The Housing Bubble

Good Morning HBBers!

Happy Saturday!

Leigh

Good morning everyone!!!!

I am saving money left and right. Does anyone have an opinion on gold or platinum? I am thinking of buying some pure coins or some of that bullion from Monex. Anyone know of a good dealer? I think the economy will get a little worse and platinum will rise. It used to be $2000 an ounce and it is now $1200. Plus, the coins look soooo neat! Any opinions? Plus, I am putting as much money under my matteress as will fit! Passbook savings from USAA is the way to go!

I’m also started saving EE and I bonds. I know they arent the best investment, but since I am 40 now, when I get 60, they will start maturing one a month. At least I wont go broke!

You have a webpage? Will they let you buy one ounce at a time and mail it to you? I am very interested in this….

Chile,

Kandahar stinks to high heaven as you know. That poop pond is an awful man-made creation! I never believed something could smell so bad!

The country is beautiful only in the morning before the 130+ heat and dust storms…..

And of course before the taliban want to play

Otherwise, it’s a paradise…LOL

Krugman Says No Signs of ‘V-Shaped’ Economic Recovery (Update1)
By Dara Doyle and Louisa Nesbitt

June 5 (Bloomberg) — Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said the world’s economy is showing “not a hint” of a “V-shaped” recovery marked by a swift decline and revival.

The economy is “stabilizing, not recovering,” Krugman, an economics professor at Princeton University in New Jersey, said today at a conference in Dublin. “Things are getting worse more slowly.”

Data this month showed that the contraction in Europe’s manufacturing and service industries is easing and confidence in the economic outlook is rising. The U.S. lost fewer jobs in May than forecast, a report today showed. The International Monetary Fund says its forecast for global growth of 1.9 percent next year is based on the premise of a healthy financial system.

“We have made the transition from sheer panic to chronic anxiety,” Krugman said, adding he’s has a “hard time” seeing what might drive a “full” economic recovery.

U.S. payrolls fell by 345,000 in May, the smallest decrease in eight months, after a revised 504,000 loss in April, the Labor Department said today in Washington.

The U.S. policy response to the economic crisis has been “extraordinarily aggressive,” Krugman said. “Unfortunately, it hasn’t been enough.” The country will need “some form of new taxes” to bring down its deficit, he added.

Service industries in the U.S. shrank at a slower pace in May while job losses mounted, indicating that any economic recovery will be slow to develop.

“The euro zone, like the United States, I fear, could be facing kind of a lost decade,” Krugman said.

CLEARWATER — Clerk of Court Ken Burke gave 39 employees pink slips Friday as spending cuts begin to pare the ranks of Pinellas County workers.

Another 40 employes lost their jobs in layoffs at Pinellas Business Technology Services this week. They were forced to immediately leave the county agency for security reasons.

On Monday, more than 200 additional employees will learn that they will lose their jobs by the fall in notices sent by County Administrator Bob LaSala.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/workinglife/article1007835.ece

“Unfortunately, it hasn’t been enough.” The country will need “some form of new taxes” to bring down its deficit

Why is it liberals think the only way to raise money is to TAX everything? Why not make money the old fashioned way? By making more EXPORTS. I.E. selling something??? Oh yea, the U.S doesnt make anything anymore….my bad…

I might just wait until platinum opens on the exchange today. It was falling yesterday…

Lots of Flooding in super luxury South beach……hope they have flood insurance great vid:

http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-267514

Ten Cities With Rising Home Values http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/ten-cities-with-rising-home-values.html

Think that no real estate market is safe? Believe it or not, there are cities where home values have held their own. Their economies are well diversified, and their population growth has been slow, keeping unemployment low and speculative building to a minimum.

Check out these ten cities that have seen an increase in median home value. Change in median home price is from the fourth quarter 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2008, which is the most recent data from Fiserv Lending Solutions, a home-price research company.

—-
Unintentionally funny.

After reading that list I can see why there was no bubble there.

Now Comes the Real Crash
By John Rosevear
June 4, 2009
The Motley Fool

Here’s the good news: The worst of the subprime mortgage carnage is behind us.

Here’s the bad news: That was just the tip of the iceberg. There’s probably much worse ahead.

