Bits Bucket For June 23, 2009
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Big oops for the housing market bottom callers:
Posted: June 23, 2009 at 3:49 am
Deutsche Bank says that the commercial real estate market in America will not recover until 2017. Richard Parkus, Deutsche Bank head of Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities and Asset-Backed Securities Synthetics Research, told Reuters that values could drop 50% from their 2007 peaks. Some experts in the housing markets have produced similar numbers, showing that the current 25% drop in the value of American homes could be followed by another 20% decline. The residential figures are plausible even if they are based on nothing more than rising unemployment and interest rates. There are no inertia breaks on the housing price free fall while Americans lose jobs at a record pace.
Can the NAR deliver today? Yes they can!
Those unemployed people have all the time in the world to go to open houses!
I think NAR should be more American…PAY the UNEMPLOYED to go to the open houses! FEED THE POOR!!
If they started serving buffet lunches, I’d go to more open houses.
Oooh, I love good buffets! There’s a super-wonderful dream I sometimes have, where I’m at a Chinese buffet and I’m just eating and eating and eating, plate after plate of delicious cashew broccoli beef, and fried noodles, and won-tons, and egg-rolls with sweet and sour sauce, more and more, and short little Chinese chefs in white cooking-clothes come peer around the kitchen door at me, and whisper amazedly to each other, but I don’t even care, I just keep contentedly eating and eating.
THAT is a FABULOUS dream!*
But the thing is, sfbubbley, where does this buffet come from? Because I shall eat nothing made or handled by REtards and their minions, because of the cooties.
It’d be fine if someone non-realtory brought it in and laid it out, though.
*Sometimes this isn’t even a dream. I’m actually awake! That’s best of all! Hooray!
I think you just outed yourself and not as the cute waif like tierra topped LITTLE girl.
—————————————————————–
I just keep contentedly eating and eating.
A house down the street from us actually had a barbeque lunch set up for their open house. I went and grabbed a burger and a hot dog, smiled at the used house salesperson, then turned around and walked back to my rental while munching away.
I think you just outed yourself and not as the cute waif like tierra topped LITTLE girl.
Wrong-o, my good sir. See, I’m on the ADD diet-plan, which I heartily recommend to all and sundry, because then you don’t have to count calories or sleep or pay attention to what you just said to the hearing-examiner. All that tedious stuff goes somewhere else, for someone else to handle.
Anyway, I’m not little. I’m 5′7″ and I have giant muscles, bulging out like massive rippling pink footballs* from my robust farm-girl arms.
*Well, okay, then, maybe more like the bouncy balls in the toy section at the Dollar Tree, the ones with the stars and glitter in them, straight from China. But they’re like BIG bouncy balls.
“The residential figures are plausible even if they are based on nothing more than rising unemployment and interest rates.”
What if one factors in (1) tightened lending standards; (2) collapse of the mortgage securitization pipeline; (3) precaution about purchasing a home when job loss or income decline are major risks; (4) anticipation that shadow inventory of REO coupled with ongoing high rate of foreclosures will perpetuate the inventory glut for the foreseeable future; (5) realization that the peak Alt-A and prime option ARM tsunami crest has arrived and is scheduled to continue through 2011 or so; (6) loss of all hope that hair-of-the-dog housing market stimuli will serve to reflate the bubble, as none of the measures announced by pols and policy wonks to date have had much effect; (7) a clear understanding that we are witnessing first hand and in real time the unprecedented slow-motion collapse of the largest housing bubble in history?
Just askin’.
I personally believe the policyfolk who thought hair-of-the-dog stimulus (e.g. superlow interest rates, “first-time-buyer” tax credits, etc) would be enough to reflate the bubble seriously underestimate the implication of (1) on my list. Without the ability of Central Valley agricultural workers to purchase $700,000 homes on $20,000 annual income, housing prices lost their most significant source of bubble-era support, and diddly squat tax credits are not going to bridge a bid-asked gap measuring in the $100,000s.
I think there is a 10k credit for new homes in CA plus the 8k tax credit from fed.This is a credit and not deduction.I think you can actually get money back.You might be able to make your house payments for awhile off the credits.
How long will it take before stated income loans come back from the dead?Hvae any of you heard about the PMI companies?I think there are only 3 left from what I heard.
Yeah, but you can’t make house payments off of credits indefinitely. And then where’s the next rabbit to pull out of the hat?
Stated income loans have started coming back, BUT they are much tougher to get. You have to have decent credit, over 740 fico and be a W-2′d employee (you can not be self employed) and you need at least 20% down. I only have one place that will do them right now.
And do you suppose that Mr Market is incapable of taking your $18k credit and still throw a knifecatcher under the bus?
J6P buys his Fresno dream home for $150k. Net cost is $138k.
And if market value on his home this time next year is $112k, then what say ye?
Is there anything for self employed with 766 fico and 40% down?
There is if you can prove your income. Can’t do stated, but if you claim enough income on your taxes to support the payments, you can still get a conventional loan. You’d just have to go full doc and show 2 yrs worth of tax returns.
Great comment. And probably true.
You hit it bang on about the loans.
I think the spanking of the luxury market (over $750K +) here in South Florida is going to continue to be cut off at the knees. These McMansions were not built for McMillionaires - they were built for people who would NEVER qualify for the financing under prudent lending standards. These FB’s option-armed and liar-loaned their way into them. And now that they’re being forced out, they likely will never be able to get back into them in their lifetimes.
And I don’t see enough millionaires being minted to absorb all these properties. I think Deutsch Bank may be a little generous in their 2017 prediction. A wise realtor friend (I know, an oxymoron) thinks 15 years in our market. 15 years *before* prices start to see appreciation again.
Sorry to say but I don’t think lending standard have tighten…Mr and Mrs. EX-McMansion owner(former residencehouse now in foreclosure) just bought another home in the same community..by the way..closed on 5/30 in wifes name..on 5/29 Lis Pen issused to wife on another property for not paying HOA…seems to me lending standards have not tightened…loan was jumbo for $750K and she is a happy homeowner???
“And I don’t see enough millionaires being minted to absorb all these properties.”
Recent MSM stories suggest a lot more millionaires being ‘de-minted’ than minted these days.
IMHO, it is only a matter of time until stated-income and other forms of toxic lending a make a brief, but disasterous return. The Powers That Be will do everything to restart this Bubble, and if I can fully see them pulling stunt with a $20,000 credit if you buy a house and then that credit counts as “income” and so on - whatever it takes to keep housing unaffordable and people in debt. Then, runaway inflation will eventually make up the different in the next 5 years or so…
Geez, it’s only Tuesday and Mr. Bear’s odds of winning this week’s “Eeyore Award” have increased exponentially…
Nice summary Bear…
You bring some very salient points to the table Prof. Bear, and we’re witnessing all of this personally in our area.
we are witnessing first hand and in real time the unprecedented slow-motion collapse of the largest housing bubble in history?
yep
“Just askin’”
“Little trouble-maker”
…”Just sayin’”
Not to pile on, but this is something even bigger than the largest housing bubble in history. It is the largest credit bubble in history, and the people on the street are only just beginning to realize that the Obama stimulus plan is like building sand castles on the beach to slow a tsunami. Credit cards, CRE, business lending of all stripes… is all swirling down the porcelain god.
Hater!
lol
“…largest credit bubble in history…”
We have a winner.
You can only make money from investing in investments that invest in other investing investments for so long… then reality gets ugly.
Yes, it really was/is just one big Ponzi scheme.
My question is: If out-of-control lending led to the real estate bubble, why wouldn’t the removal of out-of-control lending lead back to historical real estate prices?
This simple concept is summarily rejected by everyone I know who owns a home.
I think for now the $8K tax credit will things from dropping too much. There’s a $15K credit in the works. With some leverage that can be turned into $150K of purchasing power, setting up the next generation of foreclosures. Of course this is not sustainable indefinitely as government would have to increase the dosage over time ($30K credit then $50K etc.). So once the government cheese runs out in a year or two we’ll be on the next leg down. With all the crazy government stimulous in place it will delay the bottom in housing for several years.
“…government would have to increase the dosage over time ($30K credit then $50K etc.).”
I personally plan to bide my time until the government just gives away houses for free (sarcasm tag off).
Patience, grass hopper, patience.
Pretty soon a $50k credit will be the equivalent of giving away houses for free in most places.
And whats WRONG with that?.. I could use a Free house
Better then houses sitting around waiting for squatters vandals mold mildew rats and ronches….right?
Whats a “ronch”
LOL, JFWY. I have a mental picture of a roach with a big shell on its back.
I had big ronches in my apts in NYC. Ronches are way more scary than those littler ones,roaches.
“Death at XX ranch, er, ronch … ”
Holly Martins in The Third Man.
“I could use a Free house”
There’s no such thing as a free house.
– Economic folklore –
Before this fiasco is done, i predict that we WILL see the US Government give away “homesteads”.
It’s been done before. I can’t wait for the 21st Century version of the “Oklahoma Land Rush”………I see an abandoned housing development out in the desert somewhere in California, Arizona, or Nevada, a long line of Suburbans, Escalades, and Hummer H2s lined up side-by-side, packed with the extended families, beer, and guns……then the starting gun goes off at high noon…..
Sort of a cross between “Wagon Train” and “Ben-Hur”.
Sort of a cross between “Wagon Train” and “Ben-Hur”.
Oh my gosh! I love your vision! I cannot wait for it!
*eager face *
The concept of a Post-Apocolyptic land rush for ruined McMansions in failed developments is fascinating to think about. I’m seeing the Hummers and Escalades with bling, spinners, etc. driving out into the Wastelands while roving gangs try to steal the gas from the vehicles (after our leaders’ “Strong Dollar Policy” leads to a collapse of the dollar.) Similarly, turf wars erupt in blighted inner cities as heavily armed drug gangs do battle with equally heavily armed charity groups; the former want to keep their drug houses, while the latter want to convert them to more “normal” housing. Note that New Future Homesteading will only be given out to people who have a proven track record of poor economic decisions; prudent renters will have to join gas-stealing gangs to survive!
Awsome!
According to the question and answer information I read, and Form 5405 itself, it’s 10% of the purchase price, with a cap of $8,000. Misinformation by design.
It’s all about jobs. The cart before the horse, so typical of our govt.
Is the nefarious ptb, going to finance all these mortgages? Where’s all this $ going to come from? Isn’t the MBS market DOA? I’m just saying, if lenders hold their own portfoilos, won’t this make those incentives weaker?
Is the nefarious ptb, going to finance all these mortgages? Where’s all this $ going to come from? Isn’t the MBS market DOA? I’m just saying, if lenders hold their own portfoilos, won’t this make those incentives weaker?
I take it you’re not familiar with the Federal Reserve’s actions to buy $1.25T of MBS via Fannie and Freddie? That answers most of your questions, at least in part.
In reality I think they’ll still get overwhelmed - but that’s a big friggin’ chunk of money.
Okay, Slim here. Checking in from self-employment land.
Y’know, over the years, I’ve been doing a lot of thinkin’ about why the government is so adamant about creating jobs. As opposed to encouraging more of us to strike out on the entrepreneurial path.
And here’s what I’ve come up with: The reason that jobs! jobs! jobs! is the rallying cry of so many politicians is that it’s a form of subjugation. Keep those people docile and employed by others.
Not to mention the taxation. In the employed world, your taxes are taken right out of your paycheck. But, out here in Self Employed Land, you have to write those mondo estimated tax checks to the government. Four times a year you do.
Matter of fact, I had to write one of those mondo checks last week. And the act of doing such a thing puts me in one of those questioning the cost and size of government moods. Which is not the sort of mood that the PTB wants to encourage.
Good points, slim. I also resent the implication that any “job” is as good as any other. Actually, even among jobs paying the same amount, there is tremendous variation in flextime policy, working conditions, scope for creativity, etc., etc., not to mention the value of the work to society.
Well slim, I’ve met a lot of people who have no business being in business and/or will never have the aptitude or constitution for it.
If fact, I’d say that’s most people. Including certain “too-big-too-fail” captains of industry.
Remember, it’s not really the government, it’s industry lobbies using the government to eliminate their competition.
Preach it, ecofeco! I’m also of the mind that being in business isn’t a right, it’s a privilege. You have to earn it every day.
No, unfortunately after a brief lull, the MBS market is back up to 2006 levels this last quarter.
The Fed bid it up, no?
“It’s all about jobs”
A conspiracy theorist could make the case that the Housing/Credit bubbles were just a smokescreen to camoflage the fact that a huge chunk of our manufacturing/employment base was being shipped on a fast boat out of the country.
What manufacturing has stayed here is either super-high-tech, custom stuff, or subsidized by government (in the form of state/local property tax abatements, government-paid job training, industrial revenue bonds, etc.).
IMO, the upcoming “carbon-trading” regime is only going to accelerate this process…….even if China, India, etc. decide to participate, does anybody believe that they have the infrastructure to accurately track it? I just see the playing field getting more “un-level”.
Even if there is some new “Bill Gates” out there, that has figured out a way to make a super-light, super powerful electrical storage device, or a cold fusion reactor, or a matter/anti-matter powerplant, it’s not going to be made here, anyway.
What we need is a nice little war in Asia, involving some combination of Russia, China, India, Vietnam, Korea, Japan, etc. (or better yet, a combination of some/all the above).
Something where a bunch of military/industrial hardware is going to get chewed up in a hurry. Even better would be a deal where we can sell stuff to both sides……
Unless there is some kind of “Good Black Swan” out there, about 40% of the population is pretty much fooked. The challenge going forward is to stay out of that 40%.
“I think for now the $8K tax credit will things from dropping too much. There’s a $15K credit in the works.”
Is anyone else thinking that the tax credits just turn next year’s knife-catchers into this year’s knife-catchers?
