Bits Bucket For July 2, 2009
Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here. Please visit the HBB Forum. And see the American Visionaries series from Schwarzfilm.
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here. Please visit the HBB Forum. And see the American Visionaries series from Schwarzfilm.
Manhattan down 24% from last year:
ROUGH SALE-ING IN CITY
MANHATTAN APTS. SWOON
Last updated: 3:16 am
July 2, 2009
The free fall in Manhattan’s residential real-estate market continued through the most recent three months, with average prices falling by nearly a quarter compared with the white-hot market of a year ago, new market reports show.
The average sales price for an apartment in the borough dropped 24 percent, to $1,263,471, during the second quarter of the year, compared with the same period in 2008, according to a new market report by the real-estate firm Brown Harris Stevens, one of several released yesterday
http://www.nypost.com/seven/07022009/news/regionalnews/manhattan/rough_sale_ing_in_city_177172.htm
Where’s Fasty? I wanna hear his special boisterous cackle at this time.
We’ve lost several posters recently. I’m hoping it’s just summer vacation.
Maybe they’re out snapping up houses?
Yeah, at 1.2 million they’re such a bargain!
After the main stream media picked up on the bubble, the active posters seemed to shift. Maybe they all bought houses.
“I’m hoping it’s just summer vacation.”
V-A-C-A-T-I-O-N in the summer sun
Put away the books, we’re out of school
The weather’s warm but we’ll play it cool
We’re on vacation, havin’ lots of fun
V-A-C-A-T-I-O-N in the summer sun
We’re gonna grab a bite at the pizza stand
Write love letters in the sand
We’re on vacation and the world is ours
V-A-C-A-T-I-O-N under summer stars
Yeah, we’ll hop in a jalopy to a drive-in movie and never look at the show
We’re gonna hug and kiss just like this and I can’t wait to go, go, go
We’re gonna mashed potato to a jukebox tune
Park your car ‘neath an August moon
We’re on vacation till the start of the fall
V-A-C-A-T-I-O-N, we’re gonna have a ball, go!!
sax interlude
V-A-C-A-T-I-O-N, gonna have a ball
Uh-huh, we’ll hop in a jalopy to a drive-in movie and never look at the show
We’re gonna hug and kiss just like this and I can’t wait to go, go, go
We’re gonna mashed potato to a jukebox tune
Park your car ‘neath an August moon
We’re on vacation till the start of the fall
V-A-C-A-T-I-O-N, we’re gonna have a ball, yeah
FADE
V-A-C-A-T-I-O-N, (yeah) gonna have a ball
-Connie Francis
Grüß Gott from summer vacation in Deutschland. I have only hotel computer capability (laptop broke a couple of days ago), but don’t worry — I’ll be back, with a report on why there is no bubble over here, even though they aren’t making any more land.
Auf wiederschrieben,
Herr Professor Bear
P.S.
BwaHaHAhAHAhAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAAHAHAAHAAA!
(Somebody had to say it…)
which city would you be in, herr professor bear
Based on the Grüß Gott I’m gonna say somewhere in Bavaria.
good point. servus
He needs the umlaut:
Herr Professorbär.
I hope y’all have a great time Pbear, I loved Bavaria. Have you been to Rothenburg. Between that and mad king Ludwig’s castles you won’t run out of things to see. You should try to find an alpine slide too, they are like roller coasters where you get to control the brakes. Them Krauts is crazy!
Well, I just feel grateful that someone stepped up to the laughter plate, is all. ‘Cause it was feeling sparse-like.
PB, I am looking forward to your observations, all of them. Real estate and otherwise. Happy travels.
Well, perhaps this means we can eliminate PBear as the possibility secret identity of Mysterious Flying Miser?
That sucking sound? It’s the sound of jobs evaporating.
Ross Perot said it was the sound of jobs going to Mexico.
If all the jobs are coming to Mexico, why are all the Mexicans coming here?
As Ross Perot pointed out:
“There’s no way I can get my labor costs down to $1 an hour,”
“When the U.S. is too expensive and the Far East too far, yes you can, in Yucatan.”
Read about Ross and the 1996 election and why we will never have a 3rd party again in americka
http://www.fec.gov/pres96/presgen1.htm
I wonder what the exact stats are for overtheboarder visitors.
I venture to say, we have an exodus of illegal immigrants.
I think so too (exodus).
DennisN,
Here’s what “I” don’t get. I don’t get it at all.
Why are we so concerned about getting so many people ( that didn’t want to work in the first place ) “back to work”? Their hearts were never in it in the first place.
Shouldn’t we be focused on quality vice quantity? If ( as Bill Gross suggests ) our natural rate of UN may be closer to 9%, why are we contorting ourselves to create employment for so many people that were only “casual” employees to begin with?
In so many cases, what they really need is m-o-t-i-v-a-t-i-o-n so why not begin there? Then we can we can talk about training. NOT elitist, just a thought.
High expenses created the two-income trap. About 8-9 years ago there were noises about one spouse staying home because the cost of working and daycare was more than the second income. That option fizzed out when college tuition, health care, and mortgages got so high. Even people who want to stay home with the kids can’t do it.
BTW, what is a “casual employee?” Are these the ones refusing to do the jobs that illegals are now doing?
oxide,
Again, I’m not exactly sure where I was taking this, I just wanted to get some feedback, so thanks for posting.
By “casual” I mean people, people… like my BROTHER! After having a great career in tech. he decided they didn’t appreciate him for being the genius mom always ’said’ he was so went into finish carpentry. They pay was excellent and he made his own hours.
Still not good enough as the hours he ‘did’ work “cut into his party time”. Got a job doing makeovers for various Target stores in the area. Off and on. Then perfected the art of the Unemployment Claim. Now he works just hard enough to ‘not’ get fired and just -long- enough to initiate another claim! How many young people ( with families they actually SUPPORT ) would kill… for his job? That’s what “I” mean anyway?
Oh yes, we MUST get him “back to work” immediately!
( Dude needs to go thru Re-Hab ‘first’ ) then… we can talk about making him a productive member of the workforce.
Casual == no benefits
High expenses created the two-income trap. About 8-9 years ago there were noises about one spouse staying home because the cost of working and daycare was more than the second income … Even people who want to stay home with the kids can’t do it.
Well said, oxide.
I’m a stay-at-home parent for the time being, but I don’t think it’s sustainable for us in the long-term.
Even in the short/medium term, we have multiple advantages over a typical young family: low debt, low expenses, a thrifty mindset, excellent health insurance (through my wife’s job), relatively high savings, my ability to do freelance work from home, and … of course, renting.
We have many other friends who are managing to pull off a one income family successfully, but the common denominators are A.) conditions similar to ours, B.) one high-paying, stable job, or C.) a combination of the two.
DinOR,
I have a brother like that who sort of bounced from job to job. He’d do a good job when he got hired but any time they’d start to rely on him and tell him he was doing great, he’d let his performance go to pieces. Then he’d laze around for a couple of months before picking up a new job.
That worked fine until there stopped being new jobs to pick up. Now he’s REALLY hurting.
sfbb,
I had a mgr. I completely detested. But the one thing I ‘did’ learn from that OR cowboy was “Work like you could get fired any minute… ( and you’ll always have a job! )”
LOL. I know quite a few people who get by on SSD, off-books part-time work, subsidized housing, food stamps, this and that, go to county health clinic. Some are so fat they couldn’t stand on their feet for long hours anyway, have bad backs, diabetes and well, just all sorts of problems. Others keep real irregular hours, just can’t get up in the morning. They watch a lot of TV and of course can go off about how politicians and everyone make it hard for them to work.
One insists no one will hire her because of her arm tattoos which is BS because you see them everywhere now.
Most all of them were enabled by over-indulgent parents, who sized their kids up as losers who would never make it without their help. I kinda envy them sometimes.
“High expenses created the two-income trap.”
I believe it’s the opposite of that - that two incomes create high expenses.
It’s very difficult to make higher prices stick long term in absence of rising incomes.
It’s very difficult to make higher prices stick long term in absence of rising incomes I’m sure the present generation of financial geniuses will figure out how to make it so.
Eudemon,
I don’t disagree. There is definitely a chicken/egg problem here. However, I don’t think the second income created yuppie couple who wanted lots of goodies. Rather, I think there were two problems:
1. Industries (insurance and education) raised their prices because they KNEW the family had two incomes and could pay.
2. The second income created the need for lots of convenience stuff, which is expensive.
Hmm, now that I think about it, it’s rather amazing that high-fructose corn syrup and corn additives (prepared food), the consumer microwave (for food), the home computer (for entertainment), Cable TV, 24-hour stores, AND AND AND the explosion of consumer credit cards debt culture arrived all at the same time…right about the time women went to work. And we started getting fat at the same time too.
Coinky-dink? Heck no, must be some overarching plot by the Illu..min..ati.
I would argue that there were those in light of the changing social climate of the 60s and 70s made the decision to sacrifice lifestyle for two incomes. Having two incomes is a great trade when only 1 in 25 families suppliment their income this way as there is little tangible effect on prices.
As others saw the wonderful consumer based lifestyle two income families lived, they too sacrificed down time for increased income. They wanted the big house and nice vacation and good toys. It worked great until everyone decided that the consumer based lifestyle based on two incomes was the way to go.
Once that happened, demand rose such that two incomes were required to afford what 40 years ago only required one income. We ended up back where we were before.
“One insists no one will hire her because of her arm tattoos which is BS because you see them everywhere now.”
I see so many younger people sporting a face full of metal, and a body covered with tattoos, and I wonder who hires them. It seems like a hindrance, to me.
“Industries (insurance and education) raised their prices because they KNEW the family had two incomes and could pay.”
I cannot believe how expensive colleges and universities have become. As has been mentioned here before, the financial burden placed on the individual who has to borrow tuition funds is a heavy one. Instead of a goal of education, it turned into a money grab. It’s absolutely disgusting. Tuition’s need to come way down. Will they? That certainly remains to be seen.
I cannot believe how expensive colleges and universities have become … Tuitions need to come way down.
Likewise, I’m appalled by the cost of higher education these days, and have been wishin’ for a (partial) bust in that sector for many years.
I see so many younger people sporting a face full of metal, and a body covered with tattoos, and I wonder who hires them. It seems like a hindrance, to me.
It seems like ‘boring’, to me.
Many, many years ago tattoos were daring and indicated a free spirit, a daring soul, a raconteur, a bon-vivant, etc etc, yada yada..nowadays? Jeeze, man, EVERYONE* has one. My mail-lady has a nice big one. (And I must say, tattoos don’t look quite as cute and counter-culture on a leathery 60- year- old.)
I just wonder what’s gonna be the next thing? You know, when you want to show that you never follow trends?
*Not me. I like my skin the way it is. Translucent. I only decorate myself with Magic Markers sometimes, and glitter, when I get festive.
“And I must say, tattoos don’t look quite as cute and counter-culture on a leathery 60- year- old.”
You can say that again. Methinks that many people are going to be VERY disappointed with their choices to cover their young bodies in tattoos, when they’re old. A tramp stamp might look cute on a young, hip 20 year old gal. Not cool on that leathery sixty year old.
“I just wonder what’s gonna be the next thing? You know, when you want to show that you never follow trends?”
Why, it’s bagel head, of course! Google it, and click images. Where have you been? (Bothering bivalves, I’m sure)
I’m glad you said it Olygal !
I’m no prude either and I have fought my way out of some of the nicest paratrooper, gyrine and biker dive bars known to man but any women take walks into a room with me on rare events in an evening dress won’t be sporting tattos with or without the dress.
Forget it, tattos on a chick, no matter how pretty she is, says to me, this chick has been through the mill, or it gives me and others I associate with the impression she wants to be.
I’m just a clean cut, double-standard kind of a guy that wants an unbranded angel in church and a whore in bed but forget the tattos babe.
Ignition…and flame away, like I give a $hit whatever anyone else thinks on this issue!
I tell my daughters to imagine what those “tramp stamps” are going to look like when gravity has 40 years to work on them.
A buddy of mine way back when drove his girlfriend to get a tat back in the early 90s. I was sitting outside when they came back and she had a dolphin jumping over her navel.
It took me one sip of beer to point out that once she had a kid it would stretch out to a whale.