Fool retirement guru Robert Brokamp recently sat down with noted value investor (and former Fool writer) Whitney Tilson to talk about his thoughts on the continuing mortgage crisis. In the interview — which appears in the new issue of the Fool’s Rule Your Retirement newsletter, available online at 4 p.m. EDT today — Tilson talks about where we currently stand in the mortgage crisis.
…
What, you thought things were stabilizing?

Tilson recently argued that the appearance of stabilization in the housing market is a “head fake,” caused by the usual spring surge in homebuying and a temporary reduction in the inventory of foreclosed homes sitting on the market. The crisis, Tilson says, is actually getting worse.

As Tilson sees it, although the worst of the losses suffered by speculators and subprime borrowers are over, problems with prime loans are just now starting to pick up steam. Many conforming prime loans are owned by Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac. But other mortgages will likely also prove problematic, including home equity lines and prime “jumbo” mortgages, as well as the scarier Alt-A and Option ARM loans.

Eeeek?

Why scarier? According to Tilson, nearly half of Alt-As and over 70% of Option ARMs are underwater. Alt-A resets are just starting to take off — they won’t peak until 2012 or 2013. And Option ARMs don’t just reset, they recast — borrowers go from making just interest payments, in many cases, to making full proper 30-year-amortized mortgage payments. Some could see their monthly payments increase by 60% or more.

And after that, commercial real estate could be the next problem area. That won’t just hit the property owners — REITs like mall giant Simon Property Group (NYSE: SPG) and New York-based heavyweight Vornado Realty (NYSE: VNO) — but will also impact regional banks such as Fifth Third (Nasdaq: FITB) and Regions Financial (NYSE: RF) that have heavy exposure to commercial real estate loans.
…

News from San Diego: Mission Bay.

I just returned from San Diego Shelter Island. A friend of mine wants to park his boat in a marina in Mission Bay. Every marina we visited has “openings” and every marina employee said “in this economy we have many open moorings”. Also, some marina employees said many new boats, 45-55 foot long have been reposed by the banks. A few years ago the marinas had no openings. One marina employee said he has never had this many openings since he has work there, about 8 years.

Also, the long distance charter boat business is very bad. Many captains said they cancel trips due to lack of bookings.

Good day to all!

What’s this? “When groups seek to undermine the U.S. currency system, the government is compelled to act,” said acting U.S. Attorney Edward Ryan of the Western District of North Carolina. The government crackdown on the so-called “Liberty Dollars” may backfire. The courts have historically avoided cases in which the legality of the debauched U.S. money system comes into judicial question, but this action in Asheville, NC might get out of hand. “Fraudulent Money?”

Ponder this: The Treasury Department contends that the value of four 1964 U.S. quarter-dollar coins is identical to four 1965 quarter-dollars. Should you present rolls of these coins from ‘64 and ‘65 for deposit at a bank they will be accepted at face value. Likewise, if you offer coins from each of these years as local, state, or federal taxes they will be accepted at face value.

Now comes the catch. The Treasury Department cannot make a distinction between its older silver coins and the later copper/nickel versions of the same denomination because it would blow the present fiat currency system to smithereens. Hence, the question never gets far in a court of law.

Answer this question: If the government will accept U.S. silver coins only at face value for payment of taxes, should you not be able to receive legal U.S. silver coins at face value? NO! The Treasury Department says if you receive, say, a $1.00 silver eagle coin in a transaction you must pay taxes on the metallic value, not the face value. Got it? A silver eagle is worth only a dollar if you pay taxes with it, but must be counted as worth more than $15.00 for tax purposes if you receive one as compensation. Why? Let’s hope the “Liberty Dollar” case finally pushes the question into court.

Ah, I’m so sorry I’m missing out on the joys of home ownership. I was already getting pretty depressed over not having a lawn to mow in 95 degree heat. Now, I’m missing out on the fun of going in to protest the increase in property taxes on my piece of the American Dream. Boo hoo.

http://www.statesman.com/business/content/business/stories/other/06/06/0606appraisals.html

One of the comments says

“The “Great American Dream” of owning your home has become “a nightmare” for many Americans.”

You don’t say? Ya know, I bet that’s not something that “experienced real estate agent” Vickie Goodwin ever mentions to her clients…

Suggested solution: Let the banks that threw money away into the deep blue sea go out of business, and start some new, more competitive banks that don’t throw away money. Bailing out fools is not a solution.