Shifting the demand curve on the time axis was one of the problems of the bubble, and cannot be its solution.
“Shifting the demand curve on the time axis”
Bingo! Never saw an $8,000 string to push on before… but I get your point. I think one of the things we all find so frustrating is that if gauged by ‘jobs alone’, homes basically ’should’ be free?
There’s zero security ( even among those of us that -haven’t- been laid off ) and to ‘me’ that’s the primary deciding factor in buying a home. Not* your current income.
Yet still, I don’t have anywhere’s near the money to be in the market for a $15 mil. yacht, does that mean ‘their’ prices should come down to a level where I -can- afford one?
I guess you will have to wait until the government adds yachts to the list of must-have assets for members of the Ownership Society to possess.
Professor Bear,
Right, by being able to itemize the int. I pay on the loan, points, taxes and be exempt from cap. gains when I sell it!
But again, I fear the simple statement of O.S has been taken totally out of context. Certainly on this blog and most everywhere else to boot.
*See Arizona Slim’s post above.
“Shifting the demand curve on the time axis was one of the problems of the bubble and cannot be its solution.”
Although highly frustrating for wannabe buyers, I think the deliberate policy of slowing down the crash possibly has a beneficial effect in keeping our financial lives orderly. OK, I am biased, as I am always saying I want amortization to keep up with my clients’ home depreciation. And like everyone here I don’t appreciate paying actual money (tax) to subsidize RE agents etc. However, I think the only people among us who are rooting for chaos are the ones with the big weapons caches, stored food, etc.
az_lender,
I couldn’t agree more. I suppose there are those out there that think in “rooting for chaos” they will somehow not be the -victim- of said chaotic environment and that they will additionally not only profit but that they will be elevated to the station in life they were originally intended to be at?
Or that ‘in’ the chaos they will be able to make a mad grab and stash to place them on the top o’ the heep and they didn’t much care for the old system anyway!
Couldn’t agree more.
I think we do ourselves a disservice to assume that that the PTB don’t really understand what is going on.
A semi-controlled winding down, causing the least amount of stress to the maximum number of people seems sensible to me - and I say that as one of the many freshly unemployed, having seen my startup company fail after 5 years this spring.
“I say that as one of the many freshly unemployed, having seen my startup company fail after 5 years this spring.”
Am so sorry to hear it albakes.
Hope you get on your feet soon.
have you all noticed that everytime there is a tax *rebate*, gas prices go up until the point that this extra spendable cash is soaked up by the oil industry. now there is this *house rebate* that props up house prices until this extra liquidity is soaked up by the financial industry. legal looting?
Why not?
It’s just money - they can keep increasing the credit all the way. Sure, it’ll help destroy the dollar (which should already be suffering more than it is), but until people are enjoying $5 a gallon gas (or worse), nothing will be done. After all, a “strong housing market” is key to the Ponziconomy.
Looks like I need to extend my lease 5 years at a time instead of just 1 year. I can’t believe how fast the year goes by when you are a renter and the landlord subsidizes your housing.
Another HBB theme that the rest of America was late to grasp:
CHICAGO (Market Watch) — Nearly half of American adults who participated in a recent survey said they no longer believe that homeownership is a realistic way to build wealth, the National Foundation for Credit Counseling reported on Monday.
The findings, from a recent survey of about 1,000 people, run counter to the long-held perception that a home should be part of a person’s financial strategy, the NFCC said.
“It had been considered the cornerstone of wealth building,” said Gail Cunningham, spokeswoman for the NFCC. Homeownership had been a significant tool that most people felt was necessary to prepare for retirement, she said in a phone interview.
The survey was conducted because the organization was curious about future implications of living through the mortgage meltdown, she said. Whether consumers reflect on their own experience or are just “observing the guy in the cubicle next door,” conditions have caused many people to change their attitudes about housing, she said.
Wait until that says 75% and then buy.Buy low and sell high.don’t get too greedy.I keep hearing people say, only if I sold a couple years ago.
Comment by arizonadude
2009-06-23 07:10:19
“Buy low and sell high.”
Always good advice azdude, but a good many of us will likely be dead and gone by the time the next buy low/sell high opportunity presents.
True, but “buy low” will present an opportunity in 1-3 years for people who intend to stay put. And the sheeple will likely miss that opportunity. They always buy high and sell low.
Well said. Most of us will catch the new low if patience persists. Assuming tortoise position.
Did the friggin’ thought ever occur to these something for nothing pukes that working, saving and delaying consumption is how “wealth” is accumulated?
The publishers clearinghouse/vegas/hit the jackpot fantasy really needs to die in a big way.
“Did the friggin’ thought ever occur to these something for nothing pukes that working, saving and delaying consumption is how “wealth” is accumulated?”
For many years, I equated the Liberal Democrat philosophy to be ” Something for Nothing, Legislating Wealth for the Masses Out Of Thin Air”. Now, I don’t blame the Democrats in particular. I blame the ignorant and apathetic electorate.
At this point in time, I don’t suggest that picking between Democrat or Republican is the way to vote or the answer to the problems that ail us.
At this point in time I suggest that there is NO WAY to legislate or spend lasting wealth out of thin air.
There is no substitute for applying oneself to the current economy as best one can, to be frugal, to reduce expectations. There is no substitute for the unbeatable combination of hard work, experience, and education. There is no future for a soveriegn nation having open borders to provide unlimited welfare programs for all who show up. There is no sustainable growth possible when corporations are politically “too big to fail”. There is no limit to the greed and corruption of elected officials when the populace is apathetic and ignorant.
Aw, come on, cobalt. Saving, and delaying consumption aren’t fun. Neither are hard work, experience, and education.
“Hard work might pay off in the future…….laziness pays off now”
Last paragraph was spot on Cobalt…..
I’ve had RE agents cite the “homeownership is the true path to wealth, statistics show it” to me before. In response, I always point out that it isn’t homeownership causes wealth, but rather that having wealth enables homeownership.
That always causes a reaction.
And except for crazy-bubble times, home equity is normally a great STORE of wealth, not a SOURCE of it.
And except for crazy-bubble times, home equity is normally a great STORE of wealth, not a SOURCE of it.
Bingo.
Though many would say it’s not really a great store of wealth either - given property taxes, maintenance, etc.. In the end it generally ends up being a relative wash, depending on the type of property.
…store of great amounts of wealth….
–I’ve fixed it.
Although normally it DOES hold value against inflation in the long term, AND it returns an in-kind dividend of housing, so even with interest payments and maintenance it isn’t THAT BAD of a store of wealth.
‘ I’ve had RE agents cite the “homeownership is the true path to wealth, statistics show it” to me before. In response, I always point out that it isn’t homeownership causes wealth, but rather that having wealth enables homeownership.
That always causes a reaction.’
+googolplex
“……the true path to wealth……”
This is ingrained into the American psyche, from a long way back.
My grandfather sharecropped for a long time, before he was able to scratch together enough cash to buy his own farm (my cousin owns it now). It was a true path to wealth/independence for him (and my cousin now), mainly because he was able to KEEP the profits his labor generated from it…….the place “cash-flowed”.
But this was a farm, something that income could be generated from. Over the years, the NAR/PTB morphed this “Real Estate = Wealth” formula to include the typical SF house, which generates NO INCOME, for the most part.
I think that’s the crux of it, exeter. Wealth become so correlated with the purchase of a house that the perception was that the purchase itself somehow made one affluent instead of the toil of living in it for 30 years, then living rent/mortgage free for the rest of your life.
“that the purchase itself”
+1
Just need to get your name on those loan doc’s and you’re golden!
What’s amazing to me, and we talked about trying to drive a stake thru the heart of speculation yesterday, but the American Public is all “lube’d up and ready for more action” while… Corporate America is trembling in fear!
Even if they have no correlation WHATsoever to REIC-related sectors. Where’s THEIR greed?
Not amazing at all, since the wealthy et al are the ones who aren’t likely to get back all the money that they’ve lent to the profligate majority, so OF COURSE corporate America is trembling in fear.
Jim A,
That’s why I took pains to point out “Non-REIC-related” companies. Why should the CEO of a utility or mining company etc. be trembling?
Leave it to cobaltblue to turn it into a screech fest.
I thought that cobalt was being very circumspect. You should give some credit, exeter.
“There is no limit to the greed and corruption of elected officials when the populace is apathetic and ignorant.”
The populace has no voice anyway. Being involved and informed makes little difference to the level of greed and corruption of elected officials.
Jon,
True enough, and I’ve never felt more helpless ( and I lived through the Fall of the Marcos’ Empire ) but elected officials didn’t for the most part engage directly in bidding wars and equity skimming.
Facilitated… maybe?
Being involved and informed makes little difference to the level of greed and corruption of elected officials.
So far in the HB that has proved true. However, I think there can be a tipping point when enough of the electorate becomes involved, informed, and self-organizes to turn the courses of elections. I don’t know when (or if) that will occur.
“I think there can be a tipping point when enough of the electorate becomes involved, informed, and self-organizes to turn the courses of elections. I don’t know when (or if) that will occur.”
This only makes sense if someone is running who actually wants to do the right thing and has the funding to let people know it. The two are mutually exclusive.
Ron Paul had the funding and wanted to do the right thing… look where he wound up.
I blame the MSM for basically ignoring him.
I blame the MSM for basically ignoring him.
I’d also blame the ignorant masses who look for sound-bites rather than well-reasoned, intelligent discourse.
It all started with the 1996 election and how they kept Perot out of the debates….
http://www.fec.gov/pres96/presgen1.htm
why don’t you include the media for glamorizing wealth and making people believe that it is theirs as well for next to free.
“Did the friggin’ thought ever occur to these something for nothing pukes that working, saving and delaying consumption is how “wealth” is accumulated?”
The thought certainly occurred to Adam Smith, since he made it a central theme of the Wealth of Nations.
We need more people like him (and you) these days.
I didn’t think this would happen but I’m agreeing with the “commie”.
Yep, the nation is slowly crawling its way to capitulation
considered the cornerstone of wealth building ??
Why is the aspect of wealth building “ever” factored in ?? Can’t you make a sound argument for home ownership without wealth building ?? I believe I can…
It puts a roof over your head when it’s raining.
So does a $3.99 umbrella.
Yeah but can you take off all your cloth and shower under the umbrella?
Sure you can. You just go in and out of the rain.
“Yeah but can you take off all your cloth and shower under the umbrella?”
Awaiting OlyGal’s response…
You bet. As long as you’re not in downtown Olympia, that is. Buncha prudes…
But do you know, the subject of rain and clothlessness has long been of great interest to me, ever since I came to a place with rain in it.
Why, I’m thinking of applying for a research grant!
I love to go back to Jack Kemp. In the Reagan era he promulgated the idea that poor people will take better care of their dwelling places if they “own” them in some fashion. This was perfectly true, but the fact that the R party was on board to promote home”owner”ship among persons who couldn’t own OUTRIGHT meant that a two-party policy of promoting loose credit for mortgages took a firm hold for 25 years.
Kemp’s observation was a good societal arg for promoting home”owner”ship, but look where it got us.
The “theory” was valid….
But between the Democrats “give away the house” method of managing expenditures, and the Repubs/some Democrats “Our buddies need to make a buck out of this….” modus operandi, it quickly turned into another giant Charlie-Foxtrot.
I would clarify the long-term wealth aspect by suggesting that He who buys at the bottom and can clearly show that purchase is less than rent has got the gift that keeps on giving.
Kind of like being in the Jelly of the Month Club.
‘Nearly half of American adults who participated in a recent survey said they no longer believe that homeownership is a realistic way to build wealth, the National Foundation for Credit Counseling reported on Monday.”
I see it and wish that it were true but I don’t believe it. I’ve too many friends that would agree with that and then turn around and tell you why their situation is different. This time next year we’ll have some real converts.
Do housing bubble make otherwise sane people go bananas (or cucumber in this case), even at a church charity line? Or is this typical of Floridians (based on what HBB folks say about Floridians, I am beginning to think that maybe the case).
Cucumber assault reported in Lehigh
Last updated on: 6/22/2009 12:54:05 PM
LEHIGH ACRES: Deputies were called to a Lehigh Acres church Saturday afternoon after a reported cucumber assault.
Timica Pinder told deputies she was picking up free vegetables at Lehigh Christian Church at 50 Bell Boulevard around 1:30 p.m. when another woman at the function got mad and whacked her in the back of the head with a vegetable.
Pinder turned and threw her own cucumber at her alleged assailant, at which point church members asked both to leave.
The woman was identified by another person at the event and deputies went to her home to talk about what happened.
She said she had collected a number of vegetables in a box when Pinder started helping herself to the stash.
The woman said she told Pinder to get her own vegetables, and Pinder slapped her - leading to the cucumber hostilities.
She told deputies she wasn’t interested in pursuing the case because it was “nonsense.”
The church should have learned from Wall Street and just “sliced up” those vegetables…
Interesting idea. A cucumber cut into the following tranches/slices:
1) Senior slice: the middle juiciest part of the cucumber, for people who lost jobs through no fault of their own.
2) Mezzanie slice: the part between the middle and the end, which tend to be smaller and less juicy. For underwater FBs.
3) Equity slice: the ends. For ex-realtors and mortage bankers.
Equity slices tend to be imaginary.
That’s why I saved it for the worst….
cougar91,
I’ll chalk it up to the heat. One thing extremist/survivalists are never willing to entertain is that a “chaotic event” ( like having to do without power for a few days ) needn’t necessarily result in a societal meltdown?
Nor one that lasts permanently. Has anyone ever considered that not having 38 different brands of mustard and gas “priced for cruising” ‘may’ not result in an onverthrow of the government?
“having 38 different brands of mustard”
Dude, we’ve been over this! You obviously have lumpenbuds, incapable of discerning the subtle, delicious nuances.
