours, but we’ll look at the signs as a theme of our convention and keep on the watch.”
Jehovah Witnesses believe that while the apocalypse will be terrible for many, it will be the beginning of a better world for the faithful.
“The fighting against nations, we’re seeing more earthquakes, you can look at the swine flu, all this, and it just points to the things that shows we are getting very close to what we feel is the end,” Ferris said.
Going door-to-door with Bibles and informational packets has become a trademark for the Witnesses’, and Ferris said there’s a reason recruiting is such a major part of their religion.
“While we don’t relish the thought of destruction that’s going to take place, that’s why we feel so strongly about door-to-door work and warning people,” Ferris said. “If you knew a hurricane was coming, and you were the only one and you didn’t tell anybody, it would be on your shoulders.”
An interesting choice of venue, as most Christian denominations do not consider the JW’s to be a Christian group (because they deny the divinity of Christ).
The ‘leaky teepee’ was an arena with a minor league stadium next to it that was bought by the Jehovah Witnesses’ about twenty years ago. The shape of the roof and the fact that it always leaked on concerts and other events earned it the name “leaky teepee”.
My Memorial Day update :
Got a babysitter and went to the movies. The place was slammed, and we couldn’t get tickets to get into Star Trek because it was sold out. Went and saw X-men instead. However, there were only two people in front of us at the concession stand. Usually it’s a 5-10 minute wait to get through at the very minimum.
So, people like movies, but they’re not spending money for overpriced popcorn! (I rent, so I can splurge on popcorn.
)
Went to a couple of open houses. Not impressed. Saw one really nice house and knew the Realtor personally (our landlady) who was holding it open. Said there were too offers in, but not at list. Then said “Most people think like you do, and are offering 100k off of asking prices in this area.”
So I’m guessing they aren’t happy at their ‘multiple offer’ situation.
Yesterday I went to the huge outlet mall in Dallas for the first time since December. I was lucky to find a parking spot.
I bought 3 shirts for $6.99 ea. I would have shopped longer, but the crowds and lines at the checkout counters were as bad as Christmas time.
“So I’m guessing they aren’t happy at their ‘multiple offer’ situation.”
It’s definitely not the same when those multiple offers are below the asking price, not above. There’s no buyers frenzy. There’s no recovery. The bubble’s not coming back.
Bloomberg
May 26 (Bloomberg) — The fallout that has irradiated highly leveraged Western economies has started a King Kong versus Godzilla battle. per Niall Ferguson.
King Kong, in Ferguson’s parlance, represents the kind of deflation going on now. Economies from Japan to the U.K., in his estimation, will continue to shrink this year. The lone exceptions are China, India and Brazil. Godzilla is the wave of liquidity “pouring like a jet hose from central banks.”
Viewing the contracting countries as being mired in “slight depressions” for the time being, Ferguson says it’s only a matter of time before large government-bond investors start demanding higher yields — rates that “could put the brakes on economic recovery.”
I would go two steps further and say that so much government debt raining down on Western economies will not only trigger inflation, it signals the end of an epoch of excessive affluence. The age of McMansions with big-screen televisions in every room and two sport-utility vehicles in the driveway is over. Bad news for Starbucks Corp. and Neiman Marcus Group Inc. Good news for McDonald’s Corp. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
Nature of Beast
Ferguson says the Group of Seven countries will have to sell more than $4 trillion of debt to stimulate their economies and rescue financial-services companies.
“It’s hard to believe we won’t get back to inflation eventually,” he says. “But it won’t happen as quickly as pessimists fear.”
I agree with Ferguson that housing prices will fall further, particularly in the U.S. It will get worse as Congress and Barack Obama’s administration have been unable to curb the foreclosure rate.
A measure to allow homeowners to write down mortgage principal in bankruptcy was shot down in the Senate last month. Voluntary carrot-and-stick incentives through the Treasury Department will come up short.
“The peak of foreclosures has yet to come,” Ferguson adds. “They will go from 40 percent of all home sales to literally 100 percent by the end of the year.”
100% ??
