Bits Bucket For June 17 2009
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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DC seems to be flattening out…
Don’t worry. It’s just the latest lull due to government programs and the spring buying season. Remember that you have resets to look forward to.
Firm I work for, metal services, had zero, repeat, zero orders this AM; normally 25-30, 10-15 in these recent slow times, ZERO today. Several workers in lunchroom discussing selling their homes, another worker laughs and comments that, because of their neighborhood, the government would have to buy it. They it
just might. Notice on bulletin board: meeting next week, mandatory attendance, no pto, no sicks, no vacation allowed.
Artist: Gary U.S. Bonds
Song Lyrics: Out Of Work
————————————————
Eight AM Im up and out
Feet beatin on the sidewalk
Down at the unemployment agency
All I guess for
I check the want ads
But there just aint nobody hirin
Whats a man supposed to do
When hes down and out of work
I need a job
Im out of work
Im unemployed
Im out of work
I need a job
Im out of work
I go to pick my girl up
Her name is Linda Brown
Her Dad invites me in
He tells me to sit down
The small talk that were makin
Is goin pretty smoothe
But then he drops a bomb
Son whatta ya do ?
Im out of work
I need a job
Im out of work
Im unemployed
Im out of work
I need a job
Im out of work
Yeah yeah yeah
Hey Mr President
I know youve got the plans
Youre doin all you can now
To help the the little man
Weve got to do our best
To whip that inflation down
Maybe youve got a job for me
Just drivin you around
These tough times theyre enough to
Make a man lose his mind
Up there youve got a job
But down here below
Im out of work
I need a job
Im out of work
Im unemployed
Im out of work
I need a job
Im out of work
Im out of work
Im out of work
Im out of work
Im out of work
Im out of work
Im out of work
Im out of work
Im out of work
Yes, but aren’t you out of work because you’re too picky? Forgive me if I’m wrong, but I’d wait tables if I had to; and lie about my expertice if necessary.
LOL! You sound like someone who has had his head in the sand over the last year. With 350,000 layoffs last month, and the credit crunch bringing consumer spending to a near halt…most restaurants are on the verge of closing up…not hiring 350,000 new waiters…because hardly anyone is eating out anymore.
But… but what about the “green shoots?!”
I thought in New Economy, The One would pay for our heating bills, our gas, our car, etc…. right?
(Full disclosure: I support no main political party, especially those who want to use my money for Bailouts.)
Referring to home prices? I definitely see that here in the outer burbs of Loudoun county as well, compared with last year. Median prices are rising some actually. Looks like a somewhat normal spring bounce actually.
It doesn’t surprise me, given many factors:
- Prices have come down about 40% off-peak here (nominal)
- So much of the new federal spending flows through this area
- The various stimulus (e.g. 8k tax credit) are having some effect
I do think that prices will still come down some more here long-term, in inflation-adjusted terms at least - but that there is a definite flattening. For-sale inventory is still somewhat high, but way below where it was at the peak of the bubble. Though I’m sure there’s a large shadow inventory still out there. Also of note is that sale price percentage is still quite low - 93% or so vs. the normal 97%.
outer burbs may be leveling off but close or inside the beltway are still dropping.
According to one local RE Agent, 50% of the homes in Loudoun Co are “underwater” & can’t sell for what they owe. if they have to seel, they are becoming accidental Landlords 7 not even listing
I see several neighborhood tricking in low-priced Short Sales (Lansdowne, Cedar Crest, South Riding)
I DON”T see any price increases? The high end in LoCo is just sitting with 16 Months on inventory on the Market..
8K will help the first timers, but does little to move the McMansion Market in LoCo - heck 8K on a house for 800K isn’t even a drop in the bucket
duh- sorry for all the spelling errors!!
I haven’t looked at specific properties, just median SFH price. This may indeed be misleading data, e.g. if a higher volume of smaller units are selling or such. Key is though is that it’s counter to the recent trend at least - e.g. last year there was no spring bounce like this - it just continued on down.
Second column is median price; last column is 4-month rolling average, to smooth out the bumps.
May-08 351k 358.8
Jun-08 359k 354.5
Jul-08 350k 352.5
Aug-08 335k 348.8
Sep-08 320k 341.0
Oct-08 310k 328.8
Nov-08 305k 317.5
Dec-08 310k 311.3
Jan-09 288k 303.3
Feb-09 294k 299.3
Mar-09 310k 300.5
Apr-09 315k 301.8
May-09 324k 310.8
Packman-
I am no statistician (and probably spelled it wrong as well)
I watch specific, higher-end (jumbo) properties in LoCo & Haymarket and I can tell you , not a lot is moving.
However, condos & townhouses (lower end) & SFH under 500K ( that Buyers lowball down into the 400’s ) are moving this Spring. I would credit this to the 8K credit.
Also, new homes under 500K are selling - I work in an industry that is involved with new homes Sales and business is up this Spring. But not in the high end, only the low end.
I also think that the Interest rate increase will slow things to a grinding halt here pretty soon too
I have a pal in the Title Bus & he says they have slowed to a crawl with closings in the last 2 weeks
I have been hearing the same thing.. but coming from the fact that rates have gone up and the little lift in refi is over…
Out west here. I also have a pal in the Title and Escrow business. According to him/her open escrows took a 40% dive in the last 2 weeks as a result of higher interest rates.
Thanks for the info shelby.
It makes sense that the 8k credit would have a bigger impact on lower-priced houses, since it’s a bigger percentage gain, and it follows then that this would mean that a higher percentage of sales are low-end as you say. However that also even moreso points to prices actually increasing some, if the median price is increasing. If prices were flat, and if a higher percentage of sales are lower-end, then median prices would be falling; thus if median are rising this to me would indicate that real prices are rising (at least temporarily) would it not?
I definitely agree the rise in rates will slow things down a lot, and serve to drive prices down as well. This hasn’t hit the monthly stats yet since the high rates have only been in June so far. It’ll be interesting to see what things look like next month when June numbers start to come out - e.g. especially the national housing starts number. Actual sales numbers will lag by an additional month or so since people usually lock in rates a month or so before closing.
$8K is the cap. It’s 10% of the purchase price, up to an $8K credit. It is not $8K. Form 5405. Misinformation by the REIC and the media by design.
Misinformation by the REIC and the media by design
Yeah, what about all those truth in advertising laws? Isn’t there some part of the gov’t that takes complaints/pursues these things?
Doesn’t that make it $8K for any house priced at more than $80K? Not many houses are priced at less than $80K, at least not in a desirable state (using both the political and condition meanings of the word “state.”)
Not only that - if you are buying a house that costs anywhere near $800k, then your income is high enough to where the stimulus is probably phased to the degree where you get next to nothing.
I thought $800,000 price was a “starter home” in NoVa?
Okay, maybe I’m pushing it a bit… more like $500,000 to $600,000 - whatever is high enough so people can’t actually afford to buy the place.
Tax. Credit.
They are calling the bottom down here in Norfolk / Virginia Beach VA. Of course, housing is still way up from 2001. For Rent signs everywhere.
In our San Diego neighborhood (Rancho Bernardo 92127), I have not seen any For Sale signs so far this year! However, there are a number of places with “For Lease” signs out front. (Leasing sounds so much more upscale than renting, no?)
Yea, that’s why Realtors lease their Benz then dump on renters for renting their houses.
Are you seeing many of the homes that double up? First it was for sale, now there are two signs, one for sale and one for rent?
I’m seeing quite a number of such “opportunities” here in Tucson. And, on the eastern Pennsylvania front, my mother is seeing quite a few houses that toggle back and forth between being for sale and for rent.
Please don’t buy anybody on this blog. The market lows have not hit yet except maybe for downtown Detroit. Wait at least one year for a true buyer’s market. This blog’s main purpose should be a support group to prevent early buying.
Man, if I could buy anyone on this blog it would be Oly.
Probably couldn’t afford her.
Plus sometimes she bites.
Houston, TX.
Sales down, but prices up.
Foreclosures slowing, but still high.
Unemployment below national average, but still high.
Still clueless.
Yes, but asking prices in town still way high. Lots of inventory. I see stuff that has been sitting for 9 months - 1 year. Guess they’re not going to give it away. Sen. Max Bachus who is supposed to head health care reform just bought a house at 717 North Carolina Ave, SE It had been sitting on the market for over a year for about $1 Million. Previous owners / flippers paid about $1 million in 2007. Put some money in it. Way overpriced. Hope he’s better at health care reform than real estate.
Have not seen the sale price Bachus paid.
Though he’s a older fellow so probably buying to live in /retire and not concerned about price.
Maryland, NoVa, and DC will be the last places to return to sanity (at least from a housing price viewpoint - nothing can fix the rest of the insanity in these regions.) This is because “everyone is rich” in this area of the nation, money falls from trees, minimum wage is $100,000 a year, etc. More importantly, this part of the nation is full of government workers and people who will gladly pay half their income or more to live in a McMansion 30+ miles from work since they think they are rich even when they are not.
Rant on…
I just got called for jury duty. If your employer doesn’t pay for your jury duty (and most don’t, although they should be required to, IMHO), you’re on your own. You get paid the princely sum of $15.00 for the first three days and $30.00 for each day after that. What a joke. I’ve seen how these slick lawyers blow smoke up the azz of jurors, telling them how they are the most important part of system.
Yeah, right, everyone else but the defendants and plaintiffs get paid the big bucks for being there: the attorneys, the judge, the bailiff, the court reporter, etc. The jurors have to deal with lost wages, care of family, gas, etc. It’s actually an insult and shows how much citizen jurors are REALLY valued.
rant off
Just think of it as your duty as a citizen of your state. You can’t expect to get paid lots of money for everything. I think thats one of the problems with this country. Everyone thinks they should get paid lots of money just for showing up.
If it’s one of those tort-y kinda things just say extremely intelligent things, and either the plaintiff or the defendant’s legal team (whichever has the weakest case) will reject you.
It’s how it works. They don’t want smart people there.
They don’t want smart people there.
And that is why the European practice of having cases tried before real, experienced and credentialed judges is superior to our “jury of one’s peers” who are, all too often, no such thing.
I gotta jump in here as I was just involved in this process as a representative of a plaintiff class (class action) and we got a verdict in our favor. Our case was a little complex but fortunately we had nine jurors who were all clearly above average in intelligence, and thank God for that. They listened and they understood that the defendants were very wrong. Took them less than two hours to return a verdict after hearing nine days of testimony. We knew going in that the defendants were going to try to seat a couple of idiots and then bamboozle them. It might have worked, but we (the plaintiffs) knew after jury selection that we were looking very good as these were educated and discerning Americans. I can’t thank those nine people enough as my career and the careers of 1800 other America West pilots hung in the balance.
Yeah, well, the people who have a stronger claim try to hire the smartest people. The opposite side has precisely the opposite strategy.
If you want to get out of it, dazzle the weakest side with your intelligence. They’ll veto you. That’s a clear-cut strategy too!
First time I was called I was asked what I do for a living (programmer/analyst). They asked a few followup questions about whether or not I deal with fine details. I was not selected.
Second time I was asked similar questions but I was selected. So, I’m batting .500 on selection.
I believe Kansas restricts the number of “declines” each side gets, so there’s a decent chance the jury will contain people unwanted by at least one side.
Funny, I had the exact same experience in the same state.
I was very delighted to be paid $14 for one day of jury duty in PA, because it helped to establish my claim of residing there, hence my entitlement to pay the PA 3% income tax instead of either the Maine 8% or the Calif 9%. So I sat there in the jury pool thinking I was making fifteen dollars a minute. Of course if I had a real job I’d be irked like Palmy.
az_lender,
Oh, well, good to hear it worked out for ’somebody’?
I’m glad Palmy brought it up. Oh and btw the def’s and plaint’s -stand- to gain ( or lose ) big too. In the end it’s like signing up for “the Reserves”. After years of being out, I went back ‘in’ ( hoping against hope ) that things had changed.
In the end, it’s the F/T guys that ‘count’ even though they’ll insist YOU are the whole reason they are there! LOL!
The duty argument is BS IMHO … it is my duty not to harm others. It is not my duty to endure undue coercion from a clearly biased/unjust system (served twice on a jury) that I already am forced to financially support without proper representation!!! Take take take take take give take take take rape take and give seems to be the new motto of the federal state for those who actually are productive.
“You can’t expect to get paid lots of money for everything.”
Oh, for freakin’ cryin’ out loud! What an asinine statement. All I want is to be paid what I’m losing out on for the day and it is not all that much, I can tell you. As for my “duty” as a citizen of the state, I used to take that quite seriously. I don’t, anymore, now that I’ve seen what the highly paid officials of our state get receive to eff it up for the rest of us. Hey, Tampa Bay, how’s about that reservoir we’re gonna pay twice for, LOL!
On the other hand, as a citizen who might one day be in need of a fair trial, I’ll suck it up. I wouldn’t be so pissed if lawyers didn’t pander to jurors and tell them how important they are. Big buncha BS. Put it in my wallet if you mean it.
I’m sure this sense of “duty” will work wonderfully when it comes to paying the bills.
Companies should be required to pay to cover time off from jury duty since nobody in their right mind WANTS to serve on a jury, especially when they get paid an amount that might have been useful in, oh… 1913 or so.
never had to do this so I’m not sure about the process…
But I would say something overtly racist at whatever I thought was the first opportunity to be “dismissed”.
Gotten called for JD every year and every year I don’t get picked.
Must’ve been the Constitution sticking out of your pocket, that “intelligent” glint in your eye, or the “Don’t Tread On Me” t-shirt.
Palmy,
I got called for jury duty for next Tuesday. Could have gotten out of it because of the knee surgery, but I was told that if you ask for a delay the next time you get a much lower “call number” so you end up actually having to go instead of having a good chance of simply not having to show up based on a phone call the night before. If my number gets called, I’ll just have to figure out a way to get there. I have an automatic, so I could always drive with my left foot if needed.
I’ll give you a hint my dad used back when MA had jurors stay in the pool for a whole month. Most of the time, he brought work with him and didn’t want to get picked for a jury. Those days he wore a very conservative suit (navy pin stipe with vest is the one I remember), white dress shirt, red tie. Classic 80’s power suit. Never got put on a jury in that outfit. Never.
Once, he didn’t have any work that he could do in the jury room, so he dressed down - slacks, pink oxford, sweater vest, bow tie. Got put on the next jury he got called for.
Speaking well and formally will go a long way to get you out of any trials as Faster said. Dressing the part of a hard -ss provides the first impression that you confirm with your words. Go for it.
I just got done with jury duty. There must be some reason why we’re all being picked around the same time. Upsurge in criminal and civil cases at the onset of summer?
We got paid $30/day regardless of whether we were there 10 minutes or 6 hours.
I’ve had knee surgery & done jury duty, but not in the same time frames. There’s no way I would serve on a jury until I had completely recovered from the knee surgery. It’s not good to sit around for long periods of time with a healing knee, it really needs to keep moving in order to heal. YMMV.
Thanks for the warning, but I have about zero chance of actually getting picked, so it can’t really be more than one day. I’ll live.
Thanks, polly. I look like what they want, but don’t sound like it, if that makes any sense.
Once, he didn’t have any work that he could do in the jury room, so he dressed down - slacks, pink oxford, sweater vest, bow tie. Got put on the next jury he got called for.
That’s dressing down?
Wow. When IIII dress down, like for ‘casual Fridays’, I wear some mud, decoratively applied house-paint and some feathers. If I’m in the woods, also some sturdy shoes, but that’s gettin’ mighty fancy.
Oh, and yeah—and a bowtie.
Your dad and I have that in common when we dress down.
(This IS Olympia, you know.
)
I never get picked either. I’m a lawyer and an engineer and a gun-nut (I have my own FFL). Too bad. Now that I’m retired it would be fun to sit on juries. Last time I was on a jury (pre-law-school days) I became the foreman and convinced the slackers to go with a guilty verdict.
Just Remember that when you are on trial your fate will be decided by twelve people who were to dumb to avoid jury duty.
I keep hopping around going “Pick Me! Pick Me!!”, but I must have “jury nullification” tattooed on my forehead.