Muggy,
Good point! And you’re right, we have, but that doesn’t deny me my basic right to riot in the streets and scale the fence of your gated community in search of basic cable when it’s been cut off to the commoners?!?
Oh, please, please. please pick my gate!!!
Mid August, electric grid goes down in entire western states for hours. Never ever knew so many people lived in my complex in the mid 90s. “howdydo, neighbor, quit splashing me in the pool”
About 30 ppl in the 1 pool to keep cool.
This is the funniest “non-food use of a cucumber” thread I’ve read in quite some time. What’s even more amazing is the lack of reference to the letters K and Y.
Those KY are expensive in this economy… substituting WD-40 instead.
There is a song called “Baby Babysitter” by Princess Superstar (It’s on youtube). I dunno what it is, but the cucumber reference reminds me of that song. (They can’t play it on the air in USA because it’s too dirty but overseas it was fair game).
“Or is this typical of Floridians”
This is as normal as it gets in Florida, especially South Florida.
Um, this isn’t normal behavior in the rest of the country?
In Baltimore they smack each other upside the head with collard greens. (if there isn’t a plastic flamingo close at hand)
Collard greens leave no marks.
You know, for all that is wrong with S. Florida, I find myself keep going back every year. I am a saltwater fishing fanatic and there is no better place for it than S. Florida, especially the Keys. Love catching them big jacks, tarpons and bottom-feeding groupers. If I ever buy a house in Florida it would only be for that single purpose/reason.
Sheesh…Good thing these “Church Lady” types weren’t “packing heat” !
They may not all be unemployed, just underemployed. Ive noticed very light AM traffic on the freeways on Monday and Fridays for the last month or so. Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays rush hour (for the 20 minute rush we have here in Ohio) is noticeably heavier. This would coincide with workers having 4 day weeks where they all cant be off on the same day but do gravitate to M or F, or, shorter work days, or both. This is what I see at my place of employ; all salaried must take off 1 day out of 2 week pay period; hourly are mostly on 7 hour shifts. How will this reduction in pay affect pay stubs and W-2’s when they go for refinancing or for that new mortgage next year? It cant help. The good news is that a lot of people at work tell me that they are having to live on a strict budget; I see more people bagging their lunch. Last year it was chinese or pizza delivery every day. Maybe people will have more $$ for a down payment in a year or so of this…..
“…reduction in pay affect pay stubs and W-2’s…”
Not only is this a big deal for those workers, but all our pols ought to be taking note as well. Some of the declines in state and local tax revenues I’ve read are already quite alarming. Declines of around ~25% are no longer exceptional.
From the WSJ article just the other day (posted a few times in the BB) - the average decline in tax revenue for the states this past year was 26% in fact.
It’s not just tax revenue for the states that’s declined precipitously. Local municipalities are taking on the chin as well.
Fallout measures at the local level include selling off assets (as our mayor did in privatizing parking meters); attempting to boost revenue through a myriad of tax-and-fee schemes as well as stepped-up enforcement of piddly offenses; and — heaven forbid — some layoffs and mandatory furloughs for municipal workers. I personally didn’t think that civil servants would feel the bite anytime soon, but yep, they are no longer completely immune to forces in the external world.
ET-Chicago,
Right, heaven forbid! Nor have they been subject to the threat of outsourcing.
We have had zero raises for 3 years. 15% of staff has been cut. 135 were furloughed starting June 1. We will have massive increases in health care costs causing an effective pay reduction this year. Further furloughs are coming. We will also be shutting down some libraries and parks. Most social spending will be eliminated. Mostly for community groups that help folks with Alzheimers, shelters for abused women & children, food pantries and homeless shelters.
On the upside, we’ve eliminated most development fees so that developers can put up lots of single family residences without having to pay for the impact on roads, fire & police. The taxpayers can pick up that tab down the road.
It’s interesting how the civil servants take layoffs and furloughs, but never actual pay cuts.
Actually, CA is starting the process for an ‘across the board’ pay cut with layoffs (unsure of the fraction of layoffs). One ‘associate’ of mine (who must remain anonymous) has been informed that his entire staff is taking a 8% pay cut (including my source); when managers complained, they were informed it was nearly universal across the state. True? I don’t know. But one group of state employees is taking a 8% cut. Soon.
The ‘invisible hand’ is striking. Oh… its the starter blow.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Sounds like a good start.
sfbubblebuyer,
After years… of unrestrained growth in gov’t, are any of us really expected to get bent out of shape over a handful of public employees getting let go?
Notice how they throw all of the services under the bus before the even -consider- tightening the belt on the Holy Grail of pension benefits? But, it’s ‘your’ fault! ( I feel SO ashamed )
the once every 2 week furlough is already a 10% pay cut. you are talking of an additional 8% on top of that.
Taxpayer guaranteed pensions need to go. I’m fine if there is a pension/retirement/403b/whatever plan set up, but if it goes broke or down from incompetent management, them’s the breaks. Taxpayer’s don’t make up for 401k losses for me, why should we make up for government pension losses?
And with not enough daily workers you have to close libraries parks pools, fun stuff
It’s interesting how the civil servants take layoffs and furloughs, but never actual pay cuts.
Right, heaven forbid! Nor have they been subject to the threat of outsourcing.
DinOR: strangely enough, it seems the main governmental role subject to outsourcing is national defense (see: Halliburton, KBR, Blackwater et al), something A.) we seem to do relatively well, and B.) should not be the realm of for-profit entities.
CA bankruptcy is the only way to get rid of fat pension contracts. I’m hoping for it. I’m also looking forward to 8% salary cut.
ET-Chicago,
Certainly wasn’t an effort on ‘my’ part to put a pol. spin on it. It’s a simple statement. What workers of all the people in America have ‘zero’ fear of having their job outsourced?
Ans. Gov’t workers.
Geez, not -everything- “ties in” w/ the Iraq War.
the once every 2 week furlough is already a 10% pay cut. you are talking of an additional 8% on top of that.
Yes. 8% base pay cut with furloughs too. As I originally posted, layoffs are expected.
CA bankruptcy is the only way to get rid of fat pension contracts.
The pensions must be adjusted drastically.
I honestly thought I had buried that comment deep enough it would be ignored… silly me. There is a reason I didn’t blog it. My source does not want to be ‘outed.’
Got Popcorn?
Neil
As it’s been said before on this blog…..
“When the Krill die (”Value-Added” employment), so do the whales (government/infrastructure maintenance)”.
Certainly wasn’t an effort on ‘my’ part to put a pol. spin on it.
I wasn’t trying to spin it, either — I think it’s a valid observation on my part that the one government sector most actively outsourcing (to my knowledge) is the DOD. The outsourcing they’ve done, ironically, has been largely ineffective on a monetary basis, on an efficiency basis, and on a safety basis.
There are many government tasks, large and small, better suited to private sector outsourcing. And I think we agree that when that’s the case, the outsourcing should happen.
Where is it actually happening, however? One of the few places it shouldn’t.
the declines in state and local tax revenues ??
Yep, but they will get it back through their stealth raising of fee’s…You won’t see much in the way of layoffs…Maybe some peripheral furloughs just to throw the average joe tax payer a some raw meat…Example; Just yesterday I called to have the utilities on a rental that I own turned into my name so I can prepare for the next tenant..There is now a “new” $20. fee to change the name on the account AND then another $20. fee to change it back a week later into the new tenants name…The “Greedy Hand” is going to get you one way or another…
The “Greedy Hand” is going to get you one way or another… Then there will be a monthly fee simply to keep the account open, whether or not any utilities are actually consumed. This happened some years ago to my natural gas bill, with a monthly fee being charged even if I consumed zero natural gas that month. Prior to that time, zero consumption meant no payment at all was due. Yet another fee was added on to the natural gas I consumed, for the “transport” of the gas through the pipelines to my house. In the future I expect there will be another fee for the energy released by the burning of the natural gas, along with a government-mandated fee for the release of CO2 when that happens.
There’s a very good book called Gotcha Capitalism by Bob Sullivan. It’s about nuisance fees and the billions of dollars that companies make off of them.
” …For A Limited Time, Get Yours Free!! (just pay shipping and handling)…..”
Nuisance fees…that’s why I keep hanging up on that guy from India who keeps phoning to tell me I’ve won $300 worth of free coupons for WalMart merchandise and gasoline. I just have to pay $3.95 to his company for “processing” or something. I don’t stay on the phone long enough to hear if he also “needs” my Visa number.
fee simply to keep the account open ??
Oh thats been in place around here for as long as I can remember….When you add it all up, it runs roughly $50. per month in fixed fee’s on a vacant unit with “zero” actual utilities used…
Oh thats been in place around here for as long as I can remember You must be way younger than I. When I moved in here, my gas bill had no extra fees, it was strictly for the amount of gas consumed.
You must be way younger than I ??
High probability you are incorrect there…Not sure where you live but around here there is standard fee’s for having the account active…I have a “basic” gas bill charge even though during the summer I do not use any gas…Same goes for water, garbage, sewer and electricity…I could shut my house down for the summer and the total of all my fixed utility fee’s would easily exceed $100./Mo.
High probability you are incorrect there
Nope, 30 years ago I moved into this place. Then, zero consumption meant a zero bill.
Sure, no doubt about it. There’s a pattern here though, and it doesn’t bode well for the “ownership” argument.
I’d say that those fees don’t bode well for the “wanting somewhere to live” position. Long run, those fees will make it into rents even if they get absorbed by landlords in the short run.
Your correct there Al…
If folks are being made to work under the 40 hr level, then are the companies taking away their health insurance, because they are not working full time?
Wal Mart does that with their emps. Just a few hrs shy of FT 40.
OK then play the game make less then $700 a month get medicaid use as much as possible then get back to a almost full time job.
Then mysteriously lose hours so you make less then $700 mo…and reapply…….
But you do need to save in the meantime……I’m trying to game the system wish me luck
If you really want to play you take your food stamps and sell them for 50c on the dollar to people exiting the friendly neighborhood liquor store.
Companies have all kinds of ways of taking away health insurance, but various employers offer health-plan participation to persons working as little as 17 hours a week. I don’t know if this is something mandated by state laws or just what was customary in a time when the job market was stronger. (I think I experienced that 17-hr cutoff both in Mass and in Calif.)
Has got to be state mandated. Which MA is one of the good ones.
Had some general thoughts about “sustainability”. Seems to me that the picture just keeps getting bleaker and bleaker, in that more and more of our current economy is based on things that are temporary fixes, and that borrow from future growth. Are we finally getting to a point of no returns?
Long term:
1. Social security and medicare systems are the classic and well-known case. Forecast to be running deficits by 2016 (SS) and 2009 (Medicare), and be completely depleted by 2037 (SS) and 2017 (Medicare).
2. Not sure the exact numbers on pensions, but there have been several articles how they’re in similar shape
3. Boomer retirement will begin to deplete the economy rather than grow it. (*If* the boomers ever retire)
Medium term:
4. Credit/mortgage rates have been incredibly low now for some time (5-6% for about 5 years), and generally low for a really long time (5-8% for about 15 years). This is borrowing from future affordability.
5. Of course we’ve still got a huge mortgage debt bubble - prices have fallen a lot but debt has not much at all yet.
6. Now we’ve got an incredible government debt bubble growing - this will steal from future productivity due to the costs to service this debt.
Short term:
7. There has been a *lot* of recent profit at the banks just from refinacing - this will be completely gone now that rates are rising again.
8. Same for loan rework programs - eventually these will be gone
9. The bulk of stimulus package spending is 2009 and 2010.
10. Foreclosure moratoriums and the FASB rule change have allowed banks to put off taking losses; at some point though the piper must be paid.
Did I miss any?
Anyone else like me and just think that - short of hyperinflation - we may *never* reach the same level of either the stock market or GDP in our lifetimes - quite possibly in nominal terms even?
Dang - just realize I left off an easy one - the $8k tax credit for homebuyers.
Add to that the cash-for-clunkers soon.
packman,
Not doubting a word of it. Likely much of that will come to pass. Again though, what’s imperative is that we sift through those likely outcomes and determine ‘which’ of them are the result of the HB ( and ‘which’ ones would have occured without it? )
Here ( ironically ) we seem to like to focus on the issues that would have surfaced regardless.
PackMan,
Stepping back from the forest for a minute can summ up by saying that .gov has laid out the optimal conditions for propping up asset prices, and the slide continues.
Soon, any number of variables could switch directions and accelerate the slide.
Rising Interest….
A Bank unloads REO…
.gov torches the equity market hoping to save the bond market…
A state could go bust, taking this whole mess in a brand new direction…
SomeBody StoP mE !
“a state” could go bust
Come come, we all know which state we’re talking about, don’t we?
We’re talkin’ about CALI! It’ll be interesting to see what happens. After years of being a net exporter of federal tax money, will they get to be a net importer for awhile?
“…Did I miss any?”
Hey packy, you need to take in a NY Yankee’s box seat game against the Washington Nationals complete with gourmet hot dogs and imported beer, then go on a Disney cruise vacation…the world will soon feel less foreboding.
That’d be great though I prefer to watch my Sox beat up on the Yankers. I live near DC but just can’t get into any of the local teams. I suspect when my kids get old enough though I’ll end up being a Nats fan. I’m not so sure that’s less foreboding though, given that they’ve got by far the worst record in the league.
Perhaps that’s what you meant though.
#1 - means testing will solve that problem
#2 - a good douse of inflation, 10% for a few years will take care of pension obligations
#3 - Those Starbucks baristas are in big trouble
IMO, Your assumption on #1 is a absolute “Lock”….And…Its going to happen sooner than we all think…
#1 - means testing will solve that problem
Yeah, that’s in part why I think there’s an ever-growing “shadow means” out there.
#3 - Those Starbucks baristas are in big trouble
If nothing else, those Starbuck’s baristas get caffeine and health insurance, both valuable commodities in this world.