Neither one of them were much of a friend of mine after that…
but any women take walks into a room with me on rare events in an evening dress won’t be sporting tattos with or without the dress.
That’s how I know you’re a tasteful sort of guy.
Oh, but, ummm.. how do you feel about Magic Markers?
It took me one sip of beer to point out that once she had a kid it would stretch out to a whale.
Oh, my goodness.
I’m saving that remark in my special ‘HBB folder’. I’ll probably never need it but I still want to keep track of it.
I tell my daughters to imagine what those “tramp stamps” are going to look like when gravity has 40 years to work on them.
And I bet your daughters say, with a lot of impatience, “Oh, Daaaaaaad!’ And then they pilfer your pockets for the car keys.
Look. You’re a softy.
Don’t lie to me! I can tell!
Re tuition: ridiculous increases coincided with the rise of the Student Loan industry and with the rise of need-blind admissions (i.e., anyone who has absolutely no money gets to go to Yale anyway).
Re fat: coincides with anti-smoking jihad.
“That’s how I know you’re a tasteful sort of guy.
Oh, but, ummm.. how do you feel about Magic Markers?”
I always planned to empty your pockets of frogs and clams, then boil and scrub you well before we went out for dinner and some fun slumming.
You’ll be fine unless your allergic to soap and hot water Olygal.
as Bill Gross suggests ??
He had a pretty fricken sobering comments this morning on CNBC….Lost decade ?? Maybe a lost generation ??
Bill is ALWAYS shilling for something. Always.
Unemployment was virtually unknown prior to the dominance of large corporations. And even today, there is no reason in principle why the labor market should have trouble “clearing”– just as there is no good reason why houses should sit empty for years without being sold.
The problem is in the way corporations monopolize and distort the labor market. They are able to pay generous salaries in return for years of loyalty and hyper-specialization in pointless rules. When they fail, or have to lay people off, the downsizees often can’t transfer their skills, or find other work at anywhere near their previous levels of income.
They are able to pay generous salaries in return for years of loyalty
What company would that be?
And even today, there is no reason in principle why the labor market should have trouble “clearing”–
I disagree.
One word — outsourcing. This is what globalization does: right now have about 2 billion people competing for 300 million people’s worth of jobs and standard of living. (on average) Result: standard of living finds a weighted average over those 2 billion, which of course is much lower for the original 300 million.
The only way to solve it totally is to either go totally protectionist, OR to reach TOTAL globalization, where 7 billion people compete for 7 billion in jobs and standard of living. Of course, this will never happen. There’s just not enough standard of living to go around. Politics would never allow it, religion would never allow it, and at the end of the epoch, Mother Nature would NEVER allow it. Not enough natural resources.
Maybe we should stop funding NASA
Knowing our luck, we’d develop Warp Drive, and find out that Alpha Centaurians have eight hands, a 300 IQ, and will “do the jobs that Terrans don’t want to do”.
At least they will be easy to spot.
Call it “Galaxyization”.
Another reason for unemployment that is largely ignored is the minimum wage.
The minimum wage encourages companies to classify employees as salaried and work them long hours, it also gives a perverse incentive for manufacturers to outsource jobs overseas.
I’d start a company today and hire a number of people if it weren’t for the over regulation including but not limited to the minimum wage. I’d be willing to bet there are 1000s like me nationwide that have the capability, the capital, and the plan, but are unwilling to take the risk of burial beneath governmental red tape.
DinOR, here’s what I don’t understand. Why do we pay unemployed people to just stay home? There’s a lot of community work that could be done that would improve the quality of life for everyone. I’ve tried to get volunteers to cut weeds and pick up junk and trash around my town, but people would rather sit at home and watch sitcom re-runs on TV. There should be a work component to unemployment checks.
crash1,
Agreed! I realize ( for ‘most’ ) that when you’re unemployed, your “job” is to find… a job, but this is ridiculous. My brother ( no issues ‘there’? ) has milked the system for almost 8 years now.
Mom ( widow on fixed income ) was aghast to find one of his stubs for a weekly “entitlement” amount of over $300! He found that there’s “no rent like free rent” and has been mooching off her for at -least- the last 4 years.
Now he’s permitted himself to slide into such a state of disrepair I’ve no doubt it will be no time at all before he’ll be able to file for SS Disabilty. ( The Ultimate! )
I was thinking about this as well. Perhaps the same with welfare? If you live in the projects, help not make the projects look bad?
But then what would happen is people would rely on those unemployed as cheap labor?
I did a little work for this contract company called Tek Systems. They 1099 everyone. I found that everyone working similar jobs for them (very low rates) were on unemployment.
If Mom is truly “aghast”, why isn’t she charging him a fair market rent? (Assuming I read btw the lines correctly that he is living with her for that “free rent”.) Say, half of his unemployment checks sounds about right. And tell him he needs to buy his own food with the other half.
It sounds like she wants to be aghast, but is instead a classic enabler.
Prime,
No doubt, and I TOLD her as much. That’s when she finally changed the locks. If only… we could get him to eat?
To be fair, she had only briefly drawn UN ( and that was years ago ) so she really had no idea just how “lucrative” it was?
“DinOR, here’s what I don’t understand. Why do we pay unemployed people to just stay home?”
I don’t know about unemployment ins but around here, if you’re going back repeatedly for food stamps etc they will make you take computer classes and do volunteer work. One chronic case I know helps out at the Red Cross.
I’m all for social safety nets. I’m a hard worker but if some calamity struck me I’d like to know that I have some temporary stop-gap measure to help me back on my feet. Key word: “temporary”. What really angers me is how many people in our society make horrible life choices with these safety nets factored in as an entitlement. It’s completely grotesque. Through her workplace my sister knows a young woman who’s had three children with three different fathers (she’s white) and she and her mom just shrug because the gob’t will pay the child support. My sister resents like hell the taxes she must pay to support these losers, who by the way, invite her to baby showers!
Your anger is misplaced. Wall Street has stolen more money from this country than all the welfare cheats combined, yet still most of the anger is directed at those lower in the social order.
Since you read and post here, you are probably angry with Wall Street as well. However, for the average J6P all the anger is directed in the completely opposite direction. Sure, I work hard, and I get annoyed at those who milk the system from the bottom. I also get annoyed at my taxes being wasted in various ways at the city, state, and national levels.
BUT, the people who don’t work so they can eat bad food and watch daytime television, and the five city workers you see leaning on shovels to fill one pothole, are SMALL POTATOES. Getting mad at them is like getting mad that ants got into your picnic basket, when a bear is gnawing on your leg.
Good post Bub. I’ve never considered it that way, but it is intensely common. How many folks blame GM’s fall on the union instead of the guys who actually made the investment decisions? How many folks think this country is falling apart not because of the grand theft of the national treasure by investment banks but because Vermont lets gays get married?
I wonder if it is American social conditioning or some innate human instinct?
I’m not saying there isn’t ’some’ validity to that position, but at this point, it’s more important to focus on the things we ‘can’ change.
Don’t worry, when this admin. is done w/ WS you won’t even recognize it. Long overdue.
I think one of the major disservices we did for the American workforce was when we put a 3-Day Weekend into -every- month! Older posters here recall a time when if Washington’s B’Day fell on a Tuesday, well then ‘that’ is when you celebrated it!
In the early 70’s the travel ind. lobbied to have most Nat’l Holidays moved to a Friday or a Monday to get people to stay longer and spend more. They argued that we’d all be working the same number of days ‘anyway’ and that it will actually -increase- productivity and continuity!
Well I for one don’t see it that way. “Everybody’s workin’ for the weekend..” Rather than submit and surrender to the fact that we’ll spend the majority of our time working, we all became rockstars. For many, where work is concerned, their every action is guided by ramping up for those big weekends. We need to go back. Sorry.
Once again, I see the anger being misdirected to the wrong people.
Divide and conqueror works wonderful doesn’t it?
This has been my point all along. It is the gubmint, ’sanford’types, madoff types, paulson types that have ruined the ’stopgaps’ that were in place. Not perfect, but indeed better than letting “free mkt” run amok/wild with no one getting punished for their greed/corruption.
The other schmucks that are on unemp etc are less than 20% of the entire grp that needed the temporary assistance>Temporary.
“”"”"Good post Bub. I’ve never considered it that way, but it is intensely common. How many folks blame GM’s fall on the union instead of the guys who actually made the investment decisions? How many folks think this country is falling apart not because of the grand theft of the national treasure by investment banks but because Vermont lets gays get married?”"”
I think one of the major disservices we did for the American workforce was when we put a 3-Day Weekend into -every- month!
Yeah, yeah, Wall Street blahblahblah, but what’s REALLY ruined this country is the fact that people get an occasional THREE DAY WEEKEND! Nope, not NAFTA. Or outsourcing. Or thirty years of declining wages. Or our insane health care policies. Or the widening of income inequality to Gilded Age levels. Or the fact that Americans work the longest hours and get the least amount of time off of any major industrialized country. Yeah, can’t even mention those as “major disservices” to the American workforce, when there is a much bigger problem that calls for attention instead: too many three day weekends!
Really? Seriously? Did you just type that? Did I really just read that? My mind is boggled.
I think I’m done reading the comments on this blog for today.
Goodbye.
The folks “milking the system from the bottom” are about to have big problems anyway. Some CA politician pointed out that the reason all the suggested cuts in state services were from programs pointed at the low end of the economic spectrum was because (surprise) almost all the spending was going that way already.
Well, I supposethey can continue to give IOUs to the wealthy for tax refunds and IOUs for state employee paychecks but continue the same benefit levels to the poor. At least until all the state employees become “poor” (besides being functionally unemployed) themselves and the stores become IOU storage warehouses and the rest of the wheels finally come off the train.
Bub Diddley,
A few people agreed with your post ( don’t let it go to your head )
Look, on one hand we’re constantly b!tch slapping down the FB’s, extolling that they “take accountability for their actions” but on the other we’re all of sudden feeling so generous we’re going to give the American Worker a total “pass”?
Hint? They’re one in the same! Additionally, three day weekends aren’t as rare as you’re making them out to be. I think there’s only 1 month that *doesn’t have one. When using adjacent SICK days ( when you run out of Vac. daze ) you can string it out long enough to get a good sense for what “retirement” actually feels like?
The media ( and Lou Dobbs etc. ) are constantly stroking the AW’s ego, but I guess asking you to look at it from a different angle than the steady drumbeat of flattery ( if only for a minute! ) was just too much. I guess we can go back to making that potty-break last 20 minutes now?
But please feel free to go right on playing “hero” to the AW until the last (1) of us is outsourced!
Bub Diddley,
…. that’s fine. Go ahead and take that position. Go right ahead and play “hero” to the American Worker right up until the last (1) of us has had their job outsourced.
Additionally, three day weekends aren’t as rare as you’re making them out to be. I think there’s only 1 month that *doesn’t have one.
Maybe it’s because I work in the private sector, but I have never had a 3-day weekend in the following months except when I used a vacation day:
March
April
June
August
October
and only about half of my employers have given one in February (for President’s Day).
quality vice quantity
This is way off topic, but I’m curious about people who use “vice” instead of “versus” (My understanding is “versus” is the correct term, but perhaps I was taught wrong?)
I know a few people here are ex-Navy…are you one of them, DinOR? Or are you from the St. Louis area originally by chance?
(just trying to find a trend)
drumminj,
Funny you’d bring that up. I’ve heard it said both ways and I believe you’re right. If it ‘is’ a grammatical error, it’s not as glaring as say “irregardlessly”?
I’ve always felt that ‘vice’ was, from a speaking standpoint, more concise. It’s seems to imply “either or” not, “a number of different possibilities” as versus tends to leave in the listener’s mind? Whether or not you’re a fan, Larry King says if you’re going to be successful at interviewing people ( and getting to the bottom line ) you have to do away w/ words like “hopefully” and “potentially”.
One of the things ( now that FB’s have suddenly rediscovered math ) and the glow of the boom has completely worn off, is that now everyone fancies themselves a “hardball player”. You think you were just having a conversation and they’ll startle you by saying “That’s NOT what I asked you!” Then you feel like the one Presidential Candidate that -refused- to raise his hand if he believed in global warming?