I could go on at great length about how Hollywood (CSI, CSI/SVU, etc.) and public attitudes regarding jury duty and jury nullification have seriously handicapped prosecutors’ efforts to do their jobs. I have detected a serious libertarian bent in many HBBers, but most of you really must know that kids busted with a roach or a joint are not put on trial or sent to prison. I said I could go on, but I won’t; I’ll say just that, before you feed the myth that police and prosecutors do little but pack prisons with kids busted with a joint or a roach, consider how that myth undermines law enforcement’s attempts to put away the violent psychopaths who actually are out there.
Oh– I’ll also say that just about all my students are seriously taken aback when I tell them a defendant has no right to be tried by a “jury of his peers.” At least under the US Constitution, you have the right to be tried only by an impartial jury; impartial jury need not be one of your peers. Anyway, what a mess has been made of this “impartial jury” guarantee.
I just got home from 2 days of jury duty after I was finally let go because of scheduling conflict for next week. It was all quite civilized and easy.
In many states, the law requires employers to pay employees the difference between their regular pay and the jury pay…
I got called for jury duty once when I was collecting unemployment. Seems like it should be the perfect time to be called. But if I had to go to the court, I would be ‘unavailable for work’ and therefore ineligible to collect.
I think we should change the unemployment compensation rules to enable people to collect unemployment while serving jury duty.
The jury is important when it is your case.
Having your fate decided by 12 (or 6 in some cases) is preferable to leaving to me and the judge and the other lawyer, because we will stick it to you with extreme prejudice, given the opportunity.
Do away with jury duty. Do me a big favor. Please.
Better to be judged by twelve than carried by six.
But anyway, this whole thing about avoiding jury duty really annoys me. The point has been made already, but if you were on trial on trumped up charges, wouldn’t you want someone who can read and write to be on the jury?
My brother is a contact public defender and he agrees: a defendant is much better off with a jury trial, especially if he has a good lawyer, who can very often pick gaping holes in the prosecution case. My brother wins most of his cases, as compared with about a 90% conviction rate for all cases in his state.
Just spent 14 days over three weeks to get to a hung jury. $15.00 per day in CA but NO remuneration after June 1st. Still get the paltry 34 cents per mile ONE WAY.
Luv’ yu’ guv!
NOT!
60 hertz? First cup of a NEW brew….smells great.
I am half-way through my first cup of Trader Joe’s Dark Roast Italian, in a seemingly futile attempt to shake off my permafunk…
i drink that too PB on yer recommendation, and it does taste like starbucks but it does make me sort of paranoid.
Why the paranoia? Are you feeling guilty about drinking something that tastes just as good as Starmucks but at 1/10 the price?
no, it’s stronger and the congress is out to me.
get
ok java drinkers i want the biggest bang of caffeine for the buck…what do you recommend?
Skip the middleman altogether and munch the chocolate-covered espresso beans.
My fellow grad students thought I was such a hyperspaz that they wouldn’t let me near them.
Buy green coffee beans and roast your own in a frying pan every morning. Keep your windows closed and breathe deeply while grinding and brewing.
That will give you the biggest bang of caffeine per ounce anyway.
Some Costco stores sell a “SF Bay Coffee Roasting Co.” product. They have a 3 lb. bag of French Roast for about $12 that’s much better than Starchucks IMHO.
+1 DN. I used this brand for a while, but alas….no more Costco membership.
btw…..You said you have an FFL? Here in CA one must have a storefront to be issued that piece of paper. A C&R license you can do out of your home, but the State of California doesn’t want anyone holding an FFL running a gun shop out of their residence.
Mine’s a C&R but most folks don’t know about them.
I quite like the Costco espresso brand. I also often get bizarro brands at the Grotlet and those are always fun and often very good. But what I’m REALLY yearning for is a Trader Joe’s. And one is supposedly coming soon to Black Lake Blvd over on the westside here in Olympia!
Ooooh, I just can’t wait. I’m going to set up a cot in the parking lot, so I can always be near…I’ll just live on California rolls, chocolate, and coffee.
Hey…just like now!
Peet’s french roast is the best, IMHO.
“white coffee” We have a local blend called White Zombie (Bank?
)
It is roasted for 1/2 the time and leaves more caffine in the bean… Make sure you get it pre-ground, the whole bean will eat your non-professional grinder pretty quickly. I was friends w/ a master roaster while I framed pictures on the side- so I’d suspect his advice is valid.
I haven’t heard of “white” roast, but lighter roast definitely leaves more caffeine in the bean than darker roast. Dark roast has stronger flavor but lighter caffeine, light or cafe roast has the opposite.
Sorry yer in a funk, PB. Maybe you oughtta pour some brandy in your coffee, see if that helps.
“…in a seemingly futile attempt to shake off my permafunk…”
Is this permafunk related to the gross mismanagement of the country?
Its like Deja vu all over again.
Sheesh, no kiddin’. I guess the pigs like their wallow, even as the mud dries up.
When mud dries up, pigs die.
From my INBOX this morning, The Lending Tree: “You can earn 10,000 Bonus Miles* after closing a mortgage refinance, plus 1,250 miles for every $10,000 financed. You can also earn thousands more miles when you buy, sell, or finance your home.”
My parent’s generation would never consider a mortgage refinance unless a major family emergency were unfolding. Not much has been learned during these last couple of years.
“When you turn your keys back in to the bank, you can use your miles to do it in person!”
When I was a preteen, a neighbor refinanced to send his daughter to college. The grown-ups spoke about it in whispers, with much sympathy that Mike had to take out a Second! Mortgage!. Poor guy, he must not be doing that well, maybe we should throw a potluck for him.
Now refi is old hat. Well, when preteens are trained into mall-ratting with Bux Cards and snowed under with credit offers the moment they hit the campus at State U, what else do you expect?
And thank you Obasiah, it looks like a Depression-like hunkerdown — the kind that actually teaches values — will not be forthcoming. Bux Cards for everybody!
—————
These goody packages are SO annoying! Bonus miles, old cars, vacations to Rancho Relaxo…and probably some claptrap about customer service and taking care of the whole person. Anything, anything other than giving you a break on the actual money.
/rant
But at those “rancho relaxos” they want the employees to work for freeeeeeeeeeeeee . Service for free and and a smile? I doubt it.
When I was in high school a family on the next street over sold their small house in our very middle class nabe and bought a much nicer one near the lake two years before their daughter went to college. Since the colleges counted home equity above a certain percent of the total value of the home as “savings” that you had access to the same as cash for financial aid, they did much better in her aid package by having the same dollar amount of equity but a lower percentage of equity in the new house. She went to a school that based all aid on need rather than any other criteria and while admission was hardly a guarantee, we all knew where she was going to end up.
The whole town was buzzing with this one. Who moves to a bigger house right before their last child leaves for college? It was actually a pretty good move. Putting the money into a house where they had fairly low equity was the only place the college wouldn’t assume it was all available for tuition.
Wow. I wonder if this still holds nowadays and for most universities?
This happened to my parents when I was applying for college. They rented a modest home and drove used cars (all my childhood). As a result, they had lots of savings. So, no financial aid.
Parents helped with tuition and books (which was cheap back then), but it was off to work for me while at school. Kinda liked work anyway as I had already held a job since the age of 15.
Most universities do not base all financial aid on need. Most use some combination of scholarships based on sports, academic achievement, extreme poverty, etc.
I distinctly recall the brief conversation my parents and I had about financial aid. Their alma mater was two states away, and that’s where I went to school.
Even then, the out of state tuition was high, and I figured that the Slim family would need financial aid. ”
No way” was the response from the parental units. Turns out that they’d been saving money for many years. And both Mom and Dad were (and still are) very frugal. (You should have heard my mother going off about the neighbors driving big, gas guzzling cars. In 1969.)
Both of my parents had fulltime jobs, which also helped pay the tuition. And, since I went to school in the Midwest during the 1970s, conspicuous consumption was most uncool. That also helped to keep the Slim family expenses down.
Obasiah? Is that one of the Old Testament prophets?
We will have all the “fun” of the Great Depression, but with none of the wisdom or change in behavior that came out of it, IMHO.
Many refis are little more than the excercise of an in the money option that had almost no value in the regulated interest rate period of your parent’s generation.
Galbraith’s A Short History of Financial Euphoria discusses the process of politicians searching for causes of financial collapse and promising to reform the financial system as part of the normal aftermath of bursting financial bubbles. I note that we have already had at least two such episodes (tech stock collapse, housing market collapse) in the short interval since he published this book (1994).
Yeah, the ol’ “Mistakes were made” part of the bubble.
It happens every time - what they will never fix is the greed and the bubble mentality.
There is also the little problem of politicians promising meaningful reform while taking care to not kill off their sources of campaign finance.
Healthcare comes to mind. I wonder if Obama would have been elected had he clearly said that single payer was off the table during the campaign, as he is saying now.
Good morning HBBers!
Leigh
Good morning from your friendly local Extended Stay! The lights are still on and the Internet’s still connected.
Hey, is anybody on Facebook, OLY?
it is a blast and i have 68 friends i found since march.
mostly from jr high school.
maybe i’ll start a bubble book so we can socialize.
Socialize? Isn’t that what we are doing in the bits bucket?
I join the pro-housing groups on there and drop housing bubble facts.
got a link?
Yeah… gimme a link!
I just joined at the urging of several old friends. It’ll probably be a year before I get around to posting a picture, and even then it will likely be one of my cats, or my garden.
I have a famous writer on my friends list,
don clark. It’s funny his friends list is who’s Who.
but he’s tech not polititts.
It turns out one of my high school friends, who always wanted to be a filmmaker, won an academy award. My other FB friends are much less prestigious though
I worked on the campus newspaper when I was in school. One of my fellow Daily-ites went on to win the Pulitzer Prize. Another won the National Book Award. And one is now on National Public Radio.
The Pulitzer-winning gal and the NBA-winning guy both had obvious talent. They’d already found their literary voices, and most writers don’t do that until they’re in their thirties. Or older.
The NPR lady was a very nice, face-in-the-crowd kid from the Washington, DC area. I don’t recall anything special about her, other than she was friendly and polite. Much more so than the other DC area people. (Is there something in the DC water supply that leads to bad manners?)
And she now has that very polished NPR Voice. She sure didn’t have that when she was working on the paper with me.
It will take a bit for my post to clear as it’s got a URL.
In the meantime, someone should make a “The Housing Bubble Blog” facebook group.
(from Newsweek)
“Friends With Benefits: Do Facebook Friends Provide the Same Support as Those In Real Life?”
http://tinyurl.com/kskbwr
Hey, lookit me! I’m being germane! Make a note of it, everyone!
I’m just like Elanor, I finally made a facebook account but I haven’t even looked at it in a month, I’ve forgotten my password, and there’s no photo up. When I get an email from a would-be ‘friend’ I say, ‘who the f0*0k are you?’ There’s a giant list of ‘friends’ I have to friend one of these days, I guess.
But when I have a moment to jabber I head straight for…well, you all know where I head for. Because here I am jabbering about geoducks and shoes and climbing trees alllllll the time.
Part of the article wondered if online networking/facebooking style chatter is as meaningful, which made me think a bit. It’s true I don’t know what any of you look like–except for Bink, the male underwear model and frog-lover, and Lavi D, although he lacks a matador cape and rose clenched in his teeth, contrary to my image of him, and a few others from the film in Vegas, but I don’t know if that matters a ton.
I still am excited to see cute photos of mini-ET and mini-muggy and I enjoy hearing about Fasty’s new ravioli maker and his herbs, and I miss SanFranGal lately, and I was sorry to hear about awaiting wipeouts parental concerns yesterday, and I pray Ben doesn’t get eaten by rural cannibals when he goes off to the sticks to probe alarming foreclosures. Etc, etc..
So, anyway, I’m still thinking about this.
Oly my GF made a drawing of me click on my handle…..
If ya ever come to the beeg apple , we would love to show you the great dives i know….cheap beer too.
If ya ever come to the beeg apple , we would love to show you the great dives i know….cheap beer too.
*starts packing luggage *
“the great dives i know….cheap beer too.”
Rudy’s
Nothing further to discuss.
Mornin Leigh!
Thermometer is going to start climbing today.
Have a good un.
Is it still the 16th?
The aftermath of the bubble’s collapse sure does feel like “Groundhog Day” to me…
I was roaming around Piedmont Bait and Tackle the other day looking at deer corn when to good ole’ southern boys walked in dressed in camo’s. Deer season was long over, dove season was still months away, I was curious about their hunt.
“What you hunting’” I asked.
“Groundhog.”
“What’d you do with groundhog?
“Red, eats ‘m; I just like killing ‘em.”
“How do you cook groundhog?”
“Quarter it. Parboil it. Flour it. Fry it.”
“Wait a minute,” said Red, “You forget a couple of steps. You skin it, take out the sweat glands (he pointed to a place under his arm), quarter it, marinate it beer for a few hours, then you parboil it, flour it, and fry it. It takes a heap of work to make a groundhog taste right.”
I knew I was asking for it but I went for the obvious question anyway, “What does groundhog taste like?”
“Chicken.”
Long live the South!
“Red, eats ‘m; I just like killing ‘em.”
Killing animals just for the thrill of it is sick and twisted. What’s even more disturbing is the number of people who engage in such acts. I have no problems with hunting when done in a legal manner, and when the animal is consumed, but I have a burning hatred inside of me for all of the people who use for target practice, living creatures. Rant off.
BB,
Eat what you shoot was a cardinal rule in my house when I was growing up. So much so, that when I shot a dove with a BB gun as a little kid I had to clean, prepare, BBQ and EAT it. But, dove taste good….kina like chicken.
Now I’m a vegetarian. Only because the meat supply is so bad anymore. The ground beef of today isn’t what we had when I was a kid. If I ever went back to rural living or hunting I might go carnivore again.
There is an inbetween class of hunting after varmits. Those rodenty things that just make a mess of farm fields, buildings and stores. Includes groundhogs, which are basically just big rats.
I assume they consider groundhogs to be pests. Sorta like poisoning mice, rats, or roaches.
Eat what you shoot was a cardinal rule in my house when I was growing up.
Ditto. Although it didn’t have to be a ‘rule’, per se, because all 8 of us kids were always starving and would eat anything that was more or less ingestible. Luckily, during the home schooling episode we were taught how to poach delicious deer and other wildlife.
*starts to sing ‘Memories’ loudly and prettily *
If you eliminate a species’ natural predators (assuming that in most places the natural predators of a ground hog would be a fox or coyote or something similar) the animals are going to have real overpopulation issues. I don’t recommend fixing that by blowing their heads off, but it is a problem.
mmmmm…..venison chili and venison jerky. Kinda miss those two things.
btw….I assume you eat all those tender little crustaceans you dig? Can you make Geoduck Jerky?
I assume you eat all those tender little crustaceans you dig? Can you make Geoduck Jerky?
You betcha I eat them.
*starts to drool *
Hmmm. I don’t know. I will get a chance to try soon, because around the solstice there will be some minus 3 and minus 4 tides! Oooh, I can’t wait. The last minus tide was super neat-o. That was when I was all jabbering on about geoducks, ’cause that’s when I first tried them.
I also decided to try moon-snails then, but I was not man enough to face those giant floppy writhing things. Maybe this episode!
Jeeze, those snails were bigger than my sun-hat. Instead, I put them in the fridge and they escaped the bowl of saltwater and beslimed a couple shelves. I can’t remember if I already told you that. Boy, it was hidjus! They utterly violated a head of cabbage and got into a little bowl of fresh clams I had steamed for chowder and were sitting in there stickily when I opened the fridge door.
*stops drooling right away *
Since you’re a vegetarian, does that mean no crustaceans for the robiscrazy meals?
You’re correct. No crustaceans. But, I think about meat quite a bit. Especially game like deer,quail, clams, abalone, dungeness crab, wild salmon, etc. All the stuff that was available when I was a kid.
As youngsters we could get our limit in abalone at low tide. No need to dive. Now to get legal size and limit you need a zodiac to take you far out where other divers haven’t picked the rocks clean.
The vegetarian thing is somewhat new. More of a reaction to the way livestock is raised, fed, and processed. Grain (especially GM corn) fed critters, feed lots, antibiotics/hormones, questionable slaughterhouses are all scary.
As for seafood, when I moved inland off the coast my attitude became a “why bother” if you can’t catch it yourself or buy off the docks as the boats come in.
Stay off the moon snails. They sound positively alien.
But, I think about meat quite a bit.
Hahaha! For some reason that is quite funny to me.