How much longer can there be Starbucks on opposing corners?? A decrease in consumer spending will hit them very hard, not to mention the “McCafe”.
not to mention the “McCafe” I think McD’s will be one of the last “restaurants” to suffer from a drop in consumer spending. A Big Mac will be the luxury of last resort.
I’m in no way condoning the virus-like growth of Starbuck’s, merely pointing out that their employees can get health insurance even when working part-time — which places them at least one rung above their fellow McJob holders.
Which has more nutritional value;
One Buck Mcdee’s Or One Buck Chuck ??
So do you think means testing will be applied to income, or to savings, or to overall net worth?
It has to be ALL total income What good is a million dollars if you get 2% interest…
They should Include tax free income too…..Why should some one get $30-50+K a year tax free, plus their pension 401k .. and then get SS and medicare to boot?
Maybe because they paid into SS and Medicare? High earners dump a lot of money into both programs.
+1 sfbb. I’ve paid the max for the past 20 years. we will see larger cap increases, before means testing.
My wife and I are paying in at the max, and have been pretty consistently, yet we are the ones who will get our services cut.
It really is becoming more obvious that having taxes to keep the poor people from rioting becomes untenable as the number of ‘poor’ people rise. 20 years from now we’ll either have had another wealth correction like happened during the first great depression (and subsequent increase in middle class) or we’ll have the rich living armed in walled compounds like Mexico and the rest of us living off the scraps.
Don’t you think the ultra rich would love America to be more like Mexico? All the wealth in the hands of a few (hiding behind walls) and the rest of the masses too beat down to rise up.
“Don’t you think the ultra rich would love America to be more like Mexico? All the wealth in the hands of a few (hiding behind walls) and the rest of the masses too beat down to rise up.”
Yes. For some reason the politcal and social elites seem to want this country to become a third world hell hole. Why? Cheap labor? Votes? Social experimentation? Are they just misguided do-gooders puffing on the Utopian crack pipe?
I bet net worth, similar to how Medicaid eligibility is determined.
I can see it on a sliding scale matrix. Not like “cliff vesting”. Ooops, you made a penny over! Too bad, so sad.
Just b/c you inheritied tons of land shouldn’t in any way be counted against you. Sure, you have a lot of net worth on paper, but none of it is liquid! How would ‘that’ be fair?
Who said anything about “fair” ??
+1 az….
Good question DennisN…I have thought about this often not only for SS but for medical & medicaid…My guess is income…I think it being based on net worth would be difficult to verify…
Workmans comp, and other insurances won’t be a burden on corps and small biz owners if universal ins/public option is made available. Thereby saving biz lots of money to offer more jobs or profit. Nations military is gov owned and run and single payers health ins is doing okay with them.
Did I miss any?
Anyone else like me and just think that - short of hyperinflation - we may *never* reach the same level of either the stock market or GDP in our lifetimes - quite possibly in nominal terms even?
What about the higher-ed bubble?
There was some discussion about in yesterday’s Bits. The rate of inflation in tuition prices coupled with the declining ROI for many (most) degrees is untenable in the medium- to long-term.
Nah - the education tuition rise is symptom of the housing bubble - nothing less.
Problem with a higher-ed “bubble” is that you can’t sell your eduction, like you can your house, your stocks, your bonds, etc. Bubble mania is driven by the desire to get something for nothing, and the only way to get ROI for education is to invest a lot of time and effort.
However you do bring up one point - education is one offsetting factor to all the “borrowing from the future” ones listed. The high unemployment rate is contributing to a higher rate of enrollment in things like community colleges and such, and long-term that will be a good thing with regards to actual contributions to the economy.
Nah - the education tuition rise is symptom of the housing bubble - nothing less.
By that logic, aren’t they both symptoms of an all-pervasive credit bubble?
No. Bubbles generally have some kind of asset/investment class as their base, with price speculation taking place targeted at that class - e.g. tulips, real estate, stocks, commodities, technology, etc. Some bubbles can actually have multiple asset classes, as did the 1920’s stock/RE bubble. The 2000-201x bubble is very much a bubble based specifically on the real estate class.
There are other things that went along for the ride - e.g. consumer goods that were purchased with HELOCs etc., but the vast majority of the new credit had real estate as its backing security, and real estate was the primary speculative investment.
In other words, people don’t invest in “credit” - they invest in tangible things, and a bubble is defined by overpricing of these tangible things based on speculation, and using credit simply as a medium for the speculation.
Packman, I understand what you’re saying, I just disagree with the diagnosis.
“…..you can’t sell your education…..”
Actually, you ARE selling your education. Why go to college if a Harvard MBA gets paid the same money as your typical McDonald’s employee?
The problem is that the education/income rationale falls apart when the cost of college goes up, but the income said education can generate is going down, mainly due to outsourcing/globalization and misallocated priorities (the “best and brightest” all going to Finance/Wall Street, instead of into science and engineering).
I wonder. On the one hand, we do see that our economy’s slide into the toilet coincided with a decline of real educational output (not to be confused with years of schooling, etc.). On the other hand, there are countries like Romania with highly educated populations and nothing for them to do a/c poor infrastructure and lack of capital.
Help is on the way!
Monday, Jun. 22, 2009
Comments (0)
New Washington law gives college tuition break The Associated Press
OLYMPIA, Wash. A law that takes effect July 1 in Washington will extend in-state college tuition rates to foreign professionals, their spouses and children.
The Seattle Times reports that some lawmakers called it the “Microsoft subsidy bill” because they say the software company and its workers could afford to pay the higher tuition rates. It helps foreign professionals in the country on temporary work visas, such as the H-1B.
…..
Rep. Bob Hasegawa, D-Seattle, opposed the measure, calling it unfair to resident students at a time when the state is making it more difficult for everyone to afford to go to school in the state.
“It’s a diversion of limited resources,” Hasegawa said. “We only allow X amount of slots for resident tuition rates and we are displacing those residents with H-1B visa holders, their families and dependents. Microsoft can well afford out-of-state tuition for its people.”
Oh, July 1st is gonna bring all sorts of exciting events hereabouts. That’s the day the first big bunch of state-employee lay-offs go into effect, for one thing…
Boy, it’s good things are ‘different ‘ here, huh? Or else that rising unemployment thingie could have an impact or something…
For shore Olygal…I forsee a big run on geoducks and red seaweed, better get used to carrying a sawed-off shotgun with that digging chant and little bucket.
LOL, Oly. You’re starting to sound like Prof. Bear.
Geez, when you put it like that packman..
2 things, Palm Springs is shutting down convention center when no conventions, so as to save on utilities etc.
And, a giant nuclear reactor is being driven through the valley today, closing roads.
I’ve been thinking about this for a while. In a lot of ways it is impossible to save enough to make a system like social security work. The reason is no mater how much you save, when that large of a percentage of a population retires the costs of what ever it is you need will skyrocket. So, even if the fund had a surplus it would be gone quickly due to the demographics.
How could we store enough wealth in a meaningful way to support this? Food. Could be done but would be disgusting. Housing… maybe… houses need a good bit of mantinance and energy. How about medical care? Will not work unless you have a large supply of doctors. Same with medicine. How about transportation? Again almost impossible task.
The idea is that we can support 1/3 of the population while they are non-productive is always going to be problematic.
I have an idea. Its probably not a great idea but an idea. Why don’t we end unemployment and force people to work at least 24 hrs per week in some kind of government works program. Same money as unemployment but instead of total free loaders we get some community support. That or force them into some kind of education opporitunity program. Yeah, we did this in the great depression but its better than welfare/inactivity exc.
Unless productivity increases of course…
+1 James.
I’ve always been opposed to handouts whether it is for poor welfare folks or social security recipients. And SS is just a welfare program. There was never any money invested.
If you can’t work because of health issues, fine. If you can, I have no problem paying taxes to give you some kind of job: cleaning streets, painting over graffiti, picking fruits, whatever. If you can and choose not to, then starve, I don’t care. Your kids can starve too, I don’t care.
Every citizen who wants to contribute should have the opportunity to do so. If you don’t want to contribute don’t expect anything from anyone else.
James, your point about the impossibility of supporting a huge retired population is a point that I kept wondering about when I was 20 (in 1965). I was (obviously) on the leading edge of the BBoom, and I thought, “who is going to produce the goods and services to care for old people when too many people are old?” You are absolutely right, it had nothing at all to do with whether people saved up enough money. Luckily for me, THEY DIDN’T, which means I’ll probably be OK. The majority of BB will grow old in poverty; it was always gonna be like that no matter what their spending habits.
Well, I made back from vegas safe and sound. It was nice to get away and see what’s going on outside of California. I did not look at any of the residential houses but I did drive around and look at the cratered commercial buildings. Lots of empty space!
I lost all my money at treasure island, I think they need to re-name that casino. I sure dident find any treasure there. I was expecting to see more people there due to it being summer vacation but the place was empty compared to past visits. There were no lines for any of the restraunts we went to and noticed the more expensive ones were empty. The traffic was heavy on the way home and came to a stop twice due to accidents. Which suprised me due to the light crowds in the casinos.
Please forgive me for any misspellings, as my iPhone likes to put words in my mouth.
Takingbets,
Well, at least you had fun. It strikes me that “The Model” Vegas worked off of for years was that people would use their c/c’s for their fun, pay them off over the next year and then come down when they were “re-charged”.
Housing-based consumption changed all that didn’t it? With access to MEW $’s ( which gamble away just like real $’s ) they were able to stay longer, spend more and even buy a home there!
LV wasn’t complaining ‘then’. But like all binges, it had to come to an end. I’ll wager they’d give -anything- to have the old model back?
Takingbets,
We forgive any misspellings, but shouldn’t you change your screen name from “Takingbets” to “Makingbets” ?
Another potential source of income gone… no more surprise sweepstakes win knocks on your door.
Ed McMahon passed away at 86.
RIP Ed.
Ed was actually a highly-decorated WWII fighter pilot, who also served in Korea.
They were talking about his foreclosure problem on the today show about 10 minutes ago.I think he ran out of money towards the end.It must be hell to outlive your money.
Yep. Ed got a little wacko late in life - suing everyone for everything, and winning settlements actually, but still lost about everything. I heard his wife really liked living beyond their means.
It’s sad actually, since I know that happens to a lot of elderly, e.g. my MIL. They often just lose their financial sense. The best thing that can happen is if someone with good sense can look out for them. Having lived in Florida for several years though - it’s really amazing and disturbing the amount of fraudsters who target retirees.
They often just lose their financial sense. It’s been said the knees are the first things to go, but I am beginning to think financial sense goes first, for many elderly.
Gawd I hope that doesn’t happen to me or the hub. I’m already a little nutty about hobby spending, and him with his tools.
Probably the worst thing a senile citizen can have is home eq and we got lots right now.
He lived like in a multimillion dollar Beverly Hills home with a 34 year old younger sex toy. He used up every penny having fun, and was never destitute. It was a real struggle.
Ah, Tim, a 52 year old woman is not a “sex toy”.
To an 86 year old, she is…
17 years ago when he married her she was…:-)
he has fun then, except for the last few months. not bad i would add.
Ed was actually a highly-decorated WWII fighter pilot, who also served in Korea.
He actually did not see combat in WWII, but did receive numerous medals for service in Korea.
Yeah, though technically “fighter pilot” doesn’t necessarily imply combat. From Wikipedia:
“During World War II, McMahon was a fighter pilot in the United States Marine Corps serving as a flight instructor and test pilot. He was a decorated pilot and was discharged in 1946, remaining in the reserves.”
Kudos to Ed for serving our country. I’ll give him a thank you for that honorabe contribution.
However, I met him and his wife briefly at The Sportsman Lodge in Los Angeles County, and they we not very classy people on the inside,imo. Both were arrogant.
He made so much $ in his lifetime ($M’s), he should have died rich. No excuses.
they we not very classy people on the inside,imo. Both were arrogant. Nobody’s perfect, and we all wind up dead eventually.
Yes, but some are less perfect than others.
And most are less perfect than me.
And most are less perfect than me. And I am humbler than both of you put together, so there!
Modesty is a fault and I have no faults.
Most modest people have a lot to be modest about.
That was Churchill’s dig at Clement Atlee:
“A modest man - with much to be modest about.”
I actually liked Ed but in ways, he embodied every advantage minorities ‘assume’ ALL white males are given as their ‘birthright’.
Back then ( before minorities were allowed to do anything but cook and clean in the military ) all a guy had to do to get into flight training was have reasonably good vision and not be deaf. Ed then parlayed that into a lifelong lucrative career.
Uh… do any of you know how hard it is to get into flight school ‘these’ days? I think fewer than 1 in 1,000 applicants make it through the process. Even then, there’s no assurance you won’t be “washed out” for the slightest mistake. And of course no assurance you’ll find employment when you get out, regardless of race?
Well, FWIW:
A. It’s a little bit tougher to fly military planes these days, given the small technological tweaks of the past 60 years.
B. There was a bit more demand for pilots in WWII than there is now.
Ummm…I seem to recall Pres Obama inviting the surviving members of the Tuskegee airman to the White House….
DinOR,
You have expressed my view of the so-called “greatest generation” that sired the boomers.
If you were a white man and reasonably sober most of the time, you got put on a lifetime employment gravy train for life.
Yes my dad did live through the Depression - as a teenager. What better time in life to live through a Depression than as a carefree teenager? My grandparents suffered much more due to job loss etc.
When he got back from WWII, his sister’s FIL got him a job at the phone company, where he progressed from lineman to supervisor. Finally, with no formal education, he was promoted to a cushy lifetime-employment middle-management job where his staff did all the work for him. Lifetime employment, 2 hour 4 martini lunches, fat pension when he as pushed into early retirement for sexually harassing women staff members.
And he was representative of the “greatest generation”?