“The peak of foreclosures has yet to come,” Ferguson adds. “They will go from 40 percent of all home sales to literally 100 percent by the end of the year.”
Coff coff…
It’s getting bad - but that seems a *little* drastic. So he’s presuming that new home sales will drop below their current ~500k record-low-plateau to zero?
No, he’s just saying that all new home sales will also be foreclosures
Surely not all! Even a total m*ron should be able to see that. Most perhaps but not all. I call BS on the 100% too.
I support the 100% prediction. Nobody will be able to compete with the foreclosure prices. The following year, too. And the one after that…
Also, I think we will be seeing more restructures of loans as time goes by.
Banks can either:
1. Foreclose on the $220k home (that is overleveraged), and resell for 20% less as REO; or
2. Write the note down to $220k and take an interest in a healthy share of any upside when the home is sold in the future.
They have been doing #2 with greater and greater frequency.
I think we will see an increasing rate of distress, but by the end of the year will see a falling foreclosure rate due to this effect.
Are you seriously telling me that if I buy a house in cash I will be foreclosed upon? (not that I will, this is a thought experiment.)
C’mon, man, use some common sense! I bet you there are some fairly delusional people buying houses with large downpayments. The foreclosure rate not gonna be 100%, that should be absurdly obvious.
Is he stating that 100 % of all home sales will be foreclosed upon, or is he stating that 100 % of homes sold in the future will be foreclosures ( those having already been foreclosed upon ) ? It’s not really clear.
Sounds pretty clear to me that he’s referring to the idea that all sales by the end of 2009 will be of already-foreclosed-upon homes, which is ludicrous.
For one - people underestimate the factor of home sales being driven by relocations - corporate, government, or military. Even in a down housing market - when your employer pays to move you lock-stock-and-barrel, but only if you sell your existing home and buy a new one, it’s often a no-brainer (or at least close to it).
No, he is saying that there will be 500k sales and 500k foreclosures. Yes, he appears to be claiming that all homes sold will be foreclosed. That will not happen. He has misspoken or been misquoted.
The number of foreclosures are not out of the realm of possibility. Remember, foreclosures are still rising because the resets take time to do their damage. For some people they never could really pay their mortgage. Others were just making it until the resets hit.
This will get interesting. BTW, I do not believe for a second that the economy will “reflate”. We may get inflation, but you cannot force people to borrow.
Roidy
Firm of ex-Countrywide boss files for $750 million IPO…
NEW YORK (Reuters) - PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust, an investment firm run by the former president of Countrywide Financial Corp, has applied to raise about $750 million in an initial public offering, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
PennyMac, which plans to operate as a real estate investment trust, according to the filing late on Friday, will buy residential mortgages held by homeowners behind on their payments. It plans on modifying the terms of their loans, making a profit by selling off those loans once their credit quality has risen and made them more valuable.
In the filing, PennyMac said Chief Executive Stanford Kurland, who was Countrywide’s chief operating officer until 2006, and other former Countrywide officers are defendants in a number of lawsuits PennyMac doesn’t expect to be named in but could still “adversely impact” it and provide unwanted publicity.
Countrywide, once the largest U.S. home lender, was faulted by regulators last year for feeding the housing bubble with loose lending standards and was bought by Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) last July for $2.5 billion after nearly collapsing.
PennyMac’s backers include asset manager BlackRock (BLK.N) and hedge fund Highfields Capital.
A number of deals by REITs have struggled to get off the ground during the current IPO slowdown. The last REIT to attempt an IPO, Madison Square Capital Inc (MDQ.N), shelved its planned $200 million deal in March.
PennyMac’s IPO will be underwritten by Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank and the firm has applied to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol PMT.
The filing did not specify the estimated timing of the IPO nor the number of shares to be offered and their price.
Wow! IPO’ed this quick?
Guess they’re gonna need the money for the lawyers later on.
Mozilo and company put petty criminals to shame. They raised the art of sucking wealth out of the society and to themselves (and their politicians) to an art form.