I certainly understand you about the animal raising practices. It IS alarming. I won’t eat store-bought eggs, because how the birds are treated is simply vile, and I don’t want to be a part of that consumer structure, and beyond that, I don’t want to be eating something that emerged from a de-beaked, de-clawed, jammed-in wildly stressed hen. It just doesn’t sound healthy. How could it be?
I only eat eggs from the neighbors birds, who lounge about in the meadow all day long like sultans, unless they’re molting or whatever that makes them eggless, in which case I go eggless too. (like right now, and it’s a hardship.)
But Totten inlet has some of the cleanest water you can find, so I have no problem scarfing down quantities of clams and stuff.
I’ve never had abalone. BUT—this is what I hear—Moon snails, steamed out and tenderized and then frittered, supposedly tastes like abalone!
But I…I…I….
Ijust don’t think I’m man enough.
Not only are they giant and flarpy and writhey, when they come out of their shells they have these two little ear or eye thingies that quizzically slide up the side of their shell. They look like the mustaches of somebody’s uncle, or like punctuation marks. Pretty cute and all simple like.
Sigh.
But I want to eat one! Maybe I can shut my eyes.
It sounds like you might have to give up on the snails. The eye thing you described would kill me.
Are cage free eggs at the store acceptable?
Are cage free eggs at the store acceptable?
Sure. They don’t get their little beaks seared off so they don’t peck each other to death. Being a chicken is probably not that great, for most chickens, but there’s some stuff that just can’t be accepted by a decent semi-evolved mostly-bald monkey. (me)
…Oh, I just thought! You eat cheese right?! Sure. Since only a crazy person doesn’t eat cheese!
It’s so true about the little delicate moon-snail feeler thingies. I don’t know what they are, but they’ve saved all the lives of the refrigerator-visiting moon-snails so far. I sadly pluck them off the befouled cabbage and then row them out and drop them back in the sea because of those little curlicues. It’s pathetic, is what it is.
“I won’t eat store-bought eggs, because how the birds are treated is simply vile, and I don’t want to be a part of that consumer structure…”
I vaguely remember you purchasing 20 lbs of pork ribs or some such. Do you got to the same lengths for pork? Do you know where those ribs originated, and in what conditions those pigs were raised? The chances are good that they came from Smithfield Farms- the largest producer of pork. Their pigs are raised in cruel, cruel conditions. From a Rolling Stone article:
“Smithfield’s pigs live by the hundreds or thousands in warehouse-like barns, in rows of wall-to-wall pens. Sows are artificially inseminated and fed and delivered of their piglets in cages so small they cannot turn around. Forty fully grown 250-pound male hogs often occupy a pen the size of a tiny apartment. They trample each other to death. There is no sunlight, straw, fresh air or earth. The floors are slatted to allow excrement to fall into a catchment pit under the pens, but many things besides excrement can wind up in the pits: afterbirths, piglets accidentally crushed by their mothers, old batteries, broken bottles of insecticide, antibiotic syringes, stillborn pigs — anything small enough to fit through the foot-wide pipes that drain the pits. The pipes remain closed until enough sewage accumulates in the pits to create good expulsion pressure; then the pipes are opened and everything bursts out into a large holding pond.”
I grew up eating abalone - it’s the California equivalent of lobster. But it simply disappeared around 1974.
My dad - like all dads of that age - told me all these stories about how tough life was during the depression. One varient was how they didn’t have enough money for chicken so they had to go down to SF bay with a tire iron and fill up a gunny sack with abalone.
testy!
Sure do miss bacon and a few other pork products. Many moons ago my dad was working in an area of Mendocino County in CA that had wild pigs. That year he shot a 1/2 grown swine that we roasted whole over a fire. MMmmmm…
DennisN - Abalone over lobster any day. We used to dip tenderized slices in egg then bread with mashed up saltine crackers and a few spices. Then into a big cast iron skillet of hot oil. Soooo good. How did you guys have it?
I liked this quote in the FT article linked yesterday:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b31c06a2-5a7a-11de-8c14-00144feabdc0.html
“We are seeing a race between the repair of private balance sheets and global rebalancing of demand, on the one hand, and the sustainability of stimulus, on the other.”
That’s about how I see it. We’ve got to get the savings rate up, trade balanced and people living within their means before the federal government goes broke. The problem is, Generation Greed is unwilling to let go of the “party on” mentality. They’re going to have to learn to live a little differently.
It’s not a generation thing. It’s a “banker” thing.
And here’s my take on that sitch:
It seems that words like “banker” and “debt” have developed, shall we say, a negative tint. Which means that, ever so slowly, the public is starting to seek alternatives to keeping their money in banks (hint: credit unions!) and incurring debt (hints: pay cash, save up for it, put it on layaway, or do without it).
Exactly what I’m doing and have been doing. Learned it after getting very burned in the dot com bomb.
That’s OK - if the public’s not willing the incur their own debt, the government is more than happy to do it for them.
Seriously - that’s exactly what’s happening.
However the government debt is growing a *heck* of a lot faster than private debt is shrinking.
Don’t you just love the smell of potassium permanganate and barium peroxide in the morning?
Smells like - fundamental instability!
Need a match?
Gotta love it, give more power to a private group of banksters,authorized by congress. The very ones that were the root cause and didn’t see ‘it’ coming. That should fix it, go team Barry.
New rules put Fed in hot seat.
By Krishna Guha in Washington
Published: June 16 2009 20:39 | Last updated: June 17 2009 14:25
President Barack Obama will reveal plans on Wednesday for a new system of US financial regulation that gives the Federal Reserve primary responsibility for averting future financial crises.
Mr Obama will also announce plans for the creation of a council of regulators and a new consumer protection regulator. He is expected to call for the elimination of the Office of Thrift Supervision, one of the nation’s bank regulators.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Draft Treasury white paper - Jun-17
Deep reform below surface of Geithner blueprint - Jun-16
Opinion: The three steps to financial reform - Jun-16
Interactive graphic: Caught in a regulatory web - Jun-11
In depth: Obama’s first year - May-07
But the administration will not attempt a more far-reaching consolidation of regulators due to the political difficulties involved. Instead, the plan proposes rule changes to limit the capacity of institutions to choose their regulator.
Mr Obama will propose giving the Fed powers to address the build-up of risks that threaten the system as a whole, with a focus on core institutions and financial markets. It will not require that the Fed seek approval from the council of regulators to act against systemic risks. The new systemic risk powers for the Fed will be accompanied by tougher capital requirements for banks – particularly the most important banks – and moves to strengthen the infrastructure of core financial markets.
I can understand why he is a bit nervous, given that a number of the reformers in his brain trust bear heavy responsibility for helping to create the mess that needs to be cleaned up. I can’t wait to see how the new era of glasnost will play out with the Fed taking the lead, as transparency is not exactly their strong suit.
Wall Street Journal
* CAPITAL JOURNAL
* JUNE 17, 2009
Obama Aspires to a ‘Light Touch,’ Not a Heavy Hand
By GERALD F. SEIB
As he prepares to release the most extensive proposals to change financial regulations since the 1930s, President Barack Obama is a bit anxious.
Anxious, that is, for people — and specifically for his conservative critics — to know he isn’t the heavy-handed meddler some suspect.
“I think the irony … is that I actually would like to see a relatively light touch when it comes to the government,” he said Tuesday in a White House interview.
It is a counterintuitive case to make when his government is a majority shareholder of General Motors, and when he will propose Wednesday new oversight of big financial institutions, new capital requirements for banks and a new consumer-protection agency for small investors.
Which is precisely why Mr. Obama went to great pains to explain that there is a philosophy behind the changes he is about to propose to the nation’s financial plumbing. Indeed, he says, it is the same philosophy that applies to his broader view of the government’s role in the economy:
“You set up some rules of the road, ensure transparency and openness, guard against huge systemic risk that will lead…government potentially having to step in to avoid a depression, and then let entrepreneurs and individual businesses compete and do what they do.
“And so it’s puzzling to me sometimes to hear the standard conservative critique of what we’re doing, when essentially every step we’re taking involves cleaning up the mess that we found when we arrived here at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.”
Will the “mess we inherited” broken record still play if he gets a second term?
$592 TRILLION is floating around in the derivatives market.
That’s a pretty big mess.
Count on it, Barry isn’t going to man up.
wmbz,
Not… necessarily sure I care for the particular -direction- but obviously, all protests to the contrary, “self-regulation” in this sector has failed. Again I don’t know how this squares w/ Phonie and Fraudie ( two of THE most “regulated” institutions in the country ) but I hope it’s a step in the right direction.
I think the biggest problem ( and WaMu comes to mind ) is that these banks morphed into “Loan Stores” and lost sight altogether. Now if we could just the GVIC ( Government Volunteer Industrial Complex ) on a leash?
Phonie and Fraudie
+1 I am SO stealing that.
GSEs = Government Sponsored Elephants
I prefer GSDs. As in, Government Sponsored Dinosaurs. And you can add a certain car company to that list. Its name rhymes with “gee emm.”
Yeah, me too!
Phonie & Fraudie…. good stuff
I have been alive for 53 years (so far) and self employed for 32 of those years. I have only watched more and more gubmint regulation and laws. More intrusion into our liberty and all under the guise of “protecting” the populous for their own ignorance, greed and mistakes.
The current administration will do more of the same and it won’t “fix” anything, except they will gain more control. The masses for whatever reason just can’t or aren’t capable of self reliance.
“Gotta love it, give more power to a private group of banksters,authorized by congress. The very ones that were the root cause and didn’t see ‘it’ coming. That should fix it, go team Barry.”
Well, gotta admit it, I don’t love it, I hate it.
The dumbed down Americans can’t see a multi-trillion dollar heist taking place right in front of their very eyes.
Guess they’re too busy with American Idol or checking their Tweets.
Guess they’re too busy with American Idol or checking their Tweets.
Don’t knock the technology… young Iranians are using Twitter to organize protest rallies and such. These platforms may seem useless to many, but the ability of anyone to disseminate information at speed to ubiquitous handheld devices is unique to our time and a game-changer in the way we view information access and organization.
Well sort of….i would say maybe in certain instances like this it is a game changer, but most tweets/social networking are probably about dumb stuff like AI.
Lets see if this turns out like Russia…and the Berlin Wall
————————
game-changer in the way we view information access and organization.
I’ll confess to having been immersed in the Inter-web since, oh, 1995. But this social media stuff just leaves me cold. Seems like a lot of busywork to me.
Why, just the other day, I was e-mail talking with a friend who has almost 140 connections in his LinkedIn network. I asked if he’s gotten any business from any of those connections. Answer: No. He’s only keeping the network going to see if something *might* happen.
Arizona Slim,
There’s an earful in what you say. I’ve been very active in “self-directed IRA’s” for several years. They have an internal referral service and I usually make a point to contact everyone in my area.
Invariably all I ever find is guys/gals that wouldn’t know the first thing about that aspect of the tax code and are simply trolling for free business. Everyone thinks all that networking will replace actually having to sell.
He’s only keeping the network going to see if something *might* happen.
To be fair, those are the types of things that are only useful when you need them. For example, in my current situation, having a broader network would be a HUGE help. Even if I might not know the person directly, getting connected with the hiring manager in some fashion (and making an end run around the HR beast) is a big advantage.
For example, the role I interviewed for yesterday, I quite possibly got the interview because the guy who owns the kennel where I board my dog used to work at the company. I’ve only met him once, but he passed my resume on to the hiring manager (I submitted my resume through other channels as well, but this was the most “direct” I was able to negotiate).
Linked-in helps in a similar fashion, I think.
But the myspace account already got me 6 inquiries and 2 jobs neither wanted zydeco music though…but click on my handle, maybe i should spice it up a little.
Not sure about Face book is it worth it… unless you make it a daily visit.
Preach it, D! Networking is all very well and good, but you still have to:
1. Identify leads
2. Contact and qualify them
3. Follow up with — and sell to — those who are qualified
I’ve found most networking groups to be a very poor source of the leads needed for Item 1.
I have a pretty specialized niche — design and photography for science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) programs — so going the networking route is largely a waste of time. I’m not interested in getting referrals to do websites for small businesses or logos for non-profits that will pay me with exposure. (Thanks, but you can get pneumonia from exposure.)
Since much of the STEM world is within universities, the best thing for me to do is to go to websites, get the contact info, and start dialing and e-mailing.
Matter of fact, that’s what I’ve been doing for the last couple of days. Been contacting program directors at STEM-centric graduate programs in the U.S. and Canada. Have gotten some interested folks, and now it’s up to me to turn them into clients.
design and photography for science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) programs
Slim, you do any work with any of the FIRST organizations? (Dean Kamen’s brainchild?)
Other than doing an identity package for a longtime client’s book on science teaching, I haven’t done any work at the K-12 level.
BTW, that book was published earlier this year. And it just got a writeup on The Huffington Post.
Other than doing an identity package for a longtime client’s book on science teaching, I haven’t done any work at the K-12 level
Ahh. The reason I asked is because I worked on (and am currently working on) software used in the FIRST competitions - both FIRST Robotics and FIRST LEGO League. Cool programs to get “kids” interested in/excited about “STEM” as you abbreviate it (I guess that’s probably a common acronym?)
Yeah, I have to admit to being glued to a Twitter feed for most of yesterday, trying to find out information out of Tehran, 140 characters at a time….
cobaltblue,
At ‘this’ point, I’m really not expecting anyone to “look up” to me for having seen this thing coming for at -least- six years, so why would I “look down” on them for just ‘now’ connecting the dots?
That isn’t entirely true. I DO expect some semblance of deference ( but I’m still holding my breath? ) It’s no longer a “heist” when you TELL people you’re going to take something. That’s strong-arming, and even the slowest now see we don’t have a lot of choice?
What’s wrong with that? He’s mandating that the Federal Reserve abandon their hands-off bubbles policy, which is what most posters on this blog have been screaming for years.
It’s not entirely clear to me, but it looks like this proposal will give the Fed, an institution that is owned by private banks, some sort of authority to regulate banks? Is this for real?
Yep.
The foxes will guard the henhouse AND not let anyone see how many hens are left until they’ve munched them all and run away with the loot.
More “Hope” and “Chains!”
Foreclosure freeze prods banks to modify loans
Carolyn Said, Chronicle Staff Writer
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
(06-15) 18:25 PDT — California implemented a new foreclosure moratorium on Monday to goad banks into modifying mortgages for struggling homeowners.
The California Foreclosure Prevention Act, signed by Gov. Schwarzenegger in February, adds 90 days onto the time period between when homeowners default on a loan and when their home can be repossessed in foreclosure. Banks can avoid the 90-day holdup by having a comprehensive program in place to make mortgages more affordable by reducing the interest rate, extending the loan term, or reducing or deferring some of the principal. Such programs must be approved by regulators.
“The goal is to compel banks to do systematic loan modifications across California to reduce our foreclosure rate, which is the highest in the nation,” said Assemblyman Ted Lieu, D-Torrance, who wrote the bill. “Until we slow that down, the California economy cannot recover.”
Experts said the California initiative should complement the Obama administration’s foreclosure prevention plan, which offers financial incentives to servicers who complete loan modifications.
“This law is most useful as a stick to supplement the Obama administration’s carrots to get loan servicers to adopt a much more systematic framework for doing loan modifications,” said Paul Leonard, director of the California office in Oakland for the Center for Responsible Lending. “It is a useful nudge to get more servicers to sign contracts to adopt the Obama modification plan.”
So the center for responsible lending guy (asleep in his office from 2000-2007) wants the banks to modify irresponsible option ARM loans that allowed Californians to pay way less than the interest, much less any principle. Someone should ask him exactly which “responsible” loan will allow someone making $50K to make payments on a $500K house. Maybe he means subsidized by responsible taxpayers.
Maybe the genius trust engaged in the financial system overhaul could ask themselves whether a financial system based on incentives that reward stupidity and punish prudence is sustainable. My guess is that it is not, as evidenced by the outright collapse of the Wall Street investment banking sector last fall, but perhaps the genius trust knows better than I.
Or, a strawberry picker….
In the midnight hour he cried- “more, more, more”
With a rebel yell he cried- “more, more, more”
Six Companies To Get $10 Billion Each In Mortgage Rescue Program
Huffpost - This MARTIN CRUTSINGER and ALAN ZIBEL | April 15, 2009 05:49 PM EST
WASHINGTON — The Obama administration on Wednesday named the first six companies participating in a $75 billion program designed to help millions of struggling homeowners avoid foreclosure.