Commercial Real Estate — the Economy’s Anvil
By Stephen Gandel Friday, May. 29, 2009
store closing
James W. Porter / Corbis

Commercial real estate may soon bulldoze the green shoots.

A coming wave of defaults on loans to developers of condominiums, office buildings and malls could do significant damage to the already deflating economy. That was the overwhelming concern expressed at a public hearing of the Congressional Oversight Panel (COP) on Thursday that focused on corporate and commercial real estate lending.

The COP was set up last fall as part of legislation that gave the Treasury Department permission to spend $700 billion to rescue the nation’s ailing financial system. The panel, which is headed by Harvard Law professor Elizabeth Warren, has no legislative or official regulatory powers. It is supposed to monitor the Treasury’s spending and report back to Congress as to whether it is being effective in boosting lending and shoring up the financial sector.

Thursday’s hearing was one of a number of public forums the COP is hosting on different segments of the lending market. Warren is often criticized for being too critical of banks and their lending practices. But at the hearing on commercial real estate, Warren focused on how big a problem future loan defaults will be and what should be done about them.

She got an earful. Richard Parkus, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, said he thought two-thirds of all commercial real estate loans due in the next few years — hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth — could go bust. Jeffrey DeBoer, president of trade group the Real Estate Roundtable, fretted that problems in the lending business could cost the nation thousands more construction and real estate jobs. Next up, Congressman Jerrold Nadler of New York expressed worry that the country was headed for a lost decade of economic stagnation.

There were not many solutions offered. Nadler said he thought the government should create new banks, which, unencumbered by souring loans, would boost lending. Nadler said he thought private investors would be interested in helping fund the new banks. A number of the panelists thought the government’s TALF and PPIP programs meant to boost lending were helpful but not the answer. Parkus said he thought extending the terms of commercial loans set to default would only delay the problem and make it worse. As more and more bad loans pile up, he predicted, it will become progressively harder for any of them to get refinanced.

They aren’t making prime California properties any more, which makes the sale price of prime properties different. I am wondering if the writer meant to say “billiion” as $24 million would not amount to more than a small dent in a $20 bn+ budget deficit (roughly 0.1%, in fact).

Digital Journal
Arnold Schwarzenegger Selling Famous Landmarks to Erase Deficit
By Leo Reyes.
Published 3 hours ago by ■ Leo Reyes

The governor of California is planning to sell government buildings and famous landmarks to raise funds in order to erase the swelling budget deficit of the state of California.

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is proposing to sell popular California landmarks to erase some $24 million in budget deficit this year.

Some of the famous landmarks that are being targeted to raise funds include San Quentin State Prison, The Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum and the California State Fairgrounds, among others.

The Governor is also proposing to sell some other properties outright, sell office buildings and lease them back from the new landlords and lease some state lands to developers.

California taxpayers are opposing these proposals by the Governor saying that the timing is bad.’ How can California taxpayers get a good deal in this slumping real estate market?’ they asked.

Bur Fred Aguiar, the governor’s secretary of consumer services defended his boss saying that the properties mentioned cannot be compared to other commercial space because they are unique and sits on prime land. He said people will be surprised at the kind of prices that they will fetch.

Lower property values mean higher taxes

By JENNIFER SORENTRUE

Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Saturday, June 06, 2009

WEST PALM BEACH — If you think plummeting home values are going to save you money on your property tax bill this year, you might be in for a big surprise.

More than two years after Gov. Charlie Crist promised that property taxes would “drop like a rock,” many homeowners could actually see their tax bills increase.

That’s because local governments across the state are proposing tax-rate increases to recoup the revenue lost as a result of the housing market meltdown.

Long-time property owners who have been shielded from years of soaring taxes by 1992’s Save Our Homes amendment would be the hardest hit.

Although Palm Beach County property values fell by 13.5 percent last year, most homesteaded owners will not get any break on their appraisals. Under state rules, if a homesteaded property’s market value remains higher than the assessed value, then Property Appraiser Gary Nikolits is required to increase the assessed value. This year that increase will be 0.1 percent.

That slight increase, coupled with higher tax rates, would erase the savings many homeowners have seen over the last two years as a result of state-mandated and voter-approved property tax cuts.