DinOr,
Considering our piolets aren’t getting shot at as often its probably a little bit easier to get people for the job.
They are also somewhat lucrative positions and officers.
WW2 we were sending guys into the meat grinder.
Not sure how hard it is to get into a military flight school but the local non-military is pretty easy. Just need a bucket of money.
packman,
Remember, the airplane was a fairly ‘new fangled thang’ at the time and most of those farmboys had little or NO exposure to aviation. There was no PlayStation back then. It was the equivalent of giving them the keys to the Space Shuttle.
DennisN,
I didn’t want to be the guy to have to say it, so thanks. I’ve cold called a -million- of those guys. Besides, Ed was seldom sober on the show and really glamorized having a party lifestyle. “Look! It’s just that easy!” Just be like ‘me’.
There was a bit more demand for pilots in WWII than there is now. There was high demand for every possible resource then. Very high standards plummeted as the need for manpower increased. Men tried to enlist in 1941 and were turned down because they couldn’t pass the physical & then were drafted in 1943. By 1944 they were drafting kids in high school as soon as they turned 18. My uncle enlisted in 1940 when he saw the handwriting on the wall, jumped through all kinds of hoops to get assigned as a weapons tech for a P-40 so he could get a cushy job in Hawaii. He got quite a surprise one Sunday morning while he was waiting at a bus stop at Wheeler Field. By 1944 he was training replacements for himself, and had to teach them how to speak English.
sexually harassing women staff members
Ahhh…those were the good old days. I love watching “Madmen” on AMC to see how much fun it was around the office back in the day, what with all of the drinking, smoking, skirt chasing, I am surprised anything got done at all!
You’re forgetting something. In those days, the utility companies (phone, gas electric, etc.) were fully regulated entities that were guaranteed a profit. They were the next best thing to government. And at the time those jobs were better than government jobs.
Just to give you some perspective. In the 1950’s, making a long-distance phone call could cost over a dollar a minute!
But most people did NOT have friends all over the country…
And unless it was urgent like a medical emergency or death, a 4 cent letter was plenty good enough to communicate with
—————————
In the 1950’s, making a long-distance phone call could cost over a dollar a minute!
DennisN,
+1. It’s dangerous to generalize but I do think there is a large segment of the population that fits your father’s profile well.
“…..fully regulated entities guaranteed a profit……”
And still are, in some states, answerable to no one, except their regulators.
Skirt chasing still happens……but…..it’s not a good idea to be caught (by the company CEO, no less) banging your “Administrative Assistant” in your company car in the company parking lot.
It wasn’t a “career enhancing” move…..
They were making nasty comments about other people. I was there for a business meeting, and our group overheard nasty, belittling things from them. Ed and his wife, weren’t very nice. She’s not exactly a 10.
One of my uncles was a Navy fighter pilot during WWII. He stayed in the Reserves as a retired as a Captain.
One of his aging wingmen who got out of the service after the war visited and I loved HIS version of what happened one when they returned from a supposedly routine combat straifing mission on an island and they got seperated from the rest of the flight due to unexpected appearance of some Japanese fighters.
Alone, these two clowns dropped through the cloud cover in that big wide empty Pacific only to discover that they had LOST their freakin’ BOAT !
After 2-3 frantic minutes, this wingman did his own navigation computations and they headed back up into the clouds in that direction to eventually drop down to see smoke on the horizon. They both landed late but safely on the “misplaced” aircraft carrier sucking gas fumes and sweat soaked.
Him and the old guy laughed and they argued in fun about the event, with him saying that my uncle couldn’t find a whore in a cathouse with a case of Scotch, a compass and a $100 bill. He also chuckled that he was surprised that the Navy never made that “lost old fool” an admiral before he retired.
Sadly, my funny uncle, his great wingman and that lost aircraft carrier, are all far over the horizon now.
We probably lost more planes MIA on searches, than we did in combat, especially 1941-43.
The problems:
-Navigation errors by the pilot.
-Minimal, unreliable navigation aids, that didn’t work very well/ at all, when the aircraft was at a low altitude (and most searches were conducted at low altitude).
-The “runway” moved, often in unpredicatable and unannounced directions. (searches were planned assuming that carrier would be at Lat.Long “X”, at “Y” time, after aircraft was launched…….sometimes, Japanese Navy action required that the carrier deviate from the plan.
Amelia Earhart missed Howland Island with a trained, experienced navigator, an HF radio, and an island (a lot bigger than a carrier) to find and land on.
The stock market should hold its ground today, as it is not allowed to fall on FOMC meeting days…
I have some tulips for sale.
Filed under: “people have to eat”… or … “the price of coffee is due to “supply & demand” ?
“…Merrill Lynch wanted Henry to alter his computer programs to reduce volatility, Webster recalls.”
‘Markets Will Come Back’
“Merrill said other firms had made modifications to their systems and they couldn’t see that we had made those changes,” he says. “John Henry told them the markets have not changed and trends will emerge.”
“…Henry is as charged up as the sellout Fenway crowd. One swing of the bat turned the game. If his computers can capture a market trend like they did last year with oil, Henry may have a shot at another year when both the Red Sox and his investors are winners.”
Red Sox Owner Gets 91% on Oil After Striking Out on $3 Billion:
June 23 (Bloomberg) By Kambiz Foroohar
Reminds me that is must have been just gee-wow coincidental timing that the World Bank came out with its GDII - The World Is Ending report yesterday.
I swear I’m still getting screwed by the fund cos. When I try to sell, I order before the mkt opens, and if it’s an up day, there’s a delay of a couple days before it executes. If it’s a down day, BOOM it trades right away. So the big boys can sell high and buy low off peons like me, yes?
First it was Strong doing it to me, now it’s Vanguard.
That’s why people like ETFs.
Existing home sales up slightly MoM, down slightly YoY, and were somewhat lower than forecast.
This statement is funny -
So the “other” segment of the market - non-first-time buyers buying non-distressed homes - went from 0% of sales to 35% of sales in just a couple of months? Ummm… Okaayyyy.
Slaes are up in the lower segement due to investors and first time buyers.Where are the move up buyers??????????
renting
LOL - true. And I’m seeing many more old farts becoming renters here in Florida. Am also seeing a spike in short sales and foreclosures in 55+ communities, something I hadn’t expected.
Half of all sales were foreclosures, and half were not foreclosures. Half of buyers were new first time buyers, and half were not.
So there were first time buyers buying non-distressed properties as well as distressed ones and non-first time buyers buying both types of properties. He’s only remarking that the percentage of first time buyers is going down, as is the percentage of distressed property sales.
Doh! (sheepish grin)
I forgot that the two 50%’s overlap.
Never mind.
Don’t worry, Packman. Yun is STILL a d-bag. Just for other reasons.
I love how they’re focusing on MoM changes now, but when the MoM was down at the beginning of the bust (but still up YoY) they were adamant about how you must pay attention to YoY trends.
When we pass this tiny dead splat bounce and MoM goes back down far enough that even comparing revised down previous months against unrevised current optimistic month numbers can’t make things look good Yun will go back to crying about how interest rates will zoom to the moon in the next four days.
The TSA does not like it when you travel and carry too much cash:
http://consumerist.com/5300220/traveler-detained-for-carrying-too-much-cash-sues-tsa
Of course, the guy is a Ron Paul supporter, so he pretty much had it coming.
“…Officer: Why do you have this money? That’s the question, that’s the major question.”
Geez, all he had to say would be a typical standard response I give to my “True Believer” siblings at Thanksgiving dinner:
“…I’m on my way to the repubican National headquarters, I’m going to buy everyone there a cup of starmucks coffee and pass out free copies of Dale Carnegie’s “How to Win Friends and Influence People” and besides, I come from an American Amish family.
Wow, I feel so much safer with that crew on the case! Really, I’m not being sarcastic!
Yes, I am.
The TSA tends to attract people who love wielding power over their fellow humans. Petty bureaucrats, people with a chip on their shoulder, passive-aggressive types.
I almost got arrested once for arguing over a tube of toothpaste. It was a 3.4 oz. tube that was only half full. The bitchy little TSA snippy made me toss it. So I did, on the table. She claimed I threw it at her and called her supervisor over. It reeeeally hurt to have to grovel in order to get on my flight.
Now I’m rethinking my plan to go on vacation in two weeks carrying a load of Euros in order to avoid credit card ‘foreign transaction’ BS charges. As the Euro goes ever higher against the dollar, that extra 3 % really bites.
Congratulations that you stood up to TSA. They have some very under educated folks who sometimes adopt an attitude as if the traveler is the enemy, and they are part of blackwater because of the uniform. A few weeks ago, I stood around after the boarding announcement and six TSA doing nothing. They were lined up at that gate looking important. Then I was the only one singled out for a pat down, and I just knew it would happen - just for looking at them in a bored manner? I said, you are just standing there the whole morning, and why me. “It’s random”, the woman said. Random my behind, it’s about putting you in your place.
PS - traveler cheques, in Europe they are still accepted method of pay, one percent fee, plus no risk when stolen. The only place that I remember trouble getting them accepted somewhere is the US of A.
Sagesse, in Italy several years ago, my sister could not find anyone–bank, hotel, currency exchange–who would cash her traveler’s check. I haven’t used them in years.
I will probably do my usual ‘get as much cash as the ATM will let me’ every day and charge the rest.
And a warning to anyone thinking of standing up to the TSA: Don’t do it. It’s like standing up to a cop, or worse. You cannot possibly win.
A lot of small towns in Germany are basically cash only, no credit cards even.
A lot of the growth in Business/General Aviation in the past 9 years has been thanks to the TSA.
Many high-net-worth individuals (and they are still out there) have made the decision that life was too short to have to deal with airlines and the TSA.
And admit it…..if you were a “celebrity/public figure”, would you want to deal with all the idiots (and most of us on this blog pretty much agree that there are a lot of idiots out there, no?) in the “general public” by flying commercial, if you could avoid it? Especially in this era of the camera-phone?
A bizjet sales guy that I know always carries a box of business cards with him, so he can hand them out to P.O’d people at airline terminals/TSA security lines.
Elanor, I am just outspoken sometimes.
A TSA took my travel bag when I was not looking, without saying anything, and next thing I see is my bag ten yards away on a table, being unpacked (!!!) by that guy. I was fuming. And finally I walked up to his boss and it was acknowledged that this was not ok !! First, the owner of the bag has to be informed that it will be searched. Second, the owner of the bag must be present !!
More people should question them in such a case.
But: once I was ordered around in SF as if I was cattle, into that machine that makes “pouf”, and the boss said the employees had started their shift at 4 am and it was just before 12 noon. I said, “understood - thanks.”
Were these traveler cheques in Euro?
This action had the support of the higher-ups in Missouri, I believe starting with the governor, and is why I will never spend one cent in that state. I had thought about visiting Branson at some point but will gladly give that up. The ACLU doesn’t seem to have pursued this one with the same vigor they often use when pure libertarianism isn’t what’s on the plate.
A quick tale of woe for the new landlord set:
A personal anecdote. My Sister and B-I-L bought a new house a couple of years ago as a builder closeout. They saved $100,000 over the original price, buying in at about 200,000. Nice place in gated community in Spring Hill, Florida.
The “deal” was probably okay, but of course, they already had a house they decided to rent out. That house is also in Spring HIll.
I just found out the tenant has recently vacated, and let the house in terrible condition. They need to have it repaired and completely repainted inside, so there goes the “rental income”. I don’t know how much the work will cost, but it’ just one of those things that incidental landlords don’t understand or anticipate.
Having been a Broker and Landlord previously, I know why high security deposits are absolutely necessary.
I expect this story to be re-told countless times over the next 10 years, as people try to unload their flip houses and “investments”.
vacated, and let the house in terrible condition ??
In a SFR, this is the #2 most underestimated risk in being a landlord…The #1 is vacancy factor…
Having been a Broker and Landlord previously, I know why high security deposits are absolutely necessary.
In addition to a drop-in visit to prospective tenant’s residence, prior to lease signing. The new rental applications require a lot of information, but seeing a tenant’s living conditions is a better predictor of how they’ll keep up the place.
My former landlady was, shall we say, a bit too trusting about who she rented her houses to. She was quite religious, and she got burned by more than a few people who recited the right Bible verses. Or something like that.
Good thing she was so handy, because she practically had to rebuild the interiors of two of those houses. One was in Scottsdale, which meant that she was too far away to keep an eye on things.
The other was in Tucson, and, boy, was that place a headache to manage. For some reason, that place was a bad tenant magnet. To the point where the neighbors complained nonstop.
The only thing worse than being a landlord.. is being a landlord in Florida.
Where your thinking has gone awry in the first paragraph….
They saved $100,000 over the original price, buying in at about 200,000. Nice place in gated community in Spring Hill, Florida.
They spent 200,000. They saved nothing. Spending is not saving.
James,
“They spent 200,000. They saved nothing. Spending is not saving.”
I LOVE this statement - there are at least a dozen (clueless and soon to be BK) folks I know that will come to understand that statement.
Many landlords want top dollars for unbelievably shabby shacks.
As if Spring Hill, Florida didn’t have enough sinkholes already.
A “soft landing” like the one in Sioux City.
“During the landing, the plane cartwheeled, broke into four pieces and caught fire” But the headline reads.
May existing home sales rose by 2.4 percentJune 23, 2009 10:38 AM E
All Associated Press newsWASHINGTON (AP) - Sales of previously occupied homes rose modestly from April to May, the third monthly increase this year, but signs of a housing recovery are fragile at best.
The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday that home sales rose 2.4 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million, from a downwardly revised pace of 4.66 million in April.
About one out of every three homes sold was a foreclosure or distressed sale. That helped drag down the median price to $173,000 — 16.8 percent below a year ago. Falling prices coupled with new rules for property appraisers have caused many transactions to fall apart or be delayed.