Look, I may not be giving you “the answer you ‘want’ ” but please reserve your angst for your elected officials that brought you this mess. The fact that you’re looking for “concrete” answers in a world that’s surviving day-by-day just shows ‘your’ ignorance. I’ll answer how I please. If you want Yes or No answers, I’ll expect to be in deposition. Are we?
Yeah, like a lot of posters here, I’m ex-Navy ( still a Guard member ) and grew up in Chicago.
This is way off topic, but I’m curious about people who use “vice” instead of “versus”
In short, that usage is wrong. You can look it up any number of places.
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/vice
Is saying “vice” just a short way of saying “vs.” which is the written contraction of versus?
I thought “vice” is used as in “vice is nice but incest is the best”. No?
Ahem -
“Vice versa” is a Latin phrase, which means “the situation being reversed” as in, “Ants often find picnics, and vice versa”. It is properly pronounced as “vise-y versa”
“Versus” by itself means “against”. It has often been abbreviated as vs, as in “Yankees vs Redsox tonight at 6″. Many people have the mistakenly pronounced the abbreviation as “vice” instead of “versus”.
“Vice versa” and “versus” are both Latin in origin but mean completely different things and are not interchangeable.
Don’t even get me started on “putting your whatever in a vise”, or “Vice is nice”…
Now you’ve done it……..got me started with the Arkansas jokes.
How does foreplay start in Arkansas?
“You awake, sis?”
I got a million of ‘em……..
What do West Virginians do on Halloween? Pump-kin.
x-Gsfixer, keep going! It is a wknd, almost. Keep the humor coming.
How can you tell whan an Arkansaw girl is a virgin?
She can run faster than her brothers.
(I think I’ve told this one before….)
Guy goes into doctor, says “Doc, I’ve got a real problem”.
Guy drops trou, and “Mr Weenkie” is ORANGE!
Doc says, “You’re right, never seen anything like that before….” So they do tests……and more tests……and lab work……
Month later, Doc calls him in..”We’ve done every kind of test we can think of, and we can’t find any reason for it. we’re wondering if you have had exposure to radiation or hazardous chemicals at work?”
Guy says, “Can’t be that, I’ve been out of work for eight months”
Doc says “What have you been doing all that time?
Guy says, “Not much……..just watching internet porn, and eating Cheetos……..”
and……
Hear about the 13 year old boy that O.D.d on Grandpa’s Viagra?
Got third degree burns on both palms……..
Ahem, yersef, CB. Unless Latin has changed appreciably since I studied it in school, “Vice versa” is pronounced:
WIH-keh WEHR-sah
and it’s literal translation is “the change being turned.”
And Bub,if you’re back reading this, thank you.
Speaking as someone who was laid off 6 weeks ago, not sure what you are trying to imply here. Just because your brother is a FU, doesn’t mean everyone else is.
BTW - he has to be laid off or fired to be able to collect UI - it does not pay out to someone who voluntarily quits.
potential buyer,
I AM sorry to hear that. A few weeks back we discussed on the Portland Blog that often “the trades” lead people down this path? In fact one poster opined that IBEW stands for “I’m Broke Every Winter”!
They get laid off when it’s slow, indulge in a variety of “vices” ( proper use ) and each time come back a little less enthusiastic about “work”. Unfortunately I feel my brother fell into that trap. I don’t know ‘how’ gets UN but as noted above, he has it down to fine science.
potential buyer,
I didn’t mean to make generalizations and I’m heartened to hear you’re angry. People that don’t give a rip actually BRAG about getting laid off.
SaladSD ( above ) describes the situation better than I -ever- could.
Actually It does if your boss is chasing you around the room with his johnson hangin out….That is considered good cause to quit.
———————–
it does not pay out to someone who voluntarily quits.
DJ,
Us lawyers call such situations a “constructive termination”. In general it’s treated just like a firing.
“That sucking sound? It’s the sound of jobs evaporating”
For sure…Wisconsin takes some more job hit losses and Mikwaukee foreclosures rise. I listed some yesterday and here we go again… Abracadabra, Swishing sound and “Poof”…they’re GONE!
Mortgage foreclosure filings up again in June
By Rick Romell of the Journal Sentinel
Posted: July 1, 2009
Click to enlargeForeclosures jumped in Milwaukee County last month, while statewide they essentially maintained their recent elevated levels.
Figures from circuit court show 640 foreclosure actions filed in Milwaukee County in June - up from 527 in May and 463 in June 2008.
http://tinyurl.com/ndweo4
Briggs & Stratton Corp
Briggs to close Jefferson factory, net loss of 430 jobs
Jefferson, eliminating 530 jobs at the facility that makes pressure washers and portable generators.
The world’s largest manufacturer of small gasoline-powered engines said the job reductions will occur by the end of the year and are partly the result of poor market conditions and a need to consolidate production at its factories.
About 100 salaried employees in Jefferson will be offered jobs at other Briggs locations, including Wauwatosa.
Production at the Jefferson plant will be moved to other Briggs factories, including plants in Alabama and Georgia.
The Jefferson facility will be sold, said Laura Timm, a company spokeswoman
http://tinyurl.com/l84zrx
Mikey,
I live in Eagle River. I recently checked the mls, and by my count in Vilas County, there are 841 lake homes for sale priced between 300k and 400k. Real estate transfers are posted very week in the news review. On average, about 15 homes change hands, with 1/3 being above 200k. The problem here, is that these sellers are maxed out on their mortgages to value and can’t sell for less. In pre market normal years, 3 foreclosures a month would have been alot. Now, the average is 16. 90% of which go back to the bank….particuarly M&I.
i don’t see realality setting in here for at least another year.
One property, a lot, sold for 64k in 1997. the owner now is asking 369k for the same lot. One property i looked at on the chain, was listed for 366k. I asked the realtor why this property was worth 366, when i could go down the road and buy a nicer property at 369. She stated to me, “thats what is owed.” Of course the property went into foreclosure and was bought back by the bank for 252k. So, these people felt, because they paid 100k and borrowed 250 more, that they were entitled to get all their money back. Now, thery have nothing. Its going to take some time here for people to realize, that all the boomers have bought and their are no followup generations that can afford these properties. Its just a matter of time.
Eagle River is a nice rec area and they want their “premium” for allowing you to buy there in “God’s country”.
My family owns property in “Another God’s Country” area of northern Minnesota. You wouldn’t believe the price of lakeshore on my mom’s chain of lakes.
Then again, most people won’t believe living there in the dead of winter with a windchill of -40, power out, bringing wood, drawing H20 from a hole in the lake ice for washing and hoping the generator doesn’t conk out with a mini-McMansion full of Christmas relatives you never want to see again.
The ‘beauty of it all”, hunting, fishing snowmobiling and getting away from the city folks always…comes with a Price
Ugh…just the thought of that Xmas Clan gathering still sends chills down my spine !
…and I didn’t even mention all the yacking women, herds of little strange kids, everybodys dogs.
Sheesh… I was two steps and one Jack Daniel’s from walking out onto the ice, putting a blacket over my head and BEGGING the friendly wolves…to please EAT ME !
…must stop thinking …about that one…another christmas…IS comiiiig
Sounds like Mikey needs to catch himself a nasty case of influenza (with GI distress added for emphasis,) round ’bout Xmas time.
“Sorry, Mom (wratch, bleeeghhh,) I’m too sick to even get out of bed. You guys go on without me and I’ll try to get up there later.”
Production at the SHOP-STEWARD LABOR-UNION Jefferson plant will be moved to other Briggs factories, including plants in NON-UNION Alabama and Georgia.
Did I clean up the grammar correctly?
NO worries….O man is on the job and 3.5-4 million jobs are about to materialize. Got brooms?
It’s good for gubmint work!
If you think the unemployment numbers are bad now, imagine how bad they would be if they had not “created or saved” 4 million jobs already!
These ‘jobs saved’ by the gov are just as nebulous and unverifiable as ’souls saved’ by the televangelist. And they both want our money to do it! Of course, only one is allowed to legally mug us every year. (And year round through deficit spending!)
sfbb,
Too funny. While we’re at it, how about as unverifiable as those that were “priced out”?
More verifiable are those that have now become “negative equity stranded.”
But the gov doesn’t like to count those people.
Why are you complaining? At least people are working and not living on the dole.
Because the net cost for those “jobs” will end up being greater than the benefit.
Misallocation of resources will never cause an economy to recover. The stimulus plan will only serve to blow another bubble, a government debt bubble that can only end with the collapse of our currency.
I got me a railroad spike driver AND a shovel. Let’s do it!
The Boston Glob had “advice” for a home buyer that had his low ball offers ignored by the seller. The advice was given by a realtard. It is hilarious to see the “buy now or forever be a renter” mantra that permeates the glob, and how they shoudl treat sellers fairly.
For me buying a house is a business transaction that I as a buyer control. I will decide how much to offer, and if not accepted will move on to the next one, until somebody is willing to negotiate. I hold the cards in my hand because I have the money….
That is what has been missing for 10 years around here, and now that it is coming back, some very shocked sellers are finding out that no, your house is only worth what the greatest fool is willing to pay for it, and the appraisal will come in at what the SECOND greatest fool will buy it at, so get used to it.
The website is here:
boston.com/realestate/news/articles/2009/06/26/lowball_offers_fail_buyers/
I second your motion as the Buyer being “in-Control” the controling party of the RE transaction!
I myself have made several “low-balls” (at least 100K < asking price) in the NoVa area that have been scoffed at by Sellers.
They come back with a counter offer 10K less than their list price or countered at full list.
Mind you that both of the homes have been on the Market more than 1 year & 1 was owned outright & 1 was owned by a Relo company.
That’s Ok, I’ll eventually find someone that HAS to move, can lose the (fake) equity or bought early enough that are not underwater.
I will keep trying!!
I contend the banks are in control. The were in control on the way up, what makes you think they aren’t on the way down? I explain this to deluded RE believers when they dig in their heels and say their house ‘value’ isn’t going down. Banks set the price on the way up and are now setting price on the way down.
What he said…….by owning the foreclosed property, and controlling the amount that someone can borrow against a house.
The only ones not affected are the cash buyers…….the real standoff is between them and the banks. Since it is against the interests of the banks (and by extension, all levels of government) for house prices to completely melt down, expect five-ten years of what we have now.
Now, if all the current mortgage holders that were underwater decided to walk at the same time……..
the offer mst be accompanied by a check with available funds. I can’t even remember the amount - like 3% or so. Other than that, it’s about 20 minutes of paperwork loaded with contingincy holes is all it’s gonna cost you.
I plan to make about 50 of these offers when the time is finally right.
Took a look at that link. The author is a realtor. No wonder she gave the advice she did. And it was sort of condescending in tone. Check out some of the poster comments. Seems like the boston area is another one of those “it’s different here” types..
One poster even said, “bargin hunters stay away”..Ok, we will…
It runs deep here in the Hub of the Universe.
I love all the people that say they don’t want a lowball offer. Fine. No offer for you!
One of the commenters start out with:
“Lowball offers are often considered a sign of disrespect..”
I had thought it’s a sign that you don’t want to pay anywhere near the asking price. Thank goodness I read the globe.
From now on, I’m going to start acting disrespected when people tell me their asking price. “449K You dis’ing me!” “How dare you!” “It’s like you’re reaching into my wallet!” “The nerve of some people.”
Check out the comment I left..
Wonder if I will allowed to post again?
I’ve received “your lowball offer is an insult” from
many a Realtor.
My response has always been “your highball price is the real insult”
I will gladly accept cold stares, insults, and intimidation
from Realtors wearing expensive suits in exchange
for hundreds of thousands (+ interest!) in savings.
I even had a Realtor tell me one time that I would be
“blacklisted” [for making lowball offers]
and no Realtor (in my area) would ever
speak to me again!
Hmm…. Maybe thats a good thing! <;)
At the end of the day it really doesn’t matter who
feels insulted. You and me are the guys with the
checkbook. Last time I checked, my money
is just as green as anybody else.
When was this? 2005?
Oxide:
Summer of 2009
Here in the O.C (Irvine, Ca.) prices [with
the exception of an area known as
Shady Canyon] are in a stalemate.
So far, sellers haven’t blinked. Ditto for buyers.
One way to breakup the log jam is to lowball.
Dang! I would have thought that, by this time, Realtors would have ditched that sort of ‘tude. And how do you blacklist a buyer anyway? They collude to refuse to take your money?