“There are going to be a lot of very unhappy people this year,” Nikolits said. “They are going to scratch their heads and wonder how that is possible.”

But not everyone will see an increase.

Owners of commercial property and homesteaded owners whose market value has fallen below the assessed value could see their tax bills fall under the county’s budget proposal, depending on how much their property values declined.

Based on the preliminary property values that Nikolits released last month, County Administrator Bob Weisman is recommending that the countywide tax rate rise from about $3.78 to $4.37 for each $1,000 of taxable value - a 15.6 percent increase that would generate about the same tax revenue that the county collected last year.

Under the proposal, the owner of a $250,000 home with a $50,000 homestead exemption would pay about $875 in county taxes next year, up about $119 from this year’s bill.

That figure does not include what property owners pay to the school board, city governments and other taxing authorities.

But many of the county’s 38 municipalities, some of which have seen their tax bases erode by more than 20 percent, will have no choice but to consider similar rate hikes, Nikolits said.

“They either have to cut their budgets or they have to increase their tax rates,” Nikolits said.

Weisman stresses that the rate increase is not an overall tax hike, since it will only enable the county to collect about what it did last year.

“Some people’s taxes are dropping,” Weisman said. “Those are the people whose taxes went up the most the past five years. Even people who are homesteaded will still be paying less taxes than they did two or three years ago.”

Even with the tax rate increase, County officials are still facing a budget shortfall of about $60 million.

County commissioners will discuss Weisman’s budget proposal at 9:30 a.m. Monday at the county’s headquarters, 301 N. Olive Ave., West Palm Beach.

The only glimmer of good news this year, Weisman said, is that the tax inequity that many argue the Save Our Homes amendment created is starting to vanish.

When property values were soaring, the state’s Save Our Homes amendment cap limited increases in assessed values of homesteaded homes to no more than 3 percent a year. That limited the tax increases of such properties. while those without homestead protection faced big increases in their assessments and taxes and the county saw double-digit increases in its tax base.

Now, with property values declining, the gap between the market values and assessed values of homesteaded properties is closing. And as that happens, the disparity in taxes between owners of commercial and rental properties and those who have homestead exemptions will lessen, Weisman said.

“The positive thing for the tax system about this circumstance it that it is eliminating the imbalance between the long-term homesteaded and the non-homesteaded property,” Weisman said. “While it is painful right now, in the future years that will be a good thing.”

(throws down laptop) ALRIGHT, SPAM FILTER- LET’S TAKE THIS OUTSIDE!!!

The claims about low CA inventory are a sham, given the large shadow inventory of bank-owned homes. With the humongous shadow inventory of bank-owned homes not yet on the market, unemployment over 10 percent and a formidable gauntlet of option ARM resets and recasts scheduled through 2012, I am wondering how these bottom callers can so confidently predict that California housing prices are at the bottom?

And regarding what inning we are in, I note that in the early-1990s recession, California was in maybe the second inning towards the end of the recession (March 1991), and job losses are still increasing. I further note that serial bottom callers kept predicting a bottom one-year out throughout the duration of the early-1990s bust.

Real Estate News
May 28, 2009, 12:21PM EST
Is California Real Estate Near a Bottom?

Tighter inventory and two consecutive months of home-price gains suggest it might be, but unemployment fears remain a factor

By Prashant Gopal

California was one of the first states to enter the housing downtown. Could it be one of the first to recover?

First-time home buyers and investors are jumping to take advantage of state and federal tax incentives, low interest rates, and prices that are more affordable than they have been in many years. California’s median home price climbed in April on a monthly basis for the second straight month. That hasn’t happened since August 2007, the California Association of Realtors reported on May 28. Home sales in April rose 49% compared with April 2008.

The most promising sign of stabilization is the strikingly low inventory of unsold homes—well below the historical average. It would now take 4.6 months to deplete the state’s supply of unsold houses at the current sales pace. Supply was as high as 16.6 months in January 2008, and the long-term average for the state is about seven months.