Any predictions on when they stop the month-to-month numbers again? July?
LOL - I was just thinking about this earlier. It’ll be interesting to see what’s said about the “green shoots” then, given that most of them were based on the MoM sales numbers, not YoY.
Of course they’re up from April to May. I believe it’s the get-in-before-school-starts market. That market has 7 days left. Then we’ll see what’s what.
The latest salvo from the credit card companies appears to be raising the minimum payment requirement. I just got notice on one of my Chase cards increasing the minimum payment from 2% to 5% percent of the closing balance. That’s a new minimum payment of 2.5x the previous minimum payment. I expect the effect will be to push a lot of people into bankruptcy.
They’ve already lowered limits and raised rates. Now it’s raising minimum payments. However this isn’t a small increase in the minimum payment. A minimum payment of $200 per month now becomes $500 per month under the new terms, for example. I expect the effect will be similar to loan resets on home loans in that it will start a cascade of defaults.
Lowering limits and gradually increasing minimum payments should have been sufficient to get consumers to pay down debt if that was the goal. However, lowering limits, sharply increasing rates, and sharply increasing minimum payments in combination virtually guarantees a large increase in defaults.
Is the real intent just to generate enough income in the short term to justify massive year end bonuses?
Is the real intent just to generate enough income in the short term to justify massive year end bonuses? I think the real intent of any credit card company is to make the highest possible profit, whatever it takes.
Chase has been sending out cc stmts to us closer to the closing date, but I still am pro-active. I call and get a current blalance, and send them full pymt on a twice a month basis. 820+ fico
I had my Chase card involuntarily cancelled recently due to “inactivity”. Meh.
Ditto…
“send them full payment on a twice-a-month basis”
awaitingwipeout,
Instead of this ridiculous card that requires you to pay too much attention, you need a credit card that’s actually a debit card, i.e., a credit card that pays its own bill automatically out of whatever brokerage or savings account it’s attached to. Apparently you don’t need CREDIT, actually.
Greg - if this increase from 2% to 5% becomes common among the major credit card companies, I’d think it should have a huge impact on consumption. While I suppose car sales can be propped up a bit by separate financing, so many people live on credit card debt, now that home equity won’t do the job, that there has to be a flow-through effect on house prices. In the end, cash flow trumps almost everything.
I wonder if this is (also) a way for the CC companies to put pressure on the PTB to undo some of the credit card legislation that trims their outrageous profits.
Wow… 5% of outstanding balance. At an interest rate of 12%… That will require you to pay it off in 2 years! Why… that’s an almost reasonable term for short term loans. Sorry, but I always thought the 2% payment was far too low of a minimum.
What will they think of next? Limiting credit to anyone with a high DTI? Gasp! The horror!
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Maybe they’ll stop sending credit cards to animals, dead people, and grad students.
I just got notice on one of my Chase cards increasing the minimum payment from 2% to 5% percent of the closing balance.
I believe that is a change in lending requirements established by the Congress. Reviewing the minimum payments, at 2%, you never pay off the balance. There was discussion of raising the minimums to 5%. I thought they agreed to this as part of the bankruptcy legislation, but were to phase in the payment schedules.
But, maybe, i was dreaming or my memory fails me.
diogenes, I have the same recollection. The higher minimum was mandated, but I don’t think the required start date has arrived yet. Chase is just starting early.
I’m glad to see it. At 2% minimum, the balance keeps getting higher even if you don’t charge any new purchases.
Inflation Alert: JetBlue emailed me yesterday. $29 fares to Burmuda, Mexico, and Carribean.
I just looked at Southwest flights from Philly to Chicago for late October. “Wanna get away” (i.e. the discounted fares) are $242 round trip before tax. That’s high! Fortunately I have enough frequent flier miles to go United (and they have decent FF flights available).
Bermuda, just 90 mins away from NE cities…
Maybe I’ll make a return visit.
You eastcoasters get all the good stuff. My “deal of the day” was Chicago - LaCrosse, WI for $75 each way.
ORD - LSE……..BFD.
BFD? What airport is that?
What about Hawaii? I did a quick check and some round trips to Maui were under $200. And that was from Portland (not a ton of direct flights).
sleepless,
Yeah, check all you want, getting out of Portland is NEVER cheap! Why should ‘we’ get any great deals? They know we want out of the rain, and will pay just about anything to do it?
Few connecting flights, strange departure times, high airport fees. I’d be better off trying to get on a militay “MAC” flight out of here.
Gah, nevermind. Just checked again.
I guess I’ll have to wait for the next capitulation. Instead, Big Sur, here I come!
sleepless,
There has GOT to be some kind of cryptic airline matrix/vortex that shields the Rose City from ever getting decent fares?
Any time my wife flies back to the Philippines, people from OH get better rates! I swear, there are times where we’ve done a search and it’s almost cheaper to DRIVE to Seattle or the BA and THEN get on a damn plane!
Portland sucks in many, many ways, but that’s always been one that drives me up a wall. “How BAD… do you want to get out of here for awhile..? Hmm..?”
My “deal of the day” was Chicago - LaCrosse, WI for $75 each way.
That’s a deal?
Half the fun of traveling through Wisconsin is stopping for beer, frozen custard, and fried cheese curds (not necessarily at the same time).
No, DEFINITELY at the same time. If only Foster’s would mix them all up into one giant delicious treat!
June 23 (Bloomberg) — U.S. home prices fell 6.8 percent in April from a year earlier as rising unemployment and record foreclosures kept buyers out of the market.
Measured monthly, the average price fell 0.1 percent from March, the Federal Housing Finance Agency in Washington said today. The number was projected to drop 0.4 percent in April, according to the median forecast of 15 economists in a Bloomberg survey.
The housing slump has reduced the median price of an existing home 26 percent from the July 2006 peak, pushing affordability to near record levels. Prospective buyers are now being constrained by rising mortgage rates, the highest unemployment since 1983 and concern the housing rebound will be anemic.
While U.S. builders increased housing starts by 17 percent in May to an annual rate of 532,000, a May 26 report from S&P/Case-Shiller showed home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell 18.7 percent in March from the same month last year.
All signs point to further declines. Yale University Professor Robert Shiller, co-founder of the S&P/Case-Shiller index, said earlier this month that prices will continue to fall, contributing to a prolonged recession.
Deutsche Bank AG analysts last week said that U.S. home prices may fall another 14 percent before reaching a bottom as an increase in the jobless rate offsets lower prices. The worse declined may hit the New York and Orange County, California, metropolitan areas, analysts led by Karen Weaver said.
I hope its not too much to ask for links to all that joy.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
i live in VA…i got a $ 40 camera speeding ticket in MD.
i will never buy or sale anything in the state of MD again.
i also promptly cancelled by $ 3,000 order that i made the day i got the ticket. i will buy it in VA.
way to go maralind!!
MD is notorious for speed enforcement.
Driving down I-95, as soon as you cross from DE into MD, the highway is crawling with staties.
I lived in MD for close to a decade, got plenty tickets all around but never in MD (at least not for speeding).
Just don’t be the first car in the innermost lane on I-95 as you crest up a rolling hill.
Penny wise, pound foolish.
Which has the higher tax? Don’t buy in that state. Isn’t this obvious?
What does a speeding ticket have to do with anything?
VA is lower sales tax.
the MD item and VA item are functionally the same but asthetically different…minimal though.
the MD camera ticket pushed the pendulum back toward the VA choice.
and to me…some things are just unacceptable…no matter the cost.
I’m in the camp of if I can buy it on craigslist I do it. I do this just to not pay taxes.
well, don’t speed
At least you can’t get points for that - they can’t tell who is driving, so ticket goes to car owner, not driver.
Some mud can help with that as well.
speaking as a vendor, Maryland is the worst place to do business. Nothing but politics - preferences, quotas, and red tape. Bleah.
GEEZ that why you hang out behind a semi for miles and miles and miles
Rule #1 DON’T be the leader when driving!
Rule #2..see rule #1
For Rule #1, CA Highway Patrolman told me, “Don’t be an individual”
GEEZ that why you hang out behind a semi for miles and miles and miles
Yeah if you like cracks in your windshield and pits all over your paint job.
Best thing is to hang out behind a red car.
Were you speeding?
Huh?
Wasn’t Virginia the state that jacked up the fines to the next milky way a year or so ago?
From USA today, 2007, about Virginia traffic fines:
“In an effort to raise money for road projects, the state will start hitting residents who commit serious traffic offenses with huge civil penalties.
The new civil charges will range from $750 to $3,000 and be added to existing fines and court costs. The civil penalty for going 20 mph over the speed limit will be $1,050, plus $61 in court costs and a fine that is typically about $200.”
$40 is the cheapest speeding ticket I’ve ever heard of. Our parking tickets cost $40; speeding costs hundreds.
“$40 is the cheapest speeding ticket I’ve ever heard of.”
Me too! Maybe he left out a zero.
Yeah, $40 is the cost per mile over the speed limit.
So Ford & Nissan have jumped into the ‘cheese’ line…
AP source: Ford, Nissan, Tesla to get govt loans
By KEN THOMAS – 5 hours ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Energy Department is lending money to the Ford Motor Co. and two other automakers from a $25 billion fund to develop fuel-efficient vehicles, congressional officials say.
Energy Secretary Steven Chu was scheduled to announce the loan funding for Ford, Nissan Motor Co. and Tesla Motors Inc. on Tuesday in Dearborn, Mich., the officials said. They requested anonymity because an official announcement was pending.
Dozens of auto companies, suppliers and battery makers have sought a total of $38 billion from the loan program. Ford has asked to receive $5 billion in loans by 2011, but it was unclear how much money the automaker would receive. Nissan has applied for an undisclosed amount of assistance, while Tesla has sought $450 million.
The Energy Department declined to comment on the plans. Chu has not yet announced the first recipients of the loans, which have been closely watched by members of Congress from states with auto plants and suppliers.
Congress approved the loan program last year to help car companies and suppliers retool their facilities to develop green vehicles and components such as advanced batteries.
The loans were designed to help the auto manufacturers meet new fuel-efficiency standards of at least 35 miles per gallon by 2020, a 40 percent increase over current standards.
General Motors Corp. and Chrysler Group LLC have received billions of dollars in federal loans to restructure their companies through government-led bankruptcies, but Ford avoided seeking emergency aid by mortgaging all of its assets in 2006 to borrow about $25 billion.
General Motors has requested $10.3 billion in loans from the program, while Chrysler has asked for $6 billion in loans. Energy officials have said the loans could only go to “financially viable” companies, preventing GM and Chrysler to qualify for the first round of the loans.
Heaven forbid any profits (from the record run of “prosperity” we just had) get used for R & D.
California parents beware: Those little tax deductions running around the house are now worth less (in a strictly financial sense, of course).
Net Worth
To help balance its budget, California has reduced the state tax credit for dependents.
The change will increase a family’s California taxes for 2009 by about $210 per dependent compared with 2008.
A family with one dependent that normally gets a state-tax refund will get back $210 less when they file their 2009 return next year. A family that normally owes money will have to pay $210 more. Multiply that by two or more dependents, and it really adds up.
This may come as a shock to parents who have been too busy shuttling between soccer games and viola lessons to keep up with the state’s budget fiasco. The Franchise Tax Board is trying to get the word out, so families can prepare.
At issue is the exemption you get for each person listed on your tax return. The credit reduces your tax bill dollar for dollar. (The exemption credit phases out for couples with more than roughly $326,400 in adjusted gross income and singles with more than $163,200. This column applies to those under the limit.)
Deduction should be eliminated completely.
“Deduction should be eliminated completely.”
Agree 100%. Why am I responsible for subsidizing someone else’s share of the tax burden because they chose to have more children? Eliminate all of the deductions.
Amen. As if we don’t have enough perverse incentives in this ass-backwards state.
Do you mean from the tax code or from the gene pool?
+1 sfbb…:)
Jon & Kate Screw 8
The co-stars of “Jon & Kate Plus 8,” who are parents of 5-year-old sextuplets and 8-year-old twins, spoke of their decision to separate during Monday’s episode of the TLC reality series. Near the end of the hour-long episode, a title card summed things up in stark terms: It said that on Monday, “legal proceedings were initiated in Pennsylvania to dissolve the 10-year marriage of Jon and Kate Gosselin.”
8 kids that will now have their lives torn apart by a couple of whining, pathetic people.
I went to the supermarket recently and saw their headline on a few of the magazines at checkout. I had no idea who they were.
And I was mighty proud of that fact.
I went to the supermarket recently and saw their headline on a few of the magazines at checkout. I had no idea who they were.
And I was mighty proud of that fact.
Odd. That was precisely MY reaction as well!
I thought ‘Who are these petulant and uninteresting-looking individuals?’ And then I was distracted by a picture of strawberry cheesecake on a food magazine, and looked away, thereby ending my mercifully brief experience of the ‘Jon and Kate’ saga.
LMAO! I saw the headline and immediately thought:
“I have no desire to figure out who they are or why my life might be affected by them, in spite of their presence on one of the most popular magazines.”
Stories from friends about them since have affirmed my (lack of) desire to know them better.
BTW, I had the audacity to question your spelling of the word petulant. I was quickly reprimanded by a red, squiggly line underneath when I tried my version. My apologies.
BTW, I had the audacity to question your spelling of the word petulant.
Well! I’ll just be…you questioned my skillz!
*immediately assumes expression of outraged petulance *
These two quintessential losers are the end result of marketing and borrow and spend (supply side) madness….. brought to you by Wall Street and the MSM.
What was the show about? I watch so little tv…except Cops and AMW gotta have my laughs.. mon i gotz no eye dee!
As opposed to what was happening before?
Went to lunch at Chilli’s yesterday. We got there exactly at noon. It was practically empty. I never go to this specific Chilli’s at that time because there is ALWAYS a wait. Anyways, we just strolled in and sat right away. I figure we were still early but when we left within the hour, the place was less than 25% occupied. kind of weird.