Oxide:
On reflection, it has occured to me that Realtors (at
least many I know in my area) and Bernie Madoff
have something in common.
That is, in order to be considered to even buy, you must
become a member of some sort of elitist club.
After all, ‘”it’s different here” and so very exclusive..
Of course, once you are accepted for membership, the
true believers don’t ask each other embarrassing
questions such as “isn’t this price too high?”
The flippers in ‘Shady Canyon’ had to have resources to buy. Oh… the schadenfruede.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Well, then it would behoove ‘buyers’ to become licensed RE persons on the side and then they can always make their best offers and submit their offers willynilly w/o other RE agents.
Or doesn’t it work that way in this scenario?
“Lowball offers are often considered a sign of disrespect..”
They’re right !
Greetings Dear Realtywhore and Greedy Owner,
Please convey my humble and repectful lowball UNSIGNED CONTRACT offer to your greedy seller. This cash offer is valid for 24 happy hours Standard Earth Time with no extentions and subject to all of my contingencies and finalized by review of my friendly, yet deal killing attorney and my signature.
Please don’t call me after 7:00 pm as I might have a date and other things on my evil little mind. If you have a Phantom buyer suddenly appear in your mind, give them my heart felt Congratulations as they own the subject moneypit.
No counter-offer is warranted or wanted as THIS is my origional and final offer. Be prepared to close in 30 days or I move on to the next of many POS housess down the pike and your friends rot on the lot.
My lawyer requests a signed refusal by the owners because that’s the Rules of the RE Game in THIS State and I’m a law abiding BUSINESS person.
Warm and fuzzy Respectful Hugs,
Sincerely Yours,
mikey and the squirrels
I wonder how many maybe-buyers are pulling games of their own on FB’s and realtards.
How many “buyers” these days actually are acting as a mark in a roundabout way - where their going in and low-balling the h@ll out of a given offer, seeing what the true price might be, passing this info. along to the actual potential buyer, who then shows up about a week later to submit a real bid.
Might be worth it to pay a friend or two 100 bucks each to see what they can find out.
The entertainment value counts for something, too!
They offer $445K on a $499K listing? I don’t even consider that a “lowball”. I read an article one time (don’t have the link handy) that said anything less than 80% of asking price is “technically” the definition of a lowball. They were offering just under 90% of asking.
That response is extremely condescending. Rude people suq.
Did you see this in the reply from the Realtron?
After they lose a few homes, I remind them that the sense of one-upmanship, pride, or illusory hard-nosed bargaining that they are cultivating with those “rules” is pretty meaningless if they don’t ever get any of the homes they are trying for!
“After they lose a few homes…”
You mean to foreclosure?…Wait, no, that only happens after the gullible buyer believes the crap all you criminals are spieling, and fatally overextends herself so she doesn’t OFFEND the seller…
No patience for this crap, none at all.
x-philly,
Made my day, thanks!
What was the old line I learned from here? “If you’re not embarrassed about the offer, you’re offering too much.”
I hate hate hate hate HATE the whole “win and lose” vocabulary that has emerged around buying something that more than one person may want. I don’t “win” a house when I buy it. I have my bid accepted. I don’t “win” an auction on e-bay. I have the highest bid at the end of the auction.
Purchasing something is not winning evn if you can afford it. And buying something at a price you cannot afford is not winning.
There. I feel better now. I’ve had that rant bottled up inside much too long.
There. I feel better now. I’ve had that rant bottled up inside much too long.
We’re here for you, baybee.
The point is that foreclosures and short sales will set the values in most neighborhoods . Sure ,some of the foreclosures need some repairs ,but if you have foreclosures and short sales making up a huge % of the sales ,than those sales becomes the market value . If the area is a unstable area in which every other house is a foreclosure ,(as you find in some of these new home tracts
bought at the peak boom price ), than its a declining value neighborhood . You can’t take a house and isolate it from its environment or employment or market conditions .
Since the housing boom was riddled with fraudulent loan applications and appraisals during the boom , you could say that
this market is a correction of that fraud market .You define a buyer by being “a willing and able buyer” conducting a arms length transaction “. During the boom ,a huge percentage of the buyers were not really “able buyers “. You get 5 people on the block that bought who were not able and you created a fake price market of false demand
because of the fraud and toxic low qualifying no down loans .
The appraisers took all the comps during the boom and did not
know which ones were the by-product of fraud ,low down payments and toxic loans,or speculation .You can’t say that loan agents and other parties comprising the REIC threatening the appraisers is a example of a neutral arms length transactions .
So, this is why the government can’t re-inflate this baby.
Housing Wizard,
Allow me to re-phrase that for you,
“The appraisers took **ALL** the comps during the boom and did not know which ones were the by-product of FRAUD”
There, fixed! Exactly my friend. They were basing their assumptions off of defective ( and deceptive ) data! It’s a big hole to fill, even by government standards.
Thank you DinOR .
Residential real estate is done by market comps ,but the
presumption is that the transaction is arms length and the buyer is a willing and able buyer,and the market isn’t declining . Certainly a huge percentage of the purchases at the peak of the boom were speculation and the buyers had no intentions of even living in the property .
If you have that much of a demand from flippers and speculators ,than it’s a set up for a big fall . Add that many buyers didn’t qualify and the down payments were low with no skin in the game . Add the transactions that were cash back fraud and you have a fraudulent market with no basis in the value that was given .
In spite of the real estate prices being determined by a “crime wave” during the boom years ,the talking heads won’t touch this concept with a 10 foot pole because …….well
than people would bitch about it more . How would you like your property taxes raised based on fraud in lending and appraisals on a massive scale ?
Everybody knows what I’m saying ,but I restate it from time to time . The nerve of the REIC to now want to go back to them controlling the appraisal process so they can get “Hit the Mark Appraisal .” What a joke ,the Appraisal is the most important part of a loan ,including the potential for a decline in the market further .
X-philly - I thought perhaps the reference was to the buyer, rather the seller. If it is, how does a buyer “lose” a home unless someone else steps in and buys it? Unlikely that is happening in any noticeable amount.
My own lowball story was 18 months ago. Owner accepted an offer that was less than 10%, net, higher than mine - BUT it was subject to sale of the buyer’s house where my offer was cash, no contingencies. The original owner still owns the house. I told our agent to cut our offer by 28% if the seller came slinking back but I think the seller had too much ego to do so.
We’ve made offers on 3 or 4 houses in the last couple months that we “lost” to a better offer.
Funny thing though, none of them have closed escrow.
Pinch;
“For me buying a house is a business transaction that I as a buyer control. I will decide how much to offer, and if not accepted will move on to the next one, until somebody is willing to negotiate. I hold the cards in my hand because I have the money…”
Exactly. If someone is unwilling to negotiate, they either are not serious or are getting extremely bad advice.
If you find yourself as a buyer in a market where no seller will negotiate, that should be your first clue that the market is broken, and you should look elsewhere or find an alternative. In the absence of negotiation, there is no market - just a rigged game.
Simple example - I have a favorite kind of wine, of which I purchase maybe one bottle per week from the local liquor store. One day, I noticed that the price had risen from $18 to $22. So I mentioned to the owner that I could buy the same bottle direct from the winery for $16 plus shipping, but I would be happy to pay him the $18 for the convenience of his stocking it for me. And I did not buy the wine. Two weeks later, he had gone back to his distributor, renegotiated his price, and the retail price was back to $18 at his store. And I am back to buying the wine from him.
Overseas RE question.
I’ve got a friend of mine selling his flat in London (England). Well, to be precise, he *wants* to sell his flat in London; he hasn’t put it on the market yet.
Since he’s out of work now, his plan is to sell it and use the proceeds and just rent. Sounds like a decent plan on the face of it, especially, as I point out to him, that renting makes him more mobile for the next job. Would have been a better plan financially if he’d done it last year or the year before, though.
The problem is, he says the market is “not so good” right now, and so he’s planning on keeping up with the mortgage till next year and sell it then “when prices recover”. I think he’s gone mad, but then maybe I’m reading the wrong blogs.
Anyone got a feel for the UK market, specifically starter flats?
Its just as bad as the US, London was very bubbly too. Tell him to check out housepricecrash.co.uk
I get the sense that, if anything, the major markets in the UK are worse than their counterparts in the US.
That’s what I’m thinking, especially with the price:income ratios there that seem like California before the bust. He says that “Everyone with money wants to live in London”, and so that will keep prices up. Yeah, it’s different there! He wasn’t there in the early 1990’s price bust, though, and was a young renter anyway then, so he doesn’t imagine that such a thing can happen.
I just think that what with council tax, insurance, and mortgage interest, he’s better off selling now rather than accumulating another year of those costs and then hoping the market price goes up enough to cover it. Gawd, did I say “goes up”? Sounds ridiculous!
(Actually, I told him to bail out a couple of years ago when he got a job in the USA and left his flat empty. ‘twould have been perfect market timing back then.)
Just came back from London. Saw a lot of for sale signs.
surprise me as well. Stayed in Belgravia on hotel points (very trendy part of town which includes Sloan square) - and the amount of signs was substantial.
UK is definitely as bubbly as the US, if not more.
In the news every day in the UK.
Lots of sale signs everywhere.
Anyone here have any experience using sites like LendingClub? I’m thinking about opening an account and trying it out, but I’d like to hear any experiences that others have had. My cash balances are just killing me on the interest earned, it makes me sick to see the returns that I’m currently getting!
Its not the return on capital, but the return of capital you have to worry about these days.
Nice one Skroodle!
I would rather have my money under the matteress in my hand than in the hands of some money manager. Time to tighten the belt!
Michael needs money for burial expenses.200k might help.
Maybe you could lend it to California?
And the impact of several states starting the day with no spending plan in place? We are in new territory here folks.
The cancellation of summer school here in L.A. alone has got to be a shock to the system. Working parents must arrange childcare, and you’ve got all these kids running the streets all day.
And pray that you don’t need to visit the DMV for anything.
IMHO the decline of the equities market had more to do with the issuance of warrants in Cali than the unemployment figures. It is in effect an anti-stimulus plan.
Compare it v. other’s losses and enjoy your weekend. If you think we are at the bottom - buy. If you don’t, than I don’t understand your concern.
Michael Fink,
*Not Investment Advice!
I have several clients that have used “Prosper” to juice their yields. They grade credit A thru E and I ‘believe’ they are no longer lending to anyone below a “C”. There are also “affinity Groups” you can join so if you only want to lend to say Vet’s or Steamfitters or whatever you can do that as well.
Fees: There -are- fees and you can pay them to your “upline” or start a new group and go it alone. Given the sophistication of your posts, I shouldn’t think it would be a problem. You can also ladder your portfolio so as not to be too concentrated in one individual w/ as little as $50 on any one loan. And obviously steer clear of flippers w/ an “iron clad” biz plan.
DinOR
I’m also curious about online banking accounts. I’ve been reading a book by a friend-of-a-friend called I Will Teach You to be Rich. At first glance, I thought the author, Ramit Sethi, was a Kiyosaki devotee, but, once I got into the book, I found that it made a lot of sense.
He’s big on using online banks like ING and Emigrant Direct for special savings projects — downpayment for a house, a nice wedding, that sort of thing.
What do the HBB homies think?
Arizona Slim,
Actually Michael and I were talking about something a little different. Groups like Prosper.com have members that make loans to other members. Some people there are both investors and borrowers.
It’s all about abandoning traditional banking relationships in favor of more community organized efforts. Now, they ‘do’ still pull fico scores etc. but the guidelines are a little different. Because you are getting your loan from a multitude of different individuals, they don’t loan w/ the same midset as a singular bank! In many cases, a default by a borrower could mean as little as a $50 loss to each individual lender.
It’s all organized on line and trad. bankers said they would be put to a quick and merciless death. AFAIK, they are still operating.
Anybody here in line to get paid one of those newfangled California IOUs? This guy put together a handy-dandy chart showing who gets the IOUs and who gets paid in real cash.
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/07/01/california-the-haves-and-have-nots/
Summary: big guys get cash, little guys get the IOUs.
Summary: big guys get cash, little guys get the IOUs?
Summary: Unions control the State…
A friend of mine this morning mentioned that CA bonds have decent yields and that the state’s G.O. bonds are second only to education bonds in seniority. I wonder if CA plans to use IOUs to pay the coupons on those — wouldn’t make sense to irritate bond owners that way, but they do a lot of crazy things in California.