The median price for a single-family home in California was $256,700 in April, down 36.5% from a year earlier but 1.4% higher than the previous month, according to the California Association of Realtors. Other states aren’t faring as well. Inventory levels in Arizona and Nevada remain high. And Florida’s supply of unsold homes is two or three times normal levels, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine, Calif.
tens of thousands of foreclosures expected

Despite the positive signs, California faces a bumpy road to recovery. Unemployment is still rising, foreclosures are expected to accelerate in coming months, and the luxury market is weak not only because jumbo loans are expensive and difficult to get approved but also because few buyers are willing or able to take a risk on pricey properties. Even the California Association of Realtors&mda—which is saying prices are likely close to the bottom—expects some additional pressure on prices as tens of thousands of foreclosed properties enter the market later this year.

But home prices, which have fallen more than 50% from their peak in some areas of the state, probably won’t fall as far or as fast, said Delores Conway, director of the University of Southern California Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast. “There are a lot of headwinds, but we have tailwinds as well,” Conway said. “If we were in a normal economy, we’d be fine. The problem is, this is still not a normal economy, and there’s still a lot of uncertainty out there.”

Mark Goldman, a mortgage broker and lecturer in real estate at San Diego State University, says the bottoming of the California market might feel a bit like a rough airplane landing. “Imagine the runway as the theoretical bottom of the market,” he says. “I’m confident we’re near a bottom,” Goldman adds. “But nobody knows we’ve hit a bottom until we’ve passed it.”

San Diego, which was one of the first bubble markets to burst, now is one of the tightest markets in the state. It had only a three-month supply of unsold homes in April, according to the California Association of Realtors, which ranked California counties for BusinessWeek.com, based on the tightest inventory levels. Other tight markets include Sacramento County and Riverside/San Bernardino counties (in Southern California’s Inland Empire), which also have less than four months of inventory.

California’s $10,000 tax credit for new buyers

Peter Toner, a Realtor at Prudential California Realty in San Diego, says luxury homes are lingering on the market, but properties listed for less than $400,000 are selling quickly. In many cases, these are also homes that are selling at a steep discount.

“You’ve got people making multiple offers on multiple properties because they’re eager to acquire something,” Toner says. “Anything that can be bought right away—like a foreclosure or a seller who has a home that is properly presented and isn’t underwater—they’re hot to trot.”

California has some advantages over other states that were also ravaged by the housing slump. Construction in the state’s coastal areas was fairly limited during the boom and—unlike Florida and Nevada—builders focused on single-family homes rather than condos, resulting in fewer new housing units. And California, despite its economic problems, has a diverse job market, natural beauty, top schools, cultural depth, and great weather.

Moreover, in March the state also began offering a $10,000 tax credit for buyers of new homes. That’s in addition to the federal government’s $8,000 credit for first-time buyers. Buyers now feel a sense of urgency to take advantage of the programs before they end, says Lisa Marquis Jackson, a vice-president at John Burns Real Estate Consulting.

“I don’t think there’s a fear [among buyers] of home prices falling a whole bunch more,” Jackson says. “Now the fear is if you’re going to have a job or not.” John Burns, president of the firm, says he expects San Diego to lead the way in recovery. But California’s not out of the woods. “We’re probably in the seventh inning of the downturn,” Burns says. “Sales volumes are increasing, and supply is coming down, but until job growth returns, we probably don’t see prices stabilizing.”

To show exactly how crazy the anti-abortion crowd is, they even protested Dr. Tiller’s funeral. Think about that. The guy is murdered by one of their supporters, and to show how sorry they are, they protest the guys own funeral.

These people are scum.

test

Hey Mr. Bear, what if they got the impact location slightly wrong…like say a error of about -40 miles North? :–)

China has lately discovered a small error in their x1 child policy due to earthquakes…perhaps “The O.C.” might have a similar error in having all their housing valued at $650,000+

New video shows theoretical quake slamming O.C.:

http://sciencedude.freedomblogging.com/2008/11/12/new-video-shows-theoretical-quake-slamming-oc/7464/

I guess if so many reporters say housing is undervalued now, then it must be true? And if it is undervalued now, just imagine how very, very undervalued it will get when interest rates revert to historic norms. I am expecting the current wave of investor-knifecatchers to get flushed down the toilet at about that point.

SPECIAL REPORT Road to Rescue
Most over- and under-valued housing markets
Low prices bring investors back into many markets.
By Les Christie (CNNMoney.com)
Last Updated: June 4, 2009: 12:58 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Home price declines have sent affordability soaring. Prices have fallen so far that the average U.S. home is now undervalued by 12.2%, according to a new report from IHS Global Insight.