The administration said the companies _ including some of the mortgage industry’s biggest players _ will receive a maximum of $9.9 billion in incentive payments, which are designed to encourage mortgage companies to lower borrowers’ monthly bills. The government expects to finish arrangements with other companies in the coming months.
Chase Home Finance, part of JPMorgan Chase & Co., will receive up to $3.6 billion, the largest amount among the six companies.
The other recipients are: Wells Fargo & Co., GMAC Mortgage Inc., Citigroup Inc.’s CitiMortgage unit, Select Portfolio Servicing and Saxon Mortgage Services Inc.
The program, unveiled on March 4, will offer struggling homeowners the chance to obtained modified loans with lower monthly payments. It’s being funded by $50 billion out of the government’s $700 billion financial rescue program. The remaining $25 billion will come from other government sources.
The refinancing plan is limited to borrowers who owe up to 5 percent more than their home’s current value. The administration has estimated the program could help 9 million struggling homeowners avoid foreclosure.
Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan said in an interview Wednesday that mortgage companies “weren’t waiting to sign the contracts to get going.” The banks, he said, “have already taken hundreds of thousands of applications for refinances and modifications.”
Still, many borrowers and consumer groups claim the modifications offered by the lending industry to date don’t do enough to help cash-strapped homeowners, despite more than a year of public prodding from regulators.
Fewer than half of loan modifications made at the end of last year actually reduced borrowers’ payments by more than 10 percent, data released last month show.
Questions remain about whether the lending industry has ramped up its staff and technology to handle an unprecedented wave of defaults and foreclosures.
That’s about the level of reporting I’d expect from the Huffington Post.
“Six Companies To Get $10 Billion Each In Mortgage Rescue Program”
“…will receive a maximum of $9.9 billion in incentive payments…”
“Chase Home Finance, part of JPMorgan Chase & Co., will receive up to $3.6 billion, the largest amount among the six companies.”
(emphasis mine)
Say what? Someone’s really bad at math and logic!
By the way - this was announced on 4/16 - two months ago. It’s old news.
Maybe it means the total amount received by these six companies together could be up to $9.9B. If that’s what it means though, someone who might know a small amt of math and logic should improve his/her command of writing.
Well yes - I know that’s what it means - $9.9B is the total (or $10B rounded). Thus it’s not $10B each - which would be $60B total, instead it’s $10B total.
In short - the headline is just wrong - obviously a big boo-boo.
“obviously a big boo-boo.”
Kinda like guessing wrong on a $787 billion stimulus package.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Vice President Joe Biden said Sunday that “everyone guessed wrong” on the impact of the economic stimulus, but he defended the administration’s spending designed to combat rising joblessness.
Biden said inaccuracies in unemployment predictions shouldn’t undercut the White House’s support of the $787 billion economic revival plan that has not met the expectations of President Obama’s team. Instead, the vice president urged skeptics to look at teachers who kept their classroom assignments and police officers who kept their beats because of financial assistance from Washington.
“The bottom line is that jobs are being created that would not have been there before,” Biden said.
But they are not coming at the pace first estimated.
Just 10 days before taking office, Obama’s top economic advisers released a report predicting unemployment would remain at 8 percent or below through this year if an economic stimulus plan won congressional approval.
That is a BIGGER BOO-BOO
“The bottom line is that jobs are being created that would not have been there before,” Biden said.
He’s referring to the growing size of the federal government here, correct?
My personal experience has been that people whose loan balance and term would make it possible for me to offer a reduction of more than 10% in the monthly amount are people who don’t want to stretch out the term. The usual loan mod from az_lender is, “Yeah you can skip this month and next because your cat needed a liver transplant; then you go back to paying the normal monthly amount, and the term of your mortgage is pushed eight months farther out.”
HUD.
Probably THE MOST corrupt agency in DC and has been for decades.
Sort of the original model for Freddie and Fannie and Sallie.
Some stick. I’m sure the banks are just devastated they can’t start realizing their losses.
So that means it’s what, like a minimum of 6 months now to foreclose? Aren’t they taking that long anyway? Will this make any difference at all?
My 80 something mother mailed me yesterday from West Pawlet, VT. She’s not a REIC believer but has never conceded the housing bubble was a fraud even though her and my father sold RE part time during the 80’s. Now the evidence is all around her and here’s her brief comment;
“There was a big article in the paper today with pictures of abandoned million dollar mansions in Saratoga! paint peeling— pipes broken and ruined insides when they didn’t even winterize them before they moved out. I think you were right when you said the misery is just beginning.
It appears we’re finally chipping away at the wall of denial in consideration of local scandal sheet reports like the one my mom mentions.
And just a footnote…. there isn’t a house in the entire county of saratoga worth a million. Everyone there works for nickels and dimes.
there isn’t a house in the entire county of saratoga worth a million. Everyone there works for nickels and dimes.
The delusion still runs deep. A good friend who lives in the Lake Placid, NY area works for a small local builder/developer. He says he has more work than he knows what to do with and could easily work 60+ hours a week if he wanted. Wall St. money is still building their dream vacation homes in the mountains.
In my mind, the outcome is certain, it’s only the timing that is in question… and no, I don’t think this will end well.
I’ll remain skeptical of the report from your friend Northeasterner. Foreclosures are raging in and around Clinton County and just picking up in essex. And I’ll stand by my contention that 8 month winters will drive out the wall street slime. It will take time but it will happen.
This is one of my closest friends and has been for 15 years. He has no reason to hide the truth and if he needed help, financial or otherwise, I would probably be the first person he came to.
The builder he works for does 2-3 houses a year on spec, high-end remodels, and occasionally some commercial work… employs no more than 10-15 people at a time, and pays cash for everything. The builder sold a spec home he built that was completely off the grid for $600K last year and held the note himself.
Take it for what it’s worth, but I guess this developer has quite a good reputation among the well-heeled NY/NJ/CT crowd and does pretty good by the locals as well.
I still think the area will get hammered, just a matter of time.
I don’t doubt the facts as he’s explained them but take a look at them a bit closer…
1) NY/NJ/CT slimers is a shrinking pool. Add into that those dependent on Wall St for employee and the pool narrows.
2) An off the grid shack in the high peaks? Someone is smoking crack!!!!!!! God help them at those times when the temp falls to -20 for weeks at a time.
3) the hammering has only just begun. The ball got rolling in Jan/Feb this year. Look where CA/FL is just 2 years after peak.
I made an interesting observation just today. Here in Westchester, the favorite local want-ad rag is the Pennysaver. There has always been the “upstate land” advertisements but in todays issue I noticed houses on large lots (5-30 acres) getting advertised. This is very new. Although they’re grossly overpriced, I was surprised. I still cannot understand the fascination of buying a house planted in the middle of a large lot but it was the trend. Considering these shacks are out in the middle of no where, there is absolutely zero reason to pay for a larger lot when there is nothing but trees between you and the nearest house 3 miles away.
in the entire county of saratoga worth a million. Everyone there works for nickels and dimes.
And there ya have it. The masses of people who are barely getting by with 2-3 jobs and not even noticed by the bubble or the bust.
Nickel & Dimed. Good read, eye opener.
Sure they have noticed. The line at the food pantry is way longer than it used to be. There is also a good chance that places will run out of food in the summer or early fall. Thanksgiving starts the big donation season for these places, and things get thin on the ground right before then. Yes, I am aware they got most of their food using money to buy stuff in bulk, not from actually food donations, but they are seeing increased demand and so their normal budgeting is way off.
Update on inflation: The consumer price index (CPI) increased a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent in May, below analysts’ expectations of a 0.3 percent rise. Compared to a year ago consumer prices are DOWN 1.3 percent, the steepest drop in 59 years.
The deflation rate in 1949 was 1.2 percent. The only other deflationary year since 1940 occurred in 1955 when the CPI dipped 0.4 percent.
For this reason the Federal Reserve will likely continue to hold its Fed Funds lending rate near zero percent. That is, it is fighting deflation with monetary inflation. The Age of Inflation has lasted more than 70 years. People are used to it, but no period of inflation in the history of humankind has failed to eventually collapse.
Note they do not include cost of food or energy in the CPI formula. Isn’t it time Americans flood the politicians and ask “why not?”
My understanding is that food and energy are included in the overall CPI, but excluded from “core CPI” (which takes out the “volatile food and energy sectors”).
question: if something consistently increases over time can one say it is volatile?
Yes. Here is an example. Suppose the time sequence of increases looked like the following:
Year Level Change
1980 100 —
1981 101 1
1982 130 29
1983 131 1
1984 190 59
1985 193 3
1986 195 2
1987 210 15
1988 263 53
1989 290 27
1990 295 5
The time series of annual changes (in my made-up example) are 1, 29, 1, 59, 3, 2, 15, 53, 27, 5. Even though the level always goes up, this process is clearly volatile.
Speaking of volatility, got DJIA?
Or oil?
marketwatch DOT com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic
Wow — after a 100 pt swing, the DJIA is a green shoot! Stay the course, PPT!!!
Muggy, I’m still letting it ride (my put on the Dow).
I guess the stock market has to have a good day when major financial reforms are getting announced, no?
Depends whether we’re talking about reforms or “reforms”. Since it’s the latter, yes, should be a good day on Wall Street.
Yeah. The article I read on Yahoo Finance touted the 0.1% increase in prices and said that number excluded “volatile” food and energy prices.
Oh yeah, and PGH falls over 4% because inflation evidence that does not include energy costs shows no inflation!
Puzzled! Made me buy more shares of PGH today.
Wall Street Journal
* JUNE 17, 2009, 8:46 A.M. ET
3rd UPDATE: BEFORE THE BELL: US Stock Futures Steady After CPI
(Updates to add consumer price data, analyst comment, latest available prices)
By Steve Goldstein
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–U.S. stock futures were trading in a tight range Wednesday, with FedEx’s gloomy outlook keeping markets under pressure after two sessions of heavy losses.
…
U.S. consumer prices increased a below-forecast 0.1% in May as higher gasoline prices were largely offset by falling food prices, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.
It was the first increase in the consumer price index in three months. The core CPI - which excludes often-volatile food and energy prices - also rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in May.
The CPI has fallen 1.3% in the past year, the sharpest decline in prices since April 1950.
Yup.
The aggregate price movement which must not be named: DEFLATION
Wall Street Journal
* JUNE 17, 2009, 9:26 A.M. ET
Consumer Prices Show Little Evidence of Inflation Threat
By BRIAN BLACKSTONE
WASHINGTON — U.S. annual inflation slid deeper into negative territory in May as consumer prices posted their largest annual decline in almost 60 years.
Still, a slight rise from the prior month and an increase in core prices that exclude food and energy support the growing sentiment at the Federal Reserve that deflation risks have waned. However, there’s little evidence that inflation is taking hold, either, a concern that has crept into bond markets in recent weeks.
The consumer price index rose 0.1% in May from April, the Labor Department said Wednesday, below economist expectations for a 0.3% increase in a Dow Jones Newswires survey.
The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also rose 0.1%, in line with expectations.
Unrounded, the CPI rose 0.096% last month. The core CPI advanced 0.145% unrounded.
Consumer prices fell 1.3% compared to one year ago, the largest 12-month decline since April 1950. That’s way below the 2% annual rate of inflation that most Fed officials think is consistent with their dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.
A drop in consumer prices is called deflation. Why can’t the Wall Street Journal put that word in print? Are they under the delusion that mentioning the commonly understood name for something currently underway in the economy some how causes it to occur?
But it’s not deflation, it’s “dis-inflation”. Or so I’m told.
Wrong. Disinflation is a decrease in the rate of inflation — for example, if inflation (the rate of price increase) was running at 10 percent for a period of time, then fell back to 5 percent (still a positive rate of price increase, but a lower one). When prices fall (like they did over the last twelve months), the proper term is deflation.
I’m with you, Bear, that was a little mild sarcasm.
Seriously, I’m convinced that the price indexes, based on a “market basket” of goods and services are mostly meaningless. Particularly so in periods like this, where the prices of certain key ingredients of the market basket (real estate, energy) are gyrating wildly by historical standards.
If a key factor in a market basket changes by a major percentage, then economic consumption behaviors also change, meaning that the aggregate optimal weighting of that factor has also changed. They can’t change the market basket definitions fast enough to keep up, not that they’re an accurate reflection in the first place.
Personally, I see nothing but deflation afoot, everywhere, in the things I’m potentially interested in buying.
Sorry, bro — didn’t mean to seem like I was “dis”-ing you
But it’s not deflation, it’s “dis-inflation”. Or so I’m told.
It’s “negative” inflation
PB:
Have you noticed an awful lot of ppl around still believe that “prices are rising everywhere”, even though they’ve actually been declining (and obviously) for quite some time? Inflation has become so accepted as a natural phenomenon that I suspect the PTB is relying on psychology to sustain it.
I think they are wrong.
I think the problem isn’t that groceries are more expensive than 1 year ago, but that people are having more problems putting together the money to buy - therefore, the perception of inflation. Lots of things are cheaper: Vacation hotels, houses, cars - but the stressed out American consumer isn’t interested in buying these things.
Where I live groceries ARE more expensive than a year ago. By damn near 25% in some cases. And I bargain shop in the first place. (as in canned soup, instant noodles, store brand cheese, etc.)
Eco:
groceries are NOT more expensive then last year…the guv tells you so
What you are experiencing is product downsizing, tuna fish is now 5 Ounces at the same great price.
Have you noticed an awful lot of ppl around still believe that “prices are rising everywhere”, even though they’ve actually been declining (and obviously) for quite some time?
I think you’re right on, Big V.
I hear this, too.
Companies Signal High Anxiety With Share Sales to Retire Debts…
June 17 (Bloomberg) — Almost two years into the worst financial calamity since the 1930s, companies are doing everything they can to reduce their indebtedness, selling record amounts of equity to pay back bonds and loans.
“Stock buybacks are a thing of the past: It’s reducing debt and bond buybacks that are in vogue,” said Kathleen Gaffney, co-manager of the Loomis Sayles Bond Fund in Boston. “Stocks aren’t going to move and earnings aren’t going to move without a healthier balance sheet,” said Gaffney, whose firm manages $98 billion in fixed-income assets.
More than 165 companies raised a record $87 billion in U.S. secondary share sales this quarter, and 77 percent of them used the proceeds to slash leverage, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Ford Motor Co., the only major U.S. automaker that hasn’t filed for bankruptcy, sold $1.6 billion in equity last month to obtain cash and finance a retiree medical fund. Las Vegas-based casino owner MGM Mirage issued $1.1 billion of stock to repay debt, fueling a rally of as much as 14 cents on the dollar in its bonds.
Companies are diluting existing owners to stave off defaults during the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. U.S. corporations have reduced the median debt-to- equity ratio for high-yield, high-risk companies by 12 percentage points since February to 54 percent and by 7 points to 32 percent for investment-grade debtors as of June 12, according to Moody’s Corp.
Investment-grade corporate bonds have returned 8 percent in 2009 and speculative-grade securities are on pace for a record year, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. data, while the Standard & Poor’s index of 500 stocks recorded its steepest 67-day gain in seven decades.
Dow Chemical, Hertz
Companies from Dow Chemical Co. to Hertz Global Holdings Inc. are selling shares to take advantage of a 40 percent rally in the S&P 500 between March 9 and June 12. Both were among the 54 percent of issuers since March that said they may use at least some of the money from equity offerings to repay debt, Bloomberg data show.
“Companies are diluting existing owners.”
Part two of the two-part fleecing.
Part one — the executives issue shares and options to each other, seizing a large part of the economy. But to hide the cost, they have the companies borrow money to buy shares at escalating prices.
Part two — after the executives have walked off with cash, more shares are sold at lower prices to pay back some of the debts.
Dot com anyone?
Dealers facing tight supply of SUVs, trucks
12:00 AM CDT on Wednesday, June 17, 2009
By TERRY BOX / The Dallas Morning News
If you’ve got your eye on a new SUV, don’t blink.
It might be gone. Even with the auto industry mired in depression – sales are down nationally 36.5 percent – big vehicles such as the Ford Expedition and Chevy Tahoe are in tight supply because of drastic production cuts that automakers imposed last year as sales began to plummet.
Now, a year after $4-a-gallon gas nearly killed SUVs, some dealers in this market are selling them for window-sticker prices. Moreover, most late-model used pickups and SUVs have regained all of the thousands of dollars in trade-in value they lost last summer, dealers say.