I’ll get an IOU instead of a tax return.
Well I’m up here on the NY/VT border in homey town. I pleased to report some progress in the wall of denial demolition. A newly minted realturd(broker level) who is a friend of family conceded that “it’s over and it’s not coming back for a very long time”. What is interesting or disturbing depending on perspective is that his assertion is after the fact and obvious. Yet when I explained this 3 years ago using hard facts and data, my words fell on deaf ears. I’m not sure why people give the realturd pukes such credibility but they do. Nevertheless, the crash is finally here and playing out as I said it would. Yes of course there are a few sales at lower prices……. which are setting the new comps and I contend these new sales today are tomorrows foreclosures. My RE is an investment believing brother finally conceded to me yesterday that his 125 essentially worthless wooded acres (with not access) won’t fetch $1000/acre… not today not for a very long time(his words). My RE believing brothers focus is still strangely stuck on “the rich people who bought weekend ‘homes’”, yada yada yada. All I can say about that is that alot of oversized shacks stuffed with extras were built here. The costs on these places will never be recovered given the type of economy. People here live frugally for the most part. Some try to copy the metro-morons and their gross display of wealth, only to crash and burn.
Wifey, daughter and I spent some time driving around towns in northern warren and essex counties…. for sale signs growing like weeds, sales have collapsed in these areas by 30-80% depending on town. The rust belt rot has resumed here as I said it would years ago. And make no mistake about it, this is the rust belt, appalachia of the north.
“wall of denial demolition” LOL!
Sounds like news from the “Economic Quarantine Zone” or The Onion’s “Financial Fallout Shelter”!
Exeter,
Are these for sale signs primarily in the higher market niches or spread out?
I enjoyed hearing the report from the east. Onondaga/Madison is weird. Complete bifurcation going on in a way I can’t get my head around. Local real estate forum has people talking about homes moving in days. One w/multiple bids. I see that here but other areas you’d think would be doing ok too are sinking fast. I’d love to understand why people are paying list price here and turning their back on the other towns w/decent incomes/schools.
Define high niche. I’m not being a wise ass but my native family and friends have called a swamp “water front” and put a waterfront price on it.
My observations are this…… typical 3/1 ranches built circa 1968-1998 are a dime a dozen. So are lots. And the quantity of them grows as you move further out from these small town centers…. or whats left of them. So yes, stuff is selling and at what appears to be a lower price. I pay no attention to the all flash no cash mcmansion in the tundra BS. What’s very interesting is that the local discussion is precisely about “those rich people and their big houses”. Never about the chronically underemployed hack (which is just about everyone here) who paid 3x for their shack or the fact that their shack is worth a whole lot less. The level of ignorance among the natives and my family is very sad. Their eyes glaze over when I say “you’re going to have to work for your retirement like everyone else; a house is not an investment”.
I think the sentiment is precisely what CobaltBlue so eloquently stated; They’re looking to get out from under it as opposed to cashing in if my brother and his worthless land is any indication.
I recently visited my son and granddaughters in Rennselaer County (Averill Park) NY. While we were there took some day trips to Adams, Mass area and Bennington, Vermont area. Everywhere I go these days the For Sale signs add up up to one undeniable fact - there is much much more pressure to get out from under RE than there is to “get some before its gone”.
I was at SUNY Albany in the 70’s as a grad student. I would have a lot of apprehensions if I were in grad school there today. As you say the feeling of rust belt rot is very strong. There must be hundreds of thousands of formerly flush NYC/Albany/Fairfield/Boston types who had second properties up in the woods. Now their net worth has been flushed down the sewer. And the good times won’t be coming back anytime soon, IMHO.
their net worth has been flushed down the sewer ?
The wealth destruction is enormous particularly in the “private sector” middle class…Just like the depression, the wealthy will mostly escape…The poor had nothing to begin with and will rely on government, minimum pay jobs, charity or a combination of all three…The “New” middle class is now government jobs…
scdave,
absolutely right. The new middle class is anyone who doesn’t have to compete with Chindia (because we can’t). That is government, health care & education (to some extent they are all one and the same). Everyone else is going to be on a long, downward trajectory.
And don’t think we can compete with Chindia. Folks can talk about American innovation, but it doesn’t matter because it is still cheaper to have the innovative products produced by Chindians with just the profits coming back to a very few Americans.
And that innovation will decline as we forget how to engineer & produce products in the first place.
Real estaters don’t have to compete either, but they are so overbuilt that they are needless for decades.
Yep…Its not only cheaper in chindia but whatever they can’t invent they will just steal and copy it…
‘Everywhere I go these days the For Sale signs add up up to one undeniable fact - there is much much more pressure to get out from under RE than there is to “get some before its gone”.’
Here here! A refreshing quip. Well said.
exeter -
Just wondering - why are you looking at Warren and Essex counties?
Are the property taxes lower than in Bennington, Rutland or Addison?
I’m uncertain of that sfjack. I know the property taxes have spiraled upward on the NY side significantly in the last 3 years. I was tooling around Warren and Essex because that is where I have my 5th wheel parked for a short vacation an I have family on both sides of the border.
This morning while I was waiting for today’s bit bucket thread to open, I took a look at yesterday’s bit bucket thread and found this.
There you go, Muggy:
Comment by Muggy
2009-07-01 19:50:48
WOW — we are a looooonnnggg way from the bottom. I’m’a have a crazy busy day tomorrow. Can someone repost this? I’m speechless.
“DADE CITY, FL — Thomas Davis secured a $150,000 home equity line of credit on his elderly mother’s home last year, authorities said.
Within seven months, he had spent it all — on drugs, a hydroponic garden for growing marijuana, even on a $40,000 party that Davis, 47, threw for himself, the Pasco County Sheriff’s Office said.”
http://www.tampabay.com/news/publicsafety/crime/article1014966.ece
Wow. This guy sets a new standard for bad behavior. Total loser.
This morning on the Today Show, Matt Lauer toured the main house at MJ’s Neverland Ranch. Hey, it’s a pretty nice-looking structure. It looks like a cross between a Tudor and a log cabin. Lots of beautiful wood and stone. It seems a little extravagant, but it’s tasteful.
(probably because the house is empty. It was the furnishings that were weird. All-sequin bedspread? TMI, Mr. Lauer!)
Why is it empty? Did something happen to Michael? I haven’t seen anything on the news.
After his pedophilia trial, Michael never went back to the ranch. A few months ago, somebody (Sony?) removed all the furnishings and tried to put to them up for auction (to pay debt? I don’t know). MJ found out and sued. The stuff is on its way back to the ranch now. They want to turn it into a Jackson family retreat.
They might want to remove the “adult alarm.”
“Macaul-iiiiiiieeeeeeeeeee”
“Why is it empty? Did something happen to Michael? I haven’t seen anything on the news.”
Hahahhahahahhahahahaa!!
Tragically, Michael passed away. Of course with the deep economic crisis and various world conflagrations, our news organizations just couldn’t find time to report on it what with their deep & insightful analysis of global goings-on.
The Jackson death didn’t even make the headlines on the PBS NewsHour with Jim Lehrer last night, would you believe it? They instead had useless and uninteresting gunk like an interview with General Odierno, who’s conducting the pullout from cities in Iraq. Oh, and one of the correspondants is in Russia, reporting on the culture in preparation for some global summit. Like, who cares.
(snark, duh).
I thought some billionaire bought it and renamed it, no?
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5610PP20090702
NY City apartment sales down over 50 percent
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Manhattan apartment sales plunged more than 50 percent and the average price dropped 21.4 to 24 percent from a year ago, as the U.S. recession forced many who own a piece of the Big Apple to eat humble pie, several reports said.
**********
I knew a few of you here would enjoy this report.
Uh, jailbait
Shattered… shattered
I can’t give-it-away on 7th Avenue!
Shattered… shattered
Bite the Big Apple
( don’t mind the maggots! )
Uh, jailbait
Dinor:
But there are some Puerto Rican girls there just “dyin’ to meet ya.”
For those afflicted with Stones Deficiencies, I am not picking on Puerto Ricans or girls. They are in the lyrics.
Recalling with far away eyes…
milkcrate,
LOL! After years of the Great Stones/Beatles Debate I heard one rock writer finally put the difference between the two to rest:
“The Beatles wrote of women and love, The Stones wrote of women too ( but seldom of love )”
I never understood why it was apparently impossible to like both bands.
I like neither! But I can dig Pink Floyd.
I never understood why it was apparently impossible to like both bands.
It was always a false dichotomy dreamed up by the music press.
sfbb,
To a point, myself included. For me, the truth is, I like them equally ( when… ) they were basically covering Chuck Berry songs! ( and Chuck is where this whole business started )
By the time the Beatles were busying themselves becoming “the voice of a generation” with Hey Jude, TLAWR… yawn, The Stones were still pumping out that primitive, primal beat. Can’t You Hear Me Knocking, Brown Sugar etc.
“I” happen to believe, had it not been for disco, they would have never tinkered w/ the formula at all.
ET Chicago,
M….ostly true. Andrew Loog Oldham worked w/ both groups and it turned out they we “packaged” ( by coincidence ) as complete opposites. It was actually the Beatles that were pill-popping beer swilling louts, and the Stones were quiet well mannered kids.
The only ‘exception’ I take is that the Beatles performed their last gig 40 years ago, so the term “always” wouldn’t apply.
On my second cup of brew, I had a thought I wanted
to share…
How many of you have heard the term “don’t take this personally, it’s just business’?
For me, when ever I hear this, I turn and run because there is nothing more personal to me than my business. I slap my back pocket to make sure my wallet is still there and never look back. Just as I never do business with a guy (gal) who pontificates
about his religious virtuosity by having a big old
bible laying on his desk…I run…
Thoughts?
I never was told that line, although I heard that saying on movies before. I do agree about the bible deal. Some of the least honest people I ever met were ordained ministers. One stole $75,000 worth of business equipment (today’s dollars) from my dad in the 1970s.
One classic story says it all: Tartuffe, by Molière. Every social conservative bible thumper should read that before pontificating. Because the rest of us are onto those types. It will save the social conservatives from embarrassing themselves.
Bill,
I’ll leave the Bible out of it for now but the reason I now work independently is directly attributable to a succession of bosses that ‘thought’ they were in a movie!
Everyone in mgmt. now is/was trying to “create that ‘epic moment’ ” like Steve Jobs with his bare feet up on the desk in Pirates Of Silicon Valley or Vin Diesel in Boiler Room. I never minded “the grind” ( in fact I rather like it ) it was just all the “drama” I could live without!
Bye Vin, Bye Gordon.
My father was never a real religious guy. The type who really didn’t spend a lot of time thinking about it. As he got older I think he wanted to get into it a little bit so he started to read the Old Testament. Wanted to do a cover to cover thing. He got a short ways in and told me “that’s the nuttiest s**t I’ve ever read!”. He put it down and never looked back.
I think a lot of pastors are that way. They know its crazy stuff but they can make a decent living fleecing the flock. And that just spills over into other aspects of their lives.
Jon, your father saw what Richard Dawkins sees:
“The God of the Old Testament is arguably the most unpleasant character in all fiction: jealous and proud of it; a petty, unjust, unforgiving control-freak; a vindictive, bloodthirsty ethnic cleanser; a misogynistic, homophobic, racist, infanticidal, genocidal, filicidal, pestilential, megalomaniacal, sadomasochistic, capriciously malevolent bully.” - Richard Dawkins The God Delusion
I also like this: “Blasphemy is a Victimless Crime” - witty saying on a bumper sticker that Richard Dawkins saw.
Or when someone starts a statement with “to be honest with you…”
They’re almost always about to tell you a lie or half-truth.
At the end of the day= Tax and Crap
Or when someone starts a statement with “to be honest with you…”
Yar! That’s the one IIIII heed, right there. ‘To be honest’, or else ‘Frankly…’
To me that’s the clearest sign that I’m not going to be hearing either honesty or frankness from this person.
And ‘Don’t take this personally, it’s just business?’… Wha…? What a stupid phrase. Of COURSE I’m a gonna take whatever it is personally. Like Rancher says, what’s more personal than my business?
Morning Oly!