Raising mortgage loans in Russia hardly possible because of extortionate rates.
Front page / Business / Finance
21.05.2009 Source: Pravda.Ru
In April mortgage loan rates in Russia finally stopped rising. Actually it is difficult to imagine the rates to be higher than they are now. Even Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said that no one would take out a mortgage when the rate is higher than 20 percent.
Raising mortgahe loans in Russia hardly possible because of extortionate rates
The majority of Russians totally agree with the president and refuse to take out such mortgage loans. Today it has become very popular to blame the rising cost of credit resources and the West from where the mortgage crisis has come to Russia.
The present-day economic situation in Russia makes it almost impossible to think about raising any mortgage loan in Russia… however raising such a loan abroad sounds quite reasonable.
“Foreign banks have begun to check the candidates for mortgage loans more carefully, however in most cases it is much easier for Russian citizens to raise a mortgage loan in a Western bank than in a Russian bank. Moreover, Western mortgage loan rates look much more attractive than Russian rates,” say Julia Kainova, the head of the foreign department in real estate company Century 21 Beverlywood Realty.
Raising a mortgage loan for Russians is easiest in Spain. The annual mortgage rate in this case will be approximately 3,5 – 4 percent. As far as the documents are concerned, to raise such a loan Russians will have to provide their foreign passport and their earnings certificate.
Raising such a loan in the USA is a bit more difficult. The annual mortgage rates there are higher - 5 – 7 percent. However, the falling real estate prices have already made many Russians raise such loans. If you are ready to pay more than 40 percent of the real estate price, American banks will kindly provide you with a loan up to 20 years. And they won’t even check your credit history.
It is more difficult, but still quite real, to raise a mortgage loan in Italy and Greece. In Bulgaria and Turkey it is not a problem for Russians at all.
However, there are some exceptions, of course. It is extremely difficult for Russian people to raise a mortgage loan in Great Britain and France. In this case Russians will have to leave the property they already have in Great Britain and France as a pledge.
It is also difficult to raise a mortgage loan in Montenegro. The problem here is that this market is not developed there yet.
However, there is one very serious trap for those who have made up their minds to buy property abroad. The mortgage loan rates are usually floating in Europe and in the USA. It constantly changes depending on the interest rate.
The floating rate led to the mortgage crisis in the USA. That is why when raising a mortgage loan it is better to choose a fixed rate. It will be higher, but your monthly payments will always be the same.
The recent statistics shows that Russian people prefer buying real estate property in the following countries:
1. Bulgaria
2. Spain
3. The USA
4. Germany
5. Finland
It is extremely difficult for Russian people to raise a mortgage loan in Great Britain and France. In this case Russians will have to leave the property they already have in Great Britain and France as a pledge.
Well, maybe they’s got some acquaintance with Russians, is what this tells me. At least on the surface. Or maybe they’s just less stupid and can learn from observing history?
You know, this rather gives me hope, actually— the ‘less stupid’ part.
I’ve known a few Russians, and them guys is total savages. They only look like everyone else. They’re shaved wolves, is all, who put on some pants and know how to use a fork. Sometimes not even that.
We’ve had some weird transactions in the very high-end neighborhoods here in San Diego. Things like houses that have sat through multiple reductions over many months, then suddenly they raise the price by 50% (over the original list price) and it goes pending.
I’ve wondered if they were Mexican drug lords or Russians with all kinds of “dirty” money. The whole think stinks of money laundering, IMHO.
Or it could be just simple mortgage fraud. I would guess that to be the simpler explanation.
Top-Rated Commercial Mortgage Debt May Face Cuts
May 26 (Bloomberg) — The highest-graded bonds backed by commercial mortgages may be cut by Standard & Poor’s, potentially rendering the securities ineligible for a $1 trillion U.S. program to jumpstart lending.
As much as 90 percent of so-called super senior commercial- mortgage backed bonds sold in 2007 may be affected as the ratings firm changes how it assesses the debt, New York-based S&P said today in a report. About 25 percent of the bonds sold in 2005, and 60 percent of those sold in 2006 may be cut.