[Dealers love for demand to exceed supply, but many are concerned that they could run short of profitable trucks if the economy improves in the second half of the year. Their supply of cars – particularly compacts – remains high, they say.
Their supply of cars – particularly compacts – remains high, they say.
Our local Buick/Pontiac/GMC dealer has tons of trucks and big SUVs on the lot, but fewer cars of any size. They have only 3 Pontiac G5s (37 mpg hwy).
A quick looksie (kinggm dot com) shows:
26 cars
28 SUVs
42 pickups
10 Vans (GMC Savana)
Artificial scarcity. It’s one of the reasons the car companies are having trouble. The dealers don’t want to sell the smaller, less profitable, vehicles.
It’s just one of the reason I don’t feel the least bit sorry for them. They screwed themselves.
Artificial scarcity.
Edsels are scarce too, doesn’t mean I want to buy one!
Serial bottom callers are playing up the normal seasonal increase in San Diego home prices as a sign that a bottom is in. Given that unemployment is still rising, we have over two years of prime and Alt-A option ARM resets to work through, and a black cloud of shadow inventory hidden behind the mountain by banks holding on to shadow inventory and another foreclosure moratorium, I suspect this opinion will prove wrong through the lens of the rear-view mirror. However, they may be right that the median sale price is near a bottom, as higher quality homes may start selling again but at lower quality-adjusted prices as knifecatchers lose their willingness and ability to hold on to unaffordably-priced homes. I note that in the early-1990s recession, home prices continued dropping for roughly five years (1991-1996) after the recession had officially ended, and by appearances; this one is not yet over, which makes the bounce in prices a bit suspect.
I also expect purchase demand to see another leg down going forward (already showing up in the drop in the rate of sales), due to the aftermath of artificial measures to shake demand out of the bushes through tax credit giveaways and Fed’s mortgage interest rate suppression program. These measures would be expected to have the effect of temporarily accelerating purchases, but the fundamental birth process of new entrants into the housing market due to household formation marches along to the beat of its own drum, and the beat is very slow at the moment due to the employment situation. Coupled with rising mortgage interest rates, it seems predictable that there will be another leg down going forward in the pace of home sales as the hangover to the most recent round of demand stimulus takes hold.
Home sales down, prices up in county
Fewer foreclosures cited in MDA DataQuick report
By Roger Showley
Union-Tribune Staff Writer
2:00 a.m. June 17, 2009
San Diego County home buying dipped nearly 4 percent in May as bargain-hunting buyers found fewer low-priced foreclosure properties for sale, MDA DataQuick reported yesterday.
The median price inched up $5,000 from April’s level to bring the overall county median to $295,000, $15,000 above the low point set in January.
The increase may have resulted from a change in market mix – fewer low-cost homes, many of which were foreclosed on in recent months, and more higher-priced properties that pulled up the median.
But a trend may be in the offing, said DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage.
“It’s possible we’ve seen the lowest median we’re going to see,” he said. “I can say that, while also saying price depreciation might not be over, particularly in the high-end.”
He was referring to a slight increase in single-family resales in the over-$500,000 level in certain coastal ZIP codes.
“Some high-end communities are seeing more distress, more mortgage defaults, indicators to me that there are more motivated sellers,” LePage said. “To me that was inevitable, that we would see a bit more of it. People are running out of patience and they want to move for whatever reason and are resigned to today’s prices, even if they have to sell at a discount.”
Last month, 23.1 percent of houses sold countywide were priced at $500,000 or more, up from 20.5 percent in April and 18.8 percent in March.
LePage said the upper-end growth in sales helped stabilize the resale house median at $325,000, unchanged from April and up from the low of $319,000 in March. However, the median was still 22.6 percent below year-ago levels.
The median price for resale condos was up $17,000 from April to May to stand at $199,000, but it was off 30.8 percent from last year. The median for new homes, including both new construction and condo conversions, rose $38,000 from April to $476,000, 9.4 percent higher year-over-year.
…
WHY should I try to save $ downsizing my rental if gov takes it away in the upcoming rape of the taxpayer program that hasn’t even been unveiled?
OHM Ohm ohm.. chanting and clearing evil thoughts.
I have to try chanting, I guess…
Guess the spring bounce is over.
I was pondering the unknowable. Where are we at on the supply demand curve. We think the incentives only cause price distortions, however if you are far enough down on the supply/demand curve price is very flat.
So, at some point the incentives become attractive and real estate becomes an attractive investment.
I’m agreeing that its a bad time to buy here. Can’t see this spring rally going on for much longer and expect job losses to accelerate the number of delinquent mortgages.
Definitely believe we are seeing a lot of cushioning of prices due to government intervention. However, the environment still weighs heavily toward deflation.
“Some high-end communities are seeing more distress, more mortgage defaults, indicators to me that there are more motivated sellers,” LePage said. “To me that was inevitable, that we would see a bit more of it. People are running out of patience and they want to move for whatever reason and are resigned to today’s prices, even if they have to sell at a discount.”
The altA wave makes its steady approach.
“The altA wave makes its steady approach.”
Just like Pickett’s Charge, and will end with the same result.
“So, at some point the incentives become attractive and real estate becomes an attractive investment.”
First we need to get through the period when everyone says that ‘real estate is the worst investment’ before it becomes attractive again. Given that people are still making comments like yours without worrying about getting ridiculed, I would say we are a long way off from the bottom.
Judgment day: broke California faces shutdown at Arnie Schwarzenegger ’s hands
Mike Harvey in San Francisco
The state of California is in crisis and time has almost run out. Arnold Schwarzenegger, the Governor, has spent this week haggling with state legislators to agree cuts to basic services in one of the world’s largest economies.
The state’s top finance officials warned that unless an emergency austerity plan is agreed by Monday — and there is little chance that it will be — they will not be able to borrow the billions of dollars needed to keep the current government functioning. If California was a company, it would have gone bust months ago.
The breadth and depth of Mr Schwarzenegger’s cuts are unprecedented and no one in the state, not even its dozens of billionaires, will be unaffected. His more radical proposals include wiping billions of dollars from the education budget, with the school year shortened and larger classes.
Hundreds, possibly thousands, of police and firemen will be laid off, and state employees who keep their jobs face pay cuts of at least 10 per cent.
Parks will close, shutting access to thousands of square miles of beaches, redwood forest and other attractions that draw 80 million visitors a year. Thousands of prisoners will be released early and the notorious St Quentin penitentiary will be among state buildings put up for sale.
All financial aid for university students, affecting 200,000 people from low-income families, will end.
Local governments will no longer have to provide absentee ballots in elections, nor run programmes to help infants exposed to drugs. Even stray animals will no longer be kept alive for the statutory three days.
Mr Schwarzenegger, whose popularity has plunged, told lawmakers in Sacramento, the state capital: “California’s day of reckoning is here. Our wallet is empty. Our bank is closed. Our credit is dried up.”
All financial aid for university students, affecting 200,000 people from low-income families, will end.
I recall the days when Cal-Grants were available to students who were solidly middle class. My room mate at UCSD had a brand new Firebird which his parents bought for him and he was a Cal Grant recipient (early 80’s). I also recall that the Cal Grants covered most of the tuition and fees.
Just so long as we don’t offend the undocumented aliens or union defined benefit pensions I’m OK.
(not!!!)
Even stray animals will no longer be kept alive for the statutory three days.
Look out, those of you with dogs in Cali. If your dog gets loose one day, it sounds like they’ll be putting them down right away, rather than giving you time to find+claim him.
Man I’m glad I don’t live in that state…
Wow, just wow. The Fantasy… ends. Just a shame it’s taken them so long to come to grips w/ reality. CA’s Implosion could well become a blog in it’s OWN right.
Can’t say we didn’t warn those Oh-so-secure public employees?
Is a dog considered a stray if it has tags that identify the owner? They can just bill you for the room and board if they know who the owner is. I’d think strays are the ones who don’t have a collar and tag.
Or maybe that is just wishful thinking….
I’m not sure, Polly. I know there have been instances of dogs put down when the animal has a tag (I forget where this happened). The owners were on vacation and so the pound wasn’t able to get hold of them. They put the dog down after the 3-day period.
When my parents and I took vacations, we took the dogs along with us. (I’ll never forget the sand dune that our female dachshund staked out on the Outer Banks of North Carolina. That was *her* dune, dadgummit, and she wasn’t giving it up without a fight.)
If we were going someplace that didn’t allow dogs, we put them in the kennel, where they proceeded to bark themselves hoarse. That always made for a nice homecoming — dachshunds that were too hoarse to bark for a few days.
Arnold is an animal murderer??? What will the California animal rights activists have to say about this?
Arnold is an animal murderer???
Well played, PB….well played indeed.
He is actually a phony enviro, who owns a fleet of SUVs which tends to give away where he really stands on environmental issues.
Mr. Schwarzenegger’s popularity is going to slide even further when these policies are enacted.
with the school year shortened and larger classes
I’m not sure exactly what this means since over 20k teachers were already laid off, class sizes were already going to be increased, and the school year was already going to be shortened.
Hundreds, possibly thousands, of police and firemen will be laid off
At least they’re still one up on the teachers. Better unions?
Parks will close
From what I understand, this will cost the state more (in potential boost to local economies) than it will save. Nice.
Thousands of prisoners will be released
From what I understand, behavior will be used as the basis for early release. Sex offenders tend to have better behavior than drug addicts. Nice.
All financial aid for university students, affecting 200,000 people from low-income families, will end.
Fine with me. The way that grants are handed out is ridiculous anyways. Unsubsidized loans are good enough, speaking from personal experience.
According to a story on yesterday’s All Things Considered (NPR), some people think the federal government is bluffing. They’ve just said no to a Cali bailout “for now”. What I got from the feature was that Cali’s cash will dry up in about 50 days. At that time the Feds will be prepared to lend them a helping hand.
So far, very few whining babies have been turned away from the teat of the Nanny State. Most who have asked have received. Our elected representatives will huff and puff and act like they’re “outraged”. Then they will roll over and give Cali what it wants.
And then the next state in line for a bailout will be __________.
some people think the federal government is bluffing
The folks in Sacramento are not idiots. They remember all too well when the Feds declared there were to be no bailouts for financial institutions… and then there were.
Just like with GM they are turning up the heat on bond holders. Could the FED come in and start buying CA bonds on a discounted basis based on all of the hype and then later announce a program to buy CA bonds or insure them against loss??
Corinthians,
“Moreover it is required in stewards that a man be found faithful.”
Would you like to give us an exegesis? Is your screen name a complaint about the Calif state govt?
Having lived in CA for a little while, I can attest that no one, NO ONE, in that state has any grasp of reality.
…well, 99% anyway.
okay. Third glass of wine, and a reasonable sunset @ 7:51 pm a mile and a half frh sand of RB… Say what?
BRIC Dollar Bonds Beat Ruble Debt as Medvedev Frets (Update2)
By Laura Cochrane and Lester Pimentel
June 17 (Bloomberg) — For all the criticism of the U.S. currency by leaders of the so-called BRIC nations, dollar bonds sold by the largest emerging-market countries are outperforming debt traded in reais, rubles and yuan.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Chinese President Hu Jintao, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called for a “more diversified” monetary system yesterday to reduce dependency on the world’s reserve currency. The four leaders met in the Urals city of Yekaterinburg, where they planned to discuss buying each other’s bonds and foreign exchange, said Arkady Dvorkovich, Medvedev’s top economic adviser.
“It’s not up to politicians to determine which currency will be the world reserve currency,” said Lutz Karpowitz, a currency strategist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “In the end the market decides it.”
…
Wow, is this guy living in fantasy land.
Sorry Mr. Karpowitz, but ultimately it IS politicians that decide. You see, they run the world’s nations. And these nations have this department called armies. Maybe you’ve heard of them? (though it seems not) And they have the guns. Really, really BIG guns.
And lots of them. And they’re not afraid to use them.
Hi everyone. Mini-chile was born last week. We brought him home to our one automobile household and rented apartment, and defying all logic told to us by the MSM he did not complain that we didn’t have a mortgage.
Even more amazing, the Department of Social Services has yet to remove him from the apartment due to our possession of math skills and financial prudence. I was quite frightened of that, but alas it did not happen. Furthermore the credit card companies have not called for his removal due to our lack of desire to spend thousands of dollars on VOC filled plastic junk that only serves to enrich the Parent-Child Industrial Complex. We are, quite simply, suprised at all of this after spending nine months preparing for the worst given our refusal to participate in mass consuption culture by getting at least ten boxes of used clothing for free. Both myself and mother have yet to purchase any clothing for the boy yet he will likely never wear the same outfit twice due to the need to clear out old baby clothes from friend’s houses.
Best wishes to the HBB, this kid’s future is partially secured by your generousity in sharing your knowledge for the past…nearly three years?!?! Wow. If the little one could talk he’d say “goo goo gaa gaa”.
Bad Chile, Congrats on your baby AND your common sense. Regards, LVG.
Awesome BC!!!! Congratulations.
(And LOL at your post)
Congratulations. I’m sure he’s NOT thinking, “Pops, where are the granite countertops and stainless steel appliances?”
Congratulations to you and yours. Always good to welcome another HBB “shoot” though, of course, we prefer them not to be green.
I have noticed that all the Craigs list garage sales emphasize the vast quatities of baby stuff that will be available. People really have to remember that they don’t stay babies for very long - and that as babies they would almost always prefer to play with your fingers than with anything else
COngrats!
Did ya put the little guy in a drawer?
Send pics soon!
When we had two very young ones in a two bed apt I built a mini loft bed half way up in the hall closest, with a mini ladder for the four year old to climb up, for whenever the grandparents visited from Britain.
Mini-chile sounds like the brother I never had. And, Bad Chile, are you somehow related to my parents?
Congratulations on the little one joining your family!
Congratulations!! Enjoy blogging during sleepless nights. That is if he lets you (my kid would throw a fit if I didn’t walk around with her in the night - even rocking her was not enough).
And so it comes to pass, another HBBer enters the world.
Congrats!
That’s wonderful, Bad Chile! Congratulations!
Quickly, post some pix of the little habanero. Let’s see if he is as abnormally darling as mini-ET and mini-muggy. It’s my theory that HBBers produce offspring of superior quality.
I happened to be in the office when ET posted the last photo of mini-ET awhile ago and I bellowed, ‘Oh my goodness, how darling!’ so some office layabouts came over to see what the fuss what about and agreed the boy was indeed freakishly cute. Although when someone asked me what his name was and I said ‘I don’t know’ I got a funny look. As if I was trolling the net for baby pictures for some unwholesome reason or other.
Peoples is weird, ain’t they?
Peoples is weird, ain’t they?
Yar. Except for me. I’m the only completely reasonable and non-weird human in the whollllle wide world.
*falls spang off chair with all the laughing *
Blogging late at night…well, he didn’t like his dinner (milk..seventh day in a row) so I drew the long straw and got to stay up late with him. He finally let out a nasty fart and fell asleep. Good life, methinks!
THanks for all the kind words, y’all!!!
Try not to catch yourself a falling knife — in either the housing market or the stock market:
Jun 17, 2009, 12:01 a.m. EST
Supply and demand
Commentary: The supply of stock is mushrooming — a bearish sign
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) — What bear market?
Notwithstanding the carnage the stock market suffered between October 2007 and March of this year — the worst since the Great Depression — corporations’ share issuance departments are partying like it’s 1999.
In fact, firms have recently issued far more shares of their stock (either through initial public offerings or secondary offerings) than they did even in the go-go years of the late 1990s and at the top of the Internet bubble in early 2000.
That’s not good news, from a contrarian point of view: The stock market historically has tended to perform poorly following periods in which firms have flooded the market with more shares.
Lucky for the corporations issuing these shares, the Fed is providing massive support for these pump-and-dump operations…
However, the full article says that the average 3-month decline of the S&P following extreme periods of secondary issuance (such as now) was only 7%. More of a yawn than a crash.
Thus despite Muggy’s encouragement, I oughtn’t to ride my put on the Dow very far.
In case anyone was wondering what a Ph.d in biophysics pays now a days, the answer is $39k/yr.