Frankly, to be honest with you, I’ve already
been out to the garden and started weeding…
Going to bust a hundred degrees today down here in southern Oregon.
Good morning, Ranchaaa.
Now I’m on MY second cup of coffee. It’s from New Guinea via Costco and has a pretty blue butterfly on the bag, which is probably why I bought it. Then it turned out to be tasty.
I did not weed this morning, I wisely stayed in bed and listened closely to a bird that was singing outside my window as I woke up. It sounded like my Singer sewing scissors snipping along, except somehow also sweet in tone.
At this time I’m sitting here pretending to be working industriously.
“Nothin personal” is also a phrase that I’ve detected as a sign of a weak mind and generally a weak person.
It seems to say; “If the playing field were level, there’s no way I could beat you. So I hope you understand that I have to resort to underhanded tactics”.
“Frankly, to be honest with you, I’ve already
been out to the garden and started weeding…
Going to bust a hundred degrees today down here in southern Oregon.”
- - - parallel universe rejoinder - -
Well, in northern California they are earnestly gardening the weed, Frank.
They might go bust or get busted but it’s highly likely they’re starting to get high up there, 100%, for sure!
Oly,
While you were in bed resting up for the day, my first cup was sipped on the back porch overlooking the creek. A doe stepped
timidly from the undergrowth and ventured
out into the grassy area between the creek and the house. Seconds later her fawn crept
out and joined her. Scenes like this are
a constant reminder of what a wonderful world we have when we can slow down and
observe mother nature.
Awww….! Bugg*er nature!
*appalled gasp. I can’t believe I said that! Anyway, I don’t mean it—I have moss specks in my hair this very minute, in fact, and plenty of nature on my shoes and rubbed into my knuckles *
Bugg*er deer, then! I remember the good ol’ days when I liked seeing deer wandering around my yard. I was iggerant then.
Those wretched deer, they can smell my delicious veggies and roses and lilies in my fenced-off back yard and they hang around just waiiiiiiiting for the lovely moment when I will forget to latch either gate, so they can dash in there and gobble themselves so full that they can’t even waddle and have to ROLL themselves back out, like that one transformed blueberry girl in Willie Wonka’s chocolate factory.
Those deer are like freakin’ Viet Cong in their cunning and guile! For a while they were actually tunneling under my fence, through a space I would have thought wouldn’t have passed a tennis-ball. I happened to behold it in action one time and was struck dumb with amazement.
NOWadays if they got in they would meet ‘Mr. Zappy’, which is a nice electrical fence I put up so that raccoons, possums, and bunnies wouldn’t fondle my veggies. I betcha deer wouldn’t like it either…
Hmmm. Maybe I’ll leave the gates open tonight and then sit out there eagerly waiting for a comical sight.
Although I will admit that the prettiest sight in the whole world is a newborn fawn the size of a cat following its mother through the forest, all dappled with sunlight-looking spots on its back.
…But then it grows up, see. And becomes another Viet Cong deer.
cobaltblue,
LOL, Olygal! You beat me to it, exposing the eeeevil agenda of deer, and in such a poetic way. No gardener could ever be accused of having a “Bambi complex”.
At the other end of the size spectrum, and nearly as destructive, is the chipmunk.
Oly,
We live in the city = no hunting. On the
ranch we had two groups of deer, about
35 all told, but they stayed faaaaaaaar away
from the ranch headquarters.
About the only way the deer could get to our
garden is if they followed an M-1 Abrams tank
through the fencing. Nothing gets into our
garden, nothing.
Nothing gets into our
garden, nothing.
You challenge me, sirrah!
I happen to lovvvvve fresh vegetables and fruit, and I happen to love absconded-with fresh vegetables and fruit best of all.
(I learned that as a wee lass, growing up in the remote sticks of Utarr. But you know what? It’s still true, that’s what. )
So, anyway, moving on….
…Say, where do you live, again, Ranchaaaa?
LOL, Olygal! You beat me to it, exposing the eeeevil agenda of deer, and in such a poetic way. No gardener could ever be accused of having a “Bambi complex”.
Yes, verily, I am super poetic, especially on THIS subject. Hmmm. Oh, here we go, a haiku:
Electricity:
Is it popular with deer?
Let’s find out right now!
OG
Hhahahaah!
Dang, Elanor, there must be a ’silly poetry’ filter, because I see no haiku appearing.
I think I might have used the “to be honest” and been honest. :-/
Ya mutant. Quit confusing me!
I’ve used them both, so I guess I’m a lyin’ scumbag, and didn’t even know it.
Guess i’ll have to go back to, “Do you want to hear the “official line”, or do you want what I really think?”.
I’m trying to break my “like” habit. So like… it’s difficult.
Like, I so sympathize.
RE: the discussion above about lowballing - I agree that business and personal are separate. If I lowball your home offer, it’s not for personal reasons (i don’t like or trust you), it’s for business reasons.
I don’t quite hear that, I hear “don’t take this personally, it’s me, not you” line. I usually dump the dinner check on her when that happens.
A closely related line is “It’s really not about the money.”
Whenever you hear that one, grab your wallet, because you can bet your last nickel that it really is about the money.
“don’t take this personally, it’s just business” is just a way for someone who is going to do a difficult/dirty/morally questionable thing to feel better about themselves. If it’s “just business” they are somehow doing the right thing or it’s beyond their control, etc.
You’re not supposed to take getting laid off or similar “personally” because “it’s not you”.
Admit it……. a lot of people on this blog lowball just to pi$$ people off. There is another way…….
A guy I know who figured out a long time ago that a car (along with a house) has a person’s personality wrapped up in it. He figured out that if you really WANT TO BUY what someone is selling, it is best to not pi$$ them off.
His tactic is to say something like, “Yes I know that your house/car is probably worth more than I’m offering, but this is what I can afford…….” No lies, and nothing wrong with being cordial about it.
Yeah, sometimes you leave a little more money on the table than intended. But unless you are absolutely sure you will never have to deal with that person or their family again, I recommend doing things this way.
Okay, I admit I lowball to cheeze off the sellers. But I also offer my best offer when I do it, so there might be a smidgen of a chance of getting it. But it is definitely lower than what our current market is out here, so just in case they say ‘aw, heck. Just take the offer’ I won’t get burned too badly.
I was raised Episcopalian. One thing that we didn’t do was go on and on about our faith. We were very leery of those who did.
Instead, we were taught the importance of doing things. Y’know, “Faith without works is dead.” (IIRC, that was St. James speaking.)
And, if that didn’t get you going and doing things, this from St. Matthew quote from the Book of Common Prayer probably did: “Let your light so shine before all men that they may see your good works and glorify your Father who is in heaven.”
Slim:
That is the way it should be. I do not go into any religious place unless i get paid for it. DJ or videotaping a wedding.
If I saw you were the happiest person i knew I would ask about your life and faith. And we could start there. That is all we non churchgoers ask.
For Muggy:
Skaneateles:
“There is one new closing this week which brings the year-to-date total to 39, just bursting to get to 40 when I will do a list. At this time last year there were only 20 closed properties!”
From Meg Brooks real estate blog, July 1st, 2009 entry
Interesting since a realtor in another lakefront town told her client/my friend sales have ground to a complete halt. Last week I was chatting w/another friend from that town who expressed the same sentiment. She knew quite a few sellers sitting on old and new homes and nothing was moving. I noticed this week now that school is over the high end home listings really excelerated.
The town we’re in now has had a spring like Skaneateles, buyers coming out of the woodwork for median priced and smaller homes. I’d really like to understand what’s behind all this tight concentration of buying. There’s a town I track to the north that had fantastic growth until ‘07 but now appears to be dying on the vine. Ya know what Skan and our town both have in common? Both are considered top school districts! I wonder if people are afraid to be in other districts w/the education cuts coming down the pike.
Skaneateles
I lived in upstate NY for seven years and could never figure out how to pronounce Skaneateles. The closest I came to getting it right was “skinny-attles”
I think it’s one of the secret handshakes that upstate NYers use to identify each other.
CarrieAnn - how do you pronounce “Skaneateles”?
Don’t know about Sister Carrie, but I always heard it “Scan-EE-at-a-lass”.
In those days of course, I did scan a few little lasses now and then. Boyzel be boyz ya know.
The average upstater says “skinny atlas”
I have heard older people say the first part with more of a subtle “scan” sound, but mostly “Skinny Atlas.” My wife was raised there, and we visit about 2x a year.
If I came across an inordinate amount of money, I would buy a lakefront home there. It’s my favorite place in the whole freaking world.
Hey Carrie, just checkin’ in quick (we’ll have to pick up another day), but yes, my wife just got back and her mom and my parents were saying middle and lower priced properties were selling.
My parents’ friends went on vacation while simultaneously listing their house. They had multiple offers before they even landed in Europe. That was really annoying to hear. I’ve said before, and I’ll say it again, upstate right now reminds me a lot of Florida 2006ish.
They still believe.
I noticed this week now that school is over the high end home listings really excelerated.
This is/has started nationally. Suddenly, quite a few parents are going to find a need to ‘downsize.’ I’m betting the smallest homes are the ones ’snapped up.’
I just blogged the areas I’m interested in. Inventory is down considerably. Gee… not getting wishing prices?
Got Popcorn?
Neil
http://tinyurl.com/Sold-ParkingSpotSellsFor-300k
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage agent Debra Sordillo told The Boston Globe that several residents of a building on Commonwealth Ave. bid for the coveted space, driving up what had been the original asking price of $250,000.
This may be a pending sale. Also, how exactly does a guy borrow $300k to purchase a parking spot? What lender would do this?
GREAT article from Vanity Fair - “The Hamptons Stress Test” (The author surveys the deals, no-deals, lawsuits, divorces, and teardowns that characterize this strange, dark season).
“The crash of Hamptons real estate has been widely chronicled of late, with unmistakable Schadenfreude, and since real estate in the Hamptons is the Hamptons, a distant reader might be forgiven for imagining life here had stopped altogether: hedge-fund managers on the Maidstone Club’s grass tennis courts frozen in mid-serve, the Friday-night crowd at Nick & Toni’s (Howard Schultz of Starbucks, developers Harry and Billy Macklowe, architect Charles Gwathmey, director Steven Spielberg) an eerily silent tableau vivant. It’s so bad that even the brokers have stopped trying to deny it. “It’s like trying to catch a falling knife,” says Mala Sander, of the Corcoran Group in Sag Harbor. “Listings that were $6 million last year which should have been $4 million, now they’re going for three and a half.”
OHHHHHHH! The humanity……!
*tries unsuccessfully to choke back the sobs *
“It’s so bad that even the brokers have stopped trying to deny it. ‘It’s like trying to catch a falling knife,’ says Mala Sander, of the Corcoran Group in Sag Harbor. ‘Listings that were $6 million last year which should have been $4 million, now they’re going for three and a half.’”
*****
Unfortunately, here in the land of cognitive dissonance, also known as San Franciso and Marin to realtors, one has yet to see any such of sort of public statement with regard to the market reality.
“Everything is worth what the purchaser will pay for it” Publilius Syrus. Just as true now as it was in 100BC. Just exactly WHY “should” it have been 4 million, then OR now? Of course what we’re in the process of discovering that is that everything is not neccesarily worth what the purchaser WILL AGREE to pay. Because all these defaults constitute purchasers who aren’t paying the price that they’ve agreed on.
“But something more fundamental than prices has dropped with the times. The outrushing of money from the Hamptons, like the outflow of water from Georgica Pond when the coastal barrier has been breached, has left a stench, like pond-bottom muck, of fear, anger, and quiet desperation. Titans have been brought low, fortunes lost, a world transformed. And through that muck, curling around one Hampton estate after another, is the slithering trail of Bernie Madoff”.
http://www.vanityfair.com/style/features/2009/07/hamptons200907
Oh, what a wonderful, delightful, in all ways enjoyable article. Thanks for the link.
I’ve got Steven Spielberg’s cellphone number (don’t ask).
Maybe I should call him and see how he’s doing?
YARRRRRR! Inquiring minds want to know!
Oh, yeah, and while you’ve got him, ask him what was with the last Indiana Jones movie? Translucent aliens on a merry-go-round?!
I almost barfed onto my feet when I watched that. I had to quickly turn away and drink more beer to settle my stomach.