Lately, all our favorite places are struggling. I hope they can stick it out for another two years at least.
Seeing the same here. Places that used to have lines out the door on Friday and Saturday nights never have a wait anymore.
Go twice a month to lunch at a very nice sports bar with + food…Ever since the first of the year the place has been dead…It seats maybe 60 or so…Several times we have been the only people there at lunch…More employees than customers..Back up two years and we could barely get in…We would go at 11:00 just to make sure we could get a table…
Went to lunch at Houston’s on Rosecrans (Manhattan beach?). Empty tables until noon. They open at 11am for lunch. In the past, there was a 20 minute wait after 11:20am. No more…
Got Popcorn?
Neil
I like McCormick and Schmitts better.
Here in Norfolk VA at the mall they tend to still be slammed with business.
Its good to work for the Federal Gov’t.
I went to one of those networking type meetings. It was a lunch meeting at the Arizona Inn, which is one of THE power lunch spots in Tucson.
Time wasn’t too long ago when this particular meeting would attract 50 to 60 people. Today’s attendance was (drumroll) 18, which included the two guest speakers.
Oh, I should add that the topic was media relations relating to the University of Arizona’s recent management of the Phoenix Mars Mission. The UA public relations duo went on at great length about how they fussed over the MSM.
And there I saw my opening. I do quite a bit of photo-blogging about Tucson events. One of my 2008 posts was about the big Phoenix Mars Lander touchdown party. Along with thousands of other people, I was over on the UA campus for the landing party.
Had something around my neck that said Nikon, and I was snappin’ away. While I was being Photographer Action Figure, I saw two UA PR types, both of whom I’d known for 20 years. Both of them looked right at me and didn’t say hello.
So, I asked the head of the UA’s PR shop, in so many words, WTF was going on with that? I mean, if you see someone you’ve known for 20 years, isn’t it considered polite to at least say hello?
I mean, I may not be a science reporter from CNN or ABC News, but, good grief, what’s with the snobbery? I mean, the UA has enough of a stuck-up reputation in Tucson and at the Arizona legislature. If anything, they should be bending over backwards to dispel that rep.
A third UA PR type, whom I’ve also known for a couple of decades, did take the time to say hello, and I offered to e-mail her a link to the blog post I wrote after the Mars Lander party.
She was more than eager to see what I had posted, and she wrote a nice message in return. And, that, people, is what good PR should be. Even if you’re dealing with a (gasp!) blogger.
Just returned from a long trip and a move to a new rental. Endured a lot of HBB withdrawal pain.
Has the 2/09 CEPR report, “The Wealth of the Baby Boom Cohorts…”, been a topic recently? While the date suggests I could have read it a lot sooner, I just saw the report and it is pretty shocking.
The link:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/12814962/The-Wealth-of-the-Baby-Boom-Cohorts-After-the-Collapse-of-the-Housing-Bubble
Well then welcome back Chip!
Since I started reading this blog, I’m ready to move into my third (3rd) rental. How many rentals have you lived in while bubble-sitting?
Here’s the chilling sentence from that report.
“In short, as a result of the collapse of the housing bubble, the vast majority of baby boomers will be approaching retirement with little wealth outside of Social Security.”
Consider those implications!
Soylent Green time!
Funny, sfbubble, but eeeeeww!
Wow - that is a shocking report.
Get this too:
3) As a result of the plunge in house prices, many baby boomers now have little or no equity in their home. According to our calculations, nearly 30 percent of households headed by someone between the ages of 45 to 54 will need to bring money to their closing (to cover their mortgage and transactions costs) if they were to sell their home. More than 15 percent of the early baby boomers, people between the ages of 55 and 64, will need to bring money to a closing when they sell their home.
There was a report last month that said that about 22% of folks were underwater - looks like the 45-54 demographic may be about the worse off of the lot.
Keeping mind of course that prices are still falling…
I think that the boomers is about where America lost it’s vision for housing to be a paid off house complete with mortgage burning party and became a trophy house nation.
Looks like there won’t be any equity for reverse mortgages either for the BB’s. How is this group going to pay for health care ? Just like I thought ,a huge amount of baby boomers will need Social Security to even survive . The article mentioned that this group didn’t save during peak saving years because they thought that they were building wealth with real estate and stocks ,which have gone down .What ever happened to the rich baby boomers that were suppose to buy up all the spec.houses
during the boom ?
LOL - all the renters on the board will get a kick out of the comparisons of Figure 5 (loss of wealth of homeowners) and Figure 6 (loss of wealth of non-homeowners).
from Bill in Carolina:
“Consider those implications!”
That is one political demographic that is going to be demanding substantial increases in in social security payments at a time that the country can least afford it. They are a huge new crop of freshly minted liberals.
Testify, Jon. My Hoover-era, Roosevelt-bashing, Nixon-loving in-laws became Clinton Democrats when they reached 65.
X-Philly - this is my second rental, after four years in the first. I moved because this one is an even better deal, by a good margin. Prior to that, I owned for 33 years straight. If the rent ratio ever gets back to normal, I’ll probably buy, but right now renting is such a good deal for me (50 cents a foot) that it would be foolish to purchase anything other than a bona fide bargain. In the areas I’ve scouted, there was one such, a super cave-in to a lowball offer, but the rest of the sellers are holding out - while nothing sells - for prices that are never coming back.
The first half of the baby boom is much better off than the second half. No surprise there — the second half of the baby boom has always been worse off.
I’d bet you could go through each subsequent generation and find out things are worse and worse.
What tends to be the dividing line between the late Boomers and Gen X? Born in the early 60’s?
1964 is the “official” cutoff.
That’s the date I’ve always heard for the baby boom — 1947 to 1964.
However census data tends to present information for five-year cohorts, so you end up with data for those born 1945 to 1965 in most cases.
I tend to split the baby boom based on the conditions when they hit age 18. Up until 1973, roughly the first half, you had Vietnam but a strong economy and lots of public services for the young — college grants instead of loans. Plus better music.
Afterward you had stagflation, the energy crisis, falling wages, two-tier contracts, student loans, and bad music.
Under Social Security, pre-boomers retired at 65, boomers born in 1954 and earlier retire at 66, and those after retire increasingly latter until those born 1960 or later retire at 67 — except we won’t be allowed to.
Plus better music ??
WT Economist,
Well said. “I” was never considered part of the boom. Not at all. Certainly not by teachers and the older kids that were potentially facing the draft. I was a sophmore in HS when Saigon fell.
Actually, it wasn’t until years later when I got out of the service that I was told I was officially a member? Huh, how odd?
Good point WT…
WT Economist …..No question that the baby boomers were big spenders and they didn’t take advantage of the good job market in terms of savings ,but the system let them down also . You can’t say that leading into your 5 years before retirement that having your wealth go down by 40 or 50% was something that was expected by
this group . Rather than it being a age group that caused the problem
it was more a function of the evils of unregulated capitalism ,globalism, unchecked government spending and Unions , and
the politicians being in bed with the bankers and Wall Street ,as usual.
Anyone else see the “We told you so!!!” articles in the WSJ this morning? They slammed on Bernanke for pushing to keep rates low in 2003, even though the WSJ showed that we were recovering already from the recession, and that his policies might cause a bubble?
Will post a link…
Article
The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meets today, amid a debate over how and when to remove the flood of liquidity it has poured into the economy in the last 18 months. Fed officials say not to worry, they’re as vigilant about inflation as ever — which is itself a reason to worry. We’ve all seen this movie before, when the Fed’s failure to act in time gave birth to the housing bubble and credit mania that eventually led to panic and today’s recession. Will it make the same mistake now?
We remember that 2003 debate because it turns out we played a part in it. The Fed recently released the transcripts of its 2003 FOMC meetings, and what a surprise to find a Journal editorial the subject of an insider rebuttal from none other than Ben Bernanke, then a Fed Governor and now Chairman. We had run an editorial on monetary policy on the same day as the Dec. 9, 2003 FOMC meeting, and Mr. Bernanke clearly didn’t take well to our warning about “Speed Demons at the Fed.”
We reprint nearby both Mr. Bernanke’s comments and our editorial from that day. Readers can judge who got the better of the argument, but far more important is what Mr. Bernanke’s reasoning tells us about the Fed today. Our guess is that it won’t reassure holders of dollar assets.
…
Slim’s prediction: Later this year, Dr. Bernanke will announce that he’ll be returning to the Princeton economics faculty.
Agggh. I am burning up here! I haven’t purchased Gold Bond since my football days.
At what point will my AC freeze up? Is there someting I can monitor? It’s running non-stop!
Hose down the back radiator part, also move all furniture away from the intake better air flow if its inside,
any way to shade the ac like put a beach umbrella on top? it would be a cinch if the central unit was outside on the ground.
Good ideas. Actually perhaps a constant spray like a garden sprinkler/mister might be good. (Obviously very wasteful but sounds like it’s temporary)
Turn the thermostat up to 85. Take a cold shower every 2 hours & walk around in your underwear only. No socks. Carry a fan with you room to room & plug it in as needed.
I grew up in Florida in a house with no air conditioning. The above will work. It might take a while to get acclimated however.
I am burning up here! It takes everyone a while to get acclimatized. For me, 3-4 days of hot humid weather & suddenly I feel more comfortable even though conditions stay the same.
— Drink plenty of lukewarm water to help your body adapt to the heat. I say ‘lukewarm’ because it’s far easier to drink the larger amounts of water necessary to re-hydrate yourself. In addition, drinking ice gives you only short term relief from the hot sensation. After the ice melts inside you, you tend to feel even hotter.
— I don’t want to get too detailed, but the main way the body adapts to hot humid weather is to shift more of its fluid into circulation from other parts of the body. That takes a few days. If you are borderline dehydrated (as most people seem to be most of the time) this necessary internal fluid shift can’t happen as easily as it should.
“the main way the body adapts to hot humid weather is to shift more of its fluid into circulation from other parts of the body.”
Ahh, so that explains the burning sensation.
*eagerly awaits Oly’s interpretation - bonus points for the inclusion of 1. mustard reference 2. geo duck entendre 3. an answer that begins with, “When the tide goes out”
Can she pull it off!?
Shoots, I don’t know. That’s a mighty tall order; the mustard part.
But I like a challenge. Tell you what, I’ll come back in two beers time and see what I can do.
Okay, first of all I’m going to disagree with this part:
“the main way the body adapts to hot humid weather is to shift more of its fluid into circulation from other parts of the body.”
In reality, the main way the body adapts successfully to hot humid weather is to absorb lots of chilly fermented fluids from cans and/or bottles. That way things go good, and fewer people are beaten with cucumbers and other vegetal matter over at the church.
Secondly, if you don’t like the burning sensation, then quit putting mustard on your geoduck. Boy, they don’t like that, and will quickly retract into their cute little ineffectual shells. Also, geoducks appear to dislike shovels, so keep those away. (I learned that just this very day.) But geoducks like other things pertaining unto the ocean. When the tide goes out they poke up and look around eagerly in a curious fashion. Oh, wait…until they see a seagull. Seagulls are bad news, too. (I learned that just very day, as well.)
Well, I guess that’s all you all need to know about your geoduck maintenance. No mustard, seagulls, or shovels.
Dang. I thought that post would pass the filter.
I guess I better go fondle and observe my recently digged up ge*oducks instead. They’re writhing around in a bowl on the counter, next to some giant flarpy moon-snails in a different bowl.
I took a photo of them when I dug ‘em up, along with my grubby little sand-covered foot, for scale. I think I should post it! Except that everyone would want to eat my foot, with ginger and wasabi.
Truly, though, g*eoducks are tasty. I’m beginning to see what those Asians are on about, when it comes to consuming giant funny-looking clams. Who knew?
OMFG. I just watched a bunch of geo duck clips youtube. Do you really do that?
Holy frick. I’d rather be trapped under a fan boat in the ‘Glades.
Look how you deftly sidestep the fact that I encouched all your requirements within my post!
I’m going to forthwith make a note that you are sneaky.
*makes a note forthwith that Muggy is sneaky *
Thass right, baybee!
Got your ceiling fans turned on? You can set the thermostat higher and still be comfortable if you have a “breeze.”
Assuming your A/C has the proper refrigerant charge, the airflow over the evaporator coil is normal, and everything else is functioning properly, you don’t have to worry about it “freezing up.”
But you might be shocked when you see your next electric bill.
& walk around in your underwear only.
But he can’t. As Muggy informed me yesterday when the subject of nekkid streaking Evergreeners darting across tidal mud-flats came up—as it so often does—he informed me that in Florida unclothed people get tased and persecuted. That’s why I immediately checked Florida right off my list of places to visit, and I even used a permanent marker to do it.
Behold my name, Muggy. (zip 98502)
It’s the water!
It IS the water.
Some of which is gonna be minus 4.5 feet in a very short while! The lowest tide I have EVER seen!
I’m going home early so I can gather a bag of red seaweed up and pickle it. The Japanese neighbor showed me how. She calls it ‘ogo-nori’, I don’t know the scientific name, but I know I like to eat it.
And maybe a giant funny looking clam…
Where’s ATE? ATE!!! ATTTEEEEEE!