POSTING NOTICE
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Job Classification: Postdoctoral Research Associate
Salary: $25.00 per hour for a 30 hour work week Period of employment: 09-01-2009 through 08-31-2012 Employment Location: Center for Biological Physics at Arizona State University
The referenced labor condition application is available for public inspection at the Center for Global Education Services, International Faculty and Scholars Office, Arizona State University, 150 TMPCT, Tempe, Arizona, 85287-4311.
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This notice will remain posted, at no less than two locations for at least 10 working days.
The utility of a biophysics degree escapes me. Scientist position.
Glad to steal one from overseas educated on the cheap. All us born here people went into finance.
That’s post-doc research… no money in that type of position in any field.
Strange, you always hear about the lack of Ph.d graduates in Math/Sciences and how there is a huge shortage.
Of course, foreign students do not graduate from a Ph.d program $200k in debt, so I guess they can afford to work for less.
Not only that, but desperation on the part of job applicants helps employers with the salary negotiations…
It’s how it is in any business. Academia just seems to be more snarky than most.
The whole point of the H1-b program is to fill jobs with foreigners that cannot be filled by Americans, not to bring over cheap labor from over seas.
skroodle: I think you’re confusing reason and justification here.
That’s hilarious skroodle!
Good one!
At least grad students in the hard sciences get teaching assistant positions, stipends, tuition wavers and the like. Many, if not most, science Ph.D. students can expect to graduate without debt. Liberal arts, not so much.
It’s not free money. They are slave labor to teach the classes and run the tutorials. If they had to pay real money to do that, the entire university model would break down.
My father has a Ph.D. in chemical engineering. He earned it in two years and 11 months. Without any sort of financial aid, other than a scholarship paid for by the company that hired him after he graduated.
No postdocs for my father, TYVM. Even back in the 1950s, he recognized the postdoc route for what it was, a never-never land.
A hat tip is also owed to my mother, who working fulltime for the U.S. Geological Survey while my dad was working on his doctorate. The two of them also lived very frugally.
As for Yours Truly, I didn’t show up until four years after my father became Dr. Dad. I don’t know if that was due to chance or planning on my parents’ part.
Oh, one more thing: Due to the crummy academic pay scales of the 1950s and 1960s, my father decided to pursue a career in industry.
About 3 years was typical for a PhD in the 50’s and 60’s. Look at the booklet for any science department at a major university. Most of the old guys listed their PhD dates as three years. The younger assistant profs always take at least 5 years no matter how smart and hardworking they are. I’m not really sure why. Mostly because grad students now have to spend at least two years teaching? Or because they have to spend a fair amount of time screwing up before they get meaningful data? (this doesn’t mean they are lazy, it just means that science doesn’t work on the first try.) Or perhaps there is just so much more information to wade through.
Again, they try to squeeze all the science at low pay for as long as possible. Building a resume? For how long? Why is it that finance people can make six figures right out of four years of undergrad, while a scientist makes $75K (if they’re lucky) after ELEVEN years by the time they are out of academia?
“Science doesn’t work on the first try.”
No truer words were spoken. Matter of fact, my father has the following posted on his office wall:
“If at first you don’t succeed, you’re doing about average.”
And don’t get my father started on what finance people make vs. what scientists and engineers make. Just don’t.
‘Again, they try to squeeze all the science at low pay for as long as possible. Building a resume? For how long? Why is it that finance people can make six figures right out of four years of undergrad, while a scientist makes $75K (if they’re lucky) after ELEVEN years by the time they are out of academia?’
A professor once told me you get your Ph.D. because you love to learn. You don’t do it to get a better job, more or less is what he said. He was aghast when I said I wanted to go to graduate school because I wanted to advance my pay someday. Probably some axiom to that.
I once asked my father why he went for his Ph.D. His response: For the same reason that George Mallory climbed Mount Everest — “Because it’s there.”
My best girlfriend (yes, we should have married and had kids but didn’t) earned her phd from U of Arizona. I was cohabitating with her for the three years until she earned her phd. She was and is a super woman. I remember she said she wore a mini skirt to high school - in Kuwait, to get under the skin of the administrators, yes she is Moslem-lite - in the late 1970s’s - early 1980s. Good times.
You get a stipend to do graduate work in science, so a person with a biophysics degree would likely not have any debt.
How do you figure V?
That person has a BS, MS, and a Ph.d. Thats a minimum of at least 8 years of school.
The MS and PhD are covered by the stipend. The only part that costs any money (other than lost wages) is the BS.
Science students never graduate with a PhD and $200K in debt, because institutions that offer a PhD in (real) science support the candidates on research grants during the period of graduate study. That’s why I picked hard science. Agree there is never big $$$ in post-doc positions.
Sorry, I missed the fact that several others had already posted this same info.
My ex had her phd and MS, probably also her BS all paid for by her Kuwaiti gubment. PhD U of Arizona. Somewhere I have a copy of her Phd sheepskin.
This is TYPICAL pay for a post-doc, not an aberration. Post-docs are becoming the new high-school diploma for scientists — you need one to get anywhere. And you have to go along with it because everyone else is doing it.
They try to wring all the possible science out of you for as cheap as possible for as long as possible. (There’s an axiom that scientist do their best science before the age of 35.) Scientists are now in their mid-thirties before they make any real money, and by then are considered ready to do only sales, because they are too expensive to do actual science. And they wonder why innovation is left to other countries.
This is like starting airline pilots making less than a Starbucks barista. In both cases, these folks are working towards building their resume and experience, with the expectation that in the future they will make a lot more whether in teaching or as captain of a widebody jet.
Don’t use this metric to bash H1-Bs - be assured that this is how it is in academia whether or not foreigners are involved (for comparison look at native American heavy departments such as liberal arts or even civil engineering - the stats aren’t much different there).
Why not? By the law, when the University hired an H1-b visa holder they certified that they could not find a single other American to fill this job.
If $39k is the average rate (as required by law), that would lead one to believe that there is a huge shortage of biochemists with Ph.d.
The truth? H1-b is complete sham!!!
That’s good money for a post-doc. It’s like an internship for PhDs.
$1.4 T down, $2.6 T to go… Does anyone else remember when BB said “subprime losses will be contained to $0.2 T”? It looks like he was only off by a factor of 20 or so…
S&P Cuts U.S. Banks, Citing Regulation, Volatility (Update2)
By Linda Shen
June 17 (Bloomberg) — Standard & Poor’s reduced its credit ratings or revised outlooks on 22 U.S. banks, including Wells Fargo & Co., Capital One Financial Corp. and KeyCorp, citing tighter regulation and increased market volatility.
“Financial institutions are now shedding balance-sheet risk and altering funding profiles and strategies for the marketplace’s new reality,” S&P credit analyst Rodrigo Quintanilla said in a statement today. “Such a transition period justifies lower ratings as industry players implement changes.”
Banks and financial firms worldwide have recorded more than $1.4 trillion in writedowns and credit losses since 2007 as the U.S. housing market collapsed and the economy sank into recession. President Barack Obama is expected today to announce a proposal, crafted by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers, to revamp financial regulation.
Where do you get your $3.0T number? I think the bubble was more like about $7.0T (about 5 on the residential side, 2 on the commercial side).
$1.4 T + $2.6 T = $4.0 T. But perhaps I am being overly optimistic? At any rate, I don’t believe we are past the third inning yet, even as the serial bottom callers continue to incessantly chant that a bottom is at hand.
Doh - bad math on my part.
No matter — the final writedown figure is destined to be a “larger than expected” sum no matter how you add it up.
Exactly. We won’t really know until it’s over and even then, we won’t have a true figure, just something that’s close.
But it will be big. Count on that.
“But it will be big.”
Bigger than expected, even. So big, in fact, that nobody could have seen it coming.
I heard in the BBC news tonight that some Republican Congressfolk vigorously opposed OBwan’s proposal to make the Fed the Übermensch regulator. They rudely pointed out that the Fed had already failed abysmally in its current regulatory role.
Thanks to whomever posted the info about crash tests on the vehicles from china. Absolutely amazing a vehicle that unsafe would be produced. Seems the cost savings are from removing lots of the safety mechanisms, probably to save weight, and then a smaller engine to take advantage of the low weight.
A total piece of junk.
I wonder if the Chinese can view that video on youtube?
I’ve heard that motorcycles perform badly in crash tests also. Manufacturers probably save a lot of money by not including air bags or seat belts.
Does anyone have a link for how pedestrians do in crash tests?
James, we used to build cars the same way up until the late 60s. Then some damn consumer rights activists got involved and then government started meddling around and now we have these damn safe cars. With high gas mileage.
Damn government and meddling consumer activists. Damn them to hell.
Oh wait…
Lots of good charts and data in the link below. (warning PDF)
MonetaryTrends
July 2009
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/20090701/mtpub.pdf
Thanks! Lots to absorb (though most known already).
OK, HBBs (other than Ben, who leads by his stellar example), I am struggling. Have any of you successfully navigated past the anger phase of the housing bubble stages of grief? If so, please divulge your secrets, as I want to put this episode behind my personal life and get back to what matters to me.
This blog has generally seemed to lead the popular perspective by six months or so. Given that I have been mired in the anger phase for months now, I am fearful for what happens when it catches up to the masses.(I am not violence-prone even when angry, but I don’t believe that holds for the rest of the populace.)
Good food.
Seriously. Commit to commitment.
PB, if you are thinking about how to move past Anger, that means you are already at Bargaining, without even knowing it!
Naah, it doesn’t work like that. I was stuck there for a long time. Moved on!
I’m going to try your suggestion (good food). I actually know my way around the kitchen fairly well…
Also books. Also music.
I know you play (viola?)
Why not learn something new and more technically challenging than what you have attempted before?
I simply take comfort in the decisions that I’ve made that have put me and my family is a good position, realize that life is too short to live it in anger and look for opportunity in the rubble.
Absolutely. Was at a dinner party a few nights ago where the (very wealthy) host stated that “everybody” is down 30% or more in his/her asset values. No way. Not the HBBer’s. I personally a down (single-digits) due to sticking with anti-dollar plays too long last year, but I’d be surprised if any HBB folks are down 30%. Of course I said nothing at the d party.
I’d be surprised if any HBB folks are down 30%
Except for those who were short going into this recent rally. Ouch!
I’m down just under 22% from my peak net worth as of today. But not really any deal past a yawn.
model railroading is good therapy
Oh I struggle with this too!
I know I can’t control what’s happening, I know I can’t change it, but it makes me sooooo mad! Every time I read about one of these people who “rolls” their debt into their mortgage and then wants a a bailout I fume.
Deep breaths. Play with children. Garden. Cook. Read novels.
How about “The God Delusion” - non-fiction, by Ricard Dawkins?
I’m not so sure that moving past anger is appropriate right now. If there were no more stupid stuff being done by the PTB in an effort to further ruin the world, then moving on makes sense. But with the steady flow of anger inducing activity all over the place, I say stay angry. It’s either that or apathy.
I agree. If you’re not mad, you’re not paying attention. Though I tend to alternate between anger and apathy for lack of effective ways to direct the anger. I’m not going to punish the innocent just to blow off steam and being angry without being able to change the situation some doesn’t do much for me either.
I might be ready to drop some of the anger if some of those most responsible for the excesses were punished or paid some appropriate price and when much of this period of financial excess has finally unwound. The former is going slowly at best and the latter appears to still be years away, more than 2 or 3.
Have any of you successfully navigated past the anger phase of the housing bubble stages of grief?
Unfortunately,I think for many what comes after anger is apathy. I’d rather stay angry than be apathetic. If someone knows of another option, I’d love to hear it.
Then again, I’m often criticized for my “negative outlook” on things. Again, I’d rather be seen that way than simply to resign myself to acceptance/apathy.
No matter what comes next, I don’t plan to move on to apathy…
I hear you on the Apathy - for me its “ah, heck, what’s the point of updating this spreadsheet of properties, when they never lower the price…?”
Then I make the mistake of going on to one of the many West Side Los Angeles housing blogs - to read, in slack-jawed horror, about the huge influx of asian speculators who are going to snap up unbelievable deals like a $600k starter home in Culver City.
Or how I’m delusional in thinking that the final prices of 2b/2b bungalows - unremarkable except for being within the Santa Monica zipcodes - could ever, everrrrr go under $450K.
And then I get angry again.
That’s me. I typically transition back and forth between anger and apathy, depending on what’s going on that day or even that moment.
Overall though I do have an ongoing sense of anger - or perhaps a better word would be dismay, but it very much transcends the housing bubble; it’s for societal problems in general, which IMO have been getting steadily worse since about the early 1900’s but even moreso since the late 1960’s - which probably not coincidentally is when I was born :).
IMO the housing bubble, and the current economic problems, are just a symptom of larger problems. Another related indicator is the ever-growing debt problem, growing since the early 1900’s.
You reminded me of an “House Hunters” episode I watched on HULU recently (circa- height of bubble) where a same sex female couple purchased a cratsman 1920ish 2/1, something like 900+ sq ft in Eaglerock, or there abouts, for $600K+ and then put another $100K+ into enlarging and remodeling it. I bet they now wish it was a bad dream.
My sister lives in West L A by the Grove, and homes are listing in the $1.3M range. So far no nibbles, but the sellers are still wishful thinking- not reducing. I personally would not pay for even $400K w/ pool for a home there. What is so special about West L A?
I am past the angry stage, but I feel like an idiot being frugal, no debt, cash pile, and apt dwelling. All because reckless behavior was rewarded, and us responsible people got nailed (so far). 23 yrs of howeownership behind us. We want back in.
“What is so special about West L A?”
Absolutely nothing as far as I can tell.
Even though I read the blogs - I actually don’t want to live there - its crowded and congested, and - from what I can tell of the commenters who post there - full of entitled people who think that their poop smells of roses.
If I could plonk my nice, friendly, blue-collar, largely Latino neighbourhood about 10 miles nearer to where The Husband works, I’d be a happy woman.
Oddly enough, the guys who actually run the blogs do a good job of keeping track of the insanity going on, but the commenters keep on harping on about how prices will never go down.
And how a tear-down in “The 90402″ at $1.2 million is the bottom. {sigh}
Any mention that things will go down further is ridiculed and I’m asked for ‘proof’, and that that is my ‘opinion’.
While they go on to spout tinfoilhattery - and thier own opinions - about how prices will never go under a $1 million again.
While it does make my blood pressure rise, at least it stops me from being apathetic for a bit.
Ha ha ha! Reminds me of Season 10 South Park Episode, “Smug Alert,” where the hybrid drivers bend over to smell their own farts.
I liked that one. And the huge floating ’smug cloud’…
Hahahah!
speedingpullet-
(excuse me Olygal for cutting in)
Thank you for validating my opinion about West L.A.’s over priced housing market. I thought I just “don’t get it”. Some of the properties are nice, but not Beverly Hills. These are average properties, with 2,000 sq ft homes at $1.3M. Come on.
I agree with you.
Apathy is zombeistic.
Anger is realization that it’s getting worse.
I guess the thing that irks me so much is how the Fed managed to kill off the efficient market theory which they so heartily championed over the years. By creating an overreactive system of bailout response to financial disaster, they have created a playing field rife with moral hazard for financial engineers who know how to play “heads-we-win, tails-you-lose” disaster capitalism. How can markets behave rationally when incentives are skewed to reward members of the bailout club who throw money into the sea? Or is it more correct to say that markets are behaving rationally in light of distorted incentives. At any rate, I say “heck of a job” to the Fed, and I am overjoyed that they have managed to consolidate their power despite their instrumental role in creating the financial disaster at hand.
Wow - I have to say that was well written. A good summary many of our frustrations.
PB, I think you need to vandalize a foreclosure.
Let it out, man. Let it out.
Hope you don’t mind me coming out of lurkdom to comment.
I dealt w/my anger (at helplessness really) peaking last fall and have been helping my husband and another friend through it recently.
I tell them: Tell yourself this next period is going to suck, then stop believing there’s anything you can do to make it different.
Professor Bear, you are so intelligent and have offered so much wisdom and analyses to others, I’d think it would be even harder for you to let go of the expectation of control than the average Joe. But it does help to give yourself permission.
My husband turned to focusing on more family fun time w/the kids. I stopped going online for about 2 mos. until I could read in a more detached manner. In the meantime I resurrected an old skill w/fun and friendly people. The distraction is like a reset button. Blogging’s great but housing bubble bloggers have been steeping ourselves in this info for 4 years now. Sometimes the emotional system needs a break. Now I notice how nice my husband is to me, how hard the kids are trying at school, how cute my dog is when she’s trying to be good, that you can make a strangers day by flashing them a smile. I see the good stuff now. And then the housing debacle which was taking a very large part of my life’s focus shrinks back to its proper place.