Oly, your sympathy for the wealthy always brings a tear to my lil’ cheek.
Oly, your sympathy for the wealthy always brings a tear to my lil’ cheek.
Yar, I’m a gentle soul.
Also I’m patriotic! How about you? All stocked up for a merry 4th?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/01/AR2009070102063.html?referrer=emailarticle&ref=patrick.net
good news - treasury quietly increases loan to value - freaks
Combotechie would love this. Keep ‘em paying. All it means is that some FB can “refinance later,” as promised, and tie themselves to the house.
Meanwhile, the people who bought at the loosest standards won’t be able to afford any payment. They will have to walk, and eventually that house will be sold as a foreclosure and hopefully recorded as a sale. And those FB’s who refinanced will watch house prices (including theirs) drop anyway.
The only downside will be if the foreclosures don’t count toward comps.
Hey, the job market just took a turn for the worse according to CNN :
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The battered U.S. labor market took a step backwards last month as employers trimmed more jobs from their payrolls in June, according to a government report Thursday.
There was a net loss of 467,000 jobs in June, compared with a revised loss of 322,000 jobs in May. This was the first time in four months that the number of jobs lost rose from the prior month.
Somebody just shot my green shoots!
And I wouldn’t be surprised to see June’s data actually get worse. Isn’t there usually a revised (and more grim) report after the initial one is released?
Yes. Almost all data that might spook or thrill the markets/populace are reported as optimistically as possible. Greatest gains or smallest losses you can report, then revise it the less palatable number quietly next month. Augment the gains, minimize the losses, then ‘revise’ and repeat.
After dealing with a three week old for the past three weeks, I don’t think “green shoots” is a really good term to describe an economic recovery. It is something a little more…negative.
Just wait until you get to the ‘green spackle’ stage.
And seriously, green shoots are way better than the ‘black tar’ stage.
Thanks for reminding me about THAT !!!!!
My daughter blew a fart bubble the size of an extremely large cherry tomato in said tar-like substance. My wife didn’t believe me, so I made sure to show it to her after finishing the diaper change. And yes, it lasted until after the diaper change.
That is awesome!
My daughter blew a fart bubble the size of an extremely large cherry tomato in said tar-like substance. My wife didn’t believe me, so I made sure to show it to her after finishing the diaper change. And yes, it lasted until after the diaper change.
Once again I say it: I am extremely glad I am such an avid reader of Ben’s Blog. ‘Cause you just don’t get this exciting sort of detail anywhere else.
PS. What? You didn’t take a photo?
Oly, I am sorry, but I don’t believe there is photographic evidence of that particular poop. Strangely enough, there ARE photos of other poops. Being a parent does weird things to you.
Somebody remind me, what were the benefits of bearing children again?
You’ll have someone to clean up your green shoots for you in your old age.
Chile:
Good for you, you made it.
You probably got a lot of advice from the well-meaning on caring for the wee ones. If you are like me, ignore most of it.
My mother, who raised five kids and still knows how to dish at 85, did offer the best idea of all: “Sleep when the baby sleeps.”
Cleanup: You’re on your own.
But you probably already know that.
Thanks - I’m a napper, but mom isn’t. She’s still learning. All the free advice I get, the better…
How’s about: “baby sh*t gold”?
Everyone knows what color that is!
Shot? Don’t you mean incinerated your green shoots?
Genevievette Walker-Lightfoot, a former investigator at the Securities and Exchange Commission warned superiors as far back as 2004 about irregularities at Bernard L. Madoff’s financial management firm. She sent e-mails to a supervisor, saying information provided by Madoff during her review didn’t add up and suggesting a set of questions to ask his firm, documents show. Several of these questions directly challenged Madoff activities that much later turned out to be elements of his massive fraud. One of her supervisors was Eric Swanson, an assistant director of the department, who later married Madoff’s niece. That relationship is now under review by the agency’s inspector general.
Days later, another supervisor told her to focus on a different SEC probe.
Walker-Lightfoot left the SEC in 2006 after filing a complaint with the agency alleging that she’d been subjected to a hostile workplace. A person familiar with the complaint said it was settled in Walker-Lightfoot’s favor.
I think we’ve just found our Sherron Watkins. Or, if you prefer, our Colleen Rowley.
‘We’re in the Middle of a Crash’: Black Swan
The financial system is crashing and action must be taken by the US government to convert debt into equity to produce a more stable environment, Nassim Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” told CNBC Thursday.
“You may have green shoots, whatever you want to call them, you may have temporary relief, but you are still in a world that’s breaking,” Taleb said on “Squawk Box.”
Anything that’s fragile like the financial system will eventually crash, he said.
“We’re in the middle of a crash,” Taleb said. “So if I’m going to forecast something, it is that it’s going to get worse, not better.”
The government needs to deleverage debt and not try stimulus packages that will inflate assets, he said.
“What makes me very pessimistic in not seeing any leadership or awareness on parts of government on what has to be done, which is deleverage $40-to-$70 trillion,” Taleb said.
“The monkey on our back is debt,” he added.
action must be taken by the US government to convert debt into equity
Can anyone explain to me what this statement means? I think I know what it means, but I need to hear it from someone smarter than me…
“action must be taken by the US government to convert debt into equity
Can anyone explain to me what this statement means? I think I know what it means, but I need to hear it from someone smarter than me…”
Bankruptcy. Corporation is wilting on the vine because of crushing debt. Current equity holders are washed out. Debt holders are turned into equity holders (debt -> equity). Now the companies revenues can go to investment, dividends & payroll instead of debt payments.
“author of”
Well there’s -another- phrase that should send up red flags? Thanks Nassim, we get it. Boy do we get it.
Can’t these guys arrange for a choir director?
“The monkey on our back is debt,” he added.
That’s a true statement, and what are doing about it? Why adding on more debt of course! How’s that going to work out? Not to good.
All debts, public and private must be paid at some point. Or defaulted upon.
What do you think we’re doing? Running up the CC’s before we default. We’ve seen people do it a thousand times. Now it’s the government’s turn!
Of course you know what happens when governments default.
They tax the people all the more?
In theory, debt is paid back. In practice, long term debt is refinanced rather than paid back.
Bubba - I haven’t researched it - I wonder if that was true for a country that was on the gold standard at the time. I’d think the refinancing facilitator is the printing press.
http://tinyurl.com/kwpm92
‘GM Plans ‘Garage Sale’ for Toxic Plants, Golf Course (Update1)’
July 2 (Bloomberg) — As General Motors Corp. prepares to sell its best assets to a streamlined new entity, the worst of what it owns will be auctioned off in bankruptcy court, including contaminated factory sites, parking lots in Flint, Michigan, and a nine-hole golf course in New Jersey.
Oooh! I LOVE garage sales!
Except, oh, wait…I already have all the contaminated factory sites, parking lots and golf courses I want. (Which is ‘none’.)
Seriously, though, WHO is gonna buy this crap? It’s like rummage-sale table loaded with Beanie Babies or something…
Come now. I would love to own a golf course. Because then I could plant a giant wild garden where the golf course used to be and I could put a giant sign at the gates with a giant middle finger in the air that said “F**k you, golfer a-holes!”
Sounds aces to me.
Then the flyover geese would have a place to p00p without getting complaints from the country club set.
Tus ideas siempre son maravilloso!
(Your ideas are always marvelous!)
Truly, though, the image you present is a compelling one! Now I want a golf-course, too!
The one they’re unloading is in New Jersey. Do you still want it?
I like to golf nine holes. I suck at it, but I love being outside with my family and occasionally hitting it where I want it to go. I plan on golfing a lot when I retire.
I’m sure the government will find a way to buy it. Maybe they’ll find Jimmy Hoffa in one of those contaminated factories.
Maybe they’ll find Jimmy Hoffa in one of those contaminated factories. He’s somewhere in my garage, I’m sure.
The chinese often buy the factory equipment from our factories for theirs.
A roomate used to have an industrial robot arm. It was cool. Wouldn’t mind one myself if I had the room.
A roomate used to have an industrial robot arm. It was cool. Wouldn’t mind one myself if I had the room.
Ahhh…?
You know, VaBey-ey, when I read your comments I usually feel interested wonder combined with a vague unease.
( Just sayin’, that’s all. An idle observation. So don’t get mad and send your missile-guided Monster robot-slave to come zap me, okay? Okay.)
I used to buy cool odd computers from NASA Auctions, and a robot arm showed up at a local particle accelerator. So he bid on it, and won! $551 later, we had this in the garage:
users.757.org/~ethan/pics/geek/projects/American_Hero/Image61.jpg (no www)
He moved to Raleigh, got married, and still has it. He wrote software to run it.
(The picture shows one part, there is more support equipment that goes with it).
He moved to Raleigh, got married, and still has it. He wrote software to run it.
Very patient wife … or programmable diaper-changin’ robot arm?
Very patient wife … or programmable diaper-changin’ robot arm?
Haha! You beat me to it, ET.
Maybe he painted it nice and pink, and glued on a pretty wig!
Seriously, though, VaBey, you did not dispel my vague unease at all.
I’ll buy the golf course! Then as the owner I can set par on each hole to whatever I want. Let’s see, #1 is a 385 yard dogleg right with numerous traps protecting the green. Par 8 sounds about right. On a good day I’ll be able to birdie it!
I meant “drink and post” Oly. TEE HEE!!!
Hey Oly, do you think Officer Ben will write me up for “PUI” (actually, 2 beers)…:)
Hey Oly and everybody, used to race Prof Mot. What Cam Sinclair did (double flip off a ramp) is an exceptional example of athletic ability and luck.
I really couldn’t believe my eyes. Part of is nuts, equipment, youth, ability, and courage. Total package, that young man has…
Speaking of packages, where is the nearest package liquor store…
It’s like rummage-sale table loaded with Beanie Babies or something…
Hey, don’t knock those Beanie babies! We buy them regularly for our daughter. She loves them (they make noise when you shake them and are quite fun for a toddler). I hope people keep ‘collecting’ them! You know they are so cheap on e-bay right now… We’ve never paid more than 50% of suggested retail. (At most $5 with shipping, if its one we really want to watch our daughter destroy.)
Got Popcorn?
Neil
California sinking itself:
http://www.salon.com/opinion/kamiya/2009/07/02/california/index.html
re: Cali sinking itself
That Salon piece demonstrates that what passes for political thought has not yet caught up with what is happening on the ground in California.
The state is going broke because its government insists on spending more money than its people are willing or able to pay in taxes. It’s just that simple. When hard times come, people have to cut back. State revenues are way down because people are making less money and property prices are falling, thus less tax revenue is available. Yet the state government floats on through a dream world in which money grows on trees, and money trees grow to the sky.
Not just the state. Most Californians want the benefits, but don’t want to pay for them.
No tickee, no washee.
No money, no kitty cats either.
Salad: Thanks for providing us with a great piece of journalism. I’ve been following Cali. My former wife marrried a CEO of a software company in Sunnyvale.
Since my cocaine addiction 16 years ago, clean since then, seperated us, I always felt responsible for her every motion, move, relocation, health, accidents, etc.,… everafter. So, in short, I love him more than her for taking care of her.
I know the metaphysical overtones, and sorry for overemoting, but also consider the “but for” reasoning.
Anyway, full of common sense, and sociological overtones. Great article, and thanks again! She’s insulated, and that is just how I want. So, I can appreciate the reading more than I thought I could.
ATE
You are very welcome, ATE. I feel a bit baffled by the response to my previous post (I’m the token Liberal in my family) , so your kind words are very nice to read.
OH OH! I, (just a couple minutes ago), forgot scdave’s rule!! I posted while drinking!! His rule: “Don’t post and drink”. Got some smiles out of about 4-5 of us when he put that one up.
While J6P lines up for unemployment, the lowlife D.C. turds take to the skies, to far away places.
Congress’s Travel Tab Swells…
Spending on Taxpayer-Funded Trips Rises Tenfold; From Italy to the Galápagos: The Wall Street Journal, JULY 2, 2009
WASHINGTON — Spending by lawmakers on taxpayer-financed trips abroad has risen sharply in recent years, a Wall Street Journal analysis of travel records shows, involving everything from war-zone visits to trips to exotic spots such as the Galápagos Islands.