I’m here Oly! Yes, a geo-duck… Some day maybe you will cook one for me and mail it FED EX… So, this also is for you thinking about by palate…
Be still my beeting heart
It would be better to be cool
It’s not time to be open just yet
A lesson once learned is so hard to forget
Be still my beeting heart
Or I’ll be taken for a fool
It’s not healthy to run at this pace
The blood runs so red to my face
I’ve been to every single book I know
To soothe the thoughts that plague me so
I sink like a stone that’s been thrown in the ocean
My logic has drowned in a sea of emotion
Stop before you start
Be still my beeting heart
Restore my broken dreams
Shattered like a falling glass
I’m not ready to be broken just yet
A lesson once learned is so hard to forget
Be still my beeting heart
You must learn to stand your ground
It’s not healthy to run at this pace
The blood runs so red to my face
I’ve been to every single book I know
To soothe the thoughts that plague me so
Stop before you start
Be still my beeting heart
Never to be wrong
Never to make promises that break
It’s like singing in the wind
Or writing on the surface of a lake
And I wriggle like a fish (geo-duck) caught on dry land
And I struggle to avoid any help at hand
I sink like a stone that’s been thrown in the ocean
My logic has drowned in a sea of emotion
Stop before you start
Be still my beeting heart
Oly, that is twice I have asked you to mail me a geo-duck. The only difference this time is, (as you suggested), sans dry ice. So, Oly Gal, the REAL QUESTION is…
“Will you mail me a geo-duck?”
” I Wanna Geo-Duck”
“Regret, loss, and introspection, led to this one’s resurrection…
Now, having gone through all the muck, All I want is a geo-duck”.
Producved by Brian Eno and Daniel Lenous,
Recorded at Record Plant
Digital recording
Analoging Mixing
Digital Production.
All rights reserved, EMI.
Analoging=Analog
Prof Bear was right. Instead of “Singing in the Rain”, This is…”Talkin’ to myself”…
Oly Response:
“I knew Gene Kelly…and ATE-UP, you are not Gene Kelly”.
No, you behold my name! (zip 33770)
Just got back from Montana, lots of rain and really green. Looked at a rental in Bozeman, a nice house in a solid middle-class neighborhood (not college students). Very nice couple, professional, were staying there trying to rent it for their mom, who had bought it to be near them. The couple had just lost their jobs and were moving back East, where they were from. Their own house has been on the market for a year with no buyers, they have it as low as they can go, she said, can’t rent it as it’s way up in the mtns and off the grid. The only reason they haven’t lost it is the mom is making the payments for them.
The plan is for the mom to go back with them and rent her house in Boze out, then sell it when the market comes back in a couple of years. In the meantime, their house is on the market, just sitting. I didn’t have the heart to tell them the market won’t be back. So now they have two houses in Bozeman and are all living in New York. What a disaster.
Boze is a beautiful town, the motels were full, but what economy it has beyond the college is a big question.
Second verse same as the first, no place is different.
Lostie,
I got back from London last Friday. Took mom across the pond.
Details, woman!
Yes, details! Sounds awesome. Did you visit the Queen and have crumpets?
Did you bring her back?
Bozeman is about my favorite Montana town. I went to college there, and when I heard the prices they were asking for houses these days, I nearly choked.
Then I heard what houses in Butte were selling for (where I grew up) and I DID choke. I choked to death, then revived so I could choke to death again. Fortunately I got distracted by a shiny bauble before I could finish the job the second time.
Helena is also very nice. I’m not a fan of Billings or Missoula. There are some nice small towns around as well, but jobs are few and far between in those locales.
Wop-Chop!!!! See you @ the Freeway!
My wife’s family grew up in Butte, some are still there. What’s the name of the place that serves you all the food? It starts off with spagetti, french fries, anchovies, bread, and about 10 other “sides” befor you get your meal which was 1/2 a chicken. I’ve never been so stuffed in my life, ever, and never more hungry come breakfast… Maria’s? hmm….
I had an awesome breakfast a few years ago in one of the casinos there, cheap, too, but the sight of the desultory broke gamblers was a bit harsh.
You said ‘desultory’!
I’m so very pleased.
So pleased that I’m making a note of this event in my ‘word-spotting’ notebook.
(It’s like being a bird-watcher, except more rare and exclusive.)
*shuffles paper around on desk, looking for notebook *
Oly, that’s a word I hear often out here in the Dog-forsaken desert - I mean God-forsaken…
My brother went with me to Boze and we camped out and he heard a bigfoot and we ended up getting motel rooms.
I told him he had to return the Bigfoot Field Researcher hat I gave him. I wasn’t a bit scared - of course, I was sleeping in the car and he was in a tent. He wants to go out on the 4th of July and try again so he can keep the hat, but maybe in the desert where the only critters are lizards, rattlers, and mtn lions.
I think it was really a grizz, so what’s the worry?
Desultory….
I been Norman Mailered, Maxwell Taylored,
I been Lou Adlered, been Barry Sadlered…..
Folk Rock!
I lost my harmonica, Albert…..
Butte is a strange bird, IMO.
But for some reason I love it.
Lydia’s
And thanks for the observations on Bozeman, losty.
Say, are you gonna become ‘lost in montana’ now?
I dunno. I rented the house starting in August, but I’m already dreading winter. That’s when it’s nice here in the canyons. Yup, winters in Boze (very cold) and summers in Moab (95 today)…
Losty, I tried to find your beautiful video on the other site you gave me. Put in the number? Couldn’t pull it up. Yes, when I went back to it, You Tube had pulled it. Any advice, because I really thought it was beautiful, and enjoyed it very much!
Thanks,
ATE
Try this:
http://www.vimeo.com/4746519
Youtube pulled it because of the music, so I reposted it on Vimeo. Glad you enjoyed it, ATE, thanks!
Losty, Just tried it, it WORKS, and saved!!
Thanks so much, I love it!!
Very nice LIU.
Images of my misspent ute.
Ute or youth? Or maybe uthe? If you spent your whicheveritis among wildflowers, not bad, I sure wouldn’t say misspent…
Truth be told it was mostly Snake River plain wildflowers, but pretty much everything you showed in the video was the background scenery for my various adventures, except you’d need to substitute lava rock for the red rock cliffs.
Youth as pronounced by cousin Vinnie=yute. My play on words was apparently obtuse.
I thought everyone wanted to live in Bozeman??
I visited a few times during my high school years and thought it was the greatest. (I grew up outside of Great Falls)
I quite like Bozeman, but don’t care for those -20 degree winter days anymore. I do see the price of homes there and also the asking price of farmland in the state and laugh. Maybe in 5 years I can pay cash for a farm in that land has a long way to fall.
Like my friends in Montana say, the good lord is not making any more ground so it can only go up,up,up!!!
I prefer the southern most point int he Rockies. Much more mild winters and still great fishing. Too old, to live in that too cold.
El Paso?
Foreclosure Prevention: New Program Shows Big Jump - Time Magaine
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1906167,00.html
I’ve seen statistics that 70% of the foreclosure modifications end up back in default shortly. But keep just enough hope alive, so that the debt slaves pay in to the system a little while longer.
lol
Doesn’t it seem like they’re being made to setup the dining hall before becoming Soylent Green?
Got Popcorn?
Neil
“But keep just enough hope alive, so that the debt slaves pay in to the system a little while longer.”
Amen. Green shoots. 2nd Half 2009 recovery. Banks re-capitalized. Blah, blah. This is PR for the sheeple, nothing more.
Palm Beach County homes sales remain steady in May, prices dip
By JEFF OSTROWSKI
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Palm Beach County house prices dipped slightly in May, while sales volumes held steady, the Florida Association of Realtors said this morning.
The median price of an existing single-family home fell to $232,900, down from $234,400 in April and off 30 percent from a year ago. The number of sales held steady at 737, unchanged from April and up 5 percent from May 2008.
May 07 $387,800
May 08 $330,900
May 09 $232,900
Palm Beach County homes sales remain steady in May, prices dip
By JEFF OSTROWSKI
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Realtors say the median price has been skewed by strong sales for starter homes and weak sales for higher-priced properties.
Sales of Palm Beach County houses priced under $200,000 have soared 474 percent over the past two years, according to The Keyes Co., a real estate brokerage. But sales of homes over $400,000 have plunged 60 percent in the past two years.
“The tremendous activity at the lower end disproportionately drops the median price,” said Jo Ann Mazzeo, manager of Keyes’ Boynton Beach office.
A weak market for high-end homes has forced Realtors to market creatively. On Sunday, Donald Kurtzer and Angela Bean of Century 21 Tenace Realty will host an open house at a $2.8 million home on Pioneer Road in West Palm Beach.
Attractions include a clown, face painting and an assortment of exotic cars owned by the seller.
Just think how bad the YOY drop would have looked w/o super low interest rates and the first time buyer tax credit…
SPECIAL REPORT Road to Rescue
Home sales rise - while prices fall 17%
Sinking home prices and first-time tax credit draw in buyers.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney dot com) — Existing home sales rose in May, as increasingly affordable home prices and a first-time tax credit attracted hesitant buyers.
The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales ticked up 2.4% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million units compared to the downwardly-revised rate of 4.66 million in April.
The sales missed expert forecasts of 4.82 million annual units, according to a consensus estimate of analysts compiled by Briefing.com, and are off 3.6% from the 4.95 million-unit pace 12 months ago.
The median price of homes sold in May was just $173,000, a 16.8% year-over-year drop.
…
How to engineer an uptick in this month’s home sales rate: Revise last month’s downward…
They’ve been doing that for over a year now to make the slump look less bad. I believe they pair it with ‘be overly optimistic about this month’s home sales that fall out of escrow (i.e. assume zero will fall out)’ and swing for the fences.
Harvard tallies up the housing bust damage.
http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/publications/markets/son2009/son2009.pdf
Looks like a 40% drop in home equity in real terms, plus less spending on renovations. Does that mean contractors will start calling me back soon?
From the Harvard report on housing in 2009 (link in prior post).
“From their quarterly peaks during the housing boom to the last quarter of 2008, real home equity was down 41 percent, existing median home prices 27 percent (and at least 40 percent in 26 metropolitan areas), new home sales 70 percent, and existing home sales 33 percent.
Homeowners also pulled back on home improvement projects,
with spending off 13 percent in real terms in 2008 and even larger
declines expected in 2009. The cutbacks in home building and
remodeling shaved a full percentage point off economic growth
in 2007 and nearly another point in 2008. The collapse of home
prices placed another drag on the economy by dramatically reduc-
ing household wealth, which further discouraged consumers from
spending. ”
You say housing boom, I say housing bubble, let’s call the whole thing off.
Sadly, most of the people I know do not grasp that a reduction in value of 41% wipes out, completely, a prior gain of 69.5%. Similarly, they over-react when a report says something like, “…will fall another 24%.” They add 24% to the previous loss percentage instead of multiplying it by the result of that prior drop and then subtracting the result.
“You say housing boom, I say housing bubble, let’s call the whole thing off.”
Ira & George Gershwin would be proud.
Well! Where’s my toy bo*uncy-ball/mu*scle post at the top of the thread?
All I can say is, Ben has got*ten wise and won’t let anything I say thro*ugh the filt*er.
Maybe I should stick on top*ic sometime, like for fi*ve who*le days, and lull him into co*mplace*ncy!
Zat why u noring me Oly?
Good night to all, and while I read and discern and post dumb stuff with Oly and Palmy, I am learning from you all, respect your intelligence, and really am grateful for everyone here very much.
Thanks to everyone for letting me add a little, and a special Thank You to Ben for putting up with me.
OG, as long as your post gave you joy when you clicked “Add comment” that is the important thing!
Here’s something new I learned - what I would call a contributor to the housing bubble the I didn’t know about before seeing this:
During the frontside of the bubble - the SEC actually pushed the banks to lessen their loan loss reserves.
The insanity is just…. insane.
For more than a decade, banks have been restricted by accounting standards and the Securities and Exchange Commission from building capital reserves for loan losses that are likely to occur but difficult to predict.
“Banks felt under pressure to keep reserves thin,” said Eugene Ludwig, the former comptroller of the currency who now heads consulting firm Promontory Financial Group LLC.
…
The SEC has tussled twice with regional bank SunTrust Banks Inc. over reserves.
In 1998, when SunTrust wanted to make an acquisition, its loan-loss reserve came under SEC scrutiny.
At the time, the Atlanta bank held a reserve of $666 million, 1.6% of total loans. The SEC forced SunTrust to reduce its reserve by about $100 million because the agency felt the reserve was too high.
In 2004, the SEC took aim at SunTrust again.
The bank’s assets had doubled, and its loan-loss reserve stood at almost $1 billion, or just above 1% of loans.
The SEC criticized the company’s assumptions in building the reserve, among other things, and SunTrust fired its chief risk officer.
…
Meant to add - I may be mistaken but I would assume that the primary method of lowering reserves as such would be - to make loans that they otherwise wouldn’t make. A hallmark of the bubble, of course.
Prepare to VOMIT
June 24 (Bloomberg) — There may be another culprit scuttling a U.S. housing recovery: low home appraisals.
Flawed appraisals are derailing real estate sales and depressing values across the U.S., the National Association of Realtors said yesterday as it reported that existing home prices declined 17 percent in May from a year earlier.
“It’s pointing to thousands of delayed or canceled transactions,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the Chicago- based Realtors group, said in an interview. “We’ve had a massive inundation from members saying this is a big problem.”
Cry me a river Yun. What a schmuck.
Un FREAKING Believable. Is this “journalist” employed by NAR? Low appraisals are getting in the way of sales. Bring your own money and you can pay what ever you want for a house. But if someone else is lending you the money, they have a right and obligation to assess the value of the underlying collateral. What planet is this guy on!
Real estate broker Vince Saragosa had a $185,000 offer in April for a three-bedroom home in Royal Oaks, Michigan. An appraiser valued the property at $128,000 and the deal fell through.
Too F’n funny
Offer probably came from Vince’s brother who is 3 mo away from bankruptcy and is piling on debt before he goes over the cliff handngin out cash along the way to Vince and others.
WASHINGTON – With signs the economy is improving but still fragile, Federal Reserve policymakers are considering whether some programs intended to drive down rates on mortgages and other consumer debt should be slowed down.
My guess is tthat this kind of story is designed to drive peopel to purchase treasuries, just in time for a massive gov debt offering.