Good luck w/it.
Carrie
Nice post, Carrie. Good to see you back here again!
This has happened twice before in this country.
Google “1st American bank” and “2nd American bank.”
Be sitting down when you do.
You have just raised an extremely important point. When the Lumpenproletariat, great unwashed, Jose and Juanita Sixpack finaly grasp just how screwed over they are we are going to see a paroxysm of stunned anger and violence unlike anything this country has ever experienced.
I got past anger a while ago, I’m into the fear stage now.
ok. i’m now dressed in camouflage. I haff my army green Hummer packed with ammo including grenage launchers. Just blew the head offf of a army surplus owner on Crenshaw. I haff a full tank. I have my face painted in battle paint. I haff my little Chinese-American haff-my-age girlfriend who worships me but who is squirmy by my side. I’m gonna survive this battle (or at least this script). My watch is synced. Remember I said I will save you for last? I lied.
I remember someone on this blog was asking a similar question a few months ago, (muggy, perhaps) and his solution was to take a break and come back refreshed with a better perspective on the situation.
Yes, that was me. I felt helpless and bunk. If I didn’t have my son, I think I would have stayed on the dark side a while longer. Despite what I read here and in the papers, I really don’t see much carnage and I haven’t really “benefited” in any way that reflects my responsibility and patience. It’s equivalent to unrealized gains; I’m holding the ticket, but I don’t know how to cash it.
I just try to focus on the things that matter. For PB, that may be a challenge because he’s an Econ Prof., yes? I can see why this would make PB a little bonkers.
The secret is to set your expectations low. For example, my anger is driven mostly by bailouts and handouts - so I’ve just come to expect more of them. It helps some.
Isn’t that akin to apathy? Just like how people have come to expect corruption from politicians, abuse from law enforcement, etc.
Yea. I don’t think (widespread) corruption and bailouts as we have today will always exist, but with the pay for play system we have now, I’d be a fool to ever expect anything different.
PB;
Now that I know you are scared and angry I have no hope!
good food and young guys works for me. but sometimes I’m glad I live alone because I am getting sketchie.
facebook is a blast, except my most of my old hippie buddies are leftier than BR.
“young guys”
Don’t ask, don’t tell…
sorry, i was trying to be outrageous.
Don’t be sorry. Indulge!
Don’t let a crisis go to waste when you can be flamboyant.
Exactement.
Reuven?
sweeping changes - are you Reuven?
I’ve finally had to acknowledge that “the system” is rigged against the responsible. All my financial prudence has been brought to naught. My poor hubby has had to listen to all of my rants.
VT Dan made a comment last year that I printed and now keep as my new motivation. He said “Invest your money in assets that reduce your cost of living. These will provide returns in any market”. One of the ways that I have been dealing with my anger is to channel it into following his advice. I’ve been learning a lot and we’ve made some pretty drastic changes to our mid/long-term financial plans. It’s been exciting and scary all at the same time.
Exercise your control over your own life. Do something that is totally in your control. For me, a new hoby which borders on silver smithing, and a long trip this summer. Life isn’t all about numbers.
I am doing lots of watercolors. but I am JUMPY.
I am doing lots of watercolors. but I am JUMPY.
Ah, that really made me laugh
“Life isn’t all about numbers.”
There are a lot of things I like to do, but I do two things when I am on the brink:
1. Stare at unbelievable landforms (helps keep perspective of time, and scale)
2. Critter watch (helps keep perspective of place)
I’m short on landforms down here, but there is a huge gator at Taylor Park that I stare at, and wonder how it is that we both came to sitting around in the Florida sun in 2009.
i had a friend in New Iberia, a real Cajun’s Cajun. He used to go down to the bayou and watch the aligators. Then he took to throwing donuts to them. Went on for months.
Blue skye,
You are right on.
“totally in your control” is key. A real individualist is not interested in any Gods, governments, groups or crusades. Credit for that goes to Harry Browne.
Personally, my party starts in mid-September.
Life is too short for anyone to assume government gets in their way.
Although the global financial events can be incredibly entertaining, the “mistakes were made” crowd, misguided government interventions and unfair rewards to the irresponsible will only get worse over the coming decade. The frustration and anger people feel over these events will in some cases spread to adversely effect the thoughts/emotions in areas of their lives that matter: Health, family, earning an income, co-workers, neighbors, friends, hobbies, and creativity. That is why you, me and everyone should work to keep our involvement and emotions over this mess in check.
Although there are various coping strategies to combat anger, frustration and obsessive thoughts, one helpful technique is to not resist or try to stop the thoughts of anger or frustration, but rather accept and observe them, sort of like a disinterested 3rd party, or an adult watching a child having a temper tantrum. This unemotional observation from afar and active acceptance of the emotion separates you from your mind’s ruminating, and brings you to the Present. Bringing yourself to the Present is one of the better weapons against getting stuck in never ending thoughts and anger that may begin to degrade the more important parts of life.
“You can’t always get what you want
But if you try sometimes, you just might find
You get what you need”
- Rolling Stones, “You Can’t Always Get What You Want”
Gotta keep that want-monster under control. It can never be satiated. There’s always something else. Just gotta try and enjoy life as much as you can. If you’re miserable now, you’ll be miserable when you get a house. If you’re happy now, you’ll be happy when you get a house.
Discontent is always there. It’s part of the human condition. It makes humanity strive to better itself. Just can’t let it go nuclear and obsess you.
How about a little more positive R.S. inspired song: “I’m free to get what I want to get what I need?” (Soup Dragons)
Oh and I’m going to head on over to Nevada outside of the counties which LV and Reno are in…
Well, you’ll all be glad to hear that the housing market has officially bottomed!
Cramer: The Housing Bottom came early!
http://tinyurl.com/pks34
“Ladies and gentlemen… here it is… Right here, right now, I’m declaring a bottom… just in the nick of time! In fact, two weeks ahead of schedule… ”
Tom Brennan at CNBC.com puts his stamp of approval on this piece of wishful thinking:
http://tinyurl.com/l7tmsv
“What does a bottom look like?” This genius asks. “It’s the combination of ramping sales, and sales in certain areas are up ten times those of last year, and an end to falling prices.”
The only bottoms these two fools are going to see is if they stand in front of a mirror, turn around and pull their pants down.
Really? Does inventory mean NOTHING to these so-called business minds? I mean, if there are 3 mill + houses on the market and 19 + frickin’ MILLION vacant houses, doesn’t higher housing starts signify a big, big problem to come?
How about unemployment, or lesser employment, as I’ve mentioned before, my SO just got a 10% pay cut, inside the beltway and a good friend was just laid off. Inside the beltway, I feel there is very little inventory on the market. I have spoken to several people who are holding off on putting their houses up waiting for the “recovery.” Should prices inch up, the market will be FLOODED.
When did this country decide kick-the-can was the model for living and planning?
Oy.
Won’t be long, gonna need mo money…
On Monday the public debt rolled above the $11.4 trillion level. Not that Congress cares. Nor the average American, either. As of Monday this debt was $11,400,723,732,452.21. Fear not! There’s $700 billion left on the credit card, so let’s pour more champagne into the punch bowl.
Problem is that the bank that is Congress keeps raising the dang credit limit.
They normally do it thrown in with some other bill - e.g. the mortgage bill last year. Pretty soon they’ll have to keep raising it so often they’ll have to create bogus bills just to attach it to.
I foresee the “2018 International Rabbit Day Act” creating a new holiday to honor rabbits, plus a little clause raising the debt ceiling to $23.5 Trillion.
I like rabbits because they taste so good.
Marketwatch
Commentary: The supply of stock is mushrooming — a bearish sign?
What bear market?
Notwithstanding the carnage the stock market suffered between October 2007 and March of this year — the worst since the Great Depression — corporations’ share issuance departments are partying like it’s 1999.
In fact, firms have recently issued far more shares of their stock (either through initial public offerings or secondary offerings) than they did even in the go-go years of the late 1990s and at the top of the Internet bubble in early 2000.
That’s not good news, from a contrarian point of view: The stock market historically has tended to perform poorly following periods in which firms have flooded the market with more shares.
Prior to May, according to TrimTabs Investment Research, the highest level of share issuance in a given month was $38 billion. May blew that record out of the water, with a monthly total of $64 billion.
Furthermore, that blistering pace has continued during the first two weeks of June, according to TrimTabs.
How bad an omen is this corporate eagerness to offer its shares to the investing public? Looking back through recent history, TrimTabs found that there have been just 12 months since 1998 in which total new corporate offerings totaled at least $30 billion. The average return for the S&P 500 index (SPX) over the 90 days following those months was a loss of 4%.
Dissecting the data further, TrimTabs next focused on those months in which not only did total corporate issuance exceed $30 billion, but also those in which total corporate share purchases were less. The S&P 500’s average 90-day return following those months was a loss of 7%.
This more-narrowly-defined subset applies to today, unfortunately. According to TrimTabs, corporate new offerings since the beginning of May have been nearly five times greater than corporate purchases.
The recent surge in the supply of shares has also caught the attention of Ned Davis, the eponymous head of Ned Davis Research. He has found through his research that it is optimal not to focus on monthly totals but instead on a rolling 13-week window. On this basis, according to Davis, recent corporate issuance has been exceeded historically only by two other occasions — early 2000 and early 2008.
Those were “not great times to buy stocks,” Davis notes dryly.
Davis also draws an even more ominous parallel to the recent corporate rush to sell stock: “This high level of [recent] supply is one of the key characteristics of the monster rally in November 1929 - April 1930.”
From April 1930 through the low in July 1932, of course, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) fell by 86%.
For the record, I should point out that Davis, despite these ominous portents, remains cautiously bullish for the short-term, since many of his other indicators suggest that this rally has further to run.
But TrimTabs is quite bearish, recommending that clients be 50% short U.S. equities. “Stock prices are going to fall hard,” they predict.
The “funny money” income and lack of toxic asset writedowns suggests to me that the S & P
is currently trading north of 125X “normal GAAP earnings”.
Bottom line, the market is doomed to fall like a crowbar down a well.
You can thank the idiots who have never worked a day in their lives, never run a business, never made a payroll, who think they can legislate wealth out of thin air, for this fiasco.
You nailed it blue.
“The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants”
—Thomas Jefferson.
“America is at that awkward stage. It’s too late to work within the system, but too early to shoot the bastards.”
- Claire Wolfe, 101 Things to Do ‘Til the Revolution
LOL. Too true.
Let’s see - we’ve just gone through the mother of all bailouts, the sheep still don’t know that they got fleeced let alone how, and you’re expecting a revolution?!?
LOL
At a poker table, if you can’t spot the patsy, it’s you!
The book was 101 Things to Do ‘Til the Revolution. We’ve still got some waiting to do…
Rancher, you sure know your libertarians. I’m probably the only one of our responders who knows this.
Current account trade deficit drops to $101.5B
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER – 3 hours ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — The deficit in the broadest measure of trade has plunged sharply in the first three months of the year as the country’s deep recession depressed imports of oil and other goods.
The Commerce Department said Wednesday the current account trade deficit dropped to $101.5 billion in the first quarter, a 34.5 percent decline from the deficit in the fourth quarter. It was the lowest current account deficit since the final three months of 2001 when the country was mired in the last recession.
The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it covers not only goods and services but also iinvestment flows between countries.
The end is near! Well crap, I guess I will be priced out ‘forever’! May as well run up the cards and flip’um the bird…
Phoenix crop circle may predict end of the world
Crop circle experts believe the latest pattern to be discovered, a phoenix rising from the flames in Wiltshire, may give a warning about the end of the world.
Published: 12:21PM BST 15 Jun 2009
Phoenix crop circle: Phoenix crop circle may predict end of the world
The 400-foot design was discovered in a barley field in Yatesbury near Devizes Photo: M & Y PORTSMOUTH
The 400-foot design was discovered in a barley field in Yatesbury near Devizes and depicts the mythical phoenix reborn as it rises from the ashes.
Investigators claim more formations are referencing the possibility of a cataclysmic event occurring on December 21, 2012, which coincides with the end of the ancient Mayan calendar.
The Mayans believed civilisation exists within a series of earth cycles of 144,000 days each with the 13th expiring in December 2012, resulting in Armageddon.
Crop circle enthusiast Karen Alexander, from Gosport, Hants, said: “The phoenix is a mythical creature which symbolises rebirth and a new era in many cultures across the world.
“Within the crop circle community many believe the designs are constantly referring to December 21 and its aftermath.
“This could be interpreted as the human race or earth rising again after a monumental event.
“The patterns are becoming more intricate with every find and it is exciting to think how they are going to evolve by the time we get to 2012.”
Recent crop circles have included giant jelly-fish and one image discovered in Wiltshire in June which experts dubbed the most ‘mind boggling’ they had ever come across.
The formation, measuring 150ft in diameter, is apparently a coded image representing the first 10 digits, 3.141592654, of pi.
LOL at the whole general concept of “crop circle experts”.
I read it as “cr@p circle experts”.
We got plenty of those, no?
They make some really beautiful ones every year down in “The West Country”.
Though, anyone who still believes they aren’t man-made doesn’t have access to youtube - or is having major credability breakdown.
Some of them are gorgeous, mind
Lost yr job in mortgage brokerage? Consider setting up a school to train new “crop circle experts,” there aren’t enough of them.
So, when I go back home to Phx in August , hopefully after I have my 20oz 2XX (make that 80 oz)_, that after they cut off my privates including the deuce bouncers, meh be I will get to Heaven’s gate?
Have you ever seen the cloud of dust that rises when a large object dropped from the sky hits the ground with a high impact? That is the way I view this uptick in SoCal home sale prices…
Southern California home prices rise slightly in May
The median price was $249,000, which is up less than 1% from $247,000 in April. It was the first month-to-month gain since July 2007.
By Peter Y. Hong
10:42 AM PDT, June 17, 2009
The median price paid for a Southern California home rose last month for the first time since mid-2007, a real estate information service reported today.
May’s median of $249,000 was up less than 1% from $247,000 in April. The modest rise hints at a thaw in the high end of the housing market, where sales have been virtually frozen. Most activity has occurred in the low end of the housing market, as banks unload foreclosed properties at fire-sale prices that have dragged the median down.
The Southland median will rise only when higher-end properties begin to sell. Paradoxically, that means owners of those homes must lower their prices to attract buyer interest.
“As more sellers get realistic, more buyers get off the fence and more lenders offer reasonable terms for high-end purchase financing, we’ll see a more normal share of sales in the more established, higher-cost areas that have been nearly comatose,” said John Walsh, president of San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.
“Most activity has occurred in the low end of the housing market, as banks unload foreclosed properties at fire-sale prices that have dragged the median down”.
I guess Peter has never been to a ‘fire’-sale.
“In other news, John Walsh has recently announced the launch of his new TV show (based on the original) called America’s Most Wanted Banksters. Focus will be on fugitives from the banking and lending industry, but it is rumored that Wall Street executives will be featured from time to time.
Have you ever seen the cloud of dust that rises when a large object dropped from the sky hits the ground with a high impact?
Are you lucky enough to have mortgage brokers and bankers jumping out of the windows by you? Damn, I miss out on all the fun….
When have you observed such a thing?
I think the analysis in the article posted is probably correct: that a rise in the median price just means some higher-end properties are moving (probably at lower prices than the sellers were formerly asking). Case-Shiller tells a more accurate story, no?
Have you ever seen the cloud of dust that rises when a large object dropped from the sky hits the ground with a high impact?
Is that anything like a dead cat bounce?
Interesting facts about Railroads.
The US standard railroad gauge (distance between the rails) is 4 feet, 8.5 inches. That’s an exceedingly odd number.
Why was that gauge used? Because that’s the way they built them in England, and English expatriates built the US railroads.
Why did the English build them like that? Because the first rail lines were built by the same people who
built the pre-railroad tramways, and that’s the gauge they used.
Why did ‘they’ use that gauge then? Because the people who built the tramways used the same jigs and
tools that they used for building wagons, which used that wheel spacing.
Why did the wagons have that particular odd wheel spacing? Well, if they tried to use any other spacing,
the wagon wheels would break on some of the old, long distance roads in England, because that’s the spacing of the wheel ruts.