“The good news is that the declines are happening as consumer confidence is rising and housing sales and [building] starts seem to be bottoming out,” said Jeannine Cataldi, senior economist for IHS in a statement accompanying the study.

“The bad news is that job losses continue at high rates, housing inventories are still elevated and consumers, while becoming somewhat more confident, are still wary in the face of economic uncertainty.”

High unemployment and surging l-t interest rates are a potent force against a housing recovery.

LA Times
Money & Company
Tracking the Market and Economic Trends that Shape Your Finances

Interest rates soar on jobs data, putting housing at risk
11:38 AM, June 5, 2009

The Treasury bond market is in cardiac arrest today over the May employment report: Yields are soaring, dealing another blow to investors who’ve been hiding out in government bonds — and threatening another big jump in mortgage rates.

If rising home loan rates price more buyers out of the market, sellers will have to respond by cutting asking prices. Anyone have a better idea?

The 10-year T-note yield has surged to 3.84% from 3.71% on Thursday. The 2-year T-note has rocketed to 1.25% from 0.96%. Yields now are the highest since mid-November.

More evidence on the debate over whether the Fed is part of government or is rather a private bank posing as a government agency for politically expedient reasons: They hire lobbyists. What other government agency hires lobbyists to lobby THE GOVERNMENT???

It seems somehow appropriate that they found someone who used to work for Enron…

The Wall Street Journal
* JUNE 6, 2009

Fed to Hire Lobbyist as Overhaul Push Looms

By DAMIAN PALETTA

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve is close to appointing a veteran Washington lobbyist to a senior role as the Obama administration prepares to ask Congress to redraw the central bank’s powers.

Linda Robertson, a former top aide at the Treasury Department during the Clinton administration, is expected to start at the Fed in July. She has been a lobbyist at Johns Hopkins University since 2002, where she was most recently a vice president for government affairs. At the Fed, she would lead the congressional-affairs team.

Ms. Robertson had a brief stint on the lobbying team at Enron Corp., but spent eight years in the Clinton administration where she worked closely with then-Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers as well as his predecessors, Lloyd Bentsen and Robert Rubin.

Just wait until rising l-t interest rates and falling prices serve to wrest the shadow inventory of 500,000+ homes out of the banks’ clutches and onto the market. You ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

New Business June 4, 2009, 5:00PM EST
Foreclosure: Now an Upscale Blight

Rising job losses and falling home prices are dragging down people who never dreamed they would get in trouble

By Peter Coy
BW Magazine

With the U.S. economy and financial markets showing signs of life, optimistic analysts are looking for a recovery in the all-important housing sector. They got some ammunition on June 2 from the National Association of Realtors, which said that its Pending Home Sales Index jumped in April by the most in more than seven years.

But housing can’t revive as long as the market is being flooded with homes that are falling into foreclosure. And far from going away, the problem is broadening. It’s not just about subprime anymore. Now, people with excellent credit who never dreamed of getting in financial trouble are being dragged down by a dangerous cycle of rising unemployment and falling home prices. That is going to prolong the foreclosure crisis and, inevitably, inhibit the recovery of the rest of the economy.

Any illusion that prime loans would emerge unscathed was shattered by a May 28 report from the Mortgage Bankers Assn. “For the first time since the rapid growth of subprime lending, prime fixed-rate loans now represent the largest share of new foreclosures,” the bankers said. The grime in prime was responsible for the worst performance on record for the U.S. mortgage sector in the first quarter: Nearly 13% of loans were delinquent or in foreclosure, the most since the bankers started keeping tabs in 1972. The problems were worst in the bubble states of California, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada.

“Nearly 13% of loans were delinquent or in foreclosure, the most since the bankers started keeping tabs in 1972. The problems were worst in the bubble states of California, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada.”

Good thing these are all small population states -); California is BK, and I believe all states combined account for 12% of GDP. Consumers are what, about 70%? I am noticing there is less crap about “green shoots” in the MSM, though. Can’t wait to hear the spin when the Q3/Q4 “recovery” fails to materialize…

Is anyone in the market for a high-end foreclosure home? ForeclosureTown dot com lists 196 of them for Rancho Santa Fe (92067), on the range from $475,000 to $14,000,000, with a median list price of $2,990,000. In case you like that median price point, there is plenty of selection, with three homes listed at exactly that price, and another nine listings at $2,995,000 ($5000 more = a few pennies to a rich buyer).