The spending on overseas travel is up almost tenfold since 1995, and has nearly tripled since 2001, according to the Journal analysis of 60,000 travel records. Hundreds of lawmakers traveled overseas in 2008 at a cost of about $13 million. That’s a 50% jump since Democrats took control of Congress two years ago.
The cost of so-called congressional delegations, known among lawmakers as “codels,” has risen nearly 70% since 2005, when an influence-peddling scandal led to a ban on travel funded by lobbyists, according to the data.
Lawmakers say that the trips are a good use of government funds because they allow members of Congress and their staff members to learn more about the world, inspect U.S. assets abroad and forge better working relationships with each other.
“…….forge better working relationships with each other.”
If that is an excuse, I might start taking all my co-workers to the local exotic entertainment establishments”
This type of behaviour has just about toppled the labor government in England. They use another word “expenses.”
Let’s see a list of the places they visit to “learn more about the world.” Let’s see how many go to Guinea-Bissau or East Timor or Mauritania rather than London or Paris or Singapore.
Found this - a partial answer:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124650399438184235.html
I’m starting to think that there are not enough hours or people in the news reporting business to keep track of all of the swindles going on…….the crooks are outnumbering the normal people.
That’s a good point X.
Was at an all-day class yesterday and Tuesday. Yesterday morning, I decided to enliven the ride to class by looking at real estate signs along the way. The stats:
Total distance pedaled: 4.51 miles
Total residential “for sale” signs: 6
Total commercial property “for sale” signs: 2 (including one that’s been up for sale for at least two years)
Dualies (aka residential properties that are for sale/for rent): 1 (Pproperty appears to be a rental investment gone bad — it’s being represented by an agency that specializes in short sales.)
Condos for sale: 1 (As indicated by broker’s sign at the edge of the complex — this sign’s been up for a couple of years. I also spotted another, smaller “for rent” sign.)
Projectus interruptus: 2 (These are condo conversion/construction projects gone bust-o. The condo conversion involved an old cinderblock apartment complex that’s been abandoned. The units are now falling apart and the graffiti taggers have been quite busy. Then there was what appeared to be an infill construction project that was halted. R-2 lots are now for sale.)
Projectus interruptus? Wayway funny.
Good enough for Ben’s Glossary of HBB terms!
The condo conversion looks so pitiful that I’m tempted to go back and photograph it. Sort of like the poster child for real estate fantasy projects gone bust in Tucson.
Is that Tyrangosourous (sp., I am sure) Rex’s first, or second, cousin?
Wish Oly was here, I’d ask HER how to spell Tyrangosourous.
WAS hilarious Slim!
In reading a new Cali. real estate sales pub recently, I saw something I never saw before, or had overlooked. There, next to a well-dressed UHS was the promise that she would “donate part of my commission to your favorite charity” if the reader buys.
Now, I like voluntarily giving to charity, putting it in the plate, helping Big Bros and Big Sisters, etc. Which is why I never appreciated the United Way’s formulation of what my “fair share” payroll reduction should be was back in my cubicle days, not so long ago, with the MSM. Had to sign a form and everything, which went to HR, and which I am sure was reviewed by mgmt. I digress. The point was a gift should be just that - not with so many strings attached.
I guess they will lower their transaction costs in a meaningful way, when, well, when American towns again are bolsered by robust manufacturing. Meaning it might take a w.h.i.l.e.
Let me get this straight; the United Way was trying get to you to agree to a payroll deduction, and your company supported this activity?
Wow. Just Wow. I would have written something truly nasty on the form before I sent it back to HR. Then I would have shorted the company’s stock in my 401K (which is not a bad idea in general as a hedge).
And I would certainly never do business with a UHS that pitched commission donations, simply because it’s almost certainly BS of one flavor or another.
I await the day when UHSs go the way of travel agents.
Sm landlord..
Yup, this was a common practice.
Another post may show up, seems to have been eaten.
I mentioned that “loaned executives” worked for United way and wanted the minions to donate fully so they looked good.
“…the promise that she would ‘donate part of my commission to your favorite charity’…”
It’s the “part” part that interests me. Reminds me of a phrase I hate, in context: “a fraction.” As in, “It’s a fraction of the original price.” 1/100th is a fraction and 99/100th is a fraction. “Part” can be a very small donation.
Yeah Chip, I know whatta mean. I mean, part of my liver still works, ya know?
ATE-UP - LOL - I’m workin’ on mine tonight. I hope it’s a medical miracle.
Depressions Take Time
By Bill Bonner
Everything is working out just like we thought it would. The stock market is performing as expected. The economy is on track. Even the politicians are doing what they thought they would.
Let’s begin with the stimulus/bailout/boondoggle/BS plan. As anticipated, it has failed. That is, the economy is getting worse, not better. It has failed the test set for it by its own creators. Back when the Obama Team was arguing for a big bailout bill, it warned that without a bailout, unemployment would rise above 8% in 2009. ‘Pass this bill today,’ said Ben Bernanke, or words to that effect, ‘or there may not be a tomorrow for the US economy.’
Congress dutifully bent its back to the task of adding boondoggles to the bill and then okayed the measure. And here we are, in the middle of 2009, and the unemployment rate is already at 9.4%.
Even at the time, it was obvious that the hacks in the administration had no idea what was going on. They were just guessing about the economy and taking advantage of the situation to pass out more money that taxpayers hadn’t even earned yet.
As predicted, the spending didn’t make the situation better; if anything, it probably made it worse – by delaying the process of destruction, and hence retarding the process of creative reconstruction too.
We recall our other forecast too: when the bailout doesn’t work, they’ll pass another one. And so, in yesterday’s New York Times, there is David Leonhardt urging the pols to even bigger acts of absurdity:
“The economy really may need more help,” he says.
Yes, it will need more help. Especially if it keeps getting the kind of help it’s been getting.
The stock market is acting more or less as we thought it would too. The big bounce began on the 9th of March. It’s been almost four months now…and the bounce should be getting near its peak…and beginning to fall again. Just look at a chart of the Dow since March. You’ll see exactly that. Like a cannonball, it went up…and now it seems to be arching over for its fall to the ground.
As stocks roll over, the economic news rolls over too.
Yesterday’s issue of USA Today featured a report that said small businesses are going broke faster than expected. Small businesses are supposed to be the survivors. Like mammals in the Ice Age, they replace the dinosaurs. In a recession, big, costly, inflexible companies are supposed to get hit the hardest…leaving niches for small, nimble, low-cost competitors to slip into. These small businesses establish toeholds during the recession…hire people…and then scale up to the peak of commerce when the boom comes.
But this time it’s different. Small businesses are collapsing along with big ones. In April, for example, more than small 8,000 businesses went broke and filed for Chapter 11.
In addition to the business bankruptcies are the personal bankruptcies. According to the Los Angeles Times, the rate of personal bankruptcy is soaring in Southern California.
In April, according to David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff, the feds added $121 million (at an annual rate) in total stimulus to the consumer economy – including tax reduction and increased benefits. In May, the total stimulus rose to $163 million. How come so many bankruptcies when the feds were giving away so much money?
The answer, says Rosenberg, is that consumers didn’t spend the money; they saved it. Consumer spending rose just $1 billion April – despite $121 billion of stimulus. In May it rose $25 billion – despite a ‘stimulus’ 6 times that amount.
Meanwhile, the saving rate, which had been only 0.2% in March of 2008 exploded to nearly 7% in May 2009.
No consumer spending, no sales. No sales, no revenues. No revenues…no one can stay in business.
No small businesses. No new jobs. No new jobs, no economic recovery.
No economic recovery and the meddlers are back on the Hill asking for more power and money.
No surprise there.
My guess is that the nature of small business has changed, more tanning salons, nick nack stores, restaurants ect. These aren’t going to lead you out of a depression. Small time manufacturing has been killed by offshore labor and are corporate capitalism that rewards the big companies at the expense of everyone else.
I’ve been noticing a trend among my Web development and design buddies, and that’s called “hire us.”
Long story short: The companies which have laid off the in-house staff have a “gosh-golly” realization. Which means that they need to hire someone to get the new website launched. And here we are, the freelancers, the git ‘er done people. So, they call us.
wmbz…..Did anybody really think that the same group that were around when the mess was created to begin with would come up with the right answers ? Does anyone think that Senate Hearings in which these clowns
question the culprits stands for proper investigations into the financial scandal of all time . The money could of been better spent ….I think we can all agree on that .
CNN wins the award for best title : “Taking a weed whacker to green shoots.”
It’s about the jobs report, of course. And maybe Michael Jackson.
Our Free?? Press at work
Washington Post publisher Katharine Weymouth said today she was canceling plans for an exclusive “salon” at her home where for as much as $250,000, the Post offered lobbyists and association executives off-the-record access to “those powerful few” — Obama administration officials, members of Congress, and even the paper’s own reporters and editors.
The astonishing offer was detailed in a flier circulated Wednesday to a health care lobbyist, who provided it to a reporter because the lobbyist said he felt it was a conflict for the paper to charge for access to, as the flier says, its “health care reporting and editorial staff.”
OT, and I’m sure people think that I sound like a stuck record, but…..things are really going to H E-double-hockey-sticks. I knew things were getting nuts, what with the FAA being bound by treaty into accepting whatever signoffs the Third World types cared to put out there, but…….
WFAA TV in Dallas is doing a series on San Antonio Aerospace, a major repair/overhaul center for the airlines. Several stories on their website.
Seems that they have been laying off US certified mechanics, and replacing them with Mexicans, Chileans, Puerto Ricans, Filipinos, etc. that have little or no experience and/or training, and charging them $3500/head to get them a work Visa and getting them into the country, to replace all the US workers they just laid off.
They can do this because under US regs, a “Repair Station” can fix anything they are certified to fix, as long as a US certified mechanic/QC Department inspects the work.
This system came about a long time ago, because there used to be a lot of guys coming out of the military who had documented training and experience, but did not have an A&P license. Additionally, the airline is supposed to inspect the work done by contractors. The system is being undermined by the anything-for-a-buck bunch
An airliner can have several thousand “work cards” that need signoffs on EVERY CARD, when it is getting a major “C” or “D” check. Anyone that says that Quality Control is there and observes the work performed on EVERY work card is a liar. This used to be okay, because you could inspect the finished job, you knew the guy was trained/had an A&P, and could ask him enough questions about how he did the job to detirmine if he knew what he was doing or not.
Just like the housing appraisal business, all this is being replaced by off-the-street Juan Seis-pack, who may/may not be able to read the manuals, who may/may not know what he is doing, whose work is being bought by someone more interested in the bottom line, than the quality of the work.
Every country has trained, experienced aviation maintenance people, but the US still does/used to do a lot of the maintenance on the worldwide aviation fleet, because compared to the rest of the world, we have/had a fairly high number of trained, certified and experienced maintenance personnel. IF THESE GUYS WERE TRAINED AND CERTIFIED, THEY WOULD HAVE A JOB IN THEIR HOME COUNTRIES.
You have Third World maintenance, pretty soon you are going to have Third World levels of errors/mistakes.
I’ll go back and sulk in my corner now………..
“I’ll go back and sulk in my corner now………..”
No need to, X-GS. I couldn’t agree with you more. This is one of the saddest things I’ve ever read. Makes me wonder if some of the recent, high-profile airplane tragedies have occurred as a result of this sort of thing.
Seven more banks failed today totaling around $300 million. How much money does the FDIC have left now?
http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/02/news/companies/bank_failure/index.htm
Wow and I thought they only worked on weekends. I guess they get the 4th of July off.
The California Franchise Tax Board announced today that it will stop accepting applications for the state-tax credit for new-home purchases at midnight tonight, July 2.
Oh gnoes!@#
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/pender/detail?entry_id=42972&tsp=1
X: “Juan Seis-pack”. Funny.
“We reject the assertion that we are inflators of bubbles and profiteers in busts, and we are painfully conscious of the importance in being a force for good.”
Goldman Sachs spokesman about that Matt Taibbi article.
If you ever wondered how all of this happen, just try to find someone who will turn down an income that is being funded by the government, either in the form of salary or a grant!
And the politicans know that you can’t find anyone who receives money that will want it stopped, so they try to find way to give more money to more people.
And people love it!
As long as they don’t have to pay the money, but let someone else pay it.
Just look at your city council, wherever you are, and watch they beg and plead for more money from the government.
Jack