So who built those old rutted roads? Imperial Rome built the first long distance roads in Europe (and
England) for their legions. The roads have been used ever since.
And the ruts in the roads? Roman war chariots formed the initial ruts, which everyone else had to match
for fear of destroying their wagon wheels. Since the chariots were made for Imperial Rome, they were all
alike in the matter of wheel spacing. Therefore the United States standard railroad gauge of 4 feet, 8.5
inches is derived from the original specifications for an Imperial Roman war chariot. Bureaucracies live forever.
So the next time you are handed a specification/procedure/process and wonder ‘What horse’s ass came up
with it?’, you may be exactly right. Imperial Roman army chariots were made just wide enough to
accommodate the rear ends of two war horses. (Two horse’s asses) Now, the twist to the story:
When you see a Space Shuttle sitting on its launch pad, there are two big booster rockets attached to the
sides of the main fuel tank. These are solid rocket boosters, or SRB’s. The SRB’s are made by Thiokol at
their factory in Utah. The engineers who designed the SRB’s would have preferred to make them a bit
fatter, but the SRB’s had to be shipped by train from the factory to the launch site. The railroad line
from the factory happens to run through a tunnel in the mountains, and the SRB’s had to fit through that
tunnel. The tunnel is slightly wider than the railroad track, and the railroad track, as you now know, is
about as wide as two horses’ behinds.
So, a major Space Shuttle design feature of what is arguably the world’s most advanced transportation
system was determined over two thousand years ago by the width of a horse’s ass. And you thought being a
horse’s ass wasn’t important? Ancient horse’s asses control almost everything… and CURRENT Horses Asses
are controlling everything else.
LOL!
Great story!
Thank you very much for that.
Now that’s funny!
I got some news via my sister.
One of the couples she hangs out with is in deep deep doo-doo with their $750K exploding-ARM. The marriage is on the rocks too, and there’s a baby on the way.
Time for group hugs and celebrations all around!
BWAAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
Oh, and this couple was “featured” in the NY Times in the first-buyers “special” edition in Apr 2008.
Ha ha, I love that part. Can you send a letter to NYT or is your sister reporting info that can’t be verified in public records?
Non-verifiable (for now.)
I probably read that, and how did they find these couples, I wondered. Who are so optimistic.
“One of the couples she hangs out with is in deep deep doo-doo with their $750K exploding-ARM. The marriage is on the rocks too, and there’s a baby on the way.”
Good thing there aren’t any of these types here in the Bay Area -);
Oh, did I mention that these were in the Bay Area?
The marriage is on the rocks too, and there’s a baby on the way.
Well, that part sucks, even if they were numbnuts for signing an Idiot Loan.
Worse!
They put a substantial downpayment and the money was all hers. She’s a smart entrepreneur but clearly knows nothing outside her domain.
“You know everybody is ignorant, only on different subjects. ”
Will Rogers, New York Times Aug. 31 1924
US humorist & showman (1879 - 1935)
Better than having five kids before getting divorced with an underwater loan on a recently-purchased McMansion to deal with as part of the settlement (a story from my own family…).
No. 5 kids even better if she stays in great shape. Her ex will pay for them all while I coast and get some good lovin’. Hey, I’m a native Californian. I can’t help being hip.
Ken yoo introduss me to herr? (hick).
This did not post after a few hours, so here goes again:
Well, you’ll all be glad to hear that the housing market has officially bottomed!
Cramer: The Housing Bottom came early!
http://tinyurl.com/pks34
“Ladies and gentlemen… here it is… Right here, right now, I’m declaring a bottom… just in the nick of time! In fact, two weeks ahead of schedule… ”
Tom Brennan at CNBC.com puts his stamp of approval on this piece of wishful thinking:
http://tinyurl.com/l7tmsv
“What does a bottom look like?” This genius asks. “It’s the combination of ramping sales, and sales in certain areas are up ten times those of last year, and an end to falling prices.”
The only bottoms these two fools are going to see is if they stand in front of a mirror, turn around and pull their pants down.
Really? Does inventory mean NOTHING to these so-called business minds? I mean, if there are 3 mill + houses on the market and 19 + frickin’ MILLION vacant houses, doesn’t higher housing starts signify a big, big problem to come?
How about unemployment, or lesser employment, as I’ve mentioned before, my SO just got a 10% pay cut, inside the beltway and a good friend was just laid off. Inside the beltway, I feel there is very little inventory on the market. I have spoken to several people who are holding off on putting their houses up waiting for the “recovery.” Should prices inch up, the market will be FLOODED.
When did this country decide kick-the-can was the model for living and planning?
1st Bank of the United States. (please disregard my above post. Yes, I got the name wrong)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Bank_of_the_United_States
the itulip guys are not predicting a V, W, L, or VL recovery. They predict…the che.
ruh roh raggie.
What is a che(h) recovery, Michael?
?
It’s an upside-down h (turned 180 degrees, not flipped)
Picture a ski jump, except with no significant forward momentum to keep you aloft.
Down, down down…. up, up….. then straight down and crash.
I was thinking “S” shaped, but rotated clockwise by 90 degrees.
Nah - counter-clockwise.
I guess we are talking automorphism here?
like a new bacteria strain?
Gold to be sold from vending machines in Germany. And, at only a 30% markup! I wonder who had a hand in this?
Any trader would correctly interpret that as a signal to short gold.
When the sheep clamor for something, the time of that something has passed.
Those vending machine buyers are going to be the next generation of knifecatchers.
Well, pin catchers anyway. It’s hard to pour a fortune into a pop machine.
The S&P is an huge Dos Tetons Up. The PM chart is an inverted utter. I am safely out of the way of both.
Well in that case you go for 52 week t-bills. And reinvest ‘em ’til the 10 year note yield goes above 10%.
Link, please.
Emergency. Obama has officially ostrasized fox business.
sorry, but this has sent me into a ‘peacock’ tailspin.
My father in law asked me the following and I thought this would be an ideal place for comments before I work on a response to him. I would appreciate any of your comments or how you would respond (in as few words as possible to answer thoroughly - he is a retired software engineer for Boeing on the shuttle program). Thanks.
“As always, I would like to know the exact mechanism by which the Fed functions. I would like to be able to see what the Fed does to have an impact on the economy; not just in general terms, but how they actually do it.
Also, Kevin suggested that the Fed creates money. I am uncomfortable with this concept. Banks in a sense create money because of the way lending works (they start with $100, lend out $90; when that $90 is deposited they lend out another $81; and so on). In that sense the Fed may be creating money, but I don’t think they actually conjure money out of thin air.
There is also the issue of profits. I can accept that the Fed makes interest off the money it lends. I don’t see them making money in other ways.”
Wow - I posted the same question, also inquiring about profits on the Fed’s purchase of treasuries (hasn’t shown up yet, but probably will below soon). I swear I hadn’t read your post before I asked that question.
For good insight into the Fed, read The Creature from Jekyll Island.
Hate to break it to you, but when $100 is deposited in a bank, it lends out $100. That 10% reserve thing is so unamerican.
The supply of money is limited only be people’s willingness to borrow.
And by lenders willingness to lend.
Lends out 900, no?
Visa Clashes With Wal-Mart on $48 Billion Card Fee (Update1)
By Peter Eichenbaum
June 17 (Bloomberg) — Visa Inc., MasterCard Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., already squeezed by new U.S. curbs on how credit cards are marketed to consumers, are girding for a renewed battle over $48 billion in fees levied on merchants.
Lawmakers are promising new rules to bring down the interchange fee, a charge on purchases sometimes topping 3 percent that’s split by the two banks serving the customer and merchant. Supporters of the legislation include the biggest retail chains, restaurants and small businesses, which say the fees erode profit and inflate prices.
The debate pits the largest card lenders including JPMorgan and the two biggest payment networks, Visa and MasterCard, against Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. Interchange is the second-biggest cost after payroll, Target said, and merchants want to negotiate lower payments collectively without running afoul of antitrust law.
“The real question is whether the government is going to jump in and get into the game of price control in the free market,” Chris McWilton, MasterCard’s U.S. markets president, told investors at a June 4 conference. San Francisco-based Visa said June 5 the legislation would raise consumer costs and cut rewards. A similar bill failed last year, the firm said.
The limits would be added to rules signed into law on May 22 by President Barack Obama that curtailed consumer fees and interest-rate increases, which card issuers and analysts said will crimp profit.
Oh, gawd. The interchange fee. And the other things that credit card companies do to businesses. You think you get screwed as a consumer, well, just imagine that you’re on the other side of the cash register.
For one thing, businesses are pretty much forced to accept plastic. But the fun doesn’t stop there. The credit card companies are notorious for charging this, that, and the other junk fee just because they can. Those fees can really add up, and I’m speaking from personal experience.
And, if you should try to cancel your account, get ready for a hefty cancellation fee. When I decided that my business merchant account (which gave me the ability to accept plastic) was too costly, I closed it. That action incurred a $500 cancellation fee.
For further info, read the “Generally Speaking” article in my food co-op’s October 2008 newsletter. The article, written by the co-op’s general manager, Ben Kuzma, starts on the front page:
http://www.foodconspiracy.org/events/newsletters/
Obviously, this is a topic that really gets me going. In fact, I’ve written to various elected officials about it. Not that any of them have replied, but you know me. Being ignored just makes me sound off even louder.
Why don’t merchants simply offer a 2% cash discount ( no checks - real cash only) ? Cash Customer wins. Merchant wins (1% saved). CC company loses 3% fee.
Am I missing something?
I think Merchants don’t really want to deal with cash. Perhaps there is more potential for error in having a minimum wage clerk make change for a twenty than to swipe a card.
So suck I up Wal-Mart, you made your business decision.
The PIGS have eaten all the small competition and now they will turn on their own.
Every time I hear “free market” I wanna just slap the crap out the person saying it.
There is no such thing. The market is either rigged or gamed for or against you. Period.
“Free market” is also code for “free to *!$# you up the a$$” market.
My heart bleeds for the poor, poor CC companies. NOT!
Here’s a question.
- Fed creates money, buys treasuries with it (currently in the midst of doing $300B as such.)
- Treasuries mature and are redeemed at some point.
- Redemption includes interest - e.g. 3.x% for 10-year or so. Hypothetically let’s say $30 Billion on the current $300 B worth being bought.
- Fed presumably “destroys” the originally created money ($300B)
Who keeps $30B the interest?
From The Times
May 29, 2009
Bringing down the house in the US
Ian King, Business commentary
While there are increasing grounds for optimism that the US economy may be past the worst there are also, for those who care to look, still many depressing indicators.
Yesterday brought news that, during the first three months of the year, a record 9.1 per cent of American homeowners were at least 30 days late with their mortgage repayments. A further 3.9 per cent of mortgages were in some stage of foreclosure.
In other words, one in eight US households is either behind on their mortgage or in foreclosure. Equally worryingly, this is no longer a trend restricted to the sub-prime market, with prime fixed-rate loans – those made to the most creditworthy borrowers – accounting for the biggest share of new foreclosures.
This suggests that the US housing market has some way to go before it bottoms. In the absence of any change in demand, once these foreclosed properties hit the market, prices will carry on falling.
What? It’s no longer contained in sub-prime?
Test.
I give it an ‘A’ for effort, but ‘C’ for creativity. You pass!
It’s not just COPS. I really like watching Wipeout now, too.
I know, I know.
I bet you watch the Home Decorating shows too.
Desperate Housewives?
Schwarzenegger proposes 15% flat tax for California .
Question: if I am paying 28% for federal income tax and 10% for california will that be sales tax or income tax?
Lessee…15% plus 9.% federal (what I pay) … means I no longer will work in California. Thanks Guf Ahnoldt. And seriously, 15 years ago I was told by a entertainment company owner that he’d hire me as an Ahnold-look-alike if I moved to NY. I even Kan soundt like himm!
WALKER #2: Hey, Cedric! Bob! This guy won’t wear a ribbon!
New scene - Obama surrounded by Cedric, Bob, and the other walkers.
BOB: So! What’s it going to be? Are you going to wear the ribbon?
Obama (nervously): No! Never.
BOB: But I am wearing the ribbon. He is wearing the ribbon. We are all wearing the ribbon! So why aren’t you going to wear the ribbon!?
Obama: This is America! I don’t have to wear anything I don’t want to wear!
CEDRIC: What are we gonna do with him?
BOB: I guess we are just going to have to teach him to wear the ribbon!
Obama: More benefits for gay workers only one stepJune 17, 2009 9:14 PM
All Associated Press news WASHINGTON (AP) - President Barack Obama signaled to gay-rights activists Wednesday that he’s listening to their desire for greater equality in “a more perfect union.” But he didn’t give them even close to everything they want, bringing to the surface an anger that’s been growing against the president.
“We all have to acknowledge this is only one step,” Obama said in the Oval Office, where he signed a memorandum extending some benefits, such as visitation or dependent-care rights, to the same-sex partners of gay federal employees.
“When a president tells you he’s going to be different, you believe him,” said John Aravosis, a Washington-based gay activist. “It’s not that he didn’t follow through on his promises, he stabbed us in the back.”
I Never understood why the ABA and lawyers are not fully fighting for Gay rights
You have potentially Millions of lawsuits, divorces estates to fight over and that’s CLIENTS…moocho buckos….
Apparently these guys missed the memo on shadow inventory the banks are holding back from the market and Alt-A and prime option ARM resets that are scheduled to keep high-end foreclosures bombarding the market like a meteor shower through 2011 or so. To each his own but I, for one, would rather see how the market weathers this celestial storm before hastily jumping in to catch a falling knife. Unless someone is very sure about their employment situation and their ability to service a loan, why rush to buy “within the next couple of months”?
Regional home prices end 2-year skid, report shows
By Roger Showley
Union-Tribune Staff Writer
2:00 a.m. June 18, 2009
Online: For a breakdown of Southern California home prices and sales, go to uniontrib dot com/more/socalprices
In the latest indication that the gloom in the housing market might be lifting, MDA DataQuick reported yesterday that May prices in Southern California rose for the first time in nearly two years, up $2,000 from April to reach an overall median of $249,000.
On Tuesday, DataQuick reported that San Diego County’s median price rose even more, up $5,000 from April, to stand at $295,000, or $15,000 above the recent low point in January.
“We appear to be in the early stages of the market gradually tilting back toward a normal balance of sales across the home-price spectrum,” DataQuick President John Walsh said.
Jerry Nickelsburg, senior economist at the UCLA Anderson Forecast, said the prices are “about right” in historical terms and are attracting would-be buyers, but not yet enough of them to completely turn the market upward.
“A lot of people are on the sidelines who are saying it may be beneficial to wait another month or so,” he said.
But for now, the “sideways” direction of the market signals one possible conclusion – “The big implosion in housing is running out of steam,” Nickelsburg said.
…
I’m all for sweeping regulations ,but if the truth be told ,the problem was violation of regulations . Now the powers will have to say that sweeping regulations means enforcement of laws . Companies that failed to do their job ,such as underwriting loans ,or failed to rate investments right ,were corrupt and in violation of standing law ,or at least in violation of civil laws .
It was a fraudulent market and that was the problem ,not that capitalist
concepts don’t work . Regulation is enforcement of the laws ,not lip service .With the exception of bringing back more reserve requirements for the regulated and unregulated banks ,or addressing the conflict of interest that
investment banks have with the duel role of playing lender also ,the problem was lack of enforcement of the laws . In addition ,allowing the vast amount of money from around the world to come into our financial
system to fuel the cheap available money cycle went a long way toward
fueling the mania .
How can the Powers talk about “Consumer Protections ” when they don’t talk about the get rich quick mentality that in large part fueled the
fraudulent loan applications . The housing boom was a scheme that
the Consumers engaged in based on a myth that real estate always goes
up . The industry was making loans based on real estate going up ,while at the same time breaching their duty to underwrite loans or oversee appraisals . Poorly designed loan programs that allowed people to get in without any down payments, with the concept of nailing people later when the property appreciates was the great evil . A loan is based on present value and present qualifying ,not future value of the asset and future value of qualifying because of the value of future equity .
In the past ,appraisals were never based on “future value “and you won’t be able to find appraisal practice that endorses market value being future value . So ,the problem was a fraudulent market and a total breach of underwriting and good appraisal practice . The industry violated their duty and all the regulations in the world would not of changed this . The failure to call this crash a” crime wave” ,is the current problem with enacting new regulations .