“We believe these transactions are characterized by increasingly more aggressive underwriting than prior vintages,” S&P said. “Furthermore, recent-vintage CMBS, particularly those issued since 2006, were originated during a time of peak rents and values,” and may be more affected by falling rents.
Cutting the ratings would exclude the securities from the Federal Reserve’s program to bolster credit markets by financing the purchase of older commercial real-estate debt. To be eligible for the program, collateral can’t carry a rating below AAA from any rating firm.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aY7QyIj5NUNE
“The highest-graded bonds backed by commercial mortgages may be cut by Standard & Poor’s, potentially rendering the securities ineligible for a $1 trillion U.S. program to jumpstart lending.”
Prediction: Some combination of Fed purchases of these commercial mortgage bonds and federal guarantees is on the way…
NYT
Brokers say that many sublandlords will probably need to bend over backward to sublease their space, given the sharp rise in vacancies.
In Midtown Manhattan, for example, 13 percent of prime, modern, well-located offices — which brokers often refer to as Class A space — was available in April, up from 6.5 percent a year earlier, according to Colliers ABR, a commercial real estate services company. And sublets now account for some 40 percent of the space available in Midtown, compared with 30 percent of the much smaller total that was available a year ago, the company said.
***
a year and a half ago, this space might have leased for $150 per square foot,” Mr. Sammons said, while he has heard of recent sublets in high-end buildings in this office corridor with annual rents of as little as $40 to $50 a r square foot. “This is the most remarkable turnaround in pricing that I’ve ever seen in such a short period of time.”
I received a $500 off coupon if I agreed to move to a building down the street (on the UWS.)
Still a lot of delusion floating around. Coupons for rents - OK!
Stating the obvious re previous Faster.
I would guess that most of Pussycat’s landlords would give him $500 to move somewhere else.
I think FPFF is just fine.
“I think FPFF is just fine.”
I second that.
I forgot to tell him that the other day even though we clashed a little on opinions and how to express them.
He brings good imput to HBB and has the brains and conviction to stand behind them.
That’s, for sure, is something that I don’t always do a lot of the time. Just saying.
I’m no expert on bankruptcy but it sounds ludicrous that Chrysler could be out of bankruptcy next week. A one-month bankruptcy for a company as large as Chrysler? Why does it take some similar size companies up to two years to move out of bankruptcy?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30948933
Because the government pushed it through…steamrolling some interested parties’ (assumed) rights.
Rancher had asked about Nina and her “Sitting Pretty” blog.
Looks like she retired from blogging last December, after claims that she made profits on all her flips.
http://www.blogger.com/profile/07073245192107488505
Oops, not Rancher, but diogenes asked about the “Sitting Pretty” blog. My original post is sitting in comment purgatory…
Don’t know if anyone has posted this or is even reading this this late in the evening, but anyone see John Mauldin’s site with all the charts that look like Rohrschack (sp?) tests.
Something about the LIbor is at 41 basis pts for the dollar and that is high but better. Better than what? 100?
Well I digress. The charts are like OP Art.
S.D. County housing prices still slipping but pace slows
By Roger Showley Union-Tribune Staff Writer
2:00 a.m. May 27, 2009
San Diego County housing prices continue to decline but at a slowing rate, the widely watched Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed yesterday.
In the index that measures paired prices paid for the same single-family homes over time, March prices in San Diego County were down 22.04 percent from year-ago levels. That’s a slight improvement from the 22.86 percent year-over-year slide in February and from the peak decline of 26.68 percent in October.
“Well, that’s good news,” said Leonard Baron, a part-time lecturer on real estate investment at San Diego State University.
Baron said the slowing slide reflects continuing demand for low-cost distressed properties.
For the second straight month, San Diego ranked as the eighth worst of 20 major U.S. markets in terms of price declines. In January, the region had the sixth worst year-over-year decline.
San Diego prices have dropped 42.3 percent from their peak in November 2005 and are back to where they were in July 2002, according to the Case-Shiller data. But they are still 45 percent above their level in January 2000.