If buying off ForeclosureTown is beneath your dignity, there are 302 single family homes on the MLS for 92067, marketed at list prices between $950,000 and $35,000,000, with a median list price of $3,399,000. Assuming the sellers have listed their homes at fair market value (Hah!), the total value of these homes currently on the market is upwards of 302*$3,399,000 ~= $1 bn. And since they are selling at a rate of maybe 10 homes per month, there is roughly a 40 month (400/10) supply, not counting shadow inventory that we don’t yet see.

Hey Ben, Mr Bear is scaring everyone again! Is it “sweeps week” for the coveted Golden Bear “Eeyore Award” or what?

His new 2009 release (not the archives project) is dedicated, seemingly, to….. cars. Might be a Dodge anthem in there somewhere.

This is the coolest article I’ve read in a while:

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2009/06/06/lear_jet_repo_man/index.html

I have a question for you guys. I know a couple trying to sell their house FSBO in Saratoga, CA. It’s in the cheaper part of Saratoga bordering Campbell. Zillow says it’s worth $866,000. They are asking $1,188,000 and haven’t come down a penny in 364 days on the market. The house is sitting empty since they moved out into a rental a year ago. The husband, unemployed since 1999, appears unwilling to face the present reality.

How should I approach giving them some helpful advice?

You can read WSJ subscriber articles for free and it is legal.

I tried it and it works 

http://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-read-the-wsj-for-free-online-2009-6

Thanks to Tyler Durden of ZeroHedge.

Howdy, droogies, how you being this Saturday eve?
It seems like a fitful and chancy and unrestful night to me, but maybe that’s because a storm seems to be setting up to blow in off of Totten Inlet, so that the tops of the tall trees are starting to churn and bend. That always makes me a bit levitatey and twitchy.

Plus I fell out of a new tree I tried to climb and I about busted my right arm this afternoon. I swear, I felt the little bone in the front bend a bit; is that the radius thingie or the ulna thingie? The one that moves the thumb. I never can remember, but I bet I will be paying lots of attention when I try to drive myself to the hospital while all my arm bones clash together.

That stupid tree! I’m gonna kick its barky butt! NO tree’s gonna resist THIS lemur evolutionary off-shoot and my long digits! I’m gonna climb to the top* and sit there swaying back and forth, singing triumphant songs and everything!

Oh, yeah….in an effort to make this germane and relevant to the HBB, I will tell you all that today when I drove down Steamboat Island Road I saw a bunch of new ‘for sale’ signs pointing off onto various roads. These were new ones, set enticingly next to the ones that have been there for months, that are now leaning over in a tired fashion and getting a bit mossy loooking.
Maybe we had a new REtard seminar/clean-up party! After all, a new fresh sign will lure in the eager bidders, right? Right?
Yeah…that’ll work. Just think positively. That’s alllll you need….
BWAHAHAHAAH!

*As soon as I have the use of 5 limbs back.

Must… not… drink… and post…

I find it bizarre that the FDIC chief is playing politics with respect to which banking CEOs survive and which do not. Too bad we cannot have a well-regulated banking system, including a rule of law with transparency and proper regulatory enforcement, so that Mr Market can do a proper job of picking which CEOs to dump and which to keep around. Leave communism for the communist countries.

Financial Times
Regulator expects bank chiefs to lose jobs
By Francesco Guerrera and Nicole Bullock in New York
Published: May 16 2009 00:10 | Last updated: May 16 2009 00:10

A US regulator on Friday predicted that chief executives and directors of some of the banks that underwent the stress tests could lose their jobs, in another sign of the government’s desire to have a say in the running of bailed-out companies.

Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, said the authorities could replace management and boards at some of the 10 banks that were ordered to add fresh capital after the tests.

“Management needs to be evaluated,” she told Bloomberg television. “Is this the right skill set? Have they been doing a good job? Are there people who can do a better job?”

Asked whether some chief executives and directors would be replaced when banks present their capital-raising plans in the next few weeks, she said: “Yeah, I think there will be an evaluation process. We’re requesting it as part of the capital plan.”